Search results for: wildfire modeling

Authors: Sunil Chandra, Himanshu Rawat, Vikas Gusain, Triparna Barman

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Forest fires are a recurrent phenomenon in the Himalayan region owing to the presence of vulnerable forest types, topographical gradients, climatic weather conditions, and anthropogenic pressure. The present study focuses on the identification of forest fire-affected areas in a small part of the West Himalayan region using a differential normalized burnt ratio method and spectral unmixing methods. The study area has a rugged terrain with the presence of sub-tropical pine forest, montane temperate forest, and sub-alpine forest and scrub. The major reason for fires in this region is anthropogenic in nature, with the practice of human-induced fires for getting fresh leaves, scaring wild animals to protect agricultural crops, grazing practices within reserved forests, and igniting fires for cooking and other reasons. The fires caused by the above reasons affect a large area on the ground, necessitating its precise estimation for further management and policy making. In the present study, two approaches have been used for carrying out a burnt area analysis. The first approach followed for burnt area analysis uses a differenced normalized burnt ratio (dNBR) index approach that uses the burnt ratio values generated using the Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) band and Near Infrared (NIR) bands of the Sentinel-2 image. The results of the dNBR have been compared with the outputs of the spectral mixing methods. It has been found that the dNBR is able to create good results in fire-affected areas having homogenous forest stratum and with slope degree <5 degrees. However, in a rugged terrain where the landscape is largely influenced by the topographical variations, vegetation types, tree density, the results may be largely influenced by the effects of topography, complexity in tree composition, fuel load composition, and soil moisture. Hence, such variations in the factors influencing burnt area assessment may not be effectively carried out using a dNBR approach which is commonly followed for burnt area assessment over a large area. Hence, another approach that has been attempted in the present study utilizes a spectral mixing method where the individual pixel is tested before assigning an information class to it. The method uses a neural network approach utilizing Sentinel-2 bands. The training and testing data are generated from the Sentinel-2 data and the national field inventory, which is further used for generating outputs using ML tools. The analysis of the results indicates that the fire-affected regions and their severity can be better estimated using spectral unmixing methods, which have the capability to resolve the noise in the data and can classify the individual pixel to the precise burnt/unburnt class.

Keywords: categorical data, log linear modeling, neural network, shifting cultivation

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Authors: Cynthia Sau Chun Yip, Richard Fielding

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High meat and especially red meat intakes are significantly and positively associated with a multiple burden of diseases and also high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated population meat intake patterns in Hong Kong. It quantified the burden of disease and GHG emission outcomes by modeling to adjust Hong Kong population meat intakes to recommended healthy levels. It compared age- and sex-specific population meat, fruit and vegetable intakes obtained from a population survey among adults aged 20 years and over in Hong Kong in 2005-2007, against intake recommendations suggested in the Modelling System to Inform the Revision of the Australian Guide to Healthy Eating (AGHE-2011-MS) technical document. This study found that meat and meat alternatives, especially red meat intakes among Hong Kong males aged 20+ years and over are significantly higher than recommended. Red meat intakes among females aged 50-69 years and other meat and alternatives intakes among aged 20-59 years are also higher than recommended. Taking the 2005-07 age- and sex-specific population meat intake as baselines, three counterfactual scenarios of adjusting Hong Kong adult population meat intakes to AGHE-2011-MS and Pre-2011 AGHE recommendations by the year 2030 were established. Consequent energy intake gaps were substituted with additional legume, fruit and vegetable intakes. To quantify the consequent GHG emission outcomes associated with Hong Kong meat intakes, Cradle-to-ready-to-eat lifecycle assessment emission outcome modelling was used. Comparative risk assessment of burden of disease model was used to quantify the health outcomes. This study found adjusting meat intakes to recommended levels could reduce Hong Kong GHG emission by 17%-44% when compared against baseline meat intake emissions, and prevent 2,519 to 7,012 premature deaths in males and 53 to 1,342 in females, as well as multiple burden of diseases when compared to the baseline meat intake scenario. Comparing lump sum meat intake reduction and outcome measures across the entire population, and using emission factors, and relative risks from individual studies in previous co-benefit studies, this study used age- and sex-specific input and output measures, emission factors and relative risks obtained from high quality meta-analysis and meta-review respectively, and has taken government dietary recommendations into account. Hence evaluations in this study are of better quality and more reflective of real life practices. Further to previous co-benefit studies, this study pinpointed age- and sex-specific population and meat-type-specific intervention points and leverages. When compared with similar studies in Australia, this study also showed that intervention points and leverages among populations in different geographic and cultural background could be different, and that globalization also globalizes meat consumption emission effects. More regional and cultural specific evaluations are recommended to promote more sustainable meat consumption and enhance global food security.

Keywords: burden of diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, Hong Kong diet, sustainable meat consumption

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Authors: U. S. Putro, L. Mayangsari, M. Siallagan, N. P. Tjahyani

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National Collective Management Institute (LKMN) in Indonesia stated that legal music products were about 77.552.008 unit while illegal music products were about 22.0688.225 unit in 1996 and this number keeps getting worse every year. Consequently, Indonesia named as one of the countries with high piracy levels in 2005. This study models people decision toward unlawful behavior, music content piracy in particular, using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). The classification of actors in the model constructed in this study are legal consumer, illegal consumer, and neutral consumer. The decision toward piracy among the actors is a manifestation of the social norm which attributes are social pressure, peer pressure, social approval, and perceived prevalence of piracy. The influencing attributes fluctuate depending on the majority of surrounding behavior called social network. There are two main interventions undertaken in the model, campaign and peer influence, which leads to scenarios in the simulation: positively-framed descriptive norm message, negatively-framed descriptive norm message, positively-framed injunctive norm with benefits message, and negatively-framed injunctive norm with costs message. Using NetLogo, the model is simulated in 30 runs with 10.000 iteration for each run. The initial number of agent was set 100 proportion of 95:5 for illegal consumption. The assumption of proportion is based on the data stated that 95% sales of music industry are pirated. The finding of this study is that negatively-framed descriptive norm message has a worse reversed effect toward music piracy. The study discovers that selecting the context-based campaign is the key process to reduce the level of intention toward music piracy as unlawful behavior by increasing the compliance awareness. The context of Indonesia reveals that that majority of people has actively engaged in music piracy as unlawful behavior, so that people think that this illegal act is common behavior. Therefore, providing the information about how widespread and big this problem is could make people do the illegal consumption behavior instead. The positively-framed descriptive norm message scenario works best to reduce music piracy numbers as it focuses on supporting positive behavior and subject to the right perception on this phenomenon. Music piracy is not merely economical, but rather social phenomenon due to the underlying motivation of the actors which has shifted toward community sharing. The indication of misconception of value co-creation in the context of music piracy in Indonesia is also discussed. This study contributes theoretically that understanding how social norm configures the behavior of decision-making process is essential to breakdown the phenomenon of unlawful behavior in music industry. In practice, this study proposes that reward-based and context-based strategy is the most relevant strategy for stakeholders in music industry. Furthermore, this study provides an opportunity that findings may generalize well beyond music piracy context. As an emerging body of work that systematically constructs the backstage of law and social affect decision-making process, it is interesting to see how the model is implemented in other decision-behavior related situation.

Keywords: music piracy, social norm, behavioral decision-making, agent-based model, value co-creation

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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In an era defined by the proliferation of data and the utilization of cloud computing environments, the efficient transfer and processing of big data workloads across multi-cloud platforms have emerged as critical challenges. This research paper embarks on a comprehensive exploration of the complexities associated with managing and optimizing big data in a multi-cloud ecosystem.The foundation of this study is rooted in the recognition that modern enterprises increasingly rely on multiple cloud providers to meet diverse business needs, enhance redundancy, and reduce vendor lock-in. As a consequence, managing data across these heterogeneous cloud environments has become intricate, necessitating innovative approaches to ensure data integrity, security, and performance.The primary objective of this research is to investigate strategies and techniques for enhancing the efficiency of data transfer and processing in multi-cloud scenarios. It recognizes that big data workloads are characterized by their sheer volume, variety, velocity, and complexity, making traditional data management solutions insufficient for harnessing the full potential of multi-cloud architectures.The study commences by elucidating the challenges posed by multi-cloud environments in the context of big data. These challenges encompass data fragmentation, latency, security concerns, and cost optimization. To address these challenges, the research explores a range of methodologies and solutions. One of the key areas of focus is data transfer optimization. The paper delves into techniques for minimizing data movement latency, optimizing bandwidth utilization, and ensuring secure data transmission between different cloud providers. It evaluates the applicability of dedicated data transfer protocols, intelligent data routing algorithms, and edge computing approaches in reducing transfer times.Furthermore, the study examines strategies for efficient data processing across multi-cloud environments. It acknowledges that big data processing requires distributed and parallel computing capabilities that span across cloud boundaries. The research investigates containerization and orchestration technologies, serverless computing models, and interoperability standards that facilitate seamless data processing workflows.Security and data governance are paramount concerns in multi-cloud environments. The paper explores methods for ensuring data security, access control, and compliance with regulatory frameworks. It considers encryption techniques, identity and access management, and auditing mechanisms as essential components of a robust multi-cloud data security strategy.The research also evaluates cost optimization strategies, recognizing that the dynamic nature of multi-cloud pricing models can impact the overall cost of data transfer and processing. It examines approaches for workload placement, resource allocation, and predictive cost modeling to minimize operational expenses while maximizing performance.Moreover, this study provides insights into real-world case studies and best practices adopted by organizations that have successfully navigated the challenges of multi-cloud big data management. It presents a comparative analysis of various multi-cloud management platforms and tools available in the market.

