Search results for: ageing model

Authors: Natalia Bustos Sierra, Katrien Tersago

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It is currently proven that both extremes of temperature are associated with increased mortality and that air pollution is associated with temperature. This relationship is complex, and in countries with important seasonal variations in weather such as Belgium, some effects can appear as non-significant when the analysis is done over the entire year. We, therefore, analyzed the effect of short-term outdoor air pollution exposure on cardiovascular mortality during the warmer and colder months separately. We used daily cardiovascular deaths from acute cardiovascular diagnostics according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10: I20-I24, I44-I49, I50, I60-I66) during the period 2008-2013. The environmental data were population-weighted concentrations of particulates with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 µm (PM₂.₅) (daily average), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (daily maximum of the hourly average) and ozone (O₃) (daily maximum of the 8-hour running mean). A Generalized linear model was applied adjusting for the confounding effect of season, temperature, dew point temperature, the day of the week, public holidays and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risks (RR) were calculated for an increase of one interquartile range (IQR) of the air pollutant (μg/m³). These were presented for the four hottest months (June, July, August, September) and coldest months (November, December, January, February) in Belgium. We applied both individual lag model and unconstrained distributed lag model methods. The cumulative effect of a four-day exposure (day of exposure and three consecutive days) was calculated from the unconstrained distributed lag model. The IQR for PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, NO₂, and O₃ were respectively 8.2, 6.9, 12.9 and 25.5 µg/m³ during warm months and 18.8, 17.6, 18.4 and 27.8 µg/m³ during cold months. The association with CV mortality was statistically significant for the four pollutants during warm months and only for NO₂ during cold months. During the warm months, the cumulative effect of an IQR increase of ozone for the age groups 25-64, 65-84 and 85+ was 1.066 (95%CI: 1.002-1.135), 1.041 (1.008-1.075) and 1.036 (1.013-1.058) respectively. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of NO₂ for the age group 65-84 was 1.066 (1.020-1.114) during warm months and 1.096 (1.030-1.166) during cold months. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of PM₁₀ during warm months reached 1.046 (1.011-1.082) and 1.038 (1.015-1.063) for the age groups 65-84 and 85+ respectively. Similar results were observed for PM₂.₅. The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is greater during warm months for lower pollutant concentrations compared to cold months. Spending more time outside during warm months increases population exposure to air pollution and can, therefore, be a confounding factor for this association. Age can also affect the length of time spent outdoors and the type of physical activity exercised. This study supports the deleterious effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CV) which varies according to season and age groups in Belgium. Public health measures should, therefore, be adapted to seasonality.

Keywords: air pollution, cardiovascular, mortality, season

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Authors: Dewi Hardiningtyas Sugiono

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Concerning towards the quality of air comfort and safety to pedestrians in the University area should be increased as Indonesia economics booming. Hence, the University management needs guidelines of thermal comfort to innovate a new layout building. The objectives of this study is to investigate and then to evaluate the distribution of thermal comfort which is indicated by predicted mean vote (PMV) index at the University of Brawijaya (UB), Malang. The PMV figures are used to evaluate and to redesign the UB layout. The research is started with study literature and early survey to collect all information of building layout and building shape at the University of Brawijaya. The information is used to create a 3D model in CAD software. The model is simulated by Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) software to measure the PMV factors of air temperature, relative humidity and air speed in some locations. Validation is done by comparing between PMV value from observation and PMV value from simulation. The resuls of the research shows the most sensitive of microclimatic factors is air temperature surrounding the UB building. Finally, the research is successfully figure out the UB layout and provides further actions to increase the thermal comfort.

Keywords: thermal comfort, heat index (HI), CFD, layout

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Authors: Takuya Suzuki, Atsushi Shirai, Takashi Seki

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Acupuncture therapy is one of the treatments in traditional Chinese medicine. Recently, some reports have shown the effectiveness of acupuncture. However, its full acceptance has been hindered by the lack of understanding on mechanism of the therapy. Acupuncture applied to Zusanli (ST-36) enhances blood flow volume in superior mesenteric artery (SMA), yielding peripheral vascular resistance – regulated blood flow of SMA dominated by the parasympathetic system and inhibition of sympathetic system. In this study, a lumped-parameter approximation model of blood flow in the systemic arteries was developed. This model was extremely simple, consisting of the aorta, carotid arteries, arteries of the four limbs and SMA, and their peripheral vascular resistances. Here, the individual artery was simplified to a tapered tube and the resistances were modelled by a linear resistance. We numerically investigated contribution of the peripheral vascular resistance of SMA to the systemic blood distribution using this model. In addition to the upstream end of the model, which correlates with the left ventricle, two types of boundary condition were applied; mean left ventricular pressure which correlates with blood pressure (BP) and mean cardiac output which corresponds to cardiac index (CI). We examined it to reproduce the experimentally obtained hemodynamic change, in terms of the ratio of the aforementioned hemodynamic parameters from their initial values before the acupuncture, by regulating the peripheral vascular resistances and the upstream boundary condition. First, only the peripheral vascular resistance of SMA was changed to show contribution of the resistance to the change in blood flow volume in SMA, expecting reproduction of the experimentally obtained change. It was found, however, this was not enough to reproduce the experimental result. Then, we also changed the resistances of the other arteries together with the value given at upstream boundary. Here, the resistances of the other arteries were changed simultaneously in the same amount. Consequently, we successfully reproduced the hemodynamic change to find that regulation of the upstream boundary condition to the value experimentally obtained after the stimulation is necessary for the reproduction, though statistically significant changes in BP and CI were not observed in the experiment. It is generally known that sympathetic and parasympathetic tones take part in regulation of whole the systemic circulation including the cardiac function. The present result indicates that stimulation to ST-36 could induce vasodilation of peripheral circulation of SMA and vasoconstriction of that of other arteries. In addition, it implies that experimentally obtained small changes in BP and CI induced by the acupuncture may be involved in the therapeutic response.

