Search results for: hybrid forecasting model

Authors: Ala Abdessemed, Mohamed Seddik Oussama Belahmadi, Nabil Charchar, Abdefettah Gherib, Bradai Fares, Boussadia Chouaib Nour El-Islem

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Algerian cities are confronted with large quantities of waste generated by the disposal of household and similar residues in technical landfills (CET), such as the one in the location of Batna. The interaction between waste components and incoming water generates leachates rich in organic matter and trace elements, which require treatment before discharge. The aim of this study was to propose an effective process for treating the leachates, which were subjected to an initial chemical treatment using the (H₂O₂/UV) system. Optimal treatment conditions were determined at [H₂O₂] of 0.3 M and pH of 8.6. Next, two hybrid biological treatment systems were applied: hybrid system I (H₂O₂/UV/bacteria) and hybrid system II (H₂O₂/UV/bacteria/microalgae). The three processes resulted in the following degradation rates, expressed in terms of total organic carbon (TOC) 27.4% for the (H₂O₂/UV) system; 58.1% for the hybrid system I (H₂O₂/UV/Bacteria); 67.86% for the hybrid system II (H₂O₂/UV/Bacteria/Microalgae). This study demonstrates that a hybrid approach combining advanced oxidation processes and biological treatments is a highly effective alternative to achieve satisfactory treatment.

Keywords: leachate, landfill, advanced oxidation processes, biological treatment, bacteria, microalgae, total organic carbon

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Authors: Deng Zengming, Wang Mingjiang

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As 3D video is explored as a hot research topic in the last few decades, free-viewpoint TV (FTV) is no doubt a promising field for its better visual experience and incomparable interactivity. View synthesis is obviously a crucial technology for FTV; it enables to render images in unlimited numbers of virtual viewpoints with the information from limited numbers of reference view. In this paper, a novel hybrid synthesis framework is proposed and blending priority is explored. In contrast to the commonly used View Synthesis Reference Software (VSRS), the presented synthesis process is driven in consideration of the temporal correlation of image sequences. The temporal correlations will be exploited to produce fine synthesis results even near the foreground boundaries. As for the blending priority, this scheme proposed that one of the two reference views is selected to be the main reference view based on the distance between the reference views and virtual view, another view is chosen as the auxiliary viewpoint, just assist to fill the hole pixel with the help of background information. Significant improvement of the proposed approach over the state-of –the-art pixel-based virtual view synthesis method is presented, the results of the experiments show that subjective gains can be observed, and objective PSNR average gains range from 0.5 to 1.3 dB, while SSIM average gains range from 0.01 to 0.05.

Keywords: fusion method, Gaussian mixture model, hybrid framework, view synthesis

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Authors: Pruethipong Xinghatiraj, Rajwanlop Kumpoopong

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Considering the current situation of road safety, Thailand has the world’s second-highest road fatality rate. Therefore, decreasing the road accidents in Thailand is a prime policy of the Thai government seeking to accomplish. One of the approaches to reduce the accident rate is to improve road environments to fit with the local behavior of the road users. The Department of Highways ensures that choosing the road median types right to the road characteristics, e.g. roadside characteristics, traffic volume, truck traffic percentage, etc., can decrease the possibility of accident occurrence. Presently, raised median, depressed median, painted median and median barriers are typically used in Thailand Highways. In this study, factors affecting road accident for each median type will be discovered through the analysis of the collecting of accident data, death numbers on sample of 600 Kilometers length across the country together with its roadside characteristics, traffic volume, heavy vehicles percentage, and other key factors. The benefits of this study can assist the Highway designers to select type of road medians that can match local environments and then cause less accident prone.

