Search results for: vessel's survival probability

Authors: Mesfin Nigussie Ibido

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The study is designed to explore the effects of land certification in securing women’s land rights of two rural villages in Robe district at Arsi Zone of Oromia regional state. The land is very critical assets for human life survival and the backbone for rural women livelihood. Equal access and control power to the land have given a chance for rural women to participate in different economic activities and improve their bargaining ability for decision making on their rights. Unfortunately, women were discriminated and marginalized from access and control of land for centuries through customary practices. However, in many countries, legal reform is used as a powerful tool for eliminating discriminatory provisions in property rights. Among other equity and efficiency concerns, the land certification program in Ethiopia attempts to address gender bias concerns of the current land-tenure system. The existed rural land policy was recognizing a women land rights and benefited by strengthened wives awareness of their land rights and contribute to the strong involvement of wives in decision making. However, harmful practices and policy implementation problems still against women do not fully exercise a provision of land rights in a different area of the country. Thus, this study is carried out to examine the effect of land certification in securing women’s land rights by eliminating the discriminatory nature of cultural abuses of study areas. Probability and non-probability sampling types were used, and the sample size was determined by using the sampling distribution of the proportion method. Systematic random sampling method was applied by taking the nth element of the sample frame. Both quantitative and qualitative research methods were applied, and survey respondents of 192 households were conducted and administering questionnaires in the quantitative method. The qualitative method was applied by interviews with focus group discussions with rural women, case stories, Village, and relevant district offices. Triangulation method was applied in data collection, data presentation and in the analysis of findings. Study finding revealed that the existence of land certification is affected by rural women positively by advancing their land rights, but still, some women are challenged by unsolved problems in the study areas. The study forwards recommendation on the existed problems or gaps to ensure women’s equal access to and control over land in the study areas.

Keywords: decision making, effects, land certification, land right, tenure security

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Authors: Patarapan Odton

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This study investigates demographic and socio-economic factors of breastfeeding practice, including exclusively breastfeeding among children in Thailand using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS3 and MICS4). Logistic regression models were used to examine the determinants of initial breastfeeding, exclusively breastfeeding, and predominant breastfeeding, using data from women and children section of the survey. For initial breastfeeding, women live in rural area were more likely to start breastfeeding within one day of birth rather than who live in urban area in both round of the surveys. In year 2012, there were significantly higher probabilities of women in rural area started breastfeeding within one hour of birth compare to urban area. Women in southern Thailand have higher probabilities of start breastfeeding within one hour and one day than women in Bangkok and central region. During the year 2005-2006, children aged less than 5 years old lived in rural area have been breastfed higher than children in urban area. Children live in the northeast region were more likely to have been breastfed than the other regions. Only the second wealth quintile group was significant higher probability of ever been breastfed than the poorest group. The findings in the second round of the survey are different from the year 2005-06. In 2012, there was no difference in probability of ever been breastfed among children live in urban and rural area, children in Bangkok and central region were less probability of ever been breastfed than the others.

Keywords: Breastfeeding, Exclusive Breastfeeding, Predominant Breastfeeding, Urban-Rural Difference

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Muhammad Muzamal, Anders Rasmuson

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Wood material is extensively considered as a raw material for the production of bio-polymers, bio-fuels and value-added chemicals. However, the shortcoming in using wood as raw material is that the enzymatic hydrolysis of wood material is difficult because the accessibility of enzymes to hemicelluloses and cellulose is hindered by complex chemical and physical structure of the wood. The steam explosion (SE) pre-treatment improves the digestion of wood material by creating both chemical and physical modifications in wood. In this process, first, wood chips are treated with steam at high pressure and temperature for a certain time in a steam treatment vessel. During this time, the chemical linkages between lignin and polysaccharides are cleaved and stiffness of material decreases. Then the steam discharge valve is rapidly opened and the steam and wood chips exit the vessel at very high speed. These fast moving wood chips collide with each other and with walls of the equipment and disintegrate to small pieces. More damaged and disintegrated wood have larger surface area and increased accessibility to hemicelluloses and cellulose. The energy required for an increase in specific surface area by same value is 70 % more in conventional mechanical technique, i.e. attrition mill as compared to steam explosion process. The mechanism of wood disintegration during the SE pre-treatment is very little studied. In this study, we have simulated collision and impact of wood chips (dimension 20 mm x 20 mm x 4 mm) with each other and with walls of the vessel. The wood chips are simulated as a 3D orthotropic material. Damage and fracture in the wood material have been modelled using 3D Hashin’s damage model. This has been accomplished by developing a user-defined subroutine and implementing it in the FE software ABAQUS. The elastic and strength properties used for simulation are of spruce wood at 12% and 30 % moisture content and at 20 and 160 OC because the impacted wood chips are pre-treated with steam at high temperature and pressure. We have simulated several cases to study the effects of elastic and strength properties of wood, velocity of moving chip and orientation of wood chip at the time of impact on the damage in the wood chips. The disintegration patterns captured by simulations are very similar to those observed in experimentally obtained steam exploded wood. Simulation results show that the wood chips moving with higher velocity disintegrate more. Moisture contents and temperature decreases elastic properties and increases damage. Impact and collision in specific directions cause easy disintegration. This model can be used to efficiently design the steam explosion equipment.

