Search results for: decision making units (DMUs)

Authors: G. V. Siva Krishna Rao, B. Srinivasa Rao

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The main aim of the paper is to implement a technique using distributed generation in distribution systems to reduce the distribution system losses and to improve voltage profiles. The fuzzy logic technique is used to select the proper location of DG and an analytical method is proposed to calculate the size of DG unit at any power factor. The optimal sizes of DG units are compared with optimal sizes obtained using the genetic algorithm. The suggested method is programmed under Matlab software and is tested on IEEE 33 bus system and the results are presented.

Keywords: DG Units, sizing of DG units, analytical methods, optimum size

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama

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The study employs Monte Carlo method for simulation of rented housing in Mashhad second largest city in Iran. A total number of 334 rental residential units in Mashhad, including both apartments and houses (villa), were randomly selected from advertisements placed in Khorasan Newspapers during the months of July and August of 2015. In order to simulate the monthly rent price, the rent index was calculated through combining the mortgage and the rent price. In the next step, the relation between the variables of the floor area and that of the number of bedrooms for each unit, in both apartments and houses(villa), was calculated through multivariate regression using SPSS and was coded in XML. The initial model was called using simulation button in SPSS and was simulated using triangular and binominal algorithms. The findings revealed that the average simulated rental index was 548.5$ per month. Calculating the sensitivity of rental index to a number of bedrooms we found that firstly, 97% of units have three bedrooms, and secondly as the number of bedrooms increases from one to three, for the rent price of less than 200$, the percentage of units having one bedroom decreases from 10% to 0. Contrariwise, for units with the rent price of more than 571.4$, the percentage of bedrooms increases from 37% to 48%. In the light of these findings, it becomes clear that planning to build rental residential units, overseeing the rent prices, and granting subsidies to rental residential units, for apartments with two bedrooms, present a felicitous policy for regulating residential units in Mashhad.

Keywords: Mashhad, Monte Carlo, simulation, rent price, residential unit

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Authors: Maria M. Calheiros, Carla Silva, Eunice Magalhães

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Professionals working in child protection services (CPS) need to have common and clear criteria to identify cases of maltreatment and to differentiate levels of severity in order to determine when CPS intervention is required, its nature and urgency, and, in most countries, the service that will be in charge of the case (community or specialized CPS). Actually, decision-making process is complex in CPS, and, for that reason, such criteria are particularly important for who significantly contribute to that decision-making in child maltreatment cases. The main objective of this presentation is to describe the Maltreatment Severity Assessment Questionnaire (MSQ), specifically designed to be used by professionals in the CPS, which adopts a multidimensional approach and uses a scale of severity within subtypes. Specifically, we aim to provide evidence of validity and reliability of this tool, in order to improve the quality and validity of assessment processes and, consequently, the decision making in CPS. The total sample was composed of 1000 children and/or adolescents (51.1% boys), aged between 0 and 18 years old (M = 9.47; DP = 4.51). All the participants were referred to official institutions of the children and youth protective system. Children and adolescents maltreatment (abuse, neglect experiences and sexual abuse) were assessed with 21 items of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire (MSQ), by professionals of CPS. Each item (sub-type) was composed of four descriptors of increasing severity. Professionals rated the level of severity, using a 4-point scale (1= minimally severe; 2= moderately severe; 3= highly severe; 4= extremely severe). The construct validity of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire was assessed with a holdout method, performing an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) followed by a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The final solution comprised 18 items organized in three factors 47.3% of variance explained. ‘Physical neglect’ (eight items) was defined by parental omissions concerning the insurance and monitoring of the child’s physical well-being and health, namely in terms of clothing, hygiene, housing conditions and contextual environmental security. ‘Physical and Psychological Abuse’ (four items) described abusive physical and psychological actions, namely, coercive/punitive disciplinary methods, physically violent methods or verbal interactions that offend and denigrate the child, with the potential to disrupt psychological attributes (e.g., self-esteem). ‘Psychological neglect’ (six items) involved omissions related to children emotional development, mental health monitoring, school attendance, development needs, as well as inappropriate relationship patterns with attachment figures. Results indicated a good reliability of all the factors. The assessment of child maltreatment cases with MSQ could have a set of practical and research implications: a) It is a valid and reliable multidimensional instrument to measure child maltreatment, b) It is an instrument integrating the co-occurrence of various types of maltreatment and a within-subtypes scale of severity; c) Specifically designed for professionals, it may assist them in decision-making processes; d) More than using case file reports to evaluate maltreatment experiences, researchers could guide more appropriately their research about determinants and consequences of maltreatment.

