Search results for: error estimates

Authors: Medine Demir, Volker John

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Fluid equations in a rotating frame of reference have a broad class of important applications in meteorology and oceanography, especially in the large-scale flows considered in ocean and atmosphere, as well as many physical and industrial applications. The Coriolis and the centripetal forces, resulting from the rotation of the earth, play a crucial role in such systems. For such applications it may be required to solve the system in complex three-dimensional geometries. In recent years, the Navier--Stokes equations in a rotating frame have been investigated in a number of papers using the classical inf-sup stable mixed methods, like Taylor-Hood pairs, to contribute to the analysis and the accurate and efficient numerical simulation. Numerical analysis reveals that these classical methods introduce a pressure-dependent contribution in the velocity error bounds that is proportional to some inverse power of the viscosity. Hence, these methods are optimally convergent but small velocity errors might not be achieved for complicated pressures and small viscosity coefficients. Several approaches have been proposed for improving the pressure-robustness of pairs of finite element spaces. In this contribution, a pressure-robust space discretization of the incompressible Navier--Stokes equations in a rotating frame of reference is considered. The discretization employs divergence-free, $H^1$-conforming mixed finite element methods like Scott--Vogelius pairs. However, this approach might come with a modification of the meshes, like the use of barycentric-refined grids in case of Scott--Vogelius pairs. However, this strategy requires the finite element code to have control on the mesh generator which is not realistic in many engineering applications and might also be in conflict with the solver for the linear system. An error estimate for the velocity is derived that tracks the dependency of the error bound on the coefficients of the problem, in particular on the angular velocity. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical results. The idea of pressure-robust method could be cast on different types of flow problems which would be considered as future studies. As another future research direction, to avoid a modification of the mesh, one may use a very simple parameter-dependent modification of the Scott-Vogelius element, the pressure-wired Stokes element, such that the inf-sup constant is independent of nearly-singular vertices.

Keywords: navier-stokes equations in a rotating frame of refence, coriolis force, pressure-robust error estimate, scott-vogelius pairs of finite element spaces

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Authors: Itissam Abuiziah

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In several hydraulic systems, it is necessary to calculate the head losses which depend on the resistance flow friction factor in Darcy equation. Computing the resistance friction is based on implicit Colebrook-White equation which is considered as the standard for the friction calculation, but it needs high computational cost, therefore; several explicit approximation methods are used for solving an implicit equation to overcome this issue. It follows that the relative error is used to determine the most accurate method among the approximated used ones. Steel, cast iron and polyethylene pipe materials investigated with practical diameters ranged from 0.1m to 2.5m and velocities between 0.6m/s to 3m/s. In short, the results obtained show that the suitable method for some cases may not be accurate for other cases. For example, when using steel pipe materials, Zigrang and Silvester's method has revealed as the most precise in terms of low velocities 0.6 m/s to 1.3m/s. Comparatively, Halland method showed a less relative error with the gradual increase in velocity. Accordingly, the simulation results of this study might be employed by the hydraulic engineers, so they can take advantage to decide which is the most applicable method according to their practical pipe system expectations.

Keywords: Colebrook–White, explicit equation, friction factor, hydraulic resistance, implicit equation, Reynolds numbers

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Husain Rajib, T. H. Sheikh, D. G. Jewel

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Background: Amblyopia is a frequent cause of monocular blindness in children. It can be unilateral or bilateral reduction of best corrected visual acuity associated with decrement in visual processing, accomodation, motility, spatial perception or spatial projection. Anisometropia is an important risk factor for amblyopia that develops when unequal refractive error causes the image to be blurred in the critical developmental period and central inhibition of the visual signal originating from the affected eye associated with significant visual problems including anisokonia, strabismus, and reduced stereopsis. Methods: It is a prospective hospital based study of newly diagnosed of amblyopia seen at the pediatric clinic of Chittagong Eye Infirmary & Training Complex. There were 50 anisometropic amblyopia subjects were examined & questionnaire was piloted. Included were all patients diagnosed with refractive amblyopia between 3 to 13 years, without previous amblyopia treatment, and whose parents were interested to participate in the study. Patients diagnosed with strabismic amblyopia were excluded. Patients were first corrected with the best correction for a month. When the VA in the amblyopic eye did not improve over month, then occlusion treatment was started. Occlusion was done daily for 6-8 hours (full time) together with vision therapy. The occlusion was carried out for 3 months. Results: In this study about 8% subjects had anisometropia from myopia, 18% from hyperopia, 74% from astigmatism. The initial mean visual acuity was 0.74 ± 0.39 Log MAR and after intervention of amblyopia therapy with active vision therapy mean visual acuity was 0.34 ± 0.26 Log MAR. About 94% of subjects were improving at least two lines. The depth of amblyopia associated with type of anisometropic refractive error and magnitude of Anisometropia (p<0.005). By doing this study 10% mild amblyopia, 64% moderate and 26% severe amblyopia were found. Binocular function also decreases with magnitude of Anisometropia. Conclusion: Anisometropic amblyopia is a most important factor in pediatric age group because it can lead to visual impairment. Occlusion therapy with at least one instructed hour of active visual activity practiced out of school hours was effective in anisometropic amblyopes who were diagnosed at the age of 8 years and older, and the patients complied well with the treatment.

