Search results for: actuarial modeling

Authors: Tugbanur Ozen Balaban, Gultekin Tarcan, Unsal Gemici, Mumtaz Colak, I. Hakki Karamanderesi

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Buyuk Menderes Graben is located in the Western Anatolia (Turkey). The graben has become the largest industrial and agricultural area with a total population exceeding 3.000.000. There are two big cities within the study areas from west to east as Aydın and Denizli. The study area is very rich with regard to cold ground waters and thermal waters. Electrical production using geothermal potential has become very popular in the last decades in this area. Buyuk Menderes Graben is a tectonically active extensional region and is undergoing a north–south extensional tectonic regime which commenced at the latest during Early Middle Miocene period. The basement of the study area consists of Menderes massif rocks that are made up of high-to low-grade metamorphics and they are aquifer for both cold ground waters and thermal waters depending on the location. Neogene terrestrial sediments, which are mainly composed by alluvium fan deposits unconformably cover the basement rocks in different facies have very low permeability and locally may act as cap rocks for the geothermal systems. The youngest unit is Quaternary alluvium which is the shallow regional aquifer consists of Holocene alluvial deposits in the study area. All the waters are of meteoric origin and reflect shallow or deep circulation according to the 8O, 2H and 3H contents. Meteoric waters move to deep zones by fractured system and rise to the surface along the faults. Water samples (drilling well, spring and surface waters) and local seawater were collected between 2010 and 2012 years. Geochemical modeling was calculated distribution of the aqueous species and exchange processes by using PHREEQCi speciation code. Geochemical analyses show that cold ground water types are evolving from Ca–Mg–HCO3 to Na–Cl–SO4 and geothermal aquifer waters reflect the water types of Na-Cl-HCO3 in Aydın. Water types of Denizli are Ca-Mg-HCO3 and Ca-Mg-HCO3-SO4. Thermal water types reflect generally Na-HCO3-SO4. The B versus Cl rates increase from east to west with the proportion of seawater introduced into the fresh water aquifers and geothermal reservoirs. Concentrations of some elements (As, B, Fe and Ni) are higher than the tolerance limit of the drinking water standard of Turkey (TS 266) and international drinking water standards (WHO, FAO etc).

Keywords: Buyuk Menderes, isotope chemistry, geochemical modelling, water quality

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Authors: Shahram Naghizadeh Raeisi, Ali Alghooneh

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The application of whey protein in drink industry to enhance the nutritional value of the products is important. Furthermore, the gelification of protein during thermal treatment and shelf life makes some limitations in its application. So, the main goal of this research is manufacturing of high concentrate whey protein orange drink with appropriate shelf life. In this way, whey protein was 5 to 30% hydrolyzed ( in 5 percent intervals at six stages), then thermal stability of samples with 10% concentration of protein was tested in acidic condition (T= 90 °C, pH=4.2, 5 minutes ) and neutral condition (T=120° C, pH:6.7, 20 minutes.) Furthermore, to study the shelf life of heat treated samples in 4 months at 4 and 24 °C, the time sweep rheological test were done. At neutral conditions, 5 to 20% hydrolyzed sample showed gelling during thermal treatment, whereas at acidic condition, was happened only in 5 to 10 percent hydrolyzed samples. This phenomenon could be related to the difference in hydrodynamic radius and zeta potential of samples with different level of hydrolyzation at acidic and neutral conditions. To study the gelification of heat resistant protein solutions during shelf life, for 4 months with 7 days intervals, the time sweep analysis were performed. Cross over was observed for all heat resistant neutral samples at both storage temperature, while in heat resistant acidic samples with degree of hydrolysis, 25 and 30 percentage at 4 and 20 °C, it was not seen. It could be concluded that the former sample was stable during heat treatment and 4 months storage, which made them a good choice for manufacturing high protein drinks. The Scheffe polynomial model and numerical optimization were employed for modeling and high protein orange drink formula optimization. Scheffe model significantly predicted the overal acceptance index (Pvalue<0.05) of sensorial analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.94, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2Adj) of 0.90, insignificance of the lack-of-fit test and F value of 64.21 showed the accuracy of the model. Moreover, the coefficient of variable (C.V) was 6.8% which suggested the replicability of the experimental data. The desirability function had been achieved to be 0.89, which indicates the high accuracy of optimization. The optimum formulation was found as following: Modified whey protein solution (65.30%), natural orange juice (33.50%), stevia sweetener (0.05%), orange peel oil (0.15%) and citric acid (1 %), respectively. Its worth mentioning that this study made an appropriate model for application of whey protein in drink industry without bitter flavor and gelification during heat treatment and shelf life.

Keywords: croos over, orange beverage, protein modification, optimization

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Authors: Hyeon-Seung Kim, Sang-Mi Park, Sun-Ju Han, Leen-Seok Kang

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As BIM (Building Information Modeling) application continually expands, the visual simulation techniques used for facility design and construction process information are becoming increasingly advanced and diverse. For building structures, BIM application is design - oriented to utilize 3D objects for conflict management, whereas for civil engineering structures, the usability of nD object - oriented construction stage simulation is important in construction management. Simulations of 5D and 6D objects, for which cost and resources are linked along with process simulation in 4D objects, are commonly used, but they do not provide a decision - making function for process management problems that occur on site because they mostly focus on the visual representation of current status for process information. In this study, an nD CAD system is constructed that facilitates an optimized schedule simulation that minimizes process conflict, a construction duration reduction simulation according to execution progress status, optimized process plan simulation according to project cost change by year, and optimized resource simulation for field resource mobilization capability. Through this system, the usability of conventional simple simulation objects is expanded to the usability of active simulation objects with which decision - making is possible. Furthermore, to close the gap between field process situations and planned 4D process objects, a technique is developed to facilitate a comparative simulation through the coordinated synchronization of an actual video object acquired by an on - site web camera and VR concept 4D object. This synchronization and simulation technique can also be applied to smartphone video objects captured in the field in order to increase the usability of the 4D object. Because yearly project costs change frequently for civil engineering construction, an annual process plan should be recomposed appropriately according to project cost decreases/increases compared with the plan. In the 5D CAD system provided in this study, an active 5D object utilization concept is introduced to perform a simulation in an optimized process planning state by finding a process optimized for the changed project cost without changing the construction duration through a technique such as genetic algorithm. Furthermore, in resource management, an active 6D object utilization function is introduced that can analyze and simulate an optimized process plan within a possible scope of moving resources by considering those resources that can be moved under a given field condition, instead of using a simple resource change simulation by schedule. The introduction of an active BIM function is expected to increase the field utilization of conventional nD objects.

