Search results for: compartmental modelling approach

Authors: Arun Goel

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The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models, and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, weir, SVM, regression

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Authors: Omran M. Kenshel, Alan J. O'Connor

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Estimating the service life of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridge structures located in corrosive marine environments of a great importance to their owners/engineers. Traditionally, bridge owners/engineers relied more on subjective engineering judgment, e.g. visual inspection, in their estimation approach. However, because financial resources are often limited, rational calculation methods of estimation are needed to aid in making reliable and more accurate predictions for the service life of RC structures. This is in order to direct funds to bridges found to be the most critical. Criticality of the structure can be considered either form the Structural Capacity (i.e. Ultimate Limit State) or from Serviceability viewpoint whichever is adopted. This paper considers the service life of the structure only from the Structural Capacity viewpoint. Considering the great variability associated with the parameters involved in the estimation process, the probabilistic approach is most suited. The probabilistic modelling adopted here used Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the Reliability (i.e. Probability of Failure) of the structure under consideration. In this paper the authors used their own experimental data for the Correlation Length (CL) for the most important deterioration parameters. The CL is a parameter of the Correlation Function (CF) by which the spatial fluctuation of a certain deterioration parameter is described. The CL data used here were produced by analyzing 45 chloride profiles obtained from a 30 years old RC bridge located in a marine environment. The service life of the structure were predicted in terms of the load carrying capacity of an RC bridge beam girder. The analysis showed that the influence of SV is only evident if the reliability of the structure is governed by the Flexure failure rather than by the Shear failure.

Keywords: Chloride-induced corrosion, Monte-Carlo simulation, reinforced concrete, spatial variability

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Authors: Evangelos G. Ilias, Panagiotis G. Ilias, Vasileios T. Popotas

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The United Kingdom has one of the oldest railway networks in the world dating back to 1825 when the world’s first passenger railway was opened. The network has some 40,000 bridges of various construction types using a wide range of materials including masonry, steel, cast iron, wrought iron, concrete and timber. It is commonly accepted that the successful operation of the network is vital for the economy of the United Kingdom, consequently the cost effective maintenance of the existing infrastructure is a high priority to maintain the operability of the network, prevent deterioration and to extend the life of the assets. Every bridge on the railway network is required to be assessed every eighteen years and a structured approach to assessments is adopted with three main types of progressively more detailed assessments used. These assessment types include Level 0 (standardized spreadsheet assessment tools), Level 1 (analytical hand calculations) and Level 2 (generally finite element analyses). There is a degree of conservatism in the first two types of assessment dictated to some extent by the relevant standards which can lead to some structures not achieving the required load rating. In these situations, a Level 2 Assessment is often carried out using finite element analysis to uncover ‘latent strength’ and improve the load rating. If successful, the more sophisticated analysis can save on costly strengthening or replacement works and avoid disruption to the operational railway. This paper presents the ‘strengthening by assessment’ achieved by Level 2 analyses. The use of more accurate analysis assumptions and the implementation of non-linear modelling and functions (material, geometric and support) to better understand buckling modes and the structural behaviour of historic construction details that are not specifically covered by assessment codes are outlined. Metallic bridges which are susceptible to loss of section size through corrosion have largest scope for improvement by the Level 2 Assessment methodology. Three case studies are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of the sophisticated Level 2 Assessment methodology using finite element analysis against the conservative approaches employed for Level 0 and Level 1 Assessments. One rail overbridge and two rail underbridges that did not achieve the required load rating by means of a Level 1 Assessment due to the inadequate restraint provided by U-Frame action are examined and the increase in assessed capacity given by the Level 2 Assessment is outlined.

Keywords: assessment, bridges, buckling, finite element analysis, non-linear modelling, strengthening

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Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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Authors: Mounia El Hafyani, Khalid El Himdi

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Precipitation is one of the key variables in water resource planning. The importance of modeling wet and dry durations is a crucial pointer in engineering hydrology. The objective of this study is to model and analyze the distribution of wet and dry durations. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data from 1967 to 2017 of the Moroccan city of Kenitra’s station are used. Three models are implemented for the distribution of wet and dry durations, namely the first-order Markov chain, the second-order Markov chain, and the truncated negative binomial law. The adherence of the data to the proposed models is evaluated using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The Akaike information criterion is applied to assess the most effective model distribution. We go further and study the law of the number of wet and dry days among k consecutive days. The calculation of this law is done through an algorithm that we have implemented based on conditional laws. We complete our work by comparing the observed moments of the numbers of wet/dry days among k consecutive days to the calculated moment of the three estimated models. The study shows the effectiveness of our approach in modeling wet and dry durations of daily precipitation.

