Search results for: soliton period
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5695

Search results for: soliton period

2065 Biogenic Amines Production during RAS Cheese Ripening

Authors: Amr Amer

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Cheeses are among those high-protein-containing foodstuffs in which enzymatic and microbial activities cause the formation of biogenic amines from amino acids decarboxylation. The amount of biogenic amines in cheese may act as a useful indicator of the hygienic quality of the product. In other words, their presence in cheese is related to its spoilage and safety. Formation of biogenic amines during Ras cheese (Egyptian hard cheese) ripening was investigated for 4 months. Three batches of Ras cheese were manufactured using Egyptian traditional method. From each batch, Samples were collected at 1, 7, 15, 30, 60, 90 and 120 days after cheese manufacture. The concentrations of biogenic amines (Tyramine, Histamine, Cadaverine and Tryptamine) were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). There was a significant increased (P<0.05) in Tyramine levels from 4.34± 0.07 mg|100g in the first day of storage till reached 88.77± 0.14 mg|100g at a 120-day of storage. Also, Histamine and Cadaverine levels had the same increased pattern of Tyramine reaching 64.94± 0.10 and 28.28± 0.08 mg|100g in a 120- day of storage, respectively. While, there was a fluctuation in the concentration of Tryptamine level during ripening period as it decreased from 3.24± 0.06 to 2.66± 0.11 mg|100g at 60-day of storage then reached 5.38±0.08 mg|100g in a 120- day of storage. Biogenic amines can be formed in cheese during production and storage: many variables, as pH, salt concentration, bacterial activity as well as moisture, storage temperature and ripening time, play a relevant role in their formation. Comparing the obtained results with the recommended standard by Food and Drug Administration "FDA" (2001), High levels of biogenic amines in various Ras cheeses consumed in Egypt exceeded the permissible value (10 mg%) which seemed to pose a threat to public health. In this study, presence of high concentrations of biogenic amines (Tyramine, Histamine, cadaverine and Tryptamine) in Egyptian Ras cheeses reflects the bad hygienic conditions under which they produced and stored. Accordingly, the levels of biogenic amines in different cheeses should be come in accordance with the safe permissible limit recommended by FDA to ensure human safety.

Keywords: Ras cheese, biogenic amines, tyramine, histamine, cadaverine

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2064 A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study on the Prevalence and Factors Associated with Virological Non-Suppression among HIV-Positive Adult Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Woliso Town, Oromia, Ethiopia

Authors: Teka Haile, Behailu Hawulte, Solomon Alemayehu

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Background: HIV virological failure still remains a problem in HV/AIDS treatment and care. This study aimed to describe the prevalence and identify the factors associated with viral non-suppression among HIV-positive adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Woliso Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 424 HIV-positive patient’s attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Woliso Town during the period from August 25, 2020 to August 30, 2020. Data collected from patient medical records were entered into Epi Info version 2.3.2.1 and exported to SPSS version 21.0 for analysis. Logistic regression analysis was done to identify factors associated with viral load non-suppression, and statistical significance of odds ratios were declared using 95% confidence interval and p-value < 0.05. Results: A total of 424 patients were included in this study. The mean age (± SD) of the study participants was 39.88 (± 9.995) years. The prevalence of HIV viral load non-suppression was 55 (13.0%) with 95% CI (9.9-16.5). Second-line ART treatment regimen (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 8.98, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.64, 30.58) and routine viral load testing (AOR = 0.01, 95% CI: 0.001, 0.02) were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. Conclusion: Virological non-suppression was high, which hinders the achievement of the third global 95 target. The second-line regimen and routine viral load testing were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. It suggests the need to assess the effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs for epidemic control. It also clearly shows the need to decentralize third-line ART treatment for those patients in need.

Keywords: virological non-suppression, HIV-positive, ART, Woliso town, Ethiopia

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2063 Ethnolinguistic Otherness: The Vedda Language (Baasapojja) of Indigenous Adivasi (Veddas) of Dambana in Sri Lanka

Authors: Nimasha Malalasekera

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Working with the indigenous Adivasi (Vedda) community of Dambana in the district of Badulla in Sri Lanka, this research documents linguistic data to address language and cultural endangerment. The ancestral language of Adivasi has undergone sustained restructuration over a long historical period due to its contact with Sinhala, an Indo-Aryan language spoken by the majority Sinhalese. The Vedda language is highly endangered today. At present, all speakers of the Vedda language spoken in Dambana are Adivasi men in the parent generation, who are Sinhala-Vedda bilinguals. Adivasi women and children do not speak the Vedda language but Sinhala in everyday life. Women can understand the Vedda language and would respond to a Vedda language utterance in Sinhala. The use of the Vedda language is largely restricted to self-ascribing Adivasi men who employ it in the context of cultural tourism in Dambana to index ethnolinguistic otherness. Adivasi of Dambana often refers to this distinct linguistic code that they speak as baasapojja or language. This research employs a cooperative model of ethnographic documentation to explore the interrelations between discursive practices, linguistic structures, and linguistic (and broader sociocultural) ideologies in this community. The Vedda language has been previously identified as a dialect of Sinhala or a creole emerging in the contact between Sinhala and the ancestral Vedda language. This paper analyzes the current language endangerment context of bilingual Adivasi members that allows the birth of a mixed language. The aim of this research is to preserve ongoing linguistic innovation among this endangered language speech community. It contributes to the appreciation of creative cultural and linguistic production of a stigmatized minuscule indigenous community of South Asia that strives to assert a distinct linguistic and cultural identity from the dominant populations.

