Search results for: packet loss probability estimation

Authors: Chanchal Biswas, Anrin Bhattacharyya, Gopes Chandra Das, Mahua Ghosh Chaudhuri, Rajib Dey

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Boiler coals with low fixed carbon and higher ash content have always challenged the metallurgists to develop a suitable method for their utilization. In the present study, an attempt is made to establish an energy effective method for the reduction of iron ore fines in the form of nuggets by using ‘Syngas’. By devolatisation (expulsion of volatile matter by applying heat) of boiler coal, gaseous product (enriched with reducing agents like CO, CO2, H2, and CH4 gases) is generated. Iron ore nuggets are reduced by this syngas. For that reason, there is no direct contact between iron ore nuggets and coal ash. It helps to control the minimization of the sulphur intake of the reduced nuggets. A laboratory scale devolatisation furnace designed with reduction facility is evaluated after in-depth studies and exhaustive experimentations including thermo-gravimetric (TG-DTA) analysis to find out the volatile fraction present in boiler grade coal, gas chromatography (GC) to find out syngas composition in different temperature and furnace temperature gradient measurements to minimize the furnace cost by applying one heating coil. The nuggets are reduced in the devolatisation furnace at three different temperatures and three different times. The pre-reduced nuggets are subjected to analytical weight loss calculations to evaluate the extent of reduction. The phase and surface morphology analysis of pre-reduced samples are characterized using X-ray diffractometry (XRD), energy dispersive x-ray spectrometry (EDX), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), carbon sulphur analyzer and chemical analysis method. Degree of metallization of the reduced nuggets is 78.9% by using boiler grade coal. The pre-reduced nuggets with lesser sulphur content could be used in the blast furnace as raw materials or coolant which would reduce the high quality of coke rate of the furnace due to its pre-reduced character. These can be used in Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) as coolant also.

Keywords: alternative ironmaking, coal gasification, extent of reduction, nugget making, syngas based DRI, solid state reduction

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Authors: Amin Asgarian, Ghyslaine McClure

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Proper seismic evaluation of Non-Structural Components (NSCs) mandates an accurate estimation of floor seismic demands (i.e. acceleration and displacement demands). Most of the current international codes incorporate empirical equations to calculate equivalent static seismic force for which NSCs and their anchorage system must be designed. These equations, in general, are functions of component mass and peak seismic acceleration to which NSCs are subjected to during the earthquake. However, recent studies have shown that these recommendations are suffered from several shortcomings such as neglecting the higher mode effect, tuning effect, NSCs damping effect, etc. which cause underestimation of the component seismic acceleration demand. This work is aimed to circumvent the aforementioned shortcomings of code provisions as well as improving them by proposing a simplified, practical, and yet accurate approach to generate acceleration Floor Design Spectra (FDS) directly from corresponding Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) (i.e. design spectra for structural components). A database of 27 Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings in which Ambient Vibration Measurements (AVM) have been conducted. The database comprises 12 low-rise, 10 medium-rise, and 5 high-rise buildings all located in Montréal, Canada and designated as post-disaster buildings or emergency shelters. The buildings are subjected to a set of 20 compatible seismic records and Floor Response Spectra (FRS) in terms of pseudo acceleration are derived using the proposed approach for every floor of the building in both horizontal directions considering 4 different damping ratios of NSCs (i.e. 2, 5, 10, and 20% viscous damping). Several effective parameters on NSCs response are evaluated statistically. These parameters comprise NSCs damping ratios, tuning of NSCs natural period with one of the natural periods of supporting structure, higher modes of supporting structures, and location of NSCs. The entire spectral region is divided into three distinct segments namely short-period, fundamental period, and long period region. The derived roof floor response spectra for NSCs with 5% damping are compared with the 5% damping UHS and procedure are proposed to generate roof FDS for NSCs with 5% damping directly from 5% damped UHS in each spectral region. The generated FDS is a powerful, practical, and accurate tool for seismic design and assessment of acceleration-sensitive NSCs particularly in existing post-critical buildings which have to remain functional even after the earthquake and cannot tolerate any damage to NSCs.

Keywords: earthquake engineering, operational and functional components (OFCs), operational modal analysis (OMA), seismic assessment and design

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Authors: Pallavi Gajjar, Vinayak Malhotra

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Rockets have been known to have played a predominant role in spacecraft propulsion. The quintessential aspect of combustion-related requirements of a rocket engine is the minimization of the surrounding risks/hazards. Over time, it has become imperative to understand the combustion rate variation in presence of external energy source(s). Rocket propulsion represents a special domain of chemical propulsion assisted by high speed flows in presence of acoustics and thermal source(s). Jet noise leads to a significant loss of resources and every year a huge amount of financial aid is spent to prevent it. External heat source(s) induce high possibility of fire risk/hazards which can sufficiently endanger the operation of a space vehicle. Appreciable work had been done with justifiable simplification and emphasis on the linear variation of external energy source(s), which yields good physical insight but does not cater to accurate predictions. Present work experimentally attempts to understand the correlation between inter-energy conversions with the non-linear placement of external energy source(s). The work is motivated by the need to have better fire safety and enhanced combustion. The specific objectives of the work are a) To interpret the related energy transfer for combustion in presence of alternate external energy source(s) viz., thermal and acoustic, b) To fundamentally understand the role of key controlling parameters viz., separation distance, the number of the source(s), selected configurations and their non-linear variation to resemble real-life cases. An experimental setup was prepared using incense sticks as potential fuel and paraffin wax candles as the external energy source(s). The acoustics was generated using frequency generator, and source(s) were placed at selected locations. Non-equidistant parametric experimentation was carried out, and the effects were noted on regression rate changes. The results are expected to be very helpful in offering a new perspective into futuristic rocket designs and safety.

Keywords: combustion, acoustic energy, external energy sources, regression rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Yasmin Nanabhay

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The paper scrutinizes the literature on accountability and non-accountability, and then presents an analysis of a South African case which demonstrated consequences of a lack of accountability. Ethical conduct displayed by members of the public sector is integral to creating a sustainable democratic government, which upholds the constitutional tenets of accountability, transparency and professional ethicality. Furthermore, a true constitutional democracy emphasises and advocates the notion of service leadership that nurtures public participation and engages with citizens in a positive manner. Ethical conduct and accountability in the public sector earns public trust; hence these are key principles in good governance. Yet, in the years since the advent of democracy in South Africa, the government has been plagued by rampant corruption and mal-administration by public officials and politicians in leadership positions. The control measures passed by government in an attempt to ensure ethicality and accountability within the public sector include codes of ethics, rules of conduct and the enactment of legislation. These are intended to shape the mindset of members of the public sector, with the ultimate aim of an efficient, effective, ethical, responsive and accountable public service. The purpose of the paper is to analyse control systems and accountability within the public sector and to present reasons for non-accountability by means of a selected case study. The selected case study is the corruption trial of Jackie Selebi, who served as National Commissioner of the South African Police Service but was dismissed from the post. The reasons for non-accountability in the public sector as well as recommendations based on the findings to enhance accountability will be undertaken. The case study demonstrates the experience and impact of corruption and/or mal-administration, as a result of a lack of accountability, which has contributed to the increasing loss of confidence in political leadership in the country as elsewhere in the world. The literature is applied to the erstwhile National Commissioner of the South African Police Service and President of Interpol, as a case study of non-accountability.

