Search results for: Mathematical model of wind energy system
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Paper Count: 15383

Search results for: Mathematical model of wind energy system

203 Personnel Selection Based on Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis and Multi-Objective Optimization on the Basis of Ratio Analysis Methods

Authors: Emre Ipekci Cetin, Ebru Tarcan Icigen

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Personnel selection process is considered as one of the most important and most difficult issues in human resources management. At the stage of personnel selection, the applicants are handled according to certain criteria, the candidates are dealt with, and efforts are made to select the most appropriate candidate. However, this process can be more complicated in terms of the managers who will carry out the staff selection process. Candidates should be evaluated according to different criteria such as work experience, education, foreign language level etc. It is crucial that a rational selection process is carried out by considering all the criteria in an integrated structure. In this study, the problem of choosing the front office manager of a 5 star accommodation enterprise operating in Antalya is addressed by using multi-criteria decision-making methods. In this context, SWARA (Step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis) and MOORA (Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of ratio analysis) methods, which have relatively few applications when compared with other methods, have been used together. Firstly SWARA method was used to calculate the weights of the criteria and subcriteria that were determined by the business. After the weights of the criteria were obtained, the MOORA method was used to rank the candidates using the ratio system and the reference point approach. Recruitment processes differ from sector to sector, from operation to operation. There are a number of criteria that must be taken into consideration by businesses in accordance with the structure of each sector. It is of utmost importance that all candidates are evaluated objectively in the framework of these criteria, after these criteria have been carefully selected in the selection of suitable candidates for employment. In the study, staff selection process was handled by using SWARA and MOORA methods together.

Keywords: Accommodation establishments, human resource management, MOORA, multi criteria decision making, SWARA.

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202 The Effect of Nutrition Education on Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet and Sustainable Healthy Eating Behaviors in University Students

Authors: Tuba Tekin, Nurcan Baglam, Emine Dincer

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This study aimed to examine the effects of nutrition education received by university students on sustainable healthy eating behaviors and adherence to the Mediterranean diet. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-grade university students studying at the Faculty of Health Sciences, Nutrition and Dietetics, Midwifery, Nursing, Physical Therapy, and Rehabilitation departments of universities in Turkey were included in the study. Students' adherence to the Mediterranean diet was evaluated using the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Scale, and their sustainable and healthy eating behaviors were evaluated using the Sustainable and Healthy Eating Behaviors Scale. In addition, the body weight and height of the students were measured by the researchers, and the Body Mass Index (BMI) value was calculated. A total of 181 students, 85 of whom were studying in the Department of Nutrition and Dietetics and 96 of whom were educated in other departments, were included in the study; 75.7% of the students in the sample are female, while 24.3% are male. The average body weight of the students was 61.17 ± 10.87 kg, and the average BMI was 22.04 ± 3.40 kg/m2. While the mean score of the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Scale was 6.72 ± 1.84, in the evaluation of adherence to the Mediterranean diet, it was determined that 25.4% of the students had poor adherence and 66.9% needed improvement. When the adherence scores of students who received and did not receive nutrition education were compared, it was discovered that the students who received nutrition education had a higher score (p < 0.05). Students who received nutrition education had a higher total score on the Sustainable and Healthy Eating Behaviors scale (p < 0.05). A moderately positive correlation was found between the Sustainable and Healthy Eating Behaviors scale total score and the Mediterranean Diet Adherence scores (p < 0.05). As a result of the linear regression analysis, it was revealed that a 1-unit increase in the Mediterranean diet adherence score would result in a 1.3-point increase in the total score of the Sustainable and Healthy Eating Behaviors scale. Sustainable and healthy diets are important for improving and developing health and the prevention of diseases. The Mediterranean diet is defined as a sustainable diet model. The findings revealed the relationship between the Mediterranean diet and sustainable nutrition and showed that nutrition education increased knowledge and awareness about sustainable nutrition and increased adherence to the Mediterranean diet. For this reason, courses or seminars on sustainable nutrition can be organized during educational periods.

Keywords: Healthy eating, Mediterranean diet, nutrition education, sustainable nutrition.

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201 Identification of Flexographic-printed Newspapers with NIR Spectral Imaging

Authors: Raimund Leitner, Susanne Rosskopf

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Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is a widely used method for material identification for laboratory and industrial applications. While standard spectrometers only allow measurements at one sampling point at a time, NIR Spectral Imaging techniques can measure, in real-time, both the size and shape of an object as well as identify the material the object is made of. The online classification and sorting of recovered paper with NIR Spectral Imaging (SI) is used with success in the paper recycling industry throughout Europe. Recently, the globalisation of the recycling material streams caused that water-based flexographic-printed newspapers mainly from UK and Italy appear also in central Europe. These flexo-printed newspapers are not sufficiently de-inkable with the standard de-inking process originally developed for offset-printed paper. This de-inking process removes the ink from recovered paper and is the fundamental processing step to produce high-quality paper from recovered paper. Thus, the flexo-printed newspapers are a growing problem for the recycling industry as they reduce the quality of the produced paper if their amount exceeds a certain limit within the recovered paper material. This paper presents the results of a research project for the development of an automated entry inspection system for recovered paper that was jointly conducted by CTR AG (Austria) and PTS Papiertechnische Stiftung (Germany). Within the project an NIR SI prototype for the identification of flexo-printed newspaper has been developed. The prototype can identify and sort out flexoprinted newspapers in real-time and achieves a detection accuracy for flexo-printed newspaper of over 95%. NIR SI, the technology the prototype is based on, allows the development of inspection systems for incoming goods in a paper production facility as well as industrial sorting systems for recovered paper in the recycling industry in the near future.

Keywords: spectral imaging, imaging spectroscopy, NIR, waterbasedflexographic, flexo-printed, recovered paper, real-time classification.

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200 Human Factors Considerations in New Generation Fighter Planes to Enhance Combat Effectiveness

Authors: Chitra Rajagopal, Indra Deo Kumar, Ruchi Joshi, Binoy Bhargavan

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Role of fighter planes in modern network centric military warfare scenarios has changed significantly in the recent past. New generation fighter planes have multirole capability of engaging both air and ground targets with high precision. Multirole aircraft undertakes missions such as Air to Air combat, Air defense, Air to Surface role (including Air interdiction, Close air support, Maritime attack, Suppression and Destruction of enemy air defense), Reconnaissance, Electronic warfare missions, etc. Designers have primarily focused on development of technologies to enhance the combat performance of the fighter planes and very little attention is given to human factor aspects of technologies. Unique physical and psychological challenges are imposed on the pilots to meet operational requirements during these missions. Newly evolved technologies have enhanced aircraft performance in terms of its speed, firepower, stealth, electronic warfare, situational awareness, and vulnerability reduction capabilities. This paper highlights the impact of emerging technologies on human factors for various military operations and missions. Technologies such as ‘cooperative knowledge-based systems’ to aid pilot’s decision making in military conflict scenarios as well as simulation technologies to enhance human performance is also studied as a part of research work. Current and emerging pilot protection technologies and systems which form part of the integrated life support systems in new generation fighter planes is discussed. System safety analysis application to quantify the human reliability in military operations is also studied.