Keywords: dynamic simulation, disintegration of wood, impact, steam explosion pretreatment

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Authors: Akash Verma, Sujit Kumar Samanta

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This study examines a discrete-time Geo/G/1 queueing-inventory system attached with (s, Q) inventory policy. Assume that the customers follow the Bernoulli process on arrival. Each customer demands a single item with arbitrarily distributed service time. The inventory is replenished by an outside supplier, and the lead time for the replenishment is determined by a geometric distribution. There is a single server and infinite waiting space in this facility. Demands must wait in the specified waiting area during a stock-out period. The customers are served on a first-come-first-served basis. With the help of the embedded Markov chain technique, we determine the joint probability distributions of the number of customers in the system and the number of items in stock at the post-departure epoch using the Matrix Analytic approach. We relate the system length distribution at post-departure and outside observer's epochs to determine the joint probability distribution at the outside observer's epoch. We use probability distributions at random epochs to determine the waiting time distribution. We obtain the performance measures to construct the cost function. The optimum values of the order quantity and reordering point are found numerically for the variety of model parameters.

Keywords: discrete-time queueing inventory model, matrix analytic method, waiting-time analysis, cost optimization

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Authors: Ariyan S. Araghi, Guy C. Jackson, Stephen J. Bonsor

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Materials & Methods: A systematic literature search was undertaken using pre-determined inclusion and exclusion criteria. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. Several databases were used to search for randomised control trials and longitudinal cohort studies, which were published less than thirty years ago. A total of 54 studies met the predefined inclusion criteria. Four studies reviewed the success, survival, and failure characteristics of zirconia framework resin retained bridges, whilst two reviewed non-precious metal resin retained bridges. Results: The analysis of the studies revealed an overall survival rate of 95.9% for zirconia-based restorations compared to 90.7% for non-precious metal frameworks. Non-precious metal resin retained bridges displayed a higher overall failure rate of 11.9% compared to 4.6% for zirconia-based restorations in the analysed papers. The most frequent complications were wing debonding for the non-precious metal wing group, whereas substructure fracture and veneering ceramic fracture were more prevalent for the zirconia arm of the study. Conclusion: Both types of resin retained bridges provide effective medium to long-term survival. Zirconia-based frameworks will provide marginally increased success and survival and greatly improved aesthetics. However, catastrophic failure is more likely with zirconia-based restorations. Non-precious metal is time tested but performs worse than its zirconia counterpart with regards to longevity; it does not exhibit the same framework fractures as zirconia. Cement choice and attention to the adhesive bonding systems used appear to be paramount to restoration longevity with both restoration subtypes. Furthermore, improved longevity can be seen when air particle abrasion is incorporated into the adhesive protocol. Within the limitations of this study, it has been determined that zirconia-based resin retained bridges can be effectively used in anterior cantilever bridges. Clinical Significance: Zirconia-based resin retained bridges have been demonstrating promising results in terms of improved success and survival characteristics, together with improved aesthetics when compared to non-precious metal winged resin retained bridges. Their popularity is increasing in the age of digital dentistry as many restorations are manufactured using such technology. It is essential that clinicians understand the limitations of each material type and principles of adhesion to ensure restoration longevity.

