Search results for: market trend detection

Authors: Rubab Ashiq, Bazaz Pinky

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Over the last decade, the emerging phenomenon of fashion blogging has altered the fashion landscape by providing new avenues of marketing to the fashion brands and designers. Given the growing popularity of this trend, there is a potential research scope within the developing fashion markets in South Asia as the majority of the previous studies have been centralized in the context of an established fashion industry. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to provide an insight on how these newly established marketplaces can benefit by incorporating fashion blogging as a marketing tool in a cross-cultural context. For this reason, the established fashion industry of UK and emerging fashion market of Pakistan was chosen to address the impact of cross-cultural differences on blogging based on the idea of individualism and collectivism. The study used a qualitative approach, using the semi-structured interviews with the fashion industry professionals including PR experts, fashion designers and fashion bloggers Additionally, a questionnaire was designed to gauge consumer’s perception of the blogging from the chosen fashion industries. It is established through the research findings that blogging has evolved from a trend to a strategic public relations and marketing tool in the established fashion industry, which is progressively growing its roots in the new emerging fashion markets. Furthermore, it is evaluated from the research that the cross-cultural differences have a positive impact on fashion blogging. Thus, this research paper serves as the guideline for the emerging fashion markets to incorporate fashion blogging as a marketing tool which can facilitate effective cross-cultural communication.

Keywords: blogging, digital marketing, cross-cultural, social media

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Authors: Mahmoud Salari

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Corruption and gender inequality are the main topics of interest for both economists and policymakers. This study develops various static and dynamic estimation models to examine the impact of gender inequality in politics and the labor market on corruption using data of 170 countries from 1998 to 2014. This study uses two most reliable corruption indexes, including Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Corruption Control (CC), to evaluate corruption levels across countries. The results indicate that gender inequality in politics has a strong impact on corruption level, and those countries that have larger/smaller gender inequality in their parliaments are faced with higher/lower corruption, respectively. Meanwhile, there is no enough evidence that supports the relationship between gender inequality in the labor market and corruption, and the results indicate that gender inequality in the labor market is not directly linked to the corruption level.

Keywords: corruption, female labor force participation, politics, gender inequality

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Authors: Urvashi Kaushal

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With the entry of multinationals in India, engineering students of Indian universities have opportunity to work with the best and the most innovative industries in the world, but in order to compete in the global job market, they require an added competence of communication skills in English. With work places turning global, competence in English can provide the Indian student the added advantage to begin his/her career in the international market. The present method of teaching English in any engineering college across Gujarat mostly concentrates on developing writing, and reading skills. Developing speech becomes a secondary topic owing to the old trend of lecturing in the class room and the huge strength of the class. This paper aims to highlight the importance of improving speaking skills of engineering students. It also insists that presentations can be used as a viable method to enhance the communication skills of these students. Presentations force students to plan, prepare, practice and perfect their communication skills which will enable them to get a foothold in the industry. The paper also discusses one such experiment carried out at the author’s institute and the response it received. Further, such experimental language learning approach is bound to have some limitations and obstacles. The paper suggests ways to overcome such limitations and strives to develop an interesting means of developing communication skills of the engineering students.

Keywords: engineering, English, presentation, communication skills

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Authors: Isao Tomita

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The detection of environmental gases, 12CO_2, 13CO_2, and CH_4, using near-infrared semiconductor lasers with a short laser path length is studied by means of wavelength-modulation spectroscopy. The developed system is compact and has high sensitivity enough to detect the absorption peaks of isotopic 13CO_2 of a 3-% CO_2 gas at 2 um with a path length of 2.4 m, where its peak size is two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the ordinary 12CO_2 peaks. In addition, the detection of 12CO_2 peaks of a 385-ppm (0.0385-%) CO_2 gas in the air is made at 2 um with a path length of 1.4 m. Furthermore, in pursuing the detection of an ancient environmental CH_4 gas confined to a bubble in ice at the polar regions, measurements of the absorption spectrum for a trace gas of CH_4 in a small area are attempted. For a 100-% CH_4 gas trapped in a 1 mm^3 glass container, the absorption peaks of CH_4 are obtained at 1.65 um with a path length of 3 mm, and also the gas pressure is extrapolated from the measured data.

