Search results for: Posterior predictive probability.

Authors: Libor Zachoval, Daire O Broin, Oisin Cawley

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E-learning platforms, such as Blackboard have two major shortcomings: limited data capture as a result of the limitations of SCORM (Shareable Content Object Reference Model), and lack of incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms which could lead to better course adaptations. With the recent development of Experience Application Programming Interface (xAPI), a large amount of additional types of data can be captured and that opens a window of possibilities from which online education can benefit. In a corporate setting, where companies invest billions on the learning and development of their employees, some learner behaviours can be troublesome for they can hinder the knowledge development of a learner. Behaviours that hinder the knowledge development also raise ambiguity about learner’s knowledge mastery, specifically those related to gaming the system. Furthermore, a company receives little benefit from their investment if employees are passing courses without possessing the required knowledge and potential compliance risks may arise. Using xAPI and rules derived from a state-of-the-art review, we identified three learner behaviours, primarily related to guessing, in a corporate compliance course. The identified behaviours are: trying each option for a question, specifically for multiple-choice questions; selecting a single option for all the questions on the test; and continuously repeating tests upon failing as opposed to going over the learning material. These behaviours were detected on learners who repeated the test at least 4 times before passing the course. These findings suggest that gauging the mastery of a learner from multiple-choice questions test scores alone is a naive approach. Thus, next steps will consider the incorporation of additional data points, knowledge estimation models to model knowledge mastery of a learner more accurately, and analysis of the data for correlations between knowledge development and identified learner behaviours. Additional work could explore how learner behaviours could be utilised to make changes to a course. For example, course content may require modifications (certain sections of learning material may be shown to not be helpful to many learners to master the learning outcomes aimed at) or course design (such as the type and duration of feedback).

Keywords: Compliance Course, Corporate Training, Learner Behaviours, xAPI.

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Authors: Lucie Côté, Martin Lauzier, Guy Beauchamp, France Guertin

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Stress causes deleterious effects to the physical, psychological and organizational levels, which highlight the need to use effective coping strategies to deal with it. Several coping models exist, but they don’t integrate the different strategies in a coherent way nor do they take into account the new research on the emotional coping and acceptance of the stressful situation. To fill these gaps, an integrative model incorporating the main coping strategies was developed. This model arises from the review of the scientific literature on coping and from a qualitative study carried out among workers with low or high levels of stress, as well as from an analysis of clinical cases. The model allows one to understand under what circumstances the strategies are effective or ineffective and to learn how one might use them more wisely. It includes Specific Strategies in controllable situations (the Modification of the Situation and the Resignation-Disempowerment), Specific Strategies in non-controllable situations (Acceptance and Stubborn Relentlessness) as well as so-called General Strategies (Wellbeing and Avoidance). This study is intended to undertake and present the process of development and validation of an instrument to measure coping strategies based on this model. An initial pool of items has been generated from the conceptual definitions and three expert judges have validated the content. Of these, 18 items have been selected for a short form questionnaire. A sample of 300 students and employees from a Quebec university was used for the validation of the questionnaire. Concerning the reliability of the instrument, the indices observed following the inter-rater agreement (Krippendorff’s alpha) and the calculation of the coefficients for internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) are satisfactory. To evaluate the construct validity, a confirmatory factor analysis using MPlus supports the existence of a model with six factors. The results of this analysis suggest also that this configuration is superior to other alternative models. The correlations show that the factors are only loosely related to each other. Overall, the analyses carried out suggest that the instrument has good psychometric qualities and demonstrates the relevance of further work to establish predictive validity and reconfirm its structure. This instrument will help researchers and clinicians better understand and assess coping strategies to cope with stress and thus prevent mental health issues.

Keywords: Acceptance, coping strategies, measurement instrument, questionnaire, stress, validation process.

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar, Jatan Talati

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This paper is an attempt to develop an Integrated Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) for a smart city project in Western India. Integrated transportation is one of the enablers of smart transportation for providing a seamless intercity as well as regional level transportation experience. The success of a smart city project at the city level for transportation is providing proper integration to different mass rapid transit modes by way of integrating information, physical, network of routes fares, etc. The methodology adopted for this study was primary data research through questionnaire survey. The respondents of the questionnaire survey have responded on the issues about their perceptions on the ways and means to improve public transport services in urban cities. The respondents were also required to identify the factors and attributes which might motivate more people to shift towards the public mode. Also, the respondents were questioned about the factors which they feel might restrain the integration of various modes of MRTS. Furthermore, this study also focuses on developing a utility equation for respondents with the help of multiple linear regression analysis and its probability to shift to public transport for certain factors listed in the questionnaire. It has been observed that for shifting to public transport, the most important factors that need to be considered were travel time saving and comfort rating. Also, an Integrated MRTS can be obtained by combining metro rail with BRTS, metro rail with monorail, monorail with BRTS and metro rail with Indian railways. Providing a common smart card to transport users for accessing all the different available modes would be a pragmatic solution towards integration of the available modes of MRTS.

Keywords: Mass rapid transit systems, smart city, metro rail, bus rapid transit system, multiple linear regression, smart card, automated fare collection system.

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Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

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The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, digital twin, Generalised Additive Model, Power Consumption Model.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, D. D. Askerov, C. Ardil, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

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Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows drawing conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stageby- stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.