Keywords: Combat effectiveness, emerging technologies, human factors, systems safety analysis.

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199 Multi-Sensor Image Fusion for Visible and Infrared Thermal Images

Authors: Amit Kr. Happy

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This paper is motivated by the importance of multi-sensor image fusion with specific focus on Infrared (IR) and Visible image (VI) fusion for various applications including military reconnaissance. Image fusion can be defined as the process of combining two or more source images into a single composite image with extended information content that improves visual perception or feature extraction. These images can be from different modalities like Visible camera & IR Thermal Imager. While visible images are captured by reflected radiations in the visible spectrum, the thermal images are formed from thermal radiation (IR) that may be reflected or self-emitted. A digital color camera captures the visible source image and a thermal IR camera acquires the thermal source image. In this paper, some image fusion algorithms based upon Multi-Scale Transform (MST) and region-based selection rule with consistency verification have been proposed and presented. This research includes implementation of the proposed image fusion algorithm in MATLAB along with a comparative analysis to decide the optimum number of levels for MST and the coefficient fusion rule. The results are presented, and several commonly used evaluation metrics are used to assess the suggested method's validity. Experiments show that the proposed approach is capable of producing good fusion results. While deploying our image fusion algorithm approaches, we observe several challenges from the popular image fusion methods. While high computational cost and complex processing steps of image fusion algorithms provide accurate fused results, but they also make it hard to become deployed in system and applications that require real-time operation, high flexibility and low computation ability. So, the methods presented in this paper offer good results with minimum time complexity.

Keywords: Image fusion, IR thermal imager, multi-sensor, Multi-Scale Transform.

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198 Effects of Irrigation Scheduling and Soil Management on Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield in Guinea Savannah Zone of Nigeria

Authors: I. Alhassan, A. M. Saddiq, A. G. Gashua, K. K. Gwio-Kura

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The main objective of any irrigation program is the development of an efficient water management system to sustain crop growth and development and avoid physiological water stress in the growing plants. Field experiment to evaluate the effects of some soil moisture conservation practices on yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of maize was carried out in three locations (i.e. Mubi and Yola in the northern Guinea Savannah and Ganye in the southern Guinea Savannah of Adamawa State, Nigeria) during the dry seasons of 2013 and 2014. The experiment consisted of three different irrigation levels (7, 10 and 12 day irrigation intervals), two levels of mulch (mulch and un-mulched) and two tillage practices (no tillage and minimum tillage) arranged in a randomized complete block design with split-split plot arrangement and replicated three times. The Blaney-Criddle method was used for measuring crop evapotranspiration. The results indicated that seven-day irrigation intervals and mulched treatment were found to have significant effect (P>0.05) on grain yield and water use efficiency in all the locations. The main effect of tillage was non-significant (P<0.05) on grain yield and WUE. The interaction effects of irrigation and mulch were significant (P>0.05) on grain yield and WUE at Mubi and Yola. Generally, higher grain yield and WUE were recorded on mulched and seven-day irrigation intervals, whereas lower values were recorded on un-mulched with 12-day irrigation intervals. Tillage exerts little influence on the yield and WUE. Results from Ganye were found to be generally higher than those recorded in Mubi and Yola; it also showed that an irrigation interval of 10 days with mulching could be adopted for the Ganye area, while seven days interval is more appropriate for Mubi and Yola.

Keywords: Irrigation, maize, mulching, tillage, guinea savannah.

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197 Megalopolisation: An Effect of Large Scale Urbanisation in Post-Reform China

Authors: Siqing Chen

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Megalopolis is a group of densely populated metropolitan areas that combine to form an urban complex. Since China introduced the economic reforms in late 1970s, the Chinese urban system has experienced unprecedented growth. The process of urbanisation prevailed in the 1980s, and the process of predominantly large city growth appeared to continue through 1990s and 2000s. In this study, the magnitude and pattern of urbanisation in China during 1990s were examined using remotely sensed imagery acquired by TM/ETM+ sensor onboard the Landsat satellites. The development of megalopolis areas in China was also studied based on the GIS analysis of the increases of urban and built-up area from 1990 to 2000. The analysis suggests that in the traditional agricultural zones in China, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, Changjiang River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Sichuan Basin, the urban and built-up areas increased by 1.76 million hectares, of which 0.82 million hectares are expansion of urban areas, an increase of 24.78% compared with 1990 at the national scale. The Yellow River Delta, Changjiang River Delta and Pearl River Delta also saw an increase of urban and built-up area by 63.9%, 66.2% and 83.0% respectively. As a result, three major megalopolises were developed in China: the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong- Macau (Pearl River Delta: PRD) megalopolis area, the Shanghai- Nanjing-Hangzhou (Changjiang River Delta: CRD) megalopolis area and the Beijing-Tianjing-Tangshan-Qinhuangdao (Yellow River Delta-Bohai Sea Ring: YRD) megalopolis area. The relationship between the processed of megalopolisation and the inter-provincial population flow was also explored in the context of social-economic and transport infrastructure development in Post-reform China.

