Search results for: Lars Lundberg

Authors: Fenglong Guo, Dingcheng Wang

Abstract:

This paper studies ruin probabilities in two discrete-time risk models with premiums, claims and rates of interest modelled by three autoregressive moving average processes. Generalized Lundberg inequalities for ruin probabilities are derived by using recursive technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applications of these probability inequalities.

Keywords: Lundberg inequality, NWUC, Renewal recursive technique, Ruin probability

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Authors: Dawit Mengistu, Lars Lundberg, Paul Davidsson

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A major requirement for Grid application developers is ensuring performance and scalability of their applications. Predicting the performance of an application demands understanding its specific features. This paper discusses performance modeling and prediction of multi-agent based simulation (MABS) applications on the Grid. An experiment conducted using a synthetic MABS workload explains the key features to be included in the performance model. The results obtained from the experiment show that the prediction model developed for the synthetic workload can be used as a guideline to understand to estimate the performance characteristics of real world simulation applications.

Keywords: Grid computing, Performance modeling, Performance prediction, Multi-agent simulation.

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Authors: Leila Rashidian

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Temperature rise on Earth has had harmful effects on the Earth's surface and has led to change in precipitation patterns all around the world. The present research was aimed to study the process of climate change according to the data simulation in future and compare these parameters with current situation in the studied stations in Semnan province including Garmsar, Shahrood and Semnan. In this regard, LARS-WG software, HADCM₃ model and A₂ scenario were used for the 2010-2030 period. In this model, climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and radiation were used daily. The obtained results indicated that there will be a 4.4% increase in precipitation in Semnan province compared with the observed data, and in general, there will be a 1.9% increase in temperature. This temperature rise has significant impact on precipitation patterns. Most of precipitation will be raining (torrential rains in some cases). According to the results, from west to east, the country will experience more temperature rise and will be warmer.

Keywords: Climate change, Semnan province, LARS-WG model, climate parameters, HADCM3 model.

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Authors: Shan Gao

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In this paper, we consider a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks and random premium income. We assume that the premium income process is a Poisson Process, and the claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang(n) processes, respectively. Both of the Gerber- Shiu functions with zero initial surplus and the probability generating functions (p.g.f.) of the Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained.

Keywords: Poisson process, generalized Erlang risk process, Gerber-Shiu function, generating function, generalized Lundberg equation.

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Authors: Earleen Jane Fuentes, Regeene Melarese Lim, Franklin Benjamin Tapia, Alexis Pantola

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Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET) is an infrastructure-less network of mobile devices, also known as nodes. These nodes heavily rely on each other’s resources such as memory, computing power, and energy. Thus, some nodes may become selective in forwarding packets so as to conserve their resources. These nodes are called misleading nodes. Several reputation-based techniques (e.g. CORE, CONFIDANT, LARS, SORI, OCEAN) and acknowledgment-based techniques (e.g. TWOACK, S-TWOACK, EAACK) have been proposed to detect such nodes. These techniques do not appropriately punish misleading nodes. Hence, this paper addresses the limitations of these techniques using a system called MINDRA.

Keywords: Mobile ad-hoc network, selfish nodes, reputation-based techniques, acknowledgment-based techniques.

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Authors: Lars Silver, Björn Berggren, Andreas Fili

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The financial crisis has decreased the opportunities of small businesses to acquire financing through conventional financial actors, such as commercial banks. This credit constraint is partly the reason for the emergence of new alternatives of financing, in addition to the spreading opportunities for communication and secure financial transfer through Internet. One of the most interesting venues for finance is termed “crowdfunding". As the term suggests crowdfunding is an appeal to prospective customers and investors to form a crowd that will finance projects that otherwise would find it hard to generate support through the most common financial actors. Crowdfunding is in this paper divided into different models; the threshold model, the microfinance model, the micro loan model and the equity model. All these models add to the financial possibilities of emerging entrepreneurs.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, crowdfunding, equity finance, bank finance.

