Search results for: statistical modeling

Authors: Kai Jin, Hua Li, Qing Song

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Homeland security and border safety is an issue for any country. This paper takes the border security of US as an example to discuss the usage and efficiency of simulation tools in the homeland security application. In this study, available resources and different illegal infiltration parameters are defined, including their individual behavior and objective, in order to develop a model that describes border patrol system. A simulation model is created in Arena. This simulation model is used to study the dynamic activities in the border security. Possible factors that may affect the effectiveness of the border patrol system are proposed. Individual and factorial analysis of these factors is conducted and some suggestions are made.

Keywords: resource optimization, simulation, modeling, border security

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Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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Authors: Saritdikhun Somasa

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3D printing fabrication has empowered many artists in many fields. Artists who work in stop motion, 3D modeling, toy design, product design, sculpture, and fine arts become one-stop shop operations–where they can design, prototype, and distribute their designs for commercial or fine art purposes. The author has developed a digital sculpting course that fosters digital software, peripheral hardware, and 3D printing with traditional sculpting concept techniques to address the complexities of this multifaceted process, allowing the students to produce complex 3d-printed work. The author will detail the preparation and planning for pre- to post-process 3D printing elements, including software, materials, space, equipment, tools, and schedule consideration for small to medium figurine design statues in a semester-long class. In addition, the author provides insight into teaching challenges in the non-studio space that requires students to work intensively on post-printed models to assemble parts, finish, and refine the 3D printed surface. Even though this paper focuses on the 3D printing processes and techniques for small to medium design statue projects for the Digital Media program, the author hopes the paper will benefit other fields of study such as craft practices, product design, and fine-arts programs. Other schools that might implement 3D printing and fabrication in their programs will find helpful information in this paper, such as a teaching plan, choices of equipment and materials, adaptation for non-studio spaces, and putting together a complete and well-resolved project for students.

Keywords: 3D digital modeling, 3D digital sculpting, 3D modeling, 3D printing, 3D digital fabrication

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Authors: T. Qasim, M. Alqawasmi, M. Hawash, M. Betar, W. Qasim

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Over the last decade, the over population that has happened in urban areas has been reflecting on the services that various local institutions provide to car users in the form of car parks, which is becoming a daily necessity in our lives. This study focuses on car parks at Jordan University of Science and Technology, in Irbid, Jordan, to understand the university parking needs. Data regarding arrival and departure times of cars and the parking utilization were collected, to find various options that the university can implement to solve and develop an efficient car parking system. Arena software was used to simulate a parking model. This model allows measuring the different solutions that solve the parking problem at Jordan University of Science and Technology.

Keywords: car park, simulation, modeling, service time

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Authors: Jane A. Luke

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Persistent pressure passed on to manufacturers from escalating consumer expectations and the ever growing global competitiveness have produced a rapidly increasing interest in the development of various manufacturing strategy models. Academic and industrial circles are taking keen interest in the field of manufacturing strategy. Many manufacturing strategies are currently centered on the traditional concepts of focused manufacturing capabilities such as quality, cost, dependability and innovation. Process capability indices was conducted assuming that the process under study is in statistical control and independent observations are generated over time. However, in practice, it is very common to come across processes which, due to their inherent natures, generate autocorrelated observations. The degree of autocorrelation affects the behavior of patterns on control charts. Even, small levels of autocorrelation between successive observations can have considerable effects on the statistical properties of conventional control charts. When observations are autocorrelated the classical control charts exhibit nonrandom patterns and lack of control. Many authors have considered the effect of autocorrelation on the performance of statistical process control charts. In this paper, the effect of autocorrelation on confidence intervals for different PCIs was included. Stationary Gaussian processes is explained. Effect of autocorrelation on PCIs is described in detail. Confidence intervals for Cp and Cpk are constructed for PCIs when data are both independent and autocorrelated. Confidence intervals for Cp and Cpk are computed. Approximate lower confidence limits for various Cpk are computed assuming AR(1) model for the data. Simulation studies and industrial examples are considered to demonstrate the results.

