Search results for: stock predictions

Authors: R. Islam, Rafiqul A. Tarefder

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This study presents the moisture variations of unbound layers from April 2012 to January 2014 in the Interstate 40 (I-40) pavement section in New Mexico. Three moisture probes were installed at different layers inside the pavement which measure the continuous moisture variations of the pavement. Data show that the moisture contents of unbound layers are typically constant throughout the day and month unless there is rainfall. Moisture contents of all unbound layers change with rainfall. Change in ground water table may affect the moisture content of unbound layers which has not investigated in this study. In addition, the Level 3 predictions of moisture contents using the Pavement Mechanistic-Empirical (ME) Design software are compared and found quite reasonable. However, results presented in the current study may not be applicable for pavement in other regions.

Keywords: asphalt pavement, moisture probes, resilient modulus, climate model

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Karim Akkouche, Amine Nekmouche, Leyla Bouzid

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This study focuses on the development of a multifunctional Expert System (ES) called post-seismic damage inspection tool (PSDIT), a powerful tool which allows the evaluation, the processing, and the archiving of the collected data stock after earthquakes. PSDIT can be operated by two user types; an ordinary user (ingineer, expert, or architect) for the damage visual inspection and an administrative user for updating the knowledge and / or for adding or removing the ordinary user. The knowledge acquisition is driven by a hierarchical knowledge model, the Information from investigation reports and those acquired through feedback from expert / engineer questionnaires are part.

Keywords: .disaster, damaged structures, damage assessment, expert system

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Edgar Santoyo, Daniel Perez-Zarate, Agustin Acevedo, Lorena Diaz-Gonzalez, Mirna Guevara

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Four new gas geothermometers have been derived from a multivariate geo chemometric analysis of a geothermal fluid chemistry database, two of which use the natural logarithm of CO₂ and H2S concentrations (mmol/mol), respectively, and the other two use the natural logarithm of the H₂S/H₂ and CO₂/H₂ ratios. As a strict compilation criterion, the database was created with gas-phase composition of fluids and bottomhole temperatures (BHTM) measured in producing wells. The calibration of the geothermometers was based on the geochemical relationship existing between the gas-phase composition of well discharges and the equilibrium temperatures measured at bottomhole conditions. Multivariate statistical analysis together with the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) was successfully applied for correlating the gas-phase compositions and the BHTM. The predicted or simulated bottomhole temperatures (BHTANN), defined as output neurons or simulation targets, were statistically compared with measured temperatures (BHTM). The coefficients of the new geothermometers were obtained from an optimized self-adjusting training algorithm applied to approximately 2,080 ANN architectures with 15,000 simulation iterations each one. The self-adjusting training algorithm used the well-known Levenberg-Marquardt model, which was used to calculate: (i) the number of neurons of the hidden layer; (ii) the training factor and the training patterns of the ANN; (iii) the linear correlation coefficient, R; (iv) the synaptic weighting coefficients; and (v) the statistical parameter, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to evaluate the prediction performance between the BHTM and the simulated BHTANN. The prediction performance of the new gas geothermometers together with those predictions inferred from sixteen well-known gas geothermometers (previously developed) was statistically evaluated by using an external database for avoiding a bias problem. Statistical evaluation was performed through the analysis of the lowest RMSE values computed among the predictions of all the gas geothermometers. The new gas geothermometers developed in this work have been successfully used for predicting subsurface temperatures in high-temperature geothermal systems of Mexico (e.g., Los Azufres, Mich., Los Humeros, Pue., and Cerro Prieto, B.C.) as well as in a blind geothermal system (known as Acoculco, Puebla). The last results of the gas geothermometers (inferred from gas-phase compositions of soil-gas bubble emissions) compare well with the temperature measured in two wells of the blind geothermal system of Acoculco, Puebla (México). Details of this new development are outlined in the present research work. Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge the funding received from CeMIE-Geo P09 project (SENER-CONACyT).

