Search results for: probabilistic thinking

Authors: Lindsay Foreman

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Introduction: Goals have become synonymous with the quest for the good life and the pursuit of happiness, with coaching and positive psychology gaining popularity as an approach in recent decades. And yet mental health is on the rise and the leading cause of disability, wellbeing is on the decline, stress is leading to 50-60% of workday absences and the need for action is indisputable and urgent. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to better understand two things we cannot see, but that play the most significant role in these outcomes - what we think and how we feel. With many working on the assumption that positive thinking and an optimistic outlook are necessary or valuable components of goal pursuit, this study uncovers the reality of the ‘inner-game’ from the coachee's perspective. Method: With a mixed methods design using a Q Method study of subjectivity to ‘make the unseen seen’. First, a wide-ranging universe of subjective thoughts and feelings experienced during goal pursuit are explored. These are generated from literature and a Qualtrics survey to create a Q-Set of 40 statements. Then 19 participants in professional and organisational settings offer their perspectives on these 40 Q-Set statements. Each rank them in a semi-forced distribution from ‘most like me’ to ‘least like me’ using Q-Sort software. From these individual perspectives, clusters of perspectives are identified using factor analysis and four distinct viewpoints have emerged. Findings: These Goal Pursuit Viewpoints offer insight into the states and self-talk experienced by coachees and may not reflect the assumption of positive thinking associated with achieving goals. The four Viewpoints are 1) the Optimistic View, 2) the Realistic View 3) The Dreamer View and 4) The Conflicted View. With only a quarter of the Dreamer View, and a third of the Optimistic view going on to achieve their goals, these assumptions need review. And with all the Realistic Views going on to achieve their goals, the role of self-doubt, overwhelm and anxiousness in goal achievement cannot be overlooked. Contribution: This study offers greater insight and understanding of people's inner experiences as they pursue goals and highlights the necessary and normal negative states associated with goal achievement. It also offers a practical tool of the Q-set statements to help coaches and coachees explore the current state and help navigate the journey towards goal achievement. It calls into question whether goals should always be part of coaching and if values, identity, and purpose may play a greater role than goals.

Keywords: coaching, goals, positive psychology, mindset, leadership, mental health, beliefs, cognition, emotional intelligence

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Authors: Benmansour Nassima, Benmansour Souheyla

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The appropriate integration of reward processing and decision making provided by the environment is vital for behavioural success and individuals’ well being in everyday life. Functional neurological investigation has already provided an inclusive image on affective and emotional (motivational) processing in the healthy human brain and has recently focused its interest also on the assessment of brain function in anxious and depressed individuals. This article offers an overview on the theoretical approaches that relate emotion and decision-making, and spotlights investigation with anxious or depressed individuals to reveal how emotions can interfere with decision-making. This research aims at incorporating the emotional structure based on response and stimulation with a Bayesian approach to decision-making in terms of probability and value processing. It seeks to show how studies of individuals with emotional dysfunctions bear out that alterations of decision-making can be considered in terms of altered probability and value subtraction. The utmost objective is to critically determine if the probabilistic representation of belief affords could be a critical approach to scrutinize alterations in probability and value representation in subjective with anxiety and depression, and draw round the general implications of this approach.

Keywords: decision-making, motivation, alteration, reward processing, response selection

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

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In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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Magnesium alloy has been widely used in structure such as an automobile. It is necessary to consider probabilistic characteristics of a structural material because a fatigue behavior of a structure has a randomness and uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to find the characteristics of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the grown crack size at a specified fatigue crack propagation life and to investigate a statistical crack propagation in magnesium alloys. The statistical fatigue data of the grown crack size are obtained through the fatigue crack propagation (FCP) tests under different maximum fatigue load conditions conducted on the replicated specimens of magnesium alloys. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used to find the CDF of grown crack size. The CDF of grown crack size in case of larger maximum fatigue load has longer tail in below 10 percent and above 90 percent. The fatigue failure occurs easily as the tail of CDF of grown crack size becomes long. The fatigue behavior under the larger maximum fatigue load condition shows more rapid propagation and failure mode.

