Search results for: customer demand

Authors: Aritra Majumdar

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While organizations strive to expand their new customer base, retaining existing relationships is a key aspect of improving overall profitability and also showcasing how successful an organization is in holding on to its customers. It is an experimentally proven fact that the lion’s share of profit always comes from existing customers. Hence seamless management of renewal journeys across different channels goes a long way in improving trust in the brand. From a quality assurance standpoint, time travel testing provides an approach to both business and technology teams to enhance the customer experience when they look to extend their partnership with the organization for a defined phase of time. This whitepaper will focus on key pillars of time travel testing: time travel planning, time travel data preparation, and enterprise automation. Along with that, it will call out some of the best practices and common accelerator implementation ideas which are generic across verticals like healthcare, insurance, etc. In this abstract document, a high-level snapshot of these pillars will be provided. Time Travel Planning: The first step of setting up a time travel testing roadmap is appropriate planning. Planning will include identifying the impacted systems that need to be time traveled backward or forward depending on the business requirement, aligning time travel with other releases, frequency of time travel testing, preparedness for handling renewal issues in production after time travel testing is done and most importantly planning for test automation testing during time travel testing. Time Travel Data Preparation: One of the most complex areas in time travel testing is test data coverage. Aligning test data to cover required customer segments and narrowing it down to multiple offer sequencing based on defined parameters are keys for successful time travel testing. Another aspect is the availability of sufficient data for similar combinations to support activities like defect retesting, regression testing, post-production testing (if required), etc. This section will talk about the necessary steps for suitable data coverage and sufficient data availability from a time travel testing perspective. Enterprise Automation: Time travel testing is never restricted to a single application. The workflow needs to be validated in the downstream applications to ensure consistency across the board. Along with that, the correctness of offers across different digital channels needs to be checked in order to ensure a smooth customer experience. This section will talk about the focus areas of enterprise automation and how automation testing can be leveraged to improve the overall quality without compromising on the project schedule. Along with the above-mentioned items, the white paper will elaborate on the best practices that need to be followed during time travel testing and some ideas pertaining to accelerator implementation. To sum it up, this paper will be written based on the real-time experience author had on time travel testing. While actual customer names and program-related details will not be disclosed, the paper will highlight the key learnings which will help other teams to implement time travel testing successfully.

Keywords: time travel planning, time travel data preparation, enterprise automation, best practices, accelerator implementation ideas

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Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

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As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

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Authors: Y. Ghiassi-Farrokhfal

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The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing worldwide. Replacing gas fueled cars with EVs reduces carbon emission. However, the extensive energy consumption of EVs stresses the energy systems, requiring non-green sources of energy (such as gas turbines) to compensate for the new energy demand caused by EVs in the energy systems. To make EVs even a greener solution for the future energy systems, new EV charging stations are equipped with solar PV panels and batteries. This will help serve the energy demand of EVs through the green energy of solar panels. To ensure energy availability, solar panels are combined with batteries. The energy surplus at any point is stored in batteries and is used when there is not enough solar energy to serve the demand. While EV charging stations equipped with solar panels and batteries are green and ecologically optimal, they might not be financially viable solutions, due to battery prices. To make the system viable, we should size the battery economically and operate the system optimally. This is, in general, a challenging problem because of the stochastic nature of the EV arrivals at the charging station, the available solar energy, and the battery operating system. In this work, we provide a mathematical model for this problem and we compute the return on investment (ROI) of such a system, which is designed to be ecologically and financially optimal. We also quantify the minimum required investment in terms of battery and solar panels along with the operating strategy to ensure that a charging station has enough energy to serve its EV demand at any time.

Keywords: solar energy, battery storage, electric vehicle, charging stations

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Endang Jati Mat Sahid

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For the past few decades, the Malaysian economy has expanded at an impressive pace, whilst, the Malaysian population has registered a relatively high growth rate. These factors had driven the growth of final energy demand. The ballooning energy demand coupled with the country’s limited indigenous energy resources have resulted in an increased of the country’s net import. Therefore, acknowledging the precarious position of the country’s energy self-sufficiency, this study has identified three main concerns regarding energy security, namely; over-dependence on fossil fuel, increasing energy import dependency, and increasing energy consumption per capita. This paper discusses the recent energy demand and supply trends, highlights the policies that are affecting energy security in Malaysia and suggests strategic options towards achieving energy security. The paper suggested that diversifying energy sources, reducing carbon content of energy, efficient utilization of energy and facilitating low-carbon industries could further enhance the effectiveness of the measures as the introduction of policies and initiatives will be more holistic.

