Search results for: atmospheric transport modeling

Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

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Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Elena Vinogradova, Aleksei Pleshakov, Aleksei Yakovlev

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During the flight of a supersonic aircraft under various conditions (altitude, Mach, etc.), it becomes necessary to coordinate the operating modes of the air intake and engine. On the supersonic aircraft, it’s been done by changing various control factors (the angle of rotation of the wedge panels and etc.). This paper investigates the possibility of using modern optimization methods to determine the optimal position of the supersonic air intake wedge panels in order to maximize the total pressure recovery coefficient. Modern software allows us to conduct auto-optimization, which determines the optimal position of the control elements of the investigated product to achieve its maximum efficiency. In this work, the flow in the supersonic aircraft inlet has investigated and optimized the operation of the flaps of the supersonic inlet in an aircraft in a 2-D setting. This work has done using ANSYS CFX software. The supersonic aircraft inlet is a flat adjustable external compression inlet. The braking surface is made in the form of a three-stage wedge. The IOSO NM software package was chosen for optimization. Change in the position of the panels of the input device is carried out by changing the angle between the first and second steps of the three-stage wedge. The position of the rest of the panels is changed automatically. Within the framework of the presented work, the position of the moving air intake panel was optimized under fixed flight conditions of the aircraft under a certain engine operating mode. As a result of the numerical modeling, the distribution of total pressure losses was obtained for various cases of the engine operation, depending on the incoming flow velocity and the flight altitude of the aircraft. The results make it possible to obtain the maximum total pressure recovery coefficient under given conditions. Also, the initial geometry was set with a certain angle between the first and second wedge panels. Having performed all the calculations, as well as the subsequent optimization of the aircraft input device, it can be concluded that the initial angle was set sufficiently close to the optimal angle.

Keywords: optimal angle, optimization, supersonic air intake, total pressure recovery coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Dmitry Aron

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Major radiation accidents carry not only the potential risks of negative consequences for public health due to exposure but also because of large-scale emergency measures were taken by authorities to protect the population, which can lead to unreasonable social and economic damage. It is technically difficult, as a rule, to assess the possible costs and damages from decisions on evacuation or resettlement of residents in the shortest possible time, since it requires specially prepared information systems containing relevant information on demographic, economic parameters and incoming data on radiation conditions. Foreign observers also face the difficulties in assessing the consequences of an accident in a foreign territory, since they usually do not have official and detailed statistical data on the territory of foreign state beforehand. Also, they can suppose the application of unofficial data from open Internet sources is an unreliable and overly labor-consuming procedure. This paper describes an approach to prompt creation of relational database that contains detailed actual data on economics, demographics and radiation situation at the Fukushima Prefecture during the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident, received by the author from open Internet sources. This database was developed and used to assess the number of evacuated population, radiation doses, expected financial losses and other parameters of the affected areas. The costs for the areas with temporarily evacuated and long-term resettled population were investigated, and the radiological and economic effectiveness of the measures taken to protect the population was estimated. Some of the results are presented in the article. The study showed that such a tool for analyzing the consequences of radiation accidents can be prepared in a short space of time for the entire territory of Japan, and it can serve for the modeling of social and economic consequences for hypothetical accidents for any nuclear power plant in its territory.

Keywords: Fukushima, radiation accident, emergency measures, database

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Sh. Sousani, Z. Shadrokh, M. Hofbauerová, J. Kollár, M. Jergel, P. Nádaždy, M. Omastová, E. Majková

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Perovskite quantum dots (PQDs) have the potential to increase the performance of the perovskite solar cell (PSCs). The integration of PQDs into PSCs can extend the absorption range and enhance photon harvesting and device efficiency. In addition, PQDs can stabilize the device structure by passivating surface defects and traps in the perovskite layer and enhance its stability. The integration of PQDs into PSCs is strongly affected by the type of ligands on the surface of PQDs. The ligands affect the charge transport properties of PQDs, as well as the formation of well-defined interfaces and stability of PSCs. In this work, the CsPbBr₃ QDs were synthesized by the conventional hot-injection method using cesium oleate, PbBr₂ and two different ligands, namely oleic acid (OA) oleylamine (OAm) and didodecyldimethylammonium bromide (DDAB). The STEM confirmed regular shape and relatively monodisperse cubic structure with an average size of about 10-14 nm of the prepared CsPbBr₃ QDs. Further, the photoluminescent (PL) properties of the PQDs/perovskite bilayer with the ligand OA, OAm and DDAB were studied. For this purpose, ITO/PQDs as well as ITO/PQDs/MAPI perovskite structures were prepared by spin coating and the effect of the ligand and oxygen plasma treatment was analyzed. The plasma treatment of the PQDs layer could be beneficial for the deposition of the MAPI perovskite layer and the formation of a well-defined PQDs/MAPI interface. The absorption edge in UV-Vis absorption spectra for OA, OAm CsPbBr₃ QDs is placed around 513 nm (the band gap 2.38 eV); for DDAB CsPbBr₃ QDs, it is located at 490 nm (the band gap 2.33 eV). The photoluminescence (PL) spectra of CsPbBr₃ QDs show two peaks located around 514 nm (503 nm) and 718 nm (708 nm) for OA, OAm (DDAB). The peak around 500 nm corresponds to the PL of PQDs, and the peak close to 710 nm belongs to the surface states of PQDs for both types of ligands. These surface states are strongly affected by the O₃ plasma treatment. For PQDs with DDAB ligand, the O₃ exposure (5, 10, 15 s) results in the blue shift of the PQDs peak and a non-monotonous change of the amplitude of the surface states' peak. For OA, OAm ligand, the O₃ exposition did not cause any shift of the PQDs peak, and the intensity of the PL peak related to the surface states is lower by one order of magnitude in comparison with DDAB, being affected by O₃ plasma treatment. The PL results indicate the possibility of tuning the position of the PL maximum by the ligand of the PQDs. Similar behavior of the PQDs layer was observed for the ITO/QDs/MAPI samples, where an additional strong PL peak at 770 nm coming from the perovskite layer was observed; for the sample with PQDs with DDAB ligands, a small blue shift of the perovskite PL maximum was observed independently of the plasma treatment. These results suggest the possibility of affecting the PL maximum position and the surface states of the PQDs by the combination of a suitable ligand and the O₃ plasma treatment.

