Search results for: bug prediction
1722 Applying Pre-Accident Observational Methods for Accident Assessment and Prediction at Intersections in Norrkoping City in Sweden
Authors: Ghazwan Al-Haji, Adeyemi Adedokun
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Traffic safety at intersections is highly represented, given the fact that accidents occur randomly in time and space. It is necessary to judge whether the intersection is dangerous or not based on short-term observations, and not waiting for many years of assessing historical accident data. There are active and pro-active road infrastructure safety methods for assessing safety at intersections. This study aims to investigate the use of quantitative and qualitative pre-observational methods as the best practice for accident prediction, future black spot identification, and treatment. Historical accident data from STRADA (the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition) was used within Norrkoping city in Sweden. The ADT (Average Daily Traffic), capacity and speed were used to predict accident rates. Locations with the highest accident records and predicted accident counts were identified and hence audited qualitatively by using Street Audit. The results from these quantitative and qualitative methods were analyzed, validated and compared. The paper provides recommendations on the used methods as well as on how to reduce the accident occurrence at the chosen intersections.Keywords: intersections, traffic conflict, traffic safety, street audit, accidents predictions
Procedia PDF Downloads 2261721 Graph Based Traffic Analysis and Delay Prediction Using a Custom Built Dataset
Authors: Gabriele Borg, Alexei Debono, Charlie Abela
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There on a constant rise in the availability of high volumes of data gathered from multiple sources, resulting in an abundance of unprocessed information that can be used to monitor patterns and trends in user behaviour. Similarly, year after year, Malta is also constantly experiencing ongoing population growth and an increase in mobilization demand. This research takes advantage of data which is continuously being sourced and converting it into useful information related to the traffic problem on the Maltese roads. The scope of this paper is to provide a methodology to create a custom dataset (MalTra - Malta Traffic) compiled from multiple participants from various locations across the island to identify the most common routes taken to expose the main areas of activity. This use of big data is seen being used in various technologies and is referred to as ITSs (Intelligent Transportation Systems), which has been concluded that there is significant potential in utilising such sources of data on a nationwide scale. Furthermore, a series of traffic prediction graph neural network models are conducted to compare MalTra to large-scale traffic datasets.Keywords: graph neural networks, traffic management, big data, mobile data patterns
Procedia PDF Downloads 1201720 Physically Informed Kernels for Wave Loading Prediction
Authors: Daniel James Pitchforth, Timothy James Rogers, Ulf Tyge Tygesen, Elizabeth Jane Cross
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Wave loading is a primary cause of fatigue within offshore structures and its quantification presents a challenging and important subtask within the SHM framework. The accurate representation of physics in such environments is difficult, however, driving the development of data-driven techniques in recent years. Within many industrial applications, empirical laws remain the preferred method of wave loading prediction due to their low computational cost and ease of implementation. This paper aims to develop an approach that combines data-driven Gaussian process models with physical empirical solutions for wave loading, including Morison’s Equation. The aim here is to incorporate physics directly into the covariance function (kernel) of the Gaussian process, enforcing derived behaviors whilst still allowing enough flexibility to account for phenomena such as vortex shedding, which may not be represented within the empirical laws. The combined approach has a number of advantages, including improved performance over either component used independently and interpretable hyperparameters.Keywords: offshore structures, Gaussian processes, Physics informed machine learning, Kernel design
Procedia PDF Downloads 1851719 Experimental Study on the Creep Characteristics of FRC Base for Composite Pavement System
Authors: Woo-Tai Jung, Sung-Yong Choi, Young-Hwan Park
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The composite pavement system considered in this paper is composed of a functional surface layer, a fiber reinforced asphalt middle layer and a fiber reinforced lean concrete base layer. The mix design of the fiber reinforced lean concrete corresponds to the mix composition of conventional lean concrete but reinforced by fibers. The quasi-absence of research on the durability or long-term performances (fatigue, creep, etc.) of such mix design stresses the necessity to evaluate experimentally the long-term characteristics of this layer composition. This study tests the creep characteristics as one of the long-term characteristics of the fiber reinforced lean concrete layer for composite pavement using a new creep device. The test results reveal that the lean concrete mixed with fiber reinforcement and fly ash develops smaller creep than the conventional lean concrete. The results of the application of the CEB-FIP prediction equation indicate that a modified creep prediction equation should be developed to fit with the new mix design of the layer.Keywords: creep, lean concrete, pavement, fiber reinforced concrete, base
