Search results for: foreign TV series

Authors: Anthony George Armiger II

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the counternarcotic strategies of US government agencies in Afghanistan from 2001-2014. Despite a heavy US presence in the country, Afghanistan currently accounts for 80% of opium production worldwide and remains a key contributor to the global drug market. This paper argues that the divergent counternarcotic strategies of various US government agencies on the ground in Afghanistan are a product of the organizational differences amongst those agencies and that those differences can challenge the implementation of counternarcotics policies in Afghanistan. To gain a more in-depth perspective, this paper analyzes the counternarcotic strategies of two US government agencies in Afghanistan; the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). Utilizing the framework of the organizational behavior model of organizational theory, this paper will highlight the varying organizational interests, opinions, standard operating procedures, and routines of both of the government agencies. The paper concludes with implications on counternarcotics, as well as the counterinsurgency in Afghanistan and provides recommendations for future research on foreign policy and counternarcotics.

Keywords: Afghanistan, drug policy, organizational theory, United States foreign policy

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Authors: Salim Belouettar, Kodjo Attipou

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The thermal wrinkling behavior of thin membranes is investigated. The Fourier double scale series are used to deduce the macroscopic membrane wrinkling equations. The obtained equations account for the global and local wrinkling modes. Numerical examples are conducted to assess the validity of the approach developed. Compared to the finite element full model, the present model needs only few degrees of freedom to recover accurately the bifurcation curves and wrinkling paths. Different parameters such as membrane’s aspect ratio, wave number, pre-stressed membranes are discussed from a numerical point of view and the properties of the wrinkles (critical load, wavelength, size and location) are presented.

Keywords: wrinkling, thermal stresses, Fourier series, thin membranes

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Authors: Gassrm Alfaleh

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The new Law of Universities has many goals, one of them is how each university can be independent financially and educationally. Another goal is to open doors for foreign universities to open branches in the kingdom. This paper focuses on how these goals can create competition between local and foreign universities. And how this new law can bring significant changes in the Kingdom’s higher education sector. The methodology of this study is to compare the new Saudi law to another legal system, especially in Australia. And how this new law can affect the higher education environment and Saudi culture. It covers the view of other different legal jurisdictions and compares it to this new law. The major findings are that the new law of universities can give a chance to Saudi universities to achieve their goals based on empowerment, quality, and participate in developing the educational and research methods. It may allow universities to start their own resources, permit them to create endowments and companies, and may allow them to create their degrees and programs. It will help those universities to increase the efficiency of spending, developing financial resources, and human capabilities for universities in line with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030. As a result, this paper states whether this new law can improve higher education in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: law, education, Saudi legal system, university

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Authors: Seok Hong Min, Tae Kwon Ha

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In this study, thermal fatigue properties of 400 series ferritic stainless steels have been evaluated in the temperature ranges of 200-800oC and 200-900oC. Systematic methods for control of temperatures within the predetermined range and measurement of load applied to specimens as a function of temperature during thermal cycles have been established. Thermal fatigue tests were conducted under fully constrained condition, where both ends of specimens were completely fixed. It has been revealed that load relaxation behavior at the temperatures of thermal cycle was closely related with the thermal fatigue property. Thermal fatigue resistance of 430J1L stainless steel is found to be superior to the other steels.

Keywords: ferritic stainless steel, automotive exhaust, thermal fatigue, microstructure, load relaxation

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Authors: Manit Pollar

Abstract:

Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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Authors: Hajar Hajmohammadi, Paul Pfeffer, Anna De Simoni, Jim Cole, Chris Griffiths, Sally Hull, Benjamin Heydecker

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Background: There is strong interest in the relationship between short-term air pollution exposure and human health. Most studies in this field focus on serious health effects such as death or hospital admission, but air pollution exposure affects many people with less severe impacts, such as exacerbations of respiratory conditions. A lack of quantitative analysis and inconsistent findings suggest improved methodology is needed to understand these effectsmore fully. Method: We developed a time series regression model to quantify the relationship between daily NOₓ concentration and Asthma exacerbations requiring oral steroids from primary care settings. Explanatory variables include daily NOₓ concentration measurements extracted from 8 available background and roadside monitoring stations in east London and daily ambient temperature extracted for London City Airport, located in east London. Lags of NOx concentrations up to 21 days (3 weeks) were used in the model. The dependent variable was the daily number of oral steroid courses prescribed for GP registered patients with asthma in east London. A mixed distribution model was then fitted to the significant lags of the regression model. Result: Results of the time series modelling showed a significant relationship between NOₓconcentrations on each day and the number of oral steroid courses prescribed in the following three weeks. In addition, the model using only roadside stations performs better than the model with a mixture of roadside and background stations.

