Search results for: liquidity and event study

Authors: Saied Farham-Nia, Alireza Ghaffari-Hadigheh

Abstract:

Game theory is a mathematical tool to study the behaviors of a rational and strategic decision-makers, that analyze existing equilibrium in interest conflict situation and provides an appropriate mechanisms for cooperation between two or more player. Game theory is applicable for any strategic and interest conflict situation in politics, management and economics, sociology and etc. Real worlds’ decisions are usually made in the state of indeterminacy and the players often are lack of the information about the other players’ payoffs or even his own, which leads to the games in uncertain environments. When historical data for decision parameters distribution estimation is unavailable, we may have no choice but to use expertise belief degree, which represents the strength with that we believe the event will happen. To deal with belief degrees, we have use uncertainty theory which is introduced and developed by Liu based on normality, duality, subadditivity and product axioms to modeling personal belief degree. As we know, the personal belief degree heavily depends on the personal knowledge concerning the event and when personal knowledge changes, cause changes in the belief degree too. Uncertainty theory not only theoretically is self-consistent but also is the best among other theories for modeling belief degree on practical problem. In this attempt, we primarily reintroduced Expected Utility Function in uncertainty environment according to uncertainty theory axioms to extract payoffs. Then, we employed Nash Equilibrium to investigate the solutions. For more practical issues, Stackelberg leader-follower Game and Bertrand Game, as a benchmark models are discussed. Compared to existing articles in the similar topics, the game models and solution concepts introduced in this article can be a framework for problems in an uncertain competitive situation based on experienced expert’s belief degree.

Keywords: game theory, uncertainty theory, belief degree, uncertain expected value, Nash equilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 391

Authors: K. T. Sun, Y. H. Tai, H. W. Yang, H. T. Lin

Abstract:

This paper presented the technique of robot control by event-related potentials (ERPs) of brain waves. Based on the proposed technique, severe physical disabilities can free browse outside world. A specific component of ERPs, N2P3, was found and used to control the movement of robot and the view of camera on the designed brain-computer interface (BCI). Users only required watching the stimuli of attended button on the BCI, the evoked potentials of brain waves of the target button, N2P3, had the greatest amplitude among all control buttons. An experimental scene had been constructed that the robot required walking to a specific position and move the view of camera to see the instruction of the mission, and then completed the task. Twelve volunteers participated in this experiment, and experimental results showed that the correct rate of BCI control achieved 80% and the average of execution time was 353 seconds for completing the mission. Four main contributions included in this research: (1) find an efficient component of ERPs, N2P3, for BCI control, (2) embed robot's viewpoint image into user interface for robot control, (3) design an experimental scene and conduct the experiment, and (4) evaluate the performance of the proposed system for assessing the practicability.

Keywords: severe physical disabilities, robot control, event-related potentials (ERPs), brain-computer interface (BCI), brain waves

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

Abstract:

While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: balance, business survey, confidence indicators, industrial production, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Amir Lotfi, Seyed Hamid Hosseini

Abstract:

During the recent past, due to the increase of electrical energy demand and governmental resources constraints in creating additional capacity in the generation, transmission, and distribution, privatization, and restructuring in electrical industry have been considered. So, in most of the countries, different parts of electrical industry like generation, transmission, and distribution have been separated in order to create competition. Considering these changes, environmental issues, energy growth, investment of private equity in energy generation units and difficulties of transmission lines expansion, distributed generation (DG) units have been used in power systems. Moreover, reduction in the need for transmission and distribution, the increase of reliability, improvement of power quality, and reduction of power loss have caused DG to be placed in power systems. On the other hand, considering low liquidity need, private investors tend to spend their money for DGs. In this project, the main goal is to offer an algorithm for planning and placing DGs in order to reduce the need for transmission and distribution network.

