Search results for: generalized uncertainty principle

Authors: Nancy Michail, Niloufer Selvadurai, Doron Goldbarsht

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This study analyses the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in Australia and the framework being developed to ensure that national security and privacy considerations are appropriately addressed. Through the use of doctrinal methodology, the research closely and critically examines current legislation and regulation on privacy federal laws and the need to comply with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws (AML/CTF). It is argued that the introduction of CBDCs may lead to potential tension between the application of AML/CTF laws and the upholding of individuals’ fundamental and legislated rights to privacy; therefore, it emphasises the need for clear delineation of ambits and support between different laws and regulations to ensure they operate within their intended purposes and suggests that the calibration of potential tensions between AML/CTF and privacy laws may be achieved through the innovative application of the proportionality principle.

Keywords: anti-money laundering and counter terrorism financing, central bank digital currency, privacy, proportionality principle

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Authors: Vladimir Stojanović, Marko D. Petković

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The vibration of a complex bogie system that moves on along the high order shear deformable beam on a viscoelastic foundation is studied. The complex bogie system has been modeled by elastically connected rigid bars on an identical supports. Elastic coupling between bars is introduced to simulate rigidly or flexibly (transversal or/and rotational) connection. Identical supports are modeled as a system of attached spring and dashpot to the bar on one side and interact with the beam through the concentrated mass on the other side. It is assumed that the masses and the beam are always in contact. New analytically determined critical velocity of the system is presented. It is analyzed the case when the complex bogie system exceeds the minimum phase velocity of waves in the beam when the vibration of the system may become unstable. Effect of an elastic coupling between bars on the stability of the system has been analyzed. The instability regions are found for the complex bogie system by applying the principle of the argument and D-decomposition method.

Keywords: Reddy-Bickford beam, D-decomposition method, principle of argument, critical velocity

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Authors: K. AlJimaz, A. Abdullah, A. Abdulsalam, K. Ebdah, A. Abdalrasheed

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Understanding flow distribution and head losses is essential to design and calculate Thermo fluid parameters in order to reduce the pressure to a certain required pressure. This paper discusses the ways acquired in design and simulation to create and design an impedance box that reduces pressure. It's controlled by specific scientific principles such as Bernoulli’s principle and conservation of mass. In this paper, the design is made using SOLIDWORKS, and the simulation is done using ANSYS software to solve differential equations and study the parameters in the 3D model, also to understand how the design of this box reduced the pressure. The design was made so that fluid enters at a certain pressure of 3000 Pa in a single inlet; then, it exits from six outlets at a pressure of 300 Pa with respect to the conservation of mass principle. The effect of the distribution of flow and the head losses has been noticed that it has an impact on reducing the pressure since other factors, such as friction, were neglected and also the temperature, which was constant. The design showed that the increase in length and diameter of the pipe helped to reduce the pressure, and the head losses contributed significantly to reduce the pressure to 10% of the original pressure (from 3000 Pa to 300 Pa) at the outlets.

Keywords: box, pressure, thermodynamics, 3D

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Authors: A. Fettahoglu

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Theory of viscoelasticity is used by many researchers to represent behavior of many materials such as pavements on roads or bridges. Several researches used analytical methods and rheology to predict the material behaviors of simple models. Today, more complex engineering structures are analyzed using Finite Element Method, in which material behavior is embedded by means of three dimensional viscoelastic material laws. As a result, structures of unordinary geometry and domain like pavements of bridges can be analyzed by means of Finite Element Method and three dimensional viscoelastic equations. In the scope of this study, rheological models embedded in ANSYS, namely, generalized Maxwell elements and Prony series, which are two methods used by ANSYS to represent viscoelastic material behavior, are presented explicitly. Subsequently, a practical problem, which has an analytical solution given in literature, is used to verify the applicability of viscoelasticity tool embedded in ANSYS. Finally, amount of error in the results of ANSYS is compared with the analytical results to indicate the influence of used method and time step size.