Keywords: highways, road safety, road median, forecasting model

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Authors: Velázquez Alejandro, Pradhan Sujan, Yoon Rokhyun, Sanada Yasushi

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The utilization of new materials as an alternative solution to decrease the environmental impact of the construction industry has been gaining more relevance in the architectural design and construction industry. One such material is cross-laminated timber (CLT), an engineered timber solution that excels for its faster construction times, workability, lightweight, and capacity for carbon storage. This material is usually used alone for the entire structure or combined with steel frames, but a hybrid with reinforced concrete (RC) is rarer. Since RC is one of the most used materials worldwide, a hybrid with CLT would allow further utilization of the latter, and in the process, it would help reduce the environmental impact of RC construction to achieve a sustainable society, but first, the structural performance of such hybrids must be understood. This paper focuses on proposing a model to predict the seismic performance of RC frames with CLT panels as infills. A series of static horizontal cyclic loading experiments were conducted on two 40% scale specimens of reinforced concrete frames with and without CLT panels at Osaka University, Japan. An analytical model was created to simulate the seismic performance of the RC frame with CLT infill based on the experimental results. The proposed model was verified by comparing the experimental and analytical results, showing that the load-deformation relationship and the failure mechanism agreed well with limited error. Hence, the proposed analytical model can be implemented for the seismic performance evaluation of the RC frames with CLT infill.

Keywords: analytical model, multi spring, performance evaluation, reinforced concrete, rocking mechanism, wooden wall

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Authors: M. T. Z. Butt, T. Ahmad, N. A. Siddiqui

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Commercially SA 516 Grade 70 is frequently used for the manufacturing of pressure vessels, boilers and storage tanks etc. in fabrication industry. Heat input is the major parameter during welding that may bring significant changes in the microstructure as well as the mechanical properties. Different welding technique has different heat input rate per unit surface area. Materials with large thickness are dealt with different combination of welding techniques to achieve required mechanical properties. In the present research two schemes: Scheme 1: SMAW (Shielded Metal Arc Welding) & GTAW (Gas Tungsten Arc Welding) and Scheme 2: SMAW & SAW (Submerged Arc Welding) of hybrid welding techniques have been studied. The purpose of these schemes was to study hybrid welding effect on the microstructure and mechanical properties of the weldment, heat affected zone and base metal area. It is significant to note that the thickness of base plate was 12 mm, also welding conditions and parameters were set according to ASME Section IX. It was observed that two different hybrid welding techniques performed on two different plates demonstrated that the mechanical properties of both schemes are more or less similar. It means that the heat input, welding techniques and varying welding operating conditions & temperatures did not make any detrimental effect on the mechanical properties. Hence, the hybrid welding techniques mentioned in the present study are favorable to implicate for the industry using the plate thickness around 12 mm thick.

Keywords: grade 70, GTAW, hybrid welding, SAW, SMAW

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Authors: Hamid Rostami Jaz, Kamran Ameri Siahooei

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Up to now different methods have been used to forecast the index returns and the index rate. Artificial intelligence and artificial neural networks have been one of the methods of index returns forecasting. This study attempts to carry out a comparative study on the performance of different Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network to forecast investment returns on the index. To achieve this goal, the return on investment in Tehran Stock Exchange index is evaluated and the performance of Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network are compared. Neural networks performance test is applied based on the least square error in two approaches of in-sample and out-of-sample. The research results show the superiority of the radial base neural network in the in-sample approach and the superiority of perceptron neural network in the out-of-sample approach.

Keywords: exchange index, forecasting, perceptron neural network, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Nandy Putra, Imansyah Ibnu Hakim, Iwan Setyawan, Muhammad Zayd A.I

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A two-phase cooling technology of passive system sometimes can no longer meet the cooling needs of an increasingly challenging due to the inherent limitations of the capillary pumping for example in terms of the heat flux that can lead to dry out. In this study, intended to overcome the dry out with the addition of a diaphragm, they pump to accelerate the fluid transportation from the condenser to the evaporator. Diaphragm pump installed on the bypass line. When it did not happen dry out then the hybrid loop heat pipe will be work passively using a capillary pressure of wick. Meanwhile, when necessary, hybrid loop heat pipe will be work actively, using diaphragm pump with temperature control installed on the evaporator. From the results, it can be said that the pump has been successfully overcome dry out and can distribute working fluid from the condenser to the evaporator and reduce the temperature of the evaporator from 143°C to 100°C as a temperature controlled where the pump start actively at set point 100°C.