Keywords: planning, transmission, distributed generation, power security, power systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: M. L. McLain, R. Sreelakshmi, Abhishek, Rajeshwaran, Bhavani Rao, Kamal Bijlani, R. Jayakrishnan

Abstract:

Technology enhanced learning has brought drastic changes in the field of education in the modern world. In this study we explore a novel way to improve how high school students learn by building a serious game that uses a pedagogical model developed by Robert Gagne. By integrating serious game with principles of Gagne’s learning model can provide engaging and meaningful instructions to students. The game developed in this study is a waste sorting game that can easily and succinctly demonstrate the principles of this learning model. All the tasks in the game that the player has to accomplish correspond to Gagne’s “Nine Events of Learning”. A quiz is incorporated in order to get data on the progress made by the player in understanding the concept and as well as to assess them. Additionally, an experimental study was conducted which demonstrates that game based learning using Gagne’s event is more effective than a traditional classroom setup.

Keywords: game based learning, sorting and recycling of waste, Gagne’s learning model, e-Learning, technology enhanced learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 605

Authors: Reza Safari, Ali Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Raheleh Hossseinzadeh Mahabadi

Abstract:

In the present world, there are different pressures on firms such as competition, legislations, social etc. these pressures force the firms to follow “survival” as their primary goal and then growth. One of the main factors that helps firms to reach their goals is proper financial performance. To find out about the financial performance, a firm should monitors its financial performance. Financial performance affected by many factors. This research seeks to clear which financial performance indicators are most important according to Environmental situation of a firm and what are their priorities. To do so, environmental indicators specified as presented on OECD Key Environmental Indicators 2008 and so the financial performance indicators such as Profitability, Liquidity, Gearing, Investor ratios, and etc. At this stage, the affections questioned through questionnaires. After gaining the results, data analyzed using Promethee technique. By using decision matrixes extracted from those techniques an expert system designed. This expert system suggests the suitable financial performance indicators and their ranking by receiving the environment situation given environment indicators weight.

Keywords: environment indicators, financial performance indicators, promethee, expert system

Procedia PDF Downloads 412

Authors: Ossai Paulinus Edwin

Abstract:

Cash Management is a broad area having to do with the collection, concentration, and disbursement of cash including measuring the level of liquidity and managing the cash balance and short-Term Investments. Cash Management involves the efficient collection and disbursement of cash and cash equivalents. It also includes management of marketable securities because, in modern Terminology, money comprises marketable securities and actual cash in hand or in a bank. This cash management is concerned with management of cash inflow and cash outflow of a business especially as it concerns a developing nation like Nigeria. The paper throws light on the impact of cashless policy in Nigeria as it was introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December 2011 and was kick-started in Lagos in January 2012. Survey research was adopted with the questionnaires as data collection instrument. Responses show that cashless policy if adopted generally shall increase employment opportunities, reduce cash related robbery thereby reducing risk of carrying cash; it shall also reduce cash related corruption and attract more foreign investors to the country. It is expected that the introduction of cashless policy in Nigeria is a step in the right direction as it shall bring about modernization of Nigeria payment system, reduction in the cost of banking services, reduction in high security and safety risk and also curb banking related corruptions.

Keywords: cashless economy, cash management, cashless policy, e-banking, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 517

Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

Abstract:

Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Proud Arunrangsiwed

Abstract:

This study analyzes the crisis management and image repair strategies during the crisis of Mahidol Wittayanusorn School (MWIT) library burning. The library of this school was burned by a 16-year-old-male student on June 6th, 2010. This student blamed the school that the lesson was difficult, and other students were selfish. Although no one was in the building during the fire, it had caused damage to the building, books and electronic supplies around 130 million bahts (4.4 million USD). This event aroused many discourses arguing about the education system and morality. The strategies which were used during crisis were denial, shift the blame, bolstering, minimization, and uncertainty reduction. The results of using these strategies appeared after the crisis. That was the numbers of new students, who registered for the examination to get into this school in the later years, have remained the same.

