Search results for: shrinkage regression

Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

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Machine learning regression methods are recommended as an alternative to classical regression methods in the existence of variables which are difficult to model. Data for health expenditure is typically non-normal and have a heavily skewed distribution. This study aims to compare machine learning regression methods by hyperparameter tuning to predict health expenditure per capita. A multiple regression model was conducted and performance results of Lasso Regression, Random Forest Regression and Support Vector Machine Regression recorded when different hyperparameters are assigned. Lambda (λ) value for Lasso Regression, number of trees for Random Forest Regression, epsilon (ε) value for Support Vector Regression was determined as hyperparameters. Study results performed by using 'k' fold cross validation changed from 5 to 50, indicate the difference between machine learning regression results in terms of R², RMSE and MAE values that are statistically significant (p < 0.001). Study results reveal that Random Forest Regression (R² ˃ 0.7500, RMSE ≤ 0.6000 ve MAE ≤ 0.4000) outperforms other machine learning regression methods. It is highly advisable to use machine learning regression methods for modelling health expenditures.

Keywords: machine learning, lasso regression, random forest regression, support vector regression, hyperparameter tuning, health expenditure

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Authors: Sonam Behl, Raju, Ginu Rajan, Paul Farrar, B. Gangadhara Prusty

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Reinforcing dental composites with micro-sized fibres can significantly improve the physio-mechanical properties of dental composites. The short fibres can be oriented randomly within dental composites, thus providing quasi-isotropic reinforcing efficiency unlike unidirectional/bidirectional fibre reinforced composites enhancing anisotropic properties. Thus, short fibres reinforced dental composites are getting popular among practitioners. However, despite their popularity, resin-based dental composites are prone to failure on account of shrinkage during photo polymerisation. The shrinkage in the structure may lead to marginal gap formation, causing secondary caries, thus ultimately inducing failure of the restoration. The traditional methods to evaluate polymerisation shrinkage using strain gauges, density-based measurements, dilatometer, or bonded-disk focuses on average value of volumetric shrinkage. Moreover, the results obtained from traditional methods are sensitive to the specimen geometry. The present research aims to evaluate the real-time shrinkage strain at selected locations in the material with the help of optical fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensors. Due to the miniature size (diameter 250 µm) of FBG sensors, they can be easily embedded into small samples of dental composites. Furthermore, an FBG array into the system can map the real-time shrinkage strain at different regions of the composite. The evaluation of real-time monitoring of shrinkage values may help to optimise the physio-mechanical properties of composites. Previously, FBG sensors have been able to rightfully measure polymerisation strains of anisotropic (unidirectional or bidirectional) reinforced dental composites. However, very limited study exists to establish the validity of FBG based sensors to evaluate volumetric shrinkage for randomly oriented fibres reinforced composites. The present study aims to fill this research gap and is focussed on establishing the usage of FBG based sensors for evaluating the shrinkage of dental composites reinforced with randomly oriented fibres. Three groups of specimens were prepared by mixing the resin (80% UDMA/20% TEGDMA) with 55% of silane treated BaAlSiO₂ particulate fillers or by adding 5% of micro-sized fibres of diameter 5 µm, and length 250/350 µm along with 50% of silane treated BaAlSiO₂ particulate fillers into the resin. For measurement of polymerisation shrinkage strain, an array of three fibre Bragg grating sensors was embedded at a depth of 1 mm into a circular Teflon mould of diameter 15 mm and depth 2 mm. The results obtained are compared with the traditional method for evaluation of the volumetric shrinkage using density-based measurements. Degree of conversion was measured using FTIR spectroscopy (Spotlight 400 FT-IR from PerkinElmer). It is expected that the average polymerisation shrinkage strain values for dental composites reinforced with micro-sized fibres can directly correlate with the measured degree of conversion values, implying that more C=C double bond conversion to C-C single bond values also leads to higher shrinkage strain within the composite. Moreover, it could be established the photonics approach could help assess the shrinkage at any point of interest in the material, suggesting that fibre-Bragg grating sensors are a suitable means for measuring real-time polymerisation shrinkage strain for randomly fibre reinforced dental composites as well.