Keywords: autocorrelation, AR(1) model, Bissell’s approximation, confidence intervals, statistical process control, specification limits, stationary Gaussian processes

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Authors: Bojan Najdenov, Danco Davcev

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Reduction of traffic congestions and the effects of pollution and waste of resources that come with them has been a big challenge in the past decades. Having reliable systems to facilitate the process of modeling and prediction of traffic conditions would not only reduce the environmental pollution, but will also save people time and money. Social networks play big role of people’s lives nowadays providing them means of communicating and sharing thoughts and ideas, that way generating huge knowledge bases by crowdsourcing. In addition to that, crowdsourcing as a concept provides mechanisms for fast and relatively reliable data generation and also many services are being used on regular basis because they are mainly powered by the public as main content providers. In this paper we present the Social-NETS-Traffic-Control System (SNTCS) that should serve as a facilitator in the process of modeling and prediction of traffic congestions. The main contribution of our system is to integrate data from social networks as Twitter and also implements a custom created crowdsourcing subsystem with which users report traffic conditions using an android application. Our first experience of the usage of the system confirms that the integrated approach allows easy extension of the system with other social networks and represents a very useful tool for traffic control.

Keywords: traffic, congestion reduction, crowdsource, social networks, twitter, android

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Authors: Stefano Zappacosta, Cristiano Bove, Maria Carmela Marinelli, Paola di Lauro, Katarina Spasenovic, Lorenzo Ostano, Giuseppe Aiello, Marco Pietrosanto

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This paper proposes a novel neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The proposed hybrid model can be used to classify four different increasing levels of hazard. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale). The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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Authors: Michael Alsop, Hannah Heitz, Prathiba Natesan Batley, Marion Hambrick, Jason Immekus

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The impacts of cultural engagement on individuals’ health and well-being have been well documented. The purposes of this study were to create an instrument to measure wellbeing constructs, including cultural wellbeing, and explore the relationships between cultural wellbeing and other wellbeing constructs (e.g., emotional, social, physical, spiritual). A sample of 358 participants attending concerts performed by a civic orchestra in the southeastern United States completed a questionnaire designed to measure eight wellbeing constructs. Split-half exploratory, confirmatory factor analyses resulted in the retention of four wellbeing constructs: general, emotional, financial, and cultural. Structural equation modeling showed statistically significant relationships between cultural wellbeing and other wellbeing constructs. In addition to the indirect effect of financial wellbeing on emotional and general wellbeing through cultural wellbeing, there were also direct statistically significant relationships (i.e., moderator). This highlights the importance of removing financial barriers to cultural engagement and the relationship between cultural wellbeing on emotional and general wellbeing. Additionally, the retained cultural wellbeing items focused primarily on community features, indicating the value of community-based cultural engagement opportunities.

Keywords: cultural wellbeing, cultural engagement, factor analysis, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Lei Lei, Hongbo Zhang, Donald J. Bergstrom, Bing Zhang, K. Y. Song, W. J. Zhang

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This paper presents a model for a modified T-junction device for microspheres generation. The numerical model is developed using a commercial software package: COMSOL Multiphysics. In order to test the accuracy of the numerical model, multiple variables, such as the flow rate of cross-flow, fluid properties, structure, and geometry of the microdevice are applied. The results from the model are compared with the experimental results in the diameter of the microsphere generated. The comparison shows a good agreement. Therefore the model is useful in further optimization of the device and feedback control of microsphere generation if any.

Keywords: CFD modeling, validation, microsphere generation, modified T-junction

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Authors: Kobi Kutsher

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On February 12th 2013, monitoring stations of the Preparatory Commission of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) detected a seismic event with explosion-like underground characteristics in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The location was found to be in the vicinity of the two previous announced nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.The nuclear test was also announced by the government of the DPRK.After an underground nuclear explosion, radioactive fission products (mostly noble gases) can seep through layers of rock and sediment until they escape into the atmosphere. The fission products are dispersed in the atmosphere and may be detected thousands of kilometers downwind from the test site. Indeed, more than 7 weeks after the explosion, unusual detections of noble gases was reported at the radionuclide station in Takasaki, Japan. The radionuclide station is a part of the International Monitoring System, operated to verify the CTBT. This study provides an estimation of the possible source region and the total radioactivity of the release using Atmospheric Transport Modeling.