Keywords: Megalopolisation, Land use change, Spatial analysis, Post-reform China

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196 An Ergonomic Evaluation of Three Load Carriage Systems for Reducing Muscle Activity of Trunk and Lower Extremities during Giant Puppet Performing Tasks

Authors: Cathy SW. Chow, Kristina Shin, Faming Wang, B. C. L. So

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During some dynamic giant puppet performances, an ergonomically designed load carrier system is necessary for the puppeteers to carry a giant puppet body’s heavy load with minimum muscle stress. A load carrier (i.e. prototype) was designed with two small wheels on the foot; and a hybrid spring device on the knee in order to assist the sliding and knee bending movements respectively. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of three load carriers including two other commercially available load mounting systems, Tepex and SuitX, and the prototype. Ten male participants were recruited for the experiment. Surface electromyography (sEMG) was used to collect the participants’ muscle activities during forward moving and bouncing and with and without load of 11.1 kg that was 60 cm above the shoulder. Five bilateral muscles including the lumbar erector spinae (LES), rectus femoris (RF), bicep femoris (BF), tibialis anterior (TA), and gastrocnemius (GM) were selected for data collection. During forward moving task, the sEMG data showed smallest muscle activities by Tepex harness which exhibited consistently the lowest, compared with the prototype and SuitX which were significantly higher on left LES 68.99% and 64.99%, right LES 26.57% and 82.45%; left RF 87.71% and 47.61%, right RF 143.57% and 24.28%; left BF 80.21% and 22.23%, right BF 96.02% and 21.83%; right TA 6.32% and 4.47%; left GM 5.89% and 12.35% respectively. The result above reflected mobility was highly restricted by tested exoskeleton devices. On the other hand, the sEMG data from bouncing task showed the smallest muscle activities by prototype which exhibited consistently the lowest, compared with the Tepex harness and SuitX which were significantly lower on lLES 6.65% and 104.93, rLES 23.56% and 92.19%; lBF 33.21% and 93.26% and rBF 24.70% and 81.16%; lTA 46.51% and 191.02%; rTA 12.75% and 125.76%; IGM 31.54% and 68.36%; rGM 95.95% and 96.43% respectively.

Keywords: Exoskeleton, load carriage aid, giant puppet performers, electromyography.

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195 Impact of Revenue Reform on Vulnerable Communities in Tonga

Authors: Pauliasi Tony Fakahau

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This paper provides an overview of the impact of the revenue reform programme on vulnerable communities in the Kingdom of Tonga. Economic turmoil and mismanagement during the late 1990s forced the government to seek technical and financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank to undertake a comprehensive Economic and Public Sector Reform (EPSR) programme. The EPSR is a Western model recommended by donor agencies as the solution to Tonga’s economic challenges. The EPSR programme included public sector reform, private sector growth, and revenue generation. Tax reform was the main tool for revenue generation, which set out to strengthen tax compliance and administration as well as implement a value-added consumption tax. The EPSR is based on Western values and ideology but failed to recognise that Tongan cultural values are important to the local community. Two participant groups were interviewed. Participant group one consisted of 51 people representing vulnerable communities. Participant group two consisted of six people from the government and business sector who were from the elite of Tongan society. The Kakala Research Methodology provided the framework for the research, and the Talanoa Research Method was used to conduct semi-structured interviews in the homes of the first group and in the workplaces of the second group. The research found a heavy burden of the consumption tax on the purchasing power of participant group one (vulnerable participants), having an impact on nearly every financial transaction they made. Participant group one’s main financial priorities were kavenga fakalotu (obligations to the church), kavenga fakafāmili (obligations to the family) and kavenga fakafonua (obligations to cultural events for the village, nobility, and royalty). The findings identified inequalities of the revenue reform, especially from consumption tax, for vulnerable people and communities compared to the elite of society. The research concluded that government and donor agencies need ameliorating policies to reduce the burden of tax on vulnerable groups more susceptible to the impact of revenue reform.

Keywords: Tax reform, Tonga vulnerable community revenue, revenue reform, public sector reform.

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194 Classifying Turbomachinery Blade Mode Shapes Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Ismail Abubakar, Hamid Mehrabi, Reg Morton

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Currently, extensive signal analysis is performed in order to evaluate structural health of turbomachinery blades. This approach is affected by constraints of time and the availability of qualified personnel. Thus, new approaches to blade dynamics identification that provide faster and more accurate results are sought after. Generally, modal analysis is employed in acquiring dynamic properties of a vibrating turbomachinery blade and is widely adopted in condition monitoring of blades. The analysis provides useful information on the different modes of vibration and natural frequencies by exploring different shapes that can be taken up during vibration since all mode shapes have their corresponding natural frequencies. Experimental modal testing and finite element analysis are the traditional methods used to evaluate mode shapes with limited application to real live scenario to facilitate a robust condition monitoring scheme. For a real time mode shape evaluation, rapid evaluation and low computational cost is required and traditional techniques are unsuitable. In this study, artificial neural network is developed to evaluate the mode shape of a lab scale rotating blade assembly by using result from finite element modal analysis as training data. The network performance evaluation shows that artificial neural network (ANN) is capable of mapping the correlation between natural frequencies and mode shapes. This is achieved without the need of extensive signal analysis. The approach offers advantage from the perspective that the network is able to classify mode shapes and can be employed in real time including simplicity in implementation and accuracy of the prediction. The work paves the way for further development of robust condition monitoring system that incorporates real time mode shape evaluation.

Keywords: Modal analysis, artificial neural network, mode shape, natural frequencies, pattern recognition.

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193 A Continuous Real-Time Analytic for Predicting Instability in Acute Care Rapid Response Team Activations

Authors: Ashwin Belle, Bryce Benson, Mark Salamango, Fadi Islim, Rodney Daniels, Kevin Ward

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A reliable, real-time, and non-invasive system that can identify patients at risk for hemodynamic instability is needed to aid clinicians in their efforts to anticipate patient deterioration and initiate early interventions. The purpose of this pilot study was to explore the clinical capabilities of a real-time analytic from a single lead of an electrocardiograph to correctly distinguish between rapid response team (RRT) activations due to hemodynamic (H-RRT) and non-hemodynamic (NH-RRT) causes, as well as predict H-RRT cases with actionable lead times. The study consisted of a single center, retrospective cohort of 21 patients with RRT activations from step-down and telemetry units. Through electronic health record review and blinded to the analytic’s output, each patient was categorized by clinicians into H-RRT and NH-RRT cases. The analytic output and the categorization were compared. The prediction lead time prior to the RRT call was calculated. The analytic correctly distinguished between H-RRT and NH-RRT cases with 100% accuracy, demonstrating 100% positive and negative predictive values, and 100% sensitivity and specificity. In H-RRT cases, the analytic detected hemodynamic deterioration with a median lead time of 9.5 hours prior to the RRT call (range 14 minutes to 52 hours). The study demonstrates that an electrocardiogram (ECG) based analytic has the potential for providing clinical decision and monitoring support for caregivers to identify at risk patients within a clinically relevant timeframe allowing for increased vigilance and early interventional support to reduce the chances of continued patient deterioration.

Keywords: Critical care, early warning systems, emergency medicine, heart rate variability, hemodynamic instability, rapid response team.

