Search results for: analytical streamflow distribution

Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Pirom Thangchitpianpol, Suttipong Jumroonrut

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This research investigates the distribution of food demand for animal food and the optimum amount of that food production at minimum cost. The data consist of customer purchase orders for the food of laying hens, price of food for laying hens, cost per unit for the food inventory, cost related to food of laying hens in which the food is out of stock, such as fine, overtime, urgent purchase for material. They were collected from January, 1990 to December, 2013 from a factory in Nakhonratchasima province. The collected data are analyzed in order to explore the distribution of the monthly food demand for the laying hens and to see the rate of inventory per unit. The results are used in a stochastic linear programming model for aggregate planning in which the optimum production or minimum cost could be obtained. Programming algorithms in MATLAB and tools in Linprog software are used to get the solution. The distribution of the food demand for laying hens and the random numbers are used in the model. The study shows that the distribution of monthly food demand for laying has a normal distribution, the monthly average amount (unit: 30 kg) of production from January to December. The minimum total cost average for 12 months is Baht 62,329,181.77. Therefore, the production planning can reduce the cost by 14.64% from real cost.

Keywords: animal food, stochastic linear programming, aggregate planning, production planning, demand uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Akim Borbuev, Francisco de León

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Economic and population growth in densely-populated urban areas introduce major challenges to distribution system operators, planers, and designers. To supply added loads, utilities are frequently forced to invest in new distribution feeders. However, this is becoming increasingly more challenging due to space limitations and rising installation costs in urban settings. This paper proposes the conversion of critical alternating current (ac) distribution feeders into direct current (dc) feeders to increase the power transfer capacity by a factor as high as four. Current trends suggest that the return of dc transmission, distribution, and utilization are inevitable. Since a total system-level transformation to dc operation is not possible in a short period of time due to the needed huge investments and utility unreadiness, this paper recommends that feeders that are expected to exceed their limits in near future are converted to dc. The increase in power transfer capacity is achieved through several key differences between ac and dc power transmission systems. First, it is shown that underground cables can be operated at higher dc voltage than the ac voltage for the same dielectric stress in the insulation. Second, cable sheath losses, due to induced voltages yielding circulation currents, that can be as high as phase conductor losses under ac operation, are not present under dc. Finally, skin and proximity effects in conductors and sheaths do not exist in dc cables. The paper demonstrates that in addition to the increased power transfer capacity utilities substituting ac feeders by dc feeders could benefit from significant lower costs and reduced losses. Installing dc feeders is less expensive than installing new ac feeders even when new trenches are not needed. Case studies using the IEEE 342-Node Low Voltage Networked Test System quantify the technical and economic benefits of dc feeders.

Keywords: DC power systems, distribution feeders, distribution networks, power transfer capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Zafer Yüce, Paşa Yayla, Alev Taşkın

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There are heaps of analytical methods to estimate the crack growth life of a component. Soft computing methods have an increasing trend in predicting fatigue life. Their ability to build complex relationships and capability to handle huge amounts of data are motivating researchers and industry professionals to employ them for challenging problems. This study focuses on soft computing methods, especially random forest regressors and artificial neural networks with hyperparameter optimization algorithms such as grid search and random grid search, to estimate the crack growth life of an aircraft wing splice joint under variable amplitude loading. TensorFlow and Scikit-learn libraries of Python are used to build the machine learning models for this study. The material considered in this work is 7050-T7451 aluminum, which is commonly preferred as a structural element in the aerospace industry, and regarding the crack type; corner crack is used. A finite element model is built for the joint to calculate fastener loads and stresses on the structure. Since finite element model results are validated with analytical calculations, findings of the finite element model are fed to AFGROW software to calculate analytical crack growth lives. Based on Fighter Aircraft Loading Standard for Fatigue (FALSTAFF), 90 unique fatigue loading spectra are developed for various load levels, and then, these spectrums are utilized as inputs to the artificial neural network and random forest regression models for predicting crack growth life. Finally, the crack growth life predictions of the machine learning models are compared with analytical calculations. According to the findings, a good correlation is observed between analytical and predicted crack growth lives.

