Search results for: future needs

Authors: B. Casper

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The energy transition towards renewable energies and drastically reduced carbon dioxide emissions in Germany drives multiple sectors into a transformation process. Photovoltaic and on-shore wind power are predominantly feeding in the low and medium-voltage grids. The electricity grid is not laid out to allow an increasing feed-in of power in low and medium voltage grids. Electric mobility is currently in the run-up phase in Germany and still lacks a significant amount of charging stations. The additional power demand by e-mobility cannot be supplied by the existing electric grids in most cases. The future demands in heating and cooling of commercial and residential buildings are increasingly generated by heat-pumps. Yet the most important part in the energy transition is the storage of surplus energy generated by photovoltaic and wind power sources. Water electrolysis is one way to store surplus energy known as power-to-gas. With the vehicle-to-grid technology, the upcoming fleet of electric cars could be used as energy storage to stabilize the grid. All these processes use direct current (DC). The demand of bi-directional flow and higher efficiency in the future grids can be met by using DC. The Flexible Electrical Networks (FEN) research campus at RWTH Aachen investigates interdisciplinary about the advantages, opportunities, and limitations of DC grids. This paper investigates the impact of DC grids as a technological innovation on the urban form and urban life. Applying explorative scenario development, analyzation of mapped open data sources on grid networks and research-by-design as a conceptual design method, possible starting points for a transformation to DC medium voltage grids could be found. Several fields of action have emerged in which DC technology could become a catalyst for future urban development: energy transition in urban areas, e-mobility, and transformation of the network infrastructure. The investigation shows a significant potential to increase renewable energy production within cities with DC grids. The charging infrastructure for electric vehicles will predominantly be using DC in the future because fast and ultra fast charging can only be achieved with DC. Our research shows that e-mobility, combined with autonomous driving has the potential to change the urban space and urban logistics fundamentally. Furthermore, there are possible win-win-win solutions for the municipality, the grid operator and the inhabitants: replacing overhead transmission lines by underground DC cables to open up spaces in contested urban areas can lead to a positive example of how the energy transition can contribute to a more sustainable urban structure. The outlook makes clear that target grid planning and urban planning will increasingly need to be synchronized.

Keywords: direct current, e-mobility, energy transition, grid planning, renewable energy, urban planning

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Authors: Pataramon Satalak, Sakrit Isariyanon, Teerapong Puripanik

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This article uses the recent events in Thailand as a case study for examining why democratic transition is necessary during political upheaval to ensure that the people’s power remains unaffected. After seizing power in May 2014, the military, backed by anti-government protestors, selected and established their own system to govern the country. They set up the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) which established a People’s Assembly, aiming to reach a compromise between the conflicting opinions of former, pro-government and anti-government protesters. It plans to achieve this through political reform before returning sovereign power to the people via an election in 2018. If a governmental authority is not representative of the people (e.g. a military government) it does not count as a legitimate government. During the last four years of military government, from May 2014 to January 2018, their rule of Thailand has been widely controversial, specifically regarding their commitment to democracy, human rights violations and their manipulation of the rule of law. Democratic legitimacy relies not only on established mechanisms for public participation (like referendums or elections) but also public participation based on accessible and educational reform (often via NGOs) to ensure that the free and fair will of the people can be expressed. Through their actions over the last three years, the Thai military government has damaged both of these components, impacting future public participation in politics. The authors make some observations about the specific actions the military government has taken to erode the democratic legitimacy of future public participation: the increasing dominance of military courts over civil courts; civil society’s limited involvement in political activities; the drafting of a new constitution and their attempt to master support through referenda and its consequence for delaying organic law-making process; the structure of the legislative powers (Senate and the members of parliament); and the control of people’s basic freedoms of expression, movement and assembly in political activities. One clear consequence of the military government’s specific actions over the last three years is the increased uncertainty amongst Thai people that their fundamental freedoms and political rights will be respected in the future. This will directly affect their participation in future democratic processes. The military government’s actions (e.g. their response to the UN representatives) will also have influenced potential international engagement in Thai civil society to help educate disadvantaged people about their rights, and their participation in the political arena. These actions challenge the democratic idea that there should be a checking and balancing of power between people and government. These examples provide evidence that a democratic transition is crucial during any process of political transformation.

