Search results for: exit
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 210

Search results for: exit

180 Effects of the Exit from Budget Support on Good Governance: Findings from Four Sub-Saharan Countries

Authors: Magdalena Orth, Gunnar Gotz

Abstract:

Background: Domestic accountability, budget transparency and public financial management (PFM) are considered vital components of good governance in developing countries. The aid modality budget support (BS) promotes these governance functions in developing countries. BS engages in political decision-making and provides financial and technical support to poverty reduction strategies of the partner countries. Nevertheless, many donors have withdrawn their support from this modality due to cases of corruption, fraud or human rights violations. This exit from BS is leaving a finance and governance vacuum in the countries. The evaluation team analyzed the consequences of terminating the use of this modality and found particularly negative effects for good governance outcomes. Methodology: The evaluation uses a qualitative (theory-based) approach consisting of a comparative case study design, which is complemented by a process-tracing approach. For the case studies, the team conducted over 100 semi-structured interviews in Malawi, Uganda, Rwanda and Zambia and used four country-specific, tailor-made budget analysis. In combination with a previous DEval evaluation synthesis on the effects of BS, the team was able to create a before-and-after comparison that yields causal effects. Main Findings: In all four countries domestic accountability and budget transparency declined if other forms of pressure are not replacing BS´s mutual accountability mechanisms. In Malawi a fraud scandal created pressure from the society and from donors so that accountability was improved. In the other countries, these pressure mechanisms were absent so that domestic accountability declined. BS enables donors to actively participate in political processes of the partner country as donors transfer funds into the treasury of the partner country and conduct a high-level political dialogue. The results confirm that the exit from BS created a governance vacuum that, if not compensated through external/internal pressure, leads to a deterioration of good governance. For example, in the case of highly aid dependent Malawi did the possibility of a relaunch of BS provide sufficient incentives to push for governance reforms. Overall the results show that the three good governance areas are negatively affected by the exit from BS. This stands in contrast to positive effects found before the exit. The team concludes that the relationship is causal, because the before-and-after comparison coherently shows that the presence of BS correlates with positive effects and the absence with negative effects. Conclusion: These findings strongly suggest that BS is an effective modality to promote governance and its abolishment is likely to cause governance disruptions. Donors and partner governments should find ways to re-engage in closely coordinated policy-based aid modalities. In addition, a coordinated and carefully managed exit-strategy should be in place before an exit from similar modalities is considered. Particularly a continued framework of mutual accountability and a high-level political dialogue should be aspired to maintain pressure and oversight that is required to achieve good governance.

Keywords: budget support, domestic accountability, public financial management and budget transparency, Sub-Sahara Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
179 Characteristics of Plasma Synthetic Jet Actuator in Repetitive Working Mode

Authors: Haohua Zong, Marios Kotsonis

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Plasma synthetic jet actuator (PSJA) is a new concept of zero net mass flow actuator which utilizes pulsed arc/spark discharge to rapidly pressurize gas in a small cavity under constant-volume conditions. The unique combination of high exit jet velocity (>400 m/s) and high actuation frequency (>5 kHz) provides a promising solution for high-speed high-Reynolds-number flow control. This paper focuses on the performance of PSJA in repetitive working mode which is more relevant to future flow control applications. A two-electrodes PSJA (cavity volume: 424 mm3, orifice diameter: 2 mm) together with a capacitive discharge circuit (discharge energy: 50 mJ-110 mJ) is designed to enable repetitive operation. Time-Resolved Particle Imaging Velocimetry (TR-PIV) system working at 10 kHz is exploited to investigate the influence of discharge frequency on performance of PSJA. In total, seven cases are tested, covering a wide range of discharge frequencies (20 Hz-560 Hz). The pertinent flow features (shock wave, vortex ring and jet) remain the same for single shot mode and repetitive working mode. Shock wave is issued prior to jet eruption. Two distinct vortex rings are formed in one cycle. The first one is produced by the starting jet whereas the second one is related with the shock wave reflection in cavity. A sudden pressure rise is induced at the throat inlet by the reflection of primary shock wave, promoting the shedding of second vortex ring. In one cycle, jet exit velocity first increases sharply, then decreases almost linearly. Afterwards, an alternate occurrence of multiple jet stages and refresh stages is observed. By monitoring the dynamic evolution of exit velocity in one cycle, some integral performance parameters of PSJA can be deduced. As frequency increases, the jet intensity in steady phase decreases monotonically. In the investigated frequency range, jet duration time drops from 250 µs to 210 µs and peak jet velocity decreases from 53 m/s to approximately 39 m/s. The jet impulse and the expelled gas mass (0.69 µN∙s and 0.027 mg at 20 Hz) decline by 48% and 40%, respectively. However, the electro-mechanical efficiency of PSJA defined by the ratio of jet mechanical energy to capacitor energy doesn’t show significant difference (o(0.01%)). Fourier transformation of the temporal exit velocity signal indicates two dominant frequencies. One corresponds to the discharge frequency, while the other accounts for the alternation frequency of jet stage and refresh stage in one cycle. The alternation period (300 µs approximately) is independent of discharge frequency, and possibly determined intrinsically by the actuator geometry. A simple analytical model is established to interpret the alternation of jet stage and refresh stage. Results show that the dynamic response of exit velocity to a small-scale disturbance (jump in cavity pressure) can be treated as a second-order under-damping system. Oscillation frequency of the exit velocity, namely alternation frequency, is positively proportional to exit area, but inversely proportional to cavity volume and throat length. Theoretical value of alternation period (305 µs) agrees well with the experimental value.