Keywords: refractive error, anisometropia, amblyopia, strabismic amblyopia

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Authors: Lukasz Grabowski, Tytus Tulwin, Michal Geca, P. Karpinski

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This paper presents the radial aircraft engine model which has been created in AVL Boost software. This model is a one-dimensional physical model of the engine, which enables us to investigate the impact of an ignition system design on engine performance (power, torque, fuel consumption). In addition, this model allows research under variable environmental conditions to reflect varied flight conditions (altitude, humidity, cruising speed). Before the simulation research the identifying parameters and validating of model were studied. In order to verify the feasibility to take off power of gasoline radial aircraft engine model, some validation study was carried out. The first stage of the identification was completed with reference to the technical documentation provided by manufacturer of engine and the experiments on the test stand of the real engine. The second stage involved a comparison of simulation results with the results of the engine stand tests performed on a WSK ’PZL-Kalisz’. The engine was loaded by a propeller in a special test bench. Identifying the model parameters referred to a comparison of the test results to the simulation in terms of: pressure behind the throttles, pressure in the inlet pipe, and time course for pressure in the first inlet pipe, power, and specific fuel consumption. Accordingly, the required coefficients and error of simulation calculation relative to the real-object experiments were determined. Obtained the time course for pressure and its value is compatible with the experimental results. Additionally the engine power and specific fuel consumption tends to be significantly compatible with the bench tests. The mapping error does not exceed 1.5%, which verifies positively the model of combustion and allows us to predict engine performance if the process of combustion will be modified. The next conducted tests verified completely model. The maximum mapping error for the pressure behind the throttles and the inlet pipe pressure is 4 %, which proves the model of the inlet duct in the engine with the charging compressor to be correct.

Keywords: 1D-model, aircraft engine, performance, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Alaa El-Din Rezk

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In Egypt, management of crops still away from what is being used today by utilizing the advances of mechanical design capabilities, sensing and electronics technology. These technologies have been introduced in many places and recorm, for Straight Path, Curved Path, Sine Wave ded high accuracy in different field operations. So, an autonomous robotic platform based on machine vision has been developed and constructed to be implemented in Egyptian conditions as self-propelled mobile vehicle for carrying tools for inter/intra-row crop management based on different control modules. The experiments were carried out at plant protection research institute (PPRI) during 2014-2015 to optimize the accuracy of agricultural robotic platform control using machine vision in term of the autonomous navigation and performance of the robot’s guidance system. Results showed that the robotic platform' guidance system with machine vision was able to adequately distinguish the path and resisted image noise and did better than human operators for getting less lateral offset error. The average error of autonomous was 2.75, 19.33, 21.22, 34.18, and 16.69 mm. while the human operator was 32.70, 4.85, 7.85, 38.35 and 14.75 mm Path, Offset Discontinuity and Angle Discontinuity respectively.

Keywords: autonomous robotic, Hough transform, image processing, machine vision

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Authors: Ankur Sachan

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The ability to make quick yet intelligent and value-added decisions to develop new fields has always been of great significance. In situations where the capital expenses and subsurface risk are high, carefully analyzing the inherent uncertainties in the reservoir and how they impact the predicted hydrocarbon accumulation and production becomes a daunting task. The problem is compounded in offshore environments, especially in the presence of heavy oils and disconnected sands where the margin for error is small. Uncertainty refers to the degree to which the data set may be in error or stray from the predicted values. To understand and quantify the uncertainties in reservoir model is important when estimating the reserves. Uncertainty parameters can be geophysical, geological, petrophysical etc. Identification of these parameters is necessary to carry out the uncertainty analysis. With so many uncertainties working at different scales, it becomes essential to have a consistent and efficient way of incorporating them into our analysis. Ranking the uncertainties based on their impact on reserves helps to prioritize/ guide future data gathering and uncertainty reduction efforts. Assigning probabilistic ranges to key uncertainties also enables the computation of probabilistic reserves. With this in mind, this paper, with the help the uncertainty and optimization process in petrel RE shows how the most influential uncertainties can be determined efficiently and how much impact so they have on the reservoir model thus helping in determining a cost effective and accurate model of the reservoir.