Keywords: air pollution, time series modeling, public health, road transport

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Lia Matchavariani

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Water reservoir construction on the rivers flowing into the sea complicates the coast protection, seashore starts to degrade causing coast erosion and disaster on the backdrop of current climate change. The instruments of the impact of a water reservoir on the climate and coastal areas are its contact surface with the atmosphere and the area irrigated with its water or humidified with infiltrated waters. The Black Sea coastline is characterized by the highest ecological vulnerability. The type and intensity of the water reservoir impact are determined by its morphometry, type of regulation, level regime, and geomorphological and geological characteristics of the adjoining area. Studies showed the impact of the water reservoir on the climate, on its comfort parameters is positive if it is located in the zone of insufficient humidity and vice versa, is negative if the water reservoir is found in the zone with abundant humidity. There are many natural and anthropogenic factors determining the peculiarities of the impact of the water reservoir on the climate, which can be assessed with maximum accuracy by the so-called “long series” method, which operates on the meteorological elements (temperature, wind, precipitations, etc.) with the long series formed with the stationary observation data. This is the time series, which consists of two periods with statistically sufficient duration. The first period covers the observations up to the formation of the water reservoir and another period covers the observations accomplished during its operation. If no such data are available, or their series is statistically short, “an analog” method is used. Such an analog water reservoir is selected based on the similarity of the environmental conditions. It must be located within the zone of the designed water reservoir, under similar environmental conditions, and besides, a sufficient number of observations accomplished in its coastal zone.

Keywords: coast-constituent sediment, eustasy, meteorological parameters, seashore degradation, water reservoirs impact

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Authors: Tatiana Belmonte dos Santos Rodrigues

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This is a comparative study between the training process of teachers of English as a foreign language in a Brazilian institution and an Italian institution, analyzing the academic curriculum, which includes courses mandatory internship activities, among other curricular aspects, and investigating the motivations that lead pre-service teachers to pursue a teaching career. The two institutions involved in this research are considered the oldest in Brazil, the Federal University of Amazonas, created in 1909, and the oldest in Italy, the University of Bologna, created in 1088. The general problem, or guiding question of this research, therefore, is: What is the role of the academic curriculum in motivating and consolidating the teaching of English as a Foreign Language (EFL) as a professional career? The hypothesis be investigated is that the degree courses of the two institutions apply in their curricula the pedagogical contours described in Shulman (2005), essential for the consolidation of the specificities of professional teacher training, which would lead to the strengthening of motivation pre-service professors to remain in this professional career plan, both for those who have already entered the course with pre-established external or internal motivations and for those who entered without apparent motivation. This is qualitative research (CRESWELL, 2007), with the application of field research, where documental analysis of the academic curriculum was carried out together with interviews with preservice teachers of the two institutions and analysis through interpretivism (MERTENS, 2010). The curriculum was analyzed in the light of Shulman (2005) and the interviewees' motivational discourse were analyzed from the perspective of Lovely (2012)'s discoveries. At the end, the data was crossed to answer the guiding question of the research, generating the proposed comparative study.

Keywords: preservice teachers, academic curriculum, motivation, english as a foreign language

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Authors: Akbarnejad Neda

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A foreign language acquisition occurs when we can tell a joke and understand it. Most jokes are told in slang and common language. In the process of foreign language acquisition, an autonomous learner try to learn the standard language. But there is a colossal divergence between the usage of the different types of language in society. Here, we investigate the french slang and common language and examine the accurate perception of their usage. We illuminate the slang language in the french literature that provide considerably different types of language for an autonomous learner. We provide furthermore evidence from the french novels that demonstrate properly the different types of language and give in one sentence its social meanings. For example, the famous Queneau expression « Doukipudonktant » present the impact of slang language in society. The characters in the novel transfer the slang and the common language and their accurate usages. We present that the language of the autonomous learner depends on the language of the text that is read. Because literature is a vehicle of the culture and the expression demonstrate their real significations and usage in the culture, slang and common language have a crucial role in the culture and all of them are manifested in the oral language.