Keywords: environmental gases, Near-Infrared Laser Detection, Wavelength-Modulation Spectroscopy, gas pressure

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Authors: Tim Farrelly

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In recent years, AI-powered object detection systems have opened the doors for innovative new applications and products, especially those operating in the real world or ‘on edge’ – namely, in sport. This paper investigates the viability of an ultra-low parameter convolutional neural network specially designed for the detection of footballs on ‘on the edge’ devices. The main contribution of this paper is the exploration of integrating new design features (depth-wise separable convolutional blocks and squeezed and excitation modules) into an ultra-low parameter network and demonstrating subsequent improvements in performance. The results show that tracking the ball from Full HD images with negligibly high accu-racy is possible in real-time.

Keywords: deep learning, object detection, machine vision applications, sport, network design

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Authors: Onder Yakut, Oguzhan Timus, Emine Dogru Bolat

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Health diseases have a vital significance affecting human being's life and life quality. Sudden death events can be prevented owing to early diagnosis and treatment methods. Electrical signals, taken from the human being's body using non-invasive methods and showing the heart activity is called Electrocardiogram (ECG). The ECG signal is used for following daily activity of the heart by clinicians. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) is a physiological parameter giving the variation between the heart beats. ECG data taken from MITBIH Arrhythmia Database is used in the model employed in this study. The detection of arrhythmic heart beats is aimed utilizing the features extracted from the HRV time domain parameters. The developed model provides a satisfactory performance with ~89% accuracy, 91.7 % sensitivity and 85% specificity rates for the detection of arrhythmic beats.

Keywords: arrhythmic beat detection, ECG, HRV, kNN classifier

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Hatane Semuel, Wilma Laura Sahetapy

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This study aims at examining the effect of market orientation on marketing performance through product adaptation strategy. The population of the research is domestic leather craft companies located in five regions, the center of the leather craft industry in Indonesia, i.e., Central Java, East Java, South Sulawesi, Bali, and West Kalimantan. The respondent consists of a manager level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result of the study shows that all hypotheses are supported. Market orientation affects marketing performance. Market orientation affects product adaptation strategy. Product adaptation strategy influences the marketing performance. The research also has revealed the main finding that product adaptation strategy contributes to a mediating role in the market orientation strategy and marketing performance relationship. The leather craft companies in Indonesia, therefore, may refer to this result in improving their marketing performance.

Keywords: leather craft industry, market orientation, marketing performance, product adaptation strategy

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Authors: Yulin Rao, Zhixuan Li, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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Intrusion detection refers to monitoring the actions of internal and external intruders on the system and detecting the behaviours that violate security policies in real-time. In intrusion detection, there has been much discussion about the application of neural network technology and artificial immune system (AIS). However, many solutions use static methods (signature-based and stateful protocol analysis) or centralized intrusion detection systems (CIDS), which are unsuitable for real-time intrusion detection systems that need to process large amounts of data and detect unknown intrusions. This article proposes a framework for a distributed intrusion detection system (DIDS) with multi-agents based on the concept of AIS and neural network technology to detect anomalies and intrusions. In this framework, multiple agents are assigned to each host and work together, improving the system's detection efficiency and robustness. The trainer agent in the central server of the framework uses the artificial neural network (ANN) rather than the negative selection algorithm of AIS to generate mature detectors. Mature detectors can distinguish between self-files and non-self-files after learning. Our analyzer agents use genetic algorithms to generate memory cell detectors. This kind of detector will effectively reduce false positive and false negative errors and act quickly on known intrusions.

