Search results for: mixed effect logistic regression model

Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

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Authors: Z. Hormozi Moghaddam, M. Mokhtari-Dizaji, M. Movahedin, M. E. Ravari

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Mechanical index (MI) is used for quantifying acoustic cavitation and the relationship between acoustic pressure and the frequency. In this study, modeling of the MI was applied to provide treatment protocol and to understand the effective physical processes on reproducibility of stem cells. The acoustic pressure and MI equations are modeled and solved to estimate optimal MI for 28, 40, 150 kHz and 1 MHz frequencies. Radial and axial acoustic pressure distribution was extracted. To validate the results of the modeling, the acoustic pressure in the water and near field depth was measured by a piston hydrophone. Results of modeling and experiments show that the model is consistent well to experimental results with 0.91 and 0.90 correlation of coefficient (p<0.05) for 1 MHz and 40 kHz. Low intensity ultrasound with 0.40 MI is more effective on the proliferation rate of the spermatogonial stem cells during the seven days of culture, in contrast, high MI has a harmful effect on the spermatogonial stem cells. This model provides proper treatment planning in vitro and in vivo by estimating the cavitation phenomenon.

Keywords: ultrasound, mechanical index, modeling, stem cell

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Sonia Tamanna, Akramul Hassan, Mohammad Shakil Mahmood, Farzana Ansari, Gowhar Rashid, Mir Fahim Faisal, M. Zakir Hossain Howlader

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Background: Preeclampsia (PE), a pregnancy-specific hypertensive disorder, significantly impacts maternal and fetal health. It is particularly prevalent in underdeveloped countries and is linked to preterm delivery and fetal growth. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) plays a crucial role in ensuring a successful pregnancy outcome, with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) being a key component. ACE2 converts ANG II to Ang-(1-7), offering protection against ANG II-induced stress and inflammation while regulating blood pressure and osmotic balance during pregnancy. The reduced maternal plasma angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) seen in preeclampsia might contribute to its pathogenesis. However, there has been a dearth of comprehensive research into the association between ACE2 gene polymorphism and preeclampsia. In the South Asian population, hypertension is strongly linked to two SNPs: rs2285666 and rs879922. This genotype was therefore considered, and the possible association of maternal and fetal ACE2 gene polymorphism with preeclampsia within the Bangladeshi population was evaluated. Method: DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells (WBCs) using the organic method, and SNP genotyping was done via PCR-RFLP. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using logistic regression to determine relative risk. Result: A comprehensive case-control study was conducted on 51 PE patients and their infants, along with 56 control subjects and their infants. Maternal single nuvleotide polymorphisms (SNP) (rs2285666) analysis revealed a strong association between the TT genotype and preeclampsia, with a four-fold increased risk in mothers (P=0.024, OR=4.00, 95% CI=1.36-11.37) compared to their ancestral genotype CC. However, the CT genotype (rs2285666) showed no significant difference (P=0.46, OR=1.54, 95% CI=0.57-4.14). Notably, no significant correlation was found in infants, regardless of their gender. For rs879922, no significant association was observed in both mothers and infants. This pioneering study suggests that mothers carrying the ACE2 gene variant rs2285666 (TT allele) may be at higher risk for preeclampsia, potentially influencing hypertension characteristics, whereas rs879922 does not appear to be associated with developing preeclampsia. Conclusion: This study sheds light on the role of ACE2 gene polymorphism, particularly the rs2285666 TT allele, in maternal susceptibility to preeclampsia. However, rs879922 does not appear to be linked to the risk of PE. This research contributes to our understanding of the genetic underpinnings of preeclampsia, offering insights into potential avenues for prevention and management.

Keywords: ACE2, PCR-RFLP, preeclampsia, single nuvleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)

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Authors: Mohamed T. Faheem Saidahmed, Ahmed M. Attiya Ibrahim, Basma GH. Elkilany

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This paper discusses the application of Time Delay Control (TDC) compensation technique in the juice extraction process in a sugar mill. The objective is to improve the control performance of the process and increase extraction efficiency. The paper presents the mathematical model of the juice extraction process and the design of the TDC compensation controller. Simulation results show that the TDC compensation technique can effectively suppress the time delay effect in the process and improve control performance. The extraction efficiency is also significantly increased with the application of the TDC compensation technique. The proposed approach provides a practical solution for improving the juice extraction process in sugar mills using MATLAB Processes.