Keywords: common language, french, humor, slang language

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Andrew Wee

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As a result of the Italian Independence Wars starting in 1848, Italy began to change through unification. People gradually moved away from some of their traditional practices and values, such as the long-held belief that women were inferior to men, as part of the Risorgimento. Italians began to take interest in opera as a form of emotional release. As opera became more popular and prominent in their culture, it aided in the dissemination of ideas, especially stimulating the spread of imperialism, in the late 19th century, as Italy began extending its presence to other countries. In order to collect the information needed to analyze Italy’s foreign presence, it was necessary to consult texts concerning the culture of the Risorgimento. These texts included primary sources from operatic composers and contemporary recorded accounts. Letters from Giuseppe Verdi, a leader in opera during the Risorgimento, have been scrutinized for indications of popular attitudes of the time. The cultural context of the Risorgimento is essential to understanding the Italian motives and attitudes towards the outside world. On the more political side, research has also entailed the study of historical data of general laws, policies, and their purposes concerning geopolitical boundaries and foreign affairs, such as Edward Said’s thesis on Orientalism. By establishing these two characteristics of Italy, the paper will thoroughly illustrate Italy’s presence in foreign affairs. Texts have been searched with the intent of using information that reveals Italian attitudes toward exotic countries to determine whether their demeanor was positive or condescending. Motives behind sources have been interpreted in context in order to form a complete picture of the Italian sentiment towards foreigners. Additionally, research pertaining to Italian nationalism and imperialism such as song and literature has been used. The primary form of research has been the division of sources that are culturally based and those that are political in nature. Opera had always been developing since its creation in the 17th century, and in the 19th century, the bel canto movement revolutionized opera and its role in Italian society. This paper uses evidence that popular sentiment was influenced by opera to support the belief that the evolution of opera was as a result of the nationalist sentiment, and in turn fueled the cultural movement known as the Risorgimento. In this way, opera proceeded to affect Italian culture by spreading the idea of imperialism.

Keywords: opera, Italian unification, music history, imperialism

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Authors: Malraj Bharatha Kiriella

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of tourism foreign direct investment (TFDI) to selected developing countries during 1978-2017. The study used pooled panel data to estimate an econometric model. The findings show that market size and institutional barriers are determining factors for TFDI in countries, while other variables of positive country conditions, FDI-related government policy, tourism-related infrastructure and labor conditions are insignificant. The result shows that institutional effects are positive, while market size negatively affects TFDI inflows. The research is limited to eight developing countries. The results can be used to support government policy on TFDI. The paper makes the following contributions: First, it provides important insight and understanding into the TFDI decision-making process in developing countries. Second, both TFDI theory and evidence are minimal, and an econometric model developed on the basis of available literature has been empirically tested.

Keywords: determinants, developing countries, FDI in tourism, panel data

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Authors: Qian Wang, Haibo Gu

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To drive practical interpretations and applications of various policies in building the transnational education joint-ventures, middle managers learn to navigate through uncertainties and ambiguities. However, the current literature views very little about those middle managers’ experiences, perceptions, and practices. This paper takes the empirical approach and aims to uncover the middle managers’ experiences by conducting interviews, campus visits, and document analysis. Following the qualitative research method approach, the researchers gathered information from a mixture of fourteen foreign and Chinese managers. Their perceptions of the China-foreign cooperation in higher education and their perceived roles have offered important, valuable insights to this group of people’s attitudes and management performances. The diverse cultural and demographic backgrounds contributed to the significance of the study. There are four key findings. One, middle managers’ immediate micro-contexts and individual attitudes are the top two influential factors in managers’ performances. Two, the foreign middle managers showed a stronger sense of self-identity in risk-taking. Three, the Chinese middle managers preferred to see difficulties as part of their assigned responsibilities. Four, middle managers in independent universities demonstrated a stronger sense of belonging and fewer frustrations than middle managers in secondary institutes. The researchers propose that training for managers in a transnational educational setting should consider these discoveries when select fitting topics and content. In particular, middle managers should be better prepared to anticipate their everyday jobs in the micro-environment; hence, information concerning sponsor organizations’ working culture is as essential as knowing the national and local regulations, and socio-culture. Different case studies can help the managers to recognize and celebrate the diversity in transnational education. Situational stories can help them to become aware of the diverse and wide range of work contexts so that they will not feel to be left alone when facing challenges without relevant previous experience or training. Though this research is a case study based in the Chinese transnational higher education setting, the implications could be relevant and comparable to other transnational higher education situations and help to continue expanding the potential applications in this field.

