Search results for: Egyptian series

Authors: Wieslaw Marszalek, Zdzislaw Trzaska

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Interesting properties of various one-period loops of singularly perturbed memristive circuits with mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs) are analyzed in this paper. The analysis is mixed, both analytical and numerical and focused on the properties of pinched hysteresis of the memristive element and other one-period loops formed by pairs of time-series solutions for various circuits' variables. The memristive element is the only nonlinear element in the two circuits. A theorem on periods of mixed-mode oscillations of the circuits is formulated and proved. Replacements of memristors by parallel G-C or series R-L circuits for a MMO response with equivalent RMS values is also discussed.

Keywords: mixed-mode oscillations, memristive circuits, pinched hysteresis, one-period loops, singularly perturbed circuits

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Authors: Smita Pareek, Ratna Dahiya

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The power generated by solar photovoltaic (PV) module depends on surrounding irradiance, temperature, shading conditions, and shading pattern. This paper presents a simulation of photovoltaic module using Matlab/Simulink. PV Array is also simulated by series and parallel connections of modules and their characteristics curves are given. Further PV module topology/configuration are proposed for 5.5kW inverter available in the literature. Shading of a PV array either complete or partial can have a significant impact on its power output and energy yield; therefore, the simulated model characteristics curves (I-V and P-V) are drawn for uniform shading conditions (USC) and then output power, voltage and current are calculated for variation in insolation for shading conditions. Additionally the characteristics curves are also given for a predetermined shadowing condition.

Keywords: array, series, parallel, photovoltaic, partial shading

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Authors: Daumantas Zidanavicius

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In order to investigate the bond between concrete and steel in the circular steel tube column filled with concrete, the 7 series of specimens were tested with the same geometrical parameters but different concrete properties. Two types of specimens were chosen. For the first type, the expansive additives to the concrete mixture were taken to increase internal forces. And for the second type, mechanical components were used. All 7 series of the short columns were modeled by FEM and tested experimentally. In the work, big attention was taken to the bond-slip models between steel and concrete. Results show that additives to concrete let increase the bond strength up to two times and the mechanical anchorage –up to 6 times compared to control specimens without additives and anchorage.

Keywords: concrete filled steel tube, push-out test, bond slip relationship, bond stress distribution

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Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami

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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.

Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition

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Authors: Harold Vásquez, Cesar Hernández, Ingrid Páez

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This paper approach cognitive radio technic and applied pure proactive handoff Model to decrease interference between PU and SU and comparing it with reactive handoff model. Through the study and analysis of multivariate models SAW and TOPSIS join to 3 dynamic prediction techniques AR, MA ,and ARMA. To evaluate the best model is taken four metrics: number failed handoff, number handoff, number predictions, and number interference. The result presented the advantages using this type of pure proactive models to predict changes in the PU according to the selected channel and reduce interference. The model showed better performance was TOPSIS-MA, although TOPSIS-AR had a higher predictive ability this was not reflected in the interference reduction.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum handoff, decision making, time series, wireless networks

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Authors: Harish Rajak, Preeti Patel

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HDAC inhibitors can reactivate gene expression and inhibit the growth and survival of cancer cells. The 3D-QSAR and Pharmacophore modeling studies were performed to identify important pharmacophoric features and correlate 3D-chemical structure with biological activity. The pharmacophore hypotheses were developed using e-pharmacophore script and phase module. Pharmacophore hypothesis represents the 3D arrangement of molecular features necessary for activity. A series of 55 compounds with well-assigned HDAC inhibitory activity was used for 3D-QSAR model development. Best 3D-QSAR model, which is a five PLS factor model with good statistics and predictive ability, acquired Q2 (0.7293), R2 (0.9811) and standard deviation (0.0952). Molecular docking were performed using Histone Deacetylase protein (PDB ID: 1t69) and prepared series of hydroxamic acid based HDAC inhibitors. Docking study of compound 43 show significant binding interactions Ser 276 and oxygen atom of dioxine cap region, Gly 151 and amino group and Asp 267 with carboxyl group of CONHOH, which are essential for anticancer activity. On docking, most of the compounds exhibited better glide score values between -8 to -10.5. We have established structure activity correlation using docking, energetic based pharmacophore modelling, pharmacophore and atom based 3D QSAR model. The results of these studies were further used for the design and testing of new HDAC analogs.

