Search results for: US equity market

Authors: Reinhold Decker, Christian Holsing, Sascha Lerke

Abstract:

This paper presents a new growing neural network for cluster analysis and market segmentation, which optimizes the size and structure of clusters by iteratively checking them for multivariate normality. We combine the recently published SGNN approach [8] with the basic principle underlying the Gaussian-means algorithm [13] and the Mardia test for multivariate normality [18, 19]. The new approach distinguishes from existing ones by its holistic design and its great autonomy regarding the clustering process as a whole. Its performance is demonstrated by means of synthetic 2D data and by real lifestyle survey data usable for market segmentation.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, clustering, multivariatenormality, market segmentation, self-organization

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Authors: Brownhilder N. Neneh, A. Van Aardt Smit

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Underpricing is one anomaly in initial public offerings (IPO) literature that has been widely observed across different stock markets with different trends emerging over different time periods. This study seeks to determine how IPOs on the JSE performed on the first day, first week and first month over the period of 1996-2011. Underpricing trends are documented for both hot and cold market periods in terms of four main sectors (cyclical, defensive, growth stock and interest rate sensitive stocks). Using a sample of 360 listed companies on the JSE, the empirical findings established that IPOs on the JSE are significantly underpriced with an average market adjusted first day return of 62.9%. It is also established that hot market IPOs on the JSE are more underpriced than the cold market IPOs. Also observed is the fact that as the offer price per share increases above the median price for any given period, the level of underpricing decreases substantially. While significant differences exist in the level of underpricing of IPOs in the four different sectors in the hot and cold market periods, interest rates sensitive stocks showed a different trend from the other sectors and thus require further investigation to uncover this pattern.

Keywords: Underpricing, hot and cold markets, South Africa, JSE.

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Authors: Craig M. Allen

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Twenty two African entrepreneurs with Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in a single social network centered around a non-Muslim population in a smaller African country, selected an Islamic financing structure, a form of Murabaha, based solely on market rationale. These entrepreneurs had all won procurement contracts from major purchasers of goods within their country and faced difficulty arranging traditional bank financing to support their supply-chain needs. The Murabaha-based structure satisfied their market-driven demand and provided an attractive alternative to the traditional bank-offered lending products. The Murabaha-styled trade-financing structure was not promoted with any religious implications, but solely as a market solution to the existing problems associated with bank-related financing. This indicates the strong market forces that draw SMEs to financing structures that are traditionally considered within the framework of Islamic finance.

Keywords: Africa, entrepreneurs, Islamic finance, market acceptance, Murabaha, SMEs.

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Authors: Darren Zou

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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: Jianfeng Li, Feng Jin, Xiaoyu Yang

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This paper applies fuzzy clustering algorithm in classifying real estate companies in China according to some general financial indexes, such as income per share, share accumulation fund, net profit margins, weighted net assets yield and shareholders' equity. By constructing and normalizing initial partition matrix, getting fuzzy similar matrix with Minkowski metric and gaining the transitive closure, the dynamic fuzzy clustering analysis for real estate companies is shown clearly that different clustered result change gradually with the threshold reducing, and then, it-s shown there is the similar relationship with the prices of those companies in stock market. In this way, it-s great valuable in contrasting the real estate companies- financial condition in order to grasp some good chances of investment, and so on.

Keywords: Fuzzy clustering algorithm, data mining, real estate company, financial analysis.

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Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie, Nour Bata

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A distributor of Apple products' experiences numerous difficulties in developing marketing strategies for new and existing mobile product entries that maximize customer satisfaction and the firm's profitability. This research, therefore, integrates market segmentation in platform-based product family design and conjoint analysis to identify iSystem combinations that increase customer satisfaction and business profits. First, the enhanced market segmentation grid is created. Then, the estimated demand model is formulated. Finally, the profit models are constructed then used to determine the ideal product family design that maximizes profit. Conjoint analysis is used to explore customer preferences with their satisfaction levels. A total of 200 surveys are collected about customer preferences. Then, simulation is used to determine the importance values for each attribute. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the product family design that maximizes both objectives. In conclusion, the results of this research shall provide great support to Apple distributors in determining the best marketing strategies that enhance their market share.