Keywords: artificial intelligence, gas geochemistry, geochemometrics, geothermal energy

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Authors: Mustafa Gülen, Eylem Güzel, Soner Guler

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The concrete filled steel tube (CFST) columns are commonly used in construction applications such as high-rise buildings and bridges owing to its lots of remarkable benefits. The use of concrete filled steel tube columns provides large areas by reduction in cross-sectional area of columns. The main aim of this study is to examine the axial load capacities of circular high strength concrete filled steel tube columns according to Eurocode 4 (EC4) and Chinese Code (DL/T). The results showed that the predictions of EC4 and Chinese Code DL/T are unsafe for all specimens.

Keywords: concrete-filled steel tube column, axial load capacity, Chinese code, Australian Standard

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Authors: Moridi Fatemeh, Dasineh Mehdi, Jafari Narges

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The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between dividends and investment in a condition of cash flow uncertainty. Previous studies have also found some evidence that there is N-shaped relationship between dividends and investment given different levels of cash uncertainly. Thus, this study examines this relationship over the period 2009-2014 in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Based on our sample and new variables, we found reverse N-shaped relationship in different levels of cash flow uncertainly. This shape was descending in cash flow certainly and uncertainly but it is ascending in medial position.

Keywords: dividends, investment, nonlinear relationship, uncertainty of cash flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: Eitan Elaad, Yeela Gal-Gonen

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Two studies examined gender differences in lying when the truth-telling bias prevailed and when inspiring lying and distrust. The first study used 156 participants from the community (78 pairs). First, participants completed the Narcissistic Personality Inventory, the Lie- and Truth Ability Assessment Scale (LTAAS), and the Rational-Experiential Inventory. Then, they participated in a deception game where they performed as senders and receivers of true and false communications. Their goal was to retain as many points as possible according to a payoff matrix that specified the reward they would gain for any possible outcome. Results indicated that males in the sender position lied more and were more successful tellers of lies and truths than females. On the other hand, males, as receivers, trusted less than females but were not better at detecting lies and truths. We explained the results by a. Male's high perceived lie-telling ability. We observed that confidence in telling lies guided participants to increase their use of lies. Male's lie-telling confidence corresponded to earlier accounts that showed a consistent association between high self-assessed lying ability, reports of frequent lying, and predictions of actual lying in experimental settings; b. Male's narcissistic features. Earlier accounts described positive relations between narcissism and reported lying or unethical behavior in everyday life situations. Predictions about the association between narcissism and frequent lying received support in the present study. Furthermore, males scored higher than females on the narcissism scale; and c. Male's experiential thinking style. We observed that males scored higher than females on the experiential thinking style scale. We further hypothesized that the experiential thinking style predicts frequent lying in the deception game. Results confirmed the hypothesis. The second study used one hundred volunteers (40 females) who underwent the same procedure. However, the payoff matrix encouraged lying and distrust. Results showed that male participants lied more than females. We found no gender differences in trust. Males and females did not differ in their success of telling and detecting lies and truths. Participants also completed the LTAAS questionnaire. Males assessed their lie-telling ability higher than females, but the ability assessment did not predict lying frequency. A final note. The present design is limited to low stakes. Participants knew that they were participating in a game, and they would not experience any consequences from their deception in the game. Therefore, we advise caution when applying the present results to lying under high stakes.

Keywords: gender, lying, detection of deception, information processing style, self-assessed lying ability

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Authors: Maryam Hasanali, Syed Mohammad Mojtabaei, Iman Hajirasouliha, G. Charles Clifton, James B. P. Lim