Keywords: atmospheric transport modeling, CTBTO, nuclear tests, radioactive fission products

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Authors: H. Shokouhmand, M. Tajerian

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At this paper velocity profile modeling and heat transfer in the micro heat pipes by using electrohydrodynamic (EHD) field at the transient regime have been studied. In the transient flow, one dimensional and two phase fluid flow and heat transfer for micro heat pipes with square cross section, have been studied. At this model Coulomb and dielectrophoretic forces are considered. Coupled, non-linear equations governed on the model (continuity, momentum, and energy equations) have been solved simultaneously by numerical methods. Transient behavior of affecting parameters e.g. substrate temperature, velocity of coolant liquid, radius of curvature and coolant liquid pressure, has been verified. By obtaining and plotting the mentioned parameters, it has been shown that the EHD field enhances the heat transfer process. So, the time required to reach the steady state regime decreases from 16 seconds to 2.4 seconds after applying EHD field. Another result has been observed implicitly that by increasing the heat input the effect of EHD field became more significant. The numerical results of model predict the experimental results available in the literature successfully, and it has been observed there is a good agreement between them.

Keywords: micro heat pipe, transient modeling, electrohydrodynamics, capillary, meniscus

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Authors: Mahmoud Nadir, Adel Ghenaiet

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The main purpose of this study is the thermodynamic modeling, the parametric analysis, and the optimization of three pressure level reheat HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) using PSO method (Particle Swarm Optimization). In this paper, a parametric analysis followed by a thermodynamic optimization is presented. The chosen objective function is the specific work of the steam cycle that may be, in the case of combined cycle (CC), a good criterion of thermodynamic performance analysis, contrary to the conventional steam turbines in which the thermal efficiency could be also an important criterion. The technologic constraints such as maximal steam cycle temperature, minimal steam fraction at steam turbine outlet, maximal steam pressure, minimal stack temperature, minimal pinch point, and maximal superheater effectiveness are also considered. The parametric analyses permitted to understand the effect of design parameters and the constraints on steam cycle specific work variation. PSO algorithm was used successfully in HRSG optimization, knowing that the achieved results are in accordance with those of the previous studies in which genetic algorithms were used. Moreover, this method is easy to implement comparing with the other methods.

Keywords: combined cycle, HRSG thermodynamic modeling, optimization, PSO, steam cycle specific work

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Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl

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This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.

Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine

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Authors: Mehran Dizbadi, Daniyal Safarzadeh, Behrooz Arastoo, Ansgar Brunn

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Rapid and uncontrolled expansion of cities has led to unplanned aerial development. In this way, modeling and predicting the urban growth of a city helps decision-makers. In this study, the aspect of sustainable urban development has been studied for the city of Mashhad. In general, the prediction of urban aerial development is one of the most important topics of modern town management. In this research, using the Cellular Automaton (CA) model developed for geo data of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and presenting a simple and powerful model, a simulation of complex urban processes has been done.

Keywords: urban modeling, sustainable development, fuzzy cellular automaton, geo-information system

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Authors: S. Khamtree, T. Ratanawilai, C. Nuntadusit

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Rubberwood is a crucial commercial timber in Southern Thailand. All processes in a rubberwood production depend on the knowledge and expertise of the technicians, especially the drying process. This research aims to develop an empirical model for drying kinetics in rubberwood. During the experiment, the temperature of the hot air and the average air flow velocity were kept at 80-100 °C and 1.75 m/s, respectively. The moisture content in the samples was determined less than 12% in the achievement of drying basis. The drying kinetic was simulated using an empirical solver. The experimental results illustrated that the moisture content was reduced whereas the drying temperature and time were increased. The coefficient of the moisture ratio between the empirical and the experimental model was tested with three statistical parameters, R-square (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Chi-square (χ²) to predict the accuracy of the parameters. The experimental moisture ratio had a good fit with the empirical model. Additionally, the results indicated that the drying of rubberwood using the Henderson and Pabis model revealed the suitable level of agreement. The result presented an excellent estimation (R² = 0.9963) for the moisture movement compared to the other models. Therefore, the empirical results were valid and can be implemented in the future experiments.

Keywords: empirical models, rubberwood, moisture ratio, hot air drying

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Authors: Filiz Ersoz, Taner Ersoz, Tugrul Bayraktar

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Renewable energy is referred to as "clean energy" and common popular support for the use of renewable energy (RE) is to provide electricity with zero carbon dioxide emissions. This study provides useful insight into the European Union (EU) RE, especially, into electricity generation obtained from renewables, and their targets. The objective of this study is to identify groups of European countries, using multivariate statistical analysis and selected indicators. The hierarchical clustering method is used to decide the number of clusters for EU countries. The conducted statistical hierarchical cluster analysis is based on the Ward’s clustering method and squared Euclidean distances. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified eight distinct clusters of European countries. Then, non-hierarchical clustering (k-means) method was applied. Discriminant analysis was used to determine the validity of the results with data normalized by Z score transformation. To explore the relationship between the selected indicators, correlation coefficients were computed. The results of the study reveal the current situation of RE in European Union Member States.