Keywords: generalized Maxwell model, finite element method, prony series, time step size, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Giselle Maggie Fer Castañeda, Diego Iván González

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The objective of this work was to study the autoshaped choice behavior in the Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) neural network model and analyze it under the matching law. Autoshaped choice can be viewed as a form of economic behavior defined as the preference between alternatives according to their relative outcomes. The Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) model is a connectionist proposal that unifies operant and Pavlovian conditioning. This model has been used for more than three decades as a neurobehavioral explanation of conditioning phenomena, as well as a generator of predictions suitable for experimental testing with non-human animals and humans. The study consisted of different simulations in which, in each one, a ratio of reinforcement was established for two alternatives, and the responses (i.e., activations) in each of them were measured. Choice studies with animals have demonstrated that the data generally conform closely to the generalized matching law equation, which states that the response ratio equals proportionally to the reinforcement ratio; therefore, it was expected to find similar results with the neural networks of the Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) model since these networks have simulated and predicted various conditioning phenomena. The results were analyzed by the generalized matching law equation, and it was observed that under some contingencies, the data from the networks adjusted approximately to what was established by the equation. Implications and limitations are discussed.

Keywords: matching law, neural networks, computational models, behavioral sciences

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Authors: Phani Kiran, Prabodha Manas Yarlagadda

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This paper attempts to treat Shakespeare’s tragic hero, Hamlet as an existential hero who faces many dilemmas in the process of taking revenge for his father’s murder. Hamlet can be considered as a predecessor of existentialism, and Shakespeare, as a pioneer, focused on some serious existential issues in the play much before they were fully developed in 20th century. Hamlet's internal struggles reflect existential themes such as alienation, despair, and the quest for authenticity. Hamlet’s famous soliloquy, "To be, or not to be," is a quintessential expression of existential ponderings, contemplating the choice between life and death and the uncertainty of what lies beyond. Hamlet grapples with existential questions like the purpose and meaninglessness of life, the nature of morality, the inevitability of death, and the existence of an afterlife. He doubts the authenticity of appearance and the reliability of his own perceptions, highlighting the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty of existence. Overall, "Hamlet" aligns with existential philosophy by exploring the complexities of human existence, the search for meaning, and the individual's struggle to find their place in an inherently uncertain and perplexing world. The character of Hamlet and the play's exploration of existential themes continue to resonate with audiences and provoke contemplation on the nature of life and the human experience.

Keywords: to be or not to be, death, dilemmas, illusion and reality

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Authors: Wu Di, Yeo Khoon Seng, Lim Tee Tai

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The typical insects employ a flapping-wing mode of flight. The numerical simulations on free flight of a model fruit fly (Re=143) including hovering and are presented in this paper. Unsteady aerodynamics around a flapping insect is studied by solving the three-dimensional Newtonian dynamics of the flyer coupled with Navier-Stokes equations. A hybrid-grid scheme (Generalized Finite Difference Method) that combines great geometry flexibility and accuracy of moving boundary definition is employed for obtaining flow dynamics. The results show good points of agreement and consistency with the outcomes and analyses of other researchers, which validate the computational model and demonstrate the feasibility of this computational approach on analyzing fluid phenomena in insect flight. The present modeling approach also offers a promising route of investigation that could complement as well as overcome some of the limitations of physical experiments in the study of free flight aerodynamics of insects. The results are potentially useful for the design of biomimetic flapping-wing flyers.

Keywords: free hovering flight, flapping wings, fruit fly, insect aerodynamics, leading edge vortex (LEV), computational fluid dynamics (CFD), Navier-Stokes equations (N-S), fluid structure interaction (FSI), generalized finite-difference method (GFD)

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

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A class of implicit systems is known as a more generalized class of systems than a class of explicit systems. To establish a control method for such a generalized class of systems, we adopt model predictive control method which is a kind of optimal feedback control with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. However, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In other words, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems with limited measurable states. In fact, it is usual that the state variables of systems are measured through outputs, hence, only limited parts of them can be used directly. It is also usual that output signals are disturbed by process and sensor noises. Hence, it is important to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear implicit systems with taking the process noise and sensor noise into consideration. To this purpose, we apply the model predictive control method and unscented Kalman filter for solving the optimization and estimation problems of nonlinear implicit systems, respectively. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control with unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear implicit systems.