Keywords: political tranformation, public participation, Thailand coup d'etat 2014, election 2018

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Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

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Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

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Authors: Sérgio J. Teixeira, João J. Ferreira

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Tourism frequently gets identified as one of the sectors with the greatest potential for expansion on a global scale and hence conveying the importance of attempting to better understand the regional factors of competitiveness prevailing in this sector. This study’s objective essentially strives to provide a mapping of the scientific publications and the intellectual knowledge therein contained while conveying past research trends and identifying potential future lines of research in the fields of regional competitiveness and tourism innovation. This correspondingly deploys a systematic review of the literature in keeping with the bibliometric approach based upon VOSviewer software, with a particular focus on drafting maps for visualising the underlying intellectual structure. This type of analysis encapsulates the number of articles published and their annual number of citations for the period between 1900 and 2016 as registered by the Web of Science database. The results demonstrate how the intellectual structure on regional competitiveness divides essentially into three major categories: regional competitiveness, tourism innovation, and tourism clusters. Thus, the main contribution of this study arises out of identifying the main research trends in this field and the respective shortcomings and specific needs for future scientific research in the field of regional competitiveness and innovation in tourism.

Keywords: regional competitiveness, tourism cluster, bibliometric studies, tourism innovation, systematic review

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Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

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Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

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Authors: N. M. Tawil, A. R. Musa, A. I Che-Ani, H. Basri

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It is known that rising of house prices recently has affected the home ownership, especially for the future. Hence to overcome the rose of housing prices, the self-build home or DIY concept is perceived as one of the solution. This concept is proposed to be implemented for the future housing design as a strategy in helping the government to provide affordable housing, especially for middle income group to own a landed housing property. This concept is expected to offer a lower housing price for middle-income buyers and provide an opportunity for buyers to design their dream’s home with the self-build home or 'Do It Yourself' (DIY) concept. In order to implement this concept as affordable housing for MIG, the public perceptions and acceptances on the self-build home/ DIY concept itself should be identified. To achieve this aim this study was conducted by using 2 method namely literature review and questionnaire survey. The questionnaire survey was distributed to 200 respondents randomly in Lembah Klang and were analysed through the SPSS program. The results show that respondents are very interested in buying a home that they can have with the appropriate size of the home. Average of them known about Do It Yourself (DIY) concept but none of respondent have implement this concept. Most of respondents were agreed that this DIY method suitable to be implemented in the housing industry in Malaysia and they were agreed that this concept can offer a cheaper housing price because the construction costs were reduced. Moreover by providing a basic home the owner can renovate their home according to their need and financial capability.

Keywords: affordable housing, Do It Yourself, self-Built home, perception, middle income group

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Authors: Muhammad Tanveer Altaf, Mehmet Bedir, Waqas Liaqat, Gönül Cömertpay, Volkan Çatalkaya, Celaluddin Barutçular, Nergiz Çoban, Ibrahim Cerit, Muhammad Azhar Nadeem, Tolga Karaköy, Faheem Shehzad Baloch

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Food production needs to be almost double by 2050 in order to feed around 9 billion people around the Globe. Plant production mostly relies on fertilizers, which also have one of the main roles in environmental pollution. In addition to this, climatic conditions are unpredictable, and the earth is expected to face severe drought conditions in the future. Therefore, water and fertilizers, especially nitrogen are considered as main constraints for future food security. To face these challenges, developing integrative approaches for germplasm characterization and selecting the resilient genotypes performing under limiting conditions is very crucial for effective breeding to meet the food requirement under climatic change scenarios. This study is part of the European Research Area Network (ERANET) project for the characterization of the diversity panel of 172 sorghum accessions and six hybrids as control cultivars under limiting (+N/-H2O, -N/+H2O) and non-limiting conditions (+N+H2O). This study was planned to characterize the sorghum diversity in relation to resource Use Efficiency (RUE), with special attention on harnessing the interaction between genotype and environment (GxE) from a physiological and agronomic perspective. Experiments were conducted at Adana, a Mediterranean climate, with augmented design, and data on various agronomic and physiological parameters were recorded. Plentiful diversity was observed in the sorghum diversity panel and significant variations were seen among the limiting water and nitrogen conditions in comparison with the control experiment. Potential genotypes with the best performance are identified under limiting conditions. Whole genome resequencing was performed for whole germplasm under investigation for diversity analysis. GWAS analysis will be performed using genotypic and phenotypic data and linked markers will be identified. The results of this study will show the adaptation and improvement of sorghum under climate change conditions for future food security.