Keywords: hybrid, heat pipe, dry out, assisted, pump

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Authors: Xinhuang Wu, Yousef Sardahi

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A hybrid and optimal multi-loop control structure combining linear and nonlinear control algorithms are introduced in this paper to regulate the position of a quadcopter unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) driven by four brushless DC motors. To this end, a nonlinear mathematical model of the UAV is derived and then linearized around one of its operating points. Using the nonlinear version of the model, a sliding mode control is used to derive the control laws of the motor thrust forces required to drive the UAV to a certain position. The linear model is used to design two controllers, XG-controller and YG-controller, responsible for calculating the required roll and pitch to maneuver the vehicle to the desired X and Y position. Three attitude controllers are designed to calculate the desired angular rates of rotors, assuming that the Euler angles are minimal. After that, a many-objective optimization problem involving 20 design parameters and ten objective functions is formulated and solved by HypE (Hypervolume estimation algorithm), one of the widely used many-objective optimization algorithms approaches. Both stability and performance constraints are imposed on the optimization problem. The optimization results in terms of Pareto sets and fronts are obtained and show that some of the design objectives are competing. That is, when one objective goes down, the other goes up. Also, Numerical simulations conducted on the nonlinear UAV model show that the proposed optimization method is quite effective.

Keywords: optimal control, many-objective optimization, sliding mode control, linear control, cascade controllers, UAV, drones

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Authors: Denis V. Shutin, Alexander Yu. Babin, Leonid A. Savin

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One of the ways of reducing vibroactivity of rotor systems is to apply active hybrid bearings. Their design allows correction of the rotor’s location by means of separately controlling the supply pressure of the lubricant into the friction area. In a most simple case, the control system is based on a P-regulator. Increase of the gain coefficient allows decreasing the amplitude of rotor’s vibrations. The same effect can be achieved by means of increasing the pressure in the collector of a traditional passive hybrid bearing. However, these approaches affect the dynamic characteristics of the bearing differently. Theoretical studies show that the increase of the gain coefficient of an active bearing increases the stiffness of the bearing, as well as the increase of the pressure in the collector. Nevertheless, in case of a passive bearing, the damping properties deteriorate, whereas the active hybrid bearings obtain higher damping properties, which allow effectively providing the energy dissipation of the rotor vibrations and reducing the load on the constructional elements of a machine.

Keywords: active bearings, control system, damping, hybrid bearings, stiffness

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Authors: R. Latif, W. Jenkal, A. Toumanari, A. Hatim

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This paper presents an efficient method of electrocardiogram signal denoising based on a hybrid approach. Two techniques are brought together to create an efficient denoising process. The first is an Adaptive Dual Threshold Filter (ADTF) and the second is the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). The presented approach is based on three steps of denoising, the DWT decomposition, the ADTF step and the highest peaks correction step. This paper presents some application of the approach on some electrocardiogram signals of the MIT-BIH database. The results of these applications are promising compared to other recently published techniques.

Keywords: hybrid technique, ADTF, DWT, thresholding, ECG signal

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Authors: Jinkoo Kim, Hyungoo Kang, Hyungjun Shin

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In this study, a hybrid energy dissipation device is developed by combining a steel slit plate and friction pads to be used for seismic retrofit of structures, and its effectiveness is investigated by comparing the life cycle costs of the structure before and after the retrofit. The seismic energy dissipation capability of the dampers is confirmed by cyclic loading tests. The probabilities of reaching various damage states are obtained by fragility analysis, and the life cycle costs of the model structures are computed using the PACT (Performance Assessment Calculation Tool) program based on FEMA P-58 methodology. The fragility analysis shows that the probabilities of reaching limit states are minimized by the seismic retrofit with hybrid dampers and increasing column size. The seismic retrofit with increasing column size and hybrid dampers results in the lowest repair cost and shortest repair time.

