Search results for: rainfall dependent model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7990

Search results for: rainfall dependent model

7870 Transient Population Dynamics of Phase Singularities in 2D Beeler-Reuter Model

Authors: Hidetoshi Konno, Akio Suzuki

Abstract:

The paper presented a transient population dynamics of phase singularities in 2D Beeler-Reuter model. Two stochastic modelings are examined: (i) the Master equation approach with the transition rate (i.e., λ(n, t) = λ(t)n and μ(n, t) = μ(t)n) and (ii) the nonlinear Langevin equation approach with a multiplicative noise. The exact general solution of the Master equation with arbitrary time-dependent transition rate is given. Then, the exact solution of the mean field equation for the nonlinear Langevin equation is also given. It is demonstrated that transient population dynamics is successfully identified by the generalized Logistic equation with fractional higher order nonlinear term. It is also demonstrated the necessity of introducing time-dependent transition rate in the master equation approach to incorporate the effect of nonlinearity.

Keywords: Transient population dynamics, Phase singularity, Birth-death process, Non-stationary Master equation, nonlinear Langevin equation, generalized Logistic equation.

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7869 Thermomechanical Damage Modeling of F114 Carbon Steel

Authors: A. El Amri, M. El Yakhloufi Haddou, A. Khamlichi

Abstract:

The numerical simulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in academic institutes and in the industry. It is a useful tool to predict many phenomena present in the classical manufacturing forming processes such as fracture. But, the results of such numerical model depend strongly on the parameters of the constitutive behavior model. The influences of thermal and mechanical loads cause damage. The temperature and strain rate dependent materials’ properties and their modelling are discussed. A Johnson-Cook Model of damage has been selected for the numerical simulations. Virtual software called the ABAQUS 6.11 is used for finite element analysis. This model was introduced in order to give information concerning crack initiation during thermal and mechanical loads.

Keywords: Thermomechanical fatigue, failure, numerical simulation, fracture, damages.

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7868 A Dynamic Model for a Drill in the Drilling Process

Authors: Bo Wun Huang, Ah Der Lin, Yung Chuan Chen, Jao Hwa Kuang

Abstract:

The dynamic model of a drill in drilling process was proposed and investigated in this study. To assure a good drilling quality, the vibration variation on the drill tips during high speed drilling is needed to be investigated. A pre-twisted beam is used to simulate the drill. The moving Winkler-Type elastic foundation is used to characterize the tip boundary variation in drilling. Due to the variation of the drill depth, a time dependent dynamic model for the drill is proposed. Results simulated from this proposed model indicate that an abrupt natural frequencies drop are experienced as the drill tip tough the workpiece, and a severe vibration is induced. The effects of parameters, e.g. drilling speed, depth, drill size and thrust force on the drill tip responses studied.

Keywords: Drilling, vibration of drill, twisted beam

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7867 Determination of Unsaturated Soil Permeability Based on Geometric Factor Development of Constant Discharge Model

Authors: A. Rifa’i, Y. Takeshita, M. Komatsu

Abstract:

After Yogyakarta earthquake in 2006, the main problem that occurred in the first yard of Prambanan Temple is ponding area that occurred after rainfall. Soil characterization needs to be determined by conducting several processes, especially permeability coefficient (k) in both saturated and unsaturated conditions to solve this problem. More accurate and efficient field testing procedure is required to obtain permeability data that present the field condition. One of the field permeability test equipment is Constant Discharge procedure to determine the permeability coefficient. Necessary adjustments of the Constant Discharge procedure are needed to be determined especially the value of geometric factor (F) to improve the corresponding value of permeability coefficient. The value of k will be correlated with the value of volumetric water content (θ) of an unsaturated condition until saturated condition. The principle procedure of Constant Discharge model provides a constant flow in permeameter tube that flows into the ground until the water level in the tube becomes constant. Constant water level in the tube is highly dependent on the tube dimension. Every tube dimension has a shape factor called the geometric factor that affects the result of the test. Geometric factor value is defined as the characteristic of shape and radius of the tube. This research has modified the geometric factor parameters by using empty material tube method so that the geometric factor will change. Saturation level is monitored by using soil moisture sensor. The field test results were compared with the results of laboratory tests to validate the results of the test. Field and laboratory test results of empty tube material method have an average difference of 3.33 x 10-4 cm/sec. The test results showed that modified geometric factor provides more accurate data. The improved methods of constant discharge procedure provide more relevant results.