Keywords: plasma, synthetic jet, actuator, frequency effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 252
178 Dynamic and Thermal Characteristics of Three-Dimensional Turbulent Offset Jet

Authors: Ali Assoudi, Sabra Habli, Nejla Mahjoub Saïd, Philippe Bournot, Georges Le Palec

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Studying the flow characteristics of a turbulent offset jet is an important topic among researchers across the world because of its various engineering applications. Some of the common examples include: injection and carburetor systems, entrainment and mixing process in gas turbine and boiler combustion chambers, Thrust-augmenting ejectors for V/STOL aircrafts and HVAC systems, environmental dischargers, film cooling and many others. An offset jet is formed when a jet discharges into a medium above a horizontal solid wall parallel to the axis of the jet exit but which is offset by a certain distance. The structure of a turbulent offset-jet can be described by three main regions. Close to the nozzle exit, an offset jet possesses characteristic features similar to those of free jets. Then, the entrainment of fluid between the jet, the offset wall and the bottom wall creates a low pressure zone, forcing the jet to deflect towards the wall and eventually attaches to it at the impingement point. This is referred to as the Coanda effect. Further downstream after the reattachment point, the offset jet has the characteristics of a wall jet flow. Therefore, the offset jet has characteristics of free, impingement and wall jets, and it is relatively more complex compared to these types of flows. The present study examines the dynamic and thermal evolution of a 3D turbulent offset jet with different offset height ratio (the ratio of the distance from the jet exit to the impingement bottom wall and the jet nozzle diameter). To achieve this purpose a numerical study was conducted to investigate a three-dimensional offset jet flow through the resolution of the different governing Navier–Stokes’ equations by means of the finite volume method and the RSM second-order turbulent closure model. A detailed discussion has been provided on the flow and thermal characteristics in the form of streamlines, mean velocity vector, pressure field and Reynolds stresses.

Keywords: offset jet, offset ratio, numerical simulation, RSM

Procedia PDF Downloads 304
177 Investigation of Beam Defocusing Impact in Millisecond Laser Drilling for Variable Operational Currents

Authors: Saad Nawaz, Yu Gang, Baber Saeed Olakh, M. Bilal Awan

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Owing to its exceptional performance and precision, laser drilling is being widely used in modern manufacturing industries. This experimental study mainly addressed the defocusing of laser beam along with different operational currents. The performance has been evaluated in terms of tapering phenomena, entrance and exit diameters etc. The operational currents have direct influence on laser power which ultimately affected the shape of the drilled hole. Different operational currents in low, medium and high ranges are used for laser drilling of 18CrNi8. Experiment results have depicted that there is an increase in entrance diameter with an increase in defocusing distance. However, the exit diameter first decreases and then increases with respect to increasing defocusing length. The evolution of drilled hole from tapered to straight hole has been explained with defocusing at different levels. The optimum parametric combinations for attaining perfect shape of drilled hole is proposed along with lower heat treatment effects for higher process efficiency.

Keywords: millisecond laser, defocusing beam, operational current, keyhole profile, recast layer

Procedia PDF Downloads 170
176 A Study for the Effect of Fire Initiated Location on Evacuation Success Rate

Authors: Jin A Ryu, Hee Sun Kim

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As the number of fire accidents is gradually raising, many studies have been reported on evacuation. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating the safety of evacuation and the risk of fire in particular buildings. However, studies on effects of various parameters on evacuation have not been nearly done. Therefore, this paper aims at observing evacuation time under the effect of fire initiated location. In this study, evacuation simulations are performed on a 5-floor building located in Seoul, South Korea using the commercial program, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation (FDS+EVAC). Only the fourth and fifth floors are modeled with an assumption that fire starts in a room located on the fourth floor. The parameter for evacuation simulations is location of fire initiation to observe the evacuation time and safety. Results show that the location of fire initiation is closer to exit, the more time is taken to evacuate. The case having the nearest location of fire initiation to exit has the lowest ratio of successful occupants to the total occupants. In addition, for safety evaluation, the evacuation time calculated from computer simulation model is compared with the tolerable evacuation time according to code in Japan. As a result, all cases are completed within the tolerable evacuation time. This study allows predicting evacuation time under various conditions of fire and can be used to evaluate evacuation appropriateness and fire safety of building.

Keywords: fire simulation, evacuation simulation, temperature, evacuation safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 349
175 Control of a Plane Jet Spread by Tabs at the Nozzle Exit

Authors: Makito Sakai, Takahiro Kiwata, Takumi Awa, Hiroshi Teramoto, Takaaki Kono, Kuniaki Toyoda

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Using experimental and numerical results, this paper describes the effects of tabs on the flow characteristics of a plane jet at comparatively low Reynolds numbers while focusing on the velocity field and the vortical structure. The flow visualization and velocity measurements were respectively carried out using laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and particle image velocimetry (PIV). In addition, three-dimensional (3D) plane jet numerical simulations were performed using ANSYS Fluent, a commercially available computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software application. We found that the spreads of jets perturbed by large delta tabs and round tabs were larger than those produced by the other tabs tested. Additionally, it was determined that a plane jet with square tabs had the smallest jet spread downstream, and the jet’s centerline velocity was larger than those of jets perturbed by the other tabs tested. It was also observed that the spanwise vortical structure of a plane jet with tabs disappeared completely. Good agreement was found between the experimental and numerical simulation velocity profiles in the area near the nozzle exit when the laminar flow model was used. However, we also found that large eddy simulation (LES) is better at predicting the developing flow field of a plane jet than the laminar and the standard k-ε turbulent models.

Keywords: plane jet, flow control, tab, flow measurement, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
174 Factor Study Affecting Visual Awareness on Dynamic Object Monitoring

Authors: Terry Liang Khin Teo, Sun Woh Lye, Kai Lun Brendon Goh

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As applied to dynamic monitoring situations, the prevailing approach to situation awareness (SA) assumes that the relevant areas of interest (AOI) be perceived before that information can be processed further to affect decision-making and, thereafter, action. It is not entirely clear whether this is the case. This study seeks to investigate the monitoring of dynamic objects through matching eye fixations with the relevant AOIs in boundary-crossing scenarios. By this definition, a match is where a fixation is registered on the AOI. While many factors may affect monitoring characteristics, traffic simulations were designed in this study to explore two factors, namely: the number of inbounds/outbound traffic transfers and the number of entry and/or exit points in a radar monitoring sector. These two factors were graded into five levels of difficulty ranging from low to high traffic flow numbers. Combined permutation in terms of levels of difficulty of these two factors yielded a total of thirty scenarios. Through this, results showed that changes in the traffic flow numbers on transfer resulted in greater variations having match limits ranging from 29%-100%, as compared to the number of sector entry/exit points of range limit from 80%-100%. The subsequent analysis is able to determine the type and combination of traffic scenarios where imperfect matching is likely to occur.

