Search results for: case series
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13351

Search results for: case series

12991 Derivation of Fractional Black-Scholes Equations Driven by Fractional G-Brownian Motion and Their Application in European Option Pricing

Authors: Changhong Guo, Shaomei Fang, Yong He

Abstract:

In this paper, fractional Black-Scholes models for the European option pricing were established based on the fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm), which generalizes the concepts of the classical Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion and the G-Brownian motion, and that can be used to be a tool for considering the long range dependence and uncertain volatility for the financial markets simultaneously. A generalized fractional Black-Scholes equation (FBSE) was derived by using the Taylor’s series of fractional order and the theory of absence of arbitrage. Finally, some explicit option pricing formulas for the European call option and put option under the FBSE were also solved, which extended the classical option pricing formulas given by F. Black and M. Scholes.

Keywords: European option pricing, fractional Black-Scholes equations, fractional g-Brownian motion, Taylor's series of fractional order, uncertain volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
12990 Qualitative Study Method on Case Assignment Adopted by Singapore Medical Social Workers

Authors: Joleen L. H. Lee, K. F. Yen, Janette W. P. Ng, D. Woon, Mandy M. Y. Lau, Ivan M. H. Woo, S. N. Goh

Abstract:

Case assignment systems are created to meet a need for equity in work distribution and better match between medical social workers' (MSWs) competencies and patients' problems. However, there is no known study that has explored how MSWs in Singapore assign cases to achieve equity in work distribution. Focus group discussions were conducted with MSWs from public hospitals to understand their perception on equitable workload and case allocation. Three approaches to case allocation were found. First is the point system where points are allocated to cases based on a checklist of presenting issues identified most of the time by non-MSWs. Intensity of case is taken into consideration, but allocation of points is often subject to variation in appreciation of roles of MSWs by the source of referral. Second is the round robin system, where all MSWs are allocated cases based on a roster. This approach resulted in perceived equity due to element of luck, but it does not match case complexity with competencies of MSWs. Third approach is unit-based allocation, where MSWs are assigned to attend to cases from specific unit. This approach helps facilitate specialization among MSWs but may result in MSWs having difficulty providing transdisciplinary care due to narrow set of knowledge and skills. Trade-offs resulted across existing approaches for case allocation by MSWs. Conversations are needed among Singapore MSWs to decide on a case allocation system that comes with trade-offs that are acceptable for patients and other key stakeholders of the care delivery system.

Keywords: case allocation, equity, medical social worker, work distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
12989 Spatial Time Series Models for Rice and Cassava Yields Based on Bayesian Linear Mixed Models

Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 376
12988 Defining the Limits of No Load Test Parameters at Over Excitation to Ensure No Over-Fluxing of Core Based on a Case Study: A Perspective From Utilities

Authors: Pranjal Johri, Misbah Ul-Islam

Abstract:

Power Transformers are one of the most critical and failure prone entities in an electrical power system. It is an established practice that each design of a power transformer has to undergo numerous type tests for design validation and routine tests are performed on each and every power transformer before dispatch from manufacturer’s works. Different countries follow different standards for testing the transformers. Most common and widely followed standard for Power Transformers is IEC 60076 series. Though these standards put up a strict testing requirements for power transformers, however, few aspects of transformer characteristics and guaranteed parameters can be ensured by some additional tests. Based on certain observations during routine test of a transformer and analyzing the data of a large fleet of transformers, three propositions have been discussed and put forward to be included in test schedules and standards. The observations in the routine test raised questions on design flux density of transformer. In order to ensure that flux density in any part of the core & yoke does not exceed 1.9 tesla at 1.1 pu as well, following propositions need to be followed during testing:  From the data studied, it was evident that generally NLC at 1.1 pu is apporx. 3 times of No Load Current at 1 pu voltage.  During testing the power factor at 1.1 pu excitation, it must be comparable to calculated values from the Cold Rolled Grain Oriented steel material curves, including building factor.  A limit of 3 % to be extended for higher than rated voltages on difference in Vavg and Vrms, during no load testing.  Extended over excitation test to be done in case above propositions are observed to be violated during testing.

Keywords: power transfoemrs, no load current, DGA, power factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 71
12987 Small Target Recognition Based on Trajectory Information

Authors: Saad Alkentar, Abdulkareem Assalem

Abstract:

Recognizing small targets has always posed a significant challenge in image analysis. Over long distances, the image signal-to-noise ratio tends to be low, limiting the amount of useful information available to detection systems. Consequently, visual target recognition becomes an intricate task to tackle. In this study, we introduce a Track Before Detect (TBD) approach that leverages target trajectory information (coordinates) to effectively distinguish between noise and potential targets. By reframing the problem as a multivariate time series classification, we have achieved remarkable results. Specifically, our TBD method achieves an impressive 97% accuracy in separating target signals from noise within a mere half-second time span (consisting of 10 data points). Furthermore, when classifying the identified targets into our predefined categories—airplane, drone, and bird—we achieve an outstanding classification accuracy of 96% over a more extended period of 1.5 seconds (comprising 30 data points).