Keywords: aviation gas turbine engine, technical condition, fuzzy logic, neural networks, fuzzy statistics

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Authors: Irene Perez-Alfaro, Nieves Murillo, Carlos Bernal, Daniel Gil-Hernandez

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Nowadays, the increasing applicability of internet of things (IoT) systems has changed the way that the world around is perceived. The massive interconnection of systems by means of sensing, processing and communication, allows multitude of data to be at our fingertips. In this way, countless advances have been made in different fields such as personal care, predictive maintenance in industry, quality control in production processes, security, and in everything imaginable. However, all these electronic systems have in common the need to be electrically powered. In this context, batteries and wires are the most commonly used solutions, but they are not a definitive solution in some applications, because of the attainability, the serviceability, or the performance requirements. Therefore, the need arises to look for other types of solutions based on energy harvesting and long-life electronics. Energy Harvesting can be defined as the action of capturing energy from the environment and store it for an instantaneous use or later use. Among the materials capable of harvesting energy from the environment, such as thermoelectrics, electromagnetics, photovoltaics or triboelectrics, the most suitable is the piezoelectric material. The phenomenon of piezoelectricity is one of the most powerful sources for energy harvesting, ranging from a few micro wats to hundreds of wats, depending on certain factors such as material type, geometry, excitation frequency, mechanical and electrical configurations, among others. In this research work, an exhaustive study is carried out on how different types of piezoelectric materials and electrical configurations influence the maximum power that a bimorph harvester is able to extract from mechanical vibrations. A series of experiments has been carried out in which the manufactured bimorph specimens are excited under fixed inertial vibrational conditions. In addition, in order to evaluate the dependence of the maximum transferred power, different load resistors are tested. In this way, the pure active power that achieves the maximum power transfer can be approximated. In this paper, we present the design of low-cost energy harvesting solutions based on piezoelectric smart materials with tunable frequency. The results obtained show the differences in energy extraction between the PZT materials studied and their electrical configurations. The aim of this work is to gain a better understanding of the behavior of piezoelectric materials, and the design process of bimorph PZT harvesters to optimize environmental energy extraction.

Keywords: Bimorph harvesters, electrical impedance, energy harvesting, piezoelectric, smart material.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, C. Ardil, D. D. Askerov, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

Abstract:

In this paper is shown that the probability-statistic methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation gas turbine engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence is considered the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods. Training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. Thus for GTE technical condition more adequate model making are analysed dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients' changes. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows to draw conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. For checking of models adequacy is considered the Fuzzy Multiple Correlation Coefficient of Fuzzy Multiple Regression. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-bystage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine temperature condition was made.

Keywords: Gas turbine engines, neural networks, fuzzy logic, fuzzy statistics.

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

Abstract:

Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: Accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding.

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: Structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, mixing approaches, point estimate method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: G. Disciglio, G. Gatta, F. Lops, A. Libutti, A. Tarantino, E. Tarantino

Abstract:

The experimental trial was carried out in open field at Foggia district (Apulia Region, Southern Italy), during the spring-summer season 2014, in order to evaluate the effect of four biostimulant products (RadiconÒ, Viormon plusÒ, LysodinÒ and SiaptonÒ 10L), compared with a control (no biostimulant), on the infestation of processing tomato crop (cv Dres) by the chlorophyll-lacking root parasite Phelipanche ramosa. Biostimulants consist in different categories of products (microbial inoculants, humic and fulvic acids, hydrolyzed proteins and aminoacids, seaweed extracts) which play various roles in plant growing, including the improvement of crop resistance and quali-quantitative characteristics of yield. The experimental trial was arranged according to a complete randomized block design with five treatments, each of one replicated three times. The processing tomato seedlings were transplanted on 5 May 2014. Throughout the crop cycle, P. ramosa infestation was assessed according to the number of emerged shoots (branched plants) counted in each plot, at 66, 78 and 92 day after transplanting. The tomato fruits were harvested at full-stage of maturity on 8 August 2014. From each plot, the marketable yield was measured and the quali-quantitative yield parameters (mean weight, dry matter content, colour coordinate, colour index and soluble solids content of the fruits) were determined. The whole dataset was tested according to the basic assumptions for the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the differences between the means were determined using Tukey’s tests at the 5% probability level. The results of the study showed that none of the applied biostimulants provided a whole control of Phelipanche, although some positive effects were obtained from their application. To this respect, the RadiconÒ appeared to be the most effective in reducing the infestation of this root-parasite in tomato crop. This treatment also gave the higher tomato yield.

Keywords: Biostimulants, control methods, Phelipanche ramosa, processing tomato crop.

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Authors: D. Goustouridis, A. Sideris, I. Sdrolias, G. Loizos, N.-Alexander Tatlas, S. M. Potirakis

Abstract:

Both daily and long-term management of a heavy-duty vehicles and construction machinery fleet is an extremely complicated and hard to solve issue. This is mainly due to the diversity of the fleet vehicles – machinery, which concerns not only the vehicle types, but also their age/efficiency, as well as the fleet volume, which is often of the order of hundreds or even thousands of vehicles/machineries. In the present paper we present “InteligentLogger”, a holistic heavy-duty fleet management system covering a wide range of diverse fleet vehicles. This is based on specifically designed hardware and software for the automated vehicle health status and operational cost monitoring, for smart maintenance. InteligentLogger is characterized by high adaptability that permits to be tailored to practically any heavy-duty vehicle/machinery (of different technologies -modern or legacy- and of dissimilar uses). Contrary to conventional logistic systems, which are characterized by raised operational costs and often errors, InteligentLogger provides a cost-effective and reliable integrated solution for the e-management and e-maintenance of the fleet members. The InteligentLogger system offers the following unique features that guarantee successful heavy-duty vehicles/machineries fleet management: (a) Recording and storage of operating data of motorized construction machinery, in a reliable way and in real time, using specifically designed Internet of Things (IoT) sensor nodes that communicate through the available network infrastructures, e.g., 3G/LTE; (b) Use on any machine, regardless of its age, in a universal way; (c) Flexibility and complete customization both in terms of data collection, integration with 3rd party systems, as well as in terms of processing and drawing conclusions; (d) Validation, error reporting & correction, as well as update of the system’s database; (e) Artificial intelligence (AI) software, for processing information in real time, identifying out-of-normal behavior and generating alerts; (f) A MicroStrategy based enterprise BI, for modeling information and producing reports, dashboards, and alerts focusing on vehicles– machinery optimal usage, as well as maintenance and scraping policies; (g) Modular structure that allows low implementation costs in the basic fully functional version, but offers scalability without requiring a complete system upgrade.