Procedia PDF Downloads 5151718 Establishing a Surrogate Approach to Assess the Exposure Concentrations during Coating Process
Authors: Shan-Hong Ying, Ying-Fang Wang
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A surrogate approach was deployed for assessing exposures of multiple chemicals at the selected working area of coating processes and applied to assess the exposure concentration of similar exposed groups using the same chemicals but different formula ratios. For the selected area, 6 to 12 portable photoionization detector (PID) were placed uniformly in its workplace to measure its total VOCs concentrations (CT-VOCs) for 6 randomly selected workshifts. Simultaneously, one sampling strain was placed beside one of these portable PIDs, and the collected air sample was analyzed for individual concentration (CVOCi) of 5 VOCs (xylene, butanone, toluene, butyl acetate, and dimethylformamide). Predictive models were established by relating the CT-VOCs to CVOCi of each individual compound via simple regression analysis. The established predictive models were employed to predict each CVOCi based on the measured CT-VOC for each the similar working area using the same portable PID. Results show that predictive models obtained from simple linear regression analyses were found with an R2 = 0.83~0.99 indicating that CT-VOCs were adequate for predicting CVOCi. In order to verify the validity of the exposure prediction model, the sampling analysis of the above chemical substances was further carried out and the correlation between the measured value (Cm) and the predicted value (Cp) was analyzed. It was found that there is a good correction between the predicted value and measured value of each measured chemical substance (R2=0.83~0.98). Therefore, the surrogate approach could be assessed the exposure concentration of similar exposed groups using the same chemicals but different formula ratios. However, it is recommended to establish the prediction model between the chemical substances belonging to each coater and the direct-reading PID, which is more representative of reality exposure situation and more accurately to estimate the long-term exposure concentration of operators.Keywords: exposure assessment, exposure prediction model, surrogate approach, TVOC
Procedia PDF Downloads 1421717 Open Forging of Cylindrical Blanks Subjected to Lateral Instability
Authors: A. H. Elkholy, D. M. Almutairi
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The successful and efficient execution of a forging process is dependent upon the correct analysis of loading and metal flow of blanks. This paper investigates the Upper Bound Technique (UBT) and its application in the analysis of open forging process when a possibility of blank bulging exists. The UBT is one of the energy rate minimization methods for the solution of metal forming process based on the upper bound theorem. In this regards, the kinematically admissible velocity field is obtained by minimizing the total forging energy rate. A computer program is developed in this research to implement the UBT. The significant advantages of this method is the speed of execution while maintaining a fairly high degree of accuracy and the wide prediction capability. The information from this analysis is useful for the design of forging processes and dies. Results for the prediction of forging loads and stresses, metal flow and surface profiles with the assured benefits in terms of press selection and blank preform design are outlined in some detail. The obtained predictions are ready for comparison with both laboratory and industrial results.Keywords: forging, upper bound technique, metal forming, forging energy, forging die/platen
Procedia PDF Downloads 2901716 Urban Big Data: An Experimental Approach to Building-Value Estimation Using Web-Based Data
Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin
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Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.Keywords: apartment complex, big data, life-cycle building value analysis, machine learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 3681715 Machine Learning Assisted Prediction of Sintered Density of Binary W(MO) Alloys
Authors: Hexiong Liu
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Powder metallurgy is the optimal method for the consolidation and preparation of W(Mo) alloys, which exhibit excellent application prospects at high temperatures. The properties of W(Mo) alloys are closely related to the sintered density. However, controlling the sintered density and porosity of these alloys is still challenging. In the past, the regulation methods mainly focused on time-consuming and costly trial-and-error experiments. In this study, the sintering data for more than a dozen W(Mo) alloys constituted a small-scale dataset, including both solid and liquid phases of sintering. Furthermore, simple descriptors were used to predict the sintered density of W(Mo) alloys based on the descriptor selection strategy and machine learning method (ML), where the ML algorithm included the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression, k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), random forest (RF), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP). The results showed that the interpretable descriptors extracted by our proposed selection strategy and the MLP neural network achieved a high prediction accuracy (R>0.950). By further predicting the sintered density of W(Mo) alloys using different sintering processes, the error between the predicted and experimental values was less than 0.063, confirming the application potential of the model.Keywords: sintered density, machine learning, interpretable descriptors, W(Mo) alloy
Procedia PDF Downloads 751714 Prospectivity Mapping of Orogenic Lode Gold Deposits Using Fuzzy Models: A Case Study of Saqqez Area, Northwestern Iran