Keywords: germplasm, sorghum, drought, nitrogen, resources use efficiency, sequencing

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Authors: Martin Doran, Roy Sterritt, George Wilkie

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NASA, ESA, and NSSC space agencies have plans to put planetary rovers on Mars in 2020. For these future planetary rovers to succeed, they will heavily depend on sensors to detect obstacles. This will also become of vital importance in the future, if rovers become less dependent on commands received from earth-based control and more dependent on self-configuration and self-decision making. These planetary rovers will face harsh environments and the possibility of hardware failure is high, as seen in missions from the past. In this paper, we focus on using Autonomic principles where self-healing, self-optimization, and self-adaption are explored using the MAPE-K model and expanding this model to encapsulate the attributes such as Awareness, Analysis, and Adjustment (AAA-3). In the experimentation, a Pioneer P3-DX research robot is used to simulate a planetary rover. The sonar sensors on the P3-DX robot are used to simulate the sensors on a planetary rover (even though in reality, sonar sensors cannot operate in a vacuum). Experiments using the P3-DX robot focus on how our software system can be adapted with the loss of sonar sensor functionality. The autonomic manager system is responsible for the decision making on how to make use of remaining ‘enabled’ sonars sensors to compensate for those sonar sensors that are ‘disabled’. The key to this research is that the robot can still detect objects even with reduced sonar sensor capability.

Keywords: autonomic, self-adaption, self-healing, self-optimization

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Authors: Amr Ali Bayoumi, Ola Ali Bayoumi

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The aim of this research is enhancing one of the main aspects (Social Aspect) for developing an eco-lodge in Siwa oasis in Egyptian Western Desert. According to credible weightings built in this research through formal and informal questionnaires, the researcher detected one of the highest credible aspects, 'Social Aspect': through which it carries the maximum priorities among the total environmental and economic categories. From here, the researcher suggested the usage of ethnographic design approach and Space Syntax as observational and computational methods for developing future Eco-lodge in Siwa Oasis. These methods are used to study social spaces of Babenshal eco-lodge as a case study. This hybrid method is considered as a beginning of building Social Assessment Tool (SAT) for ecological tourism buildings located in Siwa as a case of Egyptian Western desert community. Towards livable social spaces, the proposed SAT was planned to be the optimum measurable weightings for social aspect's priorities of future Siwan eco-lodge(s). Finally, recommendations are proposed for enhancing SAT to be more correlated with sensitive desert biome (Siwa Oasis) to be adapted with the continuous social and environmental changes of the oasis.

Keywords: ecolodge, social aspect, space syntax, Siwa Oasis

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: Sacha Joseph-Mathews, Leili Javadpour

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In the tourism industry, hoteliers spend millions annually on marketing and positioning efforts for their respective hotels, all in an effort to create a specific image in the minds of the consumer. Yet despite extensive efforts to seduce potential hotel guests with sophisticated advertising messages generated by hotel entities, consumers continue to mistrust corporate branding, preferring instead to place their trust in the reviews of their consumer peers. In today’s complex and cluttered marketplace, online reviews can serve as a mediator for consumers who do not have actual knowledge and experiences with the brand, but are in the process of deciding whether or not to engage in a consumption exercise. Traditionally, consumers have used online reviews as a source of comfort and confirmation of a product/service’s positioning. But today, very few customers make any purchase decisions without first researching existing user reviews, making reviews more of a necessity, rather than a luxury in the purchase decision process. The influence of user generated content (UGC) is amplified in the tourism industry; as more than a third of potential hotel guests will not book a room without first reading a review. As corporate branding becomes less relevant and online reviews become more important, how much of the consumer’s stay expectations are being dictated by existing UGC? Moreover, as hotel guest experience a hotel through the lens of an existing review, how much of their stay and in turn their review, would have been influenced by those reviews that they read? Ultimately, there is the potential for UGC to dictate what potential guests will be most critical about, and or most focused on during their stay. If UGC is a stronger influencer in the purchase decision process than corporate branding, doesn’t it have the potential to dictate, the entire stay experience by influencing the expectations of the guest prior to them arriving on the property? For example, if a hotel is an eco-destination and they focus their branding on their website around sustainability and the retreat nature of the hotel. Yet, guest reviews constantly discuss how dissatisfactory the service and food was with no mention of nature or sustainability, will future reviews then focus primarily on the food? Using text analysis software to examine over 25,000 online reviews, we explore the extent to which new reviews are influenced by wording used in previous reviews for a hotel property, versus content generated by corporate positioning. Additionally, we investigate how distinct hotel related UGC is across different types of tourism destinations. Our findings suggest that UGC can have a greater impact on future reviews, than corporate branding and there is more cohesiveness across UGC of different types of hotel properties than anticipated. A model of User Generated Content Influence is presented and the managerial impact of the power of online reviews to trump corporate branding and shape future user experiences is discussed.