Keywords: Docking, e-pharmacophore, HDACIs, QSAR, Suberoylanilidehydroxamic acid.

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Authors: Abdalla Ahmed Abdrabou Emam Eldeib

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For more than a century, the Hague Conference has tackled issues in the most challenging areas of private international law, including family law. Its actions in the realm of international child abduction have been remarkable in two ways during the last two decades. First, on October 25, 1980, the Hague Convention on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction (the Convention) was promulgated as an unusually inventive and powerful tool. Second, the Convention is rapidly becoming more prominent in the development of international child law. By that time, overseas travel had grown more convenient, and more couples were marrying or travelling across national lines. At the same time, parental separation and divorce have increased, leading to an increase in international child custody battles. The convention they drafted avoids legal quagmires and addresses extra-legal issues well. It literally restores the kid to its place of usual residence by establishing that the youngster was unlawfully abducted from that position or, alternatively, was wrongfully kept abroad after an allowed visit. Legal custody of a child of a contested parent is usually followed by the child's abduction or unlawful relocation to another country by the non-custodial parent or other persons. If a child's custodial parent lives outside of Egypt, the youngster may be kidnapped and brought to Egypt. It's natural to ask what laws should apply and what legal norms should be followed while hearing individual instances. This study comprehensively evaluates and estimates the relevant Hague Child Abduction Convention and the current situation in Egypt and which law is applicable for child custody. In addition, this research emphasis, detail, and focus on the position of Cross-border parental child abductions in Egypt. Moreover, examine the Islamic law compared to the Hague Convention on Child Custody in detail, as well as mentioning the treatment of Islamic countries in this matter in general and Egypt's treatment of this matter in particular, as well as the criticism directed at Egypt regarding the application and implementation of child custody issues. The present research backs up this method by using non-doctrinal techniques, including surveys, interviews, and dialogues. An important objective of this research is to examine the factors that contribute to parental child abduction. In this case, family court attorneys and other interested parties serve as the target audience from whom data is collected. A survey questionnaire was developed and sent to the target population in order to collect data for future empirical testing to validate the identified critical factors on Parental Child Abduction. The main finding in this study is breaking the reservations of many Muslim countries to join the Hague Convention with regard to child custody., Likewise, clarify the problems of implementation in practice in cases of kidnapping a child from one of the parents and traveling with him outside the borders of the country. Finally, this study is to provide suggestions for reforming the current Egyptian Family Law to make it an effective and efficient for all dispute's resolution mechanism and the possibility of joining The Hague Convention.

Keywords: egyptian family law, Hague child abduction convention, child custody, cross-border parental child abductions in egypt

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Abd El Rahman Mohamed

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Canopic jars made by the ancient Egyptians from different materials were used to preserve the viscera during the mummification process. The canopic jar studied here dates back to the Late Period (712-332 BC). It is found in the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM), Giza, Egypt. This jar was carved from limestone and covered with a monkey head lid with painted eyes and ears with red pigment and surrounded with black pigment. The jar contains bandages of textile containing mummy viscera with resin and black resin blocks. The canopic jars were made using the sculpting tools that were used by the ancient Egyptians, such as metal chisels (made of copper) and hammers and emptying the mass of the jar from the inside using a tool invented by the ancient Egyptians, which called the emptying drill. This study also aims to use analytical techniques to identify the components of the jar, its contents, pigments, and previous restoration materials and to understand its deterioration aspects. Visual assessment, isolation and identification of fungi, optical microscopy (OM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) were used in our study. The jar showed different signs of deterioration, such as dust, dirt, stains, scratches, classifications, missing parts, and breaks; previous conservation materials include using iron wire, completion mortar and an adhesive for assembly. The results revealed that the jar was carved from Dolomite Limestone, red Hematite pigment, Mastic resin, and Linen textile bandages. The previous adhesive was Animal Glue and used Gypsum for the previous completion. The most dominant Microbial infection on the jar was found in the fungi of (Penicillium waksmanii), (Nigrospora sphaerica), (Actinomycetes sp) and (Spore-Forming Gram-Positive Bacilli). Conservation procedures have been applied with high accuracy to conserve the jar, including mechanical and chemical cleaning, re-assembling, completion and consolidation.

Keywords: Canopic jar, Consolidation, Mummification, Resin, Viscera.