Keywords: educational management, middle manager performance, transnational higher education

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Authors: A. Ishag, E. Witruk, C. Altmayer

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Motivation and attitudes are considered as hypothetical psychological constructs in explaining the process of second language learning. Gardner (1985) – who first systematically investigated the motivational factors in second language acquisition – found that L2 achievement is related not only to the individual learner’s linguistic aptitude or general intelligence but also to the learner’s motivation and interest in learning the target language. Traditionally language learning motivation can be divided into two types: integrative motivation – the desire to integrate oneself with the target culture; and instrumental motivation – the desire to learn a language in order to meet a specific language requirement such as for employment. One of the Gardner’s main ideas is that the integrative motivation plays an important role in second language acquisition. It is directly and positively related to second language achievement more than instrumental motivation. However, the significance of integrative motivation reflects a rather controversial set of findings. On the other hand, Students’ attitudes towards the target language, its speakers and the learning context may all play some part in explaining their success in learning a language. Accordingly, the present study aims at exploring the significance of motivational and attitudinal factors in learning foreign languages, namely English and German among Sudanese undergraduate students from a psycholinguistic and interdisciplinary perspective. The sample composed of 221 students from the English and German language departments respectively at the University of Khartoum in Sudan. The results indicate that English language’s learners are instrumentally motivated and that German language’s learners have positive attitudes towards the German language community and culture. Furthermore, there are statistical significant differences in the attitudes toward the two languages due to gender; where female students have more positive attitudes than their male counterparts. However, there are no differences along the variables of academic grade and study level. Finally, the reasons of studying the English or German language have also been indicated.

Keywords: motivation and attitudes, foreign language learning, english language, german language

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Authors: Shamim Ali

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Researchers and teachers have begun developing digital games and model environments for educational purpose; therefore this study examines the effect of a videos game on secondary school students’ language learning motivation. Secondly, it tries to find out the opportunities to develop a decision making process and simultaneously it analyzes the solutions for further implementation in educational setting. Participants were 30 male students randomly assigned to one of the following three treatments: 10 students were assigned to read the game’s story; 10 students were players, who played video game; and, and the last 10 students acted as watchers and observers, their duty was to watch their classmates play the digital video game. A language learning motivation scale was developed and it was given to the participants as a pre- and post-test. Results indicated a significant language learning motivation and the participants were quite motivated in the end. It is, thus, concluded that the use of video games can help enhance high school students’ language learning motivation. It was suggested that video games should be used as a complementary activity not as a replacement for textbook since excessive use of video games can divert the original purpose of learning.

Keywords: EFL, English as a Foreign Language, motivation, video games, EFL learners

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Authors: Khiari Nor El Houda, Hiouani Amira Sarra

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Many EFL students with high capacities are hidden because they suffer from speaking anxiety (SA). Most of them find public speaking much demanding. They feel unable to communicate, they fear to make mistakes and they fear negative evaluation or being called on. With the growing number of the learners who suffer from foreign language speaking anxiety (FLSA), it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore its harmful outcomes on their performance and success, especially during their first contact with the pupils, as they will be teaching in the near future. Different researchers suggested different ways to minimize the negative effects of FLSA. The present study sheds light on emotional intelligence skills training as an effective strategy not only to influence public speaking success but also to help pre-service EFL teachers lessen their speaking anxiety and eventually to prepare them for their professional career. A quasi-experiment was used in order to examine the research hypothesis. We worked with two groups of third-year EFL students at Oum El Bouaghi University. The Foreign Language Classroom Anxiety Scale (FLCAS) and the Emotional Quotient Inventory (EQ-i) were used to collect data about the participants’ FLSA and EI levels. The analysis of the data has yielded that the assumption that there is a negative correlation between EI and FLSA was statistically validated by the Pearson Correlation Test, concluding that, the more emotionally intelligent the individual is the less anxious s/he will be. In addition, the lack of amelioration in the results of the control group and the noteworthy improvement in the experimental group results led us to conclude that EI skills training was an effective strategy in minimizing the FLSA level and therefore, we confirmed our research hypothesis.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, emotional intelligence skills training, EQ-I, FLCAS, foreign language speaking anxiety, pre-service EFL teachers