Keywords: small targets, drones, trajectory information, TBD, multivariate time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 22
12986 Detecting Anomalous Matches: An Empirical Study from National Basketball Association

Authors: Jacky Liu, Dulani Jayasuriya, Ryan Elmore

Abstract:

Match fixing and anomalous sports events have increasingly threatened the integrity of professional sports, prompting concerns about existing detection methods. This study addresses prior research limitations in match fixing detection, improving the identification of potential fraudulent matches by incorporating advanced anomaly detection techniques. We develop a novel method to identify anomalous matches and player performances by examining series of matches, such as playoffs. Additionally, we investigate bettors' potential profits when avoiding anomaly matches and explore factors behind unusual player performances. Our literature review covers match fixing detection, match outcome forecasting models, and anomaly detection methods, underscoring current limitations and proposing a new sports anomaly detection method. Our findings reveal anomalous series in the 2022 NBA playoffs, with the Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks series having the lowest natural occurrence probability. We identify abnormal player performances and bettors' profits significantly decrease when post-season matches are included. This study contributes by developing a new approach to detect anomalous matches and player performances, and assisting investigators in identifying responsible parties. While we cannot conclusively establish reasons behind unusual player performances, our findings suggest factors such as team financial difficulties, executive mismanagement, and individual player contract issues.

Keywords: anomaly match detection, match fixing, match outcome forecasting, problematic players identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 59
12985 Hip Resurfacing Makes for Easier Surgery with Better Functional Outcomes at Time of Revision: A Case Controlled Study

Authors: O. O. Onafowokan, K. Anderson, M. R. Norton, R. G. Middleton

Abstract:

Revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) is known to be a challenging procedure with potential for poor outcomes. Due to its lack of metaphyseal encroachment, hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA) is classified as a bone conserving procedure. Although the literature postulates that this is an advantage at time of revision surgery, there is no evidence to either support or refute this claim. We identified 129 hips that had undergone HRA and 129 controls undergoing first revision THA. We recorded the clinical assessment and survivorship of implants in a multi-surgeon, single centre, retrospective case control series for both arms. These were matched for age and sex. Data collected included demographics, indications for surgery, Oxford Hip Score (OHS), length of surgery, length of hospital stay, blood transfusion, implant complexity and further surgical procedures. Significance was taken as p < 0.05. Mean follow up was 7.5 years (1 to 15). There was a significant 6 point difference in postoperative OHS in favour of the revision resurfacing group (p=0.0001). The revision HRA group recorded 48 minutes less length of surgery (p<0.0001), 2 days less in length of hospital stay (p=0.018), a reduced need for blood transfusion (p=0.0001), a need for less complexity in revision implants (p=0.001) and a reduced probability of further surgery being required (P=0.003). Whilst we acknowledge the limitations of this study our results suggest that, in contrast to THA, the bone conservation element of HRA may make for a less traumatic revision procedure with better functional outcomes. Use of HRA has seen a dramatic decline as a result of concerns regarding metallosis. However, this information remains of relevance when counselling young active patients about their arthroplasty options and may become pertinent in the future if the promise of ceramic hip resurfacing is ever realized.

Keywords: hip resurfacing, metallosis, revision surgery, total hip arthroplasty

Procedia PDF Downloads 64
12984 A Guide for Using Viscoelasticity in ANSYS

Authors: A. Fettahoglu

Abstract:

Theory of viscoelasticity is used by many researchers to represent the behavior of many materials such as pavements on roads or bridges. Several researches used analytical methods and rheology to predict the material behaviors of simple models. Today, more complex engineering structures are analyzed using Finite Element Method, in which material behavior is embedded by means of three dimensional viscoelastic material laws. As a result, structures of unordinary geometry and domain can be analyzed by means of Finite Element Method and three dimensional viscoelastic equations. In the scope of this study, rheological models embedded in ANSYS, namely, generalized Maxwell model and Prony series, which are two methods used by ANSYS to represent viscoelastic material behavior, are presented explicitly. Afterwards, a guide is illustrated to ease using of viscoelasticity tool in ANSYS.