Keywords: uncertainty, reservoir model, parameters, optimization analysis

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Authors: Othman Maklouf, Abdunnaser Tresh

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GPS and inertial navigation system (INS) have complementary qualities that make them ideal use for sensor fusion. The limitations of GPS include occasional high noise content, outages when satellite signals are blocked, interference and low bandwidth. The strengths of GPS include its long-term stability and its capacity to function as a stand-alone navigation system. In contrast, INS is not subject to interference or outages, have high bandwidth and good short-term noise characteristics, but have long-term drift errors and require external information for initialization. A combined system of GPS and INS subsystems can exhibit the robustness, higher bandwidth and better noise characteristics of the inertial system with the long-term stability of GPS. The most common estimation algorithm used in integrated INS/GPS is the Kalman Filter (KF). KF is able to take advantages of these characteristics to provide a common integrated navigation implementation with performance superior to that of either subsystem (GPS or INS). This paper presents a simplified KF algorithm for land vehicle navigation application. In this integration scheme, the GPS derived positions and velocities are used as the update measurements for the INS derived PVA. The KF error state vector in this case includes the navigation parameters as well as the accelerometer and gyroscope error states.

Keywords: GPS, INS, Kalman filter, inertial navigation system

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Authors: Muhammad A. Alsubaie

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An iterative learning control framework designed in state feedback structure suffers a lack in investigating load disturbance considerations. The presented work discusses the controller previously designed, highlights the disturbance problem, finds new conditions using singular value principle to assure safe operation conditions with error convergence and reference tracking under the influence of load disturbance. It is known that periodic disturbances can be represented by a delay model in a positive feedback loop acting on the system input. This model can be manipulated by isolating the delay model and finding a controller for the overall system around the delay model to remedy the periodic disturbances using the small signal theorem. The overall system is the base for control design and load disturbance investigation. The major finding of this work is the load disturbance condition found which clearly sets safe operation condition under the influence of load disturbances such that the error tends to nearly zero as the system keeps operating trial after trial.

Keywords: iterative learning control, singular values, state feedback, load disturbance

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Authors: Vibha Devi, Shabina Khanam

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Hemp (Cannabis sativa) possesses a rich content of ω-6 linoleic and ω-3 linolenic essential fatty acid in the ratio of 3:1, which is a rare and most desired ratio that enhances the quality of hemp oil. These components are beneficial for the development of cell and body growth, strengthen the immune system, possess anti-inflammatory action, lowering the risk of heart problem owing to its anti-clotting property and a remedy for arthritis and various disorders. The present study employs supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) approach on hemp seed at various conditions of parameters; temperature (40 - 80) °C, pressure (200 - 350) bar, flow rate (5 - 15) g/min, particle size (0.430 - 1.015) mm and amount of co-solvent (0 - 10) % of solvent flow rate through central composite design (CCD). CCD suggested 32 sets of experiments, which was carried out. As SFE process includes large number of variables, the present study recommends the application of resampling techniques for cross-validation of the obtained data. Cross-validation refits the model on each data to achieve the information regarding the error, variability, deviation etc. Bootstrap and jackknife are the most popular resampling techniques, which create a large number of data through resampling from the original dataset and analyze these data to check the validity of the obtained data. Jackknife resampling is based on the eliminating one observation from the original sample of size N without replacement. For jackknife resampling, the sample size is 31 (eliminating one observation), which is repeated by 32 times. Bootstrap is the frequently used statistical approach for estimating the sampling distribution of an estimator by resampling with replacement from the original sample. For bootstrap resampling, the sample size is 32, which was repeated by 100 times. Estimands for these resampling techniques are considered as mean, standard deviation, variation coefficient and standard error of the mean. For ω-6 linoleic acid concentration, mean value was approx. 58.5 for both resampling methods, which is the average (central value) of the sample mean of all data points. Similarly, for ω-3 linoleic acid concentration, mean was observed as 22.5 through both resampling. Variance exhibits the spread out of the data from its mean. Greater value of variance exhibits the large range of output data, which is 18 for ω-6 linoleic acid (ranging from 48.85 to 63.66 %) and 6 for ω-3 linoleic acid (ranging from 16.71 to 26.2 %). Further, low value of standard deviation (approx. 1 %), low standard error of the mean (< 0.8) and low variance coefficient (< 0.2) reflect the accuracy of the sample for prediction. All the estimator value of variance coefficients, standard deviation and standard error of the mean are found within the 95 % of confidence interval.