Keywords: Market segmentation, conjoint analysis, market strategies, optimization.

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Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

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In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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Authors: M. A. Elbagermia, A. I. Alajtala, M. Alkerzab

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This study compares the quality of different brands of Portland Cement (PC) available in Libyan market. The amounts of chemical constituents like SiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3, CaO, MgO, SO3 and Lime Saturation Factor (LSF) were determined in accordance with Libyan (L.S.S) and Amrican (A.S.S) Standard Specifications. All the cement studies were found to be good for concrete work especially where no special property is required. The chemical and mineralogical analyses for studied clinker samples show that the dominant phases composition are C3S and C2S while the C3A and C4AF are less abundant.

Keywords: Portland cement, Chemical Composition, Libyan market, X-ray fluorescence.

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Authors: I. Erins, J. Erina

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The aim of the present article is to determine the impact of the external and internal factors of bank performance on the profitability indicators of the CEE countries banks in the period from 2006 to 2012. On the basis of research conducted abroad on bank and macroeconomic profitability indicators, in order to obtain research results, the authors evaluated return on average assets (ROAA) and return on average equity (ROAE) indicators of the CEE countries banks. The authors analyzed profitability indicators of banks using descriptive methods, SPSS data analysis methods, as well as data correlation and linear regression analysis. The authors concluded that most internal and external indicators of bank performance have no direct influence the profitability of the banks in the CEE countries. The only exceptions are credit risk and bank size, which affect one of the measures of bank profitability – return on average equity.

Keywords: Banks, CEE countries, Profitability ROAA, ROAE.

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Authors: Petr Seďa

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This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.

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Authors: Omer Farooq, Salman Ahmed Khan, Sadaf Khalid

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Modern day stock markets have almost entirely became automated. Even though it means increased profits for the investors by algorithms acting upon the slightest price change in order of microseconds, it also has given birth to many ethical dilemmas in the sense that slightest mistake can cause people to lose all of their livelihoods. This paper reviews one such event that happened on May 06, 2010 in which $1 trillion dollars disappeared from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We are going to discuss its various aspects and the ethical dilemmas that have arisen due to it.

Keywords: Flash Crash, Market Crash, Stock Market, Stock Market Crash.

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Authors: Yessengeldy Kuanyshpayev

Abstract:

Now in some countries of the world the cellular market is on the point of saturation, in others - positive dynamics of development kept on. The reasons for it are also different, but there are united by their general susceptibility to innovation changes, if they are really innovative. If to take as an example the cellular market of Kazakhstan it is defined by the low percent of smart phones at consumers, the low population density, undercapacity of the 3G channel, and absence of universal access to the LTE technology that limits dynamical growth of this branch. These moments are aggravated by failures of starting commercial projects by private companies which prevent to be implemented and widely adopted to a new product among consumers. The object of the research is possible integration of wireless and program technologies at which introduction the idea can regenerate in an innovation. The analysis of existing projects in the market and the possible union of the technologies through a prism of theoretical bases of innovative activity shows that efficiency of the company by development and introduction of innovations is possible only thanks to strict observance of all terms and conditions of the innovative process which main term is profit. Despite that fact that on a global scale the innovativeness issue of companies is very popular, there are no researches about possibility of innovative breaks in the field of wireless access to the Internet in the cellular market of Kazakhstan.

Keywords: Cellular market, commercialization, innovation, the effectiveness of company.