Keywords: user generated content, UGC, corporate branding, online reviews, hotels and tourism

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Authors: Lichung Jen, Yi Chun Liu, Kuan-Wei Lee

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Fruitful data has been accumulated in database nowadays and is commonly used as support for decision-making. In the healthcare industry, hospital, for instance, ordering pharmacy inventory is one of the key decision. With large drug inventory, the current cost increases and its expiration dates might lead to future issue, such as drug disposal and recycle. In contrast, underestimating demand of the pharmacy inventory, particularly standing drugs, affects the medical treatment and possibly hospital reputation. Prescription behaviour of hospital physicians is one of the critical factor influencing this decision, particularly irregular prescription behaviour. If a drug’s usage amount in the month is irregular and less than the regular usage, it may cause the trend of subsequent stockpiling. On the contrary, if a drug has been prescribed often than expected, it may result in insufficient inventory. We proposed a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model with two components to identify physicians’ regular/irregular prescription patterns with probabilities. Heterogeneity of hospital is considered in our proposed hierarchical Bayes model. The result suggested that modeling the prescription patterns of physician is beneficial for estimating the order quantity of medication and pharmacy inventory management of the hospital. Managerial implication and future research are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical Bayesian model, poission mixture model, medicines prescription behavior, irregular behavior

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Authors: Efrizal, Ferdiansyah, Noorlailie Soewarno, Bambang Tjahjadi

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Tax revenue plays an important role in the State Budget of the Government of Indonesia (GOI). The GOI keeps raising tax revenue portion of the Budget from year to year. The low tax ratio of 11 percent in Indonesia shows a big opportunity to collect taxes in the future. The Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) is the institution mandated by the Law to collect tax revenue. This is a case study using quantitative and qualitative approaches. This study introduces contingent factors of taxpayers’ compliance as the mediating variable and internal business process as the independent variable. This study aims to empirically test the contingency theory, especially the mediating effect of taxpayers’ compliance on internal business process-tax revenue relationship. Internal business processes of the DGT include servicing, counseling, expanding, supervising, inspecting, and enforcing. The secondary data of 31 regional offices representing 293 tax offices in Indonesia was collected and analyzed using Partial Least Square. The result showed the following: (1) internal business process affected tax revenue; (2) taxpayers’ compliance did not mediate internal business processes - tax revenue relationship, and (3) taxpayers’ compliance affected tax revenue. In-depth interviews revealed that the DGT needs to make more innovations in business processes in the future.

Keywords: innovations, internal business process, taxpayers’ compliance, tax revenue

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Authors: Klára Gajdošíková

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The aim of this study was to examine the quiet eye method and its components using the mobile eye tracking device. Quiet eye training was proven to be beneficial for different sports, including golf. The main idea of this method is to prolong your fixations on a specific place in order to improve your performance. The shot examined in this study is called putt. Its importance is based on its role on a golf course because, many times, it is the last putt that decides whether you win or lose. Quiet eye training helps players be more focused under pressure, control their attention and overall improve their putting success. Six highly skilled golfers with a handicap ranging from - 4 to + 4, aged 23 to 26, participated in a pilot study with the usage of an eye-tracking device. The study took place in an indoor training area at the golf club Hostivař. Crosstabs showed significant differences between individuals' laterality and their gaze into AOI - areas of interest (middle part of the ball, top of the ball, bottom of the ball, back side of the ball). Statistically significant differences were also discovered between the mean fixation duration of participants with AOI on the middle part of the ball and all other AOIs. The results of this study helped us understand the examined phenomena and showed us the next aim in future quiet eye research. Future research should focus on examining a quiet eye on the golf course. Applying a quiet eye and therefore changing the way we concentrate might be beneficial for coaches and players themselves.

