Search results for: emerging risks

Authors: Petronella Jonck, Martin Chanza, Anna-Marie Pelser

Abstract:

Ascribed to the global pandemic most higher education institutions responded by relocating content presented by means of contact sessions to an online platform giving rise to digital pedagogy. The purpose of the research reported on was to explore emerging challenges linked to digital pedagogy from a practitioner stance. Digital pedagogy has emerged as a powerful tool to compliment traditional methods. However, stumbling blocks should be identified and addressed for future utilization. A qualitative research design was implemented by means of a semi-structured interview schedule distributed to practitioners during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results revealed that institutional type influenced the implementation of digital pedagogy. Other challenges relate to the increased cost of education, decreased access, limited knowledge about digital pedagogy, behavioral intent to adopt a multi-modal approach, lack of ICT infrastructure to mention a few. Higher education institutions should address challenges towards the optimal use of digital pedagogy in future.

Keywords: COVID-19, digital pedagogy, higher education institutions, information communication technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Alimshan Faizulayev, Eralp Bektas, Abdul Ghafar Ismail, Bezhan Rustamov

Abstract:

This paper performs empirical analysis on determinants of profitability in Islamic and Conventional Banks. The main focus of this study is to evaluate and measure of financial performance of Islamic banking firms operating in Egypt, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Turkey, UAE in contrast to Conventional ones in those countries. To evaluate empirically performance of the banks, various financial ratios are employed. We measure performance in terms of liquidity, profitability, solvency, and efficiency. In this work, t-test, F-test, and OLS analysis are used to make hypothesis tests. Our findings reveal that there are similarities and differences in profitability determinants of Islamic and Conventional banking firms. The cost to revenue ratio has inverse relationship with profitability indicators in both banking systems. However, there are differences in financial performances between Conventional Banks and Islamic banks which are found in overall picture of all banks in terms of net income margin.

Keywords: Islamic banking, conventional banking, GDP growth, emerging market economies

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Jiajia Peng, Jianqing Qiu, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

Abstract:

Background: Insufficient sleep has been focused on as a public health epidemic. However, a comprehensive analysis of disease trajectory associated with unhealthy sleep habits is still unclear currently. Objective: This study sought to comprehensively clarify the disease's trajectory in relation to the overall poor sleep pattern and unhealthy sleep behaviors separately. Methods: 410,682 participants with available information on sleep behaviors were collected from the UK Biobank at the baseline visit (2006-2010). These participants were classified as having high- and low risk of each sleep behavior and were followed from 2006 to 2020 to identify the increased risks of diseases. We used Cox regression to estimate the associations of high-risk sleep behaviors with the elevated risks of diseases, and further established diseases trajectory using significant diseases. The low-risk unhealthy sleep behaviors were defined as the reference. Thereafter, we also examined the trajectory of diseases linked with the overall poor sleep pattern by combining all of these unhealthy sleep behaviors. To visualize the disease's trajectory, network analysis was used for presenting these trajectories. Results: During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we noted 12 medical conditions in relation to unhealthy sleep behaviors and the overall poor sleep pattern among 410,682 participants with a median age of 58.0 years. The majority of participants had unhealthy sleep behaviors; in particular, 75.62% with frequent sleeplessness, and 72.12% had abnormal sleep durations. Besides, a total of 16,032 individuals with an overall poor sleep pattern were identified. In general, three major disease clusters were associated with overall poor sleep status and unhealthy sleep behaviors according to the disease trajectory and network analysis, mainly in the digestive, musculoskeletal and connective tissue, and cardiometabolic systems. Of note, two circularity disease pairs (I25→I20 and I48→I50) showed the highest risks following these unhealthy sleep habits. Additionally, significant differences in disease trajectories were observed in relation to sex and sleep medication among individuals with poor sleep status. Conclusions: We identified the major disease clusters and high-risk diseases following participants with overall poor sleep health and unhealthy sleep behaviors, respectively. It may suggest the need to investigate the potential interventions targeting these key pathways.

Keywords: sleep, poor sleep, unhealthy sleep behaviors, disease trajectory, UK Biobank

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Sirapop Nuannimnoi, Hojjat Baghban, Ching-Yao Huang

Abstract:

Over the past decade, with the fast development of blockchain technology since the birth of Bitcoin, there has been a massive increase in the usage of Cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are not seen as an investment opportunity due to the market’s erratic behavior and high price volatility. With the recent success of deep reinforcement learning (DRL), portfolio management can be modeled and automated. In this paper, we propose a novel DRL-based multi-agent system to automatically make proper trading decisions on multiple cryptocurrencies and gain profits in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. We also extend this multi-agent system with horizontal federated transfer learning for better adapting to the inclusion of new cryptocurrencies in our portfolio; therefore, we can, through the concept of diversification, maximize our profits and minimize the trading risks. Experimental results through multiple simulation scenarios reveal that this proposed algorithmic trading system can offer three promising key advantages over other systems, including maximized profits, minimized risks, and adaptability.

