Search results for: risk information weight (RIW)

Authors: Morgan Johansson, Joosef Leppanen, Mathias Flansbjer, Fabio Lozano, Josef Makdesi

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Concrete is commonly used for protective structures and how impact loading affects different types of concrete structures is an important issue. Often the knowledge gained from static loading is also used in the design of impulse loaded structures. A large plastic deformation capacity is essential to obtain a large energy absorption in an impulse loaded structure. However, the structural response of an impact loaded concrete beam may be very different compared to a statically loaded beam. Consequently, the plastic deformation capacity and failure modes of the concrete structure can be different when subjected to dynamic loads; and hence it is not sure that the observations obtained from static loading are also valid for dynamic loading. The aim of this paper is to investigate the residual plastic deformation capacity in reinforced concrete beams subjected to drop weight impact tests. A test-series consisting of 18 simply supported beams (0.1 x 0.1 x 1.18 m, ρs = 0.7%) with a span length of 1.0 m and subjected to a point load in the beam mid-point, was carried out. 2x6 beams were first subjected to drop weight impact tests, and thereafter statically tested until failure. The drop in weight had a mass of 10 kg and was dropped from 2.5 m or 5.0 m. During the impact tests, a high-speed camera was used with 5 000 fps and for the static tests, a camera was used with 0.5 fps. Digital image correlation (DIC) analyses were conducted and from these the velocities of the beam and the drop weight, as well as the deformations and crack propagation of the beam, were effectively measured. Additionally, for the static tests, the applied load and midspan deformation were measured. The load-deformation relations for the beams subjected to an impact load were compared with 6 reference beams that were subjected to static loading only. The crack pattern obtained were compared using DIC, and it was concluded that the resulting crack formation depended much on the test method used. For the static tests, only bending cracks occurred. For the impact loaded beams, though, distinctive diagonal shear cracks also formed below the zone of impact and less wide shear cracks were observed in the region half-way to the support. Furthermore, due to wave propagation effects, bending cracks developed in the upper part of the beam during initial loading. The results showed that the plastic deformation capacity increased for beams subjected to drop weight impact tests from a high drop height of 5.0 m. For beams subjected to an impact from a low drop height of 2.5 m, though, the plastic deformation capacity was in the same order of magnitude as for the statically loaded reference beams. The beams tested were designed to fail due to bending when subjected to a static load. However, for the impact tested beams, one beam exhibited a shear failure at a significantly reduced load level when it was tested statically; indicating that there might be a risk of reduced residual load capacity for impact loaded structures.

Keywords: digital image correlation (DIC), drop weight impact, experiments, plastic deformation capacity, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Tarang Varmora, Krupa Shah, Karan Patel

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Environmental pollution and shortage of conventional fuel are the main concerns in the transportation sector. Most of the vehicles use an internal combustion engine (ICE), powered by gasoline fuels. This results into emission of toxic gases. Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) powered by electric machine and ICE is capable of reducing emission of toxic gases and fuel consumption. However to build HEV, it is required to accommodate motor and batteries in the vehicle along with engine and fuel tank. Thus, overall weight of the vehicle increases. To improve the fuel economy and acceleration, the weight of the HEV can be minimized. In this paper, the design methodology to reduce the weight of the hybrid racing car is proposed. To this end, the chassis design is optimized. Further, attempt is made to obtain the maximum strength with minimum material weight. The best configuration out of the three main configurations such as series, parallel and the dual-mode (series-parallel) is chosen. Moreover, the most suitable type of motor, battery, braking system, steering system and suspension system are identified. The racing car is designed and analyzed in the simulating software. The safety of the vehicle is assured by performing static and dynamic analysis on the chassis frame. From the results, it is observed that, the weight of the racing car is reduced by 11 % without compromising on safety and cost. It is believed that the proposed design and specifications can be implemented practically for manufacturing hybrid racing car.