Keywords: dental composite, glass fibre, polymerisation shrinkage strain, fibre-Bragg grating sensors

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Ahmad Saadiq, Neeraj Sahu

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The partial or full replacement of natural coarse aggregate by recycled concrete aggregate (RCA) is of great benefit to the environment, as the demand of natural coarse aggregate reduces. In the modern construction and practice, the use of RCA is limited to backfilling and road construction. The establishment of RCA for its wide application can only be done after having an understanding of the use of RCA in conventional concrete. To have an insight to this, various tests to determine the compressive strength, elastic strength, workability, durability and drying shrinkage tests can be done and the test results may be different from that obtained from natural coarse aggregates, by using natural coarse aggregate in concrete. This paper gives a comprehensive review of the said tests done on RCA concrete. The results obtained from the tests indicate that RCA concrete gives comparable compressive strength, stiffness, and workability relative to the corresponding results obtained from the natural coarse aggregates. However, the durability and drying shrinkage had more variance but well within recommended limits.

Keywords: aggregate, compressive strength, durability, modulus of elasticity, recycled concrete, shrinkage, workability

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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Authors: Reena Aggarwal, Neha Kestwal

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The Himalayan Nettle (Girardinia diversifolia) has been used for centuries as fibre and food source by Himalayan communities. Himalayan Nettle is a natural cellulosic fibre that can be handled in the same way as other cellulosic fibres. The Uttarakhand Bamboo and Fibre Development Board based in Uttarakhand, India is working extensively with the nettle fibre to explore the potential of nettle for textile production in the region. The fiber is a potential resource for rural enterprise development for some high altitude pockets of the state and traditionally the plant fibre is used for making domestic products like ropes and sacks. Himalayan Nettle is an unconventional natural fiber with functional characteristics of shrink resistance, degree of pathogen and fire resistance and can blend nicely with other fibres. Most importantly, they generate mainly organic wastes and leave residues that are 100% biodegradable. The fabrics may potentially be reused or re-manufactured and can also be used as a source of cellulose feedstock for regenerated cellulosic products. Being naturally bio- degradable, the fibre can be composted if required. Though a lot of research activities and training are directed towards fibre extraction and processing techniques in different craft clusters villagers of different clusters of Uttarkashi, Chamoli and Bageshwar of Uttarakhand like retting and Degumming process, very little is been done to analyse the crucial properties of nettle fiber like shrinkage and wash fastness. These properties are very crucial to obtain desired quality of fibre for further processing of yarn making and weaving and in developing these fibers into fine saleable products. This research therefore is focused towards various on-field experiments which were focused on shrinkage properties conducted on cotton, nettle and cotton/nettle blended yarn samples. The objective of the study was to analyze the scope of the blended fiber for developing into wearable fabrics. For the study, after conducting the initial fiber length and fineness testing, cotton and nettle fibers were mixed in 60:40 ratio and five varieties of yarns were spun in open end spinning mill having yarn count of 3s, 5s, 6s, 7s and 8s. Samples of 100% Nettle 100% cotton fibers in 8s count were also developed for the study. All the six varieties of yarns were tested with shrinkage test and results were critically analyzed as per ASTM method D2259. It was observed that 100% Nettle has a least shrinkage of 3.36% while pure cotton has shrinkage approx. 13.6%. Yarns made of 100% Cotton exhibits four times more shrinkage than 100% Nettle. The results also show that cotton and Nettle blended yarn exhibit lower shrinkage than 100% cotton yarn. It was thus concluded that as the ratio of nettle increases in the samples, the shrinkage decreases in the samples. These results are very crucial for Uttarakhand people who want to commercially exploit the abundant nettle fiber for generating sustainable employment.

Keywords: Himalayan nettle, sustainable, shrinkage, blending

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Authors: Hasan Ziari, Hassan Fazaeli, Seyed Javad Vaziri Kang Olyaei, Asma Sadat Dabiri

