Search results for: Delphi

Authors: Liam Fassam, Pouria Liravi, Jacquie Bridgman

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Introduction: The way we travel is rapidly changing, car ownership and use are declining among young people and those residents in urban areas. Also, the increasing role and popularity of sharing economy companies like Uber highlight a movement towards consuming transportation solutions as a service [Mobility of a Service]. This research looks to bridge the knowledge gap that exists between city mobility, smart cities, sharing economy and social entrepreneurship business models. Understanding of this subject is crucial for smart city design, as access to affordable transport has been identified as a contributing factor to social isolation leading to issues around health and wellbeing. Methodology: To explore the current fit vis-a-vis transportation business models and social impact this research undertook a comparative analysis between a systematic literature review and a Delphi study. The systematic literature review was undertaken to gain an appreciation of the current academic thinking on ‘social entrepreneurship and smart city mobility’. The second phase of the research initiated a Delphi study across a group of 22 participants to review future opinion on ‘how social entrepreneurship can assist city mobility sharing models?’. The Delphi delivered an initial 220 results, which once cross-checked for duplication resulted in 130. These 130 answers were sent back to participants to score importance against a 5-point LIKERT scale, enabling a top 10 listing of areas for shared user transports in society to be gleaned. One further round (4) identified no change in the coefficient of variant thus no further rounds were required. Findings: Initial results of the literature review returned 1,021 journals using the search criteria ‘social entrepreneurship and smart city mobility’. Filtering allied to ‘peer review’, ‘date’, ‘region’ and ‘Chartered associated of business school’ ranking proffered a resultant journal list of 75. Of these, 58 focused on smart city design, 9 on social enterprise in cityscapes, 6 relating to smart city network design and 3 on social impact, with no journals purporting the need for social entrepreneurship to be allied to city mobility. The future inclusion factors from the Delphi expert panel indicated that smart cities needed to include shared economy models in their strategies. Furthermore, social isolation born by costs of infrastructure needed addressing through holistic A-political social enterprise models, and a better understanding of social benefit measurement is needed. Conclusion: In investigating the collaboration between key public transportation stakeholders, a theoretical model of social enterprise transportation models that positively impact upon the smart city needs of reduced transport poverty and social isolation was formed. As such, the research has identified how a revised business model of Mobility of a Service allied to a social entrepreneurship can deliver impactful measured social benefits associated to smart city design existent research.

Keywords: social enterprise, collaborative transportation, new models of ownership, transport social impact

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Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai, Ya-Ping Li

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Tourism industry is highly depended on the natural environment and climate. Compared to other industries, it is more susceptible to environment and climate. Taiwan belongs to a sea island country and located in the subtropical monsoon zone. The events of climate variability, frequency of typhoons and rainfalls raged are caused regularly serious disaster. In traditional disaster assessment, it usually focuses on the disaster damage and risk assessment, which is short of the features from different industries to understand the impact of the restoring force in post-disaster resilience and the main factors that constitute resilience. The object of this study is based on disaster recovery experience of tourism area and to understand the main factors affecting the tourist area of disaster resilience. The combinations of literature review and interviews with experts are prepared an early indicator system of the disaster resilience. Then, it is screened through a Fuzzy Delphi Method and Analytic Network Process for weight analysis. Finally, this study will establish the tourism disaster resilience evaluation index system considering the Taiwan's tourism industry characteristics. We hope that be able to enhance disaster resilience after tourist areas and increases the sustainability of industrial development. It is expected to provide government departments the tourism industry as the future owner of the assets in extreme climates responses.

Keywords: resilience, Fuzzy Delphi Method, Analytic Network Process, industrial development

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Authors: Wann-Ming Wey

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In recent years, the problems of global climate change and natural disasters have induced the concerns and attentions of environmental sustainability issues for the public. Aside from the environmental planning efforts done for human environment, Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) has been widely used as one of the future solutions for the sustainable city development. In order to be more consistent with the urban sustainable development, the development of the built environment planning based on the concept of Green TOD which combines both TOD and Green Urbanism is adapted here. The connotation of the urban development under the green TOD including the design toward environment protect, the maximum enhancement resources and the efficiency of energy use, use technology to construct green buildings and protected areas, natural ecosystems and communities linked, etc. Green TOD is not only to provide the solution to urban traffic problems, but to direct more sustainable and greener consideration for future urban development planning and design. In this study, we use both the TOD and Green Urbanism concepts to proceed to the study of the built environment planning and design. Fuzzy Delphi Technique (FDT) is utilized to screen suitable criteria of the green TOD. Furthermore, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) were then developed to evaluate the criteria and prioritize the alternatives. The study results can be regarded as the future guidelines of the built environment planning and designing under green TOD development in Taiwan.

Keywords: green TOD, built environment, fuzzy delphi technique, quality function deployment, fuzzy analytic network process

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Authors: Meiju Chen, Chaoyu Guo, Chia Wei Tang

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The present study's purpose is twofold: first, to construct indicators for learning-oriented school education and, second, to conduct a survey to examine how learning-oriented education has been implemented in junior high schools after the launch of the 12-year compulsory curriculum. For indicator system construction, we compiled relevant literature to develop a preliminary indicator list model and then conducted two rounds of a questionnaire survey to gain comprehensive feedback from experts to finalize our indicator model. In the survey's first round, 12 experts were invited to evaluate the indicators' appropriateness. Based on the experts' consensus, we determined our final indicator list and used it to develop the Fuzzy Delphi questionnaire to finalize the indicator system and each indicator's relative value. For the fact-finding survey, we collected 454 valid samples to examine how the concept of learning-oriented education is adopted and implemented in the junior high school context. We also used this data in our importance-performance analysis to explore the strengths and weaknesses of school education in Taiwan. The results suggest that the indicator system for learning-oriented school education must consist of seven dimensions and 34 indicators. Among the seven dimensions, 'student learning' and 'curriculum planning and implementation' are the most important yet underperforming dimensions that need immediate improvement. We anticipate that the indicator system will be a useful tool for other countries' evaluation of schools' performance in learning-oriented education.