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Cold-formed steel (CFS) elements are increasingly being used as main load-bearing components in the modern construction industry, including low- to mid-rise buildings. In typical multi-storey buildings, CFS structural members act as beam-column elements since they are exposed to combined axial compression and bending actions, both in moment-resisting frames and stud wall systems. Current design specifications, including the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI S100) and the Australian/New Zealand Standard (AS/NZS 4600), neglect the beneficial effects of warping-restrained boundary conditions in the design of beam-column elements. Furthermore, while a non-linear relationship governs the interaction of axial compression and bending, the combined effect of these actions is taken into account through a simplified linear expression combining pure axial and flexural strengths. This paper aims to evaluate the reliability of the well-known Direct Strength Method (DSM) as well as design proposals found in the literature to provide a better understanding of the efficiency of the code-prescribed linear interaction equation in the strength predictions of CFS beam columns and the effects of warping-restrained boundary conditions on their behavior. To this end, the experimentally validated finite element (FE) models of CFS elements under compression and bending were developed in ABAQUS software, which accounts for both non-linear material properties and geometric imperfections. The validated models were then used for a comprehensive parametric study containing 270 FE models, covering a wide range of key design parameters, such as length (i.e., 0.5, 1.5, and 3 m), thickness (i.e., 1, 2, and 4 mm) and cross-sectional dimensions under ten different load eccentricity levels. The results of this parametric study demonstrated that using the DSM led to the most conservative strength predictions for beam-column members by up to 55%, depending on the element’s length and thickness. This can be sourced by the errors associated with (i) the absence of warping-restrained boundary condition effects, (ii) equations for the calculations of buckling loads, and (iii) the linear interaction equation. While the influence of warping restraint is generally less than 6%, the code suggested interaction equation led to an average error of 4% to 22%, based on the element lengths. This paper highlights the need to provide more reliable design solutions for CFS beam-column elements for practical design purposes.

Keywords: beam-columns, cold-formed steel, finite element model, interaction equation, warping-restrained boundary conditions

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Authors: Mohamed Sahli, David Bassir, Thierry Barriere, Xavier Roizard

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Predicting the behaviour of the Ti-6Al-4V alloy during the turning operation was very important in the choice of suitable cutting tools and also in the machining strategies. In this study, a 3D model with thermo-mechanical coupling has been proposed to study the influence of cutting parameters and also lubrication on the performance of cutting tools. The constants of the constitutive Johnson-Cook model of Ti-6Al-4V alloy were identified using inverse analysis based on the parameters of the orthogonal cutting process. Then, numerical simulations of the finishing machining operation were developed and experimentally validated for the cylindrical stock removal stage with the finishing cutting tool.

Keywords: titanium turning, cutting tools, FE simulation, chip

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto, Grazyna Voss

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Accounting policies are a set of solutions compliant with legal regulations that an entity selects and adopts, and which guarantee a proper quality of financial statements. Those solutions may differ depending on whether the entity adopts national or international accounting standards. The aim of this article is to present accounting principles (policies) in Polish and international legal regulations and their adoption in selected Polish companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The research method adopted in this work is the analysis and evaluation of legal conditions in Polish companies.

Keywords: accounting policies, international financial reporting standards, financial statement, method of measuring

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Authors: Harold Vásquez, Cesar Hernández, Ingrid Páez

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This paper approach cognitive radio technic and applied pure proactive handoff Model to decrease interference between PU and SU and comparing it with reactive handoff model. Through the study and analysis of multivariate models SAW and TOPSIS join to 3 dynamic prediction techniques AR, MA ,and ARMA. To evaluate the best model is taken four metrics: number failed handoff, number handoff, number predictions, and number interference. The result presented the advantages using this type of pure proactive models to predict changes in the PU according to the selected channel and reduce interference. The model showed better performance was TOPSIS-MA, although TOPSIS-AR had a higher predictive ability this was not reflected in the interference reduction.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum handoff, decision making, time series, wireless networks

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Authors: Reza Bazargan lari, Mohammad H. Fattahi

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Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for pre-processing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based pre-processing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.

Keywords: wavelet, de-noising, predictability, time series fractal analysis, valid length, ANN

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Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

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Authors: Galal Elkobrosy, Amr M. Abdelrazek, Bassuny M. Elsouhily, Mohamed E. Khidr

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Crank shaft length, connecting rod length, crank angle, engine rpm, cylinder bore, mass of piston and compression ratio are the inputs that can control the performance of the slider crank mechanism and then its efficiency. Several combinations of these seven inputs are used and compared. The throughput engine torque predicted by the simulation is analyzed through two different regression models, with and without interaction terms, developed according to multi-linear regression using LU decomposition to solve system of algebraic equations. These models are validated. A regression model in seven inputs including their interaction terms lowered the polynomial degree from 3^rd degree to 1^st degree and suggested valid predictions and stable explanations.

