Search results for: Spatial time series.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7529

Search results for: Spatial time series.

7379 A Model Predictive Control and Time Series Forecasting Framework for Supply Chain Management

Authors: Philip Doganis, Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis

Abstract:

Model Predictive Control has been previously applied to supply chain problems with promising results; however hitherto proposed systems possessed no information on future demand. A forecasting methodology will surely promote the efficiency of control actions by providing insight on the future. A complete supply chain management framework that is based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Time Series Forecasting will be presented in this paper. The proposed framework will be tested on industrial data in order to assess the efficiency of the method and the impact of forecast accuracy on overall control performance of the supply chain. To this end, forecasting methodologies with different characteristics will be implemented on test data to generate forecasts that will serve as input to the Model Predictive Control module.

Keywords: Forecasting, Model predictive control, production planning.

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7378 Spatial Mapping of Dengue Incidence: A Case Study in Hulu Langat District, Selangor, Malaysia

Authors: Er, A. C., Rosli, M. H., Asmahani A., Mohamad Naim M. R., Harsuzilawati M.

Abstract:

Dengue is a mosquito-borne infection that has peaked to an alarming rate in recent decades. It can be found in tropical and sub-tropical climate. In Malaysia, dengue has been declared as one of the national health threat to the public. This study aimed to map the spatial distributions of dengue cases in the district of Hulu Langat, Selangor via a combination of Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial statistic tools. Data related to dengue was gathered from the various government health agencies. The location of dengue cases was geocoded using a handheld GPS Juno SB Trimble. A total of 197 dengue cases occurring in 2003 were used in this study. Those data then was aggregated into sub-district level and then converted into GIS format. The study also used population or demographic data as well as the boundary of Hulu Langat. To assess the spatial distribution of dengue cases three spatial statistics method (Moran-s I, average nearest neighborhood (ANN) and kernel density estimation) were applied together with spatial analysis in the GIS environment. Those three indices were used to analyze the spatial distribution and average distance of dengue incidence and to locate the hot spot of dengue cases. The results indicated that the dengue cases was clustered (p < 0.01) when analyze using Moran-s I with z scores 5.03. The results from ANN analysis showed that the average nearest neighbor ratio is less than 1 which is 0.518755 (p < 0.0001). From this result, we can expect the dengue cases pattern in Hulu Langat district is exhibiting a cluster pattern. The z-score for dengue incidence within the district is -13.0525 (p < 0.0001). It was also found that the significant spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidences occurs at an average distance of 380.81 meters (p < 0.0001). Several locations especially residential area also had been identified as the hot spots of dengue cases in the district.

Keywords: Dengue, geographic information system (GIS), spatial analysis, spatial statistics

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7377 Automatic Classification of Periodic Heart Sounds Using Convolutional Neural Network

Authors: Jia Xin Low, Keng Wah Choo

Abstract:

This paper presents an automatic normal and abnormal heart sound classification model developed based on deep learning algorithm. MITHSDB heart sounds datasets obtained from the 2016 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge database were used in this research with the assumption that the electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded simultaneously with the heart sounds (phonocardiogram, PCG). The PCG time series are segmented per heart beat, and each sub-segment is converted to form a square intensity matrix, and classified using convolutional neural network (CNN) models. This approach removes the need to provide classification features for the supervised machine learning algorithm. Instead, the features are determined automatically through training, from the time series provided. The result proves that the prediction model is able to provide reasonable and comparable classification accuracy despite simple implementation. This approach can be used for real-time classification of heart sounds in Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), e.g. remote monitoring applications of PCG signal.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, discrete wavelet transform, deep learning, heart sound classification.

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7376 Optimizing Approach for Sifting Process to Solve a Common Type of Empirical Mode Decomposition Mode Mixing

Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig

Abstract:

Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting.