Keywords: E-maintenance, predictive maintenance, IoT sensor nodes, cost optimization, artificial intelligence, heavy-duty vehicles.

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Authors: Jenan Shakoor

Abstract:

Obesity prevalence is increasing worldwide. University life is a challenging period especially for students who have to leave their familiar surroundings and settle in a new environment. The current study aimed to assess the diet and exercise habits and their association with body mass index (BMI) among nursing college students living at Kirkuk University residence. This was a descriptive study. A non-probability (purposive) sample of 101 students living in Kirkuk University residence was recruited during the period from the 15^th November 2015 to the 5^th May 2016. A questionnaire was constructed for the purpose of the study which consisted of four parts: the demographic characteristics of the study sample, eating habits, eating at college and healthy habits. The data were collected by interviewing the study sample and the weight and height were measured by a trained researcher at the college. Descriptive statistical analysis was undertaken. Data were prepared, organized and entered into the computer file; the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS 20) was used for data analysis. A p value≤ 0.05 was accepted as statistical significant. A total of 63 (62.4%) of the sample were aged20-21with a mean age of 22.1 (SD±0.653). A third of the sample 38 (37.6%) were from level four at college, 67 (66.3%) were female and 46 45.5% of participants were from a middle socio-economic status. 14 (13.9%) of the study sample were overweight (BMI =25-29.9kg/m²) and 6 (5.9%) were obese (BMI≥30kg/m²) compared to 73 (72.3%) were of normal weight (BMI =18.5-24.9kg/m²). With regard to eating habits and exercise, 42 (41.6%) of the students rarely ate breakfast, 79 (78.2%) eat lunch at university residence, 77 (78.2%) of the students reported rarely doing exercise and 62 (61.4%) of them were sleeping for less than eight hours. No significant association was found between the variables age, sex, level of college and socio-economic status and BMI, while there was a significant association between eating lunch at university and BMI (p =0.03). No significant association was found between eating habits, healthy habits and BMI. The prevalence of overweight and obesity among the study sample was 19.8% with female students being more obese than males. Further studies are needed to identify BMI among residence students in other colleges and increasing the awareness of undergraduate students to healthy food habits.

Keywords: Body mass index, diet, obesity, university residence.

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: Decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques.

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Authors: Paola Lecca, Lorenzo Dematte

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Reactiondiffusion systems are mathematical models that describe how the concentration of one or more substances distributed in space changes under the influence of local chemical reactions in which the substances are converted into each other, and diffusion which causes the substances to spread out in space. The classical representation of a reaction-diffusion system is given by semi-linear parabolic partial differential equations, whose general form is ÔêétX(x, t) = DΔX(x, t), where X(x, t) is the state vector, D is the matrix of the diffusion coefficients and Δ is the Laplace operator. If the solute move in an homogeneous system in thermal equilibrium, the diffusion coefficients are constants that do not depend on the local concentration of solvent and of solutes and on local temperature of the medium. In this paper a new stochastic reaction-diffusion model in which the diffusion coefficients are function of the local concentration, viscosity and frictional forces of solvent and solute is presented. Such a model provides a more realistic description of the molecular kinetics in non-homogenoeus and highly structured media as the intra- and inter-cellular spaces. The movement of a molecule A from a region i to a region j of the space is described as a first order reaction Ai k- → Aj , where the rate constant k depends on the diffusion coefficient. Representing the diffusional motion as a chemical reaction allows to assimilate a reaction-diffusion system to a pure reaction system and to simulate it with Gillespie-inspired stochastic simulation algorithms. The stochastic time evolution of the system is given by the occurrence of diffusion events and chemical reaction events. At each time step an event (reaction or diffusion) is selected from a probability distribution of waiting times determined by the specific speed of reaction and diffusion events. Redi is the software tool, developed to implement the model of reaction-diffusion kinetics and dynamics. It is a free software, that can be downloaded from http://www.cosbi.eu. To demonstrate the validity of the new reaction-diffusion model, the simulation results of the chaperone-assisted protein folding in cytoplasm obtained with Redi are reported. This case study is redrawing the attention of the scientific community due to current interests on protein aggregation as a potential cause for neurodegenerative diseases.

Keywords: Reaction-diffusion systems, Fick's law, stochastic simulation algorithm.

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

Abstract:

Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: Border of the universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps.

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Authors: Kaniknun Photchong, Phusit Phukamchanoad

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to study the people’s level of participation in activities of the community, their satisfaction towards the community, the attachment they have to the community, factors that influence the attachment, as well as the characteristics of the relationships of military families’ of the Royal Guards community of Dusit District. The method used was non-probability sampling by quota sampling according to people’s age. The determined age group was 18 years or older.