Keywords: time delay control (TDC), exact and unique state space model, delay compensation, Smith predictor.

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Authors: Muhammad Luqman, Mujahid Karim

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Agricultural journalism considered an effective tool in the diffusion of agricultural technologies among the members of farming communities. Various agricultural journalism forms are used by the different organization in order to address the community problems and provide solutions to them. The present study was conducted for analyzing the role of agricultural journalism in the dissemination of agricultural information. The universe of the study was district Sargodha from which a sample of 100 was collected through a validating and pre-tested questionnaire. Statistical analysis of collected data was done with the help of SPSS. It was concluded that majority (64.6%) of the respondent were middle-aged (31-50) years, also indicates a high (73.23%) literacy rate above middle-level education, most (78.3%) of the respondents were connected with the occupation of farming. In various forms of agricultural journalism “Radio/T.V./F.M) is used by 99.4% of the respondent, Mobile phones (96%), Magazine/ Newspaper/ periodical (66.4%) and social media (60.9%). Regarding majors areas focused on agriculture journalism “Help farmers to enhance their productivity is on the highest level with a mean of ( =3.98/5.00). The regression model of farmer's education and various forms of agricultural journalism facilities used was found to be significant.

Keywords: agricultural information, journalism, farming community, technology diffusion and adoption

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Authors: Pouya Molana, Zeinab Alimohammadi

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Determining wind wave characteristics is essential for implementing projects related to Coastal and Marine engineering such as designing coastal and marine structures, estimating sediment transport rates and coastal erosion rates in order to predict significant wave height (H_s), this study applies the third generation spectral wave model, Mike 21 SW, along with CEM model. For SW model calibration and verification, two data sets of meteorology and wave spectroscopy are used. The model was exposed to time-varying wind power and the results showed that difference ratio mean, standard deviation of difference ratio and correlation coefficient in SW model for H_s parameter are 1.102, 0.279 and 0.983, respectively. Whereas, the difference ratio mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient in The Choice Experiment Method (CEM) for the same parameter are 0.869, 1.317 and 0.8359, respectively. Comparing these expected results it is revealed that the Choice Experiment Method CEM has more errors in comparison to MIKE 21 SW third generation spectral wave model and higher correlation coefficient does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.

Keywords: MIKE 21 SW, CEM method, significant wave height, difference ratio

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Authors: Derrick Boakye Boadu, Zahra Fakhri

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Transformational leaders are the catalyst of change and focus more importantly on members or followers. Involvement of transformational leadership style in organizational structures can provide interesting nuances to the implementation and enhancement of citizen and customer participation mechanisms in an organization regardless of the time consuming, cost, and delaying process of analyzing the feedback of workers and citizens/customers which stifles good outcome of organization’s department performance. It posits that transformational leadership has a positive direct effect on organization-departmental performance and the intervening role of citizen and customer participation and internal communication. Using the NASP-IV 2007 data, the article finds support for the five hypotheses in a structural equation model, and the findings show that transformational leadership does have a direct impact on organizational-departmental performance a partial mediation effect of the relationship through the role of internal communication and citizen and customer participation.  

Keywords: transformational leaders, departmental performance, internal communication, citizen/customer participation

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Authors: Wenxin Mei, Jinhua Sun, Qingsong Wang

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The volume expansion of lithium-ion batteries is mainly induced by intercalation induced stress within the negative electrode, resulting in capacity degradation and even battery failure. Stress generation due to lithium intercalation into graphite particles is investigated based on an electrochemical-mechanical model in this work. The two-dimensional model presented is fully coupled, inclusive of the impacts of intercalation-induced stress, stress-induced intercalation, to evaluate the lithium concentration, stress generation, and displacement intra and inter-particle. The results show that the distribution of lithium concentration and stress exhibits an analogous pattern, which reflects the relation between lithium diffusion and stress. The results of inter-particle stress indicate that larger Von-Mises stress is displayed where the two particles are in contact with each other, and deformation at the edge of particles is also observed, predicting fracture. Additionally, the maximum inter-particle stress at the end of lithium intercalation is nearly ten times the intraparticle stress. And the maximum inter-particle displacement is increased by 24% compared to the single-particle. Finally, the effect of graphite particle arrangement on inter-particle stress is studied. It is found that inter-particle stress with tighter arrangement exhibits lower stress. This work can provide guidance for predicting the intra and inter-particle stress to take measures to avoid cracking of electrode material.