Keywords: slit dampers, friction dampers, seismic retrofit, life cycle cost, FEMA P-58, PACT

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Authors: C. Manjula, Lilly Florence

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Software technology is developing rapidly which leads to the growth of various industries. Now-a-days, software-based applications have been adopted widely for business purposes. For any software industry, development of reliable software is becoming a challenging task because a faulty software module may be harmful for the growth of industry and business. Hence there is a need to develop techniques which can be used for early prediction of software defects. Due to complexities in manual prediction, automated software defect prediction techniques have been introduced. These techniques are based on the pattern learning from the previous software versions and finding the defects in the current version. These techniques have attracted researchers due to their significant impact on industrial growth by identifying the bugs in software. Based on this, several researches have been carried out but achieving desirable defect prediction performance is still a challenging task. To address this issue, here we present a machine learning based hybrid technique for software defect prediction. First of all, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented where an improved fitness function is used for better optimization of features in data sets. Later, these features are processed through Decision Tree (DT) classification model. Finally, an experimental study is presented where results from the proposed GA-DT based hybrid approach is compared with those from the DT classification technique. The results show that the proposed hybrid approach achieves better classification accuracy.

Keywords: decision tree, genetic algorithm, machine learning, software defect prediction

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Authors: S. Kassou, R. El Mrabet, A. Belaaraj, P. Guionneau, N. Hadi, T. Lamcharfi

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The organic–inorganic hybrid perovskite-like [C₆H₅C₂H₄NH₃]₂ZnCl₄ (PEA-ZnCl₄) was synthesized by saturated solutions method. X-ray powder diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, UV-visible transmittance, and capacitance meter measurements have been used to characterize the structure, the functional groups, the optical parameters, and the dielectric constants of the material. The material has a layered structure. The optical transmittance (T %) was recorded and applied to deduce the absorption coefficient (α) and optical band gap (Eg). The hybrid shows an insulator character with a direct band gap about 4.46 eV, and presents high dielectric constants up to a frequency of about 10⁵ Hz, which suggests a ferroelectric behavior. The reported optical and dielectric properties can help to understand the fundamental properties of perovskite materials and also to be used for optimizing or designing new devices.

Keywords: dielectric constants, optical band gap (eg), optical parameters, Raman spectroscopy, self-assembly organic inorganic hybrid

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Authors: Santimoy Khilari, Debabrata Pradhan

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Ever−increasing energy demand and growing energy crisis along with environmental issues emphasize the research on sustainable energy conversion and storage systems. Recently, supercapacitors or electrochemical capacitors emerge as a promising energy storage technology for future generation. The activity of supercapacitors generally depends on the efficiency of its electrode materials. So, the development of cost−effective efficient electrode materials for supercapacitors is one of the challenges to the scientific community. Transition metal oxides with spinel crystal structure receive much attention for different electrochemical applications in energy storage/conversion devices because of their improved performance as compared to simple oxides. In the present study, we have synthesized polypyrrole (PPy) supported manganese cobaltite nanorods (MnCo2O4 NRs) hybrid electrode material for supercapacitor application. The MnCo2O4 NRs were synthesized by a simple hydrothermal and calcination approach. The MnCo2O4 NRs/PPy hybrid was prepared by in situ impregnation of MnCo2O4 NRs during polymerization of pyrrole. The surface morphology and microstructure of as−synthesized samples was characterized by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy, respectively. The crystallographic phase of MnCo2O4 NRs, PPy and hybrid was determined by X-ray diffraction. Electrochemical charge storage activity of MnCo2O4 NRs, PPy and MnCo2O4 NRs/PPy hybrid was evaluated from cyclic voltammetry, chronopotentiometry and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Significant improvement of specific capacitance was achieved in MnCo2O4 NRs/PPy hybrid as compared to the individual components. Furthermore, the mechanically mixed MnCo2O4 NRs, and PPy shows lower specific capacitance as compared to MnCo2O4 NRs/PPy hybrid suggesting the importance of in situ hybrid preparation. The stability of as prepared electrode materials was tested by cyclic charge-discharge measurement for 1000 cycles. Maximum 94% capacitance was retained with MnCo2O4 NRs/PPy hybrid electrode. This study suggests that MnCo2O4 NRs/PPy hybrid can be used as a low cost electrode material for charge storage in supercapacitors.

