Search results for: mixed models

Authors: Dennis Kreutzer, Sarah Müller-Abdelrazeq, Ingrid Isenhardt

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Resource scarcity, energy transition and the planned climate neutrality pose enormous challenges for manufacturing companies. In order to achieve these goals and a holistic sustainable development, the European Union has listed the circular economy as part of the Circular Economy Action Plan. In addition to a reduction in resource consumption, reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and a reduced volume of waste, the principles of the circular economy also offer enormous economic potential for companies, such as the generation of new circular business models. However, many manufacturing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the necessary capacity to plan their transformation. They need support and strategies on the path to circular transformation, because this change affects not only production but also the entire company. Maturity models offer an approach, as they enable companies to determine the current status of their transformation processes. In addition, companies can use the models to identify transformation strategies and thus promote the transformation process. While maturity models are established in other areas, e.g. IT or project management, only a few circular economy maturity models can be found in the scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to analyse the identified maturity models of the circular economy through a systematic literature review (SLR) and, besides other aspects, to check their completeness as well as their quality. Since the terms "maturity model" and "readiness model" are often used to assess the transformation process, this paper considers both types of models to provide a more comprehensive result. For this purpose, circular economy maturity models at the company (micro) level were identified from the literature, compared, and analysed with regard to their theoretical and methodological structure. A specific focus was placed, on the one hand, on the analysis of the business units considered in the respective models and, on the other hand, on the underlying metrics and indicators in order to determine the individual maturity level of the entire company. The results of the literature review show, for instance, a significant difference in the holism of their assessment framework. Only a few models include the entire company with supporting areas outside the value-creating core process, e.g. strategy and vision. Additionally, there are large differences in the number and type of indicators as well as their metrics. For example, most models often use subjective indicators and very few objective indicators in their surveys. It was also found that there are rarely well-founded thresholds between the levels. Based on the generated results, concrete ideas and proposals for a research agenda in the field of circular economy maturity models are made.

Keywords: maturity model, circular economy, transformation, metric, assessment

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

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Authors: Jessica Lopez Espejel, Mahaman Sanoussi Yahaya Alassan, Walid Dahhane, El Hassane Ettifouri

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Pretrained transformer-based models have shown high performance in natural language generation tasks. However, a new wave of interest has surged: automatic programming language code generation. This task consists of translating natural language instructions to a source code. Despite the fact that well-known pre-trained models on language generation have achieved good performance in learning programming languages, effort is still needed in automatic code generation. In this paper, we introduce JaCoText, a model based on Transformer neural network. It aims to generate java source code from natural language text. JaCoText leverages the advantages of both natural language and code generation models. More specifically, we study some findings from state of the art and use them to (1) initialize our model from powerful pre-trained models, (2) explore additional pretraining on our java dataset, (3) lead experiments combining the unimodal and bimodal data in training, and (4) scale the input and output length during the fine-tuning of the model. Conducted experiments on CONCODE dataset show that JaCoText achieves new state-of-the-art results.

Keywords: java code generation, natural language processing, sequence-to-sequence models, transformer neural networks

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Authors: Rami Al Jafar, Paul Elliott, Konstantinos K. Tsilidis, Abbas Dehghan

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Although Ramadan fasting is a ritual that is practiced every year by millions of Muslims, studies on Ramadan fasting are still scarce. To the best of our knowledge, none of the previous studies comprehensively explored the effect on the metabolic profile. In London Ramadan Fasting Study, blood samples were collected from 81 participants before and 10-14 days after Ramadan. Blood samples were analysed using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy which covers 249 metabolites. Mixed-effects models were used to analyse collected data and assess the effect of Ramadan fasting on the metabolic profile. Our observational study involved 85 individuals with a mean age of 45.2 years, and 53.1% of them were males. After Ramadan, forty metabolites were affected significantly by Ramadan fasting. Most of these metabolites were metabolites ratios (24), and the rest were three Glycolysis, three ketone bodies, nine Lipoprotein subclasses and one inflammation marker. This study suggests that Ramadan fasting is significantly associated with changes in the metabolic profile. However, the changes are assumed to be temporary, and the long-term effect of these changes is unknown.

