Search results for: discrete latent variable

Authors: A. Idawaty, O. Mohamed, A. Z. Zuriati

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This paper presents the development of an event based Discrete Event Simulation (DES) for a recovery algorithm known Backward Recovery Global Preemptive Utility Accrual Scheduling (BR_GPUAS). This algorithm implements the Backward Recovery (BR) mechanism as a fault recovery solution under the existing Time/Utility Function/ Utility Accrual (TUF/UA) scheduling domain for multiprocessor environment. The BR mechanism attempts to take the faulty tasks back to its initial safe state and then proceeds to re-execute the affected section of the faulty tasks to enable recovery. Considering that faults may occur in the components of any system; a fault tolerance system that can nullify the erroneous effect is necessary to be developed. Current TUF/UA scheduling algorithm uses the abortion recovery mechanism and it simply aborts the erroneous task as their fault recovery solution. None of the existing algorithm in TUF/UA scheduling domain in multiprocessor scheduling environment have considered the transient fault and implement the BR mechanism as a fault recovery mechanism to nullify the erroneous effect and solve the recovery problem in this domain. The developed BR_GPUAS simulator has derived the set of parameter, events and performance metrics according to a detailed analysis of the base model. Simulation results revealed that BR_GPUAS algorithm can saved almost 20-30% of the accumulated utilities making it reliable and efficient for the real-time application in the multiprocessor scheduling environment.

Keywords: real-time system (RTS), time utility function/ utility accrual (TUF/UA) scheduling, backward recovery mechanism, multiprocessor, discrete event simulation (DES)

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Authors: Mojtaba Molaahmadi, Morteza Raei Dehaghi, Abdolrahim Arghavan

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The present study aims to explore the effect of computerization on marketing performance in Snowa Company. In other words, this study intends to respond to this question that whether or not there is a relationship between utilization of computerization in marketing activities and marketing performance. The statistical population included 60 marketing managers of Snowa Company. In order to test the research hypotheses, Pearson correlation coefficient was employed. The reliability was equal to 96.8%. In this study, computerization was the independent variable and marketing performance was the dependent variable with characteristics of market share, improving the competitive position, and sales volume. The results of testing the hypotheses revealed that there is a significant relationship between utilization of computerization and market share, sales volume and improving the competitive position

Keywords: computerization, e-marketing information, information technology, marketing performance

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis

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Authors: Soha Saad, Jean Bigeon, Florence Ossart, Etienne Sourdille

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Developing better solutions for train rescheduling problems has been drawing the attention of researchers for decades. Most researches in this field deal with minor incidents that affect a large number of trains due to cascading effects. They focus on timetables, rolling stock and crew duties, but do not take into account infrastructure limits. The present work addresses electric infrastructure incidents that limit the power available for train traction, and hence the transportation capacity of the railway system. Rescheduling is needed in order to optimally share the available power among the different trains. We propose a rescheduling process based on dynamic multiphysics railway simulations that include the mechanical and electrical properties of all the system components and calculate physical quantities such as the train speed profiles, voltage along the catenary lines, temperatures, etc. The optimization problem to solve has a large number of continuous and discrete variables, several output constraints due to physical limitations of the system, and a high computation cost. Our approach includes a phase of sensitivity analysis in order to analyze the behavior of the system and help the decision making process and/or more precise optimization. This approach is a quantitative method based on simulation statistics of the dynamic railway system, considering a predefined range of variation of the input parameters. Three important settings are defined. Factor prioritization detects the input variables that contribute the most to the outputs variation. Then, factor fixing allows calibrating the input variables which do not influence the outputs. Lastly, factor mapping is used to study which ranges of input values lead to model realizations that correspond to feasible solutions according to defined criteria or objectives. Generalized Sobol indexes are used for factor prioritization and factor fixing. The approach is tested in the case of a simple railway system, with a nominal traffic running on a single track line. The considered incident is the loss of a feeding power substation, which limits the power available and the train speed. Rescheduling is needed and the variables to be adjusted are the trains departure times, train speed reduction at a given position and the number of trains (cancellation of some trains if needed). The results show that the spacing between train departure times is the most critical variable, contributing to more than 50% of the variation of the model outputs. In addition, we identify the reduced range of variation of this variable which guarantees that the output constraints are respected. Optimal solutions are extracted, according to different potential objectives: minimizing the traveling time, the train delays, the traction energy, etc. Pareto front is also built.