Keywords: multi-cloud environments, big data workloads, data transfer optimization, data processing strategies

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Authors: Alena Kulikova, Leonid Parmaksiz, Ekaterina Orel

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Social and emotional skills are considered by modern researchers as predictors of a person's success both in specific areas of activity and in the life of a person as a whole. The popularity of this scientific direction ensures the emergence of a large number of practices aimed at developing and evaluating socio-emotional skills. Assessment of social and emotional development is carried out at the national level, as well as at the level of individual regions and institutions. Despite the fact that many of the already existing social and emotional skills assessment tools are quite convenient and reliable, there are now more and more new technologies and task formats which improve the basic characteristics of the tools. Thus, the goal of the current study is to develop a tool for assessing social and emotional skills such as emotion recognition, emotion regulation, empathy and a culture of self-care. To develop a tool assessing social and emotional skills, Rasch-Gutman scenario-based approach was used. This approach has shown its reliability and merit for measuring various complex constructs: parental involvement; teacher practices that support cultural diversity and equity; willingness to participate in the life of the community after psychiatric rehabilitation; educational motivation and others. To assess emotion recognition, we used a situational judgment task based on OCC (Ortony, Clore, and Collins) emotions theory. The main advantage of these two approaches compare to classical Likert scales is that it reduces social desirability in answers. A field test to check the psychometric properties of the developed instrument was conducted. The instrument was developed for the presidential autonomous non-profit organization “Russia - Land of Opportunity” for nationwide soft skills assessment among higher education students. The sample for the field test consisted of 500 people, students aged from 18 to 25 (mean = 20; standard deviation 1.8), 71% female. 67% of students are only studying and are not currently working and 500 employed adults aged from 26 to 65 (mean = 42.5; SD 9), 57% female. Analysis of the psychometric characteristics of the scales was carried out using the methods of IRT (Item Response Theory). A one-parameter rating scale model RSM (Rating scale model) and Graded Response model (GRM) of the modern testing theory were applied. GRM is a polyatomic extension of the dichotomous two-parameter model of modern testing theory (2PL) based on the cumulative logit function for modeling the probability of a correct answer. The validity of the developed scales was assessed using correlation analysis and MTMM (multitrait-multimethod matrix). The developed instrument showed good psychometric quality and can be used by HR specialists or educational management. The detailed results of a psychometric study of the quality of the instrument, including the functioning of the tasks of each scale, will be presented. Also, the results of the validity study by MTMM analysis will be discussed.

Keywords: social and emotional skills, psychometrics, MTMM, IRT

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: C. Virgilio, J. Carlier, P. Campistron, M. Toubal, P. Garnier, L. Broussous, V. Thomy, B. Nongaillard

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Wetting efficiency of microstructures or nanostructures patterned on Si wafers is a real challenge in integrated circuits manufacturing. In fact, bad or non-uniform wetting during wet processes limits chemical reactions and can lead to non-complete etching or cleaning inside the patterns and device defectivity. This issue is more and more important with the transistors size shrinkage and concerns mainly high aspect ratio structures. Deep Trench Isolation (DTI) structures enabling pixels’ isolation in imaging devices are subject to this phenomenon. While low-frequency acoustic reflectometry principle is a well-known method for Non Destructive Test applications, we have recently shown that it is also well suited for nanostructures wetting characterization in a higher frequency range. In this paper, we present a high-frequency acoustic reflectometry characterization of DTI wetting through a confrontation of both experimental and modeling results. The acoustic method proposed is based on the evaluation of the reflection of a longitudinal acoustic wave generated by a 100 µm diameter ZnO piezoelectric transducer sputtered on the silicon wafer backside using MEMS technologies. The transducers have been fabricated to work at 5 GHz corresponding to a wavelength of 1.7 µm in silicon. The DTI studied structures, manufactured on the wafer frontside, are crossing trenches of 200 nm wide and 4 µm deep (aspect ratio of 20) etched into a Si wafer frontside. In that case, the acoustic signal reflection occurs at the bottom and at the top of the DTI enabling its characterization by monitoring the electrical reflection coefficient of the transducer. A Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) model has been developed to predict the behavior of the emitted wave. The model shows that the separation of the reflected echoes (top and bottom of the DTI) from different acoustic modes is possible at 5 Ghz. A good correspondence between experimental and theoretical signals is observed. The model enables the identification of the different acoustic modes. The evaluation of DTI wetting is then performed by focusing on the first reflected echo obtained through the reflection at Si bottom interface, where wetting efficiency is crucial. The reflection coefficient is measured with different water / ethanol mixtures (tunable surface tension) deposited on the wafer frontside. Two cases are studied: with and without PFTS hydrophobic treatment. In the untreated surface case, acoustic reflection coefficient values with water show that liquid imbibition is partial. In the treated surface case, the acoustic reflection is total with water (no liquid in DTI). The impalement of the liquid occurs for a specific surface tension but it is still partial for pure ethanol. DTI bottom shape and local pattern collapse of the trenches can explain these incomplete wetting phenomena. This high-frequency acoustic method sensitivity coupled with a FDTD propagative model thus enables the local determination of the wetting state of a liquid on real structures. Partial wetting states for non-hydrophobic surfaces or low surface tension liquids are then detectable with this method.

Keywords: wetting, acoustic reflectometry, gigahertz, semiconductor

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Authors: G. Cunningham, E. Cantor, X. Wu, F. Shen, G. Jiang, S. Philips, C. Bales, Y. Xiao, T. R. Cummins, J. C. Fehrenbacher, B. P. Schneider

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Background: Taxane-induced peripheral neuropathy (TIPN) is the most devastating survivorship issue for patients receiving therapy. Dose reductions due to TIPN in the curative setting lead to inferior outcomes for African American patients, as prior research has shown that this group is more susceptible to developing severe neuropathy. The mechanistic underpinnings of TIPN, however, have not been entirely elucidated. While it would be appealing to use primary tissue to study the development of TIPN, procuring nerves from patients is not realistically feasible, as nerve biopsies are painful and may result in permanent damage. Therefore, our laboratory has investigated paclitaxel-induced neuronal morphological and molecular changes using an ex vivo model of human-induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived neurons. Methods: iPSCs are undifferentiated and endlessly dividing cells that can be generated from a patient’s somatic cells, such as peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). We successfully reprogrammed PBMCs into iPSCs using the Erythroid Progenitor Reprograming Kit (STEMCell Technologiesᵀᴹ); pluripotency was verified by flow cytometry analysis. iPSCs were then induced into neurons using a differentiation protocol that bypasses the neural progenitor stage and uses selected small-molecule modulators of key signaling pathways (SMAD, Notch, FGFR1 inhibition, and Wnt activation). Results: Flow cytometry analysis revealed expression of core pluripotency transcription factors Nanog, Oct3/4 and Sox2 in iPSCs overlaps with commercially purchased pluripotent cell line UCSD064i-20-2. Trilineage differentiation of iPSCs was confirmed with immunofluorescent imaging with germ-layer-specific markers; Sox17 and ExoA2 for ectoderm, Nestin, and Pax6 for mesoderm, and Ncam and Brachyury for endoderm. Sensory neuron markers, β-III tubulin, and Peripherin were applied to stain the cells for the maturity of iPSC-derived neurons. Patch-clamp electrophysiology and calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) release data supported the functionality of the induced neurons and provided insight into the timing for which downstream assays could be performed (week 4 post-induction). We have also performed a cell viability assay and fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) using four cell-surface markers (CD184, CD44, CD15, and CD24) to select a neuronal population. At least 70% of the cells were viable in the isolated neuron population. Conclusion: We have found that these iPSC-derived neurons recapitulate mature neuronal phenotypes and demonstrate functionality. Thus, this represents a patient-derived ex vivo neuronal model to investigate the molecular mechanisms of clinical TIPN.