Keywords: electricity, energy policy, energy security, Malaysia

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Authors: Yangrae Cho, Jinseok Kim, Yongtae Park

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Mobile app service ecosystem has been abruptly emerged, explosively grown, and dynamically transformed. In contrast with product markets in which product sales directly cause increment in firm’s income, customer’s usage is less visible but more valuable in service market. Especially, the market situation with cutthroat competition in mobile app store makes securing and keeping of users as vital. Although a few service firms try to manage their apps’ usage patterns by fitting on S-curve or applying other forecasting techniques, the time series approaches based on past sequential data are subject to fundamental limitation in the market where customer’s attention is being moved unpredictably and dynamically. We therefore propose a new conceptual approach for detecting usage pattern of mobile app service with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which is based on the dual stochastic structure and mainly used to clarify unpredictable and dynamic sequential patterns in voice recognition or stock forecasting. Our approach could be practically utilized for app service firms to manage their services’ lifecycles and academically expanded to other markets.

Keywords: mobile app service, usage pattern, Hidden Markov Model, pattern detection

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Authors: Masoud Rabbani, Majede Smizadeh, Hamed Farrokhi-Asl

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We study jointly determining prices and production in a multiple period horizon under a general non-stationary stochastic demand with continuous prices. In some periods we need to increase capacity of production to satisfy demand. This paper presents a model to aid multi-period production capacity planning by quantifying the trade-off between product quality and production cost. The product quality is estimated as the statistical variation from the target performances obtained from the output tolerances of the production machines that manufacture the components. We consider different tolerance for different machines that use to increase capacity. The production cost is estimated as the total cost of owning and operating a production facility during the planning horizon.so capacity planning has cost that impact on price. Pricing products often turns out to be difficult to measure them because customers have a reservation price to pay that impact on price and demand. We decide to determine prices and production for periods after enhance capacity and consider reservation price to determine price. First we use an algorithm base on fuzzy set of the optimal objective function values to determine capacity planning by determine maximize interval from upper bound in minimum objectives and define weight for objectives. Then we try to determine inventory and pricing policies. We can use a lemma to solve a problem in MATLAB and find exact answer.

Keywords: price policy, inventory policy, capacity planning, product quality, epsilon -constraint

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Authors: Vanessa Kummer, Maik Meusel

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Real estate demand estimates are typically derived from transaction data. However, in regions with excess demand, transactions are driven by supply and therefore do not indicate what people are actually looking for. To estimate the demand for housing in Switzerland, search subscriptions from all important Swiss real estate platforms are used. These data do, however, suffer from missing information—for example, many users do not specify how many rooms they would like or what price they would be willing to pay. In economic analyses, it is often the case that only complete data is used. Usually, however, the proportion of complete data is rather small which leads to most information being neglected. Also, the data might have a strong distortion if it is complete. In addition, the reason that data is missing might itself also contain information, which is however ignored with that approach. An interesting issue is, therefore, if for economic analyses such as the one at hand, there is an added value by using the whole data set with the imputed missing values compared to using the usually small percentage of complete data (baseline). Also, it is interesting to see how different algorithms affect that result. The imputation of the missing data is done using unsupervised learning. Out of the numerous unsupervised learning approaches, the most common ones, such as clustering, principal component analysis, or neural networks techniques are applied. By training the model iteratively on the imputed data and, thereby, including the information of all data into the model, the distortion of the first training set—the complete data—vanishes. In a next step, the performances of the algorithms are measured. This is done by randomly creating missing values in subsets of the data, estimating those values with the relevant algorithms and several parameter combinations, and comparing the estimates to the actual data. After having found the optimal parameter set for each algorithm, the missing values are being imputed. Using the resulting data sets, the next step is to estimate the willingness to pay for real estate. This is done by fitting price distributions for real estate properties with certain characteristics, such as the region or the number of rooms. Based on these distributions, survival functions are computed to obtain the functional relationship between characteristics and selling probabilities. Comparing the survival functions shows that estimates which are based on imputed data sets do not differ significantly from each other; however, the demand estimate that is derived from the baseline data does. This indicates that the baseline data set does not include all available information and is therefore not representative for the entire sample. Also, demand estimates derived from the whole data set are much more accurate than the baseline estimation. Thus, in order to obtain optimal results, it is important to make use of all available data, even though it involves additional procedures such as data imputation.

Keywords: demand estimate, missing-data imputation, real estate, unsupervised learning

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Authors: Karthick Prasad Gunasekaran, B. Chase Babrich, Saurabh Shirodkar, Hee Hwang

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Construction preparation is crucial for the success of a construction project. By involving project participants early in the construction phase, project managers can plan ahead and resolve issues early, resulting in project success and satisfaction. This study uses quantitative data from construction management projects to determine the relationship between the pre-construction phase, construction schedule, and customer satisfaction. This study examined a total of 65 construction projects and 93 clients per job to (a) identify the relationship between the pre-construction phase and program reduction and (b) the pre-construction phase and customer retention. Based on a quantitative analysis, this study found a negative correlation between pre-construction status and project schedule in 65 construction projects. This finding means that the more preparatory work done on a particular project, the shorter the total construction time. The Net Promoter Score of 93 clients from 65 projects was then used to determine the relationship between construction preparation and client satisfaction. The pre-construction status and the projects were further analyzed, and a positive correlation between them was found. This shows that customers are happier with projects with a higher ready-to-build ratio than projects with less ready-to-build.