Keywords: optimization, rescheduling, railway system, sensitivity analysis, train timetable

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Authors: M. C. Yu, Z. L. Niu, L. G. Zhang, W. W. Cui, Y. L. Zhang

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According to the theory of the vibration isolation for linear systems, linear damping can reduce the transmissibility at the resonant frequency, but inescapably increase the transmissibility of the isolation frequency region. To resolve this problem, nonlinear vibration isolation technology has recently received increasing attentions. Shear thickening fluid (STF) is a special colloidal material. When STF is subject to high shear rate, it rheological property changes from a flowable behavior into a rigid behavior, i.e., it presents shear thickening effect. STF isolator is a vibration isolator using STF as working material. Because of shear thickening effect, STF isolator is a variable-damped isolator. It exhibits small damping under high vibration frequency and strong damping at resonance frequency due to shearing rate increasing. So its special inherent character is very favorable for vibration isolation, especially for restraining resonance. In this paper, firstly, STF was prepared by dispersing nano-particles of silica into polyethylene glycol 200 fluid, followed by rheological properties test. After that, an STF isolator was designed. The vibration isolation system supported by STF isolator was modeled, and the numerical simulation was conducted to study the vibration isolation properties of STF. And finally, the effect factors on vibrations isolation performance was also researched quantitatively. The research suggests that owing to its variable damping, STF vibration isolator can effetely restrain resonance without bringing unfavorable effect at high frequency, which meets the need of ideal damping properties and resolves the problem of traditional isolators.

Keywords: shear thickening fluid, variable-damped isolator, vibration isolation, restrain resonance

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Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Ilias Oraifige

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Decision making for sustainable manufacturing design and management requires critical considerations due to the complexity and partly conflicting issues of economic, social and environmental factors. Although there are tools capable of assessing the combination of one or two of the sustainability factors, the frameworks have not adequately integrated all the three factors. Case study and review of existing simulation applications also shows the approach lacks integration of the sustainability factors. In this paper we discussed the development of a simulation based framework for support of a holistic assessment of sustainable manufacturing design and management. To achieve this, a strategic approach is introduced to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing decision supporting tools. Investigation reveals that Discrete Event Simulation (DES) can serve as a rock base for other Life Cycle Analysis frameworks. Simio-DES application optimizes systems for both economic and competitive advantage, Granta CES EduPack and SimaPro collate data for Material Flow Analysis and environmental Life Cycle Assessment, while social and stakeholders’ analysis is supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method. Such a common and integrated framework creates a platform for companies to build a computer simulation model of a real system and assess the impact of alternative solutions before implementing a chosen solution.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, life cycle sustainability analysis, manufacturing, sustainability

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Authors: Julia Cristina Bonaldo, Christophe L. Martin, Severine Romero Baivier, Stephane Mazerat

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Alumina refractories are commonly used in steel and foundry industries. These refractories are prepared through a powder metallurgy route. They are a mixture of hard alumina particles and graphite platelets embedded into a soft carbonic matrix (binder). The powder can be cold pressed isostatically or uniaxially, depending on the application. The compact is then fired to obtain the final product. The quality of the product is governed by the microstructure of the composite and by the process parameters. The compaction behavior and the mechanical properties of the fired product depend greatly on the amount of each phase, on their morphology and on the initial microstructure. In order to better understand the link between these parameters and the macroscopic behavior, we use the Discrete Element Method (DEM) to simulate the compaction process and the fracture behavior of the fired composite. These simulations are coupled with well-designed experiments. Four mixes with various amounts of Al₂O₃ and binder were tested both experimentally and numerically. In DEM, each particle is modelled and the interactions between particles are taken into account through appropriate contact or bonding laws. Here, we model a bimodal mixture of large Al₂O₃ and small Al₂O₃ covered with a soft binder. This composite is itself mixed with graphite platelets. X-ray tomography images are used to analyze the morphologies of the different components. Large Al₂O₃ particles and graphite platelets are modelled in DEM as sets of particles bonded together. The binder is modelled as a soft shell that covers both large and small Al₂O₃ particles. When two particles with binder indent each other, they first interact through this soft shell. Once a critical indentation is reached (towards the end of compaction), hard Al₂O₃ - Al₂O₃ contacts appear. In accordance with experimental data, DEM simulations show that the amount of Al₂O₃ and the amount of binder play a major role for the compaction behavior. The graphite platelets bend and break during the compaction, also contributing to the macroscopic stress. Firing step is modeled in DEM by ascribing bonds to particles which contact each other after compaction. The fracture behavior of the compacted mixture is also simulated and compared with experimental data. Both diametrical tests (Brazilian tests) and triaxial tests are carried out. Again, the link between the amount of Al₂O₃ particles and the fracture behavior is investigated. The methodology described here can be generalized to other particulate materials that are used in the ceramic industry.