Keywords: optimal control, nonlinear systems, state estimation, Kalman filter

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Authors: Ali Bhayani

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The article analyses determinants of the market entry modes used by corporate firms to expand internationally and explore whether higher education institutions uses the same determinants to decide on mode adopted to enter the market. Determinants like transaction costs, location advantage, idiosyncratic capabilities, isomorphic pressure to mimic, psychic distance, uncertainty, risks, the control over academic process, previous internationalisation experience and entry to homogenous markets are considered with regards to universities. A sample consisting of 40+ branch campuses from United Arab Emirates (UAE), host to highest number of branch campuses, is selected to study the determinants of the entry modes adopted. The aim of this article is not to prescribe or offer a solution for the best-available model of market entry that can be adopted by universities but rather to act as a trigger for a critical check up on universities planning to internationalize their offering. Determinants like idiosyncratic capabilities, isomorphic pressure and control over the academic process were found to be most prevalent. However, determinants like transaction cost efficiency, internationalisation experience, psychic distance, uncertainty and risks are not significant factors.

Keywords: higher education, UAE, internationalisation, market entry, international branch campuses

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Authors: Emmanuel Uba, Lily Chimuanya, Maryam Tar

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Orthographic engineering is no longer the preserve of the Short Messaging Service (SMS), which is characterised by limited space. Such stylistic creativity or deviation is fast creeping into real-time messaging, popularly known as Instant Messaging (IM), despite the large number of characters allowed. This occurs at various linguistic levels: phonology, morphology, syntax, etc. Nigerians are not immune to this linguistic stylisation. This study investigates the phonological and meta-phonological conventions of the messages sent and received via WhatsApp by Nigerian graduates. This is ontological study of 250 instant messages collected from 98 graduates from different ethnic groups in Nigeria. The selection and analysis of the messages are based on figure and ground principle. The results reveal the use of accent stylisation, phoneme substitution, blending, consonantisation (a specialised form of deletion targeting vowels), numerophony (using a figure/number, usually 1-10, to represent a word or syllable that has the same sound) and phonetic respelling in the IMs sent by Nigerians. The study confirms the existence of linguistic creativity.

Keywords: figure and ground principle, instant messaging, linguistic stylisation, meta-phonology

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Authors: Mohammad Bukhari, Oumar Barry

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In order to reduce the Aeolian vibration of overhead transmission lines, the Stockbridge damper is usually attached. The efficiency of Stockbridge damper depends on its location on the conductor and its resonant frequencies. When the Stockbridge damper is located on a vibration node, it becomes inefficient. Hence, the static damper should be subrogated by a dynamic one. In the present study, a proposed dynamic absorber for transmission lines is studied. Hamilton’s principle is used to derive the governing equations, then the system of ordinary differential equations is solved numerically. Parametric studies are conducted to determine how certain parameters affect the performance of the absorber. The results demonstrate that replacing the static absorber by a dynamic one enhance the absorber performance for wider range of frequencies. The results also indicate that the maximum displacement decreases as the absorber speed and the forcing frequency increase. However, this reduction in maximum displacement is accompanying with increasing in the steady state vibration displacement. It is also indicated that the energy dissipation in moving absorber covers higher range of frequencies.

Keywords: absorber performance, Aeolian vibration, Hamilton’s principle, stockbridge damper

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Authors: Ionel D. Craiu, Mihai Nedelcu

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Thin-walled cylinders are often used by the offshore industry as columns of floating installations. Based on observed strains, the inverse Finite Element Method (iFEM) may rebuild the deformation of structures. Structural Health Monitoring uses this approach extensively. However, the number of in-situ strain gauges is what determines how accurate it is, and for shell structures with complicated deformation, this number can easily become too high for practical use. Any thin-walled beam member's complicated deformation can be modeled by the Generalized Beam Theory (GBT) as a linear combination of pre-specified cross-section deformation modes. GBT uses bar finite elements as opposed to shell finite elements. This paper proposes an iFEM/GBT formulation for the shape sensing of thin-walled cylinders based on these benefits. This method significantly reduces the number of strain gauges compared to using the traditional inverse-shell finite elements. Using numerical simulations, dent damage detection is achieved by comparing the strain distributions of the undamaged and damaged members. The effect of noise on strain measurements is also investigated.