Keywords: aircraft, fatigue, joint, life, optimization, prediction.

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: R. Marandi, H. Shahrir, T. Nejad Ghaffar Borhani, M. Kamaruddin

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In the present study, a steady state population balance model was developed to predict the polymer particle size distribution (PSD) in ethylene gas phase fluidized bed olefin polymerization reactors. The multilayer polymeric flow model (MPFM) was used to calculate the growth rate of a single polymer particle under intra-heat and mass transfer resistance. The industrial plant data were used to calculate the growth rate of polymer particle and the polymer PSD. Numerical simulations carried out to describe the influence of effective monomer diffusion coefficient, polymerization rate and initial catalyst size on the catalyst particle growth and final polymer PSD. The results present that the intra-heat and mass limitation is important for the ethylene polymerization, the growth rate of particle and the polymer PSD in the fluidized bed reactor. The effect of the agglomeration on the PSD is also considered. The result presents that the polymer particle size distribution becomes broader as the agglomeration exits.

Keywords: population balance, olefin polymerization, fluidized bed reactor, particle size distribution, agglomeration

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: V. Golubeva, O. Vakhnina, I. Konopkina, N. Gerasimova, N. Taturina, K. Zhogova

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To improve chemical current sources, the ion-conducting electrolytes based on Li halides (LiCl-KCl, LiCl-LiBr-KBr, LiCl-LiBr-LiF) are developed. It is necessary to have chemical analytical methods for determination of halides to control the electrolytes technology. The methods of classical analytical chemistry are of interest, as they are characterized by high accuracy. Using these methods is a difficult task because halides have similar chemical properties. The objective of this work is to develop a titrimetric method for determining the content of bromides, chlorides, and fluorides in their joint presence in an ion-conducting electrolyte. In accordance with the developed method of analysis to determine fluorides, electrolyte sample is dissolved in diluted HCl acid; fluorides are titrated by La(NO₃)₃ solution with potentiometric indication of equivalence point, fluoride ion-selective electrode is used as sensor. Chlorides and bromides do not form a hardly soluble compound with La and do not interfere in result of analysis. To determine the bromides, the sample is dissolved in a diluted H₂SO₄ acid. The bromides are oxidized with a solution of KIO₃ to Br₂, which is removed from the reaction zone by boiling. Excess of KIO₃ is titrated by iodometric method. The content of bromides is calculated from the amount of KIO₃ spent on Br₂ oxidation. Chlorides and fluorides are not oxidized by KIO₃ and do not interfere in result of analysis. To determine the chlorides, the sample is dissolved in diluted HNO₃ acid and the total content of chlorides and bromides is determined by method of visual mercurometric titration with diphenylcarbazone indicator. Fluorides do not form a hardly soluble compound with mercury and do not interfere with determination. The content of chlorides is calculated taking into account the content of bromides in the sample of electrolyte. The validation of the developed analytical method was evaluated by analyzing internal reference material with known chlorides, bromides and fluorides content. The analytical method allows to determine chlorides, bromides and fluorides in case of their joint presence in ion-conducting electrolyte within the range and with relative total error (δ): for bromides from 60.0 to 65.0 %, δ = ± 2.1 %; for chlorides from 8.0 to 15.0 %, δ = ± 3.6 %; for fluorides from 5.0 to 8.0%, ± 1.5% . The analytical method allows to analyze electrolytes and mixtures that contain chlorides, bromides, fluorides of alkali metals and their mixtures (K, Na, Li).

Keywords: bromides, chlorides, fluorides, ion-conducting electrolyte

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Geminne Manzano, Clairecynth Yu, Lilibeth Salvador-Reyes, Viviene Santiago, Porfirio AliñO

