Search results for: risk priority number

Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment

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Authors: Mohamed Hamada Abdelkader Fayed

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Background: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a screening test to exclude AAS. Methods: We conducted research for the studies examining the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD- RS)+ D-dimer to exclude the diagnosis of AAS, We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane of Trials up to 31 December 2020. Results: We identified 3 studies using (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a diagnostic tool for AAS, involving 3261 patients were AAS was diagnosed in 559(17.14%) patients. Overall results showed that the pooled sensitivities were 97.6 (95% CI 0.95.6, 99.6) at (ADD-RS)≤1(low risk group) with D-dimer and 97.4(95% CI 0.95.4,, 99.4) at (ADD-RS)>1(High risk group) with D-dimer., the failure rate was 0.48% at low risk group and 4.3% at high risk group respectively. Conclusions: (ADD-RS) with D-dimer was a useful screening test with high sensitivity to exclude Acute Aortic Syndrome.

Keywords: aortic dissection detection risk score, D-dimer, acute aortic syndrome, diagnostic accuracy

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Abderrahmen Aloulou, Younes Boujelbene

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The current paper displays a new method of extracting information content from options prices by eliminating biases caused by daily variation of contract maturity. Based on Kernel regression tool, this non-parametric technique serves to obtain a spectrum of interpolated options with constant maturity horizons from negotiated optional contracts on the S&P TSX 60 index. This method makes it plausible to compare daily risk neutral densities from which extracting time continuous indicators allows the detection traders attitudes’ evolution, such as, belief homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme Risk Perception. Our findings indicate that the applied method contribute to develop effective trading strategies and to adjust monetary policies through controlling trader’s reactions to economic and monetary news.

Keywords: risk neutral densities, kernel, constant maturity horizons, homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme risk perception

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Abeer Kharshid, Nor Azizah Aziz, Tarek M. Elsayed

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Medication safety is always an issue. In 2015, the National Pharmaceutical Control Bureau released a statement requesting all statins manufacturers in Malaysia to include the risk of diabetes information in the drug information leaflet in response to United States Food and Drug Administration (U.S. FDA) report. However, the data regarding this warning label in Malaysia is limited, so there is still some uncertainty whether such risk can also be observed in the Malaysian population or not. The study aims to determine the effect of statins on HbA1c% in type 2 diabetic outpatients in endocrine clinics at Hospital Pulau Pinang between June 2015 and May 2016 in Malaysia. In a prospective cohort study, records of 400 type 2 diabetic patients (control group 104 patients not using statin and treatment group 296 patients using statin) were reviewed to identify demographic criteria and lab tests. The prevalence of glycemic control (Glycated hemoglobin, HbA1C ≤ 7% for patient < 65 years, and < 8% for patient ≥ 65 years) was estimated, according to American Diabetes Association guidelines 2015. The results were presented as descriptive statistics. From 296 patients with Type 2 diabetes using statins cohort with a mean age of 57.52 ± 12.2 years, only 81 (27.4%) cases had controlled glycemia, and 215 (72.6%) had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (6.3–11.1). While the control group 104 diabetic patients had a mean age 46.1 ± 18 years and distributed among 59 (56.7%) patients with controlled diabetes and 45 (43.3%) cases, had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (5.2–10.3). The relative risk (RR) of uncontrolled glycemia in diabetic patients used statins was 1.68, and the excessive relative risk (ERR) was 68%. The absolute risk (AR) was 29.3%, and the number needed to harm (NNH) was 4. Diabetic patients using statins have more risk of uncontrolled glycemia than the patients with Type 2 diabetes non-using statins.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, HbA1c, Malaysia, outpatients, statin, type 2, uncontrolled glycemia

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Sarah A. Harris, Fleur L. McIntyre, Paola T. Chivers, Benjamin G. Piggott, Fiona H. Farringdon