Keywords: corruption, internal control, maladministration, non-compliance, oversight mechanisms, public accountability, public sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Bibiana Betancur-Corredor, Juan Carlos Loaiza, Manfred Denich, Christian Borgemeister

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Alluvial gold mining generates a vast amount of deposits that cover the natural soil and negatively impacts riverbeds and valleys, causing loss of livelihood opportunities for farmers of these regions. In Colombia, more than 79,000 ha are affected by alluvial gold mining, therefore developing strategies to return this land to productivity is of crucial importance for the country. A novel restoration strategy has been created by a mining company, where the land is restored through the establishment of agroforestry systems, in which agricultural crops and livestock are combined to complement reforestation in the area. The purpose of this study is to capture the knowledge of farmers who perform agroforestry in areas with deposits created by alluvial gold mining activities. Semi structured interviews were conducted with farmers with regard to the following: indicators of soil fertility, management practices, soil heterogeneity, pest outbreaks and weeds. In order to compare the perceptions of soil fertility of farmers with physicochemical properties of soils, the farmers were asked to identify spots within their farms that have exhibited good and poor yields. Soil samples were collected in order to correlate farmer’s perceptions with soil physicochemical properties. The findings suggest that the main challenge that farmers face is the identification of fertile soil for crop establishment. They identify the fertile soil through visually analyzing soil color and compaction as well as the use of spontaneous growth of specific plants as indicator of soil fertility. For less fertile areas, nitrogen fixing plants are used as green manure to restore soil fertility for crop establishment. The findings of this study imply that if gold mining is followed by reclamation practices that involve the successful establishment of productive farmlands, agricultural productivity of these lands might improve, increasing food security of the affected communities.

Keywords: agroforestry, knowledge, mining, restoration

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Authors: Ayon Mukherjee

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Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs use the available responses to skew the treatment allocation in a clinical trial in towards treatment found at an interim stage to be best for a given patient's covariate profile. Extensive research has been done on various aspects of CARA designs with the patient responses assumed to follow a parametric model. However, ranges of application for such designs are limited in real-life clinical trials where the responses infrequently fit a certain parametric form. On the other hand, robust estimates for the covariate-adjusted treatment effects are obtained from the parametric assumption. To balance these two requirements, designs are developed which are free from distributional assumptions about the survival responses, relying only on the assumption of proportional hazards for the two treatment arms. The proposed designs are developed by deriving two types of optimum allocation designs, and also by using a distribution function to link the past allocation, covariate and response histories to the present allocation. The optimal designs are based on biased coin procedures, with a bias towards the better treatment arm. These are the doubly-adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) and the efficient randomized adaptive design (ERADE). The treatment allocation proportions for these designs converge to the expected target values, which are functions of the Cox regression coefficients that are estimated sequentially. These expected target values are derived based on constrained optimization problems and are updated as information accrues with sequential arrival of patients. The design based on the link function is derived using the distribution function of a probit model whose parameters are adjusted based on the covariate profile of the incoming patient. To apply such designs, the treatment allocation probabilities are sequentially modified based on the treatment allocation history, response history, previous patients’ covariates and also the covariates of the incoming patient. Given these information, an expression is obtained for the conditional probability of a patient allocation to a treatment arm. Based on simulation studies, it is found that the ERADE is preferable to the DBCD when the main aim is to minimize the variance of the observed allocation proportion and to maximize the power of the Wald test for a treatment difference. However, the former procedure being discrete tends to be slower in converging towards the expected target allocation proportion. The link function based design achieves the highest skewness of patient allocation to the best treatment arm and thus ethically is the best design. Other comparative merits of the proposed designs have been highlighted and their preferred areas of application are discussed. It is concluded that the proposed CARA designs can be considered as suitable alternatives to the traditional balanced randomization designs in survival trials in terms of the power of the Wald test, provided that response data are available during the recruitment phase of the trial to enable adaptations to the designs. Moreover, the proposed designs enable more patients to get treated with the better treatment during the trial thus making the designs more ethically attractive to the patients. An existing clinical trial has been redesigned using these methods.

Keywords: censored response, Cox regression, efficiency, ethics, optimal allocation, power, variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Chien-Song Chyang

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For a fluidized-bed combustion system, excess air ratio (EAR) and superficial velocity are major operating parameters affecting combustion behaviors, and these 2 factors are dependent variables since both fluidizing gas and combustion-supporting agent are air. EAR will change when superficial velocity alters, so that the effect of superficial velocity and/or EAR on combustion behaviors cannot be examined under a specific condition. When stage combustion is executed, one can discuss the effect of EAR under a certain specific superficial velocity, but the flow rate of secondary air and EAR are dependent. In order to investigate the effect of excess air ratio on the combustion behavior of a fluidized combustion system, the flue gas recirculation was adapted by the author in 2007. We can maintain a fixed flow rate of primary gas or secondary gas and change excess oxygen as an independent variable by adjusting the recirculated flue gas appropriately. In another word, we can investigate the effect of excess oxygen on the combustion behavior at a certain primary gas flow, or at a certain hydrodynamics conditions. This technique can be used at a lower turndown ratio to maintain the residual oxygen in the flue gas at a certain value. All the experiments were conducted in a pilot scale fluidized bed combustor. The fluidized bed combustor can be divided into four parts, i.e., windbox, distributor, combustion chamber, and freeboard. The combustion chamber with a cross-section of 0.8 m × 0.4 m was constructed of 6 mm carbon steel lined with 150 mm refractory to reduce heat loss. Above the combustion chamber, the freeboard is 0.64 m in inner diameter. A total of 27 tuyeres with orifices of 5 and 3 mm inside diameters mounted on a 6 mm stainless-steel plate were used as the gas distributor with an open-area-ratio of 0.52%. The Primary gas and secondary gas were fixed at 3 Nm3/min and 1 Nm3/min respectively. The bed temperature was controlled by three heat transfer tubes inserted into the bubbling bed zone. The experimental data shows that bed temperature, CO and NO emissions increase with the stoichiometric oxygen of the primary gas. NO emissions decrease with the stoichiometric oxygen of the primary. Compared with part of primary air substituted with nitrogen, a lower NO emission can be obtained while flue gas recirculation applies as part of primary air.