Keywords: metabolic profile, Ramadan fasting, metabolites, intermittent fasting

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Authors: Zachary Huffman, Joana Rocha

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Wall-pressure fluctuations induced by the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) developed over aircraft are a significant source of aircraft cabin noise. Since the power spectral density (PSD) of these pressure fluctuations is directly correlated with the amount of sound radiated into the cabin, the development of accurate empirical models that predict the PSD has been an important ongoing research topic. The sound emitted can be represented from the pressure fluctuations term in the Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Therefore, early TBL empirical models (including those from Lowson, Robertson, Chase, and Howe) were primarily derived by simplifying and solving the RANS for pressure fluctuation and adding appropriate scales. Most subsequent models (including Goody, Efimtsov, Laganelli, Smol’yakov, and Rackl and Weston models) were derived by making modifications to these early models or by physical principles. Overall, these models have had varying levels of accuracy, but, in general, they are most accurate under the specific Reynolds and Mach numbers they were developed for, while being less accurate under other flow conditions. Despite this, recent research into the possibility of using alternative methods for deriving the models has been rather limited. More recent studies have demonstrated that an artificial neural network model was more accurate than traditional models and could be applied more generally, but the accuracy of other machine learning techniques has not been explored. In the current study, an original model is derived using a stepwise regression algorithm in the statistical programming language R, and TBL wall-pressure fluctuations PSD data gathered at the Carleton University wind tunnel. The theoretical advantage of a stepwise regression approach is that it will automatically filter out redundant or uncorrelated input variables (through the process of feature selection), and it is computationally faster than machine learning. The main disadvantage is the potential risk of overfitting. The accuracy of the developed model is assessed by comparing it to independently sourced datasets.

Keywords: aircraft noise, machine learning, power spectral density models, regression models, turbulent boundary layer wall-pressure fluctuations

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Authors: Ramesh Chandra Majhi

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Saturation flow is a very important input variable for the design of signalized intersections. Saturation flow measurement is well established for homogeneous traffic. However, saturation flow measurement and modeling is a challenging task in heterogeneous characterized by multiple vehicle types and non-lane based movement. Present study focuses on proposing a field procedure for Saturation flow measurement and the effect of typical mixed traffic behavior at the signal as far as non-lane based traffic movement is concerned. Data collected during peak and off-peak hour from five intersections with varying approach width is used for validating the saturation flow model. The insights from the study can be used for modeling saturation flow and delay at signalized intersection in heterogeneous traffic conditions.

Keywords: optimization, passenger car unit, saturation flow, signalized intersection

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Authors: Chuang-Chun Chiou

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In this study, a systematic framework of graceful ageing has been used to explore the possible human resource utilization models for graceful ageing purpose. This framework is based on the Chinese culture. We call ‘Nine-old’ target. They are ageing gracefully with feeding, accomplishment, usefulness, learning, entertainment, care, protection, dignity, and termination. This study is focused on two areas: accomplishment and usefulness. We exam the current practices of initiatives and laws of promoting labor participation. That is to focus on how to increase Labor Force Participation Rate of the middle aged as well as the elderly and try to promote the elderly to achieve graceful ageing. Then we present the possible models that support graceful ageing.

Keywords: human resource utilization model, labor participation, graceful ageing, employment

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Authors: Abdulrahman Sumayli, Saad M. AlShahrani

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For the hydrogenation process, knowing the solubility of hydrogen (H2) in hydrocarbons is critical to improve the efficiency of the process. We investigated the H2 solubility computation in four heavy crude oil feedstocks using machine learning techniques. Temperature, pressure, and feedstock type were considered as the inputs to the models, while the hydrogen solubility was the sole response. Specifically, we employed three different models: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and Bayesian ridge regression (BRR). To achieve the best performance, the hyper-parameters of these models are optimized using the whale optimization algorithm (WOA). We evaluated the models using a dataset of solubility measurements in various feedstocks, and we compared their performance based on several metrics. Our results show that the WOA-SVR model tuned with WOA achieves the best performance overall, with an RMSE of 1.38 × 10− 2 and an R-squared of 0.991. These findings suggest that machine learning techniques can provide accurate predictions of hydrogen solubility in different feedstocks, which could be useful in the development of hydrogen-related technologies. Besides, the solubility of hydrogen in the four heavy oil fractions is estimated in different ranges of temperatures and pressures of 150 ◦C–350 ◦C and 1.2 MPa–10.8 MPa, respectively

