Search results for: Selection of risk measures
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 2723

Search results for: Selection of risk measures

2513 Financial Regulations in the Process of Global Financial Crisis and Macroeconomics Impact of Basel III

Authors: M. Okan Tasar

Abstract:

Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures. Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential, regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations, system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks. Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30 to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises. Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed. The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.

Keywords: Banking Systems, Basel III, Financial regulation, Global Financial Crisis.

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2512 Public Private Partnership for Infrastructure Projects: Mapping the Key Risks

Authors: Julinda Keçi

Abstract:

In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and useroriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework, this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: construction, design, economic, legal, market, natural, operation, political, project finance, project selection and relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: Construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks.

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2511 Development of Risk-Based Ambient Air Quality Standards in the Russian Federation on the Basis of Risk Assessment Procedures Harmonized with International Approaches

Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

Abstract:

Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: Harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese.

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2510 Facility Location Selection using Preference Programming

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents preference programming technique based multiple criteria decision making analysis for selecting a facility location for a new organization or expansion of an existing facility which is of vital importance for a decision support system and strategic planning process. The implementation of decision support systems is considered crucial to sustain competitive advantage and profitability persistence in turbulent environment. As an effective strategic management and decision making is necessary, multiple criteria decision making analysis supports the decision makers to formulate and implement the right strategy. The investment cost associated with acquiring the property and facility construction makes the facility location selection problem a long-term strategic investment decision, which rationalize the best location selection which results in higher economic benefits through increased productivity and optimal distribution network. Selecting the proper facility location from a given set of alternatives is a difficult task, as many potential qualitative and quantitative multiple conflicting criteria are to be considered. This paper solves a facility location selection problem using preference programming, which is an effective multiple criteria decision making analysis tool applied to deal with complex decision problems in the operational research environment. The ranking results of preference programming are compared with WSM, TOPSIS and VIKOR methods.

Keywords: Facility Location Selection, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, Preference Programming, Location Selection, WSM, TOPSIS, VIKOR

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2509 A Review of Enterprise Risk Management Practices among Malaysian Public Listed Companies

Authors: Fong-Woon Lai

Abstract:

The risk sphere in business is fast changing and expanding. Almost anything has become a risk factor that will have potent, direct, and far reaching impacts on business. This paper examines the intensity of enterprise risk management (ERM) practices among the Malaysian public listed companies. The paper espouses a ERM framework comprising fourteen important implementation elements and processes. Results of the analysis indicate that the intensity of ERM implementation among the respondents is in the ‘good’ category of the semantic scale, which is deemed encouraging vis-à-vis the country’s regulatory regime.

Keywords: Enterprise risk management, implementation framework, ERM practices.

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2508 Fighter Aircraft Evaluation and Selection Process Based on Triangular Fuzzy Numbers in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a multiple criteria evaluation approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The fighter aircraft evaluation and selection decision making problem is modeled in a fuzzy environment with triangular fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy decision information related to the fighter aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ordering the alternatives and selecting the best candidate. The basic fuzzy TOPSIS procedure steps transform fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A practical numerical example illustrates the proposed approach to the fighter aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: triangular fuzzy number (TFN), multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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2507 A Balanced Cost Cluster-Heads Selection Algorithm for Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Ouadoudi Zytoune, Youssef Fakhri, Driss Aboutajdine

Abstract:

This paper focuses on reducing the power consumption of wireless sensor networks. Therefore, a communication protocol named LEACH (Low-Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy) is modified. We extend LEACHs stochastic cluster-head selection algorithm by a modifying the probability of each node to become cluster-head based on its required energy to transmit to the sink. We present an efficient energy aware routing algorithm for the wireless sensor networks. Our contribution consists in rotation selection of clusterheads considering the remoteness of the nodes to the sink, and then, the network nodes residual energy. This choice allows a best distribution of the transmission energy in the network. The cluster-heads selection algorithm is completely decentralized. Simulation results show that the energy is significantly reduced compared with the previous clustering based routing algorithm for the sensor networks.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Networks, Energy efficiency, WirelessCommunications, Clustering-based algorithm.