Keywords: artificial immune system, distributed artificial intelligence, multi-agent, intrusion detection system, neural network

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Authors: Alireza Pour Ebrahimi, Vahid Abasi

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Recently by the extension of internet usage, Research on the intrusion detection system takes a significant importance. Many of improvement systems prevent internal and external network attacks by providing security through firewalls and antivirus. In recently years, intrusion detection systems gradually turn from host-based systems and depend on O.S to the distributed systems which are running on multiple O.S. In this work, by considering the diversity of computer networks whit respect to structure, architecture, resource, services, users and also security goals requirement a fully distributed collaborative intrusion detection system based on peer to peer architecture is suggested. in this platform each partner device (matched device) considered as a peer-to-peer network. All transmitted information to network are visible only for device that use security scanning of a source. Experimental results show that the distributed architecture is significantly upgradeable in respect to centralized approach.

Keywords: network, intrusion detection system, peer to peer, internal and external network

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Authors: V. Verma, Syed Riyaz-ul-Hassan

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Staphylococcus aureus is one of the most commonly found pathogenic bacteria and is hard to eliminate from the human environment. It is responsible for many nosocomial infections, besides being the main causative agent of food intoxication by virtue of its variety of enterotoxins. Routine detection of S. aureus in food is usually carried out by traditional methods based on morphological and biochemical characterization. These methods are time-consuming and tedious. In addition, misclassifications with automated susceptibility testing systems or commercially available latex agglutination kits have been reported by several workers. Consequently, there is a need for methods to specifically discriminate S. aureus from other staphylococci as quickly as possible. Data on protocols developed using molecular means like PCR technology will be presented for rapid and specific detection of this pathogen in food, clinical and environmental samples, especially milk.

Keywords: food Pathogens, PCR technology, rapid and specific detection, staphylococcus aureus

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Authors: Sikander Ali

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English is being used as linguafranca in most of the formal and informal situations of Pakistan. This extensive use has been rapidly replacing the identity of national language of Pakistani.e. Urdu. The nature of syntactic representation has always been the matter of confusion among linguists. Being unaware of the correct plural forms the non-natives commit mistakes while making plurals. But the situation is reverse when non-natives of English irrespective of knowing the right plurals make wrong plurals usually talking in their native language. The observation method was opted to check this hypothesis. Along with it, a checklist has been made in which these certain occurrences have been mentioned, where this flouting of the norms is a normal routine. The result confirms that Pakistani commit this mistake, i.e. ‘tablian’ the plural of tables, ‘filain’ the plural of files, though this is done by them on unconscious level. This emerging trend of unconscious mistake is leading Pakistani bilinguals towards a diglossic situation where they are coining portmanteau.

Keywords: bilinguals, emerging trend, portmanteau, trends

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Authors: Li Li, Li-Ru Xia, He-Ye Wang, Xiao-Dong Bi

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In this paper, we presented a highly sensitive immune-affinity monolithic array for detection of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Firstly, the epoxy functionalized monolith arrays were fabricated using UV initiated copolymerization method. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) image showed that the poly(BABEA-co-GMA) monolith exhibited a well-controlled skeletal and well-distributed porous structure. Then, AFP and CEA immune-affinity monolithic arrays were prepared by immobilization of AFP and CEA antibodies on epoxy functionalized monolith arrays. With a non-competitive immune response format, the presented AFP and CEA immune-affinity arrays were demonstrated as an inexpensive, flexible, homogeneous and stable array for detection of AFP and CEA.