Keywords: design optimization, hybrid racing car, simulation, vehicle, weight reduction

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Melaku Umeta Deressa, Kaleab Baye

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Background: Maternal and child under-nutrition is the underlying cause of 3•5 million annual deaths, globally. Anemia during pregnancy is among the leading nutritional disorders with serious short and long term consequences to both the mother and fetus. Objective: Examine the effect of dietary diversity on maternal anemia, nutritional status and key pregnancy outcomes of pregnancy. Methods: A prospective cohort study design, involving a total of 432 eligible pregnant women, in their second antenatal care visit was conducted between August 2014 to March, 2015. The individual dietary diversity status of mothers was used as the exposure variable to select, enroll and follow the mothers. All mothers were enrolled during second antenatal care visit and followed until delivery. Epi-data, SPSS and STATA software are used to enter and analyze the data. Chi-square test, independent 't'-test, and GLM are used to calculate risk, association and differences between key variables at P < 0.05. Results: Study participants did not differ in many of the basic characteristics (p < 0.05). The incidence of maternal anemia increased significantly from 28.6% to 32.1% between baseline and term. Pregnant mothers with inadequate dietary diversity groups had more (56% at baseline and 68% at term) risk of anemia than the comparison (adequate) groups, (RR, 1.56 and 1.68; 95% CI, 1.24 - 1.83 and 1.39 - 2.04). The overall incidence of still birth, low birth weight and pre-term birth was 4.5%, 9.1% and 13.6%, respectively. The variation of these outcomes was significant across study groups (P < 0.05). Conclusion and recommendations: Dietary diversity status of pregnant mothers has significant effect on the incidence of anemia and key pregnancy outcomes in resource limited settings, like rural Ethiopia. Therefore, apart from the ongoing routine IFA supplementation, special emphasis should be given to dietary diversity of mothers to improve related outcomes of pregnancy and maternal health.

Keywords: anemia, birth weight, dietary diversity, pregnancy, pregnancy outcome

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Authors: Y. Tahat, T. Dunne, S. Fifield, D. Power

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Information about a firm’s usage of Financial Instruments (FIs) plays a very important role in determining its financial position and performance. Yet accounting standard-setters have encountered problems when deciding on the FI-related disclosures which firms must make. The primary objective of this paper is to review the extant literature on FI disclosure. This objective is achieved by surveying the literature on: the corporate usage of FIs; the different accounting standards adopted concerning FIs; and empirical studies on FI disclosure. This review concludes that the current research on FI disclosure has generated a number of useful insights. In particular, the paper reports that: FIs are a very important risk management mechanism in ensuring that companies have the cash available to make value-enhancing investments, however, without a clear set of risk management objectives, using such instruments can be dangerous; accounting standards concerning FIs have resulted in enhanced transparency about the usage of these instruments; and FI-related information is a key input into investors’ decision-making processes. Finally, the paper provides a number of suggestions for future research in the area.

Keywords: financial instruments, financial reporting, accounting standards, value relevance, corporate disclosure

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Authors: Nura Lawal, Lawal Suleiman Bilbis, Rabiu Aliyu Umar, Anas A. Sabir

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Metabolic syndrome (MS) a high-risk condition involving obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus is prevalent in Nigeria. The study aims to formulate an antioxidant-rich nutraceutical from locally available foodstuff (onion, garlic, ginger, tomato, lemon, palm oil, watermelon seeds) and investigate their effects on blood pressure, body weight, serum glucose, lipid profile, insulin and oxidative stress markers in salt-induced rats. The rats were placed on 8% salt diet for 6 weeks and then supplementation and treatment with nutraceutical and nifedipine in the presence of salt diet for additional 4 weeks. Feeding rats with salt diet for 6 weeks increased blood pressure and body weight of the salt-loaded rats relative to control. Significant (P < 0.001) increase in serum blood glucose and lipid profile, and the decrease in high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) was observed in salt-loaded rats as compared with control. Both supplementation and treatment (nifedipine) lowered the blood pressure but the only supplementation lowered the body weight. Supplementation with nutraceutical resulted in significant (P < 0.001) decrease in the serum blood glucose, lipid profile, malonyldialdehyde (MDA), insulin levels, insulin resistance, and increased HDL-C and antioxidant indices. The percentage protection against atherogenesis was 76.5±2.13%. There is strong positive correlation between blood pressure, body weight and serum blood glucose, lipid profile, markers of oxidative stress and strong negative correlation with HDL-C and antioxidant status. The results suggest that the nutraceuticals are useful in reversing most of the component of metabolic syndrome and might be beneficial in the treatment of patients with metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, hypertension, diabetes mallitus, obesity