Keywords: learning-oriented education, school education, fuzzy Delphi method, importance-performance analysis

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Authors: Alia Aldarmaki, Ahmad Elshennawy

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There is a global shift in healthcare systems’ emphasizing engaging different stakeholders in selecting quality improvement initiatives and incorporating their preferences to improve the healthcare efficiency and outcomes. Although experts bring scientific knowledge based on the scientific model and their personal experience, other stakeholders can bring new insights and information into the decision-making process. This study attempts to explore the impact of incorporating different stakeholders’ preference in identifying the most significant criteria that should be considered in healthcare for electing the improvement projects. A Framework based on a modified Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) was built. In addition to, the subject matter experts, doctors/physicians, nurses, administrators, and managers groups contribute to the selection process. The research identifies potential criteria for evaluating projects in healthcare, then utilizes FDM to capture expertise knowledge. The first round in FDM is intended to validate the identified list of criteria from experts; which includes collecting additional criteria from experts that the literature might have overlooked. When an acceptable level of consensus has been reached, a second round is conducted to obtain experts’ and other related stakeholders’ opinions on the appropriate weight of each criterion’s importance using linguistic variables. FDM analyses eliminate or retain the criteria to produce a final list of the critical criteria to select improvement projects in healthcare. Finally, reliability and validity were investigated using Cronbach’s alpha and factor analysis, respectively. Two case studies were carried out in a public hospital in the United Arab Emirates to test the framework. Both cases demonstrate that even though there were common criteria between the experts and the stakeholders, still stakeholders’ perceptions bring additional critical criteria into the evaluation process, which can impact the outcomes. Experts selected criteria related to strategical and managerial aspects, while the other participants preferred criteria related to social aspects such as health and safety and patients’ satisfaction. The health and safety criterion had the highest important weight in both cases. The analysis showed that Cronbach’s alpha value is 0.977 and all criteria have factor loading greater than 0.3. In conclusion, the inclusion of stakeholders’ perspectives is intended to enhance stakeholders’ engagement, improve transparency throughout the decision process, and take robust decisions.

Keywords: Fuzzy Delphi Method, fuzzy number, healthcare, stakeholders

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Authors: Jo, Eui Chang, Shin, Heekang, Mun, A. Young , Kim, Hong Kyu

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Regarding change on population and family structure in Korea after the 1980s, there has been a rapid change of low fertility, graying and increase of single household that cannot be found in any other parts of the world. With the result of total population residence by the National Statistical Office, Korea will hold 52,160,065 people in 2030 and reduction is predicted and from 2025 people above the age of 65 will take 20% of the total population, which means the entry of a super aging society. Also, average number in a family will be 2.71 in 2015 and decrease to 2.33 in 2035. On the other hand, proportion of single and two person household will be 53.7% in 2015 and it will increase up to 68.4% in 2035. Old population will increase greatly, single and two person household will take 2/3 of the total households. Delphi research was processed in 3 steps on 40 professionals about the importance and changing factors of residential environment of apartment followed by the change of population structure. For interior plan, space variety, variability, safety, convenient installation, eco-friendly installation, and IT installation were important factors for construction plan, plan on aged and single households, convenient installation, safety installation, eco-friendly installation for subdivision plan, education/child care facility, parks/gymnasium facility, community facility, and accessibility of transportation were predicted as important factors.

Keywords: change of population structure, super-graying, change of residential environment of apartment, single household, interior plan, construction plan, subdivision plan, Delphi research

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Authors: Vafa Delphi, Maryam Delphi, Talieh Zarifian, Enayatolah Bakhshi

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Background and Aim: Bilingualism is a common phenomenon in many countries of the world and May be consistent consonant errors in the speech of bilingual children. The aim of this study was to evaluate Phonological skills include occurrence proportion, frequency and type of phonological processes in Persian-Arabic speaking children in Ahvaz city, the center of Khuzestan. Method: This study is descriptive-analytical and cross-sectional. Twenty-eight children aged 36-48 months were divided into two groups Persian monolingual and Persian-Arabic bilingual: (14 participants in each group). Sampling was recruited randomly based on inclusion criteria from kindergartens of the Ahvaz city in Iran. The tool of this study was the Persian Phonological Test (PPT), a subtest of Persian Diagnostic Evaluation Articulation and Phonological test. In this test, Phonological processes were investigated in two groups: structure and substitution processes. Data was investigated using SPSS software and the U Mann-Whitney test. Results: The results showed that the proportion occurrence of substitution process was significantly different between two groups of monolingual and bilingual (P=0/001), But the type of phonological processes didn’t show a significant difference in both monolingual and bilingual children of the Persian-Arabic.The frequency of phonological processes is greater in bilingual children than monolingual children. Conclusion: The study showed that bilingualism has no effect on type of phonological processes, but this can be effective on the frequency of processes. Since the type of phonological processes in bilingual children is similar to monolingual children So we can conclude the Persian_arabic bilingual children's phonological system is similar to monolingual children.