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7375 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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7374 Comparative Spatial Analysis of a Re-arranged Hospital Building

Authors: Burak Köken, Hatice D. Arslan, Bilgehan Y. Çakmak

Abstract:

Analyzing the relation networks between the hospital buildings which have complex structure and distinctive spatial relationships is quite difficult. The hospital buildings which require specialty in spatial relationship solutions during design and selfinnovation through the developing technology should survive and keep giving service even after the disasters such as earthquakes. In this study, a hospital building where the load-bearing system was strengthened because of the insufficient earthquake performance and the construction of an additional building was required to meet the increasing need for space was discussed and a comparative spatial evaluation of the hospital building was made with regard to its status before the change and after the change. For this reason, spatial organizations of the building before change and after the change were analyzed by means of Space Syntax method and the effects of the change on space organization parameters were searched by applying an analytical procedure. Using Depthmap UCL software, Connectivity, Visual Mean Depth, Beta and Visual Integration analyses were conducted. Based on the data obtained after the analyses, it was seen that the relationships between spaces of the building increased after the change and the building has become more explicit and understandable for the occupants. Furthermore, it was determined according to findings of the analysis that the increase in depth causes difficulty in perceiving the spaces and the changes considering this problem generally ease spatial use.

Keywords: Architecture, hospital building, space syntax, strengthening.

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7373 Synthetic Daily Flow Duration Curves for the Çoruh River Basin, Turkey

Authors: Fatih Tosunoğlu, İbrahim Can

Abstract:

The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95% of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey.

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7372 A Prediction Method for Large-Size Event Occurrences in the Sandpile Model

Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

Abstract:

In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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7371 Spatial Distribution of Socio-Economic Factors in Kogi State, Nigeria: Development Issues and Implication(s)

Authors: Yahya A. Sadiq, Grace F. Balogun, Olufemi J. Anjorin

Abstract:

This study analyzed the spatial distribution of socio-economic factors in Kogi state with a view to examining its implications on the development of the state. Consequently, questionnaires were administered on both the selected individual respondents (784) in the state and on the administrative offices (local council offices, 21) to solicit relevant information on the spatial distribution of socio-economic factors in their areas. The collected data were tabulated and analyzed using percentages. The study revealed commerce/trade, education, and health care, etc. as the major socio-economic factors in the state but with marked variation/imbalance in their spatial distribution across the study area. The rural-based local government areas have far less of such important facilities. Conclusively, it was recommended that there is need for socio-economic transformation of living conditions of people in the study area especially by positively redistributing local political power and the resources that are abound in the state will be felt by everybody including the commoners.

Keywords: Development, local government areas, socio-economic factors, spatial distribution.

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7370 A 4-Element Corporate Series Feed Millimeter-Wave Microstrip Antenna Array for 5G Applications

Authors: G. Viswanadh Raviteja

Abstract:

In this paper, a microstrip antenna array is designed for 5G applications. A corporate series feed is considered to operate with a center frequency between 27 to 28 GHz to be able to cover the 5G frequency bands 24.25-27.5 GHz, 26.5-29.5 GHz and 27.5-28.35 GHz. The substrate is taken to be Rogers RT/Duroid 6002. The corporate series 5G antenna array is designed stage by stage by taking into consideration a conventional antenna designed at 28 GHz, thereby constructing the 2X1 antenna array before arriving at the final design structure of 4-element corporate series feed antenna array. The discussions concerning S11 parameter, gain and voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) for the design structures are considered and all the important findings are tabulated. The proposed antenna array’s S11 parameter was found to be -29.00 dB at a frequency of 27.39 GHz with a good directional gain of 12.12 dB.

Keywords: Corporate series feed, millimeter wave antenna array, 5G applications, millimeter-wave (mm-wave) applications

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7369 Rural – Urban Partnership for Balanced Spatial Development in Latvia

Authors: Zane Bulderberga

Abstract:

Spatial dimension in development planning is becoming more topical in 21st century as a result of changes in population structure. Sustainable spatial development focuses on identifying and using territorial advantages to foster the harmonized development of the entire country, reducing negative effects of population concentration, increasing availability and mobility. EU and national development planning documents state polycentrism as main tool for balance spatial development, including investment concentration in growth centres. If mutual cooperation of growth centres as well as urban–rural cooperation is not fostered, then territorial differences can deepen and create unbalanced development.