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Authors: Abdulmannan Fadel

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Arabinoxylan is a non-starch polysaccharide (NSP), which is one of the most important polysaccharides contained within cereal grains. Wheat endosperm pentosan and rice bran contain a significant amount of arabinoxylan (7% in rice bran and 10-12% in wheat endosperm pentosan). Several methods have been used for arabinoxylan extraction with varying degrees of success e.g. enzymatic and alkaline treatment. Yet, the use of extrusion alone as a pre-treatment to increase the yield and reduce the molecular weight in wheat endosperm pentosan and rice bran has not been investigated. The samples (wheat pentosan and rice bran) were extruded using a Twin-screw extruder at a range of screw speeds (80 and 160 rpm) and barrel temperatures range (80 to 140°C) with a throughput of 30 Kg hr-1 and moisture content of 25%. Arabinoxylans were extracted with water and the extraction yield and molecular weight was determined using size exclusion high-pressure liquid chromatography system. It was found that increasing screw speed from 80 rpm to 160 rpm, did not effect the extraction yield (p < 0.05) of arabinoxylan from either the wheat endosperm pentosan or the rice bran. However, the molecular weight of the extracted arabinoxylans from pentosan was found to decrease with increasing screw speed in wheat endosperm pentosan. These low molecular weight arabinoxylans have been suggested as immunomodulators.

Keywords: arabinoxylans, extrusion, wheat endosperm pentosan, rice bran

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Serges Mendomo Meye, Li Guowei, Shen Zhenzhong, Gan Lei, Xu Liqun

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Given the limitations of the original whale optimization algorithm (WAO) in local optimum and low convergence accuracy in truss structure optimization problems, based on the fundamental whale algorithm, an improved whale optimization algorithm (SWAO) based on information entropy is proposed. The information entropy itself is an uncertain measure. It is used to control the range of whale searches in path selection. It can overcome the shortcomings of the basic whale optimization algorithm (WAO) and can improve the global convergence speed of the algorithm. Taking truss structure as the optimization research object, the mathematical model of truss structure optimization is established; the cross-sectional area of truss is taken as the design variable; the objective function is the weight of truss structure; and an improved whale optimization algorithm (SWAO) is used for optimization design, which provides a new idea and means for its application in large and complex engineering structure optimization design.

Keywords: information entropy, structural optimization, truss structure, whale algorithm

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Umer Malik, David Armstrong, Mark Ashworth, Alex Dregan, Veline L'Esperance, Lucy McDonnell, Mariam Molokhia, Patrick White

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Introduction: The microbiota lining epithelial surfaces is thought to play an important role in many human physiological functions including defense against pathogens and modulation of immune response. The microbiota is susceptible to disruption from external influences such as exposure to antibiotic medication. It is thought that antibiotic-induced disruption of the microbiota could predispose to pathogen overgrowth and invasion. We hypothesized that antibiotic use would be associated with increased risk of future infections. We carried out a systematic review of evidence of associations between antibiotic use and subsequent risk of community-acquired infections. Methods: We conducted a review of the literature for observational studies assessing the association between antibiotic use and subsequent community-acquired infection. Eligible studies were published before April 29th, 2016. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science and screened titles and abstracts using a predefined search strategy. Infections caused by Clostridium difficile, drug-resistant organisms and fungal organisms were excluded as their association with prior antibiotic use has been examined in previous systematic reviews. Results: Eighteen out of 21,518 retrieved studies met the inclusion criteria. The association between past antibiotic exposure and subsequent increased risk of infection was reported in 16 studies, including one study on Campylobacter jejuni infection (Odds Ratio [OR] 3.3), two on typhoid fever (ORs 5.7 and 12.2), one on Staphylococcus aureus skin infection (OR 2.9), one on invasive pneumococcal disease (OR 1.57), one on recurrent furunculosis (OR 16.6), one on recurrent boils and abscesses (Risk ratio 1.4), one on upper respiratory tract infection (OR 2.3) and urinary tract infection (OR 1.1), one on invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infection (OR 1.51), one on infectious mastitis (OR 5.38), one on meningitis (OR 2.04) and five on Salmonella enteric infection (ORs 1.4, 1.59, 1.9, 2.3 and 3.8). The effect size in three studies on Salmonella enteric infection was of marginal statistical significance. A further two studies on Salmonella infection did not demonstrate a statistically significant association between prior antibiotic exposure and subsequent infection. Conclusion: We have found an association between past antibiotic exposure and subsequent risk of a diverse range of infections in the community setting. Our findings provide evidence to support the hypothesis that prior antibiotic usage may predispose to future infection risk, possibly through antibiotic-induced alteration of the microbiota. The findings add further weight to calls to minimize inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions.