Keywords: cold compaction, composites, discrete element method, refractory materials, x-ray tomography

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Authors: Jefri Draup, Antoine Ambard, Chi-Toan Nguyen

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Zirconium alloys exhibit solid-state phase transformations under thermal loading. These can lead to a significant evolution of the microstructure and associated mechanical properties of materials used in nuclear fuel cladding structures. Therefore, the ability to capture effects of phase transformation on the material constitutive behavior is of interest during conditions of severe transient thermal loading. Whilst typical Avrami, or Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK), type models for phase transformations have been shown to have a good correlation with the behavior of Zircaloy-4 under constant heating rates, the effects of variable and fast heating rates are not fully explored. The present study utilises the results of in-situ high energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction (SXRD) measurements in order to validate the phase transformation models for Zircaloy-4 under fast variable heating rates. These models are used to assess the performance of fuel cladding structures under loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. The results indicate that simple Avrami type models can provide a reasonable indication of the phase distribution in experimental test specimens under variable fast thermal loading. However, the accuracy of these models deteriorates under the faster heating regimes, i.e., 100Cs⁻¹. The studies highlight areas for improvement of simple Avrami type models, such as the inclusion of temperature rate dependence of the JMAK n-exponent.

Keywords: accident, fuel, modelling, zirconium

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Authors: Ruiyang Bi

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Natural rock masses are cut into rock blocks of different shapes and sizes by intersecting joints. These rock blocks often determine the mechanical properties of the rock mass. In this study, fine sandstone cube specimens were produced, and three intersecting joint cracks were cut inside the specimen. Uniaxial compression tests were conducted using mechanical tests and numerical simulation methods to study the mechanical properties and crack propagation mechanism of triangular blocks within the rock. During the test, the mechanical strength, acoustic emission characteristics and strain field evolution of the specimen were analyzed. Discrete element software was used to study the expansion of microcracks during the specimen failure process, and the crack types were divided. The simulation results show that as the inclination angles of the three joints increase simultaneously, the mechanical strength of the specimen first decreases and then increases, and the crack type is mainly shear. As the inclination angle of a single joint increases, the strength of the specimen gradually decreases. When the inclination angles of the two joints increase at the same time, the strength of the specimen gradually decreases. The research results show that the stability of the rock mass is affected by the joint inclination angle and the size of the cut blocks. The greater the joint dip and block size, the more significant the development of micro-cracks in the rock mass, and the worse the stability.

Keywords: rock joints, uniaxial compression, crack extension, discrete element simulation

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Authors: Jatindra Lahkar

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The effect of chemical reaction on laminar mixed convection flow and heat and mass transfer along a vertical unsteady stretching sheet is investigated, in the presence of heat generation/absorption with variable viscosity and viscous dissipation. The governing non-linear partial differential equations are reduced to ordinary differential equations using similarity transformation and solved numerically using the fourth order Runge-Kutta method along with shooting technique. The effects of various flow parameters on the velocity, temperature and concentration distributions are analyzed and presented graphically. Skin-friction coefficient, Nusselt number and Sherwood number are derived at the sheet. It is observed that the influence of chemical reaction, the fluid flow along the sheet accelerate with the increase of chemical reaction parameter, on the other hand, temperature of the fluid increases with increase of chemical reaction parameter but concentration of the fluid reduces with it. The boundary layer decreases on the surface of the sheet for all values of unsteadiness parameter, increasing values of the chemical reaction parameter. The increases in the values of Sc cause the species concentration and its boundary layer thickness to decrease resulting in less induced flow and higher fluid temperatures. This is depicted in the decreases in the velocity and species concentration and increases in the fluid temperature as Sc increases.

