Search results for: wind speed prediction
Commenced in January 2007
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Paper Count: 5689

Search results for: wind speed prediction

229 Experimental Proof of Concept for Piezoelectric Flow Harvesting for In-Pipe Metering Systems

Authors: Sherif Keddis, Rafik Mitry, Norbert Schwesinger

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Intelligent networking of devices has rapidly been gaining importance over the past years and with recent advances in the fields of microcontrollers, integrated circuits and wireless communication, low power applications have emerged, enabling this trend even more. Connected devices provide a much larger database thus enabling highly intelligent and accurate systems. Ensuring safe drinking water is one of the fields that require constant monitoring and can benefit from an increased accuracy. Monitoring is mainly achieved either through complex measures, such as collecting samples from the points of use, or through metering systems typically distant to the points of use which deliver less accurate assessments of the quality of water. Constant metering near the points of use is complicated due to their inaccessibility; e.g. buried water pipes, locked spaces, which makes system maintenance extremely difficult and often unviable. The research presented here attempts to overcome this challenge by providing these systems with enough energy through a flow harvester inside the pipe thus eliminating the maintenance requirements in terms of battery replacements or containment of leakage resulting from wiring such systems. The proposed flow harvester exploits the piezoelectric properties of polyvinylidene difluoride (PVDF) films to convert turbulence induced oscillations into electrical energy. It is intended to be used in standard water pipes with diameters between 0.5 and 1 inch. The working principle of the harvester uses a ring shaped bluff body inside the pipe to induce pressure fluctuations. Additionally the bluff body houses electronic components such as storage, circuitry and RF-unit. Placing the piezoelectric films downstream of that bluff body causes their oscillation which generates electrical charge. The PVDF-film is placed as a multilayered wrap fixed to the pipe wall leaving the top part to oscillate freely inside the flow. The warp, which allows for a larger active, consists of two layers of 30µm thick and 12mm wide PVDF layered alternately with two centered 6µm thick and 8mm wide aluminum foil electrodes. The length of the layers depends on the number of windings and is part of the investigation. Sealing the harvester against liquid penetration is achieved by wrapping it in a ring-shaped LDPE-film and welding the open ends. The fabrication of the PVDF-wraps is done by hand. After validating the working principle using a wind tunnel, experiments have been conducted in water, placing the harvester inside a 1 inch pipe at water velocities of 0.74m/s. To find a suitable placement of the wrap inside the pipe, two forms of fixation were compared regarding their power output. Further investigations regarding the number of windings required for efficient transduction were made. Best results were achieved using a wrap with 3 windings of the active layers which delivers a constant power output of 0.53µW at a 2.3MΩ load and an effective voltage of 1.1V. Considering the extremely low power requirements of sensor applications, these initial results are promising. For further investigations and optimization, machine designs are currently being developed to automate the fabrication and decrease tolerance of the prototypes.

Keywords: maintenance-free sensors, measurements at point of use, piezoelectric flow harvesting, universal micro generator, wireless metering systems

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228 Through Additive Manufacturing. A New Perspective for the Mass Production of Made in Italy Products

Authors: Elisabetta Cianfanelli, Paolo Pupparo, Maria Claudia Coppola

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The recent evolutions in the innovation processes and in the intrinsic tendencies of the product development process, lead to new considerations on the design flow. The instability and complexity that contemporary life describes, defines new problems in the production of products, stimulating at the same time the adoption of new solutions across the entire design process. The advent of Additive Manufacturing, but also of IOT and AI technologies, continuously puts us in front of new paradigms regarding design as a social activity. The totality of these technologies from the point of view of application describes a whole series of problems and considerations immanent to design thinking. Addressing these problems may require some initial intuition and the use of some provisional set of rules or plausible strategies, i.e., heuristic reasoning. At the same time, however, the evolution of digital technology and the computational speed of new design tools describe a new and contrary design framework in which to operate. It is therefore interesting to understand the opportunities and boundaries of the new man-algorithm relationship. The contribution investigates the man-algorithm relationship starting from the state of the art of the Made in Italy model, the most known fields of application are described and then focus on specific cases in which the mutual relationship between man and AI becomes a new driving force of innovation for entire production chains. On the other hand, the use of algorithms could engulf many design phases, such as the definition of shape, dimensions, proportions, materials, static verifications, and simulations. Operating in this context, therefore, becomes a strategic action, capable of defining fundamental choices for the design of product systems in the near future. If there is a human-algorithm combination within a new integrated system, quantitative values can be controlled in relation to qualitative and material values. The trajectory that is described therefore becomes a new design horizon in which to operate, where it is interesting to highlight the good practices that already exist. In this context, the designer developing new forms can experiment with ways still unexpressed in the project and can define a new synthesis and simplification of algorithms, so that each artifact has a signature in order to define in all its parts, emotional and structural. This signature of the designer, a combination of values and design culture, will be internal to the algorithms and able to relate to digital technologies, creating a generative dialogue for design purposes. The result that is envisaged indicates a new vision of digital technologies, no longer understood only as of the custodians of vast quantities of information, but also as a valid integrated tool in close relationship with the design culture.

Keywords: decision making, design euristics, product design, product design process, design paradigms

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
227 An A-Star Approach for the Quickest Path Problem with Time Windows

Authors: Christofas Stergianos, Jason Atkin, Herve Morvan

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As air traffic increases, more airports are interested in utilizing optimization methods. Many processes happen in parallel at an airport, and complex models are needed in order to have a reliable solution that can be implemented for ground movement operations. The ground movement for aircraft in an airport, allocating a path to each aircraft to follow in order to reach their destination (e.g. runway or gate), is one process that could be optimized. The Quickest Path Problem with Time Windows (QPPTW) algorithm has been developed to provide a conflict-free routing of vehicles and has been applied to routing aircraft around an airport. It was subsequently modified to increase the accuracy for airport applications. These modifications take into consideration specific characteristics of the problem, such as: the pushback process, which considers the extra time that is needed for pushing back an aircraft and turning its engines on; stand holding where any waiting should be allocated to the stand; and runway sequencing, where the sequence of the aircraft that take off is optimized and has to be respected. QPPTW involves searching for the quickest path by expanding the search in all directions, similarly to Dijkstra’s algorithm. Finding a way to direct the expansion can potentially assist the search and achieve a better performance. We have further modified the QPPTW algorithm to use a heuristic approach in order to guide the search. This new algorithm is based on the A-star search method but estimates the remaining time (instead of distance) in order to assess how far the target is. It is important to consider the remaining time that it is needed to reach the target, so that delays that are caused by other aircraft can be part of the optimization method. All of the other characteristics are still considered and time windows are still used in order to route multiple aircraft rather than a single aircraft. In this way the quickest path is found for each aircraft while taking into account the movements of the previously routed aircraft. After running experiments using a week of real aircraft data from Zurich Airport, the new algorithm (A-star QPPTW) was found to route aircraft much more quickly, being especially fast in routing the departing aircraft where pushback delays are significant. On average A-star QPPTW could route a full day (755 to 837 aircraft movements) 56% faster than the original algorithm. In total the routing of a full week of aircraft took only 12 seconds with the new algorithm, 15 seconds faster than the original algorithm. For real time application, the algorithm needs to be very fast, and this speed increase will allow us to add additional features and complexity, allowing further integration with other processes in airports and leading to more optimized and environmentally friendly airports.

Keywords: a-star search, airport operations, ground movement optimization, routing and scheduling

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226 Enhance Concurrent Design Approach through a Design Methodology Based on an Artificial Intelligence Framework: Guiding Group Decision Making to Balanced Preliminary Design Solution

Authors: Loris Franchi, Daniele Calvi, Sabrina Corpino

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This paper presents a design methodology in which stakeholders are assisted with the exploration of a so-called negotiation space, aiming to the maximization of both group social welfare and single stakeholder’s perceived utility. The outcome results in less design iterations needed for design convergence while obtaining a higher solution effectiveness. During the early stage of a space project, not only the knowledge about the system but also the decision outcomes often are unknown. The scenario is exacerbated by the fact that decisions taken in this stage imply delayed costs associated with them. Hence, it is necessary to have a clear definition of the problem under analysis, especially in the initial definition. This can be obtained thanks to a robust generation and exploration of design alternatives. This process must consider that design usually involves various individuals, who take decisions affecting one another. An effective coordination among these decision-makers is critical. Finding mutual agreement solution will reduce the iterations involved in the design process. To handle this scenario, the paper proposes a design methodology which, aims to speed-up the process of pushing the mission’s concept maturity level. This push up is obtained thanks to a guided negotiation space exploration, which involves autonomously exploration and optimization of trade opportunities among stakeholders via Artificial Intelligence algorithms. The negotiation space is generated via a multidisciplinary collaborative optimization method, infused by game theory and multi-attribute utility theory. In particular, game theory is able to model the negotiation process to reach the equilibria among stakeholder needs. Because of the huge dimension of the negotiation space, a collaborative optimization framework with evolutionary algorithm has been integrated in order to guide the game process to efficiently and rapidly searching for the Pareto equilibria among stakeholders. At last, the concept of utility constituted the mechanism to bridge the language barrier between experts of different backgrounds and differing needs, using the elicited and modeled needs to evaluate a multitude of alternatives. To highlight the benefits of the proposed methodology, the paper presents the design of a CubeSat mission for the observation of lunar radiation environment. The derived solution results able to balance all stakeholders needs and guaranteeing the effectiveness of the selection mission concept thanks to its robustness in valuable changeability. The benefits provided by the proposed design methodology are highlighted, and further development proposed.

