Search results for: daily probability model

Authors: Nazanin Pilevari, Kamyar Mahmoodi

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The purpose of this research is to provide a model based on fuzzy inference system for evaluating empowerment of Knowledge management. The first prototype of the research was developed based on the study of literature. In the next step, experts were provided with these models and after implementing consensus-based reform, the views of Fuzzy Delphi experts and techniques, components and Index research model were finalized. Culture, structure, IT and leadership were considered as dimensions of empowerment. Then, In order to collect and extract data for fuzzy inference system based on knowledge and Experience, the experts were interviewed. The values obtained from designed fuzzy inference system, made review and assessment of the organization's empowerment of Knowledge management possible. After the design and validation of systems to measure indexes ,empowerment of Knowledge management and inputs into fuzzy inference) in the AYANDEH Bank, a questionnaire was used. In the case of this bank, the system output indicates that the status of empowerment of Knowledge management, culture, organizational structure and leadership are at the moderate level and information technology empowerment are relatively high. Based on these results, the status of knowledge management empowerment in AYANDE Bank, was moderate. Eventually, some suggestions for improving the current situation of banks were provided. According to studies of research history, the use of powerful tools in Fuzzy Inference System for assessment of Knowledge management and knowledge management empowerment such an assessment in the field of banking, are the innovation of this Research.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge management empowerment, fuzzy inference system, fuzzy Delphi

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Authors: Joao Fialho

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The mathematical modelling of idiopathic scoliosis has been studied throughout the years. The models presented on those papers are based on the orthotic stabilization of the idiopathic scoliosis, which are based on a transversal force being applied to the human spine on a continuous form. When considering the ATT (Antalgic-Trak Technology) device, the existent models cannot be used, as the type of forces applied are no longer transversal nor applied in a continuous manner. In this device, vertical traction is applied. In this study we propose to model the idiopathic scoliosis, using the ATT (Antalgic-Trak Technology) device, and with the parameters obtained from the mathematical modeling, set up a case-by-case individualized therapy plan, for each patient.

Keywords: idiopathic scoliosis, mathematical modelling, human spine, Antalgic-Trak technology

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Authors: Qudratullah Muradi

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Geothermal energy is a renewable energy source that can be found in abundance on our planet. Only a small fraction of it is currently converted to electrical power, though in recent years installed geothermal capacity has increased considerably all over the world. In this paper, we assumed a model for designing of Enhanced Geothermal System, EGS. We used computer modeling group, CMG reservoir simulation software to create the typical Hot Dry Rock, HDR reservoir. In this research two wells, one injection of cold water and one production of hot water are included in the model. There are some hydraulic fractures created by the mentioned software. And cold water is injected in order to produce energy from the reservoir. The result of injecting cold water to the reservoir and extracting geothermal energy is defined by some graphs at the end of this research. The production of energy is quantified in a period of 10 years.

Keywords: geothermal energy, EGS, HDR, hydraulic fracturing

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Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Shin-Ham Lee, Sheam-Chyun Lin

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A two wheel inverted pendulum (TWIP) vehicle is built with two hub DC motors for motion control evaluation. Arduino Nano micro-processor is chosen as the control kernel for this electric test plant. Accelerometer and gyroscope sensors are built in to measure the tilt angle and angular velocity of the inverted pendulum vehicle. Since the TWIP has significantly hub motor dead zone and nonlinear system dynamics characteristics, the vehicle system is difficult to control by traditional model based controller. The intelligent model-free fuzzy sliding mode controller (FSMC) was employed as the main control algorithm. Then, intelligent controllers are designed for TWIP balance control, and two wheels synchronization control purposes.

Keywords: balance control, synchronization control, two-wheel inverted pendulum, TWIP

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Authors: Karima Megdouli, Bourhan Taschtouch

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Supersonic ejectors have many applications in refrigeration systems. And improving ejector performance is the key to improve the efficiency of these systems. One of the main advantages of the ejector is its geometric simplicity and the absence of moving parts. This paper presents a theoretical model for evaluating the performance of a new supersonic ejector configuration for refrigeration system applications. The relationship between the flow field and the key parameters of the new configuration has been illustrated by analyzing the Mach number and flow velocity contours. The method of characteristics (MOC) is used to design the supersonic nozzle of the ejector. The results obtained are compared with those obtained by CFD. The ejector is optimized by minimizing exergy destruction due to irreversibility and shock waves. The optimization converges to an efficient optimum solution, ensuring improved and stable performance over the whole considered range of uncertain operating conditions.