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2506 Development of Risk Assessment and Occupational Safety Management Model for Building Construction Projects

Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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2505 Review Risk and Threats Due to Dam Break

Authors: A.Roshandel, N.Hedayat, H.kiamanesh

Abstract:

The one of most important objects in implementation of damage analysis observations is manner of dam break wave propagation. In this paper velocity and wave height due dam break in with and without tailwater states for appointment hazardous lands and flood radius are investigate. In order to modeling above phenomenon finite volume method of Roe type for solving shallow water equations is used. Results indicated that in the dry bed state risk radius due to dam break is too high. While in the wet bed risk radius has a less wide. Therefore in the first state constructions and storage facilities are encountered with destruction risk. Further velocity due to dam break in the second state is more comparing to the first state. Hence erosion and scour the river bed in the dry bed is too more compare to the wet bed.

Keywords: Dam break, finite volume method, tailwater, risk radius, scour

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2504 A Novel Metric for Performance Evaluation of Image Fusion Algorithms

Authors: Nedeljko Cvejic, Artur Łoza, David Bull, Nishan Canagarajah

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel objective nonreference performance assessment algorithm for image fusion. It takes into account local measurements to estimate how well the important information in the source images is represented by the fused image. The metric is based on the Universal Image Quality Index and uses the similarity between blocks of pixels in the input images and the fused image as the weighting factors for the metrics. Experimental results confirm that the values of the proposed metrics correlate well with the subjective quality of the fused images, giving a significant improvement over standard measures based on mean squared error and mutual information.

Keywords: Fusion performance measures, image fusion, non-reference quality measures, objective quality measures.

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2503 How Herding Bias Could be Derived from Individual Investor Types and Risk Tolerance?

Authors: Huei-Wen Lin

Abstract:

This paper is to clarify the relationship of individual investor types, risk tolerance and herding bias. The questionnaire survey investigation is conducted to collect 389 valid and voluntary individual investors and to examine how the risk tolerance plays as a mediator between four types of personality and herding bias. Based on featuring BB&K model and reviewing the prior literature of psychology, a linear structural model are constructed and further used to evaluate the path of herding formation through the analysis of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results showed that more impetuous investors would be prone to herding bias directly, but rather exhibit higher risk tolerance. However, risk tolerance would fully mediate between the level of confidence (i.e., confident or anxious) and herding bias, but not mediate between the method of action (careful or impetuous) for individual investors.

Keywords: Herding, investor types, risk tolerance.

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2502 Plant Location Selection by Using a Three-Step Methodology: Delphi-AHP-VIKOR

Authors: B. Vahdani, S. M. Mousavi, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

Abstract:

Nowadays, the plant location selection has a critical impact on the performance of numerous companies. In this paper, a methodology is presented to solve this problem. The three decision making methods, namely Delphi, AHP and improved VIKOR, are hybridized in order to make the best use of information available based on the decision makers or experts. In this respect, the aim of using Delphi is to select the most influential criteria by a few decision makers. The AHP is utilized to give weights of the selected criteria. Finally, the improved VIKOR method is applied to rank alternatives. At the end of paper, an application example demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Decision making, Plant location selection, Delphi, AHP, Improved VIKOR.

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2501 Air Dispersion Model for Prediction Fugitive Landfill Gaseous Emission Impact in Ambient Atmosphere

Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

Abstract:

This paper will explore formation of HCl aerosol at atmospheric boundary layers and encourages the uptake of environmental modeling systems (EMSs) as a practice evaluation of gaseous emissions (“framework measures”) from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The conceptual model predicts greenhouse gas emissions to ecological points beyond landfill site operations. It focuses on incorporation traditional knowledge into baseline information for both measurement data and the mathematical results, regarding parameters influence model variable inputs. The paper has simplified parameters of aerosol processes based on the more complex aerosol process computations. The simple model can be implemented to both Gaussian and Eulerian rural dispersion models. Aerosol processes considered in this study were (i) the coagulation of particles, (ii) the condensation and evaporation of organic vapors, and (iii) dry deposition. The chemical transformation of gas-phase compounds is taken into account photochemical formulation with exposure effects according to HCl concentrations as starting point of risk assessment. The discussion set out distinctly aspect of sustainability in reflection inputs, outputs, and modes of impact on the environment. Thereby, models incorporate abiotic and biotic species to broaden the scope of integration for both quantification impact and assessment risks. The later environmental obligations suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved for mitigation measures of landfill gas (LFG) ultimately.

Keywords: Air dispersion model, landfill management, spatial analysis, environmental impact and risk assessment.