Keywords: perovskite quantum dots, photoluminescence, O₃ plasma., Perovskite Solar Cells

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Sh. Sousani, Z. Shadrokh, M. Hofbauerová, J. Kollár, M. Jergel, P. Nádaždy, M. Omastová, E. Majková

Abstract:

Perovskite quantum dots (PQDs) have the potential to increase the performance of the perovskite solar cells (PSCs). The integration of PQDs into PSCs can extend the absorption range and enhance photon harvesting and device efficiency. In addition, PQDs can stabilize the device structure by passivating surface defects and traps in the perovskite layer and enhance its stability. The integration of PQDs into PSCs is strongly affected by the type of ligands on the surface of PQDs. The ligands affect the charge transport properties of PQDs, as well as the formation of well-defined interfaces and stability of PSCs. In this work, the CsPbBr₃ QDs were synthesized by the conventional hot-injection method using cesium oleate, PbBr₂, and two different ligands, namely oleic acid (OA)@oleylamine (OAm) and didodecyldimethylammonium bromide (DDAB). The STEM confirmed regular shape and relatively monodisperse cubic structure with an average size of about 10-14 nm of the prepared CsPbBr₃ QDs. Further, the photoluminescent (PL) properties of the PQDs/perovskite bilayer with the ligand OA@OAm and DDAB were studied. For this purpose, ITO/PQDs, as well as ITO/PQDs/MAPI perovskite structures, were prepared by spin coating, and the effect of the ligand and oxygen plasma treatment was analysed. The plasma treatment of the PQDs layer could be beneficial for the deposition of the MAPI perovskite layer and the formation of a well-defined PQDs/MAPI interface. The absorption edge in UV-Vis absorption spectra for OA@OAm CsPbBr₃ QDs is placed around 513 nm (the band gap 2.38 eV); for DDAB CsPbBr₃ QDs, it is located at 490 nm (the band gap 2.33 eV). The photoluminescence (PL) spectra of CsPbBr₃ QDs show two peaks located around 514 nm (503 nm) and 718 nm (708 nm) for OA@OAm (DDAB). The peak around 500 nm corresponds to the PL of PQDs, and the peak close to 710 nm belongs to the surface states of PQDs for both types of ligands. These surface states are strongly affected by the O₃ plasma treatment. For PQDs with DDAB ligand, the O₃ exposure (5, 10, 15 s) results in the blue shift of the PQDs peak and a non-monotonous change of the amplitude of the surface states' peak. For OA@OAm ligand, the O₃ exposition did not cause any shift of the PQDs peak, and the intensity of the PL peak related to the surface states is lower by one order of magnitude in comparison with DDAB, being affected by O₃ plasma treatment. The PL results indicate the possibility of tuning the position of the PL maximum by the ligand of the PQDs. Similar behaviour of the PQDs layer was observed for the ITO/QDs/MAPI samples, where an additional strong PL peak at 770 nm coming from the perovskite layer was observed; for the sample with PQDs with DDAB ligands, a small blue shift of the perovskite PL maximum was observed independently of the plasma treatment. These results suggest the possibility of affecting the PL maximum position and the surface states of the PQDs by the combination of a suitable ligand and the O₃ plasma treatment.

Keywords: perovskite quantum dots, photoluminescence, O₃ plasma., perovskite solar cells

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Ibrahim Musa, Mohammed Abdul-Aziz Mabrouk, Yusuf Tanko

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Introduction: Long term physical training affect the performance of athletes especially the females. Soccer which is a team sport, played in an outdoor field, require adequate oxygen transport system for the maximal aerobic power during exercise in order to complete 90 minutes of competitive play. Suboptimal haematological status has often been recorded in athletes with intensive physical activity. It may be due to the iron depletion caused by hemolysis or haemodilution results from plasma volume expansion. There is lack of data regarding the dynamics of red blood cell variables, in male football players. We hypothesized that, a long competitive season involving frequent matches and intense training could influence red blood cell variables, as a consequence of applying repeated physical loads when compared with sedentary. Methods: This cross sectional study was carried on 40 adult males (20 athletes and 20 non athletes) between 18-25 years of age. The 20 apparently healthy male non athletes were taken as sedentary and 20 male footballers comprise the study group. The university institutional review board (ABUTH/HREC/TRG/36) gave approval for all procedures in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. Red blood cell (RBC) concentration, packed cell volume (PCV), and plasma volume were measured in fasting state and immediately after exercise. Statistical analysis was done by using SPSS/ win.20.0 for comparison within and between the groups, using student’s paired and unpaired “t” test respectively. Results: The finding from our study shows that, immediately after termination of exercise, the mean RBC counts and PCV significantly (p<0.005) decreased with significant increased (p<0.005) in plasma volume when compared with pre-exercised values in both group. In addition the post exercise RBC was significantly higher in untrained (261.10±8.5) when compared with trained (255.20±4.5). However, there was no significant differences in the post exercise hematocrit and plasma volume parameters between the sedentary and the footballers. Moreover, beside changes in pre-exercise values among the sedentary and the football players, the resting red blood cell counts and Plasma volume (PV %) was significantly (p < 0.05) higher in the sedentary group (306.30±10.05 x 104 /mm3; 58.40±0.54%) when compared with football players (293.70±4.65 x 104 /mm3; 55.60±1.18%). On the other hand, the sedentary group exhibited significant (p < 0.05) decrease in PCV (41.60±0.54%) when compared with the football players (44.40±1.18%). Conclusions: It is therefore proposed that the acute football exercise induced reduction in RBC and PCV is entirely due to plasma volume expansion, and not of red blood cell hemolysis. In addition, the training status also influenced haematological indices of male football players differently from the sedentary at rest due to adaptive response. This is novel.

Keywords: Haematological Indices, Performance Status, Sedentary, Male Football Players

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Mojtaba Eshraghi Arani

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The freight forwarders, who are known as the Architect of Transportation, play a vital role in the supply chain management. The package of various services which they provide has made the legal nature of freight forwarders very controversial, so that they might be qualified once as principal or carrier and, on other occasions, as agent of the shipper as the case may be. They could even be involved in the transportation process as the agent of shipping line, which makes the situation much more complicated. The courts in all countries have long had trouble in distinguishing the “forwarder as agent” from “forwarder as principal” (as it is outstanding in the prominent case of “Vastfame Camera Ltd v Birkart Globistics Ltd And Others” 2005, Hong Kong). It is not fully known that in the case of a claim against the forwarder, what particular parameter would be used by the judge among multiple, and sometimes contradictory, tests for determining the scope of the forwarder liability. In particular, every country has its own legal parameters for qualifying the freight forwarders that is completely different from others, as it is the case in France in comparison with Germany and England. The unpredictability of the courts’ decisions in this regard has provided the freight forwarders with the opportunity to impose any limitation or exception of liability while pretending to play the role of a principal, consequently making the cargo interests incur ever-increasing damage. The transportation industry needs to remove such uncertainty by unifying national laws governing freight forwarders liability. A long time ago, in 1967, The International Institute for Unification of Private Law (UNIDROIT) prepared a draft convention called “Draft Convention on Contract of Agency for Forwarding Agents Relating to International Carriage of Goods” (hereinafter called “UNIDROIT draft convention”). The UNIDROIT draft convention provided a clear and certain framework for the liability of freight forwarder in each capacity as agent or carrier, but it failed to transform to a convention, and eventually, it was consigned to oblivion. Today, after nearly 6 decades from that era, the necessity of such convention can be felt apparently. However, one might reason that the same grounds, in particular, the resistance by forwarders’ association, FIATA, exist yet, and thus it is not logical to revive a forgotten draft convention after such long period of time. It is argued in this article that the main reason for resisting the UNIDROIT draft convention in the past was pending efforts for developing the “1980 United Nation Convention on International Multimodal Transport of Goods”. However, the latter convention failed to become in force on due time in a way that there was no new accession since 1996, as a result of which the UNIDROIT draft convention must be revived strongly and immediately submitted to the relevant diplomatic conference. A qualitative method with the concept of interpretation of data collection has been used in this manuscript. The source of the data is the analysis of international conventions and cases.