Keywords: supersonic ejector, theoretical model, CFD, optimization, performance

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Authors: Siavash Eftekharifar, Tohid Yousefi Rezaii, Mahdi Shamsi

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The purpose of this paper is to exploit compressed sensing (CS) method in order to model and compress the electrocardiogram (ECG) signals at a high compression ratio. In order to obtain a sparse representation of the ECG signals, first a suitable basis matrix with Gaussian kernels, which are shown to nicely fit the ECG signals, is constructed. Then the sparse model is extracted by applying some optimization technique. Finally, the CS theory is utilized to obtain a compressed version of the sparse signal. Reconstruction of the ECG signal from the compressed version is also done to prove the reliability of the algorithm. At this stage, a greedy optimization technique is used to reconstruct the ECG signal and the Mean Square Error (MSE) is calculated to evaluate the precision of the proposed compression method.

Keywords: compressed sensing, ECG compression, Gaussian kernel, sparse representation

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Authors: Rishabh Srivastav, Divyam Sharma

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We propose an algorithm to cluster categorical data named as ‘Genetic algorithm initialized rough set based fuzzy K-Modes for categorical data’. We propose an amalgamation of the simple K-modes algorithm, the Rough and Fuzzy set based K-modes and the Genetic Algorithm to form a new algorithm,which we hypothesise, will provide better Centroid Model clustering results, than existing standard algorithms. In the proposed algorithm, the initialization and updation of modes is done by the use of genetic algorithms while the membership values are calculated using the rough set and fuzzy logic.

Keywords: categorical data, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithm, K modes clustering, rough sets

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

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In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices in the past five years of ten major tech companies – Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We experimented with a variety of models– a linear regressor model, K nearest Neighbors (KNN), a sequential neural network – and algorithms - Multiplicative Weight Update, and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market

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Authors: Cromwell F. Gopo, Joy L. Picar

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This study aimed to predict the employability of senior high school graduates for S.Y. 2018- 2019 in the Davao del Norte Division through quantitative research design using the descriptive status and predictive approaches among the indicated parameters, namely gender, school type, academics, academic award recipient, skills, values, and strand. The respondents of the study were the 33 secondary schools offering senior high school programs identified through simple random sampling, which resulted in 1,530 cases of graduates’ secondary data, which were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and binary logistic regression. Results showed that the majority of the senior high school graduates who come from large schools were females. Further, less than half of these graduates received any academic award in any semester. In general, the graduates’ performance in academics, skills, and values were proficient. Moreover, less than half of the graduates were not employed. Then, those who were employed were either contractual, casual, or part-time workers dominated by GAS graduates. Further, the predictors of employability were gender and the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) strand, while the remaining variables did not add significantly to the model. The null hypothesis had been rejected as the coefficients of the predictors in the binary logistic regression equation did not take the value of 0. After utilizing the model, it was concluded that Technical-Vocational-Livelihood (TVL) graduates except ICT had greater estimates of employability.

Keywords: employability, senior high school graduates, Davao del Norte, Philippines

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Authors: Narges Ebadi, Davod Ahmadi, Hiliary Monteith, Hugo Melgar-Quinonez

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Migration cannot necessarily relieve pressure on water resources in origin communities, and male out-migration can increase the water management burden of women. However, inflows of financial remittances seem to offer possibilities of investing in improving drinking-water access. Therefore, remittances may be an important pathway for migrants to support water security. This paper explores the association between water access and the receipt of remittances in households in sub-Saharan Africa. Data from round 6 of the 'Afrobarometer' surveys in 2016 were used (n= 49,137). Descriptive, bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were carried out in this study. Regardless of country, findings from descriptive analyses showed that approximately 80% of the respondents never received remittance, and 52% had enough clean water. Only one-fifth of the respondents had piped water supply inside the house (19.9%), and approximately 25% had access to a toilet inside the house. Bivariate analyses revealed that even though receiving remittances was significantly associated with water supply, the strength of association was very weak. However, other factors such as the area of residence (rural vs. urban), cash income frequencies, electricity access, and asset ownership were strongly associated with water access. Results from unadjusted multinomial logistic regression revealed that the probability of having no access to piped water increased among remittance recipients who received financial support at least once a month (OR=1.324) (p < 0.001). In contrast, those not receiving remittances were more likely to regularly have a water access concern (OR=1.294) (p < 0.001), and not have access to a latrine (OR=1.665) (p < 0.001). In conclusion, receiving remittances is significantly related to water access as the strength of odds ratios for socio-demographic factors was stronger.