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Authors: Heba I. Bakry

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Academic writing in the tertiary education has always been a challenge to EFL learners. This proposed study aims at investigating the academic English language needs for PhD students and candidates studying humanities and social sciences at Cairo University. The research problem arises from the fact that most of them study English as a Foreign Language (EFL) or for specific purposes (ESP) in their undergraduate years. They are hardly familiarized with the different academic genres, despite the fact that they use academic resources written in English, and they are required to publish a paper internationally. Upon understanding the conventions and constraints of academic writing, postgraduates will have the opportunity to interact with the international academic spheres conveniently. There is, thus, a need to be acquainted with the generally accepted features of the academic genres, such as academic papers and their part-genres, such as writing abstracts, in addition to other occluded genres, such as personal statements and recommendation letters. The lack of practicing many of these genres is caused by the fact that there are clear differences between the rhetoric and conventions of the students' native language, i.e., Arabic, and the target language they are learning in the academic context, i.e., English. Moreover, apart from the general culture represented ethno-linguistically, the learners' 'small' culture represented in a national setting like Cairo University is more defining than their general cultural affiliations that are associated with their nationality, race, or religion, for instance. The main research question of this proposed study is: What is the effect of teaching a genre-based EAP course on the research writing competence of PhD candidates? To reach an answer to this question, the study will attempt to answer the following sub-questions: 1. What are the Egyptian PhD candidates' EAP perceived needs? 2. What are the requisite academic research skills for Egyptian scholars? The study intends to assess the students’ needs, as a step to design and evaluate an EAP course that is based on explaining and scrutinizing a variety of academic genres. Adopting a diagnostic approach, the needs assessment uses quantitative data collected through questionnaires, and qualitative data assembled from semi-structured interviews with the students and their teachers, in addition to non-participant observations of a convenience sample.

Keywords: course design, English for academic purposes, genre-based, needs assessment

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Authors: Seung-Seok Bak, Chang-Mu Jung

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An enough amount supply of industrial complexes is an important national policy in South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign trade. A development process of the industrial complex can distinguish between the planning stage and the construction stage. The planning stage consists of the process of consulting with many stakeholders on the contents of the development of industrial complex, feasibility study, compliance with the Regional policies, and so on. The industrial complex planning stage, including licensing procedure, usually takes about three years in South Korea. The government determined that the appropriate supply of industrial complexes have been delayed, due to the long licensing period and drafted a law to shorten the license period in 2008. The law was expected to shorten the period of licensing, which was about three years, to six months. This paper attempts to show that the shortening of the licensing period does not positively affect the appropriate supply of industrial complexes. To do this, we used Interrupted Time Series Designs. As a result, it was found that the supply of industrial complexes was influenced more by other factors such as actual industrial complex demand of private sector and macro-level economic variables. In addition, the specific provisions of the law conflict with local policy and cause some problems such as damage to nature and agricultural land, traffic congestion.

Keywords: development of industrial complexes, industrial complexes, interrupted time series designs, simplification of licensing procedures for industrial complexes, time series regression

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Authors: Doaa El-Shereef

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The Canaanite civilization was one of the early great civilizations of the Near East, they influenced and been influenced from the civilizations of the ancient world especially the Egyptian and Mesopotamia civilizations. The development of the Canaanite trade started from the Chalcolithic Age to the Iron Age through the oldest trade route in the Middle East. This paper will focus on defining the Canaanites and from where did they come from and the meaning of the term Canaan and how the Ancient Manuscripts define the borders of the land of Canaan and this essay will describe the Canaanite trade route and their exported goods such as cedar wood, and pottery.

Keywords: archaeology, bronze age, Canaanite, colonies, Massilia, pottery, shipwreck, vineyards

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Authors: Nabil Abu-Heakal, Ismail Abo-Ghanema, Basma Hamed Merghani

