Search results for: short term load forecasting (STLF)

Authors: Bentoutou Houari, Boutte Aissa, Belaidi El Yazid, Limam Lakhdar

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The integration of a load switch with a DC/DC buck converter using LM2596 for power distribution in low-cost educational nanosatellites is a technique that aims to efficiently manage the power distribution system in these small spacecraft. The converter is based on the LM2596 regulator and designed to step down the input voltage of +16.8V to +12V, +5V, and +3.3V output, which are suitable for the nanosatellite's various subsystems. The load switch is based on MOSFET and is used to turn on or off the power supply to a particular load and protect the nanosatellite from power surges. A prototype of a +12V DC/DC buck converter with a high side load switch has been realized and tested, which meets our requirements and shows a good efficiency of 89%. In addition, the prototype features a capacitor between the source and gate of the MOSFET, which has effectively reduced the inrush current, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach in reducing surges of current when the load is connected. The output current and voltage were measured at 0.7A and 11.89V, respectively, making this design suitable for use in low-cost educational nanosatellites.

Keywords: DC/DC buck converter, load switch, LM2596, electrical power subsystems, nanosatellite, inrush current

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

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Authors: Gamal F.Attia

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The baselines are the distances and lengths of the chords between projections of the positions of the laser stations on the reference ellipsoid. For the satellite geodesy, it is very important to determine the optimal length of orbital arc along which laser measurements are to be carried out. It is clear that for the dynamical methods long arcs (one month or more) are to be used. According to which more errors of modeling of different physical forces such as earth's gravitational field, air drag, solar radiation pressure, and others that may influence the accuracy of the estimation of the satellites position, at the same time the measured errors con be almost completely excluded and high stability in determination of relative coordinate system can be achieved. It is possible to diminish the influence of the errors of modeling by using short-arcs of the satellite orbit (several revolutions or days), but the station's coordinates estimated by different arcs con differ from each other by a larger quantity than statistical zero. Under the semidynamical ‘short arc’ method one or several passes of the satellite in one of simultaneous visibility from both ends of the chord is known and the estimated parameter in this case is the length of the chord. The comparison of the same baselines calculated with long and short arcs methods shows a good agreement and even speaks in favor of the last one. In this paper the Short Arc technique has been explained and 3 baselines have been determined using the ‘short arc’ method.

Keywords: baselines, short arc, dynamical, gravitational field

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Authors: Ceren Ince, Berkay Zafer Erdem, Shahram Derogar, Nabi Yuzer

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Fibre cement plates, often used in construction, generally are made using quartz as an inert material, cement as a binder and cellulose as a fibre. This paper first of all investigates the mechanical properties and durability of fibre cement plates when quartz is both partly and fully replaced with diatomite. Diatomite does not only have lower density compared to quartz but also has high pozzolanic activity. The main objective of this paper is the investigation of the effects of supplementary cementing materials (SCMs) on the short and long term mechanical properties and durability characteristics of fibre cement plates prepared using diatomite. Supplementary cementing materials such as ground granulated blast furnace slug (GGBS) and fly ash (FA) are used in this study. 10, 20, 30 and 40% of GGBS and FA are used as partial replacement materials to cement. Short and long term mechanical properties such as compressive and flexural strengths as well as capillary absorption, sorptivity characteristics and mass were investigated. Consistency and setting time at each replacement levels of SCMs were also recorded. The effects of using supplementary cementing materials on the carbonation and sulphate resistance of fibre cement plates were then experimented. The results, first of all, show that the use of diatomite as a full or partial replacement to quartz resulted in a systematic decrease in total mass of the fibre cement plates. The reduction of mass was largely due to the lower density and finer particle size of diatomite compared to quartz. The use of diatomite did not only reduce the mass of these plates but also increased the compressive strength significantly as a result of its high pozzolanic activity. The replacement levels of both GGBS and FA resulted in a systematic decrease in short term compressive strength with increasing replacement levels. This was essentially expected as the total heat of hydration is much lower in GGBS and FA than that of cement. Long term results however, indicated that the compressive strength of fibre cement plates prepared using both GGBS and FA increases with time and hence the compressive strength of plates prepared using SCMs is either equivalent or more than the compressive strength of plates prepared using cement alone. Durability characteristics of fibre cement plates prepared using SCMs were enhanced significantly. Measurements of capillary absorption and sopritivty characteristics were also indicated that the plates prepared using SCMs has much lower permeability compared to plates prepared cement alone. Much higher resistance to carbonation and sulphate attach were observed with plates prepared using SCMs. The results presented in this paper show that the use of SCMs does not only support the production of more sustainable construction materials but also enhances the mechanical properties and durability characteristics of fibre cement plates.