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Authors: Erik Hedin, Lars Strandén, Johannes Lundsten

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In 2002 an amendment to SOLAS opened for lightweight material constructions in vessels if the same fire safety as in steel constructions could be obtained. FISPAT (FIreSPread Analysis Tool) is a computer application that simulates fire spread and fault injection in cruise vessels and identifies fire sensitive areas. It was developed to analyze cruise vessel designs and provides a method to evaluate network layout and safety of cruise vessels. It allows fast, reliable and deterministic exhaustive simulations and presents the result in a graphical vessel model. By performing the analysis iteratively while altering the cruise vessel design it can be used along with fire chamber experiments to show that the lightweight design can be as safe as a steel construction and that SOLAS regulations are fulfilled.

Keywords: Fire spread, network, safety, simulation.

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Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König

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As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focusses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.

Keywords: Auto-ID, Construction Logistic, Fuzzy, Monitoring, RFID, Scheduling.

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Authors: W. K. Hiromi Ariyaratne, Morten C. Melaaen, Lars-André Tokheim

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A mathematical model based on a mass and energy balance for the combustion in a cement rotary kiln was developed. The model was used to investigate the impact of replacing about 45 % of the primary coal energy by different alternative fuels. Refuse derived fuel, waste wood, solid hazardous waste and liquid hazardous waste were used in the modeling. The results showed that in order to keep the kiln temperature unchanged, and thereby maintain the required clinker quality, the production capacity had to be reduced by 1-15 %, depending on the fuel type. The reason for the reduction is increased exhaust gas flow rates caused by the fuel characteristics. The model, which has been successfully validated in a full-scale experiment, was also used to show that the negative impact on the production capacity can be avoided if a relatively small part of the combustion air is replaced by pure oxygen.

Keywords: Alternative fuels, Cement kiln main burner, Oxygen enrichment, Production capacity.

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

Abstract:

Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.

Keywords: Tomato yields prediction, naive Bayes, redundancy

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Authors: Henrik L. Funke, Lars Ulke-Winter, Sandra Gelbrich, Lothar Kroll

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This work reports about an approach for an automatic adaptation of concrete formulations based on genetic algorithms (GA) to optimize a wide range of different fit-functions. In order to achieve the goal, a method was developed which provides a numerical description of a fibre reinforced concrete (FRC) mixture regarding the production technology and the property spectrum of the concrete. In a first step, the FRC mixture with seven fixed components was characterized by varying amounts of the components. For that purpose, ten concrete mixtures were prepared and tested. The testing procedure comprised flow spread, compressive and bending tensile strength. The analysis and approximation of the determined data was carried out by GAs. The aim was to obtain a closed mathematical expression which best describes the given seven-point cloud of FRC by applying a Gene Expression Programming with Free Coefficients (GEP-FC) strategy. The seven-parametric FRC-mixtures model which is generated according to this method correlated well with the measured data. The developed procedure can be used for concrete mixtures finding closed mathematical expressions, which are based on the measured data.

Keywords: Concrete design, fibre reinforced concrete, genetic algorithms, GEP-FC.

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Authors: Lars Steiner, Zahra Ahmadi

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Public housing is a vital factor in community development. Successful city, housing and eco system regeneration design is essential in providing positive community development. This concerns work places, nice dwellings, providing premises for child care, care of the elderly, providing qualitative premises for different kinds of commercial service, providing a nice built environment and housing areas and not the least activating tenants. The public housing companies give value to society by stimulating people, renovating socially and economically sustainable as well as being partners to local business and authorities. By their activities the housing companies contribute to sustainable local and regional growth and the identity and reputation of cities. A Social, Economic and Ecological Reputation Effect (SEERE) model for actions to promote housing and community reputation is presented. The model emphasizes regenerative actions to restore natural eco systems as part of housing renewal strategies and to strengthen municipality reputation.

Keywords: Community Development, Image and Reputation, Public Housing, Renewal Strategies.

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Abbas Ebrahimi

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The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO₂ in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM₃ model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A₂ propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.

Keywords: Climate change, Lars.WG, HADCM3 model, Fars province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario.

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Authors: Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi, P. Ranjan Sarukkalige

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Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21^st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.

Keywords: Climate change impact, Harvey catchment, HBV model, hydrological modelling, GCMs, LARS-WG, Australia.