Keywords: acupuncture, hemodynamics, lumped-parameter approximation, modeling, systemic vascular resistance

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Authors: Jiahao Tian, Michael D. Porter

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Law enforcement agencies are tasked with crime prevention and crime reduction under limited resources. Having an accurate temporal estimate of the crime rate would be valuable to achieve such a goal. However, estimation is usually complicated by the interval-censored nature of crime data. We cast the problem of intensity estimation as a Poisson regression using an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Two special penalties are added that provide smoothness over the time of day and day of the week. This approach presented here provides accurate intensity estimates and can also uncover day-of-week clusters that share the same intensity patterns. Anticipating where and when crimes might occur is a key element to successful policing strategies. However, this task is complicated by the presence of interval-censored data. The censored data refers to the type of data that the event time is only known to lie within an interval instead of being observed exactly. This type of data is prevailing in the field of criminology because of the absence of victims for certain types of crime. Despite its importance, the research in temporal analysis of crime has lagged behind the spatial component. Inspired by the success of solving crime-related problems with a statistical approach, we propose a statistical model for the temporal intensity estimation of crime with censored data. The model is built on Poisson regression and has special penalty terms added to the likelihood. An EM algorithm was derived to obtain maximum likelihood estimates, and the resulting model shows superior performance to the competing model. Our research is in line with the smart policing initiative (SPI) proposed by the Bureau Justice of Assistance (BJA) as an effort to support law enforcement agencies in building evidence-based, data-driven law enforcement tactics. The goal is to identify strategic approaches that are effective in crime prevention and reduction. In our case, we allow agencies to deploy their resources for a relatively short period of time to achieve the maximum level of crime reduction. By analyzing a particular area within cities where data are available, our proposed approach could not only provide an accurate estimate of intensities for the time unit considered but a time-variation crime incidence pattern. Both will be helpful in the allocation of limited resources by either improving the existing patrol plan with the understanding of the discovery of the day of week cluster or supporting extra resources available.

Keywords: cluster detection, EM algorithm, interval censoring, intensity estimation

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Authors: Jennifer Chen, Pei Y. Hsu, Yu W. Chen

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Groundwater resources play a vital role in regional water supply because over 1/3 of total demand is satisfied by groundwater resources. Because over-pumpage might cause environmental impact such as land subsidence, a sustainable management of groundwater resource is required. In this study, a blueprint of smart management for groundwater resource is proposed and planned. The framework of the smart management can be divided into two major parts, hardware and software parts. First, an internet of groundwater (IoG) which is inspired by the internet of thing (IoT) is proposed to observe the migration of groundwater usage and the associated response, groundwater levels. Second, algorithms based on data mining and signal analysis are proposed to achieve the goal of providing highly efficient management of groundwater. The entire blueprint is a 4-year plan and this year is the first year. We have finished the installation of 50 flow meters and 17 observation wells. An underground hydrological model is proposed to determine the associated drawdown caused by the measured pumpages. Besides, an alternative to the flow meter is also proposed to decrease the installation cost of IoG. An accelerometer and 3G remote transmission are proposed to detect the on and off of groundwater pumpage.

Keywords: groundwater management, internet of groundwater, underground hydrological model, alternative of flow meter

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Authors: Purevdolgor Luvsantseren, Ajnai Luvsan-Ish, Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Javzmaa Tsend, Akhit Tileubai, Baasandorj Chilhaasuren, Jargalbat Puntsagdash, Galbadrakh Chuluunbaatar

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One of the indicators of the quality of university services is student satisfaction. Aim: We aimed to study the level of satisfaction of students in the first year of premedical courses in the course of Medical Physics using the cluster method. Materials and Methods: In the framework of this goal, a questionnaire was collected from a total of 324 students who studied the medical physics course of the 1st course of the premedical course at the Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences. When determining the level of satisfaction, the answers were obtained on five levels of satisfaction: "excellent", "good", "medium", "bad" and "very bad". A total of 39 questionnaires were collected from students: 8 for course evaluation, 19 for teacher evaluation, and 12 for student evaluation. From the research, a database with 39 fields and 324 records was created. Results: In this database, cluster analysis was performed in MATLAB and R programs using the k-means method of data mining. Calculated the Hopkins statistic in the created database, the values are 0.88, 0.87, and 0.97. This shows that cluster analysis methods can be used. The course evaluation sub-fund is divided into three clusters. Among them, cluster I has 150 objects with a "good" rating of 46.2%, cluster II has 119 objects with a "medium" rating of 36.7%, and Cluster III has 54 objects with a "good" rating of 16.6%. The teacher evaluation sub-base into three clusters, there are 179 objects with a "good" rating of 55.2% in cluster II, 108 objects with an "average" rating of 33.3% in cluster III, and 36 objects with an "excellent" rating in cluster I of 11.1%. The sub-base of student evaluations is divided into two clusters: cluster II has 215 objects with an "excellent" rating of 66.3%, and cluster I has 108 objects with an "excellent" rating of 33.3%. Evaluating the resulting clusters with the Silhouette coefficient, 0.32 for the course evaluation cluster, 0.31 for the teacher evaluation cluster, and 0.30 for student evaluation show statistical significance. Conclusion: Finally, to conclude, cluster analysis in the model of the medical physics lesson “good” - 46.2%, “middle” - 36.7%, “bad” - 16.6%; 55.2% - “good”, 33.3% - “middle”, 11.1% - “bad” in the teacher evaluation model; 66.3% - “good” and 33.3% of “bad” in the student evaluation model.