Keywords: assessment, maltreatment, children and youth, decision-making

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Authors: Ali Zaimi

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Citizen participation in local government is an opportunity given to citizens and government to increase communication between them, create public support for local government plans and most important grow public trust in government. Also, the citizens’ involvement in the political process is an important part of democracy. This study aims to define the strategies for increasing citizen participation in local governance and concentrated in two important mechanisms such as participatory budget and public policy councils. Three strategies that promote more effective citizen involvement in local governance are understanding and using formal institutions of power, collaboration of citizens’ groups and governments officials to jointly formulate programs plans, electing and appointing local officials. A unique aspect of citizen participation to operate effectively is the transparency of government and the inclusion of actors into decision-making. The citizen engagement in local governance enhances accountability and problem solving, promote more inclusive and cohesive communities and enlarge the quality and quantity of initiatives made by communities.

Keywords: accountability, citizen participation, democracy, government

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Authors: Adandé Belarmain Fandohan

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Climate change has become a major concern globally, particularly in rural communities that have to find rapid coping solutions. Several vulnerability assessment approaches have been developed in the last decades. This comes along with a higher risk for different methods to result in different conclusions, thereby making comparisons difficult and decision-making non-consistent across areas. The effect of methods and computational approaches on estimates of people’s vulnerability was assessed using data collected from the Gambia. Twenty-four indicators reflecting vulnerability components: (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) were selected for this purpose. Data were collected through household surveys and key informant interviews. One hundred and fifteen respondents were surveyed across six communities and two administrative districts. Results were compared over three computational approaches: the maximum value transformation normalization, the z-score transformation normalization, and simple averaging. Regardless of the approaches used, communities that have high exposure to climate change and extreme events were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the vulnerability was strongly related to the socio-economic characteristics of farmers. The survey evidenced variability in vulnerability among communities and administrative districts. Comparing output across approaches, overall, people in the study area were found to be highly vulnerable using the simple average and maximum value transformation, whereas they were only moderately vulnerable using the z-score transformation approach. It is suggested that assessment approach-induced discrepancies be accounted for in international debates to harmonize/standardize assessment approaches to the end of making outputs comparable across regions. This will also likely increase the relevance of decision-making for adaptation policies.

Keywords: maximum value transformation, simple averaging, vulnerability assessment, West Africa, z-score transformation

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Authors: Suzanne Overstreet-Juenke

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Disproportionate minority contact (DMC) is a salient issue that has been found at every stage of the decision-making process in the juvenile justice system. Existing research indicates that DMC influences adjudication for drug, property, and personal crimes. Because intimate partner violence (IPV) is a major public health problem and global concern, the current study examines DMC at adjudication among youth charged for crimes of interpersonal violence. This research uses administrative, Court Designated Worker (CDW) data collected from 2014 to 2016. The results are contextualized using Steffensmeier’s version of focal concerns theory of judicial decision-making. This study assesses race and two seriousness of offense measures to establish whether a link exists between race and adjudication. The results of the study is similar to prior research on the topic. These results are discussed in terms of policy implications, limitations, and future research.

Keywords: race, disproportionate minority contact, focal concerns theory, juvenile