Keywords: Constant discharge, geometric factor, permeability coefficient, unsaturated soils.

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7866 Neural Networks for Short Term Wind Speed Prediction

Authors: K. Sreelakshmi, P. Ramakanthkumar

Abstract:

Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control, rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which uses back propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Short term wind speed prediction, Neural networks, Back propagation.

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7865 Soil Moisture Content in Hill-Filed Side Slope

Authors: A. Aboufayed

Abstract:

The soil moisture content is an important property of the soil. The results of mean weekly gravimetric soil moisture content, measured for the three soil layers within the A horizon, showed that it was higher for the top 5 cm over the whole period of monitoring (15/7/2004 up to 10/11/05) with the variation becoming greater during winter time. This reflects the pattern of rainfall in Ireland which is spread over the whole year and shows that light rainfall events during summer time were compensated by loss through evapotranspiration, but only in the top 5 cm of soil. This layer had the highest porosity and highest moisture holding capacity due to the high content of organic matter. The gravimetric soil moisture contents of the top 5 cm and the underlying 5-15 and 15-25 cm layers show that bottom site of the Hill Field had higher soil moisture content than the middle and top sites during the whole period of monitoring.

Keywords: Soil, Soil moisture, Gravimetric soil moisture content.

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7864 Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: A Study of the Himalayan Region State

Authors: Rajendra Kumar Isaac, Monisha Isaac

Abstract:

Climate variability and changes are the emerging challenges for Indian agriculture with the growing population to ensure national food security. A study was conducted to assess the Climatic Change effects in medium to low altitude areas of the Himalayan region causing changes in land use and cereal crop productivity with the various climatic parameters. The rainfall and temperature changes from 1951 to 2013 were studied at four locations of varying altitudes, namely Hardwar, Rudra Prayag, Uttar Kashi and Tehri Garwal. It was observed that there is noticeable increment in temperature on all the four locations. It was surprisingly observed that the mean rainfall intensity of 30 minutes duration has increased at the rate of 0.1 mm/hours since 2000. The study shows that the combined effect of increasing temperature, rainfall, runoff and urbanization at the mid-Himalayan region is causing an increase in various climatic disasters and changes in agriculture patterns. A noticeable change in cropping patterns, crop productivity and land use change was observed. Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary to ensure that sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture. Appropriate information is necessary for farmers, as well as planners and decision makers for developing, disseminating and adopting climate-smart technologies.

Keywords: Climate variability, agriculture, land use, mitigation strategies.

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7863 Effect of Marginal Quality Groundwater on Yield of Cotton Crop and Soil Salinity Status

Authors: Qureshi, A. L., Mahessar A. A., Dashti, R. K., Yasin S. M.

Abstract:

In this paper, effect of marginal quality groundwater on yield of cotton crop and soil salinity was studied. In this connection, three irrigation treatments each with four replications were applied. These treatments were i) use of canal water (T1), ii) use of marginal quality groundwater from tubewell (T2), and iii) conjunctive use by mixing with the ratio of 1:1 of canal water and marginal quality tubewell water (T3). Water was applied to the crop cultivated in Kharif season 2011; its quantity has been measured using cut-throat flume. Total 11 watering each of 50 mm depth have been applied from 20th April to 20th July, 2011. Further, irrigations were stopped due to monsoon rainfall up to crop harvesting. Maximum crop yield (seed cotton) was observed under T1 which was 1,517 kg/ha followed by T3 (mixed canal and tubewell water) having 1009 kg/ha and T2 i.e. marginal quality groundwater having 709 kg/ha. This concludes that crop yield in T2 and T3 in comparison to T1was reduced by about 53 and 30% respectively. It has been observed that yield of cotton crop is below potential limit for three treatments due to unexpected rainfall at the time of full flowering season; thus the yield was adversely affected. However, salt deposition in soil profiles was not observed that is due to leaching effect of heavy rainfall occurred during monsoon season.