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The presence of cracks in concrete pavements is a place for the ingression of corrosive substances, acids, oils, and water into the pavement and reduces its long-term durability and level of service. One of the causes of early cracks in concrete pavements is the plastic shrinkage. This shrinkage occurs due to the formation of negative capillary pressures after the equilibrium of the bleeding and evaporation rates at the pavement surface. These cracks form if the tensile stresses caused by the restrained shrinkage exceed the tensile strength of the concrete. Different climate conditions change the rate of evaporation and thus change the balance time of the bleeding and evaporation, which changes the severity of cracking in concrete. The present study examined the relationship between the balance time of bleeding and evaporation and the area of cracking in the concrete slabs using the standard method ASTM C1579 in 27 different environmental conditions by using continuous video recording and digital image analyzing. The results showed that as the evaporation rate increased and the balance time decreased, the crack severity significantly increased so that by reducing the balance time from the maximum value to its minimum value, the cracking area increased more than four times. It was also observed that the cracking area- balance time curve could be interpreted in three sections. An examination of these three parts showed that the combination of climate conditions has a significant effect on increasing or decreasing these two variables. The criticality of a single factor cannot cause the critical conditions of plastic cracking. By combining two mild environmental factors with a severe climate factor (in terms of surface evaporation rate), a considerable reduction in balance time and a sharp increase in cracking severity can be prevented. The results of this study showed that balance time could be an essential factor in controlling and predicting plastic shrinkage cracking in concrete pavements. It is necessary to control this factor in the case of constructing concrete pavements in different climate conditions.

Keywords: bleeding and cracking severity, concrete pavements, climate conditions, plastic shrinkage

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Authors: Hanizam Awang, Muhammad Hafiz Ahmad

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An experimental study was conducted on foamed concrete with synthetic and natural fibres consisting of AR-glass, polypropylene, steel, kenaf and oil palm fibre. The foamed concrete mixtures produced had a target density of 1000 kg/m3 and a mix ratio of (1:1.5:0.45). The fibres were used as additives. The inclusion of fibre was maintained at a volumetric fraction of 0.25 and 0.4 %. The water absorption, thermal and shrinkage were determined to study the effect of the fibre on the durability properties of foamed concrete. The results showed that AR-glass fibre has the lowest percentage value of drying shrinkage compared to others.

Keywords: foamed concrete, fibres, durability, construction, geological engineering

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Authors: Zaoiai Said, Makani Abdelkadir, Tafraoui Ahmed

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Concrete material suffers from a relatively low tensile strength and deformation capacity is limited. Such defects of the concrete are very fragile and sensitive to shrinkage cracking materials. The Self- Compacting Concrete (SCC) are highly fluid concretes whose implementation without vibration. This material replaces traditional vibrated concrete mainly seen techno-economic interest it presents. The SCC has several advantages which are at the origin of their development crunching. The research is therefore to conduct a comparison in terms of rheological and mechanical performance between different formulations to find the optimal dosage for rubber granulates. Through this research, we demonstrated that it is possible to make different settings SCC composition having good rheological and mechanical properties. This study also showed that the substitution of natural coarse aggregates (NA) by coarse rubber aggregates (RA) in the composition of the SCC, contributes to a slight variation of workability in the fresh state parameters still remaining in the field of SCC required by the AFGC recommendations. The experimental results show that the compressive strengths of SCC decreased slightly by substituting NA by RA. Finally, the decrease in free shrinkage is proportional to the percentage of RA incorporated into the composition of concrete. This reduction is mainly due to the improvement of the deformability of these materials.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, coarse rubber aggregate, rheological characterization, mechanical performance, shrinkage

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Authors: Redha Yeghnem, Laid Boulefrakh, Sid Ahmed Meftah, Abdelouahed Tounsi, El Abbas Adda Bedia

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In this study, the time-dependent behavior of damaged reinforced concrete shear wall structures strengthened with composite plates having variable fibers spacing was investigated to analyze their seismic response. In the analytical formulation, the adherent and the adhesive layers are all modeled as shear walls, using the mixed finite element method (FEM). The anisotropic damage model is adopted to describe the damage extent of the RC shear walls. The phenomenon of creep and shrinkage of concrete has been determined by Eurocode 2. Large earthquakes recorded in Algeria (El-Asnam and Boumerdes) have been tested to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. Numerical results are obtained for non uniform distributions of carbon fibers in epoxy matrices. The effects of damage extent and the delay mechanism creep and shrinkage of concrete are highlighted. Prospects are being studied.

Keywords: RC shear wall structures, composite plates, creep and shrinkage, damaged reinforced concrete structures, finite element method

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Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

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Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression

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Authors: Yi-Cheng Tian, Miin-Shen Yang

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The mixture likelihood approach to clustering is a popular clustering method where the expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is the most used mixture likelihood method. In the literature, the EM algorithm had been used for mixture regression models. However, these EM mixture regression algorithms are sensitive to initial values with a priori number of clusters. In this paper, to resolve these drawbacks, we construct a learning-based schema for the EM mixture regression algorithm such that it is free of initializations and can automatically obtain an approximately optimal number of clusters. Some numerical examples and comparisons demonstrate the superiority and usefulness of the proposed learning-based EM mixture regression algorithm.