Keywords: diatomite, fibre, strength, supplementary cementing material

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Authors: Nidhal Mgadmi, Abdelhafidh Othmani

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This article examines the causal relationship between stock indices and cryptocurrencies during the current war between Russia and Ukraine. The econometric investigation runs from February 24, 2022, to April 12, 2023, focusing on seven stock market indices (S&P500, DAX, CAC40, Nikkei, TSX, MOEX, and PFTS) and seven cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litcoin, Dash, Ripple, DigiByte and XEM). In this article, we try to understand how investors react to fluctuations in financial assets to seek safe havens in cryptocurrencies. We used dynamic causality to detect a possible causal relationship in the short term and seven models to estimate the long-term relationship between cryptocurrencies and financial assets. The causal relationship between financial market indexes and cryptocurrency coins in the short run indicates that three famous cryptocurrencies (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, RIPPLE) and the two digital assets with minor popularity (XEM, Digibyte) are impacted by the German, Russian, and Ukrainian stock markets. In the long run, we found a positive and significate effect of the American, Canadian, French, and Ukrainian stock market indexes on Bitcoin. Thus, the stability of the traditional financial markets during the current war period can be explained on the one hand by investors’ fears of an unstable business climate, and on the other hand, by speculators’ sentiment towards new electronic products, which are perceived as hedging instruments and a safe haven in the face of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Keywords: causality, stock indices, cryptocurrency, war, Russia, Ukraine

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Authors: Kyung Min Kang, Peng Mou, Dong Xiang, Yong Yang, Gang Shen

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In this paper, planet pin parallelism error, which is one of manufacturing error of planet carrier, is employed as a main variable to influence planet load sharing factor. This error is categorize two group: (i) pin parallelism error with rotation on the axis perpendicular to the tangent of base circle of gear(x axis rotation in this paper) (ii) pin parallelism error with rotation on the tangent axis of base circle of gear(y axis rotation in this paper). For this study, the planetary gear system in 1.5MW wind turbine is applied and pure torsional rigid body model of this planetary gear is built using Solidworks and MSC.ADAMS. Based on quantified parallelism error and simulation model, dynamics simulation of planetary gear is carried out to obtain dynamic mesh load results with each type of error and load sharing factor is calculated with mesh load results. Load sharing factor formula and the suggestion for planetary reliability design is proposed with the conclusion of this study.

Keywords: planetary gears, planet load sharing, MSC. ADAMS, parallelism error

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Authors: Joanne Joyce-McCoach

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Short courses are an integral part of the higher education sector, providing a pathway into tertiary qualifications. Recently, the Australian government has implemented a range of initiatives to support the development of short courses and micro-credentials designed to upskill the labor market and meet the needs of the healthcare workforce. While short courses have been an ongoing component of Australian nursing continuing professional development, there is an immediate need for more education opportunities as a response to the workforce shortages. However, despite the support for short courses, there are identified challenges for learners undertaking these courses online. As a result of restrictions to face-to-face classes and limited access to health services caused by the pandemic, education providers have had to transition to an online delivery requiring the redesign of skills acquisition. This paper will outline the transition of an immunisation short course to a fully online format, including the redesign of classes, content and assessment. Concurrently the enrolments for the immunisation short course substantially increased in direct response to the demand for nurse immunisers. In addition to providing a description of the curriculum changes implemented, an analysis of learners’ feedback on their experience of the new format will be discussed. Furthermore, it will explore the principles identified in the transition process for improving the short course design and learning activities. Finally, it will propose recommendations to integrate into the delivery of online short courses and to meet the learners' needs.

Keywords: nurse, immunisation, short course, micro-credential, continuing professional development, online design

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Authors: Hamid Rostami Jaz, Kamran Ameri Siahooei

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Up to now different methods have been used to forecast the index returns and the index rate. Artificial intelligence and artificial neural networks have been one of the methods of index returns forecasting. This study attempts to carry out a comparative study on the performance of different Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network to forecast investment returns on the index. To achieve this goal, the return on investment in Tehran Stock Exchange index is evaluated and the performance of Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network are compared. Neural networks performance test is applied based on the least square error in two approaches of in-sample and out-of-sample. The research results show the superiority of the radial base neural network in the in-sample approach and the superiority of perceptron neural network in the out-of-sample approach.