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The aim of this investigation is to study the effect of seasonal variations in Egypt on hematological parameters, reproductive and metabolic hormones of Egyptian buffalo-cows. This study lasted one year extending from December 2009 to November 2010 and was conducted on sixty buffalo-cows. Group of 5 buffalo-cows at estrus phase were selected monthly. Then, after blood sampling through tail vein puncture in the 2nd day after natural service, they were divided in two samples: one with anticoagulant for hematological analysis and the other without anticoagulant for serum separation. Results of this investigation revealed that the highest atmospheric temperature was in hot summer 32.61±1.12°C versus 26.18±1.67°C in spring and 19.92±0.70°C in winter season, while the highest relative humidity % was in winter season 43.50±1.60% versus 32.50±2.29% in summer season. The rise in temperature-humidity index from 63.73±1.29 in winter to 78.53±1.58 in summer indicates severe heat stress which is associated with significant reduction in total red blood cell count (3.20±0.15×106), hemoglobin concentration (8.83±0.43 g/dl), packed cell volume (30.73±0.12%), lymphocytes % (40.66±2.33 %), serum progesterone hormone concentration (0.56±0.03 ng/mll), estradiol17-B concentration (16.8±0.64 ng/ml), triiodothyronin (T3) concentration (2.33±0.33 ng/ml) and thyroxin hormone (T4) concentration (21.66±1.66 ng/ml), while hot summer resulted in significant increase in mean cell volume (96.55±2.25 fl), mean cell hemoglobin (30.81±1.33 pg), total white blood cell count (10.63±0.97×103), neutrophils % (49.66±2.33%), serum prolactin hormone (PRL) concentration (23.45±1.72 ng/ml) and cortisol hormone concentration (4.47±0.33 ng/ml) compared to winter season. There was no significant seasonal variation in mean cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC). It was concluded that in Egypt there was a seasonal variation in atmospheric temperature, relative humidity, temperature humidity index (THI) and the rise in THI above the upper critical level (72 units), which, for lactating buffalo-cows in Egypt is the major constraint on buffalo-cows' hematological parameters and hormonal secretion that affects animal reproduction. Hence, we should improve climatic conditions inside the dairy farm to eliminate or reduce summer infertility.

Keywords: buffalo, climate change, Egypt, physiological parameters

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Authors: Ajay Kumar Sinha, Sharad Singh, Anukriti Sinha

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Passive energy dissipation method for earthquake protection of structures is undergoing developments for improved performance. Combined use of different types of damping mechanisms has shown positive results in the near past. Different supplemental damping methods like viscous damping, frictional damping and metallic damping are being combined together for optimum performance. The conventional method of connecting passive dampers to structures is a parallel connection between the damper unit and structural member. Researchers are investigating coupling effect of different types of dampers. The most popular choice among the research community is coupling of viscous dampers and frictional dampers. The series and parallel coupling of these damping units are being studied for relative performance of the coupled system on response control of structures against earthquake. In this paper an attempt has been made to couple Fluid Viscous Dampers and Frictional Dampers in series and parallel to form a single unit of damping system. The relative performance of the coupled units has been studied on three dimensional reinforced concrete framed structure. The current theories of structural dynamics in practice for viscous damping and frictional damping have been incorporated in this study. The time history analysis of the structural system with coupled damper units, uncoupled damper units as well as of structural system without any supplemental damping has been performed in this study. The investigations reported in this study show significant improved performance of coupled system. A higher natural frequency of the system outside the forcing frequency has been obtained for structural systems with coupled damper units as against the other cases. The structural response of the structure in terms of storey displacement and storey drift show significant improvement for the case with coupled damper units as against the cases with uncoupled units or without any supplemental damping. The results are promising in terms of improved response of the structure with coupled damper units. Further investigations in this regard for a comparative performance of the series and parallel coupled systems will be carried out to study the optimum behavior of these coupled systems for enhanced response control of structural systems.

Keywords: frictional damping, parallel coupling, response control, series coupling, supplemental damping, viscous damping

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Authors: Nazima Ellahi, Danish Ramzan

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There is a growing trend among development economists regarding the importance of financial sector for economic development and growth activities. The development thus introduced, helps to promote welfare effects and poverty alleviation. This study is an attempt to find the nature of link between Islamic banking financing and development of output growth for Pakistan. Time series data set has been utilized for a time period ranging from 1990 to 2010. Following the Phillip Perron (PP) and Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) test of unit root this study applied Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method of estimation and found encouraging results in favor of promoting the Islamic banking practices in Pakistan.

Keywords: Islamic finance, poverty alleviation, economic growth, finance, commerce

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Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Israa Abu Rumman

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This paper modeled sales history archived from 2012 to 2015 bulked in monthly bins for five products for a medical supply company in Jordan. The sales forecasts and extracted consistent patterns in the sales demand history from the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system were used to predict future forecasting and generate sales demand forecasting using time series analysis statistical technique called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This was used to model and estimate realistic sales demand patterns and predict future forecasting to decide the best models for five products. Analysis revealed that the current replenishment system indicated inventory overstocking.