The aim of research: to evaluate the urban–rural interaction, elaborating spatial development scenarios in framework of Latvian regional policy. To perform the research monographic, comparison, abstract–logical method, synthesis and analysis will be used when studying the theoretical aspects of research aiming at collecting the ideas of scientists from different countries, concepts, regulations as well as to create meaningful scientific discussion. Hierarchy analysis process (AHP) will be used to state further scenarios of spatial development in Latvia.

Experts from various institutions recognized urban – rural interaction and co-operation as an essential tool for the development. The most important factors for balanced spatial development in Latvia are availability of public transportation and improvement of service availability. Evaluating the three alternative scenarios, it was concluded that the urban – rural partnership will ensure a balanced development in Latvian regions.

Keywords: Rural – urban interaction, rural – urban cooperation, spatial development, AHP.

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7368 Individual Differences and Paired Learning in Virtual Environments

Authors: Patricia M. Boechler, Heather M. Gautreau

Abstract:

In this research study, postsecondary students completed an information learning task in an avatar-based 3D virtual learning environment. Three factors were of interest in relation to learning; 1) the influence of collaborative vs. independent conditions, 2) the influence of the spatial arrangement of the virtual environment (linear, random and clustered), and 3) the relationship of individual differences such as spatial skill, general computer experience and video game experience to learning. Students completed pretest measures of prior computer experience and prior spatial skill. Following the premeasure administration, students were given instruction to move through the virtual environment and study all the material within 10 information stations. In the collaborative condition, students proceeded in randomly assigned pairs, while in the independent condition they proceeded alone. After this learning phase, all students individually completed a multiple choice test to determine information retention. The overall results indicated that students in pairs did not perform any better or worse than independent students. As far as individual differences, only spatial ability predicted the performance of students. General computer experience and video game experience did not. Taking a closer look at the pairs and spatial ability, comparisons were made on pairs high/matched spatial ability, pairs low/matched spatial ability and pairs that were mismatched on spatial ability. The results showed that both high/matched pairs and mismatched pairs outperformed low/matched pairs. That is, if a pair had even one individual with strong spatial ability they would perform better than pairs with only low spatial ability individuals. This suggests that, in virtual environments, the specific individuals that are paired together are important for performance outcomes. The paper also includes a discussion of trends within the data that have implications for virtual environment education.

Keywords: Avatar-based, virtual environment, paired learning, individual differences.

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7367 Renewed Urban Waterfront: Spatial Conditions of a Contemporary Urban Space Typology

Authors: Beate Niemann, Fabian Pramel

Abstract:

The formerly industrially or militarily used Urban Waterfront is a potential area for urban development. Extensive interventions in the urban space come along with the development of these previously inaccessible areas in the city. The development of the Urban Waterfront in the European City is not subject to any recognizable urban paradigm. In this study, the development of the Urban Waterfront as a new urban space typology is analyzed by case studies of Urban Waterfront developments in European Cities. For humans, perceptible spatial conditions are categorized and it is identified whether the themed Urban Waterfront Developments are congruent or incongruent urban design interventions and which deviations the Urban Waterfront itself induce. As congruent urban design, a design is understood, which fits in the urban fabric regarding its similar spatial conditions to the surrounding. Incongruent urban design, however, shows significantly different conditions in its shape. Finally, the spatial relationship of the themed Urban Waterfront developments and their associated environment are compared in order to identify contrasts between new and old urban space. In this way, conclusions about urban design paradigms of the new urban space typology are tried to be drawn.

Keywords: Composition, congruence, identity, paradigm, spatial condition, urban design, urban development, urban waterfront.