Keywords: Conjunctive Use, Cotton Crop, Groundwater, Soil Salinity Status, Water Use Efficiency (WUE).

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7862 Plants Cover Effects on Overland Flow and on Soil Erosion under Simulated Rainfall Intensity

Authors: H. Madi, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to study the effects of plants cover on overland flow and, therefore, its influences on the amount of eroded and transported soil. In this investigation, all the experiments were conducted in the LEGHYD laboratory using a rainfall simulator and a soil tray. The experiments were conducted using an experimental plot (soil tray) which is 2m long, 0.5 m wide and 0.15 m deep. The soil used is an agricultural sandy soil (62,08% coarse sand, 19,14% fine sand, 11,57% silt and 7,21% clay). Plastic rods (4 mm in diameter) were used to simulate the plants at different densities: 0 stem/m2 (bared soil), 126 stems/m², 203 stems/m², 461 stems/m² and 2500 stems/m²). The used rainfall intensity is 73mm/h and the soil tray slope is fixed to 3°. The results have shown that the overland flow velocities decreased with increasing stems density, and the density cover has a great effect on sediment concentration. Darcy–Weisbach and Manning friction coefficients of overland flow increased when the stems density increased. Froude and Reynolds numbers decreased with increasing stems density and, consequently, the flow regime of all treatments was laminar and subcritical. From these findings, we conclude that increasing the plants cover can efficiently reduce soil loss and avoid denuding the roots plants.

Keywords: Soil erosion, vegetation, stems density, overland flow.

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7861 Group Similarity Transformation of a Time Dependent Chemical Convective Process

Authors: M. M. Kassem, A. S. Rashed

Abstract:

The time dependent progress of a chemical reaction over a flat horizontal plate is here considered. The problem is solved through the group similarity transformation method which reduces the number of independent by one and leads to a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The problem shows a singularity at the chemical reaction order n=1 and is analytically solved through the perturbation method. The behavior of the process is then numerically investigated for n≠1 and different Schmidt numbers. Graphical results for the velocity and concentration of chemicals based on the analytical and numerical solutions are presented and discussed.

Keywords: Time dependent, chemical convection, grouptransformation method, perturbation method.

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7860 Comparison of Different Hydrograph Routing Techniques in XPSTORM Modelling Software: A Case Study

Authors: Fatema Akram, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir

Abstract:

A variety of routing techniques are available to develop surface runoff hydrographs from rainfall. The selection of runoff routing method is very vital as it is directly related to the type of watershed and the required degree of accuracy. There are different modelling softwares available to explore the rainfall-runoff process in urban areas. XPSTORM, a link-node based, integrated stormwater modelling software, has been used in this study for developing surface runoff hydrograph for a Golf course area located in Rockhampton in Central Queensland in Australia. Four commonly used methods, namely SWMM runoff, Kinematic wave, Laurenson, and Time-Area are employed to generate runoff hydrograph for design storm of this study area. In runoff mode of XPSTORM, the rainfall, infiltration, evaporation and depression storage for subcatchments were simulated and the runoff from the subcatchment to collection node was calculated. The simulation results are presented, discussed and compared. The total surface runoff generated by SWMM runoff, Kinematic wave and Time-Area methods are found to be reasonably close, which indicates any of these methods can be used for developing runoff hydrograph of the study area. Laurenson method produces a comparatively less amount of surface runoff, however, it creates highest peak of surface runoff among all which may be suitable for hilly region. Although the Laurenson hydrograph technique is widely acceptable surface runoff routing technique in Queensland (Australia), extensive investigation is recommended with detailed topographic and hydrologic data in order to assess its suitability for use in the case study area.

Keywords: ARI, design storm, IFD, rainfall temporal pattern, routing techniques, surface runoff, XPSTORM.