Keywords: chemotherapy, iPSC-derived neurons, peripheral neuropathy, taxane, paclitaxel

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Authors: J. Desbrieres, M. Popa, C. Peptu, S. Bacaita

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Because of their favorable properties (non-toxicity, biodegradability, mucoadhesivity etc.), polysaccharides were studied as biomaterials and as pharmaceutical excipients in drug formulations. These formulations may be produced in a wide variety of forms including hydrogels, hydrogel based particles (or capsules), films etc. In these formulations, the polysaccharide based materials are able to provide local delivery of loaded therapeutic agents but their delivery can be rapid and not easily time-controllable due to, particularly, the burst effect. This leads to a loss in drug efficiency and lifetime. To overcome the consequences of burst effect, systems involving liposomes incorporated into polysaccharide hydrogels may appear as a promising material in tissue engineering, regenerative medicine and drug loading systems. Liposomes are spherical self-closed structures, composed of curved lipid bilayers, which enclose part of the surrounding solvent into their structure. The simplicity of production, their biocompatibility, the size and similar composition of cells, the possibility of size adjustment for specific applications, the ability of hydrophilic or/and hydrophobic drug loading make them a revolutionary tool in nanomedicine and biomedical domain. Drug delivery systems were developed as hydrogels containing chitosan or carboxymethylcellulose (CMC) as polysaccharides and gelatin (GEL) as polypeptide, and phosphatidylcholine or phosphatidylcholine/cholesterol liposomes able to accurately control this delivery, without any burst effect. Hydrogels based on CMC were covalently crosslinked using glutaraldehyde, whereas chitosan based hydrogels were double crosslinked (ionically using sodium tripolyphosphate or sodium sulphate and covalently using glutaraldehyde). It has been proven that the liposome integrity is highly protected during the crosslinking procedure for the formation of the film network. Calcein was used as model active matter for delivery experiments. Multi-Lamellar vesicles (MLV) and Small Uni-Lamellar Vesicles (SUV) were prepared and compared. The liposomes are well distributed throughout the whole area of the film, and the vesicle distribution is equivalent (for both types of liposomes evaluated) on the film surface as well as deeper (100 microns) in the film matrix. An obvious decrease of the burst effect was observed in presence of liposomes as well as a uniform increase of calcein release that continues even at large time scales. Liposomes act as an extra barrier for calcein release. Systems containing MLVs release higher amounts of calcein compared to systems containing SUVs, although these liposomes are more stable in the matrix and diffuse with difficulty. This difference comes from the higher quantity of calcein present within the MLV in relation with their size. Modeling of release kinetics curves was performed and the release of hydrophilic drugs may be described by a multi-scale mechanism characterized by four distinct phases, each of them being characterized by a different kinetics model (Higuchi equation, Korsmeyer-Peppas model etc.). Knowledge of such models will be a very interesting tool for designing new formulations for tissue engineering, regenerative medicine and drug delivery systems.

Keywords: controlled and delayed release, hydrogels, liposomes, polysaccharides

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Authors: Patrick Weber, Daniel Gredig

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Background and Purpose: Research has well documented the impact of discrimination and micro-aggressions on the wellbeing of gay men and, especially, adolescents. For the prevention of homophobic behavior against gay adolescents, however, the focus has to shift on those who discriminate: For the design and tailoring of prevention and intervention, it is important to understand the factors responsible for homophobic behavior such as, for example, verbal abuse. Against this background, the present study aimed to assess homophobic – in terms of verbally abusive – behavior against gay people among high school students. Furthermore, it aimed to establish the predictors of the reported behavior by testing an explanatory model. This model posits that homophobic behavior is determined by negative attitudes and knowledge. These variables are supposed to be predicted by the acceptance of traditional gender roles, religiosity, orientation toward social dominance, contact with gay men, and by the perceived expectations of parents, friends and teachers. These social-cognitive variables in turn are assumed to be determined by students’ gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and the discussion of gay issues in class. Method: From August to October 2016, we visited 58 high school classes in 22 public schools in a county in Switzerland, and asked the 8th and 9th year students on three formal school levels to participate in survey about gender and gay issues. For data collection, we used an anonymous self-administered questionnaire filled in during class. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling (Generalized Least Square Estimates method). The sample included 897 students, 334 in the 8th and 563 in the 9th year, aged 12–17, 51.2% being female, 48.8% male, 50.3% with immigration background. Results: A proportion of 85.4% participants reported having made homophobic statements in the 12 month before survey, 4.7% often and very often. Analysis showed that respondents’ homophobic behavior was predicted directly by negative attitudes (β=0.20), as well as by the acceptance of traditional gender roles (β=0.06), religiosity (β=–0.07), contact with gay people (β=0.10), expectations of parents (β=–0.14) and friends (β=–0.19), gender (β=–0.22) and having a South-East-European or Western- and Middle-Asian immigration background (β=0.09). These variables were predicted, in turn, by gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and discussion of gay issues in class (GFI=0.995, AGFI=0.979, SRMR=0.0169, CMIN/df=1.199, p>0.213, adj. R2 =0.384). Conclusion: Findings evidence a high prevalence of homophobic behavior in the responding high school students. The tested explanatory model explained 38.4% of the assessed homophobic behavior. However, data did not found full support of the model. Knowledge did not turn out to be a predictor of behavior. Except for the perceived expectation of teachers and orientation toward social dominance, the social-cognitive variables were not fully mediated by attitudes. Equally, gender and immigration background predicted homophobic behavior directly. These findings demonstrate the importance of prevention and provide also leverage points for interventions against anti-gay bias in adolescents – also in social work settings as, for example, in school social work, open youth work or foster care.

Keywords: discrimination, high school students, gay men, predictors, Switzerland

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Authors: A. Abubakar, A. Parsa, S. Walker

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Despite advances made in the diagnosis and management of drug-sensitive tuberculosis (TB) over the past decades, treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains challenging and complex particularly in high burden countries including Nigeria. Treatment of MDR-TB is cost-prohibitive with success rate generally lower compared to drug-sensitive TB and if care is not taken it may become the dominant form of TB in future with many treatment uncertainties and substantial morbidity and mortality. Addressing these challenges requires collaborative efforts thorough sustained researches to evaluate the current treatment guidelines, particularly in high burden countries and prevent progression of resistance. To our best knowledge, there has been no research exploring the acceptability, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model in Nigeria, which is among the high burden countries. The previous similar qualitative study looks at the home-based management of MDR-TB in rural Uganda. This research aimed to explore patient’s views and acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model and to evaluate and compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus hospital-based MDR-TB treatment model of care from the Nigerian perspective. Knowledge of patient’s views and acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment approach would help in designing future treatment recommendations and in health policymaking. Accordingly, knowledge of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are part of the evidence needed to inform a decision about whether and how to scale up MDR-TB treatment, particularly in a poor resource setting with limited knowledge of TB. Mixed methods using qualitative and quantitative approach were employed. Qualitative data were obtained using in-depth semi-structured interviews with 21 MDR-TB patients in Nigeria to explore their views and acceptability of community-based MDR-TB treatment model. Qualitative data collection followed an iterative process which allowed adaptation of topic guides until data saturation. In-depth interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. Quantitative data on treatment outcomes were obtained from medical records of MDR-TB patients to determine the effectiveness and direct and indirect costs were obtained from the patients using validated questionnaire and health system costs from the donor agencies to determine the cost-effectiveness difference between community and hospital-based model from the Nigerian perspective. Findings: Some themes have emerged from the patient’s perspectives indicating preference and high acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model by the patients and mixed feelings about the risk of MDR-TB transmission within the community due to poor infection control. The result of the modeling from the quantitative data is still on course. Community-based MDR-TB care was seen as the acceptable and most preferred model of care by the majority of the participants because of its convenience which in turn enhanced recovery, enables social interaction and offer more psychosocial benefits as well as averted productivity loss. However, there is a need to strengthen this model of care thorough enhanced strategies that ensure guidelines compliance and infection control in order to prevent the progression of resistance and curtail community transmission.

Keywords: acceptability, cost-effectiveness, multidrug-resistant TB treatment, community and hospital approach

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Authors: Sabina Huč, Staffan Svensson, Tomaž Hozjan

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Timber structures may be exposed to various environmental conditions during their service life. Often, the structures have to resist extreme changes in the relative humidity of surrounding air, with simultaneously carrying the loads. Wood material response for this load case is seen as increasing deformation of the timber structure. Relative humidity variations cause moisture changes in timber and consequently shrinkage and swelling of the material. Moisture changes and loads acting together result in mechano-sorptive creep, while sustained load gives viscoelastic creep. In some cases, magnitude of the mechano-sorptive strain can be about five times the elastic strain already at low stress levels. Therefore, analyzing mechano-sorptive creep and its influence on timber structures’ long-term behavior is of high importance. Relatively many one-dimensional rheological models for rheological behavior of wood can be found in literature, while a number of models coupling creep response in each material direction is limited. In this study, mathematical formulation of a coupled two-dimensional mechano-sorptive model and its application to the experimental results are presented. The mechano-sorptive model constitutes of a moisture transport model and a mechanical model. Variation of the moisture content in wood is modelled by multi-Fickian moisture transport model. The model accounts for processes of the bound-water and water-vapor diffusion in wood, that are coupled through sorption hysteresis. Sorption defines a nonlinear relation between moisture content and relative humidity. Multi-Fickian moisture transport model is able to accurately predict unique, non-uniform moisture content field within the timber member over time. Calculated moisture content in timber members is used as an input to the mechanical analysis. In the mechanical analysis, the total strain is assumed to be a sum of the elastic strain, viscoelastic strain, mechano-sorptive strain, and strain due to shrinkage and swelling. Mechano-sorptive response is modelled by so-called spring-dashpot type of a model, that proved to be suitable for describing creep of wood. Mechano-sorptive strain is dependent on change of moisture content. The model includes mechano-sorptive material parameters that have to be calibrated to the experimental results. The calibration is made to the experiments carried out on wooden blocks subjected to uniaxial compressive loaded in tangential direction and varying humidity conditions. The moisture and the mechanical model are implemented in a finite element software. The calibration procedure gives the required, distinctive set of mechano-sorptive material parameters. The analysis shows that mechano-sorptive strain in transverse direction is present, though its magnitude and variation are substantially lower than the mechano-sorptive strain in the direction of loading. The presented mechano-sorptive model enables observing real temporal and spatial distribution of the moisture-induced strains and stresses in timber members. Since the model’s suitability for predicting mechano-sorptive strains is shown and the required material parameters are obtained, a comprehensive advanced analysis of the stress-strain state in timber structures, including connections subjected to constant load and varying humidity is possible.