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7366 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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7365 Planning the Building Evacuation Routes by a Spatial Network

Authors: Hsin-Yun Lee

Abstract:

The previous proposed evacuation routing approaches usually divide the space into multiple interlinked zones. However, it may be harder to clearly and objectively define the margins of each zone. This paper proposes an approach that connects locations of necessary guidance into a spatial network. In doing so, evacuation routes can be constructed based on the links between starting points, turning nodes, and terminal points. This approach more conforms to the real-life evacuation behavior. The feasibility of the proposed approach is evaluated through a case of one floor in a hospital building. Results indicate that the proposed approach provides valuable suggestions for evacuation planning.

Keywords: Evacuation, spatial network, simulation.

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7364 Automatic Detection and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Commercial Accumulations Using Digital Yellow Page Data

Authors: Yuki. Akiyama, Hiroaki. Sengoku, Ryosuke. Shibasaki

Abstract:

In this study, the locations and areas of commercial accumulations were detected by using digital yellow page data. An original buffering method that can accurately create polygons of commercial accumulations is proposed in this paper.; by using this method, distribution of commercial accumulations can be easily created and monitored over a wide area. The locations, areas, and time-series changes of commercial accumulations in the South Kanto region can be monitored by integrating polygons of commercial accumulations with the time-series data of digital yellow page data. The circumstances of commercial accumulations were shown to vary according to areas, that is, highly- urbanized regions such as the city center of Tokyo and prefectural capitals, suburban areas near large cities, and suburban and rural areas.

Keywords: Commercial accumulations, Spatio-temporal analysis, Urban monitoring, Yellow page data

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7363 Flexible Cities: A Multisided Spatial Application of Tracking Livability of Urban Environment

Authors: Maria Christofi, George Plastiras, Rafaella Elia, Vaggelis Tsiourtis, Theocharis Theocharides, Miltiadis Katsaros

Abstract:

The rapidly expanding urban areas of the world constitute a challenge of how we need to make the transition to "the next urbanization", which will be defined by new analytical tools and new sources of data. This paper is about the production of a spatial application, the ‘FUMapp’, where space and its initiative will be available literally, in meters, but also abstractly, at a sensed level. While existing spatial applications typically focus on illustrations of the urban infrastructure, the suggested application goes beyond the existing: It investigates how our environment's perception adapts to the alterations of the built environment through a dataset construction of biophysical measurements (eye-tracking, heart beating), and physical metrics (spatial characteristics, size of stimuli, rhythm of mobility). It explores the intersections between architecture, cognition, and computing where future design can be improved and identifies the flexibility and livability of the ‘available space’ of specific examined urban paths.

Keywords: Biophysical data, flexibility of urban, livability, next urbanization, spatial application.

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7362 A Novel Method for the Characterization of Synchronization and Coupling in Multichannel EEG and ECoG

Authors: Manfred Hartmann, Andreas Graef, Hannes Perko, Christoph Baumgartner, Tilmann Kluge

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce a novel method for the characterization of synchronziation and coupling effects in multivariate time series that can be used for the analysis of EEG or ECoG signals recorded during epileptic seizures. The method allows to visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of synchronization and coupling effects that are characteristic for epileptic seizures. Similar to other methods proposed for this purpose our method is based on a regression analysis. However, a more general definition of the regression together with an effective channel selection procedure allows to use the method even for time series that are highly correlated, which is commonly the case in EEG/ECoG recordings with large numbers of electrodes. The method was experimentally tested on ECoG recordings of epileptic seizures from patients with temporal lobe epilepsies. A comparision with the results from a independent visual inspection by clinical experts showed an excellent agreement with the patterns obtained with the proposed method.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, regression analysis, seizurepropagation.

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7361 Forecasting Stock Indexes Using Bayesian Additive Regression Tree

Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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7360 A Novel Approach to Image Compression of Colour Images by Plane Reduction Technique

Authors: K.Sowmyan, A.Siddarth, D.Menaka

Abstract:

Several methods have been proposed for color image compression but the reconstructed image had very low signal to noise ratio which made it inefficient. This paper describes a lossy compression technique for color images which overcomes the drawbacks. The technique works on spatial domain where the pixel values of RGB planes of the input color image is mapped onto two dimensional planes. The proposed technique produced better results than JPEG2000, 2DPCA and a comparative study is reported based on the image quality measures such as PSNR and MSE.Experiments on real time images are shown that compare this methodology with previous ones and demonstrate its advantages.