Keywords: remittances, water access, SSA, migration

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Authors: Thomas Wetere

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Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (COVID-19) virus infection is a severe infectious disease with the highly transmissible variant, which become the global public health treat now. It has taken the life of more than 4 million people so far. What makes the disease the worst of all is no specific effective treatment available, its dynamics is not much researched and understood. Methodology: To end the global COVID-19 pandemic, implementation of multiple population-wide strategies, including vaccination, environmental factors, Government action, testing, and contact tracing, is required. In this article, a new mathematical model incorporating both temperature and government action to study the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has been developed and comprehensively analysed. The model considers eight stages of infection: susceptible (S), infected Asymptomatic and Undetected(IAU ), infected Asymptomatic and detected(IAD), infected symptomatic and Undetected(ISU ), infected Symptomatic and detected(ISD), Hospitalized or threatened(H), Recovered(R) and Died(D). Results: The existence as well as non-negativity of the solution to the model is also verified, and the basic reproduction number is calculated. Besides, stability conditions are also checked, and finally, simulation results are compared with real data. The results demonstrates that effective government action will need to be combined with vaccination to end the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion: Vaccination and Government action are highly the crucial measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, as the cost of vaccination might be high, we recommend an optimal control to reduce the cost and number of infected individuals. Moreover, in order to prevent COVID-19 pandemic, through the analysis of the model, the government must strictly manage the policy on COVID-19 and carry it out. This, in turn, helps for health campaigning and raising health literacy which plays a role to control the quick spread of the disease. We finally strongly believe that our study will play its own role in the current effort of controlling the pandemic.

Keywords: modeling, COVID-19, MCMC, stability

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Authors: Masaki Sakai, Tsuyoshi Nakajima, Kazuya Takahashi

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In order to improve the productivity of a factory, it is often the case to create an inference model by collecting and analyzing operational data off-line and then to develop an edge application (EAP) that evaluates the quality of the products or diagnoses machine faults in real-time. To accelerate this development cycle, an edge application framework for the smart factory is proposed, which enables to create and modify EAPs based on prepared inference models. In the framework, the preprocessing component is the key part to make it work. This paper proposes a language for preprocessing of edge applications, called LaPEA, which can flexibly process several sensor data from machines into explanatory variables for an inference model, and proves that it meets the requirements for the preprocessing.

Keywords: edge application framework, edgecross, preprocessing language, smart factory

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Authors: Sherif D. El Wakil, John Rice

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The aim of the current work was to employ the finite element method to model a slab, with a small hole across its width, undergoing plastic plane strain deformation. The computational model had, however, to be validated by comparing its results with those obtained experimentally. Since they were in good agreement, the finite element method can therefore be considered a reliable tool that can help gain better understanding of the mechanism of ductile failure in structural members having stress raisers. The finite element software used was ANSYS, and the PLANE183 element was utilized. It is a higher order 2-D, 8-node or 6-node element with quadratic displacement behavior. A bilinear stress-strain relationship was used to define the material properties, with constants similar to those of the material used in the experimental study. The model was run for several tensile loads in order to observe the progression of the plastic deformation region, and the stress concentration factor was determined in each case. The experimental study involved employing the visioplasticity technique, where a circular mesh (each circle was 0.5 mm in diameter, with 0.05 mm line thickness) was initially printed on the side of an aluminum slab having a small hole across its width. Tensile loading was then applied to produce a small increment of plastic deformation. Circles in the plastic region became ellipses, where the directions of the principal strains and stresses coincided with the major and minor axes of the ellipses. Next, we were able to determine the directions of the maximum and minimum shear stresses at the center of each ellipse, and the slip-line field was then constructed. We were then able to determine the stress at any point in the plastic deformation zone, and hence the stress concentration factor. The experimental results were found to be in good agreement with the analytical ones.

Keywords: finite element method to model a slab, slab undergoing plastic deformation, stress distribution around a circular hole, visioplasticity

