Search results for: rank estimates

Authors: Sintija Miļuna, Ričards Melderis, Loreta Briuka, Dagnija Rostoka, Ingus Skadiņš, Juta Kroiča

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Objectives Smokeless tobacco products in Latvia become more available and favorable to young adults, especially students and athletes like hockey and floorball players. The aim of the research was to detect visual mucosal changes in the oral cavity in smokeless tobacco users and to evaluate pro - inflammatory and anti - inflammatory cytokine (IL-6, IL-1, IL-8, TNF Alpha) levels in saliva from smokeless tobacco users. Methods A smokeless tobacco group (n=10) and a control group (non-tobacco users) (n=10) were intraorally examined for oral lesions and 5 ml of saliva were collected. Saliva was analysed for Il-6, IL-1, Il-8, TNF Alpha using ELISA Sigma-Aldrich. For statistical analysis IBM Statistics 27 was used (Mann - Whitney U test, Spearman’s Rank Correlation coefficient). This research was approved by the Ethics Committee of Rīga Stradiņš University No.22/28.01.2016. This research has been developed with financing from the European Social Fund and Latvian state budget within the project no. 8.2.2.0/20/I/004 “Support for involving doctoral students in scientific research and studies” at Rīga Stradiņš University. Results IL-1, IL-6, IL-8, TNF Alpha levels were higher in the smokeless tobacco group (IL-1 83.34 pg/ml vs. 74.26 pg/ml; IL-6 195.10 pg/ml vs. 6.16 pg/ml; IL-8 736.34 pg/ml vs. 285.26 pg/ml; TNF Alpha 489.27 pg/ml vs. 200.9 pg/ml), but statistically there is no difference between control group and smokeless tobacco group (IL1 p=0.190, IL6 p=0.052, IL8 p=0.165, TNF alpha p=0.089). There was statistical correlation between IL1 and IL6 (p=0.023), IL6 and TNF alpha (p=0.028), IL8 and IL6 (p=0.005). Conclusions White localized lesions were detected in places where smokeless tobacco users placed sachets. There is a statistical correlation between IL6 and IL1 levels, IL6 and TNF alpha levels, IL8 and IL6 levels in saliva. There are no differences in the inflammatory cytokine levels between control group and smokeless tobacco group.

Keywords: smokeless tobacco, Snus, inflammatory biomarkers, oral lesions, oral pathology

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Authors: Ben-Caleb Egbide, Iyoha Francis, Egharevba Mathew, Oduntan Emmanuel

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The prosperity of any nation is determined not just by the availability of resources, but also by the discipline exercised in the management of those resources. This paper examines the functional association between adherence to budgetary estimates or budget discipline (BDISC) and national prosperity proxied by Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) and Relative Poverty Index (RPI)/Human Development Index (HDI). Adopting a longitudinal retrospective research strategy, time series data relating to both the endogenous and exogenous variables were extracted from official government publications for 36 years’ (1980-2015 in the case of RGDP and RPI), and for 26 years (1990-2015 in the case of HDI). Ordinary Least Square (OLS), as well as cointegration regressions, were employed to gauge both the short term and long term impact of BDISC on RPI/HDI and RGDP. The results indicated that BDISC is directly related with RGDP but indirectly related with RPI. The implication is that while adherence to budgetary estimate can enhance economic growth, it has the capacity to slow down the rate of poverty in the long run. The paper, therefore, recommend stricter adherence to budgets as a way out of economic under performance in Nigeria and engender the process of promoting human development and national prosperity.

Keywords: budget discipline, human development index, national prosperity, Nigeria

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Authors: Joseph Thomas Eghwerido, Julian I. Mbegbu

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In modelling environment processes, we apply multidisciplinary knowledge to explain, explore and predict the Earth's response to natural human-induced environmental changes. Thus, the analysis of spatial-time ecological and environmental studies, the spatial parameters of interest are always heterogeneous. This often negates the assumption of stationarity. Hence, the dispersion of the transportation of atmospheric pollutants, landscape or topographic effect, weather patterns depends on a good estimate of spatial covariance. The generalized linear mixed model, although linear in the expected value parameters, its likelihood varies nonlinearly as a function of the covariance parameters. As a consequence, computing estimates for a linear mixed model requires the iterative solution of a system of simultaneous nonlinear equations. In other to predict the variables at unsampled locations, we need to know the estimate of the present sampled variables. The geostatistical methods for solving this spatial problem assume covariance stationarity (locally defined covariance) and uniform in space; which is not apparently valid because spatial processes often exhibit nonstationary covariance. Hence, they have globally defined covariance. We shall consider different existing methods of solutions of spatial covariance of a space-time processes at unsampled locations. This stationary covariance changes with locations for multiple time set with some asymptotic properties.