Keywords: mechanical analysis, mechano-sorptive creep, moisture transport model, timber

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Authors: Saqib Aziz, Brad Alexander, Christoph Gengnagel, Stefan Weinzierl

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This paper explores a generative design, simulation, and optimization workflow for the integration of acoustical diffuser and/or absorber geometry with embedded coupled Helmholtz-resonators for full-scale 3D printed building components. Large-scale additive manufacturing in conjunction with algorithmic CAD design tools enables a vast amount of control when creating geometry. This is advantageous regarding the increasing demands of comfort standards for indoor spaces and the use of more resourceful and sustainable construction methods and materials. The presented methodology highlights these new technological advancements and offers a multimodal and integrative design solution with the potential for an immediate application in the AEC-Industry. In principle, the methodology can be applied to a wide range of structural elements that can be manufactured by additive manufacturing processes. The current paper focuses on a case study of an application for a biaxial load-bearing beam grillage made of reinforced concrete, which allows for a variety of applications through the combination of additive prefabricated semi-finished parts and in-situ concrete supplementation. The semi-prefabricated parts or formwork bodies form the basic framework of the supporting structure and at the same time have acoustic absorption and diffusion properties that are precisely acoustically programmed for the space underneath the structure. To this end, a hybrid validation strategy is being explored using a digital and cross-platform simulation environment, verified with physical prototyping. The iterative workflow starts with the generation of a parametric design model for the acoustical geometry using the algorithmic visual scripting editor Grasshopper3D inside the building information modeling (BIM) software Revit. Various geometric attributes (i.e., bottleneck and cavity dimensions) of the resonator are parameterized and fed to a numerical optimization algorithm which can modify the geometry with the goal of increasing absorption at resonance and increasing the bandwidth of the effective absorption range. Using Rhino.Inside and LiveLink for Revit, the generative model was imported directly into the Multiphysics simulation environment COMSOL. The geometry was further modified and prepared for simulation in a semi-automated process. The incident and scattered pressure fields were simulated from which the surface normal absorption coefficients were calculated. This reciprocal process was repeated to further optimize the geometric parameters. Subsequently the numerical models were compared to a set of 3D concrete printed physical twin models, which were tested in a .25 m x .25 m impedance tube. The empirical results served to improve the starting parameter settings of the initial numerical model. The geometry resulting from the numerical optimization was finally returned to grasshopper for further implementation in an interdisciplinary study.

Keywords: acoustical design, additive manufacturing, computational design, multimodal optimization

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Authors: Julia Kapr, Andrea Rossi, Haribaskar Ramachandran, Marius Pollet, Ilka Egger, Selina Dangeleit, Katharina Koch, Jean Krutmann, Ellen Fritsche

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It is widely acknowledged that animal models do not always represent human disease. Especially human brain development is difficult to model in animals due to a variety of structural and functional species-specificities. This causes significant discrepancies between predicted and apparent drug efficacies in clinical trials and their subsequent failure. Emerging alternatives based on 3D in vitro approaches, such as human brain spheres or organoids, may in the future reduce and ultimately replace animal models. Here, we present a human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC)-based 3D neural in a vitro disease model for the Cockayne Syndrome B (CSB). CSB is a rare hereditary disease and is accompanied by severe neurologic defects, such as microcephaly, ataxia and intellectual disability, with currently no treatment options. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the molecular and cellular defects found in neural hiPSC-derived CSB models. Understanding the underlying pathology of CSB enables the development of treatment options. The two CSB models used in this study comprise a patient-derived hiPSC line and its isogenic control as well as a CSB-deficient cell line based on a healthy hiPSC line (IMR90-4) background thereby excluding genetic background-related effects. Neurally induced and differentiated brain sphere cultures were characterized via RNA Sequencing, western blot (WB), immunocytochemistry (ICC) and multielectrode arrays (MEAs). CSB-deficiency leads to an altered gene expression of markers for autophagy, focal adhesion and neural network formation. Cell migration was significantly reduced and electrical activity was significantly increased in the disease cell lines. These data hint that the cellular pathologies is possibly underlying CSB. By induction of autophagy, the migration phenotype could be partially rescued, suggesting a crucial role of disturbed autophagy in defective neural migration of the disease lines. Altered autophagy may also lead to inefficient mitophagy. Accordingly, disease cell lines were shown to have a lower mitochondrial base activity and a higher susceptibility to mitochondrial stress induced by rotenone. Since mitochondria play an important role in neurotransmitter cycling, we suggest that defective mitochondria may lead to altered electrical activity in the disease cell lines. Failure to clear the defective mitochondria by mitophagy and thus missing initiation cues for new mitochondrial production could potentiate this problem. With our data, we aim at establishing a disease adverse outcome pathway (AOP), thereby adding to the in-depth understanding of this multi-faced disorder and subsequently contributing to alternative drug development.

Keywords: autophagy, disease modeling, in vitro, pluripotent stem cells

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Authors: Pamela Tancsik

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The stage production in 2018, titled ‘From‘Marikana to Mahagonny’, began with a prologue in the form of the award-winning documentary ‘Miners Shot Down' by Rehad Desai, followed by Brecht/Weill’s song play or scenic cantata ‘Mahagonny’, premièred in Baden-Baden 1927. The central directorial concept of the DUT musical production ‘From Marikana to Mahagonny’ was to show a connection between the socio-political alienation of mineworkers in present-day South Africa and Brecht’s alienation effect in his scenic cantata ‘Mahagonny’. Marikana is a mining town about 50 km west of South Africa’s capital Pretoria. Mahagonny is a fantasy name for a utopian mining town in the United States. The characters, setting, and lyrics refer to America with of songs like ‘Benares’ and ‘Moon of Alabama’ and the use of typical American inventions such as dollars, saloons, and the telephone. The six singing characters in ‘Mahagonny’ all have typical American names: Charlie, Billy, Bobby, Jimmy, and the two girls they meet later are called Jessie and Bessie. The four men set off to seek Mahagonny. For them, it is the ultimate dream destination promising the fulfilment of all their desires, such as girls, alcohol, and dollars – in short, materialistic goals. Instead of finding a paradise, they experience how money and the practice of exploitive capitalism, and the lack of any moral and humanity is destroying their lives. In the end, Mahagonny gets demolished by a hurricane, an event which happened in 1926 in the United States. ‘God’ in person arrives disillusioned and bitter, complaining about violent and immoral mankind. In the end, he sends them all to hell. Charlie, Billy, Bobby, and Jimmy reply that this punishment does not mean anything to them because they have already been in hell for a long time – hell on earth is a reality, so the threat of hell after life is meaningless. Human life was also taken during the stand-off between striking mineworkers and the South African police on 16 August 2012. Miners from the Lonmin Platinum Mine went on an illegal strike, equipped with bush knives and spears. They were striking because their living conditions had never improved; they still lived in muddy shacks with no running water and electricity. Wages were as low as R4,000 (South African Rands), equivalent to just over 200 Euro per month. By August 2012, the negotiations between Lonmin management and the mineworkers’ unions, asking for a minimum wage of R12,500 per month, had failed. Police were sent in by the Government, and when the miners did not withdraw, the police shot at them. 34 were killed, some by bullets in their backs while running away and trying to hide behind rocks. In the musical play ‘From Marikana to Mahagonny’ audiences in South Africa are confronted with a documentary about Marikana, followed by Brecht/Weill’s scenic cantata, highlighting the tragic parallels between the Mahagonny story and characters from 1927 America and the Lonmin workers today in South Africa, showing that in 95 years, capitalism has not changed.