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study of rainfall time series of weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand using various statistical methods enabled to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. ARIMA and Holt-Winter models based on exponential smoothing were built. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore, could give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for proper planning of agriculture, drainage system and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We found the best perform for forecasting is ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winter model

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Authors: Smita Sonker, Uaday Singh

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Various investigators have determined the degree of approximation of functions belonging to the classes W(L r , ξ(t)), Lip(ξ(t), r), Lip(α, r), and Lipα using different summability methods with monotonocity conditions. Recently, Lal has determined the degree of approximation of the functions belonging to Lipα and W(L r , ξ(t)) classes by using Ces`aro-N¨orlund (C 1 .Np)- summability with non-increasing weights {pn}. In this paper, we shall determine the degree of approximation of 2π - periodic functions f belonging to the function classes Lipα and W(L r , ξ(t)) by C 1 .T - means of Fourier series of f. Our theorems generalize the results of Lal and we also improve these results in the light off. From our results, we also derive some corollaries.

Keywords: Lipschitz classes, product matrix operator, signals, trigonometric Fourier approximation

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Authors: Juan Peña Aguilar, Lilia Villasana, Rodrigo Valencia, Alberto Pastrana, Martin Vivanco, Juan Peña C

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Each year a growing number of companies entering Mexico in search of the domestic market share. These activities, including stores, telephone long distance and local raw materials and energy, and particularly the financial sector, have managed to significantly increase its weight in the flows of FDI in Mexico , however, you should consider whether these trends FDI are positive for the Mexican economy and these activities increase Mexican exports in the medium term , and its share in GDP , gross fixed capital formation and employment. In general stresses that these activities, by far, have been unable to significantly generate linkages with the rest of the economy, a process that has not favored with competitiveness policies and activities aimed at these neutral or horizontal. Since the nineties foreign direct investment (FDI) has shown a remarkable dynamism, both internationally and in Latin America and in Mexico. Only in Mexico the first recipient of FDI in importance in Latin America during 1990-1995 and was displaced by Brazil since FDI increased from levels below 1 % of GDP during the eighties to around 3 % of GDP during the nineties. Its impact has been significant not only from a macroeconomic perspective , it has also allowed the generation of a new industrial production structure and organization, parallel to a significant modernization of a segment of the economy. The case of Mexico also is particularly interesting and relevant because the destination of FDI until 1993 had focused on the purchase of state assets during privatization process. This paper aims to present FDI flows in Mexico and analyze the different business strategies that have been touched and encouraged by the FDI. On the one hand, looking briefly discuss regulatory issues and source and recipient of FDI sectors. Furthermore, the paper presents in more detail the impacts and changes that generated the FDI contribution of FDI in the Mexican economy , besides the macroeconomic context and later legislative changes that resulted in the current regulations is examined around FDI in Mexico, including aspects of the Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It is worth noting that foreign investment can not only be considered from the perspective of the receiving economic units. Instead, these flows also reflect the strategic interests of transnational corporations (TNCs) and other companies seeking access to markets and increased competitiveness of their production networks and global distribution, among other reasons. Similarly it is important to note that foreign investment in its various forms is critically dependent on historical and temporal aspects. Thus, the same functionality can vary significantly depending on the specific characteristics of both receptor units as sources of FDI, including macroeconomic, institutional, industrial organization, and social aspects, among others.

Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI), competitiveness, neoliberal regime, globalization, gross domestic product (GDP), NAFTA, macroeconomic

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Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

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Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

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Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

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This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: TThailand tourism, Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information

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Authors: Nada Alghali

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Translanguaging pedagogy suggests a new perspective in language education relating to multilingualism; multilingual learners have one linguistic repertoire and not two or more separate language systems (García and Wei, 2014). When learners translanguage, they are able to draw on all their language features in a flexible and integrated way (Otheguy, García, & Reid, 2015). In the Foreign Language Classroom, however, the tendency to use the target language only is still advocated as a pedagogy. This study attempts to enable learners in the English as a foreign language classroom to draw on their full linguistic repertoire through collaborative reading lessons. In observations prior to this study, in a classroom where English only policy prevails, learners still used their first language in group discussions yet were constrained at times by the teacher’s language policies. Through strategically enabling translanguaging in reading lessons (Celic and Seltzer, 2011), this study has revealed that learners showed creative ways of language use for learning and reflected positively on thisexperience. This case study enabled two groups in two different proficiency level classrooms who are learning English as a foreign language in their first year at University in Saudi Arabia. Learners in the two groups wereobserved over six weeks and wereasked to reflect their learning every week. The same learners were also interviewed at the end of translanguaging weeks after completing a modified model of the learning reflection (Ash and Clayton, 2009). This study positions translanguaging as collaborative and agentive within a sociocultural framework of learning, positioning translanguaging as a resource for learning as well as a process of learning. Translanguaging learning episodes are elicited from classroom observations, artefacts, interviews, reflections, and focus groups, where they are analysed qualitatively following the sociocultural discourse analysis (Fairclough &Wodak, 1997; Mercer, 2004). Initial outcomes suggest functions of translanguaging in collaborative reading tasks and recommendations for a collaborative translanguaging pedagogy approach in the EFL classroom.