Keywords: air traffic simulation, eye-tracking, visual monitoring, focus attention

Procedia PDF Downloads 57
173 Experimental Study to Determine the Effect of Wire Mesh Pore Size on Natural Draft Chimney Performance

Authors: Md. Mizanur Rahman, Chu Chi Ming, Mohd Suffian Bin Misaran

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Chimney is an important part of the industries to remove waste heat from the processes side to the atmosphere. The increased demand of energy helps to restart to think about the efficiency of chimney as well as to find out a valid option to replace forced draft chimney system from industries. In this study natural draft chimney model is air flow rate; exit air temperature and pressure losses are studied through modification with wire mesh screen and compare the results with without wire mesh screen chimney model. The heat load is varies from 0.1 kW to 1kW and three different wire mesh screens that have pore size 0.15 mm2, 0.40 mm2 and 4.0 mm2 respectively are used. The experimental results show that natural draft chimney model with wire mesh screens significantly restored the flow losses compared to the system without wire mesh screen. The natural draft chimney model with 0.40 mm2 pore size wire mesh screen can minimize the draft losses better than others and able to enhance velocity about 54 % exit air temperature about 41% and pressure loss decreased by about 20%. Therefore, it can be decided that the wire mesh screens significantly minimize the draft losses in the natural draft chimney and 0.40 mm2 pore size screen will be a suitable option.

Keywords: natural draft dhimney, wire mesh screen, natural draft flow, mechanical engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 319
172 Passive Control of Elliptic Jet by Using Triangular and Truncated Tabs

Authors: Saif Akram, E. Rathakrishnan

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The mixing promoting efficiency of two identical sharp and truncated vertex triangular tabs offering geometrical blockage of 2.5% each, placed at the exit of a Mach 1.5 elliptic nozzle was studied experimentally. The effectiveness of both the tabs in enhancing the mixing of jets with the ambient air are determined by measuring the Pitot pressure along the jet axis and the jet spread in both the minor and major axes of the elliptic nozzle, covering marginally overexpanded to moderately underexpanded levels at the nozzle exit. The results reveal that both the tabs enhance mixing characteristics of the uncontrolled elliptic jet when placed at minor axis. A core length reduction of 67% is achieved at NPR 3 which is the overexpanded state. Similarly, the core length is reduced by about 67%, 50% and 57% at NPRs of 4, 5 and 6 (underexpanded states) respectively. However, unlike the considerable increment in mixing promoting efficiency by the use of truncated vertex tabs for axisymmetric jets, the effect is not much pronounced for the case of supersonic elliptic jets. The CPD plots for both the cases almost overlap, especially when tabs are placed at minor axis, at all the pressure conditions. While, when the tabs are used at major axis, in the case of overexpanded condition, the sharp vertex triangular tabs act as a better mixing enhancer for the supersonic elliptic jets. For the jet controlled with truncated vertex triangular tabs, the core length reductions are of the same order as those for the sharp vertex triangular tabs. The jet mixing is hardly influenced by the tip effect in case of supersonic elliptic jet.

Keywords: elliptic jet, tabs, truncated, triangular

Procedia PDF Downloads 383
171 Examining Geometric Thinking Behaviours of Undergraduates in Online Geometry Course

Authors: Peter Akayuure

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Geometry is considered an important strand in mathematics due to its wide-ranging utilitarian value and because it serves as a building block for understanding other aspects of undergraduate mathematics, including algebra and calculus. Matters regarding students’ geometric thinking have therefore long been pursued by mathematics researchers and educators globally via different theoretical lenses, curriculum reform efforts, and innovative instructional practices. However, so far, studies remain inconclusive about the instructional platforms that effectively promote geometric thinking. At the University of Education, Winneba, an undergraduate geometry course was designed and delivered on UEW Learning Management System (LMS) using Moodle platform. This study utilizes van Hiele’s theoretical lens to examine the entry and exit’s geometric thinking behaviours of prospective teachers who took the undergraduate geometry course in the LMS platform. The study was a descriptive survey that involved an intact class of 280 first-year students enrolled to pursue a bachelor's in mathematics education at the university. The van Hiele’s Geometric thinking test was used to assess participants’ entry and exit behaviours, while semi-structured interviews were used to obtain data for triangulation. Data were analysed descriptively and displayed in tables and charts. An Independent t-test was used to test for significant differences in geometric thinking behaviours between those who entered the university with a diploma certificate and with senior high certificate. The results show that on entry, more than 70% of the prospective teachers operated within the visualization level of van Hiele’s geometric thinking. Less than 20% reached analysis and abstraction levels, and no participant reached deduction and rigor levels. On exit, participants’ geometric thinking levels increased markedly across levels, but the difference from entry was not significant and might have occurred by chance. The geometric thinking behaviours of those enrolled with diploma certificates did not differ significant from those enrolled directly from senior high school. The study recommends that the design principles and delivery of undergraduate geometry course via LMS should be structured and tackled using van Hiele’s geometric thinking levels to serve as means of bridging the existing learning gaps of undergraduate students.

Keywords: geometric thinking, van Hiele’s, UEW learning management system, undergraduate geometry

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
170 Large Eddy Simulation Approach for Unsteady Analysis of the Flow Behavior inside a Dual Counter Rotating Axial Swirler

Authors: Foad Vashahi, Shahnaz Rezaei, Jeekeun Lee

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Large Eddy Simulation (LES) was performed on a dual counter rotating axial swirler in a confined rectangular configuration. Grids were constructed based on a primary Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulation and then were refined based on the Kolmogorov length scale. Water as cold flow condition was applied and results were compared via Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) experimental results. The focus was to investigate the flow behavior within the region before the flare and very close to the exit of the swirler. This region contributes to a highly unsteady flow behavior and requires great attention to enhancing the flame stability in gas turbine combustor and swirl burners. The PVC formation within the central core flow is strongly related to the peaks of pressure or axial velocity spectrum and up to two distinct peaks at the swirler mouth could be observed. Here, spectra analysis in iso-thermal condition inside the swirler where the inner swirler dominates the flow, showed a higher potential of instabilities with three to four distinct peaks where moving forward to the exit of swirler the number of peaks is decreased. In addition to this, the central axis corresponds to no peaks of instabilities while further away in the radial direction, several peaks exist.