Keywords: exchange index, forecasting, perceptron neural network, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Dany I. Doughan, Nizam S. Najd

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Different governments in today’s global pandemic are approaching the challenging and complex issue of mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus differently while simultaneously considering their national economic and operational bottom lines. One of the most notable successes has been Taiwan's multifaceted virus containment approach, which resulted in a substantially lower incidence rate compared to Sweden’s chief mitigation tactic of herd immunity. From a classic Swiss Cheese Model perspective, integrating more fail-safe layers of defense against the virus in Taiwan’s approach compared to Sweden’s meant that in Taiwan, the government did not have to resort to extreme measures like the national lockdown Sweden is currently contemplating. From an optimized virus spread mitigation solution development standpoint using the Solutions Principle, the Taiwanese and Swedish solutions were desirable economically by businesses that remained open and non-economically or socially by individuals who enjoyed fewer disruptions from what they considered normal before the pandemic. Out of the two, the Taiwanese approach was more feasible long-term from a workforce management and quality control perspective for healthcare facilities and their professionals who were able to provide better, longer, more attentive care to the fewer new positive COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, the Taiwanese approach was more applicable as an overall model to emulate thanks in part to its short-term and long-term multilayered approach, which allows for the kind of flexibility needed by other governments to fully or partially adapt or adopt said, model. The Swedish approach, on the other hand, ignored the biochemical nature of the virus and relied heavily on short-term personal behavioral adjustments and conduct modifications, which are not as reliable as establishing required societal norms and awareness programs. The available international data on COVID-19 cases and the published governmental approaches to control the spread of the coronavirus support a better fit into the Solutions Principle of Taiwan’s Swiss Cheese Model success story compared to Sweden’s.

Keywords: coronavirus containment and mitigation, solutions principle, Swiss Cheese Model, viral mutation

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Authors: Auwal Mustapha Imam

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The aim of the energy management system is to monitor and control utilization, access, optimize and manage energy availability. This can be realized through real-time analyses and energy sources and loads data control in a predictive way. Smart-home monitoring and control provide convenience and cost savings by controlling appliances, lights, thermostats and other loads. There may be different categories of loads in the various homes, and the homeowner may wish to control access to solar-generated energy to protect the storage from draining completely. Controlling the power system operation by managing the converter output power and controlling how it feeds the appliances will satisfy the residential load demand. The Internet of Things (IoT) provides an attractive technological platform to connect the two and make home automation and domestic energy utilization easier and more attractive. This paper presents the use of IoT-based control topology to monitor and control power distribution and consumption by DC loads connected to single-input multiple outputs (SIMO) DC-DC converter, thereby reducing leakages, enhancing performance and reducing human efforts. A SIMO converter was first developed and integrated with the IoT/Raspberry Pi control topology, which enables the user to monitor and control power scheduling and load forecasting via an Android app.

Keywords: flyback, converter, DC-DC, photovoltaic, SIMO

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Authors: Zaouche Khelil, Talha Abdelaziz, Berkouk El Madjid

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In this paper, we present a grid-tied photovoltaic system. The studied topology is structured around a seven-level inverter, supplying a non-linear load. A three-stage step-up DC/DC converter ensures DC-link balancing. The presented system allows the extraction of all the available photovoltaic power. This extracted energy feeds the local load; the surplus energy is injected into the electrical network. During poor weather conditions, where the photovoltaic panels cannot meet the energy needs of the load, the missing power is supplied by the electrical network. At the common connexion point, the network current shows excellent spectral performances.

Keywords: seven-level inverter, multi-level DC/DC converter, photovoltaic, non-linear load

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Authors: Jongho Park, Ui-Cheol Shin, Jinwoong Choi, Sungnam Hong, Sun-Kyu Park

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While the numerous structures built the industrialization are aging, the effort for the maintenance is concentrated in many countries. However, the traffic jam, environmental damage, and enormous maintenance cost, and etc become a problem. So, in order to solve this, the modular bridge has been studied. This bridge is the structure which utilizes and assembles the standard precast member. Through this, the substitution of the existing bridge and advantage of the easy maintenance will be achieved. However, the reliability in the long-term behavior is insufficient due to the junction part between modular precast members. Therefore, in this research, the cyclic load loading experiment was performed on the junction and deflection was analyzed by long-term service in modular slab connection. The deflection of modular slab with junction was mostly generated when initial and final test.