Keywords: fluidized bed combustion, flue gas circulation, NO emission, recycle

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Authors: Ginpreet Kaur, Mohammad Yasir Usmani, Mohammed Kamil Khan

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Diabetes mellitus is a disease with a high global burden and results in significant morbidity and mortality. In India, the number of people suffering with diabetes is expected to rise from 19 to 57 million in 2025. At present, interest in herbal remedies is growing to reduce the side effects associated with conventional dosage form like oral hypoglycemic agents and insulin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus. Our aim was to investigate the antidiabetic activities of combinatorial extract of N. sativa & C. cassia in Streptozotocin induced type-I Diabetic Rats. Thus, the present study was undertaken to screen postprandial glucose excursion potential through α- glucosidase inhibitory activity (In Vitro) and effect of combinatorial extract of N. sativa & C. cassia in Streptozotocin induced type-I Diabetic Rats (In Vivo). In addition changes in body weight, plasma glucose, lipid profile and kidney profile were also determined. The IC50 values for both extract and Acarbose was calculated by extrapolation method. Combinatorial extract of N. sativa & C. cassia at different dosages (100 and 200 mg/kg orally) and Metformin (50 mg/kg orally) as the standard drug was administered for 28 days and then biochemical estimation, body weights and OGTT (Oral glucose tolerance test) were determined. Histopathological studies were also performed on kidney and pancreatic tissue. In In-Vitro the combinatorial extract shows much more inhibiting effect than the individual extracts. The results reveals that combinatorial extract of N. sativa & C. cassia has shown significant decrease in plasma glucose (p<0.0001), total cholesterol and LDL levels when compared with the STZ group The decreasing level of BUN and creatinine revealed the protection of N. sativa & C. cassia extracts against nephropathy associated with diabetes. Combination of N. sativa & C. cassia significantly improved glucose tolerance to exogenously administered glucose (2 g/kg) after 60, 90 and 120 min interval on OGTT in high dose streptozotocin induced diabetic rats compared with the untreated control group. Histopathological studies shown that treatment with N. sativa & C. cassia extract alone and in combination restored pancreatic tissue integrity and was able to regenerate the STZ damaged pancreatic β cells. Thus, the present study reveals that combination of N. sativa & C. cassia extract has significant α- glucosidase inhibitory activity and thus has great potential as a new source for diabetes treatment.

Keywords: lipid levels, OGTT, diabetes, herbs, glucosidase

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Authors: Adrián Esteban Ortiz-Valera, Angélica Lozano

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In developing countries, informal trade is relevant, but it has been little studied in urban freight transport (UFT) context, although it is a challenge due to the non- contemplated demand it produces and the operational limitations it imposes. Hence, UFT operational improvements (initiatives) and freight attraction models must consider informal trade for developing countries. Afour phasesapproach for characterizing the commercial areas in developing countries (considering both formal and informal establishments) is proposed and applied to ten areas in Mexico City. This characterization is required to calculate real freight trip attraction and then select and/or adapt suitable initiatives. Phase 1 aims the delimitation of the study area. The following information is obtained for each establishment of a potential area: location or geographic coordinates, industrial sector, industrial subsector, and number of employees. Phase 2 characterizes the study area and proposes a set of indicators. This allows a broad view of the operations and constraints of UFT in the study area. Phase 3 classifies the study area according to seven indicators. Each indicator represents a level of conflict in the area due to the presence of formal (registered) and informal establishments on the sidewalks and streets, affecting urban freight transport (and other activities). Phase 4 determines preliminary initiatives which could be implemented in the study area to improve the operation of UFT. The indicators and initiatives relation allows a preliminary initiatives selection. This relation requires to know the following: a) the problems in the area (congested streets, lack of parking space for freight vehicles, etc.); b) the factors which limit initiatives due to informal establishments (reduced streets for freight vehicles; mobility and parking inability during a period, among others), c) the problems in the area due to its physical characteristics; and d) the factors which limit initiatives due to regulations of the area. Several differences in the study areas were observed. As the indicators increases, the areas tend to be less ordered, and the limitations for the initiatives become higher, causing a smaller number of susceptible initiatives. In ordered areas (similar to the commercial areas of developed countries), the current techniquesfor estimating freight trip attraction (FTA) can bedirectly applied, however, in the areas where the level of order is lower due to the presence of informal trade, this is not recommended because the real FTA would not be estimated. Therefore, a technique, which consider the characteristics of the areas in developing countries to obtain data and to estimate FTA, is required. This estimation can be the base for proposing feasible initiatives to such zones. The proposed approach provides a wide view of the needs of the commercial areas of developing countries. The knowledge of these needs would allow UFT´s operation to be improved and its negative impacts to be minimized.

Keywords: freight initiatives, freight trip attraction, informal trade, urban freight transport

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Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

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For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C₃ and C₄ content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Ciwang Teyra, A. H. Y. Lai

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Introduction: Indigenous LGBTQ individuals face with significant life stress such as racial and gender discrimination and microaggressions, which may lead to negative impacts of their mental health. Although studies relevant to Taiwanese indigenous LGBTQpeople gradually increase, most of them are primarily conceptual or qualitative in nature. This research aims to fulfill the gap by offering empirical quantitative evidence, especially investigating the impact of racial and gender microaggressions on mental health among Taiwanese indigenous LGBTQindividuals with an intersectional perspective, as well as examine whether social support can help them to cope with microaggressions. Methods: Participants were (n=200; mean age=29.51; Female=31%, Male=61%, Others=8%). A cross-sectional quantitative design was implemented using data collected in the year 2020. Standardised measurements was used, including Racial Microaggression Scale (10 items), Gender Microaggression Scale (9 items), Social Support Questionnaire-SF(6 items); Patient Health Questionnaire(9-item); and Generalised Anxiety Disorder(7-item). Covariates were age, gender, and perceived economic hardships. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed using Mplus 8.0 with the latent variables of depression and anxiety as outcomes. A main effect SEM model was first established (Model1).To test the moderation effects of perceived social support, an interaction effect model (Model 2) was created with interaction terms entered into Model1. Numerical integration was used with maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the interaction model. Results: Model fit statistics of the Model 1:X2(df)=1308.1 (795), p<.05; CFI/TLI=0.92/0.91; RMSEA=0.06; SRMR=0.06. For Model, the AIC and BIC values of Model 2 improved slightly compared to Model 1(AIC =15631 (Model1) vs. 15629 (Model2); BIC=16098 (Model1) vs. 16103 (Model2)). Model 2 was adopted as the final model. In main effect model 1, racialmicroaggressionand perceived social support were associated with depression and anxiety, but not sexual orientation microaggression(Indigenous microaggression: b = 0.27 for depression; b=0.38 for anxiety; Social support: b=-0.37 for depression; b=-0.34 for anxiety). Thus, an interaction term between social support and indigenous microaggression was added in Model 2. In the final Model 2, indigenous microaggression and perceived social support continues to be statistically significant predictors of both depression and anxiety. Social support moderated the effect of indigenous microaggression of depression (b=-0.22), but not anxiety. All covariates were not statistically significant. Implications: Results indicated that racial microaggressions have a significant impact on indigenous LGBTQ people’s mental health. Social support plays as a crucial role to buffer the negative impact of racial microaggression. To promote indigenous LGBTQ people’s wellbeing, it is important to consider how to support them to develop social support network systems.

