Search results for: Risk evaluation

Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

Abstract:

This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: Wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction.

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Authors: S. Samanta, D. Datta, S. S. Gautam

Abstract:

In this paper, quantitative evaluation of ultrasonic Cscan images through estimation of their Fractal Dimension (FD) is discussed. Necessary algorithm for evaluation of FD of any 2-D digitized image is implemented by developing a computer code. For the evaluation purpose several C-scan images of the Kevlar composite impacted by high speed bullet and glass fibre composite having flaw in the form of inclusion is used. This analysis automatically differentiates a C-scan image showing distinct damage zone, from an image that contains no such damage.

Keywords: C-scan, Impact, Fractal Dimension, Kevlar composite and Inclusion Flaw

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Authors: Dilek Özdemir, Gül Tekin Temur

Abstract:

In Supply Chain Management (SCM), strengthening partnerships with suppliers is a significant factor for enhancing competitiveness. Hence, firms increasingly emphasize supplier evaluation processes. Supplier evaluation systems are basically developed in terms of criteria such as quality, cost, delivery, and flexibility. Because there are many variables to be analyzed, this process becomes hard to execute and needs expertise. On this account, this study aims to develop an expert system on supplier evaluation process by designing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that is supported with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The methods are applied on the data of 24 suppliers, which have longterm relationships with a medium sized company from German Iron and Steel Industry. The data of suppliers consists of variables such as material quality (MQ), discount of amount (DOA), discount of cash (DOC), payment term (PT), delivery time (DT) and annual revenue (AR). Meanwhile, the efficiency that is generated by using DEA is added to the supplier evaluation system in order to use them as system outputs.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), DataEnvelopment Analysis (DEA), Supplier Evaluation System.

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Authors: Dae Gon Woo, Han Sung Kim, Dohyung Lim, Dong Jin Seo, In Deok Kong, Chang Yong Ko

Abstract:

Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGID) affect millions of people spread all age regardless of race and sex. Emotional stress and obesity have been associated with increased reporting of gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, but the relationship between FGID and risk factors (emotional stress or obesity) is unclear. Our aim was to assess the changes of the mechanical characteristics on the gastrointestinal tracts of the mentally fatigued obese and normal rat models. Finally, using the physical characteristics with micro-indentation test, we made a close investigation into the relation between FGID and risk factors quantitatively.

Keywords: Functional gastrointestinal disorders, Risk Factors, Mechanical Characteristics, Gastrointestinal Tract.

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Authors: Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Alberto De Marco

Abstract:

The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and techniques for managing risk in several industries has been sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have been made available for the construction industry. Based on such body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector. Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the paper provides some important guidelines for future research regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for PRM software tools development and improvement.

Keywords: Construction industry, Project risk management, Software tools, Survey study.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this research, the Balkan peninsula countries' developmental integration into European Union represents the strategic economic development objectives of the countries in the region. In order to objectively analyze the level of economic development competition of Balkan Peninsula countries, the mathematical compromise programming technique of multicriteria evaluation is used in this ranking problem. The primary aim of this research is to explain the role and significance of the multicriteria method evaluation using a real example of compromise solutions. Using the mathematical compromise programming technique, twelve countries of the Balkan Peninsula are economically evaluated and mutually compared. The economic development evaluation of the countries is performed according to five evaluation criteria forming the basis for economic development evaluation. The multiattribute model is solved using the mathematical compromise programming technique for producing different Pareto solutions. The results obtained by the multicriteria evaluation gives the possibility of identification and evaluation of the most eminent economic development indicators for each country separately. Finally, in this way, the proposed method has proved to be a successful model for the evaluation of the Balkan peninsula countries' economic development competition.

Keywords: Balkan peninsula countries, standard deviation, multicriteria decision making, mathematical compromise programming, multicriteria decision making, multicriteria analysis, multicriteria decision analysis.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

Abstract:

In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: S. A. Nta

Abstract:

Application of health risk assessment methods is important in order to comprehend the risk of human exposure to heavy metals and other dangerous pollutants. Four soil samples were collected at distances of 10, 20, 30 m and the control 100 m away from the dump site at depths of 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 m. The collected soil samples were examined for Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Ni using standard methods. The health risks via the main pathways of human exposure to heavy metal were detected using relevant standard equations. Hazard quotient was calculated to determine non-carcinogenic health risk for each individual heavy metal. Life time cancer risk was calculated to determine the cumulative life cancer rating for each exposure pathway. The estimated health risk values for adults and children were generally lower than the reference dose. The calculated hazard quotient for the ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways were less than unity. This means that there is no detrimental concern to the health on human exposure to heavy metals in contaminated soil. The life time cancer risk 5.4 × 10^-2 was higher than the acceptable threshold value of 1 × 10^-4 which is reflected to have significant health effects on human exposure to heavy metals in contaminated soil. Good hygienic practices are recommended to ease the potential risk to children and adult who are exposed to contaminated soils. Also, the local authorities should be made aware of such health risks for the purpose of planning the management strategy accordingly.

