Search results for: exponential failure

Authors: Zahir Bakiri, Saci Nacefa

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In this paper a comparison in made between two models, with and without dispersion term, and focused on the characterization of the movement of the sludge blanket in the secondary sedimentation tank using the solid flux theory and the velocity settling. This allowed us develop a one-dimensional models, with and without dispersion based on a thorough experimental study carried out in situ and the application of online data which are the mass load flow, transfer concentration, and influent characteristic. On the other hand, in the proposed model, the new settling velocity law (double-exponential function) used is based on the Vesilind function.

Keywords: wastewater, activated sludge, sedimentation, settling velocity, settling models

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Wan Noorul Hafilah Binti Wan Ariffin

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Dam safety management is the crucial infrastructure as dam failure has a catastrophic effect on the community. Dam safety management is the effective framework of key actions and activities for the dam owner to manage the safety of the dam for its entire life cycle. However, maintaining dam safety is a challenging task as there are changes in current dam states. These changes introduce new risks to the dam's safety, which had not been considered when the dam was designed. A new framework has to be developed to adapt to the changes in the dam risk and make the dams resilient. This study proposes a risk-based decision-making adaptation framework for dam safety management. The research focuses on climate change's impact on hydrological situations as it causes floods and damages the dam structure. The risk analysis framework is adopted to improve the dam management strategies. The proposed study encompasses four phases. To start with, measuring the effect by assessing the impact of climate change on embankment dam, the second phase is to analyze the potential embankment dam failures. The third is analyzing the different components of risks related to the dam and, finally, developing a robust decision-making framework.

Keywords: climate change, embankment dam, failure, risk-informed decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Gadisa Alemayehu, Muralidhar Avvari, Atkilt Mulu G.

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Since 1962 EC, the Faffa Food Share Company has been producing and supplying flour (famix) and value-added flour (baby food) in Ethiopia. It meets nearly all of the country's total flour demand, both for relief and commercial markets. However, it is incompetent in the international market due to a poor maintenance management system. The results of recorded documents and stopwatches revealed that frequent failure machines, as well as a poor maintenance management system, cause increased production downtimes, resulting in a 29.19 percent decrease in production from the planned production. As a result, the current study's goal is to recommend newly developed software for use in and as a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS). As a result, the system increases machine reliability and decreases the frequency of equipment failure, reducing breakdown time and maintenance costs. The company's overall manufacturing performance improved by 4.45 percent, particularly after the implementation of the CMMS.

Keywords: CMMS, manufacturing performance, delivery, availability, flexibility, Faffa Food Share Company

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Elif Kalkanli, Constantinos Soutis

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The use of textile preform in the advanced fields including aerospace, automotive and marine has exponentially grown in recent years. These preforms offer excellent advantages such as being lightweight and low-cost, and also, their suitability for creating different fiber architectures with different materials whilst improved mechanical properties in certain aspects. In this study, a novel honeycomb core is developed by a 3Dweaving process. The assembly of the layers is achieved thanks to innovative weaving design. Polyester yarn is selected for the 3D woven honeycomb core (3DWHC). The core is used to manufacture a sandwich panel with 2x2 twill glass fiber composite face sheets. These 3DWHC sandwich panels will be tested in three-point bending. The in-plane and out-of-plane (through-the-thickness) mechanical response of the core will be examined as a function of cell size in addition to the flexural response of the sandwich panel. The failure mechanisms of the core and the sandwich skins will be reported in addition to flexural strength and stiffness. Possible engineering applications will be identified.

Keywords: 3D woven, assembly, failure modes, honeycomb sandwich panel

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Authors: Esteban Morales Murillo, Ephraim Mokgothu

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This paper presents the findings of a study conducted to investigate the wall thinning in a piping system carrying a mix of hydrocarbons in a petrochemical plant. A detailed investigation including optical inspection and several characterisation techniques such as optical microscopy, SEM/EDX, and XRF/C-S analyses was conducted. The examinations revealed that the wall thinning in the piping system was a result of high-temperature H2/H2S corrosion caused by a susceptible material for this mechanism and operating parameters and effluent concentrations beyond the prescribed limits. The sulfide layers found to testify to the large amounts of H2S that led to material degradation. Deposit analysis revealed that it consisted primarily of carbon, oxygen, iron, chromium and sulfur. Metallographic examinations revealed that the attack initiated from the internal surface and that spheroidization of carbides did occur. The article discusses in detail the contribution failure factors on the Couper-Gorman H2/H2S curves to draw conclusions. Recommendations based on the above findings are also discussed.