Keywords: questionnaire, data mining, k-means method, silhouette coefficient

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Authors: L. Serrano-Lara, J.M Alba-Gómez

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Qubbet el–Hawa Project has been documented archaeological artifacts as 3d models by laser scanning technique since 2015. Currently, research has obtained the right methodology to develop a high accuracy photographic texture for each geometrical 3D model. Furthermore, the right methodology to attach the complete digital surrogate into a 3DPDF document has been obtained; it is used as a catalogue worksheet that brings archaeological data and, at the same time, allows us to obtain precise measurements, volume calculations and cross-section mapping of each scanned artifact. This validated archaeological documentation is the first step for dissemination, application as Qubbet el-Hawa Virtual Museum, and, moreover, multi-sensory experience through 3D print archaeological artifacts. Material culture from four funerary complexes constructed in West Aswan has become physical replicas opening the archaeological research process itself and offering creative possibilities on museology or educational projects. This paper shares a method of acquiring texture for scanning´s output product in order to achieve a 3DPDF archaeological cataloguing, and, on the other hand, to allow the colorfully 3D printing of singular archaeological artifacts. The proposed method has undergone two concrete cases, a polychrome wooden ushabti, and, a cartonnage mask belonging to a lady, bought recovered on intact tomb QH34aa. Both 3D model results have been implemented on three main applications, archaeological 3D catalogue, public dissemination activities, and the 3D artifact model in a bachelor education program. Due to those three already mentioned applications, productive interaction among spectator and three-dimensional artifact have been increased; moreover, functionality as archaeological documentation has been consolidated. Finding the right methodology to assign a specific color to each vector on the geometric 3D model, we had been achieved two essential archaeological applications. Firstly, 3DPDF as a display document for an archaeological catalogue, secondly, the possibility to obtain a colored 3d printed object to be displayed in public exhibitions. Obsolescences 3D models have become updated archaeological documentation of QH43aa tomb cultural material. Therefore, Qubbet el-Hawa Project has been actualized the educational potential of its results thanks to a multi-sensory experience that arose from 3d scanned´s archaeological artifacts.

Keywords: 3D printed, 3D scanner, Middle Kingdom, Qubbet el-Hawa necropolis, virtual archaeology

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Authors: Musa Akdere, Gunnar Seide, Thomas Gries

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Carbon fibres are fibrous materials with a carbon atom amount of more than 90%. They combine excellent mechanicals properties with a very low density. Thus carbon fibre reinforced plastics (CFRP) are very often used in lightweight design and construction. The precursor material is usually polyacrylonitrile (PAN) based and wet-spun. During the production of carbon fibre, the precursor has to be stabilized thermally to withstand the high temperatures of up to 1500 °C which occur during carbonization. Even though carbon fibre has been used since the late 1970s in aerospace application, there is still no general method available to find the optimal production parameters and the trial-and-error approach is most often the only resolution. To have a much better insight into the process the chemical reactions during stabilization have to be analyzed particularly. Therefore, a model of the chemical reactions (cyclization, dehydration, and oxidation) based on the research of Dunham and Edie has been developed. With the presented model, it is possible to perform a complete simulation of the fibre undergoing all zones of stabilization. The fiber bundle is modeled as several circular fibers with a layer of air in-between. Two thermal mechanisms are considered to be the most important: the exothermic reactions inside the fiber and the convective heat transfer between the fiber and the air. The exothermic reactions inside the fibers are modeled as a heat source. Differential scanning calorimetry measurements have been performed to estimate the amount of heat of the reactions. To shorten the required time of a simulation, the number of fibers is decreased by similitude theory. Experiments were conducted to validate the simulation results of the fibre temperature during stabilization. The experiments for the validation were conducted on a pilot scale stabilization oven. To measure the fibre bundle temperature, a new measuring method is developed. The comparison of the results shows that the developed simulation model gives good approximations for the temperature profile of the fibre bundle during the stabilization process.

Keywords: carbon fibre, coupled simulation, exothermic reactions, fibre-air-interface

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Authors: Eva Nedeliakova, Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj

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This article describes the results of research focused on quality of railway freight transport services. Improvement of these services has a crucial importance in customer considering on the future use of railway transport. Processes filling the customer demands and output quality assessment were defined as a part of the research. In this, contribution is introduced the map of quality planning and the algorithm of applied methodology. It characterises a model which takes into account characters of transportation with linking a perception services quality in ordinary and extraordinary operation. Despite the fact that rail freight transport has its solid position in the transport market, lots of carriers worldwide have been experiencing a stagnation for a couple of years. Therefore, specific results of the research have a significant importance and belong to numerous initiatives aimed to develop and support railway transport not only by creating a single railway area or reducing noise but also by promoting railway services. This contribution is focused also on the application of dynamic quality models which represent an innovative method of evaluation quality services. Through this conception, time factor, expected and perceived quality in each moment of the transportation process can be taken into account.

Keywords: quality, railway, transport, service

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Authors: Maryam Tajadod

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The treatment of cancer is one of the main challenges of nuclear medicine; while cancer begins in an organ, such as the breast or prostate, it spreads to the bone, resulting in metastatic bone. In the treatment of cancer with radiotherapy, the determination of the involved tissues’ dose is one of the important steps in the treatment protocol. Comparing absorbed doses for Lu-177 and Ra-223 and Ac-225 in the bone marrow and soft tissue of bone phantom with evaluating energetic emitted particles of these radionuclides is the important aim of this research. By the use of MCNPX computer code, a model for bone phantom was designed and the values of absorbed dose for Ra-223 and Ac-225, which are Alpha emitters & Lu-177, which is a beta emitter, were calculated. As a result of research, in comparing gamma radiation for three radionuclides, Lu-177 released the highest dose in the bone marrow and Ra-223 achieved the lowest level. On the other hand, the result showed that although the figures of absorbed dose for Ra and Ac in the bone marrow are near to each other, Ra spread more energy in cortical bone. Moreover, The alpha component of the Ra-223 and Ac-225 have very little effect on bone marrow and soft tissue than a beta component of the lu-177 and it leaves the highest absorbed dose in the bone where the source is located.