Keywords: Vedda language, language endangerment, mixed languages, indigenous identity

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2062 Impact of Fly Ash on Soil Quality in Semi-Arid Region

Authors: Anjuri Srivastava, Akhouri Nishant Bhanu

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Soil is a natural material with a distinctive form. It is regarded to be a natural source of nutrients and minerals for plants. It meets many of our needs through the crops, trees, and inhabited places that have grown on or underneath it. Productive and rich soil plays a crucial role in both its wealth and well-being. If any external substance changes the soil's composition, it directly impacts the plant that was grown in that soil. If the soil is deficient in one or more essential components, fly ash can be utilized as fertilizer by incorporating it into the soil. This can also increase the porosity of the soil. Fly ash has a sufficient concentration of essential components to promote the growth of plants. The high concentration of elements in fly ash, including C, Na, K, Fe, and Zn, increases crop yields. Hazardous compounds harm plant life as soon as they get into the soil. The US Environmental Protection Agency and other regulatory agencies have found it as non-hazardous. By employing fly ash as a potential fertilizer supplement for degraded soils, the problem of disposing of solid waste can be partially handled. Fly ash's rapid growth can slow down mineralization because it contains a higher proportion of harmful heavy metals. The chemical characteristics, inclusion ratio, and composting process of fly ash have a significant impact on the fly ash compost’s potential to improve soil nutrition. Research institutions and regulatory agencies have been thoroughly investigating fly ash for a long time. Guard cells on plant leaves that accumulate fly ash trigger the regulatory system. Fly ash increases both chemical and physical damage at certain humidity levels. The lengthy sowing period is caused by the high levels of fly ash in the soil, which also slows down seedling germination and growth. For the sake of human health, it is crucial to consider the bioaccumulation of dangerous heavy metals and their necessary concentrations in plant tissues and soil.

Keywords: soil, fly ash, plant, fertilizer, composts

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2061 Social Movements and the Diffusion of Tactics and Repertoires: Activists' Network in Anti-Globalism Movement

Authors: Kyoko Tominaga

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Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs), Social Enterprises and other actors play an important role in political decisions in governments at the international levels. Especially, such organizations’ and activists’ network in civil society is quite important to effect to the global politics. To solve the complex social problems in global era, diverse actors should corporate each other. Moreover, network of protesters is also contributes to diffuse tactics, information and other resources of social movements. Based on the findings from the study of International Trade Fairs (ITFs), the author analyzes the network of activists in anti-globalism movement. This research focuses the transition of 54 activists’ whole network in the “protest event” against 2008 G8 summit in Japan. Their network is examined at the three periods: Before protest event phase, during protest event phase and after event phase. A mixed method is used in this study: the author shows the hypothesis from social network analysis and evaluates that with interview data analysis. This analysis gives the two results. Firstly, the more protesters participate to the various events during the protest event, the more they build the network. After that, active protesters keep their network as well. From interview data, we can understand that the active protesters can build their network and diffuse the information because they communicate with other participants and understand that diverse issues are related. This paper comes to same conclusion with previous researches: protest events activate the network among the political activists. However, some participants succeed to build their network, others do not. “Networked” activists are participated in the various events for short period of time and encourage the diffusion of information and tactics of social movements.

Keywords: social movement, global justice movement, tactics, diffusion

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2060 Alignment and Antagonism in Flux: A Diachronic Sentiment Analysis of Attitudes towards the Chinese Mainland in the Hong Kong Press

Authors: William Feng, Qingyu Gao

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Despite the extensive discussions about Hong Kong’s sentiments towards the Chinese Mainland since the sovereignty transfer in 1997, there has been no large-scale empirical analysis of the changing attitudes in the mainstream media, which both reflect and shape sentiments in the society. To address this gap, the present study uses an optimised semantic-based automatic sentiment analysis method to examine a corpus of news about China from 1997 to 2020 in three main Chinese-language newspapers in Hong Kong, namely Apple Daily, Ming Pao, and Oriental Daily News. The analysis shows that although the Hong Kong press had a positive emotional tone toward China in general, the overall trend of sentiment was becoming increasingly negative. Meanwhile, the alignment and antagonism toward China have both increased, providing empirical evidence of attitudinal polarisation in the Hong Kong society. Specifically, Apple Daily’s depictions of China have become increasingly negative, though with some positive turns before 2008, whilst Oriental Daily News has consistently expressed more favourable sentiments. Ming Pao maintained an impartial stance toward China through an increased but balanced representation of positive and negative sentiments, with its subjectivity and sentiment intensity growing to an industry-standard level. The results provide new insights into the complexity of sentiments towards China in the Hong Kong press and media attitudes in general in terms of the “us” and “them” positioning by explicating the cross-newspaper and cross-period variations using an enhanced sentiment analysis method which incorporates sentiment-oriented and semantic role analysis techniques.

Keywords: media attitude, sentiment analysis, Hong Kong press, one country two systems

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2059 A Tomb Structure in Pursuit of Tradition in 2oth Century Turkey and Its Story; the Tomb of Haci Hâkim Kemal Onsun and His Wife

Authors: Yavuz Arat, Ugur Tuztasi, Mehmet Uysal

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Anatolia has been the host of many civilizations and a site where architectural structures of many cultural layers were interpreted. Most significantly the Turks who settled in Central Asia brought their architectural dynamics and cultural accumulation to Anatolia after the 12th century. The tomb structures first observed in Central Asia under the influence of Islamic faith and Turkish cultural heritage has blossomed under Great Seljuk Empire and with the Anatolian Seljuk Empire these tombs changed both in size and form with rich and beautiful samples from Ahlat to Sivas to Kayseri and Konya. This tomb tradition which started during 13th century has continued during the Ottoman Empire period with some alterations of form and evolved into the rarely observed mausoleum type tombs. The Ottoman tradition of building tombs inside mosque gardens and their forms present the clues of an important burial tradition. However this understanding was abandoned in 20th century Turkey. This tradition was abandoned with regard to legal regulations and health conditions. This study investigates the vestiges of this tradition and its spatial reflections over a sample. The present sample is representative of a tradition that started in 1970s and the case of building tombs inside mosque gardens will be illustrated over the tomb of Hacı Kemal Onsun and his wife which is located in Konya, the capital of the Anatolian Seljuks. The building process of this tomb will be evaluated with regard to burial traditions and architectural stylization.