Keywords: school, crisis management, violence, image repair strategies, uncertainty, burn

Procedia PDF Downloads 454

Authors: Richard Lewis

Abstract:

The following assumptions of the Big Bang theory are challenged and found to be false: the cosmological principle, the assumption that all matter formed at the same time and the assumption regarding the cause of the cosmic microwave background radiation. The evolution of the universe is described based on the conclusion that the universe is finite with a space boundary. This conclusion is reached by ruling out the possibility of an infinite universe or a universe which is finite with no boundary. In a finite universe, the centre of the universe can be located with reference to our home galaxy (The Milky Way) using the speed relative to the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) rest frame and Hubble's law. This places our home galaxy at a distance of approximately 26 million light years from the centre of the universe. Because we are making observations from a point relatively close to the centre of the universe, the universe appears to be isotropic and homogeneous but this is not the case. The CMB is coming from a source located within the event horizon of the universe. There is sufficient mass in the universe to create an event horizon at the Schwarzschild radius. Galaxies form over time due to the energy released by the expansion of space. Conservation of energy must consider total energy which is mass (+ve) plus energy (+ve) plus spacetime curvature (-ve) so that the total energy of the universe is always zero. The predominant position of galaxy formation moves over time from the centre of the universe towards the boundary so that today the majority of new galaxy formation is taking place beyond our horizon of observation at 14 billion light years.

Keywords: cosmology, dark energy, dark matter, evolution of the universe

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Moses Ikechukwu Benjamin

Abstract:

The continued increase in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcuspseudintermedius (MRSP) among dogs and the zoonotic transmission event of MRSP from dogs to humans threaten veterinary medicine and public health. The cardinal objective of this study was to determine the antibiogram and frequency of toxingenes in MRSP obtained from shelter dogs with skin infections and dog owners in Abakaliki, Eastern Nigeria. Skinswabs from 61 shelter dogs with skin infections and 33 nasal swabs from dog owners were processed and analyzed using standard microbiological techniques. Susceptibility to antibiotics was determined by Kirby Bauer disc diffusion technique. The screening for Seccanine, lukD, siet, and exitoxin genes was carried out by PCR. A total of 23 (37.7 %) and 1 (3 %) MRSP strains were obtained from shelter dogs and dog owners, respectively. Generally, isolates exhibited high resistance to amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, ceftazidime, and cefepime (100 % - 66.7 %) but were very susceptible (100 % - 70.7 %) to chloramphenicol and doripenem. The only isolate from dog owners harbouredseccanine, lukD, and siet toxin genes while solatesfrom shelter dogs harbouredseccanine16 (69.6 %), lukD 17 (73.9 %), siet 20 (87 %), and exi1 (4.4 %) toxin genes. Isolates were generally observed to be more resistant than other reports from the literature. Interesting, there was a similarity in the resistance antibiotypes and frequency of toxin genes harboured by MRSP isolates between shelter dogs with skin infections and their owner in a sampled household, thus suggesting a likely zoonotic transmission event. This report of the occurrence of MRSP and high frequency of toxin genes (Seccanine,lukD, and siet) in shelter dogs and dog owners represent a major challenge, especially in terms of antibiotic therapy, and is a serious concern for both animal and public health.

Keywords: methicillin-resistant S. pseudintermedius, zoonotic transmission, antibiotic resistance, companion dogs, toxin genes

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Kang-Hsien Li

Abstract:

Along with global industries in using technology to enhance the application, make the study drawn more close to the people’s behavior and produce data analysis, extended out from the mental accounting of prospect theory, this paper provides the marketing and financial applications in the field of exploration and discussions with the future. For the foreseeable future, the payment behavior depends on the form of currency, which affects a variety of product types on the marketing of marketing strategy to provide diverse payment methods to enhance the overall sales performance. This not only affects people's consumption also affects people's investments. Credit card, PayPal, Apple pay, Bitcoin and any other with advances in technology and other emerging payment instruments, began to affect people for the value and the concept of money. Such as the planning of national social welfare policies, monetary and financial regulators and regulators. The expansion can be expected to discuss marketing and finance-related mental problems at the same time, recent studies reflect two different ideas, the first idea is that individuals affected by situational frames, not broad impact at the event level, affected by the people basically mental, second idea is that when an individual event affects a broader range, and majority of people will choose the same at the time that the rational choice. That are applied to practical application of marketing, at the same time provide an explanation in the financial market under the anomalies, due to the financial markets has varied investment products and different market participants, that also highlights these two points. It would provide in-depth description of humanity's mental. Certainly, about discuss mental accounting aspects, while artificial intelligence application development, although people would be able to reduce prejudice decisions, that will also lead to more discussion on the economic and marketing strategy.