Keywords: resin retained bridge, fixed partial denture, zirconia bridge, adhesive bridge

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Authors: Bhawna Chandravanshi, Ramesh Bhonde

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In the present study, we focused on the improvisation of islet survival in hypoxia. The Islet-like cell aggregates (ICAs) derived from Wharton's jelly mesenchymal stem cells (WJ-MSC) were cultured with and without WJ-MSC for 48h in hypoxia and normoxia and tested for their direct trophic effect on β cell survival. The WJ MSCs themselves secreted insulin upon glucose challenge and expressed the pancreatic markers at both transcription and translational level (C-peptide, Insulin, Glucagon and Glut 2). Direct contact of MSCs with ICAs facilitate the highest viability under hypoxia as evidenced by fluorescein diacetate/propidium iodide and 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay. The cytokine analysis of the co-cultured ICAs revealed amplification of anti-inflammatory cytokine-like TGFβ and TNFα accompanied by depletion of pro-inflammatory cytokines. The increment in VEGF and PDGFa was also seen showing their ability to vascularize upon transplantation. This was further accompanied by reduction in total reactive oxygen species, nitric oxide, and super oxide ions and down-regulation of Caspase3, Caspase8, p53 and up regulation of Bcl2 confirming prevention of apoptosis in ICAs. There was a significant reduction in the expression of p38 protein in the presence of MSCs making the ICAs responsive to glucose. Taken together our data demonstrate for the first time that the WJ-MSC expressed pancreatic markers and their supplementation protected engineered islets against hypoxia, oxidative stress, and inflammatory cytokines by inhibiting p38 MAPK protein.

Keywords: hypoxia, islet-like cell aggregates, inflammatory cytokines, oxidative stress

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Authors: Shi-xia Xu, Zai-wen Zhang, Ru-xue Chen, Shan Zhou, Xiang-feng Tang

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Objective: The clinical influence of HLA-DPB1 mismatches on clinical outcome of HSCT is less clear. This is the first meta-analysis to study the HLA-DPB1 matching statues on clinical outcomes after unrelated donor HSCT. Methods: We searched the CIBMTR, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and related databases (1995.01–2017.06) for all relevant articles. Comparative studies were used to investigate the HLA-DPB1 loci mismatches on clinical outcomes after unrelated donor HSCT, such as the disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival, GVHD, relapse, and transplant-related mortality (TRM). We performed meta-analysis using Review Manager 5.2 software and funnel plot to assess the bias. Results: At first, 1246 articles were retrieved, and 18 studies totaling 26368 patients analyzed. Pooled comparisons of studies found that the HLA-DPB1 mismatched group had a lower rate of DFS than the DPB1-matched group, and lower OS in non-T cell depleted transplantation. The DPB1 mismatched group has a higher incidence of aGVHD and more severe ( ≥ III degree) aGvHD, lower rate of relapse and higher TRM. Moreover, compared with 1-antigen mismatch, 2-antigen mismatched led to a higher risk of TRM and lower relapse rate. Conclusions: This meta-analysis indicated HLA-DPB1 has important influence on survival and transplant-related complications during unrelated donor HSCT and HLA-DPB1 donor selection strategies have been proposed based on a personalized algorithm.

Keywords: human leukocyte antigen, DPB1, transplant, meta-analysis, outcome

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Authors: Suphat Rittirat, Sutha Klaocheed, Somporn Prasertsongskun, Kanchit Thammasiri

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Protocorms of Phalaenopsis cornu-cervi (Breda) Blume & Rchb. f. were successfully cryopreserved using a vitrification method. Two-month old protocorms at GI 4 stage were precultured in liquid MS medium supplemented with different concentrations of sucrose (0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9 and 1.2 M) at 25±1°C for 2 days on an orbital shaker at 110 rpm. The protocorms were treated with loading solution (2 M glycerol plus 0.4 M sucrose) for 20 minutes at 25±1°C. Then, the protocorms were sufficiently dehydrated with vitrification solution (plant vitrification solution 2, PVS2) for various times (0, 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes) at 25±1°C and stored in liquid nitrogen for 1 day. After rapid thawing in water bath at 40°C for 2 minutes, the explants were washed by MS liquid medium containing 0.5 ml of 1.2 M sucrose for 20 minutes. The results shown that the protocorms were precultured in liquid MS medium containing 0.5 M sucrose and dehydrated with vitrification solution for 60 minutes had the highest survival percentage of protocorm at 31±1.0 % as measured by Evan’s blue. No survival rate of protocorms was found without vitrification treatments.