Keywords: microaggressions, intersectionality, indigenous population, mental health, social support

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Authors: Richa Shri, Varinder Singh, Kundan Singh Bora, Abhishek Bhanot, Rahul Kumar, Amit Kumar, Ravinder Kaur

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The term ‘neuroprotection’ means preserving/salvaging function and structure of neurons. Neuroprotection is an adjunctive treatment option for neurodegenerative disorders. Oxidative stress is considered a major culprit in neurodegenerative disorders; hence, management strategies include use of antioxidants. Our search for a neuroprotective agent began with Allium cepa L. or onions, (family Amaryllidaceae) - a potent antioxidant. We have investigated the neuroprotective potential of onions in experimental models of ischemic stroke, diabetic neuropathy, neuropathic pain, and dementia. In pre and post-ischemic stroke model, the methanol extract of outer scales of onion bulbs (MEOS) prevented memory loss and motor in-coordination; reduced oxidative stress and cerebral infarct size. This also prevented and ameliorated diabetic neuropathy in mice. The MEOS was fractionated to yield a flavonoid rich fraction (FRF) that successfully reversed ischemia-reperfusion induced neuronal damage, thereby demonstrating that the flavonoids are responsible for the activity. The FRF effectively ameliorated chronic constriction induced neuropathic pain in rats. The FRF was subjected to bioactivity-guided fractionated. It was seen that FRF is more effective as compared to the isolated components probably due to synergism among the constituents (i.e., quercetin and quercetin glucosides) in the FRF. The outer scales of onion bulbs have great potential for prevention as well as for treatment of neuronal disorders. Red onions, with higher amounts of flavonoids as compared to the white onions, produced more significant neuroprotection. Thus, the standardized FRF from the waste material of a commonly used vegetable, especially the red variety, may be developed as a valuable neuroprotective agent.

Keywords: Allium cepa, antioxidant activity, flavonoid rich fraction, neuroprotection

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Authors: Yasamin Rahimi, Ali Kamandi, Abbas Hoseini, Hesam Haddad

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Online/offline chat is a convenient approach in the electronic markets of second-hand products in which potential customers would like to have more information about the products to fill the information gap between buyers and sellers. Online peer in peer market is trying to create artificial intelligence-based systems that help customers ask more informative questions in an easier way. In this article, we introduce a method for the question/answer system that we have developed for the top-ranked electronic market in Iran called Divar. When it comes to secondhand products, incomplete product information in a purchase will result in loss to the buyer. One way to balance buyer and seller information of a product is to help the buyer ask more informative questions when purchasing. Also, the short time to start and achieve the desired result of the conversation was one of our main goals, which was achieved according to A/B tests results. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a method for suggesting questions and answers in the messaging platform of the e-commerce website Divar. Creating such systems is to help users gather knowledge about the product easier and faster, All from the Divar database. We collected a dataset of around 2 million messages in Persian colloquial language, and for each category of product, we gathered 500K messages, of which only 2K were Tagged, and semi-supervised methods were used. In order to publish the proposed model to production, it is required to be fast enough to process 10 million messages daily on CPU processors. In order to reach that speed, in many subtasks, faster and simplistic models are preferred over deep neural models. The proposed method, which requires only a small amount of labeled data, is currently used in Divar production on CPU processors, and 15% of buyers and seller’s messages in conversations is directly chosen from our model output, and more than 27% of buyers have used this model suggestions in at least one daily conversation.

Keywords: smart reply, spell checker, information retrieval, intent detection, question answering

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Simon Shibru, Karen Vancampenhout, Jozef Deckers, Herwig Leirs

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We investigated the population size of the endemic and endangered Swayne’s Hartebeest (Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei) in Nech Sar National Park from 2012 to 2014 and document the major threats why the species is on the verge of local extinction. The park was once known for its abundant density of Swayne’s Hartebeest. We used direct total count methods for a census. We administered semi-structured interviews and open-ended questionnaires with senior scouts who are the member of the local communities. Historical records were obtained to evaluate the population trends of the animals since 1974. The density of the animal decreased from 65 in 1974 to 1 individual per 100 km2 in 2014 with a decline of 98.5% in the past 40 years. The respondents agreed that the conservation status of the park was in its worst condition ever now with only 2 Swayne’s Hartebeest left, with a rapid decline from 4 individuals in 2012 and 12 individuals in 2009. Mainly hunting and habitat loss, but also the unsuitable season of reproduction and shortage of forage as minor factors were identified as threats for a local extinction of the Swayne’s Hartebeests. On the other hand, predation, fire, disease, and ticks were not considered a cause for the declining trend. Hunting happens mostly out of some kind of revenge since the local community thought that they were pushed out from the land because of the presence of Swayne's Hartebeest in the area. Respondents agreed that the revenge action of the local communities was in response to their unwillingness to be displaced from the park in 1982/3. This conflict situation is resulting from the exclusionary wildlife management policy of the country. We conclude that the human interventions in general and illegal hunting, in particular, pushed the Swayne’s Hartebeest to a point of local extinction. Therefore, we recommend inclusive wildlife management approach for continuing existence of the park together with its natural resources so that sustainable use of the resources is in place.

Keywords: hunting, habitat destruction, local extinction, Nech Sar National Park, Swayne’s Hartebeest

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Authors: Rida Pervaiz, Bushra Allah Rakha, Muhammad Sajjad Ansari, Shamim Akhter, Kainat Waseem, Sumiyyah Zuha, Tooba Javed

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Ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) belongs to order Galliformes and family Phasianidae. It has been recognized as the most hunted bird due to its attractive colorful appearance and meat. Loss of habitat and hunting pressure has caused population fluctuations in the native range. Under these circumstances, this species can be conserved by employing ex-situ in vitro conservation techniques. Captive breeding, in combination with semen cryobanking is the most appropriate option to conserve/propagate this species without deteriorating the genetic diversity. Cryopreservation protocols of adequate efficiency are necessary to establish semen cryobanking for a species. Therefore, present study was designed to devise an efficient extender for cryopreservation of ring-necked pheasant semen. For this purpose, a range of extenders (Beltsville Poultry, red fowl, Lake, EK, Tselutin Poultry and Chicken semen extenders) were evaluated for cryopreservation of ring-necked pheasant semen. Semen collected from 10 cocks, diluted in the Beltsville Poultry (BPSE), Red Fowl (RFE), Lake (LE), EK (EKE), Tselutin Poultry (TPE) and Chicken Semen (CSE) extenders and cryopreserved. Glycerol (10%) was added to semen at 4°C, equilibrated for 10 min, filled in 0.5 mL French straws, kept over liquid nitrogen vapors for 10 min, cryopreserved in LN2 and stored. Sperm motility (%), viability (%), live/dead ratio (%), plasma membrane (%) and DNA Integrity (%) were evaluated at post-dilution, post-cooling, post-equilibration and post-thawing stage of cryopreservation. Sperm motility (83.8 ± 3.1; 81.3 ± 3.8; 73.8 ± 2.4; 62.5 ± 1.4), viability (79.0 ± 1.7; 75.5 ± 1.6; 69.5 ± 2.3; 65.5 ± 2.4), live/dead ratio (80.5 ± 5.7; 77.3 ± 4.9; 76.0 ± 2.7; 68.3 ± 2.3), plasma membrane (74.5 ± 2.9; 73.8 ± 3.4; 71.3 ± 2.3; 75.0 ± 3.4) and DNA integrity (78.3 ± 1.7; 73.0 ± 1.2; 68.0 ± 2.0; 63.0 ± 2.5) at all four stages of cryopreservation were recorded higher (P < 0.05) in red fowl extender compared to all experimental extenders. It is concluded that red fowl extender is the best extender for cryopreservation of ring-necked pheasant semen and can be used in establishing cryobank for ex situ conservation.