Keywords: mental accounting, behavior economics, consumer behaviors, decision-making

Procedia PDF Downloads 431

Authors: Bar Shapira-Youngster, Sima Amram-Vaknin, Yuliya Lipshits-Braziler

Abstract:

The study examined how 811 Israelis experienced and coped with the COVID-19 lockdown. Stress, uncertainty, and loss of control were reported as common emotional experiences. Two main difficulties were reported: Loneliness and health and emotional concerns. Frequent explanations for the virus's emergence were: scientific or faith reasoning. The most prevalent coping strategies were distraction activities and acceptance. Reducing the use of maladaptive coping strategies has important implications for mental health outcomes. Objectives: COVID-19 has been recognized as a collective, continuous traumatic stressor. The present study examined how individuals experienced, perceived, and coped with this traumatic event during the lockdown in Israel in April 2020. Method: 811 Israelis (71.3% were women; mean age 43.7, SD=13.3)completed an online semi-structured questionnaire consisting two sections: In the first section, participants were asked to report background information. In the second section, they were asked to answer 8 open-ended questions about their experience, perception, and coping with the covid-19 lockdown. Participation was voluntary, and anonymity was assured, they were not offered compensation of any kind. The data were subjected to qualitative content analysis that seeks to classify the participants` answers into an effective number of categories that represent similar meanings. Our content analysis of participants’ answers extended far beyond simple word counts; our objective was to try to identify recurrent categories that characterized participants’ responses to each question. We sought to ensure that the categories regarding the different questions are as mutually exclusive and exhaustive as possible. To ensure robust analysis, the data were initially analyzed by the first author, and a second opinion was then sought from research colleagues. Contribution: The present research expands our knowledge of individuals' experiences, perceptions, and coping mechanisms with continuous traumatic events. Reducing the use of maladaptive coping strategies has important implications for mental health outcomes.

Keywords: Covid-19, emotional distress, coping, continuous traumatic event

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Ossai Paulinus Edwin

Abstract:

Cash Management is a broad area having to do with the collection, concentration and disbursement of cash including measuring the level of liquidity and managing the cash balance and Short-Term Investments. Cash Management involves the efficient collection and disbursement of cash and cash equivalents. It also includes management of marketable securities because, in modern Terminology, money comprises marketable securities and actual cash in hand or in a bank. This cash management is concerned with management of cash inflow and cash outflow of a business especially as it concerns a developing nation like Nigeria. The paper throws light on the impact of cashless policy in Nigeria as it was introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December 2011 and was kick started in Lagos in January 2012. Survey research was adopted with the questionnaires as data collection instrument. Responses show that cashless policy if adopted generally shall increase employment opportunities, reduce cash related robbery thereby reducing risk of carrying cash; it shall also reduce cash related corruption and attract more foreign investors to the country. It is expected that the introduction of cashless policy in Nigeria is a step in the right direction as it shall bring about modernization of Nigeria payment system, reduction in the cost of banking services, reduction in high security and safety risk and also curb banking related corruptions.

Keywords: cashless economy, cash management, cashless policy, e-banking, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: T. Hansen

Abstract:

Many consumers are uncertain of what financial borrowing behavior may serve their interests in the best way. This is important since consumers’ risky financial decisions may not only negatively affect their short-term liquidity but may haunt them for years after they are made. Obviously, this is especially critical for young adults who often carry large amounts of student loans or credit card debt, which in turn may hinder their future ability to obtain financial healthiness. Even though factors such as financial knowledge, attitudes towards risk, gender, and motivations of borrowing, among others, are known to influence consumer borrowing behavior, no existing model comprehensibly describes the mechanisms behind young adults’ risky borrowing behavior. This is unfortunate since a better understanding of the relationships between such factors and young adults’ risky borrowing behavior may be of value to financial service providers and financial authorities aiming to improve young adults’ borrowing behavior. This research extends prior research by developing a conceptual framework for the purpose of understanding young adults’ risky borrowing behavior. The study is based on two survey samples comprising 488 young adults aged 18-25 who have not obtained a risky loan (sample 1) and 214 young adults aged 18-25 who already have obtained a risky loan (sample 2), respectively. The results suggest several psychological, sociological, and behavioral factors that may influence young adults’ intentional risky borrowing behavior, which in turn is shown to affect actualized risky borrowing behavior. We also found that the relationship between intentional risky borrowing behavior and actualized risky borrowing behavior is negatively moderated by perceived risk – but not by perceived complexity. In particular, the results of this study indicate that public policy makers, banks and financial educators should seek to eliminate less desirable social norms on how to behave financially. In addition, they should seek to enhance young adults’ risky borrowing perceived risk, thereby preventing that intentional risky borrowing behavior translates into actualized risky behavior.