Keywords: protocorms, cryopreservation, Phalaenopsis cornu-cervi, vitrification

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Authors: David Jurado, Carlos Ávila

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Detection of early signs of breast cancer development is crucial to quickly diagnose the disease and to define adequate treatment to increase the survival probability of the patient. Computer Aided Detection systems (CADs), along with modern data techniques such as Machine Learning (ML) and Neural Networks (NN), have shown an overall improvement in digital mammography cancer diagnosis, reducing the false positive and false negative rates becoming important tools for the diagnostic evaluations performed by specialized radiologists. However, ML and NN-based algorithms rely on datasets that might bring issues to the segmentation tasks. In the present work, an automatic segmentation and detection algorithm is described. This algorithm uses image processing techniques along with the Hough transform to automatically identify microcalcifications that are highly correlated with breast cancer development in the early stages. Along with image processing, automatic segmentation of high-contrast objects is done using edge extraction and circle Hough transform. This provides the geometrical features needed for an automatic mask design which extracts statistical features of the regions of interest. The results shown in this study prove the potential of this tool for further diagnostics and classification of mammographic images due to the low sensitivity to noisy images and low contrast mammographies.

Keywords: breast cancer, segmentation, X-ray imaging, hough transform, image analysis

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Authors: Jason Salim, Zhouyang Lu

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Private sector involvement in Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects may raise public suspicion, as PPP is often mistaken as merely a partnership between private and government agencies without consideration for greater “public” (community). This public marginalization is crucial to be dealt with because undermining opinion of majority may cause problems such as protests and/ or low demand. Game theory approach applied in this paper shows that probability of public acceptance towards a project is affected by overall public’s perception on Private sectors’ possible profit accumulation from the project. On the contrary, goodwill of the government and private coalition alone is not enough to minimize the probability of public opposition towards a PPP project. Additionally, the threat of loss or damage raised from public opposition does not affect the profit-maximization behavior of Private sectors.

Keywords: community satisfaction, game theory, non-cooperative, PPP, public policy

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Authors: Mathinee Khongsatid, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Saengchai

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This research aims to study the democratic political socialization of the 5th and 6th Graders under the Authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean and standard deviation. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok, have displayed some characteristics following democratic political socialization both inside and outside classroom as well as outside school. However, the democratic political socialization in classroom through grouping and class participation is much more emphasized.

Keywords: democratic, political socialization, students grades 5-6, descriptive statistics

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Authors: M. R. Aher, R. B. Laware, G. S. Asane, B. S. Kuchekar

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Objective: Studies have shown that a new combination therapy with Artemisinin derivatives and curcumin is unique, with potential advantages over known ACTs. In present study an attempt was made to prepare microparticulate drug delivery system of Curcumin-Zn complex and evaluate it in combination with artemether for antimalarial activity. Material and method: Curcumin Zn complex was prepared and encapsulated using sodium alginate. Microparticles thus obtained are further coated with various enteric polymers at different coating thickness to control the release. Microparticles are evaluated for encapsulation efficiency, drug loading and in vitro drug release. Roentgenographic Studies was conducted in rabbits with BaSO 4 tagged formulation. Optimized formulation was screened for antimalarial activity using P. berghei-infected mice survival test and % paracetemia inhibition, alone (three oral dose of 5mg/day) and in combination with arthemether (i.p. 500, 1000 and 1500µg). Curcumin-Zn(II) was estimated in serum after oral administration to rats by using spectroflurometry. Result: Microparticles coated with Cellulose acetate phthalate showed most satisfactory and controlled release with 479 min time for 60% drug release. X-ray images taken at different time intervals confirmed the retention of formulation in GI tract. Estimation of curcumin in serum by spectroflurometry showed that drug concentration is maintained in the blood for longer time with tmax of 6 hours. The survival time (40 days post treatment) of mice infected with P. berghei was compared to survival after treatment with either Curcumin-Zn(II) microparticles artemether combination, curcumin-Zn complex and artemether. Oral administration of Curcumin-Zn(II)-artemether prolonged the survival of P.berghei-infected mice. All the mice treated with Curcumin-Zn(II) microparticles (5mg/day) artemether (1000µg) survived for more than 40 days and recovered with no detectable parasitemia. Administration of Curcumin-Zn(II) artemether combination reduced the parasitemia in mice by more than 90% compared to that in control mice for the first 3 days after treatment. Conclusion: Antimalarial activity of the curcumin Zn-artemether combination was more pronounced than mono therapy. A single dose of 1000µg of artemether in curcumin-Zn combination gives complete protection in P. berghei-infected mice. This may reduce the chances of drug resistance in malaria management.