Keywords: concurrent engineering, artificial intelligence, negotiation in engineering design, multidisciplinary optimization

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225 Application of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for the Evaluation of Concrete on the Construction Site and in the Laboratory

Authors: Gerd Wilsch, Tobias Guenther, Tobias Voelker

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In view of the ageing of vital infrastructure facilities, a reliable condition assessment of concrete structures is becoming of increasing interest for asset owners to plan timely and appropriate maintenance and repair interventions. For concrete structures, reinforcement corrosion induced by penetrating chlorides is the dominant deterioration mechanism affecting the serviceability and, eventually, structural performance. The determination of the quantitative chloride ingress is required not only to provide valuable information on the present condition of a structure, but the data obtained can also be used for the prediction of its future development and associated risks. At present, wet chemical analysis of ground concrete samples by a laboratory is the most common test procedure for the determination of the chloride content. As the chloride content is expressed by the mass of the binder, the analysis should involve determination of both the amount of binder and the amount of chloride contained in a concrete sample. This procedure is laborious, time-consuming, and costly. The chloride profile obtained is based on depth intervals of 10 mm. LIBS is an economically viable alternative providing chloride contents at depth intervals of 1 mm or less. It provides two-dimensional maps of quantitative element distributions and can locate spots of higher concentrations like in a crack. The results are correlated directly to the mass of the binder, and it can be applied on-site to deliver instantaneous results for the evaluation of the structure. Examples for the application of the method in the laboratory for the investigation of diffusion and migration of chlorides, sulfates, and alkalis are presented. An example for the visualization of the Li transport in concrete is also shown. These examples show the potential of the method for a fast, reliable, and automated two-dimensional investigation of transport processes. Due to the better spatial resolution, more accurate input parameters for model calculations are determined. By the simultaneous detection of elements such as carbon, chlorine, sodium, and potassium, the mutual influence of the different processes can be determined in only one measurement. Furthermore, the application of a mobile LIBS system in a parking garage is demonstrated. It uses a diode-pumped low energy laser (3 mJ, 1.5 ns, 100 Hz) and a compact NIR spectrometer. A portable scanner allows a two-dimensional quantitative element mapping. Results show the quantitative chloride analysis on wall and floor surfaces. To determine the 2-D distribution of harmful elements (Cl, C), concrete cores were drilled, split, and analyzed directly on-site. Results obtained were compared and verified with laboratory measurements. The results presented show that the LIBS method is a valuable addition to the standard procedures - the wet chemical analysis of ground concrete samples. Currently, work is underway to develop a technical code of practice for the application of the method for the determination of chloride concentration in concrete.

Keywords: chemical analysis, concrete, LIBS, spectroscopy

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224 Middle School as a Developmental Context for Emergent Citizenship

Authors: Casta Guillaume, Robert Jagers, Deborah Rivas-Drake

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Civically engaged youth are critical to maintaining and/or improving the functioning of local, national and global communities and their institutions. The present study investigated how school climate and academic beliefs (academic self-efficacy and school belonging) may inform emergent civic behaviors (emergent citizenship) among self-identified middle school youth of color (African American, Multiracial or Mixed, Latino, Asian American or Pacific Islander, Native American, and other). Study aims: 1) Understand whether and how school climate is associated with civic engagement behaviors, directly and indirectly, by fostering a positive sense of connection to the school and/or engendering feelings of self-efficacy in the academic domain. Accordingly, we examined 2) The association of youths’ sense of school connection and academic self-efficacy with their personally responsible and participatory civic behaviors in school and community contexts—both concurrently and longitudinally. Data from two subsamples of a larger study of social/emotional development among middle school students were used for longitudinal and cross sectional analysis. The cross-sectional sample included 324 6th-8th grade students, of which 43% identified as African American, 20% identified as Multiracial or Mixed, 18% identified as Latino, 12% identified as Asian American or Pacific Islander, 6% identified as Other, and 1% identified as Native American. The age of the sample ranged from 11 – 15 (M = 12.33, SD = .97). For the longitudinal test of our mediation model, we drew on data from the 6th and 7th grade cohorts only (n =232); the ethnic and racial diversity of this longitudinal subsample was virtually identical to that of the cross-sectional sample. For both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, full information maximum likelihood was used to deal with missing data. Fit indices were inspected to determine if they met the recommended thresholds of RMSEA below .05 and CFI and TLI values of at least .90. To determine if particular mediation pathways were significant, the bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals for each indirect pathway were inspected. Fit indices for the latent variable mediation model using the cross-sectional data suggest that the hypothesized model fit the observed data well (CFI = .93; TLI =. 92; RMSEA = .05, 90% CI = [.04, .06]). In the model, students’ perceptions of school climate were significantly and positively associated with greater feelings of school connectedness, which were in turn significantly and positively associated with civic engagement. In addition, school climate was significantly and positively associated with greater academic self-efficacy, but academic self-efficacy was not significantly associated with civic engagement. Tests of mediation indicated there was one significant indirect pathway between school climate and civic engagement behavior. There was an indirect association between school climate and civic engagement via its association with sense of school connectedness, indirect association estimate = .17 [95% CI: .08, .32]. The aforementioned indirect association via school connectedness accounted for 50% (.17/.34) of the total effect. Partial support was found for the prediction that students’ perceptions of a positive school climate are linked to civic engagement in part through their role in students’ sense of connection to school.

Keywords: civic engagement, early adolescence, school climate, school belonging, developmental niche

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223 Tectono-Stratigraphic Architecture, Depositional Systems and Salt Tectonics to Strike-Slip Faulting in Kribi-Campo-Cameroon Atlantic Margin with an Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach (West African Margin)

Authors: Joseph Bertrand Iboum Kissaaka, Charles Fonyuy Ngum Tchioben, Paul Gustave Fowe Kwetche, Jeannette Ngo Elogan Ntem, Joseph Binyet Njebakal, Ribert Yvan Makosso-Tchapi, François Mvondo Owono, Marie Joseph Ntamak-Nida

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Located in the Gulf of Guinea, the Kribi-Campo sub-basin belongs to the Aptian salt basins along the West African Margin. In this paper, we investigated the tectono-stratigraphic architecture of the basin, focusing on the role of salt tectonics and strike-slip faults along the Kribi Fracture Zone with implications for reservoir prediction. Using 2D seismic data and well data interpreted through sequence stratigraphy with integrated seismic attributes analysis with Python Programming and unsupervised Machine Learning, at least six second-order sequences, indicating three main stages of tectono-stratigraphic evolution, were determined: pre-salt syn-rift, post-salt rift climax and post-rift stages. The pre-salt syn-rift stage with KTS1 tectonosequence (Barremian-Aptian) reveals a transform rifting along NE-SW transfer faults associated with N-S to NNE-SSW syn-rift longitudinal faults bounding a NW-SE half-graben filled with alluvial to lacustrine-fan delta deposits. The post-salt rift-climax stage (Lower to Upper Cretaceous) includes two second-order tectonosequences (KTS2 and KTS3) associated with the salt tectonics and Campo High uplift. During the rift-climax stage, the growth of salt diapirs developed syncline withdrawal basins filled by early forced regression, mid transgressive and late normal regressive systems tracts. The early rift climax underlines some fine-grained hangingwall fans or delta deposits and coarse-grained fans from the footwall of fault scarps. The post-rift stage (Paleogene to Neogene) contains at least three main tectonosequences KTS4, KTS5 and KTS6-7. The first one developed some turbiditic lobe complexes considered as mass transport complexes and feeder channel-lobe complexes cutting the unstable shelf edge of the Campo High. The last two developed submarine Channel Complexes associated with lobes towards the southern part and braided delta to tidal channels towards the northern part of the Kribi-Campo sub-basin. The reservoir distribution in the Kribi-Campo sub-basin reveals some channels, fan lobes reservoirs and stacked channels reaching up to the polygonal fault systems.