Keywords: corrosion, Couper-Gorman, high-temperature corrosion, sulfidation, wall thinning, piping system

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Authors: Zainab A. Alaghbri, Labiba A., Esam A.

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Tuberculosis (TB) is the fourth leading cause of death in Yemen and is considered a major priority by the Ministry of Public Health. The war in Yemen has led to the emergence of one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. These circumstances may lead to exacerbate the situation of tuberculosis. This study aims to describe the trend and incidence of TB in north and east governorates, Yemen 2019-2021 and provide recommendations for interventions. A descriptive analysis was conducted during July to September 2022. Data of TB cases were obtained from the national tuberculosis program as soft copy. The Data included the TB case collected and diagnosed during 2019-2021. The data contains the following variables: Sex, age, governorates, smear-positive cases, extra-pulmonary cases, and treatment outcomes. 16791 TB cases were notified for an overall case notification rate 65.5/100000 for all forms (smear positive and Extra-pulmonary), There was a slightly declined in 2020 and 2021 by 1%. Both the pulmonary smear positive and Extra pulmonary rates were slightly decreased from 8.8 to 7.7 and 13.5 to 12.8 / 100, 000 populations respectively. For Tuberculosis cases by type of patient, the incidence of extra-pulmonary was the highest (12,9, 11.3 and 12,2/100000) over the three years. However, the incidence of pulmonary failure was the lowest. The majority of cases were in the age group 25-34. The overall treatment success rate for smear-positive patients was 88%. Of the 627 patients with documented unsuccessful outcomes (e.g., failure, death, and default), 165 (23%) died, 52 (8.3%) failed treatment, and 410 (65%) defaulted. Overall, the magnitude of tuberculosis decreased over the periods reviewed. The proportion of Extra-pulmonary TB was the highest. The success rate achieved after treatment was below the levels established by the WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy (90%). Failure to complete treatment may be responsible for the low success rate. Monitoring and addressing the risk factors that were associated with treatment outcomes and duration may help improve the likelihood of achieving favorable outcomes among cases of smear-positive pulmonary TB.

Keywords: tuberculosis, trend, incidence, yemen

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Authors: Ezedin Geta Seid

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Slope failures are among the common geo-environmental natural hazards in the hilly and mountainous terrain of the world causing damages to human life and destruction of infrastructures. In Ethiopia, the demand for the construction of infrastructures, especially highways and railways, has increased to connect the developmental centers. However, the failure of roadside slopes formed due to the difficulty of geographical locations is the major difficulty for this development. As a result, a comprehensive site-specific investigation of destabilizing agents and a suitable selection of slope profiles are needed during design. Hence, this study emphasized the stability analysis and performance evaluation of slope profiles (single slope, multi-slope, and benched slope). The analysis was conducted for static and dynamic loading conditions using limit equilibrium (slide software) and finite element method (Praxis software). The analysis results in selected critical sections show that the slope is marginally stable, with FS varying from 1.2 to 1.5 in static conditions, and unstable with FS below 1 in dynamic conditions. From the comparison of analysis methods, the finite element method provides more valuable information about the failure surface of a slope than limit equilibrium analysis. Performance evaluation of geometric profiles shows that geometric modification provides better and more economical slope stability. Benching provides significant stability for cut slopes (i.e., the use of 2m and 3m bench improves the factor of safety by 7.5% and 12% from a single slope profile). The method is more effective on steep slopes. Similarly, the use of a multi-slope profile improves the stability of the slope in stratified soil with varied strength. The performance is more significant when it is used in combination with benches. The study also recommends drainage control and slope reinforcement as a remedial measure for cut slopes.