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The distribution and abundance patterns of many marine sessile organisms such as sponges vary among and within reefs. Determining the factors affecting its distribution is essential especially for organisms that produce secondary metabolites with pharmaceutical importance. In this study, the small-scale distribution patterns of the Philippine blue sponge, Xestospongia sp. in relation to some ecological factors were examined. The relationship between the renieramycin-M production and their benthic attributes were also determined. Ecological surveys were conducted on two stations with varying depth and exposure located in Oriental Mindoro, Philippines. Three 30 by 6m belt transect were used to assess the sponge abundance at each station. The substratum of the sponges was also characterized. Fish visual census observations were also taken together with the photo transect methods benthic surveys. Sponge samples were also collected for the extraction of Renieramycin-M and for further chemical analysis. Varying distribution patterns were observed to be attributed to the combination of different ecological and environmental factors. The amount of Renieramycin-production also varied in each station. The common substratum for blue sponges includes hard and soft corals, as well as, dead coral with algal patches. Blue sponges from exposed habitat frequently grow associated with massive and branching corals, Porites sp., while the most frequent substrate found on sheltered habitats is the coral Pavona sp. Exploring the influence of ecological and environmental parameters on the abundance and distribution of sponge assemblages provide ecological insights and their potential applications to pharmaceutical studies. The results of this study provide further impetus in pursuing studies into patterns and processes of the Philippine blue sponge, Xestospongia sp. distribution in relation to the chemical ecology of its secondary metabolites.

Keywords: distribution patterns, Porifera, Renieramycin-M, sponge assemblages, Xestospongia sp.

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Authors: Amjad Abdullah, Amjad Yahya, Bushra Aljohani, Amani Alghamdi

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Change point detection is an important part of data analysis. The presence of a change point refers to a significant change in the behavior of a time series. In this article, we examine the detection of multiple change points of parameters of the exponential Lomax distribution, which is broad and flexible compared with other distributions while fitting data. We used the Schwarz information criterion and binary segmentation to detect multiple change points in publicly available data on the average temperature in the ozone layer. The change points were successfully located.

Keywords: binary segmentation, change point, exponentialLomax distribution, information criterion

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Karel Borovec, Jerzy Gorecki, Tadeas Ochodek

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Combustion of solid fuels is one of the main sources of mercury in the environment. To reduce the amount of mercury emitted to the atmosphere, it is necessary to modify or optimize old purification technologies or introduce the new ones. Effective reduction of mercury level in the flue gas requires the use of speciation systems for mercury form determination. This paper describes tests and provides comparison of two industrial portable and continuous systems for mercury speciation in the flue gas: Durag HM-1400 TRX with a speciation module and the Portable Continuous Mercury Speciation System based on the SGM-8 mercury speciation set, made by Nippon Instruments Corporation. Additionally, the paper describes a few analytical problems that were encountered during a two-year period of using the systems.

Keywords: continuous measurement, flue gas, mercury determination, speciation

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Pahirangan Sivapatham, , Esser Barbara

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The impacts of the asphalt mix design, the properties of aggregates and quality differences in the same type of bitumen, as well as the dosage rate of reclaimed asphalt on the relevant material parameter of the analytical pavement design method are not known. Due to that, in this study, the influence of the above mentioned characteristics on relevant material parameters has been determined and analyzed by means of the analytical pavement calculations method. Therefore, material parameters for several asphalt mixes for asphalt wearing course, asphalt binder course and asphalt base course have been determined. Thereby several bitumens of the same type from different producer’s have been used. In addition, asphalt base course materials with three different dosages of reclaimed asphalt have been produced and tested. As material parameter according to the German analytical pavement design guide(RDO Asphalt), the stiffness’s at different temperatures and fatigue behavior have been determined. The findings of asphalt base course materials produced with several pen graded bitumen from different producers and different dosages of reclaimed asphalt indicate the distinct impact on fatigue behaviors and mechanical properties. The calculated test results of the analytical pavement design method show significant differences in the lifetimes. The pavement design calculation is to carry out by means of the actual material parameter. The calculated lifetime of the asphalt base course materials differentiates by the factor 3.2. The determining test results of bitumen characteristics meet the requirement according to the German Standards. But, further investigations of bitumen in different aging conditions show significant differences in their quality. The fatigue behavior and stiffness of asphalt pavement improves with increasing dosage of reclaimed asphalt. Furthermore, the type of aggregates used shows no significant influences.