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7859 Restricted Pedestrian Flow Performance Measures during Egress from a Complex Facility

Authors: Luthful A. Kawsar, Noraida A. Ghani, Anton A. Kamil, Adli Mustafa

Abstract:

In this paper, we use an M/G/C/C state dependent queuing model within a complex network topology to determine the different performance measures for pedestrian traffic flow. The occupants in this network topology need to go through some source corridors, from which they can choose their suitable exiting corridors. The performance measures were calculated using arrival rates that maximize the throughputs of source corridors. In order to increase the throughput of the network, the result indicates that the flow direction of pedestrian through the corridors has to be restricted and the arrival rates to the source corridor need to be controlled.

Keywords: Arrival rate, Multiple arrival sources, Probability of blocking, State dependent queuing networks, Throughput.

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7858 Modeling the Time-Dependent Rheological Behavior of Clays Used in Fabrication of Ceramic

Authors: L. Hammadi, N. Boudjenane, R. Houdjedje, R. Reffis, M. Belhadri

Abstract:

In this study, we investigated the thixotropic behavior of two clays used in fabrication of ceramic. The structural kinetic model (SKM) was used to characterize the thixotropic behavior of two different kinds of clays used in fabrication of ceramic. The SKM postulates that the change in the rheological behavior is associated with shear-induced breakdown of the internal structure of the clays. This model for the structure decay with time at constant shear rate assumes nth order kinetics for the decay of the material structure with a rate constant.

Keywords: Ceramic, clays, structural kinetic model, thixotropy, viscosity.

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7857 Thermal Effect on Wave Interaction in Composite Structures

Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos, V. Thierry

Abstract:

There exist a wide range of failure modes in composite structures due to the increased usage of the structures especially in aerospace industry. Moreover, temperature dependent wave response of composite and layered structures have been continuously studied, though still limited, in the last decade mainly due to the broad operating temperature range of aerospace structures. A wave finite element (WFE) and finite element (FE) based computational method is presented by which the temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics and interaction phenomenon in composite structures can be predicted. Initially, the temperature dependent mechanical properties of the panel in the range of -100 ◦C to 150 ◦C are measured experimentally using the Thermal Mechanical Analysis (TMA). Temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics of each waveguide of the structural system, which is discretized as a system of a number of waveguides coupled by a coupling element, is calculated using the WFE approach. The wave scattering properties, as a function of temperature, is determined by coupling the WFE wave characteristics models of the waveguides with the full FE modelling of the coupling element on which defect is included. Numerical case studies are exhibited for two waveguides coupled through a coupling element.

Keywords: Temperature dependent mechanical characteristics, wave propagation properties, damage detection, wave finite element, composite structure.

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7856 A Fuzzy Mathematical Model for Order Acceptance and Scheduling Problem

Authors: E. Koyuncu

Abstract:

The problem of Order Acceptance and Scheduling (OAS) is defined as a joint decision of which orders to accept for processing and how to schedule them. Any linear programming model representing real-world situation involves the parameters defined by the decision maker in an uncertain way or by means of language statement. Fuzzy data can be used to incorporate vagueness in the real-life situation. In this study, a fuzzy mathematical model is proposed for a single machine OAS problem, where the orders are defined by their fuzzy due dates, fuzzy processing times, and fuzzy sequence dependent setup times. The signed distance method, one of the fuzzy ranking methods, is used to handle the fuzzy constraints in the model.

Keywords: Fuzzy mathematical programming, fuzzy ranking, order acceptance, single machine scheduling.

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7855 Solution Approaches for Some Scheduling Problems with Learning Effect and Job Dependent Delivery Times

Authors: M. Duran Toksarı, B. Uçarkuş

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose two algorithms to optimally solve makespan and total completion time scheduling problems with learning effect and job dependent delivery times in a single machine environment. The delivery time is the extra time to eliminate adverse effect between the main processing and delivery to the customer. In this paper, we introduce the job dependent delivery times for some single machine scheduling problems with position dependent learning effect, which are makespan are total completion. The results with respect to two algorithms proposed for solving of the each problem are compared with LINGO solutions for 50-jobs, 100-jobs and 150- jobs problems. The proposed algorithms can find the same results in shorter time.