Keywords: 4D, 5D, 6D, active BIM

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Authors: Vladimir Messerle, Alexandr Ustimenko, Oleg Lavrichshev

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To enhance the efficiency of solid fuels’ use, to decrease the fuel oil rate in the thermal power plants fuel balance and to minimize harmful emissions, a plasma technology of coal ignition, gasification and incineration is successfully applied. This technology is plasma thermochemical preparation of fuel for burning (PTCPF). In the framework of this concept, some portion of pulverized solid fuel (PF) is separated from the main PF flow and undergone the activation by arc plasma in a specific chamber with plasma torch – PFS. The air plasma flame is a source of heat and additional oxidation, it provides a high-temperature medium enriched with radicals, where the fuel mixture is heated, volatile components of coal are extracted, and carbon is partially gasified. This active blended fuel can ignite the main PF flow supplied into the furnace. This technology provides the boiler start-up and stabilization of PF flame and eliminates the necessity for addition of highly reactive fuel. In the report, a model of PTCPF, implemented as a program PlasmaKinTherm for the PFS calculation is described. The model combines thermodynamic and kinetic methods for describing the process of PTCPF in PFS. The numerical investigation of operational parameters of PFS depending on the electric power of the plasma generator and steam coal ash content revealed the temperature and velocity of gas and coal particles, and concentrations of PTCPF products dependences on the PFS length. Main mechanisms of PTCPF were disclosed. It was found that in the range of electric power of plasma generator from 40 to 100 kW high ash bituminous coal, having consumption 1667 kg/h is ignited stably. High level of temperature (1740 K) and concentration of combustible components (44%) at the PFS exit is a confirmation of it. Augmentation in power of plasma generator results displacement maxima temperatures and speeds of PTCPF products upstream (in the direction of the plasma source). The maximum temperature and velocity vary in a narrow range of values and practically do not depend on the power of the plasma torch. The numerical study of indicators of the process of PTCPF depending on the ash content in the range of its values 20-70% demonstrated that at the exit of PFS concentration of combustible components decreases with an increase in coal ash, the temperature of the gaseous products is increasing, and coal carbon conversion rate is increased to a maximum value when the ash content of 60%, dramatically decreasing with further increase in the ash content.

Keywords: coal, efficiency, ignition, numerical modeling, plasma generator, plasma-fuel system

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Authors: M. Tarik Boyraz, M. Bilge Imer

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Conventionally cast nickel-based super alloys, such as commercial alloy IN 738 LC, are widely used in manufacturing of industrial gas turbine blades. With carefully designed microstructure and the existence of alloying elements, the blades show improved mechanical properties at high operating temperatures and corrosive environment. The aim of this work is to model and estimate these mechanical properties of IN 738 LC alloy solely based on simulations for projected heat treatment conditions or service conditions. The microstructure (size, fraction and frequency of gamma prime- γ′ and carbide phases in gamma- γ matrix, and grain size) of IN 738 LC needs to be optimized to improve the high temperature mechanical properties by heat treatment process. This process can be performed at different soaking temperature, time and cooling rates. In this work, micro-structural evolution studies were performed experimentally at various heat treatment process conditions, and these findings were used as input for further simulation studies. The operation time, soaking temperature and cooling rate provided by experimental heat treatment procedures were used as micro-structural simulation input. The results of this simulation were compared with the size, fraction and frequency of γ′ and carbide phases, and grain size provided by SEM (EDS module and mapping), EPMA (WDS module) and optical microscope for before and after heat treatment. After iterative comparison of experimental findings and simulations, an offset was determined to fit the real time and theoretical findings. Thereby, it was possible to estimate the final micro-structure without any necessity to carry out the heat treatment experiment. The output of this microstructure simulation based on heat treatment was used as input to estimate yield stress and creep properties. Yield stress was calculated mainly as a function of precipitation, solid solution and grain boundary strengthening contributors in microstructure. Creep rate was calculated as a function of stress, temperature and microstructural factors such as dislocation density, precipitate size, inter-particle spacing of precipitates. The estimated yield stress values were compared with the corresponding experimental hardness and tensile test values. The ability to determine best heat treatment conditions that achieve the desired microstructural and mechanical properties were developed for IN 738 LC based completely on simulations.

Keywords: heat treatment, IN738LC, simulations, super-alloys

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Authors: Maria De Albuquerque Bercot, Caio Gustavo Mesquita Angelo, Daniela Maria Moreira Siqueira, Augusto Assucena De Vasconcellos, Rodrigo Studart Correa

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Mining is an important socioeconomic activity in Brazil although it negatively impacts the environment. Mineral operations cause irreversible changes in topography, removal of vegetation and topsoil, habitat destruction, displacement of fauna, loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, siltation of watercourses and have potential to enhance climate change. Due to the impacts and its pollution potential, mining activity in Brazil is legally subjected to environmental licensing. Unlicensed mining operations or operations that not abide to the terms of an obtained license are taken as environmental crimes in the country. This work reports a case analyzed in the Forensic Institute of the Brazilian Federal District Civil Police. The case consisted of detecting illegal aspects of sand exploitation from a licensed mine in Federal District, nearby Brasilia city. The fieldwork covered an area of roughly 6 ha, which was surveyed with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) (PHANTOM 3 ADVANCED). The overflight with UAV took about 20 min, with maximum flight height of 100 m. 592 UAV georeferenced images were obtained and processed in a photogrammetric software (AGISOFT PHOTOSCAN 1.1.4), which generated a mosaic of geo-referenced images and a 3D model in less than six working hours. The 3D model was analyzed in a forensic software for accurate modeling and volumetric analysis. (MAPTEK I-SITE FORENSIC 2.2). To ensure the 3D model was a true representation of the mine site, coordinates of ten control points and reference measures were taken during fieldwork and compared to respective spatial data in the model. Finally, these spatial data were used for measuring mining area, excavation depth and volume of exploited sand. Results showed that mine holder had not complied with some terms and conditions stated in the granted license, such as sand exploration beyond authorized extension, depth and volume. Easiness, the accuracy and expedition of procedures used in this case highlight the employment of UAV imagery and computational photogrammetry as efficient tools for outdoor forensic exams, especially on environmental issues.

Keywords: computational photogrammetry, environmental monitoring, mining, UAV

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Authors: Siva K. Bathina, Sudheer Siddapureddy

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Pool fires are formed when the flammable liquid accidentally spills on the ground or water and ignites. Pool fire is a kind of buoyancy-driven and diffusion flame. There have been many pool fire accidents caused during processing, handling and storing of liquid fuels in chemical and oil industries. Such kind of accidents causes enormous damage to property as well as the loss of lives. Pool fires are complex in nature due to the strong interaction among the combustion, heat and mass transfers and pyrolysis at the fuel surface. Moreover, the experimental study of such large complex fires involves fire safety issues and difficulties in performing experiments. In the present work, large eddy simulations are performed to study such complex fire scenarios using fire dynamic simulator. A 1 m diesel pool fire is considered for the studied cases, and diesel is chosen as it is most commonly involved fuel in fire accidents. Fire simulations are performed by specifying two different boundary conditions: one the fuel is in liquid state and pyrolysis model is invoked, and the other by assuming the fuel is initially in a vapor state and thereby prescribing the mass loss rate. A domain of size 11.2 m × 11.2 m × 7.28 m with uniform structured grid is chosen for the numerical simulations. Grid sensitivity analysis is performed, and a non-dimensional grid size of 12 corresponding to 8 cm grid size is considered. Flame properties like mass burning rate, irradiance, and time-averaged axial flame temperature profile are predicted. The predicted steady-state mass burning rate is 40 g/s and is within the uncertainty limits of the previously reported experimental data (39.4 g/s). Though the profile of the irradiance at a distance from the fire along the height is somewhat in line with the experimental data and the location of the maximum value of irradiance is shifted to a higher location. This may be due to the lack of sophisticated models for the species transportation along with combustion and radiation in the continuous zone. Furthermore, the axial temperatures are not predicted well (for any of the boundary conditions) in any of the zones. The present study shows that the existing models are not sufficient enough for modeling blended fuels like diesel. The predictions are strongly dependent on the experimental values of the soot yield. Future experiments are necessary for generalizing the soot yield for different fires.