Keywords: antibiotic, infection, risk factor, side effect

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Yolanda Indah Permatasari, Sudarsono Hardjosoekarto

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Public private partnership (PPP) scheme was considered as an alternative source of funding for infrastructure provision. However, the performance of PPP scheme and interest of private sector to participate in the provision of infrastructure was still practically low. This phenomenon motivates the research to reconstruct the form of collaborative governance at the policy level from the perspective of transaction cost of the PPP scheme. Soft-system methodology (SSM)-based action research was used as this research methodology. The result of this study concludes that the emergence of transaction cost sources at the policy level is caused by the absence of a law that governs infrastructure investment, especially the implementation of PPP scheme. This absence is causing the imbalance in risk allocation and risk mitigation between the public and private sector. Thus, this research recommended the formulation of infrastructure investment law that aims to minimize asymmetry information, to anticipate the principal-principal problems, and to provide legal basis that ensures risk certainty and guarantee fair risk allocation between public and private sector.

Keywords: public governance, public private partnership, soft system methodology, transaction cost

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Authors: Tim Nedyalkov

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A business decision to move to the cloud brings fundamental changes in how an organization develops and delivers its Information Technology solutions. The accelerated pace of digital transformation across businesses and government agencies increases the reliance on cloud-based services. They are collecting, managing, and retaining large amounts of data in cloud environments makes information security and data privacy protection essential. It becomes even more important to understand what key factors drive successful cloud adoption following the commencement of the Privacy Amendment Notifiable Data Breaches (NDB) Act 2017 in Australia as the regulatory changes impact many organizations and industries. This quantitative correlational research investigated the governance, risk management, and compliance factors contributing to cloud security success. The factors influence the adoption of cloud computing within an organizational context after the commencement of the NDB scheme. The results and findings demonstrated that corporate information security policies, data storage location, management understanding of data governance responsibilities, and regular compliance assessments are the factors influencing cloud computing adoption. The research has implications for organizations, future researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and cloud computing providers to meet the rapidly changing regulatory and compliance requirements.

Keywords: cloud compliance, cloud security, data governance, privacy protection

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Katalin Gocze, Gabriella Kiss, Zsuzsanna Gurdan, Krisztian Kvell, Attila Trabert

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Introduction: On a worldwide scale running has become an increasingly popular leisure time activity during the past decade. Since the participation rate of women has risen significantly the aim of our study was to analyze the mental status, sleeping habits and the prevalence of depression among female runners. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis included the use of validated and globally used surveys for the comprehensive evaluation of insomnia (AIS), depression (BDI), exercise dependence (EDS) and exercise addiction (EAI). Recreational and amateur female runners participating at half-marathon events in Hungary were asked to take part in our pilot study. Results: Participants mean age was 42.03±9.03 years. The prevalence of imsomnia was 18.87%. 60.34% has worries regarding their weight and 43.1% think that they have an actual weight problem. 77.6% stated that their body weight has an influence on their mood. 2.7% displayed borderline clinical depression, the prevalence of mild mood disorders was 10.81%. 17.2% had previously problems with disordered eating. Participants had a mean total EDS score of 46.94±15.55 and a mean total of 13.49±3.80 on EAI. Component scores were the highest for tolerance (a need for increased amounts of exercise to achieve the desired effect or a diminished effect occurs with continued use of the same amount of exercise). Conclusion: Even tough running can help improve mental health, tackle depression and overcome adversity, athletes are at risk of experiencing psychological difficulties which have an impact on their physical perfomance as well. Further research can help initiate targeted educational and screening programs to ensure that female athletes find a path to emotional well-being.