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Authors: Luc Beal

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Introduction. Among the stakeholders involved in the tourist decision-making process, the accommodation provider has the potential to play a crucial role in raising awareness, disseminating information, and thus influencing the tourists’ choice of transportation. Since the early days of tourism, the accommodation provider has consistently served as the primary point of contact with the destination, and consequently, as the primary source of information for visitors. By offering accommodation and hospitality, the accommodation provider has evolved into a trusted third party, functioning as an 'ambassador' capable of recommending the finest attractions and activities available at the destination. In contemporary times, when tourists plan their trips, they make a series of consecutive decisions, with the most important decision being to lock-in the accommodation reservation for the earliest days, so as to secure a safe arrival. Consequently, tourists place their trust in the accommodation provider not only for lodging but also for recommendations regarding restaurants, activities, and more. Thus, the latter has the opportunity to inform and influence tourists well in advance of their arrival, particularly during the booking phase, namely when it comes to selecting their mode of transportation. The pressing need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the tourism sector presents an opportunity to underscore the influence that accommodation providers have historically exerted on tourist decision-making . Methodology A participatory research, currently ongoing in south-western France, in collaboration with a nationwide hotel group and several destination management organizations, aims at examining the factors that determine the ability of accommodation providers to influence tourist transportation choices. Additionally, the research seeks to identify the conditions that motivate accommodation providers to assume a proactive role, such as fostering customer loyalty, reduced distribution costs, and financial compensation mechanisms. A panel of hotels participated in a series of focus group sessions with tourists, with the objective of modeling the decision-making process of tourists regarding their choice of transportation mode and to identify and quantify the types and levels of incentives liable to encourage environmentally responsible choices. Individual interviews were also conducted with hotel staff, including receptionists and guest relations officers, to develop a framework for interactions with tourists during crucial decision-making moments related to transportation choices. The primary finding of this research indicates that financial incentives significantly outweigh symbolic incentives in motivating tourists to opt for eco-friendly modes of transportation. Another noteworthy result underscores the crucial impact of organizational conditions governing interactions with tourists both before and during their stay. These conditions greatly influence the ability to raise awareness at key decision-making moments and the possibility of gathering data about the chosen transportation mode during the stay. In conclusion, this research has led to the formulation of practical recommendations for accommodation providers and Destination Marketing Organizations (DMOs). These recommendations pertain to communication protocols with tourists, the collection of evidences confirming chosen transportation modes, and the implementation of necessary incentives. Through these measures, accommodation provider can assume a central role in guiding tourists towards making responsible choices in terms of transportation.

Keywords: accommodation provider, trusted third party, environmentally-friendly transportation, green house gas, tourist decision-making process

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Authors: Wuttigrai Ngamsirijit

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Talent management in today’s modern organizations has become data-driven due to a demand for objective human resource decision making and development of analytics technologies. HR managers have been faced with some obstacles in exploiting data and information to obtain their effective talent management decisions. These include process-based data and records; insufficient human capital-related measures and metrics; lack of capabilities in data modeling in strategic manners; and, time consuming to add up numbers and make decisions. This paper proposes a framework of talent management through integration of talent value chain and human capital analytics approaches. It encompasses key data, measures, and metrics regarding strategic talent management decisions along the organizational and talent value chain. Moreover, specific predictive and prescriptive models incorporating these data and information are recommended to help managers in understanding the state of talent, gaps in managing talent and the organization, and the ways to develop optimized talent strategies.    

Keywords: decision making, human capital analytics, talent management, talent value chain

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Authors: Manirath Wongsim

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Information Quality (IQ) has become a critical, strategic issue in Accounting Information Systems (AIS) adoption. In order to implement AIS adoption successfully, it is important to consider the quality of information use throughout the adoption process, which seriously impacts the effectiveness of AIS adoption practice and the optimization of AIS adoption decisions. There is a growing need for research to provide insights into issues and solutions related to IQ in AIS adoption. The need for an integrated approach to improve IQ in AIS adoption, as well as the unique characteristics of accounting data, demands an AIS adoption specific IQ framework. This research aims to explore ways of managing information quality and AIS adoption to investigate the relationship between the IQ issues and AIS adoption process. This study has led to the development of a framework for understanding IQ management in AIS adoption. This research was done on 44 respondents as ten organisations from manufacturing firms in Thailand. The findings of the research’s empirical evidence suggest that IQ dimensions in AIS adoption to provide assistance in all process of decision making. This research provides empirical evidence that information quality of AIS adoption affect decision making and suggests that these variables should be considered in adopting AIS in order to improve the effectiveness of AIS.

Keywords: information quality, information quality dimensions, accounting information systems, accounting information system adoption

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Authors: Ankit Tyagi, Reet Kamal Tiwari, Naveen James

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In India, landslides are the most frequently occurring disaster in the regions of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats. The steep slopes and land use in these areas are quite apprehensive. In the recent past, many landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) works have been carried out in the Himalayas. However, the preparation of LHZ maps considering temporal factors such as seismic ground shaking, seismic amplification at surface level, and rainfall are limited. Hence this study presents a comprehensive use of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method in landslide risk assessment. In this research, we conducted both geospatial and geotechnical analysis to minimize the danger of landslides. Geospatial analysis is performed using high-resolution satellite data to produce landslide causative factors which were given weightage using the MCDM method. The geotechnical analysis includes a slope stability check, which was done to determine the potential landslide slope. The landslide risk map can provide useful information which helps people to understand the risk of living in an area.