Keywords: eye tracking, golf, laterality, quiet eye

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Authors: Rachel Byrne

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Background: Due to patient and student safety concerns, combined with clinical teachers being redeployed to clinical practice, COVID-19 has resulted in a reduction in face-to-face teaching sessions for medical students. Traditionally such sessions are particularly important for final year medical students, especially in preparing for their final practical exams. A reduced student presence on the wards has also resulted in fewer opportunities for junior doctors to provide teaching sessions. This has implications for junior doctors achieving their own curriculum outcomes for teaching, as well as potentially hindering the development of a future interest in medical education. Aims: The aims of the study are 1) To create a safe face-to-face teaching environment during COVID-19 which focussed on exam preparation for final year medical students, 2) To provide a platform for doctors to gain teaching experience, 3 ) to enable doctors to gain feedback or assessments on their teaching, 4) To create beginners guide to designing a new teaching program for future junior doctors. Methods: We created a program of timed clinical stations consisting of four sessions every five weeks during the student’s medicine attachment. Each session could be attended by 6 students and consisted of 6 stations ran by junior doctors, with each station following social distancing and personal protective equipment requirements. Junior doctors were asked to design their own stations. The sessions ran out-of-hours on weekday evenings and were optional for the students. Results: 95/95 students and 20/40 doctors involved in the programme completed feedback. 100% (n=95) of students strongly agreed/agreed that sessions were aimed at an appropriate level and provided constructive feedback. 100% (n=95) of students stated they felt more confident in their abilities and would recommend the session to peers. 90% (n=18) of the teachers strongly agreed/agreed that they felt more confident in their teaching abilities and that the sessions had improved their own medical knowledge. 85% (n=17) of doctors had a teaching assessment completed, and 83% (n=16) said the program had made them consider a career in medical education. The difficulties of creating such a program were highlighted throughout, and a beginner’s guide was created with the hopes of helping future doctors who are interested in teaching address the common obstacles.

Keywords: COVID-19, education, safety, medical

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Authors: Donald Wright

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The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.

Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development

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Authors: K. W. A. M. Kokila, Matsui Kenichi

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Sri Lanka’s disaster management policy aims to protect lives and developments in disaster affected areas by effectively using resources for disaster risk reduction, emergency management, and community awareness. However, funding for these action programs has posed a serious challenge to the country’s economy. This paper examines the extent to which private-public partnerships (PPPs) can facilitate and expedite disaster management works. In particular, it discusses the results of the questionnaire survey among policymakers, government administrators, NGOs, and private businesses. This questionnaire was conducted in 2017. All respondents were selected based on their experience in PPP projects in the past. The survey focused on clarifying the effectiveness of past PPP projects as well as their efficiency and transparency. The respondents also provided their own opinions and suggestions to improve the future PPP projects in Sri Lanka. The questionnaire was distributed to fifteen persons. The results show that almost all respondents think that PPP projects are beneficial and important for future disaster risk management in Sri Lanka. The respondents, however, showed some reservation about effectiveness and transparency of the PPP process. This paper also discusses the results on the respondents’ perceptions about their capacity regarding human resources and management. This paper, overall, sheds light on technological, financial and human resource management practices in developed countries as well as policy and legislation provisions regarding PPP projects.

Keywords: disaster management, policy, private public partnership, projects

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Authors: Hyunsik Park

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Objective: To provide information of charged nursing care facility for helping to establish geriatric health care policy, and to figure out which factors would be the main determinants for the choice of it. Method: 46 males and 53 females, and the same number of their caregivers admitted into the charged nursing care facility were recruited for intensive interview including personal information, disease information, and economic, familial, marital and emotional statuses. This is a cross-sectional study and we analyzed the data qualitatively. Results: Patients had 3.2 diseases and a hospitalization for 2.3 years on average. They were consists of 46 singles (46.9%), 8 unmarried (8.2%), 5 divorced (5.1%) and 32 married (32.7%). More than two third (70.1%) were supported by their eldest son or daughter. Mostly, the family caregivers decided to admit into the facilities by the doctor’s recommendation (68.4%). When they made a choice for a facility, most of them (42.9%) considered environmental and sanitary conditions. According to their expectation for management in nursing care facility, most caregivers (59.2%) wanted simple-staying for the duration, but most patients (61.3%) expected to be home after taking comprehensive rehabilitation. Three-quarter of the caregivers would agree to use nursing care facilities in the future, if they would be the same situation. Conclusion: Life style and environment are rapidly changing. In the near future, we need lots of the charged nursing care facilities for the old, thus this study can be the good reference for the preparing upcoming aged and super-aged society.