Authors: Fanous Mohammadi, Majid H. Tangestani, Mohammad H. Tayebi
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This research aims to evaluate and compare Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based fuzzy models for producing orogenic gold prospectivity maps in the Saqqez area, NW of Iran. Gold occurrences are hosted in sericite schist and mafic to felsic meta-volcanic rocks in this area and are associated with hydrothermal alterations that extend over ductile to brittle shear zones. The predictor maps, which represent the Pre-(Source/Trigger/Pathway), syn-(deposition/physical/chemical traps) and post-mineralization (preservation/distribution of indicator minerals) subsystems for gold mineralization, were generated using empirical understandings of the specifications of known orogenic gold deposits and gold mineral systems and were then pre-processed and integrated to produce mineral prospectivity maps. Five fuzzy logic operators, including AND, OR, Fuzzy Algebraic Product (FAP), Fuzzy Algebraic Sum (FAS), and GAMMA, were applied to the predictor maps in order to find the most efficient prediction model. Prediction-Area (P-A) plots and field observations were used to assess and evaluate the accuracy of prediction models. Mineral prospectivity maps generated by AND, OR, FAP, and FAS operators were inaccurate and, therefore, unable to pinpoint the exact location of discovered gold occurrences. The GAMMA operator, on the other hand, produced acceptable results and identified potentially economic target sites. The P-A plot revealed that 68 percent of known orogenic gold deposits are found in high and very high potential regions. The GAMMA operator was shown to be useful in predicting and defining cost-effective target sites for orogenic gold deposits, as well as optimizing mineral deposit exploitation.Keywords: mineral prospectivity mapping, fuzzy logic, GIS, orogenic gold deposit, Saqqez, Iran
Procedia PDF Downloads 1161713 Long Short-Term Memory Based Model for Modeling Nicotine Consumption Using an Electronic Cigarette and Internet of Things Devices
Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi
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In this paper, we want to determine whether the accurate prediction of nicotine concentration can be obtained by using a network of smart objects and an e-cigarette. The approach consists of, first, the recognition of factors influencing smoking cessation such as physical activity recognition and participant’s behaviors (using both smartphone and smartwatch), then the prediction of the configuration of the e-cigarette (in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance of e-cigarette). The study uses a network of commonly connected objects; a smartwatch, a smartphone, and an e-cigarette transported by the participants during an uncontrolled experiment. The data obtained from sensors carried in the three devices were trained by a Long short-term memory algorithm (LSTM). Results show that our LSTM-based model allows predicting the configuration of the e-cigarette in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance with a root mean square error percentage of 12.9%, 9.15%, and 11.84%, respectively. This study can help to better control consumption of nicotine and offer an intelligent configuration of the e-cigarette to users.Keywords: Iot, activity recognition, automatic classification, unconstrained environment
Procedia PDF Downloads 2171712 Influence of Flexible Plate's Contour on Dynamic Behavior of High Speed Flexible Coupling of Combat Aircraft
Authors: Dineshsingh Thakur, S. Nagesh, J. Basha
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A lightweight High Speed Flexible Coupling (HSFC) is used to connect the Engine Gear Box (EGB) with an Accessory Gear Box (AGB) of the combat aircraft. The HSFC transmits the power at high speeds ranging from 10000 to 18000 rpm from the EGB to AGB. The HSFC is also accommodates larger misalignments resulting from thermal expansion of the aircraft engine and mounting arrangement. The HSFC has the series of metallic contoured annular thin cross-sectioned flexible plates to accommodate the misalignments. The flexible plates are accommodating the misalignment by the elastic material flexure. As the HSFC operates at higher speed, the flexural and axial resonance frequencies are to be kept away from the operating speed and proper prediction is required to prevent failure in the transmission line of a single engine fighter aircraft. To study the influence of flexible plate’s contour on the lateral critical speed (LCS) of HSFC, a mathematical model of HSFC as a elven rotor system is developed. The flexible plate being the bending member of the system, its bending stiffness which results from the contoured governs the LCS. Using transfer matrix method, Influence of various flexible plate contours on critical speed is analyzed. In the above analysis, the support bearing flexibility on critical speed prediction is also considered. Based on the study, a model is built with the optimum contour of flexible plate, for validation by experimental modal analysis. A good correlation between the theoretical prediction and model behavior is observed. From the study, it is found that the flexible plate’s contour is playing vital role in modification of system’s dynamic behavior and the present model can be extended for the development of similar type of flexible couplings for its computational simplicity and reliability.Keywords: flexible rotor, critical speed, experimental modal analysis, high speed flexible coupling (HSFC), misalignment
Procedia PDF Downloads 2051711 The Power House of Mind: Determination of Action
Authors: Sheetla Prasad
