Search results for: Knowledge-based Information Models

Authors: Fernando Alonso, Rafael Fernandez, Sonia Frutos, Javier Soriano

Abstract:

CIM is the standard formalism for modeling management information developed by the Distributed Management Task Force (DMTF) in the context of its WBEM proposal, designed to provide a conceptual view of the managed environment. In this paper, we propose the inclusion of formal knowledge representation techniques, based on Description Logics (DLs) and the Web Ontology Language (OWL), in CIM-based conceptual modeling, and then we examine the benefits of such a decision. The proposal is specified as a CIM metamodel level mapping to a highly expressive subset of DLs capable of capturing all the semantics of the models. The paper shows how the proposed mapping can be used for automatic reasoning about the management information models, as a design aid, by means of new-generation CASE tools, thanks to the use of state-of-the-art automatic reasoning systems that support the proposed logic and use algorithms that are sound and complete with respect to the semantics. Such a CASE tool framework has been developed by the authors and its architecture is also introduced. The proposed formalization is not only useful at design time, but also at run time through the use of rational autonomous agents, in response to a need recently recognized by the DMTF.

Keywords: CIM, Knowledge-based Information Models, Ontology Languages, OWL, Description Logics, Integrated Network Management, Intelligent Agents, Automatic Reasoning Techniques.

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Authors: Victoria A. Bakhtina

Abstract:

At a time of growing market turbulence and a strong shifts towards increasingly complex risk models and more stringent audit requirements, it is more critical than ever to maintain the highest quality of financial and credit information. IFC implemented an approach that helps increase data integrity and quality significantly. This approach is called “Screening". Screening is based on linking information from different sources to identify potential inconsistencies in key financial and credit data. That, in turn, can help to ease the trials of portfolio supervision, and improve overall company global reporting and assessment systems. IFC experience showed that when used regularly, Screening led to improved information.

Keywords: Information Integrity, Information Quality, Business Rules, Portfolio Management

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Authors: Edlira Kalemi, Sule Yildirim-Yayilgan

Abstract:

Online Social Networks (OSNs) are nowadays being used widely and intensively for crime investigation and prevention activities. As they provide a lot of information they are used by the law enforcement and intelligence. An extensive review on existing solutions and models for collecting intelligence from this source of information and making use of it for solving crimes has been presented in this article. The main focus is on smart solutions and models where ontologies have been used as the main approach for representing criminal domain knowledge. A framework for a prototype ontology named SC-Ont will be described. This defines terms of the criminal domain ontology and the relations between them. The terms and the relations are extracted during both this review and the discussions carried out with domain experts. The development of SC-Ont is still ongoing work, where in this paper, we report mainly on the motivation for using smart ontology models and the possible benefits of using them for solving crimes.

Keywords: Criminal digital evidence, social media, ontologies, reasoning.

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Authors: Keneilwe Maremi, Marlien Herselman, Adele Botha

Abstract:

The main purpose and focus of this paper are to determine the Interoperability Maturity Models to consider when using School Management Systems (SMS). The importance of this is to inform and help schools with knowing which Interoperability Maturity Model is best suited for their SMS. To address the purpose, this paper will apply a scoping review to ensure that all aspects are provided. The scoping review will include papers written from 2012-2019 and a comparison of the different types of Interoperability Maturity Models will be discussed in detail, which includes the background information, the levels of interoperability, and area for consideration in each Maturity Model. The literature was obtained from the following databases: IEEE Xplore and Scopus, the following search engines were used: Harzings, and Google Scholar. The topic of the paper was used as a search term for the literature and the term ‘Interoperability Maturity Models’ was used as a keyword. The data were analyzed in terms of the definition of Interoperability, Interoperability Maturity Models, and levels of interoperability. The results provide a table that shows the focus area of concern for each Maturity Model (based on the scoping review where only 24 papers were found to be best suited for the paper out of 740 publications initially identified in the field). This resulted in the most discussed Interoperability Maturity Model for consideration (Information Systems Interoperability Maturity Model (ISIMM) and Organizational Interoperability Maturity Model for C2 (OIM)).

