Search results for: long term peak demand forecasting

Authors: Meredith Rossi, Lesley Lee, Mary Wear, Mary Van Baalen, Bradley Rhodes

Abstract:

The astronaut community is unique, and may be disproportionately exposed to occupational hazards not commonly seen in other communities. The extent to which the demands of the astronaut occupation and exposure to spaceflight-related hazards affect the health of the astronaut population over the life course is not completely known. A better understanding of the individual, population, and mission impacts of astronaut occupational exposures is critical to providing clinical care, targeting occupational surveillance efforts, and planning for future space exploration. The ability to characterize the risk of latent health conditions is a significant component of this understanding. Provision of health screening services to active and former astronauts ensures individual, mission, and community health and safety. Currently, the NASA-Johnson Space Center (JSC) Flight Medicine Clinic (FMC) provides extensive medical monitoring to active astronauts throughout their careers. Upon retirement, astronauts may voluntarily return to the JSC FMC for an annual preventive exam. However, current retiree monitoring includes only selected screening tests, representing an opportunity for augmentation. The potential long-term health effects of spaceflight demand an expanded framework of testing for former astronauts. The need is two-fold: screening tests widely recommended for other aging populations are necessary to rule out conditions resulting from the natural aging process (e.g., colonoscopy, mammography); and expanded monitoring will increase NASA’s ability to better characterize conditions resulting from astronaut occupational exposures. To meet this need, NASA has begun an extensive exploration of the overall approach, cost, and policy implications of expanding the medical monitoring of former NASA astronauts under the Astronaut Occupational Health program. Increasing the breadth of monitoring services will ultimately enrich the existing evidence base of occupational health risks to astronauts. Such an expansion would therefore improve the understanding of the health of the astronaut population as a whole, and the ability to identify, mitigate, and manage such risks in preparation for deep space exploration missions.

Keywords: astronaut, long-term health, NASA, occupational health, surveillance

Procedia PDF Downloads 505

Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

Abstract:

Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Hirseland Andreas, Kerschbaumer Lukas

Abstract:

In the case of Germany, there are about one million long-term unemployed – a figure that did not vary much during the past years. These long-term unemployed did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short-term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long-term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to become employed again, especially if it is accompanied by other impediments such as low-level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. As can be shown by this current research project, in these cases the chance to regain employment decreases to near nil. Almost two-thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Prospective employers are unlikely to hire long-term unemployed with additional impediments because they evaluate potential employees on their negative signaling (e.g. low-level education) and the implicit assumption of unproductiveness (e.g. poor health, age). Some findings of the panel survey “Labor market and social security” (PASS) carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency) spread a ray of hope, showing that unlikely does not necessarily mean impossible. The presentation reports on current research on these very scarce “success stories” of unlikely transitions from long-term unemployment to work and how these cases were able to perform this switch against all odds. The study is based on a mixed-method design. Within the panel survey (~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions were observed. These cases have been explored by qualitative inquiry – in depth-interviews and qualitative network techniques. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by certain biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting the labor market and their impact on welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small-scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation (e.g. organizing small-scale-structures and low-threshold services to encounter possible employers on a more informal basis like “meet and greet”).

Keywords: against-all-odds, mixed-methods, Welfare State, long-term unemployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

Abstract:

The development of agrotourism in Georgia has significant potential. The trend of population growth and demand for agrotourism products makes the interest and importance of the development of this field even more relevant. The article studies the trends in the development of agrotourism in Georgia; SWOT analysis reveals the potential for the development of agrotourism and assesses the perspectives, examines the factors hindering the development of agrotourism, assesses the role of the state in the development of agrotourism. Objectives: The purpose of the study is to determine the development trends of agrotourism in Georgia and to develop recommendations for prospective directions based on the assessment of the field's potential. Methodologies: Research methods are used: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison, statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend) and other methods, as well as SWOT analysis. Contributions: A positive trend in the development of agrotourism has been revealed. It is also shown that the demand for agrotourism products is growing. The agro touristic potential of Georgia was assessed and prospective directions for the development of the field have been determined. Conclusions: are drawn on the problems identified in the work and recommendations are proposed on ways to effectively use the potential opportunities of agrotourism and ways of long-term development.

Keywords: agrotourism, agrotourism products, agrotourism potential, development prospects.