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192 The Role of Chemokine Family, CXCL-10 Urine as a Marker Diagnosis of Active Lung Tuberculosis in HIV/AIDS Patients

Authors: Dwitya Elvira, Raveinal Masri, Rohayat Bilmahdi

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Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) pandemic increased significantly worldwide. The rise in cases of HIV/AIDS was also followed by an increase in the incidence of opportunistic infection, with tuberculosis being the most opportunistic infection found in HIV/AIDS and the main cause of mortality in HIV/AIDS patients. Diagnosis of tuberculosis in HIV/AIDS patients is often difficult because of the uncommon symptom in HIV/AIDS patients compared to those without the disease. Thus, diagnostic tools are required that are more effective and efficient to diagnose tuberculosis in HIV/AIDS. CXCL-10/IP-10 is a chemokine that binds to the CXCR3 receptor found in HIV/AIDS patients with a weakened immune system. Tuberculosis infection in HIV/AIDS activates chemokine IP-10 in urine, which is used as a marker for diagnosis of infection. The aim of this study was to prove whether IP-10 urine can be a biomarker diagnosis of active lung tuberculosis in HIV-AIDS patients. Design of this study is a cross sectional study involving HIV/AIDS patients with lung tuberculosis as the subject of this study. Forty-seven HIV/AIDS patients with tuberculosis based on clinical and biochemical laboratory were asked to collect urine samples and IP-10/CXCL-10 urine being measured using ELISA method with 18 healthy human urine samples as control. Forty-seven patients diagnosed as HIV/AIDS were included as a subject of this study. HIV/AIDS were more common in male than in women with the percentage in male 85.1% vs. 14.5% of women. In this study, most diagnosed patients were aged 31-40 years old, followed by those 21-30 years, and > 40 years old, with one case diagnosed at age less than 20 years of age. From the result of the urine IP-10 using ELISA method, there was significant increase of the mean value of IP-10 urine in patients with TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection compared to the healthy control with mean 61.05 pg/mL ± 78.01 pg/mL vs. mean 17.2 pg/mL. Based on this research, there was significant increase of urine IP-10/CXCL-10 in active lung tuberculosis with HIV/AIDS compared to the healthy control. From this finding, it is necessary to conduct further research into whether urine IP-10/CXCL-10 plays a significant role in TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection, which can also be used as a biomarker in the early diagnosis of TB-HIV.

Keywords: Chemokine, IP-10 urine, HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis.

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191 An Open-Label Pilot Study of Efficacy and Safety of 2% Curcuma aeruginosa Roxb. Extract Cream in the Treatment of Mild to Moderate Facial Seborrheic Dermatitis

Authors: Kulaya Wimolwat, Panlop Chakravitthamrong, Neti Waranuch

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Background: Seborrheic dermatitis is a common chronic skin condition affecting the face, scalp, chest, and trunk. The cause of seborrheic dermatitis is still unknown. Sebum production, lipid composition, hormone levels, and Malassezia species have been suggested as important factors in the development of seborrheic dermatitis. Curcuma aeruginosa Roxb. extract-containing cream with anti-inflammatory and anti-androgenic properties may be beneficial for treating mild to moderate facial seborrheic dermatitis. Objectives: We evaluated the efficacy and safety of 2% C. aeruginosa Roxb. extract-containing cream in the treatment of mild to moderate seborrheic dermatitis. Methods: This was a prospective, open-label, and non-comparative study. Ten adult patients clinically diagnosed with mild to moderate seborrheic dermatitis were enrolled in a four-week study. The 2% C. aeruginosa Roxb. cream was applied twice daily to a lesional area on the face for four weeks. The Scoring Index (SI) ranking system on days 14 and 28 was compared with that at baseline to determine the efficacy of treatment. The adverse events (burning sensation and erythema) were evaluated on days 14 and 28 to determine the safety of the treatment. Results: Significant improvement was observed in the reduction of the mean SI at day 14 (2.9) and 28 (1.4) compared to that at baseline (4.9). An adverse reaction was observed on day 14 (mild erythema 20% and mild burning sensation 10%) and was resolved by the end of the study. Conclusion: This open-label pilot study has shown that there was a significant improvement in the severity in these seborrheic patients and most reported they were satisfied with it. Reported adverse events were all mild.

Keywords: Anti-androgenic, antifungals, anti-inflammatory, Curcuma aeruginosa, seborrheic dermatitis, efficacy, safety.

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190 The Effects of Placement and Cross-Section Shape of Shear Walls in Multi-Story RC Buildings with Plan Irregularity on Their Seismic Behavior by Using Nonlinear Time History Analyses

Authors: Mohammad Aminnia, Mahmood Hosseini

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Environmental and functional conditions, sometimes, necessitate the architectural plan of the building to be asymmetric, and this result in an asymmetric structure. In such cases finding an optimal pattern for locating the components of lateral load bearing system, including shear walls, in the building’s plan is desired. In case of shear wall in addition to the location the shape of the wall cross-section is also an effective factor. Various types of shear walls and their proper layout might come effective in better stiffness distribution and more appropriate seismic response of the building. Several studies have been conducted in the context of analysis and design of shear walls; however, few studies have been performed on making decisions for the location and form of shear walls in multistory buildings, especially those with irregular plan. In this study, an attempt has been made to obtain the most reliable seismic behavior of multi-story reinforced concrete vertically chamfered buildings by using more appropriate shear walls form and arrangement in 7-, 10-, 12-, and 15-stoy buildings. The considered forms and arrangements include common rectangular walls and L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan, located as the core or in the outer frames of the building structure. Comparison of seismic behaviors of the buildings, including maximum roof displacement and particularly formation of plastic hinges and their distribution in the buildings’ structures, have been done based on the results of a series of nonlinear time history analyses, by using a set of selected earthquake records. Results show that shear walls with U-shaped cross-section, placed as the building central core, and also walls with Z-shaped cross-section, placed at the corners give the building more reliable seismic behavior.

Keywords: Vertically chamfered buildings, non-linear time history analyses, L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan walls.