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Authors: Lars A. L. Giske, Ola J. Mork, Emil Bjoerlykhaug

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The design of fish processing equipment greatly impacts how easy the cleaning process for the equipment is. This is a critical issue in fish processing, as cleaning of fish processing equipment is a task that is both costly and time consuming, in addition to being very important with regards to product quality. Even more, poorly cleaned equipment could in the worst case lead to contaminated product from which consumers could get ill. This paper will elucidate how equipment design changes could improve the work for the cleaners and saving money for the fish processing facilities by looking at a case for product design improvements. The design of fish processing equipment largely determines how easy it is to clean. “Design for cleaning” is the new hype in the industry and equipment where the ease of cleaning is prioritized gets a competitive advantage over equipment in which design for cleaning has not been prioritized. Design for cleaning is an important research area for equipment manufacturers. SeaSide AS is doing continuously improvements in the design of their products in order to gain a competitive advantage. The focus in this paper will be conveyors for internal logistic and a product called the “electro stunner” will be studied with regards to “Design for cleaning”. Often together with SeaSide’s customers, ideas for new products or product improvements are sketched out, 3D-modelled, discussed, revised, built and delivered. Feedback from the customers is taken into consideration, and the product design is revised once again. This loop was repeated multiple times, and led to new product designs. The new designs sometimes also cause the manufacturing processes to change (as in going from bolted to welded connections). Customers report back that the concrete changes applied to products by SeaSide has resulted in overall more easily cleaned equipment. These changes include, but are not limited to; welded connections (opposed to bolted connections), gaps between contact faces, opening up structures to allow cleaning “inside” equipment, and generally avoiding areas in which humidity and water may gather and build up. This is important, as there will always be bacteria in the water which will grow if the area never dries up. The work of creating more cleanable design is still ongoing, and will “never” be finished as new designs and new equipment will have their own challenges.

Keywords: Cleaning, design, equipment, fish processing, innovation.

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Authors: Ola Elfmark, Lars M. Bardal, Luca Oggiano, H˚avard Myklebust

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Team pursuit is a relatively new event in international long track speed skating. For a single speed skater the aerodynamic drag will account for up to 80% of the braking force, thus reducing the drag can greatly improve the performance. In a team pursuit the interactions between athletes in near proximity will also be essential, but is not well studied. In this study, systematic measurements of the aerodynamic drag, body posture and relative positioning of speed skaters have been performed in the low speed wind tunnel at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, in order to investigate the aerodynamic interaction between two speed skaters. Drag measurements of static speed skaters drafting, leading, side-by-side, and dynamic drag measurements in a synchronized and unsynchronized movement at different distances, were performed. The projected frontal area was measured for all postures and movements and a blockage correction was performed, as the blockage ratio ranged from 5-15% in the different setups. The static drag measurements where performed on two test subjects in two different postures, a low posture and a high posture, and two different distances between the test subjects 1.5T and 3T where T being the length of the torso (T=0.63m). A drag reduction was observed for all distances and configurations, from 39% to 11.4%, for the drafting test subject. The drag of the leading test subject was only influenced at -1.5T, with the biggest drag reduction of 5.6%. An increase in drag was seen for all side-by-side measurements, the biggest increase was observed to be 25.7%, at the closest distance between the test subjects, and the lowest at 2.7% with ∼ 0.7 m between the test subjects. A clear aerodynamic interaction between the test subjects and their postures was observed for most measurements during static measurements, with results corresponding well to recent studies. For the dynamic measurements, the leading test subject had a drag reduction of 3% even at -3T. The drafting showed a drag reduction of 15% when being in a synchronized (sync) motion with the leading test subject at 4.5T. The maximal drag reduction for both the leading and the drafting test subject were observed when being as close as possible in sync, with a drag reduction of 8.5% and 25.7% respectively. This study emphasize the importance of keeping a synchronized movement by showing that the maximal gain for the leading and drafting dropped to 3.2% and 3.3% respectively when the skaters are in opposite phase. Individual differences in technique also appear to influence the drag of the other test subject.

Keywords: Aerodynamic interaction, drag cycle, drag force, frontal area, speed skating.

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