Keywords: burning rate, fire accidents, fire dynamic simulator, pyrolysis

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Authors: Vinay Kumar Vanjakula, Frank Adam, Nils Goseberg, Christian Windt

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When a structure is installed on a seabed, the presence of the structure will influence the flow field around it. The changes in the flow field include, formation of vortices, turbulence generation, waves or currents flow breaking and pressure differentials around the seabed sediment. These changes allow the local seabed sediment to be carried off and results in Scour (erosion). These are a threat to the structure's stability. In recent decades, rapid developments of research work and the knowledge of scour On fixed structures (bridges and Monopiles) in rivers and oceans has been carried out, and very limited research work on scour and liquefaction for gravity anchors, particularly for floating Tension Leg Platform (TLP) substructures. Due to its importance and need for enhancement of knowledge in scour and liquefaction around marine structures, the MarTERA funded a three-year (2020-2023) research program called NuLIMAS (Numerical Modeling of Liquefaction Around Marine Structures). It’s a group consists of European institutions (Universities, laboratories, and consulting companies). The objective of this study is to build a numerical model that replicates the reality, which indeed helps to simulate (predict) underwater flow conditions and to study different marine scour and Liquefication situations. It helps to design a heavyweight anchor for the TLP substructure and to minimize the time and expenditure on experiments. And also, the achieved results and the numerical model will be a basis for the development of other design and concepts For marine structures. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical model will build in OpenFOAM. A conceptual design of heavyweight anchor for TLP substructure is designed through taking considerations of available state-of-the-art knowledge on scour and Liquefication concepts and references to Previous existing designs. These conceptual designs are validated with the available similar experimental benchmark data and also with the CFD numerical benchmark standards (CFD quality assurance study). CFD optimization model/tool is designed as to minimize the effect of fluid flow, scour, and Liquefication. A parameterized model is also developed to automate the calculation process to reduce user interactions. The parameters such as anchor Lowering Process, flow optimized outer contours, seabed interaction study, and FSSI (Fluid-Structure-Seabed Interactions) are investigated and used to carve the model as to build an optimized anchor.

Keywords: gravity anchor, liquefaction, scour, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: Faezeh Mosallat, Eric L. Bibeau, Tarek El Mekkawy

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Availability of a wide variety of renewable resources, such as large reserves of hydro, biomass, solar and wind in Canada provides significant potential to improve the sustainability of energy uses. As buildings represent a considerable portion of energy use in Canada, application of distributed solar energy systems for heating and cooling may increase the amount of renewable energy use. Parabolic solar trough systems have seen limited deployments in cold northern climates as they are more suitable for electricity production in southern latitudes. Heat production by concentrating solar rays using parabolic troughs can overcome the poor efficiencies of flat panels and evacuated tubes in cold climates. A numerical dynamic model is developed to simulate an installed parabolic solar trough facility in Winnipeg. The results of the numerical model are validated using the experimental data obtained from this system. The model is developed in Simulink and will be utilized to simulate a tri-generation system for heating, cooling and electricity generation in remote northern communities. The main objective of this simulation is to obtain operational data of solar troughs in cold climates as this is lacking in the literature. In this paper, the validated Simulink model is applied to simulate a solar assisted absorption cooling system along with electricity generation using organic Rankine cycle (ORC) and thermal storage. A control strategy is employed to distribute the heated oil from solar collectors among the above three systems considering the temperature requirements. This modeling provides dynamic performance results using real time minutely meteorological data which are collected at the same location the solar system is installed. This is a big step ahead of the current models by accurately calculating the available solar energy at each time step considering the solar radiation fluctuations due to passing clouds. The solar absorption cooling is modeled to use the generated heat from the solar trough system and provide cooling in summer for a greenhouse which is located next to the solar field. A natural gas water heater provides the required excess heat for the absorption cooling at low or no solar radiation periods. The results of the simulation are presented for a summer month in Winnipeg which includes the amount of generated electric power from ORC and contribution of solar energy in the cooling load provision

Keywords: absorption cooling, parabolic solar trough, remote community, validated model

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Authors: Stefan Peters, Phillip Roetman

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The global loss of biodiversity is threatening the benefits nature provides to human populations and has become a more pressing issue than climate change and requires immediate attention. While there have been successful global agreements for environmental protection, such as the Montreal Protocol, these are rare, and we cannot rely on them solely. Thus, it is crucial to take national and local actions to support biodiversity. Australia is one of the 17 countries in the world with a high level of biodiversity, and its cities are vital habitats for endangered species, with more of them found in urban areas than in non-urban ones. However, the protection of biodiversity in metropolitan Adelaide has been inadequate, with over 130 species disappearing since European colonization in 1836. In this research project we conceptualized, developed and implemented a framework for wildlife Habitat Hotspots and Habitat Corridor modelling in an urban context using geographic data and GIS modelling and analysis. We used detailed topographic and other geographic data provided by a local council, including spatial and attributive properties of trees, parcels, water features, vegetated areas, roads, verges, traffic, and census data. Weighted factors considered in our raster-based Habitat Hotspot model include parcel size, parcel shape, population density, canopy cover, habitat quality and proximity to habitats and water features. Weighted factors considered in our raster-based Habitat Corridor model include habitat potential (resulting from the Habitat Hotspot model), verge size, road hierarchy, road widths, human density, and presence of remnant indigenous vegetation species. We developed a GIS model, using Python scripting and ArcGIS-Pro Model-Builder, to establish an automated reproducible and adjustable geoprocessing workflow, adaptable to any study area of interest. Our habitat hotspot and corridor modelling framework allow to determine and map existing habitat hotspots and wildlife habitat corridors. Our research had been applied to the study case of Burnside, a local council in Adelaide, Australia, which encompass an area of 30 km2. We applied end-user expertise-based category weightings to refine our models and optimize the use of our habitat map outputs towards informing local strategic decision-making.

Keywords: biodiversity, GIS modeling, habitat hotspot, wildlife corridor

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Authors: Malte Brettel, Niklas Friederichsen, Michael Keller, Marius Rosenberg

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The German manufacturing industry has to withstand an increasing global competition on product quality and production costs. As labor costs are high, several industries have suffered severely under the relocation of production facilities towards aspiring countries, which have managed to close the productivity and quality gap substantially. Established manufacturing companies have recognized that customers are not willing to pay large price premiums for incremental quality improvements. As a consequence, many companies from the German manufacturing industry adjust their production focusing on customized products and fast time to market. Leveraging the advantages of novel production strategies such as Agile Manufacturing and Mass Customization, manufacturing companies transform into integrated networks, in which companies unite their core competencies. Hereby, virtualization of the process- and supply-chain ensures smooth inter-company operations providing real-time access to relevant product and production information for all participating entities. Boundaries of companies deteriorate, as autonomous systems exchange data, gained by embedded systems throughout the entire value chain. By including Cyber-Physical-Systems, advanced communication between machines is tantamount to their dialogue with humans. The increasing utilization of information and communication technology allows digital engineering of products and production processes alike. Modular simulation and modeling techniques allow decentralized units to flexibly alter products and thereby enable rapid product innovation. The present article describes the developments of Industry 4.0 within the literature and reviews the associated research streams. Hereby, we analyze eight scientific journals with regards to the following research fields: Individualized production, end-to-end engineering in a virtual process chain and production networks. We employ cluster analysis to assign sub-topics into the respective research field. To assess the practical implications, we conducted face-to-face interviews with managers from the industry as well as from the consulting business using a structured interview guideline. The results reveal reasons for the adaption and refusal of Industry 4.0 practices from a managerial point of view. Our findings contribute to the upcoming research stream of Industry 4.0 and support decision-makers to assess their need for transformation towards Industry 4.0 practices.