Keywords: NLP, BERT, LLM, deep learning, classification

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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World GHG emissions should be reduced 50% by 2050 compared with 1990 level. CO2 emission reduction from steel sector, an energy-intensive sector, is essential. To estimate CO2 emission from steel sector in the world, estimation of steel production is required. The world steel production by process is estimated during the period of 2005-2050. The world is divided into aggregated 35 regions. For a steel making process, two kinds of processes are considered; basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF). Steel production by process in each region is decided based on a current production capacity, supply-demand balance of steel and scrap, technology innovation of steel making, steel consumption projection, and goods trade. World steel production under moderate countermeasure scenario in 2050 increases by 1.3 times compared with that in 2012. When domestic scrap recycling is promoted, steel production in developed regions increases about 1.5 times. The share in developed regions changes from 34 %(2012) to about 40%(2050). This is because developed regions are main suppliers of scrap. 48-57% of world steel production is produced by EAF. Under the scenario which thinks much of supply-demand balance of steel, steel production in developing regions increases is 1.4 times and is larger than that in developed regions. The share in developing regions, however, is not so different from current level. The increase in steel production by EAF is the largest under the scenario in which supply-demand balance of steel is an important factor. The share reaches 65%.

Keywords: global steel production, production distribution scenario, steel making process, supply-demand balance

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Authors: Yali Liu, Maria Avello Iturriagagoitia

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Background: Fitness applications (apps) are one of the most popular mobile health (mHealth) apps. These apps can help prevent/control health issues such as obesity, which is one of the most serious public health challenges in the developed world in recent decades. Compared with the traditional intervention like face-to-face treatment, it is cheaper and more convenient to use fitness apps to interfere with physical activities and healthy behaviors. Nevertheless, fitness applications apps tend to have high abandonment rates and low levels of user engagement. Therefore, maintaining the endurance of users' usage is challenging. In fact, previous research shows a variety of strategies -goal-setting, self-monitoring, coaching, etc.- for promoting fitness and health behavior change. These strategies can influence the users’ perseverance and self-monitoring of the program as well as favoring their adherence to routines that involve a long-term behavioral change. However, commercial fitness apps rarely incorporate these strategies into their design, thus leading to a lack of engagement with the apps. Most of today’s mobile services and brands engage their users proactively via push notifications. Push notifications. These notifications are visual or auditory alerts to inform mobile users about a wide range of topics that entails an effective and personal mean of communication between the app and the user. One of the research purposes of this article is to implement the application of behavior change strategies through push notifications. Proposes: This study aims to better understand the influence that effective use of push notifications combined with the behavioral change strategies will have on users’ engagement with the fitness app. And the secondary objectives are 1) to discuss the sociodemographic differences in utilization of push notifications of fitness apps; 2) to determine the impact of each strategy in customer engagement. Methods: The study uses a combination of the Consumer Engagement Theory and UTAUT2 based model to conduct an online survey among current users of fitness apps. The questionnaire assessed attitudes to each behavioral change strategy, and sociodemographic variables. Findings: Results show the positive effect of push notifications in the generation of consumer engagement and the different impacts of each strategy among different groups of population in customer engagement. Conclusions: Fitness apps with behavior change strategies have a positive impact on increasing users’ usage time and customer engagement. Theoretical experts can participate in designing fitness applications, along with technical designers.

Keywords: behavioral change, customer engagement, fitness app, push notification, UTAUT2

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Authors: Clive L. Morley

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Gravity models and panel data modelling of tourism flows are receiving renewed attention, after decades of general neglect. Such models have quite different underpinnings from conventional demand models derived from micro-economic theory. They operate at a different level of data and with different theoretical bases. These differences have important consequences for the interpretation of the results and their policy and managerial implications. This review compares and contrasts the two model forms, clarifying the distinguishing features and the estimation requirements of each. In general, gravity models are not recommended for use to address specific management and marketing purposes.