Keywords: freight forwarder, revival, agent, principal, uidroit, draft convention

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Authors: Nuri Onat, Omer Tatari, Gokhan Egilmez

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The U.S. buildings consume significant amount of energy and natural resources and they are responsible for approximately 40 % of the greenhouse gases emitted in the United States. Awareness of these environmental impacts paved the way for the adoption of green building movement. The green building movement is a rapidly increasing trend. Green Construction market has generated $173 billion dollars in GDP, supported over 2.4 million jobs, and provided $123 billion dollars in labor earnings. The number of LEED certified buildings is projected to be almost half of the all new, nonresidential buildings by 2015. National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) aims to increase number of net-zero energy buildings (NZB). The ultimate goal is to have all commercial NZB by 2050 in the US (NSTC 2008). Green Building Initiative (GBI) became the first green building organization that is accredited by American National Standards Institute (ANSI), which will also boost number of green buildings certified by Green Globes. However, there is much less focus on greening the residential buildings, although the environmental impacts of existing residential buildings are more than that of commercial buildings. In this regard, current research aims to model the residential green building movement with a dynamic model approach and assess the possible strategies to stabilize the carbon footprint of the U.S. residential building stock. Three aspects of sustainable development are considered in policy making, namely: high performance green building (HPGB) construction, NZB construction and building retrofitting. 19 different policy options are proposed and analyzed. Results of this study explored that increasing the construction rate of HPGBs or NZBs is not a sufficient policy to stabilize the carbon footprint of the residential buildings. Energy efficient building retrofitting options are found to be more effective strategies then increasing HPGBs and NZBs construction. Also, significance of shifting to renewable energy sources for electricity generation is stressed.

Keywords: green building movement, residential buildings, carbon footprint, system dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Ben Khayut, Lina Fabri, Maya Avikhana

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The models of the modern Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) cannot: a) independently and continuously function without of human intelligence, used for retraining and reprogramming the ANI’s models, and b) think, understand, be conscious, cognize, infer, and more in state of Uncertainty, and changes in situations, and environmental objects. To eliminate these shortcomings and build a new generation of Artificial Intelligence systems, the paper proposes a Conception, Model, and Method of Computational Psycholinguistic Cognitive Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System (CPCSFSCBMSUU) using a neural network as its computational memory, operating under uncertainty, and activating its functions by perception, identification of real objects, fuzzy situational control, forming images of these objects, modeling their psychological, linguistic, cognitive, and neural values of properties and features, the meanings of which are identified, interpreted, generated, and formed taking into account the identified subject area, using the data, information, knowledge, and images, accumulated in the Memory. The functioning of the CPCSFSCBMSUU is carried out by its subsystems of the: fuzzy situational control of all processes, computational perception, identifying of reactions and actions, Psycholinguistic Cognitive Fuzzy Logical Inference, Decision making, Reasoning, Systems Thinking, Planning, Awareness, Consciousness, Cognition, Intuition, Wisdom, analysis and processing of the psycholinguistic, subject, visual, signal, sound and other objects, accumulation and using the data, information and knowledge in the Memory, communication, and interaction with other computing systems, robots and humans in order of solving the joint tasks. To investigate the functional processes of the proposed system, the principles of Situational Control, Fuzzy Logic, Psycholinguistics, Informatics, and modern possibilities of Data Science were applied. The proposed self-controlled System of Brain and Mind is oriented on use as a plug-in in multilingual subject Applications.

Keywords: computational brain, mind, psycholinguistic, system, under uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Siswoyo Haryono

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Purpose – The fundamental goal of this research is to see if the integrative organizational behavior model can be used effectively in Islamic boarding schools. This paper also seeks to assess the effect of Islamic organizational culture, leadership, and spiritual intelligence on teachers' organizational commitment to Islamic Boarding schools. The goal of the mediation analysis is to see if the Islamic work ethic has a more significant effect on the instructors' organizational commitment than the direct effects of Islamic organizational culture, leadership, and Islamic spiritual intelligence. Design/methodology/approach – A questionnaire survey was used to obtain data from teachers at Islamic Boarding Schools. This study used the AMOS technique for structural equation modeling to evaluate the expected direct effect. To test the hypothesized indirect effect, employed Sobel test. Findings – Islamic organizational culture, Islamic leadership, and Islamic spiritual intelligence significantly affect Islamic work ethic. When it comes to Islamic corporate culture, Islamic leadership, Islamic spiritual intelligence, and Islamic work ethics have a significant impact. The findings of the mediation study reveal that Islamic organizational culture, leadership, and spiritual intelligence influences organizational commitment through Islamic work ethic. The total effect analysis shows that the most effective path to increasing teachers’ organizational commitment is Islamic leadership - Islamic work ethic – organizational commitment. Originality/value – This study evaluates the Integrative Model of Organizational Behavior by Colquitt (2016) applied in Islamic Boarding School. The model consists of contemporary leadership and individual characteristic as the antecedent. The mediating variables of the model consist of individual mechanisms such as trust, justice, and ethic. Individual performance and organizational commitment are the model's outcomes. These variables, on the other hand, do not represent the Islamic viewpoint as a whole. As a result, this study aims to assess the role of Islamic principles in the model. The study employs reliability and validity tests to get reliable and valid measures. The findings revealed that the evaluation model is proven to improve organizational commitment at Islamic Boarding School.