Keywords: ANSYS, generalized Maxwell model, finite element method, Prony series, viscoelasticity, viscoelastic material curve fitting

Procedia PDF Downloads 540
12983 Forecasting Model to Predict Dengue Incidence in Malaysia

Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

Abstract:

Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 455
12982 A Stepwise Approach to Automate the Search for Optimal Parameters in Seasonal ARIMA Models

Authors: Manisha Mukherjee, Diptarka Saha

Abstract:

Reliable forecasts of univariate time series data are often necessary for several contexts. ARIMA models are quite popular among practitioners in this regard. Hence, choosing correct parameter values for ARIMA is a challenging yet imperative task. Thus, a stepwise algorithm is introduced to provide automatic and robust estimates for parameters (p; d; q)(P; D; Q) used in seasonal ARIMA models. This process is focused on improvising the overall quality of the estimates, and it alleviates the problems induced due to the unidimensional nature of the methods that are currently used such as auto.arima. The fast and automated search of parameter space also ensures reliable estimates of the parameters that possess several desirable qualities, consequently, resulting in higher test accuracy especially in the cases of noisy data. After vigorous testing on real as well as simulated data, the algorithm doesn’t only perform better than current state-of-the-art methods, it also completely obviates the need for human intervention due to its automated nature.

Keywords: time series, ARIMA, auto.arima, ARIMA parameters, forecast, R function

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
12981 Endoscopic Treatment of Esophageal Injuries Using Vacuum Therapy

Authors: Murad Gasanov, Shagen Danielyan, Ali Gasanov, Yuri Teterin, Peter Yartsev

Abstract:

Background: Despite the advances made in modern surgery, the treatment of patients with esophageal injuries remains one of the most topical and complex issues. In recent years, high-technology minimally invasive methods, such as endoscopic vacuum therapy (EVT) in the treatment of esophageal injuries. The effectiveness of EVT has been sufficiently studied in case of failure of esophageal anastomoses, however the application of this method in case of mechanical esophageal injuries is limited by a small series of observations, indicating the necessity of additional study. Aim: The aim was to аnalyzed of own experience in the use of endoscopic vacuum therapy (EVT) in a comprehensive examination of patients with esophageal injuries. Methods: We analyzed the results of treatment of 24 patients with mechanical injuries of the esophagus for the period 2019-2021. Complex treatment of patients included the use of minimally invasive technologies, including percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG), EVT and video-assisted thoracoscopic debridement. Evaluation of the effectiveness of treatment was carried out using multislice computed tomography (MSCT), endoscopy and laboratory tests. The duration of inpatient treatment and the duration of EVT, the number of system replacements, complications and mortality were taken into account. Result: EVT in patients with mechanical injuries of the esophagus allowed to achieve epithelialization of the esophageal defect in 21 patients (87.5%) in the form of linear scar on the site of perforation or pseudodiverticulum. Complications were noted in 4 patients (16.6%), including bleeding (2) and and esophageal stenosis in the perforation area (2). Lethal outcome was in one observation (4.2%). Conclusion. EVT may be the method of choice in complex treatment in patients with esophageal lesions.

Keywords: esophagus injuries, damage to the esophagus, perforation of the esophagus, spontaneous perforation of the esophagus, mediastinitis, endoscopic vacuum therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
12980 Multi-Criteria Test Case Selection Using Ant Colony Optimization

Authors: Niranjana Devi N.

Abstract:

Test case selection is to select the subset of only the fit test cases and remove the unfit, ambiguous, redundant, unnecessary test cases which in turn improve the quality and reduce the cost of software testing. Test cases optimization is the problem of finding the best subset of test cases from a pool of the test cases to be audited. It will meet all the objectives of testing concurrently. But most of the research have evaluated the fitness of test cases only on single parameter fault detecting capability and optimize the test cases using a single objective. In the proposed approach, nine parameters are considered for test case selection and the best subset of parameters for test case selection is obtained using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Rough Set. Test case selection is done in two stages. The first stage is the fuzzy entropy-based filtration technique, used for estimating and reducing the ambiguity in test case fitness evaluation and selection. The second stage is the ant colony optimization-based wrapper technique with a forward search strategy, employed to select test cases from the reduced test suite of the first stage. The results are evaluated using the Coverage parameters, Precision, Recall, F-Measure, APSC, APDC, and SSR. The experimental evaluation demonstrates that by this approach considerable computational effort can be avoided.