Keywords: gravity models, micro-economics, demand models, marketing

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Authors: Mohit Kumar, Mayur Betharia

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Healthcare domain, with the emergence of Electronic Medical Record (EMR), collects a lot of data which have been attracting Data Mining expert’s interest. In the past, doctors have relied on their intuition while making critical clinical decisions. This paper presents the means to analyze the Medical workflows to get business insights out of huge dumped medical databases. Market Basket Analysis (MBA) which is a special data mining technique, has been widely used in marketing and e-commerce field to discover the association between products bought together by customers. It helps businesses in increasing their sales by analyzing the purchasing behavior of customers and pitching the right customer with the right product. This paper is an attempt to demonstrate Market Basket Analysis applications in healthcare. In particular, it discusses the Market Basket Analysis Algorithm ‘Apriori’ applications within healthcare in major areas such as analyzing the workflow of diagnostic procedures, Up-selling and Cross-selling of Healthcare Systems, designing healthcare systems more user-friendly. In the paper, we have demonstrated the MBA applications using Angiography Systems, but can be extrapolated to other modalities as well.

Keywords: data mining, market basket analysis, healthcare applications, knowledge discovery in healthcare databases, customer relationship management, healthcare systems

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Authors: Seher Arslankaya, Merve Si̇mge Usuk

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Lean manufacturing, which is based on the Toyota Production System, has focused on increasing the performance in various fields by eliminating the waste. By waste elimination, the lead time is reduced significantly and lean manufacturing provides companies with an important privilege under today's competitive conditions. The initial point of lean thinking is the value. This notion create of a specific product with specific properties for which the customer is ready to pay and which satisfies his needs within a specific time frame and at a specific price. Considering this, the final customer determines the value but the manufacturer creates this value of the product. The value stream is the whole set of activities required for each product. These activities may or may not be essential for the value. Through value stream mapping, all employees can see the sources of waste and develop future cases to eliminate it. This study focused on manufacturing to eliminate the waste which created a cost but did not create any value. The study was carried out at the Department of Assembly/Logistics at Toyota Motor Manufacturing Turkey from the automotive industry with a high product mix and variable demands. As a result of the value stream analysis, improvements are planned for the future cases. The process was improved by applying these suggestions.

Keywords: lead time, lean manufacturing, performance improvement, value stream papping

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Authors: Prasansha Kumari

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This paper intends to identify and analyze customer adoption and attitudes towards mobile banking facilities. The study uses six perceived characteristics of innovation that can be used to form a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward an innovation, namely: Relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trailability, risk, and observability. Collected data were analyzed using Pearson Chi-Square test. The results showed that mobile bank users were predominantly males. There is a growing trend among young, educated customers towards converting to mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The research outcomes suggested that all the six factors are statistically highly significant in influencing mobile banking adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The major reasons for adopting mobile banking services are the accessibility and availability of services regardless of time and place. Over the 75 percent of the respondents mentioned that savings in time and effort and low financial costs of conducting mobile banking were advantageous. Issue of security was found to be the most important factor that motivated consumer adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking. Main barriers to mobile banking were the lack of technological skills, the traditional cash‐carry banking culture, and the lack of awareness and insufficient guidance to using mobile banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observability, risk

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Authors: Edi Artono, Budi Tamtomo, Gema Wahyudi Purnama

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The world energy demand increasing extreamly high time by time, including domestic demand. That is impossible to avoid because energy a country demand proportional to surge in the number of residents, economic growth and addition of industrial sector. Domestic Oil and gas conventional reserves depleted naturally while production outcome from reservoir also depleted time to time. In the other hand, new reserve did not discover significantly to replace it all. Many people are investigating to looking for new alternative energy to answer the challenge. There are several option to solve energy fossil needed problem using Unconventional Hydrocarbon. There are four aspects to consider as a management reference in order that Unconventional Hydrocarbon business can work properly, divided to: 1. Legal aspect, 2. Environmental aspect, 3. Technical aspect and 4. Economy aspect. The economic aspect as the key to whether or not a project can be implemented or not in Oil and Gas business scheme, so do Unconventional Hydorcarbon business scheme. The support of regulation are needed to buttress Unconventional Hydorcarbon business grow up and make benefits contribute to Government.

Keywords: alternative energy, unconventional hydrocarbon, regulation support, management strategy

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Authors: Glenda Marie D. Balitaan

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The branch of business management that deals with inventory planning and control is known as inventory management. It comprises keeping track of supply levels and forecasting demand, as well as scheduling when and how to plan. Keeping excess inventory results in a loss of money, takes up physical space, and raises the risk of damage, spoilage, and loss. On the other hand, too little inventory frequently causes operations to be disrupted and raises the possibility of low customer satisfaction, both of which can be detrimental to a company's reputation. The United Victorious Feed mill Corporation's present inventory management practices were assessed in terms of inventory level, warehouse allocation, ordering frequency, shelf life, and production requirement. To help the company achieve their optimal level of inventory, a mathematical model was created using Integer Linear Programming. Due to the season, the goal function was to reduce the cost of purchasing US Soya and Yellow Corn. Warehouse space, annual production requirements, and shelf life were all considered. To ensure that the user only uses one application to record all relevant information, like production output and delivery, the researcher built a Visual Basic system. Additionally, the technology allows management to change the model's parameters.