Keywords: supercapacitors, nanorods, spinel, MnCo2O4, polypyrrole

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Authors: Anurag Sharma, Rahul Malhotra, Love Kumar, Harjit Pal Singh

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This paper demonstrates OCDM-ROF based hybrid architecture where data/voice communication is enabled via a permutation of Optical Code Division Multiplexing (OCDM) and Radio-over-Fiber (RoF) techniques under various diverse conditions. OCDM-RoF hybrid network of 16 users with DPSK modulation format has been designed and performance of proposed network is analyzed for 100, 150, and 200 km fiber span length under the influence of linear and nonlinear effect. It has been reported that Polarization Mode Dispersion (PMD) has the least effect while other nonlinearity affects the performance of proposed network.

Keywords: OCDM, RoF, DPSK, PMD, eye diagram, BER, Q factor

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Authors: Byung hyun Bae

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In power transformer, leakage magnetic flux generate temperature rise of inner steel plate. Sometimes, this temperature rise can be serious problem. If temperature of steel plate is over critical point, harmful gas will be generated in the tank. And this gas can be a reason of fire, explosion and life decrease. So, temperature rise forecasting of steel plate is very important at the design stage of power transformer. To improve accuracy of forecasting of temperature rise, comparison between simulation and experiment achieved in this paper.

Keywords: power transformer, steel plate, temperature rise, experiment, simulation

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Authors: P. Satish Kumar, K. Ramakrishna, Ch. Lokeshwar Reddy, G. Sridhar

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This paper presents two different sequential switching hybrid-modulation strategies and implemented for cascaded multilevel inverters. Hybrid modulation strategies represent the combinations of Fundamental-Frequency Pulse Width Modulation (FFPWM) and Multilevel Sinusoidal-Modulation (MSPWM) strategies, and are designed for performance of the well-known Alternative Phase Opposition Disposition (APOD), Phase Shifted Carrier (PSC). The main characteristics of these modulations are the reduction of switching losses with good harmonic performance, balanced power loss dissipation among the devices with in a cell, and among the series-connected cells. The feasibility of these modulations is verified through spectral analysis, power loss analysis and simulation.

Keywords: cascaded multilevel inverters, hybrid modulation, power loss analysis, pulse width modulation

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Authors: Akshay Paranjape, Nils Plettenberg, Robert Schmitt

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Traditional optimization methods like evolutionary algorithms are widely used in production processes to find an optimal or near-optimal solution of control parameters based on the simulated environment space of a process. These algorithms are computationally intensive and therefore do not provide the opportunity for real-time optimization. This paper utilizes the Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) framework to find an optimal or near-optimal solution for control parameters. A model based on maximum a posteriori policy optimization (Hybrid-MPO) that can handle both numerical and categorical parameters is used as a benchmark for comparison. A comparative study shows that DRL can find optimal solutions of similar quality as compared to evolutionary algorithms while requiring significantly less time making them preferable for real-time optimization. The results are confirmed in a large-scale validation study on datasets from production and other fields. A trained XGBoost model is used as a surrogate for process simulation. Finally, multiple ways to improve the model are discussed.

Keywords: reinforcement learning, evolutionary algorithms, production process optimization, real-time optimization, hybrid-MPO

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Authors: Siti Rahmah Shamsuri, Eiichiro Matsubara, Shohei Shiomi

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The 1D nanomaterial is far surpassed the 0D nanomaterial. It does not just offer most of the benefit of the 0D nanomaterial such as the large surface area, a great number of active site and an efficient interfacial charge transfer but also can assemble into free-standing and flexible electrode due to their high aspect ratio. Thus, it is essential to develop a simple and ease synthesis of this 1D nanomaterial for the practical application. Here, nickel nanowire/cellulose hybrid has been successfully fabricated via a simple liquid-phase method with the assist of the magnetic field. A finer nickel nanowire was heterogeneously nucleated on the surface of the cellulose fiber, which demonstrated the effect of the hydroxyl group on the cellulose structure. The result of the nickel nanowire size was found to vary from 66-114 nm. A detailed discussion on the mechanism of the nickel nanowire/ cellulose hybrid formation is also shown in this paper.