Keywords: depression, eating disorder, exercise addiction, exercise dependence, insomnia, running

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Bassey Odiong Akan

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In recent decades potentially significant changes have taken place in the world of work and these have led to the emergence of new challenges in occupational safety and health. The working environment is now not only wroth with concerns about physical, biological and chemical risks but also emerging risks which are completely new risks that have never been seen before or previously known risks that are evolving in unexpected ways with unanticipated consequences. Psychosocial risk factors and its attendant hazards happen to be one of them and can impact health directly or indirectly, mediated by work-related stress. These risks are related to the way work is designed, organised and managed, as well as the economic and social contexts of work. It has become necessary to identify, explore and anticipate the dynamics of these risks factors and hazards with regards to how it affects women. This presentation is a review of information gathered from books of distinguished authors, research work and scientific/professional journals on the psychosocial work environment intended as a guide to stimulate discussion, raise awareness and encourage research and action at different levels.

Keywords: emerging risks, psychosocial hazards, psychosocial risk factors, work related stress

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Besma Khalfoun

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In many current Human Activity Recognition (HAR) applications, users' data is frequently shared and centrally stored by third parties, posing a significant privacy risk. This practice makes these entities attractive targets for extracting sensitive information about users, including their identity, health status, and location, thereby directly violating users' privacy. To tackle the issue of centralized data storage, a relatively recent paradigm known as federated learning has emerged. In this approach, users' raw data remains on their smartphones, where they train the HAR model locally. However, users still share updates of their local models originating from raw data. These updates are vulnerable to several attacks designed to extract sensitive information, such as determining whether a data sample is used in the training process, recovering the training data with inversion attacks, or inferring a specific attribute or property from the training data. In this paper, we first introduce PUR-Attack, a parameter-based user re-identification attack developed for HAR applications within a federated learning setting. It involves associating anonymous model updates (i.e., local models' weights or parameters) with the originating user's identity using background knowledge. PUR-Attack relies on a simple yet effective machine learning classifier and produces promising results. Specifically, we have found that by considering the weights of a given layer in a HAR model, we can uniquely re-identify users with an attack success rate of almost 100%. This result holds when considering a small attack training set and various data splitting strategies in the HAR model training. Thus, it is crucial to investigate protection methods to mitigate this privacy threat. Along this path, we propose SAFER, a privacy-preserving mechanism based on adaptive local differential privacy. Before sharing the model updates with the FL server, SAFER adds the optimal noise based on the re-identification risk assessment. Our approach can achieve a promising tradeoff between privacy, in terms of reducing re-identification risk, and utility, in terms of maintaining acceptable accuracy for the HAR model.

Keywords: federated learning, privacy risk assessment, re-identification risk, privacy preserving mechanisms, local differential privacy, human activity recognition

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

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Background: Inattentive food choices and engagement in excessive physical activities by male athletes can potentially lead to adverse health consequences. Objective: The aim was to ascertain the occurrence of risk factors associated with the Male Athlete Triad among young elite athletes in Pakistan. Methodology: In 2018, a cross-sectional study based on questionnaires was conducted at the Pakistan Sports Board. The study aimed to explore the risk factors related to the Male Athlete Triad in young elite athletes who were part of national training camps in major metropolitan areas. The study included proficient male elite athletes aged 18 to 25 years, capable of understanding the English questionnaire. The athletes completed a survey encompassing aspects like demographic information, educational background, Body Mass Index (BMI), sports involvement, and hours of participation. Additionally, they filled out the Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and questionnaires assessing risks of amenorrhea and low bone mineral density. The prevalence of risk factors for each of the three components was individually evaluated. The collected data underwent analysis using SPSS-20, with descriptive statistics being applied. Results: The study comprised a sample of 90 elite athletes (mean age: 23.57 ± 2.37 years, mean BMI: 21.97 ± 1.90) engaged in various sports. The EAT-26 results indicated that 50% of athletes were at risk of developing an eating disorder. Moreover, 83.3% exhibited disordered eating behaviors that necessitated referral. Risks for amenorrhea were observed in 15% of the participants, and regarding low bone mineral density, notable risks were absent except for the consumption of caffeinated beverages, which was noted in 51.7% of participants. Conclusion: The study identified a significant prevalence of disordered eating risk among male elite athletes in Pakistan. However, the risks associated with amenorrhea and low bone mineral density were not a major concern in this particular group.