One set of a sample group was done per family. The questionnaires were conducted by 287 people. Snowball sampling was also used by interviewing people of the community, starting from the Royal Guards Community’s leader, then by 20 of the community’s well-respected persons. The data was analyzed by using descriptive statistics, such as arithmetic mean and standard deviation, as well as by inferential statistics, such as Independent - Samples T test (T-test), One-Way ANOVA (F-test), Chi-Square. Descriptive analysis according to the structure of the interview content was also used. The results of the research is that the participation of the population in the Royal Guards Community in various activities is at a medium level, with the average participation level during Mother’s and Father’s Days. The people’s general level of satisfaction towards the premises of the Royal Guards Community is at the highest level.

The people were most satisfied with the transportation within the community and in contacting with people from outside the premises. The access to the community is convenient and there are various entrances. The attachment of the people to the Royal Guards Community in general and by each category is at a high level. The feeling that the community is their home rated the highest average. Factors that influence the attachment of the people of the Royal Guards Community are age, status, profession, income, length of stay in the community, membership of social groups, having neighbors they feel close and familiar with, and as well as the benefits they receive from the community. In addition, it was found that people that participate in activities have a high level of positive relationship towards the attachment of the people to the Royal Guards Community. The satisfaction of the community has a very high level of positive relationship with the attachment of the people to the Royal Guards Community.

The characteristics of the attachment of military families’ is that they live in big houses that everyone has to protect and care for, starting from the leader of the family as well as all members. Therefore, they all love the community they live in. The characteristics that show the participation of activities within the community and the high level of satisfaction towards the premises of the community will enable the people to be more attached to the community. The people feel that everyone is close neighbors within the community, as if they are one big family.

Keywords: Activities, Attachment, Community, Royal Guards, Satisfaction.

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Authors: G. Feletti, D. Tedesco, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a dashboard of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) to enhance information and predictive capabilities in Emergency Medical Services (EMS) systems, supporting both operational and strategic decisions of different actors. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of revision of the technical-scientific literature concerning the indicators currently in use for the performance measurement of EMS. It emerges that current studies focus on two distinct areas and independent objectives: the ambulance service, a fundamental component of pre-hospital health treatment, and the patient care in the Emergency Department (ED). Conversely, the perspective proposed by this study is to consider an integrated view of the ambulance service process and the ED process, both essential to ensure high quality of care and patient safety. Thus, the proposal covers the end-to-end healthcare service process and, as such, allows considering the interconnection between the two EMS processes, the pre-hospital and hospital ones, connected by the assignment of the patient to a specific ED. In this way, it is possible to optimize the entire patient management. Therefore, attention is paid even to EMS aspects that in current literature tend to be neglected or underestimated. In particular, the integration of the two processes enables to evaluate the advantage of an ED selection decision having visibility on EDs’ saturation status and therefore considering, besides the distance, the available resources and the expected waiting times. Starting from a critical review of the KPIs proposed in extant literature, the design of the dashboard was carried out: the high number of analyzed KPIs was reduced by eliminating firstly the ones not in line with the aim of the study and then the ones supporting a similar functionality. The KPIs finally selected were tested on a realistic dataset, which draw us to exclude additional indicators due to unavailability of data required for their computation. The final dashboard, that was discussed and validated by experts in the field, includes a variety of KPIs able to support operational and planning decisions, early warning, and citizens’ awareness on EDs accessibility in real time. The association of each KPI to the EMS phase it refers to enabled the design of a well-balanced dashboard, covering both efficiency and effectiveness performance objectives of the entire EMS process. Indeed, just the initial phases related to the interconnection between ambulance service and patient care are covered by traditional KPIs. Future developments could be directed to building a hierarchical dashboard, composed by a high-level minimal set of KPIs for measuring the basic performance of the EMS system, at an aggregate level, and lower levels of KPIs that bring additional and more detailed information on specific performance dimensions or EMS phases.

Keywords: Emergency Medical Services, Key Performance Indicators, Dashboard, Decision Support.

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Authors: S. Moustafa El Shanawany, I. Labib Salem, F. Mohamed Magdy Badr El Dine, H. Tag El Deen Abd Allah

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Thermal injuries remain a global health problem and a common issue encountered in forensic pathology. They are a devastating cause of morbidity and mortality in children and adults especially in developing countries, causing permanent disfigurement, scarring and grievous hurt. Burns have always been a matter of legal concern in cases of suicidal burns, self-inflicted burns for false accusation and homicidal attempts. Assessment of burn injuries as well as rating permanent disabilities and disfigurement following thermal injuries for the benefit of compensation claims represents a challenging problem. This necessitates the development of reliable scoring systems to yield an expected likelihood of permanent disability or fatal outcome following burn injuries. The study was designed to identify the risk factors of mortality in acute burn patients and to evaluate the applicability of FLAMES (Fatality by Longevity, APACHE II score, Measured Extent of burn, and Sex) and BOBI (Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury) model scores in predicting the outcome. The study was conducted on 100 adult patients with acute burn injuries admitted to the Burn Unit of Alexandria Main University Hospital, Egypt from October 2014 to October 2015. Victims were examined after obtaining informed consent and the data were collected in specially designed sheets including demographic data, burn details and any associated inhalation injury. Each burn patient was assessed using both BOBI and FLAMES scoring systems. The results of the study show the mean age of patients was 35.54±12.32 years. Males outnumbered females (55% and 45%, respectively). Most patients were accidently burnt (95%), whereas suicidal burns accounted for the remaining 5%. Flame burn was recorded in 82% of cases. As well, 8% of patients sustained more than 60% of total burn surface area (TBSA) burns, 19% of patients needed mechanical ventilation, and 19% of burnt patients died either from wound sepsis, multi-organ failure or pulmonary embolism. The mean length of hospital stay was 24.91±25.08 days. The mean BOBI score was 1.07±1.27 and that of the FLAMES score was -4.76±2.92. The FLAMES score demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.95 which was significantly higher than that of the BOBI score (0.883). A statistically significant association was revealed between both predictive models and the outcome. The study concluded that both scoring systems were beneficial in predicting mortality in acutely burnt patients. However, the FLAMES score could be applied with a higher level of accuracy.

