Search results for: emerging risks

Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

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It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: cross ABC method, customs supply chain, risk, risk management

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Authors: Riyadh Alsultani, Ali Majdi

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It is necessary to develop a design methodology that includes the possibility of seismic events occurring in a region, the vulnerability of the civil hydraulic structure, and the effects of the occurrence hazard on society, environment, and economy in order to evaluate the flood and earthquake risks of coastal bridge networks. This paper presents a design approach for the assessment of the risk and sustainability of coastal bridge networks under time-variant flood-earthquake conditions. The social, environmental, and economic indicators of the network are used to measure its sustainability. These consist of anticipated loss, downtime, energy waste, and carbon dioxide emissions. The design process takes into account the possibility of happening in a set of flood and earthquake scenarios that represent the local seismic activity. Based on the performance of each bridge as determined by fragility assessments, network linkages are measured. The network's connections and bridges' damage statuses after an earthquake scenario determine the network's sustainability and danger. The sustainability measures' temporal volatility and the danger of structural degradation are both highlighted. The method is shown using a transportation network in Baghdad, Iraq.

Keywords: sustainability, Coastal bridge networks, flood-earthquake risk, structural design

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Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability

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Authors: Tebogo Sethibe, Jabulile Mabuza

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been commonly referred to as a ‘black swan event’; it has changed the world, from how people live, learn, work and socialise. It is believed that the pandemic has fast-tracked the adoption of technology in many organisations to ensure business continuity and business sustainability; broadly said, the pandemic has fast-tracked digital transformation (DT) in different organisations. This paper aims to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on DT in organisations in South Africa by focusing on the changes in IT capabilities in the DT framework. The research design is qualitative. The data collection was through semi-structured interviews with information communication technology (ICT) leaders representing different organisations in South Africa. The data were analysed using the thematic analysis process. The results from the study show that, in terms of ICT in the organisation, the pandemic had a direct and positive impact on ICT strategy and ICT operations. In terms of IT capability transformation, the pandemic resulted in the optimisation and expansion of existing IT capabilities in the organisation and the building of new IT capabilities to meet emerging business needs. In terms of the focus of activities during the pandemic, there seems to be a split in organisations between the primary focus being on ‘digital IT’ or ‘traditional IT’. Overall, the findings of the study show that the pandemic had a positive and significant impact on DT in organisations. However, a definitive conclusion on this would require expanding the scope of the research to all the components of a comprehensive DT framework. This study is significant because it is one of the first studies to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on organisations, on ICT in the organisation, on IT capability transformation and, to a greater extent, DT. The findings from the study show that in response to the pandemic, there is a need for: (i) agility in organisations; (ii) organisations to execute on their existing strategy; (iii) the future-proofing of IT capabilities; (iv) the adoption of a hybrid working model; and for (v) organisations to take risks and embrace new ideas.

Keywords: digital transformation, COVID-19, bimodal-IT, digital transformation framework

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Authors: O. A. Adeyemi, M. O. Idris, W. A. Oke, O. T. Olorode, S. O. Alayande, A. E. Adeoye