Keywords: slope failure, slope profile, bench slope, multi slope

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Authors: Arwin Malabanan, Carl Chester Ragudo, Jerome Tadiosa, John Dee Mangoba, Eric Augustus Tingatinga, Romeo Eliezer Longalong

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Concrete hollow blocks (CHB) are the most commonly used masonry block for walls in residential houses, school buildings and public buildings in the Philippines. During the recent 2013 Bohol earthquake (Mw 7.2), it has been proven that CHB walls are very vulnerable to severe external action like strong ground motion. In this paper, a numerical model of CHB structures is proposed, and seismic behavior of CHB houses is presented. In modeling, the Rigid Body Spring-Discrete Element method (RBS-DEM)) is used wherein masonry blocks are discretized into rigid elements and connected by nonlinear springs at preselected contact points. The shear and normal stiffness of springs are derived from the material properties of CHB unit incorporating the grout and mortar fillings through the volumetric transformation of the dimension using material ratio. Numerical models of reinforced and unreinforced walls are first subjected to linearly-increasing in plane loading to observe the different failure mechanisms. These wall models are then assembled to form typical model masonry houses and then subjected to the El Centro and Pacoima earthquake records. Numerical simulations show that the elastic, failure and collapse behavior of the model houses agree well with shaking table tests results. The effectiveness of the method in replicating failure patterns will serve as a basis for the improvement of the design and provides a good basis of strengthening the structure.

Keywords: concrete hollow blocks, discrete element method, earthquake, rigid body spring model

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Authors: Cyril Ekuaze

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This paper was instigated by a set of assumption drawn at the introduction to a research work on alternative institutional arrangements for sustaining rural infrastructure in developing countries. Of one of such assumption is the one held that, a problem facing developing countries is the sustaining of infrastructural investment long enough to allow the facility to at least repay the cost of the development as been due to insufficient maintenance. On the contrary, this work argues that, most international partnerships relation with developing nations in developing infrastructures is “vertical modeling” with the hierarchical authority and command flow from top to bottom. The work argued that where international donor partners/agencies set out infrastructural development agenda in the developing nations without cognizance of design suitability and capacity for maintenance by the recipient nations; and where public administrative capacity building in the field of science, technology and engineering requisite for design, development and sustenance of infrastructure in the recipient countries are negated, prospective output becomes problematic.

Keywords: vertical partnerships, responsive failure, infrastructural development, developing countries

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Authors: S. Bayona, J. Nunez, D. Paez, C. Diaz

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The application of Lean manufacturing tools continues to be an effective solution for increasing productivity, reducing costs and eliminating waste in the manufacture of goods and services. This article analyzes the production process of a hot asphalt manufacturing company from an administrative and technical perspective. Three main phases were analyzed, the first phase was related to the determination of the risk priority number of the main operations in asphalt mix production process by an FMEA (Failure Mode Effects Analysis), in the second phase the Value Stream Mapping (VSM) of the production line was performed and in the third phase a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses Opportunities, Threats) matrix was constructed. Among the most valued failure modes were the lack training of workers in occupational safety and health issues, the lack of signaling and classification of granulated material, and the overweight of vehicles loaded. The analysis of the results in the three phases agree on the importance of training operational workers, improve communication with external actors in order to minimize delays in material orders and strengthen control suppliers.

Keywords: asphalt, lean manufacturing, productivity, process

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Authors: Yas Barzegaar, Atrin Barzegar

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The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

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Authors: Sanjal Gavande, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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In a complex aerospace operational environment, identifying failures in a procedure involving multiple human-machine interactions are difficult. These failures could lead to accidents causing loss of hardware or human life. The likelihood of failure further increases if operational procedures are tested for a novel system with multiple human-machine interfaces and with no prior performance data. The existing approach in the literature of reviewing complex operational tasks in a flowchart or tabular form doesn’t provide any insight into potential system failures due to human decision-making ability. To address these challenges, this research explores an agent-based simulation approach for reliability assessment and fault detection in complex human-machine systems while utilizing a human decision-making model. The simulation will predict the emergent behavior of the system due to the interaction between humans and their decision-making capability with the varying states of the machine and vice-versa. Overall system reliability will be evaluated based on a defined set of success-criteria conditions and the number of recorded failures over an assigned limit of Monte Carlo runs. The study also aims at identifying high-likelihood failure locations for the system. The research concludes that system reliability and failures can be effectively calculated when individual human and machine agent states are clearly defined. This research is limited to the operations phase of a system lifecycle process in an aerospace environment only. Further exploration of the proposed agent-based and human decision-making model will be required to allow for a greater understanding of this topic for application outside of the operations domain.