Keywords: cryptocurrency portfolio management, algorithmic trading, federated learning, multi-agent reinforcement learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Huayun Zhai, Quan Hu, Wei-Chih Chiang, Jianjun Du

Abstract:

By applying experimental methodology in the framework of the behavior-perception theory, this paper studies the relationship between information quality of corporates’ social responsibility (CSR) and individual investors’ risk perception, intermediated with individual investors’ perception on CSR. The findings are as follows: In general, the information quality of CSR significantly influences individual investors’ perception on investment risks. Furthermore, certification on CSR can help reinforce such perceptions. The higher the reporting quality of CSR is, accompanied by the certification by an independent third party, the more likely individual investors recognize the responsibilities. The research also found that the perception on CSR not only plays a role of intermediation between information quality about CSR and investors’ perception on investment risk but also intermediates the certification of CSR reports and individual investors’ judgment on investment risks. The main contributions of the research are in two folds. The first is that it supplements the research on CSR from the perspective of investors’ perceptions. The second is that the research provides theoretical and experimental evidence for enterprises to implement and improve reports on their social responsibilities.

Keywords: information quality, corporate social responsibility, report certification, individual investors’ perception on risk, perception of corporate social responsibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

Abstract:

Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Rameshwar Dahal, S. Ping Ho

Abstract:

Although the demand for infrastructure development forms a promising market opportunity for international firms, the dominance of informal institutions over formal ones, investors are facing extraordinary institutional challenges when investing in emerging Least Developed Countries (LDCs). We believe that, in emerging LDCs, the project performance heavily depends on how well the entrants respond to the challenges exerted by the host institutional environments. Which primarily depends on how much they learn about the host institution and what strategy they apply in response. In Nepal, almost all international or global infrastructure projects are financed by international financers, so the procurement process of the infrastructure projects financed by foreign agencies is guided by the policies and regulations of the financer. Because of limited resources and the financers’ demand, contractors and consults are procured internationally. Moreover, the resources, including but not limited to construction material, manpower, and equipment, also need to be imported. Therefore, the involvement of international companies as an entrant in global infrastructure projects of LDCs is obvious. In a global project (GP), participants from different geographical and institutional environments hold different beliefs and have disparate interests. Therefore, the entrants face the challenges exerted by the host institutional environments. The entrants must either adapt to the institutions prevailing in the environment or resist the institutional pressures. It is hypothesized that, in emerging LDCs, the project performance heavily depends on how much the entrants learn about the host institutional knowledge and how well they respond to the institutional environments. While it is impossible to generalize the phenomenon and contextual conditions because of their vast diversity, this study has answered why and how participants’ level of institutional knowledge impacts the project's implementation performance. To draw that conclusion, firstly, we explored two typical GPs from Nepal. For this study, the data were collected by conducting interviews and examining the secondary data, such as the project reports published by the financers, project data provided by interviewees, and news reports. In an event analysis, firstly, we identify the sources, causes, or nature of the institutional challenges; secondly, we analyze the entrant’s responses to the exerted challenges and evaluate the impacts of the responses on the overall project performance. In this study, at first, the events occurred during the project implementation process have a causal link with the local institutions that demand the entrants’ response are extracted. Secondly, each event is scrutinized as the critical success factor of the case project. Finally, it is crucially examined whether and what institutional knowledge in these events played a critical role in project success or failure. The results also provide insights into the crucial institutional knowledge in LDCs and the subsequent strategy implications for undertaking projects in LDCs.

Keywords: emerging countries, LDC, project management, project performance, institutional knowledge, institutional theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Chitra Rajagopal, Indra Deo Kumar, Ruchi Joshi, Binoy Bhargavan

Abstract:

Role of fighter planes in modern network centric military warfare scenarios has changed significantly in the recent past. New generation fighter planes have multirole capability of engaging both air and ground targets with high precision. Multirole aircraft undertakes missions such as Air to Air combat, Air defense, Air to Surface role (including Air interdiction, Close air support, Maritime attack, Suppression and Destruction of enemy air defense), Reconnaissance, Electronic warfare missions, etc. Designers have primarily focused on development of technologies to enhance the combat performance of the fighter planes and very little attention is given to human factor aspects of technologies. Unique physical and psychological challenges are imposed on the pilots to meet operational requirements during these missions. Newly evolved technologies have enhanced aircraft performance in terms of its speed, firepower, stealth, electronic warfare, situational awareness, and vulnerability reduction capabilities. This paper highlights the impact of emerging technologies on human factors for various military operations and missions. Technologies such as ‘cooperative knowledge-based systems’ to aid pilot’s decision making in military conflict scenarios as well as simulation technologies to enhance human performance is also studied as a part of research work. Current and emerging pilot protection technologies and systems which form part of the integrated life support systems in new generation fighter planes is discussed. System safety analysis application to quantify the human reliability in military operations is also studied.