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the process of capability building at subsidiary level and the challenges to such process. The relevance of external factors for capability development, have not been explicitly addressed in empirical studies. Though, internal factors, acting as enablers, have been more extensively studied. With reference to external factors, subsidiaries are actively influenced by specific characteristics of the host country, implying a need to become fully immersed in local culture and practices. Specifically, in MNCs, there has been a widespread trend in management practice to increase subsidiary autonomy,  with subsidiary managers being encouraged to act entrepreneurially, and to take advantage of host country specificity. As such, it could be proposed that: P1: The degree at which subsidiary management is connected to the host country, will positively influence the capability development process. Dynamic capabilities reside to a large measure with the subsidiary management team, but are impacted by the organizational processes, systems and structures that the MNC headquarter has designed to manage its business. At the subsidiary level, the weight of the subsidiary in the network, its initiative-taking and its profile building increase the supportive attention of the HQs and are relevant to the success of the process of capability building. Therefore, our second proposition is that: P2: Subsidiary role and HQ support are relevant elements in capability development at the subsidiary level. Design/Methodology/Approach: This present study will adopt the multiple case studies approach. That is because a case study research is relevant when addressing issues without known empirical evidences or with little developed prior theory. The key definitions and literature sources directly connected with operations of western subsidiaries in emerging markets, such as China, are well established. A qualitative approach, i.e., case studies of three western subsidiaries, will be adopted. The companies have similar products, they have operations in China, and both of them are mature in their internationalization process. Interviews with key informants, annual reports, press releases, media materials, presentation material to customers and stakeholders, and other company documents will be used as data sources. Findings: Western Subsidiaries in Emerging Market operate in a way substantially different from those in the West. What are the conditions initiating the outsourcing of operations? The paper will discuss and present two relevant propositions guiding that process. Practical Implications: MNCs headquarter should be aware of the potential for capability development at the subsidiary level. This increased awareness could induce consideration in headquarter about the possible ways of encouraging such known capability development and how to leverage these capabilities for better MNC headquarter and/or subsidiary performance. Originality/Value: The paper is expected to contribute on the theme: drivers of subsidiary performance with focus on emerging market. In particular, it will show how some external conditions could promote a capability-building process within subsidiaries.

Keywords: case studies, dynamic capability, emerging market, subsidiary

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Sabina Chytilová, Josef Navrátil

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Emergency management is a discipline of dealing with and avoiding risks. Appropriate emergency management software allows better management of these risks and has a direct influence on reducing potential negative impacts. Although there are several emergency management software products in the Czech Republic, they cover user requirements from the emergency management field only partially. Therefore, the paper focuses on the issues of requirement analysis within development of emergency management software. Analysis of the current state describes the basic features and properties of user requirements for software development as well as basic methods and approaches for gathering these requirements. Then, the paper presents more specific mechanisms for requirement analysis based on chosen software development approach: structured, object-oriented or agile. Based on these experiences it is designed new methodology for requirement analysis. Methodology describes how to map user requirements comprehensively in the field of emergency management and thus reduce misunderstanding between software analyst and emergency manager. Proposed methodology was consulted with department of fire brigade and also has been applied in the requirements analysis for their current emergency management software. The proposed methodology has general character and can be used also in other specific areas during requirement analysis.

Keywords: emergency software, methodology, requirement analysis, stakeholders, use case diagram, user stories

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Authors: Batool Ismaeel, Umair Farooq, Saad Mushtaq

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Construction projects in the oil industry can be very complex, having unknown outcomes and uncertainties that cannot be easily predicted. Each project has its unique risks generated by a number of factors which, if not controlled, will impact the successful completion of the project mainly in terms of schedule, cost, quality, and safety. This paper highlights the historic risks associated with projects in the south and east region of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) collated from the company’s lessons learned database. Starting from Contract Award through to handover of the project to the Asset owner, the gaps in project execution in terms of managing risk will be brought to discussion and where a well-defined systematic approach in project risk management reflecting many claims, change of scope, exceeding budget, delays in engineering phase as well as in the procurement and fabrication of long lead items should be adopted. This study focuses on a proposed feasible approach in risk management for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) level projects including the various stakeholders involved in executing the works from International to local contractors and vendors in KOC. The proposed approach covers the areas categorized into organizational, design, procurement, construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management in which the risks are identified and require management and mitigation. With the effective deployment and implementation of the proposed risk management system and the consideration of it as a vital key in achieving the project’s target, the outcomes will be more predictable in the future, and the risk triggers will be managed and controlled. The correct resources can be allocated on a timely basis for the company for avoiding any unpredictable outcomes during the execution of the project. It is recommended in this paper to apply this risk management approach as an integral part of project management and investigate further in the future, the effectiveness of this proposed system for newly awarded projects and compare the same with those projects of similar budget/complexity that have not applied this approach to risk management.