Keywords: Industry 4.0., mass customization, production networks, virtual process-chain

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Authors: Seydou Sinde

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The aims of this paper are to formulate mathematical expressions that can be used to estimate the standpipe pressure (SPP). The developed formulas take into account the main factors that, directly or indirectly, affect the behavior of SPP values. Fluid rheology and well hydraulics are some of these essential factors. Mud Plastic viscosity, yield point, flow power, consistency index, flow rate, drillstring, and annular geometries are represented by the frictional pressure (Pf), which is one of the input independent parameters and is calculated, in this paper, using Herschel-Bulkley rheological model. Other input independent parameters include the rate of penetration (ROP), applied load or weight on the bit (WOB), bit revolutions per minute (RPM), bit torque (TRQ), and hole inclination and direction coupled in the hole curvature or dogleg (DL). The technique of repeating parameters and Buckingham PI theorem are used to reduce the number of the input independent parameters into the dimensionless revolutions per minute (RPMd), the dimensionless torque (TRQd), and the dogleg, which is already in the dimensionless form of radians. Multivariable linear and polynomial regression technique using PTC Mathcad Prime 4.0 is used to analyze and determine the exact relationships between the dependent parameter, which is SPP, and the remaining three dimensionless groups. Three models proved sufficiently satisfactory to estimate the standpipe pressure: multivariable linear regression model 1 containing three regression coefficients for vertical wells; multivariable linear regression model 2 containing four regression coefficients for deviated wells; and multivariable polynomial quadratic regression model containing six regression coefficients for both vertical and deviated wells. Although that the linear regression model 2 (with four coefficients) is relatively more complex and contains an additional term over the linear regression model 1 (with three coefficients), the former did not really add significant improvements to the later except for some minor values. Thus, the effect of the hole curvature or dogleg is insignificant and can be omitted from the input independent parameters without significant losses of accuracy. The polynomial quadratic regression model is considered the most accurate model due to its relatively higher accuracy for most of the cases. Data of nine wells from the Middle East were used to run the developed models with satisfactory results provided by all of them, even if the multivariable polynomial quadratic regression model gave the best and most accurate results. Development of these models is useful not only to monitor and predict, with accuracy, the values of SPP but also to early control and check for the integrity of the well hydraulics as well as to take the corrective actions should any unexpected problems appear, such as pipe washouts, jet plugging, excessive mud losses, fluid gains, kicks, etc.

Keywords: standpipe, pressure, hydraulics, nondimensionalization, parameters, regression

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Authors: Dangut Maren David, Skaf Zakwan

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Adequate monitoring of vehicle component in other to obtain high uptime is the goal of predictive maintenance, the major challenge faced by businesses in industries is the significant cost associated with a delay in service delivery due to system downtime. Most of those businesses are interested in predicting those problems and proactively prevent them in advance before it occurs, which is the core advantage of Prognostic Health Management (PHM) application. The recent emergence of industry 4.0 or industrial internet of things (IIoT) has led to the need for monitoring systems activities and enhancing system-to-system or component-to- component interactions, this has resulted to a large generation of data known as big data. Analysis of big data represents an increasingly important, however, due to complexity inherently in the dataset such as imbalance classification problems, it becomes extremely difficult to build a model with accurate high precision. Data-driven predictive modeling for condition-based maintenance (CBM) has recently drowned research interest with growing attention to both academics and industries. The large data generated from industrial process inherently comes with a different degree of complexity which posed a challenge for analytics. Thus, imbalance classification problem exists perversely in industrial datasets which can affect the performance of learning algorithms yielding to poor classifier accuracy in model development. Misclassification of faults can result in unplanned breakdown leading economic loss. In this paper, an advanced approach for handling imbalance classification problem is proposed and then a prognostic model for predicting aircraft component replacement is developed to predict component replacement in advanced by exploring aircraft historical data, the approached is based on hybrid ensemble-based method which improves the prediction of the minority class during learning, we also investigate the impact of our approach on multiclass imbalance problem. We validate the feasibility and effectiveness in terms of the performance of our approach using real-world aircraft operation and maintenance datasets, which spans over 7 years. Our approach shows better performance compared to other similar approaches. We also validate our approach strength for handling multiclass imbalanced dataset, our results also show good performance compared to other based classifiers.

Keywords: prognostics, data-driven, imbalance classification, deep learning

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Authors: Pamela R. Jackson, Andrea Hawkins-Daarud, Cassandra R. Rickertsen, Kamala Clark-Swanson, Scott A. Whitmire, Kristin R. Swanson

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Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM), the most common primary brain tumor, often presents with hyperintensity on T2-weighted or T2-weighted fluid attenuated inversion recovery (T2/FLAIR) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). This hyperintensity corresponds with vasogenic edema, however there are likely many infiltrating tumor cells within the hyperintensity as well. While MRIs do not directly indicate tumor cells, MRIs do reflect the microenvironmental water abnormalities caused by the presence of tumor cells and edema. The inherent heterogeneity and resulting MRI features of GBMs complicate assessing disease response. To understand how hyperintensity on T2/FLAIR MRI may correlate with edema in the extracellular space (ECS), a multi-compartmental MRI signal equation which takes into account tissue compartments and their associated volumes with input coming from a mathematical model of glioma growth that incorporates edema formation was explored. The reasonableness of two possible extracellular space schema was evaluated by varying the T2 of the edema compartment and calculating the possible resulting T2s in tumor and peripheral edema. In the mathematical model, gliomas were comprised of vasculature and three tumor cellular phenotypes: normoxic, hypoxic, and necrotic. Edema was characterized as fluid leaking from abnormal tumor vessels. Spatial maps of tumor cell density and edema for virtual tumors were simulated with different rates of proliferation and invasion and various ECS expansion schemes. These spatial maps were then passed into a multi-compartmental MRI signal model for generating simulated T2/FLAIR MR images. Individual compartments’ T2 values in the signal equation were either from literature or estimated and the T2 for edema specifically was varied over a wide range (200 ms – 9200 ms). T2 maps were calculated from simulated images. T2 values based on simulated images were evaluated for regions of interest (ROIs) in normal appearing white matter, tumor, and peripheral edema. The ROI T2 values were compared to T2 values reported in literature. The expanding scheme of extracellular space is had T2 values similar to the literature calculated values. The static scheme of extracellular space had a much lower T2 values and no matter what T2 was associated with edema, the intensities did not come close to literature values. Expanding the extracellular space is necessary to achieve simulated edema intensities commiserate with acquired MRIs.