Keywords: Markov chain, rainfall, truncated negative binomial law, wet and dry durations

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Authors: Asadullah Sheikh, Kerry Barnett, Paul Ayres

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Despite significant progress in access, equity and public examination success, poor student performance in mathematics in secondary schools has become a major concern in Bangladesh. A substantial body of research has emphasised the important contribution of teaching practices to student achievement. However, this has not been investigated in Bangladesh. Therefore, the study sought to find out the effectiveness of mathematics teaching practices as a means of improving secondary school mathematics in Dhaka Municipality City (DMC) area, Bangladesh. The purpose of this study was twofold, first, to identify the 20 highest performing secondary schools in mathematics in DMC, and second, to investigate the teaching practices of mathematics teachers in these schools. A two-phase mixed method approach was adopted. In the first phase, secondary source data were obtained from the Board of Intermediate and Secondary Education (BISE), Dhaka and value-added measures used to identify the 20 highest performing secondary schools in mathematics. In the second phase, a concurrent mixed method design, where qualitative methods were embedded within a dominant quantitative approach was utilised. A purposive sampling strategy was used to select fifteen teachers from the 20 highest performing secondary schools. The main sources of data were classroom teaching observations, and teacher interviews. The data from teacher observations were analysed with descriptive and nonparametric statistics. The interview data were analysed qualitatively. The main findings showed teachers adopt a direct teaching approach which incorporates orientation, structuring, modelling, practice, questioning and teacher-student interaction that creates an individualistic learning environment. The variation in developmental levels of teaching skill indicate that teachers do not necessarily use the qualitative (i.e., focus, stage, quality and differentiation) aspects of teaching behaviours effectively. This is the first study to investigate teaching behaviours of effective secondary mathematics teachers within Dhaka, Bangladesh. It contributes in an international dimension to the field of educational effectiveness and raise questions about existing constructivist approaches. Further, it contributes to important insights about teaching behaviours that can be used to inform the development of evidence-based policy and practice on quality teaching in Bangladesh.

Keywords: effective teaching, mathematics, secondary schools, student achievement, value-added measures

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Mohammad H. Almomani

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In this paper, we argue the effect of the initial sample size, and the increment in simulation samples on the performance of a sequential approach that used in selecting the top m designs when the number of alternative designs is very large. The sequential approach consists of two stages. In the first stage the ordinal optimization is used to select a subset that overlaps with the set of actual best k% designs with high probability. Then in the second stage the optimal computing budget is used to select the top m designs from the selected subset. We apply the selection approach on a generic example under some parameter settings, with a different choice of initial sample size and the increment in simulation samples, to explore the impacts on the performance of this approach. The results show that the choice of initial sample size and the increment in simulation samples does affect the performance of a selection approach.

Keywords: Large Scale Problems, Optimal Computing Budget Allocation, ordinal optimization, simulation optimization

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Authors: Karen C. Olufokunbi, Odetunji A. Odejobi

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The discourse of this paper is the examination of the generation, accumulation and growth of e-waste in a developing country. Images and other data about computer e-waste were collected using a digital camera, 290 copies of questionnaire and three structured interviews using Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Nigeria environment as a case study. The numerical data were analysed using R data analysis and process tool. Automata-based techniques and Petri net modeling tool were used to design and simulate a computational model for the recovery of saleable materials from e-waste. The R analysis showed that at a 95 percent confidence level, the computer equipment that will be disposed by 2020 will be 417 units. Compared to the 800 units in circulation in 2014, 50 percent of personal computer components will become e-waste. This indicates that personal computer components were in high demand due to their low costs and will be disposed more rapidly when replaced by new computer equipment Also, 57 percent of the respondents discarded their computer e-waste by throwing it into the garbage bin or by dumping it. The simulated model using Coloured Petri net modelling tool for the process showed that the e-waste dynamics is a forward sequential process in the form of a pipeline meaning that an e-waste recovery of saleable materials process occurs in identifiable discrete stages indicating that e-waste will continue to accumulate and grow in volume with time.