Keywords: tectono-stratigraphic architecture, Kribi-Campo sub-basin, machine learning, pre-salt sequences, post-salt sequences

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222 Movie and Theater Marketing Using the Potentials of Social Networks

Authors: Seyed Reza Naghibulsadat

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The nature of communication includes various forms of media productions, which include film and theater. In the current situation, since social networks have emerged, they have brought their own communication capabilities and have features that show speed, public access, lack of media organization and the production of extensive content, and the development of critical thinking; Also, they contain capabilities to develop access to all kinds of media productions, including movies and theater shows; Of course, this works differently in different conditions and communities. In terms of the scale of exploitation, the film has a more general audience, and the theater has a special audience. The film industry is more developed based on more modern technologies, but the theater, based on the older ways of communication, contains more intimate and emotional aspects. ; But in general, the main focus is the development of access to movies and theater shows, which is emphasized by those involved in this field due to the capabilities of social networks. In this research, we will look at these 2 areas and the relevant components for both areas through social networks and also the common points of both types of media production. The main goal of this research is to know the strengths and weaknesses of using social networks for the marketing of movies and theater shows and, at the same time are, also considered the opportunities and threats of this field. The attractions of these two types of media production, with the emergence of social networks, and the ability to change positions, can provide the opportunity to become a media with greater exploitation and higher profitability; But the main consideration is the opinions about these capabilities and the ability to use them for film and theater marketing. The main question of the research is, what are the marketing components for movies and theaters using social media capabilities? What are its strengths and weaknesses? And what opportunities and threats are facing this market? This research has been done with two methods SWOT and meta-analysis. Non-probability sampling has been used with purposeful technique. The results show that a recent approach is an approach based on eliminating threats and weaknesses and emphasizing strengths, and exploiting opportunities in the direction of developing film and theater marketing based on the capabilities of social networks within the framework of local cultural values and presenting achievements on an international scale or It is universal. This introduction leads to the introduction of authentic Iranian culture and foreign enthusiasts in the framework of movies and theater art. Therefore, for this issue, the model for using the capabilities of social networks for movie or theater marketing, according to the results obtained from Respondents, is a model based on SO strategies and, in other words, offensive strategies so that it can take advantage of the internal strengths and made maximum use of foreign situations and opportunities to develop the use of movies and theater performances.

Keywords: marketing, movies, theatrical show, social network potentials

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221 The Role of Supply Chain Agility in Improving Manufacturing Resilience

Authors: Maryam Ziaee

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This research proposes a new approach and provides an opportunity for manufacturing companies to produce large amounts of products that meet their prospective customers’ tastes, needs, and expectations and simultaneously enable manufacturers to increase their profit. Mass customization is the production of products or services to meet each individual customer’s desires to the greatest possible extent in high quantities and at reasonable prices. This process takes place at different levels such as the customization of goods’ design, assembly, sale, and delivery status, and classifies in several categories. The main focus of this study is on one class of mass customization, called optional customization, in which companies try to provide their customers with as many options as possible to customize their products. These options could range from the design phase to the manufacturing phase, or even methods of delivery. Mass customization values customers’ tastes, but it is only one side of clients’ satisfaction; on the other side is companies’ fast responsiveness delivery. It brings the concept of agility, which is the ability of a company to respond rapidly to changes in volatile markets in terms of volume and variety. Indeed, mass customization is not effectively feasible without integrating the concept of agility. To gain the customers’ satisfaction, the companies need to be quick in responding to their customers’ demands, thus highlighting the significance of agility. This research offers a different method that successfully integrates mass customization and fast production in manufacturing industries. This research is built upon the hypothesis that the success key to being agile in mass customization is to forecast demand, cooperate with suppliers, and control inventory. Therefore, the significance of the supply chain (SC) is more pertinent when it comes to this stage. Since SC behavior is dynamic and its behavior changes constantly, companies have to apply one of the predicting techniques to identify the changes associated with SC behavior to be able to respond properly to any unwelcome events. System dynamics utilized in this research is a simulation approach to provide a mathematical model among different variables to understand, control, and forecast SC behavior. The final stage is delayed differentiation, the production strategy considered in this research. In this approach, the main platform of products is produced and stocked and when the company receives an order from a customer, a specific customized feature is assigned to this platform and the customized products will be created. The main research question is to what extent applying system dynamics for the prediction of SC behavior improves the agility of mass customization. This research is built upon a qualitative approach to bring about richer, deeper, and more revealing results. The data is collected through interviews and is analyzed through NVivo software. This proposed model offers numerous benefits such as reduction in the number of product inventories and their storage costs, improvement in the resilience of companies’ responses to their clients’ needs and tastes, the increase of profits, and the optimization of productivity with the minimum level of lost sales.

Keywords: agility, manufacturing, resilience, supply chain

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220 Marine Environmental Monitoring Using an Open Source Autonomous Marine Surface Vehicle

Authors: U. Pruthviraj, Praveen Kumar R. A. K. Athul, K. V. Gangadharan, S. Rao Shrikantha

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An open source based autonomous unmanned marine surface vehicle (UMSV) is developed for some of the marine applications such as pollution control, environmental monitoring and thermal imaging. A double rotomoulded hull boat is deployed which is rugged, tough, quick to deploy and moves faster. It is suitable for environmental monitoring, and it is designed for easy maintenance. A 2HP electric outboard marine motor is used which is powered by a lithium-ion battery and can also be charged from a solar charger. All connections are completely waterproof to IP67 ratings. In full throttle speed, the marine motor is capable of up to 7 kmph. The motor is integrated with an open source based controller using cortex M4F for adjusting the direction of the motor. This UMSV can be operated by three modes: semi-autonomous, manual and fully automated. One of the channels of a 2.4GHz radio link 8 channel transmitter is used for toggling between different modes of the USMV. In this electric outboard marine motor an on board GPS system has been fitted to find the range and GPS positioning. The entire system can be assembled in the field in less than 10 minutes. A Flir Lepton thermal camera core, is integrated with a 64-bit quad-core Linux based open source processor, facilitating real-time capturing of thermal images and the results are stored in a micro SD card which is a data storage device for the system. The thermal camera is interfaced to an open source processor through SPI protocol. These thermal images are used for finding oil spills and to look for people who are drowning at low visibility during the night time. A Real Time clock (RTC) module is attached with the battery to provide the date and time of thermal images captured. For the live video feed, a 900MHz long range video transmitter and receiver is setup by which from a higher power output a longer range of 40miles has been achieved. A Multi-parameter probe is used to measure the following parameters: conductivity, salinity, resistivity, density, dissolved oxygen content, ORP (Oxidation-Reduction Potential), pH level, temperature, water level and pressure (absolute).The maximum pressure it can withstand 160 psi, up to 100m. This work represents a field demonstration of an open source based autonomous navigation system for a marine surface vehicle.

Keywords: open source, autonomous navigation, environmental monitoring, UMSV, outboard motor, multi-parameter probe

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219 Teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Seasonal Flow of the Surma River and Possibilities of Long Range Flood Forecasting

Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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218 Upward Spread Forced Smoldering Phenomenon: Effects and Applications

Authors: Akshita Swaminathan, Vinayak Malhotra

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Smoldering is one of the most persistent types of combustion which can take place for very long periods (hours, days, months) if there is an abundance of fuel. It causes quite a notable number of accidents and is one of the prime suspects for fire and safety hazards. It can be ignited with weaker ignition and is more difficult to suppress than flaming combustion. Upward spread smoldering is the case in which the air flow is parallel to the direction of the smoldering front. This type of smoldering is quite uncontrollable, and hence, there is a need to study this phenomenon. As compared to flaming combustion, a smoldering phenomenon often goes unrecognised and hence is a cause for various fire accidents. A simplified experimental setup was raised to study the upward spread smoldering, its effects due to varying forced flow and its effects when it takes place in the presence of external heat sources and alternative energy sources such as acoustic energy. Linear configurations were studied depending on varying forced flow effects on upward spread smoldering. Effect of varying forced flow on upward spread smoldering was observed and studied: (i) in the presence of external heat source (ii) in the presence of external alternative energy sources (acoustic energy). The role of ash removal was observed and studied. Results indicate that upward spread forced smoldering was affected by various key controlling parameters such as the speed of the forced flow, surface orientation, interspace distance (distance between forced flow and the pilot fuel). When an external heat source was placed on either side of the pilot fuel, it was observed that the smoldering phenomenon was affected. The surface orientation and interspace distance between the external heat sources and the pilot fuel were found to play a huge role in altering the regression rate. Lastly, by impinging an alternative energy source in the form of acoustic energy on the smoldering front, it was observed that varying frequencies affected the smoldering phenomenon in different ways. The surface orientation also played an important role. This project highlights the importance of fire and safety hazard and means of better combustion for all kinds of scientific research and practical applications. The knowledge acquired from this work can be applied to various engineering systems ranging from aircrafts, spacecrafts and even to buildings fires, wildfires and help us in better understanding and hence avoiding such widespread fires. Various fire disasters have been recorded in aircrafts due to small electric short circuits which led to smoldering fires. These eventually caused the engine to catch fire that cost damage to life and property. Studying this phenomenon can help us to control, if not prevent, such disasters.