Keywords: bone metastases, lutetium-177, radium-223, actinium-225, absorbed dose

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Authors: Hanmei Peng, Yiqun Wang, Mao Tan, Zhuocen Dai, Yongxin Su

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Efficient energy management in multi-microgrid distribution systems holds significant importance for enhancing the economic benefits of regional power grids. To better balance conflicts among various stakeholders, a two-stage game-based collaborative optimization approach is proposed in this paper, effectively addressing the realistic scenario involving both competition and collaboration among stakeholders. The first stage, aimed at maximizing individual benefits, involves constructing a non-cooperative tariff game model for the distribution network and surplus microgrid. In the second stage, considering power flow and physical line capacity constraints we establish a cooperative P2P game model for the multi-microgrid distribution system, and the optimization involves employing the Lagrange method of multipliers to handle complex constraints. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively improve the system economics while harmonizing individual and collective rationality.

Keywords: cooperative game, collaborative optimization, multi-microgrid distribution system, non-cooperative game

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Authors: Sibongile Masemola

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In 2018, South Africa decriminalised recreational cannabis use and private cultivation, since then, cannabis businesses have been established to meet the demand. However, marketing activities remain limited in this industry, and businesses are unable to disseminate promotional messages, however, as a solution, firms can promote their brands and positioning instead of the actual product (Bick, 2015). Branding is essential to create differences among cannabis firms and to attract and keep customers (Abrahamsson, 2014). Building cannabis firms into brands can better position them in the mind of the consumer so that they become and remain competitive. The aim of this study was to explore how South African cannabis retailers can build brand equity in a stigmatised market, despite significant restrictions on marketing efforts. Keller’s (2001) customer-based brand equity (CBBE) model was used as the as the theoretical framework and explored how cannabis firms build their businesses into brands through developing their brand identity, meaning, performance, and relationships, and ultimately creating brand equity. The study employed a qualitative research method, using semi-structured in-depth interviews among 17 participants to gain insights from cannabis owners and marketers in the recreational cannabis environment. Most findings were presented according to the blocks of CBBE model. Furthermore, a conceptual framework named the stigma-based brand equity (SBBE) model was adapted from Keller’s CBBE model to include an additional building block that accounts for industry-specific characteristics unique to stigmatised markets. Findings revealed the pervasiveness of education and its significance to brand building in a stigmatised industry. Results also demonstrated the overall effect stigma has on businesses and their consumers due to the longstanding negative evaluations of cannabis. Hence, through stigma-bonding, brands can develop deep identity-related psychological bonds with their consumers that will potentially lead to strong brand resonance. This study aims to contribute business-relevant knowledge for firms operating in core-stigmatised markets under controlled marketing regulations by exploring how cannabis firms can build brand equity. Practically, this study presents recommendations for retailers in stigmatised markets on how to destigmatise, build brand identity, create brand meaning, elicit desired brand responses, and develop brand relationships – ultimately building brand equity.

Keywords: branding, brand equity, cannabis, organisational stigma

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Authors: Stefan Fuchs

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Against the backdrop of the proliferation of shopping malls in Japan during the last two decades, this paper presents the results of an ethnography conducted at a recently built suburban shopping mall in Western Tokyo. Through the analysis of the lived experiences of local residents, mall customers and the mall management this paper evaluates the benefits and disadvantages of the Business Improvement District (BID) model, which was implemented as urban redevelopment strategy in the area surrounding the shopping mall. The results of this research project show that while the BID model has in some respects contributed to the economic prosperity and to the perceived convenience of the area, it has led to gentrification and the redevelopment shows some deficiencies with regard to the inclusion of the elderly population as well as to the democratization of the decision-making process within the area. In Japan, shopping malls have been steadily growing both in size and number since a series of deregulation policies was introduced in the year 2000 in an attempt to push the domestic economy and to rejuvenate urban landscapes. Shopping malls have thereby become defining spaces of the built environment and are arguably important places of social interaction. Notwithstanding the vital role they play as factors of urban transformation, they have been somewhat overlooked in the research on Japan; especially with respect to their meaning for people’s everyday lives. By examining the ways, people make use of space in a shopping mall the research project presented in this paper addresses this gap in the research. Moreover, the research site of this research project is one of the few BIDs of Japan and the results presented in this paper can give indication on the scope of the future applicability of this urban redevelopment model. The data presented in this research was collected during a nine-months ethnographic fieldwork in and around the shopping mall. This ethnography includes semi-structured interviews with ten key informants as well as direct and participant observations examining the lived experiences and perceptions of people living, shopping or working at the shopping mall. The analysis of the collected data focused on recurring themes aiming at ultimately capturing different perspectives on the same aspects. In this manner, the research project documents the social agency of different groups within one communal network. The analysis of the perceptions towards the urban redevelopment around the shopping mall has shown that mainly the mall customers and large businesses benefit from the BID redevelopment model. While local residents benefit to some extent from their neighbourhood becoming more convenient for shopping they perceive themselves as being disadvantaged by changing demographics due to rising living expenses, the general noise level and the prioritisation of a certain customer segment or age group at the shopping mall. Although the shopping mall examined in this research project is just an example, the findings suggest that in future urban redevelopment politics have to provide incentives for landowners and developing companies to think of other ways of transforming underdeveloped areas.

