Search results for: rural regional
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3267

Search results for: rural regional

207 Monitoring Air Pollution Effects on Children for Supporting Public Health Policy: Preliminary Results of MAPEC_LIFE Project

Authors: Elisabetta Ceretti, Silvia Bonizzoni, Alberto Bonetti, Milena Villarini, Marco Verani, Maria Antonella De Donno, Sara Bonetta, Umberto Gelatti

Abstract:

Introduction: Air pollution is a global problem. In 2013, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified air pollution and particulate matter as carcinogenic to human. The study of the health effects of air pollution in children is very important because they are a high-risk group in terms of the health effects of air pollution and early exposure during childhood can increase the risk of developing chronic diseases in adulthood. The MAPEC_LIFE (Monitoring Air Pollution Effects on Children for supporting public health policy) is a project founded by EU Life+ Programme which intends to evaluate the associations between air pollution and early biological effects in children and to propose a model for estimating the global risk of early biological effects due to air pollutants and other factors in children. Methods: The study was carried out on 6-8-year-old children living in five Italian towns in two different seasons. Two biomarkers of early biological effects, primary DNA damage detected with the comet assay and frequency of micronuclei, were investigated in buccal cells of children. Details of children diseases, socio-economic status, exposures to other pollutants and life-style were collected using a questionnaire administered to children’s parents. Child exposure to urban air pollution was assessed by analysing PM0.5 samples collected in the school areas for PAHs and nitro-PAHs concentration, lung toxicity and in vitro genotoxicity on bacterial and human cells. Data on the chemical features of the urban air during the study period were obtained from the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection. The project created also the opportunity to approach the issue of air pollution with the children, trying to raise their awareness on air quality, its health effects and some healthy behaviors by means of an educational intervention in the schools. Results: 1315 children were recruited for the study and participate in the first sampling campaign in the five towns. The second campaign, on the same children, is still ongoing. The preliminary results of the tests on buccal mucosa cells of children will be presented during the conference as well as the preliminary data about the chemical composition and the toxicity and genotoxicity features of PM0.5 samples. The educational package was tested on 250 children of the primary school and showed to be very useful, improving children knowledge about air pollution and its effects and stimulating their interest. Conclusions: The associations between levels of air pollutants, air mutagenicity and biomarkers of early effects will be investigated. A tentative model to calculate the global absolute risk of having early biological effects for air pollution and other variables together will be proposed and may be useful to support policy-making and community interventions to protect children from possible health effects of air pollutants.

Keywords: air pollution exposure, biomarkers of early effects, children, public health policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 312
206 Selling Electric Vehicles: Experiences from Car Salesmen in Sweden

Authors: Jens Hagman, Jenny Janhager Stier, Ellen Olausson, Anne Y. Faxer, Ana Magazinius

Abstract:

Sweden has the second highest electric vehicle (plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicle) sales per capita in Europe but in relation to sales of internal combustion engine electric vehicles sales are still minuscular (< 4%). Much research effort has been placed on various technical and user focused barriers and enablers for adoption of electric vehicles. Less effort has been placed on investigating the retail (dealership-customer) sales process of vehicles in general and electric vehicles in particular. Arguably, no one ought to be better informed about needs and desires of potential electric vehicle buyers than car salesmen, originating from their daily encounters with customers at the dealership. The aim of this paper is to explore the conditions of selling electric vehicle from a car salesmen’s perspective. This includes identifying barriers and enablers for electric vehicle sales originating from internal (dealership and brand) and external (customer, government) sources. In this interview study five car brands (manufacturers) that sell both electric and internal combustion engine vehicles have been investigated. A total of 15 semi-structured interviews have been conducted (three per brand, in rural and urban settings and at different dealerships). Initial analysis reveals several barriers and enablers, experienced by car salesmen, which influence electric vehicle sales. Examples of as reported by car salesmen identified barriers are: -Electric vehicles earn car salesmen less commission on average compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. -It takes more time to sell and deliver an electric vehicle than an internal combustion engine vehicle. -Current leasing contracts entails relatively low second-hand value estimations for electric vehicles and thus a high leasing fee, which negatively affects the attractiveness of electric vehicles for private consumers in particular. -High purchasing price discourages many consumers from considering electric vehicles. -The education and knowledge level of electric vehicles differs between car salesmen, which could affect their self-confidence in meeting well prepared and question prone electric vehicle buyers. Examples of identified enablers are: -Company car tax regulation promotes sales of electric vehicles; in particular, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are sold extensively to companies (up to 95 % of sales). -Low operating cost of electric vehicles such as fuel and service is an advantage when understood by consumers. -The drive performance of electric vehicles (quick, silent and fun to drive) is attractive to consumers. -Environmental aspects are considered important for certain consumer groups. -Fast technological improvements, such as increased range are opening up a wider market for electric vehicles. -For one of the brands; attractive private lease campaigns have proved effective to promote sales. This paper gives insights of an important but often overlooked aspect for the diffusion of electric vehicles (and durable products in general); the interaction between car salesmen and customers at the critical acquiring moment. Extracted through interviews with multiple car salesmen. The results illuminate untapped potential for sellers (salesmen, dealerships and brands) to mitigating sales barriers and strengthening sales enablers and thus becoming a more important actor in the electric vehicle diffusion process.

Keywords: customer barriers, electric vehicle promotion, sales of electric vehicles, interviews with car salesmen

Procedia PDF Downloads 208
205 Methodological Approach to the Elaboration and Implementation of the Spatial-Urban Plan for the Special Purpose Area: Case-Study of Infrastructure Corridor of Highway E-80, Section Nis-Merdare, Serbia

Authors: Nebojsa Stefanovic, Sasa Milijic, Natasa Danilovic Hristic

Abstract:

Spatial plan of the special purpose area constitutes a basic tool in the planning of infrastructure corridor of a highway. The aim of the plan is to define the planning basis and provision of spatial conditions for the construction and operation of the highway, as well as for developing other infrastructure systems in the corridor. This paper presents a methodology and approach to the preparation of the Spatial Plan for the special purpose area for the infrastructure corridor of the highway E-80, Section Niš-Merdare in Serbia. The applied methodological approach is based on the combined application of the integrative and participatory method in the decision-making process on the sustainable development of the highway corridor. It was found that, for the planning and management of the infrastructure corridor, a key problem is coordination of spatial and urban planning, strategic environmental assessment and sectoral traffic planning and designing. Through the development of the plan, special attention is focused on increasing the accessibility of the local and regional surrounding, reducing the adverse impacts on the development of settlements and the economy, protection of natural resources, natural and cultural heritage, and the development of other infrastructure systems in the corridor of the highway. As a result of the applied methodology, this paper analyzes the basic features such as coverage, the concept, protected zones, service facilities and objects, the rules of development and construction, etc. Special emphasis is placed to methodology and results of the Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Spatial Plan, and to the importance of protection measures, with the special significance of air and noise protection measures. For evaluation in the Strategic Environmental Assessment, a multicriteria expert evaluation (semi-quantitative method) of planned solutions was used in relation to the set of goals and relevant indicators, based on the basic set of indicators of sustainable development. Evaluation of planned solutions encompassed the significance and size, spatial conditions and probability of the impact of planned solutions on the environment, and the defined goals of strategic assessment. The framework of the implementation of the Spatial Plan is presented, which is determined for the simultaneous elaboration of planning solutions at two levels: the strategic level of the spatial plan and detailed urban plan level. It is also analyzed the relationship of the Spatial Plan to other applicable planning documents for the planning area. The effects of this methodological approach relate to enabling integrated planning of the sustainable development of the infrastructure corridor of the highway and its surrounding area, through coordination of spatial, urban and sectoral traffic planning and design, as well as the participation of all key actors in the adoption and implementation of planned decisions. By the conclusions of the paper, it is pointed to the direction for further research, particularly in terms of harmonizing methodology of planning documentation and preparation of technical-design documentation.