Keywords: Islamic leadership, Islamic spiritual intelligence, Islamic work ethic, organizational commitment, Islamic boarding school

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Dheyaa W. Abbood, Rafa H. AL-Suhaili, May S. Saleh

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A model using the artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm technique is developed for obtaining optimum dimensions of the foundation length and protections of small hydraulic structures. The procedure involves optimizing an objective function comprising a weighted summation of the state variables. The decision variables considered in the optimization are the upstream and downstream cutoffs length sand their angles of inclination, the foundation length, and the length of the downstream soil protection. These were obtained for a given maximum difference in head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy.The optimization carried out subjected to constraints that ensure a safe structure against the uplift pressure force and sufficient protection length at the downstream side of the structure to overcome an excessive exit gradient. The Geo-studios oft ware, was used to analyze 1200 different cases. For each case the length of protection and volume of structure required to satisfy the safety factors mentioned previously were estimated. An ANN model was developed and verified using these cases input-output sets as its data base. A MatLAB code was written to perform a genetic algorithm optimization modeling coupled with this ANN model using a formulated optimization model. A sensitivity analysis was done for selecting the cross-over probability, the mutation probability and level ,the number of population, the position of the crossover and the weights distribution for all the terms of the objective function. Results indicate that the most factor that affects the optimum solution is the number of population required. The minimum value that gives stable global optimum solution of this parameters is (30000) while other variables have little effect on the optimum solution.

Keywords: inclined cutoff, optimization, genetic algorithm, artificial neural networks, geo-studio, uplift pressure, exit gradient, factor of safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Samuel Abebe Ebebo

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Scale precipitation causes a major issue for geothermal power plants because it reduces the production rate of geothermal energy. Each geothermal power plant's different chemical and physical conditions can cause the scale to precipitate under a particular set of fluid-rock interactions. Depending on the mineral, it is possible to have scale in the production well, steam separators, heat exchangers, reinjection wells, and everywhere in between. The scale consists mainly of smectite and trace amounts of chlorite, magnetite, quartz, hematite, dolomite, aragonite, and amorphous silica. The smectite scale is one of the difficult scales at injection wells in geothermal power plants. X-ray diffraction and chemical composition identify this smectite as Stevensite. The characteristics and the scale of each injection well line are different depending on the fluid chemistry. The smectite scale has been widely distributed in pipelines and surface plants. Mineral water equilibrium showed that the main factors controlling the saturation indices of smectite increased pH and dissolved Mg concentration due to the precipitate on the equipment surface. This study aims to characterize the scales and geothermal fluids collected from the Onuma geothermal power plant in Akita Prefecture, Japan. Field tests were conducted on October 30–November 3, 2021, at Onuma to determine the pH control methods for preventing magnesium silicate scaling, and as exemplified, the formation of magnesium silicate hydrates (M-S-H) with MgO to SiO2 ratios of 1.0 and pH values of 10 for one day has been studied at 25 °C. As a result, M-S-H scale formation could be suppressed, and stevensite formation could also be suppressed when we can decrease the pH of the fluid by less than 8.1, 7.4, and 8 (at 97 °C) in the fluid from O-3Rb and O-6Rb, O-10Rg, and O-12R, respectively. In this context, the scales and fluids collected from injection wells at a geothermal power plant in Japan were analyzed and characterized to understand the formation conditions of Mg-silicate scales with on-site synthesis experiments. From the results of the characterizations and on-site synthesis experiments, the inhibition method of their scale formation is discussed based on geochemical modeling in this study.

Keywords: magnesium silicate, scaling, inhibitor, geothermal power plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Cécile Dufloux, Klaus Böttcher, Heike Oppermann, Jürgen Wollweber

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Hexagonal aluminum nitride (AlN) is a promising candidate for several wide band gap semiconductor compound applications such as deep UV light emitting diodes (UVC LED) and fast power transistors (HEMTs). To date, bulk AlN single crystals are still commonly grown from the physical vapor transport (PVT). Single crystalline AlN wafers obtained from this process could offer suitable substrates for a defect-free growth of ultimately active AlGaN layers, however, these wafers still lack from small sizes, limited delivery quantities and high prices so far.Although there is already an increasing interest in the commercial availability of AlN wafers, comparatively cheap Si, SiC or sapphire are still predominantly used as substrate material for the deposition of active AlGaN layers. Nevertheless, due to a lattice mismatch up to 20%, the obtained material shows high defect densities and is, therefore, less suitable for high power devices as described above. Therefore, the use of AlN with specially adapted properties for optical and sensor applications could be promising for mass market products which seem to fulfill fewer requirements. To respond to the demand of suitable AlN target material for the growth of AlGaN layers, we have designed an innovative technology based on reactive plasma spraying. The goal is to produce coarse grained AlN boules with N-terminated columnar structure and high purity. In this process, aluminum is injected into a microwave stimulated nitrogen plasma. AlN, as the product of the reaction between aluminum powder and the plasma activated N2, is deposited onto the target. We used an aluminum filament as the initial material to minimize oxygen contamination during the process. The material was guided through the nitrogen plasma so that the mass turnover was 10g/h. To avoid any impurity contamination by an erosion of the electrodes, an electrode-less discharge was used for the plasma ignition. The pressure was maintained at 600-700 mbar, so the plasma reached a temperature high enough to vaporize the aluminum which subsequently was reacting with the surrounding plasma. The obtained products consist of thick polycrystalline AlN layers with a diameter of 2-3 cm. The crystallinity was determined by X-ray crystallography. The grain structure was systematically investigated by optical and scanning electron microscopy. Furthermore, we performed a Raman spectroscopy to provide evidence of stress in the layers. This paper will discuss the effects of process parameters such as microwave power and deposition geometry (specimen holder, radiation shields, ...) on the topography, crystallinity, and stress distribution of AlN.

Keywords: aluminum nitride, polycrystal, reactive plasma spraying, semiconductor

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: İlkay Özer Erselcan, Abdi Kükner, Gökhan Ceylan

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The power generated by eight point absorber type wave energy converters each having a different buoy are calculated in order to investigate the performances of buoys in this study. The calculations are carried out by modeling three different sea states observed in two different locations in the Black Sea. The floats analyzed in this study have two basic geometries and four different draft/radius (d/r) ratios. The buoys possess the shapes of a semi-ellipsoid and a semi-elliptic paraboloid. Additionally, the draft/radius ratios range from 0.25 to 1 by an increment of 0.25. The radiation forces acting on the buoys due to the oscillatory motions of these bodies are evaluated by employing a 3D panel method along with a distribution of 3D pulsating sources in frequency domain. On the other hand, the wave forces acting on the buoys which are taken as the sum of Froude-Krylov forces and diffraction forces are calculated by using linear wave theory. Furthermore, the wave energy converters are assumed to be taut-moored to the seabed so that the secondary body which houses a power take-off system oscillates with much smaller amplitudes compared to the buoy. As a result, it is assumed that there is not any significant contribution to the power generation from the motions of the housing body and the only contribution to power generation comes from the buoy. The power take-off systems of the wave energy converters are high pressure oil hydraulic systems which are identical in terms of their characteristic parameters. The results show that the power generated by wave energy converters which have semi-ellipsoid floats is higher than that of those which have semi elliptic paraboloid floats in both locations and in all sea states. It is also determined that the power generated by the wave energy converters follow an unsteady pattern such that they do not decrease or increase with changing draft/radius ratios of the floats. Although the highest power level is obtained with a semi-ellipsoid float which has a draft/radius ratio equal to 1, other floats of which the draft/radius ratio is 0.25 delivered higher power that the floats with a draft/radius ratio equal to 1 in some cases.