Keywords: agent-based model, complex human-machine system, human decision-making model, system reliability assessment

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, Jung Kyu Choi, Yong Ju Kwak, Oh Hyeon Jeon, Woo Young Jung

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In this study, we investigated the buckling performance of basalt fiber reinforced polymer (BFRP) sandwich infill panels. Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) is a major evolution for energy dissipation when used as infill material of frame structure, a basic Polymer Matrix Composite (PMC) infill wall system consists of two FRP laminates surrounding an infill of foam core. Furthermore, this type of component is for retrofitting and strengthening frame structure to withstand the seismic disaster. In-plane compression was considered in the numerical analysis with ABAQUS platform to determine the buckling failure load of BFRP infill panel system. The present result shows that the sandwich BFRP infill panel system has higher resistance to buckling failure than those of glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) infill panel system, i.e. 16% increase in buckling resistance capacity.

Keywords: Basalt Fiber Reinforced Polymer (BFRP), buckling performance, FEM analysis, sandwich infill panel

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Authors: Abdolrasoul Ghasemi, Ali Arabmazar Yazdi, Yasaman Boroumand, Aliasghar Banouei

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In regional studies, choosing an appropriate approach to analyze regional success or failure has always been a challenge. Hence, this study introduces an innovative approach to establish a link between regional success and failure in the past as well as the potential success of a region in the future. The former can be sought in the historical evaluation of comparative advantages, while the latter is portrayed as competitive advantage analysis with a forward-looking approach. Based on the interaction of comparative and competitive advantages, activities are classified into four groups, including activities with no advantage, hidden advantage, fragile advantage and synergistic advantage. In analyzing the comparative advantage of activities, the location quotient method is applied, and in analyzing their competitive advantage, Porter`s diamond model using the survey method is applied. According to the results, the share of no advantage, fragile advantage, hidden advantage and synergic advantage activities are respectively 10%, 42%, 16%, and 32%. Also, to achieve economic development in regional activities, our model provides various levels of priority. First, the activities with synergistic advantage should be prioritized, then the ones with hidden advantage, and finally the activities with fragile advantage.

Keywords: regional advantage, comparative advantage, competitive advantage, Porter's diamond model

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Authors: Omran M. Kenshel, Alan J. O'Connor

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Estimating the service life of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridge structures located in corrosive marine environments of a great importance to their owners/engineers. Traditionally, bridge owners/engineers relied more on subjective engineering judgment, e.g. visual inspection, in their estimation approach. However, because financial resources are often limited, rational calculation methods of estimation are needed to aid in making reliable and more accurate predictions for the service life of RC structures. This is in order to direct funds to bridges found to be the most critical. Criticality of the structure can be considered either form the Structural Capacity (i.e. Ultimate Limit State) or from Serviceability viewpoint whichever is adopted. This paper considers the service life of the structure only from the Structural Capacity viewpoint. Considering the great variability associated with the parameters involved in the estimation process, the probabilistic approach is most suited. The probabilistic modelling adopted here used Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the Reliability (i.e. Probability of Failure) of the structure under consideration. In this paper the authors used their own experimental data for the Correlation Length (CL) for the most important deterioration parameters. The CL is a parameter of the Correlation Function (CF) by which the spatial fluctuation of a certain deterioration parameter is described. The CL data used here were produced by analyzing 45 chloride profiles obtained from a 30 years old RC bridge located in a marine environment. The service life of the structure were predicted in terms of the load carrying capacity of an RC bridge beam girder. The analysis showed that the influence of SV is only evident if the reliability of the structure is governed by the Flexure failure rather than by the Shear failure.

Keywords: Chloride-induced corrosion, Monte-Carlo simulation, reinforced concrete, spatial variability

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Authors: Khaled Shehata, Hanady Hussien, Sara Yehia

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Securing the data stored on E-passport is a very important issue. RSA encryption algorithm is suitable for such application with low data size. In this paper the design and implementation of 1024 bit-key RSA encryption and decryption module on an FPGA is presented. The module is verified through comparing the result with that obtained from MATLAB tools. The design runs at a frequency of 36.3 MHz on Virtex-5 Xilinx FPGA. The key size is designed to be 1024-bit to achieve high security for the passport information. The whole design is achieved through VHDL design entry which makes it a portable design and can be directed to any hardware platform.