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Australian Rules Football (ARF) is an invasion based, contact field sport with over one million participants. The contact nature of the game increases exposure to all injuries, including head trauma. Evidence suggests that both concussion and sub-concussive traumas such as head knocks may damage the brain, in particular the prefrontal cortex. The prefrontal cortex may not reach full maturity until a person is in their early twenties with males taking longer to mature than females. Repeated trauma to the pre-frontal cortex during maturation may lead to negative social, cognitive and emotional effects. It is also during this period that males exhibit high levels of risk taking behaviours. Risk propensity and the incidence of injury is an unexplored area of research. Little research has considered if the level of player’s (especially younger players) risk propensity in everyday life places them at an increased risk of injury. Hence the current study, investigated if a relationship exists between risk propensity and self-reported injuries including diagnosed concussion and head knocks, among male ARF players aged 18 to 31 years. Method: The study was conducted over 22 weeks with one West Australian Football League (WAFL) club during the 2015 competition. Pre-season risk propensity was measured using the 7-item self-report Risk Propensity Scale. Possible scores ranged from 9 to 63, with higher scores indicating higher risk propensity. Players reported their self-perceived injuries (concussion, head knocks, upper body and lower body injuries) fortnightly using the WAFL Injury Report Survey (WIRS). A unique ID code was used to ensure player anonymity, which also enabled linkage of survey responses and injury data tracking over the season. A General Linear Model (GLM) was used to analyse whether there was a relationship between risk propensity score and total number of injuries for each injury type. Results: Seventy one players (N=71) with an age range of 18.40 to 30.48 years and a mean age of 21.92 years (±2.96 years) participated in the study. Player’s mean risk propensity score was 32.73, SD ±8.38. Four hundred and ninety five (495) injuries were reported. The most frequently reported injury was head knocks representing 39.19% of total reported injuries. The GLM identified a significant relationship between risk propensity and head knocks (F=4.17, p=.046). No other injury types were significantly related to risk propensity. Discussion: A positive relationship between risk propensity and head trauma in contact sports (specifically WAFL) was discovered. Assessing player’s risk propensity therefore, may identify those more at risk of head injuries. Potentially leading to greater monitoring and education of these players throughout the season, regarding self-identification of head knocks and symptoms that may indicate trauma to the brain. This is important because many players involved in WAFL are in their late teens or early 20’s hence, may be at greater risk of negative outcomes if they experience repeated head trauma. Continued education and research into the risks associated with head injuries has the potential to improve player well-being.

Keywords: football, head injuries, injury identification, risk

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Authors: Hans Tjio, Wee Meng Seng

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The interaction of contract and property has always been a concern in corporate and commercial law, where there are internal structures created that may not match the externally perceived image generated by the labels attached to those structures. We will focus, in particular, on the priority structures created by affirmative asset partitioning, which have increasingly come under challenge by those attempting to negotiate around them. The most prominent has been the AT1 bonds issued by Credit Suisse which were wiped out before its equity when the troubled bank was acquired by UBS. However, this should not have come as a surprise to those whose “bonds” had similarly been “redeemed” upon the occurrence of certain reference events in countries like Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan during their Minibond crisis linked to US sub-prime defaults. These were derivatives classified as debentures and sold as such. At the same time, we are again witnessing “liabilities” seemingly ranking higher up the balance sheet ladder, finding themselves lowered in events of default. We will examine the mechanisms holders of perpetual securities or preference shares have tried to use to protect themselves. This is happening against a backdrop that sees a rise in the strength of private credit and inter-creditor conflicts. The restructuring regime of the hybrid scheme in Singapore now, while adopting the absolute priority rule in Chapter 11 as the quid pro quo for creditor cramdown, does not apply to shareholders and so exempts them from cramdown. Complicating the picture further, shareholders are not exempted from cramdown in the Dutch scheme, but it adopts a relative priority rule. At the same time, the important UK Supreme Court decision in BTI 2014 LLC v Sequana [2022] UKSC 25 has held that directors’ duties to take account of creditor interests are activated only when a company is almost insolvent. All this has been complicated by digital assets created by businesses. Investors are quite happy to have them classified as property (like a thing) when it comes to their transferability, but then when the issuer defaults to have them seen as a claim on the business (as a choice in action), that puts them at the level of a creditor. But these hidden interests will not show themselves on an issuer’s balance sheet until it is too late to be considered and yet if accepted, may also prevent any meaningful restructuring.