Keywords: tomb, language of architectural form, Anatolian Seljuk tombs, Ottoman tombs

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2058 Application of Remote Sensing and In-Situ Measurements for Discharge Monitoring in Large Rivers: Case of Pool Malebo in the Congo River Basin

Authors: Kechnit Djamel, Ammarri Abdelhadi, Raphael Tshimang, Mark Trrig

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One of the most important aspects of monitoring rivers is navigation. The variation of discharge in the river generally produces a change in available draft for a vessel, particularly in the low flow season, which can impact the navigable water path, especially when the water depth is less than the normal one, which allows safe navigation for boats. The water depth is related to the bathymetry of the channel as well as the discharge. For a seasonal update of the navigation maps, a daily discharge value is required. Many novel approaches based on earth observation and remote sensing have been investigated for large rivers. However, it should be noted that most of these approaches are not currently able to directly estimate river discharge. This paper discusses the application of remote sensing tools using the analysis of the reflectance value of MODIS imagery and is combined with field measurements for the estimation of discharge. This approach is applied in the lower reach of the Congo River (Pool Malebo) for the period between 2019 and 2021. The correlation obtained between the observed discharge observed in the gauging station and the reflectance ratio time series is 0.81. In this context, a Discharge Reflectance Model (DRM) was developed to express discharge as a function of reflectance. This model introduces a non-contact method that allows discharge monitoring using earth observation. DRM was validated by field measurements using ADCP, in different sections on the Pool Malebo, over two different periods (dry and wet seasons), as well as by the observed discharge in the gauging station. The observed error between the estimated and measured discharge values ranges from 1 to 8% for the ADCP and from (1% to 11%) for the gauging station. The study of the uncertainties will give us the possibility to judge the robustness of the DRM.

Keywords: discharge monitoring, navigation, MODIS, empiric, ADCP, Congo River

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2057 Effects of Audit Quality and Corporate Governance on Earnings Management of Quoted Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria

Authors: Joel S. Akintayo, Ramat T. Salman

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The stakeholders’ pressure on corporate managers to maintain firm’s profitability has created economic incentives for management to engage in earnings management practices. Therefore, this study examines the effects of audit quality and corporate governance on earnings management of quoted deposit money banks (DMBs) in Nigeria. This study specifically investigates the influence of audit tenure, audit fee, board independence, and board size on earnings management of DMBs. Explanatory research design was employed in carrying out the study while secondary data were sourced from the annual reports and accounts of all the 15 quoted DMBs in Nigerian Stock Exchange as at December 31, 2015 for a period of 10 years covering from 2006 to 2015. The data obtained for the study were analyzed using panel regression analysis approach. The findings reveal that board independence has a negative significant effect on earnings management at a 5% level of significance (p=0.002), while audit fee has a positive significant effect on earnings management at a 5% level of significance (p=0.013) and audit tenure has a negative significant effect on earnings management of DMBs at a 5% level of significance (p=0.003). Surprisingly, board size was statistically not significant at a 5% level of significance (p=0.086). The study concludes that high audit quality and sound corporate governance could improve the earnings quality of DMBs. Hence, the study recommends that the authorities saddled with the responsibility of banking supervision in Nigeria such the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and CBN to advise the National Assembly in Nigeria to pass into law the three years professional requirement for audit tenure.

Keywords: audit quality, audit tenure, audit fee, board independence, corporate governance, earnings management

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2056 Wellness Tourism in Baluwarti Tourism Village, Surakarta City

Authors: Deria Adi Wijaya, Amad Saeroji, Jimmi Sandi P., Nanang Wijayanto

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Tourism and the creative economy are combinations that can become a sustainable source of welfare that can boost the economy so as to increase the country's foreign exchange. Therefore the development of the tourism sector is one of the priorities in President Joko Widodo's leadership framework for the 2019-2024 period. Entering the current pandemic, each party is required to be able to implement strict health protocols to slow the rate of SARS-Cov2 infection, or what is known as the coronavirus, but on the other hand, the need to turn the wheels of the economy must continue. Therefore, an effort is needed to develop tourism activities that are full of experiences that add health benefits. Anticipating this, the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy collaborated with the Ministry of Health to offer an innovative development model, namely wellness tourism. The development of wellness tourism is an alternative that can make a positive contribution to the development of Indonesian tourism during the pandemic. This research seeks to synergize efforts to develop national tourism into the regional sphere; in this case, Baluwarti Tourism Village, which is located within the walls of the Surakarta Sunanate Palace, has the potential to be developed into a wellness tourism destination in Surakarta City. Considering that a village that is in the immediate vicinity of a palace certainly has a variety of potential attractions for royal wellness tourism. The main objectives of this study are 1) to identify the potential for palace-style wellness tourism in Baluwarti Tourism Village; 2) to formulate development in the form of tour packages in Baluwarti Tourism Village. Of course, the development of the wellness tour package is still based on local wisdom, namely a tour package that raises local potential as a palace-style wellness tourism attraction that can improve the economy of the local people through the tourism sector in the post-pandemic era.

Keywords: potential, wellness tourism, Baluwarti Tourism Village, Surakarta Sunanate Palace, Surakarta City

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2055 Protective Impact of Some Natural Extracts Against Acute Hepatotoxicity in Wistar Rats: DNA Protecting, Antioxidant and Anti-Inflammatory Effects

Authors: Yara Mohamed Taha, Mohamed Ali El Desouky, Heba Kamal Abdel Hakim, Maha Hanafy Mahmoud

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Hepatotoxicity due to drugs and toxic chemicals constitutes a crucial health problem nowadays. Medicinal plants are widely used recently for protecting against many liver disorders and inflammatory conditions. This study aims to evaluate hepatoprotective impact of green tea extract (GTE), rosemary extract (RE) and rosmarinic acid (RA) against hepatotoxins; ferric nitrilotriacetate (Fe-NTA) and diethylnitrosamine (DEN) in rats. Five groups of male Wistar rats were included; one control negative, while the other groups were treated intraperitoneally with DEN as 160 mg.kg-1 b.w. on 15th day and Fe-NTA as 5 mg.kg-1 b.w. on 33rd day. One of them was control positive. The other three groups were pre-administered with daily protective oral doses of either 200 mg.kg-1 b.w. of RE or 1 g.kg- 1 b.w. of GTE or 50 mg.kg-1 b.w. of RA two weeks prior to DEN exposure and continued till the end of the experimental period. The obtained data revealed a highly significant increase of MDA, 8-OHdG, DNA damage percent, a significant depletion of GSH and elevated Gr-1 protein expression in hepatocytes with liver tissue histopathological changes of rats exposed to DEN+Fe-NTA. Pre-administration of protective doses of RE, GTE and RA to DEN+Fe-NTA treated rats could normalize the altered biochemical, histopathological and immunohistochemical parameters. In conclusion, RE, GTE and RA showed a hepatoprotective effect against liver toxicity induced by DEN+Fe-NTA, with the best antioxidant and anti-inflammatory impact were for RA and GTE. Therefore, the current study declared that rosemary, green tea and products enriched with rosmarinic acid should be involved daily in diet of people who are exposed to chemicals and environmental toxins to protect themselves from hepatotoxicity.