Keywords: corridor, environment, highway, impact, methodology, spatial plan, urban

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
204 Restless Leg Syndrome as the Presenting Symptom of Neuroendocrine Tumor

Authors: Mustafa Cam, Nedim Ongun, Ufuk Kutluana

Abstract:

Introduction: Restless LegsSyndrome (RLS) is a common, under-recognized disorder disrupts sleep and diminishes quality of life (1). The most common conditions highly associated with RLS include renalfailure, iron and folic acid deficiency, peripheral neuropathy, pregnancy, celiacdisease, Crohn’sdiseaseandrarelymalignancy (2).Despite a clear relation between low peripheral iron and increased prevalence and severity of RLS, the prevalence and clinical significance of RLS in iron-deficientanemic populations is unknown (2). We report here a case of RLS due to iron deficiency in the setting of neuroendocrinetumor. Report of Case: A 35 year-old man was referred to our clinic with general weakness, weight loss (10 kg in 2 months)and 2-month history of uncomfortable sensations in his legs with urge to move, partially relieved by movement. The symptoms were presented very day, worsening in the evening; the discomfort forced the patient to getup and walk around at night. RLS was severe, with a score of 22 at the International RLS ratingscale. The patient had no past medical history. The patient underwent a complete set of blood analyses and the following ab normal values were found (normal limitswithinbrackets): hemoglobin 9.9 g/dl (14-18), MCV 70 fL (80-94), ferritin 3,5 ng/mL (13-150). Brain and spinemagnetic resonance imaging was normal. The patient consultated with gastroenterology clinic and gastointestinal systemendoscopy was performed for theetiology of the iron deficiency anemia. After the gastricbiopsy, results allowed us to reach the diagnosis of neuroen docrine tumor and the patient referred to oncology clinic. Discussion: The first important consideration from this case report is that the patient was referred to our clinic because of his severe RLS symptoms dramatically reducing his quality of life. However, our clinical study clearly demonstrated that RLS was not the primary disease. Considering the information available for this patient, we believe that the most likely possibility is that RLS was secondary to iron deficiency, a very well-known and established cause of RLS in theliterature (3,4). Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are rare epithelial neoplasms with neuroendocrine differentiation that most commonly originate in the lungs and gastrointestinal tract (5). NETs vary widely in their clinical presentation; symptoms are often nonspecific and can be mistaken for those of other more common conditions (6). 50% of patients with reported disease stage have either regional or distant metastases at diagnosis (7). Accurate and earlier NET diagnosis is the first step in shortening the time to optimal care and improved outcomes for patients (8). The most important message from this case report is that RLS symptoms can sometimes be thesign of a life-threatening condition. Conclusion: Careful and complete collection of clinical and laboratory data should be carried out in RLS patients. Inparticular, if RLS onset coincides with weight loss and iron deficieny anemia, gastricendos copy should be performed. It is known about that malignancy is a rare etiology in RLS patients and to our knowledge; it is the first case with neuro endocrine tumor presenting with RLS.

Keywords: neurology, neuroendocrine tumor, restless legs syndrome, sleep

Procedia PDF Downloads 267
203 Islam in Nation Building: Case Studies of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

Authors: Etibar Guliyev, Durdana Jafarli

Abstract:

The breakdown of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s and the 9/11 attacks resulted in the global changes created a totally new geopolitical situation for the Muslim populated republics of the former Soviet Union. Located between great powers such as China and Russia, as well as theocratic states like Iran and Afghanistan, the newly independent Central Asian states were facing a dilemma to choose a new politico-ideological course for development. Policies dubbed Perestroyka and Glasnost leading to the collapse of the world’s once superpower brought about a considerable rise in the national and religious self-consciousness of the Muslim population of the USSR where the religion was prohibited under the strict communist rule. Moreover, the religious movements prohibited during the Soviet era acted as a part of national straggle to gain their freedom from Moscow. The policies adopted by the Central Asian countries to manage the religious revival and extremism in their countries vary dramatically from each other. As Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are located between Russia and China and hosting a considerable number of the Russian population, these countries treated Islamic revival more tolerantly trying benefit from it in the nation-building process. The importance of the topic could be explained with the fact that it investigates an alternative way of management of religious activities and movements. The recent developments in the Middle East, Syria and Iraq in particular, and the fact that hundreds of fighters from the Central Asian republics joined the ISIL terrorist organization once again highlights the implications of the proper regulation of religious activities not only for domestic, but also for regional and global politics. The paper is based on multiple research methods. The process trace method was exploited to better understand the Russification and anti-religious policies to which the Central Asian countries were subject during the Soviet era. The comparative analyse method was also used to better understand the common and distinct features of the politics of religion of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and the rest of the Central Asian countries. Various legislation acts, as well as secondary sources were investigated to this end. Mostly constructivist approach and a theory suggesting that religion supports national identity when there is a third cohesion that threatens both and when elements of national identity are weak. Preliminary findings suggest that in line with policies aimed at gradual reduction of Russian influence, as well as in the face of ever-increasing migration from China, the mentioned countries incorporated some Islamic elements into domestic policies as a part and parcel of national culture. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan did not suppress religious activities, which was case in neighboring states, but allowed in a controlled way Islamic movements to have a relatively freedom of action which in turn led to the less violent religious extremism further boosting national identity.

Keywords: identity, Islam, nationalism, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
202 Employing Remotely Sensed Soil and Vegetation Indices and Predicting ‎by Long ‎Short-Term Memory to Irrigation Scheduling Analysis

Authors: Elham Koohikerade, Silvio Jose Gumiere

Abstract:

In this research, irrigation is highlighted as crucial for improving both the yield and quality of ‎potatoes due to their high sensitivity to soil moisture changes. The study presents a hybrid Long ‎Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model aimed at optimizing irrigation scheduling in potato fields in ‎Quebec City, Canada. This model integrates model-based and satellite-derived datasets to simulate ‎soil moisture content, addressing the limitations of field data. Developed under the guidance of the ‎Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the simulation approach compensates for the lack of direct ‎soil sensor data, enhancing the LSTM model's predictions. The model was calibrated using indices ‎like Surface Soil Moisture (SSM), Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI), Enhanced ‎Vegetation Index (EVI), and Normalized Multi-band Drought Index (NMDI) to effectively forecast ‎soil moisture reductions. Understanding soil moisture and plant development is crucial for assessing ‎drought conditions and determining irrigation needs. This study validated the spectral characteristics ‎of vegetation and soil using ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and Moderate Resolution Imaging ‎Spectrometer (MODIS) data from 2019 to 2023, collected from agricultural areas in Dolbeau and ‎Peribonka, Quebec. Parameters such as surface volumetric soil moisture (0-7 cm), NDVI, EVI, and ‎NMDI were extracted from these images. A regional four-year dataset of soil and vegetation moisture ‎was developed using a machine learning approach combining model-based and satellite-based ‎datasets. The LSTM model predicts soil moisture dynamics hourly across different locations and ‎times, with its accuracy verified through cross-validation and comparison with existing soil moisture ‎datasets. The model effectively captures temporal dynamics, making it valuable for applications ‎requiring soil moisture monitoring over time, such as anomaly detection and memory analysis. By ‎identifying typical peak soil moisture values and observing distribution shapes, irrigation can be ‎scheduled to maintain soil moisture within Volumetric Soil Moisture (VSM) values of 0.25 to 0.30 ‎m²/m², avoiding under and over-watering. The strong correlations between parcels suggest that a ‎uniform irrigation strategy might be effective across multiple parcels, with adjustments based on ‎specific parcel characteristics and historical data trends. The application of the LSTM model to ‎predict soil moisture and vegetation indices yielded mixed results. While the model effectively ‎captures the central tendency and temporal dynamics of soil moisture, it struggles with accurately ‎predicting EVI, NDVI, and NMDI.‎

Keywords: irrigation scheduling, LSTM neural network, remotely sensed indices, soil and vegetation ‎monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 24
201 Cinema Reception in a Digital World: A Study of Cinema Audiences in India

Authors: Sanjay Ranade

Abstract:

Traditional film theory assumes the cinema audience in a darkened room where cinema is projected on to a white screen, and the audience suspends their sense of reality. Shifts in audiences due to changes in cultural tastes or trends have been studied for decades. In the past two decades, however, the audience, especially the youth, has shifted to digital media for the consumption of cinema. As a result, not only are audiences watching cinema on different devices, they are also consuming cinema in places and ways never imagined before. Public transport often crowded to the brim with a lot of ambient content, and a variety of workplaces have become sites for cinema viewing. Cinema is watched piecemeal and at different times of the day. Audiences use devices such as mobile phones and tablets to watch cinema. The cinema viewing experience is getting redesigned by the user. The emerging design allows the spectator to not only consume images and narratives but also produce, reproduce, and manipulate existing images and narratives, thereby participating in the process and influencing it. Spectatorship studies stress on the importance of subjectivity when dealing with the structure of the film text and the cultural and psychological implications in the engagement between the spectator and the film text. Indian cinema has been booming and contributing to global movie production significantly. In 2005 film production was 1000 films a year and doubled to 2000 by 2016. Digital technology helped push this growth in 2012. Film studies in India have had a decided Euro-American bias. The studies have chiefly analysed the content for ideological leanings or myth or as reflections of society, societal changes, or articulation of identity or presented retrospectives of directors, actors, music directors, etc. The one factor relegated to the background has been the spectator. If they have been addressed, they are treated as a collective of class or gender. India has a performative tradition going back several centuries. How Indians receive cinema is an important aspect to study with respect to film studies. This exploratory and descriptive study looked at 162 young media students studying cinema at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels. The students, speaking as many as 20 languages amongst them, were drawn from across the country’s media schools. The study looked at nine film societies registered with the Federation of Film Societies of India. A structured questionnaire was made and distributed online through media teachers for the students. The film societies were approached through the regional office of the FFSI in Mumbai. Lastly, group discussions were held in Mumbai with students and teachers of media. A group consisted of between five and twelve student participants, along with one or two teachers. All the respondents looked at themselves as spectators and shared their experiences of spectators of cinema, providing a very rich insight into Indian conditions of viewing cinema and challenges for cinema ahead.