Keywords: construction, project completion, risk management, uncertainties

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

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Authors: Carly Copolov, Rema Nazha, Sahba C. Delshad, George Bisas

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In New South Wales (NSW), Australia, we speak more than 275 languages and dialects. Interpreters play an indispensable role in our multicultural society by ensuring the people of NSW all enjoy the same opportunities. The NSW Government offers scholarships to enable people who speak in-demand and high priority languages to become eligible to be practicing interpreters. The NSW Interpreter Scholarship Program was launched in January 2019, targeting priority languages from new and emerging, as well as existing language communities. The program offers fully-funded scholarships to study at Technical and Further Education (TAFE), receive National Accreditation Authority for Translators and Interpreters (NAATI) certification, and be mentored and gain employment with the interpreter panel of Multicultural NSW. A Participatory Action Research approach was engaged to challenge the current system for people to become practicing interpreters in NSW. There were over 800 metro Sydney applications and close to 200 regional applications. Three courses were run through TAFE NSW (2 in metro Sydney and 1 in regional NSW). Thirty-nine students graduated from the program in 2019. The first metro Sydney location had 18 graduates complete the course in Assyrian, Burmese, Chaldean, Kurdish-Kurmanji, Nepali, and Tibetan. The second metro Sydney location had 9 graduates complete the course in Tongan, Kirundi, Mongolian and Italian. The regional location had 12 graduates who complete the course from new emerging language communities such as Kurdish-Kurmanji, Burmese, Zomi Chin, Hakha Chin, and Tigrinya. The findings showed that students were very positive about the program as the large majority said they were satisfied with the course content, they felt prepared for the NAATI test at the conclusion of the course, and they would definitely recommend the program to their friends. Also, 18 students from the 2019 cohort signed up to receive further mentoring by experienced interpreters. In 2020 it is anticipated that 3 courses will be run through TAFE NSW (2 in regional NSW and 1 in metro Sydney) to reflect the needs of new emerging language communities settling in regional areas. In conclusion, it has been demonstrated that the NSW Interpreter Scholarship Program improves the supply, quality, and use of language services in NSW, Australia, so that people who speak in-demand and high priority languages are ensured better access to crucial government services

Keywords: interpreting, emerging communities, scholarship program, Sydney

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Authors: A. Falenski, A. Kaesbohrer, M. Filter

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Introduction: Risk assessments can be performed in various ways and in different degrees of complexity. In order to assess risks associated with imported foods additional information needs to be taken into account compared to a risk assessment on regional products. The present review is an overview on currently available best practise approaches and data sources used for food import risk assessments (IRAs). Methods: A literature review has been performed. PubMed was searched for articles about food IRAs published in the years 2004 to 2014 (English and German texts only, search string “(English [la] OR German [la]) (2004:2014 [dp]) import [ti] risk”). Titles and abstracts were screened for import risks in the context of IRAs. The finally selected publications were analysed according to a predefined questionnaire extracting the following information: risk assessment guidelines followed, modelling methods used, data and software applied, existence of an analysis of uncertainty and variability. IRAs cited in these publications were also included in the analysis. Results: The PubMed search resulted in 49 publications, 17 of which contained information about import risks and risk assessments. Within these 19 cross references were identified to be of interest for the present study. These included original articles, reviews and guidelines. At least one of the guidelines of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Codex Alimentarius Commission were referenced in any of the IRAs, either for import of animals or for imports concerning foods, respectively. Interestingly, also a combination of both was used to assess the risk associated with the import of live animals serving as the source of food. Methods ranged from full quantitative IRAs using probabilistic models and dose-response models to qualitative IRA in which decision trees or severity tables were set up using parameter estimations based on expert opinions. Calculations were done using @Risk, R or Excel. Most heterogeneous was the type of data used, ranging from general information on imported goods (food, live animals) to pathogen prevalence in the country of origin. These data were either publicly available in databases or lists (e.g., OIE WAHID and Handystatus II, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, TRACES), accessible on a national level (e.g., herd information) or only open to a small group of people (flight passenger import data at national airport customs office). In the IRAs, an uncertainty analysis has been mentioned in some cases, but calculations have been performed only in a few cases. Conclusion: The current state-of-the-art in the assessment of risks of imported foods is characterized by a great heterogeneity in relation to general methodology and data used. Often information is gathered on a case-by-case basis and reformatted by hand in order to perform the IRA. This analysis therefore illustrates the need for a flexible, modular framework supporting the connection of existing data sources with data analysis and modelling tools. Such an infrastructure could pave the way to IRA workflows applicable ad-hoc, e.g. in case of a crisis situation.