Keywords: clustering, EM algorithm, Gaussian mixture model, mixture regression model

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Authors: N. Dahraoui, M. Boulakroune, D. Benatia

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In this paper, the improvement by deconvolution of the depth resolution in Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) analysis is considered. Indeed, we have developed a new Tikhonov-Miller deconvolution algorithm where a priori model of the solution is included. This is a denoisy and pre-deconvoluted signal obtained from: firstly, by the application of wavelet shrinkage algorithm, secondly by the introduction of the obtained denoisy signal in an iterative deconvolution algorithm. In particular, we have focused the light on the effect of the iterations number on the evolution of the deconvoluted signals. The SIMS profiles are multilayers of Boron in Silicon matrix.

Keywords: DRF, in-depth resolution, multiresolution deconvolution, SIMS, wavelet shrinkage

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Authors: Arum Kingsley Chinedu, Ugwuowo Fidelis Ifeanyi, Oranye Henrietta Ebele

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The Poisson regression model (PRM) is a nonlinear model that belongs to the exponential family of distribution. PRM is suitable for studying count variables using appropriate covariates and sometimes experiences the problem of multicollinearity in the explanatory variables and outliers on the response variable. This study aims to address the problem of multicollinearity and outliers jointly in a Poisson regression model. We developed an estimator called the robust modified jackknife PCKL parameter estimator by combining the principal component estimator, modified jackknife KL and transformed M-estimator estimator to address both problems in a PRM. The superiority conditions for this estimator were established, and the properties of the estimator were also derived. The estimator inherits the characteristics of the combined estimators, thereby making it efficient in addressing both problems. And will also be of immediate interest to the research community and advance this study in terms of novelty compared to other studies undertaken in this area. The performance of the estimator (robust modified jackknife PCKL) with other existing estimators was compared using mean squared error (MSE) as a performance evaluation criterion through a Monte Carlo simulation study and the use of real-life data. The results of the analytical study show that the estimator outperformed other existing estimators compared with by having the smallest MSE across all sample sizes, different levels of correlation, percentages of outliers and different numbers of explanatory variables.

Keywords: jackknife modified KL, outliers, multicollinearity, principal component, transformed M-estimator.

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Authors: Mohammed Abdullah Alshahrani

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The research focuses on investigating the use of partial least squares (PLS) methodology for addressing challenges associated with high-dimensional correlated data. Recent technological advancements have led to experiments producing data characterized by a large number of variables compared to observations, with substantial inter-variable correlations. Such data patterns are common in chemometrics, where near-infrared (NIR) spectrometer calibrations record chemical absorbance levels across hundreds of wavelengths, and in genomics, where thousands of genomic regions' copy number alterations (CNA) are recorded from cancer patients. PLS serves as a widely used method for analyzing high-dimensional data, functioning as a regression tool in chemometrics and a classification method in genomics. It handles data complexity by creating latent variables (components) from original variables. However, applying PLS can present challenges. The study investigates key areas to address these challenges, including unifying interpretations across three main PLS algorithms and exploring unusual negative shrinkage factors encountered during model fitting. The research presents an alternative approach to addressing the interpretation challenge of predictor weights associated with PLS. Sparse estimation of predictor weights is employed using a penalty function combining a lasso penalty for sparsity and a Cauchy distribution-based penalty to account for variable dependencies. The results demonstrate sparse and grouped weight estimates, aiding interpretation and prediction tasks in genomic data analysis. High-dimensional data scenarios, where predictors outnumber observations, are common in regression analysis applications. Ordinary least squares regression (OLS), the standard method, performs inadequately with high-dimensional and highly correlated data. Copy number alterations (CNA) in key genes have been linked to disease phenotypes, highlighting the importance of accurate classification of gene expression data in bioinformatics and biology using regularized methods like PLS for regression and classification.