Keywords: axial counter rotating swirler, large eddy simulation (LES), precessing vortex core (PVC), power spectral density (PSD)

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169 Numerical Analysis of Supersonic Impinging Jets onto Resonance Tube

Authors: Shinji Sato, M. M. A. Alam, Manabu Takao

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In recent, investigation of an unsteady flow inside the resonance tube have become a strongly motivated research field for their potential application as high-frequency actuators. By generating a shock wave inside the resonance tube, a high temperature and pressure can be achieved inside the tube, and this high temperature can also be used to ignite a jet engine. In the present research, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was carried out to investigate the flow inside the resonance tube. The density-based solver of rhoCentralFoam in OpenFOAM was used to numerically simulate the flow. The supersonic jet that was driven by a cylindrical nozzle with a nominal exit diameter of φd = 20.3 mm impinged onto the resonance tube. The jet pressure ratio was varied between 2.6 and 7.8. The gap s between the nozzle exit and tube entrance was changed between 1.5d and 3.0d. The diameter and length of the tube were taken as D = 1.25d and L=3.0D, respectively. As a result, when a supersonic jet has impinged onto the resonance tube, a compression wave was found generating inside the tube and propagating towards the tube end wall. This wave train resulted in a rise in the end wall gas temperature and pressure. While, in an outflow phase, the gas near tube enwall was found cooling back isentropically to its initial temperature. Thus, the compression waves repeated a reciprocating motion in the tube like a piston, and a fluctuation in the end wall pressures and temperatures were observed. A significant change was found in the end wall pressures and temperatures with a change of jet flow conditions. In this study, the highest temperature was confirmed at a jet pressure ratio of 4.2 and a gap of s=2.0d

Keywords: compressible flow, OpenFOAM, oscillations, a resonance tube, shockwave

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
168 Family Caregiver Transitions and Health in Old Age: A Longitudinal Perspective

Authors: Cecilia Fagerstrom, Solve Elmstahl, Lena S. Wranker

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The conditions of increased morbidity in an aging population cause the need for family care to become more common at an advanced age. The role of family caregivers may well last for a long time but may also change over time, from being caregivers to being non-caregivers or vice versa. Although demands associated with family caring change as individuals enter into, engage with, and exit from this role, the evidence regarding the impact of family caregiving transitions on the health of older carers is still limited. This study comprised individuals (n=2294, 60+years) from the southern part of Sweden included in the project Swedish National study of Aging and Care. Caregiving transitions are discussed in the categories: enter, exit, and continuing during a six-year period. Individuals who exited caregiving during the time were older than those who continued or entered into the role of caregiving. At the six-year follow-up, caregivers who were continuing or had exited caregiving were more often worried about their own health compared to baseline. Resembling findings were not found in those who entered caregiving. Family caregiving transitions of exiting, entering or continuing had no effect on the individuals’ functional, physical and mental health expect for participants who entered in caregiving. For them, entering the role of family caregiving was associated with an improvement in physical health during the six years follow up period. Conclusion: Although the health impact of different caregiving transitions in late life does not differ, individual conditions and health at baseline are important parameters to take into consideration to improve long-term health in family caregivers.

Keywords: family caregiving, health, old age, transition

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
167 Business and Psychological Principles Integrated into Automated Capital Investment Systems through Mathematical Algorithms

Authors: Cristian Pauna

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With few steps away from the 2020, investments in financial markets is a common activity nowadays. In the electronic trading environment, the automated investment software has become a major part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial company. The investment decisions are assisted and/or made automatically by computers using mathematical algorithms today. The complexity of these algorithms requires computer assistance in the investment process. This paper will present several investment strategies that can be automated with algorithmic trading for Deutscher Aktienindex DAX30. It was found that, based on several price action mathematical models used for high-frequency trading some investment strategies can be optimized and improved for automated investments with good results. This paper will present the way to automate these investment decisions. Automated signals will be built using all of these strategies. Three major types of investment strategies were found in this study. The types are separated by the target length and by the exit strategy used. The exit decisions will be also automated and the paper will present the specificity for each investment type. A comparative study will be also included in this paper in order to reveal the differences between strategies. Based on these results, the profit and the capital exposure will be compared and analyzed in order to qualify the investment methodologies presented and to compare them with any other investment system. As conclusion, some major investment strategies will be revealed and compared in order to be considered for inclusion in any automated investment system.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated investment systems, limit conditions, trading principles, trading strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
166 Investigation of the Operational Principle and Flow Analysis of a Newly Developed Dry Separator

Authors: Sung Uk Park, Young Su Kang, Sangmo Kang, Young Kweon Suh

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Mineral product, waste concrete (fine aggregates), waste in the optical field, industry, and construction employ separators to separate solids and classify them according to their size. Various sorting machines are used in the industrial field such as those operating under electrical properties, centrifugal force, wind power, vibration, and magnetic force. Study on separators has been carried out to contribute to the environmental industry. In this study, we perform CFD analysis for understanding the basic mechanism of the separation of waste concrete (fine aggregate) particles from air with a machine built with a rotor with blades. In CFD, we first performed two-dimensional particle tracking for various particle sizes for the model with 1 degree, 1.5 degree, and 2 degree angle between each blade to verify the boundary conditions and the method of rotating domain method to be used in 3D. Then we developed 3D numerical model with ANSYS CFX to calculate the air flow and track the particles. We judged the capability of particle separation for given size by counting the number of particles escaping from the domain toward the exit among 10 particles issued at the inlet. We confirm that particles experience stagnant behavior near the exit of the rotating blades where the centrifugal force acting on the particles is in balance with the air drag force. It was also found that the minimum particle size that can be separated by the machine with the rotor is determined by its capability to stay at the outlet of the rotor channels.

Keywords: environmental industry, separator, CFD, fine aggregate

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165 Early-Stage Venture Investment Model: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Authors: Tibah Alharbi, Renzo Cordina, David Power

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Relatively few studies have explored how venture capitalist investors (VCs) make investment decisions and the information they rely on when taking an equity stake in an investee company. In addition, little is known about how much investors monitor start-ups after the decision to invest has been made. The VC scene in the US or European context is understood better than that of developing countries such as those in the Middle East. Although some differences among VC investors have been identified, the reasons behind such differences have not been fully explored – especially in a country such as Saudi Arabia. Therefore, this research seeks to understand the impact of external factors on the VC investor’ behaviour. The unique cultural and legal environments in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the growing VC sector in the country, and the increasing importance attached to start-ups under the Saudi Government’s Vision 2030 program make such an investigation timely. Ascertaining the perceptions of VC investors in such a context will provide a deeper understanding of the determinants of VC investment in a novel setting. Using semi-structured interviews with over 20 participants, the research explores the structure of VC funds, the cycle of the VC investment in a start-up from the sourcing of deals, the screening and evaluation of such deals, the closing of such deals, and finally, the monitoring of such investments before the decision to exit such deals at the appropriate time. The results show some similarities to the VC model, which characterizes such investment in the US and Europe, but several differences emerge given the unique cultural and legal settings within the Kingdom. The results provide an in-depth understanding of the VC investors’ mindset relative to the existing studies in the literature.