Keywords: reclaimed asphalt pavement, quality differences in the bitumen, life time calculation, Asphalt mix with RAP

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Anjuman Antil, Anuj Kapoor, Neha Saini

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of insurance in India and the world. The paper also traced the historical basis of life insurance in the world and how it emerged as a major sector in India’s economy. The promotional strategies and distribution channel of top three companies in the Indian insurance sector are also discussed. Design/methodology/approach: The paper examined the secondary data which includes the reports issued by Insurance Regulatory Authority of India, websites of companies, books, and journals relevant to the study. Findings: The paper argued the role and importance of insurance in an emerging economy. The challenges and opportunities of the insurance sector are briefed out. The emerging areas in the insurance sector in terms of promotional strategies and distribution channel are also listed. Implications: The historical evolution can be studied by companies while formulating their strategies. It will help them analyse the insurance sector, how things have changed and how to change with the changing times. Originality/value: This paper gives comprehensive data regarding the background of the insurance sector. Along with historical perspective, marketing and distribution, current and future trends have been discussed.

Keywords: insurance, evolution, life insurance, marketing, distribution channels

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Hiroki Takiguchi, Masahiro Furuya, Takahiro Arai

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In order to quantitatively comprehend thermal flow for some industrial applications such as nuclear and chemical reactors, detailed measurements for temperature and abundance (concentration) of materials at high temporal and spatial resolution are required. Additionally, rigorous evaluation of the size effect is also important for practical realization. This paper introduces a real-time spectroscopic imaging method in micro scale field, which visualizes temperature and concentration distribution of a liquid or mix liquids with near-infrared (NIR) wavelength region. This imaging principle is based on absorption of pre-selected narrow band from absorption spectrum peak or its dependence property of target liquid in NIR region. For example, water has a positive temperature sensitivity in the wavelength at 1905 nm, therefore the temperature of water can be measured using the wavelength band. In the experiment, the real-time imaging observation of concentration distribution in micro channel was demonstrated to investigate the applicability of micro-scale diffusion coefficient and temperature measurement technique using this proposed method. The effect of thermal diffusion and binary mutual diffusion was evaluated with the time-series visualizations of concentration distribution.

Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopic imaging, micro fluid channel, concentration distribution, diffusion phenomenon

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: N. F. M. Mokhtar, N. Z. A. Hamid

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This paper reports an analytical investigation of the stability and thermal convection in a horizontal anisotropic porous medium in the presence of Coriolis force and magnetic field. The Darcy model is used in the momentum equation and Boussinesq approximation is considered for the density variation of the porous medium. The upper and lower boundaries of the porous medium are assumed to be conducting to temperature perturbation and we used first order Chebyshev polynomial Tau method to solve the resulting eigenvalue problem. Analytical solution is obtained for the case of stationary convection. It is found that the porous layer system becomes unstable when the mechanical anisotropy parameter elevated and increasing the Coriolis force and magnetic field help to stabilize the anisotropy porous medium.

Keywords: anisotropic, Chebyshev tau method, Coriolis force, Magnetic field

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: Mahmoud Samkan

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Dispersed Generation (DG) is a promising solution to many power system problems such as voltage regulation and power loss. This paper proposes a heuristic two-step method to optimize the location and size of DG for reducing active power losses and, therefore, improve the voltage profile in radial distribution networks. In addition to a DG placed at the system load gravity center, this method consists in assigning a DG to each lateral of the network. After having determined the central DG placement, the location and size of each lateral DG are predetermined in the first step. The results are then refined in the second step. This method is tested for 33-bus system for 100% DG penetration. The results obtained are compared with those of other methods found in the literature.

Keywords: optimal location, optimal size, dispersed generation (DG), radial distribution networks, reducing losses

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Jacob Msughter Gwa, Rhys Williams

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It is widely known that food security is a major concern in Sub-Saharan Africa. In many regions, including Nigeria, this is due to an agriculture-old problem of soil erosion beyond replacement levels. It seems that the use of fertilizer would be an immediate solution as it can boost agricultural productivity, and low agricultural productivity is attributed to the low use of fertilizers in Nigeria. The Government of Nigeria has been addressing the challenges of food shortage but with limited success. The utilisation of a practical and efficient subsidy programme in addressing this issue seems to be needed. However, the problem of procurement and distribution changes from one stage of subsidy to another. This paper looks at the difference between the ideal and the actual implementation of agricultural fertilizer policies in Nigeria, as it currently runs the risk of meeting required standards on paper but missing the desired real outcomes, and recognises the need to close the gap between the paper work and the realities on the ground.