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Chattrarat Hotrawaisaya

Abstract:

This research aims to formulate the logistics collaborative model which is the management tool for orchid flower exporter. The researchers study logistics activities in orchid supply chain that stakeholders can collaborate and develop, including demand forecasting, inventory management, warehouse and storage, order-processing, and transportation management. The research also explores logistics collaboration implementation into orchid’s stakeholders. The researcher collected data before implementation and after model implementation. Consequently, the costs and efficiency were calculated and compared between pre and post period of implementation. The research found that the results of applying the logistics collaborative model to orchid exporter reduces inventory cost and transport cost. The model also improves forecasting accuracy, and synchronizes supply chain of exporter. This research paper contributes the uniqueness logistics collaborative model which value to orchid industry in Thailand. The orchid exporters may use this model as their management tool which aims in competitive advantage.

Keywords: logistics, orchid, supply chain, collaboration

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Erich Ryan, Benjamin McDaniel, Dragoljub Kosanovic

Abstract:

Combined heat and power (CHP) plants are an efficient technology for meeting the heating and electric needs of large campus energy systems, but have come under greater scrutiny as the world pushes for emissions reductions and lower consumption of fossil fuels. The electrification of heating and cooling systems offers a great deal of potential for carbon savings, but these systems can be costly endeavors due to increased electric consumption and peak demand. Thermal energy storage (TES) has been shown to be an effective means of improving the viability of electrified systems, by shifting heating and cooling load to off-peak hours and reducing peak demand charges. In this study, we analyze the integration of an electrified heating and cooling system with thermal energy storage into a campus CHP plant, to investigate the potential of leveraging existing infrastructure and technologies with the climate goals of the 21st century. A TRNSYS model was built to simulate a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system with TES using measured campus heating and cooling loads. The GSHP with TES system is modeled to follow the parameters of industry standards and sized to provide an optimal balance of capital and operating costs. Using known CHP production information, costs and emissions were investigated for a unique large energy user rate structure that operates a CHP plant. The results highlight the cost and emissions benefits of a targeted integration of heat pump technology within the framework of existing CHP systems, along with the performance impacts and value of TES capability within the combined system.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, combined heat and power, heat pumps, electrification

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Mojibul Sajjad, Mohammad G. Rasul, Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir

Abstract:

The rate of natural gas dissociation from the Coal Matrix depends on depressurization of reservoir through removing of the cleat water from the coal seam. These waters are similar to brine and aged of long years. For improving the connectivity through fracking /fracturing, high pressure liquids are pumped off inside the coal body. A significant quantity of accumulated water, a combined mixture of cleat water and fracking fluids (back flow water) is pumped out through gas well. In Queensland Coal Seam Gas industry is in booming state and estimated of 30,000 wells would be active for CSG production forecasting life span of 30 years. Integrated water management along with water softening programs is practiced for subsequent treatment and later on discharge to nearby surface water catchment. Water treatment is an important part of the CSG industry. A case study on a CSG site and review on the test results are discussed for assessing the Standards & Practices for management of CSG by-product water and their subsequent disposal activities. This study was directed toward (i) water management and softening process in Spring Gully Mine field, (ii) Comparative analysis on experimental study and standards and (iii) Disposal of the treated water. This study also aimed for alternative usages and their impact on vegetation, living species as well as long term effects.

Keywords: coal seam gas (CSG), cleat water, hydro-fracking, product water

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Velly Kapadia, Reenu Singh

Abstract:

This report identifies the long-term driving forces behind urbanization and the impact of compact living on both society and the home and proposes a concept to create smarter and more sustainable homes. Compact living has been trending across India as a sustainable housing solution, and the reality is that India is currently facing a housing shortage in urban areas of around 10 million units. With the rising demand for housing, urban land prices have been rising and the cost of homes. The paper explores how and why the interior design of the homes can be improved to relieve the housing demand in an environmentally, socially and economically sustainable manner. A questionnaire survey was conducted to determine living patterns, area requirements, ecological footprints, energy consumption, purchasing patterns, and various pro-environmental behaviors of people who downsize to compact homes. Quantitative research explores sustainable material choices, durability, functionality, cost, and reusability of furniture. Besides addressing the need for smart and sustainable designed compact homes, a conceptual model is proposed, including options of ideal schematic layouts for homes in urban areas. In the conclusions, suggestions to improve space planning and suitable interior entities have been made to support the fact that compact homes are an eminently practical and sensible solution for the urban citizen.