Keywords: Delivery times, learning effect, makespan, scheduling, total completion time.

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7854 Impacts of Global Warming on the World Food Market According to SRES Scenarios

Authors: J. Furuya, S. Kobayashi, S. D. Meyer

Abstract:

This research examines possible effects of climatic change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model. Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or regions will have different trends depending on the context. These alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population, temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant further investigation.

Keywords: Global warming, SRES scenarios, World food model.

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7853 Sustainable Use of Laura Lens during Drought

Authors: Kazuhisa Koda, Tsutomu Kobayashi

Abstract:

Laura Island, which is located about 50 km away from downtown, is a source of water supply in Majuro atoll, which is the capital of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Low and flat Majuro atoll has neither river nor lake. It is very important for Majuro atoll to ensure the conservation of its water resources. However, upconing, which is the process of partial rising of the freshwater-saltwater boundary near the water-supply well, was caused by the excess pumping from it during the severe drought in 1998. Upconing will make the water usage of the freshwater lens difficult. Thus, appropriate water usage is required to prevent up coning in the freshwater lens because there is no other water source during drought. Numerical simulation of water usage applying SEAWAT model was conducted at the central part of Laura Island, including the water supply well, which was affected by upconing. The freshwater lens was created as a result of infiltration of consistent average rainfall. The lens shape was almost the same as the one in 1985. 0 of monthly rainfall and variable daily pump discharge were used to calculate the sustainable pump discharge from the water supply well. Consequently, the total amount of pump discharge was increased as the daily pump discharge was increased, indicating that it needs more time to recover from upconing. Thus, a pump standard to reduce the pump intensity is being proposed, which is based on numerical simulation concerning the occurrence of the up-coning phenomenon in Laura Island during the drought.

Keywords: Freshwater lens, islands, numerical simulation, sustainable water use.

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7852 Artificial Neural Network Prediction for Coke Strength after Reaction and Data Analysis

Authors: Sulata Maharana, B Biswas, Adity Ganguly, Ashok Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, the requirement for Coke quality prediction, its role in Blast furnaces, and the model output is explained. By applying method of Artificial Neural Networking (ANN) using back propagation (BP) algorithm, prediction model has been developed to predict CSR. Important blast furnace functions such as permeability, heat exchanging, melting, and reducing capacity are mostly connected to coke quality. Coke quality is further dependent upon coal characterization and coke making process parameters. The ANN model developed is a useful tool for process experts to adjust the control parameters in case of coke quality deviations. The model also makes it possible to predict CSR for new coal blends which are yet to be used in Coke Plant. Input data to the model was structured into 3 modules, for tenure of past 2 years and the incremental models thus developed assists in identifying the group causing the deviation of CSR.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, backpropagation, CokeStrength after Reaction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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7851 Hydrological Characterization of a Watershed for Streamflow Prediction

Authors: Oseni Taiwo Amoo, Bloodless Dzwairo

Abstract:

In this paper, we extend the versatility and usefulness of GIS as a methodology for any river basin hydrologic characteristics analysis (HCA). The Gurara River basin located in North-Central Nigeria is presented in this study. It is an on-going research using spatial Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Arc-Hydro tools to take inventory of the basin characteristics in order to predict water abstraction quantification on streamflow regime. One of the main concerns of hydrological modelling is the quantification of runoff from rainstorm events. In practice, the soil conservation service curve (SCS) method and the Conventional procedure called rational technique are still generally used these traditional hydrological lumped models convert statistical properties of rainfall in river basin to observed runoff and hydrograph. However, the models give little or no information about spatially dispersed information on rainfall and basin physical characteristics. Therefore, this paper synthesizes morphometric parameters in generating runoff. The expected results of the basin characteristics such as size, area, shape, slope of the watershed and stream distribution network analysis could be useful in estimating streamflow discharge. Water resources managers and irrigation farmers could utilize the tool for determining net return from available scarce water resources, where past data records are sparse for the aspect of land and climate.