Keywords: BOBI, Burns, FLAMES, scoring systems, outcome.

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Authors: M. S. Alatas, H. D. Umucalilar

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SARA is a common and serious metabolic disorder in early lactation in dairy cattle and in finishing beef cattle, caused by diets with high inclusion of cereal grain. This experiment was performed to determine the efficacy of Megasphaera elsdenii, a major lactate-utilizing bacterium in prevention/treatment of SARA in vivo. In vivo experimentation, it was used eight ruminally cannulated rams and it was applied the rapid adaptation with the mixture of grain based on wheat (80% wheat, 20% barley) and barley (80% barley, 20% wheat). During the systematic adaptation, it was followed the probability of SARA formation by being measured the rumen pH with two hours intervals after and before feeding. After being evaluated the data, it was determined the ruminal pH ranged from 5.2-5.6 on the condition of feeding with 60 percentage of grain mixture based on barley and wheat, that assured the definite form of subacute acidosis. In four days SARA period, M. elsdenii (1010 cfu ml-1) was inoculated during the first two days. During the SARA period, it was observed the decrease of feed intake with M. elsdenii inoculation. Inoculation of M. elsdenii was caused to differentiation of rumen pH (P<0.0001), while it was found the pH level approximately 5.55 in animals applied the inoculation, it was 5.63 pH in other animals. It was observed that total VFA with the bacterium inoculation tended to change in terms of grain feed (P<0.07). It increased with the effect of total VFA inoculation in barley based diet, but it was more stabilized in wheat based diet. Bacterium inoculation increased the ratio of propionic acid (18.33%-21.38%) but it caused to decrease the butyric acid, and acetic/propionic acid. During the rapid adaptation, the concentration of lactic acid in the rumen liquid increased depending upon grain level (P<0.0001). On the other hand bacterium inoculation did not have an effect on concentration of lactic acid. M. elsdenii inoculation did not affect ruminal ammonia concentration. In the group that did not apply inoculation, the level of ruminal ammonia concentration was higher than the others applied inoculation. M. elsdenii inoculation did not changed protozoa count in barley-based diet whereas it decreased in wheat-based diet. When it is generally evaluated, it is seen that M. elsdenii inoculation has not a positive impact on rumen parameters. Therefore, to reveal the full impact of the inoculation with different strains, feedstuffs and animal groups, further research is required.

Keywords: In vivo, subactute ruminal acidosis, Megasphaera elsdenii, rumen fermentation.

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Authors: Adel S. Alanazi

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The transition of a student with a disability from school to work is the most crucial phase while moving from the stage of adolescence into early adulthood. In this process, young individuals face various difficulties and challenges in order to accomplish the next venture of life successfully. In this respect, this paper aims to examine the challenges encountered by the individuals with intellectual disabilities in transition to work in Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, this study has undertaken a qualitative research-based methodology; wherein interpretivist philosophy has been followed along with inductive approach and exploratory research design. The data for the research has been gathered with the help of semi-structured interviews, whose findings are analysed with the help of thematic analysis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with parents of persons with intellectual disabilities, officials, supervisors and specialists of two vocational rehabilitation centres providing training to intellectually disabled students, in addition to that, directors of companies and websites in hiring those individuals. The total number of respondents for the interview was 15. The purposive sampling method was used to select the respondents for the interview. This sampling method is a non-probability sampling method which draws respondents from a known population and allows flexibility and suitability in selecting the participants for the study. The findings gathered from the interview revealed that the lack of awareness among their parents regarding the rights of their children who are intellectually disabled; the lack of adequate communication and coordination between various entities; concerns regarding their training and subsequent employment are the key difficulties experienced by the individuals with intellectual disabilities. Training in programmes such as bookbinding, carpentry, computing, agriculture, electricity and telephone exchange operations were involved as key training programmes. The findings of this study also revealed that information technology and media were playing a significant role in smoothing the transition to employment of individuals with intellectual disabilities. Furthermore, religious and cultural attitudes have been identified to be restricted for people with such disabilities in seeking advantages from job opportunities. On the basis of these findings, it can be implied that the information gathered through this study will serve to be highly beneficial for Saudi Arabian schools/ rehabilitation centres for individuals with intellectual disability to facilitate them in overcoming the problems they encounter during the transition to work.

Keywords: Intellectual disability, transition services, rehabilitation centre.

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Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

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Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: Expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis.