Keywords: Persian-Arabic bilingual child, phonological processes, the proportion occurrence of syllable structure, the proportion occurrence of substitution

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Authors: Fatemeh Daneshvartarigh

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New technologies and applications have radically altered construction techniques in recent years. In order to anticipate how the building will act, perform, and appear, these technologies encompass a wide range of visualization, simulation, and analytic tools. These new technologies and applications have a considerable impact on completing construction projects in today's (architecture, engineering and construction)AEC industries. The rate of changes in BIM-related topics is different worldwide, and it depends on many factors, e.g., the national policies of each country. Therefore, there is a need for comprehensive research focused on a specific area with common characteristics. Therefore, one of the necessary measures to increase the use of this new approach is to examine the challenges and obstacles facing it. In this research, based on the Delphi method, at first, the background and related literature are reviewed. Then, using the knowledge obtained from the literature, a primary questionnaire is generated and filled by experts who are selected using snowball sampling. It covered the experts' attitudes towards implementing BIM in renovation projects and their view of the benefits and obstacles in this regard. By analyzing the primary questionnaire, the second group of experts is selected among the participants to be interviewed. The results are analyzed using Theme analysis. Six themes, including Management support, staff resistance, client willingness, Cost of software and implementation, the difficulty of implementation, and other reasons, are obtained. Then a final questionnaire is generated from the themes and filled by the same group of experts. The result is analyzed by the Fuzzy Delphi method, showing the exact ranking of the obtained themes. The final results show that management support, staff resistance, and client willingness are the most critical barrier to BIM usage in renovation projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, BIM implementation, BIM barriers, BIM in renovation

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Authors: Qiaowen Lin

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The 3D cadastre is an inevitable choice to meet the needs of real cadastral management. Nowadays, more attention is given to the technical aspects of 3D cadastre, resulting in the imbalance within this field. To fulfill this research gap, the stakeholder, which has been regarded as the determining factor in cadastral change has been studied. Delphi method, Michael rating, and stakeholder mapping are used to identify and classify the stakeholders in 3D cadastre. It is concluded that the project managers should pay more attention to the interesting appeal of the key stakeholders and different coping strategies should be adopted to facilitate the transition to 3D cadastre.

Keywords: stakeholders, three dimension, cadastre, transtion

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Authors: J. Van der Walt, N. A. Plastow, M. Unger

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Gross and fine motor skill difficulties among children affect their ability to learn and progress in school. Research indicates that children in low socio-economic areas are at a higher risk of motor skill difficulties, while therapy resources are limited. The Hopscotch motor skill programme is a well-researched accessible in-school intervention developed by occupational and physiotherapists through complex intervention development. The development stage of the complex intervention development model firstly included a prevalence study in a low-resourced area in the West Coast of South Africa, indicating a high prevalence with significant motor skill difficulties among pre-school children at 14.5% with fine motor skill difficulties at 24.6%. A scoping review identifies motor skill interventions for pre-school children and a proposed a framework of fundamental concepts to consider when developing a motor skill intervention. a Delphi-study considered the framework and encouraged collaboration between therapists and educators to make the programme accessible, resource and cost effective, specifically geared towards a rural, low resourced area. The results from the Delphi study, together with the proposed framework from the scoping review was used to develop the Hopscotch programme, adopting a task-shifting approach. The eight-week small-group programme is facilitated by teachers with the support of therapists. The programme aims to improve the motor skills of pre-school aged children with motor skill difficulties to promote academic readiness through obstacle courses, ball skill games and fine motor games and crafts. A randomised controlled trial is planned as a next stage to determine the preliminary effect of the programme on the motor and early academic skills of pre-school children.

Keywords: accesible learning, motor skill intervention, school readiness, task shifting

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Authors: Muhammad Saqib Manzoor, Camille Dickson-Deane, Prashan Karunaratne

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Cobb-Douglas production (utility) function is a fundamental function widely used in economics teaching and research. The key reason is the function's characteristics to describe the actual production using inputs like labour and capital. The characteristics of the function like returns to scale, marginal, and diminishing marginal productivities are covered in the introductory units in both microeconomics and macroeconomics with a 2-dimensional static visualisation of the function. However, less insight is provided regarding three-dimensional surface, changes in the curvature properties due to returns to scale, the linkage of the short-run production function with its long-run counterpart and marginal productivities, the level curves, and the constraint optimisation. Since (freshman) learners have diverse prior knowledge and cognitive skills, the existing “one size fits all” approach is not very helpful. The aim of this study is to bridge this gap by introducing technological intervention with interactive animations of the three-dimensional surface and sequential unveiling of the characteristics mentioned above using Python software. A small classroom intervention has helped students enhance their analytical and visualisation skills towards active and authentic learning of this topic. However, to authenticate the strength of our approach, a quasi-Delphi study will be conducted to ask domain-specific experts, “What value to the learning process in economics is there using a 2-dimensional static visualisation compared to using a 3-dimensional dynamic visualisation?’ Here three perspectives of the intervention were reviewed by a panel comprising of novice students, experienced students, novice instructors, and experienced instructors in an effort to determine the learnings from each type of visualisations within a specific domain of knowledge. The value of this approach is key to suggesting different pedagogical methods which can enhance learning outcomes.