Keywords: landslide hazard zonation, PHA, AHP, GIS

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Authors: Carla Silva

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Recent development of information and communication technology enables us to acquire, collect, analyse data in various fields of socioeconomic – technological systems. Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of educational data, in order to support institutions to a strategic planning and investment decision-making. In this article, we will address data from several different perspectives and define the applied data to sciences. Many believe that 'big data' will transform business, government, and other aspects of the economy. We discuss how new data may impact educational policy and educational research. Large scale administrative data sets and proprietary private sector data can greatly improve the way we measure, track, and describe educational activity and educational impact. We also consider whether the big data predictive modeling tools that have emerged in statistics and computer science may prove useful in educational and furthermore in economics. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges and opportunities for future research.

Keywords: data mining, research analysis, investment decision-making, educational research

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Authors: Pablo Javier Ortega-Rodriguez, Francisco Jose Pozuelos-Estrada

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Recently, there has been a renewed interest in school autonomy in the United Kingdom and its impact on students' outcomes. English principals have a pivotal role in decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explore the correlation between the type of school (public or private) and the considerable responsibilities of English principals which participated in PISA 2015. The final sample consisted of 419 principals. Descriptive data (percentages and means) were generated for the variables related to professional autonomy. Pearson's chi-square test was used to determine if there is an association between the type of school and principals' responsibilities for relevant tasks. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22. Findings suggest a significant correlation between the type of school and principals' responsibility for firing teachers and formulating the school budget. This study confirms that the type of school is not associated with principals' responsibility for choosing which textbooks are used at school. The present study establishes a quantitative framework for defining four models of professional autonomy and some proposals to improve school autonomy in the United Kingdom.

Keywords: decision making, principals, professional autonomy, school autonomy

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Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar

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The airline industry is continuously challenging how to safely increase the service life of the aircraft with limited maintenance budgets. Operators are looking for the most qualified maintenance providers of aircraft components, offering the finest customer service. Component owner and maintenance provider is offering an Abacus agreement (Aircraft Component Leasing) to increase the efficiency and productivity of the customer service. To increase the customer service, the current focus on No Fault Found (NFF) units must change into the focus on Early Failure (EF) units. Since the effect of EF units has a significant impact on customer satisfaction, this needs to increase the reliability of EF units at minimal cost, which leads to the goal of this paper. By identifying the reliability of early failure (EF) units with regards to No Fault Found (NFF) units, in particular, the root cause analysis with an integrated cost analysis of EF units with the use of a failure mode analysis tool and a cost model, there will be a set of EF maintenance improvements. The data used for the investigation of the EF units will be obtained from the Pentagon system, an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system used by Fokker Services. The Pentagon system monitors components, which needs to be repaired from Fokker aircraft owners, Abacus exchange pool, and commercial customers. The data will be selected on several criteria’s: time span, failure rate, and cost driver. When the selected data has been acquired, the failure mode and root cause analysis of EF units are initiated. The failure analysis approach tool was implemented, resulting in the proposed failure solution of EF. This will lead to specific EF maintenance improvements, which can be set-up to decrease the EF units and, as a result of this, increasing the reliability. The investigated EFs, between the time period over ten years, showed to have a significant reliability impact of 32% on the total of 23339 unscheduled failures. Since the EFs encloses almost one-third of the entire population.