Keywords: import risk assessment, review, tools, food import

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Authors: Anjuman Antil, Anuj Kapoor, Neha Saini

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of insurance in India and the world. The paper also traced the historical basis of life insurance in the world and how it emerged as a major sector in India’s economy. The promotional strategies and distribution channel of top three companies in the Indian insurance sector are also discussed. Design/methodology/approach: The paper examined the secondary data which includes the reports issued by Insurance Regulatory Authority of India, websites of companies, books, and journals relevant to the study. Findings: The paper argued the role and importance of insurance in an emerging economy. The challenges and opportunities of the insurance sector are briefed out. The emerging areas in the insurance sector in terms of promotional strategies and distribution channel are also listed. Implications: The historical evolution can be studied by companies while formulating their strategies. It will help them analyse the insurance sector, how things have changed and how to change with the changing times. Originality/value: This paper gives comprehensive data regarding the background of the insurance sector. Along with historical perspective, marketing and distribution, current and future trends have been discussed.

Keywords: insurance, evolution, life insurance, marketing, distribution channels

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Authors: Donatus Otuiheoma Ohajianya, Augusta Onyekachi Unamba

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This study analyzed risk among poultry farm enterprises in Imo State of Nigeria. Specifically, it examined sources of risks, the major risks associated with poultry farm enterprise, and the risk-reducing strategies among the poultry farm enterprises in the study area. Primary data collected in 2015 with validated questionnaire from 120 proportionately and randomly selected poultry farm enterprises were used for the study. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and W-Statistic that was validated with Pearson Criterion (X2). The results showed that major risk sources affecting poultry farm enterprises were production, marketing, financial and political in that order. The results found a W-Statistic value of 0.789, which was verified by Pearson Criterion to obtain X2-Calculated value of 4.65 which is lower that X2-Critical value of 11.07 at 5% significant level. The risk-reducing strategies were found to be diversification, savings, co-operative marketing, borrowing, and insurance. It was recommended that government and donor agencies should make policies aimed at encouraging poultry farm enterprises adopt the highlighted risk-reducing strategies in risk management to improve their productivity and farm income.

Keywords: risk, measurement, management, poultry farm, Imo State

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Authors: Tabinda Sadiq, Tehmina Ashfaq Qazi, Hoor Shumail

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Recently, the advent of emerging technology has created an emerging generation of restaurant marketing. It explores the aspects that influence customers’ decision-making process in selecting a restaurant after reading food bloggers' reviews online. The motivation behind this research is to investigate the correlation between the credibility of the source and their attitude toward restaurant visits. The researcher collected the data by distributing a survey questionnaire through google forms by employing the Source credibility theory. Non- probability purposive sampling technique was used to collect data. The questionnaire used a predeveloped and validated scale by Ohanian to measure the relationship. Also, the researcher collected data from 250 respondents in order to investigate the influence of food bloggers on Gen Z's decision-making process. SPSS statistical version 26 was used for statistical testing and analyzing the data. The findings of the survey revealed that there is a moderate positive correlation between the variables. So, it can be analyzed that food bloggers do have an impact on Generation Z's decision making process.

Keywords: credibility, decision making, food bloggers, generation z, e-wom

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Authors: Adrian Hang Yue Siu, Matthew Holyland, Sharon Carey, Daniel Steffens, Nabila Ansari, Cherry E. Koh