Keywords: extracellular space, glioblastoma multiforme, magnetic resonance imaging, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Aron Witkowski, Andrzej Wodecki

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Purpose: This study aims to explore the feasibility and effectiveness of utilizing Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) agents as product managers within the manufacturing sector. It seeks to evaluate whether current GenAI capabilities can fulfill the complex requirements of product management and deliver comparable outcomes to human counterparts. Study Design/Methodology/Approach: This research involved the creation of a support application for product managers, utilizing high-quality sources on product management and generative AI technologies. The application was designed to assist in various aspects of product management tasks. To evaluate its effectiveness, a study was conducted involving 10 experienced product managers from the manufacturing sector. These professionals were tasked with using the application and providing feedback on the tool's responses to common questions and challenges they encounter in their daily work. The study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative assessments of the tool's performance with qualitative interviews to gather detailed insights into the user experience and perceived value of the application. Findings: The findings reveal that GenAI-based product management agents exhibit significant potential in handling routine tasks, data analysis, and predictive modeling. However, there are notable limitations in areas requiring nuanced decision-making, creativity, and complex stakeholder interactions. The case study demonstrates that while GenAI can augment human capabilities, it is not yet fully equipped to independently manage the holistic responsibilities of a product manager in the manufacturing sector. Originality/Value: This research provides an analysis of GenAI's role in product management within the manufacturing industry, contributing to the limited body of literature on the application of GenAI agents in this domain. It offers practical insights into the current capabilities and limitations of GenAI, helping organizations make informed decisions about integrating AI into their product management strategies. Implications for Academic and Practical Fields: For academia, the study suggests new avenues for research in AI-human collaboration and the development of advanced AI systems capable of higher-level managerial functions. Practically, it provides industry professionals with a nuanced understanding of how GenAI can be leveraged to enhance product management, guiding investments in AI technologies and training programs to bridge identified gaps.

Keywords: generative artificial intelligence, GenAI, NPD, new product development, product management, manufacturing

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Authors: Hemant Upadhyay, Tarun Kumar Kundu

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It is utmost important for a blast furnace operator to understand the mechanisms governing the liquid flow, accumulation, drainage and heat transfer between various phases in blast furnace hearth for a stable and efficient blast furnace operation. Abnormal drainage behavior may lead to high liquid build up in the hearth. Operational problems such as pressurization, low wind intake, and lower material descent rates, normally be encountered if the liquid levels in the hearth exceed a critical limit when Hearth coke and Deadman start to float. Similarly, hot metal temperature is an important parameter to be controlled in the BF operation; it should be kept at an optimal level to obtain desired product quality and a stable BF performance. It is not possible to carry out any direct measurement of above due to the hostile conditions in the hearth with chemically aggressive hot liquids. The objective here is to develop a mathematical model to simulate the variation in hot metal / slag accumulation and temperature during the tapping of the blast furnace based on the computed drainage rate, production rate, mass balance, heat transfer between metal and slag, metal and solids, slag and solids as well as among the various zones of metal and slag itself. For modeling purpose, the BF hearth is considered as a pressurized vessel, filled with solid coke particles. Liquids trickle down in hearth from top and accumulate in voids between the coke particles which are assumed thermally saturated. A set of generic mass balance equations gives the amount of metal and slag intake in hearth. A small drainage (tap hole) is situated at the bottom of the hearth and flow rate of liquids from tap hole is computed taking in account the amount of both the phases accumulated their level in hearth, pressure from gases in the furnace and erosion behaviors of tap hole itself. Heat transfer equations provide the exchange of heat between various layers of liquid metal and slag, and heat loss to cooling system through refractories. Based on all that information a dynamic simulation is carried out which provides real time information of liquids accumulation in hearth before and during tapping, drainage rate and its variation, predicts critical event timings during tapping and expected tapping temperature of metal and slag on preset time intervals. The model is in use at JSPL, India BF-II and its output is regularly cross-checked with actual tapping data, which are in good agreement.

Keywords: blast furnace, hearth, deadman, hotmetal

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Corinna Zeli, Silvia Calati, Marco Simeoni, Chiara Comastri

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Developmental stuttering affects about 10% of preschool children; although the high percentage of natural recovery, a quarter of them will become an adult who stutters. An effective early intervention should help those children with high persistence risk for the future. The Psicodizione method for early stuttering is an Italian behavior indirect treatment for preschool children who stutter in which method parents act as good guides for communication, modeling their own fluency. In this study, we give a preliminary measure to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of Psicodizione method on stuttering preschool children with a high persistence risk. Among all Italian children treated with the Psicodizione method between 2018 and 2019, we selected 8 kids with at least 3 high risk persistence factors from the Illinois Prediction Criteria proposed by Yairi and Seery. The factors chosen for the selection were: one parent who stutters (1pt mother; 1.5pt father), male gender, ≥ 4 years old at onset; ≥ 12 months from onset of symptoms before treatment. For this study, the families were contacted after an average period of time of 14,7 months (range 3 - 26 months). Parental reports were gathered with a standard online questionnaire in order to obtain data reflecting fluency from a wide range of the children’s life situations. The minimum worthwhile outcome was set at "mild evidence" in a 5 point Likert scale (1 mild evidence- 5 high severity evidence). A second group of 6 children, among those treated with the Piscodizione method, was selected as high potential for spontaneous remission (low persistence risk). The children in this group had to fulfill all the following criteria: female gender, symptoms for less than 12 months (before treatment), age of onset <4 years old, none of the parents with persistent stuttering. At the time of this follow-up, the children were aged 6–9 years, with a mean of 15 months post-treatment. Among the children in the high persistence risk group, 2 (25%) hadn’t had stutter anymore, and 3 (37,5%) had mild stutter based on parental reports. In the low persistency risk group, the children were aged 4–6 years, with a mean of 14 months post-treatment, and 5 (84%) hadn’t had stutter anymore (for the past 16 months on average).62,5% of children at high risk of persistence after Psicodizione treatment showed mild evidence of stutter at most. 75% of parents confirmed a better fluency than before the treatment. The low persistence risk group seemed to be representative of spontaneous recovery. This study’s design could help to better evaluate the success of the proposed interventions for stuttering preschool children and provides a preliminary measure of the effectiveness of the Psicodizione method on high persistence risk children.

Keywords: early treatment, fluency, preschool children, stuttering

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Nareshkumar Harale, B. B. Meshram

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The continued exponential growth of successful cyber intrusions against today’s businesses has made it abundantly clear that traditional perimeter security measures are no longer adequate and effective. We evolved the network trust architecture from trust-untrust to Zero-Trust, With Zero Trust, essential security capabilities are deployed in a way that provides policy enforcement and protection for all users, devices, applications, data resources, and the communications traffic between them, regardless of their location. Information exchange over the Internet, in spite of inclusion of advanced security controls, is always under innovative, inventive and prone to cyberattacks. TCP/IP protocol stack, the adapted standard for communication over network, suffers from inherent design vulnerabilities such as communication and session management protocols, routing protocols and security protocols are the major cause of major attacks. With the explosion of cyber security threats, such as viruses, worms, rootkits, malwares, Denial of Service attacks, accomplishing efficient and effective intrusion detection and prevention is become crucial and challenging too. In this paper, we propose a design and analysis model for next generation network intrusion detection and protection system as part of layered security strategy. The proposed system design provides intrusion detection for wide range of attacks with layered architecture and framework. The proposed network intrusion classification framework deals with cyberattacks on standard TCP/IP protocol, routing protocols and security protocols. It thereby forms the basis for detection of attack classes and applies signature based matching for known cyberattacks and data mining based machine learning approaches for unknown cyberattacks. Our proposed implemented software can effectively detect attacks even when malicious connections are hidden within normal events. The unsupervised learning algorithm applied to network audit data trails results in unknown intrusion detection. Association rule mining algorithms generate new rules from collected audit trail data resulting in increased intrusion prevention though integrated firewall systems. Intrusion response mechanisms can be initiated in real-time thereby minimizing the impact of network intrusions. Finally, we have shown that our approach can be validated and how the analysis results can be used for detecting and protection from the new network anomalies.