Keywords: Black Sea, buoys, hydraulic power take-off system, wave energy converters

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Authors: Fidelia A. Orji, Julita Vassileva

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This research aims to develop machine learning models for students' academic performance and study strategy prediction, which could be generalized to all courses in higher education. Key learning attributes (intrinsic, extrinsic, autonomy, relatedness, competence, and self-esteem) used in building the models are chosen based on prior studies, which revealed that the attributes are essential in students’ learning process. Previous studies revealed the individual effects of each of these attributes on students’ learning progress. However, few studies have investigated the combined effect of the attributes in predicting student study strategy and academic performance to reduce the dropout rate. To bridge this gap, we used Scikit-learn in python to build five machine learning models (Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, Linear/Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine) for both regression and classification tasks to perform our analysis. The models were trained, evaluated, and tested for accuracy using 924 university dentistry students' data collected by Chilean authors through quantitative research design. A comparative analysis of the models revealed that the tree-based models such as the random forest (with prediction accuracy of 94.9%) and decision tree show the best results compared to the linear, support vector, and k-nearest neighbours. The models built in this research can be used in predicting student performance and study strategy so that appropriate interventions could be implemented to improve student learning progress. Thus, incorporating strategies that could improve diverse student learning attributes in the design of online educational systems may increase the likelihood of students continuing with their learning tasks as required. Moreover, the results show that the attributes could be modelled together and used to adapt/personalize the learning process.

Keywords: classification models, learning strategy, predictive modeling, regression models, student academic performance, student motivation, supervised machine learning

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Authors: Xiao Yang, Ji Zhang, Yingli Song, Hui Huang, Jing Zhang, Yan Wang, Rongrong Han, Zhixuan Xiang, Lu Chen, Lingling Gao

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Aim and Objectives: To examine physical activity self-efficacy, identify its predictors, and further explore the mechanism of action among the predictors in mainland Chinese pregnant women with high risk for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Background: Physical activity could protect pregnant women from developing GDM. Physical activity self-efficacy was the key predictor of physical activity. Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2021 to May 2022 in Zhengzhou, China. Methods: 252 eligible pregnant women completed the Pregnancy Physical Activity Self-efficacy Scale, the Social Support for Physical Activity Scale, the Knowledge on Physical Activity Questionnaire, the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, and a socio-demographic data sheet. Multiple linear regression was applied to explore the predictors of physical activity self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling was used to explore the mechanism of action among the predictors. Results: Chinese pregnant women with a high risk for GDM reported a moderate level of physical activity self-efficacy. The best-fit regression analysis revealed four variables explained 17.5% of the variance in physical activity self-efficacy. Social support for physical activity was the strongest predictor, followed by knowledge of the physical activity, intention to do physical activity, and anxiety symptoms. The model analysis indicated that knowledge of physical activity could release anxiety and depressive symptoms and then increase physical activity self-efficacy. Conclusion: The present study revealed a moderate level of physical activity self-efficacy. Interventions targeting pregnant women with high risk for GDM need to include the predictors of physical activity self-efficacy. Relevance to clinical practice: To facilitate pregnant women with high risk for GDM to engage in physical activity, healthcare professionals may find assess physical activity self-efficacy and intervene as soon as possible on their first antenatal visit. Physical activity intervention programs focused on self-efficacy may be conducted in further research.

Keywords: physical activity, gestational diabetes, self-efficacy, predictors

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Authors: Meryam Labyad, Karima Fakiri, Widad Lahmini, Ghizlane Draiss, Mohamed Bouskraoui, Nadia Ouzennou

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Background: Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children, affecting nearly 235 million people worldwide (OMS). In Morocco, asthma is much more common in children than in adults; the prevalence rate in children between 13 and 14 years of age is 20%.1 This pathology is marked by high morbidity, a significant impact on the quality of life and development of children 2 This requires a rigorous management strategy in order to achieve clinical control and reduce any risk to the patient 3 A search for aggravating factors is mandatory if a child has difficulty maintaining good asthma control. The objective of the present study is to describe asthma control during this confinement period in children aged 4 to 11 years followed by a pneumo-paediatric consultation. For children whose asthma is not controlled, a search for associations with promoting factors and adherence to treatment is also among the objectives of the study. Knowing the level of asthma control and influencing factors is a therapeutic priority in order to reduce hospitalizations and emergency care use. Objective: To assess asthma control and determine the factors influencing asthma levels in children with asthma during confinement following the COVID 19 pandemic. Method: Prospective cross-sectional study by questionnaire and structured interview among 66 asthmatic children followed in pediatric pneumology consultation at the CHU MED VI of Marrakech from 13/06/2020 to 13/07/2020, asthma control was assessed by the Childhood Asthma Control Test (C-ACT). Results: 66 children and their parents were included (mean age is 7.5 years), asthma was associated with allergic rhinitis (13.5% of cases), conjunctivitis (9% of cases), eczema (12% of cases), occurrence of infection (10.5% of cases). The period of confinement was marked by a decrease in the number of asthma attacks translated by a decrease in the number of emergency room visits (7.5%) of these asthmatic children, control was well controlled in 71% of the children, this control was significantly associated with good adherence to treatment (p<0.001), no infection (p<0.001) and no conjunctivitis (p=002) or rhinitis (p<0.001). This improvement in asthma control during confinement can be explained by the measures taken in the Kingdom to prevent the spread of COVID 19 (school closures, reduction in industrial activity, fewer means of transport, etc.), leading to a decrease in children's exposure to triggers, which justifies the decrease in the number of children having had an infection, allergic rhinitis or conjunctivitis during this period. In addition, the close monitoring of parents resulted in better therapeutic adherence (42.4% were fully observant). Confinement was positively perceived by 68% of the parents; this perception is significantly associated with the level of asthma control (p<0.001). Conclusion: Maintaining good control can be achieved through improved therapeutic adherence and avoidance of triggers, both of which were achieved during the containment period following the VIDOC pandemic 19.