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The focus issue of this article is to determine the mechanism of mind with geometrical analysis of human face. Research paradigm has been designed for study of spatial dynamic of face and it was found that different shapes of face have their own function for determine the action of mind. The functional ratio (FR) of face has determined the behaviour operation of human beings. It is not based on the formulistic approach of prediction but scientific dogmatism and mathematical analysis is the root of the prediction of behaviour. For analysis, formulae were developed and standardized. It was found that human psyche is designed in three forms; manipulated, manifested and real psyche. Functional output of the psyche has been determined by degree of energy flow in the psyche and reserve energy for future. Face is the recipient and transmitter of energy but distribution and control is the possible by mind. Mind directs behaviour. FR indicates that the face is a power house of energy and as per its geometrical domain force of behaviours has been designed and actions are possible in the nature of individual. The impact factor of this study is the promotion of human capital for job fitness objective and minimization of criminalization in society.Keywords: functional ratio, manipulated psyche, manifested psyche, real psyche
Procedia PDF Downloads 4481710 An Empirical Study to Predict Myocardial Infarction Using K-Means and Hierarchical Clustering
Authors: Md. Minhazul Islam, Shah Ashisul Abed Nipun, Majharul Islam, Md. Abdur Rakib Rahat, Jonayet Miah, Salsavil Kayyum, Anwar Shadaab, Faiz Al Faisal
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The target of this research is to predict Myocardial Infarction using unsupervised Machine Learning algorithms. Myocardial Infarction Prediction related to heart disease is a challenging factor faced by doctors & hospitals. In this prediction, accuracy of the heart disease plays a vital role. From this concern, the authors have analyzed on a myocardial dataset to predict myocardial infarction using some popular Machine Learning algorithms K-Means and Hierarchical Clustering. This research includes a collection of data and the classification of data using Machine Learning Algorithms. The authors collected 345 instances along with 26 attributes from different hospitals in Bangladesh. This data have been collected from patients suffering from myocardial infarction along with other symptoms. This model would be able to find and mine hidden facts from historical Myocardial Infarction cases. The aim of this study is to analyze the accuracy level to predict Myocardial Infarction by using Machine Learning techniques.Keywords: Machine Learning, K-means, Hierarchical Clustering, Myocardial Infarction, Heart Disease
Procedia PDF Downloads 1991709 Deepnic, A Method to Transform Each Variable into Image for Deep Learning
Authors: Nguyen J. M., Lucas G., Brunner M., Ruan S., Antonioli D.
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Deep learning based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) is a very powerful technique for classifying information from an image. We propose a new method, DeepNic, to transform each variable of a tabular dataset into an image where each pixel represents a set of conditions that allow the variable to make an error-free prediction. The contrast of each pixel is proportional to its prediction performance and the color of each pixel corresponds to a sub-family of NICs. NICs are probabilities that depend on the number of inputs to each neuron and the range of coefficients of the inputs. Each variable can therefore be expressed as a function of a matrix of 2 vectors corresponding to an image whose pixels express predictive capabilities. Our objective is to transform each variable of tabular data into images into an image that can be analysed by CNNs, unlike other methods which use all the variables to construct an image. We analyse the NIC information of each variable and express it as a function of the number of neurons and the range of coefficients used. The predictive value and the category of the NIC are expressed by the contrast and the color of the pixel. We have developed a pipeline to implement this technology and have successfully applied it to genomic expressions on an Affymetrix chip.Keywords: tabular data, deep learning, perfect trees, NICS
Procedia PDF Downloads 821708 Remote Sensing-Based Prediction of Asymptomatic Rice Blast Disease Using Hyperspectral Spectroradiometry and Spectral Sensitivity Analysis
Authors: Selvaprakash Ramalingam, Rabi N. Sahoo, Dharmendra Saraswat, A. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan, Joydeep Mukerjee, Viswanathan Chinnasamy, K. K. Chaturvedi, Sanjeev Kumar
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Rice is one of the most important staple food crops in the world. Among the various diseases that affect rice crops, rice blast is particularly significant, causing crop yield and economic losses. While the plant has defense mechanisms in place, such as chemical indicators (proteins, salicylic acid, jasmonic acid, ethylene, and azelaic acid) and resistance genes in certain varieties that can protect against diseases, susceptible varieties remain vulnerable to these fungal diseases. Early prediction of rice blast (RB) disease is crucial, but conventional techniques for early prediction are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Hyperspectral remote sensing techniques hold the potential to predict RB disease at its asymptomatic stage. In this study, we aimed to demonstrate the prediction of RB disease at the asymptomatic stage using non-imaging hyperspectral ASD spectroradiometer under controlled laboratory conditions. We applied statistical spectral discrimination theory to identify unknown spectra of M. Oryzae, the fungus responsible for rice blast disease. The