Keywords: network intrusion detection, network intrusion prevention, association rule mining, system analysis and design

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Yuqing Zou, Chunrui Zou, Yichong Cao

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Previous research has revealed relationships between self-efficacy (SE), engagement, and academic achievement among students in Western countries, but these relationships remain unknown in college math courses among college students in China. In addition, previous research has shown that test anxiety has a direct effect on engagement and academic achievement. However, how test anxiety affects the relationships between SE, engagement, and academic achievement is still unknown. In this study, the authors aimed to explore the mediating roles of behavioral engagement (BE), emotional engagement (EE), and cognitive engagement (CE) in the association between SE and academic achievement and the moderating role of test anxiety in college math courses. Our hypotheses are that the association between SE and academic achievement was mediated by engagement and that test anxiety played a moderating role in the association. To explore the research questions, the authors collected data through self-reported surveys among 147 students at a northwestern university in China. Self-reported surveys were used to collect data. The motivated strategies for learning questionnaire (MSLQ) (Pintrich, 1991), the metacognitive strategies questionnaire (Wolters, 2004), and the engagement versus disaffection with learning scale (Skinner et al., 2008) were used to assess SE, CE, and BE and EE, respectively. R software was used to analyze the data. The main analyses used were reliability and validity analysis of scales, descriptive statistics analysis of measured variables, correlation analysis, regression analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis and moderated mediation analysis to look at the structural relationships between variables at the same time. The SEM analysis indicated that student SE was positively related to BE, EE, and CE and academic achievement. BE, EE, and CE were all positively associated with academic achievement. That is, as the authors expected, higher levels of SE led to higher levels of BE, EE, and CE, and greater academic achievement. Higher levels of BE, EE, and CE led to greater academic achievement. In addition, the moderated mediation analysis found that the path of SE to academic achievement in the model was as significant as expected, as was the moderating effect of test anxiety in the SE-Achievement association. Specifically, test anxiety was found to moderate the association between SE and BE, the association between SE and CE, and the association between EE and Achievement. The authors investigated possible mediating effects of BE, EE, and CE in the associations between SE and academic achievement, and all indirect effects were found to be significant. As for the magnitude of mediations, behavioral engagement was the most important mediator in the SE-Achievement association. This study has implications for college teachers, educators, and students in China regarding ways to promote academic achievement in college math courses, including increasing self-efficacy and engagement and lessening test anxiety toward math.

Keywords: academic engagement, self-efficacy, test anxiety, academic achievement, college math courses, behavioral engagement, cognitive engagement, emotional engagement

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Sathwik Sarvadevabhatla Kasyap, Kostas Senetakis

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The mechanical behavior of geological materials is very complex, and this complexity is related to the discrete nature of soils and rocks. Characteristics of a material at the grain scale such as particle size and shape, surface roughness and morphology, and particle contact interface are critical to evaluate and better understand the behavior of discrete materials. This study investigates experimentally the micro-mechanical behavior of quartz sand grains with emphasis on the influence of the presence of microparticles in their contact region. The outputs of the study provide some fundamental insights on the contact mechanics behavior of artificially coated grains and can provide useful input parameters in the discrete element modeling (DEM) of soils. In nature, the contact interfaces between real soil grains are commonly observed with microparticles. This is usually the case of sand-silt and sand-clay mixtures, where the finer particles may create a coating on the surface of the coarser grains, altering in this way the micro-, and thus the macro-scale response of geological materials. In this study, the micro-mechanical behavior of Leighton Buzzard Sand (LBS) quartz grains, with interference of different microparticles at their contact interfaces is studied in the laboratory using an advanced custom-built inter-particle loading apparatus. Special techniques were adopted to develop the coating on the surfaces of the quartz sand grains so that to establish repeatability of the coating technique. The characterization of the microstructure of coated particles on their surfaces was based on element composition analyses, microscopic images, surface roughness measurements, and single particle crushing strength tests. The mechanical responses such as normal and tangential load – displacement behavior, tangential stiffness behavior, and normal contact behavior under cyclic loading were studied. The behavior of coated LBS particles is compared among different classes of them and with pure LBS (i.e. surface cleaned to remove any microparticles). The damage on the surface of the particles was analyzed using microscopic images. Extended displacements in both normal and tangential directions were observed for coated LBS particles due to the plastic nature of the coating material and this varied with the variation of the amount of coating. The tangential displacement required to reach steady state was delayed due to the presence of microparticles in the contact region of grains under shearing. Increased tangential loads and coefficient of friction were observed for the coated grains in comparison to the uncoated quartz grains.

Keywords: contact interface, microparticles, micro-mechanical behavior, quartz sand

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Cross-validation techniques are employed to assess the robustness and generalization ability of the models. The performance of the models is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The feature importance analysis reveals the relative significance of different project attributes in predicting the impact on cost and schedule. Key factors such as productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are identified as influential predictors. The study highlights the importance of considering both cost and schedule implications when managing scope changes. The developed predictive models provide project managers with a data-driven tool to proactively assess the potential impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. By leveraging these insights, project managers can make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop effective mitigation strategies. The findings of this research contribute to improved project planning, risk management, and overall project success.

Keywords: cost impact, machine learning, predictive modeling, schedule impact, scope changes

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Maryam Al Mheiri, Khaled Al Awadi

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Urban population is continuously increasing worldwide and the speed at which cities urbanize creates major challenges, particularly in terms of creating sustainable urban environments. Rapid urbanization often leads to negative environmental impacts and changes in the urban microclimates. Moreover, when rapid urbanization is paired with limited landscape elements, the effects on human health due to the increased pollution, and thermal comfort due to Urban Heat Island effects are increased. Urban Heat Island (UHI) describes the increase of urban temperatures in urban areas in comparison to its rural surroundings, and, as we discuss in this paper, it impacts on pedestrian comfort, reducing the number of walking trips and public space use. It is thus very necessary to investigate the quality of outdoor built environments in order to improve the quality of life incites. The main objective of this paper is to address the morphology of Emirati neighborhoods, setting a quantitative baseline by which to assess and compare spatial characteristics and microclimate performance of existing typologies in Abu Dhabi. This morphological mapping and analysis will help to understand the built landscape of Emirati neighborhoods in this city, whose form has changed and evolved across different periods. This will eventually help to model the use of different design strategies, such as landscaping, to mitigate UHI effects and enhance outdoor urban comfort. Further, the impact of different native plants types and native species in reducing UHI effects and enhancing outdoor urban comfort, allowing for the assessment of the impact of increasing landscaped areas in these neighborhoods. This study uses ENVI-met, an analytical, three-dimensional, high-resolution microclimate modeling software. This micro-scale urban climate model will be used to evaluate existing conditions and generate scenarios in different residential areas, with different vegetation surfaces and landscaping, and examine their impact on surface temperatures during summer and autumn. In parallel to these simulations, field measurement will be included to calibrate the Envi-met model. This research therefore takes an experimental approach, using simulation software, and a case study strategy for the evaluation of a sample of residential neighborhoods. A comparison of the results of these scenarios constitute a first step towards making recommendations about what constitutes sustainable landscapes for Abu Dhabi neighborhoods.