Keywords: Interoperability, Interoperability Maturity Model, School Management System, scoping review.

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Authors: M. Madiajagan, B. Vijayakumar

Abstract:

The ability of information systems to operate in conjunction with each other encompassing communication protocols, hardware, software, application, and data compatibility layers. There has been considerable work in industry on the development of component interoperability models, such as CORBA, (D)COM and JavaBeans. These models are intended to reduce the complexity of software development and to facilitate reuse of off-the-shelf components. The focus of these models is syntactic interface specification, component packaging, inter-component communications, and bindings to a runtime environment. What these models lack is a consideration of architectural concerns – specifying systems of communicating components, explicitly representing loci of component interaction, and exploiting architectural styles that provide well-understood global design solutions. The development of complex business applications is now focused on an assembly of components available on a local area network or on the net. These components must be localized and identified in terms of available services and communication protocol before any request. The first part of the article introduces the base concepts of components and middleware while the following sections describe the different up-todate models of communication and interaction and the last section shows how different models can communicate among themselves.

Keywords: Interoperability, component packaging, communication technology, heterogeneous platform, component interface, middleware.

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Authors: Zhang Xiuping, Yang Guowu, Zheng Desheng

Abstract:

Embedded hardware simulator is a valuable computeraided tool for embedded application development. This paper focuses on the ARM926EJ-S MMU, builds state transition models and formally verifies critical properties for the models. The state transition models include loading instruction model, reading data model, and writing data model. The properties of the models are described by CTL specification language, and they are verified in VIS. The results obtained in VIS demonstrate that the critical properties of MMU are satisfied in the state transition models. The correct models can be used to implement the MMU component in our simulator. In the end of this paper, the experimental results show that the MMU can successfully accomplish memory access requests from CPU.

Keywords: MMU, State transition, Model, Simulation.

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Authors: Ventura Assuncao

Abstract:

In automotive systems almost all steps concerning the calibration of several control systems, e.g., low idle governor or boost pressure governor, are made with the vehicle because the timeto- production and cost requirements on the projects do not allow for the vehicle analysis necessary to build reliable models. Here is presented a procedure using parametric and NN (neural network) models that enables the generation of vehicle system models based on normal ECU engine control unit) vehicle measurements. These models are locally valid and permit pre and follow-up calibrations so that, only the final calibrations have to be done with the vehicle.

Keywords: Automotive systems, neuro-hybrid models, demodulator, nonlinear systems, identification, and neural networks.

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Authors: Mohamed A. Khlifi, Badr M. Alshammari

Abstract:

This paper discusses the general methods to saturation in the steady-state, two axis (d & q) frame models of synchronous machines. In particular, the important role of the magnetic coupling between the d-q axes (cross-magnetizing phenomenon), is demonstrated. For that purpose, distinct methods of saturation modeling of dumper synchronous machine with cross-saturation are identified, and detailed models synthesis in d-q axes. A number of models are given in the final developed form. The procedure and the novel models are verified by a critical application to prove the validity of the method and the equivalence between all developed models is reported. Advantages of some of the models over the existing ones and their applicability are discussed.

Keywords: Cross-magnetizing, models synthesis, synchronous machine, saturated modeling, state-space vectors.

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Recurrent event data is a special type of multivariate survival data. Dynamic and frailty models are one of the approaches that dealt with this kind of data. A comparison between these two models is studied using the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes as a way of assessing the fit of the two models based on the Aalen additive regression model. Here we found both approaches took heterogeneity into account and produce residual standard deviations close to each other both in the simulation study and in the real data set.