Keywords: Color Image compression, spatial domain, planereduction, root mean square, image restoration

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7359 Potential of GIS to Find Solutions to Space Related Problems in Construction Industry

Authors: V. K. Bansal

Abstract:

Geographic Information System (GIS) is a computerbased tool used extensively to solve various engineering problems related to spatial data. In spite of growing popularity of GIS, its complete potential to construction industry has not been realized. In this paper, the summary of up-to-date work on spatial applications of GIS technologies in construction industry is presented. GIS technologies have the potential to solve space related problems of construction industry involving complex visualization, integration of information, route planning, E-commerce, cost estimation, etc. GISbased methodology to handle time and space issues of construction projects scheduling is developed and discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Construction, GIS in construction, Scheduling, Project Management.

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7358 Implementation and Simulation of Half-Bridge Series Resonant Inverter in Zero Voltage Switching

Authors: Buket Turan Azizoğlu

Abstract:

In switch mode power inverters, small sized inverters can be obtained by increasing the switching frequency. Switching frequency increment causes high driver losses. Also, high dt di and dt dv produced by the switching action creates high Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) and Radio Frequency Interference (RFI). In this paper, a series half bridge series resonant inverter circuit is simulated and evaluated practically to demonstrate the turn-on and turn-off conditions during zero or close to zero voltage switching. Also, the reverse recovery current effects of the body diode of the MOSFETs were investigated by operating above and below resonant frequency.

Keywords: Driver losses, Half Bridge series resonant inverter, Zero Voltage Switching

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7357 PSS with Multiple FACTS Controllers Coordinated Design and Real-Time Implementation Using Advanced Adaptive PSO

Authors: Rajendraprasad Narne, P. C. Panda

Abstract:

In this article, coordinated tuning of power system stabilizer (PSS) with static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC) in multi-machine power system is proposed. The design of proposed coordinated damping controller is formulated as an optimization problem and the controller gains are optimized instantaneously using advanced adaptive particle swarm optimization (AAPSO). The objective function is framed with the inter-area speed deviations of the generators and it is minimized using AAPSO to improve the dynamic stability of power system under severe disturbance. The proposed coordinated controller performance is evaluated under a wide range of system operating conditions with three-phase fault disturbance. Using time domain simulations the damping characteristics of proposed controller is compared with individually tuned PSS, SVC and TCSC controllers. Finally, the real-time simulations are carried out in Opal-RT hardware simulator to synchronize the proposed controller performance in the real world.

Keywords: Advanced adaptive particle swarm optimization, Coordinated design, Power system stabilizer, Real-time implementation, static var compensator, Thyristor controlled series capacitor.

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7356 Time Series Forecasting Using a Hybrid RBF Neural Network and AR Model Based On Binomial Smoothing

Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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7355 Spatial Distribution and Risk Assessment of As, Hg, Co and Cr in Kaveh Industrial City, using Geostatistic and GIS

Authors: Abbas Hani

Abstract:

The concentrations of As, Hg, Co, Cr and Cd were tested for each soil sample, and their spatial patterns were analyzed by the semivariogram approach of geostatistics and geographical information system technology. Multivariate statistic approaches (principal component analysis and cluster analysis) were used to identify heavy metal sources and their spatial pattern. Principal component analysis coupled with correlation between heavy metals showed that primary inputs of As, Hg and Cd were due to anthropogenic while, Co, and Cr were associated with pedogenic factors. Ordinary kriging was carried out to map the spatial patters of heavy metals. The high pollution sources evaluated was related with usage of urban and industrial wastewater. The results of this study helpful for risk assessment of environmental pollution for decision making for industrial adjustment and remedy soil pollution.

Keywords: Geographic Information system, Geostatistics, Kaveh, Multivariate Statistical Analysis.