Keywords: parametric, nonstationary, Kernel, Kriging

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Authors: Mohammad Hossein Harirchian, Siavash Babaie, Nika keshtkaran, Sama Bitarafan

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Background: Fatigue is a common complaint of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, adversely affecting their quality of life. There is a lot of evidence showing that Carnitine deficiency is linked to fatigue development and severity in some conditions. This study aimed to compare the levels of Free L-Carnitine (FLC) between MS patients and healthy people and evaluate its association with the severity of fatigue. Methods: This case-control study included 30 patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) in 2 sex-matched equal-number groups according to the presence or absence of fatigue and 30 sex-matched healthy people in the control group. In addition, between two patient groups, we compared Serum level of FLC between the patient and healthy group. Fatigue was scored using two valid questionnaires of fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) and Modified Fatigue Impact Scale (MFIS). In addition, association between Serum level of FLC and fatigue severity was evaluated in MS patients. Results: There was no significant difference in serum levels of FLC between MS patients and healthy people. The patients with fatigue had a significantly lower FLC (mg/dl) value than patients without fatigue (22.53 ± 15.84 vs. 75.36 ± 51.98, P < 0.001). The mean value of FSS and MFIS in patients with fatigue were 48.80±8.55 and 62.87 ± 13.63, respectively, which was nearly two-fold higher than group without fatigue (P < 0.001). There was a negative correlation between the serum level of FLC and fatigue severity scales (Spearman rank correlation= 0.76, P < 0.001). Conclusion: We showed healthy people and MS patients were not different in levels of FLC. In addition, patients with lower serum levels of FLC might experience more severe fatigue. Therefore, this could clarify that supplementation with L-Carnitine might be considered as a complementary treatment for MS-related fatigue.

Keywords: fatigue, multiple sclerosis, L-carnitine, modified fatigue impact scale

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Authors: Soundarya Lahari Vedula

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Dalit women make up a significant portion of the Indian population. However, they are victims of age old discrimination. This paper presents a brief background of the Indian caste system which is a hierarchical division placing Dalits at the lowest rank. Dalits are forced to perform menial and harsh tasks. They often face social ostracism. The situation of Dalit women is of unique significance as they face triple discrimination due to their caste, gender, and class. Dalit women are strictly withheld by the rigid boundaries of the caste system. They are discriminated at every stage of their life and are denied access to public places, education and healthcare facilities among others. They face the worst forms of sexual violence. In spite of legislations and international conventions in place, their plight is not adequately addressed. This paper discusses, in brief, the legal mechanism in place to prohibit untouchability. Furthermore, this paper details on the specific human rights violations faced by Dalit women in the social, economic and political spheres. The violations range from discrimination in public places, denial of education and health services, sexual exploitation and barriers to political representation. Finally, this paper identifies certain lacunae in the existing Indian statutes and broadens on the measures to be taken to improve the situation of Dalit women. This paper offers some recommendations to address the plight of Dalit women such as amendments to the existing statutes, effective implementation of legal mechanisms and a more meaningful interpretation of the international conventions.