Keywords: cumulative distribution function, fatigue crack propagation, grown crack size, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load

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Authors: Constanza A. Barriga, Rafael Bernardi, Amokrane Berdja, Christian D. Guzman

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Most image restoration methods in astronomy rely upon probabilistic tools that infer the best solution for a deconvolution problem. They achieve good performances when the point spread function (PSF) is spatially invariable in the image plane. However, this latter condition is not always satisfied with real optical systems. PSF angular variations cannot be evaluated directly from the observations, neither be corrected at a pixel resolution. We have developed a method for the restoration of images affected by static and anisotropic aberrations using deep neural networks that can be directly applied to sky images. The network is trained using simulated sky images corresponding to the T-80 telescope optical system, an 80 cm survey imager at Cerro Tololo (Chile), which are synthesized using a Zernike polynomial representation of the optical system. Once trained, the network can be used directly on sky images, outputting a corrected version of the image, which has a constant and known PSF across its field-of-view. The method was tested with the T-80 telescope, achieving better results than with PSF deconvolution techniques. We present the method and results on this telescope.

Keywords: aberrations, deep neural networks, image restoration, variable point spread function, wide field images

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Authors: Allen A. Espinosa, Larkins A. Trinidad

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The present study investigated collegiate students’ problem solving strategies and misconceptions in solving stoichiometric problems and later on formulate a teaching framework from the result of the study. The study found out that the most prominent strategies among students are the mole method and the proportionality method, which are both algorithmic by nature. Misconception was also noted as some students rely on Avogadro’s number in converting between moles. It is suggested therefore that the teaching of stoichiometry should not be confined to demonstration. Students should be involved in the process of thinking of ways to solve the problem.

Keywords: stoichiometry, Svogadro’s number, mole method, proportionality method

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Authors: Congping Lin

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Intracellular transport in fungi has a number of important roles in, e.g., filamentous fungal growth and cellular metabolism. Two basic mechanisms for intracellular transport are motor-driven trafficking along microtubules (MTs) and diffusion. Mathematical modelling has been actively developed to understand such intracellular transport and provide unique insight into cellular complexity. Based on live-cell imaging data in Ustilago hyphal cells, probabilistic models have been developed to study mechanism underlying spatial organization of molecular motors and organelles. In particular, anther mechanism - stochastic motility of dynein motors along MTs has been found to contribute to half of its accumulation at hyphal tip in order to support early endosome (EE) recycling. The EE trafficking not only facilitates the directed motion of peroxisomes but also enhances their diffusive motion. Considering the importance of spatial organization of early endosomes in supporting peroxisome movement, computational and experimental approaches have been combined to a whole-cell level. Results from this interdisciplinary study promise insights into requirements for other membrane trafficking systems (e.g., in neurons), but also may inform future 'synthetic biology' studies.

Keywords: intracellular transport, stochastic process, molecular motors, spatial organization

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Authors: Gohar Marikyan

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This article is about investigating how to effectively use visuals in teaching introductory mathematics. The analysis showed the use of visuals in teaching introductory mathematics can be an effective tool for enhancing students’ learning and engagement in mathematics. The use of visuals was particularly effective for teaching concepts of numbers, operations with whole numbers, and properties of operations. The analysis also provides strong evidence that the effectiveness of visuals varied depending on the way the visuals are used. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that the use of visuals in mathematics instruction had a positive impact on student’s attitudes toward mathematics, with students showing higher levels of motivation and enjoyment in mathematics classes.