Keywords: chemical reaction, heat generation/absorption, magnetic number, unsteadiness, variable viscosity

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Authors: Júlia Cristina Bonaldo, Christophe L. Martin, Martiniano Piccico, Keith Beale, Roop Kishore, Severine Romero-Baivier

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Refractory composite materials employed in steel casting applications are prone to cracking and material damage because of the very high operating temperature (thermal shock) and mismatched properties of the constituent phases. The fracture behavior of a model MgO-C composite refractory is investigated to quantify and characterize its thermal shock resistance, employing a cold crushing test and Brazilian test with fractographic analysis. The discrete element method (DEM) is used to generate numerical refractory composites. The composite in DEM is represented by an assembly of bonded particle clusters forming perfectly spherical aggregates and single spherical particles. For the stresses to converge with a low standard deviation and a minimum number of particles to allow reasonable CPU calculation time, representative volume element (RVE) numerical packings are created with various numbers of particles. Key microscopic properties are calibrated sequentially by comparing stress-strain curves from crushing experimental data. Comparing simulations with experiments also allows for the evaluation of crack propagation, fracture energy, and strength. The crack propagation during Brazilian experimental tests is monitored with digital image correlation (DIC). Simulations and experiments reveal three distinct types of fracture. The crack may spread throughout the aggregate, at the aggregate-matrix interface, or throughout the matrix.

Keywords: refractory composite, fracture mechanics, crack propagation, DEM

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Authors: Anna Ching-Yu Wong

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This study aims to identify the quality and effectiveness of the adult programs provided by the public library using the ServQUAL Method and the National Library Public Programs Assessment guidelines (NIPPA, June 2019). ServQUAl covers several variables, namely: tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy. NIPPA guidelines focus on program characteristics, particularly on the outcomes – the level of satisfaction from program participants. The reached populations were adults who participated in library adult programs at a small-town public library in Kansas. This study was designed as quantitative evaluative research which analyzed the quality and effectiveness of the library adult programs by analyzing the role of each factor based on ServQUAL and the NIPPA's library program assessment guidelines. Data were collected from November 2019 to January 2020 using a questionnaire with a Likert Scale. The data obtained were analyzed in a descriptive quantitative manner. The impact of this research can provide information about the quality and effectiveness of existing programs and can be used as input to develop strategies for developing future adult programs. Overall the result of ServQUAL measurement is in very good quality, but still, areas need improvement and emphasis in each variable: Tangible Variables still need improvement in indicators of the temperature and space of the meeting room. Reliability Variable still needs improvement in the timely delivery of the programs. Responsiveness Variable still needs improvement in terms of the ability of the presenters to convey trust and confidence from participants. Assurance Variables still need improvement in the indicator of knowledge and skills of program presenters. Empathy Variable still needs improvement in terms of the presenters' willingness to provide extra assistance. The result of program outcomes measurement based on NIPPA guidelines is very positive. Over 96% of participants indicated that the programs were informative and fun. They learned new knowledge and new skills and would recommend the programs to their friends and families. They believed that together, the library and participants build stronger and healthier communities.

Keywords: ServQual model, ServQual in public libraries, library program assessment, NIPPA library programs assessment

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Authors: Revanth Rallapalli

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Manually dispensing powders can be difficult as it requires gradually pouring and checking the amount on the scale to be dispensed. Current systems are manual and non-continuous in nature and are user-dependent and difficult to control powder dispensation. Recurrent dosing of powdered medicines in precise amounts quickly and accurately has been an all-time challenge. Various new powder dispensing mechanisms are being designed to overcome these challenges. A battery-operated screw conveyor mechanism is being innovated to overcome the above problems faced. These inventions are numerically evaluated at the concept development level by employing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) of gas-solids multiphase flow systems. CFD has been very helpful in the development of such devices saving time and money by reducing the number of prototypes and testing. This paper describes a simulation of powder dispensation from the trocar’s end by considering the powder as secondary flow in the air, is simulated by using the technique called Dense Discrete Phase Model incorporated with Kinetic Theory of Granular Flow (DDPM-KTGF). By considering the volume fraction of powder as 50%, the transportation of powder from the inlet side to the trocar’s end side is done by rotation of the screw conveyor. The performance is calculated for a 1-sec time frame in an unsteady computation manner. This methodology will help designers in developing design concepts to improve the dispensation and the effective area within a quick turnaround time frame.