Keywords: formulation, microparticulate drug delivery, antimalarial, pharmaceutics

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Authors: Chirag Raval, Jimmy Toussaint, Tieuvi Nguyen, Hadi Fadaifard, George Wolberg, Steven Quarfordt, Kung-ming Jan, David S. Rumschitzki

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Numerous studies examine aquaporins’ role in osmotic water transport in various systems but virtually none focus on aquaporins’ role in hydrostatically-driven water transport involving mammalian cells save for our laboratory’s recent study of aortic endothelial cells. Here we investigate aquaporin-1 expression and function in the aortic endothelium in two high-renin rat models of hypertension, the spontaneously hypertensive genomically altered Wystar-Kyoto rat variant and Sprague-Dawley rats made hypertensive by two kidney, one clip Goldblatt surgery. We measured aquaporin-1 expression in aortic endothelial cells from whole rat aortas by quantitative immunohistochemistry, and function by measuring the pressure driven hydraulic conductivities of excised rat aortas with both intact and denuded endothelia on the same vessel. We use them to calculate the effective intimal hydraulic conductivity, which is a combination of endothelial and subendothelial components. We observed well-correlated enhancements in aquaporin-1 expression and function in both hypertensive rat models as well as in aortas from normotensive rats whose expression was upregulated by 2h forskolin treatment. Upregulated aquaporin-1 expression and function may be a response to hypertension that critically determines conduit artery vessel wall viability and long-term susceptibility to atherosclerosis. Numerous studies examine aquaporins’ role in osmotic water transport in various systems but virtually none focus on aquaporins’ role in hydrostatically-driven water transport involving mammalian cells save for our laboratory’s recent study of aortic endothelial cells. Here we investigate aquaporin-1 expression and function in the aortic endothelium in two high-renin rat models of hypertension, the spontaneously hypertensive genomically altered Wystar-Kyoto rat variant and Sprague-Dawley rats made hypertensive by two kidney, one clip Goldblatt surgery. We measured aquaporin-1 expression in aortic endothelial cells from whole rat aortas by quantitative immunohistochemistry, and function by measuring the pressure driven hydraulic conductivities of excised rat aortas with both intact and denuded endothelia on the same vessel. We use them to calculate the effective intimal hydraulic conductivity, which is a combination of endothelial and subendothelial components. We observed well-correlated enhancements in aquaporin-1 expression and function in both hypertensive rat models as well as in aortas from normotensive rats whose expression was upregulated by 2h forskolin treatment. Upregulated aquaporin-1 expression and function may be a response to hypertension that critically determines conduit artery vessel wall viability and long-term susceptibility to atherosclerosis.

Keywords: acute hypertension, aquaporin-1, hydraulic conductivity, hydrostatic pressure, aortic endothelial cells, transcellular flow

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Authors: Faycal Boughalleb, Raoudha Abdellaoui

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The effect of NaCl stress on root and leaf anatomy was investigated in three Astragalus species grown in 0-300 mM NaCl for 30 days under greenhouse conditions. Root cross section and cortex thickness was reduced under salt stress in both species while A. tenuifolius showed thinner cortex and the root cross section was unchanged. The epidermis stele thickness was unaffected by salinity in A. armatus and A. tenuifolius and was reduced in A. mareoticus with smaller xylem vessel size. In addition, vessel density and wall thickness of xylem was increased under salt conditions in the studies species. The entire lamina and mesophyll of the three species were thinner in salt-stressed plants. A. armatus and A. tenuifolius showed the higher thickness with increased size of the lower epidermis. NaCl (300 mM) reduced leaf water content by 41.5 % in A. mareoticus while it was unchanged in the other species. The size of the vascular bundle increased under salinity in A. tenuifolius leaves and it was unchanged in the other ones. A longer distance between leaf vascular bundle was occurred in A. mareoticus. The effects of NaCl on root and leaf ultrastructure are discussed in relation to the degree of salt resistance of these species. The unchanged biomass production under salt stress confirmed the higher tolerance oft A. tenuifolius to salinity. A. armatus was moderately salt tolerant with decrease of biomass production by 14.2 % while A. mareoticus was considered as salt sensitive plant when the decrease in biomass production reached 56.8%.