Keywords: alternative energy sources, flaming combustion, ignition, regression rate, smoldering

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217 God, The Master Programmer: The Relationship Between God and Computers

Authors: Mohammad Sabbagh

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Anyone who reads the Torah or the Quran learns that GOD created everything that is around us, seen and unseen, in six days. Within HIS plan of creation, HE placed for us a key proof of HIS existence which is essentially computers and the ability to program them. Digital computer programming began with binary instructions, which eventually evolved to what is known as high-level programming languages. Any programmer in our modern time can attest that you are essentially giving the computer commands by words and when the program is compiled, whatever is processed as output is limited to what the computer was given as an ability and furthermore as an instruction. So one can deduce that GOD created everything around us with HIS words, programming everything around in six days, just like how we can program a virtual world on the computer. GOD did mention in the Quran that one day where GOD’s throne is, is 1000 years of what we count; therefore, one might understand that GOD spoke non-stop for 6000 years of what we count, and gave everything it’s the function, attributes, class, methods and interactions. Similar to what we do in object-oriented programming. Of course, GOD has the higher example, and what HE created is much more than OOP. So when GOD said that everything is already predetermined, it is because any input, whether physical, spiritual or by thought, is outputted by any of HIS creatures, the answer has already been programmed. Any path, any thought, any idea has already been laid out with a reaction to any decision an inputter makes. Exalted is GOD!. GOD refers to HIMSELF as The Fastest Accountant in The Quran; the Arabic word that was used is close to processor or calculator. If you create a 3D simulation of a supernova explosion to understand how GOD produces certain elements and fuses protons together to spread more of HIS blessings around HIS skies; in 2022 you are going to require one of the strongest, fastest, most capable supercomputers of the world that has a theoretical speed of 50 petaFLOPS to accomplish that. In other words, the ability to perform one quadrillion (1015) floating-point operations per second. A number a human cannot even fathom. To put in more of a perspective, GOD is calculating when the computer is going through those 50 petaFLOPS calculations per second and HE is also calculating all the physics of every atom and what is smaller than that in all the actual explosion, and it’s all in truth. When GOD said HE created the world in truth, one of the meanings a person can understand is that when certain things occur around you, whether how a car crashes or how a tree grows; there is a science and a way to understand it, and whatever programming or science you deduce from whatever event you observed, it can relate to other similar events. That is why GOD might have said in The Quran that it is the people of knowledge, scholars, or scientist that fears GOD the most! One thing that is essential for us to keep up with what the computer is doing and for us to track our progress along with any errors is we incorporate logging mechanisms and backups. GOD in The Quran said that ‘WE used to copy what you used to do’. Essentially as the world is running, think of it as an interactive movie that is being played out in front of you, in a full-immersive non-virtual reality setting. GOD is recording it, from every angle to every thought, to every action. This brings the idea of how scary the Day of Judgment will be when one might realize that it’s going to be a fully immersive video when we would be getting and reading our book.

Keywords: programming, the Quran, object orientation, computers and humans, GOD

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
216 Thermodynamics of Aqueous Solutions of Organic Molecule and Electrolyte: Use Cloud Point to Obtain Better Estimates of Thermodynamic Parameters

Authors: Jyoti Sahu, Vinay A. Juvekar

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Electrolytes are often used to bring about salting-in and salting-out of organic molecules and polymers (e.g. polyethylene glycols/proteins) from the aqueous solutions. For quantification of these phenomena, a thermodynamic model which can accurately predict activity coefficient of electrolyte as a function of temperature is needed. The thermodynamics models available in the literature contain a large number of empirical parameters. These parameters are estimated using lower/upper critical solution temperature of the solution in the electrolyte/organic molecule at different temperatures. Since the number of parameters is large, inaccuracy can bethe creep in during their estimation, which can affect the reliability of prediction beyond the range in which these parameters are estimated. Cloud point of solution is related to its free energy through temperature and composition derivative. Hence, the Cloud point measurement can be used for accurate estimation of the temperature and composition dependence of parameters in the model for free energy. Hence, if we use a two pronged procedure in which we first use cloud point of solution to estimate some of the parameters of the thermodynamic model and determine the rest using osmotic coefficient data, we gain on two counts. First, since the parameters, estimated in each of the two steps, are fewer, we achieve higher accuracy of estimation. The second and more important gain is that the resulting model parameters are more sensitive to temperature. This is crucial when we wish to use the model outside temperatures window within which the parameter estimation is sought. The focus of the present work is to prove this proposition. We have used electrolyte (NaCl/Na2CO3)-water-organic molecule (Iso-propanol/ethanol) as the model system. The model of Robinson-Stokes-Glukauf is modified by incorporating the temperature dependent Flory-Huggins interaction parameters. The Helmholtz free energy expression contains, in addition to electrostatic and translational entropic contributions, three Flory-Huggins pairwise interaction contributions viz., and (w-water, p-polymer, s-salt). These parameters depend both on temperature and concentrations. The concentration dependence is expressed in the form of a quadratic expression involving the volume fractions of the interacting species. The temperature dependence is expressed in the form .To obtain the temperature-dependent interaction parameters for organic molecule-water and electrolyte-water systems, Critical solution temperature of electrolyte -water-organic molecules is measured using cloud point measuring apparatus The temperature and composition dependent interaction parameters for electrolyte-water-organic molecule are estimated through measurement of cloud point of solution. The model is used to estimate critical solution temperature (CST) of electrolyte water-organic molecules solution. We have experimentally determined the critical solution temperature of different compositions of electrolyte-water-organic molecule solution and compared the results with the estimates based on our model. The two sets of values show good agreement. On the other hand when only osmotic coefficients are used for estimation of the free energy model, CST predicted using the resulting model show poor agreement with the experiments. Thus, the importance of the CST data in the estimation of parameters of the thermodynamic model is confirmed through this work.

Keywords: concentrated electrolytes, Debye-Hückel theory, interaction parameters, Robinson-Stokes-Glueckauf model, Flory-Huggins model, critical solution temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 360
215 Music as Source Domain: A Cross-Linguistic Exploration of Conceptual Metaphors

Authors: Eleanor Sweeney, Chunyuan Di

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The metaphors people use in everyday discourse do not arise randomly; rather, they develop from our physical experiences in our social and cultural environments. Conceptual Metaphor Theory (CMT) explains that through metaphor, we apply our embodied understanding of the physical world to non-material concepts to understand and express abstract concepts. Our most productive source domains derive from our embodied understanding and allow us to develop primary metaphors, and from primary metaphors, an elaborate, creative world of culturally constructed complex metaphors. Cognitive Linguistics researchers draw upon individual embodied experience for primary metaphors. Socioculturally embodied experience through music has long furnished linguistic expressions in diverse languages, as conceptual metaphors or everyday expressions.  Can a socially embodied experience function in the same way as an individually embodied experience in the creation of conceptual metaphors? The authors argue that since music is inherently social and embodied, musical experiences function as a richly motivated source domain. The focus of this study is socially embodied musical experience which is then reflected and expressed through metaphors. This cross-linguistic study explores music as a source domain for metaphors of social alignment in English, French, and Chinese. The authors explored two public discourse sites, Facebook and Linguée, in order to collect linguistic metaphors from three different languages. By conducting this cross-linguistic study, cross-cultural similarities and differences in metaphors for which music is the source domain can be examined. Different musical elements, such as melody, speed, rhythm and harmony, are analyzed for their possible metaphoric meanings of social alignment. Our findings suggest that the general metaphor cooperation is music is a productive metaphor with some subcases, and that correlated social behaviors can be metaphorically expressed with certain elements in music. For example, since performance is a subset of the category behavior, there is a natural mapping from performance in music to behavior in social settings: social alignment is musical performance. Musical performance entails a collective social expectation that exerts control over individual behavior.  When individual behavior does not align with the collective social expectation, music-related expressions are often used to express how the individual is violating social norms. Moreover, when individuals do align their behavior with social norms, similar musical expressions are used. Cooperation is a crucial social value in all cultures, indeed it is a key element of survival, and music provides a coherent, consistent, and rich source domain—one based upon a universal and definitive cultural practice.