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Authors: Julia Córdoba

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People are not completely autonomous, as we live in society; therefore, people could be defined as relationally dependent. The lack, decrease or loss of physical, psychological and/or social interdependence due to a disability situation is known as dependence. This is related to the need for help from another person in order to carry out activities of daily living. This population group lives with major social limitations that significantly reduce their participation and autonomy. They have high levels of stigma and invisibility from private environments (family and close networks), as well as from the public order (environment, community). The importance of this study lies in the fact that the lack of support and adjustments leads to what authors call the circle of exclusion. This circle describes how not accessing services - due to the difficulties caused by the disability situation impacts biological, social and psychological levels. This situation produces higher levels of exclusion and vulnerability. This study will focus on the process of autonomy and dependence of adults with disability from the model of disability proposed by the International Classification of Functioning, Health and Disability (ICF). The objectives are: i) to write down the relationship between autonomy and dependence based on socio-health variables and ii) to determine the relationship between the situation of autonomy and dependence and the expectations and interests of the participants. We propose a study that will use a survey technique through a previously validated virtual questionnaire. The data obtained will be analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods for the details of the profiles obtained. No less than 200 questionnaires will be administered to people between 18 and 64 years of age who self-identify as having some degree of dependency due to disability. For the analysis of the results, the two main variables of autonomy and dependence will be considered. Socio-demographic variables such as age, gender identity, area of residence and family composition will be used. In relation to the biological dimension of the situation, the diagnosis, if any, and the type of disability will be asked. For the description of these profiles of autonomy and dependence, the following variables will be used: self-perception, decision-making, interests, expectations and life project, care of their health condition, support and social network, and labor and educational inclusion. The relationship between the target population and the variables collected provides several guidelines that could form the basis for the analysis of other research of interest in terms of self-perception, autonomy and dependence. The areas and situations where people state that they have greater possibilities to decide and have a say will be obtained. It will identify social (networks and support, educational background), demographic (age, gender identity and residence) and health-related variables (diagnosis and type of disability, quality of care) that may have a greater relationship with situations of dependency or autonomy. It will be studied whether the level of autonomy and/or dependence has an impact on the type of expectations and interests of the people surveyed.

Keywords: life project, disability, inclusion, autonomy

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Authors: Habibi Said Mustafa, Hiroko Ono

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Since 2006, Afghanistan is dealing with one of the most dramatic trend of urban movement in its history, cities and towns are expanding in size and number. Kabul is the capital of Afghanistan and as well as the fast-growing city in the Asia. The influx of the returnees from neighbor countries and other provinces of Afghanistan caused high rate of artificial growth which slums increased. As an unwanted consequence of this growth, today informal settlements have covered a vast portion of the city. Land Readjustment (LR) has proved to be an important tool for developing informal settlements and reorganizing urban areas but its implementation always varies from country to country and region to region within the countries. Consequently, to successfully develop the informal settlements in Kabul, we need to define an Afghan model of LR specifically for Afghanistan which needs to incorporate all those factors related to the socio-economic condition of the country. For this purpose, a part of the old city of Kabul has selected as a study area which is located near the Central Business District (CBD). After the further analysis and incorporating all needed factors, the result shows a positive potential for the implementation of an adaptable Land Readjustment model for Kabul city which is more sustainable and socio-economically friendly. It will enhance quality of life and provide better urban services for the residents. Moreover, it will set a vision and criteria by which sustainable developments shall proceed in other similar informal settlements of Kabul.

Keywords: adaptation, informal settlements, Kabul, land readjustment, preservation

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Authors: Kai Qian, Lixin Tao

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Mobile devices such as smartphones are getting more and more popular in our daily lives. The security vulnerability and threat attacks become a very emerging and important research and education topic in computing security discipline. There is a need to have an innovative mobile security hands-on laboratory to provide students with real world relevant mobile threat analysis and protection experience. This paper presents an authentic teaching and learning mobile security approach with smartphone devices which covers most important mobile threats in most aspects of mobile security. Each lab focuses on one type of mobile threats, such as mobile messaging threat, and conveys the threat analysis and protection in multiple ways, including lectures and tutorials, multimedia or app-based demonstration for threats analysis, and mobile app development for threat protections. This authentic learning approach is affordable and easily-adoptable which immerse students in a real world relevant learning environment with real devices. This approach can also be applied to many other mobile related courses such as mobile Java programming, database, network, and any security relevant courses so that can learn concepts and principles better with the hands-on authentic learning experience.

Keywords: mobile computing, Android, network, security, labware

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Authors: Sylvain Perrin, Thomas Saillour