Keywords: cobb-douglas production function, quasi-Delphi method, effective teaching and learning, 3D-visualisations

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Authors: Ladda Silanoi

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One of the main purposes in establishment of ASEAN Community is educational development. All countries in ASEAN shall then prepare for plans and strategies for country development. Therefore, Thailand set up the policy concerning educational management for all educational institutions to understand about ASEAN Community. However, some educational institutions lack of precision in determining the curriculums of ASEAN Community, especially schools in rural areas, for example, schools along the common border with Laos, and Cambodia. One of the effective methods to promote the precision in ASEAN Community is to design additional learning courses. The important process of additional learning courses design is to provide learning outcomes of ASEAN Community for course syllabus determination. Therefore, the researcher is interested in developing teachers in the schools of common border with Laos, and Cambodia to provide learning outcomes and learning process. This research has the objective of developing the learning outcomes and learning process management of basic education along Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia Common Border for the ASEAN Community Preparation. Research methodology consists of 2 steps. Step 1: Delphi Technique was used to provide guidelines in development of learning outcomes and learning process. Step 2: Action Research procedures was employed to study the result of additional learning courses design. Result of the study: By using Delphi technique, consensus is expected to be achieved, from 50 experts in the study within 3 times of the survey. The last survey found that experts’ opinions were compatible on every item (inter-quartile range = 0) leading to the arrangement of training courses in step of Action Research. The result from the workshop found that teachers in schools of Srisaket and Bueng Kan provinces could be able to provide learning outcomes of all courses.

Keywords: learning outcome and learning process, basic education, ASEAN Community preparation, Thailand Laos and Cambodia common border

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Authors: Younis Jabarzadeh, Rahim Sarvari, Negar Ahmadi Alghalandis

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Entrepreneurship at both individual and organizational level is one of the most driving forces in economic development and leads to growth and competition, job generation and social development. Especially in developing countries, the role of entrepreneurship in economic and social prosperity is more emphasized. But the effect of global economic development on the environment is undeniable, especially in negative ways, and there is a need to rethink current business models and the way entrepreneurs act to introduce new businesses to address and embed environmental issues in order to achieve sustainable development. In this paper, green or sustainable entrepreneurship is addressed in Iran to identify challenges and barriers entrepreneurs in the economic and social sectors face in developing green business solutions. Sustainable or green entrepreneurship has been gaining interest among scholars in recent years and addressing its challenges and barriers need much more attention to fill the gap in the literature and facilitate the way those entrepreneurs are pursuing. This research comprised of two main phases: qualitative and quantitative. At qualitative phase, after a thorough literature review, fuzzy Delphi method is utilized to verify those challenges and barriers by gathering a panel of experts and surveying them. In this phase, several other contextually related factors were added to the list of identified barriers and challenges mentioned in the literature. Then, at the quantitative phase, Interpretive Structural Modeling is applied to construct a network of interactions among those barriers identified at the previous phase. Again, a panel of subject matter experts comprised of academic and industry experts was surveyed. The results of this study can be used by policymakers in both the public and industry sector, to introduce more systematic solutions to eliminate those barriers and help entrepreneurs overcome challenges of sustainable entrepreneurship. It also contributes to the literature as the first research in this type which deals with the barriers of sustainable entrepreneurship and explores their interaction.

Keywords: green entrepreneurship, barriers, fuzzy Delphi method, interpretive structural modeling

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Authors: L. V. S. S. Phaneendra Bolem, S. Shankar

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Low Volume Rural Roads (LVRRs) constitute an integral component of the road system in all countries. These encompass all aspects of the social and economic development of rural communities. It is known that on a worldwide basis the number of low traffic roads far exceeds the length of high volume roads. Across India, 90% of the roads are LVRRs, and they often form the most important link in terms of providing access to educational, medical, recreational and commercial activities in local and regional areas. In the recent past, Government of India (GoI), with the initiation of the ambitious programme namely 'Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana' (PMGSY) gave greater importance to LVRRs realizing their role in economic development of rural communities. The vast expansion of the road network has brought connectivity to the rural areas of the country. Further, it is noticed that due to increasing axle loads and lack of timely maintenance, is accelerated the process of deterioration of LVRRs. In addition to this due to limited budget for maintenance of these roads systematic and scientific approach in utilizing the available resources has been necessitated. This would enable better prioritization and ranking for the maintenance and make ‘all-weather roads’. Taking this into account the present study has adopted a multi-criteria approach. The multi-criteria approach includes parameters such as social, economic, environmental and pavement condition as the main criterion and some sub-criteria to find the best suitable parameters and their weight. For this purpose the expert’s opinion survey was carried out using Delphi Technique (DT) considering Likert scale, pairwise comparison and ranking methods and entire data was analyzed. Finally, this study developed the maintenance criterion considering the socio-economic, environmental and pavement condition parameters for effective maintenance of low volume roads based on the engineering judgment.

Keywords: Delphi technique, experts opinion survey, low volume rural road maintenance, multi criteria analysis

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Authors: Priyanka Botny Srinath, Alessandro Suglia, Mel McKendrick