Keywords: financial services, risky borrowing behavior, young adults, financial knowledge, social norms, perceived risk, financial trust, public financial policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Liang-Chien Lee, Chih-Hsiang Chang, Ying-Shu Tseng

Abstract:

Comparing with prior studies mainly focused on the effect of a certain event (it may be the initial announcement of bad news or the repeated announcements of identical bad news) on stock price, the aim of this study is to explore how investors react to subsequent bad news with identical content. Empirical results show that as a result of behavioral pitfalls, investors underreact to the initial announcement of the bad news (i.e., unknown bad news) and overreact to the repeated announcements of the identical bad news (i.e., known bad news).

Keywords: subsequent bad news, behavioral finance, Investors’ misreaction, behavioral pitfalls

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Zahra Fotovatnia, Jeffery A. Jones, Alexandra Gottardo

Abstract:

Speech communication often occurs in environments where noise conceals part of a message. Listeners should compensate for the lack of auditory information by picking up distinct acoustic cues and using semantic and sentential context to recreate the speaker’s intended message. This situation seems to be more challenging in a nonnative than native language. On the other hand, early bilinguals are expected to show an advantage over the late bilingual and monolingual speakers of a language due to their better executive functioning components. In this study, English monolingual speakers were compared with early and late nonnative speakers of English to understand speech in noise processing (SIN) and the underlying neurobiological features of this phenomenon. Auditory mismatch negativities (MMNs) were recorded using a double-oddball paradigm in response to a minimal pair that differed in their middle vowel (beat/bit) at Wilfrid Laurier University in Ontario, Canada. The results did not show any significant structural and electroneural differences across groups. However, vocabulary knowledge correlated positively with performance on tests that measured SIN processing in participants who learned English after age 6. Moreover, their performance on the test negatively correlated with the integral area amplitudes in the left superior temporal gyrus (STG). In addition, the STG was engaged before the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) in noise-free and low-noise test conditions in all groups. We infer that the pre-attentive processing of words engages temporal lobes earlier than the fronto-central areas and that vocabulary knowledge helps the nonnative perception of degraded speech.

Keywords: degraded speech perception, event-related brain potentials, mismatch negativities, brain regions

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Jay Mar D. Quevedo, Fernando P. Siringan, Cesar L. Villanoy

Abstract:

The influence of the Younger Dryas (YD) event on primary production off the northeast shelf of Luzon, Philippines is examined using sediment cores from two deep sea sites north of the Bicol shelf and with varying relative influence from terrestrial sediment input and the Kuroshio Current. Core A is immediately west of the Kuroshio feeder current and is off the slope while Core B is from a bathymetric high located almost west of Core A. XRF-, CHN- and LOI- derived geochemical proxies are utilized for reconstruction. A decrease in sediment input from ~12.9 to ~11.6 kyr BP corresponding to the YD event is indicated by the proxies, Ti, Al, and Al/Ti, in both cores. This is consistent with the drier climate during this period. Primary productivity indicators in the cores show opposing trends during the YD; Core A shows an increasing trend while Core B shows a decreasing trend. The decreasing trend in Core B can be due to a decrease in terrestrial nutrient input due to a decrease in precipitation. On the other hand, the increasing trend in Core A can be due to a swifter Kuroshio Current caused by a swifter and more southerly NEC bifurcation which in turn is due to a southerly shift of the ITCZ during YD. A stronger Kuroshio feeder would have enhanced upwelling induced by steeper sea surface across the current and by more intense cyclonic gyres due to flow separation where the shelf width suddenly decreases north of the Bicol Shelf.