Keywords: hepatotoxicity, diethylnitrosamine and ferric nitrilotriacetate, rosemary extract (RE), green tea extract (GTE), rosmarinic acid (RA)

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2054 Rescaled Range Analysis of Seismic Time-Series: Example of the Recent Seismic Crisis of Alhoceima

Authors: Marina Benito-Parejo, Raul Perez-Lopez, Miguel Herraiz, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Cesar Martinez

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Persistency, long-term memory and randomness are intrinsic properties of time-series of earthquakes. The Rescaled Range Analysis (RS-Analysis) was introduced by Hurst in 1956 and modified by Mandelbrot and Wallis in 1964. This method represents a simple and elegant analysis which determines the range of variation of one natural property (the seismic energy released in this case) in a time interval. Despite the simplicity, there is complexity inherent in the property measured. The cumulative curve of the energy released in time is the well-known fractal geometry of a devil’s staircase. This geometry is used for determining the maximum and minimum value of the range, which is normalized by the standard deviation. The rescaled range obtained obeys a power-law with the time, and the exponent is the Hurst value. Depending on this value, time-series can be classified in long-term or short-term memory. Hence, an algorithm has been developed for compiling the RS-Analysis for time series of earthquakes by days. Completeness time distribution and locally stationarity of the time series are required. The interest of this analysis is their application for a complex seismic crisis where different earthquakes take place in clusters in a short period. Therefore, the Hurst exponent has been obtained for the seismic crisis of Alhoceima (Mediterranean Sea) of January-March, 2016, where at least five medium-sized earthquakes were triggered. According to the values obtained from the Hurst exponent for each cluster, a different mechanical origin can be detected, corroborated by the focal mechanisms calculated by the official institutions. Therefore, this type of analysis not only allows an approach to a greater understanding of a seismic series but also makes possible to discern different types of seismic origins.

Keywords: Alhoceima crisis, earthquake time series, Hurst exponent, rescaled range analysis

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2053 Cytotoxic Activity against MCF-7 Breast Cancer Cells and Antioxidant Property of Aqueous Tempe Extracts from Extended Fermentation

Authors: Zatil Athaillah, Anastasia Devi, Dian Muzdalifah, Wirasuwasti Nugrahani, Linar Udin

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During tempe fermentation, some chemical changes occurred and they contributed to sensory, appearance, and health benefits of soybeans. Many studies on health properties of tempe have specialized on their isoflavones. In this study, other components of tempe, particularly water soluble chemicals, was investigated for their biofunctionality. The study was focused on the ability to suppress MCF-7 breast cancer cell growth and antioxidant activity, as expressed by DPPH radical scavenging activity, total phenols and total flavonoids, of the water extracts. Fermentation time of tempe was extended up to 120 hr to increase the possibility to find the functional components. Extraction yield and soluble nitrogen content were also quantified as accompanying data. Our findings suggested that yield of water extraction of tempe increased as fermentation was extended up to 120 hr, except for a slight decrease at 72 hr. Water extracts of tempe showed inhibition of MCF-7 breast cancer cell growth, as shown by lower IC50 values when compared to control (unfermented soybeans). Among the varied fermentation timescales, 60-hr period showed the highest activity (IC50 of 8.7 ± 4.95 µg/ml). The anticancer activity of extracts obtained from different fermentation time was positively correlated with total soluble nitrogens, but less relevant with antioxidant data. During 48-72 hr fermentation, at which cancer suppression activity was significant, the antioxidant properties from the three assays were not higher than control. These findings indicated that water extracts of tempe from extended fermentation could inhibit breast cancer cell growth but further study to determine the mechanism and compounds that play important role in the activity should be conducted.

Keywords: tempe, anticancer, antioxidant, phenolic compounds

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2052 Breastfeeding Knowledge, Attitudes and Practice: A Cross-Sectional Study among a Sample of Tunisian Mothers

Authors: Arfaoui Emna, Nouira Mariem

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Background and aims: Breastfeeding is the reference feeding for a child, especially during the first months of life. It is not widespread in many countries due to many factors. There has been a decline in exclusive breastfeeding (EB) practice, particularly in the middle- and low-income countries, i.e., Tunisia. The aim of our study was to describe the knowledge, attitudes, and practice of a sample of Tunisian mothers toward breastfeeding. Methods: It was a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted during the year 2022 over a period of two months in three health structures in the north of Tunisia among mothers of infants aged 2 to 18 months. Levels of mothers’ knowledge (low/moderate/high) were determined using a score ranging from 0 to 11 points. EB was defined as the proportion of infants who were exclusively breastfed during the first six months of life. Results: A total of 180 women with a mean age of 33±4.9 years were included. The average knowledge score was equal to 6.4 ±1.5 points, with extremes ranging from 3 to 11 points. Most of the respondents had a moderate knowledge level (44.4%). More than half of surveyed mothers (66.1%) thought that breastfeeding deforms breasts, and 16.7% thought that breastfeeding is specific to women who do not work. Breastfeeding experience during the first week of life was considered difficult in 70% of cases. The prevalence of EB up to 6 months of age was equal to 16.4% [10.8-23.2]. The main reported obstacles during breastfeeding practice were having an insufficient quantity of breast milk (18.3%) and child difficulties with sucking (12.8%), and having pain in the breast while breastfeeding (12.80%). Conclusion: Our results highlighted the insufficient level of knowledge and a low prevalence of EB in our study population. Improving mothers’ knowledge and promoting EB practice is needed. Implementing health education strategies involving healthcare workers, who represent a main actor in education and breastfeeding promotion, is very important to reach a satisfactory frequency for EB.