Keywords: business improvement district, ethnography, shopping mall, urban redevelopment

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Authors: Jean Rosemond Dora, Karol Nemoga

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In this work, we tackle a frequent problem that frequently occurs in the cybersecurity field which is the exploitation of websites by XSS attacks, which are nowadays considered a complicated attack. These types of attacks aim to execute malicious scripts in a web browser of the client by including code in a legitimate web page. A serious matter is when a website accepts the “user-input” option. Attackers can exploit the web application (if vulnerable), and then steal sensitive data (session cookies, passwords, credit cards, etc.) from the server and/or from the client. However, the difficulty of the exploitation varies from website to website. Our focus is on the usage of ontology in cybersecurity against XSS attacks, on the importance of the ontology, and its core meaning for cybersecurity. We explain how a vulnerable website can be exploited, and how different JavaScript payloads can be used to detect vulnerabilities. We also enumerate some tools to use for an efficient analysis. We present detailed reasoning on what can be done to improve the security of a website in order to resist attacks, and we provide supportive examples. Then, we apply an ontology model against XSS attacks to strengthen the protection of a web application. However, we note that the existence of ontology does not improve the security itself, but it has to be properly used and should require a maximum of security layers to be taken into account.

Keywords: cybersecurity, web application vulnerabilities, cyber threats, ontology model

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Authors: Riham Barbar

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This paper studies the dynamic effects of charitable giving in a Ramsey model à la Becker and Foias (1994), such that heterogeneity is reduced to two types of agents: rich and poor. It is assumed that rich show a great concern for poor and enjoy giving. The introduction of charitable giving in this paper is inspired from the notion of Zakat (borrowed from the Islamic Economics) and is defined according to the warm-glow of Andreoni (1990). In this framework, we prove the existence of a steady state where only the patient agent holds capital. Furthermore, we show that local indetermincay appears. While moderate values of charitable-giving elasticity makes the appearance of endogenous fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations more likely, high values of this elasticity stabilizes endogenous fluctuations, by narrowing down the range of parameter values compatible with local indeterminacy and may rule out expectations-driven fluctuations if it exceeds certain threshold. Finally, cycles of period two emerge. However, charitable-giving makes it less likely for these cycles to emerge.

Keywords: charitable giving, warm-glow, bifurcations, heterogeneous agents, indeterminacy, self-fulfilling expectations, endogenous fluctuations

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Authors: Mojtaba Valinejadshoubi, Ashutosh Bagchi, Osama Moselhi

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Structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, wind turbines etc. need to be maintained against various factors such as deterioration, excessive loads, environment, temperature, etc. Choosing an appropriate monitoring system is important for determining any critical damage to a structure and address that to avoid any adverse consequence. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) has emerged as an effective technique to monitor the health of the structures. SHM refers to an ongoing structural performance assessment using different kinds of sensors attached to or embedded in the structures to evaluate their integrity and safety to help engineers decide on rehabilitation measures. Ability of SHM in identifying the location and severity of structural damages by considering any changes in characteristics of the structures such as their frequency, stiffness and mode shapes helps engineers to monitor the structures and take the most effective corrective actions to maintain their safety and extend their service life. The main objective of this study is to review the overall SHM process specifically determining the natural frequency of an instrumented simply-supported concrete beam using modal testing and finite element model updating.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, natural frequency, modal analysis, finite element model updating

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Authors: Mustapha Babatunde, Bassam Tawabini, Ole John Nielson

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Air dispersion (AD) models such as AERMOD are important tools for estimating the environmental impacts of air pollutant emissions into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. The outcome of these models is significantly linked to the climate condition like air temperature, which is expected to differ in the future due to the global warming phenomenon. With projections from scientific sources of impending changes to the future climate of Saudi Arabia, especially anticipated temperature rise, there is a potential direct impact on the dispersion patterns of air pollutants results from AD models. To our knowledge, no similar studies were carried out in Saudi Arabia to investigate such impact. Therefore, this research investigates the effects of climate temperature change on air quality in the Dammam Metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia, using AERMOD coupled with Station data using Sulphur dioxide (SO2) – as a model air pollutant. The research uses AERMOD model to predict the SO2 dispersion trends on the surrounding area. Emissions from five (5) industrial stacks, on twenty-eight (28) receptors in the study area were considered for the climate period (2010-2019) and future period of mid-century (2040-2060) under different scenarios of elevated temperature profiles (+1oC, + 3oC and + 5oC) across averaging time periods of 1hr, 4hr and 8hr. Results showed that levels of SO2 at the receiving sites under current and simulated future climactic condition fall within the allowable limit of WHO and KSA air quality standards. Results also revealed that the projected rise in temperature would only have mild increment on the SO2 concentration levels. The average increase of SO2 levels were 0.04%, 0.14%, and 0.23% due to the temperature increase of 1, 3, and 5 degrees respectively. In conclusion, the outcome of this work elucidates the degree of the effects of global warming and climate changes phenomena on air quality and can help the policymakers in their decision-making, given the significant health challenges associated with ambient air pollution in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: air quality, sulphur dioxide, global warming, air dispersion model

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Authors: Mahesh Balan U, Rohith Srinivaas Mohanakrishnan, Venkat Subramanian

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Positive and unlabeled learning (PU) has gained more attention in both academic and industry research literature recently because of its relevance to existing business problems today. Yet, there still seems to be some existing challenges in terms of validating the performance of PU learning, as the actual truth of unlabeled data points is still unknown in contrast to a binary classification where we know the truth. In this study, we propose a novel PU learning technique based on the Pseudo-F measure, where we address this research gap. In this approach, we train the PU model to discriminate the probability distribution of the positive and unlabeled in the validation and spy data. The predicted probabilities of the PU model have a two-fold validation – (a) the predicted probabilities of reliable positives and predicted positives should be from the same distribution; (b) the predicted probabilities of predicted positives and predicted unlabeled should be from a different distribution. We experimented with this approach on a credit marketing case study in one of the world’s biggest fintech platforms and found evidence for benchmarking performance and backtested using historical data. This study contributes to the existing literature on semi-supervised learning.