Keywords: RSA, VHDL, FPGA, modular multiplication, modular exponential

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Authors: Laura Pytel, Georg Baumann, Gregor Gstrein, Corina Klug

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Premium cars often coat the instrument panels with a bilaminate consisting of a soft foam and a plastic skin. The coating is torn open during the passenger airbag deployment under high strain rates. Characterizing and simulating the top coat layer is crucial for predicting the attenuation that delays the airbag deployment, effecting the design of the restrain system and to reduce the demand of simulation adjustments through expensive physical component testing.Up to now, bilaminates used within cars either have been modelled by using a two-dimensional shell formulation for the whole coating system as one which misses out the interaction of the two layers or by combining a three-dimensional formulation foam layer with a two-dimensional skin layer but omitting the foam in the significant parts like the expected tear line area and the hinge where high compression is expected. In both cases, the properties of the coating causing the attenuation are not considered. Further, at present, the availability of material information, as there are failure dependencies of the two layers, as well as the strain rate of up to 200 1/s, are insufficient. The velocity of the passenger airbag flap during an airbag shot has been measured with about 11.5 m/s during first ripping; the digital image correlation evaluation showed resulting strain rates of above 1500 1/s. This paper provides a high strain rate material characterization of a bilaminate consisting of a thin polypropylene foam and a thermoplasctic olefins (TPO) skin and the creation of validated material models. With the help of a Split Hopkinson tension bar, strain rates of 1500 1/s were within reach. The experimental data was used to calibrate and validate a more physical modelling approach of the forced ripping of the bilaminate. In the presented model, the three-dimensional foam layer is continuously tied to the two-dimensional skin layer, allowing failure in both layers at any possible position. The simulation results show a higher agreement in terms of the trajectory of the flaps and its velocity during ripping. The resulting attenuation of the airbag deployment measured by the contact force between airbag and flaps increases and serves usable data for dimensioning modules of an airbag system.

Keywords: bilaminate ripping behavior, High strain rate material characterization and modelling, induced material failure, TPO and foam

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Authors: Antonio Pizzarello, Oris Friesen

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Networks, such as the electric power grid, must demonstrate exemplary performance and integrity. Integrity depends on the quality of both the system design model and the deployed software. Integrity of the deployed software is key, for both the original versions and the many that occur throughout numerous maintenance activity. Current software engineering technology and practice do not produce adequate integrity. Distributed systems utilize networks where each node is an independent computer system. The connections between them is realized via a network that is normally redundantly connected to guarantee the presence of a path between two nodes in the case of failure of some branch. Furthermore, at each node, there is software which may fail. Self-stabilizing protocols are usually present that recognize failure in the network and perform a repair action that will bring the node back to a correct state. These protocols first introduced by E. W. Dijkstra are currently present in almost all Ethernets. Super stabilization protocols capable of reacting to a change in the network topology due to the removal or addition of a branch in the network are less common but are theoretically defined and available. This paper describes how to use the Software Integrity Assessment (SIA) methodology to analyze self-stabilizing software. SIA is based on the UNITY formalism for parallel and distributed programming, which allows the analysis of code for verifying the progress property p leads-to q that describes the progress of all computations starting in a state satisfying p to a state satisfying q via the execution of one or more system modules. As opposed to demonstrably inadequate test and evaluation methods SIA allows the analysis and verification of any network self-stabilizing software as well as any other software that is designed to recover from failure without external intervention of maintenance personnel. The model to be analyzed is obtained by automatic translation of the system code to a transition system that is based on the use of the weakest precondition.

Keywords: network, power grid, self-stabilization, software integrity assessment, UNITY, weakest precondition

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Marcov chain, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, strong stability

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Authors: Ali Abd El-Aty, Ahmed Tauseef, Ahmad Farooq

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This research aims at analyzing and optimizing the hydroforming process parameters to achieve a sound bulged tube without failure. Theoretical constitutive model is formulated to develop a working diagram including process window, which represents the optimize region to carry out the hydroforming process and predict the type of tube failure during the process accurately. The model is applied into different bulging ratios for low carbon steel (C1010). From this study, it is concluded that the tubes with bulging ratios up to 50% and 70% are successfully formed without defects. The tubes with bulging ratio of 90% are successfully formed by hydroforming with optimized the loading path (axial feed versus internal pressure) within the process window. The working diagram is modified due to different types of formation of wrinkling during the hydroforming process. The formation of wrinkles with increasing axial feed can be useful in terms of the achievement of higher bulging ratio and/or less thinning and this type of wrinkles can be overcome through the internal pressure in the later stage of the hydroforming process. On the other hand, the formation of wrinkles may be harmful, if it cannot be reversed.