Keywords: breastfeeding, practices, knowledge, Tunisia

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2051 Value of Unilateral Spinal Anaesthesia For Hip Fracture Surgery In The Elderly (75 Cases)

Authors: Fedili Benamar, Beloulou Mohamed Lamine, Ouahes Hassane, Ghattas Samir

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Background and aims: While in Western countries, unilateral spinal anesthesia has been widely practiced for a long time, it remains little known in the local anesthesia community, and has not been the object of many studies. However, it is a simple, practical and effective technique. Our objective was to evaluate this practice in emergency anesthesia management in frail patients and to compare it with conventional spinal anesthesia. Methods: This is a prospective, observational, comparative study between hypobaric unilateral and conventional spinal anaesthesia for hip fracture surgery carried out in the operating room of the university military hospital of Staoueli. The work was spread over of 12-month period from 2019 to 2020. The parameters analyzed were hemodynamic variations, vasopressor use, block efficiency, postoperative adverse events, and postoperative morphine consumption. Results: -75 cases (mean age 72±14 years) -Group1= 41 patients (54.6%) divided into (ASA1=14.6% ASA2=60.98% ASA3=24.39%) single shoot spinal anaesthesia -Group2= 34 patients (45.3%) divided into (ASA1=2.9%, ASA2=26.4% ASA3=61.7%, ASA4=8.8%) unilateral hypobaric spinal anesthesia. -Hemodynamic variations were more severe in group 1 (51% hypotension) compared to 30% in group 2 RR=1.69 and odds ratio=2.4 -these variations were more marked in the ASA3 subgroup (group 1=70% hypotension versus group 2=30%) with an RR=2.33 and an odds ratio=5.44 -39% of group 1 required vasoactive drugs (15mg +/- 11) versus 32% of group 2 (8mg+/- 6.49) - no difference in the use of morphine in post-op. Conclusions: Within the limits of the population studied, this work demonstrates the clinical value of unilateral spinal anesthesia in ortho-trauma surgery in the frail patient.

Keywords: spinal anaesthesia, vasopressor, morphine, hypobaric unilateral spinal anesthesia, ropivacaine, hip surgery, eldery, hemodynamic

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2050 Periodontal Soft Tissue Sculpturing and Use of Interim Appliance for Rehabilitation of Anterior Edentulousness: Case Report

Authors: Hande Yesil, Seda Aycan Altan, M. Vehbi Bal, Alper Uyar, O. Cumhur Sipahi

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Purpose: Fixed partial dentures (FPDs) must fulfill functional requirements such as phonetics, chewing efficiency and esthetics especially in the anterior region. A convex type tissue surface is usually recommended for pontics of FPDs. That pontic design also provides suitable oral hygiene and ease of cleaning. However, high esthetic requirements and correct emergence profile are not always achievable because of the convex shape of adjacent soft tissues. Therefore, the ovate type pontic which fulfills the high esthetic demands of the patients may be a good alternative to the modified ridge lap pontic design. Clinical Report: A female patient referred with the complaint of anterior upper edentulousness. In the oral examination it was determined that teeth 11, 12, 21, 22 were deficient. A thick and convex gingival tissue that may cause aesthetic problems was also observed.. Periodontal augmentation surgery was performed to ensure proper papillary configuration and gingival contour. An interim removable partial denture (IRPD) which applied pressure to operated gingival tissues was fabricated postoperatively. The IRPD was used for 4 weeks and after completion of tissue sculpting, the permanent FPD with an ovate pontic was fabricated and cemented. After a follow-up period of 6 months, not any esthetical and hygienic problem was detected and the patient was satisfied with her prosthesis. Conclusion: It was concluded that shaping of gingival contours with IRPD and use of a FPD with ovate pontic fulfills all esthetic and hygienic requirements.

Keywords: interim appliance, ovate pontic, tissue sculpturing, fixed partial denture

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2049 Full-Scale Test of a Causeway Embankment Supported by Raft-Aggregate Column Foundation on Soft Clay Deposit

Authors: Tri Harianto, Lawalenna Samang, St. Hijraini Nur, Arwin

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Recently, a port development is constructed in Makassar city, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Makassar city is located in lowland area that dominated by soft marine clay deposit. A two kilometers causeway construction was built which is situated on the soft clay layer. In order to investigate the behavior of causeway embankment, a full-scale test was conducted of high embankment built on a soft clay deposit. The embankment with 3,5 m high was supported by two types of reinforcement such as raft and raft-aggregate column foundation. Since the ground was undergoing consolidation due to the preload, the raft and raft-aggregate column foundations were monitored in order to analyze the vertical ground movement by inducing the settlement of the foundation. In this study, two types of foundation (raft and raft-aggregate column) were tested to observe the effectiveness of raft-aggregate column compare to raft foundation in reducing the settlement. The settlement monitored during the construction stage by using the settlement plates, which is located in the center and toe of the embankment. Measurements were taken every day for each embankment construction stage (4 months). In addition, an analytical calculation was conducted in this study to compare the full-scale test result. The result shows that the raft-aggregate column foundation significantly reduces the settlement by 30% compared to the raft foundation. A raft-aggregate column foundation also reduced the time period of each loading stage. The Good agreement of analytical calculation compared to the full-scale test result also found in this study.

Keywords: full-scale, preloading, raft-aggregate column, soft clay

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2048 The Evolution of Spatio-Temporal Patterns of New-Type Urbanization in the Central Plains Economic Region in China

Authors: Sun fang, Zhang Wenxin

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This paper establishes an evaluation index system for spatio-temporal patterns of urbanization, with the county as research unit. We use the Entropy Weight method, coefficient variance, the Theil index and ESDA-GIS to analyze spatial patterns and evolutionary characteristics of New-Type Urbanization in the Central Plains Economic Region (CPER) between 2000 and 2011. Results show that economic benefit, non-agricultural employment level and level of market development are the most important factors influencing the level of New-Type Urbanization in the CPER; overall regional differences in New-Type Urbanization have declined while spatial correlations have increased from 2000 to 2011. The overall spatial pattern has changed little, however; differences between the western and eastern areas of the CPER are clear, and the pattern of a strong west and weak east did not change significantly over the study period. Areas with high levels of New-Type Urbanization were mostly distributed along the Beijing-Guangzhou and LongHai Railways on both sides, a new influx of urbanization was tightly clustered around ZhengZhou in the Central Henan Urban Agglomeration, but this trend was found to be weakening slightly. The level of New-Type Urbanization in municipal districts was found to be much higher than it was in the county generally. Provincial borders experienced a lower rate of growth and a lower level of New-Type Urbanization than did any other areas, consistently forming clusters of cold spots and sub-cold spots. The analysis confirms that historical development, location, and diffusion effects of urban agglomeration are the main drivers of changes in New-Type Urbanization patterns in CPER.