Keywords: inventory management, integer linear programming, inventory management system, feed mill

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Authors: Gianni Blasi, Daniele Perrone, Maria Antonietta Aiello

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The seismic vulnerability of non-structural components is nowadays recognized to be a key issue in performance-based earthquake engineering. Recent loss estimation studies, as well as the damage observed during past earthquakes, evidenced how non-structural damage represents the highest rate of economic loss in a building and can be in many cases crucial in a life-safety view during the post-earthquake emergency. The procedures developed to evaluate the seismic demand on non-structural components have been constantly improved and recent studies demonstrated how the existing formulations provided by main Standards generally ignore features which have a sensible influence on the definition of the seismic acceleration/displacements subjecting non-structural components. Since the influence of the infills on the dynamic behaviour of RC structures has already been evidenced by many authors, it is worth to be noted that the evaluation of the seismic demand on non-structural components should consider the presence of the infills as well as their mechanical properties. This study focuses on the evaluation of time-history floor acceleration in RC buildings; which is a useful mean to perform seismic vulnerability analyses of non-structural components through the well-known cascade method. Dynamic analyses are performed on an 8-storey RC frame, taking into account the presence of the infills; the influence of the elastic modulus of the panel on the results is investigated as well as the presence of openings. Floor accelerations obtained from the analyses are used to evaluate the floor response spectra, in order to define the demand on non-structural components depending on the properties of the infills. Finally, the results are compared with formulations provided by main International Standards, in order to assess the accuracy and eventually define the improvements required according to the results of the present research work.

Keywords: floor spectra, infilled RC frames, non-structural components, seismic demand

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Authors: Nadjet Brahmia

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The evolution of urban forms, the new aspects of mobility, the ways of life and economic models make public transport conventional collective low-performing on the majority of largest Algerian cities, particularly in the west of Algeria. On the other side, the information and communication technologies (ICT) open new eventualities to develop a new mode of transport which brings together both the tenders offered by the public service collective and those of the particular vehicle, suitable for urban requirements, social and environmental. Like the concrete examples made in the international countries in terms of on-demand transport systems (ODT) more particularly in the developed countries, this article has for objective the opportunity analysis to establish a service of ODT at the level of a few towns of Oran Wilaya, such a service will be subsequently spread on the totality of the Wilaya if not on the whole of Algeria. In this context, we show the different existing means of transport in the current network whose aim to illustrate the points of insufficiency accented in the present transport system, then we discuss the solutions that may exhibit a service of ODT to the problem studied all around the transport sector, to carry at the end to highlight the capabilities of ODT replying to the transformation of mobilities, this in the light of well-defined cases.

Keywords: mobility, on-demand transport, public transport collective, transport system

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Authors: Timothy Akinwande, Eddie Hui, Karien Dekker

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Housing the urban poor remains a persistent challenge, despite evident research attention over many years. It is, therefore, pertinent to investigate affordable housing provision challenges with novel approaches. For innovative solutions to affordable housing constraints, it is apposite to thoroughly examine housing solutions vis a vis the key elements of the housing supply value chain (HSVC), which are housing finance, housing construction and land acquisition. A pragmatic analysis will examine affordable housing solutions from demand and supply perspectives to arrive at consolidated solutions from bilateral viewpoints. This study thoroughly examined informal housing finance strategies of the urban poor and diligently investigated expert opinion on affordable housing finance solutions. The research questions were: (1) What mutual grounds exist between informal housing finance solutions of the urban poor and housing expert solutions to affordable housing finance constraints in developing economies? (2) What are effective approaches to affordable housing finance in developing economies from an integrated demand - supply perspective? Semi-structured interviews were conducted in the 5 largest slums of Lagos, Nigeria, with 40 informal settlers for demand-oriented solutions, while focus group discussion and in-depth interviews were conducted with 12 housing experts in Nigeria for supply-oriented solutions. Following a rigorous thematic, content and descriptive analyses of data using NVivo and Excel, findings ascertained mutual solutions from both demand and supply standpoints that can be consolidated into more effective affordable housing finance solutions in Nigeria. Deliberate finance models that recognise and include the finance realities of the urban poor was found to be the most significant supply-side housing finance solution, representing 25.4% of total expert responses. Findings also show that 100% of sampled urban poor engage in vocations where they earn little irregular income or zero income, limiting their housing finance capacities and creditworthiness. Survey revealed that the urban poor are involved in community savings and employ microfinance institutions within the informal settlements to tackle their housing finance predicaments. These are informal finance models of the urban poor, revealing common grounds between demand and supply solutions for affordable housing financing. Effective, affordable housing approach will be to modify, institutionalise and incorporate the informal finance strategies of the urban poor into deliberate government policies. This consolidation of solutions from demand and supply perspectives can eliminate the persistent misalliance between affordable housing demand and affordable housing supply. This study provides insights into mutual housing solutions from demand and supply perspectives, and findings are informative for effective, affordable housing provision approaches in developing countries. This study is novel in consolidating affordable housing solutions from demand and supply viewpoints, especially in relation to housing finance as a key component of HSVC. The framework for effective, affordable housing finance in developing economies from a consolidated viewpoint generated in this study is significant for the achievement of sustainable development goals, especially goal 11 for sustainable, resilient and inclusive cities. Findings are vital for future housing studies.