Keywords: alienation, brecht/Weill, mahagonny, marikana/South Africa, musical theatre

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Authors: Jessica To

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Feedback is one of the powerful levers for enhancing students’ performance. However, some students are under-engaged with feedback because they lack responsibility for feedback uptake. To resolve this conundrum, recent literature proposes feedback partnerships in which students and teachers share the power and responsibilities to co-construct feedback. During feedback co-construction, students express feedback needs to teachers, and teachers respond to individuals’ needs in return. Though this approach can increase students’ feedback ownership, its application is lagging as the field lacks conceptual clarity and implementation guide. This presentation aims to discuss the conceptual framework of feedback partnerships and feedback co-construction strategies. It identifies the components of feedback partnerships and strategies which could facilitate feedback co-construction. A systematic literature review was conducted to answer the questions. The literature search was performed using ERIC, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar with the keywords “assessment partnership”, “student as partner,” and “feedback engagement”. No time limit was set for the search. The inclusion criteria encompassed (i) student-teacher partnerships in feedback, (ii) feedback engagement in higher education, (iii) peer-reviewed publications, and (iv) English as the language of publication. Those without addressing conceptual understanding and implementation strategies were excluded. Finally, 65 publications were identified and analysed using thematic analysis. For the procedure, the texts relating to the questions were first extracted. Then, codes were assigned to summarise the ideas of the texts. Upon subsuming similar codes into themes, four themes emerged: students’ responsibilities, teachers’ responsibilities, conditions for partnerships development, and strategies. Their interrelationships were examined iteratively for framework development. Establishing feedback partnerships required different responsibilities of students and teachers during feedback co-construction. Students needed to self-evaluate performance against task criteria, identify inadequacies and communicate their needs to teachers. During feedback exchanges, they interpreted teachers’ comments, generated self-feedback through reflection, and co-developed improvement plans with teachers. Teachers had to increase students’ understanding of criteria and evaluation skills and create opportunities for students’ expression of feedback needs. In feedback dialogue, teachers responded to students’ needs and advised on the improvement plans. Feedback partnerships would be best grounded in an environment with trust and psychological safety. Four strategies could facilitate feedback co-construction. First, students’ understanding of task criteria could be increased by rubrics explanation and exemplar analysis. Second, students could sharpen evaluation skills if they participated in peer review and received teacher feedback on the quality of peer feedback. Third, provision of self-evaluation checklists and prompts and teacher modeling of self-assessment process could aid students in articulating feedback needs. Fourth, the trust could be fostered when teachers explained the benefits of feedback co-construction, showed empathy, and provided personalised comments in dialogue. Some strategies were applied in interactive cover sheets in which students performed self-evaluation and made feedback requests on a cover sheet during assignment submission, followed by teachers’ response to individuals’ requests. The significance of this presentation lies in unpacking the conceptual framework of feedback partnerships and outlining feedback co-construction strategies. With a solid foundation in theory and practice, researchers and teachers could better enhance students’ engagement with feedback.

Keywords: conceptual framework, feedback co-construction, feedback partnerships, implementation strategies

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Authors: Dhanuj M. Gandikota

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Sensor-derived three-dimensional (3D) point clouds of trees are invaluable in remote sensing analysis for the accurate measurement of key structural metrics, bio-inventory values, spatial planning/visualization, and ecological modeling. Machine learning (ML) holds the potential in addressing the restrictive tradeoffs in cost, spatial coverage, resolution, and information gain that exist in current point cloud sensing methods. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) remains the highest fidelity source of both canopy and below-canopy structural features, but usage is limited in both coverage and cost, requiring manual deployment to map out large, forested areas. While aerial laser scanning (ALS) remains a reliable avenue of LIDAR active remote sensing, ALS is also cost-restrictive in deployment methods. Space-borne photogrammetry from high-resolution satellite constellations is an avenue of passive remote sensing with promising viability in research for the accurate construction of vegetation 3-D point clouds. It provides both the lowest comparative cost and the largest spatial coverage across remote sensing methods. However, both space-borne photogrammetry and ALS demonstrate technical limitations in the capture of valuable below-canopy point cloud data. Looking to minimize these tradeoffs, we explored a class of powerful ML algorithms called Deep Learning (DL) that show promise in recent research on 3-D point cloud reconstruction and interpolation. Our research details the efficacy of applying these DL techniques to reconstruct accurate below-canopy point clouds from space-borne and aerial remote sensing through learned patterns of tree species fractal symmetry properties and the supplementation of locally sourced bio-inventory metrics. From our dataset, consisting of tree point clouds obtained from TLS, we deconstructed the point clouds of each tree into those that would be obtained through ALS and satellite photogrammetry of varying resolutions. We fed this ALS/satellite point cloud dataset, along with the simulated local bio-inventory metrics, into the DL point cloud reconstruction architectures to generate the full 3-D tree point clouds (the truth values are denoted by the full TLS tree point clouds containing the below-canopy information). Point cloud reconstruction accuracy was validated both through the measurement of error from the original TLS point clouds as well as the error of extraction of key structural metrics, such as crown base height, diameter above root crown, and leaf/wood volume. The results of this research additionally demonstrate the supplemental performance gain of using minimum locally sourced bio-inventory metric information as an input in ML systems to reach specified accuracy thresholds of tree point cloud reconstruction. This research provides insight into methods for the rapid, cost-effective, and accurate construction of below-canopy tree 3-D point clouds, as well as the supported potential of ML and DL to learn complex, unmodeled patterns of fractal tree growth symmetry.

Keywords: deep learning, machine learning, satellite, photogrammetry, aerial laser scanning, terrestrial laser scanning, point cloud, fractal symmetry

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Authors: Sohrab Donyavi

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The global construction market is experiencing significant shifts, particularly for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), driven by the dual imperatives of technological advancement and sustainability. MSMEs play a crucial role in the construction industry, often being the backbone of economic development and fostering entrepreneurial skills. However, their dominance has also led to industry fragmentation and challenges such as technological lag and declining profit margins, which threaten their global competitiveness. This paper explores the integration of technology and sustainability in reshaping the paradigms for MSMEs in the construction sector. The adoption of advanced technologies, such as building information modeling (BIM) and AI, are pivotal for promoting sustainable construction practices. These tools enable MSMEs to design and construct environmentally responsible buildings, thereby contributing to the industry's sustainability goals. The research highlights that achieving sustainability in construction involves significant efforts in conservation, recycling, and the development of new materials and technologies. This approach aligns with the broader goal of integrating economic, environmental, and social aims into firm objectives to create long-term value while ensuring the protection of natural resources for future generations. Critical factors for implementing sustainable oriented innovation (SOI) practices in MSMEs include top management support, government initiatives, and financial resources. These factors are essential for fostering an environment conducive to innovation and sustainability. Furthermore, the empowerment of MSMEs through improved governance, market-oriented programs, sustainable productivity growth, and access to financing is vital. In developing regions like Indonesia, these strategies are crucial for enabling MSMEs to thrive in the face of globalization. The tendency of large firms to grow larger with the help of technology and globalization has led to the emergence of a high-technology oligopoly, posing a significant challenge to traditional construction practices. This shift necessitates that MSMEs adapt by leveraging technology and embracing sustainable practices to remain competitive. The research underscores the importance of integrating technology and sustainability not only as a competitive strategy but also as a means to contribute to the global effort of environmental conservation and sustainable development. This paper concludes that the successful integration of technology and sustainability in MSMEs requires a multifaceted approach. It involves the adoption of advanced technological tools, strong support from top management, proactive government policies, and access to financial resources. By addressing these factors, MSMEs can overcome the challenges of industry fragmentation, technological lag, and declining profit margins. Ultimately, this integration will enable MSMEs to play a pivotal role in driving the construction industry towards a more sustainable and technologically advanced future. The findings and recommendations are based on a comprehensive case study utilizing semi-structured interviews, observations, questionnaires, and document reviews.

Keywords: MSMEs, construction, technology, sustainability, innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Anudeep Appe, Bhanu Poluparthi, Lakshmi Kasivajjula, Udai Mv, Sobha Bagadi, Punya Modi, Aditya Singh, Hemanth Gunupudi, Spenser Troiano, Jeff Paul, Justin Stovall, Justin Yamamoto

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The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data is considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP, to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since its data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for ex. quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: competition, DAGs, facility, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP

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Authors: Michael Brave, Mark Kroll, Steven Karch, Charles Wetli, Michael Graham, Sebastian Kunz, Dorin Panescu