Keywords: temperature, pressure variations, machine learning, oil treatment

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Authors: L. Grinis

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Turbulent flow in complex geometries receives considerable attention due to its importance in many engineering applications. It has been the subject of interest for many researchers. Some of these interests include the design of storm water channels. The design of these channels requires testing through physical models. The main practical limitation of physical models is the so called “scale effect”, that is, the fact that in many cases only primary physical mechanisms can be correctly represented, while secondary mechanisms are often distorted. These observations form the basis of our study, which centered on problems associated with the design of storm water channels near the Dead Sea, in Israel. To help reach a final design decision we used different physical models. Our research showed good coincidence with the results of laboratory tests and theoretical calculations, and allowed us to study different effects of fluid flow in an open channel. We determined that problems of this nature cannot be solved only by means of theoretical calculation and computer simulation. This study demonstrates the use of physical models to help resolve very complicated problems of fluid flow through baffles and similar structures. The study applies these models and observations to different construction and multiphase water flows, among them, those that include sand and stone particles, a significant attempt to bring to the testing laboratory a closer association with reality.

Keywords: open channel, physical modeling, baffles, turbulent flow

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Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

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There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone, least squares method, regression models

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Authors: Byeongcheol Kang, Junyi Kim, Hyungsik Jung, Hyungjun Yang, Jaewoo An, Jonggeun Choe

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It is important to figure out reservoir properties for better production management. Due to the limited information, there are geological uncertainties on very heterogeneous or channel reservoir. One of the solutions is to generate multiple equi-probable realizations using geostatistical methods. However, some models have wrong properties, which need to be excluded for simulation efficiency and reliability. We propose a novel method of model selection scheme, based on distance-based clustering for reliable application of production optimization algorithm. Distance is defined as a degree of dissimilarity between the data. We calculate Hausdorff distance to classify the models based on their similarity. Hausdorff distance is useful for shape matching of the reservoir models. We use multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) to describe the models on two dimensional space and group them by K-means clustering. Rather than simulating all models, we choose one representative model from each cluster and find out the best model, which has the similar production rates with the true values. From the process, we can select good reservoir models near the best model with high confidence. We make 100 channel reservoir models using single normal equation simulation (SNESIM). Since oil and gas prefer to flow through the sand facies, it is critical to characterize pattern and connectivity of the channels in the reservoir. After calculating Hausdorff distances and projecting the models by MDS, we can see that the models assemble depending on their channel patterns. These channel distributions affect operation controls of each production well so that the model selection scheme improves management optimization process. We use one of useful global search algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), for our production optimization. PSO is good to find global optimum of objective function, but it takes too much time due to its usage of many particles and iterations. In addition, if we use multiple reservoir models, the simulation time for PSO will be soared. By using the proposed method, we can select good and reliable models that already matches production data. Considering geological uncertainty of the reservoir, we can get well-optimized production controls for maximum net present value. The proposed method shows one of novel solutions to select good cases among the various probabilities. The model selection schemes can be applied to not only production optimization but also history matching or other ensemble-based methods for efficient simulations.

Keywords: distance-based clustering, geological uncertainty, particle swarm optimization (PSO), production optimization

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Authors: Bayan Ahmed Alsaffar

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The aim of this study is to assess the sustainability initiatives at Applied Sciences University (ASU) in Bahrain using a mixed-methods approach based on students, staff, and faculty perceptions. The study involves a literature review, interviews with faculty members and students, and a survey of ASU's level of sustainability in education, research, operations, administration, and finance that depended on the Sustainability Tracking, Assessment & Rating System (STARS). STARS is a tool used to evaluate the sustainability performance of higher education institutions. The study concludes that a mixed-methods approach can provide a powerful tool for assessing sustainability initiatives at ASU and ultimately lead to insights that can inform effective strategies for improving sustainability efforts. The current study contributes to the field of sustainability in universities and highlights the importance of user engagement and awareness for achieving sustainability goals.