Keywords: design of experiments, regression analysis, SI engine, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Umer Farooq

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The present work is being presented with a general aim of highlighting the role of protection/propagation of indigenous breeds of livestock in an area as a sustainable tool for poverty alleviation. Specifically, the aim is to introduce a formerly neglected Cholistani breed of cattle being reared by the Cholistani desert nomads of Pakistan. The said work will present a detaile account of research work conducted during the last five years by the author. Furthermore, it will present the performance (productive and reproductive traits) of this breed as being reared under various nomadic systems of the desert. Results will be deducted on the basis of the research work conducted on Cholistani cattle and keeping abreast the latest reforms being provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Initiative to Support Pastoralism (WISP) of the UN. The timely attention towards the protection and propagation of this neglected breed of cattle will pave a smoother way towards poverty alleviation of rural/suburban areas and a successful sustainable agriculture in low input production systems such as Pakistan. The 15 recognized indigenous breeds of cattle constitute 43% of the total livestock population in Pakistan and belong to Zebu cattle. These precious breeds are currently under threat and might disappear even before proper documentation until and unless streamlined efforts are diverted towards them. This horrific state is due to many factors such as epidemic diseases, urbanization, indiscriminate crossing with native stock, misdirected cross breeding with exotic stock/semen, inclined livestock systems from extensive (subsistence) to intensive (commercial), lack of valuation of local breeds, decreasing natural resources, environmental degradation and global warming. Hefty work has been documented on many aspects of Sahiwal and Red Sindhi breeds of cattle in their respective local climates which have rightly gained them an international fame as being the vital tropical milk breeds of Pakistan. However, many other indigenous livestock breeds such as Cholistani cattle being reared under pastoral systems of Cholistan are yet unexplored. The productive and reproductive traits under their local climatic conditions need to be studied and the future researches may be streamlined to manipulate their indigenous potential. The timely attention will pave a smoother way towards poverty alleviation of rural/suburban areas and a successful sustainable agriculture in low input production systems.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, Pakistan, indigenous cattle, Sahiwal cattle, pastoralism

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Authors: Zied Guidara, Alexander Morgenstern, Aref Younes Maalej

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In this paper, a desiccant solar unit for air conditioning and desalination is presented first. Secondly, a dynamic modelling study of the desiccant wheel is developed. After that, a simulation study and an experimental investigation of the behaviour of desiccant wheel are developed. The experimental investigation is done in the chamber of commerce in Freiburg-Germany. Indeed, the variations of calculated and measured temperatures and specific humidity of dehumidified and rejected air are presented where a good agreement is found when comparing the model predictions with experimental data under the considered range of operating conditions. Finally, the study of the compartments of desalination and water condensation shows that the unit can produce an acceptable quantity of water at the same time of the air conditioning operation.

Keywords: air conditioning, desalination, condensation, design, desiccant wheel

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Authors: Sina Moradi, Christopher W. K. Chow, John Van Leeuwen, David Cook, Mary Drikas, Patrick Hayde, Rose Amal