Keywords: PU learning, semi-supervised learning, pseudo f measure, classification

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Authors: Rizwan Fazal

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This study investigates the behavior of external sector of Pakistan economy and its impact on economic growth, using quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. External sector indices used in this study are financial integration, net foreign assets and trade integration. Augmented Ducky fuller confirms that all variables of external sector are non-stationary at level, but at first difference it becomes stationary. The co-integration test suggests one co-integrating variables in the study. The analysis is based on Vector Auto Regression model followed by Vector Error Correction Model. The empirical findings show that financial integration play important role in increasing economic growth in Pakistan economy while trade integration has negative effect on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run. However, the short run confirms that output lag accounts for error correction. The estimated CUSUM and CUSUMQ stability test provide information that the period of the study equation remains stable.

Keywords: financial integration, trade integration, net foreign assets, gross domestic product

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Authors: Tosin Deborah Akanbi

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The Building Information Modeling Execution Plan (BEP) is a document that manifests the specifications for the adoption and execution of building information modeling in the construction sector in an organized manner so as to attain the listed goals. In this regard, the study examined the barriers to the adoption of building information modeling, evaluated the effect of building information modeling adoption characteristics on the key elements of a building information modeling execution plan and developed a strategic framework for a BEP in the Lagos State construction industry. Data were gathered through a questionnaire survey with 332 construction professionals in the study area. Three online structured interviews were conducted to support and validate the findings of the quantitative analysis. The results showed the significant relationships and connections between the variables in the framework: BIM usage and model quality control (aBIMskill -> dMQ, Beta = 0.121, T statistics = 1.829), BIM adoption characteristics and information exchange (bBIM_CH -> dIE, Beta = 0.128, T statistics = 1.727), BIM adoption characteristics and process design (bBIM_CH -> dPD, Beta = 0.170, T statistics = 2.754), BIM adoption characteristics and roles and responsibilities (bBIM_CH -> dRR, Beta = 0.131, T statistics = 2.181), interest BIM barriers and BIM adoption characteristics (cBBIM_INT -> bBIM_CH, Beta = 0.137, T statistics = 2.309), legal BIM barriers and BIM adoption characteristics (cBBIM_LEG -> bBIM_CH, Beta = 0.168, T statistics = 2.818), professional BIM barriers and BIM adoption characteristics (cBBIM_PRO -> bBIM_CH, Beta = 0.152, T statistics = 2.645). The results also revealed that seven final themes were generated, namely: model structure and process design, BIM information exchange and collaboration procedures, project goals and deliverables, project model quality control, roles and responsibilities, reflect Lagos state construction industry and validity of the BEP framework. Thus, there is a need for the policy makers to direct interventions to promote, encourage and support the understanding and adoption of BIM by emphasizing the various benefits of using the technology in the Lagos state construction industry.

Keywords: building information modelling execution plan, BIM adoption characteristics, BEP framework, construction industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 22

Authors: T. H. N. Nguyen, A. Khodan, M. Amamra, J-V. Vignes, A. Kanaev

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The ultraporous nanofibrous alumina (NOA, Al2O3·nH2O) was synthesized by oxidation of laminated aluminium plates through a liquid mercury-silver layer in a humid atmosphere ~80% at 25°C. The material has an extremely high purity (99%), porosity (90%) and specific area (300 m2/g). The subsequent annealing of raw NOA permits obtaining pure transition phase (γ and θ) nanostructured materials. In this combination, we report on chemical, structural and phase transformations of pure and modified NOA by an impregnation of trimethylethoxysilane (TMES) and tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) during thermal annealing in the temperature range between 20 and 1650°C. The mass density, specific area, average diameter and specific area are analysed. The 3D model of pure NOA monoliths and silica modified NOA is proposed, which successfully describes the evolution of specific area, mass density and phase transformations. Activation energies of the mass transport in two regimes of surface diffusion and bulk sintering were obtained based on this model. We conclude about a common origin of modifications of the NOA morphology, chemical composition and phase transition.

Keywords: nanostructured materials, alumina (Al₂O₃), morphology, phase transitions

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Regina A. Tayong, Reza Barati

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A stable, fast and robust three-phase, 2D IMPES simulator has been developed for assessing the influence of; breaker concentration on yield stress of filter cake and broken gel viscosity, varying polymer concentration/yield stress along the fracture face, fracture conductivity, fracture length, capillary pressure changes and formation damage on fracturing fluid cleanup in tight gas reservoirs. This model has been validated as against field data reported in the literature for the same reservoir. A 2-D, two-phase (gas/water) fracture propagation model is used to model our invasion zone and create the initial conditions for our clean-up model by distributing 200 bbls of water around the fracture. A 2-D, three-phase IMPES simulator, incorporating a yield-power-law-rheology has been developed in MATLAB to characterize fluid flow through a hydraulically fractured grid. The variation in polymer concentration along the fracture is computed from a material balance equation relating the initial polymer concentration to total volume of injected fluid and fracture volume. All governing equations and the methods employed have been adequately reported to permit easy replication of results. The effect of increasing capillary pressure in the formation simulated in this study resulted in a 10.4% decrease in cumulative production after 100 days of fluid recovery. Increasing the breaker concentration from 5-15 gal/Mgal on the yield stress and fluid viscosity of a 200 lb/Mgal guar fluid resulted in a 10.83% increase in cumulative gas production. For tight gas formations (k=0.05 md), fluid recovery increases with increasing shut-in time, increasing fracture conductivity and fracture length, irrespective of the yield stress of the fracturing fluid. Mechanical induced formation damage combined with hydraulic damage tends to be the most significant. Several correlations have been developed relating pressure distribution and polymer concentration to distance along the fracture face and average polymer concentration variation with injection time. The gradient in yield stress distribution along the fracture face becomes steeper with increasing polymer concentration. The rate at which the yield stress (τ_o) is increasing is found to be proportional to the square of the volume of fluid lost to the formation. Finally, an improvement on previous results was achieved through simulating yield stress variation along the fracture face rather than assuming constant values because fluid loss to the formation and the polymer concentration distribution along the fracture face decreases as we move away from the injection well. The novelty of this three-phase flow model lies in its ability to (i) Simulate yield stress variation with fluid loss volume along the fracture face for different initial guar concentrations. (ii) Simulate increasing breaker activity on yield stress and broken gel viscosity and the effect of (i) and (ii) on cumulative gas production within reasonable computational time.