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Background: Conducted electrical weapons (CEW) are now used in 107 countries and are a common law enforcement less-lethal force practice in the United Kingdom (UK), United States of America (USA), Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and others. Use of these devices is rarely temporally associated with the occurrence of sudden arrest-related deaths (ARD). Because such deaths are uncommon, few Medical Examiners (MEs) ever encounter one, and even fewer offices have established comprehensive investigative protocols. Without sufficient scientific data, the role, if any, played by a CEW in a given case is largely supplanted by conjecture often defaulting to a CEW-induced fatal cardiac arrhythmia. In addition to the difficulty in investigating individual deaths, the lack of information also detrimentally affects being able to define and evaluate the ARD cohort generally. More comprehensive, better information leads to better interpretation in individual cases and also to better research. The purpose of this presentation is to provide MEs with a comprehensive evidence-based checklist to assist in the assessment of CEW-ARD cases. Methods: PUBMED and Sociology/Criminology data bases were queried to find all medical, scientific, electrical, modeling, engineering, and sociology/criminology peer-reviewed literature for mentions of CEW or synonymous terms. Each paper was then individually reviewed to identify those that discussed possible bioelectrical mechanisms relating CEW to ARD. A Naranjo-type pharmacovigilance algorithm was also employed, when relevant, to identify and quantify possible direct CEW electrical myocardial stimulation. Additionally, CEW operational manuals and training materials were reviewed to allow incorporation of CEW-specific technical parameters. Results: Total relevant PUBMED citations of CEWs were less than 250, and reports of death extremely rare. Much relevant information was available from Sociology/Criminology data bases. Once the relevant published papers were identified, and reviewed, we compiled an annotated checklist of data that we consider critical to a thorough CEW-involved ARD investigation. Conclusion: We have developed an evidenced-based checklist that can be used by MEs and their staffs to assist them in identifying, collecting, documenting, maintaining, and objectively analyzing the role, if any, played by a CEW in any specific case of sudden death temporally associated with the use of a CEW. Even in cases where the collected information is deemed by the ME as insufficient for formulating an opinion or diagnosis to a reasonable degree of medical certainty, information collected as per the checklist will often be adequate for other stakeholders to use as a basis for informed decisions. Having reviewed the appropriate materials in a significant number of cases careful examination of the heart and brain is likely adequate. Channelopathy testing should be considered in some cases, however it may be considered cost prohibitive (aprox $3000). Law enforcement agencies may want to consider establishing a reserve fund to help manage such rare cases. The expense may stay the enormous costs associated with incident-precipitated litigation.

Keywords: ARD, CEW, police, TASER

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Chun-Yu Chen, Kua-Rong Wu, Yu-Cheng Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

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Cooking fumes are known containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and aldehydes, and some of them have been proven carcinogenic or possibly carcinogenic to humans. Considering their chronic health effects, long-term exposure data is required for assessing cooking workers’ lifetime health risks. Previous exposure assessment studies, due to both time and cost constraints, mostly were based on the cross-sectional data. Therefore, establishing a long-term exposure data has become an important issue for conducting health risk assessment for cooking workers. An approach was proposed in this study. Here, the generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes from a cooking process were determined by placing a sampling train exactly under the under the exhaust fan under the both the total enclosure condition and normal operating condition, respectively. Subtracting the concentration collected by the former (representing the total emitted concentration) from that of the latter (representing the hood collected concentration), the fugitive emitted concentration was determined. The above data was further converted to determine the generation rates based on the flow rates specified for the exhaust fan. The determinations of the above generation rates were conducted in a testing chamber with a selected cooking process (deep-frying chicken nuggets under 3 L peanut oil at 200°C). The sampling train installed under the exhaust fan consisted respectively an IOM inhalable sampler with a glass fiber filter for collecting particle-phase PAHs, followed by a XAD-2 tube for gas-phase PAHs. The above was also used to sample aldehydes, however, installed with a filter pre-coated with DNPH, and followed by a 2,4-DNPH-cartridge for collecting particle-phase and gas-phase aldehydes, respectively. PAHs and aldehydes samples were analyzed by GC/MS-MS (Agilent 7890B), and HPLC-UV (HITACHI L-7100), respectively. The obtained generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes were applied to the near-field/ far-field exposure model to estimate the exposures of cooks (the estimated near-field concentration), and helpers (the estimated far-field concentration). For validating purposes, both PAHs and aldehydes samplings were conducted simultaneously using the same sampling train at both near-field and far-field sites of the testing chamber. The sampling results, together with the use of the mixed-effect model, were used to calibrate the estimated near-field/ far-field exposures. In the present study, the obtained emission rates were further converted to emission factor of both PAHs and aldehydes according to the amount of food oil consumed. Applying the long-term food oil consumption records, the emission rates for both PAHs and aldehydes were determined, and the long-term exposure databanks for cooks (the estimated near-field concentration), and helpers (the estimated far-field concentration) were then determined. Results show that the proposed approach was adequate to determine the generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes under various fan exhaust flow rate conditions. The estimated near-field/ far-field exposures, though were significantly different from that obtained from the field, can be calibrated using the mixed effect model. Finally, the established long-term data bank could provide a useful basis for conducting long-term exposure assessments for cooking workers exposed to PAHs and aldehydes.

Keywords: aldehydes, cooking oil fumes, long-term exposure assessment, modeling, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)

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Authors: Trevor C. Brown, David J. Miron

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Gas-solid physical adsorption methods are central to the characterization and optimization of the effective surface area, pore size and porosity for applications such as heterogeneous catalysis, and gas separation and storage. Properties such as adsorption uptake, capacity, equilibrium constants and Gibbs free energy are dependent on the composition and structure of both the gas and the adsorbent. However, challenges remain, in accurately calculating these properties from experimental data. Gas adsorption experiments involve measuring the amounts of gas adsorbed over a range of pressures under isothermal conditions. Various constant-parameter models, such as Langmuir and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) theories are used to provide information on adsorbate and adsorbent properties from the isotherm data. These models typically do not provide accurate interpretations across the full range of pressures and temperatures. The Langmuir adsorption isotherm is a simple approximation for modelling equilibrium adsorption data and has been effective in estimating surface areas and catalytic rate laws, particularly for high surface area solids. The Langmuir isotherm assumes the systematic filling of identical adsorption sites to a monolayer coverage. The BET model is based on the Langmuir isotherm and allows for the formation of multiple layers. These additional layers do not interact with the first layer and the energetics are equal to the adsorbate as a bulk liquid. This BET method is widely used to measure the specific surface area of materials. Both Langmuir and BET models assume that the affinity of the gas for all adsorption sites are identical and so the calculated adsorbent uptake at the monolayer and equilibrium constant are independent of coverage and pressure. Accurate representations of adsorption data have been achieved by extending the Langmuir and BET models to include pressure-varying uptake capacities and equilibrium constants. These parameters are determined using a novel regression technique called flexible least squares for time-varying linear regression. For isothermal adsorption the adsorption parameters are assumed to vary slowly and smoothly with increasing pressure. The flexible least squares for pressure-varying linear regression (FLS-PVLR) approach assumes two distinct types of discrepancy terms, dynamic and measurement for all parameters in the linear equation used to simulate the data. Dynamic terms account for pressure variation in successive parameter vectors, and measurement terms account for differences between observed and theoretically predicted outcomes via linear regression. The resultant pressure-varying parameters are optimized by minimizing both dynamic and measurement residual squared errors. Validation of this methodology has been achieved by simulating adsorption data for n-butane and isobutane on activated carbon at 298 K, 323 K and 348 K and for nitrogen on mesoporous alumina at 77 K with pressure-varying Langmuir and BET adsorption parameters (equilibrium constants and uptake capacities). This modeling provides information on the adsorbent (accessible surface area and micropore volume), adsorbate (molecular areas and volumes) and thermodynamic (Gibbs free energies) variations of the adsorption sites.

Keywords: Langmuir adsorption isotherm, BET adsorption isotherm, pressure-varying adsorption parameters, adsorbate and adsorbent properties and energetics

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Authors: Jonathan Kissi, Baozhen Dai, Wisdom W. K. Pomegbe, Abdul-Basit Kassim

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Protecting patient’s digital information is a growing concern for healthcare institutions as people nowadays perpetually live their lives through telemedicine services. These telemedicine services have been confronted with several determinants that hinder their successful implementations, especially in developing countries. Identifying such determinants that influence the acceptance of telemedicine services is also a problem for healthcare professionals. Despite the tremendous increase in telemedicine services, its adoption, and use has been quite slow in some healthcare settings. Generally, it is accepted in today’s globalizing world that the success of telemedicine services relies on users’ satisfaction. Satisfying health professionals and patients are one of the crucial objectives of telemedicine success. This study seeks to investigate the determinants that influence health professionals’ intention to utilize telemedicine services in clinical activities in a sub-Saharan African country in West Africa (Ghana). A hybridized model comprising of health adoption models, including technology acceptance theory, diffusion of innovation theory, and protection of motivation theory, were used to investigate these quandaries. The study was carried out in four government health institutions that apply and regulate telemedicine services in their clinical activities. A structured questionnaire was developed and used for data collection. Purposive and convenience sampling methods were used in the selection of healthcare professionals from different medical fields for the study. The collected data were analyzed based on structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. All selected constructs showed a significant relationship with health professional’s behavioral intention in the direction expected from prior literature including perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, management strategies, financial sustainability, communication channels, patients security threat, patients privacy risk, self efficacy, actual service use, user satisfaction, and telemedicine services systems securities threat. Surprisingly, user characteristics and response efficacy of health professionals were not significant in the hybridized model. The findings and insights from this research show that health professionals are pragmatic when making choices for technology applications and also their willingness to use telemedicine services. They are, however, anxious about its threats and coping appraisals. The identified significant constructs in the study may help to increase efficiency, quality of services, quality patient care delivery, and satisfactory user satisfaction among healthcare professionals. The implantation and effective utilization of telemedicine services in the selected hospitals will aid as a strategy to eradicate hardships in healthcare services delivery. The service will help attain universal health access coverage to all populace. This study contributes to empirical knowledge by identifying the vital factors influencing health professionals’ behavioral intentions to adopt telemedicine services. The study will also help stakeholders of healthcare to formulate better policies towards telemedicine service usage.