Keywords: share of electricity generation, k-means clustering, discriminant, CO2 emission

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Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

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A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

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Authors: Shael Brown, Reza Farivar

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Persistence diagrams capture valuable topological features of datasets that other methods cannot uncover. Still, their adoption in data pipelines has been limited due to the lack of publicly available tools in R (and python) for analyzing groups of them with machine learning and statistical inference. In an easy-to-use and scalable R package called TDApplied, we implement several applied analysis methods tailored to groups of persistence diagrams. The two main contributions of our package are comprehensiveness (most functions do not have implementations elsewhere) and speed (shown through benchmarking against other R packages). We demonstrate applications of the tools on simulated data to illustrate how easily practical analyses of any dataset can be enhanced with topological information.

Keywords: machine learning, persistence diagrams, R, statistical inference

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Authors: Hamidreza Bagheri, Alireza Shariati

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There are many difficulties in the purification of raw components and products. However, researchers are seeking better ways for purification. One of the recent methods is extraction using supercritical fluids. In this study, the phase equilibria of benzoic acid-supercritical carbon dioxide system were investigated. Regarding the phase equilibria of this system, the modeling of solid-supercritical fluid behavior was performed using the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) and Peng-Robinson equations of state (PR EoS). For this purpose, five PC-SAFT EoS parameters for pure benzoic acid were obtained using its experimental vapor pressure. Benzoic acid has association sites and the behavior of the benzoic acid-supercritical fluid system was well-predicted using both equations of state, while the binary interaction parameter values for PR EoS were negative. Genetic algorithm, which is one of the most accurate global optimization algorithms, was also used to optimize the pure benzoic acid parameters and the binary interaction parameters. The AAD% value for the PC-SAFT EoS, were 0.22 for the carbon dioxide-benzoic acid system.

Keywords: supercritical fluids, solubility, solid, PC-SAFT EoS, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

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The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

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Authors: David Quevedo, Diana Coronel

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The present article carries out an evaluation of the drinking water system in the Bellavista sector of the city of Azogues, with the purpose of determining the appropriate equipment to record the actual consumption flows of the inhabitants in said sector. Taking into account that the study area is located in a rural and economically disadvantaged area, there is an urgent need to establish a control system for the consumption of drinking water in order to conserve and manage the vital resource in the best possible way, considering that the water source supplying this sector is approximately 9km away. The research began with the collection of cartographic, demographic, and statistical data of the sector, determining the coverage area, population projection, and a provision that guarantees the supply of drinking water to meet the water needs of the sector's inhabitants. By using hydraulic modeling through the United States Environmental Protection Agency Application for Modeling Drinking Water Distribution Systems EPANET 2.0 software, theoretical hydraulic data were obtained, which were used to design and justify the most suitable measuring equipment for the Bellavista drinking water system. Taking into account a minimum service life of the drinking water system of 30 years, future flow rates were calculated for the design of the macro-measuring device. After analyzing the network, it was evident that the Bellavista sector has an average consumption of 102.87 liters per person per day, but considering that Ecuadorian regulations recommend a provision of 180 liters per person per day for the geographical conditions of the sector, this value was used for the analysis. With all the collected and calculated information, the conclusion was reached that the Bellavista drinking water system needs to have a 125mm electromagnetic macro-measuring device for the first three quinquenniums of its service life and a 150mm diameter device for the following three quinquenniums. The importance of having equipment that provides real and reliable data will allow for the control of water consumption by the population of the sector, measured through micro-measuring devices installed at the entrance of each household, which should match the readings of the macro-measuring device placed after the water storage tank outlet, in order to control losses that may occur due to leaks in the drinking water system or illegal connections.