Keywords: Chinese, Conceptual Metaphor Theory, cross-linguistic, culturally embodied experience, English, French, metaphor, music

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
214 Isolation and Characterization of a Narrow-Host Range Aeromonas hydrophila Lytic Bacteriophage

Authors: Sumeet Rai, Anuj Tyagi, B. T. Naveen Kumar, Shubhkaramjeet Kaur, Niraj K. Singh

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Since their discovery, indiscriminate use of antibiotics in human, veterinary and aquaculture systems has resulted in global emergence/spread of multidrug-resistant bacterial pathogens. Thus, the need for alternative approaches to control bacterial infections has become utmost important. High selectivity/specificity of bacteriophages (phages) permits the targeting of specific bacteria without affecting the desirable flora. In this study, a lytic phage (Ahp1) specific to Aeromonas hydrophila subsp. hydrophila was isolated from finfish aquaculture pond. The host range of Ahp1 range was tested against 10 isolates of A. hydrophila, 7 isolates of A. veronii, 25 Vibrio cholerae isolates, 4 V. parahaemolyticus isolates and one isolate each of V. harveyi and Salmonella enterica collected previously. Except the host A. hydrophila subsp. hydrophila strain, no lytic activity against any other bacterial was detected. During the adsorption rate and one-step growth curve analysis, 69.7% of phage particles were able to get adsorbed on host cell followed by the release of 93 ± 6 phage progenies per host cell after a latent period of ~30 min. Phage nucleic acid was extracted by column purification methods. After determining the nature of phage nucleic acid as dsDNA, phage genome was subjected to next-generation sequencing by generating paired-end (PE, 2 x 300bp) reads on Illumina MiSeq system. De novo assembly of sequencing reads generated circular phage genome of 42,439 bp with G+C content of 58.95%. During open read frame (ORF) prediction and annotation, 22 ORFs (out of 49 total predicted ORFs) were functionally annotated and rest encoded for hypothetical proteins. Proteins involved in major functions such as phage structure formation and packaging, DNA replication and repair, DNA transcription and host cell lysis were encoded by the phage genome. The complete genome sequence of Ahp1 along with gene annotation was submitted to NCBI GenBank (accession number MF683623). Stability of Ahp1 preparations at storage temperatures of 4 °C, 30 °C, and 40 °C was studied over a period of 9 months. At 40 °C storage, phage counts declined by 4 log units within one month; with a total loss of viability after 2 months. At 30 °C temperature, phage preparation was stable for < 5 months. On the other hand, phage counts decreased by only 2 log units over a period of 9 during storage at 4 °C. As some of the phages have also been reported as glycerol sensitive, the stability of Ahp1 preparations in (0%, 15%, 30% and 45%) glycerol stocks were also studied during storage at -80 °C over a period of 9 months. The phage counts decreased only by 2 log units during storage, and no significant difference in phage counts was observed at different concentrations of glycerol. The Ahp1 phage discovered in our study had a very narrow host range and it may be useful for phage typing applications. Moreover, the endolysin and holin genes in Ahp1 genome could be ideal candidates for recombinant cloning and expression of antimicrobial proteins.

Keywords: Aeromonas hydrophila, endolysin, phage, narrow host range

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
213 Public-Private Partnership for Critical Infrastructure Resilience

Authors: Anjula Negi, D. T. V. Raghu Ramaswamy, Rajneesh Sareen

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Road infrastructure is emphatically one of the top most critical infrastructure to the Indian economy. Road network in the country of around 3.3 million km is the second largest in the world. Nationwide statistics released by Ministry of Road, Transport and Highways reveal that every minute an accident happens and one death every 3.7 minutes. This reported scale in terms of safety is a matter of grave concern, and economically represents a national loss of 3% to the GDP. Union Budget 2016-17 has allocated USD 12 billion annually for development and strengthening of roads, an increase of 56% from last year. Thus, highlighting the importance of roads as critical infrastructure. National highway alone represent only 1.7% of the total road linkages, however, carry over 40% of traffic. Further, trends analysed from 2002 -2011 on national highways, indicate that in less than a decade, a 22 % increase in accidents have been reported, but, 68% increase in death fatalities. Paramount inference is that accident severity has increased with time. Over these years many measures to increase road safety, lessening damage to physical assets, reducing vulnerabilities leading to a build-up for resilient road infrastructure have been taken. In the context of national highway development program, policy makers proposed implementation of around 20 % of such road length on PPP mode. These roads were taken up on high-density traffic considerations and for qualitative implementation. In order to understand resilience impacts and safety parameters, enshrined in various PPP concession agreements executed with the private sector partners, such highway specific projects would be appraised. This research paper would attempt to assess such safety measures taken and the possible reasons behind an increase in accident severity through these PPP case study projects. Delving further on safety features to understand policy measures adopted in these cases and an introspection on reasons of severity, whether an outcome of increased speeds, faulty road design and geometrics, driver negligence, or due to lack of discipline in following lane traffic with increased speed. Assessment exercise would study these aspects hitherto to PPP and post PPP project structures, based on literature review and opinion surveys with sectoral experts. On the way forward, it is understood that the Ministry of Road, Transport and Highway’s estimate for strengthening the national highway network is USD 77 billion within next five years. The outcome of this paper would provide an understanding of resilience measures adopted, possible options for accessible and safe road network and its expansion to policy makers for possible policy initiatives and funding allocation in securing critical infrastructure.

Keywords: national highways, policy, PPP, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 231
212 Co-Seismic Deformation Using InSAR Sentinel-1A: Case Study of the 6.5 Mw Pidie Jaya, Aceh, Earthquake

Authors: Jefriza, Habibah Lateh, Saumi Syahreza

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The 2016 Mw 6.5 Pidie Jaya earthquake is one of the biggest disasters that has occurred in Aceh within the last five years. This earthquake has caused severe damage to many infrastructures such as schools, hospitals, mosques, and houses in the district of Pidie Jaya and surrounding areas. Earthquakes commonly occur in Aceh Province due to the Aceh-Sumatra is located in the convergent boundaries of the Sunda Plate subducted beneath the Indo-Australian Plate. This convergence is responsible for the intensification of seismicity in this region. The plates are tilted at a speed of 63 mm per year and the right lateral component is accommodated by strike- slip faulting within Sumatra, mainly along the great Sumatran fault. This paper presents preliminary findings of InSAR study aimed at investigating the co-seismic surface deformation pattern in Pidie Jaya, Aceh-Indonesia. Coseismic surface deformation is rapid displacement that occurs at the time of an earthquake. Coseismic displacement mapping is required to study the behavior of seismic faults. InSAR is a powerful tool for measuring Earth surface deformation to a precision of a few centimetres. In this study, two radar images of the same area but at two different times are required to detect changes in the Earth’s surface. The ascending and descending Sentinel-1A (S1A) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and Sentinels application platform (SNAP) toolbox were used to generate SAR interferogram image. In order to visualize the InSAR interferometric, the S1A from both master (26 Nov 2016) and slave data-sets (26 Dec 2016) were utilized as the main data source for mapping the coseismic surface deformation. The results show that the fringes of phase difference have appeared in the border region as a result of the movement that was detected with interferometric technique. On the other hand, the dominant fringes pattern also appears near the coastal area, this is consistent with the field investigations two days after the earthquake. However, the study has also limitations of resolution and atmospheric artefacts in SAR interferograms. The atmospheric artefacts are caused by changes in the atmospheric refractive index of the medium, as a result, has limitation to produce coherence image. Low coherence will be affected the result in creating fringes (movement can be detected by fringes). The spatial resolution of the Sentinel satellite has not been sufficient for studying land surface deformation in this area. Further studies will also be investigated using both ALOS and TerraSAR-X. ALOS and TerraSAR-X improved the spatial resolution of SAR satellite.