Keywords: ring-necked pheasant; extenders; cryopreservation; semen quality; DNA integrity

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Authors: Juland D. Salayo

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With numerous innovations introduced in the Philippine educational system, the country’s struggle of materializing its national goal of transforming lives ends with great loss. Many agree that the failure to emerge the integral values of the program, framework and the implementers impedes realization. Employing a descriptive-correlational method, it aimed to determine the value clusters of the Grade 9 teachers as assessed by themselves and by the students, the significant difference of the assessed values and the significant difference on the values based on their profile. Respondents were composed of sixty-nine (69) teachers and three hundred forty (340) students using simple random sampling. Through a survey-questionnaire, the study revealed that the teachers have high regards on their self-reliance, honesty and trustworthiness, obedience, politeness and respect and self-discipline and spirituality. In contrast, they have ranked the following values fairly: justice and fairness, courage, responsibility and punctuality and nationalism and patriotism. Having assessed by the students, they have highly regarded their teachers’ self-reliance, responsibility and punctuality, obedience, politeness and respect and fair play and sportsmanship. On the other hand, the student-respondents made a low assessment on the level of the teachers’ justice and fairness, nationalism and patriotism, honesty and trustworthiness and excellence. Using t-test, it showed that there is a significant difference between the assessments of the respondents. Finally, among the demographic profiles, only civil status and age rejected the hypothesis. The following were recommended: provide educators value-enhancement trainings and conferences, organize value-oriented organizations and activities, and make intensive value-campaigns heightening the low-assessed values. Thus, a Revised Values Education Program (RVEP) was made to further meet the objectives of the program, address the needs of its clienteles, and responding to the demands of both education and society towards excellence in service, social and economic revolution, and constructive national goals which are based from integral values.

Keywords: values, value clusters, values education program, values education, teachers' assessed values

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Authors: Soheir El-Shazly, Gouda Abdel-Gawad, Yasser Salama, Dina Sayed

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Twelve species belonging to genus Carolia Cantraine, 1838 were recorded from nine localities in the Tertiary rocks of the Tethys, Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Provinces. During The Eocene two species were collected from Indian-Pakistani region, two from North Africa (Libya, Tunis and Algeria), one from Jamaica and two from Peru. The Oligocene shows its appearance in North America (Florida) and Argentina. The genus showed its last occurrence in the Miocene rocks of North America (Florida) before its extinction. In Egypt, the genus was diversified in the Eocene rocks and was represented by four species and two subspecies. The paleobiogeographic distribution of Genus Carolia Cantraine, 1838 indicates that it appeared in the Lower Eocene of West Indian Ocean and migrated westward flowing circumtropical Tethys Current to the central Tethyan province, where it appeared in North Africa and continued its dispersal westward to the Atlantic Ocean and arrived Jamaica in the Middle Eocene. It persisted in the Caribbean Sea and appeared later in the Oligocene and Miocene rocks of North America (Florida). Crossing Panama corridor, the genus migrated to the south Eastern Pacific Ocean and was collected from the Middle Eocene of Peru. The appearance of the genus in the Oligocene of the South Atlantic Coast of Argentina may be via South America Seaway or its southward migration from Central America to Austral Basin. The thickening of the upper valve of the genus, after the loss of its byssus to withstand the current action, caused inability of the animal to carry on its vital activity and caused its extinction. The biometric study of Carolia placunoides Cantraine, 1938 from thhe Eocene of Egypt, indicates that the distance between the muscle scars in the upper valve increases with the closure of the byssal notch.

Keywords: Atlantic, carolia, paleobiogeography, tethys

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Authors: Hussain Bohra, Pradyuman Sharma

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This study highlights the significance of Balance Sheet Indicators on the corporate performance in the case of Indian manufacturing companies. Balance sheet indicators show the actual financial health of the company and it helps to the external investors to choose the right company for their investment and it also help to external financing agency to give easy finance to the manufacturing companies. The period of study is 2000 to 2014 for 813 manufacturing companies for which the continuous data is available throughout the study period. The data is collected from PROWESS data base maintained by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. Panel data methods like fixed effect and random effect methods are used for the analysis. The Likelihood Ratio test, Lagrange Multiplier test and Hausman test results proof the suitability of the fixed effect model for the estimation. Return on assets (ROA) is used as the proxy to measure corporate performance. ROA is the best proxy to measure corporate performance as it already used by the most of the authors who worked on the corporate performance. ROA shows return on long term investment projects of firms. Different ratios like Current Ratio, Debt-equity ratio, Receivable turnover ratio, solvency ratio have been used as the proxies for the Balance Sheet Indicators. Other firm specific variable like firm size, and sales as the control variables in the model. From the empirical analysis, it was found that all selected financial ratios have significant and positive impact on the corporate performance. Firm sales and firm size also found significant and positive impact on the corporate performance. To check the robustness of results, the sample was divided on the basis of different ratio like firm having high debt equity ratio and low debt equity ratio, firms having high current ratio and low current ratio, firms having high receivable turnover and low receivable ratio and solvency ratio in the form of firms having high solving ratio and low solvency ratio. We find that the results are robust to all types of companies having different form of selected balance sheet indicators ratio. The results for other variables are also in the same line as for the whole sample. These findings confirm that Balance sheet indicators play as significant role on the corporate performance in India. The findings of this study have the implications for the corporate managers to focus different ratio to maintain the minimum expected level of performance. Apart from that, they should also maintain adequate sales and total assets to improve corporate performance.

Keywords: balance sheet, corporate performance, current ratio, panel data method

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Authors: Lars Andersen

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The development of design and engineering in large construction projects are characterized by an increased degree of flattening out of formal structures, extended use of parallel and integrated processes (‘Integrated Concurrent Engineering’) and an increased number of expert disciplines. The integration process is based on ongoing collaborations, dialogues, intercommunication and comments on each other’s work (iterations). This process based on reciprocal communication between actors and disciplines triggers value creation. However, communication between equals is not in itself sufficient to create effective decision making. The complexity of the process and time pressure contribute to an increased risk of a deficit of decisions and loss of process control. The paper refers to a study that aims at developing a resilient decision-making system that does not come in conflict with communication processes based on equality between the disciplines in the process. The study includes the construction of a hospital, following the phases design, engineering and physical building. The Research method is a combination of formative process research, process tracking and phenomenological analyses. The study tracked challenges and problems in the building process to the projection substrates (drawing and models) and further to the organization of the engineering and design phase. A comparative analysis of traditional and new ways of organizing the projecting made it possible to uncover an implicit material order or structure in the process. This uncovering implied a development of a material process perspective. According to this perspective the complexity of the process is rooted in material-functional differentiation. This differentiation presupposes a structuring material (the skeleton of the building) that coordinates the other types of material. Each expert discipline´s competence is related to one or a set of materials. The architect, consulting engineer construction etc. have their competencies related to structuring material, and inherent in this; coordination competence. When dialogues between the disciplines concerning the coordination between them do not result in agreement, the disciplines with responsibility for the structuring material decide the interface issues. Based on these premises, this paper develops a self-organized expert-driven interdisciplinary decision-making system.