Keywords: finite element, hydroforming, process window, wrinkling

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Yan Zhang

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Predictive maintenance is a technique to predict when an in-service machine will fail so that maintenance can be planned in advance. Analytics-driven predictive maintenance is gaining increasing attention in many industries such as manufacturing, utilities, aerospace, etc., along with the emerging demand of Internet of Things (IoT) applications and the maturity of technologies that support Big Data storage and processing. This study aims to build an end-to-end analytics solution that includes both real-time machine condition monitoring and machine learning based predictive analytics capabilities. The goal is to showcase a general predictive maintenance solution architecture, which suggests how the data generated from field machines can be collected, transmitted, stored, and analyzed. We use a publicly available aircraft engine run-to-failure dataset to illustrate the streaming analytics component and the batch failure prediction component. We outline the contributions of this study from four aspects. First, we compare the predictive maintenance problems from the view of the traditional reliability centered maintenance field, and from the view of the IoT applications. When evolving to the IoT era, predictive maintenance has shifted its focus from ensuring reliable machine operations to improve production/maintenance efficiency via any maintenance related tasks. It covers a variety of topics, including but not limited to: failure prediction, fault forecasting, failure detection and diagnosis, and recommendation of maintenance actions after failure. Second, we review the state-of-art technologies that enable a machine/device to transmit data all the way through the Cloud for storage and advanced analytics. These technologies vary drastically mainly based on the power source and functionality of the devices. For example, a consumer machine such as an elevator uses completely different data transmission protocols comparing to the sensor units in an environmental sensor network. The former may transfer data into the Cloud via WiFi directly. The latter usually uses radio communication inherent the network, and the data is stored in a staging data node before it can be transmitted into the Cloud when necessary. Third, we illustrate show to formulate a machine learning problem to predict machine fault/failures. By showing a step-by-step process of data labeling, feature engineering, model construction and evaluation, we share following experiences: (1) what are the specific data quality issues that have crucial impact on predictive maintenance use cases; (2) how to train and evaluate a model when training data contains inter-dependent records. Four, we review the tools available to build such a data pipeline that digests the data and produce insights. We show the tools we use including data injection, streaming data processing, machine learning model training, and the tool that coordinates/schedules different jobs. In addition, we show the visualization tool that creates rich data visualizations for both real-time insights and prediction results. To conclude, there are two key takeaways from this study. (1) It summarizes the landscape and challenges of predictive maintenance applications. (2) It takes an example in aerospace with publicly available data to illustrate each component in the proposed data pipeline and showcases how the solution can be deployed as a live demo.

Keywords: Internet of Things, machine learning, predictive maintenance, streaming data

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Authors: Frederick Otite Ighovojah

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Corrosion in the oil and gas industries is one of the most common causes of failure. Such failure includes leaks in above-ground storage tanks (AGST). The involvement of microorganisms in the corrosion process in AGST systems is often ignored, and this outlines the need to investigate the effect of microbial corrosion in oil and gas facilities. This study's methodology comprised gathering generated water samples from a nearby AGST oil facility that was operating, which were then equally divided into two batch reactors, 1 and 2. Each batch reactor was filled with five prepared X60 coupons using sterilized forceps. To provide nutrients for the microorganisms in batch reactor 1 during the test period, 2g of NPK 15- 15-15 fertilizer was added on a weekly basis. To kill the microorganisms and significantly lower their concentration in the generated water, 5ml of dissolved ozone (a biocide) with a 0.5ppm concentration was added to batch reactor 2. The weight loss measurement (WLM) was used to evaluate for corrosion. Coupons were removed from each batch reactor, and weight loss was measured at every interval of 336 hrs for 2016 hrs. The overall results obtained indicated that coupons from the batch 1 reactor showed a higher corrosion rate and higher mass loss, and this was due to the metabolic production of an aggressive compound in the medium.

Keywords: AGST, microbial corrosion, reactor, X60 steel

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Authors: Rong-Yang Lai, Jia-Yu Wu, Chih-Han Chang, Yung-Chung Chen