Keywords: audience, digital, film studies, reception, reception spectatorship

Procedia PDF Downloads 114
200 Wildfire Risk and Biodiversity Management: Understanding Perceptions and Preparedness

Authors: Emily Moskwa, Delene Weber, Jacob Arnold, Guy M. Robinson, Douglas K. Bardsley

Abstract:

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire are key contemporary concerns, with a growing literature exploring these issues from a social research perspective. Efforts range from narrowly focused examinations, such as comparing the level of community support for vegetation clearance with that of controlled burning, to broader considerations of what constitutes effective fire management policy and education campaigns. However, little analysis is available that integrates the social component of risk mitigation and the influence of educational materials with the biodiversity conservation strategies so often needed in fire-prone ecosystems found on the periphery of urban areas. Indeed many communities living on the fringe of Australian cities face major issues relating to an increased risk of wildfire events and a decline in local biodiversity. Inadequate policy and planning, and a lack of awareness or information, exacerbate this risk. This has brought forward an emerging governance challenge that requires the mitigation of wildfire risk while simultaneously supporting improved conservation practices in these urban-fringe areas. Focusing on the perceptions and experiences of residents of the Lower Eyre Peninsula in South Australia, this study analyses data collected from a series of semi-structured interviews with landholders (n=20) living in rural and urban-fringe areas surrounding the city of Port Lincoln, a city with a growing population and one that has faced a number of very large fires in recent years. In South Australia, new policies have assigned increased responsibility on individual landholders to manage their land and prepare themselves for a wildfire event, potentially to the detriment of the surrounding native vegetation. Our findings indicate the value of gaining a more nuanced understanding of the perceptions and behaviours of landholders living in areas of high fire risk, who often choose to live there in order to be close to the natural environment. Many interviewees demonstrated a high awareness of wildfire risk as a result of their past experience with fire, and the majority considered themselves to be well-prepared in the event of a future fire. Community interactions and educational programs were found to be effective in raising awareness of risk; however, negative trust relationships with government authorities and low exposure to information concerning biodiversity resulted in an overall misunderstanding of the relationship between risk mitigation and biodiversity protection. The study offers insights into how catastrophic fires are reframing perceptions of what constitutes effective vegetation management. It provides recommendations to assist with the development of education strategies that concurrently address wildfire management and biodiversity conservation, and contribute towards environmentally-informed and risk conscious governance.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, risk, peri-urban planning, wildfire management

Procedia PDF Downloads 229
199 Biological Monitoring: Vegetation Cover, Bird Assemblages, Rodents, Terrestrial and Aquatic Invertebrates from a Closed Landfill

Authors: A. Cittadino, P. Gantes, C. Coviella, M. Casset, A. Sanchez Caro

Abstract:

Three currently active landfills receive the waste from Buenos Aires city and the Great Buenos Aires suburbs. One of the first landfills to receive solid waste from this area was located in Villa Dominico, some 7 km south from Buenos Aires City. With an area of some 750 ha, including riparian habitats, divided into 14 cells, it received solid wastes from June 1979 through February 2004. In December 2010, a biological monitoring program was set up by CEAMSE and Universidad Nacional de Lujan, still operational to date. The aim of the monitoring program is to assess the state of several biological groups within the landfill and to follow their dynamics overtime in order to identify if any, early signs of damage the landfill activities might have over the biota present. Bird and rodent populations, aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates’ populations, cells vegetation coverage, and surrounding areas vegetation coverage and main composition are followed by quarterly samplings. Bird species richness and abundance were estimated by observation over walk transects on each environment. A total of 74 different species of birds were identified. Species richness and diversity were high for both riparian surrounding areas and within the landfill. Several grassland -typical of the 'Pampa'- bird species were found within the landfill, as well as some migratory and endangered bird species. Sherman and Tomahawk traps are set overnight for small mammal sampling. Rodent populations are just above detection limits, and the few specimens captured belong mainly to species common to rural areas, instead of city-dwelling species. The two marsupial species present in the region were captured on occasions. Aquatic macroinvertebrates were sampled on a watercourse upstream and downstream the outlet of the landfill’s wastewater treatment plant and are used to follow water quality using biological indices. Water quality ranged between weak and severe pollution; benthic invertebrates sampled before and after the landfill, show no significant differences in water quality using the IBMWP index. Insect biota from yellow sticky cards and pitfall traps showed over 90 different morphospecies, with Shannon diversity index running from 1.9 to 3.9, strongly affected by the season. An easy-to-perform non-expert demandant method was used to assess vegetation coverage. Two scales of determination are utilized: field observation (1 m resolution), and Google Earth images (that allow for a better than 5 m resolution). Over the eight year period of the study, vegetation coverage over the landfill cells run from a low 83% to 100% on different cells, with an average between 95 to 99% for the entire landfill depending on seasonality. Surrounding area vegetation showed almost 100% coverage during the entire period, with an average density from 2 to 6 species per sq meter and no signs of leachate damaged vegetation.

Keywords: biological indicators, biota monitoring, landfill species diversity, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
198 Study on Changes of Land Use impacting the Process of Urbanization, by Using Landsat Data in African Regions: A Case Study in Kigali, Rwanda

Authors: Delphine Mukaneza, Lin Qiao, Wang Pengxin, Li Yan, Chen Yingyi

Abstract:

Human activities on land use make the land-cover gradually change or transit. In this study, we examined the use of Landsat TM data to detect the land use change of Kigali between 1987 and 2009 using remote sensing techniques and analysis of data using ENVI and ArcGIS, a GIS software. Six different categories of land use were distinguished: bare soil, built up land, wetland, water, vegetation, and others. With remote sensing techniques, we analyzed land use data in 1987, 1999 and 2009, changed areas were found and a dynamic situation of land use in Kigali city was found during the 22 years studied. According to relevant Landsat data, the research focused on land use change in accordance with the role of remote sensing in the process of urbanization. The result of the work has shown the rapid increase of built up land between 1987 and 1999 and a big decrease of vegetation caused by the rebuild of the city after the 1994 genocide, while in the period of 1999 to 2009 there was a reduction in built up land and vegetation, after the authority of Kigali city established, a Master Plan where all constructions which were not in the range of the master Plan were destroyed. Rwanda's capital, Kigali City, through the expansion of the urban area, it is increasing the internal employment rate and attracts business investors and the service sector to improve their economy, which will increase the population growth and provide a better life. The overall planning of the city of Kigali considers the environment, land use, infrastructure, cultural and socio-economic factors, the economic development and population forecast, urban development, and constraints specification. To achieve the above purpose, the Government has set for the overall planning of city Kigali, different stages of the detailed description of the design, strategy and action plan that would guide Kigali planners and members of the public in the future to have more detailed regional plans and practical measures. Thus, land use change is significantly the performance of Kigali active human area, which plays an important role for the country to take certain decisions. Another area to take into account is the natural situation of Kigali city. Agriculture in the region does not occupy a dominant position, and with the population growth and socio-economic development, the construction area will gradually rise and speed up the process of urbanization. Thus, as a developing country, Rwanda's population continues to grow and there is low rate of utilization of land, where urbanization remains low. As mentioned earlier, the 1994 genocide massacres, population growth and urbanization processes, have been the factors driving the dramatic changes in land use. The focus on further research would be on analysis of Rwanda’s natural resources, social and economic factors that could be, the driving force of land use change.

Keywords: land use change, urbanization, Kigali City, Landsat

Procedia PDF Downloads 291
197 Association of Temperature Factors with Seropositive Results against Selected Pathogens in Dairy Cow Herds from Central and Northern Greece

Authors: Marina Sofia, Alexios Giannakopoulos, Antonia Touloudi, Dimitris C Chatzopoulos, Zoi Athanasakopoulou, Vassiliki Spyrou, Charalambos Billinis

Abstract:

Fertility of dairy cattle can be affected by heat stress when the ambient temperature increases above 30°C and the relative humidity ranges from 35% to 50%. The present study was conducted on dairy cattle farms during summer months in Greece and aimed to identify the serological profile against pathogens that could affect fertility and to associate the positive serological results at herd level with temperature factors. A total of 323 serum samples were collected from clinically healthy dairy cows of 8 herds, located in Central and Northern Greece. ELISA tests were performed to detect antibodies against selected pathogens that affect fertility, namely Chlamydophila abortus, Coxiella burnetii, Neospora caninum, Toxoplasma gondii and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis Virus (IBRV). Eleven climatic variables were derived from the WorldClim version 1.4. and ArcGIS V.10.1 software was used for analysis of the spatial information. Five different MaxEnt models were applied to associate the temperature variables with the locations of seropositive Chl. abortus, C. burnetii, N. caninum, T. gondii and IBRV herds (one for each pathogen). The logistic outputs were used for the interpretation of the results. ROC analyses were performed to evaluate the goodness of fit of the models’ predictions. Jackknife tests were used to identify the variables with a substantial contribution to each model. The seropositivity rates of pathogens varied among the 8 herds (0.85-4.76% for Chl. abortus, 4.76-62.71% for N. caninum, 3.8-43.47% for C. burnetii, 4.76-39.28% for T. gondii and 47.83-78.57% for IBRV). The variables of annual temperature range, mean diurnal range and maximum temperature of the warmest month gave a contribution to all five models. The regularized training gains, the training AUCs and the unregularized training gains were estimated. The mean diurnal range gave the highest gain when used in isolation and decreased the gain the most when it was omitted in the two models for seropositive Chl.abortus and IBRV herds. The annual temperature range increased the gain when used alone and decreased the gain the most when it was omitted in the models for seropositive C. burnetii, N. caninum and T. gondii herds. In conclusion, antibodies against Chl. abortus, C. burnetii, N. caninum, T. gondii and IBRV were detected in most herds suggesting circulation of pathogens that could cause infertility. The results of the spatial analyses demonstrated that the annual temperature range, mean diurnal range and maximum temperature of the warmest month could affect positively the possible pathogens’ presence. Acknowledgment: This research has been co‐financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH–CREATE–INNOVATE (project code: T1EDK-01078).