Keywords: compact living, housing shortage, lifestyle, sustainable interior design

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Rudolph Carl Barrientos, Juwaln Diego Descallar, Rainer James Palmiano

Abstract:

Household Appliance Scheduling Systems (HASS) coupled with a Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing scheme, a form of Demand Side Management (DSM), is not widely utilized in the Philippines’ residential electricity sector. This paper’s goal is to encourage distribution utilities (DUs) to adopt HASS and TOU by analyzing the effect of household schedulers on the electricity price and load profile in a residential environment. To establish this, a city based on an implemented survey is generated using Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA). Then, a Binary Particle Swarm Optimization (BPSO) algorithm-based HASS is developed considering user satisfaction, electricity budget, appliance prioritization, energy storage systems, solar power, and electric vehicles. The simulations were assessed under varying levels of user compliance. Results showed that the average electricity cost, peak demand, and peak-to-average ratio (PAR) of the city load profile were all reduced. Therefore, the deployment of the HASS and TOU pricing scheme is beneficial for both stakeholders.

Keywords: appliance scheduling, DSM, TOU, BPSO, city-wide simulation, electric vehicle, appliance prioritization, energy storage system, solar power

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

Abstract:

The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Benny Benyamin Nasution, Rahmat Widia Sembiring, Abdul Rahman Dalimunthe, Nursiah Mustari, Nisfan Bahri, Berta br Ginting, Riadil Akhir Lubis, Rita Tavip Megawati, Indri Dithisari

Abstract:

The earth coordinate system is an important part of an attempt for earthquake forecasting, such as the one using Single Layer Hierarchical Graph Neuron (SLHGN). However, there are a number of problems that need to be worked out before the coordinate system can be utilized for the forecaster. One example of those is that SLHGN requires that the focused area of an earthquake must be constructed in a grid-like form. In fact, within the current earth coordinate system, the same longitude-difference would produce different distances. This can be observed at the distance on the Equator compared to distance at both poles. To deal with such a problem, a coordinate system has been developed, so that it can be used to support the ongoing earthquake forecasting using SLHGN. Two important issues have been developed in this system: 1) each location is not represented through two-value (longitude and latitude), but only a single value, 2) the conversion of the earth coordinate system to the x-y cartesian system requires no angular formulas, which is therefore fast. The accuracy and the performance have not been measured yet, since earthquake data is difficult to obtain. However, the characteristics of the SLHGN results show a very promising answer.

Keywords: hierarchical graph neuron, multidimensional hierarchical graph neuron, single layer hierarchical graph neuron, natural disaster forecasting, earthquake forecasting, earth coordinate system

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Hamza Al-Hazmi, Tabrej Khan

Abstract:

Obesity is today a global phenomenon that affects all countries, all types of societies regardless of age, sex, and income. The average value of the relative body mass index (BMI) has increased, which indicates an increasing obesity problem in the population. Nowadays obesity is a global problem, and mass production of clothes is standard size. People have a problem to find best-fitted clothes. The goal of the project is to develop an E-Commerce web portal as a new, innovative and customize clothing production system for obese people. This research has a long-term objective and short-term objective. The long-term objectives are (1) utilize online Web portal to improve tailors’ income, and (2) provide a free online platform to the tailors and customers in order to stitch clothes. Then, the short-term objective are (1) identify e-commerce’s requirements, (2) analyze and design the e-commerce application, and (3) build and implement the e-commerce application to Customized Clothes for Overweight people. This application can hopefully improve the tailors’ income and provide an easy way for customers to choose a fabric, apply style and provide measurement. This e-commerce application is not limited to obese or overweight people but also for other people who want to stitch cloth from tailors. MySQL and PHP we are going to use for developing the application.

Keywords: e-commerce, obesity, PHP, customize clothes

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

Abstract:

In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

Abstract:

Major concerns regarding nitritation of low-strength ammonium wastewaters include low ammonium loading rates (usually below 0.2 kg/m3-d) and uncertainty about long-term stability of the process. The purpose of this study was to test a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) filled with cell-immobilized polyethylene glycol (PEG) pellets to see if it could achieve efficient and stable nitritation under various environmental conditions. SBR was fed with synthetic ammonium wastewater of 30±2 mg-N/L and pH: 8±0.05, maintaining the dissolved oxygen concentration of 1.7±0.2 mg/L and the temperature at 30±1oC. The reaction was easily converted to partial nitrification mode within a month by feeding relatively high ammonium substrate (~100 mg-N/L) in the beginning. We observed stable nitritation over 300 days with high ammonium loading rates (as high as ~1.1 kg-N/m3-d), nitrite accumulation rates (mostly over 97%) and ammonium removal rate (mostly over 95%). DO was a major limiting substrate when the DO concentration was below ~4 mg/L and the NH4+-N concentration was above 5 mg/L, giving almost linear increase in the ammonium oxidation rate with the bulk DO increase. Low temperatures mainly affected the reaction rate, which could be compensated for by increasing the pellet volume (i.e. biomass). Our results demonstrated that an SBR filled with small cell-immobilized PEG pellets could achieve very efficient and stable nitritation of a low-strength ammonium wastewater.