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Background: Organizational cultural studies integrate sociology and anthropology, portraying man as a creator of symbols, languages, beliefs, and ideologies -essentially, a creator and manager of meaning. In our research, we leverage analytical measures to discern whether an organization embodies a singular culture or a myriad of subcultures. Fast-forward to 2023, our research thesis focuses on digitally measuring culture, coining it as the "Work Culture Quotient." This entails conceptually mapping common experiential patterns to provide executives insights into the digital organization journey, aiding in understanding their current position and identifying future steps. Objectives: Finding the new age skills that help in defining the culture; understand the implications of post-COVID effects; derive a digital framework for measuring skillsets. Method: We conducted two comprehensive Delphi studies to distill essential insights. Delphi 1: Through a thematic analysis of interviews with 20 high-level leaders representing companies across diverse regions -India, Japan, the US, Canada, Morocco, and Uganda- we identified 20 key skills critical for cultivating a robust organizational culture. The skills are -influence, self-confidence, optimism, empathy, leadership, collaboration and cooperation, developing others, commitment, innovativeness, leveraging diversity, change management, team capabilities, self-control, digital communication, emotional awareness, team bonding, communication, problem solving, adaptability, and trustworthiness. Delphi 2: Subject matter experts were asked to complete a questionnaire derived from the thematic analysis in stage 1 to formalise themes and draw consensus amongst experts on the most important workplace skills. Results: The thematic analysis resulted in 20 workplace employee skills being identified. These skills were all included in the Delphi round 2 questionnaire. From the outputs, we analysed the data using R Studio for arriving at agreement and consensus, we also used sum of squares method to compare various agreements to extract various themes with a threshold of 80% agreements. This yielded three themes at over 80% agreement (leadership, collaboration and cooperation, communication) and three further themes at over 60% agreement (commitment, empathy, trustworthiness). From this, we selected five questionnaires to be included in the primary data collection phase, and these will be paired with the digital footprints to provide a workplace culture quotient. Implications: The findings from these studies bear profound implications for decision-makers, revolutionizing their comprehension of organizational culture. Tackling the challenge of mapping the digital organization journey involves innovative methodologies that probe not only external landscapes but also internal cultural dynamics. This holistic approach furnishes decision-makers with a nuanced understanding of their organizational culture and visualizes pivotal skills for employee growth. This clarity enables informed choices resonating with the organization's unique cultural fabric. Anticipated outcomes transcend mere individual cultural measurements, aligning with organizational goals to unveil a comprehensive view of culture, exposing artifacts and depth. Armed with this profound understanding, decision-makers gain tangible evidence for informed decision-making, strategically leveraging cultural strengths to cultivate an environment conducive to growth, innovation, and enduring success, ultimately leading to measurable outcomes.

Keywords: leadership, cooperation, collaboration, teamwork, work culture

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Authors: Jing Jiang, Yuguang Gao, Yang Yu

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Facing increasingly challenging insurance payment pressures, the Chinese healthcare system is undergoing significant transformations, akin to the implementation of DRG payment models by the United States' Medicare. Consequently, there is a pressing need for Chinese hospitals to establish optimizations in departmental operations tailored to the ongoing healthcare payment reforms. This abstract delineates the meticulous construction of a scientifically rigorous and comprehensive index system at the departmental level in China strategically aligned with the evolving landscape of healthcare payment reforms. Methodologically, it integrates key process areas and maturity assessment theories, synthesizing relevant literature and industry standards to construct a robust framework and indicator pool. Employing the Delphi method, consultations with 21 experts were conducted, revealing a collective demonstration of high enthusiasm, authority, and coordination in designing the index system. The resulting model comprises four primary indicators -technical capabilities, cost-effectiveness, operational efficiency, and disciplinary potential- supported by 14 secondary indicators and 23 tertiary indicators with varied coefficient adjustment for department types (platform or surgical). The application of this evaluation system in a Chinese hospital within the northeastern region yielded results aligning seamlessly with the actual operational scenario. In conclusion, the index system comprehensively considers the integrity and effectiveness of structural, process, and outcome indicators and stands as a comprehensive reflection of the collective expertise of the engaged experts, manifesting in a model designed to elevate the operational management of hospital departments. Its strategic alignment with healthcare payment reforms holds practical significance in guiding departmental development positioning, brand cultivation, and talent development.

Keywords: Chinese healthcare system, Delphi method, departmental management, evaluation indicators, hospital operations, weight coefficients

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Authors: H. Akhloufi, M. Hulscher, J. M. Prins, I. H. Van Der Sijs, D. Melles, A. Verbon

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Background: A timely switch from intravenous to oral antibiotic therapy has many advantages, such as reduced incidence of IV-line related infections, a decreased hospital length of stay and less workload for healthcare professionals with equivalent patient safety. Additionally, numerous studies have demonstrated significant decreases in costs of a timely intravenous to oral antibiotic therapy switch, while maintaining efficacy and safety. However, a considerable variation in iv to oral antibiotic switch therapy criteria has been described in literature. Here, we report the development of a set of iv to oral switch criteria that are generally applicable in all hospitals. Material/methods: A RAND-modified Delphi procedure, which was composed of 3 rounds, was used. This Delphi procedure is a widely used structured process to develop consensus using multiple rounds of questionnaires within a qualified panel of selected experts. The international expert panel was multidisciplinary and composed out of clinical microbiologists, infectious disease consultants and clinical pharmacists. This panel of 19 experts appraised 6 major intravenous to oral antibiotic switch therapy criteria and operationalized these criteria using 41 measurable conditions extracted from the literature. The procedure to select a concise set of iv to oral switch criteria included 2 questionnaire rounds and a face-to-face meeting. Results: The procedure resulted in the selection of 16 measurable conditions, which operationalize 6 major intravenous to oral antibiotic switch therapy criteria. The following 6 major switch therapy criteria were selected: (1) Vital signs should be good or improving when bad. (2) Signs and symptoms related to the infection have to be resolved or improved. (3) The gastrointestinal tract has to be intact and functioning. (4) The oral route should not be compromised. (5) Absence of contra-indicated infections. (6) An oral variant of the antibiotic with good bioavailability has to exist. Conclusions: This systematic stepwise method which combined evidence and expert opinion resulted in a feasible set of 6 major intravenous to oral antibiotic switch therapy criteria operationalized by 16 measurable conditions. This set of early antibiotic iv to oral switch criteria can be used in daily practice in all adult hospital patients. Future use in audits and as rules in computer assisted decision support systems will lead to improvement of antimicrobial steward ship programs.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, antibiotic stewardship, intravenous to oral, switch therapy