Keywords: dairy cows, seropositivity, spatial analysis, temperature factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 182
196 Green Space and Their Possibilities of Enhancing Urban Life in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

Authors: Ummeh Saika, Toshio Kikuchi

Abstract:

Population growth and urbanization is a global phenomenon. As the rapid progress of technology, many cities in the international community are facing serious problems of urbanization. There is no doubt that the urbanization will proceed to have significant impact on the ecology, economy and society at local, regional, and global levels. The inhabitants of Dhaka city suffer from lack of proper urban facilities. The green spaces are needed for different functional and leisure activities of the urban dwellers. Again growing densification, a number of green space are transferred into open space in the Dhaka city. As a result greenery of the city's decreases gradually. Moreover, the existing green space is frequently threatened by encroachment. The role of green space, both at community and city level, is important to improve the natural environment and social ties for future generations. Therefore, it seems that the green space needs to be more effective for public interaction. The main objective of this study is to address the effectiveness of urban green space (Urban Park) of Dhaka City. Two approaches are selected to fulfill the study. Firstly, analyze the long-term spatial changes of urban green space using GIS and secondly, investigate the relationship of urban park network with physical and social environment. The case study site covers eight urban parks of Dhaka metropolitan area of Bangladesh. Two aspects (Physical and Social) are applied for this study. For physical aspect, satellite images and aerial photos of different years are used to find out the changes of urban parks. And for social aspect, methods are used as questionnaire survey, interview, observation, photographs, sketch and previous information of parks to analyze about the social environment of parks. After calculation of all data by descriptive statistics, result is shown by maps using GIS. According to physical size, parks of Dhaka city are classified into four types: Small, Medium, Large and Extra Large parks. The observed result showed that the physical and social environment of urban parks varies with their size. In small size parks physical environment is moderate by newly tree plantation and area expansion. However, in medium size parks physical environment are poor, example- tree decrease, exposed soil increase. On the other hand, physical environment of large size and extra large size parks are in good condition, because of plenty of vegetation and well management. Again based on social environment, in small size parks people mainly come from surroundings area and mainly used as waiting place. In medium-size parks, people come to attend various occasion from different places. In large size and extra large size parks, people come from every part of the city area for tourism purpose. Urban parks are important source of green space. Its influence both physical and social environment of urban area. Nowadays green space area gradually decreases and transfer into open space. The consequence of this research reveals that changes of urban parks influence both physical and social environment and also impact on urban life.

Keywords: physical environment, social environment, urban life, urban parks

Procedia PDF Downloads 410
195 Introduction of Acute Paediatric Services in Primary Care: Evaluating the Impact on GP Education

Authors: Salman Imran, Chris Healey

Abstract:

Traditionally, medical care of children in England and Wales starts from primary care with a referral to secondary care paediatricians who may not investigate further. Many primary care doctors do not undergo a paediatric rotation/exposure in training. As a result, there are many who have not acquired the necessary skills to manage children hence increasing hospital referral. With the current demand on hospitals in the National Health Service managing more problems in the community is needed. One way of handling this is to set up clinics, meetings and huddles in GP surgeries where professionals involved (general practitioner, paediatrician, health visitor, community nurse, dietician, school nurse) come together and share information which can help improve communication and care. The increased awareness and education that paediatricians can impart in this way will help boost confidence for primary care professionals to be able to be more self-sufficient. This has been tried successfully in other regions e.g., St. Mary’s Hospital in London but is crucial for a more rural setting like ours. The primary aim of this project would be to educate specifically GP’s and generally all other health professionals involved. Additional benefits would be providing care nearer home, increasing patient’s confidence in their local surgery, improving communication and reducing unnecessary patient flow to already stretched hospital resources. Methods: This was done as a plan do study act cycle (PDSA). Three clinics were delivered in different practices over six months where feedback from staff and patients was collected. Designated time for teaching/discussion was used which involved some cases from the actual clinics. Both new and follow up patients were included. Two clinics were conducted by a paediatrician and nurse whilst the 3rd involved paediatrician and local doctor. The distance from hospital to clinics varied from two miles to 22 miles approximately. All equipment used was provided by primary care. Results: A total of 30 patients were seen. All patients found the location convenient as it was nearer than the hospital. 70-90% clearly understood the reason for a change in venue. 95% agreed to the importance of their local doctor being involved in their care. 20% needed to be seen in the hospital for further investigations. Patients felt this to be a more personalised, in-depth, friendly and polite experience. Local physicians felt this to be a more relaxed, familiar and local experience for their patients and they managed to get immediate feedback regarding their own clinical management. 90% felt they gained important learning from the discussion time and the paediatrician also learned about their understanding and gaps in knowledge/focus areas. 80% felt this time was valuable for targeted learning. Equipment, information technology, and office space could be improved for the smooth running of any future clinics. Conclusion: The acute paediatric outpatient clinic can be successfully established in primary care facilities. Careful patient selection and adequate facilities are important. We have demonstrated a further step in the reduction of patient flow to hospitals and upskilling primary care health professionals. This service is expected to become more efficient with experience.

Keywords: clinics, education, paediatricians, primary care

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
194 Kinematic of Thrusts and Tectonic Vergence in the Paleogene Orogen of Eastern Iran, Sechangi Area

Authors: Shahriyar Keshtgar, Mahmoud Reza Heyhat, Sasan Bagheri, Ebrahim Gholami, Seyed Naser Raiisosadat

Abstract:

The eastern Iranian range is a Z-shaped sigmoidal outcrop appearing with a NS-trending general strike on the satellite images, has already been known as the Sistan suture zone, recently identified as the product of an orogenic event introduced either by the Paleogene or Sistan orogen names. The flysch sedimentary basin of eastern Iran was filled by a huge volume of fine-grained Eocene turbiditic sediments, smaller amounts of pelagic deposits and Cretaceous ophiolitic slices, which are entirely remnants of older accretionary prisms appeared in a fold-thrust belt developed onto a subduction zone under the Lut/Afghan block, portions of the Cimmerian superterrane. In these ranges, there are Triassic sedimentary and carbonate sequences (equivalent to Nayband and Shotori Formations) along with scattered outcrops of Permian limestones (equivalent to Jamal limestone) and greenschist-facies metamorphic rocks, probably belonging to the basement of the Lut block, which have tectonic contacts with younger rocks. Moreover, the younger Eocene detrital-volcanic rocks were also thrusted onto the Cretaceous or younger turbiditic deposits. The first generation folds (parallel folds) and thrusts with slaty cleavage appeared parallel to the NE edge of the Lut block. Structural analysis shows that the most vergence of thrusts is toward the southeast so that the Permo-Triassic units in Lut have been thrusted on the younger rocks, including older (probably Jurassic) granites. Additional structural studies show that the regional transport direction in this deformation event is from northwest to the southeast where, from the outside to the inside of the orogen in the Sechengi area. Younger thrusts of the second deformation event were either directly formed as a result of the second deformation event, or they were older thrusts that reactivated and folded so that often, two sets or more slickenlines can be recognized on the thrust planes. The recent thrusts have been redistributed in directions nearly perpendicular to the edge of the Lut block and parallel to the axial surfaces of the northwest second generation large-scale folds (radial folds). Some of these younger thrusts follow the out-of-the-syncline thrust system. The both axial planes of these folds and associated penetrative shear cleavage extended towards northwest appeared with both northeast and southwest dips parallel to the younger thrusts. The large-scale buckling with the layer-parallel stress field has created this deformation event. Such consecutive deformation events perpendicular to each other cannot be basically explained by the simple linear orogen models presented for eastern Iran so far and are more consistent with the oroclinal buckling model.