Keywords: asset partitioning, creditor priority, restructuring, BTI v Sequana, digital assets

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Kyriacos Clerides, Panagiotis Herodotou, Constantina Polycarpou, Evagoras Xydas

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Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in the workplace is a very common problem in Europe which are caused by multiple risk factors. In recent years, wearable devices and exoskeletons for the workplace have been trying to address the various risk factors that are associated with strenuous tasks in the workplace. The logistics sector is a huge sector that includes warehousing, storage, and transportation. However, the task associated with logistics is not well-studied in terms of MSDs risk. This study was aimed at looking into the MSDs affecting workers of logistics companies. It compares the prevalence of MSDs among workers and evaluates multiple risk factors that contribute to the development of MSDs. Moreover, this study seeks to obtain user feedback on the adoption of exoskeletons in such a work environment. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted among workers in logistics companies in Nicosia, Cyprus, from July to September 2022. A set of standardized questionnaires was used for collecting different types of data. Results: A high proportion of logistics professionals reported MSDs in one or more other body regions, the lower back being the most commonly affected area. Working in the same position for long periods, working in awkward postures, and handling an excessive load, were found to be the most commonly reported job risk factor that contributed to the development of MSDs, in this study. A significant number of participants consider the back region as the most to be benefited from a wearable exoskeleton device. Half of the participants would like to have at least a 50% reduction in their daily effort. The most important characteristics for the adoption of exoskeleton devices were found to be how comfortable the device is and its weight. Conclusion: Lower back and posture were the highest risk factors among all logistics professionals assessed in this study. A larger scale study using quantitative analytical tools may give a more accurate estimate of MSDs, which would pave the way for making more precise recommendations to eliminate the risk factors and thereby prevent MSDs. A follow-up study using exoskeletons in the workplace should be done to assess whether they assist in MSD prevention.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, occupational health, safety, occupational risk, logistic companies, workers, Cyprus, industrial exoskeletons, wearable devices

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Hala M. El-hanbuli, Mohammed F. Darweesh

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The incidence rates of any tumor vary hugely with geographical location. Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC) is one of the most common skin cancer that has many histopathologic subtypes. Objective: The aim was to study the histopathological features of BCC cases that were received in the Pathology Department, Kasr El-Aini hospital, Cairo University, Egypt during the period from Jan 2004 to Dec 2013 and to evaluate the clinical characters through the patient data available in the request sheets. Methods: Slides and data of BCC cases were collected from the archives of the pathology department, Kasr El-Aini hospital. Revision of all available slides and histological classification of BCC according to WHO (2006) was done. Results: A total number of 310 cases of BCC representing about 65% from the total number of malignant skin tumors examined during the 10-years duration in the department. The age ranged from 8 to 84 years, the mean age was (55.7 ± 15.5). Most of the patients (85%) were above the age of 40 years. There was a slight male predominance (55%). Ulcerated BCC was the most common gross picture (60%), followed by nodular lesion (30%) and finally the ulcerated nodule (10%). Most of the lesions situated in the high-risk sites (77%) where the nose was the most common site (35%) followed by the periocular area (22%), then periauricular (15%) and finally perioral (5%). No lesion was reported outside the head. The tumor size was less than 2 centimeters in 65% of cases, and from 2-5 centimeters in the lesions' greatest dimension in the rest of cases. Histopathological reclassification revealed that the nodular BCC was the most common (68%) followed by the pigmented nodular (18.75%). The histologic high-risk groups represented (7.5%) about half of them (3.75%) being basosquamous carcinoma. The total incidence for multiple BCC and 2nd primary was 12%. Recurrent BCC represented 8%. All of the recurrent lesions of BCC belonged to the histologic high-risk group. Conclusion: Basal Cell Carcinoma is the most common skin cancer in the 10-year survey. Histopathological diagnosis and classification of BCC cases are essential for the determination of the tumor type and its biological behavior.

Keywords: basal cell carcinoma, high risk, histopathological features, statistical analysis

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Authors: Prima Fithri, Afri Adnan, Verra Syahmer

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Library as a public service should be able to provide excellent and quality service. The criteria that should be available in the library is having the collection which relevant, actual and reliable, qualified and professional employee, delivery system that prompt and appropriate as well as supported by proper infrastructure. The aim of this study is to show the performance as an effort to provide quality of services that appropriate with the needs and desires of user. Then, in this research has been carried out the calculation of the gap between the perceptions and expectations of user about the services of the library. The Sevqual and QFD methods are used in this study. Servqual method for measuring the value of the gap that occurs in the dimensions of service quality and QFD method for determine priority repairment that need to be done to improve the quality of services that occur in the dimensions of service quality. From 97 questionaires, shows that value of the gap that occurs in the dimensions of service quality using by Servqual is 27.7% dimensions of responsiveness. It show how much user expectations are not met by the quality of existing services. Construction of the library and standard library becomes priority improvements that need to be done to improve the quality of service that occurs in the dimensions of service quality using the QFD.