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The Grande-Motte port and seafront development project on the French Mediterranean coastline entailed evaluating wave impact loads (pressures and forces) on the new beach seawall and comparing the resulting scour potential at the base of the existing and new seawall. A physical model was built at ARTELIA’s hydraulics laboratory in Grenoble (France) to provide insight into the evolution of scouring overtime at the front of the wall, quasi-static and impulsive wave force intensity and distribution on the wall, and water and sand overtopping discharges over the wall. The beach was constituted of fine sand and approximately 50 m wide above mean sea level (MSL). Seabed slopes were in the range of 0.5% offshore to 1.5% closer to the beach. A smooth concrete structure will replace the existing concrete seawall with an elevated curved crown wall. Prior the start of breaking (at -7 m MSL contour), storm-driven maximum spectral significant wave heights of 2.8 m and 3.2 m were estimated for the benchmark historical storm event dated of 1997 and the 50-year return period storms respectively, resulting in 1 m high waves at the beach. For the wave load assessment, a tensor scale measured wave forces and moments and five piezo / piezo-resistive pressure sensors were placed on the wall. Light-weight sediment physical model and pressure and force measurements were performed with scale 1:18. The polyvinyl chloride light-weight particles used to model the prototype silty sand had a density of approximately 1 400 kg/m3 and a median diameter (d50) of 0.3 mm. Quantitative assessments of the seabed evolution were made using a measuring rod and also a laser scan survey. Testing demonstrated the occurrence of numerous impulsive wave impacts on the reflector (22%), induced not by direct wave breaking but mostly by wave run-up slamming on the top curved part of the wall. Wave forces of up to 264 kilonewtons and impulsive pressure spikes of up to 127 kilonewtons were measured. Maximum scour of -0.9 m was measured for the new seawall versus -0.6 m for the existing seawall, which is imputable to increased wave reflection (coefficient was 25.7 - 30.4% vs 23.4 - 28.6%). This paper presents a methodology for the setup and operation of a physical model in order to assess the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes at a beach seawall during storms events. It discusses the pros and cons of such methodology versus others, notably regarding structures peculiarities and model effects.

Keywords: beach, impacts, scour, seawall, waves

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Authors: Fatma Al-Maadheed

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Following an ethnographic approach this study explored bilingual programmes offered by two types of primary schools in Qatar: international and Independent schools. Qatar with its unique linguistic and socio-economic situation launched a new initiative for educatiobnal development in 2001 but with hardly any research linked to theses changes. The study reveals that the Qatari bilingual schools context was one of heteroglossia, with three codes in operation: Modern Standard Arabic, Colloquial Arabic dialects and English. The two schools adopted different models of bilingualism. The international school adopted a strict separation policy between the two languages following a monoglossic belief. The independent school was found to apply a flexible language policy. The study also highlighted the daily challnges produced from the diglossia situation in Qatar, the difference between students and teacher dialect as well as acquiring literacy in the formal language. In addition to an abscence of a clear language policy in Schools, the study brought attention to the instructional methods utilised in language teaching which are mostly associated with successful bilingual education.

Keywords: diglossia, instructional methods, language policy, qatari primary schools

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Authors: Ali Muhammad

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The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework which demonstrates the effect of four personal factors on employees rule following behavior in Kuwaiti business organizations. The model suggested in this study includes organizational citizenship behavior, affective organizational commitment, organizational trust, and procedural justice as possible predictors of rule following behavior. The study also attempts to compare the effects of the suggested factors on employees rule following behavior. The new model will, hopefully, extend previous research by adding new variables to the models used to explain employees rule following behavior. A discussion of issues related to rule-following behavior is presented, as well as recommendations for future research.

Keywords: employee adherence to rules, organizational justice, organizational commitment, organizational citizenship behavior

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Authors: Vasileiou Apostolos, Theodosiou Chrysa, Tsitroulis Ioannis, Maris Fotios

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The severity of extreme phenomena is due to their ability to cause severe damage in a small amount of time. It has been observed that floods affect the greatest number of people and induce the biggest damage when compared to the total of annual natural disasters. The detection of potential flood-prone areas constitutes one of the fundamental components of the European Natural Disaster Management Policy, directly connected to the European Directive 2007/60. The aim of the present paper is to develop a new methodology that combines geographical information, fuzzy logic and multi-criteria evaluation methods so that the most vulnerable areas are defined. Therefore, ten factors related to geophysical, morphological, climatological/meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the basin were selected. Afterwards, two models were created to detect the areas pronest to flooding. The first model defined the gravitas of each factor using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the final map of possible flood spots were created using GIS and Boolean Algebra. The second model made use of the fuzzy logic and GIS combination and a respective map was created. The application area of the aforementioned methodologies was in Ardas basin due to the frequent and important floods that have taken place these last years. Then, the results were compared to the already observed floods. The result analysis shows that both models can detect with great precision possible flood spots. As the fuzzy logic model is less time-consuming, it is considered the ideal model to apply to other areas. The said results are capable of contributing to the delineation of high risk areas and to the creation of successful management plans dealing with floods.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, flood prone areas, fuzzy logic, geographic information system