Keywords: new-type urbanization, spatial pattern, central plains economic region, spatial evolution

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2047 The Development of Nursing Model for Pregnant Women to Prevention of Early Postpartum Hemorrhage

Authors: Wadsana Sarakarn, Pimonpan Charoensri, Baliya Chaiyara

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Objectives: To study the outcomes of the developed nursing model to prevent early postpartum hemorrhage (PPH). Materials and Methods: The analytical study was conducted in Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital during October 1st, 2015, until May 31st, 2017. After review the prevalence, risk factors, and outcomes of postpartum hemorrhage of the parturient who gave birth in Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital, the nursing model was developed under research regulation of Kemmis&McTaggart using 4 steps of operating procedures: 1) analyzing problem situation and gathering 2) creating the plan 3) noticing and performing 4) reflecting the result of the operation. The nursing model consisted of the screening tools for risk factors associated with PPH, the clinical nursing practice guideline (CNPG), and the collecting bag for measuring postpartum blood loss. Primary outcome was early postpartum hemorrhage. Secondary outcomes were postpartum hysterectomy, maternal mortality, personnel’s practice, knowledge, and satisfaction of the nursing model. The data were analyzed by using content analysis for qualitative data and descriptive statistics for quantitative data. Results: Before using the nursing model, the prevalence of early postpartum hemorrhage was under estimated (2.97%). There were 5 cases of postpartum hysterectomy and 2 cases of maternal death due to postpartum hemorrhage. During the study period, there was 22.7% prevalence of postpartum hemorrhage among 220 pregnant women who were vaginally delivered at Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital. No maternal death or postpartum hysterectomy was reported after using the nursing model. Among 16 registered nurses at the delivery room who evaluated using of the nursing model, they reported the high level of practice, knowledge, and satisfaction Conclusion: The nursing model for the prevention of early PPH is effective to decrease early PPH and other serious complications.

Keywords: the development of a nursing model, prevention of postpartum hemorrhage, pregnant women, postpartum hemorrhage

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2046 Prostitution in Colonial Bengal: Autobiographical Articulations and Fictional Representations

Authors: Aparna Bandyopadhyay

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The proposed paper will examine how prostitution produced a vast corpus of literature in colonial Bengal. This corpus included autobiographical accounts by prostitutes themselves. While the authenticity of some of these has, at times, been doubted by contemporary observers, the sheer magnitude of such narrative prose demands critical attention. Many of these autobiographical narratives focused on the prostitute’s early life within respectable society and then proceeded to delineate the transgressions and the inescapable chain of circumstances that eventually rendered her a prostitute. Significantly, these serve to corroborate the findings of official investigations regarding the circumstances that led upper-caste Hindu women in Bengal to embrace prostitution in this period. The literary corpus that dwelt on prostitution also included a vast volume of fiction penned by celebrated writers. These foregrounded a prostitute as the central protagonist, telling the life-stories of prostitutes and the circumstances that made them what they were. Novels and short stories often represented the prostitute as an affective being – an individual capable of deep emotions despite her profession. She was seldom a person who had voluntarily embraced prostitution. She was always a figure of helplessness and suffering, a woman whose desire to love and be loved transcended the carnality of her livelihood. She was an outcast, but she experienced the entire repertoire of emotions experienced by her respectable counterparts. The proposed paper will examine the trends and characteristics of the available repertoire of prostitute-oriented literature in late colonial Bengal. It will begin by focusing on the existing perspectives on the origins of prostitution in late colonial Bengal. It will proceed to discuss the literary corpus supposedly penned by prostitutes themselves and then focus on the manner in which some of the stalwarts of high literature represented the prostitute in their literary creations.

Keywords: emotions, literature, prostitution, transgression

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2045 Evaluating the Management of Febrile Infants (Less than 90 Days) Presenting to Tallaght Ed- Completed Audit Cycle

Authors: Amel Osman, Stewart McKenna

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Aim: Fever may present as the sole sign of a serious underlying infection in young infants. Febrile Infants aged less than 90 days are at an elevated susceptibility to invasive bacterial infections, thus presenting a challenge in ensuring the appropriate management of these cases. This study aims to ensure strict adherence to NICE guidelines for the management of fever in infants between 0 and 90 days presenting to Tallaght Hospital ED. A comprehensive audit, followed by a re-audit, was conducted to enhance the quality of care delivered to these patients. In accordance with NICE guidelines, all febrile infants should undergo blood tests. Additionally, LP should be performed in all neonates under 28 days, infants displaying signs of illness, and those with WCC below 5 or above 15. Method: A retrospective case review was performed, encompassing all patients aged between 0 to 90 days who presented with fever at Tallaght ED. Data retrieval was conducted from electronic records on two separate occasions, six months apart. The evaluation encompassed the assessment of body temperature as well as both partial and full septic workups. Results: Over the study period, 150 infants presented to the ED with fever in the initial audit, and 120 in the re-audit. In the first study, 81 patients warranted a full septic workup as per NICE, but only 48 received it. Conversely, 40 patients met criteria for a partial septic workup, with 12 undergoing blood tests. In the second study, 73 patients qualified for a full septic workup, of which 52 were completed. Additionally, 27 patients were indicated for a partial workup, with 20 undergoing blood tests. Conclusion: Managing febrile infants under three months of age presenting to Tallaght ED remains a persistent challenge, underscoring the need for continuous educational initiatives to guarantee that these patients receive the requisite assessments and treatments.

Keywords: infants, fever, septic workup, tallaght

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2044 Anti-Corruption Education in Ukraine during Martial Law and in Lithuania during the State of Emergency

Authors: Kateryna Kulyk

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Anti-corruption education is an integral element of the corruption prevention mechanism of any state. Effective implementation of anti-corruption policy is impossible without awareness-raising activities. Information campaigns should target different social groups and aim to reduce tolerance to any form of corruption. Today, Ukraine and Lithuania have all the necessary infrastructure to actively work in this direction. Anti-corruption measures and building a society resistant to corruption are particularly important in the context of martial law in Ukraine and the state of emergency in Lithuania, as these conditions increase the risks of corrupt practices. To implement this area of activity, it is recommended to actively involve all state and local authorities, business representatives, non-governmental organisations, and all interested citizens. As of today, educational institutions, specialised anti-corruption bodies, and the public are already involved in this process. The purpose of the research is to draw public attention to the need and importance of obtaining basic knowledge on combating and preventing corruption, even in a state of emergency or martial law. This topic remains relevant even during the period of a state of emergency or martial law, as the risk of corrupt practices increases during these periods. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of the anti-corruption policies of Ukraine and Lithuania, sociological research, and our own survey of anti-corruption experts. Legislation, reports of anti-corruption bodies and civil society organisations were analysed. We also conducted an anonymous survey of 13 anti-corruption experts on the most important anti-corruption measures in the countries studied. The main contribution of the research is to draw attention to the problem of low awareness of the population of countries about the importance of anti-corruption education as one of the necessary conditions for reducing corruption practices.