Keywords: cellulose nanofiber, liquid-phase reduction, metal nanowire, nano hybrid material

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: S. Mhamdi, O. Brendel, P. Montpied, K. Ben Yahia, N. Saouyah, B. Hasnaoui, E. Dreyer

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Leaf Life Span (LLS) is used to classify trees into two main groups: evergreen and deciduous species. It varies according to the forms of life between taxonomic groups. Co-occurrence of deciduous and evergreen oaks is common in some Mediterranean type climate areas. Nevertheless, in the Tunisian forests, there is no enough information about the functional inter-specific diversity among oak species, especially in the mixed stand marked by the simultaneous presence of Q. suber L., Q. canariensis Willd. and their hybrid (Q. afares), the latter being an endemic oak species threatened with extinction. This study has been conducted to estimate the LLS, the relative growth rate, and the count of different growth flushes of samplings in semi-controlled conditions. Our study took 17 months, with an observation's interval of 4 weeks. The aim is to characterize and compare the hybrid species to the parental ones. Differences were observed among species, both for phenology and growth. Indeed, Q. suber saplings reached higher total height and number of growth flushes then Q. canariensis, while Q. afares showed much less growth flushes than the parental species. The LLS of parental species has exceeded the duration of the experiment, but their hybrid lost all leaves on all cohorts. The short LLSs of hybrid species are in accordance with this phenology in the field, but for Q. canariensis there was a contrast with observations in the field where phenology is strictly annual. This study allowed us to differentiate the hybrid from both parental species.

Keywords: leaf life span, growth, hybrid, Q. afares Pomel, Q. suber L., Q.canariensis Willd

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Authors: Sooyoung Cho, In-Gun Kim, Hyun-Seok Hong, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

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Series hybrid UAV(Unmanned aerial vehicle) that is proposed in this paper performs VTOL(Vertical take-off and landing) using the battery and generator, and it applies the series hybrid system with combination of the small engine and generator when cruising flight. This system can be described as the next-generation system that can dramatically increase the UAV flight times. Also, UAV systems require a large energy at the time of VTOL to be conducted for a short time. Therefore, this paper designs PMSG(Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator) having a high specific power considering VTOL through the FEA.

Keywords: PMSG, VTOL, UAV, high specific power density

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

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Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn

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This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed whereas located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urbanized in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recently years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood event in 2013 as the worst studied case for those all communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as the aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in short period of 7 - 10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in advance period of rainfall with time step of 3 - 6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used to input to either the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) or the soil water assessment tool model (SWAT) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfied. The result of IDV’s rainfall forecast data was compared to observed data and found fair. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.

Keywords: global rainfall, flood forecast, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: time series modelling, ARIMA model, river runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method

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Authors: Mais Wa'ad

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The effect of transmission distance on the performance of hybrid configuration H 10-40 Gb/s with Non-Return to Zero (NRZ) pulse format, 100 GHz channel spacing, and Multiplexer/De-Multiplexer Band width (MUX/DEMUX BW) of 60 GHz has been investigated in this study. The laser Continuous Wave (CW) power launched into the modulator is set to 4 dBm. Eight neighboring DWDM channels are selected around 1550.12 nm carrying different data rates in hybrid optical communication systems travel through the same optical fiber and use the same passive and active optical modules. The simulation has been done using Optiwave Inc Optisys software. Usually, increasing distance will lead to decrease in performance; however this is not always the case, as the simulation conducted in this work, shows different system performance for each channel. This is due to differences in interaction between dispersion and non-linearity, and the differences in residual dispersion for each channel.

Keywords: dispersion and non-linearity interaction, optical hybrid configuration, multiplexer/de multiplexer bandwidth, non-return to zero, optical transmission distance, optisys

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

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Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Bayesian network, classification, expert knowledge, structure learning, surface water analysis

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Authors: Marcel Heimar Ribeiro Utiyama, Fernanda Caveiro Correia, Dario Henrique Alliprandini

Abstract:

The importance of the correct allocation of improvement programs is of growing interest in recent years. Due to their limited resources, companies must ensure that their financial resources are directed to the correct workstations in order to be the most effective and survive facing the strong competition. However, to our best knowledge, the literature about allocation of improvement programs does not analyze in depth this problem when the flow shop process has two capacity constrained resources. This is a research gap which is deeply studied in this work. The purpose of this work is to identify the best strategy to allocate improvement programs in a flow shop with two capacity constrained resources. Data were collected from a flow shop process with seven workstations in an industrial control and automation company, which process 13.690 units on average per month. The data were used to conduct a simulation with the System Dynamics-Factory Physics model. The main variables considered, due to their importance on lead time reduction, were the mean time between failures and the mean time to repair. The lead time reduction was the output measure of the simulations. Ten different strategies were created: (i) focused time to repair improvement, (ii) focused time between failures improvement, (iii) distributed time to repair improvement, (iv) distributed time between failures improvement, (v) focused time to repair and time between failures improvement, (vi) distributed time to repair and between failures improvement, (vii) hybrid time to repair improvement, (viii) hybrid time between failures improvements, (ix) time to repair improvement strategy towards the two capacity constrained resources, (x) time between failures improvement strategy towards the two capacity constrained resources. The ten strategies tested are variations of the three main strategies for improvement programs named focused, distributed and hybrid. Several comparisons among the effect of the ten strategies in lead time reduction were performed. The results indicated that for the flow shop analyzed, the focused strategies delivered the best results. When it is not possible to perform a large investment on the capacity constrained resources, companies should use hybrid approaches. An important contribution to the academy is the hybrid approach, which proposes a new way to direct the efforts of improvements. In addition, the study in a flow shop with two strong capacity constrained resources (more than 95% of utilization) is an important contribution to the literature. Another important contribution is the problem of allocation with two CCRs and the possibility of having floating capacity constrained resources. The results provided the best improvement strategies considering the different strategies of allocation of improvement programs and different positions of the capacity constrained resources. Finally, it is possible to state that both strategies, hybrid time to repair improvement and hybrid time between failures improvement, delivered best results compared to the respective distributed strategies. The main limitations of this study are mainly regarding the flow shop analyzed. Future work can further investigate different flow shop configurations like a varying number of workstations, different number of products or even different positions of the two capacity constrained resources.

Keywords: allocation of improvement programs, capacity constrained resource, hybrid strategy, lead time, mean time to repair, mean time between failures

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Authors: Rai Mansoor Imtiaz

Abstract:

Guardians in hybrid regimes fragment opposition parties and ban their political leaders, and disenfranchise their voters' political participation. When guardians in hybrid regimes are so powerful that they remain decisive on electoral politics of states, and have powers to ban political parties and their leadership, then "why do political parties backed by those powerful guardians lose elections" and "how do anti-establishment parties make electoral inroads at the local and national levels." These two questions are interrelated with the key research question of my research "why do people vote for political parties rejected by powerful guardians in establishmentarian democracies." Furthermore, this research question is important to be explored for two reasons. First, existing literature only reflects the electoral victories of opposition parties or defeats of military-sponsored parties (see Thailand and Turkey) but remains silent on political change that led the anti-military parties to win the elections. Second, why is it a case that people belonging to the countries where militaries remain popular among the public (see Turkey and Pakistan) have started putting their trust in anti-establishment politicians who criticise the military against their intervention in politics? For instance, in Pakistan, where commenting against the military is meant to comment against the state –– an anti-military narrative is getting popular support. The conceptual framework of hybrid states in this research relies on the concept of a 'reserved domain/tutelary body' (guardians of hybrid states). However, this research makes a case that hybrid states are not consolidated separate political entities but rather vacillated states that fluctuate between democratic and authoritarian practices. This paper, therefore, uses the term establishmentarian democracy as a subtype of the hybrid regime, which is more consolidated than a hybrid democracy.

Keywords: Guardians, Hybrid Regimes, Voters, Elections, Democracy, South Asia

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Authors: Supriya H. S., Chandrakala B. M.

Abstract:

Deep learning based models have been recently successful adoption for network traffic prediction. However, training a deep learning model for various prediction tasks is considered one of the critical tasks due to various reasons. This research work develops Multi-Layer Hybrid Network (MLHN) for network traffic prediction and analysis; MLHN comprises the three distinctive networks for handling the different inputs for custom feature extraction. Furthermore, an optimized and efficient parameter-tuning algorithm is introduced to enhance parameter learning. MLHN is evaluated considering the “Big Data Challenge” dataset considering the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and R^2as metrics; furthermore, MLHN efficiency is proved through comparison with a state-of-art approach.

Keywords: MLHN, network traffic prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 85