Keywords: ant colony optimization, fuzzy entropy, interval type-2 fuzzy rough set, test case selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 638
12979 A Rare Case of Clinically Amyopathic Dermatomyositis in a Filipino Female

Authors: Rene A. Amadore Jr., Ramar John Bangayan, Therese Eileen L. Natividad

Abstract:

This is a case of a 59-year-old female who presented with a two-year history of heliotrope rash, Gottron's papules, shawl sign, V-neck sign, and muscle weakness. She was previously managed as a case of systemic lupus erythematosus, who initially responded to unrecalled corticosteroids. She was, however, admitted due to a one-month progressively enlarging sacral mass, which eventually turned out to be an abscess. While the abscess was being treated, her autoimmune condition was worked up, and she was then managed as a case of clinically amyopathic dermatomyositis (CADM) with interstitial lung disease (ILD). She received corticosteroids and underwent the first cycle of cyclophosphamide infusion prior to discharge.

Keywords: clinically amyopathic dermatomyositis, interstitial lung disease, corticosteroids, sacral abscess

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
12978 A Case Report on Diaphragm Disease of Small Bowel Following Usage of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs

Authors: Shivani Kuttuva, Bridget Fergie, Andrew Mishreki, Shovkat Mir, Fintan Bergin

Abstract:

Diaphragm disease (DD) of the small bowel is a condition wherein the bowel lumen is divided into a series of short compartments by multiple circumferential membranes of mucosa and submucosa, leading to pinhole lumen and subsequent obstruction. It is a rare condition commonly attributed to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) usage. Herein we present a 31-yr-old-female with a history of NSAIDs usage for one year following neurosurgery, who presented with recurrent idiopathic small bowel obstruction, recalcitrant anaemia, and impaction of capsule endoscope on investigating for anaemia. The capsule endoscopy images demonstrated multiple circumferential strictures with ulcers at its tip and villous atrophy in the proximal bowel, suggestive of NSAIDs related damage. However, due to the lack of awareness of the detrimental effects of NSAIDs on bowel mucosa distal to the duodenum, the underlying aetiology of this clinical presentation remained a mystery for a significant duration. The patient had to undergo repeated laparotomies in order to relieve the symptoms of recurring acute small bowel obstruction. Upon examining the resected specimen under microscopy, the histopathological hallmark of expanded, fibrotic, and congested submucosa was picked up, leading to the confirmation of diaphragm disease. Thus, this case report aims to widen the awareness among clinicians and aid surgeons in devising a management plan for young individuals presenting with recurring episodes of obstruction due to Diaphragm disease.

Keywords: capsule endoscopy, diaphragm disease, NSAIDs, recurrent small bowel obstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
12977 An Investigation into the Use of Overset Mesh for a Vehicle Aerodynamics Case When Driving in Close Proximity

Authors: Kushal Kumar Chode, Remus Miahi Cirstea

Abstract:

In recent times, the drive towards more efficient vehicles and the increase in the number of vehicle on the roads has driven the aerodynamic researchers from studying the vehicle in isolation towards understanding the benefits of vehicle platooning. Vehicle platooning is defined as a series of vehicles traveling in close proximity. Due to the limitations in size and load measurement capabilities for the wind tunnels facilities, it is very difficult to perform this investigation experimentally. In this paper, the use of chimera or overset meshing technique is used within the STARCCM+ software to model the flow surrounding two identical vehicle models travelling in close proximity and also during an overtaking maneuver. The results are compared with data obtained from a polyhedral mesh and identical physics conditions. The benefits in terms of computational time and resources and the accuracy of the overset mesh approach are investigated.

Keywords: chimera mesh, computational accuracy, overset mesh, platooning vehicles

Procedia PDF Downloads 329
12976 A Comparative Time-Series Analysis and Deep Learning Projection of Innate Radon Gas Risk in Canadian and Swedish Residential Buildings

Authors: Selim M. Khan, Dustin D. Pearson, Tryggve Rönnqvist, Markus E. Nielsen, Joshua M. Taron, Aaron A. Goodarzi

Abstract:

Accumulation of radioactive radon gas in indoor air poses a serious risk to human health by increasing the lifetime risk of lung cancer and is classified by IARC as a category one carcinogen. Radon exposure risks are a function of geologic, geographic, design, and human behavioural variables and can change over time. Using time series and deep machine learning modelling, we analyzed long-term radon test outcomes as a function of building metrics from 25,489 Canadian and 38,596 Swedish residential properties constructed between 1945 to 2020. While Canadian and Swedish properties built between 1970 and 1980 are comparable (96–103 Bq/m³), innate radon risks subsequently diverge, rising in Canada and falling in Sweden such that 21st Century Canadian houses show 467% greater average radon (131 Bq/m³) relative to Swedish equivalents (28 Bq/m³). These trends are consistent across housing types and regions within each country. The introduction of energy efficiency measures within Canadian and Swedish building codes coincided with opposing radon level trajectories in each nation. Deep machine learning modelling predicts that, without intervention, average Canadian residential radon levels will increase to 176 Bq/m³ by 2050, emphasizing the importance and urgency of future building code intervention to achieve systemic radon reduction in Canada.