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189 Removal of Rhodamine B from Aqueous Solution Using Natural Clay by Fixed Bed Column Method

Authors: A. Ghribi, M. Bagane

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The discharge of dye in industrial effluents is of great concern because their presence and accumulation have a toxic or carcinogenic effect on living species. The removal of such compounds at such low levels is a difficult problem. The adsorption process is an effective and attractive proposition for the treatment of dye contaminated wastewater. Activated carbon adsorption in fixed beds is a very common technology in the treatment of water and especially in processes of decolouration. However, it is expensive and the powdered one is difficult to be separated from aquatic system when it becomes exhausted or the effluent reaches the maximum allowable discharge level. The regeneration of exhausted activated carbon by chemical and thermal procedure is also expensive and results in loss of the sorbent. The focus of this research was to evaluate the adsorption potential of the raw clay in removing rhodamine B from aqueous solutions using a laboratory fixed-bed column. The continuous sorption process was conducted in this study in order to simulate industrial conditions. The effect of process parameters, such as inlet flow rate, adsorbent bed height, and initial adsorbate concentration on the shape of breakthrough curves was investigated. A glass column with an internal diameter of 1.5 cm and height of 30 cm was used as a fixed-bed column. The pH of feed solution was set at 8.5. Experiments were carried out at different bed heights (5 - 20 cm), influent flow rates (1.6- 8 mL/min) and influent rhodamine B concentrations (20 - 80 mg/L). The obtained results showed that the adsorption capacity increases with the bed depth and the initial concentration and it decreases at higher flow rate. The column regeneration was possible for four adsorption–desorption cycles. The clay column study states the value of the excellent adsorption capacity for the removal of rhodamine B from aqueous solution. Uptake of rhodamine B through a fixed-bed column was dependent on the bed depth, influent rhodamine B concentration, and flow rate.

Keywords: Adsorption, Breakthrough curve, Clay, Fixed bed column, Rhodamine B, Regeneration.

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188 Ports and Airports: Gateways to Vector-Borne Diseases in Portugal Mainland

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Maria J. Alves, Sofia Cunha

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Vector-borne diseases are transmitted to humans by mosquitos, sandflies, bugs, ticks, and other vectors. Some are re-transmitted between vectors, if the infected human has a new contact when his levels of infection are high. The vector is infected for lifetime and can transmit infectious diseases not only between humans but also from animals to humans. Some vector borne diseases are very disabling and globally account for more than one million deaths worldwide. The mosquitoes from the complex Culex pipiens sl. are the most abundant in Portugal, and we dispose in this moment of a data set from the surveillance program that has been carried on since 2006 across the country. All mosquitos’ species are included, but the large coverage of Culex pipiens sl. and its importance for public health make this vector an interesting candidate to assess risk of disease amplification. This work focus on ports and airports identified as key areas of high density of vectors. Mosquitoes being ectothermic organisms, the main factor for vector survival and pathogen development is temperature. Minima and maxima local air temperatures for each area of interest are averaged by month from data gathered on a daily basis at the national network of meteorological stations, and interpolated in a geographic information system (GIS). The range of temperatures ideal for several pathogens are known and this work shows how to use it with the meteorological data in each port and airport facility, to focus an efficient implementation of countermeasures and reduce simultaneously risk transmission and mitigation costs. The results show an increased alert with decreasing latitude, which corresponds to higher minimum and maximum temperatures and a lower amplitude range of the daily temperature.

Keywords: Human health, risk assessment, risk management, vector-borne diseases.

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187 Experimental Analyses of Thermoelectric Generator Behavior Using Two Types of Thermoelectric Modules for Marine Application

Authors: A. Nour Eddine, D. Chalet, L. Aixala, P. Chessé, X. Faure, N. Hatat

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Thermal power technology such as the TEG (Thermo-Electric Generator) arouses significant attention worldwide for waste heat recovery. Despite the potential benefits of marine application due to the permanent heat sink from sea water, no significant studies on this application were to be found. In this study, a test rig has been designed and built to test the performance of the TEG on engine operating points. The TEG device is built from commercially available materials for the sake of possible economical application. Two types of commercial TEM (thermo electric module) have been studied separately on the test rig. The engine data were extracted from a commercial Diesel engine since it shares the same principle in terms of engine efficiency and exhaust with the marine Diesel engine. An open circuit water cooling system is used to replicate the sea water cold source. The characterization tests showed that the silicium-germanium alloys TEM proved a remarkable reliability on all engine operating points, with no significant deterioration of performance even under sever variation in the hot source conditions. The performance of the bismuth-telluride alloys was 100% better than the first type of TEM but it showed a deterioration in power generation when the air temperature exceeds 300 °C. The temperature distribution on the heat exchange surfaces revealed no useful combination of these two types of TEM with this tube length, since the surface temperature difference between both ends is no more than 10 °C. This study exposed the perspective of use of TEG technology for marine engine exhaust heat recovery. Although the results suggested non-sufficient power generation from the low cost commercial TEM used, it provides valuable information about TEG device optimization, including the design of heat exchanger and the types of thermo-electric materials.

Keywords: Internal combustion engine application, Seebeck, thermo-electricity, waste heat recovery.

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186 Impact of Positive Psychology Education and Interventions on Well-Being: A Study of Students Engaged in Pastoral Care

Authors: Inna R. Edara, Haw-Lin Wu

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Positive psychology investigates human strengths and virtues and promotes well-being. Relying on this assumption, positive interventions have been continuously designed to build pleasure and happiness, joy and contentment, engagement and meaning, hope and optimism, satisfaction and gratitude, spirituality, and various other positive measures of well-being. In line with this model of positive psychology and interventions, this study investigated certain measures of well-being in a group of 45 students enrolled in an 18-week positive psychology course and simultaneously engaged in service-oriented interventions that they chose for themselves based on the course content and individual interests. Students’ well-being was measured at the beginning and end of the course. The well-being indicators included positive automatic thoughts, optimism and hope, satisfaction with life, and spirituality. A paired-samples t-test conducted to evaluate the impact of class content and service-oriented interventions on students’ scores of well-being indicators indicated statistically significant increase from pre-class to post-class scores. There were also significant gender differences in post-course well-being scores, with females having higher levels of well-being than males. A two-way between groups analysis of variance indicated a significant interaction effect of age by gender on the post-course well-being scores, with females in the age group of 56-65 having the highest scores of well-being in comparison to the males in the same age group. Regression analyses indicated that positive automatic thought significantly predicted hope and satisfaction with life in the pre-course analysis. In the post-course regression analysis, spiritual transcendence made a significant contribution to optimism, and positive automatic thought made a significant contribution to both hope and satisfaction with life. Finally, a significant test between pre-course and post-course regression coefficients indicated that the regression coefficients at pre-course were significantly different from post-course coefficients, suggesting that the positive psychology course and the interventions were helpful in raising the levels of well-being. The overall results suggest a substantial increase in the participants’ well-being scores after engaging in the positive-oriented interventions, implying a need for designing more positive interventions in education to promote well-being.  