infrared (IR) region was found to be significantly affected by RB disease. These changes may result in alterations in the absorption, reflection, or emission of infrared radiation by the affected plant tissues. Our research revealed that the protein spectrum in the IR region is impacted by RB disease. In our study, we identified strong correlations in the region (Amide group - I) around X 1064 nm and Y 1300 nm with the Lambda / Lambda derived spectra methods for protein detection. During the stages when the disease is developing, typically from day 3 to day 5, the plant's defense mechanisms are not as effective. This is especially true for the PB-1 variety of rice, which is highly susceptible to rice blast disease. Consequently, the proteins in the plant are adversely affected during this critical time. The spectral contour plot reveals the highly correlated spectral regions 1064 nm and Y 1300 nm associated with RB disease infection. Based on these spectral sensitivities, we developed new spectral disease indices for predicting different stages of disease emergence. The goal of this research is to lay the foundation for future UAV and satellite-based studies aimed at long-term monitoring of RB disease.Keywords: rice blast, asymptomatic stage, spectral sensitivity, IR
Procedia PDF Downloads 801707 Influence Analysis of Macroeconomic Parameters on Real Estate Price Variation in Taipei, Taiwan
Authors: Li Li, Kai-Hsuan Chu
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It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.Keywords: real estate price, least-square, grey correlation, macroeconomics
Procedia PDF Downloads 1921706 A Quick Prediction for Shear Behaviour of RC Membrane Elements by Fixed-Angle Softened Truss Model with Tension-Stiffening
Authors: X. Wang, J. S. Kuang
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The Fixed-angle Softened Truss Model with Tension-stiffening (FASTMT) has a superior performance in predicting the shear behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) membrane elements, especially for the post-cracking behaviour. Nevertheless, massive computational work is inevitable due to the multiple transcendental equations involved in the stress-strain relationship. In this paper, an iterative root-finding technique is introduced to FASTMT for solving quickly the transcendental equations of the tension-stiffening effect of RC membrane elements. This fast FASTMT, which performs in MATLAB, uses the bisection method to calculate the tensile stress of the membranes. By adopting the simplification, the elapsed time of each loop is reduced significantly and the transcendental equations can be solved accurately. Owing to the high efficiency and good accuracy as compared with FASTMT, the fast FASTMT can be further applied in quick prediction of shear behaviour of complex large-scale RC structures.Keywords: bisection method, FASTMT, iterative root-finding technique, reinforced concrete membrane
Procedia PDF Downloads 2651705 Prediction Compressive Strength of Self-Compacting Concrete Containing Fly Ash Using Fuzzy Logic Inference System
Authors: Belalia Douma Omar, Bakhta Boukhatem, Mohamed Ghrici
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Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, super plasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.Keywords: self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic
Procedia PDF Downloads 3281704 A Comparison between the Results of Hormuz Strait Wave Simulations Using WAVEWATCH-III and MIKE21-SW and Satellite Altimetry Observations
Authors: Fatemeh Sadat Sharifi
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In the present study, the capabilities of WAVEWATCH-III and MIKE21-SW for predicting the characteristics of wind waves in Hormuz Strait are evaluated. The GFS wind data (Global Forecast System) were derived. The bathymetry of gride with 2 arc-minute resolution, also were extracted from the ETOPO1. WAVEWATCH-III findings illustrate more valid prediction of wave features comparing to the MIKE-21 SW in deep water. Apparently, in shallow area, the MIKE-21 provides more uniformities with altimetry measurements. This may be due to the merits of the unstructured grid which are used in MIKE-21, leading to better representations of the coastal area. The findings on the direction of waves generated by wind in the modeling area indicate that in some regions, despite the increase in wind speed, significant wave height stays nearly unchanged. This is fundamental because of swift changes in wind track over the Strait of Hormuz. After discussing wind-induced waves in the region, the impact of instability of the surface layer on wave growth has been considered. For this purpose, the average monthly mean air temperature has been used. The results in cold months, when the surface layer is unstable, indicates an acceptable increase in the accuracy of prediction of the indicator wave height.Keywords: numerical modeling, WAVEWATCH-III, Strait of Hormuz, MIKE21-SW
Procedia PDF Downloads 2021703 Comparison of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Random Forest Regression in Predicting Forced Expiratory Volume in One Second
Authors: P. V. Pramila , V. Mahesh
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Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients esulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF 25, PEF,FEF 25-75, FEF50, and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF 25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects). It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.Keywords: FEV, multivariate adaptive regression splines pulmonary function test, random forest
Procedia PDF Downloads 3051702 A Contemporary Advertising Strategy on Social Networking Sites
Authors: M. S. Aparna, Pushparaj Shetty D.