Keywords: radon health risk, time-series, deep machine learning, lung cancer, Canada, Sweden

Procedia PDF Downloads 64
12975 KUCERIA: A Media to Increase Students’ Reading Interest and Nutrition Knowledge

Authors: Luthfia A. Eka, Bertri M. Masita, G. Indah Lestari, Rizka. Ryanindya, Anindita D. Nur, Asih. Setiarini

Abstract:

The preferred habit nowadays is to watch television or listen to the radio rather than reading a newspaper or magazine. The low interest in reading is the reason to the Indonesian government passed a regulation to foster interest in reading early in schoolchildren through literacy programs. Literacy programs are held for the first 10 - 15 minutes before classes begin and children are asked to read books other than textbooks such as storybooks or magazines. In addition, elementary school children have a tendency to buy less healthy snacks around the school and do not know the nutrition fact from the food purchased. Whereas snacks contribute greatly in the fulfillment of energy and nutrients of children every day. The purpose of this study was to increase reading interest as well as knowledge of nutrition and health for elementary school students. This study used quantitative method with experimental study design for four months with twice intervention per week and deepened by qualitative method in the form of interview. The participants were 130 students consisting of 3rd and 4th graders in selected elementary school in Depok City. The Interventions given using KUCERIA (Child Storybook) which were storybooks with pictures consisting of 12 series about nutrition and health given at school literacy hours. There were five questions given by using the crossword method to find out the students' understanding of the story content in each series. To maximize the understanding and absorption of information, two students were asked to retell the story in front of the class and one student to fill the crossword on the board for each series. In addition, interviews were conducted by asking questions about students' interest in reading books. Intervention involved not only students but also teachers and parents in order to optimize students' reading habits. Analysis showed > 80% of student could answer 3 of 5 questions correctly in each series, which showed they had an interest in what they read. Research data on nutrition and health knowledge were analyzed using Wilcoxon and Chi-Square Test to see the relationship. However, only 46% of students completed 12 series and the rest lost to follow up due to school schedule incompatibility with the program. The results showed that there was a significant increase of knowledge (p = 0.000) between before intervention with 66,53 score and after intervention with 81,47 score. Retention of knowledge was conducted one month after the last intervention was administered and the analysis result showed no significant decrease of knowledge (p = 0,000) from 79,17 score to 75,48 score. There is also no relationship between sex and class with knowledge. Hence, an increased interest in reading of elementary school students and nutritional knowledge interventions using KUCERIA was proved successful. These interventions may be replicated in other schools or learning communities.

Keywords: literation, reading interest, nutrition knowledge, school children

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
12974 Forecasting Residential Water Consumption in Hamilton, New Zealand

Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

Abstract:

Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

Procedia PDF Downloads 309
12973 The Reconstruction of Paleoenvironment Aptian Sediments of the Massive Serdj, North Central Tunisia

Authors: H. Khaled, F. Chaabani, F. Boulvain

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the studied of Aptian series that crops out at the Jebel Serdj in the north central Tunisia. The study series is about 590 meters thick and it is consisting of limestones, marly limestones associated with some levels of siltstones and marls. Two sections are studied in detail regarding lithology, microfacies, magnetic susceptibility and mineralogical composition to provide new insights into the paleoenvironmental evolution and paleoclimatological implications during this period. The following facies associations representing different ramp palaeoenvironments have been identified: mudstone–wackestone outer ramp facies; skeletal grainstone- packstone mid-ramp facies, packstone-grainstone inner-ramp facies which include a variety of organisms such as rudists and ooids and mudstone–wackestone coastal facies rich with miliolidea and orbitolines. The magnetic susceptibility (Xᵢₙ) of all samples was compared with the lithological and microfacies variation. We show that high values of magnetic susceptibility are correlated with the distal facies.

Keywords: Aptian, Serdj Formation, geochemical, mineralogy

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
12972 The Key Role of Yttrium Oxide on Devitrification Resilience of Barium Gallo-germanate Glasses: Physicochemical Properties and Crystallization Study

Authors: Samar Aoujia, Théo Guérineaub, Rayan Zaitera, Evelyne Fargina, Younès Messaddeqb, Thierry Cardinala

Abstract:

Two barium gallo-germanate glass series were elaborated to investigate the effect of the yttrium introduction on the glass physicochemical properties and crystallization behavior. One to twenty mol% of YO3/2 were either added into the glass matrix or substituted for gallium oxide. The glass structure was studied by Raman spectroscopy, and the thermal, optical, thermo-mechanical and physical properties are examined. The introduction of yttrium ions in both glass series increases the glass transition temperature, crystallization temperature, softening temperature, coefficient of linear thermal expansion and density. Through differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction analyses, it was found that competition occurs between the gallo-germanate zeolite-type phase and the yttrium-containing phase. From 13 mol% of YO3/2, the yttrium introduction impedes the formation of surface crystallization in these glasses.