Keywords: Coloured Petri net, computational modelling, electronic waste, electronic waste process dynamics

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Authors: Dehni Abdellatif, Lounis Mourad

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The new approach of applied spatial geostatistics in materials sciences, agriculture accuracy, agricultural statistics, permitted an apprehension of managing and monitoring the water and groundwater qualities in a relationship with salt-affected soil. The anterior experiences concerning data acquisition, spatial-preparation studies on optical and multispectral data has facilitated the integration of correction models of electrical conductivity related with soils temperature (horizons of soils). For tomography apprehension, this physical parameter has been extracted from calibration of the thermal band (LANDSAT ETM+6) with a radiometric correction. Our study area is Oran region (Northern West of Algeria). Different spectral indices are determined such as salinity and sodicity index, the Combined Spectral Reflectance Index (CSRI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emissivity, Albedo, and Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR). The approach of geostatistical modeling of electrical conductivity (salinity), appears to be a useful decision support system for estimating corrected electrical resistivity related to the temperature of surface soils, according to the conversion models by substitution, the reference temperature at 25°C (where hydrochemical data are collected with this constraint). The Brightness temperatures extracted from satellite reflectance (LANDSAT ETM+) are used in consistency models to estimate electrical resistivity. The confusions that arise from the effects of salt stress and water stress removed followed by seasonal application of the geostatistical analysis in Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques investigation and monitoring the variation of the electrical conductivity in the alluvial aquifer of Es-Sénia for the salt-affected soil.

Keywords: geostatistical modelling, landsat, brightness temperature, conductivity

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Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

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Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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Authors: Ngoc Trung Ngo, Buddhima Indraratna, Cholachat Rujikiathmakjornr

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For several hundred years, the design of railway tracks has practically remained unchanged. Traditionally, rail tracks are placed on a ballast layer due to several reasons, including economy, rapid drainage, and high load bearing capacity. The primary function of ballast is to distributing dynamic track loads to sub-ballast and subgrade layers, while also providing lateral resistance and allowing for rapid drainage. Upon repeated trainloads, the ballast becomes fouled due to ballast degradation and the intrusion of fines which adversely affects the strength and deformation behaviour of ballast. This paper presents the use of three-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) in studying the shear behaviour of the fouled ballast subjected to direct shear loading. Irregularly shaped particles of ballast were modelled by grouping many spherical balls together in appropriate sizes to simulate representative ballast aggregates. Fouled ballast was modelled by injecting a specified number of miniature spherical particles into the void spaces. The DEM simulation highlights that the peak shear stress of the ballast assembly decreases and the dilation of fouled ballast increases with an increase level of fouling. Additionally, the distributions of contact force chain and particle displacement vectors were captured during shearing progress, explaining the formation of shear band and the evolutions of volumetric change of fouled ballast.

Keywords: railway ballast, coal fouling, discrete element modelling, discrete element method

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Authors: Z. Babic, I. Veza, A. Balic, M. Crnjac

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The linear programming model is sometimes difficult to apply in real business situations due to its assumption of proportionality. This paper shows an example of how to use De Novo programming approach instead of linear programming. In the De Novo programming, resources are not fixed like in linear programming but resource quantities depend only on available budget. Budget is a new, important element of the De Novo approach. Two different production situations are presented: increasing costs and quantity discounts of raw materials. The focus of this paper is on advantages of the De Novo approach in the optimization of production plan for production company which produces souvenirs made from famous stone from the island of Brac, one of the greatest islands from Croatia.