Keywords: Hope, optimism, positive automatic thoughts, satisfaction with life, spirituality, well-being.

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185 Clinical and Methodological Issues in the Research on the Rape Myth

Authors: Ana Pauna, Zbigniew Pleszewski

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The purpose of this study is to revisit the concept of rape as represented by professionals in the literature as well as its perception (beliefs and attitudes) in the population at large and to propose methodological improvements to its measurement tool. Rape is a serious crime threatening its victim-s physical and mental health and integrity; and as such is legally prosecuted in all modern societies. The problem is not in accepting or rejecting rape as a criminal act, but rather in the vagueness of its interpretations and “justifications" maintained in the mentality of modern societies - known in the literature as the phenomenon of "rape-myth". The rapemyth can be studied from different perspectives: criminology, sociology, ethics, medicine and psychology. Its investigation requires rigorous scientific objectivity, free of passion (victims of rape are at risk of emotional bias), free of activism (social activists, even if wellintentioned are also biased), free of any pre-emptive assumptions or prejudices. To apply a rigorous scientific procedure, we need a solid, valid and reliable measurement. Rape is a form of heterosexual or homosexual aggression, violently forcing the victim to give-in in the sexual activity of the aggressor against her/his will. Human beings always try to “understand" or find a reason justifying their acts. Psychological literature provides multiple clinical and experimental examples of it; just to mention the famous studies by Milgram on the level of electroshock delivered by the “teacher" towards the “learner" if “scientifically justifiable" or the studies on the behavior of “prisoners" and the “guards" and many other experiments and field observations. Sigmund Freud presented the phenomenon of unconscious justification and called it rationalization. The multiple justifications, rationalizations and repeated opinions about sexual behavior contribute to a myth maintained in the society. What kind of “rationale" our societies apply to “understand" the non-consensual sexual behavior? There are many, just to mention few: • Sex is a ludistic activity for both participants, therefore – even if not consented – it should bring pleasure to both. • Everybody wants sex, but only men are allowed to manifest it openly while women have to pretend the opposite, thus men have to initiate sexual behavior and women would follow. • A person who strongly needs sex is free to manifest it and struggle to get it; the person who doesn-t want it must not reveal her/his sexual attraction and avoid risky situations; otherwise she/he is perceived as a promiscuous seducer. • A person who doesn-t fight against the sexual initiator unconsciously accepts the rape (does it explain why homosexual rapes are reported less frequently than rapes against women?). • Women who are raped deserve it because their wardrobe is very revealing and seducing and they ''willingly'' go to highly risky places (alleys, dark roads, etc.). • Men need to ventilate their sexual energy and if they are deprived of a partner their urge to have sex is difficult to control. • Men are supposed to initiate and insist even by force to have sex (their testosterone makes them both sexual and aggressive). The paper overviews numerous cultural beliefs about masculine versus feminine behavior and their impact on the “rape myth".

Keywords: Rape Myth components, psycho-social factors, testing, Likert-type scale

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184 Comparison of Power Generation Status of Photovoltaic Systems under Different Weather Conditions

Authors: Zhaojun Wang, Zongdi Sun, Qinqin Cui, Xingwan Ren

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Based on multivariate statistical analysis theory, this paper uses the principal component analysis method, Mahalanobis distance analysis method and fitting method to establish the photovoltaic health model to evaluate the health of photovoltaic panels. First of all, according to weather conditions, the photovoltaic panel variable data are classified into five categories: sunny, cloudy, rainy, foggy, overcast. The health of photovoltaic panels in these five types of weather is studied. Secondly, a scatterplot of the relationship between the amount of electricity produced by each kind of weather and other variables was plotted. It was found that the amount of electricity generated by photovoltaic panels has a significant nonlinear relationship with time. The fitting method was used to fit the relationship between the amount of weather generated and the time, and the nonlinear equation was obtained. Then, using the principal component analysis method to analyze the independent variables under five kinds of weather conditions, according to the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test, it was found that three types of weather such as overcast, foggy, and sunny meet the conditions for factor analysis, while cloudy and rainy weather do not satisfy the conditions for factor analysis. Therefore, through the principal component analysis method, the main components of overcast weather are temperature, AQI, and pm2.5. The main component of foggy weather is temperature, and the main components of sunny weather are temperature, AQI, and pm2.5. Cloudy and rainy weather require analysis of all of their variables, namely temperature, AQI, pm2.5, solar radiation intensity and time. Finally, taking the variable values in sunny weather as observed values, taking the main components of cloudy, foggy, overcast and rainy weather as sample data, the Mahalanobis distances between observed value and these sample values are obtained. A comparative analysis was carried out to compare the degree of deviation of the Mahalanobis distance to determine the health of the photovoltaic panels under different weather conditions. It was found that the weather conditions in which the Mahalanobis distance fluctuations ranged from small to large were: foggy, cloudy, overcast and rainy.

Keywords: Fitting, principal component analysis, Mahalanobis distance, SPSS, MATLAB.

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183 A Risk Assessment Tool for the Contamination of Aflatoxins on Dried Figs based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Kottaridi Klimentia, Demopoulos Vasilis, Sidiropoulos Anastasios, Ihara Diego, Nikolaidis Vasileios, Antonopoulos Dimitrios

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Aflatoxins are highly poisonous and carcinogenic compounds produced by species of the genus Aspergillus spp. that can infect a variety of agricultural foods, including dried figs. Biological and environmental factors, such as population, pathogenicity and aflatoxinogenic capacity of the strains, topography, soil and climate parameters of the fig orchards are believed to have a strong effect on aflatoxin levels. Existing methods for aflatoxin detection and measurement, such as high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), can provide accurate results, but the procedures are usually time-consuming, sample-destructive and expensive. Predicting aflatoxin levels prior to crop harvest is useful for minimizing the health and financial impact of a contaminated crop. Consequently, there is interest in developing a tool that predicts aflatoxin levels based on topography and soil analysis data of fig orchards. This paper describes the development of a risk assessment tool for the contamination of aflatoxin on dried figs, based on the location and altitude of the fig orchards, the population of the fungus Aspergillus spp. in the soil, and soil parameters such as pH, saturation percentage (SP), electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter, particle size analysis (sand, silt, clay), concentration of the exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na), extractable P and trace of elements (B, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu), by employing machine learning methods. In particular, our proposed method integrates three machine learning techniques i.e., dimensionality reduction on the original dataset (Principal Component Analysis), metric learning (Mahalanobis Metric for Clustering) and K-nearest Neighbors learning algorithm (KNN), into an enhanced model, with mean performance equal to 85% by terms of the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) between observed and predicted values.