Keywords: landscape, microclimate, native plants, sustainable neighborhoods, thermal comfort, urban heat island

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

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Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: W. Meron Mebrahtu, R. Absi

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Velocity distribution in turbulent open-channel flows is organized in a complex manner. This is due to the large spatial and temporal variability of fluid motion resulting from the free-surface turbulent flow condition. This phenomenon is complicated further due to the complex geometry of channels and the presence of solids transported. Thus, several efforts were made to understand the phenomenon and obtain accurate mathematical models that are suitable for engineering applications. However, predictions are inaccurate because oversimplified assumptions are involved in modeling this complex phenomenon. Therefore, the aim of this work is to study velocity distribution profiles and obtain simple, more accurate, and predictive mathematical models. Particular focus will be made on the acceptable simplification of the general transport equations and an accurate representation of eddy viscosity. Wide rectangular open-channel seems suitable to begin the study; other assumptions are smooth-wall, and sediment-free flow under steady and uniform flow conditions. These assumptions will allow examining the effect of the bottom wall and the free surface only, which is a necessary step before dealing with more complex flow scenarios. For this flow condition, two ordinary differential equations are obtained for velocity profiles; from the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation and equilibrium consideration between turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) production and dissipation. Then different analytic models for eddy viscosity, TKE, and mixing length were assessed. Computation results for velocity profiles were compared to experimental data for different flow conditions and the well-known linear, log, and log-wake laws. Results show that the model based on the RANS equation provides more accurate velocity profiles. In the viscous sublayer and buffer layer, the method based on Prandtl’s eddy viscosity model and Van Driest mixing length give a more precise result. For the log layer and outer region, a mixing length equation derived from Von Karman’s similarity hypothesis provides the best agreement with measured data except near the free surface where an additional correction based on a damping function for eddy viscosity is used. This method allows more accurate velocity profiles with the same value of the damping coefficient that is valid under different flow conditions. This work continues with investigating narrow channels, complex geometries, and the effect of solids transported in sewers.

Keywords: accuracy, eddy viscosity, sewers, velocity profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Martins Onyekwelu Onuorah, Jnr Dahiru Usman

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Introduction: In the realm of public health, the threat posed by Monkeypox continues to elicit concern, prompting rigorous studies to understand its dynamics and devise effective containment strategies. Particularly significant is its recurrence in variable populations, such as the observed outbreak in Nigeria in 2022. In light of this, our study undertakes a meticulous analysis, employing a data-driven approach to explore, validate, and propose optimized intervention strategies tailored to the distinct dynamics of Monkeypox within varying demographic structures. Utilizing a deterministic mathematical model, we delved into the intricate dynamics of Monkeypox, with a particular focus on a variable population context. Our qualitative analysis provided insights into the disease-free equilibrium, revealing its stability when R0 is less than one and discounting the possibility of backward bifurcation, as substantiated by the presence of a single stable endemic equilibrium. The model was rigorously validated using real-time data from the Nigerian 2022 recorded cases for Epi weeks 1 – 52. Transitioning from qualitative to quantitative, we augmented our deterministic model with optimal control, introducing three time-dependent interventions to scrutinize their efficacy and influence on the epidemic's trajectory. Numerical simulations unveiled a pronounced impact of the interventions, offering a data-supported blueprint for informed decision-making in containing the disease. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis employing the Infection Averted Ratio (IAR), Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER), and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) facilitated a balanced evaluation of the interventions’ economic and health impacts. In essence, our study epitomizes a holistic approach to understanding and mitigating Monkeypox, intertwining rigorous mathematical modeling, empirical validation, and economic evaluation. The insights derived not only bolster our comprehension of Monkeypox's intricate dynamics but also unveil optimized, cost-effective interventions. This integration of methodologies and findings underscores a pivotal stride towards aligning public health imperatives with economic sustainability, marking a significant contribution to global efforts in combating infectious diseases.

Keywords: monkeypox, equilibrium states, stability, bifurcation, optimal control, cost-effectiveness

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: S. Agarwal, A. Rani

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Catechol is a natural polyphenolic compound that widely exists in higher plants such as teas, vegetables, fruits, tobaccos, and some traditional Chinese medicines. The fly ash-based zeolites are capable of absorbing a wide range of pollutants. But the process of zeolite synthesis is time-consuming and requires technical setups by the industries. The marketed costs of zeolites are quite high restricting its use by small-scale industries for the removal of phenolic compounds. The present research proposes a simple method of alkaline treatment of FA to produce an effective adsorbent for catechol removal from wastewater. The experimental parameter such as pH, temperature, initial concentration and adsorbent dose on the removal of catechol were studied in batch reactor. For this purpose the adsorbent materials were mixed with aqueous solutions containing catechol ranging in 50 – 200 mg/L initial concentrations and then shaken continuously in a thermostatic Orbital Incubator Shaker at 30 ± 0.1 °C for 24 h. The samples were withdrawn from the shaker at predetermined time interval and separated by centrifugation (Centrifuge machine MBL-20) at 2000 rpm for 4 min. to yield a clear supernatant for analysis of the equilibrium concentrations of the solutes. The concentrations were measured with Double Beam UV/Visible spectrophotometer (model Spectrscan UV 2600/02) at the wavelength of 275 nm for catechol. In the present study, the use of low-cost adsorbent (BTFA) derived from coal fly ash (FA), has been investigated as a substitute of expensive methods for the sequestration of catechol. The FA and BTFA adsorbents were well characterized by XRF, FE-SEM with EDX, FTIR, and surface area and porosity measurement which proves the chemical constituents, functional groups and morphology of the adsorbents. The catechol adsorption capacities of synthesized BTFA and native material were determined. The adsorption was slightly increased with an increase in pH value. The monolayer adsorption capacities of FA and BTFA for catechol were 100 mg g⁻¹ and 333.33 mg g⁻¹ respectively, and maximum adsorption occurs within 60 minutes for both adsorbents used in this test. The equilibrium data are fitted by Freundlich isotherm found on the basis of error analysis (RMSE, SSE, and χ²). Adsorption was found to be spontaneous and exothermic on the basis of thermodynamic parameters (ΔG°, ΔS°, and ΔH°). Pseudo-second-order kinetic model better fitted the data for both FA and BTFA. BTFA showed large adsorptive characteristics, high separation selectivity, and excellent recyclability than FA. These findings indicate that BTFA could be employed as an effective and inexpensive adsorbent for the removal of catechol from wastewater.