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2500 An Improved k Nearest Neighbor Classifier Using Interestingness Measures for Medical Image Mining

Authors: J. Alamelu Mangai, Satej Wagle, V. Santhosh Kumar

Abstract:

The exponential increase in the volume of medical image database has imposed new challenges to clinical routine in maintaining patient history, diagnosis, treatment and monitoring. With the advent of data mining and machine learning techniques it is possible to automate and/or assist physicians in clinical diagnosis. In this research a medical image classification framework using data mining techniques is proposed. It involves feature extraction, feature selection, feature discretization and classification. In the classification phase, the performance of the traditional kNN k nearest neighbor classifier is improved using a feature weighting scheme and a distance weighted voting instead of simple majority voting. Feature weights are calculated using the interestingness measures used in association rule mining. Experiments on the retinal fundus images show that the proposed framework improves the classification accuracy of traditional kNN from 78.57 % to 92.85 %.

Keywords: Medical Image Mining, Data Mining, Feature Weighting, Association Rule Mining, k nearest neighbor classifier.

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2499 An Economical Operation Analysis Optimization Model for Heavy Equipment Selection

Authors: A. Jrade, N. Markiz, N. Albelwi

Abstract:

Optimizing equipment selection in heavy earthwork operations is a critical key in the success of any construction project. The objective of this research incentive was geared towards developing a computer model to assist contractors and construction managers in estimating the cost of heavy earthwork operations. Economical operation analysis was conducted for an equipment fleet taking into consideration the owning and operating costs involved in earthwork operations. The model is being developed in a Microsoft environment and is capable of being integrated with other estimating and optimization models. In this study, Caterpillar® Performance Handbook [5] was the main resource used to obtain specifications of selected equipment. The implementation of the model shall give optimum selection of equipment fleet not only based on cost effectiveness but also in terms of versatility. To validate the model, a case study of an actual dam construction project was selected to quantify its degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Operation analysis, optimization model, equipment economics, equipment selection.

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2498 Feature Selection and Predictive Modeling of Housing Data Using Random Forest

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

Abstract:

Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: Housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error.

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2497 Detection of Linkages Between Extreme Flow Measures and Climate Indices

Authors: Mohammed Sharif, Donald Burn

Abstract:

Large scale climate signals and their teleconnections can influence hydro-meteorological variables on a local scale. Several extreme flow and timing measures, including high flow and low flow measures, from 62 hydrometric stations in Canada are investigated to detect possible linkages with several large scale climate indices. The streamflow data used in this study are derived from the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network and are characterized by relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions with a minimum of 40 years of record. A composite analysis approach was used to identify linkages between extreme flow and timing measures and climate indices. The approach involves determining the 10 highest and 10 lowest values of various climate indices from the data record. Extreme flow and timing measures for each station were examined for the years associated with the 10 largest values and the years associated with the 10 smallest values. In each case, a re-sampling approach was applied to determine if the 10 values of extreme flow measures differed significantly from the series mean. Results indicate that several stations are impacted by the large scale climate indices considered in this study. The results allow the determination of any relationship between stations that exhibit a statistically significant trend and stations for which the extreme measures exhibit a linkage with the climate indices.

Keywords: flood analysis, low-flow events, climate change, trend analysis, Canada

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2496 A Similarity Metric for Assessment of Image Fusion Algorithms

Authors: Nedeljko Cvejic, Artur Łoza, David Bull, Nishan Canagarajah

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel objective nonreference performance assessment algorithm for image fusion. It takes into account local measurements to estimate how well the important information in the source images is represented by the fused image. The metric is based on the Universal Image Quality Index and uses the similarity between blocks of pixels in the input images and the fused image as the weighting factors for the metrics. Experimental results confirm that the values of the proposed metrics correlate well with the subjective quality of the fused images, giving a significant improvement over standard measures based on mean squared error and mutual information.

Keywords: Fusion performance measures, image fusion, nonreferencequality measures, objective quality measures.

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2495 Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals Adsorbed in Particulates

Authors: Sadovska V.

Abstract:

The progress of concentrations of particular heavy metals was assessed in chosen localities in region Moravia, the Czech Republic, from 2007 to 2009. Particular metals were observed in localities with various types and characterization of zone. Pb, Ni, As and Cd were emphasized as a result of their toxicity and potential adverse health effect to the exposed population. The progress of metal concentrations and their health effects in the most polluted localities were examined. According to the results, the air pollution limit values were not exceeded. Based on the health risk assessment, the probability of developing tumorous diseases is acceptable, except for the increased probability of cancer risk from long-term exposure to As.