Keywords: aflatoxins, Aspergillus spp., dried figs, k-nearest neighbors, machine learning, prediction

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182 Democracy in Pakistan: A Critical Review Through the Lens of Dr. Israr Ahmed and Western Philosophers

Authors: Zoaib Mirza

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Pakistan is an Islamic country that got its partition from India in 1947 so that the people could practice the religion of Islam. The political slogan to strive for independence was “What does Pakistan mean? There is no God but Allah”. The ideology of Pakistan was based on the notion that sovereignty only belonged to God Almighty (in Arabic, God means “Allah”), and Muslims will live in accordance with Islam principles. The Quran (Holy Book) and Sunnah (authentic practices of Prophet Mohammad, Peace Be Upon Him, that explains the application of the Quran) are foundations of the Islamic principles. It has been over 75 years, but unfortunately, Pakistan, due to its own political, social, and economic mistakes, is responsible for not being able to become a true Islamic nation to justify its partition from India. The rationale for writing this paper is to analyze the factors that led to changes in the democratic movements impacting the country's political, social, and economic growth. The methodology to examine the historical and political context of Pakistan’s history is by referencing the scholarly work of Israr Ahmed. He focused on Islamic theology, philosophy, and studies, offering insights into the historical and political context of the country. While from a Western perspective, Karl Marx, Mar Weber, Hannah Arendt, Sheldon Wolin, Paulo Freire, and Jacques Ranciere's philosophies specific to totalitarianism, politics, military rule, religion, capitalism, and superpower are used as the framework to analyze Pakistan’s democracy. The study's findings conclude that Pakistan's democracy is unstable and has been impacted by military and civilian governance, which led to political, social, and economic downfall. To improve the current situation, the citizens of Pakistan have to realize that the success of a nation is only dependent on the level of consciousness of the leader and not the political system. Therefore, it is the responsibility of every citizen to be conscious of how they select their leader and take responsibility for the current situation in Pakistan.

Keywords: Pakistan, Islam, democracy, totalitarianism, military, religion, capitalism.

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181 Ethyl Methane Sulfonate-Induced Dunaliella salina KU11 Mutants Affected for Growth Rate, Cell Accumulation and Biomass

Authors: Vongsathorn Ngampuak, Yutachai Chookaew, Wipawee Dejtisakdi

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Dunaliella salina has great potential as a system for generating commercially valuable products, including beta-carotene, pharmaceuticals, and biofuels. Our goal is to improve this potential by enhancing growth rate and other properties of D. salina under optimal growth conditions. We used ethyl methane sulfonate (EMS) to generate random mutants in D. salina KU11, a strain classified in Thailand. In a preliminary experiment, we first treated D. salina cells with 0%, 0.8%, 1.0%, 1.2%, 1.44% and 1.66% EMS to generate a killing curve. After that, we randomly picked 30 candidates from approximately 300 isolated survivor colonies from the 1.44% EMS treatment (which permitted 30% survival) as an initial test of the mutant screen. Among the 30 survivor lines, we found that 2 strains (mutant #17 and #24) had significantly improved growth rates and cell number accumulation at stationary phase approximately up to 1.8 and 1.45 fold, respectively, 2 strains (mutant #6 and #23) had significantly decreased growth rates and cell number accumulation at stationary phase approximately down to 1.4 and 1.35 fold, respectively, while 26 of 30 lines had similar growth rates compared with the wild type control. We also analyzed cell size for each strain and found there was no significant difference comparing all mutants with the wild type. In addition, mutant #24 had shown an increase of biomass accumulation approximately 1.65 fold compared with the wild type strain on day 5 that was entering early stationary phase. From these preliminary results, it could be feasible to identify D. salina mutants with significant improved growth rate, cell accumulation and biomass production compared to the wild type for the further study; this makes it possible to improve this microorganism as a platform for biotechnology application.

Keywords: Dunaliella salina, mutant, ethyl methane sulfonate, growth rate, biomass.

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180 Is HR in a State of Transition? An International Comparative Study on the Development of HR Competencies

Authors: Barbara Covarrubias Venegas, Sabine Groblschegg, Bernhard Klaus, Julia Domnanovich

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Research Objectives: The roles and activities of Human Resource Management (HRM) have changed a lot in the past years. Driven by a changing environment and therefore new business requirements, the scope of human resource (HR) activities has widened. The extent to which these activities should focus on strategic issues to support the long term success of a company has been discussed in science for many years. As many economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) experienced a phase of transition after the socialist era and are now recovering from the 2008 global crisis it is needed to examine the current state of HR positioning. Furthermore a trend in HR work developing from rather administrative units to being strategic partners of management can be noticed. This leads to the question of better understanding the underlying competencies which are necessary to support organisations. This topic was addressed by the international study “HR Competencies in international comparison”. The quantitative survey was conducted by the Institute for Human Resources & Organisation of FHWien University of Applied Science of WKW (A) in cooperation with partner universities in the countries Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia. Methodology: Using the questionnaire developed by Dave Ulrich we tested whether the HR Competency model can be used for Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia. After performing confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis for the whole data set containing all five countries we could clearly distinguish between four competencies. In a further step our analysis focused on median and average comparisons between the HR competency dimensions. Conclusion: Our literature review, in alignment with other studies, shows a relatively rapid pace of development of HR Roles and HR Competencies in BCSS in the past decades. Comparing data from BCSS and Austria we still can notice that regards strategic orientation there is a lack in BCSS countries, thus competencies are not as developed as in Austria. This leads us to the tentative conclusion that HR has undergone a rapid change but is still in a State of Transition from being a rather administrative unit to performing the role of a strategic partner.

Keywords: Comparative study, HR competencies, HRM, HR Roles.