Keywords: business process, De Novo programming, optimizing, production

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Authors: Olaf Visker, Arnout De Vries, Lambert Schomaker

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Predictive policing refers to the usage of analytical techniques to identify potential criminal activity. It has been widely implemented by various police departments. Being a relatively new area of research, there are, to the author’s knowledge, no absolute tried, and true methods and they still exhibit a variety of potential problems. One of those problems is closely related to the lack of understanding of how acting on these prediction influence crime itself. The goal of law enforcement is ultimately crime reduction. As such, a policy needs to be established that best facilitates this goal. This research aims to find such a policy by using adversarial agent-based modeling in combination with modern reinforcement learning techniques. It is presented here that a baseline model for both law enforcement and criminal agents and compare their performance to their respective reinforcement models. The experiments show that our smart law enforcement model is capable of reducing crime by making more deliberate choices regarding the locations of potential criminal activity. Furthermore, it is shown that the smart criminal model presents behavior consistent with popular crime theories and outperforms the baseline model in terms of crimes committed and time to capture. It does, however, still suffer from the difficulties of capturing long term rewards and learning how to handle multiple opposing goals.

Keywords: adversarial, agent based modelling, predictive policing, reinforcement learning

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Authors: Kavitha Madhu, Karthik K. Srinivasan, R. Sivanandan

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Indian traffic can be considered as mixed and heterogeneous due to the presence of various types of vehicles that operate with weak lane discipline. Consequently, vehicles can position themselves anywhere in the traffic stream depending on availability of gaps. The choice of lateral positioning is an important component in representing and characterizing mixed traffic. The field data provides evidence that the trajectory of vehicles in Indian urban roads have significantly varying longitudinal and lateral components. Further, the notion of headway which is widely used for homogeneous traffic simulation is not well defined in conditions lacking lane discipline. From field data it is clear that following is not strict as in homogeneous and lane disciplined conditions and neighbouring vehicles ahead of a given vehicle and those adjacent to it could also influence the subject vehicles choice of position, speed and acceleration. Given these empirical features, the suitability of using headway distributions to characterize mixed traffic in Indian cities is questionable, and needs to be modified appropriately. To address these issues, this paper attempts to analyze the time gap distribution between consecutive vehicles (in a time-sense) crossing a section of roadway. More specifically, to characterize the complex interactions noted above, the influence of composition, manoeuvre types, and lateral placement characteristics on time gap distribution is quantified in this paper. The developed model is used for evaluating various performance measures such as link speed, midblock delay and intersection delay which further helps to characterise the vehicular fuel consumption and emission on urban roads of India. Identifying and analyzing exact interactions between various classes of vehicles in the traffic stream is essential for increasing the accuracy and realism of microscopic traffic flow modelling. In this regard, this study aims to develop and analyze time gap distribution models and quantify it by lead lag pair, manoeuvre type and lateral position characteristics in heterogeneous non-lane based traffic. Once the modelling scheme is developed, this can be used for estimating the vehicle kilometres travelled for the entire traffic system which helps to determine the vehicular fuel consumption and emission. The approach to this objective involves: data collection, statistical modelling and parameter estimation, simulation using calibrated time-gap distribution and its validation, empirical analysis of simulation result and associated traffic flow parameters, and application to analyze illustrative traffic policies. In particular, video graphic methods are used for data extraction from urban mid-block sections in Chennai, where the data comprises of vehicle type, vehicle position (both longitudinal and lateral), speed and time gap. Statistical tests are carried out to compare the simulated data with the actual data and the model performance is evaluated. The effect of integration of above mentioned factors in vehicle generation is studied by comparing the performance measures like density, speed, flow, capacity, area occupancy etc under various traffic conditions and policies. The implications of the quantified distributions and simulation model for estimating the PCU (Passenger Car Units), capacity and level of service of the system are also discussed.

Keywords: lateral movement, mixed traffic condition, simulation modeling, vehicle following models

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Authors: André Python

Abstract:

To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Eric York, James Tadio, Silas Owusu Antwi