Keywords: earthquake, InSAR, interferometric, Sentinel-1A

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
211 FracXpert: Ensemble Machine Learning Approach for Localization and Classification of Bone Fractures in Cricket Athletes

Authors: Madushani Rodrigo, Banuka Athuraliya

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In today's world of medical diagnosis and prediction, machine learning stands out as a strong tool, transforming old ways of caring for health. This study analyzes the use of machine learning in the specialized domain of sports medicine, with a focus on the timely and accurate detection of bone fractures in cricket athletes. Failure to identify bone fractures in real time can result in malunion or non-union conditions. To ensure proper treatment and enhance the bone healing process, accurately identifying fracture locations and types is necessary. When interpreting X-ray images, it relies on the expertise and experience of medical professionals in the identification process. Sometimes, radiographic images are of low quality, leading to potential issues. Therefore, it is necessary to have a proper approach to accurately localize and classify fractures in real time. The research has revealed that the optimal approach needs to address the stated problem and employ appropriate radiographic image processing techniques and object detection algorithms. These algorithms should effectively localize and accurately classify all types of fractures with high precision and in a timely manner. In order to overcome the challenges of misidentifying fractures, a distinct model for fracture localization and classification has been implemented. The research also incorporates radiographic image enhancement and preprocessing techniques to overcome the limitations posed by low-quality images. A classification ensemble model has been implemented using ResNet18 and VGG16. In parallel, a fracture segmentation model has been implemented using the enhanced U-Net architecture. Combining the results of these two implemented models, the FracXpert system can accurately localize exact fracture locations along with fracture types from the available 12 different types of fracture patterns, which include avulsion, comminuted, compressed, dislocation, greenstick, hairline, impacted, intraarticular, longitudinal, oblique, pathological, and spiral. This system will generate a confidence score level indicating the degree of confidence in the predicted result. Using ResNet18 and VGG16 architectures, the implemented fracture segmentation model, based on the U-Net architecture, achieved a high accuracy level of 99.94%, demonstrating its precision in identifying fracture locations. Simultaneously, the classification ensemble model achieved an accuracy of 81.0%, showcasing its ability to categorize various fracture patterns, which is instrumental in the fracture treatment process. In conclusion, FracXpert has become a promising ML application in sports medicine, demonstrating its potential to revolutionize fracture detection processes. By leveraging the power of ML algorithms, this study contributes to the advancement of diagnostic capabilities in cricket athlete healthcare, ensuring timely and accurate identification of bone fractures for the best treatment outcomes.

Keywords: multiclass classification, object detection, ResNet18, U-Net, VGG16

Procedia PDF Downloads 48
210 Deterioration Prediction of Pavement Load Bearing Capacity from FWD Data

Authors: Kotaro Sasai, Daijiro Mizutani, Kiyoyuki Kaito

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Expressways in Japan have been built in an accelerating manner since the 1960s with the aid of rapid economic growth. About 40 percent in length of expressways in Japan is now 30 years and older and has become superannuated. Time-related deterioration has therefore reached to a degree that administrators, from a standpoint of operation and maintenance, are forced to take prompt measures on a large scale aiming at repairing inner damage deep in pavements. These measures have already been performed for bridge management in Japan and are also expected to be embodied for pavement management. Thus, planning methods for the measures are increasingly demanded. Deterioration of layers around road surface such as surface course and binder course is brought about at the early stages of whole pavement deterioration process, around 10 to 30 years after construction. These layers have been repaired primarily because inner damage usually becomes significant after outer damage, and because surveys for measuring inner damage such as Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) survey and open-cut survey are costly and time-consuming process, which has made it difficult for administrators to focus on inner damage as much as they have been supposed to. As expressways today have serious time-related deterioration within them deriving from the long time span since they started to be used, it is obvious the idea of repairing layers deep in pavements such as base course and subgrade must be taken into consideration when planning maintenance on a large scale. This sort of maintenance requires precisely predicting degrees of deterioration as well as grasping the present situations of pavements. Methods for predicting deterioration are determined to be either mechanical or statistical. While few mechanical models have been presented, as far as the authors know of, previous studies have presented statistical methods for predicting deterioration in pavements. One describes deterioration process by estimating Markov deterioration hazard model, while another study illustrates it by estimating Proportional deterioration hazard model. Both of the studies analyze deflection data obtained from FWD surveys and present statistical methods for predicting deterioration process of layers around road surface. However, layers of base course and subgrade remain unanalyzed. In this study, data collected from FWD surveys are analyzed to predict deterioration process of layers deep in pavements in addition to surface layers by a means of estimating a deterioration hazard model using continuous indexes. This model can prevent the loss of information of data when setting rating categories in Markov deterioration hazard model when evaluating degrees of deterioration in roadbeds and subgrades. As a result of portraying continuous indexes, the model can predict deterioration in each layer of pavements and evaluate it quantitatively. Additionally, as the model can also depict probability distribution of the indexes at an arbitrary point and establish a risk control level arbitrarily, it is expected that this study will provide knowledge like life cycle cost and informative content during decision making process referring to where to do maintenance on as well as when.

Keywords: deterioration hazard model, falling weight deflectometer, inner damage, load bearing capacity, pavement

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
209 Cloud Based Supply Chain Traceability

Authors: Kedar J. Mahadeshwar

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Concept introduction: This paper talks about how an innovative cloud based analytics enabled solution that could address a major industry challenge that is approaching all of us globally faster than what one would think. The world of supply chain for drugs and devices is changing today at a rapid speed. In the US, the Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA) is a new law for Tracing, Verification and Serialization phasing in starting Jan 1, 2015 for manufacturers, repackagers, wholesalers and pharmacies / clinics. Similarly we are seeing pressures building up in Europe, China and many countries that would require an absolute traceability of every drug and device end to end. Companies (both manufacturers and distributors) can use this opportunity not only to be compliant but to differentiate themselves over competition. And moreover a country such as UAE can be the leader in coming up with a global solution that brings innovation in this industry. Problem definition and timing: The problem of counterfeit drug market, recognized by FDA, causes billions of dollars loss every year. Even in UAE, the concerns over prevalence of counterfeit drugs, which enter through ports such as Dubai remains a big concern, as per UAE pharma and healthcare report, Q1 2015. Distribution of drugs and devices involves multiple processes and systems that do not talk to each other. Consumer confidence is at risk due to this lack of traceability and any leading provider is at risk of losing its reputation. Globally there is an increasing pressure by government and regulatory bodies to trace serial numbers and lot numbers of every drug and medical devices throughout a supply chain. Though many of large corporations use some form of ERP (enterprise resource planning) software, it is far from having a capability to trace a lot and serial number beyond the enterprise and making this information easily available real time. Solution: The solution here talks about a service provider that allows all subscribers to take advantage of this service. The solution allows a service provider regardless of its physical location, to host this cloud based traceability and analytics solution of millions of distribution transactions that capture lots of each drug and device. The solution platform will capture a movement of every medical device and drug end to end from its manufacturer to a hospital or a doctor through a series of distributor or retail network. The platform also provides advanced analytics solution to do some intelligent reporting online. Why Dubai? Opportunity exists with huge investment done in Dubai healthcare city also with using technology and infrastructure to attract more FDI to provide such a service. UAE and countries similar will be facing this pressure from regulators globally in near future. But more interestingly, Dubai can attract such innovators/companies to run and host such a cloud based solution and become a hub of such traceability globally.

Keywords: cloud, pharmaceutical, supply chain, tracking

Procedia PDF Downloads 508
208 Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Air Distribution System of Larder Type Refrigerator

Authors: Funda Erdem Şahnali, Ş. Özgür Atayılmaz, Tolga N. Aynur

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Almost all of the domestic refrigerators operate on the principle of the vapor compression refrigeration cycle and removal of heat from the refrigerator cabinets is done via one of the two methods: natural convection or forced convection. In this study, airflow and temperature distributions inside a 375L no-frost type larder cabinet, in which cooling is provided by forced convection, are evaluated both experimentally and numerically. Airflow rate, compressor capacity and temperature distribution in the cooling chamber are known to be some of the most important factors that affect the cooling performance and energy consumption of a refrigerator. The objective of this study is to evaluate the original temperature distribution in the larder cabinet, and investigate for better temperature distribution solutions throughout the refrigerator domain via system optimizations that could provide uniform temperature distribution. The flow visualization and airflow velocity measurements inside the original refrigerator are performed via Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV). In addition, airflow and temperature distributions are investigated numerically with Ansys Fluent. In order to study the heat transfer inside the aforementioned refrigerator, forced convection theories covering the following cases are applied: closed rectangular cavity representing heat transfer inside the refrigerating compartment. The cavity volume has been represented with finite volume elements and is solved computationally with appropriate momentum and energy equations (Navier-Stokes equations). The 3D model is analyzed as transient, with k-ε turbulence model and SIMPLE pressure-velocity coupling for turbulent flow situation. The results obtained with the 3D numerical simulations are in quite good agreement with the experimental airflow measurements using the SPIV technique. After Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the baseline case, the effects of three parameters: compressor capacity, fan rotational speed and type of shelf (glass or wire) are studied on the energy consumption; pull down time, temperature distributions in the cabinet. For each case, energy consumption based on experimental results is calculated. After the analysis, the main effective parameters for temperature distribution inside a cabin and energy consumption based on CFD simulation are determined and simulation results are supplied for Design of Experiments (DOE) as input data for optimization. The best configuration with minimum energy consumption that provides minimum temperature difference between the shelves inside the cabinet is determined.