Keywords: supportability, no fault found, FMEA, early failure, availability, operational reliability, predictive model

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Authors: Richardson M. Abraham-A., Colombo Celso Gaeta Tassinari

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The correlation between Total Organic Carbon (TOC) and flow units have been carried out to predict and compare the carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage potential of the shale and carbonate rocks in Irati Formation of the Parana Basin. The equations for permeability (K), reservoir quality index (RQI) and flow zone indicator (FZI) are redefined and engaged to evaluate the flow units in both potential reservoir rocks. Shales show higher values of TOC compared to carbonates, as such,  porosity (Ф) is most likely to be higher in shales compared to carbonates. The increase in Ф corresponds to the increase in K (in both rocks). Nonetheless, at lower values of Ф, K is higher in carbonates compared to shales. This shows that at lower values of TOC in carbonates, Ф is low, yet, K is likely to be high compared to shale. In the same vein, at higher values of TOC in shales, Ф is high, yet, K is expected to be low compared to carbonates.  Overall, the flow unit factors (RQI and FZI) are better in the carbonates compared to the shales. Moreso, within the study location,  there are some portions where the thicknesses of the carbonate units are higher compared to the shale units. Most parts of the carbonate strata in the study location are fractured in situ, hence,  this could provide easy access for the storage of CO₂. Therefore, based on these points and the disparities between the flow units in the evaluated rock types, the carbonate units are expected to show better potentials for the storage of CO₂. The shale units may be considered as potential cap rocks or seals.

Keywords: total organic content, flow units, carbon dioxide storage, geologic structures

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Authors: Rebecca J. Hafner, Daniel Read, David Elmes

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The current research applies decision making theory in order to address the problem of increasing uptake of energy-efficient technologies in the market place, where uptake is currently slower than one might predict following rational choice models. Specifically, in two studies we apply the alignable/non-alignable features effect and explore the impact of varying information structure on the consumers’ preference for standard versus energy efficient technologies. As researchers in the Interdisciplinary centre for Storage, Transformation and Upgrading of Thermal Energy (i-STUTE) are currently developing energy efficient heating systems for homes and businesses, we focus on the context of home heating choice, and compare preference for a standard condensing boiler versus an energy efficient heat pump, according to experimental manipulations in the structure of prior information. In Study 1, we find that people prefer stronger alignable features when options are similar; an effect which is mediated by an increased tendency to infer missing information is the same. Yet, in contrast to previous research, we find no effects of alignability on option preference when options differ. The advanced methodological approach used here, which is the first study of its kind to randomly allocate features as either alignable or non-alignable, highlights potential design effects in previous work. Study 2 is designed to explore the interaction between alignability and construal level as an explanation for the shift in attentional focus when options differ. Theoretical and applied implications for promoting energy efficient technologies are discussed.

Keywords: energy-efficient technologies, decision-making, alignability effects, construal level theory, CO2 reduction

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Authors: Taleb Odeh, Nizar Abu-Jaber, Nour Khries

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The southern part of Wadi Al Yarmouk catchment area covers north of Jordan. It locates within latitudes 32° 20’ to 32° 45’N and longitudes 35° 42’ to 36° 23’ E and has an area of about 1426 km2. However, it has high relief topography where the elevation varies between 50 to 1100 meter above sea level. The variations in the topography causes different units of landforms, climatic zones, land covers and plant species. As a results of these different landscapes units exists in that region. Spatial planning is a major challenge in such a vital area for Jordan which could not be achieved without determining landscape units. However, an integrated approach of remote sensing and geographic information Systems (GIS) is an optimized tool to investigate and map landscape units of such a complicated area. Remote sensing has the capability to collect different land surface data, of large landscape areas, accurately and in different time periods. GIS has the ability of storage these land surface data, analyzing them spatially and present them in form of professional maps. We generated a geo-land surface data that include land cover, rock units, soil units, plant species and digital elevation model using ASTER image and Google Earth while analyzing geo-data spatially were done by ArcGIS 10.2 software. We found that there are twenty two different landscape units in the study area which they have to be considered for any spatial planning in order to avoid and environmental problems.

Keywords: landscape, spatial planning, GIS, spatial analysis, remote sensing

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

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This paper summarizes some of the discussions that occurred in a workshop in West Virginia, U.S.A which was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in February 2016. The goal of the workshop was to explore the opportunities and challenges for applying systems engineering in large enterprises, and some of the issues that still persist. The main topics of the discussion included challenges with elaboration and abstraction in large systems, interfacing physical and social systems, and the need for axiomatic frameworks for large enterprises. We summarize these main points of discussion drawing parallels with decision making in organizations to instigate research in these discussion areas.