Keywords: Dynamic, frailty, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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Authors: Mohammed Erritali

Abstract:

The growth in the volume of text data such as books and articles in libraries for centuries has imposed to establish effective mechanisms to locate them. Early techniques such as abstraction, indexing and the use of classification categories have marked the birth of a new field of research called "Information Retrieval". Information Retrieval (IR) can be defined as the task of defining models and systems whose purpose is to facilitate access to a set of documents in electronic form (corpus) to allow a user to find the relevant ones for him, that is to say, the contents which matches with the information needs of the user. Most of the models of information retrieval use a specific data structure to index a corpus which is called "inverted file" or "reverse index". This inverted file collects information on all terms over the corpus documents specifying the identifiers of documents that contain the term in question, the frequency of each term in the documents of the corpus, the positions of the occurrences of the word... In this paper we use an oriented object database (db4o) instead of the inverted file, that is to say, instead to search a term in the inverted file, we will search it in the db4o database. The purpose of this work is to make a comparative study to see if the oriented object databases may be competing for the inverse index in terms of access speed and resource consumption using a large volume of data.

Keywords: Information Retrieval, indexation, oriented object database (db4o), inverted file.

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Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, Kyoung-Jae Kim

Abstract:

Corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has been one of the attractive research topics in the literature. In recent years, multiclass classification models such as artificial neural network (ANN) or multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have become a very appealing machine learning approaches due to their good performance. However, most of them have only focused on classifying samples into nominal categories, thus the unique characteristic of the credit rating - ordinality - has been seldom considered in their approaches. This study proposes new types of ANN and MSVM classifiers, which are named OMANN and OMSVM respectively. OMANN and OMSVM are designed to extend binary ANN or SVM classifiers by applying ordinal pairwise partitioning (OPP) strategy. These models can handle ordinal multiple classes efficiently and effectively. To validate the usefulness of these two models, we applied them to the real-world bond rating case. We compared the results of our models to those of conventional approaches. The experimental results showed that our proposed models improve classification accuracy in comparison to typical multiclass classification techniques with the reduced computation resource.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Corporate credit rating, Support vector machines, Ordinal pairwise partitioning

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Authors: Danielle Shackley, Yetunde Folajimi

Abstract:

As more people turn to the internet seeking health related information, there is more risk of finding false, inaccurate, or dangerous information. Sentiment analysis is a natural language processing technique that assigns polarity scores of text, ranging from positive, neutral and negative. In this research, we evaluate the weight of a sentiment analysis feature added to fake health news classification models. The dataset consists of existing reliably labeled health article headlines that were supplemented with health information collected about COVID-19 from social media sources. We started with data preprocessing, tested out various vectorization methods such as Count and TFIDF vectorization. We implemented 3 Naive Bayes classifier models, including Bernoulli, Multinomial and Complement. To test the weight of the sentiment analysis feature on the dataset, we created benchmark Naive Bayes classification models without sentiment analysis, and those same models were reproduced and the feature was added. We evaluated using the precision and accuracy scores. The Bernoulli initial model performed with 90% precision and 75.2% accuracy, while the model supplemented with sentiment labels performed with 90.4% precision and stayed constant at 75.2% accuracy. Our results show that the addition of sentiment analysis did not improve model precision by a wide margin; while there was no evidence of improvement in accuracy, we had a 1.9% improvement margin of the precision score with the Complement model. Future expansion of this work could include replicating the experiment process, and substituting the Naive Bayes for a deep learning neural network model.

Keywords: Sentiment analysis, Naive Bayes model, natural language processing, topic analysis, fake health news classification model.