Keywords: library, service quality, service quality, QFD

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Manan’Iarivo Rasolonjanahary, Chris Bingham, Nigel Schofield, Masoud Bazargan

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This paper presents the research and application of model predictive scheduled charging of electric vehicles (EV) subject to limited available power resource. To focus on algorithm and operational characteristics, the EV interface to the source is modelled as a battery state equation during the charging operation. The researched methods allow for the priority scheduling of EV charging in a multi-vehicle regime and when subject to limited source power availability. Priority attribution for each connected EV is described. The validity of the developed methodology is shown through the simulation of different scenarios of charging operation of multiple connected EVs including non-scheduled and scheduled operation with various numbers of vehicles. Performance of the developed algorithms is also reported with the recommendation of the choice of suitable parameters.

Keywords: model predictive control, non-scheduled, power limited sources, scheduled and stop-start battery charging

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Authors: Anuradha Banerjee

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A mobile ad hoc network is an infrastructure less network, where nodes are free to move independently in any direction. The nodes have limited battery power; hence, we require energy efficient route discovery technique to enhance their lifetime and network performance. In this paper, we propose an energy-efficient route discovery technique CERD that greatly reduces the number of route requests flooded into the network and also gives priority to the route request packets sent from the routers that has communicated with the destination very recently, in single or multi-hop paths. This does not only enhance the lifetime of nodes but also decreases the delay in tracking the destination.

Keywords: ad hoc network, energy efficiency, flooding, node lifetime, route discovery

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Authors: Housein Deli, Loui Al-Shrouf, Hammoud Al Joumaa, Mohieddine Jelali

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When forming metallic materials, fluctuations in material properties, process conditions, and wear lead to deviations in the component geometry. Several hundred features sometimes need to be measured, especially in the case of functional and safety-relevant components. These can only be measured offline due to the large number of features and the accuracy requirements. The risk of producing components outside the tolerances is minimized but not eliminated by the statistical evaluation of process capability and control measurements. The inspection intervals are based on the acceptable risk and are at the expense of productivity but remain reactive and, in some cases, considerably delayed. Due to the considerable progress made in the field of condition monitoring and measurement technology, permanently installed sensor systems in combination with machine learning and artificial intelligence, in particular, offer the potential to independently derive forecasts for component geometry and thus eliminate the risk of defective products - actively and preventively. The reliability of forecasts depends on the quality, completeness, and timeliness of the data. Measuring all geometric characteristics is neither sensible nor technically possible. This paper, therefore, uses the example of car seat rail production to discuss the necessary first step of feature selection and reduction by correlation analysis, as otherwise, it would not be possible to forecast components in real-time and inline. Four different car seat rails with an average of 130 features were selected and measured using a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). The run of such measuring programs alone takes up to 20 minutes. In practice, this results in the risk of faulty production of at least 2000 components that have to be sorted or scrapped if the measurement results are negative. Over a period of 2 months, all measurement data (> 200 measurements/ variant) was collected and evaluated using correlation analysis. As part of this study, the number of characteristics to be measured for all 6 car seat rail variants was reduced by over 80%. Specifically, direct correlations for almost 100 characteristics were proven for an average of 125 characteristics for 4 different products. A further 10 features correlate via indirect relationships so that the number of features required for a prediction could be reduced to less than 20. A correlation factor >0.8 was assumed for all correlations.

Keywords: long-term SHM, condition monitoring, machine learning, correlation analysis, component prediction, wear prediction, regressions analysis

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Anuradha Banerjee

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Energy aware operation is one of the visionary goals in the area of robotics because operability of robots is greatly dependent upon their residual energy. Practically, the tasks allocated to robots carry different priority and often an upper limit of time stamp is imposed within which the task needs to be completed. If a robot is unable to complete one particular task given to it the task is reallocated to some other robot. The collection of robots is controlled by a Central Monitoring Unit (CMU). Selection of the new robot is performed by a fuzzy controller called Task Reallocator (TRAC). It accepts the parameters like residual energy of robots, possibility that the task will be successfully completed by the new robot within stipulated time, distance of the new robot (where the task is reallocated) from distance of the old one (where the task was going on) etc. The proposed methodology increases the probability of completing globally assigned tasks and saves huge amount of energy as far as the collection of robots is concerned.