Keywords: combat effectiveness, emerging technologies, human factors, systems safety analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Marit D. Murry, Amy K. Marks

Abstract:

The transition to college is a critical period that affords abundant opportunities for growth in conjunction with novel challenges for emerging adults. During this time, emerging adults are garnering experiences and acquiring hosts of new information that they are required to synthesize and use to inform life-shaping decisions. This stage is characterized by instability and exploration, which necessitates a diverse set of coping skills to successfully navigate and positively adapt to their evolving environment. However, important sociocultural factors result in differences that occur developmentally for minority emerging adults (i.e., emerging adults with an identity that has been or is marginalized). While the transition to college holds vast potential, not all are afforded the same chances, and many individuals enter into this stage at varying degrees of readiness. Understanding the nuance and diversity of student preparedness for college and contextualizing these factors will better equip systems to support incoming students. Emerging adulthood for ethnic, racial minority students presents itself as an opportunity for growth and resiliency in the face of systemic adversity. Ethnic, racial identity (ERI) is defined as an identity that develops as a function of one’s ethnic-racial group membership. Research continues to demonstrate ERI as a resilience factor that promotes positive adjustment in young adulthood. Adaptive coping responses (e.g., engaging in help-seeking behavior, drawing on personal and community resources) have been identified as possible mechanisms through which ERI buffers youth against stressful life events, including discrimination. Additionally, trait mindfulness has been identified as a significant predictor of general psychological health, and mindfulness practice has been shown to be a self-regulatory strategy that promotes healthy stress responses and adaptive coping strategy selection. The current study employed a person-centered approach to explore emerging patterns across ethnic identity development and psychological well-being criterion variables among college freshmen. Data from 283 incoming college freshmen at Northeastern University were analyzed. The Brief COPE Acceptance and Emotional Support scales, the Five Factor Mindfulness Questionnaire, and MIEM Exploration and Affirmation measures were used to inform the cluster profiles. The TwoStep auto-clustering algorithm revealed an optimal three-cluster solution (BIC = 848.49), which classified 92.6% (n = 262) of participants in the sample into one of the three clusters. The clusters were characterized as ‘Mixed Adjustment’, ‘Lowest Adjustment’, and ‘Moderate Adjustment.’ Cluster composition varied significantly by ethnicity X² (2, N = 262) = 7.74 (p = .021) and gender X² (2, N = 259) = 10.40 (p = .034). The ‘Lowest Adjustment’ cluster contained the highest proportion of students of color, 41% (n = 32), and male-identifying students, 44.2% (n = 34). Follow-up analyses showed higher ERI exploration in ‘Moderate Adjustment’ cluster members, also reported higher levels of psychological distress, with significantly elevated depression scores (p = .011), psychological diagnoses of depression (p = .013), anxiety (p = .005) and psychiatric disorders (p = .025). Supporting prior research, students engaging with identity exploration processes often endure more psychological distress. These results indicate that students undergoing identity development may require more socialization and different services beyond normal strategies.

Keywords: adjustment, coping, college, emerging adulthood, ethnic-racial identity, psychological well-being, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Ying Zhu

Abstract:

Recent years have witnessed a boom of foreign investments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Foreign investments provide critical capital for AI development but also trigger national security concerns of host states. A notable example is an increasing number of cases in which the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has denied Chinese acquisitions of US technology companies on national security grounds. On July 19, 2018, the Congress has reached a deal on the final draft of a new provision to strengthen CFIUS’s authority to review overseas transactions involving sensitive US technology. The question is: how to reconcile the emerging tension between, on the one hand, foreign AI investors’ expectations of a predictable investment environment, and on the other hand, host states’ regulatory power on national security? This paper provides a methodology to reconcile this tension under international investment law. Based on an examination, the national security exception clauses in international investment treaties and the application of national security justification in investor-state arbitration jurisprudence, the paper argues that a traditional interpretation of the national security exception, based on the necessity concept in customary international law, fails to take into account new risks faced by countries, including security concerns over strategic industries such as AI. To overcome this shortage, the paper proposes to incorporate an integrated national security clause in international investment treaties, which includes a two-tier test: a ‘self-judging’ test in the pre-establishment period and a ‘proportionality’ test in the post-establishment period. At the end, the paper drafts a model national security clause for future treaty-drafting practice.