Keywords: nursing care facility, aged society, qualitative analysis, health

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Authors: Vishnu Satya

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Rural communities form the backbone of our society. These communities are self-contained, for the most part, in how they can sustain themselves. Except for the essentials, they are primarily dependent on the state for their development and prosperity. The state claims to provide these through policies and agencies which are designed to guide their livelihood and future. It is assumed that the state-run policies are effective and are reaching the intended audience. Though in reality, there is an ever-widening gap between the two. The interviews conducted with farmers suggests that the support provided by the state to this marginalized community falls far short of their expectations, leaving them helpless. This paper discusses the methods used in bringing the status quo of the marginalized farmers to the forefront by comparing-and-contrasting the existing rhetoric and reality of the rural diaspora. It is seen from the hands-on oral accounts of farmers that they are left hanging between the state and their farms. Unrepresented, this community's progress and future stand severely affected. The paper presents how the visual medium acts as a catalyst for social advocacy by bridging the gap between administrative services and the marginalized rural communities. The finding was that there exists a disconnect between policymakers and the farming community, which has hindered the progress of the farmers. These two communities live exclusively from each other. In conclusion, it is seen that when the gaps between administrators and farmers are plugged through grass-root efforts utilizing visual medium, the farmer's economic situation got better, and the community prospered.

Keywords: farmers, social advocacy, marginalized, story telling

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, Nile delta, modeling

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Authors: Alexander Rych

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Piql Preservation Services (“Piql”) is a turnkey solution designed for secure, migration-free long- term preservation of digital data. Piql sets an open standard for long- term preservation for the future. It consists of equipment and processes needed for writing and retrieving digital data. Exponentially growing amounts of data demand for logistically effective and cost effective processes. Digital storage media (hard disks, magnetic tape) exhibit limited lifetime. Repetitive data migration to overcome rapid obsolescence of hardware and software bears accelerated risk of data loss, data corruption or even manipulation and adds significant repetitive costs for hardware and software investments. Piql stores any kind of data in its digital as well as analog form securely for 500 years. The medium that provides this is a film reel. Using photosensitive film polyester base, a very stable material that is known for its immutability over hundreds of years, secure and cost-effective long- term preservation can be provided. The film reel itself is stored in a packaging capable of protecting the optical storage medium. These components have undergone extensive testing to ensure longevity of up to 500 years. In addition to its durability, film is a true WORM (write once- read many) medium. It therefore is resistant to editing or manipulation. Being able to store any form of data onto the film makes Piql a superior solution for long-term preservation. Paper documents, images, video or audio sequences – all of those file formats and documents can be preserved in its native file structure. In order to restore the encoded digital data, only a film scanner, a digital camera or any appropriate optical reading device will be needed in the future. Every film reel includes an index section describing the data saved on the film. It also contains a content section carrying meta-data, enabling users in the future to rebuild software in order to read and decode the digital information.

Keywords: digital data, long-term preservation, migration-free, photosensitive film

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Authors: Juniarti, Agus Arianto Toly

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This study aims to examine the effect of capital expenditure on the investors’ responses. The respondents were companies with the best stock performance in each sector in 2017. The observation period is 2017 to 2019. Top 10 companies in each sector with the best stock performance in companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange were selected. The main variables are a growth signal which is proxied by growth in capital spending and capital expenditure, and risk and investor response, which is proxied by CAR. Financial performance as measured by ROA is a control variable in this study. The results showed that the signal of growth as measured by capital expenditures responded positively by the market, the risk moderates this influence, companies with high risk will be responded negatively by investors and vice versa. This finding corrects previous findings that only looked at the signal aspect of growth, without linking it to risk. In addition, these findings reinforce the argument that investors buy the future of the company, not a momentary financial performance. This can be seen from the absence of ROA influence on investor response. This study found that companies need to manage risk appropriately, because the risk aspect of the company is a crucial factor for investors. High risks will eliminate the benefits of strategic decisions in this case in the form of capital expenditures.