Keywords: damage detection, generalized beam theory, inverse finite element method, shape sensing

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Authors: Shahrokh Barati

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In this paper, we introduced AIDS disease at first, then proposed dynamic model illustrate its progress, after expression of a short history of nonlinear modeling by polynomial phasing systems, we considered the stability conditions of the systems, which contained a huge amount of researches in order to modeling and control of AIDS in dynamic nonlinear form, in this approach using a frame work of control any polynomial phasing modeling system which have been generalized by part of phasing model of T-S, in order to control the system in better way, the stability conditions were achieved based on polynomial functions, then we focused to design the appropriate controller, firstly we considered the equilibrium points of system and their conditions and in order to examine changes in the parameters, we presented polynomial phase model that was the generalized approach rather than previous Takagi Sugeno models, then with using case we evaluated the equations in both open loop and close loop and with helping the controlling feedback, the close loop equations of system were calculated, to simulate nonlinear model of AIDS disease, we used polynomial phasing controller output that was capable to make the parameters of a nonlinear system to follow a sustainable reference model properly.

Keywords: polynomial fuzzy, AIDS, nonlinear AIDS model, fuzzy control systems

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

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It is known that the most crucial influence of the psychological, social and emotional factors that affect any human behavior is to corrupt the rational decision making mechanism of the individuals and cause them to display irrational behaviors. In this regard, the social context of human beings influences the rationality of our decisions, and people tend to display different behaviors when they were alone compared to when they were surrounded by others. At this point, the interaction and interdependence of the behavioral finance and economics with the area of social psychology comes, where intentions and the behaviors of the individuals are being analyzed in the actual or implied presence of others comes into prominence. Within the context of this study, the prevalent theories of behavioral finance, which are The Prospect Theory, The Utility Theory Given Uncertainty and the Five Axioms of Choice under Uncertainty, Veblen’s Hidden Utility Theory, and the concept of ‘Overreaction’ has been examined and demonstrated; and the meaning, existence and validity of these theories together with the social context has been assessed. Finally, in this study the behavior of the individuals in financial crisis situations where the majority of the society is being affected from the same negative conditions at the same time has been analyzed, by taking into account how individual behavior will change according to the presence of the others.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

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Authors: Zeyu Zhang, Guisheng Yin, Ziying Zhang, Liguo Zhang

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This paper mainly studies the path planning method based on ant colony optimization (ACO), and proposes heuristic integration ant colony optimization (HIACO). This paper not only analyzes and optimizes the principle, but also simulates and analyzes the parameters related to the application of HIACO in path planning. Compared with the original algorithm, the improved algorithm optimizes probability formula, tabu table mechanism and updating mechanism, and introduces more reasonable heuristic factors. The optimized HIACO not only draws on the excellent ideas of the original algorithm, but also solves the problems of premature convergence, convergence to the sub optimal solution and improper exploration to some extent. HIACO can be used to achieve better simulation results and achieve the desired optimization. Combined with the probability formula and update formula, several parameters of HIACO are tested. This paper proves the principle of the HIACO and gives the best parameter range in the research of path planning.

Keywords: ant colony optimization, heuristic integration, path planning, probability formula

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Authors: Petra Palic, Maruska Vizek

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We provide an in-depth analysis of interdependence of asset returns and volatilities in developed and developing countries. The analysis is split into three parts. In the first part, we use multivariate GARCH model in order to provide stylized facts on cross-market volatility spillovers. In the second part, we use a generalized vector autoregressive methodology developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) in order to estimate separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers among sovereign bond, equity, foreign exchange and commodity markets. In particular, our analysis is focused on cross-market return, and volatility spillovers in 19 developed and developing countries. In order to estimate named spillovers, we use daily data from 2008 to 2017. In the third part of the analysis, we use a generalized vector autoregressive framework in order to estimate total and directional volatility spillovers. We use the same daily data span for one developed and one developing country in order to characterize daily volatility spillovers across stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodities markets.