Keywords: thrust, tectonic vergence, orocline buckling, sechangi, eastern iranian ranges

Procedia PDF Downloads 59
193 An Integrated Approach to Child Care Earthquake Preparedness through “Telemachus” Project

Authors: A. Kourou, S. Kyriakopoulos, N. Anyfanti

Abstract:

A lot of children under the age of five spend their daytime hours away from their home, in a kindergarten. Caring for children is a serious subject, and their safety in case of earthquake is the first priority. Being aware of earthquakes helps to prioritize the needs and take the appropriate actions to limit the effects. Earthquakes occurring anywhere at any time require emergency planning. Earthquake planning is a cooperative effort and childcare providers have unique roles and responsibilities. Greece has high seismicity and Ionian Islands Region has the highest seismic activity of the country. The last five years Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (EPPO), which is a national organization, has analyzed the needs and requirements of kindergartens on earthquake protection issues. In this framework it has been noticed that although the State requires child care centers to hold drills, the standards for emergency preparedness in these centers are varied, and a lot of them had not written plans for emergencies. For these reasons, EPPO supports the development of emergency planning guidance and familiarizes the day care centers’ staff being prepared for earthquakes. Furthermore, the Handbook on Day Care Earthquake Planning that has been developed by EPPO helps the providers to understand that emergency planning is essential to risk reduction. Preparedness and training should be ongoing processes, thus EPPO implements every year dozens of specific seminars on children’s disaster related needs. This research presents the results of a survey that detects the level of earthquake preparedness of kindergartens in all over the country and Ionian Islands too. A closed-form questionnaire of 20 main questions was developed for the survey in order to detect the aspects of participants concerning the earthquake preparedness actions at individual, family and day care environment level. 2668 questionnaires were gathered from March 2014 to May 2019, and analyzed by EPPO’s Department of Education. Moreover, this paper presents the EPPO’s educational activities targeted to the Ionian Islands Region that implemented in the framework of “Telemachus” Project. To provide safe environment for children to learn, and staff to work is the foremost goal of any State, community and kindergarten. This project is funded under the Priority Axis "Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development" of Operational Plan "Ionian Islands 2014-2020". It is increasingly accepted that emergency preparedness should be thought of as an ongoing process rather than a one-time activity. Creating an earthquake safe daycare environment that facilitates learning is a challenging task. Training, drills, and update of emergency plan should take place throughout the year at kindergartens to identify any gaps and to ensure the emergency procedures. EPPO will continue to work closely with regional and local authorities to actively address the needs of children and kindergartens before, during and after earthquakes.

Keywords: child care centers, education on earthquake, emergency planning, kindergartens, Ionian Islands Region of Greece

Procedia PDF Downloads 102
192 Valuing Social Sustainability in Agriculture: An Approach Based on Social Outputs’ Shadow Prices

Authors: Amer Ait Sidhoum

Abstract:

Interest in sustainability has gained ground among practitioners, academics and policy-makers due to growing stakeholders’ awareness of environmental and social concerns. This is particularly true for agriculture. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the quantification of social sustainability and the contribution of social issues to the agricultural production efficiency. This research's main objective is to propose a method for evaluating prices of social outputs, more precisely shadow prices, by allowing for the stochastic nature of agricultural production that is to say for production uncertainty. In this article, the assessment of social outputs’ shadow prices is conducted within the methodological framework of nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). An output-oriented directional distance function (DDF) is implemented to represent the technology of a sample of Catalan arable crop farms and derive the efficiency scores the overall production technology of our sample is assumed to be the intersection of two different sub-technologies. The first sub-technology models the production of random desirable agricultural outputs, while the second sub-technology reflects the social outcomes from agricultural activities. Once a nonparametric production technology has been represented, the DDF primal approach can be used for efficiency measurement, while shadow prices are drawn from the dual representation of the DDF. Computing shadow prices is a method to assign an economic value to non-marketed social outcomes. Our research uses cross sectional, farm-level data collected in 2015 from a sample of 180 Catalan arable crop farms specialized in the production of cereals, oilseeds and protein (COP) crops. Our results suggest that our sample farms show high performance scores, from 85% for the bad state of nature to 88% for the normal and ideal crop growing conditions. This suggests that farm performance is increasing with an improvement in crop growth conditions. Results also show that average shadow prices of desirable state-contingent output and social outcomes for efficient and inefficient farms are positive, suggesting that the production of desirable marketable outputs and of non-marketable outputs makes a positive contribution to the farm production efficiency. Results also indicate that social outputs’ shadow prices are contingent upon the growing conditions. The shadow prices follow an upward trend as crop-growing conditions improve. This finding suggests that these efficient farms prefer to allocate more resources in the production of desirable outputs than of social outcomes. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to compute shadow prices of social outcomes while accounting for the stochastic nature of the production technology. Our findings suggest that the decision-making process of the efficient farms in dealing with social issues are stochastic and strongly dependent on the growth conditions. This implies that policy-makers should adjust their instruments according to the stochastic environmental conditions. An optimal redistribution of rural development support, by increasing the public payment with the improvement in crop growth conditions, would likely enhance the effectiveness of public policies.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, shadow prices, social sustainability, sustainable farming

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
191 Gender, Agency, and Health: An Exploratory Study Using an Ethnographic Material for Illustrative Reasons

Authors: S. Gustafsson

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to explore the connection between gender, agency, and health on personal and social levels over time. The use of gender as an analytical tool for health research has been shown to be useful to explore thoughts and ideas that are taken for granted, which have relevance for health. The paper highlights the following three issues. There are multiple forms of femininity and masculinity. Agency and social structure are closely related and referred to in this paper as 'gender agency'. Gender is illuminated as a product of history but also treated as a social factor and a producer of history. As a prominent social factor in the process of shaping living conditions, gender is highlighted as being significant for understanding health. To make health explicit as a dynamic and complex concept and not merely the opposite of disease requires a broader alliance with feminist theory and a post-Bourdieusian framework. A personal story, included with other ethnographic material about women’s networking in rural Sweden, is used as an empirical illustration. Ethnographic material was chosen for its ability to illustrate historical, local, and cultural ways of doing gendered and capitalized health. New concepts characterize ethnography, exemplified in this study by 'processes of transformation'. The semi-structured interviews followed an interview guide drafted with reference to the background theory of gender. The interviews lasted about an hour and were recorded and transcribed verbatim. The transcribed interviews and the author’s field notes formed the basis for the writing up of this paper. Initially, the participants' interests in weaving, sewing, and various handicrafts became obvious foci for networking activities and seemed at first to shape compliance with patriarchy, which generally does the opposite of promoting health. However, a significant event disrupted the stability of this phenomenon. What was permissible for the women began to crack and new spaces opened up. By exploiting these new spaces, the participants found opportunities to try out alternatives to emphasized femininity. Over time, they began combining feminized activities with degrees of masculinity, as leadership became part of the activities. In response to this, masculine enactment was gradually transformed and became increasingly gender neutral. As the tasks became more gender neutral the activities assumed a more formal character and the women stretched the limits of their capacity by enacting gender agency, a process the participants referred to as 'personal growth' and described as health promotion. What was described in terms of 'personal growth' can be interpreted as the effects of a raised status. Participation in women’s networking strengthened the participants’ structural position. More specifically, it was the gender-neutral position that was rewarded. To clarify the connection between gender, agency, and health on personal and social levels over time the concept processes of transformation is used. This concept is suggested as a dynamic equivalent to habitus. Health is thus seen as resulting from situational access to social recognition, prestige, capital assets and not least, meanings of gender.

Keywords: a cross-gender bodily hexis, gender agency, gender as analytical tool, processes of transformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
190 Voices of the Students From a Fully Inclusive Classroom

Authors: Ashwini Tiwari

Abstract:

Introduction: Inclusive education for all is a multifaceted approach that requires system thinking and the promotion of a "Culture of Inclusion." Such can only be achieved through the collaboration of multiple stakeholders at the community, regional, state, national, and international levels. Researchers have found effective practices used in inclusive general classrooms are beneficial to all students, including students with disabilities, those who experience challenges academically and socially, and students without disabilities as well. However, to date, no statistically significant effects on the academic performance of students without disabilities in the presence of students with disabilities have been revealed. Therefore, proponents against inclusive education practices, based solely on their beliefs regarding the detrimental effects of students without disabilities, appears to have unfounded perceptions. This qualitative case study examines students' perspectives and beliefs about inclusive education in a middle school in South Texas. More specifically, this study examined students understanding of how inclusive education practices intersect with the classroom community. The data was collected from the students attending fully inclusive classrooms through interviews and focus groups. The findings suggest that peer integration and friendships built during classes are an essential part of schooling for both disabled and non-disabled students. Research Methodology: This qualitative case study used observations and focus group interviews with 12 middle school students attending an inclusive classroom at a public school located in South Texas. The participant of this study includes eight females and five males. All the study participants attend a fully inclusive middle school with special needs peers. Five of the students had disabilities. The focus groups and interviews were conducted during for entire academic year, with an average of one focus group and observation each month. The data were analyzed using the constant comparative method. The data from the focus group and observation were continuously compared for emerging codes during the data collection process. Codes were further refined and merged. Themes emerged as a result of the interpretation at the end of the data analysis process. Findings and discussion: This study was conducted to examine disabled and non-disabled students' perspectives on the inclusion of disabled students. The study revealed that non-disabled students generally have positive attitudes toward their disabled peers. The students in the study did not perceive inclusion as a special provision; rather, they perceived inclusion as a way of instructional practice. Most of the participants in the study spoke about the multiple benefits of inclusion. They emphasized that peer integration and friendships built during classes are an essential part of their schooling. Students believed that it was part of their responsibility to assist their peers in the ways possible. This finding is in line with the literature that the personality of children with disabilities is not determined by their disability but rather by their social environment and its interaction with the child. Interactions with peers are one of the most important socio-cultural conditions for the development of children with disabilities.