Keywords: affordable housing, affordable housing finance, developing economies, effective affordable housing, housing policy, urban poor, sustainable development goal, sustainable affordable housing

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Authors: B. Chikh, L. Moussa, H. Bechtoula, Y. Mehani, A. Zerzour

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This study presents a new method, applicable to evaluation and design of structures has been developed and illustrated by comparison with the capacity spectrum method (CSM, ATC-40). This method uses inelastic spectra and gives peak responses consistent with those obtained when using the nonlinear time history analysis. Hereafter, the seismic demands assessment method is called in this paper DSM, Ductility Spectrum Method. It is used to estimate the seismic deformation of Single-Degree-Of-Freedom (SDOF) systems based on DDRS, Ductility Demand Response Spectrum, developed by the author.

Keywords: seismic demand, capacity, inelastic spectra, design and structure

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Authors: Ira Joseph

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The LNG paradox addresses the issue of how the most expensive form of gas supply, which is LNG, will grow in an end user market where demand is most competitive, which is power generation. In this case, LNG demand growth is under siege from two entirely different directions. At one end is price; it will be extremely difficult for gas to replace coal in Asia due to the low price of coal and the age of the generation plants. Asia's coal fleet, on average, is less than two decades old and will need significant financial incentives to retire before its state lifespan. While gas would cut emissions in half relative to coal, it would also more than double the price of the fuel source for power generation, which puts it in a precarious position. In most countries in Asia other than China, this cost increase, particularly from imports, is simply not realistic when it is also necessary to focus on economic growth and social welfare. On the other end, renewables are growing at an exponential rate for three reasons. One is that prices are dropping. Two is that policy incentives are driving deployment, and three is that China is forcing renewables infrastructure into the market to take a political seat at the global energy table with Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia. Plus, more renewables will lower import growth of oil and gas in China, if not end it altogether. Renewables are the predator at the gate of gas demand in power generation and in every year that passes, renewables cut into demand growth projections for gas; in particular, the type of gas that is most expensive, which is LNG. Gas does have a role in the future, particularly within a domestic market. Once it crosses borders in the form of LNG or even pipeline gas, it quickly becomes a premium fuel and must be marketed and used this way. Our research shows that gas will be able to compete with batteries as an intermittency and storage tool and does offer a method to harmonize with renewables as part of the energy transition. As a baseload fuel, however, the role of gas, particularly, will be limited by cost once it needs to cross a border. Gas converted into blue or green hydrogen or ammonia is also an option for storage depending on the location. While this role is much reduced from the primary baseload role that gas once aspired to land, it still offers a credible option for decades to come.

Keywords: natural gas, LNG, demand, price, intermittency, storage, renewables

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Authors: Pedram Saadati, Zahra Nazari

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Anticipating and identifying future opportunities and challenges facing industry activists for the emergence and entry of new knowledge and technologies of personal financial planning, and providing practical solutions is one of the goals of this research. For this purpose, a future research tool based on receiving opinions from the main players of the insurance industry has been used. The research method in this study was in 4 stages; including 1- a survey of the specialist salesforce of life insurance in order to identify the variables 2- the ranking of the variables by experts selected by a researcher-made questionnaire 3- holding a panel of experts with the aim of understanding the mutual effects of the variables and 4- statistical analyzes of the mutual effects matrix in Mick Mac software is done. The integrated analysis of influencing variables in the future has been done with the method of Structural Analysis, which is one of the efficient and innovative methods of future research. A list of opportunities and challenges was identified through a survey of best-selling life insurance representatives who were selected by snowball sampling. In order to prioritize and identify the most important issues, all the issues raised were sent to selected experts who were selected theoretically through a researcher-made questionnaire. The respondents determined the importance of 36 variables through scoring, so that the prioritization of opportunity and challenge variables can be determined. 8 of the variables identified in the first stage were removed by selected experts, and finally, the number of variables that could be examined in the third stage became 28 variables, which, in order to facilitate the examination, were divided into 6 categories, respectively, 11 variables of organization and management. Marketing and sales 7 cases, social and cultural 6 cases, technological 2 cases, rebranding 1 case and insurance 1 case were divided. The reliability of the researcher-made questionnaire was confirmed with the Cronbach's alpha test value of 0.96. In the third stage, by forming a panel consisting of 5 insurance industry experts, the consensus of their opinions about the influence of factors on each other and the ranking of variables was entered into the matrix. The matrix included the interrelationships of 28 variables, which were investigated using the structural analysis method. By analyzing the data obtained from the matrix by Mic Mac software, the findings of the research indicate that the categories of "correct training in the use of the software, the weakness of the technology of insurance companies in personalizing products, using the approach of equipping the customer, and honesty in declaring no need Customer to Insurance", the most important challenges of the influencer and the categories of "salesforce equipping approach, product personalization based on customer needs assessment, customer's pleasant experience of being consulted with consulting robots, business improvement of the insurance company due to the use of these tools, increasing the efficiency of the issuance process and optimal customer purchase" were identified as the most important opportunities for influence.