Keywords: chemiluminescent detection, immune-affinity, monolithic copolymer array, UV-initiated copolymerization

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship

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Authors: Shraddha Jain Sharma, Ratnalata Gupta

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Predicting stock movements in the financial market is both difficult and rewarding. Analysts and academics are increasingly using advanced approaches such as machine learning techniques to anticipate stock price patterns, thanks to the expanding capacity of computing and the recent advent of graphics processing units and tensor processing units. Stock market prediction is a type of time series prediction that is incredibly difficult to do since stock prices are influenced by a variety of financial, socioeconomic, and political factors. Furthermore, even minor mistakes in stock market price forecasts can result in significant losses for companies that employ the findings of stock market price prediction for financial analysis and investment. Soft computing techniques are increasingly being employed for stock market prediction due to their better accuracy than traditional statistical methodologies. The proposed research looks at the need for soft computing techniques in stock market prediction, the numerous soft computing approaches that are important to the field, past work in the area with their prominent features, and the significant problems or issue domain that the area involves. For constructing a predictive model, the major focus is on neural networks and fuzzy logic. The stock market is extremely unpredictable, and it is unquestionably tough to correctly predict based on certain characteristics. This study provides a complete overview of the numerous strategies investigated for high accuracy prediction, with a focus on the most important characteristics.

Keywords: stock market prediction, artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, accuracy, deep learning, machine learning, stock price, trading volume

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Authors: Yin Zhang, Kai Qiao, Xiyang Zhi, Jinnan Gong, Jianming Hu

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In order to effectively detect aerial targets over long distances, an optimal matching design method of space-based optical payload is proposed. Firstly, main factors affecting optical detectability of small targets under complex environment are analyzed based on the full link of a detection system, including band center, band width and spatial resolution. Then a performance characterization model representing the relationship between image signal-to-noise ratio (SCR) and the above influencing factors is established to describe a detection system. Finally, an optimal matching design example is demonstrated for a typical aerial target by simulating and analyzing its SCR under different scene clutter coupling with multi-scale characteristics, and the optimized detection band and spatial resolution are presented. The method can provide theoretical basis and scientific guidance for space-based detection system design, payload specification demonstration and information processing algorithm optimization.

Keywords: space-based detection, aerial targets, optical system design, detectability characterization

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Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, S. Radhika

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In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self-scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self-scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: ancillary services, BPSO, power system economics, self-scheduling, sliding window technique

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Authors: Shyamli Singh, Ishupinder Kaur, Vinod K. Sharma

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Climate Change refers to the change in climate for extended period of time. Climate is changing from the past history of earth but anthropogenic activities accelerate this rate of change and which is now being a global issue. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions is causing global warming and climate change related issues at an alarming rate. Increasing temperature results in climate variability across the globe. Changes in rainfall patterns, intensity and extreme events are some of the impacts of climate change. Rainfall variability refers to the degree to which rainfall patterns varies over a region (spatial) or through time period (temporal). Temporal rainfall variability can be directly or indirectly linked to climate change. Such variability in rainfall increases the vulnerability of communities towards climate change. Increasing urbanization and unplanned developmental activities, the air quality is deteriorating. This paper mainly focuses on the rainfall variability due to increasing level of greenhouse gases. Rainfall data of 65 years (1951-2015) of Safdarjung station of Delhi was collected from Indian Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann-Kendall test for time-series data analysis. Mann-Kendall test is a statistical tool helps in analysis of trend in the given data sets. The slope of the trend can be measured through Sen’s slope estimator. Data was analyzed monthly, seasonally and yearly across the period of 65 years. The monthly rainfall data for the said period do not follow any increasing or decreasing trend. Monsoon season shows no increasing trend but here was an increasing trend in the pre-monsoon season. Hence, the actual rainfall differs from the normal trend of the rainfall. Through this analysis, it can be projected that there will be an increase in pre-monsoon rainfall than the actual monsoon season. Pre-monsoon rainfall causes cooling effect and results in drier monsoon season. This will increase the vulnerability of communities towards climate change and also effect related developmental activities.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall variability, Sen's slope

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Authors: N. N. Mosola, S. J. Molete, L. S. Masoebe, M. Letsae