Keywords: electrochemical-mechanical model, graphite particle, lithium concentration, lithium ion battery, stress

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Authors: Hajer Habib, Ghazi Boulila

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The objective of this paper is to present our contribution to the theoretical literature through a simple theoretical model dealing with the effect of transferring funds on the labor market of the countries of origin and on the other hand to test this relationship empirically in the case of Tunisia. The methodology used consists of estimating a panel of the nine main destinations of the Tunisian diaspora in Europe between 1994 and 2014 in order to better value the net effect of these migratory financial flows on unemployment through population growth. The empirical results show that the main factors explaining the decision to emigrate are the economic factors related mainly to the income differential, the demographic factors related to the differential age structure of the origin and host populations, and the cultural factors linked basically to the mastery of the language. Indeed, the stock of migrants is one of the main determinants of the transfer of migratory funds to Tunisia. But there are other variables that do not lack importance such as the economic conditions linked by the host countries. This shows that Tunisian migrants react more to economic conditions in European countries than in Tunisia. The economic situation of European countries dominates the numbers of emigrants as an explanatory factor for the amount of transfers from Tunisian emigrants to their country of origin. Similarly, it is clear that there is an indirect effect of transfers on unemployment in Tunisia. This suggests that the demographic transition conditions the effects of transferring funds on the level of unemployment.

Keywords: demographic changes, international migration, labor market, remittances

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Authors: Riko Wahyudi, Rezky Lasekti Wicaksono, Ayu Satya Damayanti, Ridhasepta Multi Kenrosa

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Implementing Forest Management Unit (FMU) is considered as the best solution for forest management in developing countries. However, when FMU has been formed, many parties then blame the FMU and assume it is not working on. Currently, there are two main issues that make FMU not be functional i.e. institutional and financial issues. This paper is addressing financial issues to make FMUs in Aceh Province can be functional. A mixed financing scheme is proposed here, both direct and indirect financing. The direct financing scheme derived from two components i.e. public funds and businesses. Non-tax instruments of intergovernmental fiscal transfer (IFT) system and FMU’s businesses are assessed. Meanwhile, indirect financing scheme is conducted by assessing public funds within villages around forest estate as about 50% of total villages in Aceh Province are located surrounding forest estate. Potential instruments under IFT system are forest and mining utilization royalties. In order to make these instruments become direct financing for FMU, interventions on allocation and distribution aspects of them are conducted. In the allocation aspect, alteration in proportion of allocation is required as the authority to manage forest has shifted from district to province. In the distribution aspect, Government of Aceh can earmark usage of the funds for FMUs. International funds for climate change also encouraged to be domesticated and then channeled through these instruments or new instrument under public finance system in Indonesia. Based on FMU’s businesses both from forest products and forest services, FMU can impose non-tax fees for each forest product and service utilization. However, for doing business, the FMU need to be a Public Service Agency (PSA). With this status, FMU can directly utilize the non-tax fees without transferring them to the state treasury. FMU only need to report the fees to Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, indirect financing scheme is conducted by empowering villages around forest estate as villages in Aceh Province is receiving average village fund of IDR 800 million per village in 2017 and the funds will continue to increase in subsequent years. These schemes should be encouraged in parallel to establish a mixed financing scheme in order to ensure sustainable financing for FMU in Aceh Province, Indonesia.