Keywords: exit, monitoring, start-ups, venture capital

Procedia PDF Downloads 145
164 Crisis, Identity and Challenge: Next Steps for the ‘English’ Constitution

Authors: Carol Howells, Edwin Parks

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This paper explores the existing and evolving constitutional arrangements within the United Kingdom and within the wider international context of the EU. It considers the nature of an ‘English’ constitution and internal colonialism that underpins it. The debates over the UK’s exit from the EU have been many however the constitutional position of the devolved nations (Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) is little understood or explored. Their constitutional position has been touched upon in academic debate (but not widely) and is only now beginning to receive attention. The paper considers the constitutional role of the legislatures within the UK; the UK Parliament Bill for exiting the European Union and provides a commentary on the Brexit process in relation to constitutional arrangements within the UK and EU. Questions arise over the constitutional framework and, whether, having delegated competencies, the UK Parliament can now legislate in relation to delegated competencies without the consent. The Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly are a permanent and a fixed feature of the UK’s constitution, but their position is set within the traditional concept of the ‘English’ constitution. The current situation is opaque and complex and raises significant constitutional questions. In relation to exit from the EU two of the nations did not vote in favour of Brexit and the third is in receipt of an inequitable funding settlement. Questions arise as to whether the work of modernising the UK’s constitution over the past twenty years in recognising the Nations and governments within those nations is now being unpicked and whether the piecemeal and unequal process of devolution and new constitutional arrangements hold weight. Questions of democratic legitimacy arise throughout. An advisory referendum (where no definition of the EU was provided) in which two of the four nations voted to leave the EU and two voted to remain has led the UK Government negotiating a wholesale exit from the EU based on ‘English’ constitutional law principles. Previous constitutional referendums in relation to devolution within the UK have been treated differently. Within the EU questions are being raised in relation to the focus on member states. The goals of the EU mention member countries and its purpose is seen as being to promote greater social, political and economic harmony among the nations of Europe. The emphasis on member states is proving challenging and has led flawed processes. Scrutiny of legislative proposals, historical developments, and social commentary reveal distinct national identities within the UK. Analysis of the debate, legislation and case law surrounding the exiting process from the EU reveal a muddled picture of a constitution in crisis and significant challenges to principles underpinning the rule of law. Suggestions are made for future reforms and a move towards new constitutional arrangements beyond the current ‘English’ constitution.

Keywords: English, constitution, parliament, devolved

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
163 Design of an Automatic Bovine Feeding Machine

Authors: Huseyin A. Yavasoglu, Yusuf Ziya Tengiz, Ali Göksenli

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In this study, an automatic feeding machine for different type and class of bovine animals is designed. Daily nutrition of a bovine consists of grass, corn, straw, silage, oat, wheat and different vitamins and minerals. The amount and mixture amount of each of the nutrition depends on different parameters of the bovine. These parameters are; age, sex, weight and maternity of the bovine, also outside temperature. The problem in a farm is to constitute the correct mixture and amount of nutrition for each animal. Faulty nutrition will cause an insufficient feeding of the animal concluding in an unhealthy bovine. To solve this problem, a new automatic feeding machine is designed. Travelling of the machine is performed by four tires, which is pulled by a tractor. The carrier consists of eight bins, which each of them carries a nutrition type. Capacity of each unit is 250 kg. At the bottom of each chamber is a sensor measuring the weight of the food inside. A funnel is at the bottom of each chamber by which open/close function is controlled by a valve. Each animal will carry a RFID tag including ID on its ear. A receiver on the feeding machine will read this ID and by given previous information by the operator (veterinarian), the system will detect the amount of each nutrition unit which will be given to the selected animal for feeding. In the system, each bin will open its exit gate by the help of the valve under the control of PLC (Programmable Logic Controller). The amount of each nutrition type will be controlled by measuring the open/close time. The exit canals of the bins are collected in a reservoir. To achieve a homogenous nitration, the collected feed will be mixed by a worm gear. Further the mixture will be transported by a help of a funnel to the feeding unit of the animal. The feeding process can be performed in 100 seconds. After feeding of the animal, the tractor pulls the travelling machine to the next animal. By the help of this system animals can be feeded by right amount and mixture of nutrition

Keywords: bovine, feeding, nutrition, transportation, automatic

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
162 Investigation of the Cognition Factors of Fire Response Performances Based on Survey

Authors: Jingjing Yan, Gengen He, Anahid Basiri

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The design of an indoor navigation system for fire evacuation support requires not only physical feasibility but also a relatively thorough consideration of the human factors. This study has taken a survey to investigate the fire response performances (FRP) of the indoor occupants in age of 20s, virtually in an environment for their routine life, focusing on the aspects of indoor familiarity (spatial cognition), psychological stress and decision makings. For indoor familiarity, it is interested in three factors, i.e., the familiarity to exits and risky places as well as the satisfaction degree of the current indoor sign installation. According to the results, males have a higher average familiarity with the indoor exits while both genders have a relatively low level of risky place awareness. These two factors are positively correlated with the satisfaction degree of the current installation of the indoor signs, and this correlation is more evident for the exit familiarity. The integration of the height factor with the other two indoor familiarity factors can improve the degree of indoor sign satisfaction. For psychological stress, this study concentrates on the situated cognition of moving difficulty, nervousness, and speed reduction when using a bending posture during the fire evacuation to avoid smoke inhalation. The results have shown that both genders have a similar mid-level of hardness sensation. The females have a higher average level of nervousness, while males have a higher average level of speed reduction sensation. This study has assumed that the growing indoor spatial cognition can help ease the psychological hardness and nervousness. However, it only seems to be true after reaching a certain level. When integrating the effects from indoor familiarity and the other two psychological factors, the correlation to the sensation of speed change can be strengthened, based on a stronger positive correlation with the integrated factors. This study has also investigated the participants’ attitude to the navigation support during evacuation, and the majority of the participants have shown positive attitudes. For following the guidance under some extreme cases, i.e., changing to a longer path and to an alternative exit, the majority of the participants has shown the confidence of keeping trusting the guidance service. These decisions are affected by the combined influences from indoor familiarity, psychological stress, and attitude of using navigation service. For the decision time of the selected extreme cases, it costs more time in average for deciding to use a longer route than to use an alternative exit, and this situation is more evident for the female participants. This requires further considerations when designing a personalized smartphone-based navigation app. This study has also investigated the calming factors for people being trapped during evacuation. The top consideration is the distance to the nearest firefighters, and the following considerations are the current fire conditions in the surrounding environment and the locations of all firefighters. The ranking of the latter two considerations is very gender-dependent according to the results.