Keywords: ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R code

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Authors: Sandra Baßler, Peter Dünow, Mathias Marquardt

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A Fourier series based learning control (FSBLC) algorithm for tracking trajectories of mechanical systems with unknown nonlinearities is presented. Two processes are introduced to which the FSBLC with PD controller is applied. One is a simplified service robot capable of climbing stairs due to special wheels and the other is a propeller driven pendulum with nearly the same requirements on control. Additionally to the investigation of learning the feed forward for the desired trajectories some considerations on the implementation of such an algorithm on low cost microcontroller hardware are made. Simulations of the service robot as well as practical experiments on the pendulum show the capability of the used FSBLC algorithm to perform the task of improving control behavior for repetitive task of such mechanical systems.

Keywords: climbing stairs, FSBLC, ILC, service robot

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Authors: D. Prangchumpol

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This research presents a forecasting method of requisition document demands for Military units by using Exponential Smoothing methods to analyze data. The data used in the forecast is an actual data requisition document of The Adjutant General Department. The results of the forecasting model to forecast the requisition of the document found that Holt–Winters’ trend and seasonality method of α=0.1, β=0, γ=0 is appropriate and matches for requisition of documents. In addition, the researcher has developed a requisition online system to improve the performance of requisition documents of The Adjutant General Department, and also ensuring that the operation can be checked.

Keywords: requisition, holt–winters, time series, royal thai army

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Authors: Adam J. Carinci

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Background: The opioid epidemic is the most pressing healthcare crisis of our time. There is increasing recognition that opioids have limited long-term efficacy and are associated with hyperalgesia, addiction, and increased morbidity and mortality. Therefore, alternative strategies to combat chronic pain are paramount. We initiated a multicenter retrospective case series to review the efficacy of DRG stimulation in facilitating opioid tapering, opioid discontinuation and as a viable alternative to chronic opioid therapy. Purpose: The dorsal root ganglion (DRG) plays a key role in the development and maintenance of pain. Recent innovations in neuromodulation, specifically, dorsal root ganglion stimulation, offers an effective alternative to opioids in the treatment of chronic pain. This retrospective case series demonstrates preliminary evidence that DRG stimulation facilitates opioid tapering, opioid discontinuation and presents a viable alternative to chronic opioid therapy. Procedure: This small multicenter retrospective case series provides preliminary evidence that DRG stimulation facilitates opioid weaning, opioid tapering and is a viable option to opioid therapy in the treatment of chronic pain. A retrospective analysis was completed. Visual analog scale pain scores and pain medication usage were collected at the baseline visit and after four weeks, 3 months and 6 months of treatment. Ten consecutive patients across two study centers were included. The pain was rated 7.38 at baseline and decreased to 1.50 at the 4-week follow-up, a reduction of 79.5%. All patients significantly decreased their opioid pain medication use with an average > 30% reduction in morphine equivalents and four were able to discontinue their medications entirely. Conclusion: This Retrospective case series demonstrates preliminary evidence that DRG stimulation facilitates opioid tapering, opioid discontinuation and presents a viable alternative to chronic opioid therapy.

Keywords: dorsal root ganglion, neuromodulation, opioid sparing, stimulation

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The relative failure of simultaneous equation models in the seventies has led researchers to turn to other approaches that take into account the dynamics of economic and financial systems. In this paper, we use an approach based on vector autoregressive model that is widely used in recent years. Their popularity is due to their flexible nature and ease of use to produce models with useful descriptive characteristics. It is also easy to use them to test economic hypotheses. The standard econometric techniques assume that the series studied are stable over time (stationary hypothesis). Most economic series do not verify this hypothesis, which assumes, when one wishes to study the relationships that bind them to implement specific techniques. This is cointegration which characterizes non-stationary series (integrated) with a linear combination is stationary, will also be presented in this paper. Since the work of Johansen, this approach is generally presented as part of a multivariate analysis and to specify long-term stable relationships while at the same time analyzing the short-term dynamics of the variables considered. In the empirical part, we have applied these concepts to study the dynamics of of the exchange rate in Tunisia, which is one of the most important economic policy of a country open to the outside. According to the results of the empirical study by the cointegration method, there is a cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants. This relationship shows that the variables have a significant influence in determining the exchange rate in Tunisia.