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Authors: Márcia Afonso, Marisa Dinis-Almeida, Cristina Fael

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Climate change, namely precipitation patterns alteration, has led to extreme conditions such as floods and droughts. In turn, excessive construction has led to the waterproofing of the soil, increasing the surface runoff and decreasing the groundwater recharge capacity. The permeable pavements used in areas with low traffic lead to a decrease in the probability of floods peaks occurrence and the sediments reduction and pollutants transport, ensuring rainwater quality improvement. This study aims to evaluate the porous asphalt performance, developed in the laboratory, with addition of cellulosic fibres. One of the main objectives of cellulosic fibres use is to stop binder drainage, preventing its loss during storage and transport. Comparing to the conventional porous asphalt the cellulosic fibres addition improved the porous asphalt performance. The cellulosic fibres allowed the bitumen content increase, enabling retention and better aggregates coating and, consequently, a greater mixture durability. With this solution, it is intended to develop better practices of resilience and adaptation to the extreme climate changes and respond to the sustainability current demands, through the eco-friendly materials use. The mix design was performed for different size aggregates (with fine aggregates – PA1 and with coarse aggregates – PA2). The percentage influence of the fibres to be used was studied. It was observed that overall, the binder drainage decreases as the cellulose fibres percentage increases. It was found that the PA2 mixture obtained most binder drainage relative to PA1 mixture, irrespective of the fibres percentage used. Subsequently, the performance was evaluated through laboratory tests of indirect tensile stiffness modulus, water sensitivity, permeability and permanent deformation. The stiffness modulus for the two mixtures groups (with and without cellulosic fibres) presented very similar values between them. For the water sensitivity test it was observed that porous asphalt containing more fine aggregates are more susceptible to the water presence than mixtures with coarse aggregates. The porous asphalt with coarse aggregates have more air voids which allow water to pass easily leading to ITSR higher values. In the permeability test was observed that asphalt porous without cellulosic fibres presented had lower permeability than asphalt porous with cellulosic fibres. The resistance to permanent deformation results indicates better behaviour of porous asphalt with cellulosic fibres, verifying a bigger rut depth in porous asphalt without cellulosic fibres. In this study, it was observed that porous asphalt with bitumen higher percentages improve the performance to permanent deformation. This fact was only possible due to the bitumen retention by the cellulosic fibres.

Keywords: Binder drainage, cellulosic fibres, permanent deformation, porous asphalt.

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Authors: Naeleh Motamedi, Masoud Mahmoudkhan Shirazi, Nima Nouraei

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Natural disasters, including earthquake, kill many people around the world every year. Society rescue actions, which start after the earthquake and are called LAST in abbreviation, include locating, access, stabilization and transportation. In the present article, we have studied the process of local accessibility to the injured and transporting them to health care centers. With regard the heavy traffic load due to earthquake, the destruction of connecting roads and bridges and the heavy debris in alleys and street, which put the lives of the injured and the people buried under the debris in danger, accelerating the rescue actions and facilitating the accessibilities are of great importance, obviously. Tehran, the capital of Iran, is among the crowded cities in the world and is the center of extensive economic, political, cultural and social activities. Tehran has a population of about 9.5 millions and because of the immigration of people from the surrounding cities. Furthermore, considering the fact that Tehran is located on two important and large faults, a 6 Richter magnitude earthquake in this city could lead to the greatest catastrophe during the entire human history. The present study is a kind of review and a major part of the required information for it, has been obtained from libraries all of the rescue vehicles around the world, including rescue helicopters, ambulances, fire fighting vehicles and rescue boats, and their applied technology, and also the robots specifically designed for the rescue system and the advantages and disadvantages of them, have been investigated. The studies show that there is a significant relationship between the rescue team-s arrival time at the incident zone and the number of saved people; so that, if the duration of burial under debris 30 minutes, the probability of survival is %99.3, after a day is %81, after 2days is %19 and after 5days is %7.4. The exiting transport systems all have some defects. If these defects are removed, more people could be saved each hour and the preparedness against natural disasters is increased. In this study, transport system has been designed for the rescue team and the injured; which could carry the rescue team to the incident zone and the injured to the health care centers. In addition, this system is able to fly in the air and move on the earth as well; so that the destruction of roads and the heavy traffic load could not prevent the rescue team from arriving early at the incident zone. The system also has the equipment required firebird for debris removing, optimum transport of the injured and first aid.

Keywords: earthquake, accelerating, accessibilities transportation, rescue system

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Authors: Anne-Margré C. Vink

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Background. Food-related allergies and intolerances are frequently occurring in dogs. Diagnosis and monitoring according ‘Golden Standard’ of elimination efficiency is, however, time consuming, expensive, and requires expert clinical setting. In order to facilitate rapid and robust, quantitative testing of intolerance, and determining the individual offending foods, a serological test is implicated for Alimentary Induced Diseases and manifestations. Method. As we developed Medisynx IgG Human Screening Test ELISA before and the dog’ immune system is most similar to humans, we were able to develop Medisynx IgG Dog Screening Test ELISA as well. In this randomized, double-blind, split-sample, retro perspective study 47 dogs suffering from Canine Atopic Dermatitis (CAD) and several secondary induced reactions were included to participate in serological Medisynx IgG Dog Screening Test ELISA (within < 0,02 % SD). Results were expressed as titers relative to the standard OD readings to diagnose alimentary induced diseases and monitoring efficacy of an individual eliminating diet in dogs. Split sample analysis was performed by independently sending 2 times 3 ml serum under two unique codes. Results. The veterinarian monitored these dogs to check dog’ results at least at 3, 7, 21, 49, 70 days and after period of 6 and 12 months on an individual negative diet and a positive challenge (retrospectively) at 6 months. Data of each dog were recorded in a screening form and reported that a complete recovery of all clinical manifestations was observed at or less than 70 days (between 50 and 70 days) in the majority of dogs (44 out of 47 dogs =93.6%). Conclusion. Challenge results showed a significant result of 100% in specificity as well as 100% positive predicted value. On the other hand, sensitivity was 95,7% and negative predictive value was 95,7%. In conclusion, an individual diet based on IgG ELISA in dogs provides a significant improvement of atopic dermatitis and pruritus including all other non-specific defined allergic skin reactions as erythema, itching, biting and gnawing at toes, as well as to several secondary manifestations like chronic diarrhoea, chronic constipation, otitis media, obesity, laziness or inactive behaviour, pain and muscular stiffness causing a movement disorders, excessive lacrimation, hyper behaviour, nervous behaviour and not possible to stay alone at home, anxiety, biting and aggressive behaviour and disobedience behaviour. Furthermore, we conclude that a relatively more severe systemic candidiasis, as shown by relatively higher titer (class 3 and 4 IgG reactions to Candida albicans), influence the duration of recovery from clinical manifestations in affected dogs. These findings are consistent with our preliminary human clinical studies.