Keywords: modular bridge, deflection, cyclic loading, junction

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Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Maria G. Serna-Diaz, Juan C. Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Irving Barragán-Vite

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Wind speed forecasting is an important issue for planning wind power generation facilities. The accuracy in the wind speed prediction allows a good performance of wind turbines for electricity generation. A model based on artificial neural networks is presented in this work. A dataset with atmospheric information about air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in Pachuca, Hidalgo, México, was used to train the artificial neural network. The data was downloaded from the web page of the National Meteorological Service of the Mexican government. The records were gathered for three months, with time intervals of ten minutes. This dataset was used to develop an iterative algorithm to create 1,110 ANNs, with different configurations, starting from one to three hidden layers and every hidden layer with a number of neurons from 1 to 10. Each ANN was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, which is used to learn the relationship between input and output values. The model with the best performance contains three hidden layers and 9, 6, and 5 neurons, respectively; and the coefficient of determination obtained was r²=0.9414, and the Root Mean Squared Error is 1.0559. In summary, the ANN approach is suitable to predict the wind speed in Pachuca City because the r² value denotes a good fitting of gathered records, and the obtained ANN model can be used in the planning of wind power generation grids.

Keywords: wind power generation, artificial neural networks, wind speed, coefficient of determination

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Authors: Sirus Mohammadi, Sara Ansari, Darush dehghan, Habib Hoshyari

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Batteries for storage of electricity from solar and wind generation farms are a key element in the success of sustainability. In recent years, due to large integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) like wind turbine and photovoltaic unit into the Micro-Grid (MG), the necessity of Battery Energy Storage (BES) has increased dramatically. The BES has several benefits and advantages in the MG-based applications such as short term power supply, power quality improvement, facilitating integration of RES, ancillary service and arbitrage. This paper presents the cost-based formulation to determine the optimal size of the BES in the operation management of MG. Also, some restrictions, i.e. power capacity of Distributed Generators (DGs), power and energy capacity of BES, charge/discharge efficiency of BES, operating reserve and load demand satisfaction should be considered as well. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the optimal allocation and economic analysis of ESS in MGs on the basis of net present value (NPV). As the optimal operation of an MG strongly depends on the arrangement and allocation of its ESS, economic operation strategies and optimal allocation methods of the ESS devices are required for the MG.

Keywords: microgrid, energy storage system, optimal sizing, net present value

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Authors: S. Siddharth, Saravana Kumar

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All Metros across the world tend to have a large number of bridges and there have been concerns about the safety of these bridges. As the traffic in most cities in India is heterogeneous, Trucks and Heavy vehicles traverse on our roads on an everyday basis this will lead to structural damage on the long run. All bridges are designed with a maximum Load limit and this limit is seldom checked. We have hence come up with an idea to check the load of all the vehicles entering the bridge and block the bridge with barricades if the vehicle surpasses the maximum load , this is done to catch hold of the perpetrators. By doing this we can avoid further structural damage and also provide an effective way to enforce the law. If our solution is put in place structural damage and accidents would be reduced to a great deal and it would also make the law enforcement job easier.

Keywords: heterogeneous, structural, load, law, heavy, vehicles

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Authors: M. Akhondizadeh, Mohsen Khajoei, Mojtaba Khajoei

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The purpose of the present work was the design of a towing machine which was decided to be manufactured by Arman Gohar-e-Sirjan company in the Gol-e-Gohar iron ore complex in Iran. The load analysis has been conducted to determine the static and dynamic loads at the critical conditions. The inertial forces due to the velocity increment and road bump have been considered in load evaluation. The form of loading of the present machine is hauling and/or conveying the mineral machines on the mini ramp. Several stages of these forms of loading, from the initial touch of the tow and carried machine to the final position, have been assessed to determine the critical state. The stress analysis has been performed by the ANSYS software. Several geometries for the main load-carrying elements have been analyzed to have the optimum design by the minimum weight of the structure. Finally, a structure with a total weight of 38 tons has been designed with a static load-carrying capacity of 80 tons by considering the 40 tons additional capacity for dynamic effects. The stress analysis for 120 tons load gives the minimum safety factor of 1.18.