Keywords: environment, initiatives, society, sustainability, STARS, university

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Authors: Mohamed Ziyaina, Ahlam Rajab, Khadija Alkhweldi, Wafia Algami, Omer Al. Toumi, Barbara Rasco1

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In recent years, there has been a growing interest in monitoring heavy metal contamination in food products. Spices can improve the taste of food and can also be a source of many bioactive compounds but can unfortunately, also be contaminated with dangerous materials, potentially heavy metals. This study was conducted to investigate lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) contamination in selected spices commonly consumed in Libya including Capsicum frutescens (chili pepper) Piper nigrum, (black pepper), Curcuma longa (turmeric), and mixed spices (HRARAT) which consist of a combination of: Alpinia officinarum, Zingiber officinale and Cinnamomum zeylanicum. Spices were analyzed by atomic absorption spectroscopy after digestion with nitric acid/hydrogen peroxide. The highest level of lead (Pb) was found in Curcuma longa and Capsicum frutescens in wholesale markets (1.05 ± 0.01 mg/kg, 0.96 ± 0.06 mg/kg). Cadmium (Cd) levels exceeded FAO/WHO permissible limit. Curcuma longa and Piper nigrum sold in retail markets had a high concentration of Cd (0.36 ± 0.09, 0.35 ± 0.07 mg/kg, respectively) followed by (0.32 ± 0.04 mg/kg) for Capsicum frutescens. Mixed spices purchased from wholesale markets also had high levels of Cd (0.31 ± 0.08 mg/kg). Curcuma longa and Capsicum frutescens may pose a food safety risk due to high levels of lead and cadmium. Cadmium levels exceeded FAO/WHO recommendations (0.2 ppm) for Piper nigrum, Curcuma longa, and mixed spices (HRARAT).

Keywords: heavy metals, lead, cadmium determination, spice

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Gospodinka Prakova, Pavlina Gidikova, Gergana Sandeva, Kamelia Haracherova, Emil Slavov

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Neopterin was demonstrated to be a sensitive marker of cell-mediated immune reactions which plays a key role in the interaction of monocyte / macrophage activation. The purpose of this work was to investigate changes in serum neopterin in workers exposed to different composition of mineral dust. Material and Methods: Serum neopterin was studied in 193 exposed workers, divided into three groups, depending on the mineral dust and content of the quartz in the respirable fraction. The I-st group-coal dust containing less than 2% free crystalline silica (n=44), II-nd group-coal dust containing over 2% free crystalline silica (n=94) and the III-rd group-mixed dust with corundum and carborundum (n=55). The control group was composed of 21 individuals without exposure to dust. Serum neopterin was investigated by Elisa method in ng/ml according to the instructions of the manufacturer. Results and Discussion: It was found significantly higher level of serum neopterin in exposed workers of mineral dust (2,10 ± 0,62 ng / ml), compared with that of the control group (1,10 ± 0,85 ng/ml; p < 0,05). Neopterin levels in workers exposed to coal dust (1,87 ± 0,42 ng / ml-I-st and 3,32 ± 0,77 ng / ml-II-nd group) were significantly higher compared with those exposed to a mixed dust (1,31±0,68 mg / ml-third) and control group (p < 0,05). No significant difference in serum neopterin when exposed to a mixed dust composed of corundum and carborundum (III-rd) and a control group. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate activates a cell-mediated immune response when exposed to a mineral dust. The level of that activation depends mainly on the composition of the dust and is significantly highest in workers exposed to coal dust.

Keywords: mineral dust, neopterin, occupational exposure, respirable crystalline silica

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Abdul Wajid Ali

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Supersonic flight promises speed, but the design of the air inlet faces an obstacle: shock waves. They prevent air flow in the mixed compression ports, which reduces engine performance. Our research investigates this using supersonic wind tunnels and schlieren imaging to reveal the complex dance between shock waves and airflow. The findings show clear patterns of shock wave formation influenced by internal/external pressure surfaces. We looked at the boundary layer, the slow-moving air near the inlet walls, and its interaction with shock waves. In addition, the study emphasizes the dependence of the shock wave behaviour on the Mach number, which highlights the need for adaptive models. This knowledge is key to optimizing the combined compression inputs, paving the way for more powerful and efficient supersonic vehicles. Future engineers can use this knowledge to improve existing designs and explore innovative configurations for next-generation ultrasonic applications.