Keywords: personal financial planning, wealth management, advisor robots, life insurance, digital transformation

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Authors: Mikael Soini, Kari Björn

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Metropolia University of Applied Sciences (MUAS) Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Degree Programme provides full-time Bachelor-level undergraduate studies. ICT Degree Programme has seven different major options; this paper focuses on Health Technology. In Health Technology, a significant curriculum change in 2014 enabled transition from fragmented curriculum including dozens of courses to a new integrated curriculum built around three 30 ECTS themes. This paper focuses especially on the second theme called Customer Oriented Software Applications. From students’ point of view, the goal of this theme is to get familiar with existing health related ICT solutions and systems, understand business around health technology, recognize social and healthcare operating principles and services, and identify customers and users and their special needs and perspectives. This also acts as a background for health related web application development. Built web application is tested, developed and evaluated with real users utilizing versatile user centred development methods. This paper presents experiences obtained from the first implementation of Customer Oriented Software Applications theme. Student feedback was gathered with two questionnaires, one in the middle of the theme and other at the end of the theme. Questionnaires had qualitative and quantitative parts. Similar questionnaire was implemented in the first theme; this paper evaluates how the theme-based integrated curriculum has progressed in Health Technology major by comparing results between theme 1 and 2. In general, students were satisfied for the implementation, timing and synchronization of the courses, and the amount of work. However there is still room for development. Student feedback and teachers’ observations have been and will be used to develop the content and operating principles of the themes and whole curriculum.

Keywords: engineering education, integrated curriculum, learning and teaching methods, learning experience

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Authors: Ahmad Samim Ranjbar, Shoshi Mizokami

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Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the Kabul fifth fastest growing city in the world, since 2001 with the establishment of new government Lack of adequate employment opportunities and basic utility services in remote provinces have prompted people to move to Kabul and other urban areas. From 2001 to the present, a rapid increase in population, and also less income of the people most of residence tend to use public transport, especially buses, however there is no proper bus system exist in Kabul city, because of wars, from 1992 to 2001 Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transit buses (e.g. Millie bus). This research is a primary and very important phase into Kabul city transportation and especially an initial and important step toward using large bus in Kabul city, which the main purpose of this research is to find the demand of Kabul city residence for public transport (Large Bus) and compare it with the actual supply from government. Finding of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residence for the public transport (Large Bus) exceed the supply from the government, means that current public transportation (Large Bus) is not sufficient to serve people of Kabul city, it is mentionable that according to this research there is no need to build a new road or exclusive way for bus, this research propose to government for investment on the public transportation and exceed the number of large buses to can handle the current demand for public transport.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, large bus, Kabul, Afghanistan

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Authors: Muhammad Kashif Fida

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In the bank, teller’s job (cash officer) is highly important and critical as at one end it requires soft and brisk customer services and on the other side, handling cash with integrity. It is always challenging for recruiters to hire competent and trustworthy tellers. According to author’s knowledge, there is no comprehensive test available that may provide assistance in recruitment in Pakistan. So there is a dire need of a psychometric battery that could provide support in recruitment of potential candidates for the teller’ position. So, the aim of the present study was to construct ABL-Teller Aptitude Test (ABL-TApT). Three major phases have been designed by following American Psychological Association’s guidelines. The first phase was qualitative, indicators of the test have been explored by content analysis of the a) teller’s job descriptions (n=3), b) interview with senior tellers (n=6) and c) interview with HR personals (n=4). Content analysis of above yielded three border constructs; i). Personality, ii). Integrity/honesty, iii). Professional Work Aptitude. Identified indicators operationalized and statements (k=170) were generated using verbatim. It was then forwarded to the five experts for review of content validity. They finalized 156 items. In the second phase; ABL-TApT (k=156) administered on 323 participants through a computer application. The overall reliability of the test shows significant alpha coefficient (α=.81). Reliability of subscales have also significant alpha coefficients. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) performed to estimate the construct validity, confirms four main factors comprising of eight personality traits (Confidence, Organized, Compliance, Goal-oriented, Persistent, Forecasting, Patience, Caution), one Integrity/honesty factor, four factors of professional work aptitude (basic numerical ability and perceptual accuracy of letters, numbers and signature) and two factors for customer services (customer services, emotional maturity). Values of GFI, AGFI, NNFI, CFI, RFI and RMSEA are in recommended range depicting significant model fit. In third phase concurrent validity evidences have been pursued. Personality and integrity part of this scale has significant correlations with ‘conscientiousness’ factor of NEO-PI-R, reflecting strong concurrent validity. Customer services and emotional maturity have significant correlations with ‘Bar-On EQI’ showing another evidence of strong concurrent validity. It is concluded that ABL-TAPT is significantly reliable and valid battery of tests, will assist in objective recruitment of tellers and help recruiters in finding a more suitable human resource.