Keywords: mechanical design, stress analysis, tow structure, dynamic load, static load

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Authors: Ahmed Hariri

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E-Learning has become a necessity in the advanced education. It is easier for the student and teacher communication also it speed up the process with less time and less effort. With the progress and the enormous development of distance education must keep up with this age of making a website that allows students and teachers to take all the advantages of advanced education. In this regards, we developed University Short courses web application which is specially designed for Faculty of computing and information technology, Rabigh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. After an elaborate review of the current state-of-the-art methods of teaching and learning, we found that instructors deliver extra short courses and workshop to students to enhance the knowledge of students. Moreover, this process is completely manual. The prevailing methods of teaching and learning consume a lot of time; therefore in this context, University Short courses web application will help to make process easy and user friendly. The site allows for students can view and register short courses online conducted by instructor also they can see courses starting dates, finishing date and locations. It also allows the instructor to put things on his courses on the site and see the students enrolled in the study material. Finally, student can print the certificate after finished the course online. ASP.NET, SQLSERVER, JavaScript SQL SERVER Database will use to develop the University Short Courses web application.

Keywords: e-learning, short courses, ASP.NET, SQL SERVER

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Authors: Mina Mortazavi, Hamid Ronagh, Pezhman Sharafi

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The new concept of a cold formed-hot rolled hybrid steel wall panel system is introduced to overcome the deficiency in lateral load resisting capacity of cold-formed steel structures. The hybrid system is composed of a cold-formed steel part laterally connected to hot rolled part. The hot rolled steel part is responsible for carrying the whole lateral load; while the cold formed steel part is only required to transfer the lateral load to the hot rolled part without any local failure. The vertical load is beared by both hot rolled, and cold formed steel part, proportionally. In order to investigate the lateral performance of the proposed system, it should be tested under simultaneous lateral and vertical load. The main concern is to deliver the loads to each part during the test to simulate the real load distribution in the structure. In this paper, a detailed description of the proposed wall panel system and the designed testing rig is provided.

Keywords: cold-formed steel, hybrid system, wall panel system, testing rig design

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Authors: Ananya Pal, Neelakshi Sarkar, Debraj Saha, Dipanwita Das, Subhashish Kamal Guha, Bibhuti Saha, Runu Chakravarty

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Presently, tenofovir disoproxil fumurate (TDF) is the most effective anti-viral agent for the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in individuals co-infected with HIV and HBV as TDF has activity to suppress both wild-type and lamivudine (3TC)-resistant HBV. However, suboptimal response to TDF was reported in HIV-HBV co-infected individuals with prior 3TC therapy from different countries recently. The incidence of 3TC-resistant HBV strains is quite high in HIV-HBV co-infected patients experiencing long-term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in eastern India. In spite of this risk, most of the patients with long-term 3TC treatment are continued with the same anti-viral agent in this country. Only a few have received TDF in addition to 3TC in the ART regimen since TDF has been available in India for the treatment of HIV-infected patients in 2012. In this preliminary study, we investigated the virologic and biochemical parameters among HIV-HBV co-infected patients who are non-responders to 3TC treatment during the continuation of 3TC or TDF add-on to 3TC in their ART regimen. Fifteen HIV-HBV co-infected patients who experienced long-term 3TC (mean duration months 36.87 ± 24.08 months) were identified with high HBV viremia ( > 20,000 IU/ml) or harbouring 3TC-resistant HBV. These patients receiving ART from School of Tropical Medicine Kolkata, the main ART centre in eastern India were followed-up semi-annually for next three visits. Different virologic parameters including quantification of plasma HBV load by real-time PCR, detection of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) by commercial ELISA and anti-viral resistant mutations by sequencing were studied. During three follow-up among study subjects, 86%, 47%, and 43% had 3TC-mono-therapy (mean treatment-duration 41.54±18.84, 49.67±11.67, 54.17±12.37 months respectively) whereas 14%, 53%, and 57% experienced TDF in addition to 3TC (mean treatment duration 4.5±2.12, 16.56±11.06, and 23±4.07 months respectively). Mean CD4 cell-count in patients receiving 3TC was tended to be lower during third follow-up as compared to the first and the second [520.67±380.30 (1st), 454.8±196.90 (2nd), and 397.5±189.24 (3rd) cells/mm3) and similar trend was seen in patients experiencing TDF in addition to 3TC [334.5±330.218 (1st), 476.5±194.25 (2nd), and 461.17±269.89 (3rd) cells/mm3]. Serum HBV load was increased during successive follow-up of patients with 3TC-mono-therapy. Initiation of TDF lowered serum HBV-load among 3TC-non-responders at the time of second visit ( < 2,000 IU/ml), interestingly during third follow-up, mean HBV viremia increased >1 log IU/ml (mean 3.56±2.84 log IU/ml). Persistence of 3TC-resistant double and triple mutations was also observed in both the treatment regimens. Mean serum alanine aminotransferase remained elevated in these patients during this follow-up study. Persistence of high HBV viraemia and 3TC-resistant mutation in HBV during the continuation of 3TC might lead to major public health threat in India. The inclusion of TDF in the ART regimen of 3TC non-responder HIV-HBV co-infected patients showed adverse treatment response in terms of virologic and biochemical parameters. Therefore, serious attention is necessary for proper management of long-term 3TC experienced HIV-HBV co-infected patients with high HBV viraemia or 3TC-resistant HBV mutants in India.