Keywords: photonic, heavy-metal oxide, glass, crystallization

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
12971 Damage Detection in a Cantilever Beam under Different Excitation and Temperature Conditions

Authors: A. Kyprianou, A. Tjirkallis

Abstract:

Condition monitoring of structures in service is very important as it provides information about the risk of damage development. One of the essential constituents of structural condition monitoring is the damage detection methodology. In the context of condition monitoring of in service structures a damage detection methodology analyses data obtained from the structure while it is in operation. Usually, this means that the data could be affected by operational and environmental conditions in a way that could mask the effects of a possible damage on the data. This, depending on the damage detection methodology, could lead to either false alarms or miss existing damages. In this article a damage detection methodology that is based on the Spatio-temporal continuous wavelet transform (SPT-CWT) analysis of a sequence of experimental time responses of a cantilever beam is proposed. The cantilever is subjected to white and pink noise excitation to simulate different operating conditions. In addition, in order to simulate changing environmental conditions, the cantilever is subjected to heating by a heat gun. The response of the cantilever beam is measured by a high-speed camera. Edges are extracted from the series of images of the beam response captured by the camera. Subsequent processing of the edges gives a series of time responses on 439 points on the beam. This sequence is then analyzed using the SPT-CWT to identify damage. The algorithm proposed was able to clearly identify damage under any condition when the structure was excited by white noise force. In addition, in the case of white noise excitation, the analysis could also reveal the position of the heat gun when it was used to heat the structure. The analysis could identify the different operating conditions i.e. between responses due to white noise excitation and responses due to pink noise excitation. During the pink noise excitation whereas damage and changing temperature were identified it was not possible to clearly identify the effect of damage from that of temperature. The methodology proposed in this article for damage detection enables the separation the damage effect from that due to temperature and excitation on data obtained from measurements of a cantilever beam. This methodology does not require information about the apriori state of the structure.

Keywords: spatiotemporal continuous wavelet transform, damage detection, data normalization, varying temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 262
12970 The Kinks, the Solitons, and the Shocks in Series Connected Discrete Josephson Transmission Lines

Authors: Eugene Kogan

Abstract:

We analytically study the localized running waves in the discrete Josephson transmission lines (JTL), constructed from Josephson junctions (JJ) and capacitors. The quasi-continuum approximation reduces the calculation of the running wave properties to the problem of equilibrium of an elastic rod in the potential field. Making additional approximations, we reduce the problem to the motion of the fictitious Newtonian particle in the potential well. We show that there exist running waves in the form of supersonic kinks and solitons and calculate their velocities and profiles. We show that the nonstationary smooth waves, which are small perturbations on the homogeneous non-zero background, are described by Korteweg-de Vries equation, and those on zero background -by the modified Korteweg-de Vries equation. We also study the effect of dissipation on the running waves in JTL and find that in the presence of the resistors, shunting the JJ and/or in series with the ground capacitors, the only possible stationary running waves are the shock waves, whose profiles are also found.

Keywords: Josephson transmission line, shocks, solitary waves, nonlinear waves

Procedia PDF Downloads 95
12969 Semi-Transparent Dye-Sensitized Solar Panels for Energy Autonomous Greenhouses

Authors: A. Mourtzikou, D. Sygkridou, T. Georgakopoulos, G. Katsagounos, E. Stathatos

Abstract:

Over 60% highly transparent quasi-solid-state dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) with dimension of 50x50 cm2 were fabricated via inkjet printing process using nanocomposite inks as raw materials and tested under outdoor illumination conditions. The cells were electrically characterized, and their possible application to the shell of greenhouses was also examined. The panel design was in Z-interconnection, where the working electrode was inkjet printed on one conductive glass and the counter electrode on a second glass in a sandwich configuration. Silver current collective fingers were printed on the glasses to make the internal electrical connections. In that case, the adjacent cells were connected in series via silver fingers and finally insulated using a UV curing resin to protect them from the corrosive (I-/I3-) redox couple of the electrolyte.