Keywords: paleoproductivity, younger dryas, Philippines, northeastern Luzon

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Jannes Quer, Amir Niknejad, Marcus Weber

Abstract:

Computational Drug Design is often based on Molecular Dynamics simulations of molecular systems. Molecular Dynamics can be used to simulate, e.g., the binding and unbinding event of a small drug-like molecule with regard to the active site of an enzyme or a receptor. However, the time-scale of the overall binding event is many orders of magnitude longer than the time-scale of simulation. Thus, there is a need to speed-up molecular simulations. In order to speed up simulations, the molecular dynamics trajectories have to be ”steared” out of local minimizers of the potential energy surface – the so-called metastabilities – of the molecular system. Increasing the kinetic energy (temperature) is one possibility to accelerate simulated processes. However, with temperature the entropy of the molecular system increases, too. But this kind ”stearing” is not directed enough to stear the molecule out of the minimum toward the saddle point. In this article, we give a new mathematical idea, how a potential energy surface can be changed in such a way, that entropy is kept under control while the trajectories are still steared out of the metastabilities. In order to compute the unsteared transition behaviour based on a steared simulation, we propose to use extrapolation methods. In the end we mathematically show, that our method accelerates the simulations along the direction, in which the curvature of the potential energy surface changes the most, i.e., from local minimizers towards saddle points.

Keywords: extrapolation, Eyring-Kramers, metastability, multilevel sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

Abstract:

This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Seba Mohanty, Jitendra Mahakud

Abstract:

Capital ratio is one of the major indicators of the stability of the commercial banks. Pertinent to its pervasive importance, over the years the regulators, policy makers focus on the maintenance of the particular level of capital ratio to minimize the solvency and liquidation risk. In this context, it is very much important to identify the relationship between capital and risk and find out the factors which determine the capital ratios of commercial banks. The study examines the relationship between capital and risk of the commercial banks operating in India. Other bank specific variables like bank size, deposit, profitability, non-performing assets, bank liquidity, net interest margin, loan loss reserves, deposits variability and regulatory pressure are also considered for the analysis. The period of study is 1997-2015 i.e. the period of post liberalization. To identify the impact of financial crisis and implementation of Basel II on capital ratio, we have divided the whole period into two sub-periods i.e. 1997-2008 and 2008-2015. This study considers all the three types of commercial banks, i.e. public sector, the private sector and foreign banks, which have continuous data for the whole period. The main sources of data are Prowess data base maintained by centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE) and Reserve Bank of India publications. We use simultaneous equation model and more specifically Two Stage Least Square method to find out the relationship between capital and risk. From the econometric analysis, we find that capital and risk affect each other simultaneously, and this is consistent across the time period and across the type of banks. Moreover, regulation has a positive significant impact on the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets, but no significant impact on the banks risk taking behaviour. Our empirical findings also suggest that size has a negative impact on capital and risk, indicating that larger banks increase their capital less than the other banks supported by the too-big-to-fail hypothesis. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by predicting a strong relationship between capital and risk in an emerging economy, where banking sector plays a majority role for financial development. Further this study may be considered as a primary study to find out the macro economic factors which affecting risk and capital in India.

Keywords: capital, commercial bank, risk, simultaneous equation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Derya Gül Ünlü, Oguz Kuş

Abstract:

The branding of a country means that the country has its own position different from other countries in its region and thus it is perceived more specifically. It is made possible by the branding efforts of a country and the uniqueness of all the national structures, by presenting it in a specific way, by creating the desired image and attracting tourists and foreign investors. Establishing a national brand involves, in a sense, the process of managing the perceptions of the citizens of the other country about the target country, by structuring the image of the country permanently and holistically. By this means, countries are not easily affected by their crisis of international relations. Therefore, within the scope of the research that will be carried out from this point, it is aimed to show how the warplane downing crisis between Turkey and Russia is perceived on social media. The Russian warplane was downed by Turkey on November 24, 2015, on the grounds that Turkey violated the airspace on the Syrian border. Whereupon the relations between the two countries have been tensed, and Russia has called on its citizens not to go to Turkey and citizens in Turkey to return to their countries. Moreover, relations between two countries have been weakened, for example, tourism tours organized in Russia to Turkey and visa-free travel were canceled and all military dialogue was cut off. After the event, various news sites on social media published plenty of news related to topic and the readers made various comments about the event and Turkey. In this context, an investigation into the perception of Turkey's national brand before and after the warplane downing crisis has been conducted. through comments fetched from the reports on the BBC World, and from Al Jazeera English news sites on Facebook accounts, which takes place widely in the social media. In order to realize study, user comments were fetched from jet downing-related news which are published on Facebook fan-page of BBC World Service, and Al Jazeera English. Regarding this, all the news published between 24.10.2015-24.12.2015 and containing Turk and Turkey keyword in its title composed data set of our study. Afterwards, comments written to these news were analyzed via text mining technique. Furthermore, by sentiment analysis, it was intended to reveal reader’s emotions before and after the crisis.

Keywords: Al Jazeera English, BBC World, country branding, social media, text mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Ji-Yuan Lin, Yu-Ming Liou, Yi-Ting Chen, Chen-Syuan Lin

Abstract:

Soil water index obtained by tank model is now commonly used in soil and sand disaster alarm system in Japan. Comparing with the rainfall trigging index in Taiwan, the tank model is easy to predict the slope water content on large-scale landslide. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the threshold value of large-scale landslide using the soil water index Sixteen typhoons and heavy rainfall events, were selected to establish the, to relationship between landslide event and soil water index. Finally, the proposed threshold values for landslides on country road No.89 are suggested in this study. The study results show that 95% landslide cases occurred in soil water index more than 125mm, and 30% of the more serious slope failure occurred in the soil water index is greater than 250mm. Beside, this study speculates when soil water index more than 250mm and the difference value between second tank and third tank less than -25mm, it leads to large-scale landslide more probably.

Keywords: soil water index, tank model, landslide, threshold values

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

Abstract:

Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: decision support system, event-sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Noury Bakrim

Abstract:

From the point of view of language morphodynamics, interpretative Readability of the text-result (the stasis) is not the external hermeneutics of its various potential reading events but the paradigmatic, semantic immanence of its dynamics. In other words, interpretative Readability articulates the potential tension between projection (intentionality of the discursive event) and the result (Readability within the syntagmatic stasis). We then consider that translation represents much more a metalinguistic conversion of neurocognitive bilingual sub-routines and modular relations than a semantic equivalence. Furthermore, the actualizing Readability (the process of rewriting a target text within a target language/genre) builds upon the descriptive level between the generative syntax/semantic from and its paradigmatic potential translatability. Translation corpora reveal the evidence of a certain focusing on the positivist stasis of the source text at the expense of its interpretative Readability. For instance, Fluchere's brilliant translation of Miller's Tropic of cancer into French realizes unconsciously an inversion of the hierarchical relations between Life Thought and Fable: From Life Thought (fable) into Fable (Life Thought). We could regard the translation of Bernard Kreiss basing on Canetti's work die englischen Jahre (les annees anglaises) as another inversion of the historical scale from individual history into Hegelian history. In order to describe and test both translation process and result, we focus on the pedagogical practice which enables various principles grounding in interpretative/actualizing Readability. Henceforth, establishing the analytical uttering dynamics of the source text could be widened by other practices. The reversibility test (target - source text) or the comparison with a second translation in a third language (tertium comparationis A/B and A/C) point out the evidence of an impossible event. Therefore, it doesn't imply an uttering idealistic/absolute source but the irreducible/non-reproducible intentionality of its production event within the experience of world/discourse. The aim of this paper is to conceptualize translation as the tension between interpretative and actualizing Readability in a new approach grounding in morphodynamics of language and Translatability (mainly into French) within literary and non-literary texts articulating theoretical and described pedagogical corpora.

Keywords: readability, translation as deverbalization, translation as conversion, Tertium Comparationis, uttering actualization, translation pedagogy

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Amita Singha

Abstract:

The project describes the scope of magnetic braking. The potential applications of the braking system can be a de-accelerating system to increase the safety of an elevator or any guided rail transportation system.