Keywords: forest management, public funds, mixed financing, village

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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The research was conducted to apply semiparametric SEM modeling to the timeliness of paying credit. Semiparametric SEM is structural modeling in which two combined approaches of parametric and nonparametric approaches are used. The analysis method in this research is semiparametric SEM with a nonparametric approach using a truncated spline. The data in the study were obtained through questionnaires distributed to Bank X mortgage debtors and are confidential. The study used 3 variables consisting of one exogenous variable, one intervening endogenous variable, and one endogenous variable. The results showed that (1) the effect of capacity and willingness to pay variables on timeliness of payment is significant, (2) modeling the capacity variable on willingness to pay also produces a significant estimate, (3) the effect of the capacity variable on the timeliness of payment variable is not influenced by the willingness to pay variable as an intervening variable, (4) the R^2 value of 0.763 or 76.33% indicates that the model has good predictive relevance.

Keywords: structural equation modeling semiparametric, credit bank, accuracy of payment time, willingness to pay

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Hyun-Ju Oh, Soon-Rim Suh, Mihan Kim

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The steady and rapid increase of the older population is a global phenomenon. Chronic diseases and disabilities are increased due to aging. In general, exercise has been known to be most effective in preventing and managing chronic back pain. However, it is hard for the older women to initiate and maintain the exercise. Transtheoretical model (TTM) is one of the theories explain behavioral changes such as exercise. The application of the program considering the stage of behavior change is effective for the elderly woman to start and maintain the exercise. The purpose of this study was to develop TTM based exercise program and to examine its effect for elderly women with chronic back-pain. For the program evaluation, the non-equivalent control pre-posttest design was applied. The independent variable of this study is exercise intervention program. The contents of the program were constructed considering the characteristics of the elderly women with chronic low back pain, focusing on the process of change, the stage of change by the previous studies. The developed exercise program was applied to the elderly women with chronic low back pain in the planning stage and the preparation stage. The subjects were 50 older women over 65 years of age with chronic back-pain who did not practice regular exercise. The experimental group (n=25) received the 8weeks TTM based exercise program. The control group received the book which named low back pain management. Data were collected at three times: before the exercise intervention, right after the intervention, and 4weeks after the intervention. The dependent variables were the processes of change, decisional balance, exercise self-efficacy, back-pain, depression and muscle strength. The results of this study were as follows. Processes of change (<.001), pros of decisional balance (<.001), exercise self-efficacy (<.001), back pain (<.001), depression (<.001), muscle strength (<.001) were higher in the experimental group than in the control group right after the program and 4weeks after the programs. The results of this study show that applying the TTM based exercise program increases the use of the change process, increases the exercise self-efficacy, increases the stage of changing the exercise behavior and strengthens the muscular strength by lowering the degree of pain and depression Respectively. The significance of the study was to confirm the effect of continuous exercise by maintaining regular exercise habits by applying exercise program of the transtheoretical model to the chronic low back pain elderly with exercise intention.

Keywords: chronic back pain, elderly, exercise, women

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Authors: L. Bouqbis, H.W. Koyro, M. C. Harrouni, S. Daoud, L. F. Z. Ainlhout, C. I. Kammann

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The application of biochar to soils is becoming more and more common. Its application which is generally reported to improve the physical, chemical, and biological properties of soils, has an indirect effect on soil health and increased crop yields. However, many of the previous results are highly variable and dependent mainly on the initial soil properties, biochar characteristics, and production conditions. In this study, two biochars which are biochar II (BC II) derived from a blend of paper sludge and wheat husks and biochar 005 (BC 005) derived from sewage sludge with a KCl additive, are used, and the physical and chemical properties of BC II are characterized. To determine the potential impact of salt stress and toxic and volatile substances, the second part of this study focused on the effect biochars have on germination of salad (Lactuca sativa L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare), and cress (Lepidium sativum) respectively. Our results indicate that Biochar II showed some unique properties compared to the soil, such as high EC, high content of K, Na, Mg, and low content of heavy metals. Concerning salad and barley germination test, no negative effect of BC II and BC 005 was observed. However, a negative effect of BC 005 at 8% level was revealed. The test of the effect of volatile substances on germination of cress revealed a positive effect of BC II, while a negative effect was observed for BC 005. Moreover, the water holding capacities of biochar-sand mixtures increased with increasing biochar application. Collectively, BC II could be safely used for agriculture and could provide the potential for a better plant growth.