Keywords: macrometer, hydraulics, endowment, water

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Authors: Sayed M. Soleimani, Nader H. Ghareeb, Nourhan H. Shaker, Muhammad B. Siddiqui

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Honeycomb sandwich panels have been widely used as protective structural elements against blast loading. The main advantages of these panels include their light weight due to the presence of voids, as well as their energy absorption capability. Terrorist activities have imposed new challenges to structural engineers to design protective measures for vital structures. Since blast loading is not usually considered in the load combinations during the design process of a structure, researchers around the world have been motivated to study the behavior of potential elements capable of resisting sudden loads imposed by the detonation of explosive materials. One of the best candidates for this objective is the honeycomb sandwich panel. Studying the effects of explosive materials on the panels requires costly and time-consuming experiments. Moreover, these type of experiments need permission from defense organizations which can become a hurdle. As a result, modeling and simulation using an appropriate tool can be considered as a good alternative. In this research work, the finite element package ABAQUS® is used to study the behavior of hexagonal and squared honeycomb steel sandwich panels under the explosive effects of different amounts of trinitrotoluene (TNT). The results of finite element modeling of a specific honeycomb configuration are initially validated by comparing them with the experimental results from literature. Afterwards, several configurations including different geometrical properties of the honeycomb wall are investigated and the results are compared with the original model. Finally, the effectiveness of the core shape and wall thickness are discussed, and conclusions are made.

Keywords: Abaqus, blast loading, finite element modeling, steel honeycomb sandwich panel

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Authors: Gholam Reza Mirzaei, Mehran Roost

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This research was conducted with the aim of predicting the relationship between coronavirus anxiety and psychological hardiness in employees working at Shahid Beheshti Hospital in Shiraz. The current research design was descriptive and correlational. The statistical population of the research consisted of all the employees of Shahid Beheshti Hospital in Shiraz in 2021. From among the statistical population, 220 individuals were selected and studied based on available sampling. To collect data, Kobasa's psychological hardiness questionnaire and coronavirus anxiety questionnaire were used. After collecting the data, the scores of the participants were analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficient multiple regression analysis and SPSS-24 statistical software. The results of Pearson's correlation coefficient showed that there is a significant negative correlation between psychological hardiness and its components (challenge, commitment, and control) with coronavirus anxiety; also, psychological hardiness with a beta coefficient of 0.20 could predict coronavirus anxiety in hospital employees. Based on the results, plans can be made to enhance psychological hardiness through educational workshops to relieve the anxiety of the healthcare staff.

Keywords: the corona virus, commitment, hospital employees, psychological hardiness

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Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

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Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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Authors: Y. Ruchi, A. Prerna, S. Deepshikha

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Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), also known as “Lou Gehrig’s disease”. It is a neurodegenerative disease associated with degeneration of motor neurons in the cerebral cortex, brain stem, and spinal cord characterized by distal muscle weakness, atrophy, normal sensation, pyramidal signs and progressive muscular paralysis reflecting. ALS2 is a juvenile autosomal recessive disorder, slowly progressive, that maps to chromosome 2q33 and is associated with mutations in the alsin gene, a putative GTPase regulator. In this paper we have done homology modeling of alsin2 protein using multiple templates (3KCI_A, 4LIM_A, 402W_A, 4D9S_A, and 4DNV_A) designed using the Prime program in Schrödinger software. Further modeled structure is used to identify effective binding sites on the basis of structural and physical properties using sitemap program in Schrödinger software, structural and function analysis is done by using Prosite and ExPASy server that gives insight into conserved domains and motifs that can be used for protein classification. This paper summarizes the structural, functional and binding site property of alsin2 protein. These binding sites can be potential drug target sites and can be used for docking studies.

Keywords: ALS, binding site, homology modeling, neuronal degeneration

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Authors: Jose Flores, Nadia Gamboa

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A proper water quality management requires the establishment of a monitoring network. Therefore, evaluation of the efficiency of water quality monitoring networks is needed to ensure high-quality data collection of critical quality chemical parameters. Unfortunately, in some Latin American countries water quality monitoring programs are not sustainable in terms of recording historical data or environmentally representative sites wasting time, money and valuable information. In this study, multivariate statistical techniques, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), are applied for identifying the most significant monitoring sites as well as critical water quality parameters in the monitoring network of the Jequetepeque River basin, in northern Peru. The Jequetepeque River basin, like others in Peru, shows socio-environmental conflicts due to economical activities developed in this area. Water pollution by trace elements in the upper part of the basin is mainly related with mining activity, and agricultural land lost due to salinization is caused by the extensive use of groundwater in the lower part of the basin. Since the 1980s, the water quality in the basin has been non-continuously assessed by public and private organizations, and recently the National Water Authority had established permanent water quality networks in 45 basins in Peru. Despite many countries use multivariate statistical techniques for assessing water quality monitoring networks, those instruments have never been applied for that purpose in Peru. For this reason, the main contribution of this study is to demonstrate that application of the multivariate statistical techniques could serve as an instrument that allows the optimization of monitoring networks using least number of monitoring sites as well as the most significant water quality parameters, which would reduce costs concerns and improve the water quality management in Peru. Main socio-economical activities developed and the principal stakeholders related to the water management in the basin are also identified. Finally, water quality management programs will also be discussed in terms of their efficiency and sustainability.