Keywords: boost and buck converter, electromagnet, elevator, ferromagnetic material, sensor, solenoid, timer

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Moein Izadi, Ali Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Detection of damaged parts of roads after earthquake is essential for coordinating rescuers. In this study, an approach is presented for the semi-automatic detection of damaged roads in a city using pre-event vector maps and both pre- and post-earthquake QuickBird satellite images. Damage is defined in this study as the debris of damaged buildings adjacent to the roads. Some spectral and texture features are considered for SVM classification step to detect damages. Finally, the proposed method is tested on QuickBird pan-sharpened images from the Bam City earthquake and the results show that an overall accuracy of 81% and a kappa coefficient of 0.71 are achieved for the damage detection. The obtained results indicate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach.

Keywords: SVM classifier, disaster management, road damage detection, quickBird images

Procedia PDF Downloads 600

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

Abstract:

According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Juliana Bom-Tempo

Abstract:

The proposed composition occurs between images, performances, clinics and philosophies. For this enterprise we depart for what is not known beforehand, so with a question as a compass: "would it be in the creation, production and implementation of images in a performance a 'when' for the event of a poetic clinic?” In light of this, there are, in order to think a 'when' of the event of a poetic clinic, images in performances created, produced and executed in partnerships with the author of this text. Faced with this composition, we built four indicators to find spatiotemporal coordinates that would spot that "when", namely: risk zones; the mobilizations of the signs; the figuring of the flesh and an education of the affections. We dealt with the images in performances; Crútero; Flesh; Karyogamy and the risk of abortion; Egg white; Egg-mouth; Islands, threads, words ... germs; Egg-Mouth-Debris, taken as case studies, by engendering risks areas to promote individuations, which never actualize thoroughly, thus always something of pre-individual and also individuating a environment; by mobilizing the signs territorialized by the ordinary, causing them to vary the language and the words of order dictated by the everyday in other compositions of sense, other machinations; by generating a figure of flesh, disarranging the bodies, isolating them in the production of a ground force that causes the body to leak out and undo the functionalities of the organs; and, finally, by producing an education of affections, by placing the perceptions in becoming and disconnecting the visible in the production of small deserts that call for the creation of a people yet to come. The performance is processed as a problematizing of the images fixed by the ordinary, producing gestures that precipitate the individuation of images in performance, strange to the configurations that gather bodies and spaces in what we call common. Lawrence proposes to think of "people" who continually use umbrellas to protect themselves from chaos. These have the function of wrapping up the chaos in visions that create houses, forms and stabilities; they paint a sky at the bottom of the umbrella, where people march and die. A chaos, where people live and wither. Pierce the umbrella for a desire of chaos; a poet puts himself as an enemy of the convention, to be able to have an image of chaos and a little sun that burns his skin. The images in performances presented, thereby, were moving in search for the power of producing a spatio-temporal "when" putting the territories in risk areas, mobilizing the signs that format the day-to-day, opening the bodies to a disorganization and the production of an education of affections for the event of a poetic clinic.

Keywords: Experimentations , Images in Performances, Poetic Clinic, Risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Yu-Da Chen, Chia-Chun Wu

Abstract:

The relationship between antecedent soil moisture content and soil erosion is a complicated phenomenon. Some studies confirm the effect of antecedent soil moisture content on soil erosion, but some deny it. Therefore, the objective of this study is to clarify such contradictions through field experiments. This study conducted two-year field observations of soil losses from natural rainfall events on runoff plots with a length of 10 meters, width of 3 meters, and uniform slope of 9%. Volumetric soil moisture sensors were used to log the soil moisture changes for each rainfall event. A total of 49 effective events were monitored. Results of this study show that antecedent soil moisture content promotes the generation of surface runoff, especially for rainfall events with short duration or lower magnitudes. A positive correlation was found between antecedent soil moisture content and soil loss per unit Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Index, which indicated that soil with high moisture content is more susceptible to detachment. Once the rainfall duration exceeds 10 hours, the impact from the rainfall duration to soil erosion overwrites, and the effect of antecedent soil moisture is almost negligible.

Keywords: antecedent soil moisture content, soil loss, runoff coefficient, rainfall-runoff erosivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 41