Keywords: biochar, phytotoxic tests, seedlings growth, water holding capacity

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Authors: Nejah Ben Mabrouk, Bassem Jarboui, Habib Chabchoub

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Production and distribution planning is the most important part in supply chain management. In this paper, a NP-hard production-distribution problem for one product over a multi-period horizon is investigated. The aim is to minimize the sum of costs of three items: production setups, inventories and distribution, while determining, for each period, the amount produced, the inventory levels and the delivery trips. To solve this difficult problem, we propose a bi-phase approach based on a Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS). This heuristic is tested on 90 randomly generated instances from the literature, with 20 periods and 50, 100, 200 customers. Computational results show that our approach outperforms existing solution procedures available in the literature

Keywords: logistic, production, distribution, variable neighbourhood search

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Authors: Aysegul Alyamac, Sukru Gulec

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Ankaferd Blood Stopper (ABS) is a plant extract used to stop bleeding caused by injuries and surgical interventions. ABS also involved in wound healing of intestinal mucosal damage due to oxidative stress and inflammation. Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a common chronic disorder of the gastrointestinal tract that causes abdominal pain, diarrhea, and gastrointestinal bleeding, and increases the risk of colon cancer. Inflammation is an essential factor in the development of IBD. The various studies have been performed about the physiological effects of ABS; however, ABS dependent mechanism on colonic inflammation has not been elucidated. Thus, the protective effect of ABS on colonic inflammation was investigated in this study. The Caco-2 and RAW 264.7 murine macrophage cells were used as a model of in vitro colonic inflammation. RAW 264.7 cells were treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for 12 hours to induce the inflammation, and a conditional medium was obtained. Caco-2 cells were treated with 15 µl/ml ABS for 4 hours, then incubated with conditional medium and the cells also were incubated with 15 µl/ml ABS and conditional medium together for 4 hours. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) protein levels were targeted in testing inflammatory condition and its level was significantly increased (25 fold, p<0.001) compared to the control group by using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) method. The COX-2 mRNA level was used as a marker gene to show the possible anti-inflammatory effect of ABS in Caco-2 cells. RAW cells-derived conditional medium significantly (3.3 fold, p<0.001) induced cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) mRNA levels in Caco-2 cells. The pretreatment of Caco-2 cells caused a significant decrease (3.3 fold, p<0.001) in COX-2 mRNA levels relative to conditional medium given group. Furthermore, COX-2 mRNA level was significantly reduced (4,7 fold, p<0.001) in ABS and conditional medium treated group. These results suggest that ABS might have an anti-inflammatory effect in vitro.

Keywords: Ankaferd blood stopper, CaCo-2, colonic inflammation, RAW 264.7

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

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The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: A. A. Purohit, A. Basu, K. A. Chavan, M. D. Kudale

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Many estuarine harbours in the world are facing the problem of siltation in docks, channel entrances, etc. The harbours in India are not an exception and require maintenance dredging to achieve navigable depths for keeping them operable. Hence, dredging is inevitable and is a costly affair. The heavy siltation in docks in well mixed tide dominated estuaries is mainly due to settlement of cohesive sediments in suspension. As such there is a need to have a permanent solution for minimising the siltation in such docks to alter the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation by constructing structures outside the dock. One of such docks on the west coast of India, wherein siltation of about 2.5-3 m/annum prevails, was considered to understand the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation. The dock is situated in such a region where macro type of semi-diurnal tide (range of about 5m) prevails. In order to change the flow field responsible for siltation inside the dock, suitability of Current Deflecting Wall (CDW) outside the dock was studied, which will minimise the sediment exchange rate and siltation in the dock. The well calibrated physical tidal model was used to understand the flow field during various phases of tide for the existing dock in Mumbai harbour. At the harbour entrance where the tidal flux exchanges in/out of the dock, measurements on water level and current were made to estimate the sediment transport capacity. The distorted scaled model (1:400 (H) & 1:80 (V)) of Mumbai area was used to study the tidal flow phenomenon, wherein tides are generated by automatic tide generator. Hydraulic model studies carried out under the existing condition (without CDW) reveal that, during initial hours of flood tide, flow hugs the docks breakwater and part of flow which enters the dock forms number of eddies of varying sizes inside the basin, while remaining part of flow bypasses the entrance of dock. During ebb, flow direction reverses, and part of the flow re-enters the dock from outside and creates eddies at its entrance. These eddies do not allow water/sediment-mass to come out and result in settlement of sediments in dock both due to eddies and more retention of sediment. At latter hours, current strength outside the dock entrance reduces and allows the water-mass of dock to come out. In order to improve flow field inside the dockyard, two CDWs of length 300 m and 40 m were proposed outside the dock breakwater and inline to Pier-wall at dock entrance. Model studies reveal that, during flood, major flow gets deflected away from the entrance and no eddies are formed inside the dock, while during ebb flow does not re-enter the dock, and sediment flux immediately starts emptying it during initial hours of ebb. This reduces not only the entry of sediment in dock by about 40% but also the deposition by about 42% due to less retention. Thus, CDW is a promising solution to significantly reduce siltation in dock.