Keywords: Air pollution, heavy metals, health risk assessment, individual lifetime cancer risk

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2494 Aircraft Supplier Selection Process with Fuzzy Proximity Measure Method using Multiple Criteria Group Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Being effective in every organizational activity has become necessary due to the escalating level of competition in all areas of corporate life. In the context of supply chain management, aircraft supplier selection is currently one of the most crucial activities. It is possible to choose the best aircraft supplier and deliver efficiency in terms of cost, quality, delivery time, economic status, and institutionalization if a systematic supplier selection approach is used. In this study, an effective multiple criteria decision-making methodology, proximity measure method (PMM), is used within a fuzzy environment based on the vague structure of the real working environment. The best appropriate aircraft suppliers are identified and ranked after the proposed multiple criteria decision making technique is used in a real-life scenario.

Keywords: Aircraft supplier selection, multiple criteria decision making, fuzzy sets, proximity measure method, Minkowski distance family function, Hausdorff distance function, PMM, MCDM

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2493 Classification of Health Risk Factors to Predict the Risk of Falling in Older Adults

Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

Abstract:

Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: Classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults.

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2492 Medical Image Fusion Based On Redundant Wavelet Transform and Morphological Processing

Authors: P. S. Gomathi, B. Kalaavathi

Abstract:

The process in which the complementary information from multiple images is integrated to provide composite image that contains more information than the original input images is called image fusion. Medical image fusion provides useful information from multimodality medical images that provides additional information to the doctor for diagnosis of diseases in a better way. This paper represents the wavelet based medical image fusion algorithm on different multimodality medical images. In order to fuse the medical images, images are decomposed using Redundant Wavelet Transform (RWT). The high frequency coefficients are convolved with morphological operator followed by the maximum-selection (MS) rule. The low frequency coefficients are processed by MS rule. The reconstructed image is obtained by inverse RWT. The quantitative measures which includes Mean, Standard Deviation, Average Gradient, Spatial frequency, Edge based Similarity Measures are considered for evaluating the fused images. The performance of this proposed method is compared with Pixel averaging, PCA, and DWT fusion methods. When compared with conventional methods, the proposed framework provides better performance for analysis of multimodality medical images.

Keywords: Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Image Fusion, Morphological Processing, Redundant Wavelet Transform (RWT).

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2491 An Expert System Designed to Be Used with MOEAs for Efficient Portfolio Selection

Authors: K. Metaxiotis, K. Liagkouras

Abstract:

This study presents an Expert System specially designed to be used with Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) for the solution of the portfolio selection problem. The validation of the proposed hybrid System is done by using data sets from Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany and FTSE 100 in UK. The performance of the proposed system is assessed in comparison with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII). The evaluation of the performance is based on different performance metrics that evaluate both the proximity of the solutions to the Pareto front and their dispersion on it. The results show that the proposed hybrid system is efficient for the solution of this kind of problems.

Keywords: Expert Systems, Multiobjective optimization, Evolutionary Algorithms, Portfolio Selection.

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2490 A Combined Fuzzy Decision Making Approach to Supply Chain Risk Assessment

Authors: P. Moeinzadeh, A. Hajfathaliha

Abstract:

Many firms implemented various initiatives such as outsourced manufacturing which could make a supply chain (SC) more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. So managing risk has become a critical component of SC management. Different types of SC vulnerability management methodologies have been proposed for managing SC risk, most offer only point-based solutions that deal with a limited set of risks. This research aims to reinforce SC risk management by proposing an integrated approach. SC risks are identified and a risk index classification structure is created. Then we develop a SC risk assessment approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) and the VIKOR methods under the fuzzy environment where the vagueness and subjectivity are handled with linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using FANP, risks weights are calculated and then inserted to the FVIKOR to rank the SC members and find the most risky partner.

Keywords: Analytic network process (ANP), Fuzzy sets, Supply chain risk management (SCRM), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR)

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2489 The Key Factors in Shipping Company’s Port Selection for Providing Their Supplies

Authors: Sedigheh Zarei

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to identify the key factors in shipping company’s port selection in order to providing their requirement. To identify and rank factors that play the main role in selecting port for providing the ship requirement, at the first step, data were collected via Semi-structured interviews, the aim was to generate knowledge on how shipping company select the port and suppliers for providing their needs. 37 port selection factors were chosen from the previous researches and field interviews and have been categorized into two groups of port's factor and the factors of services of suppliers companies. The current study adopts a questionnaire survey to the main shipping companies' operators in Iran. Their responses reveal that level of services of supplying companies and customs rules play the important role in selecting the ports. Our findings could affect decisions made by port authorities to consider that supporting the privet sections for ship chandelling business could have the best result in attracting ships.