Keywords: partial least square regression, genetics data, negative filter factors, high dimensional data, high correlated data

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Authors: Afshin Veisi

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In this study, the physical properties of wood in poplar wood (Populous sp.) were analyzed in longitudinal and radial directions of the stem. Three Populous Alba tree were cut in chaloos zone and from each tree, 3 discs were selected at 130cm, half of tree and under of crown. The test samples from pith to bark (heartwood to sapwood) were prepared from these discs for measuring the involved properties such as, wet, dry and critical specific gravity, porosity, volume shrinkage and swelling based on the ASTM standard, and data in two radial and longitudinal directions in the trank were statistically analyzed. Such as, variations of wet, dry and critical specific gravity had in radial direction respectively: irregular increase, increase and increase, and in longitudinal direction respectively: irregular decrease, irregular increase and increase. Results of variations to moisture content and porosity show that in radial direction respectively: irregular increasing and decreasing, and in longitudinal direction from down to up respectively: irregular decreasing and stability. Volume shrinkage and swelling variations show in radial direction irregular and in longitudinal axial regular decreasing.

Keywords: poplar wood, physical properties, shrinkage, swelling, critical specific gravity, wet specific gravity, dry specific gravity

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Authors: Kisan Sarda, Bhavika Shingote

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This paper aims to evaluate regression modelling for prediction of Energy storage of solar photovoltaic (PV) system using Semi parametric regression techniques because there are some parameters which are known while there are some unknown parameters like humidity, dust etc. Here irradiation of solar energy is different for different places on the basis of Latitudes, so by finding out areas which give more storage we can implement PV systems at those places and our need of energy will be fulfilled. This regression modelling is done for daily, monthly and seasonal prediction of solar energy storage. In this, we have used R modules for designing the algorithm. This algorithm will give the best comparative results than other regression models for the solar PV cell energy storage.

Keywords: semi parametric regression, photovoltaic (PV) system, regression modelling, irradiation

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Authors: Ahmad E. Aldousaria, Abdulla Al Kafy

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Urbanization is an incessant process that involves the transformation of land use/land cover (LULC), resulting in a reduction of cool land covers and thermal comfort zones (TCZs). This study explores the directional shrinkage of TCZs in Kuwait using Landsat satellite data from 1991 – 2021 to predict the future LULC and TCZ distribution for 2026 and 2031 using cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms. Analysis revealed a rapid urban expansion (40 %) in SE, NE, and NW directions and TCZ shrinkage in N – NW and SW directions with 25 % of the very uncomfortable area. The predicted result showed an urban area increase from 44 % in 2021 to 47 % and 52 % in 2026 and 2031, respectively, where uncomfortable zones were found to be concentrated around urban areas and bare lands in N – NE and N – NW directions. This study proposes an effective and sustainable framework to control TCZ shrinkage, including zero soil policies, planned landscape design, manmade water bodies, and rooftop gardens. This study will help urban planners and policymakers to make Kuwait an eco–friendly, functional, and sustainable country.

Keywords: land cover change, thermal environment, green cover loss, machine learning, remote sensing

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Authors: Tadeusz Pieczonka, Jan Kazior

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The influence of SiC powder addition on densification of Al-SiC compacts during sintering in different atmospheres was investigated. It was performed in a dilatometer in flowing nitrogen, nitrogen/hydrogen (95/5 by volume) and argon. Fine, F500 grade of SiC powder was used. Mixtures containing 10 and 30 vol.% of SiC reinforcement were prepared in a Turbula mixer. Green compacts of about 82% of theoretical density were made of each mixture. For comparison, compacts made of pure aluminum powder were also investigated. It was shown that nitrogen is the best sintering atmosphere because only in this atmosphere did shrinkage take place. Its amount is lowered by ceramic powder addition, i.e. the more SiC the less densification occurs. Additionally, the formation of clusters enhanced in compacts containing 30 vol.% SiC, is also responsible for limiting the shrinkage. Microstructural examinations of sintered composites revealed that sintering of compacts occurs in the presence of the liquid phase exclusively in nitrogen.

Keywords: Al-SiC composites, densification, sintering atmosphere, materials engineering

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Authors: Suparman

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Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

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Authors: Hamed Yaghoubi, Esmaeil Salahi, Fateme Taati