Keywords: HBV, HIV, TDF, 3TC-resistant

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Authors: Hirseland Andreas, Kerschbaumer Lukas

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In the case of Germany, there are about one million long-term unemployed – a figure that did not vary much during the past years. These long-term unemployed did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short-term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long-term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to become employed again, especially if it is accompanied by other impediments such as low-level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. As can be shown by this current research project, in these cases the chance to regain employment decreases to near nil. Almost two-thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Prospective employers are unlikely to hire long-term unemployed with additional impediments because they evaluate potential employees on their negative signaling (e.g. low-level education) and the implicit assumption of unproductiveness (e.g. poor health, age). Some findings of the panel survey “Labor market and social security” (PASS) carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency) spread a ray of hope, showing that unlikely does not necessarily mean impossible. The presentation reports on current research on these very scarce “success stories” of unlikely transitions from long-term unemployment to work and how these cases were able to perform this switch against all odds. The study is based on a mixed-method design. Within the panel survey (~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions were observed. These cases have been explored by qualitative inquiry – in depth-interviews and qualitative network techniques. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by certain biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting the labor market and their impact on welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small-scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation (e.g. organizing small-scale-structures and low-threshold services to encounter possible employers on a more informal basis like “meet and greet”).

Keywords: against-all-odds, mixed-methods, Welfare State, long-term unemployment

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Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Renu Dhir

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Climate prediction is an essential component of climate research, which helps evaluate possible effects on economies, communities, and ecosystems. Climate prediction involves short-term weather prediction, seasonal prediction, and long-term climate change prediction. Climate prediction can use the information gathered from satellites, ground-based stations, and ocean buoys, among other sources. The paper's four architectures, such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception, have been combined using an ensemble approach for overall performance and robustness. An ensemble of different models makes a prediction, and the majority vote determines the final prediction. The various architectures such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception efficiently classify the dataset RSI-CB256, which contains satellite images into cloudy and non-cloudy. The generated ensembled S-E model (Sar-ensembled model) provides an accuracy of 99.25%.

Keywords: climate, satellite images, prediction, classification

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Authors: Byung hyun Bae

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In power transformer, leakage magnetic flux generate temperature rise of inner steel plate. Sometimes, this temperature rise can be serious problem. If temperature of steel plate is over critical point, harmful gas will be generated in the tank. And this gas can be a reason of fire, explosion and life decrease. So, temperature rise forecasting of steel plate is very important at the design stage of power transformer. To improve accuracy of forecasting of temperature rise, comparison between simulation and experiment achieved in this paper.