Keywords: Dalit, caste, class, discrimination, equality

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Authors: Himayatullah Khan

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This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

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Authors: Mia I. Allen, Bernard N. Johnson, Gagan Deep, Yixin Su, Sangeeta Singth, Ashish Kumar, , Michael A. Nader

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With no FDA-approved treatments for cocaine use disorders (CUD), research has focused on the behavioral and neuropharmacological effects of cocaine in animal models, with the goal of identifying novel interventions. While the majority of people with CUD also use tobacco/nicotine, the majority of preclinical cocaine research does not include the co-use of nicotine. The present study examined nicotine and cocaine co-use under several conditions of intravenous drug self-administration in monkeys. In Experiment 1, male rhesus monkeys (N=3) self-administered cocaine (0.001-0.1 mg/kg/injection) alone and cocaine+nicotine (0.01-0.03 mg/kg/injection) under a progressive-ratio schedule of reinforcement. When nicotine was added to cocaine, there was a significant leftward shift and significant increase in peak break point. In Experiment 2, socially housed female and male cynomolgus monkeys (N=14) self-administered cocaine under a concurrent drug-vs-food choice schedule. Combining nicotine significantly decreased cocaine choice ED50 values (i.e., shifted the cocaine dose-response curve to the left) in females but not in males. There was no evidence of social rank differences. In delay discounting studies, the co-use of nicotine and cocaine required significantly larger delays to the preferred drug reinforcer to reallocate choice compared with cocaine alone. Overall, these results suggest drug interactions of nicotine and cocaine co-use is not simply a function of potency but rather a fundamentally distinctive condition that should be utilized to better understand the neuropharmacology of CUD and the evaluation of potential treatments.

Keywords: polydrug use, animal models, nonhuman primates, behavioral pharmacology, drug self-administration

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Authors: Narendra Kumar

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In developing countries, the majority of people with diabetes are in the age range of 45-64 years and more women than men. As in many areas of the India, non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus has become major problems. Now it is spreading among the middle class and poor at an alarming stage in India and Kerala is turning to be the world capital of diabetes. This study uses two round NSS data from the ‘National Sample Survey Organization, India’ to investigate the predictors of diabetes in Kerala. The overall estimates for diabetes prevalence among elderly show that higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. Education of respondent has been found a significant characteristics, further respondent working status, caste/tribe have substantial impact on diabetes in Kerala. The disease is more common for people who are mostly physically inactive. This whole picture is very much prominent in the urban areas compared with the rural ones. Not working elderly have significantly higher with diabetes than for those working in elderly. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with diabetes prevalence. For men and women, the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension were significantly higher in the urban population while smoking, smokeless tobacco consumption was more prevalent in the rural population. High alcohol intake increases diabetes risk among elderly. Finally these findings specified that an increase improve health care services and changing life style of elderly which should in turn raise diabetes patient survival and should decrease comorbidities due to diabetes in Kerala.

Keywords: elderly, diabetes, prevalence, Kerala

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Authors: Lal Hussain, Wajid Aziz, Imtiaz Ahmed Awan, Sharjeel Saeed

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Multiscale entropy analysis (MSE) is a useful technique recently developed to quantify the dynamics of physiological signals at different time scales. This study is aimed at investigating the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals to analyze the background activity of alcoholic and control subjects by inspecting various coarse-grained sequences formed at different time scales. EEG recordings of alcoholic and control subjects were taken from the publically available machine learning repository of University of California (UCI) acquired using 64 electrodes. The MSE analysis was performed on the EEG data acquired from all the electrodes of alcoholic and control subjects. Mann-Whitney rank test was used to find significant differences between the groups and result were considered statistically significant for p-values<0.05. The area under receiver operator curve was computed to find the degree separation between the groups. The mean ranks of MSE values at all the times scales for all electrodes were higher control subject as compared to alcoholic subjects. Higher mean ranks represent higher complexity and vice versa. The finding indicated that EEG signals acquired through electrodes C3, C4, F3, F7, F8, O1, O2, P3, T7 showed significant differences between alcoholic and control subjects at time scales 1 to 5. Moreover, all electrodes exhibit significance level at different time scales. Likewise, the highest accuracy and separation was obtained at the central region (C3 and C4), front polar regions (P3, O1, F3, F7, F8 and T8) while other electrodes such asFp1, Fp2, P4 and F4 shows no significant results.