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Nowadays social networking sites have become so popular that the producers or the sellers look for these sites as one of the best options to target the right audience to market their products. There are several tools available to monitor or analyze the social networks. Our task is to identify the right community web pages and find out the behavior analysis of the members by using these tools and formulate an appropriate strategy to market the products or services to achieve the set goals. The advertising becomes more effective when the information of the product/ services come from a known source. The strategy explores great buying influence in the audience on referral marketing. Our methodology proceeds with critical budget analysis and promotes viral influence propagation. In this context, we encompass the vital bits of budget evaluation such as the number of optimal seed nodes or primary influential users activated onset, an estimate coverage spread of nodes and maximum influence propagating distance from an initial seed to an end node. Our proposal for Buyer Prediction mathematical model arises from the urge to perform complex analysis when the probability density estimates of reliable factors are not known or difficult to calculate. Order Statistics and Buyer Prediction mapping function guarantee the selection of optimal influential users at each level. We exercise an efficient tactics of practicing community pages and user behavior to determine the product enthusiasts on social networks. Our approach is promising and should be an elementary choice when there is little or no prior knowledge on the distribution of potential buyers on social networks. In this strategy, product news propagates to influential users on or surrounding networks. By applying the same technique, a user can search friends who are capable to advise better or give referrals, if a product interests him.Keywords: viral marketing, social network analysis, community web pages, buyer prediction, influence propagation, budget constraints
Procedia PDF Downloads 2551701 The Psychosis Prodrome: Biomarkers of the Glutamatergic System and Their Potential Role in Prediction and Treatment
Authors: Peter David Reiss
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The concept of the psychosis prodrome has allowed for the identification of adolescent and young adult patients who have a significantly elevated risk of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders. A number of different interventions have been tested in order to prevent or delay progression of symptoms. To date, there has been no consistent meta-analytical evidence to support efficacy of antipsychotic treatment for patients in the prodromal state, and their use remains therefore inconclusive. Although antipsychotics may manage symptoms transiently, they have not been found to prevent or delay onset of psychotic disorders. Furthermore, pharmacological intervention in high-risk individuals remains controversial, because of the antipsychotic side effect profile in a population in which only about 20 to 35 percent will eventually convert to psychosis over a two-year period, with even after two years conversion rates not exceeding 30 to 40 percent. This general estimate is additionally problematic, in that it ignores the fact that there is significant variation in individual risk among clinical high-risk cases. The current lack of reliable tests for at-risk patients makes it difficult to justify individual treatment decisions. Preventive treatment should ideally be dictated by an individual’s risk while minimizing potentially harmful medication exposure. This requires more accurate predictive assessments by using valid and accessible prognostic markers. The following will compare prediction and risk modification potential of behavioral biomarkers such as disturbances of basic sense of self and emotion awareness, neurocognitive biomarkers such as attention, working and declarative memory, and neurophysiological biomarkers such as glutamatergic abnormalities and NMDA receptor dysfunction. Identification of robust biomarkers could therefore not only provide more reliable means of psychosis prediction, but also help test and develop new clinical interventions targeted at the prodromal state.Keywords: at-risk mental state, biomarkers, glutamatergic system, NMDA receptor, psychosis prodrome, schizophrenia
Procedia PDF Downloads 1901700 Prediction of the Crustal Deformation of Volcán - Nevado Del RUíz in the Year 2020 Using Tropomi Tropospheric Information, Dinsar Technique, and Neural Networks
Authors: Juan Sebastián Hernández
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The Nevado del Ruíz volcano, located between the limits of the Departments of Caldas and Tolima in Colombia, presented an unstable behaviour in the course of the year 2020, this volcanic activity led to secondary effects on the crust, which is why the prediction of deformations becomes the task of geoscientists. In the course of this article, the use of tropospheric variables such as evapotranspiration, UV aerosol index, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, methane, surface temperature, among others, is used to train a set of neural networks that can predict the behaviour of the resulting phase of an unrolled interferogram with the DInSAR technique, whose main objective is to identify and characterise the behaviour of the crust based on the environmental conditions. For this purpose, variables were collected, a generalised linear model was created, and a set of neural networks was created. After the training of the network, validation was carried out with the test data, giving an MSE of 0.17598 and an associated r-squared of approximately 0.88454. The resulting model provided a dataset with good thematic accuracy, reflecting the behaviour of the volcano in 2020, given a set of environmental characteristics.Keywords: crustal deformation, Tropomi, neural networks (ANN), volcanic activity, DInSAR