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Introduction: Peritoneal malignancies are challenging cancers to manage. While cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS and HIPEC) may offer a cure, it’s considered radical and morbid. Pre-emptive identification of deconditioned patients for optimization may mitigate the risks of surgery. However, the difficulty lies in the scarcity of validated predictive tools to identify high-risk patients. In recent times, there has been growing interest in sarcopenia, which can occur as a result of malnutrition and malignancies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the utility of sarcopenia in predicting post-operative outcomes. Methods: A single quaternary-center retrospective study of CRS and HIPEC patients between 2017-2020 was conducted to determine the association between pre-operative sarcopenia and post-operative outcomes. Lumbar CT images were analyzed using Slice-o-matic® to measure sarcopenia. Results : Cohort (n=94) analysis found that 40% had sarcopenia, with a majority being female (53.2%) and a mean age of 55 years. Sarcopenia was statistically associated with decreased weight compared to non-sarcopenia patients, 72.7kg vs. 82.2kg (p=0.014) and shorter overall survival, 1.4 years vs. 2.1 years (p=0.032). Post-operatively, patients with sarcopenia experienced more post-operative complications (p=0.001). Conclusion: Complex procedures often require optimization to prevent complications and improve survival. While patient biomarkers – BMI and weight – are used for optimization, this research advocates for the identification of sarcopenia status for pre-operative planning. Sarcopenia may be an indicator of advanced disease requiring further treatment and is an emerging area of research. Larger studies are required to confirm these findings and to assess the reversibility of sarcopenia after surgery.

Keywords: sarcopaenia, cytoreductive surgery, hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy, surgical oncology

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: Sumohon Matilal, Neveen Abdelrehim

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The purpose of this study is to examine the way households manage the risks of civil war, using the calculative practices of accounting as a lens. As is the case with other social phenomena, accounting serves as a conduit for attributing values and rationales to crisis and in the process makes it visible and calculable. Our focus, in particular, is on the dialogue facilitated by the numerical logic of accounting between the householder and a crisis scenario, such as civil war. In other words, we seek to study how the risk of war is rationalized through household budgets, income and expenditure statements etc. and how such accounting constructs in turn shape attitudes toward earnings and spending in a wartime economy. The existing literature on war and accounting demonstrates how an accounting logic can have potentially destabilising consequences and how it is used to legitimise war. However, very few scholars have looked at the way accounting constructs are used to internalise the effects of war in an average household and the behavioural consequences that arise from such accounting. Relatedly, scholars studying household accounting have mostly focussed on the links between gender and hierarchy in relation to managing the financial affairs. Few have focused on the role of household accounts in a crisis scenario. This study intends to fill this gap. We draw upon Egypt, a country in the middle of civil war since 2011 for our purpose. We intend to carry out 15-20 semi-structured interviews with middle income households in Cairo that maintain some form of accounts to study the following issues: 1. How do people internalise the risks of civil war? What kind of accounting constructs do they use (this may take the form of simple budgets, income-expenditure notes/statements on a periodic basis, spreadsheets etc.) 2. How has civil war affected household expenditure? Are people spending more/less than before? 3. How has civil war affected household income? Are people finding it difficult/easy to survive on the pre-war income? 4. How is such accounting affecting household behaviour towards earnings and expenditure? Are families prioritising expenditure on necessities alone? Are they refraining from indulging in luxuries? Are family members doing two or three jobs to cope with difficult times? Are families increasingly turning toward borrowing? Is credit available? From whom?

Keywords: risk, accounting, war, crisis

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Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-topsis, fuzzy set, flight data monitoring (FDM), flight safety

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Authors: Wajeehah Aayeshah, Joy Higgs

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The term “transcending pedagogies” has been created to refer to teaching and learning strategies that transcend the mode of student enrolment, the needs of different students, and different learning spaces. The value of such pedagogies in the current arena when learning spaces, technologies and preferences are more volatile than ever before, is a key focus of this paper. The paper will examine current and emerging pedagogies that transcend the learning spaces and enrollment modes of on campus, distance, virtual and workplace learning contexts. A further point of interest is how academics in professional and higher education settings interpret and implement pedagogies in the current global conversation space and re-creation of higher education. This study questioned how the notion and practice of transcending pedagogies enables us to re-imagine and reshape university curricula. It explored the nature of teaching and learning spaces and those professional and higher education (current and emerging) pedagogies that can be implemented across these spaces. We set out to identify how transcending pedagogies can assist students in learning to deal with complexity, uncertainty and change in the practice worlds and better appeal to students who are making decisions on where to enrol. The data for this study was collected through in-depth interviews and focus groups with academics and policy makers within academia.