Keywords: decision analysis, systems engineering, framing, value creation

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Authors: Woosik Jang, Seung H. Han

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The optimal partner selection is one of the most important factors to pursue the project’s success. However, in practice, there is a gaps in perception of success depending on the role of the enterprises for the projects. This frequently makes a relations between the partner evaluation results and the project’s final performances, insufficiently. To meet this challenges, this study proposes a strategic partner evaluation model considering the perception gaps between enterprises. A total 3 times of survey was performed; factor selection, perception gap analysis, and case application. After then total 8 factors are extracted from independent sample t-test and Borich model to set-up the evaluation model. Finally, through the case applications, only 16 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 22 “Good” grade from existing model. On the contrary, 12 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 19 “Bad” grade from existing model. Consequently, the perception gaps based evaluation model is expected to improve the decision making quality and also enhance the probability of project’s success.

Keywords: partner evaluation model, project based enterprise, decision making, perception gap, project performance

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Authors: Glenda Wrenn, Juliet Muzere, Meldra Hall, Allyson Belton, Kisha Holden, Chanita Hughes-Halbert, Martha Kent, Bekh Bradley

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Understanding the help seeking decision making process and experiences of health disparity populations with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is central to development of trauma-informed, culturally centered, and patient focused services. Yet, little is known about the decision making process among adult Black women who are non-treatment seekers as they are, by definition, not engaged in services. Methods: Audiotaped interviews were conducted with 30 African American adult women with clinically significant PTSD symptoms who were engaged in primary care, but not in treatment for PTSD despite symptom burden. A qualitative interview guide was used to elucidate key themes. Independent coding of themes mapped to theory and identification of emergent themes were conducted using qualitative methods. An existing quantitative dataset was analyzed to contextualize responses and provide a descriptive summary of the sample. Results: Emergent themes revealed that active mental avoidance, the intermittent nature of distress, ambivalence, and self-identified resilience as undermining to help seeking decisions. Participants were stuck within the help-seeking phase of ‘recognition’ of illness and retained a sense of “it is my decision” despite endorsing significant social and environmental negative influencers. Participants distinguished ‘help acceptance’ from ‘help seeking’ with greater willingness to accept help and importance placed on being of help to others. Conclusions: Elucidation of the decision-making process from the perspective of non-treatment seekers has implications for outreach and treatment within models of integrated and specialty systems care. The salience of responses to trauma symptoms and stagnation in the help seeking recognition phase are findings relevant to integrated care service design and community engagement.

Keywords: culture, help-seeking, integrated care, PTSD

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Authors: Hanqing Yang, Xiang Meng, Qi Li, Weirong Chen

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The SOC (state of charge) based droop control has limitations on the load power sharing among different energy storage units, due to the line impedance. In this paper, a distributed control strategy for dispersed energy storage units in the DC microgrid based on discrete consensus is proposed. Firstly, a sparse information communication network is built. Thus, local controllers can communicate with its neighbors using voltage, current and SOC information. An average voltage of grid can be evaluated to compensate voltage offset by droop control, and an objective virtual resistance fulfilling above requirement can be dynamically calculated to distribute load power according to the SOC of the energy storage units. Then, the stability of the whole system and influence of communication delay are analyzed. It can be concluded that this control strategy can improve the robustness and flexibility, because of having no center controller. Finally, a model of DC microgrid with dispersed energy storage units and loads is built, the discrete distributed algorithm is established and communication protocol is developed. The co-simulation between Matlab/Simulink and JADE (Java agent development framework) has verified the effectiveness of proposed control strategy.

Keywords: dispersed energy storage units, discrete consensus algorithm, state of charge, communication delay

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Anil Anand

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Despite enormous strides made during the past decade, particularly with the adoption and expansion of community policing, there remains much that police leaders can do to improve police-public relations. The urgency is particularly evident in cities across the United States and Europe where an increasing number of police interactions over the past few years have ignited large, sometimes even national, protests against police policy and strategy, highlighting a gap between what police leaders feel they have archived in terms of public satisfaction, support, and legitimacy and the perception of bias among many marginalized communities. The decision on which one policing strategy is chosen over another, how many resources are allocated, and how strenuously the policy is applied resides primarily with the police and the units and subunits tasked with its enforcement. The scope and opportunity for police officers in impacting social attitudes and social policy are important elements that cannot be overstated. How do police leaders, for instance, decide when to apply one strategy—say community-based policing—over another, like intelligence-led policing? How do police leaders measure performance and success? Should these measures be based on quantitative preferences over qualitative, or should the preference be based on some other criteria? And how do police leaders define, allow, and control discretionary decision-making? Mending Broken Fences Policing provides police and security services leaders with a model based on social cohesion, that incorporates intelligence-led and community policing (IP-CP), supplemented by a quality/quantity/crime (QQC) framework to provide a four-step process for the articulable application of police intervention, performance measurement, and application of discretion.