Keywords: concurrent validity, construct validity, content validity, reliability, teller aptitude test, objective recruitment

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Authors: Federico Valenzuela-Beltran, Sonia E. Ruiz, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Juan Bojorquez

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A reliability-based methodology which uses structural demand hazard curves to consider the increment of the ductility demands of structures with tilting is proposed. The approach considers the effect of two orthogonal components of the ground motions as well as the influence of soil-structure interaction. The approach involves the calculation of ductility demand hazard curves for symmetric systems and, alternatively, for systems with different degrees of asymmetry. To get this objective, demand hazard curves corresponding to different global ductility demands of the systems are calculated. Next, Uniform Exceedance Rate Spectra (UERS) are developed for a specific mean annual rate of exceedance value. Ratios between UERS corresponding to asymmetric and to symmetric systems located in soft soil of the valley of Mexico are obtained. Results indicate that the ductility demands corresponding to tilted structures may be several times higher than those corresponding to symmetric structures, depending on several factors such as tilting angle and vibration period of structure and soil.

Keywords: asymmetric yielding, seismic performance, structural reliability, tilted structures

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Authors: Aydin Sipahioglu, Gokhan Celik

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Helicopter routing problem (HRP) is finding good tours for helicopter so as to pick up and deliver personnel or material among specified nodes, mutually. It can be encountered in case of being lots of supply and demand points for different commodities and requiring delivering commodities with helicopter. For instance, to deliver personnel or material from shore to oil rig is a good example. In fact, HRP is a branch of vehicle routing problem with pickup and delivery (VRPPD). However, it has additional constraints such that fuel capacity, performance of helicopter in different altitude and temperature, and the number of maximum takeoff and landing allowed. This kind of pickup and delivery problems can be classified into 3 groups, basically. 1-1 (one to one), M-M (many to many) and 1-M-1 (one to many to one). 1-1 means each commodity has only one supply and one demand point. M-M means there can be more than one supply and demand points for each kind of commodity. 1-M-1 means commodities at depot are delivered to demand points and commodities at customers are delivered to depot. In this case helicopter takes off from its own base, complete its tour and return to its own base. In this study, we define 1-M-M-1 type HRP. That means helicopter takes off from its home base, deliver commodities among the nodes as well as between depot and customers and return to its home base. These problems have NP-hard nature. Therefore, obtaining a good solution in a reasonable time is not easy. In this study, a model is offered for 1-M-M-1 type HRP. It is shown on small scale test instances that the model can find the optimal solution.

Keywords: helicopter routing problem, vehicle routing with pickup and delivery, integer programming

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Authors: Sevde D. Karayel, Ediz Atmaca

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Supplier selection subject is vital because of development competitiveness and performance of firms which have right, rapid and with low cost procurement. Considering the fact that competition between firms is no longer on their supply chains, hence it is very clear that performance of the firms’ not only depend on their own success but also success of all departments in supply chain. For this purpose, firms want to work with suppliers which are cost effective, flexible in terms of demand and high quality level for customer satisfaction. However, diversification and redundancy of their expectations from suppliers, supplier selection problems need to be solved as a hard problem. In this study, supplier selection problem is discussed for critical piece, which is using almost all production of products in and has troubles with lead time from supplier, in a firm that produces medical devices. Analyzing policy in the current situation of the firm in the supplier selection indicates that supplier selection is made based on the purchasing department experience and other authorized persons’ general judgments. Because selection do not make based on the analytical methods, it is caused disruptions in production, lateness and extra cost. To solve the problem, AHP and TOPSIS which are multi-criteria decision making techniques, which are effective, easy to implement and can analyze many criteria simultaneously, are used to make a selection among alternative suppliers.

Keywords: AHP-TOPSIS methods, multi-criteria decision making, supplier selection problem, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 251