Keywords: Hydrological characteristic, land and climate, runoff discharge, streamflow.

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7850 Progressive Changes in Physicochemical Constituent of Rainwater: A Case Study at Oyoko, a Rural Community in Ghana

Authors: J. O. Yeboah, K Aboraa, K. Kodom

Abstract:

The chemical and physical characteristics of rainwater harvested from a typical rooftop were progressively studied. The samples of rainwater collected were analyzed for pH, major ion concentrations, TDS, turbidity, conductivity. All the Physicochemical constituents fell within the WHO guideline limits at some points as rainfall progresses except the pH. All the components of rainwater quality measured during the study showed higher concentrations during the early stages of rainfall and reduce as time progresses. There was a downward trend in terms of pH as rain progressed, with 18% of the samples recording pH below the WHO limit of 6.5-8.0. It was observed that iron concentration was above the WHO threshold value of 0.3 mg/l on occasions of heavy rains. The results revealed that most of physicochemical characteristics of rainwater samples were generally below the WHO threshold, as such, the rainwater characteristics showed satisfactory conditions in terms of physicochemical constituents.

Keywords: Conductivity, pH, physicochemistry, rainwater quality, TDS.

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7849 Delay-Dependent Stability Criteria for Linear Time-Delay System of Neutral Type

Authors: Myeongjin Park, Ohmin Kwon, Juhyun Park, Sangmoon Lee

Abstract:

This paper proposes improved delay-dependent stability conditions of the linear time-delay systems of neutral type. The proposed methods employ a suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii’s functional and a new form of the augmented system. New delay-dependent stability criteria for the systems are established in terms of Linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) which can be easily solved by various effective optimization algorithms. Numerical examples showed that the proposed method is effective and can provide less conservative results.

Keywords: Neutral systems, Time-delay, Stability, Lyapunovmethod, LMI.

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7848 The Effect of Raindrop Kinetic Energy on Soil Erodibility

Authors: A. Moussouni, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

Soil erosion is a very complex phenomenon, resulting from detachment and transport of soil particles by erosion agents. The kinetic energy of raindrop is the energy available for detachment and transport by splashing rain. The soil erodibility is defined as the ability of soil to resist to erosion. For this purpose, an experimental study was conducted in the laboratory using rainfall simulator to study the effect of the kinetic energy of rain (Ec) on the soil erodibility (K). The soil used was a sandy agricultural soil of 62.08% coarse sand, 19.14% fine sand, 6.39% fine silt, 5.18% coarse silt and 7.21% clay. The obtained results show that the kinetic energy of raindrops evolves as a power law with soil erodibility.

Keywords: Erosion, runoff, raindrop kinetic energy, soil erodibility, rainfall intensity, raindrop fall velocity.

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7847 Systemic Approach to Risk Measurement of Drainage Systems in Urban Areas

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater.

In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: Drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement.

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7846 A New Analytic Solution for the Heat Conduction with Time-Dependent Heat Transfer Coefficient

Authors: Te Wen Tu, Sen Yung Lee

Abstract:

An alternative approach is proposed to develop the analytic solution for one dimensional heat conduction with one mixed type boundary condition and general time-dependent heat transfer coefficient. In this study, the physic meaning of the solution procedure is revealed. It is shown that the shifting function takes the physic meaning of the reciprocal of Biot function in the initial time. Numerical results show the accuracy of this study. Comparing with those given in the existing literature, the difference is less than 0.3%.

Keywords: Analytic solution, heat transfer coefficient, shifting function method, time-dependent boundary condition.