Keywords: resampling, supercritical fluid extraction, hemp oil, cross-validation

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Authors: Mandar Ghodekar, Sharad Jadhav, Sangram Jadhav

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Speed control of rotor during startup and under varying load conditions is one of the most difficult tasks of gas turbine operation. In this paper, power plant gas turbine (GE9001E) is considered for this purpose and fuzzy and fuzzy-PI rotor speed controllers are designed. The goal of the presented controllers is to keep the turbine rotor speed within predefined limits during startup condition as well as during operating condition. The fuzzy controller and fuzzy-PI controller are designed using Takagi-Sugeno method and Mamdani method, respectively. In applying the fuzzy-PI control to a gas-turbine plant, the tuning parameters (Kp and Ki) are modified online by fuzzy logic approach. Error and rate of change of error are inputs and change in fuel flow is output for both the controllers. Hence, rotor speed of gas turbine is controlled by modifying the fuel ƒflow. The identified linear ARX model of gas turbine is considered while designing the controllers. For simulations, demand power is taken as disturbance input. It is assumed that inlet guide vane (IGV) position is fixed. In addition, the constraint on the fuel flow is taken into account. The performance of the presented controllers is compared with each other as well as with H∞ robust and MPC controllers for the same operating conditions in simulations.

Keywords: gas turbine, fuzzy controller, fuzzy PI controller, power plant

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Chien-Lin Wang, Cha-Ling Ko, Tainsong Chen

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Pulse Blood pressure (BP) is one of the vital signs, and is an index that helps determining the stability of life. In this respect, some spinal cord injury patients need to take the tilt table test. While doing the test, the posture changes abruptly, and may cause a patient’s BP to change abnormally. This may cause patients to feel discomfort, and even feel as though their life is threatened. Therefore, if a continuous non-invasive BP assessment system were built, it could help to alert health care professionals in the process of rehabilitation when the BP value is out of range. In our research, BP assessed by the pulse transit time technique was developed. In the system, we use a self-made photoplethysmograph (PPG) sensor and filter circuit to detect two PPG signals and to calculate the time difference. The BP can immediately be assessed by the trend line. According to the results of this study, the relationship between the systolic BP and PTT has a highly negative linear correlation (R2=0.8). Further, we used the trend line to assess the value of the BP and compared it to a commercial sphygmomanometer (Omron MX3); the error rate of the system was found to be in the range of ±10%, which is within the permissible error range of a commercial sphygmomanometer. The continue blood pressure measurement from pulse transit time technique may have potential to become a convenience method for clinical rehabilitation.

Keywords: continous blood pressure measurement, PPG, time transit time, transit velocity

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Authors: Sanja Jovanovic, Aleksandar Simic, Ognjan Skrobic, Dragan Masulovic, Aleksandra Djuric-Stefanovic