Keywords: ammonium loading rate (ALR), cell-immobilization, long-term nitritation, sequencing batch reactor (SBR), sewage treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Faizah Asiri, Mohammed Fathy, Saeed Alghamdi, Nahlah Ayoub, Faisal Asiri

Abstract:

Background: - The strategies for this study were based on the toxic effect of long-term inhalation of Benzene on hormones and liver enzymes and various parameters related to it. The following databases were searched: benzene, hepatotoxic, benzene metabolism, hormones, testosterone, hemotoxic, and prolonged exposure. A systematic strategy is designed to search the literature that links benzene with the multiplicity and different types of intoxication or the medical abbreviations of diseases relevant to benzene exposure. Evidence suggests that getting rid of inhaled gasoline is by exhalation. Absorbed benzene is metabolized by giving phenolic acid as well as meconic acid, followed by urinary excretion of conjugate sulfates and glucuronides. Materials and Methods :- This work was conducted in the Al-Khadra laboratory in Taif 2020/2021 and aimed to measure some of the possible endocrinal and liver toxicities associated with benzene's long-term exposure in Saudi Arabia at the station workers who are considered the most exposed category to gasoline. One hundred ten station workers were included in this study. They were divided into four patient groups according to the chronic exposure rate to benzene, one control group, and three other groups of exposures. As follows: patient Group 1 (controlled group), patient Group 2 (exposed less than 1y), patient Group 3 (exposed 1-5 y), patient Group 4 (more than 5). Each group is compared with blood sample parameters (ALT, FSH and Testosterone, TSH). Blood samples were drawn from the participants, and statistical tests were performed. Significant change (p≤0.05) was examined compared to the control group. Workers' exposure to benzene led to a significant change in hematological, hormonal, and hepatic factors compared to the control group. Results:- The results obtained a relationship between long-term exposure to benzene and a decrease in the level of testosterone and FSH hormones, including that it poses a toxic risk in the long term (p≤0.05) when compared to the control. We obtained results confirming that there is no significant coloration between years of exposure and TSH level (p≤0.05) when compared to the control. Conclusion:- We conclude that some hormones and liver enzymes are affected by chronic doses of benzene through inhalation after our study was on the group most exposed to benzene, which is gas station workers.

Keywords: toxicities, benzene, hormones, station workers

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Etienne Gaborit, Dorothy Durnford, Daniel Deacu, Marco Carrera, Nathalie Gauthier, Camille Garnaud, Vincent Fortin

Abstract:

A new experimental streamflow forecasting system was recently implemented at the Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP). It relies on CaLDAS (Canadian Land Data Assimilation System) for the assimilation of surface variables, and on a surface prediction system that feeds a routing component. The surface energy and water budgets are simulated with the SVS (Soil, Vegetation, and Snow) Land-Surface Scheme (LSS) at 2.5-km grid spacing over Canada. The routing component is based on the Watroute routing scheme at 1-km grid spacing for the Great Lakes and Nelson River watersheds. The system is run in two distinct phases: an analysis part and a forecast part. During the analysis part, CaLDAS outputs are used to force the routing system, which performs streamflow assimilation. In forecast mode, the surface component is forced with the Canadian GEM atmospheric forecasts and is initialized with a CaLDAS analysis. Streamflow performances of this new system are presented over 2019. Performances are compared to the current ECCC’s operational streamflow forecasting system, which is different from the new experimental system in many aspects. These new streamflow forecasts are also compared to persistence. Overall, the new streamflow forecasting system presents promising results, highlighting the need for an elaborated assimilation phase before performing the forecasts. However, the system is still experimental and is continuously being improved. Some major recent improvements are presented here and include, for example, the assimilation of snow cover data from remote sensing, a backward propagation of assimilated flow observations, a new numerical scheme for the routing component, and a new reservoir model.