Keywords: analytical thinking skills, instructional strategies with visuals, introductory mathematics, student engagement and motivation

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Authors: Lamia Emam

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The attractiveness of entrepreneurship education stems from its perceived value as a venue through which students can develop an entrepreneurial mindset, skill set, and practice, which may not necessarily lead to them starting a new business, but could, more importantly, be manifested as a life skill that could be applied to all types of organizations and career endeavors. This, in turn, raises important questions about what happens in our classrooms; our role as educators, the role of students, center of learning, and the instructional approach; all of which eventually contribute to achieving the desired EE outcomes. With application to an undergraduate entrepreneurship course -Entrepreneurship as Practice- the current paper aims to explore the effect of entrepreneurship education on the development of students’ general entrepreneurial tendencies. Towards that purpose, the researcher herein uses a pre-test and post-test quasi-experimental research design where the Durham University General Enterprising Tendency Test (GET2) is administered to the same group of students before and after course delivery. As designed and delivered, the Entrepreneurship as Practice module is a highly applied and experiential course where students are required to develop an idea for a start-up while practicing the entrepreneurship-related knowledge, mindset, and skills that are taught in class, both individually and in groups. The course is delivered using a combination of short lectures, readings, group discussions, case analysis, guest speakers, and, more importantly, actively engaging in a series of activities that are inspired by diverse methods for developing successful and innovative business ideas, including design thinking, lean-start up and business feasibility analysis. The instructional approach of the course particularly aims at developing the students' critical thinking, reflective, analytical, and creativity-based problem-solving skills that are needed to launch one’s own start-up. The analysis and interpretation of the experiment’s outcomes shall simultaneously incorporate the views of both the educator and students. As presented, the study responds to the rising call for the application of experimental designs in entrepreneurship in general and EE in particular. While doing so, the paper presents an educator’s perspective of EE to complement the dominant stream of research which is constrained to the students’ point of view. Finally, the study sheds light on EE in the MENA region, where the study is applied.

Keywords: entrepreneurship education, andragogy and heutagogy, scholarship of teaching and learning, experiment

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Authors: Renaud Gaucher

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Research on happiness has developed significantly in the past fifty years and economics and the political science are starting to be influenced by advances in the field. Until recently, finance has stayed outside this movement. The goal of our research is to integrate finance into this movement conceptually. We explain the why, the what and the how of the finance of happiness. We then study the relationship between corporate finance and happiness. We discuss the optimization of the relationship between the financial performance of a firm and the happiness at work of its employees, and the reduction of financial risk by developing goods that foster the happiness of their users. Finally we look at the development of happiness investment funds, that is investment funds founded on happiness research, and the best ways to share risks and earnings to build a happier society.

Keywords: finance, happiness, investment fund, risk

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Authors: Matthew J. I. Woolley, Gemma J. M. Read, Paul M. Salmon, Natassia Goode

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The significance of high consequence, workplace failures within construction continues to resonate with a combined average of 12 fatal incidents occurring daily throughout Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Within the Australian construction domain, more than 35 serious, compensable injury incidents are reported daily. These alarming figures, in conjunction with the continued occurrence of fatal and serious, occupational injury incidents globally suggest existing approaches to incident analysis may not be achieving required injury prevention outcomes. One reason may be that, incident analysis methods used in construction have not kept pace with advances in the field of safety science and are not uncovering the full range system-wide contributory factors that are required to achieve optimal levels of construction safety performance. Another reason underpinning this global issue may also be the absence of information surrounding the construction operating and project delivery system. For example, it is not clear who shares the responsibility for construction safety in different contexts. To respond to this issue, to the author’s best knowledge, a first of its kind, control structure model of the construction industry is presented and then used to analyse a fatal construction incident. The model was developed by applying and extending the Systems Theoretic and Incident Model and Process method to hierarchically represent the actors, constraints, feedback mechanisms, and relationships that are involved in managing construction safety performance. The Causal Analysis based on Systems Theory (CAST) method was then used to identify the control and feedback failures involved in the fatal incident. The conclusions from the Coronial investigation into the event are compared with the findings stemming from the CAST analysis. The CAST analysis highlighted additional issues across the construction system that were not identified in the coroner’s recommendations, suggested there is a potential benefit in applying a systems theory approach to incident analysis in construction. The findings demonstrate the utility applying systems theory-based methods to the analysis of construction incidents. Specifically, this study shows the utility of the construction control structure and the potential benefits for project leaders, construction entities, regulators, and construction clients in controlling construction performance.