Keywords: collaboration, complexity, design, engineering, materiality

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Authors: David Guillermo Piedrahita Marquez, Hector Suarez Mahecha, Jairo Humberto Lopez

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The propolis are substances obtained from the beehive have an action against pathogens, prooxidant substances and free radicals because of its polyphenols content, this has motivated the use of these compounds in the food and pharmaceutical industries. However, due to their organoleptic properties and their ability to react with other compounds, their application has been limited; therefore, the objective of this research was to propose a mechanism to protect propolis and mitigate side effects granted by its components. To achieve the stated purpose ethanolic extracts of propolis (EEP) from three samples from Santander were obtained and their antioxidant and antimicrobial activity were evaluated in order to choose the extract with the biggest potential. Subsequently mixtures of the extract with maltodextrin were prepared by spray drying varying concentration and temperature, finally the yield, the physicochemical, and antioxidant properties of the products were measured. It was concluded that Socorro propolis was the best for the production of microencapsulated due to their activity against pathogenic strains, for its large percentage of DPPH radical inactivation and for its high phenolic content. In spray drying, the concentration of bioactive had a greater impact than temperature and the conditions set allowed a good performance and the production of particles with high antioxidant potential and little chance of proliferation of microorganisms. Also, it was concluded that the best conditions that allowed us to obtain the best particles were obtained after drying a mixture 1:2 ( EEP: Maltodextrin), besides the concentration is the most important variable in the spray drying process, at the end we obtained particles of different sizes and shape and the uniformity of the surface depend on the temperature. After watching the previously mentioned microparticles by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) it was concluded that most of the particles produced during the spray dry process had a spherical shape and presented agglomerations due to the moisture content of the ethanolic extracts of propolis (EEP), the morphology of the microparticles contributed to the stability of the final product and reduce the loss of total phenolic content.

Keywords: spray drying, propolis, maltodextrin, encapsulation, scanning electron microscopy

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Authors: Isidro Perez, Maryam Nazari

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Numerous earthquakes, which have taken place across the world, led to catastrophic damage and collapse of structures (e.g., 1971 San Fernando; 1995 Kobe-Japan; and 2010 Chile earthquakes). Engineers are constantly studying methods to moderate the effect this phenomenon has on structures to further reduce damage, costs, and ultimately to provide life safety to occupants. However, there are regions where structures, cities, or water reservoirs are built near fault lines. When an earthquake occurs near the fault lines, they can be categorized as near-field earthquakes. In contrary, a far-field earthquake occurs when the region is further away from the seismic source. A near-field earthquake generally has a higher initial peak resulting in a larger seismic response, when compared to a far-field earthquake ground motion. These larger responses may result in serious consequences in terms of structural damage which can result in a high risk for the public’s safety. Unfortunately, the response of structures subjected to near-field records are not properly reflected in the current building design specifications. For example, in ASCE 7-10, the design response spectrum is mostly based on the far-field design-level earthquakes. This may result in the catastrophic damage of structures that are not properly designed for near-field earthquakes. This research investigates the knowledge that the effect of near-field earthquakes has on the response of structures. To fully examine this topic, a structure was designed following the current seismic building design specifications, e.g. ASCE 7-10 and ACI 318-14, being analytically modeled, utilizing the SAP2000 software. Next, utilizing the FEMA P695 report, several near-field and far-field earthquakes were selected, and the near-field earthquake records were scaled to represent the design-level ground motions. Upon doing this, the prototype structural model, created using SAP2000, was subjected to the scaled ground motions. A Linear Time History Analysis and Pushover analysis were conducted on SAP2000 for evaluation of the structural seismic responses. On average, the structure experienced an 8% and 1% increase in story drift and absolute acceleration, respectively, when subjected to the near-field earthquake ground motions. The pushover analysis was ran to find and aid in properly defining the hinge formation in the structure when conducting the nonlinear time history analysis. A near-field ground motion is characterized by a high-energy pulse, making it unique to other earthquake ground motions. Therefore, pulse extraction methods were used in this research to estimate the maximum response of structures subjected to near-field motions. The results will be utilized in the generation of a design spectrum for the estimation of design forces for buildings subjected to NF ground motions.

Keywords: near-field, pulse, pushover, time-history

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Authors: Vikas Kumar, Kailash Chandra, Kaomud Tyagi

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The insect order Thysanoptera includes small insects commonly called thrips. As insect vectors, only thrips are capable of Tospoviruses transmission (genus Tospovirus, family Bunyaviridae) affecting various crops. Currently, fifteen species of subfamily Thripinae (Thripidae) have been reported as vectors for tospoviruses. Frankliniella schultzei, which is reported as act as a vector for at least five tospovirses, have been suspected to be a species complex with more than one species. It is one of the historical unresolved issues where, two species namely, F. schultzei Trybom and F. sulphurea Schmutz were erected from South Africa and Srilanaka respectively. These two species were considered to be valid until 1968 when sulphurea was treated as colour morph (pale form) and synonymised under schultzei (dark form) However, these two have been considered as valid species by some of the thrips workers. Parallel studies have indicated that brown form of schultzei is a vector for tospoviruses while yellow form is a non-vector. However, recent studies have shown that yellow populations have also been documented as vectors. In view of all these facts, it is highly important to have a clear understanding whether these colour forms represent true species or merely different populations with different vector carrying capacities and whether there is some hidden diversity in 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex'. In this study, we aim to study the 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex' with molecular spectacles with DNA data from India and Australia and Africa. A total of fifty-five specimens was collected from diverse locations in India and Australia. We generated molecular data using partial fragments of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene (mtCOI) and 28S rRNA gene. For COI dataset, there were seventy-four sequences, out of which data on fifty-five was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. All the four different tree construction methods: neighbor-joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis, yielded the same tree topology and produced five cryptic species with high genetic divergence. For, rDNA, there were forty-five sequences, out of which data on thirty-nine was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. The four tree building methods yielded four cryptic species with high bootstrap support value/posterior probability. Here we could not retrieve one cryptic species from South Africa as we could not generate data on rDNA from South Africa and sequence for rDNA from African region were not available in the database. The results of multiple species delimitation methods (barcode index numbers, automatic barcode gap discovery, general mixed Yule-coalescent, and Poisson-tree-processes) also supported the phylogenetic data and produced 5 and 4 Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) for mtCOI and 28S dataset respectively. These results of our study indicate the likelihood that F. sulphurea may be a valid species, however, more morphological and molecular data is required on specimens from type localities of these two species and comparison with type specimens.