Keywords: agricultural productivity, fertilizer distribution, fertilizer procurement, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Hongda Guo, Wenxia Sima

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Transformer oil is widely used in power systems because of its excellent insulation properties. The accurate measurement of electric field and space charge distribution in transformer oil under high voltage impulse has important theoretical and practical significance, but still remains challenging to date because of its low Kerr constant. In this study, the continuous electric field and space charge distribution over time between parallel-plate electrodes in high-voltage pulsed transformer oil based on the Kerr effect is directly measured using a linear array photoelectrical detector. Experimental results demonstrate the applicability and reliability of this method. This study provides a feasible approach to further study the space charge effects and breakdown mechanisms in transformer oil.

Keywords: electric field, Kerr, space charge, transformer oil

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: Wardatutthoyyibah, Satyawan Pudyatmoko, Sena Adi Subrata, Muhammad Ali Imron

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The proboscis monkey is an endemic species to the island of Borneo with conservation status IUCN (The International Union for Conservation of Nature) of endangered. The population of the monkey has a specific habitat and sensitive to habitat disturbances. As a consequence of increasing rates of land-use change in the last four decades, its population was reported significantly decreased. We quantified the effect of land use change on the proboscis monkey’s habitat through the species distribution modeling (SDM) approach with Maxent Software. We collected presence data and environmental variables, i.e., land cover, topography, bioclimate, distance to the river, distance to the road, and distance to the anthropogenic disturbance to generate predictive distribution maps of the monkeys. We compared two prediction maps for 2000 and 2015 data to represent the current habitat of the monkey. We overlaid the monkey’s predictive distribution map with the existing protected areas to investigate whether the habitat of the monkey is protected under the protected areas networks. The results showed that almost 50% of the monkey’s habitat reduced as the effect of land use change. And only 9% of the current proboscis monkey’s habitat within protected areas. These results are important for the master plan of conservation of the endangered proboscis monkey and provide scientific guidance for the future development incorporating biodiversity issue.

Keywords: endemic species, land use change, maximum entropy, spatial distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Alia Al Rayssi, Mahra Al Marar, Alyazia Alkhaili, Reem Al Dhaheri, Shayma Alkobaisi, Hoda Amer

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We present in this paper a web-based system called “HelpMeBreathe” for managing asthma. The proposed system provides analytical tools, which allow better understanding of environmental triggers of asthma, hence better support of data-driven decision making. The developed system provides warning messages to a specific asthma patient if the weather in his/her area might cause any difficulty in breathing or could trigger an asthma attack. HelpMeBreathe collects, stores, and analyzes individuals’ moving trajectories and health conditions as well as environmental data. It then processes and displays the patients’ data through an analytical tool that leads to an effective decision making by physicians and other decision makers.

Keywords: asthma, environmental triggers, map interface, web-based systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: U. Narumitbowonkul, P. Keangin, P. Rattanadecho

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Both numerical and experimental investigation of the temperature distribution and electric field in a natural rubber glove (NRG) during microwave heating are studied. A three-dimensional model of NRG and microwave oven are considered in this work. The influences of position, heating time and rotation angle of NRG on temperature distribution and electric field are presented in details. The coupled equations of electromagnetic wave propagation and heat transfer are solved using the finite element method (FEM). The numerical model is validated with an experimental study at a frequency of 2.45 GHz. The results show that the numerical results closely match the experimental results. Furthermore, it is found that the temperature distribution and electric field increases with increasing heating time. The hot spot zone appears in NRG at the tip of middle finger while the maximum temperature occurs in case of rotation angle of NRG = 60 degree. This investigation provides the essential aspects for a fundamental understanding of heat transport of NRG using microwave energy in industry.