Keywords: telemedicine service, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, management strategies, security threats

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Authors: Imen Soltani, Takoua Soltani, Taoufik Aguili

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Metamaterials crossover classic physical boundaries and gives rise to new phenomena and applications in the domain of beam steering and shaping. Where electromagnetic near and far field manipulations were achieved in an accurate manner. In this sense, 3D imaging is one of the beneficiaries and in particular Denis Gabor’s invention: holography. But, the major difficulty here is the lack of a suitable recording medium. So some enhancements were essential, where the 2D version of bulk metamaterials have been introduced the so-called metasurface. This new class of interfaces simplifies the problem of recording medium with the capability of tuning the phase, amplitude, and polarization at a given frequency. In order to achieve an intelligible wavefront control, the electromagnetic properties of the metasurface should be optimized by means of solving Maxwell’s equations. In this context, integral methods are emerging as an important method to study electromagnetic from microwave to optical frequencies. The method of moment presents an accurate solution to reduce the problem of dimensions by writing its boundary conditions in the form of integral equations. But solving this kind of equations tends to be more complicated and time-consuming as the structural complexity increases. Here, the use of equivalent circuit’s method exhibits the most scalable experience to develop an integral method formulation. In fact, for allaying the resolution of Maxwell’s equations, the method of Generalised Equivalent Circuit was proposed to convey the resolution from the domain of integral equations to the domain of equivalent circuits. In point of fact, this technique consists in creating an electric image of the studied structure using discontinuity plan paradigm and taken into account its environment. So that, the electromagnetic state of the discontinuity plan is described by generalised test functions which are modelled by virtual sources not storing energy. The environmental effects are included by the use of an impedance or admittance operator. Here, we propose a tunable metasurface composed of graphene-based elements which combine the advantages of reflectarrays concept and graphene as a pillar constituent element at Terahertz frequencies. The metasurface’s building block consists of a thin gold film, a dielectric spacer SiO₂ and graphene patch antenna. Our electromagnetic analysis is based on the method of moment combined with generalised equivalent circuit (MoM-GEC). We begin by restricting our attention to study the effects of varying graphene’s chemical potential on the unit cell input impedance. So, it was found that the variation of complex conductivity of graphene allows controlling the phase and amplitude of the reflection coefficient at each element of the array. From the results obtained here, we were able to determine that the phase modulation is realized by adjusting graphene’s complex conductivity. This modulation is a viable solution compared to tunning the phase by varying the antenna length because it offers a full 2π reflection phase control.

Keywords: graphene, method of moment combined with generalised equivalent circuit, reconfigurable metasurface, reflectarray, terahertz domain

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Authors: Ahmed Elaksher, Islam Omar

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Accurate geometric relation algorithms are imperative in Earth and planetary satellite and aerial image processing, particularly for high-resolution images that are used for topographic mapping. Most of these satellites carry push-broom sensors. These sensors are optical scanners equipped with linear arrays of CCDs. These sensors have been deployed on most EOSs. In addition, the LROC is equipped with two push NACs that provide 0.5 meter-scale panchromatic images over a 5 km swath of the Moon. The HiRISE carried by the MRO and the HRSC carried by MEX are examples of push-broom sensor that produces images of the surface of Mars. Sensor models developed in photogrammetry relate image space coordinates in two or more images with the 3D coordinates of ground features. Rigorous sensor models use the actual interior orientation parameters and exterior orientation parameters of the camera, unlike approximate models. In this research, we generate a generic push-broom sensor model to process imageries acquired through linear array cameras and investigate its performance, advantages, and disadvantages in generating topographic models for the Earth, Mars, and the Moon. We also compare and contrast the utilization, effectiveness, and applicability of available photogrammetric techniques and softcopies with the developed model. We start by defining an image reference coordinate system to unify image coordinates from all three arrays. The transformation from an image coordinate system to a reference coordinate system involves a translation and three rotations. For any image point within the linear array, its image reference coordinates, the coordinates of the exposure center of the array in the ground coordinate system at the imaging epoch (t), and the corresponding ground point coordinates are related through the collinearity condition that states that all these three points must be on the same line. The rotation angles for each CCD array at the epoch t are defined and included in the transformation model. The exterior orientation parameters of an image line, i.e., coordinates of exposure station and rotation angles, are computed by a polynomial interpolation function in time (t). The parameter (t) is the time at a certain epoch from a certain orbit position. Depending on the types of observations, coordinates, and parameters may be treated as knowns or unknowns differently in various situations. The unknown coefficients are determined in a bundle adjustment. The orientation process starts by extracting the sensor position and, orientation and raw images from the PDS. The parameters of each image line are then estimated and imported into the push-broom sensor model. We also define tie points between image pairs to aid the bundle adjustment model, determine the refined camera parameters, and generate highly accurate topographic maps. The model was tested on different satellite images such as IKONOS, QuickBird, and WorldView-2, HiRISE. It was found that the accuracy of our model is comparable to those of commercial and open-source software, the computational efficiency of the developed model is high, the model could be used in different environments with various sensors, and the implementation process is much more cost-and effort-consuming.

Keywords: photogrammetry, push-broom sensors, IKONOS, HiRISE, collinearity condition

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Authors: Sofia N. Gonçalves, Duarte M. S. Albuquerque, José C. F. Pereira

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The energy transition is spurred by structural changes in energy demand, supply, and prices. Microwave technology was first proposed as a faster alternative for cooking food. It was found that food heated instantly when interacting with high-frequency electromagnetic waves. The dielectric properties account for a material’s ability to absorb electromagnetic energy and dissipate this energy in the form of heat. Many energy-intense industries could benefit from electromagnetic heating since many of the raw materials are dielectric at high temperatures. Limestone sedimentary rock is a dielectric material intensively used in the cement industry to produce unslaked lime. A numerical 3D model was implemented in COMSOL Multiphysics to study the limestone continuous processing under microwave heating. The model solves the two-way coupling between the Energy equation and Maxwell’s equations as well as the coupling between heat transfer and chemical interfaces. Complementary, a controller was implemented to optimize the overall heating efficiency and control the numerical model stability. This was done by continuously matching the cavity impedance and predicting the required energy for the system, avoiding energy inefficiencies. This controller was developed in MATLAB and successfully fulfilled all these goals. The limestone load influence on thermal decomposition and overall process efficiency was the main object of this study. The procedure considered the Verification and Validation of the chemical kinetics model separately from the coupled model. The chemical model was found to correctly describe the chosen kinetic equation, and the coupled model successfully solved the equations describing the numerical model. The interaction between flow of material and electric field Poynting vector revealed to influence limestone decomposition, as a result from the low dielectric properties of limestone. The numerical model considered this effect and took advantage from this interaction. The model was demonstrated to be highly unstable when solving non-linear temperature distributions. Limestone has a dielectric loss response that increases with temperature and has low thermal conductivity. For this reason, limestone is prone to produce thermal runaway under electromagnetic heating, as well as numerical model instabilities. Five different scenarios were tested by considering a material fill ratio of 30%, 50%, 65%, 80%, and 100%. Simulating the tube rotation for mixing enhancement was proven to be beneficial and crucial for all loads considered. When uniform temperature distribution is accomplished, the electromagnetic field and material interaction is facilitated. The results pointed out the inefficient development of the electric field within the bed for 30% fill ratio. The thermal efficiency showed the propensity to stabilize around 90%for loads higher than 50%. The process accomplished a maximum microwave efficiency of 75% for the 80% fill ratio, sustaining that the tube has an optimal fill of material. Electric field peak detachment was observed for the case with 100% fill ratio, justifying the lower efficiencies compared to 80%. Microwave technology has been demonstrated to be an important ally for the decarbonization of the cement industry.