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Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

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A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

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Authors: Lina Martinez, Juan David Rivera Acevedo, Isabella Franco

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The informal economy plays a significant role in the job market in Colombia. Cali, the third largest city in the country, is characterized by a high percentage of socially and economically vulnerable population groups who take part in the urban informal economy, with street vending as their primary source of income. This paper studies the socio-economic dimensions of street vendors in Cali. In particular, it examines why they are unable to capitalize on their comparatively high earnings and are not likely to escape poverty even though they usually profit from government welfare and tax evasion due to the non-regulated character of informality. The analysis of an observational study and two surveys with 637 and 300 participants show that street vending is a cash-based day-to-day activity. Since most of the street vendors do not have access to formal banking systems, they depend on payday loans with incomparably high interest rates which absorb a large share of their income and maintain a continuous indebtedness. This is one of the main reasons why they are unable to improve their living conditions. However, the daily cash flow masks the high opportunity cost of loans and long-term deficits.

Keywords: Colombia, informal economy, payday loans, street vendors

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Authors: Rimon Rafiah

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This paper will present a combination of two seemingly unrelated models, which are the one for estimating economic development impacts as a result of transportation investment and the other for increasing CAV penetration in order to reduce congestion. Measuring economic development impacts resulting from transportation investments is becoming more recognized around the world. Examples include the UK’s Wider Economic Benefits (WEB) model, Economic Impact Assessments in the USA, various input-output models, and additional models around the world. The economic impact model is based on WEB and is based on the following premise: investments in transportation will reduce the cost of personal travel, enabling firms to be more competitive, creating additional throughput (the same road allows more people to travel), and reducing the cost of travel of workers to a new workplace. This reduction in travel costs was estimated in out-of-pocket terms in a given localized area and was then translated into additional employment based on regional labor supply elasticity. This additional employment was conservatively assumed to be at minimum wage levels, translated into GDP terms, and from there into direct taxation (i.e., an increase in tax taken by the government). The CAV model is based on economic principles such as CAV usage, supply, and demand. Usage of CAVs can increase capacity using a variety of means – increased automation (known as Level I thru Level IV) and also by increased penetration and usage, which has been predicted to go up to 50% by 2030 according to several forecasts, with possible full conversion by 2045-2050. Several countries have passed policies and/or legislation on sales of gasoline-powered vehicles (none) starting in 2030 and later. Supply was measured via increased capacity on given infrastructure as a function of both CAV penetration and implemented technologies. The CAV model, as implemented in the USA, has shown significant savings in travel time and also in vehicle operating costs, which can be translated into economic development impacts in terms of job creation, GDP growth and salaries as well. The models have policy implications as well and can be adapted for use in Japan as well.

Keywords: CAV, economic development, WEB, transport economics

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Authors: Heiko Weiß, Andreas Meister, Christoph Ament, Nils Dreifke

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Linear actuators are deployed in a wide range of applications. This paper presents the modeling and system identification of a variable excited linear direct drive (LDD). The LDD is designed based on linear hybrid stepper technology exhibiting the characteristic tooth structure of mover and stator. A three-phase topology provides the thrust force caused by alternating strengthening and weakening of the flux of the legs. To achieve best possible synchronous operation, the phases are commutated sinusoidal. Despite the fact that these LDDs provide high dynamics and drive forces, noise emission limits their operation in calm workspaces. To overcome this drawback an additional excitation of the magnetic circuit is introduced to LDD using additional enabling coils instead of permanent magnets. The new degree of freedom can be used to reduce force variations and related noise by varying the excitation flux that is usually generated by permanent magnets. Hence, an identified simulation model is necessary to analyze the effects of this modification. Especially the force variations must be modeled well in order to reduce them sufficiently. The model can be divided into three parts: the current dynamics, the mechanics and the force functions. These subsystems are described with differential equations or nonlinear analytic functions, respectively. Ordinary nonlinear differential equations are derived and transformed into state space representation. Experiments have been carried out on a test rig to identify the system parameters of the complete model. Static and dynamic simulation based optimizations are utilized for identification. The results are verified in time and frequency domain. Finally, the identified model provides a basis for later design of control strategies to reduce existing force variations.