Keywords: fire response performances, indoor spatial cognition, situated cognition, survey analysis

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161 Intestacy and Business Continuity among Entrepreneurs in Ondo State, Nigeria

Authors: Igbekoyi Olusola Esther, Olurankinse Felix

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This paper examined the factors that militate against Will writing among entrepreneurs in Ondo State Nigeria and the effect of intestate death on business continuity after the exit of the entrepreneurs. The paper was written with a view to providing information on the reasons why intestate death is common among entrepreneurs in Ondo State and the effects on continuity of business after death of the initial owners. Data were obtained from primary source through the administration of questionnaires to entrepreneurs drawn from 50 registered manufacturing companies. These companies have been in existence for a minimum of 10 years with minimum staff strength of 20 workers each. These companies were selected using the purposive random sampling technique in order to capture firms that meet the requirements of this paper. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square and regression analysis. The findings of the paper revealed that administration of Will, traditional beliefs, Will execution procedures, age and non- admissibility of Wills in court are the major factors that militates against Will writing among entrepreneurs in Ondo State. It was also discovered that chaos and instability in business, reduction in sales and productivity, poor succession planning, polygamous nature of marriages, difficulty in sourcing for funds and gender preference are joint predictors of business continuity in event intestate death which is evident in the result where R2 =.954;(F 6, 26)= 89.644; (P < 0.01). The individual beta co-efficient, t- statistics and significance of each variable revealed that gender preference (.735; 7.031; .000) and poor succession plan (.402; 2.840; .009) have significant positive effect on business continuity; while reduction in sales and productivity (-.059; -.335; .740) and difficulty in sourcing for funds (-.217; -1.367; .188) have negative effect; other variables also have positive relationship but they are not significant. It is therefore concluded that business continuity after the exit of the entrepreneur is highly dependent on the rebuilding of confidence on Wills administration in ondo state Nigeria, proper succession planning and elimination of gender preferences.

Keywords: intestacy, business continuity, entrepreneurs, will, succession planning

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160 Optimum Dimensions of Hydraulic Structures Foundation and Protections Using Coupled Genetic Algorithm with Artificial Neural Network Model

Authors: Dheyaa W. Abbood, Rafa H. AL-Suhaili, May S. Saleh

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A model using the artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm technique is developed for obtaining optimum dimensions of the foundation length and protections of small hydraulic structures. The procedure involves optimizing an objective function comprising a weighted summation of the state variables. The decision variables considered in the optimization are the upstream and downstream cutoffs length sand their angles of inclination, the foundation length, and the length of the downstream soil protection. These were obtained for a given maximum difference in head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy.The optimization carried out subjected to constraints that ensure a safe structure against the uplift pressure force and sufficient protection length at the downstream side of the structure to overcome an excessive exit gradient. The Geo-studios oft ware, was used to analyze 1200 different cases. For each case the length of protection and volume of structure required to satisfy the safety factors mentioned previously were estimated. An ANN model was developed and verified using these cases input-output sets as its data base. A MatLAB code was written to perform a genetic algorithm optimization modeling coupled with this ANN model using a formulated optimization model. A sensitivity analysis was done for selecting the cross-over probability, the mutation probability and level ,the number of population, the position of the crossover and the weights distribution for all the terms of the objective function. Results indicate that the most factor that affects the optimum solution is the number of population required. The minimum value that gives stable global optimum solution of this parameters is (30000) while other variables have little effect on the optimum solution.

Keywords: inclined cutoff, optimization, genetic algorithm, artificial neural networks, geo-studio, uplift pressure, exit gradient, factor of safety

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159 Effect of Jet Diameter on Surface Quenching at Different Spatial Locations

Authors: C. Agrawal, R. Kumar, A. Gupta, B. Chatterjee

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An experimental investigation has been carried out to study the cooling of a hot horizontal Stainless Steel surface of 3 mm thickness, which has 800±10 °C initial temperature. A round water jet of 22 ± 1 °C temperature was injected over the hot surface through straight tube type nozzles of 2.5-4.8 mm diameter and 250 mm length. The experiments were performed for the jet exit to target surface spacing of 4 times of jet diameter and jet Reynolds number of 5000-24000. The effect of change in jet Reynolds number on the surface quenching has been investigated form the stagnation point to 16 mm spatial location.

Keywords: hot-surface, jet impingement, quenching, stagnation point

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158 Behavioral Mapping and Post-Occupancy Evaluation of Meeting-Point Design in an International Airport

Authors: Meng-Cong Zheng, Yu-Sheng Chen

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The meeting behavior is a pervasive kind of interaction, which often occurs between the passenger and the shuttle. However, the meeting point set up at the Taoyuan International Airport is too far from the entry-exit, often causing passengers to stop searching near the entry-exit. When the number of people waiting for the rush hour increases, it often results in chaos in the waiting area. This study tried to find out what is the key factor to promote the rapid finding of each other between the passengers and the pick-ups. Then we implemented several design proposals to improve the meeting behavior of passengers and pick-ups based on behavior mapping and post-occupancy evaluation to enhance their meeting efficiency in unfamiliar environments. The research base is the reception hall of the second terminal of Taoyuan International Airport. Behavioral observation and mapping are implemented on the entry of inbound passengers into the welcome space, including the crowd distribution of the people who rely on the separation wall in the waiting area, the behavior of meeting and the interaction between the inbound passengers and the pick-ups. Then we redesign the space planning and signage design based on post-occupancy evaluation to verify the effectiveness of space plan and signage design. This study found that passengers ignore existing meeting-point designs which are placed on distant pillars at both ends. The position of the screen affects the area where the receiver is stranded, causing the pick-ups to block the passenger's moving line. The pick-ups prefer to wait where it is easy to watch incoming passengers and where it is closest to the mode of transport they take when leaving. Large visitors tend to gather next to landmarks, and smaller groups have a wide waiting area in the lobby. The location of the meeting point chosen by the pick-ups is related to the view of the incoming passenger. Finally, this study proposes an improved design of the meeting point, setting the traffic information in it, so that most passengers can see the traffic information when they enter the country. At the same time, we also redesigned the pick-ups desk to improve the efficiency of passenger meeting.