Keywords: multiphase flow, screw conveyor, transient, dense discrete phase model (DDPM), kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF)

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Authors: Cheng Sheng, Yuemin Zhao, Chenlong Duan

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Air dense medium fluidized bed is a typical application of fluidization techniques for coal particle separation in arid areas, where it is costly to implement wet coal preparation technologies. In the last three decades, air dense medium fluidized bed, as an efficient dry coal separation technique, has been studied in many aspects, including energy and mass transfer, hydrodynamics, bubbling behaviors, etc. Despite numerous researches have been published, the fluidization features, especially dual dense medium fluidization features have been rarely reported. In dual dense medium fluidized beds, different combinations of different dense mediums play a significant role in fluidization quality variation, thus influencing coal separation efficiency. Moreover, to what extent different dense mediums mix and to what extent the two-component particulate mixture affects the fluidization performance and quality have been in suspense. The proposed work attempts to reveal underlying mechanisms of generation and evolution of two-component particulate mixture in the fluidization process. Based on computational fluid dynamics methods and discrete particle modelling, movement and evolution of dual dense mediums in air dense medium fluidized bed have been simulated. Dual dense medium fluidization experiments have been conducted. Electrical capacitance tomography was employed to investigate the distribution of two-component mixture in experiments. Underlying mechanisms involving two-component particulate fluidization are projected to be demonstrated with the analysis and comparison of simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: air dense medium fluidized bed, particle separation, computational fluid dynamics, discrete particle modelling

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Authors: Alice Sanwald, Thomas Schober

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We analyze mortality and follow-up costs of heart attack patients using administrative data from Austria (2002-2011). As treatment intensity in a hospital largely depends on whether it has a catheterization laboratory, we focus on the effects of patients' initial admission to these specialized hospitals. To account for the nonrandom selection of patients into hospitals, we exploit individuals' place of residence as a source of exogenous variation in an instrumental variable framework. We find that the initial admission to specialized hospitals increases patients' survival chances substantially. The effect on 3-year mortality is -9.5 percentage points. A separation of the sample into subgroups shows the strongest effects in relative terms for patients below the age of 65. We do not find significant effects on longterm inpatient costs and find only marginal increases in outpatient costs.

Keywords: acute myocardial infarction, mortality, costs, instrumental variables, heart attack

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Authors: Tamara Slišković, Tomislav Sekur

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This manuscript examines factors that affect demand and supply of the housing market in Croatia. The period from the beginning of this century, until 2008, was characterized by a strong expansion of construction, housing and real estate market in general. Demand for residential units was expanding, and this was supported by favorable lending conditions of banks. Indicators on the supply side, such as the number of newly built houses and the construction volume index were also increasing. Rapid growth of demand, along with the somewhat slower supply growth, led to the situation in which new apartments were sold before the completion of residential buildings. This resulted in a rise of housing price which was indication of a clear link between the housing prices with the supply and demand in the housing market. However, after 2008 general economic conditions in Croatia worsened and demand for housing has fallen dramatically, while supply descended at much slower pace. Given that there is a gap between supply and demand, it can be concluded that the housing market in Croatia is in imbalance. Such trend is accompanied by a relatively small decrease in housing price. The final result of such movements is the large number of unsold housing units at relatively high price levels. For this reason, it can be argued that housing prices are sticky and that, consequently, the price level in the aftermath of a crisis does not correspond to the discrepancy between supply and demand on the Croatian housing market. The degree of rigidity of the housing price can be determined by inclusion of the housing price as the explanatory variable in the housing demand function. Other independent variables are demographic variable (e.g. the number of households), the interest rate on housing loans, households' disposable income and rent. The equilibrium price is reached when the demand for housing equals its supply, and the speed of adjustment of actual prices to equilibrium prices reveals the extent to which the prices are rigid. The latter requires inclusion of the housing prices with time lag as an independent variable in estimating demand function. We also observe the supply side of the housing market, in order to explain to what extent housing prices explain the movement of new construction activity, and other variables that describe the supply. In this context, we test whether new construction on the Croatian market is dependent on current prices or prices with a time lag. Number of dwellings is used to approximate new construction (flow variable), while the housing prices (current or lagged), quantity of dwellings in the previous period (stock variable) and a series of costs related to new construction are independent variables. We conclude that the key reason for the imbalance in the Croatian housing market should be sought in the relative relationship of price elasticities of supply and demand.