Keywords: PCA, HCA, Jequetepeque, multivariate statistical

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Authors: Jaskaran Singh Sidhu

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Aim: The purpose of this study is to find the relationship between wellness among sportsmen and non sportsmen. Methodology: The present study is an experimental study for 80 senior secondary volleyball players of 16-19 years of age from Ludhiana District of Punjab (India), and 80 non-sportsperson were taken from senior secondary school of Ludhiana district. The sample for this study was taken through a random sampling technique. Tools: A five point scale havinf 50 items was used to acess the wellness Statistical Analysis: To find out the relationship among the variables exists or not, a t-test was used to test the significance of the difference between the means. Statistics for each characteristic were calculated; Mean, Standard deviation, Standard error of Mean. Data were analyzed using SPSS (statistical package for the social sciences). Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Results: Substantial deviations were noted at p<0.5 in the totality of wellness. Sportsmen show significant differences exist at p<0.5 in three parameters of wellness i.e., physical wellness, mental wellness, and social wellness. In spiritual and emotional wellness attributes, non-sportsmen shows significant difference at p<0.5. Conclusion: From the data interpretation it reflects that overall wellness can be improved by participation in sports. It further noted in study that participation in sports promote the attributes of wellness i.e., physical wellness, mental wellness, emotional wellness and social wellness.

Keywords: physical, mental, social, emotional, wellness, spiritual

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Authors: Qasim Kriri, Harsh B. Desai

Abstract:

Water supply and sanitation in Saudi Arabia is portrayed by difficulties and accomplishments. One of the fundamental difficulties is water shortage. With a specific end goal to beat water shortage, significant ventures have been attempted in sea water desalination, water circulation, sewerage, and wastewater treatment. The motivation behind Statistical Process Control (SPC) is to decide whether the execution of a procedure is keeping up an acceptable quality level [AQL]. SPC is an analytical decision-making method. A fundamental apparatus in the SPC is the Control Charts, which follow the inconstancy in the estimations of the item quality attributes. By utilizing the suitable outline, administration can decide whether changes should be made with a specific end goal to keep the procedure in charge. The two most important quality factors in the distilled water which were taken into consideration were pH (Potential of Hydrogen) and TDS (Total Dissolved Solids). There were three stages at which the quality checks were done. The stages were as follows: (1) Water at the source, (2) water after chemical treatment & (3) water which is sent for packing. The upper specification limit, central limit and lower specification limit are taken as per Saudi water standards. The procedure capacity to accomplish the particulars set for the quality attributes of Berain water Factory chose to be focused by the proposed SPC system.

Keywords: acceptable quality level, statistical quality control, control charts, process charts

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Vassilios Moussas, Dimos N. Pantazis, Panagioths Stratakis

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present the optimization methodology developed in the frame of a Coastal Transport Information System. The system will be used for the effective design of coastal transportation lines and incorporates subsystems that implement models, tools and techniques that may support the design of improved networks. The role of the optimization and decision subsystem is to provide the user with better and optimal scenarios that will best fulfill any constrains, goals or requirements posed. The complexity of the problem and the large number of parameters and objectives involved led to the adoption of an evolutionary method (Genetic Algorithms). The problem model and the subsystem structure are presented in detail, and, its support for simulation is also discussed.

Keywords: coastal transport, modeling, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 491

Authors: M. Ziółkowska, J. T. Duda, J. Milewska-Duda

Abstract:

This paper describes an approach to the adsorption phenomena modeling aimed at specifying the adsorption mechanisms on localized or nonlocalized adsorbent sites, when applied to the nanocarbons. The concept comes from the fundamental thermodynamic description of adsorption equilibrium and is based on numerical calculations of the hydrogen adsorbed particles volume on the surface of selected nanocarbons: single-walled nanotube and nanocone. This approach enables to obtain information on adsorption mechanism and then as a consequence to take appropriate mathematical adsorption model, thus allowing for a more reliable identification of the material porous structure. Theoretical basis of the approach is discussed and newly derived results of the numerical calculations are presented for the selected nanocarbons.

Keywords: adsorption, mathematical modeling, nanocarbons, numerical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 258