Keywords: corruption, prevention and combating of corruption, education, anti-corruption education, martial law, state of emergency

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2043 Power Energy Management For A Grid-Connected PV System Using Rule-Base Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Nousheen Hashmi, Shoab Ahmad Khan

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Active collaboration among the green energy sources and the load demand leads to serious issues related to power quality and stability. The growing number of green energy resources and Distributed-Generators need newer strategies to be incorporated for their operations to keep the power energy stability among green energy resources and micro-grid/Utility Grid. This paper presents a novel technique for energy power management in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic with energy storage system under set of constraints including weather conditions, Load Shedding Hours, Peak pricing Hours by using rule-based fuzzy smart grid controller to schedule power coming from multiple Power sources (photovoltaic, grid, battery) under the above set of constraints. The technique fuzzifies all the inputs and establishes fuzzify rule set from fuzzy outputs before defuzzification. Simulations are run for 24 hours period and rule base power scheduler is developed. The proposed fuzzy controller control strategy is able to sense the continuous fluctuations in Photovoltaic power generation, Load Demands, Grid (load Shedding patterns) and Battery State of Charge in order to make correct and quick decisions.The suggested Fuzzy Rule-based scheduler can operate well with vague inputs thus doesn’t not require any exact numerical model and can handle nonlinearity. This technique provides a framework for the extension to handle multiple special cases for optimized working of the system.

Keywords: photovoltaic, power, fuzzy logic, distributed generators, state of charge, load shedding, membership functions

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2042 The Study of Impact Continuous and High-Intensity Interval Training on Some of Spirometry Indices Following in Young Non-Athletic Men

Authors: Mohsen Ghanbarzadeh

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Context: The study examines the impact of continuous and high-intensity interval training on spirometry indices in young non-athletic men, focusing on respiratory inflammation post-exercise. Research Aim: To investigate the effect of intense aerobic interval exercise on pulmonary indices in non-athletes, specifically exploring respiratory inflammation. Methodology: Semi-experimental design with random subject selection and spirometer measurements pre and post intense aerobic exercise. Findings: Spirometry indices decreased post-acute aerobic exercise, indicating potential temporary inflammation in the respiratory tract, likely due to tracheal inflammation causing air flow restriction. Theoretical Importance: The study sheds light on the temporary impact of intense aerobic exercise on respiratory function, highlighting the relationship between exercise intensity and pulmonary indices. Data Collection: Spirometry indices (VC, FVC, FEV1) were measured before and after exercise in 30 young male participants. Analysis Procedures: Statistical analysis showed a non-significant decrease in spirometry indices post-exercise, with p-values indicating no significant differences. Questions Addressed: The study addressed whether intense aerobic exercise leads to respiratory inflammation and the subsequent impact on pulmonary indices in non-athletes. Conclusion: Intense aerobic exercise can lead to temporary respiratory inflammation, reflected in decreased spirometry indices, which normalize after rest. The study adds insights into the effects of intense aerobic exercise on pulmonary function in non-athletes. To enhance the methodology, considering a larger sample size and longer follow-up period could provide more robust findings.

Keywords: HIIT, spirometric, training, non-athletic

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2041 Management of Distillery Spentwash to Enhance Productivity of Dryland Crops and Reduce Environmental Pollution: A Case Study in Southern Dry Zone of Karnataka, India

Authors: A. Sathish, N. N. Lingaraju, K. N. Geetha, C. A. Srinivasamurthy, S. Bhaskar

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Under dryland conditions, it is observed that the soil organic matter is low due to low organic carbon content due to poor management with less use of inputs. On the other hand, disposal of sugar industry waste, i.e., spentwash is a major concern with limited space for land based treatment and disposal which causes environmental pollution. Spentwash is also a resource that can be applied for productive uses since it contains nutrients that have the potential for use in agriculture. The disposal of spent wash may lead to environmental pollution. Hence as an alternative mechanism, it was applied once to dry lands, and the experiments were conducted from 2012-13 to 2016-17 in kharif season in Maddur Taluk, Mandya District, Karnataka State, India. The study conducted was in 93 different farmers field (maize-11, finger millet-80 & horsegram-14). Spentwash was applied at the rate of 100 m³ ha⁻¹ before sowing of the crops. The results showed that yield of dryland crops like finger millet, horse gram and maize was recorded 14.75 q ha⁻¹, 6 q ha⁻¹ and 31.00 q ha⁻¹, respectively and the yield increase to an extent of 10-25 per cent with one time application of spentwash to dry lands compared to farmers practice, i.e., chemical fertilizer application. The higher yield may be attributed to slow and steady release of nutrients by spentwash throughout the crop growth period. In addition, the growth promoting and other beneficial substances present in spentwash might have also helped in better plant growth and yield. The soil sample analysis after harvest of the crops indicate acidic to neutral pH, EC of 0.11 dSm⁻¹ and Na of 0.20 C mol (P⁺) kg⁻¹ in the normal range which are not harmful. Hence, it can be applied to drylands at least once in 3 years which enhances yield as well as reduces environmental pollution.