Keywords: Dye-sensitized solar panels, inkjet printing, quasi-solid state electrolyte, semi-transparency, scale up

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
12968 Design of Reconfigurable Supernumerary Robotic Limb Based on Differential Actuated Joints

Authors: Qinghua Zhang, Yanhe Zhu, Xiang Zhao, Yeqin Yang, Hongwei Jing, Guoan Zhang, Jie Zhao

Abstract:

This paper presents a wearable reconfigurable supernumerary robotic limb with differential actuated joints, which is lightweight, compact and comfortable for the wearers. Compared to the existing supernumerary robotic limbs which mostly adopted series structure with large movement space but poor carrying capacity, a prototype with the series-parallel configuration to better adapt to different task requirements has been developed in this design. To achieve a compact structure, two kinds of cable-driven mechanical structures based on guide pulleys and differential actuated joints were designed. Moreover, two different tension devices were also designed to ensure the reliability and accuracy of the cable-driven transmission. The proposed device also employed self-designed bearings which greatly simplified the structure and reduced the cost.

Keywords: cable-driven, differential actuated joints, reconfigurable, supernumerary robotic limb

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
12967 The Use of Religious Symbols in the Workplace: Remarks on the Latest Case Law

Authors: Susana Sousa Machado

Abstract:

The debate on the use of religious symbols has been highlighted in modern societies, especially in the field of labour relationships. As litigiousness appears to be growing, the matter requires a careful study from a legal perspective. In this context, a description and critical analysis of the most recent case law is conducted regarding the use of symbols by the employee in the workplace, delivered both by the European Court of Human Rights and by the Court of Justice of the European Union. From this comparative analysis we highlight the most relevant aspects in order to seek a common core regarding the juridical-argumentative approach of case law.

Keywords: religion, religious symbols, workplace, discrimination

Procedia PDF Downloads 395
12966 Design and Construction Validation of Pile Performance through High Strain Pile Dynamic Tests for both Contiguous Flight Auger and Drilled Displacement Piles

Authors: S. Pirrello

Abstract:

Sydney’s booming real estate market has pushed property developers to invest in historically “no-go” areas, which were previously too expensive to develop. These areas are usually near rivers where the sites are underlain by deep alluvial and estuarine sediments. In these ground conditions, conventional bored pile techniques are often not competitive. Contiguous Flight Auger (CFA) and Drilled Displacement (DD) Piles techniques are on the other hand suitable for these ground conditions. This paper deals with the design and construction challenges encountered with these piling techniques for a series of high-rise towers in Sydney’s West. The advantages of DD over CFA piles such as reduced overall spoil with substantial cost savings and achievable rock sockets in medium strength bedrock are discussed. Design performances were assessed with PIGLET. Pile performances are validated in two stages, during constructions with the interpretation of real-time data from the piling rigs’ on-board computer data, and after construction with analyses of results from high strain pile dynamic testing (PDA). Results are then presented and discussed. High Strain testing data are presented as Case Pile Wave Analysis Program (CAPWAP) analyses.

Keywords: contiguous flight auger (CFA) , DEFPIG, case pile wave analysis program (CAPWAP), drilled displacement piles (DD), pile dynamic testing (PDA), PIGLET, PLAXIS, repute, pile performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 258
12965 Active Power Flow Control Using a TCSC Based Backstepping Controller in Multimachine Power System

Authors: Naimi Abdelhamid, Othmane Abdelkhalek

Abstract:

With the current rise in the demand of electrical energy, present-day power systems which are large and complex, will continue to grow in both size and complexity. Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) controllers provide new facilities, both in steady state power flow control and dynamic stability control. Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitor (TCSC) is one of FACTS equipment, which is used for power flow control of active power in electric power system and for increase of capacities of transmission lines. In this paper, a Backstepping Power Flow Controller (BPFC) for TCSC in multimachine power system is developed and tested. The simulation results show that the TCSC proposed controller is capable of controlling the transmitted active power and improving the transient stability when compared with conventional PI Power Flow Controller (PIPFC).

Keywords: FACTS, thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC), backstepping, BPFC, PIPFC

Procedia PDF Downloads 502
12964 A Survey on the Blockchain Smart Contract System: Security Strengths and Weaknesses

Authors: Malaw Ndiaye, Karim Konate

Abstract:

Smart contracts are computer protocols that facilitate, verify, and execute the negotiation or execution of a contract, or that render a contractual term unnecessary. Blockchain and smart contracts can be used to facilitate almost any financial transaction. Thanks to these smart contracts, the settlement of dividends and coupons could be automated. Smart contracts have become lucrative and profitable targets for attackers because they can hold a great amount of money. Smart contracts, although widely used in blockchain technology, are far from perfect due to security concerns. Since there are recent studies on smart contract security, none of them systematically study the strengths and weaknesses of smart contract security. Some have focused on an analysis of program-related vulnerabilities by providing a taxonomy of vulnerabilities. Other studies are responsible for listing the series of attacks linked to smart contracts. Although a series of attacks are listed, there is a lack of discussions and proposals on improving security. This survey takes stock of smart contract security from a more comprehensive perspective by correlating the level of vulnerability and systematic review of security levels in smart contracts.