Keywords: current deflecting wall, eddies, hydraulic model, macro tide, siltation

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Authors: Christopher Godwin Udomboso, Angela Unna Chukwu, Isaac Kwame Dontwi

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In selecting a Statistical Neural Network model, the Network Information Criterion (NIC) has been observed to be sample biased, because it does not account for sample sizes. The selection of a model from a set of fitted candidate models requires objective data-driven criteria. In this paper, we derived and investigated the Adjusted Network Information Criterion (ANIC), based on Kullback’s symmetric divergence, which has been designed to be an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler information of a fitted model. The analyses show that on a general note, the ANIC improves model selection in more sample sizes than does the NIC.

Keywords: statistical neural network, network information criterion, adjusted network, information criterion, transfer function

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Authors: Mohammadreza Nezamirad, Sepideh Amirahmadian, Nasim Sabetpour, Azadeh Yazdi, Amirmasoud Hamedi

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Cavitation inside the diesel injector nozzle is investigated numerically in this study. Reynolds Stress Navier Stokes set of equations (RANS) are utilized to investigate flow behavior inside the nozzle numerically. Moreover, K-ε turbulent model is found to be a better approach comparing to K-ω turbulent model. Winklhofer rectangular shape nozzle is also simulated in order to verify the current numerical scheme, and with, mass flow rate approach, the current solution is verified. Afterward, a six-hole real-size nozzle was simulated, and it was found that among different fuels used in this study with the same condition, diesel fuel provides the largest length of cavitation. Also, it was found that at the same boundary condition, RME fuel leads to the highest value of discharge coefficient and mass flow rate.

Keywords: cavitation, diesel fuel, CFD, real size nozzle, discharge coefficient

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Authors: Vesali Naseh Morteza, Najafi Mohammad Hosein

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The possibility of trading in-game items for real money provides a high economic capacity for online games and turns them into a business model. Nowadays, the market for in-game item purchases and microtransactions or micropayments has been growing increasingly. Since the market should be legal, lawyers and lawmakers around the world have expressed concerns over the legality of online gaming and in-game transactions. The issue is highlighted by the recent emergence of an in-game business model in the name of loot boxes. Similarities between loot boxes gaming and gambling features activities have started a legal debate as to whether loot boxes constitute a form of gambling or whether the game’s use of loot boxes should be considered gambling. Hence, based on the relationship between loot boxes purchasing and problem gambling, the paper investigates the legal effect of the newly emergent phenomenon of loot boxes on online games from the perspective of Iranian law.

Keywords: serious games, loot boxes, online gambling, in-game purchase, virtual items

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Authors: A. Mostafa

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This paper presents a numerical study on determination of ballistic limit velocity (V₅₀) of stainless steel 304 (SS 304) used in manufacturing security screens. The simulated ballistic impact tests were conducted on clamped sheets with different thicknesses using ABAQUS/Explicit nonlinear finite element (FE) package. The ballistic limit velocity was determined using three approaches, namely: numerical tests based on material properties, FE calculated residual velocities and FE calculated residual energies. Johnson-Cook plasticity and failure criterion were utilized to simulate the dynamic behaviour of the SS 304 under various strain rates, while the well-known Lambert-Jonas equation was used for the data regression for the residual velocity and energy model. Good agreement between the investigated numerical methods was achieved. Additionally, the dependence of the ballistic limit velocity on the sheet thickness was observed. The proposed approaches present viable and cost-effective assessment methods of the ballistic performance of SS 304, which will support the development of robust security screen systems.