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Chloramine is commonly used as a disinfectant in drinking water distribution systems (DWDSs), particularly in Australia and the USA. Maintaining a chloramine residual throughout the DWDS is important in ensuring microbiologically safe water is supplied at the customer’s tap. In order to simulate how chloramine behaves when it moves through the distribution system, a water quality network model (WQNM) can be applied. In this work, the WQNM was based on mono-chloramine decomposition reactions, which enabled prediction of mono-chloramine residual at different locations through a DWDS in Australia, using the Bentley commercial hydraulic package (Water GEMS). The accuracy of WQNM predictions is influenced by a number of water quality parameters. Optimization of these parameters in order to obtain the closest results in comparison with actual measured data in a real DWDS would result in both cost reduction as well as reduction in consumption of valuable resources such as energy and materials. In this work, the optimum operating conditions of water quality parameters (i.e. temperature, pH, and initial mono-chloramine concentration) to maximize the accuracy of mono-chloramine residual predictions for two water supply scenarios in an entire network were determined using response surface methodology (RSM). To obtain feasible and economical water quality parameters for highest model predictability, Design Expert 8.0 software (Stat-Ease, Inc.) was applied to conduct the optimization of three independent water quality parameters. High and low levels of the water quality parameters were considered, inevitably, as explicit constraints, in order to avoid extrapolation. The independent variables were pH, temperature and initial mono-chloramine concentration. The lower and upper limits of each variable for two water supply scenarios were defined and the experimental levels for each variable were selected based on the actual conditions in studied DWDS. It was found that at pH of 7.75, temperature of 34.16 ºC, and initial mono-chloramine concentration of 3.89 (mg/L) during peak water supply patterns, root mean square error (RMSE) of WQNM for the whole network would be minimized to 0.189, and the optimum conditions for averaged water supply occurred at pH of 7.71, temperature of 18.12 ºC, and initial mono-chloramine concentration of 4.60 (mg/L). The proposed methodology to predict mono-chloramine residual can have a great potential for water treatment plant operators in accurately estimating the mono-chloramine residual through a water distribution network. Additional studies from other water distribution systems are warranted to confirm the applicability of the proposed methodology for other water samples.

Keywords: chloramine decay, modelling, response surface methodology, water quality parameters

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Authors: Hans Schumann, Colin Domnauer, Louis Rosenberg

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In this study, machine learning techniques were deployed on real-time human swarm data to forecast the likelihood of outcomes for English Premier League matches in the 2020/21 season. These techniques included ensemble models in combination with neural networks and were tested against an industry standard of Vegas Oddsmakers. Predictions made from the collective intelligence of human swarm participants managed to achieve a positive return on investment over a full season on matches, empirically proving the usefulness of a new artificial intelligence valuing human instinct and intelligence.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, data science, English Premier League, human swarming, machine learning, sports betting, swarm intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Eleonora Di Mario

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This paper describes the application of ground improvement to replace a typical piled foundation scheme in a power plant in Singapore. Several buildings within the plant were founded on vibro-compacted sand, including a turbine unit which had extremely stringent requirements on the allowable settlement. The achieved savings in terms of cost and schedule are presented. The monitoring data collected during the operation of the turbine are compared to the design predictions to validate the design approach, and the quality of the ground improvement works. In addition, the calculated carbon footprint of the ground improvement works are compared to the piled solution, showing that the vibro-compaction has a significantly lower carbon footprint.

Keywords: ground improvement, vibro-compaction, case study, sustainability, carbon footprint

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Authors: Pallavi Kishore, Mariam Aslam

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The sharp decline in oil prices that started in 2014 affected most economies in the world either positively or negatively. In some economies, particularly the oil exporting countries, the effects were felt immediately. The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC henceforth) countries are oil and gas-dependent with the largest oil reserves in the world. UAE (United Arab Emirates) has been striving to diversify away from oil and expects higher non-oil growth in 2018. These two factors, falling oil prices and the economy strategizing away from oil dependence, make a compelling case to study the financial performance of various sectors in the economy. Among other sectors, the insurance sector is widely recognized as an important indicator of the health of the economy. An expanding population, surge in construction and infrastructure, increased life expectancy, greater expenditure on automobiles and other luxury goods translate to a booming insurance sector. A slow-down of the insurance sector, on the other hand, may indicate a general slow-down in the economy. Therefore, a study on the insurance sector will help understand the general nature of the current economy. This study involves calculations and comparisons of ratios pre and post the fall in oil prices in the insurance sector in the UAE. A sample of 33 companies listed on the official stock exchanges of UAE-Dubai Financial Market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange were collected and empirical analysis employed to study the financial performance pre and post fall in oil prices. Ratios were calculated in 5 categories: Profitability, Liquidity, Leverage, Efficiency, and Investment. The means pre- and post-fall are compared to conclude that the profitability ratios including ROSF (Return on Shareholder Funds), ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) and NPM (Net Profit Margin) have all taken a hit. Parametric tests, including paired t-test, concludes that while the fall in profitability ratios is statistically significant, the other ratios have been quite stable in the period. The efficiency, liquidity, gearing and investment ratios have not been severely affected by the fall in oil prices. This may be due to the implementation of stronger regulatory policies and is a testimony to the diversification into the non-oil economy. The regulatory authorities can use the findings of this study to ensure transparency in revealing financial information to the public and employ policies that will help further the health of the economy. The study will also help understand which areas within the sector could benefit from more regulations.