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Authors: Darren J. Ellis

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This paper investigates the key industry-level consequences and future prospects for the global airline industry of the requirement for airlines to have a home base. This industry context results in geographical location playing a central role in determining how and where international airlines can operate, and the extent to which their international networks can develop. Data from a five stage mixed-methods Delphi study into the global airline industry’s likely future trajectory conducted in 2013 and 2014 are utilized to better understand the likelihood and consequences of home base requirements changing in future. Expert views and forecasts were collected to gauge core industry trends over a ten year timeframe. Attempts to change or bypass this industry requirement have not been successful to date outside of the European single air market. Europe remains the only prominent exception to the general rule in this regard. Most of the industry is founded on air space sovereignty, the nationality rule, and the bilateral system of traffic rights. Europe’s exceptionalism has seen it evolve into a single air market with characteristics similar to a nation-state, rather than to become a force for wider industry change and regional multilateralism. Europe has indeed become a key actor in global aviation, but Europe seems to now be part of the industry’s status quo, not a vehicle for substantially wider multilateralism around the world. The findings from this research indicate that the bilateral system is not viewed by most study experts as disappearing or substantially weakening in the foreseeable future. However, regional multilateralism was also viewed as progressively taking hold in the industry in future, demonstrating that for most industry experts the two are not seen as mutually exclusive but rather as being able to co-exist with each other. This reality ensures that geographical location will continue to play an important role in the global airline industry in future and that, home base requirements will not disappear any time soon either. Even moves in some aviation jurisdictions to dilute nationality requirements for airlines, and instead replace ownership and control restrictions with principal place of business tests, do not ultimately free airlines from their home base. Likewise, an expansion of what constitutes home base to include a regional grouping of countries – again, a currently uncommon reality in global aviation – does not fundamentally weaken the continued relevance of geographical location to the global industry’s future growth and development realities and prospects.

Keywords: airline industry, air space sovereignty, geographical location, home base

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Authors: Liane J. Ioannou, Jonathan Serpell, Cino Bendinelli, David Walters, Jenny Gough, Dean Lisewski, Win Meyer-Rochow, Julie Miller, Duncan Topliss, Bill Fleming, Stephen Farrell, Andrew Kiu, James Kollias, Mark Sywak, Adam Aniss, Linda Fenton, Danielle Ghusn, Simon Harper, Aleksandra Popadich, Kate Stringer, David Watters, Susannah Ahern

Abstract:

BACKGROUND: There are significant variations in the management, treatment and outcomes of thyroid cancer, particularly in the role of: diagnostic investigation and pre-treatment scanning; optimal extent of surgery (total or hemi-thyroidectomy); use of active surveillance for small low-risk cancers; central lymph node dissections (therapeutic or prophylactic); outcomes following surgery (e.g. recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy, hypocalcaemia, hypoparathyroidism); post-surgical hormone, calcium and vitamin D therapy; and provision and dosage of radioactive iodine treatment. A proven strategy to reduce variations in the outcome and to improve survival is to measure and compare it using high-quality clinical registry data. Clinical registries provide the most effective means of collecting high-quality data and are a tool for quality improvement. Where they have been introduced at a state or national level, registries have become one of the most clinically valued tools for quality improvement. To benchmark clinical care, clinical quality registries require systematic measurement at predefined intervals and the capacity to report back information to participating clinical units. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a core set clinical indicators that enable measurement and reporting of quality of care for patients with thyroid cancer. We hypothesise that measuring clinical quality indicators, developed to identify differences in quality of care across sites, will reduce variation and improve patient outcomes and survival, thereby lessening costs and healthcare burden to the Australian community. METHOD: Preparatory work and scoping was conducted to identify existing high quality, clinical guidelines and best practice for thyroid cancer both nationally and internationally, as well as relevant literature. A bi-national panel was invited to participate in a modified Delphi process. Panelists were asked to rate each proposed indicator on a Likert scale of 1–9 in a three-round iterative process. RESULTS: A total of 236 potential quality indicators were identified. One hundred and ninety-two indicators were removed to reflect the data capture by the Australian and New Zealand Thyroid Cancer Registry (ANZTCR) (from diagnosis to 90-days post-surgery). The remaining 44 indicators were presented to the panelists for voting. A further 21 indicators were later added by the panelists bringing the total potential quality indicators to 65. Of these, 21 were considered the most important and feasible indicators to measure quality of care in thyroid cancer, of which 12 were recommended for inclusion in the final set. The consensus indicator set spans the spectrum of care, including: preoperative; surgery; surgical complications; staging and post-surgical treatment planning; and post-surgical treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a core set of quality indicators to measure quality of care in thyroid cancer. This indicator set can be applied as a tool for internal quality improvement, comparative quality reporting, public reporting and research. Inclusion of these quality indicators into monitoring databases such as clinical quality registries will enable opportunities for benchmarking and feedback on best practice care to clinicians involved in the management of thyroid cancer.