Keywords: electroencephalogram (EEG), multiscale sample entropy (MSE), Mann-Whitney test (MMT), Receiver Operator Curve (ROC), complexity analysis

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Nastaran Hajiheydari, Mohammad Soltani Delgosha

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Vendor (supplier) selection is a group decision-making (GDM) process, in which, based on some predetermined criteria, the experts’ preferences are provided in order to rank and choose the most desirable suppliers. In the real business environment, our attitudes or our choices would be made in an uncertain and indecisive situation could not be expressed in a crisp framework. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) could handle such situations in the best way. VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. This method, which is used to determine the compromised feasible solution with respect to the conflicting criteria, introduces a multi-criteria ranking index based on the particular measure of 'closeness' to the 'ideal solution'. Until now, there has been a little investigation of VIKOR with IFS, therefore we extended the intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) VIKOR to solve vendor selection problem under IF GDM environment. The present study intends to develop an IF VIKOR method in a GDM situation. Therefore, a model is presented to calculate the criterion weights based on entropy measure. Then, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted geometric (IFWG) operator utilized to obtain the total decision matrix. In the next stage, an approach based on the positive idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (PIIFN) and negative idle intuitionistic fuzzy number (NIIFN) was developed. Finally, the application of the proposed method to solve a vendor selection problem illustrated.

Keywords: group decision making, intuitionistic fuzzy set, intuitionistic fuzzy entropy measure, vendor selection, VIKOR

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Farzami Pour

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Determination of genetic variation is useful for plant breeding and hence production of more efficient plant species under different conditions, like drought stress. In this study, a sample of 28 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of wheat developed from the cross of Norstar and Zagross varieties, together with their parents, were evaluated for two years (2010-2012) under normal and water stress conditions using split plot design with three replications. Main plots included two irrigation treatments of 70 and 140 mm evaporation from Class A pan and sub-plots consisted of 30 genotypes. The effect of genotypes and interaction of genotypes with years and water regimes were significant for all characters. Significant genotypic effect implies the existence of genetic variation among the lines under study. Heritability estimates were high for 1000 grain weight (0.87). Biomass and grain yield showed the lowest heritability values (0.42 and 0.50, respectively). Highest genotypic and phenotypic coefficients of variation (GCV and PCV) belonged to harvest index. Moderate genetic advance for most of the traits suggested the feasibility of selection among the RILs under investigation. Some RILs were higher yielding than either parent at both environments.

Keywords: wheat, genetic gain, heritability, recombinant inbred lines

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Authors: Carlson Murray, Ali Lazrak

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Robust experimental evidence of systematic violations of expected utility (EU) establishes that individuals facing risk overweight utility from low probability gains and losses when making choices. These findings motivated development of models of preferences with probability weighting functions, such as rank dependent utility (RDU). We solve for the optimal investing strategy of an RDU investor in a dynamic binomial setting from which we derive implications for investing behavior. We show that relative to EU investors with constant relative risk aversion, commonly measured probability weighting functions produce optimal RDU terminal wealth with significant downside protection and upside exposure. We additionally find that in contrast to EU investors, RDU investors optimally choose a portfolio that contains fair bets that provide payo↵s that can be interpreted as lottery outcomes or exposure to idiosyncratic returns. In a calibrated version of the model, we calculate that RDU investors would be willing to pay 5% of their initial wealth for the freedom to trade away from an optimal EU wealth allocation. The dynamic trading strategy that supports the optimal wealth allocation implies portfolio weights that are independent of initial wealth but requires higher risky share after good stock return histories. Optimal trading also implies the possibility of non-participation when historical returns are poor. Our model fills a gap in the literature by providing new quantitative and qualitative predictions that can be tested experimentally or using data on household wealth and portfolio choice.