Keywords: power transformer, steel plate, temperature rise, experiment, simulation

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Authors: Mohammad Bagher Heidari, Hefzollah Mohammadian

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TETRA (Terrestrial Trunked Radio) is a digital radio communication standard, which has been implemented in several different parts of the gas refinery ninth (phase 12th) by South Pars Gas Complex. Studies on possible impacts on the users' health considering different exposure conditions are missing. Objectives: To investigate possible acute effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF) of two different levels of TETRA hand-held transmitter signals on cognitive function and well-being in healthy young males. Methods: In the present double-blind cross-over study possible effects of short-term (2.5 h) EMF exposure of handset-like signals of TETRA (450 - 470 MHz) were studied in 30 healthy male participants (mean ± SD: 25.4 ±2.6 years). Individuals were tested on nine study days, on which they were exposed to three different exposure conditions (Sham, TETRA 1.5 W/kg and TETRA 10.0 W/kg) in a randomly assigned and balanced order. Participants were tested in the afternoon at a fixed timeframe. Results: Attention remained unchanged in two out of three tasks. In the working memory, significant changes were observed in two out of four subtasks. Significant results were found in 5 out of 35 tested parameters, four of them led to an improvement in performance. Mood, well-being and subjective somatic complaints were not affected by TETRA exposure. Conclusions: The results of the present study do not indicate a negative impact of a short-term EMF- effect of TETRA on cognitive function and well-being in healthy young men.

Keywords: TETRA (terrestrial trunked radio), electromagnetic fields (EMF), mobile telecommunication health research (MTHR), antenna

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Authors: Benalia Nadia, Bensiali Nadia, Zerzouri Noura

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This paper presents an analysis of the effects of parameters np and nq for exponential load on the transmission line voltage profile, transferred power and transmission losses for different shunt compensation size. For different values for np and nq in which active and reactive power vary with it is terminal voltages as in exponential form, variations of the load voltage for different sizes of shunt capacitors are simulated with a simple two-bus power system using Matlab SimPowerSystems Toolbox. It is observed that the compensation level is significantly affected by the voltage sensitivities of loads.

Keywords: static load model, shunt compensation, transmission system, exponentiel load model

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Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

Abstract:

We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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Authors: Neritan Shkodrani, Klearta Rrushi, Anxhela Shaha

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Generally, the design of axial load capacity of deep foundations is based on the data provided from field tests, such as SPT (Standard Penetration Test) and CPT (Cone Penetration Test) tests. This paper reports the results of axial load capacity analysis of drilled shafts at a construction site at Semani, in Fier county, Fier prefecture in Albania. In this case, the axial load capacity analyses are based on the data of 416 SPT tests and 12 CPTU tests, which are carried out in this site construction using 12 boreholes (10 borings of a depth 30.0 m and 2 borings of a depth of 80.0m). The considered foundation widths range from 0.5m to 2.5 m and foundation embedment lengths is fixed at a value of 25m. SPT – based analytical methods from the Japanese practice of design (Building Standard Law of Japan) and CPT – based analytical Eslami and Fellenius methods are used for obtaining axial ultimate load capacity of drilled shafts. The considered drilled shaft (25m long and 0.5m - 2.5m in diameter) is analyzed for the soil conditions of each borehole. The values obtained from sets of calculations are shown in different charts. Then the reported axial load capacity values acquired from SPT and CPTU data are compared and some conclusions are found related to the mentioned methods of calculations.

Keywords: deep foundations, drilled shafts, axial load capacity, ultimate load capacity, allowable load capacity, SPT test, CPTU test

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Authors: Saeed Rahjoo, Babak H. Mamaqani

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Concentric bracing systems have been in practice for many years because of their effectiveness in reducing seismic response. Depending on concept, seismic design codes provide various response modification factors (R), which itself consists of different terms, for different types of lateral load bearing systems but configuration of these systems are often ignored in the proposed values. This study aims at considering the effect of different x-bracing diagonal configuration on values of ductility dependent term in R computation. 51 models were created and nonlinear push over analysis has been performed. The main variables of this study were the suitable location of X–bracing diagonal configurations, which establishes better nonlinear behavior in concentric braced steel frames. Results show that some x-bracing diagonal configurations improve the seismic performance of CBF significantly and explicit consideration of lateral load bearing systems seems necessary.