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Hand gesture recognition is a technique used to locate, detect, and recognize a hand gesture. Detection and recognition are concepts of Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI concepts are applicable in Human Computer Interaction (HCI), Expert systems (ES), etc. Hand gesture recognition can be used in sign language interpretation. Sign language is a visual communication tool. This tool is used mostly by deaf societies and those with speech disorder. Communication barriers exist when societies with speech disorder interact with others. This research aims to build a hand recognition system for Lesotho’s Sesotho and English language interpretation. The system will help to bridge the communication problems encountered by the mentioned societies. The system has various processing modules. The modules consist of a hand detection engine, image processing engine, feature extraction, and sign recognition. Detection is a process of identifying an object. The proposed system uses Canny pruning Haar and Haarcascade detection algorithms. Canny pruning implements the Canny edge detection. This is an optimal image processing algorithm. It is used to detect edges of an object. The system employs a skin detection algorithm. The skin detection performs background subtraction, computes the convex hull, and the centroid to assist in the detection process. Recognition is a process of gesture classification. Template matching classifies each hand gesture in real-time. The system was tested using various experiments. The results obtained show that time, distance, and light are factors that affect the rate of detection and ultimately recognition. Detection rate is directly proportional to the distance of the hand from the camera. Different lighting conditions were considered. The more the light intensity, the faster the detection rate. Based on the results obtained from this research, the applied methodologies are efficient and provide a plausible solution towards a light-weight, inexpensive system which can be used for sign language interpretation.

Keywords: canny pruning, hand recognition, machine learning, skin tracking

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Authors: Weihao Wang, Zhulin Zong

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Two-dimensional ordered statistical constant false alarm detection is a widely used method for detecting weak target signals in radar signal processing applications. The method is based on analyzing the statistical characteristics of the noise and clutter present in the radar signal and then using this information to set an appropriate detection threshold. In this approach, the reference cell of the unit to be detected is divided into several reference subunits. These subunits are used to estimate the noise level and adjust the detection threshold, with the aim of minimizing the false alarm rate. By using an ordered statistical approach, the method is able to effectively suppress the influence of clutter and noise, resulting in a low false alarm rate. The detection process involves a number of steps, including filtering the input radar signal to remove any noise or clutter, estimating the noise level based on the statistical characteristics of the reference subunits, and finally, setting the detection threshold based on the estimated noise level. One of the main advantages of two-dimensional ordered statistical constant false alarm detection is its ability to detect weak target signals in the presence of strong clutter and noise. This is achieved by carefully analyzing the statistical properties of the signal and using an ordered statistical approach to estimate the noise level and adjust the detection threshold. In conclusion, two-dimensional ordered statistical constant false alarm detection is a powerful technique for detecting weak target signals in radar signal processing applications. By dividing the reference cell into several subunits and using an ordered statistical approach to estimate the noise level and adjust the detection threshold, this method is able to effectively suppress the influence of clutter and noise and maintain a low false alarm rate.

Keywords: two-dimensional, ordered statistical, constant false alarm, detection, weak target signals

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Authors: Tomáš Bublík, Miroslav Virius

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This paper presents general results on the Java source code snippet detection problem. We propose the tool which uses graph and sub graph isomorphism detection. A number of solutions for all of these tasks have been proposed in the literature. However, although that all these solutions are really fast, they compare just the constant static trees. Our solution offers to enter an input sample dynamically with the Scripthon language while preserving an acceptable speed. We used several optimizations to achieve very low number of comparisons during the matching algorithm.

Keywords: AST, Java, tree matching, scripthon source code recognition

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Authors: Marwa Sahnoun, Chokri Abdennadher

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This article comes, very timely, to look at the effectiveness of active labor market policies (ALMP) in improving labor market outcomes. Using panel data estimates for 19 European countries during the period 2000-2012, this article showed the role of institutional factors, especially the role of employment policies implementation based on three variables: the allocation of resources for the implementation of policies, continuity and timing in the implementation of policies to capture their effectiveness on the labor market. Empirical results shows favor effect of training, employment incentives, sheltered employment and rehabilitation and direct job creation on the entire population employment growth. Results shows also that start-up incentives seems to be more effective in increasing employment than other types of policies. Importantly, two aspects are important in terms of implementation: public expenditure on program administration, e.g. (PES) watches the most favorable aspect and the continuity of policies implemented.