Keywords: Transcending Pedagogies, teaching and learning strategies, learning spaces, pedagogies

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Authors: Jordan Deliversky

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Unlike all conventional forms of migration, migration crisis and migratory processes provide pressure to governments and are being expressed as different phenomenon in relation to nature and forms. The objective of this paper is to present the migration and refugee crisis as revealing numerous challenges faced by authorities responsible for the social and economic stability in Bulgaria as well as those providing conditions for reinforcement of the high level of national security in Bulgaria. The analysis is focused on exploring the multiple origins of factors influencing migration processes in Europe, in the light of the measures provided by the Bulgarian state authorities. The main results show that the society itself is facing the challenge of integrating refugees and migrants, so to be able to comply with the principles and values associated with tolerance to social, religious and cultural differences, and not allowing migrants to become marginalized community. Migration pressure creates a number of risks and threats to the Bulgarian national security. Our country has the capacity and resources to meet these potential threats, as a main factor for minimizing the risks to national security is the improvement of coordination and coherence of actions between various actors serving to the security sector.

Keywords: legislation, migrants, refugees, security, terrorism

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Authors: Ali Bhayani

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The article analyses determinants of the market entry modes used by corporate firms to expand internationally and explore whether higher education institutions uses the same determinants to decide on mode adopted to enter the market. Determinants like transaction costs, location advantage, idiosyncratic capabilities, isomorphic pressure to mimic, psychic distance, uncertainty, risks, the control over academic process, previous internationalisation experience and entry to homogenous markets are considered with regards to universities. A sample consisting of 40+ branch campuses from United Arab Emirates (UAE), host to highest number of branch campuses, is selected to study the determinants of the entry modes adopted. The aim of this article is not to prescribe or offer a solution for the best-available model of market entry that can be adopted by universities but rather to act as a trigger for a critical check up on universities planning to internationalize their offering. Determinants like idiosyncratic capabilities, isomorphic pressure and control over the academic process were found to be most prevalent. However, determinants like transaction cost efficiency, internationalisation experience, psychic distance, uncertainty and risks are not significant factors.

Keywords: higher education, UAE, internationalisation, market entry, international branch campuses

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Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

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Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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Authors: Philippe Gugler

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The aim of this study is to investigate how home country patterns may influence the competitiveness of EMNEs in international markets and more specifically their ability to invest abroad. The study examines the dynamic relationship between home country specific advantage and firms’ competitiveness. Are EMNEs still driven by strong country specific advantages or are EMNEs increasingly relying on their own firm specific competitiveness? EMNEs are not commonly recognized as a ‘homogeneous group’. Therefore, the approaches to these questions need to be specific while still attempting to extract some common evidence. The aim of the study is to elaborate a framework to investigate this issue in a dynamic context of international business’s strategies. The study focuses on two major research questions. The first one relates to the role of the home-base context in the internationalization process of EMNEs and more specifically the home-base assets’ influence on EMNEs competitiveness. Another question is to investigate the interactions among home-base context, recipient country context and EMNEs competitiveness. The evolution of EMNEs’ competitiveness is shaped by the evolution of the home country’s business environment. The nature of the home-based components in EMNEs’ specific advantages has changed over time due to the increased integration of emerging countries in the world market and the inherent changes related to their institutional, structural and regulatory patterns. The home country offers not only inherited assets but also a productive business environment, allowing firms to innovate, be more productive, create unique value for customers and finally, to face international competition successfully. The more sophisticated the home business environment is, the more opportunities there are for firms to developed exclusive and unique competitive assets. The international expansion of EMNEs is a fascinating but challenging issue. Among the numerous questions raised by the involvement of EMNEs in international competition is the evolving role of the home market. The purpose of this study is to examine some of the theoretical ideas and empirical evidence to allow us to deepen our understanding of the role of emerging home countries in the internationalization process of their domestic firms and more specifically in their ability to compete successfully abroad. How much do home specific assets still influence EMNEs’ foreign investment? Which home country assets provide the main competitive drivers to invest and compete abroad? How do EMNEs combine home country assets and host country assets to strengthen their competitive advantages? These questions as well as various others deserve further examination by the scientific community.