Keywords: Croatian housing market, economic crisis, housing prices, supply imbalance, demand imbalance

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Authors: Jean Berger, Nassirou Lo, Martin Noel

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Perfectly suited for natural or man-made emergency and disaster management situations such as flood, earthquakes, tornadoes, or tsunami, multi-target search path planning for a team of rescue agents is known to be computationally hard, and most techniques developed so far come short to successfully estimate optimality gap. A novel mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) formulation is proposed to optimally solve the multi-target multi-agent discrete search and rescue (SAR) path planning problem. Aimed at maximizing cumulative probability of successful target detection, it captures anticipated feedback information associated with possible observation outcomes resulting from projected path execution, while modeling agent discrete actions over all possible moving directions. Problem modeling further takes advantage of network representation to encompass decision variables, expedite compact constraint specification, and lead to substantial problem-solving speed-up. The proposed MIP approach uses CPLEX optimization machinery, efficiently computing near-optimal solutions for practical size problems, while giving a robust upper bound obtained from Lagrangean integrality constraint relaxation. Should eventually a target be positively detected during plan execution, a new problem instance would simply be reformulated from the current state, and then solved over the next decision cycle. A computational experiment shows the feasibility and the value of the proposed approach.

Keywords: search path planning, search and rescue, multi-agent, mixed-integer linear programming, optimization

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Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: Yuichi Morita, Yoshiteru Nakamori

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In car dealer business of Japan, a sale professional is a key factor of company’s success. We hypothesize that, if a corporation knows what is the sales professionals’ trait of its corporation’s business field, it will be easier for a corporation to secure and nurture sales persons effectively. The lean human resources management will ensure business success and good performance of corporations, especially small and medium ones. The goal of the paper is to determine the traits of sales professionals for small-and medium-size car dealers, using chi-square test and the variable rough set model. As a result, the results illustrate that experience of job change, learning ability and product knowledge are important, and an academic background, building a career with internal transfer, experience of the leader and self-development are not important to be a sale professional. Also, we illustrate sales professionals’ traits are persistence, humility, improvisation and passion at business.

Keywords: traits of sales professionals, variable precision rough sets theory, sales professional, sales professionals

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Authors: Zeinab Haji Abolhasani, Romeo Marian, Lee Luong

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This paper and its companions (Part II, Part III) will concentrate on optimizing a class of supply chain problems known as Multi- Commodities Consumer Supply Chain (MCCSC) problem. MCCSC problem belongs to production-distribution (P-D) planning category. It aims to determine facilities location, consumers’ allocation, and facilities configuration to minimize total cost (CT) of the entire network. These facilities can be manufacturer units (MUs), distribution centres (DCs), and retailers/end-users (REs) but not limited to them. To address this problem, three major tasks should be undertaken. At the first place, a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINP) mathematical model is developed. Then, system’s behaviors under different conditions will be observed using a simulation modeling tool. Finally, the most optimum solution (minimum CT) of the system will be obtained using a multi-objective optimization technique. Due to the large size of the problem, and the uncertainties in finding the most optimum solution, integration of modeling and simulation methodologies is proposed followed by developing new approach known as GASG. It is a genetic algorithm on the basis of granular simulation which is the subject of the methodology of this research. In part II, MCCSC is simulated using discrete-event simulation (DES) device within an integrated environment of SimEvents and Simulink of MATLAB® software package followed by a comprehensive case study to examine the given strategy. Also, the effect of genetic operators on the obtained optimal/near optimal solution by the simulation model will be discussed in part III.