Keywords: capital expenditure, growth signals, investor response, risk

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Authors: Sarah Pfoser, Lisa-Maria Putz, Thomas Berger

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In the EU, the transport sector accounts for roughly one fourth of the total greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the transport sector is one of the main contributors of greenhouse gas emissions. Climate protection targets aim to reduce the negative effects of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. climate change, global warming) worldwide. Achieving a modal shift to foster environmentally friendly modes of transport such as rail and inland waterways is an important strategy to fulfill the climate protection targets. The present paper goes beyond these conventional transport modes and reflects upon currently emerging high-performance transport modes that yield the potential of complementing future transport systems in an efficient way. It will be defined which properties describe high-performance transport modes, which types of technology are included and what is their potential to contribute to a sustainable future transport network. The first step of this paper is to compile state-of-the-art information about high-performance transport modes to find out which technologies are currently emerging. A multidimensional impact analysis will be conducted afterwards to evaluate which of the technologies is most promising. This analysis will be performed from a spatial, social, economic and environmental perspective. Frequently used instruments such as cost-benefit analysis and SWOT analysis will be applied for the multidimensional assessment. The estimations for the analysis will be derived based on desktop research and discussions in an interdisciplinary team of researchers. For the purpose of this work, high-performance transport modes are characterized as transport modes with very fast and very high throughput connections that could act as efficient extension to the existing transport network. The recently proposed hyperloop system represents a potential high-performance transport mode which might be an innovative supplement for the current transport networks. The idea of hyperloops is that persons and freight are shipped in a tube at more than airline speed. Another innovative technology consists in drones for freight transport. Amazon already tests drones for their parcel shipments, they aim for delivery times of 30 minutes. Drones can, therefore, be considered as high-performance transport modes as well. The Trans-European Transport Networks program (TEN-T) addresses the expansion of transport grids in Europe and also includes high speed rail connections to better connect important European cities. These services should increase competitiveness of rail and are intended to replace aviation, which is known to be a polluting transport mode. In this sense, the integration of high-performance transport modes as described above facilitates the objectives of the TEN-T program. The results of the multidimensional impact analysis will reveal potential future effects of the integration of high-performance modes into transport networks. Building on that, a recommendation on the following (research) steps can be given which are necessary to ensure the most efficient implementation and integration processes.

Keywords: drones, future transport networks, high performance transport modes, hyperloops, impact analysis

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Authors: Zheng Lulin, Xiong Guoping

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In recent years, agriculture, rural development, and peasants are among the top concerns and priorities of the Chinese Government. Several related issues have been paid many attentions by academic communities, including the impacts of corresponding policies on the rural villages, the mechanisms of these impacts, and the future development of rural society. However, most of the researchers focus on single rural policy instead of integral rural policy system. Hence, this dissertation focused on the mechanisms of policies’ influence on rural changes through a case study from Changfu Village in central Guangxi Province, China, to propose the optimized suggestions for rural development. Forty-three relevant pivotal policies of significant influence on rural development are summarized from literature and documents, covering five aspects of agricultural production, rural living security, open rural markets, rural household registration systems, and farmland transferring. Besides, having been live in this area for more than 20 years, researchers obtain the basic information about changing the social connection between citizens and villagers, the habitat of villagers by years of informal interviews. Furthermore, more than 200 questionnaires are given to villagers to analyze the changing of their personal and family information. The summary of rural policies revealed that the development trend of public rural policies followed the U-shape curve and these policies are characterized by economic intentions and operative economy. Report of questionnaires and interviews show that the development of rural economy was promoted greatly by public policies. Firstly, Social communication and rural culture were affected to a certain extent. Secondly, the educational level of rural individuals was significantly enhanced, whereas the quality of population had limited progress. Finally, the freedom of occupational choice for rural individuals into cities was greater than before, but still restricted by the class solidification of social background, resulting in more obstacles for rural individuals to settle down in cities. From what we discuss about, we may reach the conclusion on several perspectives: Firstly, the impact of the rural policies has a significant role in promoting the economy development of the rural area. However, separations between rural and urban area are still a major problem since rural policy contributed little to improve the rural population quality. Therefore, in the future, providing high quality educational facilities including teachers, libraries, and opportunities of broadening their knowledge base are key issues of future rural policy. Secondly, the development of rural economy would be a lack of driving force for further improvement owning to the fact that working hard couldn’t get more improvement. In the future, public policies should support the rural development of culture, technology, and personal qualities to create favorable social environment for the free increase of rural population.