Keywords: formation damage, hydraulic fracturing, polymer cleanup, multiphase flow numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Mahesh M. Patil, K. A. Anu-Appaiah

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Overweight and obesity is a serious medical problem, increasing in prevalence, and affecting millions worldwide. Investigators have been trying from decades to articulate the burden of obesity and related risk factors. To answer this problem, we suggest a new therapeutic anti-obesity compounds from Garcinia xanthochymus fruit. However, there is little published scientific information on non-hydroxycitric acid Garcinia species. Our findings include biochemical characterization of the fruit; in vivo toxicity and bio-efficacy study of G. xanthochymus in high fat diet wistar rat model. We observed that Garcinia pericarp is a rich source of organic acids, polyphenols, mono- (40.63%) and poly-unsaturated fatty acids (16.45%; omega-3: 10.02%). Toxicological studies have showed that Garcinia is safe and had no observed adverse effect level up to 400 mg/kg/day. Body weight and food intake was significantly (P<0.05) reduced in oral gavage treated rats (sonicated Garcinia powder) in 13 weeks. Subcutaneous fat was significantly (P<0.05) reduced in Garcinia treated rats. Hepatocytes significantly (p<0.05) overexpressed sterol regulatory element binding protein 2, liver X receptor- α, liver X receptor- β, lipoprotein lipase and monoacylglycerol lipase. Fatty acid binding protein 1 and peroxisome proliferator activated receptor- α were down regulated as assessed by real time qPCR. Currently our research is focused on the adipocyte obesity related gene expressions, effect of Garcinia on 3T3-adipocyte cell lines and high fat diet induced mice model. This in vivo pre-clinical data suggests that G. xanthochymus may have clinical utility for the treatment of obesity. However, further studies are required to establish its potency.

Keywords: Garcinia xanthochymus, anti-obesity, high fat diet, real time qPCR

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Suheyla Demi̇rkol Orak

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The requirement of inclusive education is one of the utmost important results of both regular and irregular immigration. The matter in the case of Syrian immigrants is even worse than the other immigrants cases in world history since a massive immigration wave has affected all world countries' socio-economic profiles. When Syrians immigrated from Syria all over the world, they aimed to survive and left behind the war, but surviving is not optional occasion without handling language-related problems. Humans exist and preserve their existence with their language. That is a matter of concern for the integration of Syrians into the hosting countries. Many countries are proceeding with various programs to integrate Syrians into the majority groups by either assimilation or adaptation policies. Turkey has got the lion's share of the Syrian immigration apple, and in the same vein with this situation, its language education system should be analyzed severely in order to come up with a perfect match program for the integration of Syrians. It aimed to generate an inclusive education model for catalyzing the integration process of immigrant Syrian students into the majority socio-economic group via overcoming the language barrier. The identity of the immigrants is prioritized. The study follows a narrative literature review, which aims to review and critique relevant literature and offers a new conceptualization derived from the previous literature. The study derives a critical localized bilingual education model. As the outcome of the narrative literature review, a bilingual education model which prioritized the identity of the target community was designed. In the present study, main bilingual education programs and most of the countries' bilingual education policies were reviewed critically and suggestions were listed for the Syrian immigrants dominantly in Turkey and suggested to be benefitted by the other countries through localizing the practices.

Keywords: bi/multilingual education, sheltered education, immigrants, glocalization, submersion program, immersion program

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

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In this paper, we want to determine whether the accurate prediction of nicotine concentration can be obtained by using a network of smart objects and an e-cigarette. The approach consists of, first, the recognition of factors influencing smoking cessation such as physical activity recognition and participant’s behaviors (using both smartphone and smartwatch), then the prediction of the configuration of the e-cigarette (in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance of e-cigarette). The study uses a network of commonly connected objects; a smartwatch, a smartphone, and an e-cigarette transported by the participants during an uncontrolled experiment. The data obtained from sensors carried in the three devices were trained by a Long short-term memory algorithm (LSTM). Results show that our LSTM-based model allows predicting the configuration of the e-cigarette in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance with a root mean square error percentage of 12.9%, 9.15%, and 11.84%, respectively. This study can help to better control consumption of nicotine and offer an intelligent configuration of the e-cigarette to users.