Keywords: construction project management, construction performance, incident analysis, systems thinking

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Authors: Nino Naneishvili

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The study of religious minorities and their musical culture has attracted scant academic attention in Georgia. Within wider Georgian society, it would seem that the focus of discourse to date has been on the traditional orthodox religion and its musical expression, with other forms of religious expression regarded as intrinsically less valuable. The goal of this article is to study Georgia's different religious and musical picture which, this time, is presented on the example of the Pentecostals. The first signs of the Pentecostal movement originated at the end of the 19th Century in the USA, and first appeared in Georgia as early as 1914. An ethnomusicological perspective allows the use of anthropological and sociological approaches. The basic methodology is an ethnographic method. This involved attending religious services, observation, in-depth interviews and musical material analysis. This analysis, based on a combined use of various theoretical and methodological approaches, reveals that Georgian Pentecostals, apart from polyphonic singing, are characterised by “ bi-musicality.“ This phenomenon together with Georgian three part polyphony combines vocalisation within “social polyphony.“ The concept of back stage and front stage is highlighted. Chanters also try to express national identity. In some cases however it has been observed that they abandon or conceal certain musical forms of expression which are considered central to Georgian identity. The famous hymn “Thou art a Vineyard” is a case in point. The reason given for this omission within the Georgian Pentecostal church is that within Pentecostal doctrine, God alone is the object of worship. Therefore there is no veneration of Saints as representatives of the Divine. In some cases informants denied the existence of this hymn, and others explain that the meaning conveyed to the Vineyard is that of Jesus Christ and not the Virgin Mary. Others stated that they loved Virgin Mary and were therefore free to sing this song outside church circles. The results of this study illustrates that one of the religious minorities in Georgia, the Pentecostals, are characterised by a deviation in musical thinking from Homo Polyphonicus. They actively change their form of musical worship to secondary ethno hearing – bi-musicality. This outcome is determined by both new religious thinking and the process of globalization. A significant principle behind this form of worship is the use of forms during worship which are acceptable and accessible to all. This naturally leads to the development of modern forms. Obtained material does not demonstrate a connection between traditional religious music in general. Rather, it constitutes an independent domain.

Keywords: Georgia, globalization, music, pentecostal

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Authors: Arpita Sabat, Kanaklata Samal

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A child is the most innocent being on the earth. It is born innocent but the family, the community, the institution and the world at large always butcher its innocence. This paper aims at the role of family for the development of a child in different ethnic or social groups. Family, in fact, is the nucleus in the growth and development of the child. A child grows up with the idea that a family is the world around him. The child tries to emulate consciously or unconsciously from the surrounding. This imitation has serious impact on the development of the child. It even sometimes cripples or stunts the growth of a mind. It results in the disability of the child. All policies about education or changing of curriculum can not bring about a change in the plight of a child’s life unless there is a serious thinking about the role of a family and the contribution of a family to the development of a child.

Keywords: vulnerable child, grooming, surrounding, role of family

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Authors: Julia Wimmers-Klick

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In the contemporary study of anatomy, medical students utilize a diverse array of resources, including lab handouts, lectures, and, increasingly, digital media such as interactive anatomy apps and digital images. Notably, a significant shift has occurred, with fewer students possessing traditional anatomy atlases or books, reflecting a broader trend towards digital approaches like Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, and web-based programs. This paper seeks to explore the evolution of anatomy education by contrasting current digital tools with historical resources, such as classical anatomical illustrations and atlases, to assess their relevance and potential benefits in modern medical education. Through a comprehensive literature review, the development of anatomical illustrations is traced from the textual descriptions of Galen to the detailed and artistic representations of Da Vinci, Vesalius, and later anatomists. The examination includes how the printing press facilitated the dissemination of anatomical knowledge, transforming covert dissections into public spectacles and formalized teaching practices. Historical illustrations, often influenced by societal, religious, and aesthetic contexts, not only served educational purposes but also reflected the prevailing medical knowledge and ethical standards of their times. Critical questions are raised about the place of historical illustrations in today's anatomy curriculum. Specifically, their potential to teach critical thinking, highlight the history of medicine, and offer unique insights into past societal conditions are explored. These resources are viewed in their context, including the lack of diversity and the presence of ethical concerns, such as the use of illustrations from unethical sources like Pernkopf’s atlas. In conclusion, while digital tools offer innovative ways to visualize and interact with anatomical structures, historical illustrations provide irreplaceable value in understanding the evolution of medical knowledge and practice. The study advocates for a balanced approach that integrates traditional and modern resources to enrich medical education, promote critical thinking, and provide a comprehensive understanding of anatomy. Future research should investigate the optimal combination of these resources to meet the evolving needs of medical learners and the implications of the digital shift in anatomy education.