Keywords: Astragalus species, leaf ultrastructure, root anatomy, salt stress

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Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras

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Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.

Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk

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Authors: Salim H. Al Salmani, Kevin Tansey, Mohammed S. Ozigis

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The study of the growth of built-up areas and settlement expansion is a major exercise that city managers seek to undertake to establish previous and current developmental trends. This is to ensure that there is an equal match of settlement expansion needs to the appropriate levels of services and infrastructure required. This research aims at demonstrating the potential of satellite image processing technique, harnessing the utility of single feature probability-object based image analysis technique in assessing the urban growth dynamics of the Muscat Governorate in Oman for the period 1990, 2002 and 2013. This need is fueled by the continuous expansion of the Muscat Governorate beyond predicted levels of infrastructural provision. Landsat Images of the years 1990, 2002 and 2013 were downloaded and preprocessed to forestall appropriate radiometric and geometric standards. A novel approach of probability filtering of the target feature segment was implemented to derive the spatial extent of the final Built-Up Area of the Muscat governorate for the three years period. This however proved to be a useful technique as high accuracy assessment results of 55%, 70%, and 71% were recorded for the Urban Landcover of 1990, 2002 and 2013 respectively. Furthermore, the Normalized Differential Built – Up Index for the various images were derived and used to consolidate the results of the SFP-OBIA through a linear regression model and visual comparison. The result obtained showed various hotspots where urbanization have sporadically taken place. Specifically, settlement in the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Amarat, Muscat, and Qurayyat experienced tremendous change between 1990 and 2002, while the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Seeb, Bawshar, and Muttrah experienced more sporadic changes between 2002 and 2013.

Keywords: urban growth, single feature probability, object based image analysis, landcover change

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Authors: A. Bere, H. G. Sithuba, K. Kyei, C. Sigauke

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We employ a discrete logit survival model to investigate the risk factors for early alcohol intake among students at two tertiary institutions in Thohoyandou, South Africa. Data were collected from a sample of 744 students using a self-administered questionnaire. Significant covariates were arrived at through a regularization algorithm implemented using the glmmLasso package. The tuning parameter was determined using a five-fold cross-validation algorithm. The baseline hazard was modelled as a smooth function of time through the use of spline functions. The results show that the hazard of initial alcohol intake peaks at the age of about 16 years and that at any given time, being of a male gender, prior use of other drugs, having drinking peers, having experienced negative life events and physical abuse are associated with a higher risk of alcohol intake debut.

Keywords: cross-validation, discrete hazard model, LASSO, smooth baseline hazard

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

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Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

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We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

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Authors: S. Sudhakar, Geetha Manjunath, Siva Teja Kakileti, Himanshu Madhu

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Diagnosis of breast cancer at early stages has seen better clinical and survival outcomes. Survival rates in developing countries like India are very low due to accessibility and affordability issues of screening tests such as Mammography. In addition, Mammography is not much effective in younger women with dense breasts. This leaves a gap in current screening methods. Thermalytix is a new technique for detecting breast abnormality in a non-contact, non-invasive way. It is an AI-enabled computer-aided diagnosis solution that automates interpretation of high resolution thermal images and identifies potential malignant lesions. The solution is low cost, easy to use, portable and is effective in all age groups. This paper presents the results of a retrospective comparative analysis of Thermalytix over Mammography and Clinical Breast Examination for breast cancer screening. Thermalytix was found to have better sensitivity than both the tests, with good specificity as well. In addition, Thermalytix identified all malignant patients without palpable lumps.

Keywords: breast cancer screening, radiology, thermalytix, artificial intelligence, thermography

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Shailendra Kumar, Kamal Kumar Gupta