Keywords: air distribution, CFD, DOE, energy consumption, experimental, larder cabinet, refrigeration, uniform temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
207 Toy Engagement Patterns in Infants with a Familial History of Autism Spectrum Disorder

Authors: Vanessa Do, Lauren Smith, Leslie Carver

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It is widely known that individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may exhibit sensitivity to stimuli. Even at a young age, they tend to display stimuli-related discomfort in their behavior during play. Play serves a crucial role in a child’s early years as it helps support healthy brain development, socio-emotional skills, and adaptation to their environment There is research dedicated to studying infant preferences for toys, especially in regard to: gender preferences, the advantages of promoting play, and the caregiver’s role in their child’s play routines. However, there is a disproportionate amount of literature examining how play patterns may differ in children with sensory sensitivity, such as children diagnosed with ASD. Prior literature has studied and found supporting evidence that individuals with ASD have deficits in social communication and have increased presence of repetitive behaviors and/or restricted interests, which also display in early childhood play patterns. This study aims to examine potential differences in toy preference between infants with (FH+) and without (FH-) a familial history of ASD ages 6. 9, and 12 months old. More specifically, this study will address the question, “do FH+ infants tend to play more with toys that require less social engagement compared to FH- infants?” Infants and their caregivers were recruited and asked to engage in a free-play session in their homes that lasted approximately 5 minutes. The sessions were recorded and later coded offline for engagement behaviors categorized by toy; each toy that the infants interacted with was coded as belonging to one of 6 categories: sensory (designed to stimulate one or more senses such as light-up toys or musical toys) , construction (e.g., building blocks, rubber suction cups), vehicles (e.g., toy cars), instructional (require steps to accomplish a goal such as flip phones or books), imaginative (e.g., dolls, stuffed animals), and miscellaneous (toys that do not fit into these categories). Toy engagement was defined as the infant looking and touching the toy (ILT) or looking at the toy while their caregiver was holding it (IL-CT). Results reported include/will include the proportion of time the infant was actively engaged with the toy out of the total usable video time per subject — distractions observed during the session were excluded from analysis. Data collection is still ongoing; however, the prediction is that FH+ infants will have higher engagement with sensory and construction toys as they require the least amount of social effort. Furthermore, FH+ infants will have the least engagement with the imaginative toys as prior literature has supported the claim that individuals with ASD have a decreased likelihood to engage in play that requires pretend play and other social skills. Looking at what toys are more or less engaging to FH+ infants is important as it provides significant contributions to their healthy cognitive, social, and emotional development. As play is one of the first ways for a child to understand the complexities of the larger world, the findings of this study may help guide further research into encouraging play with toys that are more engaging and sensory-sensitive for children with ASD.

Keywords: autism engagement, children’s play, early development, free-play, infants, toy

Procedia PDF Downloads 195
206 Hybrid Manufacturing System to Produce 3D Structures for Osteochondral Tissue Regeneration

Authors: Pedro G. Morouço

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One utmost challenge in Tissue Engineering is the production of 3D constructs capable of mimicking the functional hierarchy of native tissues. This is well stated for osteochondral tissue due to the complex mechanical functional unit based on the junction of articular cartilage and bone. Thus, the aim of the present study was to develop a new additive manufacturing system coupling micro-extrusion with hydrogels printing. An integrated system was developed with 2 main features: (i) the printing of up to three distinct hydrogels; (ii) in coordination with the printing of a thermoplastic structural support. The hydrogel printing module was projected with a ‘revolver-like’ system, where the hydrogel selection was made by a rotating mechanism. The hydrogel deposition was then controlled by pressured air input. The use of specific components approved for medical use was incorporated in the material dispensing system (Nordson EDF Optimum® fluid dispensing system). The thermoplastic extrusion modulus enabled the control of required extrusion temperature through electric resistances in the polymer reservoir and the extrusion system. After testing and upgrades, a hydrogel modulus with 3 syringes (3cm3 capacity each), with a pressure range of 0-2.5bar, a rotational speed of 0-5rpm, and working with needles from 200-800µm was obtained. This modulus was successfully coupled to the extrusion system that presented a temperature up to 300˚C, a pressure range of 0-12bar, and working with nozzles from 200-500µm. The applied motor could provide a velocity range 0-2000mm/min. Although, there are distinct printing requirements for hydrogels and polymers, the novel system could develop hybrid scaffolds, combining the 2 moduli. The morphological analysis showed high reliability (n=5) between the theoretical and obtained filament and pore size (350µm and 300µm vs. 342±4µm and 302±3µm, p>0.05, respectively) of the polymer; and multi-material 3D constructs were successfully obtained. Human tissues present very distinct and complex structures regarding their mechanical properties, organization, composition and dimensions. For osteochondral regenerative medicine, a multiphasic scaffold is required as subchondral bone and overlying cartilage must regenerate at the same time. Thus, a scaffold with 3 layers (bone, intermediate and cartilage parts) can be a promising approach. The developed system may give a suitable solution to construct those hybrid scaffolds with enhanced properties. The present novel system is a step-forward regarding osteochondral tissue engineering due to its ability to generate layered mechanically stable implants through the double-printing of hydrogels with thermoplastics.

Keywords: 3D bioprinting, bone regeneration, cartilage regeneration, regenerative medicine, tissue engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
205 Social Value of Travel Time Savings in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors: Richard Sogah

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The significance of transport infrastructure investments for economic growth and development has been central to the World Bank’s strategy for poverty reduction. Among the conventional surface transport infrastructures, road infrastructure is significant in facilitating the movement of human capital goods and services. When transport projects (i.e., roads, super-highways) are implemented, they come along with some negative social values (costs), such as increased noise and air pollution for local residents living near these facilities, displaced individuals, etc. However, these projects also facilitate better utilization of existing capital stock and generate other observable benefits that can be easily quantified. For example, the improvement or construction of roads creates employment, stimulates revenue generation (toll), reduces vehicle operating costs and accidents, increases accessibility, trade expansion, safety improvement, etc. Aside from these benefits, travel time savings (TTSs) which are the major economic benefits of urban and inter-urban transport projects and therefore integral in the economic assessment of transport projects, are often overlooked and omitted when estimating the benefits of transport projects, especially in developing countries. The absence of current and reliable domestic travel data and the inability of replicated models from the developed world to capture the actual value of travel time savings due to the large unemployment, underemployment, and other labor-induced distortions has contributed to the failure to assign value to travel time savings when estimating the benefits of transport schemes in developing countries. This omission of the value of travel time savings from the benefits of transport projects in developing countries poses problems for investors and stakeholders to either accept or dismiss projects based on schemes that favor reduced vehicular operating costs and other parameters rather than those that ease congestion, increase average speed, facilitate walking and handloading, and thus save travel time. Given the complex reality in the estimation of the value of travel time savings and the presence of widespread informal labour activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, we construct a “nationally ranked distribution of time values” and estimate the value of travel time savings based on the area beneath the distribution. Compared with other approaches, our method captures both formal sector workers and individuals/people who work outside the formal sector and hence changes in their time allocation occur in the informal economy and household production activities. The dataset for the estimations is sourced from the World Bank, the International Labour Organization, etc.