Keywords: social cohesion, quantitative performance measurement, qualitative performance measurement, sustainable leadership

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Authors: Hamidrza Joodaki

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The most complex issue in urban land use planning is site selection that needs to assess the verity of elements and factors. Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods are the best approach to deal with complex problems. In this paper, combination of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model and FUZZY logic was used as MCDM methods to select the best site for gas station in the 4th gas zone of Tehran. The first and the most important step in FUZZY-AHP model is selection of criteria and sub-criteria. Population, accessibility, proximity and natural disasters were considered as the main criteria in this study. After choosing the criteria, they were weighted based on AHP by EXPERT CHOICE software, and FUZZY logic was used to enhance accuracy and to approach the reality. After these steps, criteria layers were produced and weighted based on FUZZY-AHP model in GIS. Finally, through ARC GIS software, the layers were integrated and the 4th gas zone in TEHRAN was selected as the best site to locate gas station.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), FUZZY logic, geographic information system (GIS)

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Authors: Irfan Khan

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Both the analytical methods used to understand the phenomena of peacebuilding and the ensuing viewpoints on achieving and sustaining "sustainable peace" are broad and diverse. This new field of study draws from sociology, anthropology, political theory, and political economy, psychology, international relations, and more recently, the development sciences to examine the wide range of 'conflicts' it describes. This paper emphasizes the significance of investigating the causes of juvenile disputes. It explains how police corruption encourages youth crime and why it's so important to address this issue head-on. It also examines the historical foundations and external pressures that have increased religious extremism and sectarian strife in Pakistan. The primary argument is that peace is not only a desirable 'goal' in itself but also that it may be a means to achieve political stability and long-term prosperity. Strategies for constructing peace may take many shapes, each tailored to the specifics of a given conflict, its scope, and the individuals involved. By drawing on some existing literature and applying it to the situation in Pakistan, this article proposes a viewpoint that centers on the participation of young people in the peacebuilding process. Due to their enhanced susceptibility and penchant for demanding change, young people are more likely to get involved in a conflict when economic failure and unemployment are present. The piece also emphasizes the marginalization young people experience as a result of their absence from decision-making processes and the political system. The article claims that Pakistan's rapidly growing young population presents a significant chance for a long-term "demographic dividend" in the form of improvements in peacebuilding processes. This benefit will only materialize if serious steps are taken to increase young people's voice and agency in political decision-making.

Keywords: peacebuilding, youth-led initiatives, empowerment, conflict & violence, religious extremism, political involvement, decision-making

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Authors: Sophia Francesca D. Lu

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This research tried to produce evidence that formal institutions, such as electoral and internal party quotas, can advance women’s active roles in the public sphere using the cases of four European countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. The quantitative dataset was provided by the University of Chicago and the Inter-University Consortium of Political and Social Research based on a two-year study (2008-2010) of political parties. Belgium engages in constitutionally mandated electoral quotas. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, on the other hand, have internal party quotas, which are voluntarily adopted by political parties. In analyzing each country’s chi-square and Pearson’s r correlation, Belgium, having an electoral quota, is the only country that was analyzed for electoral quotas. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands’ internal voluntary party quotas were correlated with women’s descriptive representations. Using chi-square analysis, this study showed that the presence of electoral quotas is correlated with an increase in the percentage of women in decision-making bodies as well as with an increase in the percentage of women in decision-making bodies. Likewise, using correlational analysis, a higher number of political parties employing internal party voluntary quotas is correlated with an increase in the percentage of women occupying seats in parliament as well as an increase in the percentage of women nominees in electoral lists of political parties. In conclusion, gender quotas, such as electoral quotas or internal party quotas, are an effective policy tool for greater women’s representation in political bodies. Political parties and governments should opt to have gender quotas, whether electoral or internal party quotas, to address the underrepresentation of women in parliament, decision-making bodies, and policy-formulation.