Keywords: electric field, finite element method, microwave energy, natural rubber glove

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Masomeh Jamshid Nejad

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Nowadays, statistical literacy is no longer a necessary skill but an essential skill with broad applications across diverse fields, especially in operational decision areas such as business management, finance, and economics. As such, learning and deep understanding of statistical concepts are essential in the context of business studies. One of the crucial topics in statistical theory and its application is the normal distribution, often called a bell-shaped curve. To interpret data and conduct hypothesis tests, comprehending the properties of normal distribution (the mean and standard deviation) is essential for business students. This requires undergraduate students in the field of economics and business management to visualize and work with data following a normal distribution. Since technology is interconnected with education these days, it is important to teach statistics topics in the context of Python, R-studio, and Microsoft Excel to undergraduate students. This research endeavours to shed light on the effect of Excel-based instruction on learners’ knowledge of statistics, specifically the central concept of normal distribution. As such, two groups of undergraduate students (from the Business Management program) were compared in this research study. One group underwent Excel-based instruction and another group relied only on traditional teaching methods. We analyzed experiential data and BBA participants’ responses to statistic-related questions focusing on the normal distribution, including its key attributes, such as the mean and standard deviation. The results of our study indicate that exposing students to Excel-based learning supports learners in comprehending statistical concepts more effectively compared with the other group of learners (teaching with the traditional method). In addition, students in the context of Excel-based instruction showed ability in picturing and interpreting data concentrated on normal distribution.

Keywords: statistics, excel-based instruction, data visualization, pedagogy

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Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

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These papers describe the Bayesian Estimator using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimation of the Weibull distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood method can’t estimate the shape parameter in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions cannot be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Lindley’s approximation are used, where the full conditional distribution for the parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (HM) followed by estimate the survival and hazard functions. The methods are compared to Maximum Likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the better method in scale and shape parameters, the survival and hazard functions.

Keywords: weibull distribution, bayesian method, markov chain mote carlo, survival and hazard functions

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Authors: Serge B. Provost, Yishan Zhang

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A moment-based adjustment to the saddlepoint approximation is introduced in the context of density estimation. First applied to univariate distributions, this methodology is extended to the bivariate case. It then entails estimating the density function associated with each marginal distribution by means of the saddlepoint approximation and applying a bivariate adjustment to the product of the resulting density estimates. The connection to the distribution of empirical copulas will be pointed out. As well, a novel approach is proposed for estimating the support of distribution. As these results solely rely on sample moments and empirical cumulant-generating functions, they are particularly well suited for modeling massive data sets. Several illustrative applications will be presented.

Keywords: empirical cumulant-generating function, endpoints identification, saddlepoint approximation, sample moments, density estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Pengcheng Quan, Shan Zhong

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Double ramp geometry is widely used in supersonic and hypersonic environments as it presents unique flow patterns for shock wave-boundary layer interaction studies as well as for two-dimensional inlets and deflected control surfaces for re-entry vehicles. Hence, the surface pressure distribution is critical for optimum design. Though when the model is wide enough on spanwise direction the flow can be regarded as a two-dimensional flow, in actual applications a finite width would normally cause some three-dimensional spillage effects. No research has been found addressed this problem, hence the primary interest of this study is to set up a liable surface pressure distribution on a double ramp with three-dimensional effects. Both numerical and experimental (pressure sensitive paints) are applied to obtain the pressure distribution; the results agree well except that the numerical computation doesn’t capture the Gortler vortices. The pressure variations on the spanwise planes are used to analyse the development of the Gortler vortices and the effects of three-dimensional spillage on the vortices. Results indicate that the three-dimensionl spillage effects not only enhance the developing of the Gortler vortice, but also increase the periodic distance between vortice pairs.

Keywords: spillage effects, pressure sensitive paints, hypersonic, double ramp

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Authors: Mohamed Barbary, Mohamed H. Abd El-Azeem

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Maneuvering extended object tracking (M-EOT) using high-resolution inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) observations has been gaining momentum recently. This work presents a new robust implementation of the multiple models (MM) multi-Bernoulli (MB) filter for M-EOT, where the M-EOT’s ISAR observations are characterized using a skewed (SK) non-symmetrically normal distribution. To cope with the possible abrupt change of kinematic state, extension, and observation distribution over an extended object when a target maneuvers, a multiple model technique is represented based on MB-track-before-detect (TBD) filter supported by SK-sub-random matrix model (RMM) or sub-ellipses framework. Simulation results demonstrate this remarkable impact.