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The dental bridge is one of the clinical methods of the treatment for missing teeth. The dental bridge is generally designed for two layers, containing the inner layer of the framework(zirconia) and the outer layer of the porcelain-fused to framework restorations. The design of a conventional bridge is generally based on the antagonist tooth profile so that the framework evenly indented by an equal thickness from outer contour. All-ceramic dental bridge made of zirconia have well demonstrated remarkable potential to withstand a higher physiological occlusal load in posterior region, but it was found that there is still the risk of all-ceramic bridge failure in five years. Thus, how to reduce the incidence of failure is still a problem to be solved. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop mechanical designs for all-ceramic dental bridges framework by reducing the stress and enhancing fracture resistance under given loading conditions by finite element method. In this study, dental design software is used to design dental bridge based on tooth CT images. After building model, Bi-directional Evolutionary Structural Optimization (BESO) Method algorithm implemented in finite element software was employed to analyze results of finite element software and determine the distribution of the materials in dental bridge; BESO searches the optimum distribution of two different materials, namely porcelain and zirconia. According to the previous calculation of the stress value of each element, when the element stress value is higher than the threshold value, the element would be replaced by the framework material; besides, the difference of maximum stress peak value is less than 0.1%, calculation is complete. After completing the design of dental bridge, the stress distribution of the whole structure is changed. BESO reduces the peak values of principle stress of 10% in outer-layer porcelain and avoids producing tensile stress failure.

Keywords: dental bridge, finite element analysis, framework, automatic program

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Authors: Elham Vojoudi, Marzieh Mehrafza, Ahmad Hosseini, Azadeh Raofi, Maryam Najafi

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Premature ovarian failure (POF) has become one of the main causes of infertility in women of childbearing age and the incidence of this disorder is increasing year by year. In these patients, poor ovarian response (POR) to gonadotropins reflects a diminished ovarian reserve (DOR) that gives place to few follicles despite aggressive stimulation. Up to now, egg donation is the only way to resolve infertility problems in POF patients. Therefore, some novel aspects such as activating (Akt signaling pathway) and inhibiting (Hippo-signaling) elements have been identified as IVA procedure that promotes primordial follicle activation. In this study, we used the newly developed technique (combination of in vitro activation of dormant follicles (IVA) and stem cell therapy) to promote ovarian follicle growth much more efficiently than the natural, in vivo process for women with POF. Transplantation of Warton Jelly-MSCs to the ovaries of POF patients rescued overall ovarian function. Participants (10 patients) were followed up monthly for a period of six months by hormonal (AMH, FSH, LH and E2), clinical (resuming menstruation), and US (folliculometry) outcomes after a laparoscopic operation. In summary, IVA/WJ-MSC transplantation may provide an effective treatment for POF.

Keywords: POF, in vitro activation, stem cell therapy, infertility

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Authors: S. Zhang, L. Zhang, X. Chen

Abstract:

Due to the large uncertainty on the mechanical properties of FRP (fibre reinforced plastic), the reliability evaluation of FRP structures are currently receiving much attention in industry. However, possible statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties has been so far overlooked, and they are mostly assumed to be independent random variables. In this study, the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties of uni-directional and plain weave composite is firstly analyzed by a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and finite element modeling of the FRP unit cell. Large linear correlation coefficients between the in-plane mechanical properties are observed, and the correlation coefficients are heavily dependent on the uncertainty of the fibre volume ratio. It is also observed that the correlation coefficients related to Poisson’s ratio are negative while others are positive. To experimentally achieve the statistical correlation coefficients between in-plane mechanical properties of FRP, all concerned in-plane mechanical properties of the same specimen needs to be known. In-plane shear modulus of FRP is experimentally derived by the approach suggested in the ASTM standard D5379M. Tensile tests are conducted using the same specimens used for the shear test, and due to non-uniform tensile deformation a modification factor is derived by a finite element modeling. Digital image correlation is adopted to characterize the specimen non-uniform deformation. The preliminary experimental results show a good agreement with the numerical analysis on the statistical correlation. Then, failure probability of laminate plates is calculated in cases considering and not considering the statistical correlation, using the Monte-Carlo and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties to achieve accurate failure probability of laminate plates. Furthermore, it is found that for the multi-layer laminate plate, the statistical correlation between the ply elastic properties significantly affects the laminate reliability while the effect of statistical correlation between the ply strength is minimal.

Keywords: failure probability, FRP, reliability, statistical correlation

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Authors: Jamal Abdi

Abstract:

This paper is largely a response/critique of Samuel P. Huntington´s Clash of Civilizations thesis. The overriding argument is that Huntington´s thesis is characterized by failure to distinguish between ´groups´ and ´categories´. Multinational civilizations overcoming their internal collective action problems, which would enable them to pursue a unified strategy vis-à-vis the West, is a rather foundational assumption in his theory. Without assigning sufficient intellectual attention to the processes through which multinational civilizations may gain capacity for concerted action i.e. become a group, he contended that the post-cold-war world would be shaped in large measure by interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. Thus, failure in providing a convincing analysis of multi-national civilizations´ transition from categories to groups is a significant weakness in Huntington´s clash theory. It is also suggested that so-called Islamic terrorism and the war on terror is not to be taken as an expression of presence of clash between a Western and an Islamic civilization, as terrorist organizations would be superfluous in a world characterized by clash of civilizations. Consequences of multinational civilizations becoming a group are discussed in relation to contemporary Western superiority.