Keywords: stationarity, cointegration, dynamic models, causality, VECM models

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Authors: Ahmad Awajan, Sadam Al Wadi

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In this study, a hybrid method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Holt-Winter (EMD-HW) is used to forecast Amman stock market data. First, the data are decomposed by EMD method into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and residual components. Then, all components are forecasted by HW technique. Finally, forecasting values are aggregated together to get the forecasting value of stock market data. Empirical results showed that the EMD- HW outperform individual forecasting models. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non- linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy comparing with eight existing forecasting methods based on the five forecast error measures.

Keywords: Holt-Winter method, empirical mode decomposition, forecasting, time series

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Authors: Jazim Sohail, Filipe Teixeira-Dias

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Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) within non-helmeted contact sports is a growing concern due to the serious risk of potential injury. Extensive research is being conducted looking into head kinematics in non-helmeted contact sports utilizing instrumented mouthguards that allow researchers to record accelerations and velocities of the head during and after an impact. This does not, however, allow the location of the impact on the head, and its magnitude and orientation, to be determined. This research proposes and validates two methods to quantify impact locations from instrumented mouthguard kinematic data, one using rigid body dynamics, the other utilizing machine learning. The rigid body dynamics technique focuses on establishing and matching moments from Euler’s and torque equations in order to find the impact location on the head. The methodology is validated with impact data collected from a lab test with the dummy head fitted with an instrumented mouthguard. Additionally, a Hybrid III Dummy head finite element model was utilized to create synthetic kinematic data sets for impacts from varying locations to validate the impact location algorithm. The algorithm calculates accurate impact locations; however, it will require preprocessing of live data, which is currently being done by cross-referencing data timestamps to video footage. The machine learning technique focuses on eliminating the preprocessing aspect by establishing trends within time-series signals from instrumented mouthguards to determine the impact location on the head. An unsupervised learning technique is used to cluster together impacts within similar regions from an entire time-series signal. The kinematic signals established from mouthguards are converted to the frequency domain before using a clustering algorithm to cluster together similar signals within a time series that may span the length of a game. Impacts are clustered within predetermined location bins. The same Hybrid III Dummy finite element model is used to create impacts that closely replicate on-field impacts in order to create synthetic time-series datasets consisting of impacts in varying locations. These time-series data sets are used to validate the machine learning technique. The rigid body dynamics technique provides a good method to establish accurate impact location of impact signals that have already been labeled as true impacts and filtered out of the entire time series. However, the machine learning technique provides a method that can be implemented with long time series signal data but will provide impact location within predetermined regions on the head. Additionally, the machine learning technique can be used to eliminate false impacts captured by sensors saving additional time for data scientists using instrumented mouthguard kinematic data as validating true impacts with video footage would not be required.

Keywords: head impacts, impact location, instrumented mouthguard, machine learning, mTBI

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Authors: Ahmed M. Mansour, Ali M. El-Sawy, Ahmed T. Sayed

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Logarithms reduce products to sums and powers to products; they play an important role in signal processing, communication and information theory. They are primarily used for hardware calculations, handling multiplications, divisions, powers, and roots effectively. There are three commonly used bases for logarithms; the logarithm with base-10 is called the common logarithm, the natural logarithm with base-e and the binary logarithm with base-2. This paper demonstrates different methods of calculation for log2 showing the complexity of each and finds out the most accurate and efficient besides giving in- sights to their hardware design. We present a new method called Floor Shift for fast calculation of log2, and then we combine this algorithm with Taylor series to improve the accuracy of the output, we illustrate that by using two examples. We finally compare the algorithms and conclude with our remarks.

Keywords: logarithms, log2, floor, iterative, CORDIC, Taylor series

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Authors: Vidya Meshram, Shrinivas Surpam, Akshay Kokode, Laxman Shedmake, Ramesh Parchake

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Tribal dance form is an integral part of the tribal culture as they represent the traditional culture of the tribal community. This article provide the reasons for the need to preserve the tribal dance form of Indian tribal people as a part of the cultural heritage. This article describe our experience of co-ordination of three organization to conduct a dance performance of Gond Tribe artists in the Mumbai City. This is the part of the promotion of tribal artist at big platform, although the preservation and awareness of tribal dance form in the metro cities. This is an example of an exceptional Inter-Organizational Cooperation between Kosodum Welfare Private Limited, GondwanaJangomDhemsaRelaNrutya Dal &GondwanaMitraMandal, Mumbai, for the preservation of tribal dance form.