Keywords: 1. health and physical education risk factors male athlete associated with the male athlete traid in young elite athlete from pakistan., 2. sports sciences pakistan, 3. risk factors sports sciences pakistan, 4. triad and young elite athlete from pakistan

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Authors: Santosh Sharma

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Background: Drug abuse, needle sharing, and risky sexual behaviour are often compounded to increase the risk of HIV transmission. Injecting Drug Users are at the duel risk of needle sharing and risky sexual Behaviour, becoming more vulnerable to STI and HIV. Thus, studying the interface of injecting drug use and risky sexual behaviour is important to curb the pace of HIV epidemic among IDUs. The aim of this study is to determine the factor associated with HIV among injecting drug users in three states of India. Materials and methods: This paper analyzes covariates of multiplicity of risk behavior among injecting drug users. Findings are based on data from Integrated Behavioral and Biological Assessment (IBBA) round 2, 2010. IBBA collects the information of IDUs from the six districts. IDUs were selected on the criteria of those who were 18 years or older, who injected addictive substances/drugs for non-medical purposes at least once in past six month. A total of 1,979 in round 2 were interviewed in the IBBA. The study employs quantitative techniques using standard statistical tools to achieve the above objectives. All results presented in this paper are unweighted univariate measures. Results: Among IDUs, average duration of injecting drugs is 5.2 years. Mean duration between first drug use to first injecting drugs among younger IDUs, belongs to 18-24 years is 2.6 years Needle cleaning practices is common with above two-fifths reporting its every time cleaning. Needle sharing is quite prevalent especially among younger IDUs. Further, IDUs practicing needle sharing exhibit pervasive multi-partner behavior. Condom use with commercial partners is almost 81 %, whereas with intimate partner it is 39 %. Coexistence of needle sharing and unprotected sex enhances STI prevalence (6.8 %), which is further pronounced among divorced/separated/widowed (9.4 %). Conclusion: Working towards risk reduction for IDUs must deal with multiplicity of risk. Interventions should deal with covariates of risk, addressing youth, and risky sexual behavior.

Keywords: IDUs, HIV, STI, behaviour

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity and weight gain are associated with increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases and the progression of liver fibrosis. Aspartate transaminase–to-platelet count ratio index (AST-to-PLT, APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) were primarily considered as the formulas capable of differentiating hepatitis from cirrhosis. Recently, they have found clinical use as measures of liver fibrosis and cardiovascular risk. However, their status in children has not been evaluated in detail yet. The aim of this study is to determine APRI and FIB-4 status in obese (OB) children and compare them with values found in children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). A total of sixty-eight children examined in the outpatient clinics of the Pediatrics Department in Tekirdag Namik Kemal University Medical Faculty were included in the study. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, thirty-five children with N-BMI, whose age- and sex-dependent BMI indices vary between 15 and 85 percentiles, were evaluated. The second group comprised thirty-three OB children whose BMI percentile values were between 95 and 99. Anthropometric measurements and routine biochemical tests were performed. Using these parameters, values for the related indices, BMI, APRI, and FIB-4, were calculated. Appropriate statistical tests were used for the evaluation of the study data. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p<0.05. In the OB group, values found for APRI and FIB-4 were higher than those calculated for the N-BMI group. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the N-BMI and OB groups in terms of APRI and FIB-4. A similar pattern was detected for triglyceride (TRG) values. The correlation coefficient and degree of significance between APRI and FIB-4 were r=0.336 and p=0.065 in the N-BMI group. On the other hand, they were r=0.707 and p=0.001 in the OB group. Associations of these two indices with TRG have shown that this parameter was strongly correlated (p<0.001) both with APRI and FIB-4 in the OB group, whereas no correlation was calculated in children with N-BMI. Triglycerides are associated with an increased risk of fatty liver, which can progress to severe clinical problems such as steatohepatitis, which can lead to liver fibrosis. Triglycerides are also independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In conclusion, the lack of correlation between TRG and APRI as well as FIB-4 in children with N-BMI, along with the detection of strong correlations of TRG with these indices in OB children, was the indicator of the possible onset of the tendency towards the development of fatty liver in OB children. This finding also pointed out the potential risk for cardiovascular pathologies in OB children. The nature of the difference between APRI vs FIB-4 correlations in N-BMI and OB groups (no correlation versus high correlation), respectively, may be the indicator of the importance of involving age and alanine transaminase parameters in addition to AST and PLT in the formula designed for FIB-4.