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The effective shear and bulk viscosity, as well as dynamic viscosity, describe the rheological properties of the ceramic body during the liquid phase sintering process. The rheological parameters depend on the physical and thermomechanical characteristics of the material such as relative density, temperature, grain size, and diffusion coefficient and activation energy. The main goal of this research is to acquire a comprehensive understanding of the response of an incompressible viscose ceramic material during liquid phase sintering process such as stress-strain relations, sintering and hydrostatic stress, the prediction of anisotropic shrinkage and heterogeneous densification as a function of sintering time by including the simultaneous influence of gravity field, and frictional force. After raw materials analysis, the standard hard porcelain mixture as a ceramic body was designed and prepared. Three different experimental configurations were designed including midpoint deflection, sinter bending, and free sintering samples. The numerical method for the ceramic specimens during the liquid phase sintering process are implemented in the CREEP user subroutine code in ABAQUS. The numerical-experimental procedure shows the anisotropic behavior, the complete difference in spatial displacement through three directions, the incompressibility for ceramic samples during the sintering process. The anisotropic shrinkage factor has been proposed to investigate the shrinkage anisotropy. It has been shown that the shrinkage along the normal axis of casting sample is about 1.5 times larger than that of casting direction, the gravitational force in pyroplastic deformation intensifies the shrinkage anisotropy more than the free sintering sample. The lowest and greatest equivalent creep strain occurs at the intermediate zone and around the central line of the midpoint distorted sample, respectively. In the sinter bending test sample, the equivalent creep strain approaches to the maximum near the contact area with refractory support. The inhomogeneity in Von-Misses, pressure, and principal stress intensifies the relative density non-uniformity in all samples, except in free sintering one. The symmetrical distribution of stress around the center of free sintering sample, cause to hinder the pyroplastic deformations. Densification results confirmed that the effective bulk viscosity was well-defined with relative density values. The stress analysis confirmed that the sintering stress is more than the hydrostatic stress from start to end of sintering time so, from both theoretically and experimentally point of view, the sintering process occurs completely.

Keywords: anisotropic shrinkage, ceramic material, liquid phase sintering process, rheological properties, numerical-experimental procedure

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Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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Authors: F. Louati, H. Trabelsi, M. Jamei

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Desiccation cracks following drainage-humidification cycles. With water loss, mainly due to evaporation, suction in the soil increases, producing volumetric shrinkage and tensile stress. When the tensile stress reaches tensile strength, the soil cracks. Desiccation cracks networks can directly control soil hydraulic properties. The aim of this study was for quantifying the hydraulic properties for examples the water retention curve, the saturated hydraulic conductivity, the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity function, the shrinkage dynamics in Tibar soil- clay soil in the Northern of Tunisia. Then a numerical simulation of unsaturated hydraulic properties for a crack network has been attempted. The finite elements code ‘CODE_BRIGHT’ can be used to follow the hydraulic distribution in cracked porous media.

Keywords: desiccation, cracks, permeability, unsaturated hydraulic flow, simulation

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

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Authors: Smitha Yadav, Snehal Pathak

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Aggregate compositions in the construction and demolition (C&D) waste have potential to replace normal aggregates. However, to re-utilise these aggregates, the concrete produced with these recycled aggregates needs to provide the desired compressive strength and durability. This paper examines the performance of recycled aggregate concrete made up of 60% recycled aggregates of 20 mm size in terms of durability tests namely rapid chloride permeability, drying shrinkage, water permeability, modulus of elasticity and creep without compromising the compressive strength. The experimental outcome indicates that recycled aggregate concrete provides strength and durability same as controlled concrete when processed for removal of adhered mortar.

Keywords: compressive strength, recycled aggregate, shrinkage, rapid chloride permeation test, modulus of elasticity, water permeability

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Authors: Adeel Zulifqar, Hong Hu

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Auxetic fabrics are a special kind of textile materials which possess negative Poisson’s ratio. Opposite to most of the conventional fabrics, auxetic fabrics get bigger in the transversal direction when stretched or get smaller when compressed. Auxetic fabrics are superior to conventional fabrics because of their counterintuitive properties, such as enhanced porosity under the extension, excellent formability to a curved surface and high energy absorption ability. Up till today, auxetic fabrics have been produced based on two approaches. The first approach involves using auxetic fibre or yarn and weaving technology to fabricate auxetic fabrics. The other method to fabricate the auxetic fabrics is by using non-auxetic yarns. This method has gained extraordinary curiosity of researcher in recent years. This method is based on realizing auxetic geometries into the fabric structure. In the woven fabric structure auxetic geometries can be realized by creating a differential shrinkage phenomenon into the fabric structural unit cell. This phenomenon can be created by using loose and tight weave combinations within the unit cell of interlacement pattern along with elastic and non-elastic yarns. Upon relaxation, the unit cell of interlacement pattern acquires a non-uniform shrinkage profile due to different shrinkage properties of loose and tight weaves in designed pattern, and the auxetic geometry is realized. The development of uni-stretch auxetic woven fabrics and bi-stretch auxetic woven fabrics by using this method has already been reported. This study reports the development of another kind of bi-stretch auxetic woven fabric. The fabric is first designed by transforming the auxetic geometry into interlacement pattern and then fabricated, using the available conventional weaving technology and non-auxetic elastic and non-elastic yarns. The tensile tests confirmed that the developed bi-stretch auxetic woven fabrics exhibit negative Poisson’s ratio over a wide range of tensile strain. Therefore, it can be concluded that the auxetic geometry can be realized into the woven fabric structure by creating the phenomenon of differential shrinkage and bi-stretch woven fabrics made of non-auxetic yarns having auxetic behavior and stretchability are possible can be obtained. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government (grant number 15205514).