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Laundry wastewater contains a diverse range of chemical pollutants that can have detrimental effects on human health and the environment. In this study, simulation studies by Spyder Python software v 3.2 to assess the efficacy of biochar in removing PO₄³⁻ from wastewater were conducted. Through modeling and simulation, the mechanisms involved in the adsorption process of phosphate by biochar were studied by altering variables which is specific to the phosphate from common laundry phosphate detergents, such as the aqueous solubility, initial concentration, and temperature using the Dudinin Approach (DA). Results showed that the concentration equilibrate at near the highest concentrations for Sugar beet-120 mgL⁻¹, Tailing-85 mgL⁻¹, CaO- rich-50 mgL⁻¹, Eggshell and rice straw-48 mgL⁻¹, Undaria Pinnatifida Roots-190 mgL⁻¹, Ca-Alginate Granular Beads -240 mgL⁻¹, Laminaria Japonica Powder -900 mgL⁻¹, Pinesaw dust-57 mgL⁻¹, Ricehull-190 mgL⁻¹, sesame straw- 470 mgL⁻¹, Sugar Bagasse-380 mgL⁻¹, Miscanthus Giganteus-240 mgL⁻¹, Wood Bc-130 mgL⁻¹, Pine-25 mgL⁻¹, Sawdust-6.8 mgL⁻¹, Sewage Sludge-, Rice husk-12 mgL⁻¹, Corncob-117 mgL⁻¹, Maize straw- 1800 mgL⁻¹ while Peanut -Eucalyptus polybractea-, Crawfish equilibrated at near concentration. CO₂ activated Thalia, sewage sludge biochar, Broussonetia Papyrifera Leaves equilibrated just at the lower concentration. Only Soyer bean Stover exhibited a sharp rise and fall peak in mid-concentration at 2 mgL⁻¹ volume. The modelling results were consistent with experimental findings from the literature, ensuring the accuracy, repeatability, and reliability of the simulation study. The simulation study provided insights into adsorption for PO₄³⁻ from wastewater by biochar using concentration per volume that can be adsorbed ideally under the given conditions. Studies showed that applying the principle experimentally in real wastewater with all its complexity is warranted and not far-fetched.

Keywords: simulation studies, phosphate removal, biochar, adsorption, wastewater treatment

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Authors: Arash Najmaei, Jo Rhodes, Peter Lok, Zahra Sadeghinejad

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In this article, we endeavor to explore how a new business model comes into existence in the Australian cloud-computing eco-system. Findings from multiple case study methodology reveal that to develop a business model new ventures adopt a three-phase approach. In the first phase, labelled as business model ideation (BMID) various ideas for a viable business model are generated from both internal and external networks of the entrepreneurial team and the most viable one is chosen. Strategic consensus and commitment are generated in the second phase. This phase is a business modelling strategic action phase. We labelled this phase as business model strategic commitment (BMSC) because through commitment and the subsequent actions of executives resources are pooled, coordinated and allocated to the business model. Three complementary sets of resources shape the business model: managerial (MnRs), marketing (MRs) and technological resources (TRs). The third phase is the market-test phase where the business model is reified through the delivery of the intended value to customers and conversion of revenue into profit. We labelled this phase business model actualization (BMAC). Theoretical and managerial implications of these findings will be discussed and several directions for future research will be illuminated.

Keywords: entrepreneur business model, high-tech venture, resources, conversion of revenue

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Authors: Rahma Amri, Narjès Bellamine Ben Saoud

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Sustainable development or sustainability is one of the most urgent issues in actual debate in almost domains. Particularly the significant way the software pervades our live should make it in the center of sustainability concerns. The social aspects of sustainability haven’t been well studied in the context of software systems and still immature research field that needs more interest among researchers’ community. This paper presents a Goal-Question-Metric based approach to assess social sustainability of software systems. The approach is based on a generic social sustainability model taken from Social sciences.

Keywords: software assessment approach, social sustainability, goal-question-metric paradigm, software project metrics

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Authors: C. Matasane, C. Dwarika, R. Naidoo

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The mathematical analysis on radiation obtained and the development of the solar photovoltaic (PV) array groundwater pumping is needed in the rural areas of Thohoyandou, Limpopo Province for sizing and power performance subject to the climate conditions within the area. A simple methodology approach is developed for the directed coupled solar, controller and submersible ground water pump system. The system consists of a PV array, pump controller and submerged pump, battery backup and charger controller. For this reason, the theoretical solar radiation obtained for optimal predictions and system performance in order to achieve different design and operating parameters. Here the examination of the PV schematic module in a Direct Current (DC) application is used for obtainable maximum solar power energy for water pumping. In this paper, a simple efficient photovoltaic water pumping system is presented with its theoretical studies and mathematical modeling of photovoltaics (PV) system.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, solar groundwater pumping, theoretical and mathematical analysis of photovoltaic (PV) system, theoretical solar radiation