Keywords: Health risk assessment, pollution, heavy metals, soil.

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Authors: Mihai Caramihai, Irina Severin

Abstract:

Despite the extensive use of eLearning systems, there is no consensus on a standard framework for evaluating this kind of quality system. Hence, there is only a minimum set of tools that can supervise this judgment and gives information about the course content value. This paper presents two kinds of quality set evaluation indicators for eLearning courses based on the computational process of three known metrics, the Euclidian, Hamming and Levenshtein distances. The “distance" calculus is applied to standard evaluation templates (i.e. the European Commission Programme procedures vs. the AFNOR Z 76-001 Standard), determining a reference point in the evaluation of the e-learning course quality vs. the optimal concept(s). The case study, based on the results of project(s) developed in the framework of the European Programme “Leonardo da Vinci", with Romanian contractors, try to put into evidence the benefits of such a method.

Keywords: eLearning, European programme, metrics, quality evaluation

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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Authors: Kamalendu Pal

Abstract:

This paper describes the main features of a knowledge-based system evaluation method. System evaluation is placed in the context of a hybrid legal decision-support system, Advisory Support for Home Settlement in Divorce (ASHSD). Legal knowledge for ASHSD is represented in two forms, as rules and previously decided cases. Besides distinguishing the two different forms of knowledge representation, the paper outlines the actual use of these forms in a computational framework that is designed to generate a plausible solution for a given case, by using rule-based reasoning (RBR) and case-based reasoning (CBR) in an integrated environment. The nature of suitability assessment of a solution has been considered as a multiple criteria decision-making process in ASHAD evaluation. The evaluation was performed by a combination of discussions and questionnaires with different user groups. The answers to questionnaires used in this evaluations method have been measured as a fuzzy linguistic term. The finding suggests that fuzzy linguistic evaluation is practical and meaningful in knowledge-based system development purpose. 

Keywords: Case-based reasoning, decision-support system, fuzzy linguistic term, rule-based reasoning, system evaluation.

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

Abstract:

This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: Accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE.

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Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

Abstract:

Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

Abstract:

Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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Authors: Marco Bötel, Tobias Gelau, Wendelin Gross

Abstract:

Supply chain networks are frequently hit by unplanned events which lead to disruptions and cause operational and financial consequences. It is neither possible to avoid disruption risk entirely, nor are network members able to prepare for every possible disruptive event. Therefore a continuity planning should be set up which supports effective operational responses in supply chain networks in times of emergencies. In this research network related degrees of freedom which determine the options for responsive actions are derived from interview data. The findings are further embedded into a common risk management process. The paper provides support for researchers and practitioners to identify the network related options for responsive actions and to determine the need for improving the reaction capabilities.

Keywords: Supply Chain Risk Management, Business Continuity Planning, Degrees of Freedom, Risk Management Process, Mitigation Measures.

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

Abstract:

For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: Human vulnerabilities, human security, inert-immediate, material-immaterial, timespace.

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Authors: A.R Alesaadi, M. Nafar, A.H. Gheisari

Abstract:

In this paper sensitivity analysis is performed for reliability evaluation of power systems. When examining the reliability of a system, it is useful to recognize how results change as component parameters are varied. This knowledge helps engineers to understand the impact of poor data, and gives insight on how reliability can be improved. For these reasons, a sensitivity analysis can be performed. Finally, a real network was used for testing the presented method.

Keywords: sensitivity analysis, reliability evaluation, powersystems.

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Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

Abstract:

This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

Abstract:

Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: Perceived risk, consumer protection, online shopping, Saudi Arabia, online contracts, e-commerce.

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Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

Abstract:

This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: Conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management.

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Authors: Heungsu Lee, Youngseok Kim, Jonghwa Yi, Chul Park

Abstract:

A landing pier is subjected to safety assessment by visual inspection and design data, but it is difficult to check the damage in real-time. In this study, real - time damage detection and safety evaluation methods were studied. As a result of structural analysis of the arbitrary landing pier structure, the inflection point of deformation and moment occurred at 10%, 50%, and 90% of pile length. The critical value of Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensor was set according to the safety factor, and the FBG sensor application method for real - time safety evaluation was derived.

Keywords: FBG sensor, harbor structure, maintenance, safety evaluation system.

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Authors: Jędrzej Minda

Abstract:

In aviation a very narrow spectrum of control inceptors exists, namely centre-sticks, side-sticks, pedals and yokes. However, new types of aircraft are emerging and with them a need for new inceptors. A manned multicopter created at AGH University of Science and Technology is an aircraft in which the pilot takes a specific orientation in which classical inceptors may be impractical to use. In this paper unique kind of control inceptor is described, which aims to provide a handling quality not unlike standard solutions and provide a firm grip point for the pilot without the risk of involuntary stick movement. Simulations of pilot-inceptor model were performed in order to compare dynamic amplification factors of design described in this paper with classical one. Functional prototype is built on which drone pilots carried out a comfort of use evaluation. This paper provides a general overview of the project, including literature review, reasoning behind components selection and mechanism design finalized by conclusions.