Keywords: behavioral finance, probability weighting, portfolio choice

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Authors: Raghunath Arnab

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The two-phase sampling which is also known as double sampling was introduced in 1938. In two-phase sampling, samples are selected in phases. In the first phase, a relatively large sample of size is selected by some suitable sampling design and only information on the auxiliary variable is collected. During the second phase, a sample of size is selected either from, the sample selected in the first phase or from the entire population by using a suitable sampling design and information regarding the study and auxiliary variable is collected. Evidently, two phase sampling is useful if the auxiliary information is relatively easy and cheaper to collect than the study variable as well as if the strength of the relationship between the variables and is high. If the sample is selected in more than two phases, the resulting sampling design is called a multi-phase sampling. In this article we will consider how one can use data collected at the first phase sampling at the stages of estimation of the parameter, stratification, selection of sample and their combinations in the second phase in a unified setup applicable to any sampling design and wider classes of estimators. The problem of the estimation of variance will also be considered. The variance of estimator is essential for estimating precision of the survey estimates, calculation of confidence intervals, determination of the optimal sample sizes and for testing of hypotheses amongst others. Although, the variance is a non-negative quantity but its estimators may not be non-negative. If the estimator of variance is negative, then it cannot be used for estimation of confidence intervals, testing of hypothesis or measure of sampling error. The non-negativity properties of the variance estimators will also be studied in details.

Keywords: auxiliary information, two-phase sampling, varying probability sampling, unbiased estimators

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Atef Alaaeddine Sarraj, Brendan Jackman, Frank Walsh

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Tomorrow’s car will be more automated and increasingly connected. Innovative and intuitive interfaces are essential to accompany this functional enrichment. For that, today the automotive companies are competing to offer an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) which will be able to provide enhanced navigation, collision avoidance, intersection support and lane keeping. These vision-based functions require an accurately calibrated camera. To achieve such differentiation in ADAS requires sophisticated sensors and efficient algorithms. This paper explores the different calibration methods applicable to vehicle-mounted fish-eye cameras with arbitrary fields of view and defines the first steps towards a self-calibration method that adequately addresses ADAS requirements. In particular, we present a self-calibration method after comparing different camera calibration algorithms in the context of ADAS requirements. Our method gathers data from unknown scenes while the car is moving, estimates the camera intrinsic and extrinsic parameters and corrects the wide-angle distortion. Our solution enables continuous and real-time detection of objects, pedestrians, road markings and other cars. In contrast, other camera calibration algorithms for ADAS need pre-calibration, while the presented method calibrates the camera without prior knowledge of the scene and in real-time.

Keywords: advanced driver assistance system (ADAS), fish-eye, real-time, self-calibration

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Authors: Deepa Shokeen, Bani Tamber Aeri

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Non-communicable diseases in general and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in particular are a big cause of concern worldwide especially in fast growing economy like India. CVD is one of the leading causes of deaths in India. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease are now significant in all populations. At least one-third of all CVD is attributable to five risk factors: tobacco use, alcohol use, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and obesity. Methods: This article aspires to collate data gathered by relevant studies conducted after year 2000 and provide an overview of the prevalence of CVD in India and worldwide. Results: Studies show an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in India as compared to other developing and developed countries with recent trends showing incidence in younger age group. It is seen to affect almost all sections of the society from young to old and most affluent to least affluent. High blood pressure, high cholesterol, tobacco and alcohol use, as well as low vegetable and fruit intake, already figure among the top risk factors. Conclusion: The prevalence of risk factors associated with CVD has increased and will keep on increasing in India as indicated by studies in the last decade and as predicted by the projections for future estimates. Some major risks are modifiable in that they can be prevented, treated, and controlled. There are considerable health benefits at all ages, for both men and women, in stopping smoking, reducing cholesterol and blood pressure, eating a healthy diet and increasing physical activity.

Keywords: prevalence, cardiovascular disease, India, risk factors

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Authors: Bernhard Widhalm, Cornelia Rieder-Gradinger, Thomas Ters, Ewald Srebotnik, Thomas Kuncinger

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Terpenes are natural components in softwoods and rank among the most frequently emitted volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the wood-processing industry. In this study, the main focus was on α- and β-pinene as well as Δ3-carene, which are the major terpenes in softwoods. To lower the total emission level of wood composites, defined terpene degrading microorganisms were applied to basic raw materials (e.g. pine wood particles and strands) in an optimised and industry-compatible testing procedure. In preliminary laboratory tests, bacterial species suitable for the utilisation of α-pinene as single carbon source in liquid culture were selected and then subjected to wood material inoculation. The two species Pseudomonas putida and Pseudomonas fluorescens were inoculated onto wood particles and strands and incubated at room temperature. Applying specific pre-cultivation and daily ventilation of the samples enabled a reduction of incubation time from six days to one day. SPME measurements and subsequent GC-MS analysis indicated a complete absence of α- and β-pinene emissions after 24 hours from pine wood particles. When using pine wood strands rather than particles, bacterial treatment resulted in a reduction of α- and β-pinene by 50%, while Δ3-carene emissions were reduced by 30% in comparison to untreated strands. Other terpenes were also reduced in the course of the microbial treatment. The method developed here appears to be feasible for industrial application. However, growth parameters such as time and temperature as well as the technical implementation of the inoculation step will have to be adapted for the production process.