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Authors: Nadira Kaimova

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In this paper it was examined the influence of margin regulation on stock market volatility in EU 1993 – 2014. Regulating margin requirements or haircuts for securities financing transactions has for a long time been considered as a potential tool to limit the build-up of leverage and dampen volatility in financial markets. The margin requirement dictates how much investors can borrow against these securities. Margin can be an important part of investment. Using daily and monthly stock returns and there is no convincing evidence that EU Regulation margin requirements have served to dampen stock market volatility. In this paper was detected the expected negative relation between margin requirements and the amount of margin credit outstanding. Also, it confirmed that changes in margin requirements by the EU regulation have tended to follow than lead changes in market volatility. For the analysis have been used the modified Levene statistics to test whether the standard deviation of stock returns in the 25, 50 and 100 days preceding margin changes is the same as that in the succeeding 25, 50 and 100 days. The analysis started in May 1993 when it was first empowered to set the initial margin requirement and the last sample was in May 2014. To test whether margin requirements influence stock market volatility over the long term, the sample of stock returns was divided into 14 periods, according to the 14 changes in margin requirements.

Keywords: Levene statistic, Margin Regulation, Stock Market, Volatility.

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Authors: Naveen Virmani, Rajeev Saha, Rajeshwar Sahai

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In today’s market, striving hard has become necessary for the industries to survive due to the intense competition and globalization. In earlier days, there were few sellers and limited numbers of buyers, so customers were having fewer options to buy the product. But today, the market is highly competitive and volatile. Industries are focusing on robotics, advance manufacturing methods like AJM (Abrasive Jet Machining), EDM (Electric Discharge Machining), ECM (Electrochemical Machining) etc., CAD/CAM, CAE to make quality products and market them in shortest possible time. Leagile manufacturing system is ensuring best available solution at minimum cost to meet the market demand. This paper tries to assimilate the concept of Leagile manufacturing system in today’s scenario and evaluating key factors affecting Leagile manufacturing using digraph technique.

Keywords: Agile manufacturing, digraph, lean manufacturing, leagile manufacturing.

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Authors: K. Balamurugan, R. Muralisachithanandam, V. Dharmalingam, R. Srikanth

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This paper deals with the optimal choice and allocation of multi FACTS devices in Deregulated power system using Evolutionary Programming method. The objective is to achieve the power system economic generation allocation and dispatch in deregulated electricity market. Using the proposed method, the locations of the FACTS devices, their types and ratings are optimized simultaneously. Different kinds of FACTS devices are simulated in this study such as UPFC, TCSC, TCPST, and SVC. Simulation results validate the capability of this new approach in minimizing the overall system cost function, which includes the investment costs of the FACTS devices and the bid offers of the market participants. The proposed algorithm is an effective and practical method for the choice and allocation of FACTS devices in deregulated electricity market environment. The standard data of IEEE 14 Bus systems has been taken into account and simulated with aid of MAT-lab software and results were obtained.

Keywords: FACTS devices, Optimal allocation, Deregulated electricity market, Evolutionary programming, Mat Lab.

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Authors: Christina Babatsou, Efthimios Zervas

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Since 2008 a new economic crisis is present is the entire planet. This crisis affects several domains of the economic but also of the social life. Consumption decreases due to the lack of necessary resources of households to increase their expenditures. The car manufacturing is one of the main industrial activities in European Union (EU) and the present crisis particularly affects it. The present study examines the correlations between several socio-economic indicators and car market in European Union. The target is to find out the impact of the present economic crisis on the car market in EU.

Keywords: European Union, Passenger cars, Social indicators, Correlations

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Authors: Shang-Ping Lin, Shi-Hwa Lo, Ho-Li Yang

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Company mergers and acquisitions reached their peak in the twenty-first century. Mergers and acquisitions have become one of the competitive strategies for external growth. In general, it is believed that mergers and acquisitions can create synergies. However, they require complete information technology system and service integration, especially in the banking industry. Much of the research has focused on performance evaluation, shareholder equity allocation, or even the increase of company market value after the merger and acquisition, whereas few scholars have focused on information system integration post merger and acquisition. This study indicates the role of information systems after a merger and acquisition, explaining the benefits of information system integration using a merger and acquisition case in the banking industry as an example. In addition, we discuss factors that affect the performance of information system integration, and utilize system dynamics to interpret the relationship among factors that affect information system integration performance in the banking industry after a merger and acquisition.