Keywords: catechol, fly ash, isotherms, kinetics, thermodynamic parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Victorita Radulescu

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Introduction: The sewage treatment plants, in the second stage, are formed by tanks having as main purpose the formation of the suspensions with high possible solid concentration values. The paper presents a solution to produce a rapid concentration of the slurry and sludge, having as main purpose the minimization as much as possible the size of the tanks. The solution is based on a rotor with bars, tested into two different areas of industrial activity: the remediation of the wastewater from the oil industry and, in the last year, into the mining industry. Basic Methods: It was designed, realized and tested a thickening system with vertical bars that manages to reduce sludge moisture content from 94% to 87%. The design was based on the hypothesis that the streamlines of the vortices detached from the rotor with vertical bars accelerate, under certain conditions, the sludge thickening. It is moved at the lateral sides, and in time, it became sediment. The formed vortices with the vertical axis in the viscous fluid, under the action of the lift, drag, weight, and inertia forces participate at a rapid aggregation of the particles thus accelerating the sludge concentration. Appears an interdependence between the Re number attached to the flow with vortex induced by the vertical bars and the size of the hydraulic compaction phenomenon, resulting from an accelerated process of sedimentation, therefore, a sludge thickening depending on the physic-chemical characteristics of the resulting sludge is projected the rotor's dimensions. Major findings/ Results: Based on the experimental measurements was performed the numerical simulation of the hydraulic rotor, as to assure the necessary vortices. The experimental measurements were performed to determine the optimal height and the density of the bars for the sludge thickening system, to assure the tanks dimensions as small as possible. The time thickening/settling was reduced by 24% compared to the conventional used systems. In the present, the thickeners intend to decrease the intermediate stage of water treatment, using primary and secondary settling; but they assume a quite long time, the order of 10-15 hours. By using this system, there are no intermediary steps; the thickening is done automatically when are created the vortices. Conclusions: The experimental tests were carried out in the wastewater treatment plant of the Refinery of oil from Brazi, near the city Ploiesti. The results prove its efficiency in reducing the time for compacting the sludge and the smaller humidity of the evacuated sediments. The utilization of this equipment is now extended and it is tested the mining industry, with significant results, in Lupeni mine, from the Jiu Valley.

Keywords: experimental tests, hydrodynamic modeling, rotor efficiency, wastewater treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: S. Mehrab Amiri, Nasser Talebbeydokhti

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Modeling sediment transport processes by means of numerical approach often poses severe challenges. In this way, a number of techniques have been suggested to solve flow and sediment equations in decoupled, semi-coupled or fully coupled forms. Furthermore, in order to capture flow discontinuities, a number of techniques, like artificial viscosity and shock fitting, have been proposed for solving these equations which are mostly required careful calibration processes. In this research, a numerical scheme for solving shallow water and Exner equations in fully coupled form is presented. First-Order Centered scheme is applied for producing required numerical fluxes and the reconstruction process is carried out toward using Monotonic Upstream Scheme for Conservation Laws to achieve a high order scheme.  In order to satisfy C-property of the scheme in presence of bed topography, Surface Gradient Method is proposed. Combining the presented scheme with fourth order Runge-Kutta algorithm for time integration yields a competent numerical scheme. In addition, to handle non-prismatic channels problems, Cartesian Cut Cell Method is employed. A trained Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network which is of Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP) type estimates sediment flow discharge in the model rather than usual empirical formulas. Hydrodynamic part of the model is tested for showing its capability in simulation of flow discontinuities, transcritical flows, wetting/drying conditions and non-prismatic channel flows. In this end, dam-break flow onto a locally non-prismatic converging-diverging channel with initially dry bed conditions is modeled. The morphodynamic part of the model is verified simulating dam break on a dry movable bed and bed level variations in an alluvial junction. The results show that the model is capable in capturing the flow discontinuities, solving wetting/drying problems even in non-prismatic channels and presenting proper results for movable bed situations. It can also be deducted that applying Artificial Neural Network, instead of common empirical formulas for estimating sediment flow discharge, leads to more accurate results.

Keywords: artificial neural network, morphodynamic model, sediment continuity equation, shallow water equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Rene Hellmuth

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Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the construction of a factory. The requirements for factory planning and the building of a factory have changed in recent years. Regular restructuring of the factory building is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A building information model (BIM) is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable data repository to be able to react quickly to changes. Use as a planning basis for restructuring measures in factories only succeeds if the BIM model has adequate data quality. Under this aspect and the industrial requirement, three data quality factors are particularly important for this paper regarding the BIM model: up-to-dateness, completeness, and correctness. The research question is: how can a BIM model be kept up to date with required data quality and which visualization techniques can be applied in a short period of time on the construction site during conversion measures? An as-is analysis is made of how BIM models and digital factory models (including laser scans) are currently being kept up to date. Industrial companies are interviewed, and expert interviews are conducted. Subsequently, the results are evaluated, and a procedure conceived how cost-effective and timesaving updating processes can be carried out. The availability of low-cost hardware and the simplicity of the process are of importance to enable service personnel from facility mnagement to keep digital factory models (BIM models and laser scans) up to date. The approach includes the detection of changes to the building, the recording of the changing area, and the insertion into the overall digital twin. Finally, an overview of the possibilities for visualizations suitable for construction sites is compiled. An augmented reality application is created based on an updated BIM model of a factory and installed on a tablet. Conversion scenarios with costs and time expenditure are displayed. A user interface is designed in such a way that all relevant conversion information is available at a glance for the respective conversion scenario. A total of three essential research results are achieved: As-is analysis of current update processes for BIM models and laser scans, development of a time-saving and cost-effective update process and the conception and implementation of an augmented reality solution for BIM models suitable for construction sites.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, restructuring

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Lucie Bielská, Lucia Škulcová, Martina Hvězdová, Jakub Hofman, Zdeněk Šimek

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The currently used pesticides represent a broad group of chemicals with various physicochemical and environmental properties which input has reached 2×106 tons/year and is expected to even increases. From that amount, only 1% directly interacts with the target organism while the rest represents a potential risk to the environment and human health. Despite being authorized and approved for field applications, the effects of pesticides in the environment can differ from the model scenarios due to the various pesticide-soil interactions and resulting modified fate and behavior. As such, a direct monitoring of pesticide residues and evaluation of their impact on soil biota, aquatic environment, food contamination, and human health should be performed to prevent environmental and economic damages. The present project focuses on fluvisols as they are intensively used in the agriculture but face to several environmental stressors. Fluvisols develop in the vicinity of rivers by the periodic settling of alluvial sediments and periodic interruptions to pedogenesis by flooding. As a result, fluvisols exhibit very high yields per area unit, are intensively used and loaded by pesticides. Regarding the floods, their regular contacts with surface water arise from serious concerns about the surface water contamination. In order to monitor pesticide residues and assess their environmental and biological impact within this project, 70 fluvisols were sampled over the Czech Republic and analyzed for the total and bioaccessible amounts of 40 various pesticides. For that purpose, methodologies for the pesticide extraction and analysis with liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry technique were developed and optimized. To assess the biological risks, both the earthworm bioaccumulation tests and various types of passive sampling techniques (XAD resin, Chemcatcher, and silicon rubber) were optimized and applied. These data on chemical analysis and bioavailability were combined with the results of soil analysis, including the measurement of basic physicochemical soil properties as well detailed characterization of soil organic matter with the advanced method of diffuse reflectance infrared spectrometry. The results provide unique data on the residual levels of pesticides in the Czech Republic and on the factors responsible for increased pesticide residue levels that should be included in the modeling of pesticide fate and effects.

Keywords: currently used pesticides, fluvisoils, bioavailability, Quechers, liquid-chromatography-mass spectrometry, soil properties, DRIFT analysis, pesticides

Procedia PDF Downloads 464