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7354 Hydrochemical Contamination Profiling and Spatial-Temporal Mapping with the Support of Multivariate and Cluster Statistical Analysis

Authors: S. Barbosa, M. Pinto, J. A. Almeida, E. Carvalho, C. Diamantino

Abstract:

The aim of this work was to test a methodology able to generate spatial-temporal maps that can synthesize simultaneously the trends of distinct hydrochemical indicators in an old radium-uranium tailings dam deposit. Multidimensionality reduction derived from principal component analysis and subsequent data aggregation derived from clustering analysis allow to identify distinct hydrochemical behavioral profiles and generate synthetic evolutionary hydrochemical maps.

Keywords: Contamination plume migration, K-means of PCA scores, groundwater and mine water monitoring, spatial-temporal hydrochemical trends.

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7353 Influence of Technology Parameters on Properties of AA6061/SiC Composites Produced By Kobo Method

Authors: J. Wozniak, M. Kostecki, K. Broniszewski, W. Bochniak, A. Olszyna

Abstract:

The influence of extrusion parameters on surface quality and properties of AA6061+x% vol. SiC (x = 0; 2,5; 5; 7,5;10) composites was discussed in this paper. The averages size of AA6061 and SiC particles were 10.6 μm and 0.42 μm, respectively. Two series of composites (I - compacts were preheated at extrusion temperature through 0.5 h and cooled by water directly after process; II - compacts were preheated through 3 hours and were not cooled) were consolidated via powder metallurgy processing and extruded by KoBo method. High values of density for both series of composites were achieved. Better surface quality was observed for II series of composites. Moreover, for these composites lower (compared to I series) but more uniform strength properties over the cross-section of the bar were noticed. Microstructure and Young-s modulus investigations were made.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, extrusion, metal matrix composites, microstructure

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7352 Mapping Crime against Women in India: Spatio-Temporal Analysis, 2001-2012

Authors: Ritvik Chauhan, Vijay Kumar Baraik

Abstract:

Women are most vulnerable to crime despite occupying central position in shaping a society as the first teacher of children. In India too, having equal rights and constitutional safeguards, the incidences of crime against them are large and grave. In this context of crime against women, especially rape has been increasing over time. This paper explores the spatial and temporal aspects of crime against women in India with special reference to rape. It also examines the crime against women with its spatial, socio-economic and demographic associates using related data obtained from the National Crime Records Bureau India, Indian Census and other government sources of the Government of India. The simple statistical, choropleth mapping and other cartographic representation methods have been used to see the crime rates, spatio-temporal patterns of crime, and association of crime with its correlates.  The major findings are visible spatial variations across the country and are also in the rising trends in terms of incidence and rates over the reference period. The study also indicates that the geographical associations are somewhat observed. However, selected indicators of socio-economic factors seem to have no significant bearing on crime against women at this level.

Keywords: Crime against women, crime mapping, trend analysis.

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7351 Occupants- Behavior and Spatial Implications of Riverfront Residential in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Authors: Hastuti Saptorini

Abstract:

The urbanization phenomenon in Yogyakarta Special Province, Indonesia, encouraged people move to the city for getting jobs in the informal sectors. They live in some temporary houses in the three main riverbanks: Gadjahwong, Code, and Winongo. Triggered by its independent status they use it as the space for accommodating domestic, social and economy activities because of the non standardized room size of their houses, where are recognized as the environmental hazards. This recognition makes the ambivalent perception when was related to the twelfth point of the philosophy of community development concept: the empowering individuals and communities. Its spatial implication have actually described the territory and the place making phenomena. By analyzing some data collected the author-s fundamental research funded by The General Directorate of Higher Education of Indonesia, this paper will discuss how do the spatial implications of the occupants- behavior and the numerous perceptions of those phenomena.

Keywords: occupants' behavior, socio-economic-cultural activities, spatial implication

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7350 The Role of People and Data in Complex Spatial-Related Long-Term Decisions: A Case Study of Capital Project Management Groups

Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

Abstract:

Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives, these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of the group to reach consensus and therefore for decision to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

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