Keywords: Merger and Acquisition, Information SystemIntegration, System Dynamics

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Authors: Laura Lukmanto, Harya Widiputra, Lukas

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Studies in economics domain tried to reveal the correlation between stock markets. Since the globalization era, interdependence between stock markets becomes more obvious. The Dynamic Interaction Network (DIN) algorithm, which was inspired by a Gene Regulatory Network (GRN) extraction method in the bioinformatics field, is applied to reveal important and complex dynamic relationship between stock markets. We use the data of the stock market indices from eight countries around the world in this study. Our results conclude that DIN is able to reveal and model patterns of dynamic interaction from the observed variables (i.e. stock market indices). Furthermore, it is also found that the extracted network models can be utilized to predict movement of the stock market indices with a considerably good accuracy.

Keywords: complex dynamic relationship, dynamic interaction network, interactive stock markets, stock market interdependence.

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Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, Radhika. S,

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In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: Ancillary services, BPSO, Power System Economics (Electricity markets), Self-Scheduling, Sliding Window Technique.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.

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Authors: Eulálio G. Campelo F., Wolffried Stucky

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The paper introduces and discusses definitions and concepts from the supplier relationship management area. This review has the goal to provide readers with the basic conditions to understand the market mechanisms and the technological developments of the SRM market. Further on, the work gives a picture of the actual business environment in which the SRM vendors are in, and the main trends in the field, based on the main SRM functionalities i.e. e-Procurement, e-Sourcing and Supplier Enablement, which indicates users and software providers the future technological developments and practises that will take place in this area in the next couple of years.

Keywords: Supplier Relationship Management, e-Procurement, e-Sourcing, Supplier Enablement.

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Authors: Sasitorn Chetanont

Abstract:

The objectives of this study are to find out the approaches to promote healthy recreation activities for elderly tourists and develop Bang Nam Phueng Floating Market to be a health tourism attraction. The research methodology was to analyze internal and external situations according to MP-MF and the MCSTEPS principles. As for the results of this study the researcher found that the healthy recreational activities for elderly tourists could be divided in 7 groups; travelling Bang Nam Phueng Floating Market activity, homestay relaxation, arts center platform activity, healthy massage activity, paying homage to a Buddha image activity, herbal joss-stick home activity, making local desserts and food activity.

Keywords: Elderly tourists, recreational activities, Bang Nam Phueng Floating Market.

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Authors: Bhawat Chiamjinnawat

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The agri-food market transformation has implied market growth for the fruit industry in Thailand. This article focuses on analysis of farmer competence and farm resources which affect market strategies used by fruit farmers in Chanthaburi province of Thailand. The survey data were collected through the use of face-to-face interviews with structured questionnaires. This study identified 14 drivers related to farmer competence and farm resources of which some had significant effect on the decision to use either high-value markets or traditional markets. The results suggest that farmers who used high-value markets were better educated and they had longer experience and larger sized business. Identifying the important factors that match with the market transformation provides policy with opportunities to support the fruit farmers to increase their market power. Policies that promote business expansion of agricultural cooperatives and knowledge sharing among farmers are recommended to reduce limitations due to limited knowledge, low experience, and small business sizes.

Keywords: Farmer competence, farm resources, fruit industry, high-value markets, Thailand.

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Authors: Tahmina Akhter

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In the present work, we make a study of the repercussions of the pandemic generated by COVID-19 in the real estate market, this disease has affected almost all sectors of the economy across different countries in the world, including the real estate markets. This documentary research, basically focused on the years 2021 and 2022, as we seek to focus on the strongest time of the pandemic. We carried out the study trying to take into account the repercussions throughout the world and that is why the data we analyze take into account information from all possible continents. Particularly in the US, Europe and China, where the COVID-19 impact has been of such proportions that it has fundamentally affected the housing market for middle-class housing. In addition, the pandemic has posed risks to investments in this market, due to the fact that companies in the sector have generated losses in certain cases; in the Chinese case, Evergrande, one of the largest companies in the sector, fell into default.