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Introduction: Achalasia is an idiopathic primary esophageal motility disorder characterized by esophageal peristalsis and impaired swallow-induced relaxation of the lower esophageal sphincter (LES). It is a rare disease that affects both genders with an incidence of 1/100.000 and a prevalence rate of 10/100,000 per year. Objective: Laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM) represents a therapy of choice for patients with achalasia, providing excellent outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the significance of computed tomography (CT) in analyzing achalasia subtypes and timed barium esophagogram (TBE) in evaluation of LHM success, as a part of standardized diagnostic protocol. Method: Fifty-one patients with achalasia, confirmed by manometric studies, in addition to standardized diagnostic methods, underwent CT and TBE. CT was done with multiplanar reconstruction, measuring the wall thickness above the esophago-gastric junction in the axial plane. TBE was performed preoperatively and two days postoperatively swallowing low-density barium sulfate, and plane upright frontal films were performed 1, 2 and 5 minutes after the ingestion. In all patients, LHM was done, and pre and postoperative height and weight of the barium column were compared. Results: According to CT findings we divided patients into 3 subtypes of achalasia according to wall thickness: < 4mm as subtype one, between 4 - 9mm as II, and > 10 mm as subtype 3. Correlation of manometric results, as a reference values, and CT findings indicated CT sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 70 % in establishing subtypes of achalasia. The preoperative values of TBE at 1, 2 and 5 minutes were: median barium column height 17.4 ± 7.4, 15.9 ± 6.2 and 13.9 ± 6.2 cm; median column width 5 ± 1.5, 4.7 ± 1.6 and 4.5 ± 1.8 cm respectively. LHM significantly reduced these values (height 7 ± 4.6, 5.8 ± 4.2, 3.7 ± 3.4 cm; width 2.9 ± 1.3, 2.6 ± 1.3 and 2.4 ± 1.4 cm), indicating the quantitative estimates of emptying as excellent (p value < 0.01). Conclusion: CT has high sensitivity and specificity in evaluation of achalasia subtypes, and can be introduced as an additional method for standardized evaluation of these patients. The quantitative assessment of TBE based on measurements of the barium column is an accurate and beneficial method, which adequately estimates esophageal emptying success of LHM.

Keywords: achalasia, computed tomography, esophagography, myotomy

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Authors: Sofiya Rao, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction continues to be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in quantifying the aerosol climate forcing. The uncertainty is increasing from global to regional scale. This problem remains unresolved due to the large discrepancy in the representation of cloud processes in the climate models. Most of the studies on aerosol-cloud-climate interaction and aerosol-cloud-precipitation over Indian Ocean (like INDOEX, CAIPEEX campaign etc.) are restricted to either particular to one season or particular to one region. Here we developed a theoretical framework to quantify aerosol indirect radiative forcing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products of 15 years (2000-2015) period over the Indian Ocean. This framework relies on the observationally constrained estimate of the aerosol-induced change in cloud albedo. We partitioned the change in cloud albedo into the change in Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Effective Radius of Clouds (Reff) in response to an aerosol optical depth (AOD). Cloud albedo response to an increase in AOD is most sensitive in the range of LWP between 120-300 gm/m² for a range of Reff varying from 8-24 micrometer, which means aerosols are most sensitive to this range of LWP and Reff. Using this framework, aerosol forcing during a transition from indirect to semi-direct effect is also calculated. The outcome of this analysis shows best results over the Arabian Sea in comparison with the Bay of Bengal and the South Indian Ocean because of heterogeneity in aerosol spices over the Arabian Sea. Over the Arabian Sea during Winter Season the more absorbing aerosols are dominating, during Pre-monsoon dust (coarse mode aerosol particles) are more dominating. In winter and pre-monsoon majorly the aerosol forcing is more dominating while during monsoon and post-monsoon season meteorological forcing is more dominating. Over the South Indian Ocean, more or less same types of aerosol (Sea salt) are present. Over the Arabian Sea the Aerosol Indirect Radiative forcing are varying from -5 ± 4.5 W/m² for winter season while in other seasons it is reducing. The results provide observationally constrained estimates of aerosol indirect forcing in the Indian Ocean which can be helpful in evaluating the climate model performance in the context of such complex interactions.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction, aerosol-cloud-climate interaction, indirect radiative forcing, climate model

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Authors: Christina Adly, Meena Abdelmeseeh, Tamer Basha

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This paper proposes a system for hand movement recognition using multichannel surface EMG(sEMG) signals obtained from 40 subjects using 40 different exercises, which are available on the Ninapro(Non-Invasive Adaptive Prosthetics) database. First, we applied processing methods to the raw sEMG signals to convert them to their amplitudes. Second, we used deep learning methods to solve our problem by passing the preprocessed signals to Fully connected neural networks(FCNN) and recurrent neural networks(RNN) with Long Short Term Memory(LSTM). Using intrasubject evaluation, The accuracy using the FCNN is 72%, with a processing time for training around 76 minutes, and for RNN's accuracy is 79.9%, with 8 minutes and 22 seconds processing time. Third, we applied some postprocessing methods to improve the accuracy, like majority voting(MV) and Movement Error Rate(MER). The accuracy after applying MV is 75% and 86% for FCNN and RNN, respectively. The MER value has an inverse relationship with the prediction delay while varying the window length for measuring the MV. The different part uses the RNN with the intersubject evaluation. The experimental results showed that to get a good accuracy for testing with reasonable processing time, we should use around 20 subjects.