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Dysdercus koenigii is an economically important pest of cotton worldwide. The pest damages the crop by sucking sap, staining lint, reducing the oil content of the seeds and deteriorating the quality of cotton. Plant possesses a plethora of secondary metabolites which are used as defense mechanism against herbivores. One of the important categories of such chemicals is insect growth regulators and the intermediates in their biosynthesis. Farnesol belongs to sesquiterpenoid. It is an intermediate in Juvenile hormone biosynthetic pathway in insects has been widely reported in the variety of plants. This chemical can disrupt the normal metabolic function and therefore, affects various life processes of the insects. Present study tested the efficacy of farnesol against Dysdercus koenigii. 2μl of 5% (100µg) and 10% (200µg) of the farnesol was applied topically on the dorsum of thoracic region of the newly emerged fifth instar nymphs of Dysdercus. The treated insects were observed daily for their survival, weight gain, and developmental anomalies for a period of ten days. The results indicated that treatment with 200µg farnesol decreased survival of the insects to 70% after 24h of exposure. At lower doses, no significant decrease in the survival was observed. However, the surviving nymphs showed alteration in growth, development, and metamorphosis. The weight gain in the treated nymphs showed deviation from control. The treated nymphs showed an increase in mortality during subsequent days and increase in the nymphal duration. The number of nymphs undergoing metamorphosis decreased to 46% and 88% in the treatments with the dose of 200µg and 100µg respectively. Severe developmental anomalies were also observed in the treated nymphs. The treated nymphs moulted into supernumerary nymphs, adultoids, adults with exuviae attached and adults with wing deformities. On treatment with 200µg; 26% adultoid, 4% adults with exuviae attached and 12% adults with wing deformed were produced. Treatment with 100µg resulted in production of 34% adultoid, 26% adults with deformed wing and 4% adults with exuviae attached. Many of the treated nymphs did not metamorphose into adults, remained in nymphal stage and died. Our results indicated potential application plant-derived secondary metabolites like farnesol in the management of Dysdercus population.

Keywords: development, Dysdercus koenigii, farnesol, survival

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Authors: Sunil Kayesth, Kamal Kumar Gupta

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The development of resistance among insects and pests, environmental contamination and adverse effects on non-target organisms is contributed by the indiscriminate use of chemical based insecticides. To overcome these environmental and other ecological issues that are need to replace these harmful toxic compounds. The present study was designed to evaluate the effect of Catharanthus roseus, Ocimum sanctum and Lantana camara plants volatiles on survival and longevity of Dysdercus koenigii. The hexane extract and ethanol extracts of these three plants were used. The fifth instars were exposed to hexane extract with concentrations of 10%, 5%, 2.5% 1.25%, 0.1%, 0.5% 0.25%, 0.125% and 0.0625% while, adults were treated with10%, 5%, 2.5% and 1.25%. 1-ml of each of these concentrations was used to make a thin film in sterilized glass jars of 500 ml capacity. Fifteen- newly emerged fifth instar nymphs and adult bugs were treated separately with the extracts for 24- hour exposure to the plant volatiles. For ethanol extracts cottonseed were treated with ethanol extracts of 10%, 5%, 2.5% and 1.25% concentrations. The treated seeds were provided to the Dysdercus for a period of 24 hours and their feeding behaviour was observed. The effect of hexane and ethanol extract of these plants was observed and readings were recorded for 15 days. Survival and longevity of both fifth instars and adults were in correlation with the concentrations of the plant extracts. Among three plant extracts, Ocimum hexane extract was most toxic and Catharanthus was moderate while Lantana was least toxic. The ethanol extracts of Lantana was highly antifeedent while Ocimum was moderate and Catharanthus was least antifeedent. Both Catharanthus and Ocimum appeared to have potential molecules, which possessed insecticidal activity while Ocimum and Lantana showed antifeedent activities. These insecticidal and antifeedent properties may be used in IPM.

Keywords: Catharanthus roseus, Ocimum sanctum, Lantana camara, Dysdercus koenigii

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Authors: Rasha Ahmadi

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Glioblastoma is one of the most frequent brain malignancies, having a high mortality rate and limited survival in individuals with this malignancy. Despite different treatments and surgery, recurrence of glioblastoma cancer stem cells may arise as a subsequent tumor. For this reason, it is crucial to research the markers associated with glioblastoma stem cells and specifically their microenvironment. In this study, using bioinformatics analysis, we analyzed and nominated genes in the microenvironment pathways of glioblastoma stem cells. In this study, an appropriate database was selected for analysis by referring to the GEO database. This dataset comprised gene expression patterns in stem cells derived from glioblastoma patients. Gene clusters were divided as high and low expression. Enrichment databases such as Enrichr, STRING, and GEPIA were utilized to analyze the data appropriately. Finally, we extracted the potential genes 2700 high-expression and 1100 low-expression genes are implicated in the metabolic pathways of glioblastoma cancer progression. Cellular senescence, MAPK, TNF, hypoxia, zimosterol biosynthesis, and phosphatidylinositol metabolism pathways were substantially expressed and the metabolic pathways were downregulated. After assessing the association between protein networks, MSMP, SOX2, FGD4 ,and CNTNAP3 genes with high expression and DMKN and SBSN genes with low were selected. All of these genes were observed in the survival curve, with a survival of fewer than 10 percent over around 15 months. hsa-mir-192-5p, hsa-mir-129-5p, hsa-mir-215-5p, hsa-mir-335-5p, and hsa-mir-340-5p played key function in glioblastoma cancer stem cells microenviroments. We introduced critical genes through integrated and regular bioinformatics studies by assessing the amount of gene expression profile data that can play an important role in targeting genes involved in the energy and microenvironment of glioblastoma cancer stem cells. Have. This study indicated that hsa-mir-192-5p, and hsa-mir-129-5p are appropriate candidates for this.