Keywords: clinical registry, Delphi survey, quality indicators, quality of care

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Ostad Ali Naghi Kashani, Esfanji Elia

Abstract:

Nowadays, the amounts of companies which tend to have an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) application are increasing particularly in developing countries like Iran. ERP projects are expensive, time consuming, and complex, in addition the failure rate is high among these projects. It is important to know whether these projects could meet their goals or not. Furthermore, the area which should be improved should be identified. In this paper we made a framework to evaluate ERP projects success implementation. First, based on literature review we made a framework based on BSC model, financial, customer, processes, learning and knowledge, because of the importance of change management it was added to model. Then an organization was divided in three layers. We choose corporate, managerial, and operational levels. Then to find criteria to assess each aspect, we use Delphi method in two rounds. And for the second round we made a questionnaire and did some statistical tasks on them. Based on the statistical results some of them are accepted and others are rejected.

Keywords: ERP, BSC, ERP project evaluation, IT projects

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Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

Abstract:

Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: risk, BIM, fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects

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Authors: R. Karami, A. Gharaei

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate ecotourism status in Chabahar coastal zone using swot analysis and strategic planning. Firstly, the current status of region was studied by literature review, field survey and statistical analysis. Then strengths and weaknesses (internal factors) were identified as well as opportunities and threats (external factors) using Delphi Method. Based on the obtained results, the total score of 2.46 in IFE matrix and 2.33 in the EFE matrix represents poor condition related to the internal and external factors respectively. This condition means both external and internal factors have not been utilized properly and the zone needs defensive plan; thus appropriate planning and organizational management practices are required to deal with these factors. Furthermore strategic goals, objectives and action plans in short, medium and long term schedule were formulated in attention to swot analysis.

Keywords: tourism, SWOT analysis, strategic planning, Chabahar

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Authors: Ying-Chu Chen

Abstract:

Waste to energy (WTE) technology is becoming increasingly important throughout the world. There are 24 WTE plants in operation in Taiwan that might be ranked the top in density (number of MSW incinerators/area) in the world. Many problems exist in WTE plants, such as low-quality construction, leakage of pipelines, irregular feedings, and lack of maintenance. These problems should be identified and analyzed for effective implementation and efficient operation of WTE plants. This research applies a fault tree analysis (FTA) to identify failures and evaluate their effects on the operation of WTE plants from a technical point of view. Five subsystems of a WTE plant were defined, including loading system, incineration system, effluent disposal system, structural components, and control system. This research results proved that FTA is suitable for WTE evaluation and is an effective analysis tool for technical evaluation in the field of WTE technology.

Keywords: delphi method, fault tree approach, municipal solid waste, waste to energy, WTE

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Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

Abstract:

For the dearth of reliable cardinal numerical data, the linked phenomena in productivity indices such as operational costs and company turnovers, etc. could not be investigated. This would not give us insight to the root of productivity problems at unique sites. So, ordinal ranking by professionals who were most directly involved with construction sites was applied for Kendall’s concordance. Responses gathered from independent architects, builders/engineers, and quantity surveyors were herein analyzed. They were responses based on factors that affect sites productivity, and these factors were categorized as head office factors, resource management effectiveness factors, motivational factors, and training/skill development factors. It was found that productivity is low and has to be improved in order to facilitate Nigerian efforts in bridging its infrastructure deficit. The significance of this work is underlined with the Kendall’s coefficient of concordance of 0.78, while remedial measures must be emphasized to stimulate better productivity. Further detailed study can be undertaken by using Fuzzy logic analysis on wider Delphi survey.

Keywords: factors, Kendall's coefficient of concordance, magnitude of agreement, percentage magnitude of dichotomy, ranking variables

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Authors: Israel Becerril Rosales, Manuel González De La Rosa, Gerardo Villa Sánchez

Abstract:

In this work, the effects that produce not having a good inventory management is analyzed, in addition of the way that how it affects the storage costs. The research began conducting the historical analysis about stored products, its storage capacity, and distribution. The results were not optimal, since in all its raw materials (RM) have overstocking, the warehouse capacity is only used by 61%, does not have a specific place for each of its RM, causing that the delivery times increases and makes difficult a cyclical inventory. These shortcomings allowed to view and select as design alternatives the inventory ABC, so that depending on the consumption of each RM would be redistributed by using economic amount requested. Also, the Delphi method to ensure the practical applicability of the proposed tool was used, taking in account comments and suggestions of the involved experts, as well as the compliance of NOM-059-SSA1-2015 good manufacturing practices of drug. With the actions implemented, the utilization rate drops of 61% to 32% capacity, it shows that the warehouse was not designed properly due to there is not an industrial engineering area.

Keywords: lead time, improve delivery, storage costs, inventory management

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Authors: Christine Hough, Eddie Abbott-Halpin, Tariq Mahmood, Jessica Giles

Abstract:

This paper draws together the findings from two research studies, each undertaken with cohorts of South Asian Muslim respondents located in the North of England between 2017 and 2019. The first study, entitled Faith Family and Crime (FFC), investigated the extent to which a Muslim family’s social and health well-being is affected by a family member’s involvement in the Criminal Justice System (CJS). This study captured a range of data through a detailed questionnaire and structured interviews. The data from the interview transcripts were analysed using open coding and an application of aspects of the grounded theory approach. The findings provide clear evidence that the respondents were neither well-informed nor supported throughout the processes of the CJS, from arrest to post-sentencing. These experiences gave rise to mental and physical stress, potentially unfair sentencing, and a significant breakdown in communication within the respondents’ families. They serve to highlight a particular aspect of complexity in the current needs of those South Asian Muslim families who find themselves involved in the CJS and is closely connected to family structure, culture, and faith. The second study, referred to throughout this paper as #ImamsBritain (that provides the majority of content for this paper), explores how Imams, in their role as community faith leaders, can best address the complex – and changing - needs of South Asian Muslims families, such as those that emerged in the findings from FFC. The changing socio-economic and political climates of the last thirty or so years have brought about significant changes to the lives of Muslim families, and these have created more complex levels of social, cultural, and faith-based needs for families and individuals. As a consequence, Imams now have much greater demands made of them, and so their role has undergone far-reaching changes in response to this. The #ImamsBritain respondents identified a pressing need to develop a wider range of pastoral and counseling skills, which they saw as extending far beyond the traditional role of the Imam as a religious teacher and spiritual guide. The #ImamsBritain project was conducted with a cohort of British Imams in the North of England. Data was collected firstly through a questionnaire that related to the respondents’ training and development needs and then analysed in depth using the Delphi approach. Through Delphi, the data were scrutinized in depth using interpretative content analysis. The findings from this project reflect the respondents’ individual perceptions of the kind of training and development they need to fulfill their role in 21st Century Britain. They also provide a unique framework for constructing a professional guide for Imams in Great Britain. The discussions and critical analyses in this paper draw on the discourses of professionalization and pastoral care and relevant reports and reviews on Imam training in Europe and Canada.

Keywords: criminal justice system, faith and culture, Imams, Muslim community leadership, professionalization, South Asian family structure

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Authors: Nahid Tavakoli, Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Ali Samimi

Abstract:

In earthquake situation, medical response communities such as field and referral hospitals are challenged with injured victims’ identification and tracking. In our project, it was developed a patient tracking platform (PTP) where first responders triage the patients with an electronic tag which report the location and some information of each patient during his/her movement. This platform includes: 1) near field communication (NFC) tags (ISO 14443), 2) smart mobile phones (Android-base version 4.2.2), 3) Base station laptops (Windows), 4) server software, 5) Android software to use by first responders, 5) disaster command software, and 6) system architecture. Our model has been completed through literature review, Delphi technique, focus group, design the platform, and implement in an earthquake exercise. This paper presents consideration for content, function, and technologies that must apply for patient tracking in medical emergencies situations. It is demonstrated the robustness of the patient tracking platform (PTP) in tracking 6 patients in a simulated earthquake situation in the yard of the relief and rescue department of Isfahan’s Red Crescent.

Keywords: test and evaluation, patient tracking platform, earthquake, simulation

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Authors: Cynthia Mahadi, Norhafezah Kasmuri

Abstract:

Water scarcity is a growing issue these days. As a result, saltwater is being considered a limitless supply of fresh water through the desalination process, which is likely to address the worldwide water crisis, including in Malaysia. This study aims to offer the best management practice for controlling brine discharge in Malaysia by comparing environmental regulations on brine waste management in other countries. Then, a survey was distributed to the public to acquire further information about their level of awareness of the harmful effects of brine waste and to find out their perspective on the proposed solutions to ensure the effectiveness of the measures. As a result, it has been revealed that Malaysia still lacks regulations regarding the disposal of brine waste. Thus, a recommendation based on practices in other nations has been put forth by this study. This study suggests that the government and Malaysia's environmental regulatory body should govern brine waste disposal in the Environmental Quality Act 1974. Also, to add the construction of a desalination plant in Schedule 1 of prescribed activities was necessary. Because desalination plants can harm the environment during both construction and operation, every proposal for the construction of a desalination plant should involve the submission of an environmental impact assessment (EIA).

Keywords: seawater desalination, brine waste, environmental impact assessment, fuzzy Delphi method

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Authors: Alexander de Tomás, Miquel Sierra, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Ines Campos, Cristina Madrid

Abstract:

Environmental parameters are key in the definition of sustainable energy systems yet excluded from most energy system optimization models. Still, decision-making may be misleading without considering them. Environmental analyses of the energy transition are a key part of industrial ecology but often are performed without any input from the users of the information. This work assesses the systemic impacts of energy transition pathways in Portugal. Using the Calliope energy modeling framework, 250+ optimized energy system pathways are generated. A Delphi study helps to identify the relevant criteria for the stakeholders as regards the environmental assessment, which is performed with ENBIOS, a python package that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with a metabolic analysis based on complex relations. Furthermore, this study focuses on how the uncertainty propagates through the model’s consortium. With the aim of doing so, a soft link between the Calliope/ENBIOS cascade and Brightway’s data capabilities is built to perform Monte Carlo simulations. These findings highlight the relevance of including uncertainty analysis as a range of values rather than informing energy transition results with a single value.

Keywords: energy transition, energy modeling, uncertainty, sustainability

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Authors: C. L. Wu, W. W. Tseng

Abstract:

From the National Health Insurance (NHI) system was introduced in Taiwan in 2000, there have been some problems in transformed small-scale hospitals, such as mobility of patients, shortage of nursing staff, medical pipelines breaking fire compartments and insufficient fire protection systems. Due to shrinking of the funding scale and the aging society, fire safety in small-scale hospitals has recently given cause for concern. The aim of this study is to determine fire risk index for small-scale hospital through a systematic approach The selection of fire safety mitigation methods can be regarded as a multi-attribute decision making process which must be guaranteed by expert groups. First of all, identify and select safety related factors and identify evaluation criteria through literature reviews and experts group. Secondly, application of the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method is used to ascertain a weighted value which enables rating of the importance each of the selected factors. Overall, Sprinkler type and Compartmentation are the most crucial indices in mitigating fire, that is to say, structural approach play an important role to decrease losses in fire events.

Keywords: Fuzzy Delphi Method, fuzzy analytic hierarchy, process risk assessment, fire events

Procedia PDF Downloads 422