Keywords: energy-efficiency, fuzzy-controller, priority, reallocation, task

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Authors: Pi-Hsia Hung

Abstract:

The development of mathematical competency has individual benefits as well as benefits to the wider society. Children who begin school behind their peers in their understanding of number, counting, and simple arithmetic are at high risk of staying behind throughout their schooling. The development of effective strategies for improving the educational trajectory of these individuals will be contingent on identifying areas of early quantitative knowledge that influence later mathematics achievement. A computer-based quantity assessment was developed in this study to investigate the characteristics of 2nd and 3rd grade slow learners in quantity. The concept of quantification involves understanding measurements, counts, magnitudes, units, indicators, relative size, and numerical trends and patterns. Fifty-five tasks of quantitative reasoning—such as number sense, mental calculation, estimation and assessment of reasonableness of results—are included as quantity problem solving. Thus, quantity is defined in this study as applying knowledge of number and number operations in a wide variety of authentic settings. Around 1000 students were tested and categorized into 4 different performance levels. Students’ quantity ability correlated higher with their school math grade than other subjects. Around 20% students are below basic level. The intervention design implications of the preliminary item map constructed are discussed.

Keywords: mathematics assessment, mathematical cognition, quantity, number sense, validity

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Authors: Ali Asgary, Haopeng Zhou, Ghassem Tofighi

Abstract:

Use of virtual (VR), augmented reality (AR), and extended reality technologies for training and education has increased in recent years as more hardware and software tools have become available and accessible to larger groups of users. Similarly, the applications of these technologies in earthquake related training and education are on the rise. Several studies have reported promising results for the use of VR and AR for evacuation behaviour and training under earthquake situations. They simulate the impacts that earthquake has on buildings, buildings’ contents, and how building occupants and users can find safe spots or open paths to outside. Considering that considerable number of earthquake injuries and fatalities are linked to the behaviour, our goal is to use these technologies to reduce the impacts of building contents on people. Building on our artificial intelligence (AI) based indoor earthquake risk assessment application that enables users to use their mobile device to assess the risks associated with building contents during earthquakes, we develop a virtual reality application to demonstrate the behavior of different building contents during earthquakes, their associate moving, spreading, falling, and collapsing risks, and their risk mitigation methods. We integrate realistic seismic models, building contents behavior with and without risk mitigation measures in virtual reality environment. The application can be used for training of architects, interior design experts, and building users to enhance indoor safety of the buildings that can sustain earthquakes. This paper describes and demonstrates the application development background, structure, components, and usage.

Keywords: virtual reality, earthquake damage, building content, indoor risks, earthquake risk mitigation, interior design, unity game engine, oculus

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

Abstract:

Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

Abstract:

The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Cihat Aşan

Abstract:

Istanbul Strait is a crucial and narrow waterway, not only having a role in linking two continents but also has a crossover mission for the petroleum, which is the biggest energy resource, between its supply and demand sources. Besides its substantial features, sensitivities like around 18 million populations in surroundings, military facilities, ports, oil lay down areas etc. also brings the high risk to use of Istanbul Strait. Based on the statistics of Turkish Ministry of Transportation, Maritime and Communication, although the number of vessel passage in Istanbul Strait is declining, tonnage of hazardous and flammable cargo like oil and chemical transportation is increasing and subsequently the risk of oil pollution, loss of life and property is also rising. Based on the mentioned above; it is crucial to be prepared for the initial and subsequent response to eventual ship sourced oil spill which may cause to block the Strait for an unbearable duration. In this study; preconditioned Istanbul Strait sensitive areas studies has been taken into account and possible oil spill scenario is loaded to PISCES 2 (Potential Incident Simulation Control and Evaluation System) decision support system for the determined specific sea area. Consequences of the simulation like oil expanding process, required number and types of assets to response, had in hand and evaluated.

Keywords: Istanbul strait, oil spill, PISCES simulator, initial response

Procedia PDF Downloads 343