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Authors: B. Almassri, F. Almahmoud, R. Francois

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Near surface mounted reinforcement (NSM) technique is one of the promising techniques used nowadays to strengthen reinforced concrete (RC) structures. In the NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves and are bonded to the concrete with epoxy adhesive. This paper studies the non-classical mode of failure ‘the separation of concrete cover’ according to experimental and numerical FE modelling results. Experimental results and numerical modelling results of a 3D finite element (FE) model using the commercial software Abaqus and 2D FE model FEMIX were obtained on two beams, one corroded (25 years of corrosion procedure) and one control (A1CL3-R and A1T-R) were each repaired in bending using NSM CFRP rod and were then tested up to failure. The results showed that the NSM technique increased the overall capacity of control and corroded beams despite a non-classical mode of failure with separation of the concrete cover occurring in the corroded beam due to damage induced by corrosion. Another FE model used external steel stirrups around the repaired corroded beam A1CL3-R which failed with the separation of concrete cover, this model showed a change in the mode of failure form a non-classical mode of failure by the separation of concrete cover to the same mode of failure of the repaired control beam by the crushing of compressed concrete.

Keywords: corrosion, repair, Reinforced Concrete, FEM, CFRP, FEMIX

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Authors: Gómez R. Marta, Martín M. Jesús María

Abstract:

The general aim of this paper identifies the areas of highest concentration of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) around the incinerator through the use of dispersion models. Atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for estimating and prevent the impact of emissions from a particular source in air quality. These models allow considering different factors that influence in air pollution: source characteristics, the topography of the receiving environment and weather conditions to predict the pollutants concentration. The PCDD/Fs, after its emission into the atmosphere, are deposited on water or land, near or far from emission source depending on the size of the associated particles and climatology. In this way, they are transferred and mobilized through environmental compartments. The modelling of PCDD/Fs was carried out with following tools: Atmospheric Dispersion Model Software (ADMS) and Surfer. ADMS is a dispersion model Gaussian plume, used to model the impact of air quality industrial facilities. And Surfer is a program of surfaces which is used to represent the dispersion of pollutants on a map. For the modelling of emissions, ADMS software requires the following input parameters: characterization of emission sources (source type, height, diameter, the temperature of the release, flow rate, etc.) meteorological and topographical data (coordinate system), mainly. The study area was set at 5 Km around the incinerator and the first population center nearest to focus PCDD/Fs emission is about 2.5 Km, approximately. Data were collected during one year (2013) both PCDD/Fs emissions of the incinerator as meteorology in the study area. The study has been carried out during period's average that legislation establishes, that is to say, the output parameters are taking into account the current legislation. Once all data required by software ADMS, described previously, are entered, and in order to make the representation of the spatial distribution of PCDD/Fs concentration and the areas affecting them, the modelling was proceeded. In general, the dispersion plume is in the direction of the predominant winds (Southwest and Northeast). Total levels of PCDD/Fs usually found in air samples, are from <2 pg/m3 for remote rural areas, from 2-15 pg/m3 in urban areas and from 15-200 pg/m3 for areas near to important sources, as can be an incinerator. The results of dispersion maps show that maximum concentrations are the order of 10-8 ng/m3, well below the values considered for areas close to an incinerator, as in this case.

Keywords: atmospheric dispersion, dioxin, furan, incinerator

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Lillie Dewan

Abstract:

The study of complex dynamic systems has advanced through various scientific approaches with the help of computer modeling. The common design trends in aerospace system design can be applied to quadcopter design. A quadcopter is a nonlinear, under-actuated system with complex aerodynamics parameters and creates challenges that demand new, robust, and effective control approaches. The flight control stability can be improved by planning and tracking the trajectory and reducing the effect of sensors and the operational environment. This paper presents a modern design Simmechanics visual modeling approach for a mechanical model of a quadcopter with three degrees of freedom. The Simmechanics model, considering inertia, mass, and geometric properties of a dynamic system, produces multiple translation and rotation maneuvers. The proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controller is integrated with the Simmechanics model to follow a predefined quadcopter rotational trajectory for a fixed time interval. The results presented are satisfying. The simulation of the quadcopter control performed operations successfully.