Keywords: active labor market policies, implementation, public expenditure on program administration, start-up incentives, training

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Authors: Bilal Ahmad Malik

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With the fall of Soviet Union in 1991 the whole Central Asian region saw a dramatic rise in Muslim identity, a call back to Islamic legacy. Today, many Central Asian Muslims demand, what Islam has termed legal (Halal) and, avoid what Islam has termed illegal (Haram). The process of Islamic resurgence kicked off very quickly soon after the integration of Central Asian republics with other Muslim geographies through the membership of Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) and other similar organizations. This interaction proved to be a vital push factor to the already existing indigenous reviving trends and sentiments. As a result, along with many other requirements, Muslim customer demand emerged as navel trend in the market in general and in banking and financial sector in particular. To get this demand fulfilled, the governments of CIS states like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan introduced Halal banking and financial products in the market. Firstly, the present paper would briefly discuss the core composition of Halal banking and financial products. Then, coming to its major theme, it would try to identify and analyze the causes that lead to the emergence of Islamic banking and finance industry in the Muslim majority Post-Soviet CIS States.

Keywords: causes, Central Asia, interest-free banking, Islamic Revival

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Authors: Patricia Sumod

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There is a unique movement of fashion that features a trend around secondhand clothing. This is especially observed in the lifestyles of the millennials, where the concept of reusing apparel and accessories is noticeable and, therefore, slowly diminishing the high consumption of fast fashion and generating environmental awareness. This paper will focus on how this clothing trend influences and engages consumers in buying secondhand clothing and creating fashionable looks simultaneously. To further examine the millennials’ motivation towards consumption and using secondhand fashion, a concept as a trendsetter, this paper will take a closer look at their idea of concern for the environment. Considering second-hand clothing is a sustainable consumption practice, it will investigate the role of social influencers, trendsetters, and millennials in overall fashion consumption in this context. This study aims to understand how secondhand clothing and millennials differ from other consumers regarding the perception of fast-depleting natural resources, price sensitivity, vintage attachments, and psychographics. Secondly, the paper will also present the connection of emotion between millennials and secondhand clothing that may not be necessarily purchased but received. This study will reflect on the already identified influences in increased purchase behavior and an uncharted positive relationship between the consumer and the products. This behavior will further formulate into a habit by consumer segments, creating an expanded market for secondhand clothing. There is no definite indication that fast fashion will cease to exist, but slowing its rapid movement is an attempt to work toward a sustainable future. The conclusion will present possibilities for consumers to engage in C2C online interaction, thereby reinforcing a notable change in consumer behavior and attitude in contradiction to today’s extreme consumerism and willingness to be adaptable to a minimalist way of life. Fashion brands will then begin a new forecast to actively accommodate the new millennial concept of fashion that will advertise more concern than insatiability. The research will be with literature from various authors, insights provided by researchers on this new wave of consumers, and a qualitative approach with face-to-face interviews with a sample group who are in the practice of secondhand clothing consumption.

Keywords: second-hand clothing, millennials, sustainability, consumption practice, fashion environment.

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Authors: Linda Kauškale, Ineta Geipele

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Due to the rapidly changing external environment, portfolio management strategies became closely interconnected with real estate industry development and macroeconomic development tendencies. The aim of the research is to analyze sustainable real estate market development influencing factors, with particular focus on its economic and management aspects that influences real estate investment decisions as well. Scientific literature and article analysis, data analysis, expert evaluation, and other quantitative and qualitative research methods were used in the research. Developed real estate market sustainability model and index analysis approach can be applied by investors and real estate companies in real estate asset management and can help in risk minimization activities in international entrepreneurship. Future research directions have been identified in the research as well.