Keywords: road infrastructure, transport projects, travel time savings, congestion, Sub-Sahara Africa

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204 Chemical Technology Approach for Obtaining Carbon Structures Containing Reinforced Ceramic Materials Based on Alumina

Authors: T. Kuchukhidze, N. Jalagonia, T. Archuadze, G. Bokuchava

Abstract:

The growing scientific-technological progress in modern civilization causes actuality of producing construction materials which can successfully work in conditions of high temperature, radiation, pressure, speed, and chemically aggressive environment. Such extreme conditions can withstand very few types of materials and among them, ceramic materials are in the first place. Corundum ceramics is the most useful material for creation of constructive nodes and products of various purposes for its low cost, easy accessibility to raw materials and good combination of physical-chemical properties. However, ceramic composite materials have one disadvantage; they are less plastics and have lower toughness. In order to increase the plasticity, the ceramics are reinforced by various dopants, that reduces the growth of the cracks. It is shown, that adding of even small amount of carbon fibers and carbon nanotubes (CNT) as reinforcing material significantly improves mechanical properties of the products, keeping at the same time advantages of alundum ceramics. Graphene in composite material acts in the same way as inorganic dopants (MgO, ZrO2, SiC and others) and performs the role of aluminum oxide inhibitor, as it creates shell, that gives possibility to reduce sintering temperature and at the same time it acts as damper, because scattering of a shock wave takes place on carbon structures. Application of different structural modification of carbon (graphene, nanotube and others) as reinforced material, gives possibility to create multi-purpose highly requested composite materials based on alundum ceramics. In the present work offers simplified technology for obtaining of aluminum oxide ceramics, reinforced with carbon nanostructures, during which chemical modification with doping carbon nanostructures will be implemented in the process of synthesis of final powdery composite – Alumina. In charge doping carbon nanostructures connected to matrix substance with C-O-Al bonds, that provide their homogeneous spatial distribution. In ceramic obtained as a result of consolidation of such powders carbon fragments equally distributed in the entire matrix of aluminum oxide, that cause increase of bending strength and crack-resistance. The proposed way to prepare the charge simplifies the technological process, decreases energy consumption, synthesis duration and therefore requires less financial expenses. In the implementation of this work, modern instrumental methods were used: electronic and optical microscopy, X-ray structural and granulometric analysis, UV, IR, and Raman spectroscopy.

Keywords: ceramic materials, α-Al₂O₃, carbon nanostructures, composites, characterization, hot-pressing

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203 Electret: A Solution of Partial Discharge in High Voltage Applications

Authors: Farhina Haque, Chanyeop Park

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The high efficiency, high field, and high power density provided by wide bandgap (WBG) semiconductors and advanced power electronic converter (PEC) topologies enabled the dynamic control of power in medium to high voltage systems. Although WBG semiconductors outperform the conventional Silicon based devices in terms of voltage rating, switching speed, and efficiency, the increased voltage handling properties, high dv/dt, and compact device packaging increase local electric fields, which are the main causes of partial discharge (PD) in the advanced medium and high voltage applications. PD, which occurs actively in voids, triple points, and airgaps, is an inevitable dielectric challenge that causes insulation and device aging. The aging process accelerates over time and eventually leads to the complete failure of the applications. Hence, it is critical to mitigating PD. Sharp edges, airgaps, triple points, and bubbles are common defects that exist in any medium to high voltage device. The defects are created during the manufacturing processes of the devices and are prone to high-electric-field-induced PD due to the low permittivity and low breakdown strength of the gaseous medium filling the defects. A contemporary approach of mitigating PD by neutralizing electric fields in high power density applications is introduced in this study. To neutralize the locally enhanced electric fields that occur around the triple points, airgaps, sharp edges, and bubbles, electrets are developed and incorporated into high voltage applications. Electrets are electric fields emitting dielectric materials that are embedded with electrical charges on the surface and in bulk. In this study, electrets are fabricated by electrically charging polyvinylidene difluoride (PVDF) films based on the widely used triode corona discharge method. To investigate the PD mitigation performance of the fabricated electret films, a series of PD experiments are conducted on both the charged and uncharged PVDF films under square voltage stimuli that represent PWM waveform. In addition to the use of single layer electrets, multiple layers of electrets are also experimented with to mitigate PD caused by higher system voltages. The electret-based approach shows great promise in mitigating PD by neutralizing the local electric field. The results of the PD measurements suggest that the development of an ultimate solution to the decades-long dielectric challenge would be possible with further developments in the fabrication process of electrets.

Keywords: electrets, high power density, partial discharge, triode corona discharge

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202 Mathematical Modeling of Avascular Tumor Growth and Invasion

Authors: Meitham Amereh, Mohsen Akbari, Ben Nadler

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Cancer has been recognized as one of the most challenging problems in biology and medicine. Aggressive tumors are a lethal type of cancers characterized by high genomic instability, rapid progression, invasiveness, and therapeutic resistance. Their behavior involves complicated molecular biology and consequential dynamics. Although tremendous effort has been devoted to developing therapeutic approaches, there is still a huge need for new insights into the dark aspects of tumors. As one of the key requirements in better understanding the complex behavior of tumors, mathematical modeling and continuum physics, in particular, play a pivotal role. Mathematical modeling can provide a quantitative prediction on biological processes and help interpret complicated physiological interactions in tumors microenvironment. The pathophysiology of aggressive tumors is strongly affected by the extracellular cues such as stresses produced by mechanical forces between the tumor and the host tissue. During the tumor progression, the growing mass displaces the surrounding extracellular matrix (ECM), and due to the level of tissue stiffness, stress accumulates inside the tumor. The produced stress can influence the tumor by breaking adherent junctions. During this process, the tumor stops the rapid proliferation and begins to remodel its shape to preserve the homeostatic equilibrium state. To reach this, the tumor, in turn, upregulates epithelial to mesenchymal transit-inducing transcription factors (EMT-TFs). These EMT-TFs are involved in various signaling cascades, which are often associated with tumor invasiveness and malignancy. In this work, we modeled the tumor as a growing hyperplastic mass and investigated the effects of mechanical stress from surrounding ECM on tumor invasion. The invasion is modeled as volume-preserving inelastic evolution. In this framework, principal balance laws are considered for tumor mass, linear momentum, and diffusion of nutrients. Also, mechanical interactions between the tumor and ECM is modeled using Ciarlet constitutive strain energy function, and dissipation inequality is utilized to model the volumetric growth rate. System parameters, such as rate of nutrient uptake and cell proliferation, are obtained experimentally. To validate the model, human Glioblastoma multiforme (hGBM) tumor spheroids were incorporated inside Matrigel/Alginate composite hydrogel and was injected into a microfluidic chip to mimic the tumor’s natural microenvironment. The invasion structure was analyzed by imaging the spheroid over time. Also, the expression of transcriptional factors involved in invasion was measured by immune-staining the tumor. The volumetric growth, stress distribution, and inelastic evolution of tumors were predicted by the model. Results showed that the level of invasion is in direct correlation with the level of predicted stress within the tumor. Moreover, the invasion length measured by fluorescent imaging was shown to be related to the inelastic evolution of tumors obtained by the model.

Keywords: cancer, invasion, mathematical modeling, microfluidic chip, tumor spheroids

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201 Three-Stage Least Squared Models of a Station-Level Subway Ridership: Incorporating an Analysis on Integrated Transit Network Topology Measures

Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

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200 Statistical Models and Time Series Forecasting on Crime Data in Nepal

Authors: Dila Ram Bhandari

Abstract:

Throughout the 20th century, new governments were created where identities such as ethnic, religious, linguistic, caste, communal, tribal, and others played a part in the development of constitutions and the legal system of victim and criminal justice. Acute issues with extremism, poverty, environmental degradation, cybercrimes, human rights violations, crime against, and victimization of both individuals and groups have recently plagued South Asian nations. Everyday massive number of crimes are steadfast, these frequent crimes have made the lives of common citizens restless. Crimes are one of the major threats to society and also for civilization. Crime is a bone of contention that can create a societal disturbance. The old-style crime solving practices are unable to live up to the requirement of existing crime situations. Crime analysis is one of the most important activities of the majority of intelligent and law enforcement organizations all over the world. The South Asia region lacks such a regional coordination mechanism, unlike central Asia of Asia Pacific regions, to facilitate criminal intelligence sharing and operational coordination related to organized crime, including illicit drug trafficking and money laundering. There have been numerous conversations in recent years about using data mining technology to combat crime and terrorism. The Data Detective program from Sentient as a software company, uses data mining techniques to support the police (Sentient, 2017). The goals of this internship are to test out several predictive model solutions and choose the most effective and promising one. First, extensive literature reviews on data mining, crime analysis, and crime data mining were conducted. Sentient offered a 7-year archive of crime statistics that were daily aggregated to produce a univariate dataset. Moreover, a daily incidence type aggregation was performed to produce a multivariate dataset. Each solution's forecast period lasted seven days. Statistical models and neural network models were the two main groups into which the experiments were split. For the crime data, neural networks fared better than statistical models. This study gives a general review of the applied statistics and neural network models. A detailed image of each model's performance on the available data and generalizability is provided by a comparative analysis of all the models on a comparable dataset. Obviously, the studies demonstrated that, in comparison to other models, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) produced greater prediction. The crime records of 2005-2019 which was collected from Nepal Police headquarter and analysed by R programming. In conclusion, gated recurrent unit implementation could give benefit to police in predicting crime. Hence, time series analysis using GRU could be a prospective additional feature in Data Detective.

Keywords: time series analysis, forecasting, ARIMA, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 139