Keywords: Asthma, control , COVID-19 , children

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Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Peter G. Hollis, Kim G. Clarke

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Accurate quantification of the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) is ubiquitously measured in bioprocesses by analysing the response of dissolved oxygen (DO) to a step change in the oxygen partial pressure in the sparge gas using a DO probe. Typically, the response lag (τ) of the probe has been ignored in the calculation of KLa when τ is less than the reciprocal KLa, failing which a constant τ has invariably been assumed. These conventions have now been reassessed in the context of multiphase bioprocesses, such as a hydrocarbon-based system. Here, significant variation of τ in response to changes in process conditions has been documented. Experiments were conducted in a 5 L baffled stirred tank bioreactor (New Brunswick) in a simulated hydrocarbon-based bioprocess comprising a C14-20 alkane-aqueous dispersion with suspended non-viable Saccharomyces cerevisiae solids. DO was measured with a polarographic DO probe fitted with a Teflon membrane (Mettler Toledo). The DO concentration response to a step change in the sparge gas oxygen partial pressure was recorded, from which KLa was calculated using a first order model (without incorporation of τ) and a second order model (incorporating τ). τ was determined as the time taken to reach 63.2% of the saturation DO after the probe was transferred from a nitrogen saturated vessel to an oxygen saturated bioreactor and is represented as the inverse of the probe constant (KP). The relative effects of the process parameters on KP were quantified using a central composite design with factor levels typical of hydrocarbon bioprocesses, namely 1-10 g/L yeast, 2-20 vol% alkane and 450-1000 rpm. A response surface was fitted to the empirical data, while ANOVA was used to determine the significance of the effects with a 95% confidence interval. KP varied with changes in the system parameters with the impact of solid loading statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Increased solid loading reduced KP consistently, an effect which was magnified at high alkane concentrations, with a minimum KP of 0.024 s-1 observed at the highest solids loading of 10 g/L. This KP was 2.8 fold lower that the maximum of 0.0661 s-1 recorded at 1 g/L solids, demonstrating a substantial increase in τ from 15.1 s to 41.6 s as a result of differing process conditions. Importantly, exclusion of KP in the calculation of KLa was shown to under-predict KLa for all process conditions, with an error up to 50% at the highest KLa values. Accurate quantification of KLa, and therefore KP, has far-reaching impact on industrial bioprocesses to ensure these systems are not transport limited during scale-up and operation. This study has shown the incorporation of τ to be essential to ensure KLa measurement accuracy in multiphase bioprocesses. Moreover, since τ has been conclusively shown to vary significantly with process conditions, it has also been shown that it is essential for τ to be determined individually for each set of process conditions.

Keywords: effect of process conditions, measuring oxygen transfer coefficients, multiphase bioprocesses, oxygen probe response lag

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Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

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In today's data-driven world, the role of mathematics in bridging the gap between theory and applications is becoming increasingly vital. This abstract highlights the significance of mathematics as a powerful tool for analyzing, interpreting, and extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of data. By integrating mathematical principles with real-world applications, researchers can unlock the full potential of data-driven decision-making processes. This abstract delves into the various ways mathematics acts as a bridge connecting theoretical frameworks to practical applications. It explores the utilization of mathematical models, algorithms, and statistical techniques to uncover hidden patterns, trends, and correlations within complex datasets. Furthermore, it investigates the role of mathematics in enhancing predictive modeling, optimization, and risk assessment methodologies for improved decision-making in diverse fields such as finance, healthcare, engineering, and social sciences. The abstract also emphasizes the need for interdisciplinary collaboration between mathematicians, statisticians, computer scientists, and domain experts to tackle the challenges posed by the data-driven landscape. By fostering synergies between these disciplines, novel approaches can be developed to address complex problems and make data-driven insights accessible and actionable. Moreover, this abstract underscores the importance of robust mathematical foundations for ensuring the reliability and validity of data analysis. Rigorous mathematical frameworks not only provide a solid basis for understanding and interpreting results but also contribute to the development of innovative methodologies and techniques. In summary, this abstract advocates for the pivotal role of mathematics in bridging theory and applications in a data-driven world. By harnessing mathematical principles, researchers can unlock the transformative potential of data analysis, paving the way for evidence-based decision-making, optimized processes, and innovative solutions to the challenges of our rapidly evolving society.

Keywords: mathematics, bridging theory and applications, data-driven world, mathematical models

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Authors: Sergio V Davalos, Alison L. Watkins

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User generated content (UGC) such as website post has data associated with it: time of the post, gender, location, type of device, and number of words. The text entered in user generated content (UGC) can provide a valuable dimension for analysis. In this research, each user post is treated as a collection of terms (words). In addition to the number of words per post, the frequency of each term is determined by post and by the sum of occurrences in all posts. This research focuses on one specific aspect of UGC: sentiment. Sentiment analysis (SA) was applied to the content (user posts) of two sets of political forums related to the US presidential elections for 2012 and 2016. Sentiment analysis results in deriving data from the text. This enables the subsequent application of data analytic methods. The SASA (SAIL/SAI Sentiment Analyzer) model was used for sentiment analysis. The application of SASA resulted with a sentiment score for each post. Based on the sentiment scores for the posts there are significant differences between the content and sentiment of the two sets for the 2012 and 2016 presidential election forums. In the 2012 forums, 38% of the forums started with positive sentiment and 16% with negative sentiment. In the 2016 forums, 29% started with positive sentiment and 15% with negative sentiment. There also were changes in sentiment over time. For both elections as the election got closer, the cumulative sentiment score became negative. The candidate who won each election was in the more posts than the losing candidates. In the case of Trump, there were more negative posts than Clinton’s highest number of posts which were positive. KNIME topic modeling was used to derive topics from the posts. There were also changes in topics and keyword emphasis over time. Initially, the political parties were the most referenced and as the election got closer the emphasis changed to the candidates. The performance of the SASA method proved to predict sentiment better than four other methods in Sentibench. The research resulted in deriving sentiment data from text. In combination with other data, the sentiment data provided insight and discovery about user sentiment in the US presidential elections for 2012 and 2016.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, text mining, user generated content, US presidential elections