Keywords: force variations, linear direct drive, modeling and system identification, variable excitation flux

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate cost prediction is essential for effective project management and decision-making in the construction industry. This study aims to develop a cost prediction model for construction projects using Machine Learning techniques and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing project cost estimates, actual costs, resource details, and project performance metrics from a road reconstruction project. The methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using PSO. The study investigates the impact of various input features, including cost estimates, resource allocation, and project progress, on the accuracy of cost predictions. The performance of the optimized ANN model is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting project costs, outperforming traditional benchmark models. The feature selection process identifies the most influential variables contributing to cost variations, providing valuable insights for project managers. However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the model's performance may be influenced by the quality and quantity of the dataset used. A larger and more diverse dataset covering different types of construction projects would enhance the model's generalizability. Secondly, the study focuses on a specific optimization technique (PSO) and a single Machine Learning algorithm (ANN). Exploring other optimization methods and comparing the performance of various ML algorithms could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the cost prediction problem. Future research should focus on several key areas. Firstly, expanding the dataset to include a wider range of construction projects, such as residential buildings, commercial complexes, and infrastructure projects, would improve the model's applicability. Secondly, investigating the integration of additional data sources, such as economic indicators, weather data, and supplier information, could enhance the predictive power of the model. Thirdly, exploring the potential of ensemble learning techniques, which combine multiple ML algorithms, may further improve cost prediction accuracy. Additionally, developing user-friendly interfaces and tools to facilitate the adoption of the proposed cost prediction model in real-world construction projects would be a valuable contribution to the industry. The findings of this study have significant implications for construction project management, enabling proactive cost estimation, resource allocation, budget planning, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to improved project performance and cost control. This research contributes to the advancement of cost prediction techniques in the construction industry and highlights the potential of Machine Learning and PSO in addressing this critical challenge. However, further research is needed to address the limitations and explore the identified future research directions to fully realize the potential of ML-based cost prediction models in the construction domain.

Keywords: cost prediction, construction projects, machine learning, artificial neural networks, particle swarm optimization, project management, feature selection, road reconstruction

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Authors: Reem Al-Garni

Abstract:

Malnutrition is a global epidemic, but the under-weight or Failure-To-Thrive risk is increasing in rehabilitation setting and considered one of the contribution factor for developmental delay. Beside the consequences of malnutrition on children growth and development, there are other side-effects that might delay or hold the progress of rehabilitation. The awareness for malnutrition must be raised and discussed by the rehabilitation team, to promote the treatment and to optimize the client care. The solution can start from food supplements intake and / or Enteral Nutrition plan, depending on the malnutrition level and to reach the goal, the medical team should to work together in order to provide comprehensive treatment and to help the family to be able to manage their child condition. We have explore the outcomes of rehabilitation between the children with CP whose diagnosed with malnutrition and children with normal body Wight Over a period of 4 months who received 4-6 weeks of rehabilitation two hours daily by using WeeFIM score to measure rehabilitation outcomes. WeeFIM measures and covers various domains, such as: self-care, mobility, locomotion, communication and other psycho-social aspects. Our findings reported that children with normal body Wight has better outcomes and improvement comparing with children with malnutrition for the entire study sample.

Keywords: Cerebral Palsy (CP), pediatric Functional Independent Measure (WeeFIM), rehabilitation, malnutrition

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Authors: Jianguo Chen, Fenggang Zang, Yu Yang, Liangang Zheng

Abstract:

Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is an important security barrier in nuclear power plant. Crack like defects may be produced on RPV during the whole operation lifetime due to the harsh operation condition and irradiation embrittlement. During the severe loss of coolant accident, thermal shock happened as the injection of emergency cooling water into RPV, which results in re-pressurization of the vessel and very high tension stress on the vessel wall, this event called Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS). Crack on the vessel wall may propagate even penetrate the vessel, so the safety of the RPV would undergo great challenge. Many assumptions in structure integrity evaluation make the result of deterministic fracture mechanics very conservative, which affect the operation lifetime of the plant. Actually, many parameters in the evaluation process, such as fracture toughness and nil-ductility transition temperature, have statistical distribution characteristics. So it is necessary to assess the structural integrity of RPV subjected to PTS event by means of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM). Structure integrity evaluation methods of RPV subjected to PTS event are summarized firstly, then evaluation method based on probabilistic fracture mechanics are presented by considering the probabilistic characteristics of material and structure parameters. A comprehensive analysis example is carried out at last. The results show that the probability of crack penetrates through wall increases gradually with the growth of fast neutron irradiation flux. The results give advice for reactor life extension.