Keywords: electoral quota, Europe, formal institutions, institutional feminism, internal party quota, women’s electoral participation

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Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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Authors: Ming Wen, Nasim Nezamoddini

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Sophisticated numerical simulations like finite element analysis (FEA) involve a complicated process from model setup to post-processing tasks that require replication of time-consuming steps. Utilizing FEA automation program simplifies the complexity of the involved steps while minimizing human errors in analysis set up, calculations, and results processing. One of the main challenges in designing FEA automation programs is to identify user requirements and link them to possible design alternatives. This paper presents a decision-making framework to design a Python based FEA automation program for modal analysis, frequency response analysis, and random vibration fatigue (RVF) analysis procedures. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) are applied to evaluate design alternatives considering the feedback received from experts and program users.

Keywords: finite element analysis, FEA, random vibration fatigue, process automation, analytical hierarchy process, AHP, TOPSIS, multiple-criteria decision-making, MCDM

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Authors: Adepoju A. A., Olapade-Ogunwole F., Ganiyu M. O.

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This study examined women's empowerment in cassava production in southwest Nigeria. The contributions of the five domains namely decision about agricultural production, decision-making power over productive resources, control of the use of income, leadership and time allocation to women disempowerment, profiled the women based on their socio-economics features and determined factors influencing women's disempowerment. Primary data were collected from the women farmers and processors through the use of structured questionnaires. Purposive sampling was used to select the LGAs and villages based on a large number of cassava farmers and processors, while cluster sampling was used to select 360 respondents in the study area. Descriptive statistics such as bar charts and percentages, Women Empowerment in Agriculture (WEAI), and the Logit regression model were used to analyze the data collected. The results revealed that 63.88% of the women were disempowered. Lack of decision-making power over productive resources; 36.47% and leadership skills; 33.26% contributed mostly to the disempowerment of the women. About 85% of the married women were disempowered, while 76.92% of the women who participated in social group activities were more empowered than their disempowered counterparts. The findings showed that women with more years of processing experience have the probability of being disempowered while those who engage in farming as a primary livelihood activity, and participate in social groups among others have the tendency to be empowered. In view of this, it was recommended that women should be encouraged to farm and contribute to social group activities.

Keywords: cassava, production, empowerment, southwest, Nigeria

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Authors: Pisit Potjanajaruwit

Abstract:

The objectives of the study were to determine the marketing mix factors that influencing tourist’s destination decision making for cultural tourism in the Chonburi province. Both quantitative and qualitative data were applied in this study. The samples of 400 cases for quantitative analysis were tourists (both Thai and foreign) who were interested in cultural tourism in the Chonburi province, and traveled to cultural sites in Chonburi and 14 representatives from provincial tourism committee of Chonburi and local tourism experts. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. The study found that Thai and foreign tourists are influenced by different important marketing mix factors. The important factors for Thai respondents were physical evidence, price, people, and place at high importance level. For foreign respondents, physical evidence, price, people, and process were high importance level, whereas, product, place, and promotion were moderate importance level.

Keywords: Chonburi Province, decision making, cultural tourism, marketing mixed

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Authors: Umar D. M., Aminu A. M., Izaddeen K. Y.

Abstract:

Deployments of mini macrocell base stations also referred to as femtocells, improve the quality of service of indoor and outdoor users. Nevertheless, mobility management remains a key issue with regards to their deployment. This paper is leaned towards this issue, with an in-depth focus on the most important aspect of mobility management -handover. In handover management, making a handover decision in the LTE two-tier macrocell femtocell network is a crucial research area. Decision algorithms in this research are classified and comparatively analyzed according to received signal strength, user equipment speed, cost function, and interference. However, it was observed that most of the discussed decision algorithms fail to consider cell selection with hybrid access policy in a single macrocell multiple femtocell scenario, another observation was a majority of these algorithms lack the incorporation of user equipment residence parameter. Not including this parameter boosts the number of unnecessary handover occurrence. To deal with these issues, a sophisticated handover decision algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm considers the user’s velocity, received signal strength, residence time, as well as the femtocell base station’s access policy. Simulation results have shown that the proposed algorithm reduces the number of unnecessary handovers when compared to conventional received signal strength-based handover decision algorithm.

Keywords: user-equipment, radio signal service, long term evolution, mobility management, handoff

Procedia PDF Downloads 106