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Zhang Qingzhong

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Though there exists an increasing number of research studies on the headquarters-subsidiary relationship, and within this context, there is a focus on subsidiaries' contributory role to multinational corporations (MNC), subsidiary autonomy, and the conditions under which autonomy exerts an effect on subsidiary performance still constitute a subject of debate in the literature. The objective of this research is to study the MNC subsidiary autonomy and performance relationship and the effect of subsidiary entrepreneurial orientation and trust on subsidiary autonomy in the China environment, a phenomenon that has not yet been studied. The research addresses the following three questions: (i) Is subsidiary autonomy associated with MNC subsidiary performance in the China environment? (ii) How do subsidiary entrepreneurship and its trust in headquarters affect the level of subsidiary autonomy and its relationship with subsidiary performance? (iii) Does subsidiary autonomy have a mediating effect on subsidiary performance with subsidiary’s entrepreneurship and trust in headquarters? In the present study, we have reviewed literature and conducted semi-structured interviews with multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiary senior executives in China. Building on our insights from the interviews and taking perspectives from four theories, namely the resource-based view (RBV), resource dependency theory, integration-responsiveness framework, and social exchange theory, as well as the extant articles on subsidiary autonomy, entrepreneurial orientation, trust, and subsidiary performance, we have developed a model and have explored the direct and mediating effects of subsidiary autonomy on subsidiary performance within the framework of the MNC. To test the model, we collected and analyzed data based on cross-industry two waves of an online survey from 102 subsidiaries of MNCs in China. We used structural equation modeling to test measurement, direct effect model, and conceptual framework with hypotheses. Our findings confirm that (a) subsidiary autonomy is positively related to subsidiary performance; (b) subsidiary entrepreneurial orientation is positively related to subsidiary autonomy; (c) subsidiary’s trust in headquarters has a positive effect on subsidiary autonomy; (d) subsidiary autonomy mediates the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and subsidiary performance; (e) subsidiary autonomy mediates the relationship between trust and subsidiary performance. Our study highlights the important role of subsidiary autonomy in leveraging the resource of subsidiary entrepreneurial orientation and its trust relationship with headquarters to achieve high performance. We discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of the findings and propose directions for future research.

Keywords: subsidiary entrepreneurial orientation, trust, subsidiary autonomy, subsidiary performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Katarina Pogacnik, Ursa Zakrajsek, Nejc Sirk, Ziga Lampret

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Due to an increase in living standards along with global population growth and a trend of urbanization, municipalities and regions are faced with an ever rising energy demand. A challenge has arisen for cities around the world to modify the energy supply chain in order to reduce its consumption and CO₂ emissions. The aim of our work is the development of a computational-analytical platform for dynamic support in decision-making and the determination of economic and technical indicators of energy efficiency in a smart city, named Energy Atlas. Similar products in this field focuse on a narrower approach, whereas in order to achieve its aim, this platform encompasses a wider spectrum of beneficial and important information for energy planning on a local or regional scale. GIS based interactive maps provide an extensive database on the potential, use and supply of energy and renewable energy sources along with climate, transport and spatial data of the selected municipality. Beneficiaries of Energy atlas are local communities, companies, investors, contractors as well as residents. The Energy Atlas platform consists of three modules named E-Planning, E-Indicators and E-Cooperation. The E-Planning module is a comprehensive data service, which represents a support towards optimal decision-making and offers a sum of solutions and feasibility of measures and their effects in the area of efficient use of energy and renewable energy sources. The E-Indicators module identifies, collects and develops optimal data and key performance indicators and develops an analytical application service for dynamic support in managing a smart city in regards to energy use and sustainable environment. In order to support cooperation and direct involvement of citizens of the smart city, the E-cooperation is developed with the purpose of integrating the interdisciplinary and sociological aspects of energy end-users. Interaction of all the above-described modules contributes to regional development because it enables for a precise assessment of the current situation, strategic planning, detection of potential future difficulties and also the possibility of public involvement in decision-making. From the implementation of the technology in Slovenian municipalities of Ljubljana, Piran, and Novo mesto, there is evidence to suggest that the set goals are to be achieved to a great extent. Such thorough urban energy planning tool is viewed as an important piece of the puzzle towards achieving a low-carbon society, circular economy and therefore, sustainable society.

Keywords: circular economy, energy atlas, energy management, energy planning, low-carbon society

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Authors: M. Abuziarov

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The designed complex is intended for the numerical simulation of fast dynamic processes of interaction of heterogeneous environments susceptible to the significant formability. The main challenges in solving such problems are associated with the construction of the numerical meshes. Currently, there are two basic approaches to solve this problem. One is using of Lagrangian or Lagrangian Eulerian grid associated with the boundaries of media and the second is associated with the fixed Eulerian mesh, boundary cells of which cut boundaries of the environment medium and requires the calculation of these cut volumes. Both approaches require the complex grid generators and significant time for preparing the code’s data for simulation. In this codes these problems are solved using two grids, regular fixed and mobile local Euler Lagrange - Eulerian (ALE approach) accompanying the contact and free boundaries, the surfaces of shock waves and phase transitions, and other possible features of solutions, with mutual interpolation of integrated parameters. For modeling of both liquids and gases, and deformable solids the Godunov scheme of increased accuracy is used in Lagrangian - Eulerian variables, the same for the Euler equations and for the Euler- Cauchy, describing the deformation of the solid. The increased accuracy of the scheme is achieved by using 3D spatial time dependent solution of the discontinuity problem (3D space time dependent Riemann's Problem solver). The same solution is used to calculate the interaction at the liquid-solid surface (Fluid Structure Interaction problem). The codes does not require complex 3D mesh generators, only the surfaces of the calculating objects as the STL files created by means of engineering graphics are given by the user, which greatly simplifies the preparing the task and makes it convenient to use directly by the designer at the design stage. The results of the test solutions and applications related to the generation and extension of the detonation and shock waves, loading the constructions are presented.

Keywords: fluid structure interaction, Riemann's solver, Euler variables, 3D codes

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Authors: Tarek Duzan

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Fractures are a fundamental property of most reservoirs. Despite their abundance, they remain difficult to detect and quantify. The most effective characterization of fractured reservoirs is accomplished by integrating geological, geophysical, and engineering data. Detection of fractures and defines their relative contribution is crucial in the early stages of exploration and later in the production of any field. Because fractures could completely change our thoughts, efforts, and planning to produce a specific field properly. From the structural point of view, all reservoirs are fractured to some point of extent. North Gialo field is thought to be a naturally fractured reservoir to some extent. Historically, natural fractured reservoirs are more complicated in terms of their exploration and production efforts, and most geologists tend to deny the presence of fractures as an effective variable. Our aim in this paper is to determine the degree of fracturing, and consequently, our evaluation and planning can be done properly and efficiently from day one. The challenging part in this field is that there is no enough data and straightforward well testing that can let us completely comfortable with the idea of fracturing; however, we cannot ignore the fractures completely. Logging images, available well testing, and limited core studies are our tools in this stage to evaluate, model, and predict possible fracture effects in this reservoir. The aims of this study are both fundamental and practical—to improve the prediction and diagnosis of natural-fracture attributes in N. Gialo hydrocarbon reservoirs and accurately simulate their influence on production. Moreover, the production of this field comes from 2-phase plan; a self depletion of oil and then gas injection period for pressure maintenance and increasing ultimate recovery factor. Therefore, well understanding of fracturing network is essential before proceeding with the targeted plan. New analytical methods will lead to more realistic characterization of fractured and faulted reservoir rocks. These methods will produce data that can enhance well test and seismic interpretations, and that can readily be used in reservoir simulators.