Keywords: translanguaging, EFL, sociocultural theory, discourse analysis

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Authors: F. Messaoudi, O. Haddad, R. Bouras, S. Kaci

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The development of self-compacting concrete (SCC) marks a huge step towards improved efficiency and working conditions on construction sites and in the precast industry. SCC flows easily into more complex shapes and through reinforcement bars, reduces the manpower required for the placement; no vibration is required to ensure correct compaction of concrete. This concrete contains a high volume of binder which is controlled by their rheological behavior. The paste consists of binders (Portland cement with or without supplementary cementitious materials), water, chemical admixtures and fillers. In this study, two series of tests were performed on self-compacting cement pastes made with marble waste additions as the mineral addition. The first series of this investigation was to determine the flow time of paste using Marsh cone, the second series was to determine the rheological parameters of the same paste namely yield stress and plastic viscosity using the rheometer Haake RheoStress 1. The results of this investigation allowed us to study the evolution of the yield stress, viscosity and the flow time Marsh cone paste as a function of the composition of the paste. A correlation between the results obtained on the flow test Marsh cone and those of the plastic viscosity on the mottled different cement pastes is proposed.

Keywords: adjuvant, rheological parameter, self-compacting cement pastes, waste marble

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Authors: Himanshu Chandrakar, Krishnapriya S., Rama Komaragiri, Suja K. J.

Abstract:

Micro coils are significant components for micro magnetic sensors and actuators especially in biomedical devices. Non-spiral planar microcoils of square, hexagonal and octagonal shapes are introduced for the first time in this paper. Comparison between different planar spiral and non-spiral coils are also discussed. The fabrication advantages and low power dissipation of non-spiral structures make them a strong alternative for conventional spiral planar coils. Series resistance of non-spiral coil is lesser than that of spiral coils though magnetic field is slightly lesser for non-spiral coils. Comparison of different planar microcoils shows that the proposed square non-spiral coil gives better performance than other structures.

Keywords: non-spiral planar microcoil, power dissipation, series resistance, spiral

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Authors: Wieslaw Marszalek, Zdzislaw Trzaska

Abstract:

Interesting properties of various one-period loops of singularly perturbed memristive circuits with mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs) are analyzed in this paper. The analysis is mixed, both analytical and numerical and focused on the properties of pinched hysteresis of the memristive element and other one-period loops formed by pairs of time-series solutions for various circuits' variables. The memristive element is the only nonlinear element in the two circuits. A theorem on periods of mixed-mode oscillations of the circuits is formulated and proved. Replacements of memristors by parallel G-C or series R-L circuits for a MMO response with equivalent RMS values is also discussed.

Keywords: mixed-mode oscillations, memristive circuits, pinched hysteresis, one-period loops, singularly perturbed circuits

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Authors: Smita Pareek, Ratna Dahiya

Abstract:

The power generated by solar photovoltaic (PV) module depends on surrounding irradiance, temperature, shading conditions, and shading pattern. This paper presents a simulation of photovoltaic module using Matlab/Simulink. PV Array is also simulated by series and parallel connections of modules and their characteristics curves are given. Further PV module topology/configuration are proposed for 5.5kW inverter available in the literature. Shading of a PV array either complete or partial can have a significant impact on its power output and energy yield; therefore, the simulated model characteristics curves (I-V and P-V) are drawn for uniform shading conditions (USC) and then output power, voltage and current are calculated for variation in insolation for shading conditions. Additionally the characteristics curves are also given for a predetermined shadowing condition.