Keywords: inclusion, special education, k-12 education, student voices

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
189 The Effect of Intimate Partner Violence Prevention Program on Knowledge and Attitude of Victims

Authors: Marzieh Nojomi, Azadeh Mottaghi, Arghavan Haj-Sheykholeslami, Narjes Khalili, Arash Tehrani Banihashemi

Abstract:

Background and objectives: Domestic violence is a global problem with severe consequences throughout the life of the victims. Iran’s Ministry of Health has launched an intimate partner violence (IPV) prevention program, integrated in the primary health care services since 2016. The present study is a part of this national program’s evaluation. In this section, we aimed to examine spousal abuse victims’ knowledge and attitude towards domestic violence before and after receivingthese services. Methods: To assess the knowledge and attitudes of victims, a questionnaire designed by Ahmadzadand colleagues in 2013 was used. This questionnaire includes 15 questions regarding knowledge in the fields of definition, epidemiology, and effects on children, outcomes, and prevention of domestic violence. To assess the attitudes, this questionnaire has 10 questions regarding the attitudes toward the causes, effects, and legal or protective support services of domestic violence. To assess the satisfaction and the effect of the program on prevention or reduction of spousal violence episodes, two more questions were also added. Since domestic violence prevalence differs in different parts of the country, we chose nine areas with the highest, the lowest, and moderate prevalence of IPVfor the study. The link to final electronic version of the questionnaire was sent to the randomly selected public rural or urban health centers in the nine chosen areas. Since the study had to be completed in one month, we used newly identified victims as pre-intervention group and people who had at least received one related service from the program (like psychiatric consultation, education about safety measures, supporting organizations and etc.) during the previous year, as our post- intervention group. Results: A hundred and ninety-two newly identified IPV victims and 267 victims who had at least received one related program service during the previous year entered the study. All of the victims were female. Basic characteristics of the two groups, including age, education, occupation, addiction, spouses’ age, spouses’ addiction, duration of the current marriage, and number of children, were not statistically different. In knowledge questions, post- intervention group had statistically better scores in the fields of domestic violence outcomes and its effects on children; however, in the remaining areas, the scores of both groups were similar. The only significant difference in the attitude across the two groups was in the field of legal or protective support services. From the 267 women who had ever received a service from the program, 91.8% were satisfied with the services, and 74% reported a decrease in the number of violent episodes. Conclusion: National IPV prevention program integrated in the primary health care services in Iran is effective in improving the knowledge of victims about domestic violence outcomes and its effects on children. Improving the attitude and knowledge of domestic violence victims about its causes and preventive measures needs more effective interventions. This program can reduce the number of IPV episodes between the spouses, and satisfaction among the service users is high.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, assessment, health services, efficacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
188 Informalization and Feminization of Labour Force in the Context of Globalization of Production: Case Study of Women Migrant Workers in Kinfra Apparel Park of India

Authors: Manasi Mahanty

Abstract:

In the current phase of globalization, the mobility of capital facilitates outsourcing and subcontracting of production processes to the developing economies for cheap and flexible labour force. In such process, the globalization of production networks operates at multi-locational points within the nation. Under the new quota regime in the globalization period, the Indian manufacturing exporters came under the influence of corporate buyers and large retailers from the importing countries. As part of such process, the garment manufacturing sector is expected to create huge employment opportunities and to expand the export market in the country. While following these, expectations, the apparel and garment industries mostly target to hire female migrant workers with a purpose of establishing more flexible industrial relations through the casual nature of employment contract. It leads to an increasing women’s participation in the labour market as well as the rise in precarious forms of female paid employment. In the context, the main objective of the paper is to understand the wider dynamics of globalization of production and its link with informalization, feminization of labour force and internal migration process of the country. For this purpose, the study examines the changing labour relations in the KINFRA Apparel Park at Kerala’s Special Economic Zone which operates under the scheme ‘Apparel Parks for Export’ (APE) of the Government of India. The present study was based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis. In the first, the secondary sources of data were collected from the source location (SEAM centre) and destination (KINFRA Park). The official figures and data were discussed and analyzed in order to find out the various dimensions of labour relations under globalization of production. In the second, the primary survey was conducted to make a comparative analysis of local and migrant female workers. The study is executed by taking 100 workers in total. The local workers comprised of 53% of the sample whereas the outside state workers were 47%. Even personal interviews with management staff, and workers were also made for collecting the information regarding the organisational structure, nature, and mode of recruitment, work environment, etc. The study shows the enormous presence of rural women migrant workers in KINFRA Apparel Park. A Public Private Partnership (PPP) arranged migration system is found as Skills for Employment in Apparel Manufacturing (SEAM) from where young women and girls are being sent to work in garment factories of Kerala’s KINFRA International Apparel Park under the guise of an apprenticeship based recruitment. The study concludes that such arrangements try to avoid standard employment relationships and strengthen informalization, casualization and contractualization of work. In this process, the recruitment of women migrant workers is to be considered as best option for the employers of private industries which could be more easily hired and fired.

Keywords: female migration, globalization, informalization, KINFRA apparel park

Procedia PDF Downloads 320
187 Monitoring of Educational Achievements of Kazakhstani 4th and 9th Graders

Authors: Madina Tynybayeva, Sanya Zhumazhanova, Saltanat Kozhakhmetova, Merey Mussabayeva

Abstract:

One of the leading indicators of the education quality is the level of students’ educational achievements. The processes of modernization of Kazakhstani education system have predetermined the need to improve the national system by assessing the quality of education. The results of assessment greatly contribute to addressing questions about the current state of the educational system in the country. The monitoring of students’ educational achievements (MEAS) is the systematic measurement of the quality of education for compliance with the state obligatory standard of Kazakhstan. This systematic measurement is independent of educational organizations and approved by the order of the Minister of Education and Scienceof Kazakhstan. The MEAS was conducted in the regions of Kazakhstanfor the first time in 2022 by the National Testing Centre. The measurement does not have legal consequences either for students or for educational organizations. Students’ achievements were measured in three subject areas: reading, mathematics and science literacy. MEAS was held for the first time in April this year, 105 thousand students from 1436 schools of Kazakhstan took part in the testing. The monitoring was accompanied by a survey of students, teachers, and school leaders. The goal is to identify which contextual factors affect learning outcomes. The testing was carried out in a computer format. The test tasks of MEAS are ranked according to the three levels of difficulty: basic, medium, and high. Fourth graders are asked to complete 30 closed-type tasks. The average score of the results is 21 points out of 30, which means 70% of tasks were successfully completed. The total number of test tasks for 9th grade students – 75 questions. The results of ninth graders are comparatively lower, the success rate of completing tasks is 63%. MEAS participants did not reveal a statistically significant gap in results in terms of the language of instruction, territorial status, and type of school. The trend of reducing the gap in these indicators is also noted in the framework of recent international studies conducted across the country, in particular PISA for schools in Kazakhstan. However, there is a regional gap in MOES performance. The difference in the values of the indicators of the highest and lowest scores of the regions was 11% of the success of completing tasks in the 4th grade, 14% in the 9thgrade. The results of the 4th grade students in reading, mathematics, and science literacy are: 71.5%, 70%, and 66.9%, respectively. The results of ninth-graders in reading, mathematics, and science literacy are 69.6%, 54%, and 60.8%, respectively. From the surveys, it was revealed that the educational achievements of students are considerably influenced by such factors as the subject competences of teachers, as well as the school climate and motivation of students. Thus, the results of MEAS indicate the need for an integrated approach to improving the quality of education. In particular, the combination of improving the content of curricula and textbooks, internal and external assessment of the educational achievements of students, educational programs of pedagogical specialties, and advanced training courses is required.

Keywords: assessment, secondary school, monitoring, functional literacy, kazakhstan

Procedia PDF Downloads 90
186 Academic Knowledge Transfer Units in the Western Balkans: Building Service Capacity and Shaping the Business Model

Authors: Andrea Bikfalvi, Josep Llach, Ferran Lazaro, Bojan Jovanovski

Abstract:

Due to the continuous need to foster university-business cooperation in both developed and developing countries, some higher education institutions face the challenge of designing, piloting, operating, and consolidating knowledge and technology transfer units. University-business cooperation has different maturity stages worldwide, with some higher education institutions excelling in these practices, but with lots of others that could be qualified as intermediate, or even some situated at the very beginning of their knowledge transfer adventure. These latter face the imminent necessity to formally create the technology transfer unit and to draw its roadmap. The complexity of this operation is due to various aspects that need to align and coordinate, including a major change in mission, vision, structure, priorities, and operations. Qualitative in approach, this study presents 5 case studies, consisting of higher education institutions located in the Western Balkans – 2 in Albania, 2 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1 in Montenegro- fully immersed in the entrepreneurial journey of creating their knowledge and technology transfer unit. The empirical evidence is developed in a pan-European project, illustratively called KnowHub (reconnecting universities and enterprises to unleash regional innovation and entrepreneurial activity), which is being implemented in three countries and has resulted in at least 15 pilot cooperation agreements between academia and business. Based on a peer-mentoring approach including more experimented and more mature technology transfer models of European partners located in Spain, Finland, and Austria, a series of initial lessons learned are already available. The findings show that each unit developed its tailor-made approach to engage with internal and external stakeholders, offer value to the academic staff, students, as well as business partners. The latest technology underpinning KnowHub services and institutional commitment are found to be key success factors. Although specific strategies and plans differ, they are based on a general strategy jointly developed and based on common tools and methods of strategic planning and business modelling. The main output consists of providing good practice for designing, piloting, and initial operations of units aiming to fully valorise knowledge and expertise available in academia. Policymakers can also find valuable hints on key aspects considered vital for initial operations. The value of this contribution is its focus on the intersection of three perspectives (service orientation, organisational innovation, business model) since previous research has only relied on a single topic or dual approaches, most frequently in the business context and less frequently in higher education.