Keywords: meeting point design, post-occupancy evaluation, behavioral mapping, international airport

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157 A Simulation-Based Investigation of the Smooth-Wall, Radial Gravity Problem of Granular Flow through a Wedge-Shaped Hopper

Authors: A. F. Momin, D. V. Khakhar

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Granular materials consist of particulate particles found in nature and various industries that, due to gravity flow, behave macroscopically like liquids. A fundamental industrial unit operation is a hopper with inclined walls or a converging channel in which material flows downward under gravity and exits the storage bin through the bottom outlet. The simplest form of the flow corresponds to a wedge-shaped, quasi-two-dimensional geometry with smooth walls and radially directed gravitational force toward the apex of the wedge. These flows were examined using the Mohr-Coulomb criterion in the classic work of Savage (1965), while Ravi Prakash and Rao used the critical state theory (1988). The smooth-wall radial gravity (SWRG) wedge-shaped hopper is simulated using the discrete element method (DEM) to test existing theories. DEM simulations involve the solution of Newton's equations, taking particle-particle interactions into account to compute stress and velocity fields for the flow in the SWRG system. Our computational results are consistent with the predictions of Savage (1965) and Ravi Prakash and Rao (1988), except for the region near the exit, where both viscous and frictional effects are present. To further comprehend this behaviour, a parametric analysis is carried out to analyze the rheology of wedge-shaped hoppers by varying the orifice diameter, wedge angle, friction coefficient, and stiffness. The conclusion is that velocity increases as the flow rate increases but decreases as the wedge angle and friction coefficient increase. We observed no substantial changes in velocity due to varying stiffness. It is anticipated that stresses at the exit result from the transfer of momentum during particle collisions; for this reason, relationships between viscosity and shear rate are shown, and all data are collapsed into a single curve. In addition, it is demonstrated that viscosity and volume fraction exhibit power law correlations with the inertial number and that all the data collapse into a single curve. A continuum model for determining granular flows is presented using empirical correlations.

Keywords: discrete element method, gravity flow, smooth-wall, wedge-shaped hoppers

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156 Automated Building Internal Layout Design Incorporating Post-Earthquake Evacuation Considerations

Authors: Sajjad Hassanpour, Vicente A. González, Yang Zou, Jiamou Liu

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Earthquakes pose a significant threat to both structural and non-structural elements in buildings, putting human lives at risk. Effective post-earthquake evacuation is critical for ensuring the safety of building occupants. However, current design practices often neglect the integration of post-earthquake evacuation considerations into the early-stage architectural design process. To address this gap, this paper presents a novel automated internal architectural layout generation tool that optimizes post-earthquake evacuation performance. The tool takes an initial plain floor plan as input, along with specific requirements from the user/architect, such as minimum room dimensions, corridor width, and exit lengths. Based on these inputs, firstly, the tool randomly generates different architectural layouts. Secondly, the human post-earthquake evacuation behaviour will be thoroughly assessed for each generated layout using the advanced Agent-Based Building Earthquake Evacuation Simulation (AB2E2S) model. The AB2E2S prototype is a post-earthquake evacuation simulation tool that incorporates variables related to earthquake intensity, architectural layout, and human factors. It leverages a hierarchical agent-based simulation approach, incorporating reinforcement learning to mimic human behaviour during evacuation. The model evaluates different layout options and provides feedback on evacuation flow, time, and possible casualties due to earthquake non-structural damage. By integrating the AB2E2S model into the automated layout generation tool, architects and designers can obtain optimized architectural layouts that prioritize post-earthquake evacuation performance. Through the use of the tool, architects and designers can explore various design alternatives, considering different minimum room requirements, corridor widths, and exit lengths. This approach ensures that evacuation considerations are embedded in the early stages of the design process. In conclusion, this research presents an innovative automated internal architectural layout generation tool that integrates post-earthquake evacuation simulation. By incorporating evacuation considerations into the early-stage design process, architects and designers can optimize building layouts for improved post-earthquake evacuation performance. This tool empowers professionals to create resilient designs that prioritize the safety of building occupants in the face of seismic events.

Keywords: agent-based simulation, automation in design, architectural layout, post-earthquake evacuation behavior

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155 A Preliminary Study on the Effects of Lung Impact on Ballistic Thoracic Trauma

Authors: Amy Pullen, Samantha Rodrigues, David Kieser, Brian Shaw

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The aim of the study was to determine if a projectile interacting with the lungs increases the severity of injury in comparison to a projectile interacting with the ribs or intercostal muscle. This comparative study employed a 10% gelatine based model with either porcine ribs or balloons embedded to represent a lung. Four sample groups containing five samples were evaluated; these were control (plain gel), intercostal impact, rib impact, and lung impact. Two ammunition natures were evaluated at a range of 10m; these were 5.56x45mm and 7.62x51mm. Aspects of projectile behavior were quantified including exiting projectile weight, location of yawing, projectile fragmentation and distribution, location and area of the temporary cavity, permanent cavity formation, and overall energy deposition. Major findings included the cavity showing a higher percentage of the projectile weight exit the block than the intercostal and ribs, but similar to the control for the 5.56mm ammunition. However, for the 7.62mm ammunition, the lung was shown to have a higher percentage of the projectile weight exit the block than the control, intercostal and ribs. The total weight of projectile fragments as a function of penetration depth revealed large fluctuations and significant intra-group variation for both ammunition natures. Despite the lack of a clear trend, both plots show that the lung leads to greater projectile fragments exiting the model. The lung was shown to have a later center of the temporary cavity than the control, intercostal and ribs for both ammunition types. It was also shown to have a similar temporary cavity volume to the control, intercostal and ribs for the 5.56mm ammunition and a similar temporary cavity to the intercostal for the 7.62mm ammunition The lung was shown to leave a similar projectile tract than the control, intercostal and ribs for both ammunition types. It was also shown to have larger shear planes than the control and the intercostal, but similar to the ribs for the 5.56mm ammunition, whereas it was shown to have smaller shear planes than the control but similar shear planes to the intercostal and ribs for the 7.62mm ammunition. The lung was shown to have less energy deposited than the control, intercostal and ribs for both ammunition types. This comparative study provides insights into the influence of the lungs on thoracic gunshot trauma. It indicates that the lungs limits projectile deformation and causes a later onset of yawing and subsequently limits the energy deposited along the wound tract creating a deeper and smaller cavity. This suggests that lung impact creates an altered pattern of local energy deposition within the target which will affect the severity of trauma.