Keywords: CFD numerical simulations, efficiency optimization, electromagnetic heating, impedance matching, limestone continuous processing

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Authors: Sricheta Chowdhury

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To require a woman to choose between her work and her personal life is the most acute form of discrimination that can be meted out against her. No woman should be given a choice to choose between her motherhood and her career at Bar, yet that is the most detrimental discrimination that has been happening in Indian Bar, which no one has questioned so far. The falling number of women in practice is a reality that isn’t garnering much attention given the sharp rise in women studying law but is not being able to continue in the profession. Moving from a colonial misogynist whim to a post-colonial “new-age construct of Indian woman” façade, the policymakers of the Indian Judiciary have done nothing so far to decolonize itself from its rudimentary understanding of ‘equality of gender’ when it comes to the legal profession. Therefore, when Indian jurisprudence was (and is) swooning to the sweeping effect of transformative constitutionalism in the understanding of equality as enshrined under the Indian Constitution, one cannot help but question why the legal profession remained out of brushing effect of achieving substantive equality. The Airline industry’s discriminatory policies were not spared from criticism, nor were the policies where women’s involvement in any establishment serving liquor (Anuj Garg case), but the judicial practice did not question the stereotypical bias of gender and unequal structural practices until recently. That necessitates the need to examine the existing Bar policies and the steps taken by the regulatory bodies in assessing the situations that are in favor or against the purpose of furthering women’s issues in present-day India. From a comparative feminist point of concern, South Africa’s pro-women Bar policies are attractive to assess their applicability and extent in terms of promoting inclusivity at the Bar. This article intends to tap on these two countries’ potential in carving a niche in giving women an equal platform to play a substantive role in designing governance policies through the Judiciary. The article analyses the current gender composition of the legal profession while endorsing the concept of substantive equality as a requisite in designing an appropriate appointment process of the judges. It studies the theoretical framework on gender equality, examines the international and regional instruments and analyses the scope of welfare policies that Indian legal and regulatory bodies can undertake towards a transformative initiative in re-modeling the Judiciary to a more diverse and inclusive institution. The methodology employs a comparative and analytical understanding of doctrinal resources. It makes quantitative use of secondary data and qualitative use of primary data collected for determining the present status of Indian women legal practitioners and judges. With respect to quantitative data, statistics on the representation of women as judges and chief justices and senior advocates from their official websites from 2018 till present have been utilized. In respect of qualitative data, results of the structured interviews conducted through open and close-ended questions with retired lady judges of the higher judiciary and senior advocates of the Supreme Court of India, contacted through snowball sampling, are utilized.

Keywords: gender, higher judiciary, legal profession, representation, substantive equality

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Authors: Miroslav Premrov, Andrej Štrukelj, Erika Kozem Šilih

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The utilization of prefabricated timber-wall elements with double glazing, called as double-skin façade element (DSF), represents an innovative structural approach in the context of new high-rise timber construction, simultaneously combining sustainable solutions with improved energy efficiency and living quality. In addition to the minimum energy needs of buildings, the design of modern buildings is also increasingly focused on the optimal indoor comfort, in particular on sufficient natural light indoors. An optimally energy-designed building with an optimal layout of glazed areas around the building envelope represents a great potential in modern timber construction. Usually, all these transparent façade elements, because of energy benefits, are primary asymmetrical oriented and if they are considered as non-resisting against a horizontal load impact, a strong torsion effects in the building can appear. The problem of structural stability against a strong horizontal load impact of such modern timber buildings especially increase in a case of high-rise structures where additional bracing elements have to be used. In such a case, special diagonal bracing systems or other bracing solutions with common timber wall elements have to be incorporated into the structure of the building to satisfy all prescribed resisting requirements given by the standards. However, all such structural solutions are usually not environmentally friendly and also not contribute to an improved living comfort, or they are not accepted by the architects at all. Consequently, it is a special need to develop innovative load-bearing timber-glass wall elements which are in the same time environmentally friendly, can increase internal comfort in the building, but are also load-bearing. The new developed load-bearing DSF elements can be a good answer on all these requirements. Timber-glass façade elements DSF wall elements consist of two transparent layers, thermal-insulated three-layered glass pane on the internal side and an additional single-layered glass pane on the external side of the wall. The both panes are separated by an air channel which can be of any dimensions and can have a significant influence on the thermal insulation or acoustic response of such a wall element. Most already published studies on DSF elements primarily deal only with energy and LCA solutions and do not address any structural problems. In previous studies according to experimental analysis and mathematical modeling it was already presented a possible benefit of such load-bearing DSF elements, especially comparing with previously developed load-bearing single-skin timber wall elements, but they were not applicate yet in any high-rise timber structure. Therefore, in the presented study specially selected 10-storey prefabricated timber building constructed in a cross-laminated timber (CLT) structural wall system is analyzed using the developed DSF elements in a sense to increase a structural lateral stability of the whole building. The results evidently highlight the importance the load-bearing DSF elements, as their incorporation can have a significant impact on the overall behavior of the structure through their influence on the stiffness properties. Taking these considerations into account is crucial to ensure compliance with seismic design codes and to improve the structural resilience of high-rise timber buildings.

Keywords: glass, high-rise buildings, numerical analysis, timber

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Authors: Niveen Hassan-Abbas, Tammie Ronen-Rosenbaum

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Background and purpose: 'Flourishing in marriage' is a concept refers to married individuals’ high positivity ratio regarding their marriage, namely greater reported positive than negative emotions. The study proposes a different approach to marriage which emphasizes the place of the individual himself as largely responsible for his personal flourishing within marriage. Accordingly, the individual's desire to preserve and strengthen his marriage largely determines the marital behavior in a way that will contribute to his marriage success (Actor Effect), regardless the contribution of his or her partner to his marriage success (Partner Effect). Another assumption was that flourishing in marriage could be achieved by two separate processes, where capitalization support increases the positive marriage's evaluations and accommodation decreases the negative one. A theoretical model was constructed, whereby individuals who were committed to their marriage were hypothesized as employing self-control skills by way of two dynamic processes. First, individual’s higher degree of 'capitalization supportive responses' - supportive responses to the partner's sharing of positive personal experiences - was hypothesized as increasing one’s positive evaluations of marriage and thereby one’s positivity ratio. Second, individual’s higher degree of 'accommodation' responses - the ability during conflict situations to control the impulse to respond destructively and instead to respond constructively - was hypothesized as decreasing one’s negative evaluations of marriage and thereby increasing one’s positivity ratio. Methods: Participants were 156 heterosexual Arab couples from different regions of Israel. The mean period of marriage was 10.19 (SD=7.83), ages were 31.53 years for women (SD=8.12) and 36.80 years for men (SD=8.07). Years of education were 13.87 for women (SD=2.84) and 13.23 years for men (SD=3.45). Each participant completed seven questionnaires: socio-demographic, self-control skills, commitment, capitalization support, accommodation, marital quality, positive and negative affect. Using statistical analyses adapted to dyadic research design, firstly descriptive statistics were calculated and preliminary tests were performed. Next, dyadic model based on the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model (APIM) were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM). Results: The assumption according to which flourishing in marriage can be achieved by two processes was confirmed. All of the Actor Effect hypotheses were confirmed. Participants with higher self-control used more capitalization support and accommodation responses. Among husbands, unlike wives, these correlations were stronger when the individual's commitment level was higher. More capitalization supportive responses were found to increase positive evaluations of marriage, and greater spousal accommodation was found to decrease negative evaluations of marriage. High positive evaluations and low negative evaluations were found to increase positivity ratio. Not according to expectation, four partner effect paths were found significant. Conclusions and Implications: The present findings coincide with the positive psychology approach that emphasizes human strengths. The uniqueness of this study is its proposal that individuals are largely responsible for their personal flourishing in marriage. This study demonstrated that marital flourishing can be achieved by two processes, where capitalization increases the positive and accommodation decreases the negative. Practical implications include the need to construct interventions that enhance self-control skills for employment of capitalizing responsiveness and accommodation processes.

Keywords: accommodation, capitalization support, commitment, flourishing in marriage, positivity ratio, self-control skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Kimberly Samaha

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In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, new methodologies to analyze investment risk are needed. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. This study modeled the economics and risk strategies of cradle-to-cradle linkages to incorporate the value-chain effects on capital/operational expenditures and investment risk reductions using a proprietary techno-economic model that incorporates investment risk scenarios utilizing the Monte Carlo methodology. The study calculated the sequential increases in profitability for each additional co-host on an operating forestry-based biomass energy plant in West Enfield, Maine. Phase I starts with the base-line of forestry biomass to electricity only and was built up in stages to include co-hosts of a greenhouse and a land-based shrimp farm. Phase I incorporates CO2 and heat waste streams from the operating power plant in an analysis of lowering and stabilizing the operating costs of the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Phase II analysis incorporated a jet-fuel biorefinery and its secondary slip-stream of biochar which would be developed into two additional bio-products: 1) A soil amendment compost for agriculture and 2) A biochar effluent filter for the aquaculture. The second part of the study applied the Monte Carlo risk methodology to illustrate how co-location derisks investment in an integrated Bio-Hub versus individual investments in stand-alone projects of energy, agriculture or aquaculture. The analyzed scenarios compared reductions in both Capital and Operating Expenditures, which stabilizes profits and reduces the investment risk associated with projects in energy, agriculture, and aquaculture. The major findings of this techno-economic modeling using the Monte Carlo technique resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. In 2018, the site was designated as an economic opportunity zone as part of a Federal Program, which allows for Capital Gains tax benefits for investments on the site. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. The Bio-hub Ecosystems techno-economic analysis model is a critical model to expedite new standards for investments in circular zero-waste projects. Profitable projects will expedite adoption and advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable Bio-Economy paradigm that supports local and rural communities.

Keywords: bio-economy, investment risk, circular design, economic modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 101