Keywords: business model, capacity building, entrepreneurial education, knowledge transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
185 Reconstruction of Age-Related Generations of Siberian Larch to Quantify the Climatogenic Dynamics of Woody Vegetation Close the Upper Limit of Its Growth

Authors: A. P. Mikhailovich, V. V. Fomin, E. M. Agapitov, V. E. Rogachev, E. A. Kostousova, E. S. Perekhodova

Abstract:

Woody vegetation among the upper limit of its habitat is a sensitive indicator of biota reaction to regional climate changes. Quantitative assessment of temporal and spatial changes in the distribution of trees and plant biocenoses calls for the development of new modeling approaches based upon selected data from measurements on the ground level and ultra-resolution aerial photography. Statistical models were developed for the study area located in the Polar Urals. These models allow obtaining probabilistic estimates for placing Siberian Larch trees into one of the three age intervals, namely 1-10, 11-40 and over 40 years, based on the Weilbull distribution of the maximum horizontal crown projection. Authors developed the distribution map for larch trees with crown diameters exceeding twenty centimeters by deciphering aerial photographs made by a UAV from an altitude equal to fifty meters. The total number of larches was equal to 88608, forming the following distribution row across the abovementioned intervals: 16980, 51740, and 19889 trees. The results demonstrate that two processes can be observed in the course of recent decades: first is the intensive forestation of previously barren or lightly wooded fragments of the study area located within the patches of wood, woodlands, and sparse stand, and second, expansion into mountain tundra. The current expansion of the Siberian Larch in the region replaced the depopulation process that occurred in the course of the Little Ice Age from the late 13ᵗʰ to the end of the 20ᵗʰ century. Using data from field measurements of Siberian larch specimen biometric parameters (including height, diameter at root collar and at 1.3 meters, and maximum projection of the crown in two orthogonal directions) and data on tree ages obtained at nine circular test sites, authors developed a model for artificial neural network including two layers with three and two neurons, respectively. The model allows quantitative assessment of a specimen's age based on height and maximum crone projection values. Tree height and crown diameters can be quantitatively assessed using data from aerial photographs and lidar scans. The resulting model can be used to assess the age of all Siberian larch trees. The proposed approach, after validation, can be applied to assessing the age of other tree species growing near the upper tree boundaries in other mountainous regions. This research was collaboratively funded by the Russian Ministry for Science and Education (project No. FEUG-2023-0002) and Russian Science Foundation (project No. 24-24-00235) in the field of data modeling on the basis of artificial neural network.

Keywords: treeline, dynamic, climate, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 42
184 Quantification of the Non-Registered Electrical and Electronic Equipment for Domestic Consumption and Enhancing E-Waste Estimation: A Case Study on TVs in Vietnam

Authors: Ha Phuong Tran, Feng Wang, Jo Dewulf, Hai Trung Huynh, Thomas Schaubroeck

Abstract:

The fast increase and complex components have made waste of electrical and electronic equipment (or e-waste) one of the most problematic waste streams worldwide. Precise information on its size on national, regional and global level has therefore been highlighted as prerequisite to obtain a proper management system. However, this is a very challenging task, especially in developing countries where both formal e-waste management system and necessary statistical data for e-waste estimation, i.e. data on the production, sale and trade of electrical and electronic equipment (EEE), are often lacking. Moreover, there is an inflow of non-registered electronic and electric equipment, which ‘invisibly’ enters the EEE domestic market and then is used for domestic consumption. The non-registration/invisibility and (in most of the case) illicit nature of this flow make it difficult or even impossible to be captured in any statistical system. The e-waste generated from it is thus often uncounted in current e-waste estimation based on statistical market data. Therefore, this study focuses on enhancing e-waste estimation in developing countries and proposing a calculation pathway to quantify the magnitude of the non-registered EEE inflow. An advanced Input-Out Analysis model (i.e. the Sale–Stock–Lifespan model) has been integrated in the calculation procedure. In general, Sale-Stock-Lifespan model assists to improve the quality of input data for modeling (i.e. perform data consolidation to create more accurate lifespan profile, model dynamic lifespan to take into account its changes over time), via which the quality of e-waste estimation can be improved. To demonstrate the above objectives, a case study on televisions (TVs) in Vietnam has been employed. The results show that the amount of waste TVs in Vietnam has increased four times since 2000 till now. This upward trend is expected to continue in the future. In 2035, a total of 9.51 million TVs are predicted to be discarded. Moreover, estimation of non-registered TV inflow shows that it might on average contribute about 15% to the total TVs sold on the Vietnamese market during the whole period of 2002 to 2013. To tackle potential uncertainties associated with estimation models and input data, sensitivity analysis has been applied. The results show that both estimations of waste and non-registered inflow depend on two parameters i.e. number of TVs used in household and the lifespan. Particularly, with a 1% increase in the TV in-use rate, the average market share of non-register inflow in the period 2002-2013 increases 0.95%. However, it decreases from 27% to 15% when the constant unadjusted lifespan is replaced by the dynamic adjusted lifespan. The effect of these two parameters on the amount of waste TV generation for each year is more complex and non-linear over time. To conclude, despite of remaining uncertainty, this study is the first attempt to apply the Sale-Stock-Lifespan model to improve the e-waste estimation in developing countries and to quantify the non-registered EEE inflow to domestic consumption. It therefore can be further improved in future with more knowledge and data.

Keywords: e-waste, non-registered electrical and electronic equipment, TVs, Vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 233
183 Leadership Values in Succession Processes

Authors: Peter Heimerl, Alexander Plaikner, Mike Peters

Abstract:

Background and Significance of the Study: Family-run businesses are a decisive economic factor in the Alpine tourism and leisure industry. Within the next years, it is expected that a large number of family-run small and medium-sized businesses will transfer ownership due to demographic developments. Four stages of succession processes can be identified by several empirical studies: (1) the preparation phase, (2) the succession planning phase, (3) the development of the succession concept, (4) and the implementation of the business transfer. Family business research underlines the importance of individual's and family’s values: Especially leadership values address mainly the first phase, which strongly determines the following stages. Aim of the Study: The study aims at answering the following research question: Which leadership values are dominating during succession processes in family-run businesses in Austrian Alpine tourism industry? Methodology: Twenty-two problem-centred individual interviews with 11 transferors and their 11 transferees were conducted. Data analysis was carried out using the software program MAXQDA following an inductive approach to data coding. Major Findings: Data analysis shows that nine values particularly influence succession processes, especially during the vulnerable preparation phase. Participation is the most-dominant value (162 references). It covers a style of cooperation, communication, and controlling. Discipline (142) is especially prevailing from the transferor's perspective. It addresses entrepreneurial honesty and customer orientation. Development (138) is seen as an important value, but it can be distinguished between transferors and transferees. These are mainly focused on strategic positioning and new technologies. Trust (105) is interpreted as a basic prerequisite to run the family firm smoothly. Interviewees underline the importance to be able to take a break from family-business management; however, this is only possible when openness and honesty constitute trust within the family firm. Loyalty (102): Almost all interviewees perceive that they can influence the loyalty of the employees through their own role models. A good work-life balance (90) is very important to most of the transferors, especially for their employees. Despite the communicated importance of a good work-life-balance, but however, mostly the commitment to the company is prioritised. Considerations of regionality (82) and regional responsibility are also frequently raised. Appreciation (75) is of great importance to both the handover and the takeover generation -as appreciation towards the employees in the company and especially in connection with the family. Familiarity (66) and the blurring of the boundaries between private and professional life are very common, especially in family businesses. Familial contact and open communication with employees which is mentioned in almost all handing over. Conclusions: In the preparation phase of succession, successors and incumbents have to consider and discuss their leadership and family values of family-business management. Quite often, assistance is needed to commonly and openly discuss these values in the early stages of succession processes. A large majority of handovers fail because of these values. Implications can be drawn to support family businesses, e.g., consulting initiatives at chambers of commerce and business consultancies must address this problem.