Keywords: DNA barcoding, species complex, thrips, species delimitation

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Authors: H. Hruschka

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This paper presents the first comparison of the performance of the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net on binary market basket data relative to binary factor analysis and the two best-known topic models, namely Dirichlet allocation and the correlated topic model. This comparison shows that the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net are superior to both binary factor analysis and topic models. Managerial implications that differ between the investigated models are treated as well. The restricted Boltzmann machine is defined as joint Boltzmann distribution of hidden variables and observed variables (purchases). It comprises one layer of observed variables and one layer of hidden variables. Note that variables of the same layer are not connected. The comparison also includes deep belief nets with three layers. The first layer is a restricted Boltzmann machine based on category purchases. Hidden variables of the first layer are used as input variables by the second-layer restricted Boltzmann machine which then generates second-layer hidden variables. Finally, in the third layer hidden variables are related to purchases. A public data set is analyzed which contains one month of real-world point-of-sale transactions in a typical local grocery outlet. It consists of 9,835 market baskets referring to 169 product categories. This data set is randomly split into two halves. One half is used for estimation, the other serves as holdout data. Each model is evaluated by the log likelihood for the holdout data. Performance of the topic models is disappointing as the holdout log likelihood of the correlated topic model – which is better than Dirichlet allocation - is lower by more than 25,000 compared to the best binary factor analysis model. On the other hand, binary factor analysis on its own is clearly surpassed by both the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net whose holdout log likelihoods are higher by more than 23,000. Overall, the deep belief net performs best. We also interpret hidden variables discovered by binary factor analysis, the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net. Hidden variables characterized by the product categories to which they are related differ strongly between these three models. To derive managerial implications we assess the effect of promoting each category on total basket size, i.e., the number of purchased product categories, due to each category's interdependence with all the other categories. The investigated models lead to very different implications as they disagree about which categories are associated with higher basket size increases due to a promotion. Of course, recommendations based on better performing models should be preferred. The impressive performance advantages of the restricted Boltzmann machine and the deep belief net suggest continuing research by appropriate extensions. To include predictors, especially marketing variables such as price, seems to be an obvious next step. It might also be feasible to take a more detailed perspective by considering purchases of brands instead of purchases of product categories.

Keywords: binary factor analysis, deep belief net, market basket analysis, restricted Boltzmann machine, topic models

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Authors: Margarita Gáfaro, Karelys Guzmán, Paola Poveda

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This paper establishes the theoretical aspects that explain the barriers to accessing credit for small agricultural producers in developing countries and identifies successful policy experiences to mitigate them. We will test two hypotheses. The first one is that information asymmetries, high transaction costs and high-risk exposure limit the supply of credit to small agricultural producers in developing countries. The second hypothesis is that low levels of financial education and productivity and high uncertainty about the returns of agricultural activity limit the demand for credit. To test these hypotheses, a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on access to rural credit in developing countries will be carried out. The first part of this review focuses on theoretical models that incorporate information asymmetries in the credit market and analyzes the interaction between these asymmetries and the characteristics of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Some of the characteristics we will focus on are the absence of collateral, the underdevelopment of the judicial systems and insurance markets, and the high dependence on climatic factors of production technologies. The second part of this review focuses on the determinants of credit demand by small agricultural producers, including the profitability of productive projects, security conditions, risk aversion or loss, financial education, and cognitive biases, among others. There are policies that focus on resolving these supply and demand constraints and managing to improve credit access. Therefore, another objective of this paper is to present a review of effective policies that have promoted access to credit for smallholders in the world. For this, information available in policy documents will be collected. This information will be complemented by interviews with officials in charge of the design and execution of these policies in a subset of selected countries. The information collected will be analyzed in light of the conceptual framework proposed in the first two parts of this section. The barriers to access to credit that each policy attempts to resolve and the factors that could explain its effectiveness will be identified.

Keywords: agricultural economics, credit access, smallholder, developing countries

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Madeleine Cox

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Objective; analyse patient choices in management of first trimester miscarriage, rates of complications including repeat procedure. Design: all first trimester miscarriages from a tertiary institution on the Gold Coast in a 6 month time frame (July to December 2021) were reviewed, including choice of management, histopathology, any representations or admissions, and potential complications. Results: a total of 224 first trimester miscarriages were identified. Of these, 183 (81%) opted to have surgical management in the first instance. Of the remaining patients, 18 (8%) opted to have medical management, and 28 (12.5%) opted to have expectant management. In total, 33(15%) patients required a repeat treatment for retained products. 1 had medical management for a small volume PROC post suction curette. A significant number of these patients initially opted for medical management but then elected to have shorter follow up than usual and went on to have retained products noted. 5 women who had small volumes of RPOC post medical or surgical management had repeat suction curette, however, had very small volumes of products on scan and on curette and may have had a good result with repeated misoprostol administration. It is important to note that whilst a common procedure, suction curettes are not without risk. 2 women had significant blood loss of 1L and 1.5L. A third women had a uterine perforation, a rare but recognised complication, she went on to require a laparoscopy which identified a small serosal bowel injury which was closed by the colorectal team. Conclusion: Management of first trimester miscarriage should be guided by patient preference. It is important to be able to provide patients with their choice of management, however, it is also important to have a good understanding of the risks of each management choice, chances of repeated procedure, appropriate time frame for follow up. Women who choose to undertake medical or expectant management should be supported through this time, with appropriate time frame between taking misoprostol and repeat scan so that the true effects can be evaluated. Patients returning for scans within 2-3 days are more likely to be booked for further surgery, however, may reflect patients who did not have adequate counselling or simply changed their mind on their preferred management options.

Keywords: miscarriage, gynaecology, obstetrics, first trimester

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Authors: Sher Mohammed, Purushottam Lal, Pawan K. Kasera

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The Thar Desert of Rajasthan covers a wide geographical area spreading between 23.3° to 30.12°, North latitude and 69.3◦ to 76◦ Eastern latitudes; having a unique spectrum of arid zone vegetation. This desert is spreading over 12 districts having a rich source of economically important/threatened plant diversity interacting and growing with adverse climatic conditions of the area. Due to variable geological, physiographic, climatic, edaphic and biotic factors, the arid zone medicinal flora exhibit a wide collection of angiosperm families. The herbal diversity of this arid region is medicinally important in household remedies among tribal communities as well as in traditional systems. The on-going increasing disturbances in natural ecosystems are due to climatic and biological, including anthropogenic factors. The unique flora and subsequently dependent faunal diversity of the desert ecosystem is losing its biotic potential. A large number of plants have no future unless immediate steps are taken to arrest the causes, leading to their biological improvement. At present the potential loss in ecological amplitude of various genera and species is making several plant species as red listed plants of arid zone vegetation such as Commmiphora wightii, Tribulus rajasthanensis, Calligonum polygonoides, Ephedra foliata, Leptadenia reticulata, Tecomella undulata, Blepharis sindica, Peganum harmala, Sarcostoma vinimale, etc. Mostly arid zone species are under serious pressure against prevailing ecosystem factors to continuation their life cycles. Genetic, molecular, cytological, biochemical, metabolic, reproductive, germination etc. are the several points where the floral diversity of the arid zone area is facing severe ecological influences. So, there is an urgent need to conserve them. There are several opportunities in the field to carry out remarkable work at particular levels to protect the native plants in their natural habitat instead of only their in vitro multiplication.