Keywords: Allergy, canine atopic dermatitis (CAD), food allergens, IgG-ELISA, food-incompatibility.

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Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: Growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises.

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Authors: Anuruddha Jayasuriya, Thanakorn Pheeraphan

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In this paper, a review of different mathematical models which can be used as prediction tools to assess the time to crack reinforced concrete (RC) due to corrosion is investigated. This investigation leads to an experimental study to validate a selected prediction model. Most of these mathematical models depend upon the mechanical behaviors, chemical behaviors, electrochemical behaviors or geometric aspects of the RC members during a corrosion process. The experimental program is designed to verify the accuracy of a well-selected mathematical model from a rigorous literature study. Fundamentally, the experimental program exemplifies both one-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared slab elements of 500 mm by 500 mm and two-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared column elements of 225 mm by 225 mm by 500 mm. Each set consists of three water-to-cement ratios (w/c); 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and two cover depths; 25 mm and 50 mm. 12 mm bars are used for column elements and 16 mm bars are used for slab elements. All the samples are subjected to accelerated chloride corrosion in a chloride bath of 5% (w/w) sodium chloride (NaCl) solution. Based on a pre-screening of different models, it is clear that the well-selected mathematical model had included mechanical properties, chemical and electrochemical properties, nature of corrosion whether it is accelerated or natural, and the amount of porous area that rust products can accommodate before exerting expansive pressure on the surrounding concrete. The experimental results have shown that the selected model for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional chloride diffusion had ±20% and ±10% respective accuracies compared to the experimental output. The half-cell potential readings are also used to see the corrosion probability, and experimental results have shown that the mass loss is proportional to the negative half-cell potential readings that are obtained. Additionally, a statistical analysis is carried out in order to determine the most influential factor that affects the time to corrode the reinforcement in the concrete due to chloride diffusion. The factors considered for this analysis are w/c, bar diameter, and cover depth. The analysis is accomplished by using Minitab statistical software, and it showed that cover depth is the significant effect on the time to crack the concrete from chloride induced corrosion than other factors considered. Thus, the time predictions can be illustrated through the selected mathematical model as it covers a wide range of factors affecting the corrosion process, and it can be used to predetermine the durability concern of RC structures that are vulnerable to chloride exposure. And eventually, it is further concluded that cover thickness plays a vital role in durability in terms of chloride diffusion.

Keywords: Accelerated corrosion, chloride diffusion, corrosion cracks, passivation layer, reinforcement corrosion.

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Authors: Pedro Llanos, Diego García

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This paper is addressed to expanding our understanding of the effects of hypoxia training on our bodies to better model its dynamics and leverage some of its implications and effects on human health. Hypoxia training is a recommended practice for military and civilian pilots that allow them to recognize their early hypoxia signs and symptoms, and Scientist Astronaut Candidates (SACs) who underwent hypobaric hypoxia (HH) exposure as part of a training activity for prospective suborbital flight applications. This observational-analytical study describes physiologic responses and symptoms experienced by a SAC group before, during and after HH exposure and proposes a model for assessing predicted versus observed physiological responses. A group of individuals with diverse Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM) backgrounds conducted a hypobaric training session to an altitude up to 22,000 ft (FL220) or 6,705 meters, where heart rate (HR), breathing rate (BR) and core temperature (Tc) were monitored with the use of a chest strap sensor pre and post HH exposure. A pulse oximeter registered levels of saturation of oxygen (SpO₂), number and duration of desaturations during the HH chamber flight. Hypoxia symptoms as described by the SACs during the HH training session were also registered. This data allowed to generate a preliminary predictive model of the oxygen desaturation and O₂ pressure curve for each subject, which consists of a sixth-order polynomial fit during exposure, and a fifth or fourth-order polynomial fit during recovery. Data analysis showed that HR and BR showed no significant differences between pre and post HH exposure in most of the SACs, while Tc measures showed slight but consistent decrement changes. All subjects registered SpO₂ greater than 94% for the majority of their individual HH exposures, but all of them presented at least one clinically significant desaturation (SpO₂ < 85% for more than 5 seconds) and half of the individuals showed SpO₂ below 87% for at least 30% of their HH exposure time. Finally, real time collection of HH symptoms presented temperature somatosensory perceptions (SP) for 65% of individuals, and task-focus issues for 52.5% of individuals as the most common HH indications. 95% of the subjects experienced HH onset symptoms below FL180; all participants achieved full recovery of HH symptoms within 1 minute of donning their O₂ mask. The current HH study performed on this group of individuals suggests a rapid and fully reversible physiologic response after HH exposure as expected and obtained in previous studies. Our data showed consistent results between predicted versus observed SpO₂ curves during HH suggesting a mathematical function that may be used to model HH performance deficiencies. During the HH study, real-time HH symptoms were registered providing evidenced SP and task focusing as the earliest and most common indicators. Finally, an assessment of HH signs of symptoms in a group of heterogeneous, non-pilot individuals showed similar results to previous studies in homogeneous populations of pilots.