Keywords: bracing configuration, concentrically braced frame (CBF), push over analyses, response reduction factor

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Authors: Andrzej Wałęga, Marta Cebulska, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Wojciech Młocek, Agnieszka Wałęga, Tommaso Caloiero

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Drought is one of the natural phenomena influencing many aspects of human activities like food production, agriculture, industry, and the ecological conditions of the environment. In the area of the Polish Carpathians, there are periods with a deficit of rainwater and an increasing frequency in dry months, especially in the cold half of the year. The aim of this work is a spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as SPI in a heterogenous area of the Polish Carpathian and of the highland Region in the Central part of Europe based on long-term precipitation data. Also, to our best knowledge, for the first time in this work, drought characteristics analyzed via the SPI were discussed based on the atmospheric circulation calendar. The study region is the Upper Vistula Basin, located in the southern and south-eastern part of Poland. In this work, monthly precipitation from 56 rainfall stations was analysed from 1961 to 2022. The 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used as indicators of meteorological drought. For the 3-month SPI, the main climatic mechanisms determining extreme droughts were defined based on the calendar of synoptic circulations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trend of extreme droughts. Statistically significant trends of SPI were observed on 52.7% of all analyzed stations, and in most cases, a positive trend was observed. Statistically significant trends were more frequently observed in stations located in the western part of the analyzed region. Long-term droughts, represented by the 12-month SPI, occurred in all stations but not in all years. Short-term droughts (3-month SPI) were most frequent in the winter season, 6 and 9-month SPI in winter and spring, and 12-month SPI in winter and autumn, respectively. The spatial distribution of drought was highly diverse. The most intensive drought occurred in 1984, with the 6-month SPI covering 98% of the analyzed region and the 9 and 12-month SPI covering 90% of the entire region. Droughts exhibit a seasonal pattern, with a dominant 10-year periodicity for all analyzed variants of SPI. Additionally, Fourier analysis revealed a 2-year periodicity for the 3-, 6-, and 9-month SPI and a 31-year periodicity for the 12-month SPI. The results provide insights into the typical climatic conditions in Poland, with strong seasonality in precipitation. The study highlighted that short-term extreme droughts, represented by the 3-month SPI, are often caused by anticyclonic situations with high-pressure wedges Ka and Wa, and anticyclonic West as observed in 52.3% of cases. These findings are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of short and long-term extreme droughts in Central Europe, particularly for the agriculture sector dominant in the northern part of the analyzed region, where drought frequency is highest.

Keywords: atmospheric circulation, drought, precipitation, SPI, the Upper Vistula Basin

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Authors: Ahmed Mohamed Nasr, Waseim Ragab Azzam, Nada Osama Ramadan

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Contaminated soil can weaken the stability of buildings and infrastructure, posing serious risks to their structural integrity. Therefore, this study aims to understand how oil contamination affects the torsion behavior of model steel piles at different soil densities. This research is crucial for evaluating the structural integrity and stability of piles in oil-contaminated environments. Clean sand samples and heavy motor oil were mixed in amounts ranging from 0 to 6% of the soil's dry weight. The mixture was thoroughly mixed to ensure uniform distribution of the oil throughout the sandy soil for simulating the field conditions. In these investigations, the relative densities (Dr), pile slenderness ratio (Lp/Dp), oil content (O.C%), and contaminated sand layer thickness (LC) were all different. Also, the paper presents an analysis of piles that are loaded both vertically and torsionally. The findings demonstrated that the pre-applied torsion load led to a decrease in the vertical bearing ability of the pile. Also, at Dr = 80%, the ultimate vertical load under combined load at constant torsional load T = (1/3Tu, 2/3Tu, and Tu) in the cases of (Lc/Lp) = 0.5 and (Lp/Dp) =13.3 was found to be reduced by (1.48, 2.78, and 4.15%) less than piles under independent vertical load, respectively so it is crucial to consider the torsion load during pile design.

Keywords: torsion-vertical load, oil-contaminated sand, twist angle, steel pile

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Authors: Muhammad A. Alsubaie

Abstract:

An iterative learning control framework designed in state feedback structure suffers a lack in investigating load disturbance considerations. The presented work discusses the controller previously designed, highlights the disturbance problem, finds new conditions using singular value principle to assure safe operation conditions with error convergence and reference tracking under the influence of load disturbance. It is known that periodic disturbances can be represented by a delay model in a positive feedback loop acting on the system input. This model can be manipulated by isolating the delay model and finding a controller for the overall system around the delay model to remedy the periodic disturbances using the small signal theorem. The overall system is the base for control design and load disturbance investigation. The major finding of this work is the load disturbance condition found which clearly sets safe operation condition under the influence of load disturbances such that the error tends to nearly zero as the system keeps operating trial after trial.

Keywords: iterative learning control, singular values, state feedback, load disturbance

Procedia PDF Downloads 149