Keywords: natural fracture, sandstone reservoir, geological, geophysical, and engineering data

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Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support the operational decision of the Emergency Medical Service (EMS) regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). In the literature, this problem is also known as “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of the first phase of revision of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies are mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a request. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the transport time and release the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs, considering information relating to the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case-mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to evaluate different hospital selection policies. Therefore, the next steps of the research consisted of the development of a general simulation architecture, its implementation in the AnyLogic software and its validation on a realistic dataset. The hospital selection policy that produced the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, which is based on a retrospective estimate of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, which is based on a predictive estimate of the TTP determined with a constantly updated Winters model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP as a hospital selection policy raises several benefits. It allows to significantly reduce service throughput times in the ED with a minimum increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case-mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms of TTP estimation than a retrospective approach but entails a more difficult application. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, emergency medical services, forecast model, hospital selection

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Authors: L. Guevara, Glória L. S., Corea E. E, A. Ramírez-Zamora M., Salinas-Martinez J. A., Angeles-Hernandez J. C.

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Mathematical models are useful for identifying the characteristics of sheep lactation curves to develop and implement improved strategies. However, the accuracy of these models is influenced by factors such as the recording regime, mainly the intervals between test day records (TDR). The current study aimed to evaluate the effect of different TDR intervals on the goodness of fit of the Wood model (WM) applied to dairy sheep lactations. A total of 4,494 weekly TDRs from 156 lactations of dairy crossbred sheep were analyzed. Three new databases were generated from the original weekly TDR data (7D), comprising intervals of 14(14D), 21(21D), and 28(28D) days. The parameters of WM were estimated using the “minpack.lm” package in the R software. The shape of the lactation curve (typical and atypical) was defined based on the WM parameters. The goodness of fit was evaluated using the mean square of prediction error (MSPE), Root of MSPE (RMSPE), Akaike´s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian´s Information Criterion (BIC), and the coefficient of correlation (r) between the actual and estimated total milk yield (TMY). WM showed an adequate estimate of TMY regardless of the TDR interval (P=0.21) and shape of the lactation curve (P=0.42). However, we found higher values of r for typical curves compared to atypical curves (0.9vs.0.74), with the highest values for the 28D interval (r=0.95). In the same way, we observed an overestimated peak yield (0.92vs.6.6 l) and underestimated time of peak yield (21.5vs.1.46) in atypical curves. The best values of RMSPE were observed for the 28D interval in both lactation curve shapes. The significant lowest values of AIC (P=0.001) and BIC (P=0.001) were shown by the 7D interval for typical and atypical curves. These results represent the first approach to define the adequate interval to record the regime of dairy sheep in Latin America and showed a better fitting for the Wood model using a 7D interval. However, it is possible to obtain good estimates of TMY using a 28D interval, which reduces the sampling frequency and would save additional costs to dairy sheep producers.

Keywords: gamma incomplete, ewes, shape curves, modeling

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Authors: Omid Giahi, Ebrahim Darvishi, Mahdi Akbarzadeh

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Introduction: Occupational low back pain (LBP) is one of the most prevalent work-related musculoskeletal disorders in which a lot of risk factors are involved that. The present study focuses on the relation between personal, psycho-social and occupational risk factors and LBP severity in industrial workers. Materials and Methods: This research was a case-control study which was conducted in Kurdistan province. 100 workers (Mean Age ± SD of 39.9 ± 10.45) with LBP were selected as the case group, and 100 workers (Mean Age ± SD of 37.2 ± 8.5) without LBP were assigned into the control group. All participants were selected from various industrial units, and they had similar occupational conditions. The required data including demographic information (BMI, smoking, alcohol, and family history), occupational (posture, mental workload (MWL), force, vibration and repetition), and psychosocial factors (stress, occupational satisfaction and security) of the participants were collected via consultation with occupational medicine specialists, interview, and the related questionnaires and also the NASA-TLX software and REBA worksheet. Chi-square test, logistic regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to analyze the data. For analysis of data, IBM Statistics SPSS 24 and Mplus6 software have been used. Results: 114 (77%) of the individuals were male and 86 were (23%) female. Mean Career length of the Case Group and Control Group were 10.90 ± 5.92, 9.22 ± 4.24, respectively. The statistical analysis of the data revealed that there was a significant correlation between the Posture, Smoking, Stress, Satisfaction, and MWL with occupational LBP. The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) derived from a logistic regression model were 2.7 (1.27-2.24) and 2.5 (2.26-5.17) and 3.22 (2.47-3.24) for Stress, MWL, and Posture, respectively. Also, the SEM analysis of the personal, psycho-social and occupational factors with LBP revealed that there was a significant correlation. Conclusion: All three broad categories of risk factors simultaneously increase the risk of occupational LBP in the workplace. But, the risks of Posture, Stress, and MWL have a major role in LBP severity. Therefore, prevention strategies for persons in jobs with high risks for LBP are required to decrease the risk of occupational LBP.

Keywords: industrial workers occupational, low back pain, occupational risk factors, psychosocial factors

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Authors: Abdulaziz F. Ettir, Ghait Bashir, Tarek S. Duzan

Abstract:

A proper well planning is very vital to achieve any successful drilling program on the basis of preventing, overcome all drilling problems and minimize cost operations. Since the hydraulic system plays an active role during the drilling operations, that will lead to accelerate the drilling effort and lower the overall well cost. Likewise, an improperly designed hydraulic system can slow drill rate, fail to clean the hole of cuttings, and cause kicks. In most cases, common sense and commercially available computer programs are the only elements required to design the hydraulic system. Drilling optimization is the logical process of analyzing effects and interactions of drilling variables through applied drilling and hydraulic equations and mathematical modeling to achieve maximum drilling efficiency with minimize drilling cost. In this paper, practical software adopted in this paper to define drilling optimization models including four different optimum keys, namely Opti-flow, Opti-clean, Opti-slip and Opti-nozzle that can help to achieve high drilling efficiency with lower cost. The used data in this research from vertical and horizontal wells were recently drilled in Waha Oil Company fields. The input data are: Formation type, Geopressures, Hole Geometry, Bottom hole assembly and Mud reghology. Upon data analysis, all the results from wells show that the proposed program provides a high accuracy than that proposed from the company in terms of hole cleaning efficiency, and cost break down if we consider that the actual data as a reference base for all wells. Finally, it is recommended to use the established Optimization calculations software at drilling design to achieve correct drilling parameters that can provide high drilling efficiency, borehole cleaning and all other hydraulic parameters which assist to minimize hole problems and control drilling operation costs.

Keywords: optimum keys, namely opti-flow, opti-clean, opti-slip and opti-nozzle

Procedia PDF Downloads 313