Keywords: tribal, art, culture, preservation

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Authors: Lal Hussain, Wajid Aziz, Sajjad Ahmed Nadeem, Saeed Arif Shah, Abdul Majid

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Brain electrical activity as reflected in Electroencephalography (EEG) have been analyzed and diagnosed using various techniques. Among them, complexity measure, nonlinearity, disorder, and unpredictability play vital role due to the nonlinear interconnection between functional and anatomical subsystem emerged in brain in healthy state and during various diseases. There are many social and economical issues of alcoholic abuse as memory weakness, decision making, impairments, and concentrations etc. Alcoholism not only defect the brains but also associated with emotional, behavior, and cognitive impairments damaging the white and gray brain matters. A recently developed signal analysis method i.e. Multiscale Permutation Entropy (MPE) is proposed to estimate the complexity of long-range temporal correlation time series EEG of Alcoholic and Control subjects acquired from University of California Machine Learning repository and results are compared with MSE. Using MPE, coarsed grained series is first generated and the PE is computed for each coarsed grained time series against the electrodes O1, O2, C3, C4, F2, F3, F4, F7, F8, Fp1, Fp2, P3, P4, T7, and T8. The results computed against each electrode using MPE gives higher significant values as compared to MSE as well as mean rank differences accordingly. Likewise, ROC and Area under the ROC also gives higher separation against each electrode using MPE in comparison to MSE.

Keywords: electroencephalogram (EEG), multiscale permutation entropy (MPE), multiscale sample entropy (MSE), permutation entropy (PE), mann whitney test (MMT), receiver operator curve (ROC), complexity measure

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Authors: Kapil Pandey, Vishnu Goyal

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Spatial and temporal data analysis is very well known in the field of satellite image processing. When spatial data are correlated with time, series analysis it gives the significant results in change detection studies. In this paper the GIS and Remote sensing techniques has been used to find the change detection using time series satellite imagery of Uttarakhand state during the years of 1990-2010. Natural vegetation, urban area, forest cover etc. were chosen as main landuse classes to study. Landuse/ landcover classes within several years were prepared using satellite images. Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was adopted in this work and finally landuse change index has been generated and graphical models were used to present the changes.

Keywords: GIS, landuse/landcover, spatial and temporal data, remote sensing

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Authors: Andreas Gohs, Reinhold Kosfeld

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This study should be of interest for practitioners who want to predict precisely the sales numbers of vehicles equipped with an innovative propulsion technology as well as for researchers interested in applied (regional) time series analysis. The study is based on the numbers of new registrations of pure electric and hybrid cars. Methods of time series analysis like ARIMA are compared with the Bass Diffusion-model concerning their forecasting performances for new registrations in Germany at the national and federal state levels. Especially it is investigated if the additional information content from regional data increases the forecasting accuracy for the national level by adding predictions for the federal states. Results of parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model estimated for Germany and its sixteen federal states are reported. While the focus of this research is on the German market, estimation results are also provided for selected European and other countries. Concerning Bass-parameters and forecasting performances, we get very different results for Germany's federal states and the member states of the European Union. This corresponds to differences across the EU-member states in the adoption process of this innovative technology. Concerning the German market, the adoption is rather proceeded in southern Germany and stays behind in Eastern Germany except for Berlin.

Keywords: bass diffusion model, electric vehicles, forecasting performance, market diffusion

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Authors: Majid Mathlouthi, Fethi Lebdi

Abstract:

Throughout the world, the extent and magnitude of droughts have economic, social and environmental consequences. Today climate change has become more and more felt; most likely they increase the frequency and duration of droughts. An analysis by event of dry event, from series of observations of the daily rainfall is carried out. A daily precipitation threshold value has been set. A catchment localized in Northern Tunisia where the average rainfall is about 600 mm has been studied. Rainfall events are defined as an uninterrupted series of rainfall days understanding at least a day having received a precipitation superior or equal to a fixed threshold. The dry events are constituted of a series of dry days framed by two successive rainfall events. A rainfall event is a vector of coordinates the duration, the rainfall depth per event and the duration of the dry event. The depth and duration are found to be correlated. So we use conditional probabilities to analyse the depth per event. The negative binomial distribution fits well the dry event. The duration of the rainfall event follows a geometric distribution. The length of the climatically cycle adjusts to the Incomplete Gamma. Results of this analysis was used to study of the effects of climate change on water resources and crops and to calibrate precipitation models with little rainfall records. In response to long droughts in the basin, the drought management system is based on three phases during each of the three phases; different measurements are applied and executed. The first is before drought, preparedness and early warning; the second is drought management, mitigation in the event of drought; and the last subsequent drought, when the drought is over.

Keywords: dry spell, precipitation threshold, climate vulnerability, adaptation measures

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Authors: Selman Selim Akyüz, Mete Kazaz

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Since The First Gulf War, USA, “Leader of The Free World” has been in trouble with terror. The USA created a complexity in The Middle East and paid the price with terrorist attacks in homeland. USA has made serious mistakes in terms of antiterrorism and fight against its supporters. Democrats have repaired damages caused by the Republican Party's management. Old methods about antiterrorism have been slowly abandoned. Hollywood, too, has played an important part in this war. Sometimes, Hollywood became an unquestioned patriot, sometimes it cried for the death of American Soldiers far away. In this study, messages in The Homeland, broadcast in the USA and a lot of countries around the world, are analyzed in terms of Washington’s foreign policy and position of the CIA in the fight against antiterrorism. The series reflect an orientalist viewpoint and has been criticized for offensive policy against the government. Homeland wanted to offer a perspective for the USA to be the “Leader of The Free World” again but with a liberal-democrat approach, dialogue and rational intelligence methods.

Keywords: antiterrorism, CIA, homeland, USA

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Authors: Olivier Delage, Thierry Portafaix, Hassan Bencherif, Guillaume Guimbretiere

Abstract:

Most observation data sequences in geophysics can be interpreted as resulting from the interaction of several physical processes at several time and space scales. As a consequence, measurements time series in geophysics have often characteristics of non-linearity and non-stationarity and thereby exhibit strong fluctuations at all time-scales and require a time-frequency representation to analyze their variability. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a relatively new technic as part of a more general signal processing method called the Hilbert-Huang transform. This analysis method turns out to be particularly suitable for non-linear and non-stationary signals and consists in decomposing a signal in an auto adaptive way into a sum of oscillating components named IMFs (Intrinsic Mode Functions), and thereby acts as a bank of bandpass filters. The advantages of the EMD technic are to be entirely data driven and to provide the principal variability modes of the dynamics represented by the original time series. However, the main limiting factor is the frequency resolution that may give rise to the mode mixing phenomenon where the spectral contents of some IMFs overlap each other. To overcome this problem, J. Gilles proposed an alternative entitled “Empirical Wavelet Transform” (EWT) which consists in building from the segmentation of the original signal Fourier spectrum, a bank of filters. The method used is based on the idea utilized in the construction of both Littlewood-Paley and Meyer’s wavelets. The heart of the method lies in the segmentation of the Fourier spectrum based on the local maxima detection in order to obtain a set of non-overlapping segments. Because linked to the Fourier spectrum, the frequency resolution provided by EWT is higher than that provided by EMD and therefore allows to overcome the mode-mixing problem. On the other hand, if the EWT technique is able to detect the frequencies involved in the original time series fluctuations, EWT does not allow to associate the detected frequencies to a specific mode of variability as in the EMD technic. Because EMD is closer to the observation of physical phenomena than EWT, we propose here a new technic called EAWD (Empirical Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition) based on the coupling of the EMD and EWT technics by using the IMFs density spectral content to optimize the segmentation of the Fourier spectrum required by EWT. In this study, EMD and EWT technics are described, then EAWD technic is presented. Comparison of results obtained respectively by EMD, EWT and EAWD technics on time series of ozone total columns recorded at Reunion island over [1978-2019] period is discussed. This study was carried out as part of the SOLSTYCE project dedicated to the characterization and modeling of the underlying dynamics of time series issued from complex systems in atmospheric sciences

Keywords: adaptive filtering, empirical mode decomposition, empirical wavelet transform, filter banks, mode-mixing, non-linear and non-stationary time series, wavelet

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