Keywords: competitiveness, emerging countries' multinational enterprises, foreign direct investments, international business

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Authors: Gyoutae Park, Geunjun Lyu, Yeonjae Lee, Jaheon Gu, Sanguk Ahn, Hiesik Kim

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In this paper, we propose a system for preventing gas risks through the use of wireless communication modules and intelligent gas safety appliances. Our system configuration consists of an automatic extinguishing system, detectors, a wall-pad, and a microcomputer controlled micom gas meter to monitor gas flow and pressure as well as the occurrence of earthquakes. The automatic fire extinguishing system checks for both combustible gaseous leaks and monitors the environmental temperature, while the detector array measures smoke and CO gas concentrations. Depending on detected conditions, the micom gas meter cuts off an inner valve and generates a warning, the automatic fire-extinguishing system cuts off an external valve and sprays extinguishing materials, or the sensors generate signals and take further action when smoke or CO are detected. Information on intelligent measures taken by the gas safety appliances and sensors are transmitted to the wall-pad, which in turn relays this as real time data to a server that can be monitored via an external network (BcN) connection to a web or mobile application for the management of gas safety. To validate this smart-home gas management system, we field-tested its suitability for use in Korean apartments under several scenarios.

Keywords: gas sensor, leak, gas safety, gas meter, gas risk, wireless communication

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

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Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection

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Authors: Vallence Ngabo Maniragaba

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This study aimed at examining the variations of undernutrition among children below 5 years of age in Uganda. The approach of spatial and spatiotemporal analysis helped in identifying cluster patterns, hot spots and emerging hot spots. Data from the 6 Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys spanning from 1990 to 2016 were used with the main outcome variable being undernutrition among children <5 years of age. All data that were relevant to this study were retrieved from the survey datasets and combined with the 214 shape files for the districts of Uganda to enable spatial and spatiotemporal analysis. Spatial maps with the spatial distribution of the prevalence of undernutrition, both in space and time, were generated using ArcGIS Pro version 2.8. Moran’s I, an index of spatial autocorrelation, rules out doubts of spatial randomness in order to identify spatially clustered patterns of hot or cold spot areas. Furthermore, space-time cubes were generated to establish the trend in undernutrition as well as to mirror its variations over time and across Uganda. Moreover, emerging hot spot analysis was done to help identify the patterns of undernutrition over time. The results indicate a heterogeneous distribution of undernutrition across Uganda and the same variations were also evident over time. Moran’s I index confirmed spatial clustered patterns as opposed to random distributions of undernutrition prevalence. Four hot spot areas, namely; the Karamoja, the Sebei, the West Nile and the Toro regions were significantly evident, most of the central parts of Uganda were identified as cold spot clusters, while most of Western Uganda, the Acholi and the Lango regions had no statistically significant spatial patterns by the year 2016. The spatio-temporal analysis identified the Karamoja and Sebei regions as clusters of persistent, consecutive and intensifying hot spots, West Nile region was identified as a sporadic hot spot area while the Toro region was identified with both sporadic and emerging hotspots. In conclusion, undernutrition is a silent pandemic that needs to be handled with both hands. At 31.2 percent, the prevalence is still very high and unpleasant. The distribution across the country is nonuniform with some areas such as the Karamoja, the West Nile, the Sebei and the Toro regions being epicenters of undernutrition in Uganda. Over time, the same areas have experienced and exhibited high undernutrition prevalence. Policymakers, as well as the implementers, should bear in mind the spatial variations across the country and prioritize hot spot areas in order to have efficient, timely and region-specific interventions.