Keywords: foreign investment, artificial intelligence, international investment law, national security exception

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Barry Aifesehi Aiworo, Henry Oriakhi

Abstract:

This paper, examines the analysis of access pattern to school and travel risks among school children in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. The risk includes accident, molestation (sexually) and kidnapping. The objective of this paper are to examine the various means (modes) of transport to school; determine the type and incidences of risk experienced by school children in the study area; examine the risk incidences and ages of school children in the study area. Hypothesis which states that the types of risks encountered by school children are independent of means of transport was tested using the chi-square test (X2). A sampling ratio of twelve percent (12%) was taken from 396 schools in Benin City. By implication, 49 schools were randomly selected in Benin City for this research. A total of 42,053 students in the 49 schools constitute the sample frame for the research. Two percent (2%), 841 students were taken as the sample size. The use of stratified sampling method was applied by stratifying the study area (Benin City) into local governments- Egor, Ikpoba-Okha and Oredo. Thereafter, the lists of schools in the various local governments were obtained from the Ministry of Education before the schools for research were randomly chosen from each local government area. The analysis revealed that 6.7% of the total students interviewed have been involved in road accidents. 1.04% of the total respondents said at one time or the other that they have been kidnapped. Finally, the research found that travel is comparatively safe and believes this may be partly attributable to safer route to schools and school children being more familiar with the school journey. The research indicates that children aged between eleven and fifteen are most at risk of hit or knocked down on Benin City’s roads. These findings may help in planning and targeting road safety initiative (education, campaigns) in Benin City.

Keywords: accident, molestation (sexually), kidnapping, pedophile, pedestrian

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Hammadi Larbi

Abstract:

The treatment of wastewater in sewage plants usually results in the formation of a large amount of sludge. These appear at the outlet of the treatment plant as a viscous fluid loaded with a high concentration of dry matter. This sludge production presents environmental, ecological, and economic risks. That is why it is necessary to find many solutions for minimizing these risks. In the present article, the effect of hydrogen peroxide, thermal treatment, and quicklime on the characteristics of the activated sludge produced in urban wastewater plant were evaluated in order to avoid any risk in the plants. The study shows increasing of the dose of H2O2 from 0 to 0.4 g causes an increase in the solubilization rate of COD from 12% to 45% and a reduction in the organic matter content of sludge (VM/SM) from 74% to 36% . The results also show that the optimum efficiency of the heat treatment corresponds to a temperature of 80 ° C for a treatment time of 40 min is 47% and 51.82% for a temperature equal to 100 ° C and 76.30 % for a temperature of 120 ° C, and 79.38% for a temperature of 140 ° C. The treatment of sludge by quicklime gives the optimum efficiency of 70.62 %. It was shown the increasing of the temperature from 80°C to 140°C, the pH of sludge was increased from 7.12 to 9.59. The obtained results showed that with increasing the dose of quicklime from 0 g/l to 1g/l in activated sludge led to an increase of their pH from 7.12 to 12.06. The study shows the increasing the dose of quicklime from 0 g/l to 1g/l causes also an increase in the solubilization of COD from 0% to 70.62 %

Keywords: activated sludge, hydrogen peroxide, thermal treatment, quicklime

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Rassima Salimbayeva, Kaliash Stamkulova, Gulparshyn Satbayeva

Abstract:

In order to adapt projects to promote Sustainable Development Goal 11. «Ensuring openness, security, resilience and environmental sustainability of cities and human settlements», presented in the UN Concept, it is necessary to assess the environmental sustainability of cities. From the analysis of the problems of sustainable development of cities in Kazakhstan, it can be seen that the industrial past created a typical range of problems -transport, housing, environment, and, importantly, image. Currently, the issue of air pollution in cities whose economies are dominated by one industry or company should be studied in more detail at the level of projects. In this research, using ecological, economic, and social indicators of five single-industry towns of the Karaganda region of Kazakhstan, an assessment of the risks of the negative impact of environmental factors on the health of the population was carried out, including by paying special attention to air quality. In order to investigate the relationship between the structure of industry, environmental pressure, and environmental sustainability of resource-oriented cities, an analysis of the main components was carried out to measure the structure of industry, environmental stress, and environmental sustainability of single-industry towns. It has been established that in resource-based cities, economic growth mainly depends on the development of one main industry, which primarily depends on local natural resources. Empirical results show that the regional structure of industry has a significant negative impact on the environmental sustainability of cities, in particular on the health of the population living in them. The paper complements the study of the theory of urban sustainability and clarifies the relationship between industrial structure and environmental pressure on health safety and environmental sustainability of cities and towns, which is crucial for further promoting the "green" development of single-industry towns based on natural resources.