Keywords: ballistic velocity, stainless steel, numerical approaches, security screen

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Authors: Tariq Aziz, Suresh Kumar, Vikesh Kumar, Sheraz Mustafa, Jhanzeb Marwat

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The paper provides an updated version of volatility spillover among the equity markets of South Asian countries, including Pakistan, India, Srilanka, and Bangladesh. The analysis uses both symmetric and asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models to investigate volatility persistence and leverage effect. The bivariate EGARCH model is used to test for volatility transmission between two equity markets. Weekly data for the period February 2013 to August 2019 is used for empirical analysis. The findings indicate that the leverage effect exists in the equity markets of all the countries except Bangladesh. The volatility spillover from the equity market of Bangladesh to all other countries is negative and significant whereas the volatility of the equity market of Sri-Lanka does influence the volatility of any other country’s equity market. Indian equity market influence only the volatility of the Sri-Lankan equity market; and there is bidirectional volatility spillover between the equity markets of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The findings are important for policy-makers and international investors.

Keywords: volatility spillover, volatility persistence, garch, egarch

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Authors: K. N. Ashna

Abstract:

Lightweight fills are a viable alternative where weak soils such as soft clay, peat, and loose silt are encountered. Materials such as Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) geo-foam, plastics, tire wastes, rubber wastes have been used along with soil in order to obtain a lightweight fill. Out of these, Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) geo-foam has gained wide popularity in civil engineering over the past years due to its wide variety of applications. It is extremely lightweight, durable and is available in various densities to meet the strength requirements. It can be used as backfill behind retaining walls to reduce lateral load, as a fill over soft clay or weak soils to prevent the excessive settlements and to reduce seismic forces. Geo-foam is available in block form as well as beads form. In this project Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) beads of various diameters and varying densities were mixed along with sand to study their lightweight as well as strength properties. Four types of EPS beads were used 1mm, 2mm, 3-7 mm and a mix of 1-7 mm. In this project, EPS beads were varied at .25%, .5%, .75% and 1% by weight of sand. A water content of 10% by weight of sand was added to prevent segregation of the mixture. Unconsolidated Unconfined (UU) tri-axial test was conducted at 100kPa, 200 kPa and 300 kPa and angle of internal friction, and cohesion was obtained. Unit weight of the mix was obtained for a relative density of 65%. The results showed that by increasing the EPS content by weight, maximum deviator stress, unit weight, angle of internal friction and initial elastic modulus decreased. An optimum EPS bead content was arrived at by considering the strength as well as the unit weight. The stress-strain behaviour of the mix was found to be dependent on type of bead, bead content and density of the beads. Finally, regression equations were developed to predict the initial elastic modulus of the mix.

Keywords: expanded polystyrene beads, geofoam, lightweight fills, stress-strain behavior, triaxial test

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Authors: Terefe Alemu

Abstract:

This study is intended to examine Ethiopia’s trade flow determinants and trade potential with G20 countries whether it was overtraded or there is/are trade potential by using trade gravity model. The sources of panel data used were IMF, WDI, United Nations population division, The Heritage Foundation, Washington's No. 1 think tank online website database, online distance calculator, and others for the duration of 2010 to 2019 for 10 consecutive years. The empirical data analyzing tool used was Random effect model (REM), which is effective in estimation of time-invariant data. The empirical data analyzed using STATA software result indicates that Ethiopia has a trade potential with seven countries of G20, whereas Ethiopia overtrade with 12 countries and EU region. The Ethiopia’s and G20 countries/region bilateral trade flow statistically significant/ p<0.05/determinants were the population of G20 countries, growth domestic products of G20 countries, growth domestic products of Ethiopia, geographical distance between Ethiopia and G20 countries. The top five G20 countries exported to Ethiopia were china, United State of America, European Union, India, and South Africa, whereas the top five G20 countries imported from Ethiopia were EU, China, United State of America, Saudi Arabia, and Germany, respectively. Finally, the policy implication were Ethiopia has to Keep the consistence of trade flow with overtraded countries and improve with under traded countries through trade policy revision, and secondly, focusing on the trade determinants to improve trade flow is recommended.