Keywords: APRI, children, FIB-4, obesity, triglycerides

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Authors: Sunita Patel

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Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity as well as mortality in India. Objective of this study is to examine CVDs prevalence and identify their behavioral and cultural risk factors with the help of SAGE-2007 data conducted on 6th states in India. Findings reveal that 18.3% of people diagnosed with CVDs in India. Higher disease occurs in an increasing rate between ages of 30-39 having OR 2.45 (CI: 1.66-3.63) and 70+ age OR 7.45 (CI: 4.82-11.49) times higher compare to 18-29 age group respectively. Wealth quintile higher CVD occurs as 3rd in 60% (CI: 1.16-2.21) and in richest 5th quintile 58% (CI: 1.13-2.21) contrast to lowest quintile. Relative risk depicted that 22.4% in moderate and 44% in vigorous activity have less chance of diseases compare to who performed no work and those who consumed alcohol. Results reveal that policy prospect should be recommended and that it would be beneficial for awareness of people and their future.

Keywords: behavioral risk, cultural risk, cardio-vascular diseases, wealth quintile

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Authors: Mohamed Fairooz Abdul Khir

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The linkage between liability for risk and legitimacy of reward is a governing principle that must be fully observed in financial transactions. It is the cornerstone of any Islamic business or financial deal. The absence of risk taking principle may give rise to numerous prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and gambling that violate the objectives of financial transactions. However, fiqhī domains from which it emanates have not been clearly spelled out by the scholars. In addition, the concept of risk taking in relation to contemporary risks associated with financial contracts, such as credit risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and market risk, needs further scrutiny as regard their Sharīʿah bases. Hence, this study is imperatively significant to prove that absence of risk taking concept in Islamic financial instruments give rise to prohibited elements particularly ribā. This study is primarily intended to clarify the concept of risk in Islamic financial transactions from the fiqhī perspective and evaluate analytically the selected issues involving risk taking based on the established concept of risk taking from fiqhī viewpoint. The selected issues are amongst others charging cost of fund on defaulting customers, holding the lessee liable for total loss of leased asset under ijārah thumma al-bayʿ and capital guarantee under mushārakah based instruments. This is a library research in which data has been collected from various materials such as classical fiqh books, regulators’ policy guidelines and journal articles. This study employed deductive and inductive methods to analyze the data critically in search for conclusive findings. It suggests that business risks have to be evaluated based on their subjects namely (i) property (māl) and (ii) work (ʿamal) to ensure that Islamic financial instruments structured based on certain Sharīʿah principles are not diverted from the risk taking concept embedded in them. Analysis of the above selected cases substantiates that when risk taking principle is breached, the prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and maysir do arise and that they impede the realization of the maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah intended from Islamic financial contracts.

Keywords: Islamic finance, ownership risk, ribā, risk taking

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Authors: Yuan Tian, Benhe Gao

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This paper aims to investigate a two stage supply chain of one leading supplier and one following retailer that experiences two factors perturbation out of supplier's production cost, retailer's marginal cost and retail price in stochastic demand environment. Granted that risk neutral condition has long been discussed, little attention has been given to disruptions under the premise of risk neutral supplier and risk aversion retailer. We establish the optimal order quantity and revealed the profit distribution coefficient in risk-neutral static model, make adjustment under disruption scenario, and then select utility function method for risk aversion model. Using buy-back contract policy, the improvement of parameters can achieve channel coordination where Pareto optimal is realized.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, disruption management, buy-back contract, lose aversion

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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