Keywords: GC-MS, pseudomonas, SPME, terpenes

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Authors: Pooja Rawat, Rakhi Tyagi

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Globally, almost 3 billion people rely on biomass (wood, charcoal, dung and crop residues) and coal as their primary source of domestic energy. Cooking and heating with solid fuels on open fire give rise to major pollutants. Women are primarily affected by these pollutants as they spend most of their time in the house. The WHO World Health Report 2002 estimates that indoor air pollution (IAP) is responsible for 2.7% of the loss of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) worldwide and 3.7% in high mortality developing countries. Indoor air pollution has the potential to not only impact health, but also impact the general economic well-being of the household. Exposure to high level of household pollution lead to acute and chronic respiratory conditions (e.g.: pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer and cataract). There has been many strategies for reducing IAP like subsidize cleaner fuel technologies, for example use of kerosene rather than traditional biomass fuels. Another example is development, promotion of 'improved cooking stoves'. India, likely ranks second- distributing over 12 million improved stoves in the first seven years of a national program to develop. IAP should be reduced by understanding the welfare effects of reducing IAP within households and to understanding the most cost effective way to reduce it.

Keywords: open fire, indoor pollution, lung diseases, indoor air pollution

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

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With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

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Authors: Salahud Din, Saima Masood, Hafsa Zaneb, Saima Ashraf, Imad Khan

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The objective of this study was 1) to measure osteometric parameters of the long bones of the adult Chinkara to obtain baseline data 2) to study sexual dimorphism in the adult Chinkara through osteometry and 3) to estimate body weight from the measurements of greatest length and shaft of the long bones. For this purpose, after taking body measurements of adult Chinkara after mortality, the carcass of adult Chinkara of known sex and age were buried in the locality of the Manglot Wildlife Park and Ungulate Breeding Centre, Nizampur, Pakistan; after a specific period of time, the bones were unearthed. Various osteometric parameters of the humerus, radius, metacarpus, femur, tibia and metatarsal were measured through the digital calliper. Statistically significant (P < 0.05), differences in some of the osteometrical parameters between male and female adult Chinkara were observed. Sexual dimorphism exit between the long bones of male and female adult Chinkara. In both male and female Chinkara value obtained for the estimated body weight from humeral, metacarpal and metatarsal measurements were near to the actual body weight of the adult Chinkara. In conclusion, the present study estimates preliminary data on long bones osteometrics and suggests that the morphometric details of the male and female adult Chinkara have differed morphometrically from each other.

Keywords: body mass measurements, Chinkara, long bones, morphometric, sexual dimorphism

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Authors: Richa Grover, Rahul Grover, V. Balaji Rao, Kavish Kejriwal

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Selection of suppliers is a crucial problem in the supply chain management. On top of that, sustainable supplier selection is the biggest challenge for the organizations. Environment protection and social problems have been of concern to society in recent years, and the traditional supplier selection does not consider about this factor; therefore, this research work focuses on introducing sustainable criteria into the structure of supplier selection criteria. Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM) is the management and administration of material, information, and money flows, as well as coordination among business along the supply chain. All three dimensions - economic, environmental, and social - of sustainable development needs to be taken care of. Purpose of this research is to maximize supply chain profitability, maximize social wellbeing of supply chain and minimize environmental impacts. Problem statement is selection of suppliers in a sustainable supply chain network by ranking the suppliers against sustainable criteria identified. The aim of this research is twofold: To find out what are the sustainable parameters that can be applied to the supply chain, and to determine how these parameters can effectively be used in supplier selection. Multicriteria decision making tools will be used to rank both criteria and suppliers. AHP Analysis will be used to find out ratings for the criteria identified. It is a technique used for efficient decision making. TOPSIS will be used to find out rating for suppliers and then ranking them. TOPSIS is a MCDM problem solving method which is based on the principle that the chosen option should have the maximum distance from the negative ideal solution (NIS) and the minimum distance from the ideal solution.