Keywords: trade gravity model, trade determinants, G20, international trade, trade potential

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

Abstract:

In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software

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Authors: Mohit Taneja, Ravi Kiran, S. C. Bose

Abstract:

Entrepreneurs’ role in achieving Sustainable development goals is crucial as the growth potential of any region depends upon the number and the success rate of entrepreneurial firms. This paper is an effort to examine the relationship between Sustainable growth (SG) with Entrepreneurial attitude (EA) and Entrepreneurial intention (EI) in the context of the Indian economy. The mediation effect of EI between EA and SG has been considered. Partial least square (PLS) –Structural Equation Model (SEM) software was used to design the framework. Students enrolled in entrepreneurship courses of higher educational institutes (HEI) of Punjab, Haryana, and the National Capital Region NCR were contacted for data collection. The National Institutional Ranking Framework (NIRF) framework was used in selecting HEIs and data collected from 589 students was considered for analysis. McGee’s multi-dimensional scale for measuring ESE and the scale of Linan & Chen for measuring EI & ES (SG) was used. Results highlight that EA has a strong impact on EI (p≤ 0.001) and EI has a positive and strong relationship with SG (ES) as β value for the same is 0.683 (p≤ 0.001). The current study also reflects the mediating effect of EI among EA and ES, as the results show that the combined β value of both EA and EI (i.e.0.684*0.683= 0.467) is more than the direct influence of EA on ES (β=0.265). EA, with the mediating effect of EI can enhance the opportunity for achieving SG, which suggests that in order to increase the venture success rate and to attain SG, emphasis should be given to EI along with EA. The study has been investigated in three regions of India. Future studies can be extended to other South Asian countries for generalization.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, sustainable growth, entrepreneurship intention, entrepreneurship attitude

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Authors: Harvey Sanchez-Restrepo, Jorge Louca

Abstract:

Equity and education are major focus of government policies around the world due to its relevance for addressing the sustainable development goals launched by Unesco. In this research, we developed a primary analysis of a data set of more than one hundred educational and non-educational factors associated with learning, coming from a census-based large-scale assessment carried on in Ecuador for 1.038.328 students, their families, teachers, and school directors, throughout 2014-2018. Each participating student was assessed by a standardized computer-based test. Learning outcomes were calibrated through item response theory with two-parameters logistic model for getting raw scores that were re-scaled and synthetized by a learning index (LI). Our objective was to develop a network for modelling educational deprivation and analyze the structure of inequality gaps, as well as their relationship with socioeconomic status, school financing, and student's ethnicity. Results from the model show that 348 270 students did not develop the minimum skills (prevalence rate=0.215) and that Afro-Ecuadorian, Montuvios and Indigenous students exhibited the highest prevalence with 0.312, 0.278 and 0.226, respectively. Regarding the socioeconomic status of students (SES), modularity class shows clearly that the system is out of equilibrium: the first decile (the poorest) exhibits a prevalence rate of 0.386 while rate for decile ten (the richest) is 0.080, showing an intense negative relationship between learning and SES given by R= –0.58 (p < 0.001). Another interesting and unexpected result is the average-weighted degree (426.9) for both private and public schools attending Afro-Ecuadorian students, groups that got the highest PageRank (0.426) and pointing out that they suffer the highest educational deprivation due to discrimination, even belonging to the richest decile. The model also found the factors which explain deprivation through the highest PageRank and the greatest degree of connectivity for the first decile, they are: financial bonus for attending school, computer access, internet access, number of children, living with at least one parent, books access, read books, phone access, time for homework, teachers arriving late, paid work, positive expectations about schooling, and mother education. These results provide very accurate and clear knowledge about the variables affecting poorest students and the inequalities that it produces, from which it might be defined needs profiles, as well as actions on the factors in which it is possible to influence. Finally, these results confirm that network analysis is fundamental for educational policy, especially linking reliable microdata with social macro-parameters because it allows us to infer how gaps in educational achievements are driven by students’ context at the time of assigning resources.

Keywords: complex network, educational deprivation, evidence-based policy, large-scale assessments, policy informatics

Procedia PDF Downloads 128