Keywords: nonlinear system, quadcopter model, simscape modelling, proportional-integral-derivative controller

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Authors: B. SahaRoy, T. Medhi, S. C. Saha

Abstract:

To understand the friction stir welding process, it is very important to know the nature of the material flow in and around the tool. The process is a combination of both thermal as well as mechanical work i.e it is a coupled thermo-mechanical process. Numerical simulations are very much essential in order to obtain a complete knowledge of the process as well as the physics underlying it. In the present work a model based approach is adopted in order to study material flow. A thermo-mechanical based CFD model is developed using a Finite Element package, Comsol Multiphysics. The fluid flow analysis is done. The model simultaneously predicts shear strain fields, shear strain rates and shear stress over the entire workpiece for the given conditions. The flow fields generated by the streamline plot give an idea of the material flow. The variation of dynamic viscosity, velocity field and shear strain fields with various welding parameters is studied. Finally the result obtained from the above mentioned conditions is discussed elaborately and concluded.

Keywords: AA6061-T6, CFD modelling, friction stir welding, material flow

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Authors: M. Okeke, A. Blyth

Abstract:

Industrial Control Systems (ICS) such as Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) can be seen in many different critical infrastructures, from nuclear management to utility, medical equipment, power, waste and engine management on ships and planes. The role SCADA plays in critical infrastructure has resulted in a call to secure them. Many lives depend on it for daily activities and the attack vectors are becoming more sophisticated. Hence, the security of ICS is vital as malfunction of it might result in huge risk. This paper describes how the application of Prey Predator (PP) approach in flocks of birds could enhance the detection of malicious activities on ICS. The PP approach explains how these animals in groups or flocks detect predators by following some simple rules. They are not necessarily very intelligent animals but their approach in solving complex issues such as detection through corporation, coordination and communication worth emulating. This paper will emulate flocking behavior seen in birds in detecting predators. The PP approach will adopt six nearest bird approach in detecting any predator. Their local and global bests are based on the individual detection as well as group detection. The PP algorithm was designed following MapReduce methodology that follows a Split Detection Convergence (SDC) approach.

Keywords: artificial life, industrial control system (ICS), IDS, prey predator (PP), SCADA, SDC

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Authors: Varun Dongre, Stefan Pirker, Stefan Heinrich

Abstract:

Over the last decades, the numerical modelling of fluidized bed processes has become feasible even for industrial processes. Commonly, continuous two-fluid models are applied to describe large-scale fluidization. In order to allow for coarse grids novel two-fluid models account for unresolved sub-grid heterogeneities. However, computational efforts remain high – in the order of several hours of compute-time for a few seconds of real-time – thus preventing the representation of long-term phenomena such as heating or particle conversion processes. In order to overcome this limitation, data-based recurrence computational fluid dynamics (rCFD) has been put forward in recent years. rCFD can be regarded as a data-based method that relies on the numerical predictions of a conventional short-term simulation. This data is stored in a database and then used by rCFD to efficiently time-extrapolate the flow behavior in high spatial resolution. This study will compare the numerical predictions of rCFD simulations with those of corresponding full CFD reference simulations for lab-scale and pilot-scale fluidized beds. In assessing the predictive capabilities of rCFD simulations, we focus on solid mixing and secondary gas holdup. We observed that predictions made by rCFD simulations are highly sensitive to numerical parameters such as diffusivity associated with face swaps. We achieved a computational speed-up of four orders of magnitude (10,000 time faster than classical TFM simulation) eventually allowing for real-time simulations of fluidized beds. In the next step, we apply the checkerboarding technique by introducing gas tracers subjected to convection and diffusion. We then analyze the concentration profiles by observing mixing, transport of gas tracers, insights about the convective and diffusive pattern of the gas tracers, and further towards heat and mass transfer methods. Finally, we run rCFD simulations and calibrate them with numerical and physical parameters compared with convectional Two-fluid model (full CFD) simulation. As a result, this study gives a clear indication of the applicability, predictive capabilities, and existing limitations of rCFD in the realm of fluidization modelling.