Keywords: assimilation system, distributed physical model, offline hydro-meteorological chain, short-term streamflow forecasts

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study of rainfall time series of weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand using various statistical methods enabled to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. ARIMA and Holt-Winter models based on exponential smoothing were built. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore, could give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for proper planning of agriculture, drainage system and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We found the best perform for forecasting is ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winter model

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

Abstract:

This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Reinhold Kosfeld, Andreas Gohs

Abstract:

In the reduction of CO₂ emissions, the transition to environmentally friendly transport modes has a high significance. In Germany, the climate protection programme 2030 includes various measures for promoting electromobility. Although electric cars at present hold a market share of just over one percent, its stock more than doubled in the past two years. Special measures like tax incentives and a buyer’s premium have been put in place to promote the shift towards electric cars and boost their diffusion. Knowledge of the future expansion of electric cars is required for planning purposes and adaptation measures. With a view of these objectives, we particularly investigate the effect of spatial spillovers on forecasting performance. For this purpose, time series econometrics and panel econometric models are designed for pure electric cars and hybrid cars for Germany. Regional forecasting models with spatial interactions are consistently estimated by using spatial econometric techniques. Regional data on the stocks of electric cars and their determinants at the district level (NUTS 3 regions) are available from the Federal Motor Transport Authority (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) for the period 2017 - 2019. A comparative examination of aggregated regional and national predictions provides quantitative information on accuracy gains by allowing for spatial spillovers in forecasting electric mobility.

Keywords: electric mobility, forecasting market diffusion, regional panel data model, spatial interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Biao Li

Abstract:

With the deepening of international exchanges and investment, the international comparison of power grid firms has become the focus of regulatory authorities. Ignoring the differences in the economic environment, resource endowment, technology, and other aspects of different countries or regions may lead to efficiency bias. Based on the Meta-frontier model, this paper divides China and Japan into two groups by using the data of China and Japan from 2006 to 2020. While preserving the differences between the two countries, it analyzes and compares the efficiency of the transmission and distribution industries of the two countries. Combined with the four-component stochastic frontier model, the efficiency is divided into transient and persistent efficiency. We found that there are obvious differences between the transmission and distribution sectors in China and Japan. On the one hand, the inefficiency of the two countries is mostly caused by long-term and structural problems. The key to improve the efficiency of the two countries is to focus more on solving long-term and structural problems. On the other hand, the long-term and structural problems that cause the inefficiency of the two countries are not the same. Quality factors have different effects on the efficiency of the two countries, and this different effect is captured by the common frontier model but is offset in the overall model. Based on these findings, this paper proposes some targeted policy recommendations.

Keywords: transmission and distribution industries, transient efficiency, persistent efficiency, meta-frontier, international comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Jongho Park, Ui-Cheol Shin, Jinwoong Choi, Sungnam Hong, Sun-Kyu Park

Abstract:

While the numerous structures built the industrialization are aging, the effort for the maintenance is concentrated in many countries. However, the traffic jam, environmental damage, and enormous maintenance cost, and etc become a problem. So, in order to solve this, the modular bridge has been studied. This bridge is the structure which utilizes and assembles the standard precast member. Through this, the substitution of the existing bridge and advantage of the easy maintenance will be achieved. However, the reliability in the long-term behavior is insufficient due to the junction part between modular precast members. Therefore, in this research, the cyclic load loading experiment was performed on the junction and deflection was analyzed by long-term service in modular slab connection. The deflection of modular slab with junction was mostly generated when initial and final test.

Keywords: modular bridge, deflection, cyclic loading, junction

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: Peng Liu, Chyng Wen Tee, Xiaofei Xu

Abstract:

This paper integrates machine learning forecasting techniques into the multi-period portfolio optimization framework, enabling dynamic asset allocation based on multiple future periods. We explore both theoretical foundations and practical applications, employing diverse machine learning models for return forecasting. This comprehensive guide demonstrates the superiority of multi-period optimization over single-period approaches, particularly in risk mitigation through strategic rebalancing and enhanced market trend forecasting. Our goal is to promote wider adoption of multi-period optimization, providing insights that can significantly enhance the decision-making capabilities of practitioners and researchers alike.