Keywords: categories, civilizations, clash, groups, groupness

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Authors: Yue Wang

Abstract:

Five years passed since the newest English curriculum reform policy was published in China, hand-wringing spread among teachers who accused that this is another 'Wearing New Shoes to Walk the Old Road' policy. This paper provides a thoroughly philosophical policy analysis of serious efforts that had been made to support this reform and reveals the hindrances that bridled the reform to yield the desired effect. Blame could be easily put on teachers for their insufficient pedagogical content knowledge, conservative resistance, and the handicaps of large class sizes and limited teaching times, and so on. However, the underlying causes for this implementation failure are the interrelated factors in the NCEE-centred education system, such as the reluctant from students, the lack of school and education bureau support, and insufficient teacher training. A further discussion of 2017 to 2020’s NCEE reform on English prompt new possibilities for the authentic pedagogical approach reform in secondary English classes. In all, the pedagogical approach reform at the secondary level is heading towards a brighter future with the initiation of new NCEE reform.

Keywords: English curriculum, failure, NCEE, new possibilities, pedagogical, policy analysis, reform

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Authors: Rui Teixeira, Alan O’Connor, Maria Nogal

Abstract:

The statistical theory of extreme events is progressively a topic of growing interest in all the fields of science and engineering. The changes currently experienced by the world, economic and environmental, emphasized the importance of dealing with extreme occurrences with improved accuracy. When it comes to the design of offshore structures, particularly offshore wind turbines, the importance of efficiently characterizing extreme events is of major relevance. Extreme events are commonly characterized by extreme values theory. As an alternative, the accurate modeling of the tails of statistical distributions and the characterization of the low occurrence events can be achieved with the application of the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) methodology. The POT methodology allows for a more refined fit of the statistical distribution by truncating the data with a minimum value of a predefined threshold u. For mathematically approximating the tail of the empirical statistical distribution the Generalised Pareto is widely used. Although, in the case of the exceedances of significant wave data (H_s) the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution, which is a specific case of the Generalised Pareto distribution, are frequently used as an alternative. The Generalized Pareto, despite the existence of practical cases where it is applied, is not completely recognized as the adequate solution to model exceedances over a certain threshold u. References that set the Generalised Pareto distribution as a secondary solution in the case of significant wave data can be identified in the literature. In this framework, the current study intends to tackle the discussion of the application of statistical models to characterize exceedances of wave data. Comparison of the application of the Generalised Pareto, the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution are presented for different values of the threshold u. Real wave data obtained in four buoys along the Irish coast was used in the comparative analysis. Results show that the application of the statistical distributions to characterize significant wave data needs to be addressed carefully and in each particular case one of the statistical models mentioned fits better the data than the others. Depending on the value of the threshold u different results are obtained. Other variables of the fit, as the number of points and the estimation of the model parameters, are analyzed and the respective conclusions were drawn. Some guidelines on the application of the POT method are presented. Modeling the tail of the distributions shows to be, for the present case, a highly non-linear task and, due to its growing importance, should be addressed carefully for an efficient estimation of very low occurrence events.

Keywords: extreme events, offshore structures, peak-over-threshold, significant wave data

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Authors: Pushpendra Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar, R. Balasubramanian

Abstract:

Estimation of optical flow from a sequence of images using variational methods is one of the most successful approach. Discontinuity between different motions is one of the challenging problem in flow estimation. In this paper, we design a new anisotropic diffusion operator, which is able to provide smooth flow over a region and efficiently preserve discontinuity in optical flow. This operator is designed on the basis of intensity differences of the pixels and isotropic operator using exponential function. The combination of these are used to control the propagation of flow. Experimental results on the different datasets verify the robustness and accuracy of the algorithm and also validate the effect of anisotropic operator in the discontinuity preserving.

Keywords: optical flow, variational methods, computer vision, anisotropic operator

Procedia PDF Downloads 866