Keywords: supply chain, genetic algorithm, optimization, simulation, discrete event system

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Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

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This research will examine the impact of corporate governance on firm performance in family and non-family owned firms in Pakistan. For the purpose of this research, corporate governance mechanisms which included are board size, board composition, leadership structure, board meetings are taken as independent variable and firm performance taken as dependent variable and it will be measured with return on asset and return on equity. Firm size and firm’s age will be taken as control variables. Secondary data will collect from audited annul reports of companies and panel data regression model will applied, to check the impact of corporate governance on firm performance.

Keywords: board size, board composition, Leadership Structure, board meetings, firm performance, family and non-family owned firms

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Authors: Yi-cheng Chen, Ming-jum Guo, Yang-ru Chen

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Background and Objective: For safety and fair during basketball competition, FIBA proposes the definite level of physical functions in wooden surface system (WSS). There are existing various between different systems in indoor-stadium, so the aim of this study want to know how many effects in different WSS, especially for effects of ground reaction force(GRF) when player jumped. Materials and Methods: 12 participants acted counter-movement jump (CMJ) on 7 different surfaces, include 6 WSSs by 3 types rubber shock absorber pad (SAP) on cross or parallel fixed, and 1 rigid ground. GRFs of takeoff and landing had been recorded from an AMTI force platform when all participants acted vertical CMJs by counter-balance design. All data were analyzed using the one-way ANOVA to evaluate whether the test variable differed significantly between surfaces. The significance level was set at α=0.05. Results: There were non-significance in GRF between surfaces when participants taken off. For GRF of landing, we found WSS with cross fixed SAP are harder than parallel fixed. Although there were also non-significance when participant was landing on cross or parallel fixed surfaces, but there have test variable differed significantly between WSS with parallel fixed to rigid ground. In the study, landing to WSS with the hardest SAP, the GRF also have test variable differed significantly to other WSS. Conclusion: Although official basketball competition is in the WSS certificated by FIBA, there are also exist the various in GRF under takeoff or landing, any player must to warm-up before game starting. Especially, there is unsafe situation when play basketball on uncertificated WSS.

Keywords: wooden surface system, counter-movement jump, ground reaction force, shock absorber pad

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Authors: Felix Platzer, Eric Fimbinger

Abstract:

In Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations, the breakage behavior of particles can be simulated based on different principles. In the case of large, complex-shaped particles that show various breakage patterns depending on the scenario leading to the failure and often only break locally instead of fracturing completely, some of these principles do not lead to realistic results. The reason for this is that in said cases, the methods in question, such as the Particle Replacement Method (PRM) or Voronoi Fracture, replace the initial particle (that is intended to break) into several sub-particles when certain breakage criteria are reached, such as exceeding the fracture energy. That is why those methods are commonly used for the simulation of materials that fracture completely instead of breaking locally. That being the case, when simulating local failure, it is advisable to pre-build the initial particle from sub-particles that are bonded together. The dimensions of these sub-particles consequently define the minimum size of the fracture results. This structure of bonded sub-particles enables the initial particle to break at the location of the highest local loads – due to the failure of the bonds in those areas – with several sub-particle clusters being the result of the fracture, which can again also break locally. In this project, different methods for the generation and calibration of complex-shaped particle conglomerates using bonded particle modeling (BPM) to enable the ability to depict more realistic fracture behavior were evaluated based on the example of filter cake. The method that proved suitable for this purpose and which furthermore allows efficient and realistic simulation of breakage behavior of complex-shaped particles applicable to industrial-sized simulations is presented in this paper.

Keywords: bonded particle model, DEM, filter cake, particle breakage

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Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

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In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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Authors: M. Ashadur Rahman

Abstract:

This study presents the psychological status of basketball and volleyball sportspersons of Bangladesh Krira Shikkha Protifsthan (BKSP) in Bangladesh. The subjects of the study were 34 sportspersons which were 20 Basketball and 14 Volleyball Sportspersons in BKSP. The age ranges of the subjects were 15 to 20 years. The subjects were all male sportspersons and regular students of BKSP. Anxiety control, concentration, confidence, mental preparation, and motivation were selected as psychological variables. Psychological Skill Inventory for Sport (PST) prepared by Mahoney Gabiel, Perking (1987) was used to assess the psychological skills of sportspersons to different sports. Mean standard deviation and independent t-test were used to analyze the data, and level of significance was set at 0.05. Significant differences were not found between psychological status between basketball and volleyball sportspersons of BKSP in Bangladesh.