Keywords: blockchain, Bitcoin, smart contract, criminal smart contract, security

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
12963 Case Study on Gender Equality in the United Arab Emirates through the Lens of Sport

Authors: Nioofar Margarite Rouhani

Abstract:

Using a case study methodology, this study explores the lived experiences of elite women footballers (soccer) team in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the challenges and enablers women in this country encountered in their journey to competing at an international level. Through a series of face-to-face interviews with members of the first all-Emirati (people with UAE passport) women’s football team, members of the team’s coaching staff and key policymakers, the study sought to explore the social and cultural conditions that enabled the emergence of this team. A key aim of the study was to analyze the cultural shifts that have seemingly facilitated changes to gender relations in the UAE and to highlight possibilities for future gender equality work. The study explores the significance of sport in UAE society and its role in disrupting traditional gender boundaries. To do this, the study identifies and analyses contemporary social (religion, class, and culture) conditions that facilitate, and/or restrict, women’s sports participation in the public sphere of sport. Drawing on a feminist poststructural framework the study sought to analyse the discursive enactment of (disruptive) gender identity positions, using lenses such as ‘discourse’ and ‘power’. With a particular focus on elite women’s sport, the study sought to build knowledge around the advance of female participation in what has long been considered as a masculine domain. Here, the study sought to explore the lived experience of social change through a series of face-to-face interviews with members of the first all-Emirati- women’s football team and key support personnel. To maintain representational integrity, the principles of narrative methodology were employed for their ability to privilege the voices of participants while integrating contextual forces that comprised the stories they told about their experiences and the key people who participated in them. This approach supported a key aim of the study, being to analyse the cultural shifts that have supported changes in gender performance in the UAE and to highlight possibilities for future gender disruption. While the results of the study convey a growing sense of opportunity for aspiring sportswomen in the UAE, they also reveal that the participant pathways were full of contestation and restriction. What we learn from the stories of the first Emirate women’s football team is that where the will is strong enough, there can be a way. While it is reasonable to assume that such pathways will become easier in the future, as the participation of women in such sporting arenas becomes less exceptional, there are factors that are likely to enable and disable such journeys. Prominent here is the presence of a ‘powerful’ guardian and mentor who can offer sustained support, and influence. In a society where males continue to have disproportionate access to social and domestic power, such support can be extremely influential. Guardians and mentors can play a crucial role in garnering the support of dominant male figures, or helping to find ways to work around it.

Keywords: gender equality, women, sport, Middle East

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
12962 Preparation of Sorbent Materials for the Removal of Hardness and Organic Pollutants from Water and Wastewater

Authors: Thanaa Abdel Moghny, Mohamed Keshawy, Mahmoud Fathy, Abdul-Raheim M. Abdul-Raheim, Khalid I. Kabel, Ahmed F. El-Kafrawy, Mahmoud Ahmed Mousa, Ahmed E. Awadallah

Abstract:

Ecological pollution is of great concern for human health and the environment. Numerous organic and inorganic pollutants usually discharged into the water caused carcinogenic or toxic effect for human and different life form. In this respect, this work aims to treat water contaminated by organic and inorganic waste using sorbent based on polystyrene. Therefore, two different series of adsorbent material were prepared; the first one included the preparation of polymeric sorbent from the reaction of styrene acrylate ester and alkyl acrylate. The second series involved syntheses of composite ion exchange resins of waste polystyrene and   amorphous carbon thin film (WPS/ACTF) by solvent evaporation using micro emulsion polymerization. The produced ACTF/WPS nanocomposite was sulfonated to produce cation exchange resins ACTF/WPSS nanocomposite. The sorbents of the first series were characterized using FTIR, 1H NMR, and gel permeation chromatography. The thermal properties of the cross-linked sorbents were investigated using thermogravimetric analysis, and the morphology was characterized by scanning electron microscope (SEM). The removal of organic pollutant was determined through absorption tests in a various organic solvent. The chemical and crystalline structure of nanocomposite of second series has been proven by studies of FTIR spectrum, X-rays, thermal analysis, SEM and TEM analysis to study morphology of resins and ACTF that assembled with polystyrene chain. It is found that the composite resins ACTF/WPSS are thermally stable and show higher chemical stability than ion exchange WPSS resins. The composite resin was evaluated for calcium hardness removal. The result is evident that the ACTF/WPSS composite has more prominent inorganic pollutant removal than WPSS resin. So, we recommend the using of nanocomposite resin as new potential applications for water treatment process.

Keywords: nanocomposite, sorbent materials, waste water, waste polystyrene

Procedia PDF Downloads 406