Keywords: ballistics, lung, trauma, wounding

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154 Numerical Investigation of Plasma-Fuel System (PFS) for Coal Ignition and Combustion

Authors: Vladimir Messerle, Alexandr Ustimenko, Oleg Lavrichshev

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To enhance the efficiency of solid fuels’ use, to decrease the fuel oil rate in the thermal power plants fuel balance and to minimize harmful emissions, a plasma technology of coal ignition, gasification and incineration is successfully applied. This technology is plasma thermochemical preparation of fuel for burning (PTCPF). In the framework of this concept, some portion of pulverized solid fuel (PF) is separated from the main PF flow and undergone the activation by arc plasma in a specific chamber with plasma torch – PFS. The air plasma flame is a source of heat and additional oxidation, it provides a high-temperature medium enriched with radicals, where the fuel mixture is heated, volatile components of coal are extracted, and carbon is partially gasified. This active blended fuel can ignite the main PF flow supplied into the furnace. This technology provides the boiler start-up and stabilization of PF flame and eliminates the necessity for addition of highly reactive fuel. In the report, a model of PTCPF, implemented as a program PlasmaKinTherm for the PFS calculation is described. The model combines thermodynamic and kinetic methods for describing the process of PTCPF in PFS. The numerical investigation of operational parameters of PFS depending on the electric power of the plasma generator and steam coal ash content revealed the temperature and velocity of gas and coal particles, and concentrations of PTCPF products dependences on the PFS length. Main mechanisms of PTCPF were disclosed. It was found that in the range of electric power of plasma generator from 40 to 100 kW high ash bituminous coal, having consumption 1667 kg/h is ignited stably. High level of temperature (1740 K) and concentration of combustible components (44%) at the PFS exit is a confirmation of it. Augmentation in power of plasma generator results displacement maxima temperatures and speeds of PTCPF products upstream (in the direction of the plasma source). The maximum temperature and velocity vary in a narrow range of values and practically do not depend on the power of the plasma torch. The numerical study of indicators of the process of PTCPF depending on the ash content in the range of its values 20-70% demonstrated that at the exit of PFS concentration of combustible components decreases with an increase in coal ash, the temperature of the gaseous products is increasing, and coal carbon conversion rate is increased to a maximum value when the ash content of 60%, dramatically decreasing with further increase in the ash content.

Keywords: coal, efficiency, ignition, numerical modeling, plasma generator, plasma-fuel system

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153 Thermal Analysis of Photovoltaic Integrated Greenhouse Solar Dryer

Authors: Sumit Tiwari, Rohit Tripathi, G. N. Tiwari

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Present study focused on the utilization of solar energy by the help of photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer under forced mode. A single slope photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer has been proposed and thermal modelling has been developed. Various parameters have been calculated by thermal modelling such as greenhouse room temperature, cell temperature, crop temperature and air temperature at exit of greenhouse. Further cell efficiency, thermal efficiency, and overall thermal efficiency have been calculated for a typical day of May and November. It was found that system can generate equivalent thermal energy up to 7.65 kW and 6.66 kW per day for clear day of May and November respectively.

Keywords: characteristics curve, photovoltaic, thermal modelling, thermal efficiency

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152 The Current And Prospective Legal Regime of Non-Orbital Flights

Authors: Olga Koutsika

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The paper deals primarily with the question of the legal framework of non-orbital flights. The submission is based upon two pillars, starting with the ill-defined current legal regime and proceeding to further recommendations for the prospective legal regime for non-orbital flights. For this reason, the paper focuses on certain key legal aspects of the topic, including among other things liability, responsibility, jurisdiction, registration and authorisation. Furthermore, taking into consideration the hybrid nature of both the craft conducting non-orbital flights and of the flights themselves, which exit airspace but do not enter an orbit in outer space, the paper addresses each legal question from the perspective of both air law and space law and concludes to a number of recommendations regarding the applicability of each legal regime for each legal question individually.

Keywords: current regime, legal framework, non-orbital flights, prospective regime

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151 Data Refinement Enhances The Accuracy of Short-Term Traffic Latency Prediction

Authors: Man Fung Ho, Lap So, Jiaqi Zhang, Yuheng Zhao, Huiyang Lu, Tat Shing Choi, K. Y. Michael Wong

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Nowadays, a tremendous amount of data is available in the transportation system, enabling the development of various machine learning approaches to make short-term latency predictions. A natural question is then the choice of relevant information to enable accurate predictions. Using traffic data collected from the Taiwan Freeway System, we consider the prediction of short-term latency of a freeway segment with a length of 17 km covering 5 measurement points, each collecting vehicle-by-vehicle data through the electronic toll collection system. The processed data include the past latencies of the freeway segment with different time lags, the traffic conditions of the individual segments (the accumulations, the traffic fluxes, the entrance and exit rates), the total accumulations, and the weekday latency profiles obtained by Gaussian process regression of past data. We arrive at several important conclusions about how data should be refined to obtain accurate predictions, which have implications for future system-wide latency predictions. (1) We find that the prediction of median latency is much more accurate and meaningful than the prediction of average latency, as the latter is plagued by outliers. This is verified by machine-learning prediction using XGBoost that yields a 35% improvement in the mean square error of the 5-minute averaged latencies. (2) We find that the median latency of the segment 15 minutes ago is a very good baseline for performance comparison, and we have evidence that further improvement is achieved by machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). (3) By analyzing the feature importance score in XGBoost and calculating the mutual information between the inputs and the latencies to be predicted, we identify a sequence of inputs ranked in importance. It confirms that the past latencies are most informative of the predicted latencies, followed by the total accumulation, whereas inputs such as the entrance and exit rates are uninformative. It also confirms that the inputs are much less informative of the average latencies than the median latencies. (4) For predicting the latencies of segments composed of two or three sub-segments, summing up the predicted latencies of each sub-segment is more accurate than the one-step prediction of the whole segment, especially with the latency prediction of the downstream sub-segments trained to anticipate latencies several minutes ahead. The duration of the anticipation time is an increasing function of the traveling time of the upstream segment. The above findings have important implications to predicting the full set of latencies among the various locations in the freeway system.

Keywords: data refinement, machine learning, mutual information, short-term latency prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 169