Keywords: public health risks, urban sustainability, suspended solids, single-industry towns, atmospheric air, environmental pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 14

Authors: Henry Pariaman, Iwa Garniwa, Isti Surjandari, Bambang Sugiarto

Abstract:

Availability of a complex system of thermal power plant is strongly influenced by the reliability of spare parts and maintenance management policies. A reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) technique is an established method of analysis and is the main reference for maintenance planning. This method considers the consequences of failure in its implementation, but does not deal with further risk of down time that associated with failures, loss of production or high maintenance costs. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) technique provides support strategies to minimize the risks posed by the failure to obtain maintenance task considering cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, condition-based maintenance (CBM) focuses on monitoring the application of the conditions that allow the planning and scheduling of maintenance or other action should be taken to avoid the risk of failure prior to the time-based maintenance. Implementation of RCM, RBM, CBM alone or combined RCM and RBM or RCM and CBM is a maintenance technique used in thermal power plants. Implementation of these three techniques in an integrated maintenance will increase the availability of thermal power plants compared to the use of maintenance techniques individually or in combination of two techniques. This study uses the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance in an integrated manner to increase the availability of thermal power plants. The method generates MPI (Priority Maintenance Index) is RPN (Risk Priority Number) are multiplied by RI (Risk Index) and FDT (Failure Defense Task) which can generate the task of monitoring and assessment of conditions other than maintenance tasks. Both MPI and FDT obtained from development of functional tree, failure mode effects analysis, fault-tree analysis, and risk analysis (risk assessment and risk evaluation) were then used to develop and implement a plan and schedule maintenance, monitoring and assessment of the condition and ultimately perform availability analysis. The results of this study indicate that the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance methods, in an integrated manner can increase the availability of thermal power plants.

Keywords: integrated maintenance techniques, availability, thermal power plant, MPI, FDT

Procedia PDF Downloads 794

Authors: O. A. Adeyemi, M. O. Idris, W. A. Oke, O. T. Olorode, S. O. Alayande, A. E. Adeoye

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the process of capability building at subsidiary level and the challenges to such process. The relevance of external factors for capability development, have not been explicitly addressed in empirical studies. Though, internal factors, acting as enablers, have been more extensively studied. With reference to external factors, subsidiaries are actively influenced by specific characteristics of the host country, implying a need to become fully immersed in local culture and practices. Specifically, in MNCs, there has been a widespread trend in management practice to increase subsidiary autonomy,  with subsidiary managers being encouraged to act entrepreneurially, and to take advantage of host country specificity. As such, it could be proposed that: P1: The degree at which subsidiary management is connected to the host country, will positively influence the capability development process. Dynamic capabilities reside to a large measure with the subsidiary management team, but are impacted by the organizational processes, systems and structures that the MNC headquarter has designed to manage its business. At the subsidiary level, the weight of the subsidiary in the network, its initiative-taking and its profile building increase the supportive attention of the HQs and are relevant to the success of the process of capability building. Therefore, our second proposition is that: P2: Subsidiary role and HQ support are relevant elements in capability development at the subsidiary level. Design/Methodology/Approach: This present study will adopt the multiple case studies approach. That is because a case study research is relevant when addressing issues without known empirical evidences or with little developed prior theory. The key definitions and literature sources directly connected with operations of western subsidiaries in emerging markets, such as China, are well established. A qualitative approach, i.e., case studies of three western subsidiaries, will be adopted. The companies have similar products, they have operations in China, and both of them are mature in their internationalization process. Interviews with key informants, annual reports, press releases, media materials, presentation material to customers and stakeholders, and other company documents will be used as data sources. Findings: Western Subsidiaries in Emerging Market operate in a way substantially different from those in the West. What are the conditions initiating the outsourcing of operations? The paper will discuss and present two relevant propositions guiding that process. Practical Implications: MNCs headquarter should be aware of the potential for capability development at the subsidiary level. This increased awareness could induce consideration in headquarter about the possible ways of encouraging such known capability development and how to leverage these capabilities for better MNC headquarter and/or subsidiary performance. Originality/Value: The paper is expected to contribute on the theme: drivers of subsidiary performance with focus on emerging market. In particular, it will show how some external conditions could promote a capability-building process within subsidiaries.

Keywords: case studies, dynamic capability, emerging market, subsidiary

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

Abstract:

It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: cross ABC method, customs supply chain, risk, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Tebogo Sethibe, Jabulile Mabuza