Keywords: ecology, evaluation, xerophytes, economically, threatened plants, conservation

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Authors: Ruairi J. McMillan

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Introduction: This critical analysis aims to ascertain how well neuroanatomical aetiologies are communicated within 20 case reports of aphasia. Neuroanatomical visualisations based on dissected brain specimens were produced and combined with white matter tract and vascular taxonomies of function in order to address the most consistently underreported features found within the aphasic case study reports. Together, these approaches are intended to integrate aphasiological knowledge from the past 20 years with aphasiological diagnostics, and to act as prototypal resources for both researchers and clinical professionals. The medico-legal precedent for aphasia diagnostics under Canadian, US and UK case law and the neuroimaging/neurological diagnostics relative to the functional capacity of aphasic patients are discussed in relation to the major findings of the literary analysis, neuroimaging protocols in clinical use today, and the neuroanatomical aetiologies of different aphasias. Basic Methodology: Literature searches of relevant scientific databases (e.g, OVID medline) were carried out using search terms such as aphasia case study (year) & stroke induced aphasia case study. A series of 7 diagnostic reporting criteria were formulated, and the resulting case studies were scored / 7 alongside clinical stroke criteria. In order to focus on the diagnostic assessment of the patient’s condition, only the case report proper (not the discussion) was used to quantify results. Statistical testing established if specific reporting criteria were associated with higher overall scores and potentially inferable increases in quality of reporting. Statistical testing of whether criteria scores were associated with an unclear/adjusted diagnosis were also tested, as well as the probability of a given criterion deviating from an expected estimate. Major Findings: The quantitative analysis of neuroanatomically driven diagnostics in case studies of aphasia revealed particularly low scores in the connection of neuroanatomical functions to aphasiological assessment (10%), and in the inclusion of white matter tracts within neuroimaging or assessment diagnostics (30%). Case studies which included clinical mention of white matter tracts within the report itself were distributed among higher scoring cases, as were case studies which (as clinically indicated) related the affected vascular region to the brain parenchyma of the language network. Concluding Statement: These findings indicate that certain neuroanatomical functions are integrated less often within the patient report than others, despite a precedent for well-integrated neuroanatomical aphasiology also being found among the case studies sampled, and despite these functions being clinically essential in diagnostic neuroimaging and aphasiological assessment. Therefore, ultimately the integration and specificity of aetiological neuroanatomy may contribute positively to the capacity and autonomy of aphasic patients as well as their clinicians. The integration of a full aetiological neuroanatomy within the reporting of aphasias may improve patient outcomes and sustain autonomy in the event of medico-ethical investigation.

Keywords: aphasia, language network, functional neuroanatomy, aphasiological diagnostics, medico-legal ethics

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Authors: Cherif Y., Ghariani R., Derbal S., Farhati S., Ben Dahmen F., Abdallah M.

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Introduction: Tuberculosis (TBC) is a frequent infection and is still a major public health problem in Tunisia. The aim of this work is to focus on diagnostic and therapeutic characteristics of TBC in patients referred to our internal medicine department. Patients and Methods: The study was retrospective and descriptive of a cohort of consecutive cases treated from January 2016 to December 2019, collecting patients with latent or patent TBC. Twenty-eight medical records of adults diagnosed with TBC were reviewed. Results: Twenty-eight patients, including 18 women and 10 men, were diagnosed with TBC. Their mean age is 48 years (range: 22-78 years). Five patients have a medical history of diabetes mellitus, 1 patient was followed for systemic lupus erythematosus treated with corticosteroids and immunosuppressant drugs, and another was treated with corticosteroids for Mac Duffy syndrome. The TBC is latent in 12 cases and patent in 16 cases. The most common symptoms were fever and weight loss and were found in 10 cases, a cough in 2 cases, sputum in 3 cases, lymph nodes in 4 cases, erythema nodosum in 2 cases, and neurological signs in 3 cases. Lymphopenia is noticed in 3 cases and a biological inflammatory syndrome in 18 of the cases. The purified protein derivate reaction was positive in 17 cases, anergic in 3 cases, negative in 5 cases, and not done in 3 cases. The acid-fast bacilli stain culture was strongly positive in one patient. The histopathological study was conclusive in 11 patients and showed granulomatosis with caseous necrosis. TBC was pulmonary in 7 patients, lymph node in 7 cases, peritoneal in 7 cases, digestive in 1 case, neuromeningeal in 3 cases, and thyroïd in 1 case. Seven patients had multifocal TBC. All the patients received anti-tuberculosis treatment with a mean duration of 8 months with no failure or relapse with an average follow-up time of 10.58 months. Conclusion: Diagnosis and management of TBC remain essential to avoid serious complications. The survey is necessary to ensure timely detection and treatment of infected adults to decrease its incidence. The best treatment remains preventive through vaccination and improving social and economic conditions.

Keywords: tuberculosis, infection, autoimmune disease, granulomatosis

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Authors: Showkat Ahmad Bhat, Iqra Reyaz, Falaque ul Afshan, Ahmad Arif Reshi, Muneeb U. Rehman, Manzoor R. Mir, Sabhiya Majid, Sonallah, Sheikh Bilal, Ishraq Hussain

Abstract:

Background: Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer and the second leading cause of worldwide cancer-related deaths, with a wide variation in incidence rates across different geographical areas. The current view of cancer is that a malignancy arises from a transformation of the genetic material of a normal cell, followed by successive mutations and by chain of alterations in genes such as DNA repair genes, oncogenes, Tumor suppressor genes. Minerals are necessary for the functioning of several transcriptional factors, proteins that recognize certain DNA sequences and have been found to play a role in gastric cancer. Material Methods:The present work was a case control study and its aim was to ascertain the role of minerals and promoter hypermethylation of CpG islands of DAP-K gene in Gastric cancer patients among the Kashmiri population. Serum was extracted from all the samples and mineral estimation was done by AAS from serum, DNA was also extracted and was modified using bisulphite modification kit. Methylation-specific PCR was used for the analysis of the promoter hypermethylation status of DAP-K gene. The epigenetic analysis revealed that unlike other high risk regions, Kashmiri population has a different promoter hypermethylation profile of DAP-K gene and has different mineral profile. Results: In our study mean serum copper levels were significantly different for the two genders (p<0.05), while as no significant differences were observed for iron and zinc levels. In Methylation-specific PCR the methylation status of the promoter region of DAP-K gene was as 67.50% (27/40) of the gastric cancer tissues showed methylated DAP-K promoter and 32.50% (13/40) of the cases however showed unmethylated DAP-K promoter. Almost all 85% (17/20) of the histopathologically confirmed normal tissues showed unmethylated DAP-K promoter except only in 3 cases where DAP-K promoter was found to be methylated. The association of promoter hypermethylation with gastric cancer was evaluated by χ2 (Chi square) test and was found to be significant (P=0.0006). Occurrence of DAP-K methylation was found to be unequally distributed in males and females with more frequency in males than in females but the difference was not statistically significant (P =0.7635, Odds ratio=1.368 and 95% C.I=0.4197 to 4.456). When the frequency of DAP-K promoter methylation was compared with clinical staging of the disease, DAP-K promoter methylation was found to be certainly higher in Stage III/IV (85.71%) compared to Stage I/ II (57.69%) but the difference was not statistically significant (P =0.0673). These results suggest that DAP-K aberrant promoter hypermethylation in Kashmiri population contributes to the process of carcinogenesis in Gastric cancer and is reportedly one of the commonest epigenetic changes in the development of Gastric cancer.

Keywords: gastric cancer, minerals, AAS, hypermethylation, CpG islands, DAP-K gene

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