Keywords: undernutrition, spatial autocorrelation, hotspots analysis, geographically weighted regressions, emerging hotspots analysis, under-fives, Uganda

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

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Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects

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Authors: Haruna Shola Adeosun, Lekan M. Togunwa, Ajoke F. Adebiyi

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This paper examines the impact of social media on Nigerian Youths particularly in Nigeria. This study reviewed secondary sources data. The research adopted survey method which involves the use of questionnaire that was administered to gather primary data analysis and presentation were done with the use of tables, figures, percentages and chi-square were used to test the hypotheses formulated. The study revealed that social media consumers, especially Facebook are prone to the benefits or risks aspect of its contents. At this expense, what user derived, seeks, sought and gains from such media depend on the motive they are being used for. The study also revealed that users have the tendency to be positively influenced through heavy or over exposure to numerous contents that are damaging and harmful. This means that social media usage may be considered as good or bad. As its contents may or may not subject consumers to vulnerable use depending on what is saved from it. The study recommends that the use of Facebook should be subjected to gate keeping and monitoring in order to control the activities of users that embrace depression, bullying, sexing and sexual harassment as a way of life. Parents should close watch on their children and caution them towards cultivating the habit of over exposure to social sites so at to protect them form risks social media poses.

Keywords: evaluation, impact, soocial media, nigerian youths

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Authors: Rahmi Kopar

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Legitimate expectations principle is considered one of the most dominant elements of the Fair and Equitable Treatment Standard which is today’s most relied upon treaty standard. Since its utilization by arbitral tribunals is relatively new, the contours of the legitimate expectations concept under investment treaty law have not been precisely defined yet. There are various fragmented views arising both from arbitral tribunals and scholarly writings with respect to its limits and use even though the principle is ‘firmly rooted in arbitral practice.’ International energy investments, due to their characteristics, are more prone to certain types of risks, especially the political risks. Thus, there are several mechanisms to protect an energy investment against those risks. Stabilisation is one of these investment protection methods. Stability provisions can be found under domestic legislations, as a contractual clause, or as a separate legal stability agreement. This paper will start by examining the roots of the contentious concept of legitimate expectations with reference to its application in domestic legal systems from where the doctrine under investment treaty law context was transplanted. Then the paper will turn to the investment treaty law and analyse the main contours of the doctrine as understood and applied by arbitral tribunals. 'What gives rise to the investor’s legitimate expectations?' question is answered mainly by three categories of sources: the general legal framework prevalent in a host state, the representations made by the officials or organs of a host state, and the contractual commitments. However, there is no unanimity among the arbitral tribunals and the scholars with respect to the form these sources should take. At this point, the study will discuss the sources of a stability provision and the effect of these stability provisions found in various legal sources in creating a legitimate expectation for the investor. The main questions to be discussed in this paper are as follows: a) Do the stability provisions found under different legal sources create a legitimate expectation on the investor side? b) If yes, what levels of legitimate expectations do they create? These questions will be answered mainly by reference to investment treaty jurisprudence.

Keywords: fair and equitable treatment standard, international energy investments, investment protection, legitimate expectations, stabilization

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Authors: Armel Zacharie Ekoa Bessa, Annick Kwewouo Janpou

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Sediments collected along the beaches of the Atlantic Ocean in Africa were analyzed by geochemical proxies such as the ICP-MS technique to determine their heavy metal contamination and related ecological risks. Several metals were selected and show a decreasing trend: Fe > Mn > Ni > Cu > Co > Zn > Cr > Cd. Several pollution indices have been calculated, including the enrichment factor (EF), whose values are generally higher than 1. 5; the geo-accumulation index (I-geo), with values of some elements (Co, Ni and Cu) in the sediments of the study area being higher than 0, and other metals (Zn, Cr, Fe and Mn) being lower than 0; the contamination factor (CF), where the values of all the selected elements are between 1 and 3; and the pollution load index (PLI), where the values in almost all the study sites are higher than 1. These results show moderate contamination of the investigated sediments with heavy metals. The potential ecological risk assessment (Eri and RI) suggests that this part of the African coast is a low to a slight risk area. Statistical analyses indicate that heavy metals have shown fairly similar trends with anthropogenic and natural sources. This study shows that this coastal area is not highly concentrated in heavy metals and reveals that the Atlantic coast of Africa would be moderately polluted by the metals studied, with a low to moderate ecological risk.

Keywords: heavy metals, pollution, atlantic ocean, sediments

Procedia PDF Downloads 55