Keywords: leadership values, family business, succession processes, succession phases

Procedia PDF Downloads 77
182 Mesenchymal Stem Cells on Fibrin Assemblies with Growth Factors

Authors: Elena Filova, Ondrej Kaplan, Marie Markova, Helena Dragounova, Roman Matejka, Eduard Brynda, Lucie Bacakova

Abstract:

Decellularized vessels have been evaluated as small-diameter vascular prostheses. Reseeding autologous cells onto decellularized tissue prior implantation should prolong prostheses function and make them living tissues. Suitable cell types for reseeding are both endothelial cells and bone marrow-derived stem cells, with a capacity for differentiation into smooth muscle cells upon mechanical loading. Endothelial cells assure antithrombogenicity of the vessels and MSCs produce growth factors and, after their differentiation into smooth muscle cells, they are contractile and produce extracellular matrix proteins as well. Fibrin is a natural scaffold, which allows direct cell adhesion based on integrin receptors. It can be prepared autologous. Fibrin can be modified with bound growth factors, such as basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF-2) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). These modifications in turn make the scaffold more attractive for cells ingrowth into the biological scaffold. The aim of the study was to prepare thin surface-attached fibrin assemblies with bound FGF-2 and VEGF, and to evaluate growth and differentiation of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells on the fibrin (Fb) assemblies. Following thin surface-attached fibrin assemblies were prepared: Fb, Fb+VEGF, Fb+FGF2, Fb+heparin, Fb+heparin+VEGF, Fb+heparin+FGF2, Fb+heparin+FGF2+VEGF. Cell culture poly-styrene and glass coverslips were used as controls. Human MSCs (passage 3) were seeded at the density of 8800 cells/1.5 mL alpha-MEM medium with 2.5% FS and 200 U/mL aprotinin per well of a 24-well cell culture. The cells have been cultured on the samples for 6 days. Cell densities on day 1, 3, and 6 were analyzed after staining with LIVE/DEAD cytotoxicity/viability assay kit. The differentiation of MSCs is being analyzed using qPCR. On day 1, the highest density of MSCs was observed on Fb+VEGF and Fb+FGF2. On days 3 and 6, there were similar densities on all samples. On day 1, cell morphology was polygonal and spread on all sample. On day 3 and 6, MSCs growing on Fb assemblies with FGF2 became apparently elongated. The evaluation of expression of genes for von Willebrand factor and CD31 (endothelial cells), for alpha-actin (smooth muscle cells), and for alkaline phosphatase (osteoblasts) is in progress. We prepared fibrin assemblies with bound VEGF and FGF-2 that supported attachment and growth of mesenchymal stem cells. The layers are promising for improving the ingrowth of MSCs into the biological scaffold. Supported by the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic TA04011345, and Ministry of Health NT11270-4/2010, and BIOCEV – Biotechnology and Biomedicine Centre of the Academy of Sciences and Charles University” project (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0109), funded by the European Regional Development Fund for their financial supports.

Keywords: fibrin assemblies, FGF-2, mesenchymal stem cells, VEGF

Procedia PDF Downloads 311
181 Seafloor and Sea Surface Modelling in the East Coast Region of North America

Authors: Magdalena Idzikowska, Katarzyna Pająk, Kamil Kowalczyk

Abstract:

Seafloor topography is a fundamental issue in geological, geophysical, and oceanographic studies. Single-beam or multibeam sonars attached to the hulls of ships are used to emit a hydroacoustic signal from transducers and reproduce the topography of the seabed. This solution provides relevant accuracy and spatial resolution. Bathymetric data from ships surveys provides National Centers for Environmental Information – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Unfortunately, most of the seabed is still unidentified, as there are still many gaps to be explored between ship survey tracks. Moreover, such measurements are very expensive and time-consuming. The solution is raster bathymetric models shared by The General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans. The offered products are a compilation of different sets of data - raw or processed. Indirect data for the development of bathymetric models are also measurements of gravity anomalies. Some forms of seafloor relief (e.g. seamounts) increase the force of the Earth's pull, leading to changes in the sea surface. Based on satellite altimetry data, Sea Surface Height and marine gravity anomalies can be estimated, and based on the anomalies, it’s possible to infer the structure of the seabed. The main goal of the work is to create regional bathymetric models and models of the sea surface in the area of the east coast of North America – a region of seamounts and undulating seafloor. The research includes an analysis of the methods and techniques used, an evaluation of the interpolation algorithms used, model thickening, and the creation of grid models. Obtained data are raster bathymetric models in NetCDF format, survey data from multibeam soundings in MB-System format, and satellite altimetry data from Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service. The methodology includes data extraction, processing, mapping, and spatial analysis. Visualization of the obtained results was carried out with Geographic Information System tools. The result is an extension of the state of the knowledge of the quality and usefulness of the data used for seabed and sea surface modeling and knowledge of the accuracy of the generated models. Sea level is averaged over time and space (excluding waves, tides, etc.). Its changes, along with knowledge of the topography of the ocean floor - inform us indirectly about the volume of the entire water ocean. The true shape of the ocean surface is further varied by such phenomena as tides, differences in atmospheric pressure, wind systems, thermal expansion of water, or phases of ocean circulation. Depending on the location of the point, the higher the depth, the lower the trend of sea level change. Studies show that combining data sets, from different sources, with different accuracies can affect the quality of sea surface and seafloor topography models.

Keywords: seafloor, sea surface height, bathymetry, satellite altimetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 61
180 Traditional Rainwater Harvesting Systems: A Sustainable Solution for Non-Urban Populations in the Mediterranean

Authors: S. Fares, K. Mellakh, A. Hmouri

Abstract:

The StorMer project aims to set up a network of researchers to study traditional hydraulic rainwater harvesting systems in the Mediterranean basin, a region suffering from the major impacts of climate change and limited natural water resources. The arid and semi-arid Mediterranean basin has a long history of pioneering water management practices. The region has developed various ancient traditional water management systems, such as cisterns and qanats, to sustainably manage water resources under historical conditions of scarcity. Therefore, the StorMer project brings together Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Jordan and Morocco to explore traditional rainwater harvesting practices and systems in the Mediterranean region and to develop accurate modeling to simulate the performance and sustainability of these technologies under present-day climatic conditions. The ultimate goal of this project was to resuscitate and valorize these practices in the context of contemporary challenges. This project was intended to establish a Mediterranean network to serve as a basis for a more ambitious project. The ultimate objective was to analyze traditional hydraulic systems and create a prototype hydraulic ecosystem using a coupled environmental approach and traditional and ancient know-how, with the aim of reinterpreting them in the light of current techniques. The combination of ‘traditional’ and ‘modern knowledge/techniques’ is expected to lead to proposals for innovative hydraulic systems. The pandemic initially slowed our progress, but in the end it forced us to carry out the fieldwork in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, and so restart the project. With the participation of colleagues from chronologically distant fields (archaeology, sociology), we are now prepared to share our observations and propose the next steps. This interdisciplinary approach should give us a global vision of the project's objectives and challenges. A diachronic approach is needed to tackle the question of the long-term adaptation of societies in a Mediterranean context that has experienced several periods of water stress. The next stage of the StorMer project is the implementation of pilots in non-urbanized regions. These pilots will test the implementation of traditional systems and will be maintained and evaluated in terms of effectiveness, cost and acceptance. Based on these experiences, larger projects will be proposed and could provide information for regional water management policies. One of the most important lessons learned from this project is the highly social nature of managing traditional rainwater harvesting systems. Unlike modern, centralized water infrastructures, these systems often require the involvement of communities, which assume ownership and responsibility for them. This kind of community engagement leads to greater maintenance and, therefore, sustainability of the systems. Knowledge of the socio-cultural characteristics of these communities means that the systems can be adapted to the needs of each location, ensuring greater acceptance and efficiency.

Keywords: oasis, rainfall harvesting, arid regions, Mediterranean

Procedia PDF Downloads 19
179 Management of Urine Recovery at the Building Level

Authors: Joao Almeida, Ana Azevedo, Myriam Kanoun-Boule, Maria Ines Santos, Antonio Tadeu

Abstract:

The effects of the increasing expansion of cities and climate changes have encouraged European countries and regions to adopt nature-based solutions with ability to mitigate environmental issues and improve life in cities. Among these strategies, green roofs and urban gardens have been considered ingenious solutions, since they have the desirable potential to improve air quality, prevent floods, reduce the heat island effect and restore biodiversity in cities. However, an additional consumption of fresh water and mineral nutrients is necessary to sustain larger green urban areas. This communication discusses the main technical features of a new system to manage urine recovery at the building level and its application in green roofs. The depletion of critical nutrients like phosphorus constitutes an emergency. In turn, their elimination through urine is one of the principal causes for their loss. Thus, urine recovery in buildings may offer numerous advantages, constituting a valuable fertilizer abundantly available in cities and reducing the load on wastewater treatment plants. Although several urine-diverting toilets have been developed for this purpose and some experiments using urine directly in agriculture have already been carried out in Europe, several challenges have emerged with this practice concerning collection, sanitization, storage and application of urine in buildings. To our best knowledge, current buildings are not designed to receive these systems and integrated solutions with ability to self-manage the whole process of urine recovery, including separation, maturation and storage phases, are not known. Additionally, if from a hygiene point of view human urine may be considered a relatively safe fertilizer, the risk of disease transmission needs to be carefully analysed. A reduction in microorganisms can be achieved by storing the urine in closed tanks. However, several factors may affect this process, which may result in a higher survival rate for some pathogens. In this work, urine effluent was collected under real conditions, stored in closed containers and kept in climatic chambers under variable conditions simulating cold, temperate and tropical climates. These samples were subjected to a first physicochemical and microbiological control, which was repeated over time. The results obtained so far suggest that maturation conditions were reached for all the three temperatures and that a storage period of less than three months is required to achieve a strong depletion of microorganisms. The authors are grateful for the Project WashOne (POCI-01-0247-FEDER-017461) funded by the Operational Program for Competitiveness and Internationalization (POCI) of Portugal 2020, with the support of the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER).

Keywords: sustainable green roofs and urban gardens, urban nutrient cycle, urine-based fertilizers, urine recovery in buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
178 A Data-Driven Compartmental Model for Dengue Forecasting and Covariate Inference

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

Abstract:

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 55