Keywords: human anatomy, historical illustrations, historical context, medical education

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Authors: Naser Safdarian, Nader Jafarnia Dabanloo

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In this paper we used four features i.e. Q-wave integral, QRS complex integral, T-wave integral and total integral as extracted feature from normal and patient ECG signals to detection and localization of myocardial infarction (MI) in left ventricle of heart. In our research we focused on detection and localization of MI in standard ECG. We use the Q-wave integral and T-wave integral because this feature is important impression in detection of MI. We used some pattern recognition method such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to detect and localize the MI. Because these methods have good accuracy for classification of normal and abnormal signals. We used one type of Radial Basis Function (RBF) that called Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) because of its nonlinearity property, and used other classifier such as k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Naive Bayes Classification. We used PhysioNet database as our training and test data. We reached over 80% for accuracy in test data for localization and over 95% for detection of MI. Main advantages of our method are simplicity and its good accuracy. Also we can improve accuracy of classification by adding more features in this method. A simple method based on using only four features which extracted from standard ECG is presented which has good accuracy in MI localization.

Keywords: ECG signal processing, myocardial infarction, features extraction, pattern recognition

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Authors: Zuoji Huang, Haiming Qian, Chunlin Wang, Jinyan Sun, Nan Xu

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In this paper, the strategy to extract double road edge lines from acquired road stripe image was explored. The workflow is as follows: the road stripes are acquired by probabilistic boosting tree algorithm and morphological algorithm immediately, and road centerlines are detected by thinning algorithm, so the initial road edge lines can be acquired along the road centerlines. Then we refine the results with big variation of local curvature of centerlines. Specifically, the energy function of edge line is constructed by gradient feature and spectral information, and Dijkstra algorithm is used to optimize the initial road edge lines. The Snake model is constructed to solve the fracture problem of intersection, and the discrete dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve the model. After that, we could get the final road network. Experiment results show that the strategy proposed in this paper can be used to extract the continuous and smooth road edge lines from high-resolution remote sensing images with an accuracy of 88% in our study area.

Keywords: road edge lines extraction, energy function, intersection fracture, Snake model

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Authors: S. Benchelha, H. C. Aoudjehane, M. Hakdaoui, R. El Hamdouni, H. Mansouri, T. Benchelha, M. Layelmam, M. Alaoui

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The logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MarSpline) are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility map in Oudka, Morocco, using geographical information system. From spatial database containing data such as landslide mapping, topography, soil, hydrology and lithology, the eight factors related to landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to road, distance to faults, lithology map and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by the two mentioned methods. Before the calculation, this database was divided into two parts, the first for the formation of the model and the second for the validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates to evaluate the quality of these probabilistic models. The result of this verification was that the MarSpline model is the best model with a success rate (AUC = 0.963) and a prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) higher than the LR model (success rate AUC = 0.918, rate prediction AUC = 0.901).

Keywords: landslide susceptibility mapping, regression logistic, multivariate adaptive regression spline, Oudka, Taounate

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Authors: Babak Salekmahdy

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Microfinance is often seen as a means of repairing credit markets and unleashing the potential contribution of impoverished people who rely on self-employment. Since the 1990s, the microfinance industry has expanded rapidly, opening the path for additional kinds of social entrepreneurship and social investment. However, current data indicate relatively few average consumer effects, opposing pushback against microfinance. This research reconsiders microfinance statements, stressing the variety of data on impacts and the essential (but limited) role of reimbursements. The report finishes by explaining a shift in thinking: from microfinance as a strictly defined enterprise finance to microfinance as a more widely defined home finance. Microfinance, under this perspective, provides advantages by providing liquidity for various requirements rather than just by increasing income.