Keywords: UAE, insurance sector, ratio analysis, oil price, profitability, liquidity, gearing, investment, efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Eylem Guzel, Faruk Osmanoglu, Muhammet Kurucu

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The concrete filled steel tube (CFST) columns are commonly used in construction applications such as high-rise buildings and bridges owing to its lots of remarkable benefits. The use of concrete-filled steel tube columns provides large areas by reduction in cross-sectional area of columns. The main aim of this study is to examine the axial load capacities of circular high strength concrete-filled steel tube columns according to Eurocode 4 (EC4) and Chinese Code (DL/T). The results showed that the predictions of EC4 and Chinese Code DL/T are unsafe for all specimens.

Keywords: concrete-filled steel tube column, axial load capacity, Chinese code, Australian standard

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Y. A. R. Oliveira, M. A. Couto dos Santos, N. B. C. Júnior, S. J. L. Ribeiro, L. D. Carlos

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The Eu(TTA)3(H2O)2 complex (TTA = thenoyltrifluoroacetone) pure (EuTTA) and incorporated in an organicinorganic hybrid material (EuTTA-hyb) are revisited, this time from the crystal field parameters (CFP) and Judd-Ofelt intensity parameters (Ωλ) point of view. A detailed analysis of the emission spectra revealed that the EuTTA phase still remains in the hybrid phase. Sparkle Model calculations of the EuTTA ground state geometry have been performed and satisfactorily compared to the X-ray structure. The observed weaker crystal field strength of the phase generated by the incorporation is promptly interpreted through the existing EXAFS results of the EuTTA-hyb structure. Satisfactory predictions of the CFP, of the 7F1 level splitting and of the Ωλ in all cases were obtained by using the charge factors and polarizabilities as degrees of freedom of non-parametric models.

Keywords: crystal field parameters, europium complexes, Judd-Ofelt intensity parameters

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Authors: Eylem Güzel, Soner Güler, Mustafa Gülen

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Masonry is the oldest building materials since ancient times. Adobe, stone, brick are the most widespread materials used in the construction of masonry buildings. Masonry buildings compose of a large part of building stock especially in rural areas and underdeveloped regions of Turkey. The seismic performance of adobe masonry buildings is vulnerable against earthquake effects. In this study, after 2011 Van earthquake with magnitude 7.2 Mw, damages occurred in existing adobe masonry buildings in Van city is investigated. The observed damages and reasons of adobe masonry buildings in design and construction phase are specified and evaluated.

Keywords: adobe masonry buildings, earthquake effects, damages, seismic performance

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Authors: Cahyaningsih Cahyaningsih, Fu'ad Rakhman

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This study examines empirically the association between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and tax avoidance. This study also investigates the effect of earnings on the relation between CSR and tax avoidance. Effective tax rate (ETR) and cash effective tax rate (CETR) were used to measure tax avoidance. Corporate social responsibility fund (CSRF) and corporate social responsibility disclosure (CSRD) were used as proxies for CSR. Test was conducted for public firms which were listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period of 2011-2014. Based on slack resource theory, this study finds that the relation between CSR and tax avoidance is moderated by earnings.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility disclosure, corporate social responsibility fund, earnings, tax avoidance

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Authors: Firooz Bakhtiari-Nejad, Hamidreza Rostami, Meysam Mirzaee, Mona Zandbaf

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Dynamic tests are an important step of the design of engineering structures, because the accuracy of predictions of theoretical–numerical procedures can be assessed. In experimental test of moving loads that is one of the major research topics, the load is modeled as a simple moving mass or a small vehicle. This paper deals with the applicability of Non-Contact Moving Load (NML) for vibration analysis. For this purpose, an experimental set-up is designed to generate the different types of NML including constant and harmonic. The proposed method relies on pressurized air which is useful, especially when dealing with fragile or sensitive structures. To demonstrate the performance of this system, the set-up is employed for a modal analysis of a beam and detecting crack of the beam. The obtained results indicate that the experimental set-up for NML can be an attractive alternative to the moving load problems.