Procedia PDF Downloads 971699 Strategies in Customer Relationship Management and Customers’ Behavior in Making Decision on Buying Car Insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok
Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased, Paweena Sribunrueng
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The objective of this study is to investigate strategies in customer relationship management and customers’ behavior in making decision on buying car insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok. Subjects in this study included 400 customers with the age over 20 years old to complete questionnaires. The data were analyzed by arithmetic mean and multiple regressions. The results revealed that the customers’ opinions on the strategies in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, customer feedback, customer follow-up, useful service suggestions, customer communication, and service channels were in moderate level but on the customer retention was in high level. Moreover, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, and customer feedback had an influence on customers’ buying decision on buying car insurance. The two factors above can be used for the prediction at the rate of 34%. In addition, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer retention, customer feedback, and useful service suggestions had an influence on the customers’ buying decision on period of being customers. The three factors could be used for the prediction at the rate of 45%.Keywords: strategies, customer relationship management, behavior in buying decision, car insurance
Procedia PDF Downloads 3961698 Using Simulation Modeling Approach to Predict USMLE Steps 1 and 2 Performances
Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels
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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.Keywords: prediction model, sensitivity analysis, simulation method, USMLE
Procedia PDF Downloads 3351697 Exploring Syntactic and Semantic Features for Text-Based Authorship Attribution
Authors: Haiyan Wu, Ying Liu, Shaoyun Shi
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Authorship attribution is to extract features to identify authors of anonymous documents. Many previous works on authorship attribution focus on statistical style features (e.g., sentence/word length), content features (e.g., frequent words, n-grams). Modeling these features by regression or some transparent machine learning methods gives a portrait of the authors' writing style. But these methods do not capture the syntactic (e.g., dependency relationship) or semantic (e.g., topics) information. In recent years, some researchers model syntactic trees or latent semantic information by neural networks. However, few works take them together. Besides, predictions by neural networks are difficult to explain, which is vital in authorship attribution tasks. In this paper, we not only utilize the statistical style and content features but also take advantage of both syntactic and semantic features. Different from an end-to-end neural model, feature selection and prediction are two steps in our method. An attentive n-gram network is utilized to select useful features, and logistic regression is applied to give prediction and understandable representation of writing style. Experiments show that our extracted features can improve the state-of-the-art methods on three benchmark datasets.Keywords: authorship attribution, attention mechanism, syntactic feature, feature extraction
Procedia PDF Downloads 1311696 Application of Multilinear Regression Analysis for Prediction of Synthetic Shear Wave Velocity Logs in Upper Assam Basin
Authors: Triveni Gogoi, Rima Chatterjee
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Shear wave velocity (Vs) estimation is an important approach in the seismic exploration and characterization of a hydrocarbon reservoir. There are varying methods for prediction of S-wave velocity, if recorded S-wave log is not available. But all the available methods for Vs prediction are empirical mathematical models. Shear wave velocity can be estimated using P-wave velocity by applying Castagna’s equation, which is the most common approach. The constants used in Castagna’s equation vary for different lithologies and geological set-ups. In this study, multiple regression analysis has been used for estimation of S-wave velocity. The EMERGE module from Hampson-Russel software has been used here for generation of S-wave log. Both single attribute and multi attributes analysis have been carried out for generation of synthetic S-wave log in Upper Assam basin. Upper Assam basin situated in North Eastern India is one of the most important petroleum provinces of India. The present study was carried out using four wells of the study area. Out of these wells, S-wave velocity was available for three wells. The main objective of the present study is a prediction of shear wave velocities for wells where S-wave velocity information is not available. The three wells having S-wave velocity were first used to test the reliability of the method and the generated S-wave log was compared with actual S-wave log. Single attribute analysis has been carried out for these three wells within the depth