Keywords: cross-market spillovers, sovereign bond markets, equity markets, value at risk (VAR)

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Authors: Rizqi W. Romadhon, Nur Arifan

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Halal Tourism is a part of tourism industry which is based on Islamic Principle and addressed to the Muslim tourist. The potency of halal tourism is very broad to be developed, because the growth of Muslim populations is rapidly increasing. Indonesia is one of the biggest countries with Majority of its population is Muslim, therefore human resources and natural resources have very good potential to be part of the Halal tourism industry. But the fact is Indonesia can not optimize the potential of human resources and natural resources as well as neighboring countries carried out. This paper will discuss the reasons of the importance of developing Halal tourism, and the factors influencing the success of developing halal tourism in Indonesia, and also the optimization strategies which can be adopted by the government so that the Halal tourism industry in Indonesia has a sustainable competitive advantage. The existence of this research is expected to government, tourism agents and others can optimize the potency of Indonesia’s Human resources and natural resources for developing Halal tourism industry in Indonesia.

Keywords: halal tourism, Islamic principle, optimization, sustainable competitive advantage

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Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

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The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

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Authors: Omar Sorour, Michael Leahy, Thomas Irvine, Vladimir Koren

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Introduction: Covid encephalitis is a rare yet dangerous complication, particularly affecting the older and immunocompromised. Symptoms range from confusion to delirium, coma, and seizures. Although neurological manifestations have become more well-characterized in COVID patients, little is known about whether priorneurological abnormalities may predispose patients to COVID encephalopathy. Case Description: A 73 y.o. male with a CT and MRI-confirmed stable, prior 9 mm cavernoma in the right frontal lobe and no past history of seizures was hospitalized with generalized weakness, abdominal pain, nausea, and shortness of breath with subsequent COVID pneumonia. Three days after the initial presentation, the patient developed a spontaneous generalized tonic-clonic seizure consistent with presumed COVID encephalitis, along with somnolence and confusion. A day later, the patient had two other seizure episodes. Follow-up EEG suggested an inter-ictal epileptic focus with sharp waves corresponding to roughly the same location as the patient’s pre-existing cavernoma. The patient’s seizures stopped shortly thereafter, while his encephalopathy continued for days. Conclusion: We illustrate that a pre-existing anatomic cortical abnormality may act as a potential nidus for new-onset seizure activity in the context of suggested COVID encephalopathy. Future studies may further demonstrate that manifestations of COVIDencephalopathy in certain patients may be more predictable than initially assumed.

Keywords: cavernoma, covid, encephalopathy, seizures

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Rujijan Vichivanives, Kittiya Poonsilp, Canasanan Wanavijit

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This research aims to create mobile tools to analyze rice disease quickly and easily. The principle of object-oriented software engineering and objective-C language were used for software development methodology and the principle of decision tree technique was used for analysis method. Application users can select the features of rice disease or the color appears on the rice leaves for recognition analysis results on iOS mobile screen. After completing the software development, unit testing and integrating testing method were used to check for program validity. In addition, three plant experts and forty farmers have been assessed for usability and benefit of this system. The overall of users’ satisfaction was found in a good level, 57%. The plant experts give a comment on the addition of various disease symptoms in the database for more precise results of the analysis. For further research, it is suggested that image processing system should be developed as a tool that allows users search and analyze for rice diseases more convenient with great accuracy.

Keywords: rice disease, data analysis system, mobile application, iOS operating system

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Authors: Cezary Kulesza, Katarzyna Lapinska

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Regarding the nature of the notion of fair trial, one must see the source of the fair trial principle in the following acts of international law: art. 6 of the ECHR of 1950 and art.14 the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights of 1966, as well as in art. 45 of the Polish Constitution. However, the problem is that the above-mentioned acts essentially apply the principle of a fair trial to the main hearing and not to appeal proceedings. Therefore, the main thesis of the work is to answer the question whether the Polish model of appeal proceedings is fair. The paper presents the problem of fair appeal proceedings in Poland in comparative perspective. Thus, the authors discuss the basic features of English, German and Russian appeal systems. The matter is also analysed in the context of the last reforms of Polish criminal procedure, because since 2013 Polish parliament has significantly changed criminal procedure almost three times: by the Act of 27th September, 2013, the Act of 20th February, 2015 which came into effect on 1st July, 2015 and the Act of 11th March, 2016. The most astonishing is that these three amendments have been varying from each other – changing Polish criminal procedure to more adversarial one and then rejecting all measures just involved in previous acts. Additional intent of the Polish legislator was amending the forms of plea bargaining: conviction of the defendant without trial or voluntary submission to a penalty, which were supposed to become tools allowing accelerating the criminal process and, at the same time, implementing the principle of speedy procedure. The next part of the paper will discuss the matter, how the changes of plea bargaining and the main trial influenced the appellate procedure in Poland. The authors deal with the right to appeal against judgments issued in negotiated case-ending settlements in the light of Art. 2 of Protocol No. 7 to the ECHR and the Polish Constitution. The last part of the presentation will focus on the basic changes in the appeals against judgments issued after the main trial. This part of the paper also presents the results of examination of court files held in the Polish Appeal Courts in Białystok, Łódź and Warsaw. From these considerations it is concluded that the Polish CCP of 1997 in ordinary proceedings basically meets both standards: the standard adopted in Protocol No. 7 of the Convention and the Polish constitutional standard. But the examination of case files shows in particular the following phenomena: low effectiveness of appeals and growing stability of the challenged judgments of district courts, extensive duration of appeal proceedings and narrow scope of evidence proceedings before the appellate courts. On the other hand, limitations of the right to appeal against the judgments issued in consensual modes of criminal proceedings justify the fear that such final judgments may violate the principle of criminal accurate response or the principle of material truth.