Keywords: Port selection, ship supplier, ship chandler, provision.

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2488 Decision Support for the Selection of Electric Power Plants Generated from Renewable Sources

Authors: Aumnad Phdungsilp, Teeradej Wuttipornpun

Abstract:

Decision support based upon risk analysis into comparison of the electricity generation from different renewable energy technologies can provide information about their effects on the environment and society. The aim of this paper is to develop the assessment framework regarding risks to health and environment, and the society-s benefits of the electric power plant generation from different renewable sources. The multicriteria framework to multiattribute risk analysis technique and the decision analysis interview technique are applied in order to support the decisionmaking process for the implementing renewable energy projects to the Bangkok case study. Having analyses the local conditions and appropriate technologies, five renewable power plants are postulated as options. As this work demonstrates, the analysis can provide a tool to aid decision-makers for achieving targets related to promote sustainable energy system.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Bangkok, MultiattributeRisk Analysis, Renewable Energy Technology.

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2487 Development of a Project Selection Method on Information System Using ANP and Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Ingu Kim, Shangmun Shin, Yongsun Choi, Nguyen Manh Thang, Edwin R. Ramos, Won-Joo Hwang

Abstract:

Project selection problems on management information system (MIS) are often considered a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) for a solving method. These problems contain two aspects, such as interdependencies among criteria and candidate projects and qualitative and quantitative factors of projects. However, most existing methods reported in literature consider these aspects separately even though these two aspects are simultaneously incorporated. For this reason, we proposed a hybrid method using analytic network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in order to represent both aspects. We then propose a goal programming model to conduct an optimization for the project selection problems interpreted by a hybrid concept. Finally, a numerical example is conducted as verification purposes.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process (ANP), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Fuzzy Logic, Information System Project Selection, Goal Programming.

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2486 Issues in Procurement of Castings

Authors: T. Saarelainen, O. Piha, J. Orkas, P. E. Makkonen

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present current and future procedures in castings procurement. Differences in procurement are highlighted. The supplier selection criteria used in practice is compared to literature findings. Different trends related to supply chains are presented and it is described how they are reflected in reality to castings procurement. To fulfil the aim, interviews were conducted in nine companies using castings. It was found that largest casting users have the most subcontractor foundries and it is more typical that they have multiple suppliers for the same parts. Currently only two companies out of nine purchase castings outside Europe, but the others are also progressing in the same direction. The main reason is the need to lower purchasing costs. Another trend is that all companies want to buy cast components or sub-assemblies instead of raw castings from foundries. It was found that price is a main supplier selection criterion. All companies use competitive bidding in supplier selection.

Keywords: Casting, interview study, procurement, supplytrends.

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2485 Project Risk Management Techniques in Resource Allocation, Scheduling and Planning

Authors: Hossein Amoozad Khalili, Anahita Maleki

Abstract:

Normally business changes are made in order to change a level of activity in some way, whether it is sales, cash flow, productivity, or product portfolio. When attempts are made to make such changes, too often the business reverts to the old levels of activity as soon as management attention is diverted. Risk management is a field of growing interest to project managers as well as in general business and organizational management. There are several approaches used to manage risk in projects and this paper is a brief outline of some that you might encounter, with an indication of their strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords: Risk Management, Project Management, Scheduling, Planning

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2484 Decision Support System for Suppliers

Authors: Babak Tashakori Bafghi, Laleh Tashakori, Reza Allahyari Soeini, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Supplier selection is a multi criteria decision-making process that comprises tangible and intangible factors. The majority of previous supplier selection techniques do not consider strategic perspective. Besides, uncertainty is one of the most important obstacles in supplier selection. For the first, time in this paper, the idea of the algorithm " Knapsack " is used to select suppliers Moreover, an attempt has to be made to take the advantage of a simple numerical method for solving model .This is an innovation to resolve any ambiguity in choosing suppliers. This model has been tried in the suppliers selected in a competitive environment and according to all desired standards of quality and quantity to show the efficiency of the model, an industry sample has been uses.

Keywords: Knapsack, linear programming, supplier select, supply chain management.

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