Keywords: microfinance, small business, economic development, credit markets

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Authors: Guilherme Gorgulho, Carlos Roberto Camello Lima

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Critical success factors (CSF) are used to design the practice of project management that can lead directly or indirectly to the success of the project. This management includes many elements that have to be synchronized in order to ensure the project on-time delivery, quality and the lowest possible cost. The objective of this work is to develop a proposal for evaluation of the FCS in lean manufacturing projects, and apply the evaluation in a pilot project. The results show that the use of continuous improvement programs in organizations brings benefits as the process cost reduction and improve productivity.

Keywords: continuous improvement, critical success factors (csf), lean thinking, project management

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

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Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Bayesian network, classification, expert knowledge, structure learning, surface water analysis

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Christiane H. Kellner, Sarah Reker

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The UN-Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which Germany also ratified, postulates the necessity of user-centred design, especially when it comes to evaluating the individual needs and wishes of all citizens. Therefore, a multidimensional approach is required. Based on this insight, the structure of the town-like centre in Schönbrunn - a large residential complex and service provider for persons with disabilities in the outskirts of Munich - will be remodelled to open up the community to all people as well as transform social space. This strategy should lead to more equal opportunities and open the way for a much more diverse community. The research project “Index for participation development and quality of life for persons with disabilities” (TeLe-Index, 2014-2016), which is anchored at the Technische Universität München in Munich and at the Franziskuswerk Schönbrunn supports this transformation process called “Vision 2030”. In this context, we have provided academic supervision and support for three projects (the construction of a new school, inclusive housing for children and teenagers with disabilities and the professionalization of employees using person-centred planning). Since we cannot present all the issues of the umbrella-project within the conference framework, we will be focusing on one sub-project more in-depth, namely “The Person-Centred Think Tank” [Arbeitskreis Personenzentriertes Denken; PZD]. In the context of person-centred thinking (PCT), persons with disabilities are encouraged to (re)gain or retain control of their lives through the development of new choice options and the validation of individual lifestyles. PCT should thus foster and support both participation and quality of life. The project aims to establish PCT as a fundamental approach for both employees and persons with disabilities in the institution through in-house training for the staff and, subsequently, training for users. Hence, for the academic support and supervision team, the questions arising from this venture can be summed up as follows: (1) has PCT already gained a foothold at the Franziskuswerk Schönbrunn? And (2) how does it affect the interaction with persons with disabilities and how does it influence the latter’s everyday life? According to the holistic approach described above, the target groups for this study are both the staff and the users of the institution. Initially, we planned to implement the group discussion method for both target-groups. However, in the course of a pretest with persons with intellectual disabilities, it became clear that this type of interview, with hardly any external structuring, provided only limited feedback. In contrast, when the discussions were moderated, there was more interaction and dialogue between the interlocutors. Therefore, for this target-group, we introduced structured group interviews. The insights we have obtained until now will enable us to present the intermediary results of our evaluation. We analysed and evaluated the group interviews and discussions with the help of qualitative content analysis according to Mayring in order to obtain information about users’ quality of life. We sorted out the statements relating to quality of life obtained during the group interviews into three dimensions: subjective wellbeing, self-determination and participation. Nevertheless, the majority of statements were related to subjective wellbeing and self-determination. Thus, especially the limited feedback on participation clearly demonstrates that the lives of most users do not take place beyond the confines of the institution. A number of statements highlighted the fact that PCT is anchored in the everyday interactions within the groups. However, the implementation and fostering of PCT on a broader level could not be detected and thus remain further aims of the project. The additional interviews we have planned should validate the results obtained until now and open up new perspectives.

Keywords: person-centered thinking, research with persons with disabilities, residential complex and service provider, participation, self-determination.