Keywords: adversarial trial, appeal, ECHR, England, evidence, fair trial, Germany, Polish criminal procedure, reform, Russia

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Authors: Brandtner-Hafner Martin

Abstract:

Adhesives are increasingly being used in the construction sector. On the one hand, this concerns dowel reinforcements using chemical anchors. On the other hand, the sealing and repair of cracks in structural concrete components are still on the rise. In the field of bonding, the interface between the joined materials is the most critical area. Therefore, it is of immense importance to characterize and investigate this section sufficiently by fracture analysis. Since standardized mechanical test methods are not sufficiently capable of doing this, recourse is made to an innovative concept based on fracture energy. Therefore, a series of experimental tests were performed using the so-called GF-principle to study the interface bonding safety of adhesively bonded concrete joints. Several different structural adhesive systems based on epoxy, CA/A hybrid, PUR, MS polymer, dispersion, and acrylate were selected for bonding concrete substrates. The results show that stable crack propagation and prevention of uncontrolled failure in bonded concrete joints depend very much on the adhesive system used, and only fracture analytical evaluation methods can provide empirical information on this.

Keywords: interface bonding safety, adhesively bonded concrete joints, GF-principle, fracture analysis

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Authors: Majed Ahmadi

Abstract:

In recent years, the high penetration of different types of renewable energy sources (RESs) has affected most of the available strategies. The main motivations behind the high penetration of RESs are clean energy, modular system and easy installation. Among different types of RESs, wind turbine (WT) is an interesting choice referring to the availability of wind in almost any area. The new technologies of WT can provide energy from residential applications to wide grid connected applications. Regarding the WT, advantages such as reducing the dependence on fossil fuels and enhancing the independence and flexibility of large power grid are the most prominent. Nevertheless, the high volatile nature of wind speed injects much uncertainty in the grid that if not managed optimally can put the analyses far from the reality.the aim of this project is scrutiny and to offer proper ways for renewing distribution networks with envisage the effects of wind power plants and uncertainties related to distribution systems including wind power generating plants output rate and consumers consuming rate and also decrease the incidents of the whole network losses, amount of pollution, voltage refraction and cost extent.to solve this problem we use dual point estimate method.And algorithm used in this paper is reformed bat algorithm, which will be under exact research furthermore the results.

Keywords: order renewal, wind turbines, bat algorithm, outspread production, uncertainty

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Authors: Najrullah Khan, Athar Ali Khan

Abstract:

The Topp-Leone distribution was introduced by Topp- Leone in 1955. In this paper, an attempt has been made to fit Topp-Leone Generalized exponential (TPGE) distribution. A real survival data set is used for illustrations. Implementation is done using R and JAGS and appropriate illustrations are made. R and JAGS codes have been provided to implement censoring mechanism using both optimization and simulation tools. The main aim of this paper is to describe and illustrate the Bayesian modelling approach to the analysis of survival data. Emphasis is placed on the modeling of data and the interpretation of the results. Crucial to this is an understanding of the nature of the incomplete or 'censored' data encountered. Analytic approximation and simulation tools are covered here, but most of the emphasis is on Markov chain based Monte Carlo method including independent Metropolis algorithm, which is currently the most popular technique. For analytic approximation, among various optimization algorithms and trust region method is found to be the best. In this paper, TPGE model is also used to analyze the lifetime data in Bayesian paradigm. Results are evaluated from the above mentioned real survival data set. The analytic approximation and simulation methods are implemented using some software packages. It is clear from our findings that simulation tools provide better results as compared to those obtained by asymptotic approximation.