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179 Evaluation of the Execution Effect of the Minimum Grain Purchase Price in Rural Areas

Authors: Zhaojun Wang, Zongdi Sun, Yongjie Chen, Manman Chen, Linghui Wang

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This paper uses the analytic hierarchy process to study the execution effect of the minimum purchase price of grain in different regions and various grain crops. Firstly, for different regions, five indicators including grain yield, grain sown area, gross agricultural production, grain consumption price index, and disposable income of rural residents were selected to construct an evaluation index system. We collect data of six provinces including Hebei Province, Heilongjiang Province and Shandong Province from 2006 to 2017. Then, the judgment matrix is constructed, and the hierarchical single ordering and consistency test are carried out to determine the scoring standard for the minimum purchase price of grain. The ranking of the execution effect from high to low is: Heilongjiang Province, Shandong Province, Hebei Province, Guizhou Province, Shaanxi Province, and Guangdong Province. Secondly, taking Shandong Province as an example, we collect the relevant data of sown area and yield of cereals, beans, potatoes and other crops from 2006 to 2017. The weight of area and yield index is determined by expert scoring method. And the average sown area and yield of cereals, beans and potatoes in 2006-2017 were calculated, respectively. On this basis, according to the sum of products of weights and mean values, the execution effects of different grain crops are determined. It turns out that among the cereals, the minimum purchase price had the best execution effect on paddy, followed by wheat and finally maize. Moreover, among major categories of crops, cereals perform best, followed by beans and finally potatoes. Lastly, countermeasures are proposed for different regions, various categories of crops, and different crops of the same category.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, grain yield, grain sown area, minimum grain purchase price.

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178 Design Transformation to Reduce Cost in Irrigation Using Value Engineering

Authors: F. S. Al-Anzi, M. Sarfraz, A. Elmi, A. R. Khan

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Researchers are responding to the environmental challenges of Kuwait in localized, innovative, effective and economic ways. One of the vital and significant examples of the natural challenges is lack or water and desertification. In this research, the project team focuses on redesigning a prototype, using Value Engineering Methodology, which would provide similar functionalities to the well-known technology of Waterboxx kits while reducing the capital and operational costs and simplifying the process of manufacturing and usability by regular farmers. The design employs used tires and recycled plastic sheets as raw materials. Hence, this approach is going to help not just fighting desertification but also helping in getting rid of ever growing huge tire dumpsters in Kuwait, as well as helping in avoiding hazards of tire fires yielding in a safer and friendlier environment. Several alternatives for implementing the prototype have been considered. The best alternative in terms of value has been selected after thorough Function Analysis System Technique (FAST) exercise has been developed. A prototype has been fabricated and tested in a controlled simulated lab environment that is being followed by real environment field testing. Water and soil analysis conducted on the site of the experiment to cross compare between the composition of the soil before and after the experiment to insure that the prototype being tested is actually going to be environment safe. Experimentation shows that the design was equally as effective as, and may exceed, the original design with significant savings in cost. An estimated total cost reduction using the VE approach of 43.84% over the original design. This cost reduction does not consider the intangible costs of environmental issue of waste recycling which many further intensify the total savings of using the alternative VE design. This case study shows that Value Engineering Methodology can be an important tool in innovating new designs for reducing costs.

Keywords: Desertification, functional analysis, scrap tires, value engineering, waste recycling, water irrigation rationing.

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177 Comparison and Improvement of the Existing Cone Penetration Test Results: Shear Wave Velocity Correlations for Hungarian Soils

Authors: Ákos Wolf, Richard P. Ray

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Due to the introduction of Eurocode 8, the structural design for seismic and dynamic effects has become more significant in Hungary. This has emphasized the need for more effort to describe the behavior of structures under these conditions. Soil conditions have a significant effect on the response of structures by modifying the stiffness and damping of the soil-structural system and by modifying the seismic action as it reaches the ground surface. Shear modulus (G) and shear wave velocity (vs), which are often measured in the field, are the fundamental dynamic soil properties for foundation vibration problems, liquefaction potential and earthquake site response analysis. There are several laboratory and in-situ measurement techniques to evaluate dynamic soil properties, but unfortunately, they are often too expensive for general design practice. However, a significant number of correlations have been proposed to determine shear wave velocity or shear modulus from Cone Penetration Tests (CPT), which are used more and more in geotechnical design practice in Hungary. This allows the designer to analyze and compare CPT and seismic test result in order to select the best correlation equations for Hungarian soils and to improve the recommendations for the Hungarian geologic conditions. Based on a literature review, as well as research experience in Hungary, the influence of various parameters on the accuracy of results will be shown. This study can serve as a basis for selecting and modifying correlation equations for Hungarian soils. Test data are taken from seven locations in Hungary with similar geologic conditions. The shear wave velocity values were measured by seismic CPT. Several factors are analyzed including soil type, behavior index, measurement depth, geologic age etc. for their effect on the accuracy of predictions. The final results show an improved prediction method for Hungarian soils

Keywords: CPT correlation, dynamic soil properties, seismic CPT, shear wave velocity.

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176 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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175 An Investigation into the Views of Gifted Children on the Effects of Computer and Information Technologies on Their Lives and Education

Authors: Ahmet Kurnaz, Eyup Yurt, Ümit Çiftci

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In this study, too, an attempt was made to reveal the place and effects of information technologies on the lives and education of gifted children based on the views of gifted. To this end, the effects of information technologies on gifted are general skills, technology use, academic and social skills, and cooperative and personal skills were investigated. These skills were explored depending on whether or not gifted had their own computers, had internet connection at home, or how often they use the internet, average time period they spent at the computer, how often they played computer games and their use of social media. The study was conducted using the screening model with a quantitative approach. The sample of the study consisted of 129 gifted attending 5-12th classes in 12 provinces in different regions of Turkey. 64 of the participants were female while 65 were male. The research data were collected using the using computer of gifted and information technologies (UCIT) questionnaire which was developed by the researchers and given its final form after receiving expert view. As a result of the study, it was found that UCIT use improved foreign language speaking skills of gifted, enabled them to get to know and understand different cultures, and made use of computer and information technologies while they study. At the end of the study these result were obtained: Gifted have positive idea using computer and communication technology. There are differences whether using the internet about the ideas UCIT. But there are not differences whether having computer, inhabited city, grade level, having internet at home, daily and weekly internet usage durations, playing the computer and internet game, having Facebook and Twitter account about the UCIT. UCIT contribute to the development of gifted vocabulary, allows knowing and understand different cultures, developing foreign language speaking skills, gifted do not give up computer when they do their homework, improve their reading, listening, understanding and writing skills in a foreign language. Gifted children want to have transition to the use of tablets in education. They think UCIT facilitates doing their homework, contributes learning more information in a shorter time. They'd like to use computer-assisted instruction programs at courses. They think they will be more successful in the future if their computer skills are good. But gifted students prefer teacher instead of teaching with computers and they said that learning can be run from home without going to school.

Keywords: Gifted, using computer, communication technology.

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174 Climate Related Financial Risk for Automobile Industry and Impact to Financial Institutions

Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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