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Authors: Netta Horesh Reinman

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The inability to communicate feelings and thoughts to people close to oneself may be an important risk factor for suicidal behavior. This inability has been operationalized in the concept of “self-disclosure.” The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the correlation of self-disclosure with suicidal behavior in adolescents. Eighty consecutive admissions to an adolescent psychiatric inpatient unit were evaluated. Thirty-four were suicide attempters, 18 were suicidal ideators, and 18 were non-suicidal. Assessment measures included the Child Suicide Potential Scale, the Suicide Intent Scale, the Suicide Ideation Scale, and the Self-Disclosure Scale. The results show that low self-disclosure levels are associated with suicidal thinking, suicide attempts and suicidal attitudes. Thus, low self-disclosure may well be a risk factor worthy of further evaluation in the attempt to understand adolescent suicidal behavior.

Keywords: self disclosure, suicide, adolescents, treatment

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Authors: Rafi Ullah, Shah Muhammad Emaduddin, Taha Jilani

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Vehicle Adhoc Networks (VANET) belongs to a special class of Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET) with high mobility. Network is created by road side vehicles equipped with communication devices like GPS and Wifi etc. Since the environment is highly dynamic due to difference in speed and high mobility of vehicles and weak stability of the network connection, it is a challenging task to design an efficient routing protocol for such an unstable environment. Our proposed algorithm uses heuristic for the calculation of optimal path for routing the packet efficiently in collaboration with several other parameters like geographical location, speed, priority, the distance among the vehicles, communication range, and networks congestion. We have incorporated probabilistic, heuristic and machine learning based approach inconsistency with the relay function of the memory buffer to keep the packet moving towards the destination. These parameters when used in collaboration provide us a very strong and admissible heuristics. We have mathematically proved that the proposed technique is efficient for the routing of packets, especially in a medical emergency situation. These networks can be used for medical emergency, security, entertainment and routing purposes.

Keywords: heuristics routing, intelligent routing, VANET, route optimization

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Authors: Susana Barreto

Abstract:

This paper explores a pedagogical exercise that employs family photos as catalysts for teaching visual analysis and inspiring academic writing among MA students. The study aimed to achieve two primary objectives: to impart students with the skills of analyzing images or artifacts and to ignite their writing for research purposes. Conducted at Viana Polytechnic in Portugal, the exercise involved two classes on Arts Management and Art Education Master course comprising approximately twenty students from diverse academic backgrounds, including Economics, Design, Fine Arts, and Sociology, among others. The exploratory exercise involved selecting an old family photo, analyzing its content and context, and deconstructing the chosen images in an intuitive and systematic manner. Students were encouraged to engage in photo elicitation, seeking insights from family/friends to gain multigenerational perspectives on the images. The feedback received from this exercise was consistently positive, largely due to the personal connection students felt with the objects of analysis. Family photos, with their emotional significance, fostered deeper engagement and motivation in the learning process. Furthermore, visual analysing family photos stimulated critical thinking as students interpreted the composition, subject matter, and potential meanings embedded in the images. This practice enhanced their ability to comprehend complex visual representations and construct compelling visual narratives, thereby facilitating the writing process. The exercise also facilitated the identification of patterns, similarities, and differences by comparing different family photos, leading to a more comprehensive analysis of visual elements and themes. Throughout the exercise, students found analyzing their own photographs both enjoyable and insightful. They progressed through preliminary analysis, explored content and context, and artfully interwove these components. Additionally, students experimented with various techniques such as converting photos to black and white, altering framing angles, and adjusting sizes to unveil hidden meanings.The methodology employed included observation, documental analysis of written reports, and student interviews. By including students from diverse academic backgrounds, the study enhanced its external validity, enabling a broader range of perspectives and insights during the exercise. Furthermore, encouraging students to seek multigenerational perspectives from family and friends added depth to the analysis, enriching the learning experience and broadening the understanding of the cultural and historical context associated with the family photos Highlighting the emotional significance of these family photos and the personal connection students felt with the objects of analysis fosters a deeper connection to the subject matter. Moreover, the emphasis on stimulating critical thinking through the analysis of composition, subject matter, and potential meanings in family photos suggests a targeted approach to developing analytical skills. This improvement focuses specifically on critical thinking and visual analysis, enhancing the overall quality of the exercise. Additionally, the inclusion of a step where students compare different family photos to identify patterns, similarities, and differences further enhances the depth of the analysis. This comparative approach adds a layer of complexity to the exercise, ultimately leading to a more comprehensive understanding of visual elements and themes. The expected results of this study will culminate in a set of practical recommendations for implementing this exercise in academic settings.