Keywords: multiphase flow, recurrence CFD, two-fluid model, industrial processes

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Authors: Bibhuti Bhusan Sahoo, Ramakar Jha

Abstract:

Mapping of the extreme events (droughts) is one of the adaptation strategies to consequences of increasing climatic inconsistency and climate alterations. There is no operational practice to forecast the drought. One of the suggestions is to update mapping of drought prone areas for developmental planning. Drought indices play a significant role in drought mitigation. Many scientists have worked on different statistical analysis in drought and other climatological hazards. Many researchers have studied droughts individually for different sub-divisions or for India. Very few workers have studied district wise probabilities over large scale. In the present study, district wise drought probabilities over KBK (Kalahandi-Balangir-Koraput) districts of Odisha, India, Which are seriously prone to droughts, has been established using Hydrological drought index and Meteorological drought index along with the remote sensing drought indices to develop a multidirectional approach in the field of drought mitigation. Mapping for moderate and severe drought probabilities for KBK districts has been done and regions belonging different class intervals of probabilities of drought have been demarcated. Such type of information would be a good tool for planning purposes, for input in modelling and better promising results can be achieved.

Keywords: drought indices, KBK districts, proposed drought severity index, SPI

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Authors: L. Al Ahmad, C. Latrille, D. Hainos, D. Blanc, M. Clausse

Abstract:

A two-dimensional finite volume axisymmetric model is developed to predict the simultaneous heat and mass transfers during the drying of industrial sludge. The simulations were run using COMSOL-Multiphysics 3.5a. The input parameters of the numerical model were acquired from a preliminary experimental work. Results permit to establish correlations describing the evolution of the various parameters as a function of the drying temperature and the sludge water content. The selection and coupling of the equation are validated based on the drying kinetics acquired experimentally at a temperature range of 45-65 °C and absolute pressure range of 200-1000 mbar. The model, incorporating the heat and mass transfer mechanisms at different operating conditions, shows simulated values of temperature and water content. Simulated results are found concordant with the experimental values, only at the first and last drying stages where sludge shrinkage is insignificant. Simulated and experimental results show that sludge drying is favored at high temperatures and low pressure. As experimentally observed, the drying time is reduced by 68% for drying at 65 °C compared to 45 °C under 1 atm. At 65 °C, a 200-mbar absolute pressure vacuum leads to an additional reduction in drying time estimated by 61%. However, the drying rate is underestimated in the intermediate stage. This rate underestimation could be improved in the model by considering the shrinkage phenomena that occurs during sludge drying.

Keywords: industrial sludge drying, heat transfer, mass transfer, mathematical modelling

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Authors: Sarisa Pinkham, Kanyarat Bussaban

Abstract:

The research aims to approximate the amount of daily rainfall by using a pixel value data approach. The daily rainfall maps from the Thailand Meteorological Department in period of time from January to December 2013 were the data used in this study. The results showed that this approach can approximate the amount of daily rainfall with RMSE=3.343.

Keywords: daily rainfall, image processing, approximation, pixel value data

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Authors: Nadim Zgheib, Sivaramakrishnan Balachandar

Abstract:

We present results on the initial formation of ripples from an initially flattened erodible bed. We use direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent open channel flow over a fixed sinusoidal bed coupled with hydrodynamic stability analysis. We use the direct forcing immersed boundary method to account for the presence of the sediment bed. The resolved flow provides the bed shear stress and consequently the sediment transport rate, which is needed in the stability analysis of the Exner equation. The approach is different from traditional linear stability analysis in the sense that the phase lag between the bed topology, and the sediment flux is obtained from the DNS. We ran 11 simulations at a fixed shear Reynolds number of 180, but for different sediment bed wavelengths. The analysis allows us to sweep a large range of physical and modelling parameters to predict their effects on linear growth. The Froude number appears to be the critical controlling parameter in the early linear development of ripples, in contrast with the dominant role of particle Reynolds number during the equilibrium stage.

Keywords: direct numerical simulation, immersed boundary method, sediment-bed interactions, turbulent multiphase flow, linear stability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 175