Keywords: fracture toughness, integrity evaluation, pressurized thermal shock, probabilistic fracture mechanics, reactor pressure vessel

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Authors: Chinedu Peter, Dashrath Singh

Abstract:

Membrane computing is a computability model which abstracts its structures and functions from the biological cell. The main ingredient of membrane computing is the notion of a membrane structure, which consists of several cell-like membranes recurrently placed inside a unique skin membrane. The emergence of several variants of membrane computing gives rise to the notion of a P system. The paper presents a variant of P systems for arithmetic operations on non-negative integers based on the weak priorities for rule application. Consequently, we obtain deterministic P systems. Two membranes suffice. There are at most four objects for multiplication and five objects for division throughout the computation processes. The model is simple and has a potential for possible extension to non-negative integers and real numbers in general.

Keywords: P system, binary operation, determinism, weak rule priority

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Authors: Alicia Ettlin

Abstract:

Amid the rise of neoliberalism to the leading economic policy model in Western societies in the 1980s, people have started to internalise a neoliberal way of thinking, whereby the human body has become an entity that can and needs to be precisely managed through free yet rational decision-making processes. The neoliberal citizen has consequently become an entrepreneur of the self who is free, independent, rational, productive and responsible for themselves, their health and wellbeing as well as their appearance. The focus on individuals as entrepreneurs who manage their bodies through the rationally thinking mind has, however, become increasingly criticised for viewing the social actor as ‘disembodied’, as a detached, social actor whose powerful mind governs over the passive body. On the other hand, the discourse around embodiment seeks to connect rational decision-making processes to the dominant neoliberal discourse which creates an embodied understanding that the body, just as other areas of people’s lives, can and should be shaped, monitored and managed through cognitive and rational thinking. This perspective offers an understanding of the body regarding its connections with the social environment that reaches beyond the debates around mind-body binary thinking. Hence, following this argument, body management should not be thought of as either solely guided by embodied discourses nor as merely falling into a mind-body dualism, but rather, simultaneously and inseparably as both at once. The descriptive, qualitative analysis of semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted with young Australian amateur athletes between the age of 18 and 24 has shown that most participants are interested in measuring and managing their body to create self-knowledge and self-improvement. The participants thereby connected self-improvement to weight loss, muscle gain or simply staying fit and healthy. Self-knowledge refers to body measurements including weight, BMI or body fat percentage. Self-management and self-knowledge that are reliant on one another to take rational and well-thought-out decisions, are both characteristic values of the neoliberal doctrine. A neoliberal way of thinking and looking after the body has also by many been connected to rewarding themselves for their discipline, hard work or achievement of specific body management goals (e.g. eating chocolate for reaching the daily step count goal). A few participants, however, have shown resistance against these neoliberal values, and in particular, against the precise monitoring and management of the body with the help of self-tracking devices. Ultimately, however, it seems that most participants have internalised the dominant discourses around self-responsibility, and by association, a sense of duty to discipline their body in normative ways. Even those who have indicated their resistance against body work and body management practices that follow neoliberal thinking and measurement systems, are aware and have internalised the concept of the rational operating mind that needs or should decide how to look after the body in terms of health but also appearance ideals. The discussion around the collected data thereby shows that embodiment and the mind/body dualism constitute two connected, rather than two separate or opposing concepts.

Keywords: dualism, embodiment, mind, neoliberalism

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Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

Abstract:

The number of inpatient admissions in the UK has been significantly increasing over the past decade. These increases cause bed occupancy rates to exceed the target level (85%) set by the Department of Health in England. Therefore, hospital service managers are struggling to better manage key resource such as beds. On the other hand, this severe demand pressure might lead to confusion in wards. For example, patients can be admitted to the ward of another inpatient specialty due to lack of resources (i.e., bed). This study aims to develop a simulation-optimization model to reallocate the available number of beds in a mid-sized hospital in the UK. A hospital simulation model was developed to capture the stochastic behaviours of the hospital by taking into account the accident and emergency department, all outpatient and inpatient services, and the interactions between each other. A couple of outputs of the simulation model (e.g., average length of stay and revenue) were generated as inputs to be used in the optimization model. An integer linear programming was developed under a number of constraints (financial, demand, target level of bed occupancy rate and staffing level) with the aims of maximizing number of admitted patients. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by taking into account unexpected increases on inpatient demand over the next 12 months. As a result, the major findings of the approach proposed in this study optimally reallocate the available number of beds for each inpatient speciality and reveal that 74 beds are idle. In addition, the findings of the study indicate that the hospital wards will be able to cope with 14% demand increase at most in the projected year. In conclusion, this paper sheds a new light on how best to reallocate beds in order to cope with current and future demand for healthcare services.

Keywords: bed occupancy rate, bed reallocation, discrete event simulation, inpatient admissions, integer linear programming, projected usage

Procedia PDF Downloads 139