Keywords: changing of rural area, rural development of China, rural policy, social environment

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Authors: Vittorio Linfante

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Utopìa is a term that, since its first appearance in 1516, in Tommaso Moro’s work, has taken on different meanings and forms in various fields: social studies, politics, art, creativity, and design. The utopias, although of short duration and in their apparent impossibility, have been able to give a shape to the future, laying the foundations for our present and the future of the next generations. The Twentieth century was the historical period crossed by many changes, and it saw the most significant number of utopias not only social, political, and scientific but also artistic, architectural, in design, communication, and, last but not least, in fashion. Over the years, fashion has been able to interpret various utopistic impulses giving form to the most futuristic visions. From the Manifesto del Vestito by Giacomo Balla, through the functional experiments that led to the Tuta by Thayath and the Varst by Aleksandr Rodčenko and Varvara Stepanova, through the Space Age visions of Rudi Gernreich, Paco Rabanne and Pierre Cardin, and the Archizoom’s political actions and their fashion project Vestirsi è facile. Experiments that have continued to the present days through the (sometimes) excessive visions of Hussein Chalayan, Alexander McQueen, and Gareth Pugh or those that are more anchored to the market (but no fewer innovative and visionaries) by Prada, Chanel, and Raf Simmons. If, as Bauman states, it is true that we have entered in a phase of Retrotopia characterized by the inability to think about new forms of the future; it is necessary, more than ever, to redefine the role of history, of its narration and its mise en scène, within the contemporary creative process. A process that increasingly requires an in-depth knowledge of the past for the definition of a renewed discourse about design processes. A discourse in which words like archive, exhibition, curating, revival, vintage, and costume take on new meanings. The paper aims to investigate–through case studies, research, and professional projects–the renewed role of curating and preserving fashion artefacts. A renewed role that–in an era of Retrotopia–museums, exhibitions, and archives can (and must) assume, to contribute to the definition of new design paradigms, capable of overcoming the traditional categories of revival or costume in favour of a more contemporary “mash-up” approach. Mash-up in which past and present, craftsmanship and new technologies, revival and experimentation merge seamlessly. In this perspective, dresses (as well as fashion accessories) should be considered not only as finished products but as artefacts capable of talking about the past and of producing unpublished new stories at the same time. Archives, exhibitions (academic and not), and museums thus become powerful sources of inspiration for fashion: places and projects capable of generating innovation, becoming active protagonists of the contemporary fashion design processes.

Keywords: heritage, history, costume and fashion interface, performance, language, design research

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Authors: Y. A. Kumar

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Environmental awareness issues in Kazakhstan are one of the most undermined topics both among the public community and in terms of state rhetoric. In the context of official state documents, so far only two official environmental codes and national programs called Zhasyl Kazakhstan were introduced in the country in 2021. While on the one hand the Environmental Code was introduced with the purpose to modernize, frame and enlist main legislative aspects on various sectors of environmental law in Kazakhstan, on the other hand, the Zhasyl Kazakhstan Program has been implemented as a state program to address with numerous environmental projects various environmental issues ranging from air pollution to waste management as well as aspects related to ecological education and low environmental awareness matters. In this regard, the main goal of this paper is to analyze critically the main content of both of these documents with a particular focus on sections related to environmental awareness-raising aspects. For that, this paper applied a subjective-based content analysis in order to identify interesting insights on regulatory legal aspects, future research streams, and uncovering of improved legislative frameworks in the context of an environmental awareness issue. Apart from that, five open-ended questions were sent out to the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources to obtain primary data on the state’s view in regards to current previous, recent and future aspects of environmental awareness issues in the country.

Keywords: Kazakhstan, environmental awareness, environmental code, Zhasyl Kazakhstan, content analysis

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Authors: Tero Huhtala, Minna Pikkarainen, Saila Saraniemi

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Information technology has long been used as an enabler of exchange for goods and services. Services are evolving from generic to personalized, and the reverse use of customer data has been discussed in both academia and industry for the past few years. This article presents the results of an empirical case study in the area of preventive health care services. The primary data were gathered in workshops, in which future personal data-based services were conceptualized by analyzing future scenarios from a business perspective. The aim of this study is to understand business model transformation in emerging personal data ecosystems. The work was done as a case study in the context of occupational healthcare. The results have implications to theory and practice, indicating that adopting personal data management principles requires transformation of the business model, which, if successfully managed, may provide access to more resources, potential to offer better value, and additional customer channels. These advantages correlate with the broadening of the business ecosystem. Expanding the scope of this study to include more actors would improve the validity of the research. The results draw from existing literature and are based on findings from a case study and the economic properties of the healthcare industry in Finland.

Keywords: ecosystem, business model, personal data, preventive healthcare

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Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

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The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 142