Keywords: visual analysis, academic writing, pedagogical exercise, family photos

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Authors: U. Isyaku, C. Upton, J. Dickinson

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Critical institutional approach for understanding pathways to shared prosperity among forest communities enabled questioning the underlying rational choice assumptions that have dominated traditional institutional thinking in natural resources management. Common pool resources framing assumes that communities as social groups share collective interests and values towards achieving greater development. Hence, policies related to natural resources management in the global South prioritise economic prosperity by focusing on how to maximise material benefits and improve the livelihood options of resource dependent communities. Recent trends in commodification and marketization of ecosystem goods and services into tradable natural capital and incentivising conservation are structured in this paradigm. Several researchers however, have problematized this emerging market-based model because it undermines cultural basis for protecting natural ecosystems. By exploring how forest people’s motivations for conservation differ within the context of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) project in Nigeria, we aim to provide an alternative approach to conceptualising prosperity beyond the traditional economic thinking. Through in depth empirical work over seven months with five communities in Nigeria’s Cross River State, Q methodology was used to uncover communities’ perspectives and meanings of forest values that underpin contemporary and historic conservation practices, expected benefits, and willingness to participate in the REDD+ process. Our study finds six discourses about forest and conservation values that transcend wealth creation, poverty reduction and livelihoods. We argue that communities’ decisions about forest conservation consist of a complex mixture of economic, emotional, moral, and ecological justice concerns that constitute new meanings and dimensions of prosperity. Prosperity is thus reconfigured as having socio-cultural and psychological pathways that could be derived through place identity and attachment, connectedness to nature, family ties, and ability to participate in everyday social life. We therefore suggest that natural resources policy making and development interventions should consider institutional arrangements that also include the psycho-cultural dimensions of prosperity among diverse community groups.

Keywords: critical institutionalism, Q methodology, REDD+, shared prosperity

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Authors: Orhun Aydin, Mark V. Janikas, Rodrigo Alves, Renato Assuncao

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In this paper, a tree-based perturbation methodology for regionalization inference is presented. Regionalization is a constrained optimization problem that aims to create groups with similar attributes while satisfying spatial contiguity constraints. Similar to any constrained optimization problem, the spatial constraint may hinder convergence to some global minima, resulting in spatially contiguous members of a group with dissimilar attributes. This paper presents a general methodology for rigorously perturbing spatial constraints through the use of random spanning trees. The general framework presented can be used to quantify the effect of the spatial constraints in the overall regionalization result. We compare several types of stochastic spanning trees used in inference problems such as fuzzy regionalization and determining the number of regions. Performance of stochastic spanning trees is juxtaposed against the traditional permutation-based hypothesis testing frequently used in spatial statistics. Inference results for fuzzy regionalization and determining the number of regions is presented on the Local Area Personal Incomes for Texas Counties provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Keywords: regionalization, constrained clustering, probabilistic inference, fuzzy clustering

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Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

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This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

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Authors: Jeffrey M. Byford

Abstract:

The conceptualized theory of decision making on historical events often does not conform to uniform beliefs among students. When presented the opportunity, many students have differing opinions and rationales associated with historical events and outcomes. The intent of this paper was to provide students with the economic, social and political dilemmas associated with the autonomy of East Berlin. Students ranked seven possible actions from the most to least acceptable. In addition, students were required to provide both positive and negative factors for each decision and relative ranking. Results from this activity suggested that while most students chose a financial action towards West Berlin, some students had trouble justifying their actions.

Keywords: content-centered learning, cold war, Berlin, decision-making

Procedia PDF Downloads 455