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic has been commonly referred to as a ‘black swan event’; it has changed the world, from how people live, learn, work and socialise. It is believed that the pandemic has fast-tracked the adoption of technology in many organisations to ensure business continuity and business sustainability; broadly said, the pandemic has fast-tracked digital transformation (DT) in different organisations. This paper aims to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on DT in organisations in South Africa by focusing on the changes in IT capabilities in the DT framework. The research design is qualitative. The data collection was through semi-structured interviews with information communication technology (ICT) leaders representing different organisations in South Africa. The data were analysed using the thematic analysis process. The results from the study show that, in terms of ICT in the organisation, the pandemic had a direct and positive impact on ICT strategy and ICT operations. In terms of IT capability transformation, the pandemic resulted in the optimisation and expansion of existing IT capabilities in the organisation and the building of new IT capabilities to meet emerging business needs. In terms of the focus of activities during the pandemic, there seems to be a split in organisations between the primary focus being on ‘digital IT’ or ‘traditional IT’. Overall, the findings of the study show that the pandemic had a positive and significant impact on DT in organisations. However, a definitive conclusion on this would require expanding the scope of the research to all the components of a comprehensive DT framework. This study is significant because it is one of the first studies to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on organisations, on ICT in the organisation, on IT capability transformation and, to a greater extent, DT. The findings from the study show that in response to the pandemic, there is a need for: (i) agility in organisations; (ii) organisations to execute on their existing strategy; (iii) the future-proofing of IT capabilities; (iv) the adoption of a hybrid working model; and for (v) organisations to take risks and embrace new ideas.

Keywords: digital transformation, COVID-19, bimodal-IT, digital transformation framework

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Riyadh Alsultani, Ali Majdi

Abstract:

It is necessary to develop a design methodology that includes the possibility of seismic events occurring in a region, the vulnerability of the civil hydraulic structure, and the effects of the occurrence hazard on society, environment, and economy in order to evaluate the flood and earthquake risks of coastal bridge networks. This paper presents a design approach for the assessment of the risk and sustainability of coastal bridge networks under time-variant flood-earthquake conditions. The social, environmental, and economic indicators of the network are used to measure its sustainability. These consist of anticipated loss, downtime, energy waste, and carbon dioxide emissions. The design process takes into account the possibility of happening in a set of flood and earthquake scenarios that represent the local seismic activity. Based on the performance of each bridge as determined by fragility assessments, network linkages are measured. The network's connections and bridges' damage statuses after an earthquake scenario determine the network's sustainability and danger. The sustainability measures' temporal volatility and the danger of structural degradation are both highlighted. The method is shown using a transportation network in Baghdad, Iraq.

Keywords: sustainability, Coastal bridge networks, flood-earthquake risk, structural design

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

Abstract:

High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

Abstract:

The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 524

Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Sabina Chytilová, Josef Navrátil

Abstract:

Emergency management is a discipline of dealing with and avoiding risks. Appropriate emergency management software allows better management of these risks and has a direct influence on reducing potential negative impacts. Although there are several emergency management software products in the Czech Republic, they cover user requirements from the emergency management field only partially. Therefore, the paper focuses on the issues of requirement analysis within development of emergency management software. Analysis of the current state describes the basic features and properties of user requirements for software development as well as basic methods and approaches for gathering these requirements. Then, the paper presents more specific mechanisms for requirement analysis based on chosen software development approach: structured, object-oriented or agile. Based on these experiences it is designed new methodology for requirement analysis. Methodology describes how to map user requirements comprehensively in the field of emergency management and thus reduce misunderstanding between software analyst and emergency manager. Proposed methodology was consulted with department of fire brigade and also has been applied in the requirements analysis for their current emergency management software. The proposed methodology has general character and can be used also in other specific areas during requirement analysis.

Keywords: emergency software, methodology, requirement analysis, stakeholders, use case diagram, user stories

Procedia PDF Downloads 540

Authors: Carly Copolov, Rema Nazha, Sahba C. Delshad, George Bisas

Abstract:

In New South Wales (NSW), Australia, we speak more than 275 languages and dialects. Interpreters play an indispensable role in our multicultural society by ensuring the people of NSW all enjoy the same opportunities. The NSW Government offers scholarships to enable people who speak in-demand and high priority languages to become eligible to be practicing interpreters. The NSW Interpreter Scholarship Program was launched in January 2019, targeting priority languages from new and emerging, as well as existing language communities. The program offers fully-funded scholarships to study at Technical and Further Education (TAFE), receive National Accreditation Authority for Translators and Interpreters (NAATI) certification, and be mentored and gain employment with the interpreter panel of Multicultural NSW. A Participatory Action Research approach was engaged to challenge the current system for people to become practicing interpreters in NSW. There were over 800 metro Sydney applications and close to 200 regional applications. Three courses were run through TAFE NSW (2 in metro Sydney and 1 in regional NSW). Thirty-nine students graduated from the program in 2019. The first metro Sydney location had 18 graduates complete the course in Assyrian, Burmese, Chaldean, Kurdish-Kurmanji, Nepali, and Tibetan. The second metro Sydney location had 9 graduates complete the course in Tongan, Kirundi, Mongolian and Italian. The regional location had 12 graduates who complete the course from new emerging language communities such as Kurdish-Kurmanji, Burmese, Zomi Chin, Hakha Chin, and Tigrinya. The findings showed that students were very positive about the program as the large majority said they were satisfied with the course content, they felt prepared for the NAATI test at the conclusion of the course, and they would definitely recommend the program to their friends. Also, 18 students from the 2019 cohort signed up to receive further mentoring by experienced interpreters. In 2020 it is anticipated that 3 courses will be run through TAFE NSW (2 in regional NSW and 1 in metro Sydney) to reflect the needs of new emerging language communities settling in regional areas. In conclusion, it has been demonstrated that the NSW Interpreter Scholarship Program improves the supply, quality, and use of language services in NSW, Australia, so that people who speak in-demand and high priority languages are ensured better access to crucial government services