Keywords: sustainable supply chain management, sustainable criteria, MCDM tools, AHP analysis, TOPSIS method

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Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

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Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

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Authors: Kenji Gwee

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In Singapore, the death penalty remains in active use for murder and drug trafficking of controlled drugs such as heroin. As such, the psychological assessment of defendants can often be of high stakes. The Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) is employed by government psychologists to determine the degree of effort invested by defendants, which in turn inform on the veracity of overall psychological findings that can invariably determine the life and death of defendants. The purpose of this study was to find out if defendants facing the death penalty were more likely to invest less effort during psychological assessment (to fake bad in hopes of escaping the death sentence) compared to defendants facing lesser penalties. An archival search of all forensic cases assessed in 2012-2013 by Singapore’s designated forensic psychiatric facility yielded 186 defendants’ TOMM scores. Offence severity, coded into 6 rank-ordered categories, was analyzed in a one-way ANOVA with TOMM score as the dependent variable. There was a statistically significant difference (F(5,87) = 2.473, p = 0.038). A Tukey post-hoc test with Bonferroni correction revealed that defendants facing lower charges (Theft, shoplifting, criminal breach of trust) invested less test-taking effort (TOMM = 37.4±12.3, p = 0.033) compared to those facing the death penalty (TOMM = 46.2±8.1). The surprising finding that those facing death penalties actually invested more test taking effort than those facing relatively minor charges could be due to higher levels of cooperation when faced with death. Alternatively, other legal avenues to escape the death sentence may have been preferred over the mitigatory chance of a psychiatric defence.

Keywords: capital sentencing, offence severity, Singapore, Test of Memory Malingering

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Olanrewaju Rotimi Bodede, Akinlabi Oyetunji

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Modeling the dry compressive strength of sodium silicate bonded kaolin refractory bricks was studied. The materials used for this research work included refractory clay obtained from Ijero-Ekiti kaolin deposit on coordinates 7º 49´N and 5º 5´E, sodium silicate obtained from the open market in Lagos on coordinates 6°27′11″N 3°23′45″E all in the South Western part of Nigeria. The mineralogical composition of the kaolin clay was determined using the Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (ED-XRF). The clay samples were crushed and sieved using the laboratory pulveriser, ball mill and sieve shaker respectively to obtain 100 μm diameter particles. Manual pipe extruder of dimension 30 mm diameter by 43.30 mm height was used to prepare the samples with varying percentage volume of sodium silicate 5 %, 7.5 % 10 %, 12.5 %, 15 %, 17.5 %, 20% and 22.5 % while kaolin and water were kept at 50 % and 5 % respectively for the comprehensive test. The samples were left to dry in the open laboratory atmosphere for 24 hours to remove moisture. The samples were then were fired in an electrically powered muffle furnace. Firing was done at the following temperatures; 700ºC, 750ºC, 800ºC, 850ºC, 900ºC, 950ºC, 1000ºC and 1100ºC. Compressive strength test was carried out on the dried samples using a Testometric Universal Testing Machine (TUTM) equipped with a computer and printer, optimum compression of 4.41 kN/mm2 was obtained at 12.5 % sodium silicate; the experimental results were modeled with MATLAB and Origin packages using polynomial regression equations that predicted the estimated values for dry compressive strength and later validated with Pearson’s rank correlation coefficient, thereby obtaining a very high positive correlation value of 0.97.