Keywords: hand movement recognition, recurrent neural network, movement error rate, intrasubject evaluation, intersubject evaluation

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Sahar Jahani, Meryem Ayse Yucel, David Boas, Seyed Kamaledin Setarehdan

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Near-infrared spectroscopy allows monitoring of oxy- and deoxy-hemoglobin concentration changes associated with hemodynamic response function (HRF). HRF is usually affected by natural physiological hemodynamic (systemic interferences) which occur in all body tissues including brain tissue. This makes HRF extraction a very challenging task. In this study, we used Kalman filter based on a general linear model (GLM) of brain activity to define the proportion of systemic interference in the brain hemodynamic. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated in terms of the peak to peak error (Ep), mean square error (MSE), and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R2) criteria between the estimated and the simulated hemodynamic responses. This technique also has the ability of real time estimation of single trial functional activations as it was applied to classify finger tapping versus resting state. The average real-time classification accuracy of 74% over 11 subjects demonstrates the feasibility of developing an effective functional near infrared spectroscopy for brain computer interface purposes (fNIRS-BCI).

Keywords: hemodynamic response function, functional near-infrared spectroscopy, adaptive filter, Kalman filter

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Authors: U. Ali Rahoma, Nabil Esawy, Fawzia Ibrahim Moursy, A. H. Hassan, Samy A. Khalil, Ashraf S. Khamees

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The design of any solar energy conversion system requires the knowledge of solar radiation data obtained over a long period. Satellite data has been widely used to estimate solar energy where no ground observation of solar radiation is available, yet there are limitations on the temporal coverage of satellite data. Reanalysis is a “retrospective analysis” of the atmosphere parameters generated by assimilating observation data from various sources, including ground observation, satellites, ships, and aircraft observation with the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, to develop an exhaustive record of weather and climate parameters. The evaluation of the performance of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa against high-quality surface measured data was performed using statistical analysis. The estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) distribution over six different selected locations in North Africa during ten years from the period time 2011 to 2020. The root means square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of reanalysis data of solar radiation range from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.0145 to 0.198, and 0.055 to 0.178, respectively. The seasonal statistical analysis was performed to study seasonal variation of performance of datasets, which reveals the significant variation of errors in different seasons—the performance of the dataset changes by changing the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison. The monthly mean values of data show better performance, but the accuracy of data is compromised. The solar radiation data of ERA-5 is used for preliminary solar resource assessment and power estimation. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% for the different selected sites in North Africa in the present research. The goal of this research is to give a good representation for global solar radiation to help in solar energy application in all fields, and this can be done by using gridded data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF and producing a new model to give a good result.

Keywords: solar energy, solar radiation, ERA-5, potential energy

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Authors: Jared Abuga, Wesley Too

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Medical error is the third leading cause of death in US, with approximately 98,000 deaths occurring every year as a result of medical errors. The world financial burden of medication errors is roughly USD 42 billion. Medication errors may lead to at least one death daily and injure roughly 1.3 million people every year. Medical error reporting is essential in creating a culture of accountability in our healthcare system. Studies have shown that attitudes and practice of healthcare workers in reporting medical errors showed that the major factors in under-reporting of errors included work stress and fear of medico-legal consequences due to the disclosure of error. Further, the majority believed that increase in reporting medical errors would contribute to a better system. Most hospitals depend on nurses to discover medication errors because they are considered to be the sources of these errors, as contributors or mere observers, consequently, the nurse’s perception of medication errors and what needs to be done is a vital feature to reducing incidences of medication errors. We sought to explore knowledge among nurses on medical errors and factors affecting or hindering reporting of medical errors among nurses working at the emergency unit, KNH. Critical care nurses are faced with many barriers to completing incident reports on medication errors. One of these barriers which contribute to underreporting is a lack of education and/or knowledge regarding medication errors and the reporting process. This study, therefore, sought to determine the availability and the use of reporting systems for medical errors in critical care unity. It also sought to establish nurses’ perception regarding medical errors and reporting and document factors facilitating timely identification and reporting of medical errors in critical care settings. Methods: The study used cross-section study design to collect data from 76 critical care nurses from Kenyatta Teaching & Research National Referral Hospital, Kenya. Data analysis and results is ongoing. By October 2022, we will have analysis, results, discussions, and recommendations of the study for purposes of the conference in 2023