Keywords: psychological variable, anxiety control, concentration, confidence, mental preparation, motivation

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Authors: Golamhassan Ghahramani Aghdam, Pedram Bavili Tabrizi

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between accounting information and the value of the companies accepted in Tehran Exchange Market. The dependent variable in this research is the value of a company that is measured by price coefficients, and the independent variables are balance sheet information, profit and loss information, cash flow state information, and profit quality characteristics. The profit quality characteristic index is to be related and to be on-time. This research is an application research, and the research population includes all companies that are active in Tehran exchange market. The number of 194 companies was selected by the systematic method as the statistics sample in the period of 2018-2019. The multi-variable linear regression model was used for the hypotheses test. The results show that there is no relationship between accounting information and companies’ value (stock value) that can be due to the lack of efficiency of the investment market and the inability to use the accounting information by investment market activists.

Keywords: accounting information, company value, profit quality characteristics, price coefficient

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Authors: Nastaran Ahmadpour Samani, Shahram Talebi

Abstract:

Added mass is an important quantity in analysis of the motion of a submerged object ,which can be calculated by solving the equation of potential flow around the object . Here, we consider systems in which a square object is submerged in a channel of fluid and moves parallel to the wall. The corresponding added mass at a given distance from the wall d and for the object size s (which is the side of square object) is calculated via lattice Blotzmann simulation . By changing d and s separately, their effect on the added mass is studied systematically. The simulation results reveal that for the systems in which d > 4s, the distance does not influence the added mass any more. The added mass increases when the object approaches the wall and reaches its maximum value as it moves on the wall (d -- > 0). In this case, the added mass is about 73% larger than which of the case d=4s. In addition, it is observed that the added mass increases by increasing of the object size s and vice versa.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann simulation , added mass, square, variable size

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Authors: Harish K. Arya, Kulwant Singh, R. K. Saxena

Abstract:

The heat flow in weldment changes its nature from 2D to 3D with the increase in plate thickness. For welding of thicker plates the heat loss in thickness direction increases the cooling rate of plate. Since the cooling rate changes, the various bead parameters like bead penetration, bead height and bead width also got affected by it. The present study incorporates the effect of variable plate thickness on penetration and bead width. The penetration reduces with increase in plate thickness due to heat loss in thickness direction for same heat input, while bead width increases for thicker plate due to faster cooling.

Keywords: submerged arc welding, plate thickness, bead geometry, cooling rate

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Authors: Harish Kumar Arya, Kulwant Singh, R. K Saxena, Deepti Jaiswal

Abstract:

The heat flow in weldment changes its nature from 2D to 3D with the increase in plate thickness. For welding of thicker plates the heat loss in thickness direction increases the cooling rate of plate. Since the cooling rate changes, the various bead parameters like bead penetration, bead height and bead width also got affected by it. The present study incorporates the effect of variable plate thickness on bead geometry and dilution. The penetration reduces with increase in plate thickness due to heat loss in thickness direction, while bead width and reinforcement increases for thicker plate due to faster cooling.

Keywords: submerged arc welding, plate thickness, bead geometry, cooling rate

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

Abstract:

This paper applies directional marginal productivity model to study the shadow price of emissions by transportation modes in the years of 2011 and 2013 with the aim to provide a reference for policy makers to improve the emission of pollutants. One input variable (i.e., energy consumption), one desirable output variable (i.e., vehicle kilometers traveled) and three undesirable output variables (i.e., carbon dioxide, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides) generated by road transportation modes were used to evaluate directional marginal productivity and directional shadow price for 18 transportation modes. The results show that the directional shadow price (DSP) of SOx is much higher than CO2 and NOx. Nevertheless, the emission of CO2 is the largest among the three kinds of pollutants. To improve the air quality, the government should pay more attention to the emission of CO2 and apply the alternative solution such as promoting public transportation and subsidizing electric vehicles to reduce the use of private vehicles.

Keywords: marginal productivity, road transportation modes, shadow price, undesirable outputs

Procedia PDF Downloads 147