Keywords: Altitude sickness, cabin pressure, hypobaric chamber training, symptoms and altitude, slow onset hypoxia.

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Authors: Milada Krejci, Martin Hill, Vaclav Hosek, Dobroslava Jandova, Jiri Kajzar, Pavel Blaha

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The paper declares effects of exercise intervention of the research project “Basic research of balance changes in seniors”, granted by the Czech Science Foundation. The objective of the presented study is to define predictors, which influence bio-psycho-social consequences and effects of balance ability in senior 65 years old and above. We focused on the Fall-Efficacy Scale changes evaluation in seniors. Comprehensive hypothesis of the project declares, that motion uncertainty (dyskinesia) can negatively affect the well-being of a senior in bio-psycho-social context. In total, random selection and testing of 100 seniors (30 males, 70 females) from Prague and Central Bohemian region was provided. The sample was divided by stratified random selection into experimental and control groups, who underwent input and output testing. For diagnostics the methods of Medical Anamnesis, Functional anthropological examinations, Tinetti Balance Assessment Tool, SF-36 Health Survey, Anamnestic comparative self-assessment scale were used. Intervention method called "Life in Balance" based on yoga techniques was applied in four-week cycle. Results of multivariate regression were verified by repeated measures ANOVA: subject factor, phase of intervention (between-subject factor), body fluid (within-subject factor) and phase of intervention × body fluid interaction). ANOVA was performed with a repetition involving the factors of subjects, experimental/control group, phase of intervention (independent variable), and x phase interaction followed by Bonferroni multiple comparison assays with a test strength of at least 0.8 on the probability level p < 0.05. In the paper results of the first-year investigation of the three years running project are analysed. Results of balance tests confirmed no significant difference between females and males in pre-test. Significant improvements in balance and walking ability were observed in experimental group in females comparing to males (F = 128.4, p < 0.001). In the females control group, there was no significant change in post- test, while in the female experimental group positive changes in posture and spine flexibility in post-tests were found. It seems that females even in senior age react better to incentives of intervention in balance and spine flexibility. On the base of results analyses, we can declare the significant improvement in social balance markers after intervention in the experimental group (F = 10.5, p < 0.001). In average, seniors are used to take four drugs daily. Number of drugs can contribute to allergy symptoms and balance problems. It can be concluded that static balance and walking ability of seniors according Tinetti Balance scale correlate significantly with psychic and social monitored markers.

Keywords: Exercises, balance, seniors 65+, health, mental and social balance.

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Authors: P. C. Kutschera, Elena C. Tesoro, Mary Grace Talamera-Sandico, Jose Maria G. Pelayo III

Abstract:

Second generation military Filipino Amerasians comprise a formidable contemporary segment of the estimated 250,000-plus biracial Amerasians in the Philippines today. Overall, they are a stigmatized and socioeconomically marginalized diaspora; historically, they were abandoned or estranged by U.S. military personnel fathers assigned during the century-long Colonial, Post- World War II and Cold War Era of permanent military basing (1898- 1992). Indeed, U.S. military personnel are assigned in smaller numbers in the Philippines today. This inquiry is an outgrowth of two recent small sample studies. The first surfaced the impact of the U.S. military prostitution system on formation of the ‘Derivative Amerasian Family Construct’ on first generation Amerasians; a second, qualitative case study suggested the continued effect of the prostitution systems' destructive impetuous on second generation Amerasians. The intent of this current qualitative, multiple-case study was to actively seek out second generation sex industry toilers. The purpose was to focus further on this human phenomenon in the postbasing and post-military prostitution system eras. As background, the former military prostitution apparatus has transformed into a modern dynamic of rampant sex tourism and prostitution nationwide. This is characterized by hotel and resorts offering unrestricted carnal access, urban and provincial brothels (casas), discos, bars and pickup clubs, massage parlors, local barrio karaoke bars and street prostitution. A small case study sample (N = 4) of female and male second generation Amerasians were selected. Sample formation employed a non-probability ‘snowball’ technique drawing respondents from the notorious Angeles, Metro Manila, Olongapo City ‘AMO Amerasian Triangle’ where most former U.S. military installations were sited and modern sex tourism thrives. A six-month study and analysis of in-depth interviews of female and male sex laborers, their families and peers revealed a litany of disturbing, and troublesome experiences. Results showed profiles of debilitating human poverty, history of family disorganization, stigmatization, social marginalization and the ghost of the military prostitution system and its harmful legacy on Amerasian family units. Emerging were testimonials of wayward young people ensnared in a maelstrom of deep economic deprivation, familial dysfunction, psychological desperation and societal indifference. The paper recommends that more study is needed and implications of unstudied psychosocial and socioeconomic experiences of distressed younger generations of military Amerasians require specific research. Heretofore apathetic or disengaged U.S. institutions need to confront the issue and formulate activist and solution-oriented social welfare, human services and immigration easement policies and alternatives. These institutions specifically include academic and social science research agencies, corporate foundations, the U.S. Congress, and Departments of State, Defense and Health and Human Services, and Homeland Security (i.e. Citizen and Immigration Services) It is them who continue to endorse a laissez-faire policy of non-involvement over the entire Filipino Amerasian question. Such apathy, the paper concludes, relegates this consequential but neglected blood progeny to the status of humiliating destitution and exploitation. Amerasians; thus, remain entrapped in their former colonial, and neo-colonial habitat. Ironically, they are unwitting victims of a U.S. American homeland that fancies itself geo-politically as a strong and strategic military treaty ally of the Philippines in the Western Pacific.

Keywords: Asian Americans, Filipino Amerasians, diaspora, military prostitution, stigmatization.

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