Keywords: oblique shock formation, boundary layer interaction, schlieren images, double wedge surface

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Authors: Rajneekant Bachan, Dhanush Vijay

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The visualization of operating systems has refined the Turing machine, and current trends suggest that the emulation of 32 bit architectures will soon emerge. After years of technical research into Web services, we demonstrate the synthesis of gigabit switches, which embodies the robust principles of theory. Loam, our new algorithm for forward-error correction, is the solution to all of these challenges.

Keywords: software engineering, architectures, introspective models, operating systems

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Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

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Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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Authors: Jefri Draup, Antoine Ambard, Chi-Toan Nguyen

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Zirconium alloys exhibit solid-state phase transformations under thermal loading. These can lead to a significant evolution of the microstructure and associated mechanical properties of materials used in nuclear fuel cladding structures. Therefore, the ability to capture effects of phase transformation on the material constitutive behavior is of interest during conditions of severe transient thermal loading. Whilst typical Avrami, or Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK), type models for phase transformations have been shown to have a good correlation with the behavior of Zircaloy-4 under constant heating rates, the effects of variable and fast heating rates are not fully explored. The present study utilises the results of in-situ high energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction (SXRD) measurements in order to validate the phase transformation models for Zircaloy-4 under fast variable heating rates. These models are used to assess the performance of fuel cladding structures under loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. The results indicate that simple Avrami type models can provide a reasonable indication of the phase distribution in experimental test specimens under variable fast thermal loading. However, the accuracy of these models deteriorates under the faster heating regimes, i.e., 100Cs⁻¹. The studies highlight areas for improvement of simple Avrami type models, such as the inclusion of temperature rate dependence of the JMAK n-exponent.

Keywords: accident, fuel, modelling, zirconium

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Authors: Yong Bum Shin

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This case focuses on Weighted additive difference, Conjunctive, Disjunctive, and Elimination by aspects methodologies in consumer decision-making models and the Simple additive weighting (SAW) approach in the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) area. Most decision-making models illustrate that the rank reversal phenomenon is unpreventable. This paper presents that rank reversal occurs in popular managerial methods such as Weighted Additive Difference (WAD), Conjunctive Method, Disjunctive Method, Elimination by Aspects (EBA) and MCDM methods as well as such as the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and finally Unified Commensurate Multiple (UCM) models which successfully addresses these rank reversal problems in most popular MCDM methods in decision-making area.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, rank inconsistency, unified commensurate multiple, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

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This study is conducted to examine how opposing viewpoints related to COVID-19 were diffused on Twitter. To accomplish this, six datasets using two epidemiological models, SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics), were analyzed. The six datasets were chosen because they represent opposing viewpoints on the COVID-19 pandemic. Three of the datasets contain anti-subject hashtags, while the other three contain pro-subject hashtags. The time frame for all datasets is three years, starting from January 2020 to December 2022. The findings revealed that while both models were effective in evaluating the propagation trends of these polarizing viewpoints, the SEIZ model was more accurate with a relatively lower error rate (6.7%) compared to the SIR model (17.3%). Additionally, the relative error for both models was lower for anti-subject hashtags compared to pro-subject hashtags. By leveraging epidemiological models, insights into the propagation trends of polarizing viewpoints on Twitter were gained. This study paves the way for the development of methods to prevent the spread of ideas that lack scientific evidence while promoting the dissemination of scientifically backed ideas.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, epidemiological model, seiz model, sir model, covid-19, twitter, social network analysis, social contagion

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Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan, Paul Rouse