Keywords: COVID-19, real estate market, statistics of COVID-19, Evergrande Real Estate.

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Authors: Reinhard Neck, Guido Schäfer

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In this paper, we explore the macroeconomic effects of the European Single Market on Austria by simulating the McKibbin-Sachs Global Model. Global interdependences and the impact of long-run effects on short-run adjustments are taken into account. We study the sensitivity of the results with respect to different assumptions concerning monetary and fiscal policies for the countries and regions of the world economy. The consequences of different assumptions about budgetary policies in Austria are also investigated. The simulation results are contrasted with ex-post evaluations of the actual impact of Austria’s membership in the Single Market. As a result, it can be concluded that the Austrian participation in the European Single Market entails considerable long-run gains for the Austrian economy with nearly no adverse sideeffects on any macroeconomic target variable.

Keywords: Macroeconomics, European Union, simulation, sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Marin Mandić, Elis Sutlović, Tonći Modrić, Luka Stanić

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With the restructuring and deregulation of the power system, storage owners, generation companies or private producers can offer their multiple services on various power markets and earn income in different types of markets, such as the day-ahead, real-time, ancillary services market, etc. During the COVID-19 pandemic, electricity prices, as well as ancillary services prices, increased significantly. The optimization of the energy storage operation was performed using a suitable model for simulating the operation of a pumped storage hydropower plant under market conditions. The objective function maximizes the income earned through energy arbitration, regulation-up, regulation-down and spinning reserve services. The optimization technique used for solving the objective function is mixed integer linear programming (MILP). In numerical examples, the pumped storage hydropower plant operation has been optimized considering the already achieved hourly electricity market prices from Nord Pool for the pre-pandemic (2019) and the pandemic (2020 and 2021) years. The impact of the electricity market prices during the COVID-19 pandemic on energy storage operation is shown through the analysis of income, operating hours, reserved capacity and consumed energy for each service. The results indicate the role of energy storage during a significant fluctuation in electricity and services prices.

Keywords: Electrical market prices, electricity market, energy storage optimization, mixed integer linear programming, MILP, optimization.

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Authors: Alina Badulescu, Mariana Vancea

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The paper investigates the main issues concerning the activity of mergers and acquisitions in Romania in the period 2000- 2004. As in the first decade after the failure of the socialist economy the market of M&A was living its infancy based exclusively on privatization transactions, after 2000 the market entered in a stage of maturity. We are investigated both the registered evolutions in terms of number and value of transactions, and some sectoral issues, concerning the most important industries affected by the M&A process.

Keywords: Mergers and acquisitions, Romania, 2000-2010 decade.

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Authors: Daurenbek Kuleimenov

Abstract:

Urban life is characterized by rapid changes and high influence of market institutions on livelihood strategies of households to get sustainability, especially in countries of former Soviet Union challenged transformation of economy to the market type. Moving from socialistic worldviews to capitalistic ones which as usual regulated by free markets has been enough big challenge for households in urban area, which have to face with adaptation to new systems. Influence of market institutions on everyday life and planning system of households can destroy traditional household dispositions of the sustainable managing of a family budget. New changes of economy system can lead to splitting up large social networks and appearing new risky livelihood strategies of households. Urban households from Astana that is the capital city of Kazakhstan were interviewed within international research project “Livelihoods Strategies of Private Households in Central Asia. A Rural-Urban Comparison in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan”, which enables to explore urgent issues of livelihood strategies of urban households in current Kazakhstan under influence of the spreading of market institutions from the micro level research focus of their everyday life.

Keywords: Market institutions, Sustainability, Transformation economy, Urban households.

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

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In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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