Keywords: interpreting, emerging communities, scholarship program, Sydney

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Batool Ismaeel, Umair Farooq, Saad Mushtaq

Abstract:

Construction projects in the oil industry can be very complex, having unknown outcomes and uncertainties that cannot be easily predicted. Each project has its unique risks generated by a number of factors which, if not controlled, will impact the successful completion of the project mainly in terms of schedule, cost, quality, and safety. This paper highlights the historic risks associated with projects in the south and east region of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) collated from the company’s lessons learned database. Starting from Contract Award through to handover of the project to the Asset owner, the gaps in project execution in terms of managing risk will be brought to discussion and where a well-defined systematic approach in project risk management reflecting many claims, change of scope, exceeding budget, delays in engineering phase as well as in the procurement and fabrication of long lead items should be adopted. This study focuses on a proposed feasible approach in risk management for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) level projects including the various stakeholders involved in executing the works from International to local contractors and vendors in KOC. The proposed approach covers the areas categorized into organizational, design, procurement, construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management in which the risks are identified and require management and mitigation. With the effective deployment and implementation of the proposed risk management system and the consideration of it as a vital key in achieving the project’s target, the outcomes will be more predictable in the future, and the risk triggers will be managed and controlled. The correct resources can be allocated on a timely basis for the company for avoiding any unpredictable outcomes during the execution of the project. It is recommended in this paper to apply this risk management approach as an integral part of project management and investigate further in the future, the effectiveness of this proposed system for newly awarded projects and compare the same with those projects of similar budget/complexity that have not applied this approach to risk management.

Keywords: construction, project completion, risk management, uncertainties

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Anjuman Antil, Anuj Kapoor, Neha Saini

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of insurance in India and the world. The paper also traced the historical basis of life insurance in the world and how it emerged as a major sector in India’s economy. The promotional strategies and distribution channel of top three companies in the Indian insurance sector are also discussed. Design/methodology/approach: The paper examined the secondary data which includes the reports issued by Insurance Regulatory Authority of India, websites of companies, books, and journals relevant to the study. Findings: The paper argued the role and importance of insurance in an emerging economy. The challenges and opportunities of the insurance sector are briefed out. The emerging areas in the insurance sector in terms of promotional strategies and distribution channel are also listed. Implications: The historical evolution can be studied by companies while formulating their strategies. It will help them analyse the insurance sector, how things have changed and how to change with the changing times. Originality/value: This paper gives comprehensive data regarding the background of the insurance sector. Along with historical perspective, marketing and distribution, current and future trends have been discussed.

Keywords: insurance, evolution, life insurance, marketing, distribution channels

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

Abstract:

Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 594

Authors: Tabinda Sadiq, Tehmina Ashfaq Qazi, Hoor Shumail

Abstract:

Recently, the advent of emerging technology has created an emerging generation of restaurant marketing. It explores the aspects that influence customers’ decision-making process in selecting a restaurant after reading food bloggers' reviews online. The motivation behind this research is to investigate the correlation between the credibility of the source and their attitude toward restaurant visits. The researcher collected the data by distributing a survey questionnaire through google forms by employing the Source credibility theory. Non- probability purposive sampling technique was used to collect data. The questionnaire used a predeveloped and validated scale by Ohanian to measure the relationship. Also, the researcher collected data from 250 respondents in order to investigate the influence of food bloggers on Gen Z's decision-making process. SPSS statistical version 26 was used for statistical testing and analyzing the data. The findings of the survey revealed that there is a moderate positive correlation between the variables. So, it can be analyzed that food bloggers do have an impact on Generation Z's decision making process.