Keywords: maneuvering extended objects, ISAR, skewed normal distribution, sub-RMM, MM-MB-TBD filter

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Authors: Abir Yahya, Hacen Dhahri, Khalifa Slimi

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The present paper deals with a numerical simulation of temperature field inside a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) components. The temperature distribution is investigated using a co-flow planar SOFC comprising the air and fuel channel and two-ceramic electrodes, anode and cathode, separated by a dense ceramic electrolyte. The Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is used for the numerical simulation of the physical problem. The effects of inlet temperature, anode thermal conductivity and current density on temperature distribution are discussed. It was found that temperature distribution is very sensitive to the inlet temperature and the current density.

Keywords: heat sources, Lattice Boltzmann method, solid oxide fuel cell, temperature

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Authors: Saltanat Zhilkibayeva, Muratulla Utenov, Nurzhan Utenov

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The distributed inertia forces of complex nature appear in links of rod mechanisms within the motion process. Such loads raise a number of problems, as the problems of destruction caused by a large force of inertia; elastic deformation of the mechanism can be considerable, that can bring the mechanism out of action. In this work, a new analytical approach for the definition of internal forces in links of robotic systems and mechanisms with statically indeterminate and determinate structures taking into account the distributed inertial and concentrated forces is proposed. The relations between the intensity of distributed inertia forces and link weight with geometrical, physical and kinematic characteristics are determined in this work. The distribution laws of inertia forces and dead weight make it possible at each position of links to deduce the laws of distribution of internal forces along the axis of the link, in which loads are found at any point of the link. The approximation matrixes of forces of an element under the action of distributed inertia loads with the trapezoidal intensity are defined. The obtained approximation matrixes establish the dependence between the force vector in any cross-section of the element and the force vector in calculated cross-sections, as well as allow defining the physical characteristics of the element, i.e., compliance matrix of discrete elements. Hence, the compliance matrixes of an element under the action of distributed inertial loads of trapezoidal shape along the axis of the element are determined. The internal loads of each continual link are unambiguously determined by a set of internal loads in its separate cross-sections and by the approximation matrixes. Therefore, the task is reduced to the calculation of internal forces in a final number of cross-sections of elements. Consequently, it leads to a discrete model of elastic calculation of links of rod mechanisms. The discrete model of the elements of mechanisms and robotic systems and their discrete model as a whole are constructed. The dynamic equilibrium equations for the discrete model of the elements are also received in this work as well as the equilibrium equations of the pin and rigid joints expressed through required parameters of internal forces. Obtained systems of dynamic equilibrium equations are sufficient for the definition of internal forces in links of mechanisms, which structure is statically definable. For determination of internal forces of statically indeterminate mechanisms (in the way of determination of internal forces), it is necessary to build a compliance matrix for the entire discrete model of the rod mechanism, that is reached in this work. As a result by means of developed technique the programs in the MAPLE18 system are made and animations of the motion of the fourth class mechanisms of statically determinate and statically indeterminate structures with construction on links the intensity of cross and axial distributed inertial loads, the bending moments, cross and axial forces, depending on kinematic characteristics of links are obtained.

Keywords: distributed inertial forces, internal forces, statically determinate mechanisms, statically indeterminate mechanisms

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Authors: Y. Yılmaz, C. Ünal, A. Dursun

Abstract:

Distribution channels play significant role for hotels. Direct and indirect selling options of hotel rooms have been increased especially with the help of new technologies, i.e. hotel’s own web sites and online booking sites. Although these options emerged as tools for diversifying the distribution channels, vast number of hotels -mostly resort hotels- is still heavily dependent upon international tour operators when selling their products. On the other hand, hotel sector is so vulnerable against crises. Economic, political or any other crisis can affect hotels very badly and so it is critical to have the right balance of distribution channel to avoid the adverse impacts of a crisis. In this study, it is aimed to search the impacts of a general crisis on the selling prices of hotels which have different weights of distribution channels. The study was done in Turkey where various crises occurred in 2015 and 2016 which had great negative impacts on Turkish tourism and led enormous occupancy rate and selling price reductions. 112 upscale resort hotel in Antalya, which is the most popular tourism destination of Turkey, joined to the research. According to the results, hotels with high dependency to international tour operators are more forced to reduce their room prices in crisis time compared to the ones which use their own web sites more. It was also found that the decline in room prices is limited for hotels which are working with national tour operators and travel agencies in crisis time.

Keywords: marketing channels, crisis, hotel, international tour operators, online travel agencies

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Babawale Akin Adeyemi, Esan Temitayo, Adeyemi Olabisi Omowumi

Abstract:

The paper analyzed waste disposal system in Akure, Ondo State using GIS techniques. Specifically, the study identified the spatial distribution of collection points and existing dumpsite; evaluated the accessibility of waste collection points and their proximity to each other with the view of enhancing better performance of the waste disposal system. Data for the study were obtained from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were obtained through the administration of questionnaire. From field survey, 35 collection points were identified in the study area. 10 questionnaires were administered around each collection point making a total of 350 questionnaires for the study. Also, co-ordinates of each collection point were captured using a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver which was used to analyze the spatial distribution of collection points. Secondary data used include administrative map collected from Akure South Local Government Secretariat. Data collected was analyzed using the GIS analytical tools which is neighborhood function. The result revealed that collection points were found in all parts of Akure with the highest concentration around the central business district. The study also showed that 80% of the collection points enjoyed efficient waste service while the remaining 20% does not. The study further revealed that most collection points in the core of the city were in close proximity to each other. In conclusion, the paper revealed the capability of Geographic Information System (GIS) as a technique in management of waste collection and disposal technique. The application of Geographic Information System (GIS) in the evaluation of the solid waste management in Akure is highly invaluable for the state waste management board which could also be beneficial to other states in developing a modern day solid waste management system. Further study on solid waste management is also recommended especially for updating of information on both spatial and non-spatial data.

Keywords: assessment, geospatial, system, waste disposal

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Saruhan Kartal, Ilker Kalkan

Abstract:

The present paper reports the cracking moment estimates of a set of steel-reinforced, Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP)-reinforced and hybrid steel-FRP reinforced concrete beams, calculated from different analytical formulations in the codes, together with the experimental cracking load values. A total of three steel-reinforced, four FRP-reinforced, 12 hybrid FRP-steel over-reinforced and five hybrid FRP-steel under-reinforced concrete beam tests were analyzed within the scope of the study. Glass FRP (GFRP) and Basalt FRP (BFRP) bars were used in the beams as FRP bars. In under-reinforced hybrid beams, rupture of the FRP bars preceded crushing of concrete, while concrete crushing preceded FRP rupture in over-reinforced beams. In both types, steel yielding took place long before the FRP rupture and concrete crushing. The cracking moment mainly depends on two quantities, namely the moment of inertia of the section at the initiation of cracking and the flexural tensile strength of concrete, i.e. the modulus of rupture. In the present study, two different definitions of uncracked moment of inertia, i.e. the gross and the uncracked transformed moments of inertia, were adopted. Two analytical equations for the modulus of rupture (ACI 318M and Eurocode 2) were utilized in the calculations as well as the experimental tensile strength of concrete from prismatic specimen tests. The ACI 318M modulus of rupture expression produced cracking moment estimates closer to the experimental cracking moments of FRP-reinforced and hybrid FRP-steel reinforced concrete beams when used in combination with the uncracked transformed moment of inertia, yet the Eurocode 2 modulus of rupture expression gave more accurate cracking moment estimates in steel-reinforced concrete beams. All of the analytical definitions produced analytical values considerably different from the experimental cracking load values of the solely FRP-reinforced concrete beam specimens.

Keywords: polymer reinforcement, four-point bending, hybrid use of reinforcement, cracking moment

Procedia PDF Downloads 135