Keywords: multi-period portfolio optimization, look-ahead constrained optimization, machine learning, sequential decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 5

Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi

Abstract:

Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Denis Duagi, Ben Carter, Maria Farrelly, Stephen Lisk, June S. L. Brown

Abstract:

Background: Adolescence represents a distinctive phase of development, and variables linked to this developmental period could affect the efficiency of prevention and treatment for depression and anxiety, as well as the long-term prognosis. The objectives of this study were to investigate the long-term effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for adolescents on depression and anxiety symptoms and to assess the influence of different intervention parameters on the long-term effects. Methods: Searches were carried out on the 11ᵗʰ of August 2022 using five databases (Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, PsychInfo, Web of Science), as well as trial registers. Randomized controlled trials of psychosocial interventions targeting specifically adolescents were included if they assessed outcomes at 1-year post-intervention or more. The Cochrane risk of bias-2 quality assessment tool was used. The primary outcome was depression, and studies were pooled using a standardised mean difference, with an associated 95% confidence interval, p-value, and I². The study protocol was pre-registered (CRD42022348668). Findings: A total of 57 reports (n= 46,678 participants) were included in the review. Psychosocial interventions led to small reductions in depressive symptoms, with a standardised mean difference (SMD) at 1-year of -0.08 (95%CI -0.20, -0.03, p=0.002, I²=72%), 18-months SMD=-0.12, 95% CI -0.22, -0.01, p=0.03, I²=63%) and 2-years SMD=-0.12 (95% CI -0.20, -0.03, p=0.01, I²=68%). Sub-group analyses indicated that targeted interventions produced stronger effects, particularly when delivered by trained mental health professionals (K=18, SMD=-0.24, 95% CI -0.38, -0.10, p=0.001, I²=60%). No effects were detected for anxiety at any assessment. Conclusion: Psychosocial interventions specifically targeting adolescents were shown to have small but positive effects on depression symptoms but not anxiety symptoms, which were sustained for up to 2 years. These findings highlight the potential population-level preventive effects if such psychosocial interventions become widely implemented in accessible settings such as schools.

Keywords: psychosocial, adolescent, interventions, depression, anxiety, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

Abstract:

Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: Tianhao Zhang, Cen Chen, Dawei Cheng, Yuqi Liang, Yuanyuan Liang

Abstract:

Dealing with anomalies is a crucial preprocessing step for multivariate time series prediction. However, existing methods that separate anomaly preprocessing and model training into two stages have certain limitations. Specifically, these methods fail to leverage auxiliary information necessary to distinguish latent anomalies related to spatiotemporal factors during the preprocessing stage. Instead, they solely rely on data distribution for detection which may lead to incorrect processing of many samples that are beneficial for training. To address this, we propose STTS-EAD, an end-to-end method that seamlessly integrates anomaly detection into the training process of multivariate time series forecasting and aims to improve Spatio-Temporal learning based Time Series prediction via Embedded Anomaly Detection. Our proposed STTS-EAD leverages spatio-temporal information for forecasting and anomaly detection, with the two parts alternately executed and optimized for each other. To the best of our knowledge, STTS-EAD is the first to integrate anomaly detection and forecasting tasks in the training phase for improving the accuracy of multivariate time series forecasting. Extensive experiments on a public stock dataset and two real-world sales datasets from a renowned coffee chain enterprise show that our proposed method can effectively process detected anomalies in the training stage to improve forecasting performance in the inference stage and significantly outperform baselines.

Keywords: multivariate time series, anomaly detection, time series forecasting, spatiotemporal feature learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 16

Authors: Roien Qiam, Shoshi Mizokami

Abstract:

Parking demand in the Central Business District (CBD) has enlarged with the increase of the number of private vehicles due to rapid economic growth, lack of an efficient public transport and traffic management system. This has resulted in low mobility, poor accessibility, serious congestion, high rates of traffic accident fatalities and injuries and air pollution, mainly because people have to drive slowly around to find a vacant spot. With parking pricing and enforcement policy, considerable advancement could be found, and on-street parking spaces could be managed efficiently and effectively. To evaluate parking demand and making parking policy, it is required to understand the current parking condition and driver’s behavior, understand how drivers choose their parking type and location as well as their behavior toward finding a vacant parking spot under parking charges and search times. This study illustrates the result from an observational, revealed and stated preference surveys and experiment. Attained data shows that there is a gap between supply and demand in parking and it has maximized. For the modeling of the parking decision, a choice model was constructed based on discrete choice modeling theory and multinomial logit model estimated by using SP survey data; the model represents the choice of an alternative among different alternatives which are priced on-street, off-street, and illegal parking. Individuals choose a parking type based on their preference concerning parking charges, searching times, access times and waiting times. The parking assignment model was obtained directly from behavioral model and is used in parking simulation. The study concludes with an evaluation of parking policy.

Keywords: CBD, parking demand forecast, parking policy, parking choice model

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

Abstract:

We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

Abstract:

Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10

Procedia PDF Downloads 208