Keywords: errors, medical, kenya, nurses, safety

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

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In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, gaussian mixture models, learning motion patterns, tracked robots for urban search and rescue

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Authors: Hamidreza Ghazvinian, Khosro Ghazvinian, Touba Khodaiean

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The importance of evaporation estimation in water resources and agricultural studies is undeniable. Pan evaporation are used as an indicator to determine the evaporation of lakes and reservoirs around the world due to the ease of interpreting its data. In this research, intelligent models were investigated in estimating pan evaporation on a daily basis. Shahroud and Mayamey were considered as the studied cities. These two cities are located in Semnan province in Iran. The mentioned cities have dry weather conditions that are susceptible to high evaporation potential. Meteorological data of 11 years of synoptic stations of Shahrood and Mayamey cities were used. The intelligent models used in this study are Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and M5 tree models. Meteorological parameters of minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmax, Tmin), wind speed (WS), sunshine hours (SH), air pressure (PA), relative humidity (RH) as selected input data and evaporation data from pan (EP) to The output data was considered. 70% of data is used at the education level, and 30 % of the data is used at the test level. Models used with explanation coefficient evaluation (R2) Root of Mean Squares Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results for the two Shahroud and Mayamey stations showed that the above three models' operations are rather appropriate.

Keywords: pan evaporation, intelligent methods, shahroud, mayamey

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Authors: Asadullah I. Qazi, Mansoor Ahsan, Zahir Ashraf, Uzair Ahmad

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System identification of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), to acquire its mathematical model, is a significant step in the process of aircraft flight automation. The need for reliable mathematical model is an established requirement for autopilot design, flight simulator development, aircraft performance appraisal, analysis of aircraft modifications, preflight testing of prototype aircraft and investigation of fatigue life and stress distribution etc.  This research is aimed at system identification of a fixed wing UAV by means of specifically designed flight experiment. The purposely designed flight maneuvers were performed on the UAV and aircraft states were recorded during these flights. Acquired data were preprocessed for noise filtering and bias removal followed by parameter estimation of longitudinal dynamics transfer functions using MATLAB system identification toolbox. Black box identification based transfer function models, in response to elevator and throttle inputs, were estimated using least square error   technique. The identification results show a high confidence level and goodness of fit between the estimated model and actual aircraft response.

Keywords: fixed wing UAV, system identification, black box modeling, longitudinal dynamics, least square error

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Authors: A. Fettahoglu

Abstract:

Theory of viscoelasticity is used by many researchers to represent behavior of many materials such as pavements on roads or bridges. Several researches used analytical methods and rheology to predict the material behaviors of simple models. Today, more complex engineering structures are analyzed using Finite Element Method, in which material behavior is embedded by means of three dimensional viscoelastic material laws. As a result, structures of unordinary geometry and domain like pavements of bridges can be analyzed by means of Finite Element Method and three dimensional viscoelastic equations. In the scope of this study, rheological models embedded in ANSYS, namely, generalized Maxwell elements and Prony series, which are two methods used by ANSYS to represent viscoelastic material behavior, are presented explicitly. Subsequently, a practical problem, which has an analytical solution given in literature, is used to verify the applicability of viscoelasticity tool embedded in ANSYS. Finally, amount of error in the results of ANSYS is compared with the analytical results to indicate the influence of used method and time step size.

Keywords: generalized Maxwell model, finite element method, prony series, time step size, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Ahmed Krobba, Meriem Touzene, Mohamed Debeyche

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The wireless communications system (5G) will provide more diverse applications and higher quality services for users compared to the long-term evolution 4G (LTE). 5G uses a higher carrier frequency, which suffers from information loss in 5G coverage. Most 5G users often cannot obtain high-quality communications due to transmission channel noise and channel complexity. Physical Uplink Control Channel (PUCCH-NR: Physical Uplink Control Channel New Radio) plays a crucial role in 5G NR telecommunication technology, which is mainly used to transmit link control information uplink (UCI: Uplink Control Information. This study based of evaluating the performance of channel physical uplink control PUCCH-NR under low Signal-to-Noise Ratios with various antenna numbers reception. We propose the artificial intelligence approach based on deep neural networks (Deep Learning) to estimate the PUCCH-NR channel in comparison with this approach with different conventional methods such as least-square (LS) and minimum-mean-square-error (MMSE). To evaluate the channel performance we use the block error rate (BLER) as an evaluation criterion of the communication system. The results show that the deep neural networks method gives best performance compared with MMSE and LS