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Organizational sustainability is important to both organizations themselves and their stakeholders. Despite its increasing popularity and increasing numbers of organizations reporting sustainability, research on evaluating and comparing the sustainability performance of companies is limited. The aim of this study was to develop models to measure sustainability performance for both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons across companies in the same or different industries. A secondary aim was to see if sustainability reports can be used to evaluate sustainability performance. The study used both a content analysis of Australian sustainability reports in mining and metals and financial services for 2011-2014 and a survey of Australian and New Zealand organizations. Two methods ranging from a composite index using uniform weights to data envelopment analysis (DEA) were employed to analyze the data and develop the models. The results show strong statistically significant relationships between the developed models, which suggests that each model provides a consistent, systematic and reasonably robust analysis. The results of the models show that for both industries, companies that had sustainability scores above or below the industry average stayed almost the same during the study period. These indices and models can be used by companies to evaluate their sustainability performance and compare it with previous years, or with other companies in the same or different industries. These methods can also be used by various stakeholders and sustainability ranking companies such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI).

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, sustainability, sustainability performance measurement system, sustainability performance index, global reporting initiative

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Authors: Y. Baba, A. Archibong-Eso, H. Yeung

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Experimental study of high viscosity oil-gas flows in horizontal pipelines published in literature has indicated that hydrodynamic slug flow is the dominant flow pattern observed. Investigations have shown that hydrodynamic slugging brings about high instabilities in pressure that can damage production facilities thereby making it inherent to study high viscous slug flow regime so as to improve the understanding of its flow dynamics. Most slug flow models used in the petroleum industry for the design of pipelines together with their closure relationships were formulated based on observations of low viscosity liquid-gas flows. New experimental investigations and data are therefore required to validate these models. In cases where these models underperform, improving upon or building new predictive models and correlations will also depend on the new experimental dataset and further understanding of the flow dynamics in high viscous oil-gas flows. In this study conducted at the Flow laboratory, Oil and Gas Engineering Centre of Cranfield University, slug flow variables such as pressure gradient, mean liquid holdup, frequency and slug length for oil viscosity ranging from 1..0 – 5.5 Pa.s are experimentally investigated and analysed. The study was carried out in a 0.076m ID pipe, two fast sampling gamma densitometer and pressure transducers (differential and point) were used to obtain experimental measurements. Comparison of the measured slug flow parameters to the existing slug flow prediction models available in the literature showed disagreement with high viscosity experimental data thus highlighting the importance of building new predictive models and correlations.

Keywords: gamma densitometer, mean liquid holdup, pressure gradient, slug frequency and slug length

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

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Damage due to high wind is not limited to load resistance components such as beam and column. The majority of damage is due to breach in the building envelope such as broken roof, window, and door. In this paper, wind fragility of window glass in residential apartment was determined to compare the difference between two window configuration models. Monte Carlo Simulation method had been used to derive damage data and analytical fragilities were constructed. Fragility of window system showed that window located in leeward wall had higher probability of failure, especially those close to the edge of structure. Between the two window models, Model 2 had higher probability of failure, this was due to the number of panel in this configuration.

Keywords: wind fragility, glass window, high rise building, wind disaster

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Authors: Flora Babongo, Valerie Chavez

Abstract:

Inferring causality from observational data is one of the fundamental subjects, especially in quantitative finance. So far most of the papers analyze additive noise models with either linearity, nonlinearity or Gaussian noise. We fill in the gap by providing a nonlinear and non-gaussian causal multiplicative noise model that aims to distinguish the cause from the effect using a two steps method based on Bayesian additive models for location, scale and shape (BAMLSS) and on causal additive models (CAM). We have tested our method on simulated and real data and we reached an accuracy of 0.86 on average. As real data, we considered the causality between financial indices such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC 40 and Nikkei, and companies' log-returns. Our results can be useful in inferring causality when the data is heteroskedastic or non-injective.

Keywords: causal inference, DAGs, BAMLSS, financial index

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Authors: Jamil Ahmed

Abstract:

Access control models aim to decide whether a user should be denied or granted access to the user‟s requested activity. Various access control models have been established and proposed. The most prominent of these models include role-based, attribute-based, policy based access control models as well as role-centric attribute based access control model. In this paper, a novel access control model is presented called “Role centric Attribute based Policy Driven Access Control (RAPDAC) model”. RAPDAC incorporates the concept of “policy” in the “role centric attribute based access control model”. It leverages the concept of "policy‟ by precisely combining the evaluation of conditions, attributes, permissions and roles in order to allow authorization access. This approach allows capturing the "access control policy‟ of a real time application in a well defined manner. RAPDAC model allows making access decision at much finer granularity as illustrated by the case study of a real time library information system.