Keywords: array, series, parallel, photovoltaic, partial shading

Procedia PDF Downloads 542

Authors: Hidehiro Endo, Taizo Shigemichi

Abstract:

Introduction & Objectives: In 2008, the revised course of study for elementary schools was published by MEXT, and from the beginning of the academic year of 2011-2012, foreign language activities (English lessons) became mandatory for 5th and 6th graders in Japanese elementary schools. Foreign language activities are currently offered once a week for approximately 50 minutes by elementary school teachers, assistant language teachers who are native speakers of English, volunteers, among others, with the purpose of helping children become accustomed to functional English. However, the new policy has disclosed a myriad of issues in conducting foreign language activities since the majority of the current elementary school teachers has neither English teaching experience nor English proficiency. Nevertheless, converting foreign language activities into English, as a subject in Japanese elementary schools (for 5th and 6th graders) from 2020 is what MEXT currently envisages with the purpose of reforming English education in Japan. According to their new proposal, foreign language activities will be mandatory for 3rd and 4th graders from 2020. Consequently, gaining better access to English learning opportunities becomes one of the primary concerns even in early childhood education. Thus, in this project, we aim to explore some nursery schools’ attempts at providing toddlers with online English lessons via Skype. The main purpose of this project is to look deeply into what roles online English lessons in the nursery schools play in guiding nursery school children to enjoy learning the English language as well as to acquire English communication skills. Research Methods: Setting; The main research site is a nursery school located in the northern part of Japan. The nursery school has been offering a 20-minute online English lesson via Skype twice a week to 7 toddlers since September 2015. The teacher of the online English lessons is a male person who lives in the Philippines. Fieldwork & Data; We have just begun collecting data by attending the Skype English lessons. Direct observations are the principal components of the fieldwork. By closely observing how the toddlers respond to what the teacher does via Skype, we examine what components stimulate the toddlers to pay attention to the English lessons. Preliminary Findings & Expected Outcomes: Although both data collection and analysis are ongoing, we found that the online English teacher remembers the first name of each toddler and calls them by their first name via Skype, a technique that is crucial in motivating the toddlers to actively participate in the lessons. In addition, when the teacher asks the toddlers the name of a plastic object such as grapes in English, the toddlers tend to respond to the teacher in Japanese. Accordingly, the effective use of Japanese in teaching English for nursery school children need to be further examined. The anticipated results of this project are an increased recognition of the significance of creating English language learning opportunities for nursery school children and a significant contribution to the field of early childhood education.

Keywords: teaching children, English education, early childhood education, nursery school

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Aqeel Akhtar

Abstract:

One of prevailing modes of finance in emerging Islamic banking system is Murabah’a; a financial transaction in which cost and profit both must be recognized by buyer. Otherwise the transaction would become invalid. In this mainstream, import Murabah’a transaction is divergent in such a way that the cost is not recognized and identified due to execution of import transaction in foreign currency i.e. US Dollar and the next transaction of Murabaha’a with the client is executed in local currency. Since this transaction is executed in dual currency i.e. bank pays supplier in foreign currency and executes Murabah’a with its client in local currency and it is not allowed in according to Islamic Injunctions as mentioned in hadith narrated by Hazrat Ibn-e-Umar (May Allah be pleased with them) used to sell his camels with Dirhams and take dinars instead and vice versa. Upon revealing before the Prophet (SAW), he was advised that it must not be contingent in the agreement and the ready rate would be applied and possession of one of the consideration is compulsory. The solution in this regard is that the import Murabah’a transaction should be in single currency, however, other currency can be paid in payment at the time of payment in a very indispensable situation provided that ready rate would be applied. Moreover, some of other solutions have also been given in this regard.

Keywords: shariah compliance, import murabaha, islamic banking, product development

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Daumantas Zidanavicius

Abstract:

In order to investigate the bond between concrete and steel in the circular steel tube column filled with concrete, the 7 series of specimens were tested with the same geometrical parameters but different concrete properties. Two types of specimens were chosen. For the first type, the expansive additives to the concrete mixture were taken to increase internal forces. And for the second type, mechanical components were used. All 7 series of the short columns were modeled by FEM and tested experimentally. In the work, big attention was taken to the bond-slip models between steel and concrete. Results show that additives to concrete let increase the bond strength up to two times and the mechanical anchorage –up to 6 times compared to control specimens without additives and anchorage.

Keywords: concrete filled steel tube, push-out test, bond slip relationship, bond stress distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 108