Keywords: Mechanisms, mechatronics, embedded control, serious gaming, rescue missions, rescue robotics.

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Authors: Ong Sing Goh, C. Ardil, Wilson Wong, Chun Che Fung

Abstract:

The evaluation of conversational agents or chatterbots question answering systems is a major research area that needs much attention. Before the rise of domain-oriented conversational agents based on natural language understanding and reasoning, evaluation is never a problem as information retrieval-based metrics are readily available for use. However, when chatterbots began to become more domain specific, evaluation becomes a real issue. This is especially true when understanding and reasoning is required to cater for a wider variety of questions and at the same time to achieve high quality responses. This paper discusses the inappropriateness of the existing measures for response quality evaluation and the call for new standard measures and related considerations are brought forward. As a short-term solution for evaluating response quality of conversational agents, and to demonstrate the challenges in evaluating systems of different nature, this research proposes a blackbox approach using observation, classification scheme and a scoring mechanism to assess and rank three example systems, AnswerBus, START and AINI.

Keywords: Evaluation, conversational agents, Response Quality, chatterbots

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Authors: Toan Vu Duc, Son Ha Viet

Abstract:

This research presents the first comprehensive survey of congener profiles (7 indicator congeners) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in sediment samples covering ten sites in CauBay River, Vietnam. Chemical analyses were carried out in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for tri- to hepta- brominated congeners. Results pointed out a non-homogenous contamination of the sediment with ∑₇ PBDE values ranging from 8.93 to 25.64ng g⁻¹, reflecting moderate to low contamination closely in conformity to other Asian aquatic environments. The general order of decreasing congener contribution to the total load was: BDE 47 > 99 > 100 > 154, similar to the distribution pattern worldwide. PBDEs had rare risks in the sediment of studied area.  However, due to the propensity of PBDEs to accumulate in various compartments of wildlife and human food webs, evaluation of biological tissues should be undertaken as a high priority. 

Keywords: Residue, Risk assessment, PBDEs, Sediment.

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Authors: Luis Teran, Aleksandar Drobnjak

Abstract:

The number of electronic participation (eParticipation) projects introduced by different governments and international organisations is considerably high and increasing. In order to have an overview of the development of these projects, various evaluation frameworks have been proposed. In this paper, a five-level participation model, which takes into account the advantages of the Social Web or Web 2.0, together with a quantitative approach for the evaluation of eParticipation projects is presented. Each participation level is evaluated independently, taking into account three main components: Web evolution, media richness, and communication channels. This paper presents the evaluation of a number of existing Voting Advice Applications (VAAs). The results provide an overview of the main features implemented by each project, their strengths and weaknesses, and the participation levels reached.

Keywords: Evaluation Framework, eParticipation, e-Participation, Electronic Participation, eDemocracy, e-Democracy, Electronic Democracy, Voting Advice Applications, VAAs.

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Authors: V. Boguslauskas, G. Jakstonyte, L. Giriunas

Abstract:

Many foreign and Lithuanian scientists, analyzing the evaluation of the tax system in respect of the burden of taxation, agree that the latter, in principle, depends on how many individuals and what units of the residents constitute a household. Therefore, the aim of scientific research is to substantiate or to deny the significance of a household, but not a resident, as a statistical unit, during the evaluation of tax system, to be precise, determination of the value of the burden of taxation. A performed scientific research revealed that evaluation of the tax system in respect of a household, but not a resident, as a statistical unit, allows not only to evaluate the efficiency of the tax system more objectively, but also to forecast practicably existing poverty line, burden of taxation, and to capacitate the initiation of efficient decisions in social and tax fields creating the environment of existence.

Keywords: burden of taxation, household, tax systemevaluation.

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

Abstract:

In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: Client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis, decision tree.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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Authors: D. Jakovčević, M. Mihelja Žaja

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.

Keywords: Insurance cycle, insurance risks, combined ratio, Republic of Croatia.

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Authors: Goh Ong Sing, C. Ardil, Wilson Wong, Shahrin Sahib

Abstract:

The evaluation of the question answering system is a major research area that needs much attention. Before the rise of domain-oriented question answering systems based on natural language understanding and reasoning, evaluation is never a problem as information retrieval-based metrics are readily available for use. However, when question answering systems began to be more domains specific, evaluation becomes a real issue. This is especially true when understanding and reasoning is required to cater for a wider variety of questions and at the same time achieve higher quality responses The research in this paper discusses the inappropriateness of the existing measure for response quality evaluation and in a later part, the call for new standard measures and the related considerations are brought forward. As a short-term solution for evaluating response quality of heterogeneous systems, and to demonstrate the challenges in evaluating systems of different nature, this research presents a black-box approach using observation, classification scheme and a scoring mechanism to assess and rank three example systems (i.e. AnswerBus, START and NaLURI).

Keywords: Evaluation, question answering, response quality.

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