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7845 A Study of Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Gross Domestic Product Growth Forecasting

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries. We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model. We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and can be a very useful alternative tool used by the national statistical services and the banking and finance industry.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Forecasting, Gross DomesticProduct, Neuro-Fuzzy

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7844 A Scatter Search and Help Policies Approaches for a New Mixed Model Assembly Lines Sequencing Problem

Authors: N. Manavizadeh , M. Rabbani , H. Sotudian , F. Jolai

Abstract:

Mixed Model Production is the practice of assembling several distinct and different models of a product on the same assembly line without changeovers and then sequencing those models in a way that smoothes the demand for upstream components. In this paper, we consider an objective function which minimizes total stoppage time and total idle time and it is presented sequence dependent set up time. Many studies have been done on the mixed model assembly lines. But in this paper we specifically focused on reducing the idle times. This is possible through various help policies. For improving the solutions, some cases developed and about 40 tests problem was considered. We use scatter search for optimization and for showing the efficiency of our algorithm, experimental results shows behavior of method. Scatter search and help policies can produce high quality answers, so it has been used in this paper.

Keywords: mixed model assembly lines, Scatter search, help policies, idle time, Stoppage time

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7843 Control of Pendulum on a Cart with State Dependent Riccati Equations

Authors: N. M. Singh, Jayant Dubey, Ghanshyam Laddha

Abstract:

State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) approach is a modification of the well studied LQR method. It has the capability of being applied to control nonlinear systems. In this paper the technique has been applied to control the single inverted pendulum (SIP) which represents a rich class of nonlinear underactuated systems. SIP modeling is based on Euler-Lagrange equations. A procedure is developed for judicious selection of weighting parameters and constraint handling. The controller designed by SDRE technique here gives better results than existing controllers designed by energy based techniques.

Keywords: State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE), Single Inverted Pendulum (SIP), Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR)

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7842 Estimation of Relative Subsidence of Collapsible Soils Using Electromagnetic Measurements

Authors: Henok Hailemariam, Frank Wuttke

Abstract:

Collapsible soils are weak soils that appear to be stable in their natural state, normally dry condition, but rapidly deform under saturation (wetting), thus generating large and unexpected settlements which often yield disastrous consequences for structures unwittingly built on such deposits. In this study, a prediction model for the relative subsidence of stressed collapsible soils based on dielectric permittivity measurement is presented. Unlike most existing methods for soil subsidence prediction, this model does not require moisture content as an input parameter, thus providing the opportunity to obtain accurate estimation of the relative subsidence of collapsible soils using dielectric measurement only. The prediction model is developed based on an existing relative subsidence prediction model (which is dependent on soil moisture condition) and an advanced theoretical frequency and temperature-dependent electromagnetic mixing equation (which effectively removes the moisture content dependence of the original relative subsidence prediction model). For large scale sub-surface soil exploration purposes, the spatial sub-surface soil dielectric data over wide areas and high depths of weak (collapsible) soil deposits can be obtained using non-destructive high frequency electromagnetic (HF-EM) measurement techniques such as ground penetrating radar (GPR). For laboratory or small scale in-situ measurements, techniques such as an open-ended coaxial line with widely applicable time domain reflectometry (TDR) or vector network analysers (VNAs) are usually employed to obtain the soil dielectric data. By using soil dielectric data obtained from small or large scale non-destructive HF-EM investigations, the new model can effectively predict the relative subsidence of weak soils without the need to extract samples for moisture content measurement. Some of the resulting benefits are the preservation of the undisturbed nature of the soil as well as a reduction in the investigation costs and analysis time in the identification of weak (problematic) soils. The accuracy of prediction of the presented model is assessed by conducting relative subsidence tests on a collapsible soil at various initial soil conditions and a good match between the model prediction and experimental results is obtained.

Keywords: Collapsible soil, relative subsidence, dielectric permittivity, moisture content.

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7841 Schrödinger Equation with Position-Dependent Mass: Staggered Mass Distributions

Authors: J. J. Peña, J. Morales, J. García-Ravelo, L. Arcos-Díaz

Abstract:

The Point canonical transformation method is applied for solving the Schrödinger equation with position-dependent mass. This class of problem has been solved for continuous mass distributions. In this work, a staggered mass distribution for the case of a free particle in an infinite square well potential has been proposed. The continuity conditions as well as normalization for the wave function are also considered. The proposal can be used for dealing with other kind of staggered mass distributions in the Schrödinger equation with different quantum potentials.

Keywords: Free particle, point canonical transformation method, position-dependent mass, staggered mass distribution.

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