Keywords: credibility, decision making, food bloggers, generation z, e-wom

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Adrian Hang Yue Siu, Matthew Holyland, Sharon Carey, Daniel Steffens, Nabila Ansari, Cherry E. Koh

Abstract:

Introduction: Peritoneal malignancies are challenging cancers to manage. While cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS and HIPEC) may offer a cure, it’s considered radical and morbid. Pre-emptive identification of deconditioned patients for optimization may mitigate the risks of surgery. However, the difficulty lies in the scarcity of validated predictive tools to identify high-risk patients. In recent times, there has been growing interest in sarcopenia, which can occur as a result of malnutrition and malignancies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the utility of sarcopenia in predicting post-operative outcomes. Methods: A single quaternary-center retrospective study of CRS and HIPEC patients between 2017-2020 was conducted to determine the association between pre-operative sarcopenia and post-operative outcomes. Lumbar CT images were analyzed using Slice-o-matic® to measure sarcopenia. Results : Cohort (n=94) analysis found that 40% had sarcopenia, with a majority being female (53.2%) and a mean age of 55 years. Sarcopenia was statistically associated with decreased weight compared to non-sarcopenia patients, 72.7kg vs. 82.2kg (p=0.014) and shorter overall survival, 1.4 years vs. 2.1 years (p=0.032). Post-operatively, patients with sarcopenia experienced more post-operative complications (p=0.001). Conclusion: Complex procedures often require optimization to prevent complications and improve survival. While patient biomarkers – BMI and weight – are used for optimization, this research advocates for the identification of sarcopenia status for pre-operative planning. Sarcopenia may be an indicator of advanced disease requiring further treatment and is an emerging area of research. Larger studies are required to confirm these findings and to assess the reversibility of sarcopenia after surgery.

Keywords: sarcopaenia, cytoreductive surgery, hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy, surgical oncology

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: A. Falenski, A. Kaesbohrer, M. Filter

Abstract:

Introduction: Risk assessments can be performed in various ways and in different degrees of complexity. In order to assess risks associated with imported foods additional information needs to be taken into account compared to a risk assessment on regional products. The present review is an overview on currently available best practise approaches and data sources used for food import risk assessments (IRAs). Methods: A literature review has been performed. PubMed was searched for articles about food IRAs published in the years 2004 to 2014 (English and German texts only, search string “(English [la] OR German [la]) (2004:2014 [dp]) import [ti] risk”). Titles and abstracts were screened for import risks in the context of IRAs. The finally selected publications were analysed according to a predefined questionnaire extracting the following information: risk assessment guidelines followed, modelling methods used, data and software applied, existence of an analysis of uncertainty and variability. IRAs cited in these publications were also included in the analysis. Results: The PubMed search resulted in 49 publications, 17 of which contained information about import risks and risk assessments. Within these 19 cross references were identified to be of interest for the present study. These included original articles, reviews and guidelines. At least one of the guidelines of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Codex Alimentarius Commission were referenced in any of the IRAs, either for import of animals or for imports concerning foods, respectively. Interestingly, also a combination of both was used to assess the risk associated with the import of live animals serving as the source of food. Methods ranged from full quantitative IRAs using probabilistic models and dose-response models to qualitative IRA in which decision trees or severity tables were set up using parameter estimations based on expert opinions. Calculations were done using @Risk, R or Excel. Most heterogeneous was the type of data used, ranging from general information on imported goods (food, live animals) to pathogen prevalence in the country of origin. These data were either publicly available in databases or lists (e.g., OIE WAHID and Handystatus II, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, TRACES), accessible on a national level (e.g., herd information) or only open to a small group of people (flight passenger import data at national airport customs office). In the IRAs, an uncertainty analysis has been mentioned in some cases, but calculations have been performed only in a few cases. Conclusion: The current state-of-the-art in the assessment of risks of imported foods is characterized by a great heterogeneity in relation to general methodology and data used. Often information is gathered on a case-by-case basis and reformatted by hand in order to perform the IRA. This analysis therefore illustrates the need for a flexible, modular framework supporting the connection of existing data sources with data analysis and modelling tools. Such an infrastructure could pave the way to IRA workflows applicable ad-hoc, e.g. in case of a crisis situation.

Keywords: import risk assessment, review, tools, food import

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Donatus Otuiheoma Ohajianya, Augusta Onyekachi Unamba

Abstract:

This study analyzed risk among poultry farm enterprises in Imo State of Nigeria. Specifically, it examined sources of risks, the major risks associated with poultry farm enterprise, and the risk-reducing strategies among the poultry farm enterprises in the study area. Primary data collected in 2015 with validated questionnaire from 120 proportionately and randomly selected poultry farm enterprises were used for the study. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and W-Statistic that was validated with Pearson Criterion (X2). The results showed that major risk sources affecting poultry farm enterprises were production, marketing, financial and political in that order. The results found a W-Statistic value of 0.789, which was verified by Pearson Criterion to obtain X2-Calculated value of 4.65 which is lower that X2-Critical value of 11.07 at 5% significant level. The risk-reducing strategies were found to be diversification, savings, co-operative marketing, borrowing, and insurance. It was recommended that government and donor agencies should make policies aimed at encouraging poultry farm enterprises adopt the highlighted risk-reducing strategies in risk management to improve their productivity and farm income.

Keywords: risk, measurement, management, poultry farm, Imo State

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

Abstract:

Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 299