Keywords: Iot, activity recognition, automatic classification, unconstrained environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Younes El Khchine

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A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×105 and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, causing earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, s809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Jiaqi Zhang, Zhi Dong, Pan Xing

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With the continuous development of urban agglomerations, higher demands are placed on intercity public transport travel services. To improve these services, it is necessary to comprehensively understand the views and evaluations of travelers. Taking the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration in China as the object, this study explores subjective attitude indicators from self-administrated survey data and examines the relationship among perceived accessibility, preference, and satisfaction for intercity public transport using a structural equation model. The results show that perceived service quality has a direct positive impact on perceived accessibility and satisfaction. Perceived accessibility and preference significantly affect satisfaction. In addition, perceived accessibility mediates the effect of service quality on satisfaction. This study provides valuable insights from a policy perspective to improve the subjective evaluation of intercity public transport travelers while emphasizing the importance of subjective variables in transport system evaluation and advocates for their subdivision to more comprehensively improve the travel experience.

Keywords: intercity public transport, perceived accessibility, satisfaction, structural equation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Yulii D. Shikhmurzaev

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The modelling of the non-isothermal free-surface flows coupled with the solidification process has become the topic of intensive research with the advent of additive manufacturing, where complex 3-dimensional structures are produced by successive deposition and solidification of microscopic droplets of different materials. The issue is that both the spreading of liquids over solids and the propagation of the solidification front into the fluid and along the solid substrate pose fundamental difficulties for their mathematical modelling. The first of these processes, known as ‘dynamic wetting’, leads to the well-known ‘moving contact-line problem’ where, as shown recently both experimentally and theoretically, the contact angle formed by the free surfac with the solid substrate is not a function of the contact-line speed but is rather a functional of the flow field. The modelling of the propagating solidification front requires generalization of the classical Stefan problem, which would be able to describe the onset of the process and the non-equilibrium regime of solidification. Furthermore, given that both dynamic wetting and solification occur concurrently and interactively, they should be described within the same conceptual framework. The present work addresses this formidable problem and presents a mathematical model capable of describing the key element of additive manufacturing in a self-consistent and singularity-free way. The model is illustrated simple examples highlighting its main features. The main idea of the work is that both dynamic wetting and solidification, as well as some other fluid flows, are particular cases in a general class of flows where interfaces form and/or disappear. This conceptual framework allows one to derive a mathematical model from first principles using the methods of irreversible thermodynamics. Crucially, the interfaces are not considered as zero-mass entities introduced using Gibbsian ‘dividing surface’ but the 2-dimensional surface phases produced by the continuum limit in which the thickness of what physically is an interfacial layer vanishes, and its properties are characterized by ‘surface’ parameters (surface tension, surface density, etc). This approach allows for the mass exchange between the surface and bulk phases, which is the essence of the interface formation. As shown numerically, the onset of solidification is preceded by the pure interface formation stage, whilst the Stefan regime is the final stage where the temperature at the solidification front asymptotically approaches the solidification temperature. The developed model can also be applied to the flow with the substrate melting as well as a complex flow where both types of phase transition take place.

Keywords: dynamic wetting, interface formation, phase transition, solidification

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: I. Derek Kaka’an, P. Smolianov, D. Koh Choon Lian, S. Dion, C. Schoen, J. Norberg

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This study was designed to examine mass participation and elite football performance in Nigeria with reference to advance international football management practices. Over 200 sources of literature on sport delivery systems were analyzed to construct a globally applicable model of elite football integrated with mass participation, comprising of the following three levels: macro- (socio-economic, cultural, legislative, and organizational), meso- (infrastructures, personnel, and services enabling sport programs) and micro-level (operations, processes, and methodologies for development of individual athletes). The model has received scholarly validation and showed to be a framework for program analysis that is not culturally bound. The Smolianov and Zakus model has been employed for further understanding of sport systems such as US soccer, US Rugby, swimming, tennis, and volleyball as well as Russian and Dutch swimming. A questionnaire was developed using the above-mentioned model. Survey questions were validated by 12 experts including academicians, executives from sport governing bodies, football coaches, and administrators. To identify best practices and determine areas for improvement of football in Nigeria, 120 coaches completed the questionnaire. Useful exemplars and possible improvements were further identified through semi-structured discussions with 10 Nigerian football administrators and experts. Finally, content analysis of Nigeria Football Federation’s website and organizational documentation was conducted. This paper focuses on the meso-level of Nigerian football delivery, particularly infrastructures, personnel, and services enabling sport programs. This includes training centers, competition systems, and intellectual services. Results identified remarkable achievements coupled with great potential to further develop football in different types of public and private organizations in Nigeria. These include: assimilating football competitions with other cultural and educational activities, providing favorable conditions for employees of all possible organizations to partake and help in managing football programs and events, providing football coaching integrated with counseling for prevention of antisocial conduct, and improving cooperation between football programs and organizations for peace-making and advancement of international relations, tourism, and socio-economic development. Accurate reporting of the sports programs from the media should be encouraged through staff training for better awareness of various events. The systematic integration of these meso-level practices into the balanced development of mass and high-performance football will contribute to international sport success as well as national health, education, and social harmony.

Keywords: football, high performance, mass participation, Nigeria, sport development

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Fu Lin

Abstract:

We consider the worst-case load-shedding problem in electric power networks where a number of transmission lines are to be taken out of service. The objective is to identify a prespecified number of line outages that lead to the maximum interruption of power generation and load at the transmission level, subject to the active power-flow model, the load and generation capacity of the buses, and the phase-angle limit across the transmission lines. For this nonlinear model with binary constraints, we show that all decision variables are separable except for the nonlinear power-flow equations. We develop an iterative decomposition algorithm, which converts the worst-case load shedding problem into a sequence of small subproblems. We show that the subproblems are either convex problems that can be solved efficiently or nonconvex problems that have closed-form solutions. Consequently, our approach is scalable for large networks. Furthermore, we prove the convergence of our algorithm to a critical point, and the objective value is guaranteed to decrease throughout the iterations. Numerical experiments with IEEE test cases demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed approach.

Keywords: load shedding, power system, proximal alternating linearization method, vulnerability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 142