Keywords: indexes, investment decisions, real estate market, sustainability

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks

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Authors: M. Okeke, A. Blyth

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Industrial Control Systems (ICS) such as Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) can be seen in many different critical infrastructures, from nuclear management to utility, medical equipment, power, waste and engine management on ships and planes. The role SCADA plays in critical infrastructure has resulted in a call to secure them. Many lives depend on it for daily activities and the attack vectors are becoming more sophisticated. Hence, the security of ICS is vital as malfunction of it might result in huge risk. This paper describes how the application of Prey Predator (PP) approach in flocks of birds could enhance the detection of malicious activities on ICS. The PP approach explains how these animals in groups or flocks detect predators by following some simple rules. They are not necessarily very intelligent animals but their approach in solving complex issues such as detection through corporation, coordination and communication worth emulating. This paper will emulate flocking behavior seen in birds in detecting predators. The PP approach will adopt six nearest bird approach in detecting any predator. Their local and global bests are based on the individual detection as well as group detection. The PP algorithm was designed following MapReduce methodology that follows a Split Detection Convergence (SDC) approach.

Keywords: artificial life, industrial control system (ICS), IDS, prey predator (PP), SCADA, SDC

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Authors: Tariq Aziz, Suresh Kumar, Vikesh Kumar, Sheraz Mustafa, Jhanzeb Marwat

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The paper provides an updated version of volatility spillover among the equity markets of South Asian countries, including Pakistan, India, Srilanka, and Bangladesh. The analysis uses both symmetric and asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models to investigate volatility persistence and leverage effect. The bivariate EGARCH model is used to test for volatility transmission between two equity markets. Weekly data for the period February 2013 to August 2019 is used for empirical analysis. The findings indicate that the leverage effect exists in the equity markets of all the countries except Bangladesh. The volatility spillover from the equity market of Bangladesh to all other countries is negative and significant whereas the volatility of the equity market of Sri-Lanka does influence the volatility of any other country’s equity market. Indian equity market influence only the volatility of the Sri-Lankan equity market; and there is bidirectional volatility spillover between the equity markets of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The findings are important for policy-makers and international investors.

Keywords: volatility spillover, volatility persistence, garch, egarch

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

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Authors: Seyedeh Afsoon Mohseni

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The importance of the approach to the poverty definition is revealed regarding to it’s effect on the nature of planning poverty alleviation programs. This research employs the capability deprivation approach to alleviate rural poverty and seeks to develop herb’s market to alleviate capability poverty with an NGO’s intervene, Komak charity foundation. This research has employed qualitative approach; the data were collected through field observations, review of documents and interviews. Subsequently they were analyses by thematic analysis method. According to the findings, Komak charity can provide the least sustenance of the rural poor and alleviate capability poverty emergence through Herb’s market development of the village. Employing the themes, the market development is planned in two phases of empirical production and product development. Komak charity can intervene as a facilitator by providing micro credits, cooperative and supervising. Furthermore, planning on education and raising participation are prerequisites for the efficiency of the plan.

Keywords: capability poverty, Herb's market development, NGO, Komak charity foundation

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Authors: K. E. Ch. Vidyasagar, M. Moghavvemi, T. S. S. T. Prabhat

Abstract:

Epilepsy is a global problem, and with seizures eluding even the smartest of diagnoses a requirement for automatic detection of the same using electroencephalogram (EEG) would have a huge impact in diagnosis of the disorder. Among a multitude of methods for automatic epilepsy detection, one should find the best method out, based on accuracy, for classification. This paper reasons out, and rationalizes, the best methods for classification. Accuracy is based on the classifier, and thus this paper discusses classifiers like quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), classification and regression tree (CART), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes classifier (NBC), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and artificial neural networks (ANN). Results show that ANN is the most accurate of all the above stated classifiers with 97.7% accuracy, 97.25% specificity and 98.28% sensitivity in its merit. This is followed closely by SVM with 1% variation in result. These results would certainly help researchers choose the best classifier for detection of epilepsy.

Keywords: classification, seizure, KNN, SVM, LDA, ANN, epilepsy

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