Keywords: 5G network, uplink (Uplink), PUCCH channel, NR-PUCCH channel, deep learning

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Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed

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Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)

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Authors: H. Al-Qassem, L. Cheng, Y. Pan

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In this paper, we establish sharp bounds for oscillatory singular integrals with an arbitrary real polynomial phase P. Our kernels are allowed to be rough both on the unit sphere and in the radial direction. We show that the bounds grow no faster than log (deg(P)), which is optimal and was first obtained by Parissis and Papadimitrakis for kernels without any radial roughness. Our results substantially improve many previously known results. Among key ingredients of our methods are an L¹→L² sharp estimate and using extrapolation.

Keywords: oscillatory singular integral, rough kernel, singular integral, orlicz spaces, block spaces, extrapolation, L^{p} boundedness

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Authors: Aprajeeta Jha, Punyadarshini P. Tripathy

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Drying is one of the most critical unit operations for prolonging the shelf-life of food grains in order to ensure global food security. Photovoltaic integrated solar dryers can be a sustainable solution for replacing energy intensive thermal dryers as it is capable of drying in off-sunshine hours and provide better control over drying conditions. But, performance and reliability of PV based solar dryers depend hugely on climatic conditions thereby, drastically affecting process parameters. Therefore, to ensure quality and prolonged shelf-life of paddy, optimization of process parameters for solar dryers is critical. Proper moisture distribution within the grains is most detrimental factor to enhance the shelf-life of paddy therefore; modeling of mass transport can help in providing a better insight of moisture migration. Hence, present work aims at optimizing the process parameters and to develop a 3D finite element model (FEM) for predicting moisture profile in paddy during solar drying. Optimization of process parameters (power level, air velocity and moisture content) was done using box Behnken model in Design expert software. Furthermore, COMSOL Multiphysics was employed to develop a 3D finite element model for predicting moisture profile. Optimized model for drying paddy was found to be 700W, 2.75 m/s and 13% wb with optimum temperature, milling yield and drying time of 42˚C, 62%, 86 min respectively, having desirability of 0.905. Furthermore, 3D finite element model (FEM) for predicting moisture migration in single kernel for every time step has been developed. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE) and standard error (SE) were found to be 0.003, 0.0531 and 0.0007, respectively, indicating close agreement of model with experimental results. Above optimized conditions can be successfully used to dry paddy in PV integrated solar dryer in order to attain maximum uniformity, quality and yield of product to achieve global food and energy security

Keywords: finite element modeling, hybrid solar drying, mass transport, paddy, process optimization

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: Assem M. F. Sallam, Ah. El-S. Makled

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This paper presents a study on the trajectory of a two stage launch vehicle. The study includes dynamic responses of motion parameters as well as the variation of angles affecting the orientation of the launch vehicle (LV). LV dynamic characteristics including state vector variation with corresponding altitude and velocity for the different LV stages separation, as well as the angle of attack and flight path angles are also discussed. A flight trajectory study for the drop zone of first stage and the jettisoning of fairing are introduced in the mathematical modeling to study their effect. To increase the accuracy of the LV model, atmospheric model is used taking into consideration geographical location and the values of solar flux related to the date and time of launch, accurate atmospheric model leads to enhancement of the calculation of Mach number, which affects the drag force over the LV. The mathematical model is implemented on MATLAB based software (Simulink). The real available experimental data are compared with results obtained from the theoretical computation model. The comparison shows good agreement, which proves the validity of the developed simulation model; the maximum error noticed was generally less than 10%, which is a result that can lead to future works and enhancement to decrease this level of error.

Keywords: launch vehicle modeling, launch vehicle trajectory, mathematical modeling, Matlab- Simulink

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Authors: M. G. M. Khan, V. D. Prasad, D. K. Rao

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In this manuscript, we discuss the problem of determining the optimum stratification of a study (or main) variable based on the auxiliary variable that follows a uniform distribution. If the stratification of survey variable is made using the auxiliary variable it may lead to substantial gains in precision of the estimates. This problem is formulated as a Nonlinear Programming Problem (NLPP), which turn out to multistage decision problem and is solved using dynamic programming technique.

Keywords: auxiliary variable, dynamic programming technique, nonlinear programming problem, optimum stratification, uniform distribution

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