Keywords: Glioblastoma, Cancer Stem Cells, Biomarker Discovery, Gene Expression Profiles, Bioinformatics Analysis, Tumor Microenvironment

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Authors: Mohhamed El Habib Labdouni

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Introduction: Co-infection with VIH and tuberculosis poses one of the major ongoing challenges for global TB and AIDS prevention and control. The objective of this study is to raise the issue of the resurgence of TB, in People living with VIH supported in a referent center in western Algeria. Its epidemiological, clinical, biological and radiological new trends, and to compare the mortality rate between early and delayed ART. Methods: It was a prospective study, during 36 months from the 01st/01/2012 to 31st/12/2014, by identifying and analyzing cases of TB-VIH co-infection. Our population was devised in two groups/ early ART and delayed ART. The primary and secondary endpoints were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank test the period of follow up, which was fixed at 300 weeks. Results: Sixty cases of co-infection TB -VIH were enrolled in our study: 78.3% had pulmonary tuberculosis associated with extra-pulmonary, 13.3% had only pulmonary tuberculosis and 08.3% presented strictly extra-pulmonary TB. The clinical particularity of this co-infection is the frequency of serious localization such us: pleural 23.3%, peritoneal 31.7%, and meningeal suffusion 13.3%.y-.biologicaly we notice the predominance both of pancytopenia and leucoanemia, hyponatremia in 38,6% and hypokalemia in 19,3%. By analyzing Kaplan-Meier survival curves, we notice that early ART initiation is associated with a significant reduction of all-cause mortality (p = 0,000), and we have identified several prognostic factors such as hypokalemia hyponatremia, leukocytosis thrombopenemia leucothrombopenia (p = 0,005). Conclusion: Our study confirms most of the results reported in the literature. Early ART initiation reduces the rate of all-cause mortality, despite the probability of the occurrence of TB-IRIS.

Keywords: TB-HIV co-infection, early ART, hyponatremia, extrapulmonary tuberculosis

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Authors: Adrita Banerjee, Ajeet Kumar Singh

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Antenatal care (ANC) from a skilled provider is important to monitor the pregnancy and reduce the risk of morbidity for mother and baby during pregnancy and delivery. The quality of antenatal care can be monitored through the content of services received and the kind of information mothers are given during their visit. Objective: The paper tries to examine the association between ANC check-ups and size/ birth weight. It also focuses on investigating the relationship between utilization of recommended prenatal care for mothers and its effect on infant survival in Nepal. Data and methods: This paper uses data from Nepal demographic Health Survey 2011. To understand the relationship bi-variate statistical analysis and logistic regressions has been done. Maternal health care utilization include ANC check-ups i.e. the type of ante-natal care providers, the number and timing of the visit. The various components of the check-ups include intake of iron tablets/syrups, intestinal parasitic drugs, etc. Results: The results show that women who had no antenatal care visits about 40% had small sized babies at the time of birth compared to women to had at least 3 ANC check up. Women who had at least 3 check-ups 17% of the babies have a small size. It has also been found that about 50 % of the women prefer ANC check-ups during pregnancies which have resulted in lowering the infant mortality by about 40% during 1996-2011. Conclusion: Ante natal care check is care and monitoring of the pregnant woman and her foetus throughout pregnancy. ANC checks have an effect on the infant health and child survival. A woman who had at least three check-ups the possibilities of adverse effect on infant health and infant survival was significantly lower. The findings argue for a more enhanced focus on ANC check-ups for improving the maternal and child health in Nepal.

Keywords: maternal, health, pregnancy, outcome

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Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova

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Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.

Keywords: cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud

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