range 1700-2100m, which corresponds to Barail group of Oligocene age. The Barail Group is the main target zone in this study, which is the primary producing reservoir of the basin. A system generated list of attributes with varying degrees of correlation appeared and the attribute with the highest correlation was concerned for the single attribute analysis. Crossplot between the attributes shows the variation of points from line of best fit. The final result of the analysis was compared with the available S-wave log, which shows a good visual fit with a correlation of 72%. Next multi-attribute analysis has been carried out for the same data using all the wells within the same analysis window. A high correlation of 85% has been observed between the output log from the analysis and the recorded S-wave. The almost perfect fit between the synthetic S-wave and the recorded S-wave log validates the reliability of the method. For further authentication, the generated S-wave data from the wells have been tied to the seismic and correlated them. Synthetic share wave log has been generated for the well M2 where S-wave is not available and it shows a good correlation with the seismic. Neutron porosity, density, AI and P-wave velocity are proved to be the most significant variables in this statistical method for S-wave generation. Multilinear regression method thus can be considered as a reliable technique for generation of shear wave velocity log in this study.Keywords: Castagna's equation, multi linear regression, multi attribute analysis, shear wave logs
Procedia PDF Downloads 2201695 Survival Analysis Based Delivery Time Estimates for Display FAB
Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek
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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model
Procedia PDF Downloads 5341694 Crack Width Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Members under Shrinkage Effect by Pseudo-Discrete Crack Model
Authors: F. J. Ma, A. K. H. Kwan
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Crack caused by shrinkage movement of concrete is a serious problem especially when restraint is provided. It may cause severe serviceability and durability problems. The existing prediction methods for crack width of concrete due to shrinkage movement are mainly numerical methods under simplified circumstances, which do not agree with each other. To get a more unified prediction method applicable to more sophisticated circumstances, finite element crack width analysis for shrinkage effect should be developed. However, no existing finite element analysis can be carried out to predict the crack width of concrete due to shrinkage movement because of unsolved reasons of conventional finite element analysis. In this paper, crack width analysis implemented by finite element analysis is presented with pseudo-discrete crack model, which combines traditional smeared crack model and newly proposed crack queuing algorithm. The proposed pseudo-discrete crack model is capable of simulating separate and single crack without adopting discrete crack element. And the improved finite element analysis can successfully simulate the stress redistribution when concrete is cracked, which is crucial for predicting crack width, crack spacing and crack number.Keywords: crack queuing algorithm, crack width analysis, finite element analysis, shrinkage effect
Procedia PDF Downloads 4111693 Early Prediction of Diseases in a Cow for Cattle Industry
Authors: Ghufran Ahmed, Muhammad Osama Siddiqui, Shahbaz Siddiqui, Rauf Ahmad Shams Malick, Faisal Khan, Mubashir Khan
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In this paper, a machine learning-based approach for early prediction of diseases in cows is proposed. Different ML algos are applied to extract useful patterns from the available dataset. Technology has changed today’s world in every aspect of life. Similarly, advanced technologies have been developed in livestock and dairy farming to monitor dairy cows in various aspects. Dairy cattle monitoring is crucial as it plays a significant role in milk production around the globe. Moreover, it has become necessary for farmers to adopt the latest early prediction technologies as the food demand is increasing with population growth. This highlight the importance of state-ofthe-art technologies in analyzing how important technology is in analyzing dairy cows’ activities. It is not easy to predict the activities of a large number of cows on the farm, so, the system has made it very convenient for the farmers., as it provides all the solutions under one roof. The cattle industry’s productivity is boosted as the early diagnosis of any disease on a cattle farm is detected and hence it is treated early. It is done on behalf of the machine learning output received. The learning models are already set which interpret the data collected in a centralized system. Basically, we will run different algorithms on behalf of the data set received to analyze milk quality, and track cows’ health, location, and safety. This deep learning algorithm draws patterns from the data, which makes it easier for farmers to study any animal’s behavioral changes. With the emergence of machine learning algorithms and the Internet of Things, accurate tracking of animals is possible as the rate of error is minimized. As a result, milk productivity is increased. IoT with ML capability has given a new phase to the cattle farming industry by increasing the yield in the most cost-effective and time-saving manner.Keywords: IoT, machine learning, health care, dairy cows
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