Keywords: authorization, access control model, role based access control, attribute based access control

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Authors: Nadarajah I. Ramesh

Abstract:

Much of the research on stochastic point process models for rainfall has focused on Poisson cluster models constructed from either the Neyman-Scott or Bartlett-Lewis processes. The doubly stochastic Poisson process provides a rich class of point process models, especially for fine-scale rainfall modelling. This paper provides an account of recent development on this topic and presents the results based on some of the fine-scale rainfall models constructed from this class of stochastic point processes. Amongst the literature on stochastic models for rainfall, greater emphasis has been placed on modelling rainfall data recorded at hourly or daily aggregation levels. Stochastic models for sub-hourly rainfall are equally important, as there is a need to reproduce rainfall time series at fine temporal resolutions in some hydrological applications. For example, the study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water management initiatives requires the availability of data at fine temporal resolutions. One approach to generating such rainfall data relies on the combination of an hourly stochastic rainfall simulator, together with a disaggregator making use of downscaling techniques. Recent work on this topic adopted a different approach by developing specialist stochastic point process models for fine-scale rainfall aimed at generating synthetic precipitation time series directly from the proposed stochastic model. One strand of this approach focused on developing a class of doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) models for fine-scale rainfall to analyse data collected in the form of rainfall bucket tip time series. In this context, the arrival pattern of rain gauge bucket tip times N(t) is viewed as a DSPP whose rate of occurrence varies according to an unobserved finite state irreducible Markov process X(t). Since the likelihood function of this process can be obtained, by conditioning on the underlying Markov process X(t), the models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods. The proposed models were applied directly to the raw data collected by tipping-bucket rain gauges, thus avoiding the need to convert tip-times to rainfall depths prior to fitting the models. One advantage of this approach was that the use of maximum likelihood methods enables a more straightforward estimation of parameter uncertainty and comparison of sub-models of interest. Another strand of this approach employed the DSPP model for the arrivals of rain cells and attached a pulse or a cluster of pulses to each rain cell. Different mechanisms for the pattern of the pulse process were used to construct variants of this model. We present the results of these models when they were fitted to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall data. The results of our analysis suggest that the proposed class of stochastic models is capable of reproducing the fine-scale structure of the rainfall process, and hence provides a useful tool in hydrological modelling.

Keywords: fine-scale rainfall, maximum likelihood, point process, stochastic model

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Authors: John Oupa Hlatshwayo

Abstract:

Background: There seem to be preferred digital business models with varying impacts within hospitality, tourism and catering sub-sectors explored through online commerce, as all are ingrained in the business economics domain. Aim: A study aims to establish if such phenomena (Digital Business Models) exist and to what extent if any, within the hospitality, tourism and catering industries, respectively. Setting: This is a qualitative study conducted by exploring several (Four) institutions globally through Case Studies. Method: This research explored explanatory case studies to answer questions about ‘how’ or ’why’ with little control by a researcher over the occurrence of events. It is qualitative research, deductive, and inductive methods. Hence, a comprehensive approach to analyzing qualitative data was attainable through immersion by reading to understand the information. Findings: The results corroborated the notion that digital business models are applicable, by and large, in business economics. Thus, three sectors wherein enterprises operate in the business economics sphere have been narrowed down i.e. hospitality, tourism and catering, are also referred to as triangular polygons due to the atypical nature of being ‘stand-alone’, yet ‘sub-sectors’, but there are confounding factors to consider. Conclusion: The significance of digital business models and digital transformation shows an inevitable merger between business and technology within Hospitality, Tourism, and Catering. Contribution: Such symbiotic relationship of business and technology, persistent evolution of clients’ interface with end-products, forever changing market, current adaptation as well as adjustment to ‘new world order’ by enterprises must be embraced constantly without fail by Business Practitioners, Academics, Business Students, Organizations and Governments.

Keywords: digital business models, hospitality, tourism, catering, business economics

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