Keywords: dryland crops, pollution, sugar industry waste, spentwash

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2040 Investigating Introvert and Extrovert University Students’ Perception of the Use of Interactive Digital Tools in a Face-To-Face ESP Class

Authors: Eunice Tang

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The main focus of this study is investigating introvert and extrovert university students’ perception of the use of interactive digital tools (such as Padlet and Mentimeter) in a face-to-face English for Specific Purposes (ESP) class after all classes in the university had been switched to online mode for three semesters. The subjects of the study were business students from three ESP classes at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. The basic tool for data collection was an anonymous online survey, which included 3 required multiple-choice questions and 3 open questions (2 required; 1 optional) about the effects of interactive digital tools on their amount of contribution to the class discussions, their perception of the role of interactive digital tools to the sharing of ideas and whether the students considered themselves introvert or extrovert. The online survey will be emailed to all 54 students in the three ESP classes and subjected to a three-week data collection period. The survey results will then be analyzed qualitatively, particularly on the effect the use of interactive digital tools had on the amount of contribution to the class among introvert and extrovert students, their perception of a language class with and without digital tools and most importantly, the implication to educators about how interactive digital tools can be used (or not) to cater for the needs of the introvert and extrovert students. The pandemic has given educators various opportunities to use interactive digital tools in class, especially in an online environment. It is interesting for educators to explore the potential of such tools when classes are back face-to-face. This research thus offers the students’ perspective on using interactive digital tools in a face-to-face classroom. While a lot has been said about introverted students responding positively to digital learning online, the student's perception of their own personality collected in the survey and the digital impact tools have on their contribution to class may shed some light on the potential of interactive digital tools in a post-pandemic era.

Keywords: psychology for language learning, interactive digital tools, personality-based investigation, ESP

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2039 Factors Associated with Stunting at Birth and at 6 Weeks in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa

Authors: Maretha Le Roux, Corinna Walsh, Mariette M. Nel

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Introduction: The first 1000 days from conception to 24 months, is a critical period for healthy growth and development. In South Africa, stunting is a major public health issue with significant health consequences. We determined associations between demographic, health and anthropometric indicators of mothers and their infants. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in all districts in the Northern Cape. All mothers with 5-7 week old babies visiting PHC facilities could participate. A questionnaire was completed in a structured interview with each mother. Weight and length of the baby at birth and at 6 weeks were used to determine stunting, while weight and height of the mother were measured for body mass index (BMI). Results: Eight hundred questionnaires were completed in 92 facilities. The median age of mothers was 26 years (range 10-46 years), and 44,9% were married. Almost 40% relied on a government grant as main source of income. Two-thirds (64,9%) had not planned the pregnancy, and 19.4% had a Caesarian section. Although 79% breastfed exclusively, more than a quarter (26,1%) smoked cigarettes or used snuff during pregnancy, while 9,4% drank alcohol. At birth, 17.7% of boys and 13.0% of girls were stunted (height-for-age below -2SD from the WHO reference values), while at 6 weeks this had increased to 30.8% of boys and 14.1% of girls. In terms of mothers, 25,4% were classified as obese and 24,6% as overweight at 6 weeks. Compared to babies that were not stunted, significantly more babies of mothers that were older, overweight, used ART, relied on a grant and smoked/snuffed during pregnancy were stunted. Conclusion: To address stunting, interventions aimed at encouraging healthy lifestyles with the emphasis on maintaining a healthy weight, healthy eating and smoking cessation before pregnancy are urgently required.

Keywords: growth, health, South Africa, stunting

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2038 Sudden Death in Young Patients: A Study of 312 Autopsy Cases

Authors: N. Haj Salem, M. Belhadj, S. Ben Jomâa, S. Saadi, R. Dhouieb, A. Chadly

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Introduction: Sudden death in young is seen as a dramatic phenomenon requiring knowledge of its impact and determining their causes. Aim: We aim to study the epidemiological characteristics of sudden death in young, and to discuss the mechanism and the importance of autopsy in these situations. Material and methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using autopsy data from the department of forensic medicine at the University Hospital of Fattouma Bourguiba, Monastir-Tunisia. A review of all autopsies performed during 23 years was done. In each case, clinical information and circumstances of death were obtained. We have included all sudden death in persons aged between 1 year and 35 years for the male and from one year to 45 years for female. We collected 312 cases of sudden death during the studied period. The collected data were processed using SPSS 20. The significance level was set at 0.05. Results: Thirty-two cases of cardiac ischemic sudden death have been collected. Myocardial infarction was the second cause of sudden death in young patients. There was a male predominance. The most affected subjects were aged between 25-45 years. The death occurred more frequently at rest. Coronary artery disease has been discovered in twenty-four cases (75%). A severe coronary artery disease was observed in two children with medical history of familial hypercholesterolemia. The myocardial infarction occurred in healthy coronary arteries in eight cases. An anomalous course of coronary arteries, in particular, myocardial bridging, was found in eight cases (25%). Toxicological screening was negative in all cases. Second cause of death was hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Neurological and respiratory causes of death were implicated respectively in 10% and 15%. Conclusion: Identifying epidemiological characteristics of sudden death in this population is important for guiding approaches to prevention that must be based on dietary hygienic measures and the control of cardiovascular risk factors.

Keywords: autopsy, cardiac death, sudden death, young

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2037 Parsonage Turner Syndrome PTS, Case Report

Authors: A. M. Bumbea, A. Musetescu, P. Ciurea, A. Bighea

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Objectives: The authors present a Parsonage Turner syndrome, a rare disease characterized by onset in apparently healthy person with shoulder and/or arm pain, sensory deficit, motor deficit. The causes are not established, could be determinate by vaccination, postoperative, immunologic disease, post traumatic etc. Methods: The authors present a woman case, 32 years old, (in 2006), no medical history, with arm pain and no other symptom. The onset was sudden with pain at very high level quantified as 10 to a 0 to 10 scale, with no response to classical analgesic and corticoids. The only drugs which can reduce the intensity of pain were oxycodone hydrochloride, 60 mg daily and pregabalinum150 mg daily. After two weeks the intensity of pain was reduced to 5. The patient started a rehabilitation program. After 6 weeks the patient associated sensory and motor deficit. We performed electromyography for upper limb that showed incomplete denervation with reduced neural transmission speed. The patient receives neurotrophic drugs and painkillers for a long period and physical and kinetic therapy. After 6 months the pain was reduced to level 2 and the patient maintained only 150 mg pregabalinum for another 6 months. Then, the evaluation showed no pain but general amiotrophy in upper limb. Results: At the evaluation in 2009, the patient developed a rheumatoid syndrome with tender and swelling joints, but no positive inflammation test, no antibodies or rheumatoid factor. After two years, in 2011 the patient develops an increase of antinuclear antibodies. This context certifies the diagnosis of lupus and the patient receives the specific therapy. Conclusions: This case is not a typical case of onset of lupus with PTS, but the onset of PTS could include the onset of an immune disease.

Keywords: lupus, arm pain, patient, swelling

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2036 Forecasting Lake Malawi Water Level Fluctuations Using Stochastic Models

Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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