Keywords: Bayesian Inference, JAGS, Laplace Approximation, LaplacesDemon, posterior, R Software, simulation

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alsadhan, Naveed Khan

Abstract:

In recent years intrusions on computer network are the major security threat. Hence, it is important to impede such intrusions. The hindrance of such intrusions entirely relies on its detection, which is primary concern of any security tool like Intrusion Detection System (IDS). Therefore, it is imperative to accurately detect network attack. Numerous intrusion detection techniques are available but the main issue is their performance. The performance of IDS can be improved by increasing the accurate detection rate and reducing false positive. The existing intrusion detection techniques have the limitation of usage of raw data set for classification. The classifier may get jumble due to redundancy, which results incorrect classification. To minimize this problem, Principle Component Analysis (PCA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Local Binary Pattern (LBP) can be applied to transform raw features into principle features space and select the features based on their sensitivity. Eigen values can be used to determine the sensitivity. To further classify, the selected features greedy search, back elimination, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) can be used to obtain a subset of features with optimal sensitivity and highest discriminatory power. These optimal feature subset used to perform classification. For classification purpose, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) used due to its proven ability in classification. The Knowledge Discovery and Data mining (KDD’99) cup dataset was considered as a benchmark for evaluating security detection mechanisms. The proposed approach can provide an optimal intrusion detection mechanism that outperforms the existing approaches and has the capability to minimize the number of features and maximize the detection rates.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Principle Component Analysis (PCA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Local Binary Pattern (LBP), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)

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Authors: Irmina Miernicka

Abstract:

Nowadays, dress codes and widely understood appearance are becoming more important in the workplace. They are often used in the workplace to standardize image of an employer, to communicate a corporate image and ensure that customers can easily identify it. It is also a way to build professionalism of employer. Additionally, in many cases, an employer will introduce a dress code for health and safety reasons. Employers more often oblige employees to follow certain rules concerning their clothing, grooming, make-up, body art or even weight. An important research problem is to find the limits of the employer's interference with the external appearance of employees. They are primarily determined by the two main obligations of the employer, i. e. the obligation to respect the employee's personal rights and the principle of equal treatment and non-discrimination in employment. It should also be remembered that the limits of the employer's interference will be different when certain rules concerning the employee's appearance result directly from the provisions of laws and other acts of universally binding law (workwear, official clothing, and uniform). The analysis of this issue was based on literature and jurisprudence, both domestic and foreign, including the U.S. and European case law, and led the author to put forward a thesis that there are four main principles, which will protect the employer from the allegation of discrimination. First, it is the principle of adequacy - the means requirements regarding dress code must be appropriate to the position and type of work performed by the employee. Secondly, in accordance with the purpose limitation principle, an employer may introduce certain requirements regarding the appearance of employees if there is a legitimate, objective justification for this (such as work safety or type of work performed), not dictated by the employer's subjective feelings and preferences. Thirdly, these requirements must not place an excessive burden on workers and be disproportionate in relation to the employer's objective (principle of proportionality). Fourthly, the employer should also ensure that the requirements imposed in the workplace are equally burdensome and enforceable from all groups of employees. Otherwise, it may expose itself to grounds of discrimination based on sex or age. At the same time, it is also possible to differentiate the situation of some employees if these differences are small and reflect established habits and traditions and if employees are obliged to maintain the same level of professionalism in their positions. Although this subject may seem to be insignificant, frequent application of dress codes and increasing awareness of both employees and employers indicate that its legal aspects need to be thoroughly analyzed. Many legal cases brought before U.S. and European courts show that employees look for legal protection when they consider that their rights are violated by dress code introduced in a workplace.

Keywords: labor law, the appearance of an employee, discrimination in the workplace, dress code in a workplace

Procedia PDF Downloads 103