Keywords: dry compressive strength, kaolin, modeling, sodium silicate

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Authors: Rebecca Heron, Julie Karsten, Lena Schweikert

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Adverse consequences of stigma towards pedophilia can, among other things, increase dynamic risk factors for sexual offending. Decreasing stigma, therefore, is a plausible approach in the attempt to prevent child sexual abuse. Stigma research suggests that providing direct contact to a stigmatized individual is the most efficient way of reducing stigma. The present study involved an educational intervention, followed by direct contact to a pedophile, to maximize effectiveness. It aimed at finding out whether a dichotomous anti-stigma intervention can change psychology students' attitudes towards pedophiles regarding perceived dangerousness, intentionality, deviance, and punitive attitudes. In a one sample pre-post design, 162 students of the University of Groningen attended a lecture about pedophilia, which was held by a psychology master’s student. Participants learned about child sex offending and pedophilia in addition to the importance of distinguishing between pedophiles and child sex offenders (CSOs). The guest lecturer Gabriel, shared his experiences about growing up, coping, and living with pedophilia. Results of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test revealed significantly diminished negative attitudes towards pedophiles after the intervention. Students perceived pedophiles as less dangerous, having less intent, and being less psychologically deviant. Additionally, students' punitive attitudes towards pedophiles diminished significantly. Also, a thematic analysis revealed that students were highly interested in the topic of pedophilia and greatly appreciative of Gabriel sharing his story. This study was the first to provide direct contact with a pedophile within an anti-stigma intervention.

Keywords: pedophilia, anti-stigma intervention, punitive attitudes, attitude change

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Authors: Ghodbane Azeddine, Saad Maarouf, Boland Jean-Francois, Thibeault Claude

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This paper proposes a new design of an active fault-tolerant flight control system against abrupt actuator faults. This overall system combines a multiple time scale sliding mode controller for fault compensation and a geometric approach for fault detection and diagnosis. The proposed control system is able to accommodate several kinds of partial and total actuator failures, by using available healthy redundancy actuators. The overall system first estimates the correct fault information using the geometric approach. Then, and based on that, a new reconfigurable control law is designed based on the multiple time scale sliding mode technique for on-line compensating the effect of such faults. This approach takes advantages of the fact that there are significant difference between the time scales of aircraft states that have a slow dynamics and those that have a fast dynamics. The closed-loop stability of the overall system is proved using Lyapunov technique. A case study of the non-linear model of the F16 fighter, subject to the rudder total loss of control confirms the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: actuator faults, fault detection and diagnosis, fault tolerant flight control, sliding mode control, multiple time scale approximation, geometric approach for fault reconstruction, lyapunov stability

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Authors: Chinmay V. Deshpande

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Purpose: To assess the efficiency of visual functions and visual skills in strabismic & anisometropic amblyopes and to assess visual acuity and contrast sensitivity in anisometropic amblyopes with spectacles & contact lenses. Method: In a prospective clinical study, 32 children ageing from 5 to 15 years presenting with amblyopia in a pediatric department of Shri Ganapati Netralaya Jalna, India, were assessed for a period of three & half months. Visual acuity was measured with Snellen’s and Bailey-Lovie log MAR charts whereas contrast sensitivity was measured with Pelli-Robson chart with spectacles and contact lenses. Saccadic movements were assessed with SCCO scoring criteria and accommodative facility was checked with ±1.50 DS flippers. Stereopsis was assessed with TNO test. Results: By using Wilcoxon sign rank test p-value < 0.05 (< 0.001), the mean linear visual acuity was 0.29 (≈ 6/21) and mean single optotype visual acuity found to be 0.36 (≈ 6/18). Mean visual acuity of 0.27(≈ 6/21) with spectacles improved to 0.33 (≈ 6/18) with contact lenses in amblyopic eyes. The mean Log MAR visual acuity with spectacles and contact lens were found to be 0.602( ≈6/24) and 0.531(≈ 6/21) respectively. The contrast threshold out of 20 amblyopic eyes shows that mean contrast threshold changed in 9 patients from spectacles 0.27 to contact lens 0.19 respectively. The mean accommodative facility assessed was 5.31(± 2.37). 24 subjects (75%) revealed marked saccadic defects on the test applied. 78% subjects didn’t show even gross stereoscopic ability on TNO test. Conclusion: This study supports the facts about amblyopia and associated deficits in visual skills which are claimed in previous studies. In addition, anisometropic amblyopia can be managed better with contact lenses.

Keywords: strabismus, anisometropia, amblyopia, contrast sensitivity, saccades, stereopsis

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Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez

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In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation

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