Keywords: auxetic, differential shrinkage, negative Poisson's ratio, weaving, stretchable

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

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Authors: Sebastiano Candamano, Antonio Iorfida, Patrizia Frontera, Anastasia Macario, Fortunato Crea

Abstract:

Alkali-activated materials are promising binders obtained by an alkaline attack on fly-ashes, metakaolin, blast slag among others. In order to guarantee the highest ecological and cost efficiency, a proper selection of precursors and alkaline activators has to be carried out. These choices deeply affect the microstructure, chemistry and performances of this class of materials. Even if, in the last years, several researches have been focused on mix designs and curing conditions, the lack of exhaustive activation models, standardized mix design and curing conditions and an insufficient investigation on shrinkage behavior, efflorescence, additives and durability prevent them from being perceived as an effective and reliable alternative to Portland. The aim of this study is to develop alkali-activated cements mortars containing high amounts of industrial by-products and waste, such as ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS) and ashes obtained from the combustion process of forest biomass in thermal power plants. In particular, the experimental campaign was performed in two steps. In the first step, research was focused on elucidating how the workability, mechanical properties and shrinkage behavior of produced mortars are affected by the type and fraction of each precursor as well as by the composition of the activator solutions. In order to investigate the microstructures and reaction products, SEM and diffractometric analyses have been carried out. In the second step, their durability in harsh environments has been evaluated. Mortars obtained using only GGBFS as binder showed mechanical properties development and shrinkage behavior strictly dependent on SiO2/Na2O molar ratio of the activator solutions. Compressive strengths were in the range of 40-60 MPa after 28 days of curing at ambient temperature. Mortars obtained by partial replacement of GGBFS with metakaolin and forest biomass ash showed lower compressive strengths (≈35 MPa) and shrinkage values when higher amount of ashes were used. By varying the activator solutions and binder composition, compressive strength up to 70 MPa associated with shrinkage values of about 4200 microstrains were measured. Durability tests were conducted to assess the acid and thermal resistance of the different mortars. They all showed good resistance in a solution of 5%wt of H2SO4 also after 60 days of immersion, while they showed a decrease of mechanical properties in the range of 60-90% when exposed to thermal cycles up to 700°C.

Keywords: alkali activated cement, biomass ash, durability, shrinkage, slag

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Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: piecewise regression, bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation

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Authors: Alok S Chauhan, Sridhar S., Pradyumna R.

Abstract:

In the process of precision investment casting of turbine hollow blade/vane components, a part of the dimensional deviations observed in the castings can be attributed to the wax pattern. In the process of injection moulding of wax to produce patterns, heated wax shrinks in size during cooling in the die, leading to a reduction in the dimensions of the pattern. Also, flow and thermal induced residual stresses result in shrinkage & warpage of the component after removal from the die, further adding to the deviations. Injection moulding parameters such as wax temperature, flow rate, packing pressure, etc. affect the flow and thermal behavior of the component and hence are directly responsible for the dimensional deviations. There is a need to precisely determine and control these deviations in order to achieve stringent dimensional accuracies imposed on these castings by aerospace standards. Simulation based approaches provide a platform to predict these dimensional deviations without resorting to elaborate experimentation. In the present paper, Moldex3D simulation package has been utilized to analyze the effect of variations in injection temperature, packing pressure and cooling time on the shrinkage behavior of a stepped pattern. Two types of waxes with different rheological properties have been included in the study to gauge the effect of change in wax on the dimensional deviations. A full factorial design of experiments has been configured with these parameters and results of analysis of variance have been presented.

Keywords: wax patterns, investment casting, pattern die/mould, wax injection, Moldex3D simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 352