Keywords: experimental analysis, moving load, non-contact excitation, materials engineering

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Authors: Caihong Sun, Xizi Zhang

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Rating prediction is an important problem for recommender systems. The task is to predict the rating for an item that a user would give. Most of the existing algorithms for the task ignore the effect of negative ratings rated by users on items, but the negative ratings have a significant impact on users’ purchasing decisions in practice. In this paper, we present a rating prediction algorithm based on factorization machines that consider the effect of negative ratings inspired by Loss Aversion theory. The aim of this paper is to develop a concave and a convex negative disgust function to evaluate the negative ratings respectively. Experiments are conducted on MovieLens dataset. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods by comparing with other four the state-of-the-art approaches. The negative ratings showed much importance in the accuracy of ratings predictions.

Keywords: factorization machines, feature engineering, negative ratings, recommendation systems

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Authors: Shoji Katagiri

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This paper is to clarify the relationship between ICT and income inequality. To do so, we develop the general equilibrium model with ICT investment, obtain the equilibrium solutions, and then simulate the model with these solutions for some OECD countries. As a result, generally, during the corresponding periods we confirm that the relationship between ICT investment and income inequality is positive. In this mode, the increment of the ratio of ICT investment to the aggregated investment in stock enhances the capital’s share of income, and finally leads to income inequality such as the increase of the share of the top decile income. Although we confirm the positive relationship between ICT investment and income inequality, the upward trend for that relationship depends on the values of parameters for the making use of the simulations and these parameters are not deterministic in the magnitudes on the calculated results for the simulations.

Keywords: ICT, inequality, capital accumulation, technology

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Authors: Ibrahim Ali, Adamu Danlami Ahmed

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This study examines the impact of depreciation on taxable income and financial performance of consumer goods companies quoted on the Nigerian stock exchange. The study adopts ex-post factor research design. Data were collected using a secondary source. The findings of the study suggest that, method of depreciation adopted in any organization influence the taxable profit. Depreciation techniques can either be: depressive, accelerative and linear depreciation. It was also recommended that consumer goods should adjust their method of depreciation to make sure an appropriate method is adopted. This will go a long way to revitalize their taxable profit.

Keywords: accelerated, linear, depressive, depreciation

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Authors: Mohammad Sarchami, Mohsen Zeinalkhani

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Always, financial reporting system faces some problems to win public ear. The increase in the number of fraud and representation, often combined with the bankruptcy of large companies, has raised concerns about the quality of financial statements. So, investors, legislators, managers, and auditors have focused on significant fraud detection or prevention in financial statements. This article aims to investigate the Sugeno fuzzy classification to consider fraud detection in financial reporting of accepted firms by Tehran stock exchange. The hypothesis is: Sugeno fuzzy classification may detect fraud in financial reporting by financial ratio. Hypothesis was tested using Matlab software. Accuracy average was 81/80 in Sugeno fuzzy classification; so the hypothesis was confirmed.

Keywords: fraud, financial reporting, Sugeno fuzzy classification, firm

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Authors: A. Medjnoun, R. Bahar

Abstract:

The disorders caused by the shrinking-swelling phenomenon are prevalent in arid and semi-arid in the presence of swelling clay. This soil has the characteristic of changing state under the effect of water solicitation (wetting and drying). A set of geotechnical parameters is necessary for the characterization of this soil type, such as state parameters, physical and chemical parameters and mechanical parameters. Some of these tests are very long and some are very expensive, hence the use or methods of predictions. The complexity of this phenomenon and the difficulty of its characterization have prompted researchers to use several identification parameters in the prediction of swelling potential. This document is an analytical and statistical study of geotechnical parameters affecting the potential of swelling clays. This work is performing on a database obtained from investigations swelling Algerian soil. The obtained observations have helped us to understand the soil swelling structure and its behavior.

Keywords: analysis, estimated model, parameter identification, swelling of clay

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