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Authors: Carlo Bellettini, Alessandro Marchetto, Andrea Trentini

Abstract:

Web applications have become complex and crucial for many firms, especially when combined with areas such as CRM (Customer Relationship Management) and BPR (Business Process Reengineering). The scientific community has focused attention to Web application design, development, analysis, testing, by studying and proposing methodologies and tools. Static and dynamic techniques may be used to analyze existing Web applications. The use of traditional static source code analysis may be very difficult, for the presence of dynamically generated code, and for the multi-language nature of the Web. Dynamic analysis may be useful, but it has an intrinsic limitation, the low number of program executions used to extract information. Our reverse engineering analysis, used into our WAAT (Web Applications Analysis and Testing) project, applies mutational techniques in order to exploit server side execution engines to accomplish part of the dynamic analysis. This paper studies the effects of mutation source code analysis applied to Web software to build application models. Mutation-based generated models may contain more information then necessary, so we need a pruning mechanism.

Keywords: Validation, Dynamic Analysis, MutationAnalysis, Reverse Engineering, Web Applications

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: Deep learning, long-short-term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting.

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Authors: Elena Ezhova, Vadim Mottl, Olga Krasotkina

Abstract:

The problem of estimating time-varying regression is inevitably concerned with the necessity to choose the appropriate level of model volatility - ranging from the full stationarity of instant regression models to their absolute independence of each other. In the stationary case the number of regression coefficients to be estimated equals that of regressors, whereas the absence of any smoothness assumptions augments the dimension of the unknown vector by the factor of the time-series length. The Akaike Information Criterion is a commonly adopted means of adjusting a model to the given data set within a succession of nested parametric model classes, but its crucial restriction is that the classes are rigidly defined by the growing integer-valued dimension of the unknown vector. To make the Kullback information maximization principle underlying the classical AIC applicable to the problem of time-varying regression estimation, we extend it onto a wider class of data models in which the dimension of the parameter is fixed, but the freedom of its values is softly constrained by a family of continuously nested a priori probability distributions.

Keywords: Time varying regression, time-volatility of regression coefficients, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Kullback information maximization principle.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: Time-series forecasting, weather modeling.

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Authors: D. I. De Souza, G. P. Azevedo, R. Rocha

Abstract:

In this paper we will develop a sequential life test approach applied to a modified low alloy-high strength steel part used in highway overpasses in Brazil.We will consider two possible underlying sampling distributions: the Normal and theInverse Weibull models. The minimum life will be considered equal to zero. We will use the two underlying models to analyze a fatigue life test situation, comparing the results obtained from both.Since a major chemical component of this low alloy-high strength steel part has been changed, there is little information available about the possible values that the parameters of the corresponding Normal and Inverse Weibull underlying sampling distributions could have. To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of these two sampling models we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. We will also develop a truncation mechanism for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models. We will provide rules to truncate a sequential life testing situation making one of the two possible decisions at the moment of truncation; that is, accept or reject the null hypothesis H0. An example will develop the proposed truncated sequential life testing approach for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models.

Keywords: Sequential life testing, normal and inverse Weibull models, maximum likelihood approach, truncation mechanism.

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Authors: Norfadzila, S.W.A., Balakrishnan, V., A. Abrizah

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to propose an integrated consumer health informatics utilization framework that can be used to gauge the online health information needs and usage patterns among Malaysian women. The proposed framework was developed based on four different theories/models: Use and Gratification Theory, Technology Acceptance 3 Model, Health Belief Model, and Multi-level Model of Information Seeking. The relevant constructs and research hypotheses are also presented in this paper. The framework will be tested in order for it to be used successfully to identify Malaysian women-s preferences of online health information resources and health information seeking activities.

Keywords: Consumer Health Informatics, Consumer Preferences, Information Needs and Usage Patterns, Online Health Information, Women Studies

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Authors: Fernando Alonso, Rafael Fernandez, Sonia Frutos, Javier Soriano

Abstract:

CIM is the standard formalism for modeling management information developed by the Distributed Management Task Force (DMTF) in the context of its WBEM proposal, designed to provide a conceptual view of the managed environment. In this paper, we propose the inclusion of formal knowledge representation techniques, based on Description Logics (DLs) and the Web Ontology Language (OWL), in CIM-based conceptual modeling, and then we examine the benefits of such a decision. The proposal is specified as a CIM metamodel level mapping to a highly expressive subset of DLs capable of capturing all the semantics of the models. The paper shows how the proposed mapping provides CIM diagrams with precise semantics and can be used for automatic reasoning about the management information models, as a design aid, by means of newgeneration CASE tools, thanks to the use of state-of-the-art automatic reasoning systems that support the proposed logic and use algorithms that are sound and complete with respect to the semantics. Such a CASE tool framework has been developed by the authors and its architecture is also introduced. The proposed formalization is not only useful at design time, but also at run time through the use of rational autonomous agents, in response to a need recently recognized by the DMTF.

Keywords: CIM, Knowledge-based Information Models, OntologyLanguages, OWL, Description Logics, Integrated Network Management, Intelligent Agents, Automatic Reasoning Techniques.

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Authors: Omer F. Cansiz, Said M. Easa

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is mainly to predict collision frequency on the horizontal tangents combined with vertical curves using artificial neural network methods. The proposed ANN models are compared with existing regression models. First, the variables that affect collision frequency were investigated. It was found that only the annual average daily traffic, section length, access density, the rate of vertical curvature, smaller curve radius before and after the tangent were statistically significant according to related combinations. Second, three statistical models (negative binomial, zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) were developed using the significant variables for three alignment combinations. Third, ANN models are developed by applying the same variables for each combination. The results clearly show that the ANN models have the lowest mean square error value than those of the statistical models. Similarly, the AIC values of the ANN models are smaller to those of the regression models for all the combinations. Consequently, the ANN models have better statistical performances than statistical models for estimating collision frequency. The ANN models presented in this paper are recommended for evaluating the safety impacts 3D alignment elements on horizontal tangents.

Keywords: Collision frequency, horizontal tangent, 3D two-lane highway, negative binomial, zero inflated Poisson, artificial neural network.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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Authors: Alfred L. Guiffrida

Abstract:

A review of the literature on supply chain delivery models which use delivery windows to measure delivery performance is presented. The review herein serves to meet the following objectives: (i) provide a synthesis of previously published literature on supply chain delivery performance models, (ii) provide in one paper a consolidation of research that can serve as a single source to keep researchers up to date with the research developments in supply chain delivery models, and (iii) identify gaps in the modeling of supply chain delivery performance which could stimulate new research agendas.

Keywords: Delivery performance, Delivery window, Supply chain delivery models, Supply chain performance.

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Authors: F. Rahnamay Roodposhti, M. Falah Shams, H. Kordlouie

Abstract:

The aim of the article is extending and developing econometrics and network structure based methods which are able to distinguish price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. The principal goal of the present study is to offer model for approximating price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. In order to do so by applying separation method a sample consisting of 397 companies accepted at Tehran stock exchange were selected and information related to their price and volume of trades during years 2001 until 2009 were collected and then through performing runs test, skewness test and duration correlative test the selected companies were divided into 2 sets of manipulated and non manipulated companies. In the next stage by investigating cumulative return process and volume of trades in manipulated companies, the date of starting price manipulation was specified and in this way the logit model, artificial neural network, multiple discriminant analysis and by using information related to size of company, clarity of information, ratio of P/E and liquidity of stock one year prior price manipulation; a model for forecasting price manipulation of stocks of companies present in Tehran stock exchange were designed. At the end the power of forecasting models were studied by using data of test set. Whereas the power of forecasting logit model for test set was 92.1%, for artificial neural network was 94.1% and multi audit analysis model was 90.2%; therefore all of the 3 aforesaid models has high power to forecast price manipulation and there is no considerable difference among forecasting power of these 3 models.

Keywords: Price Manipulation, Liquidity, Size of Company, Floating Stock, Information Clarity

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Authors: Abdelghafour Galadi

Abstract:

In this paper, accurate power MOSFET models including quasi-saturation effect are presented. These models have no internal node voltages determined by the circuit simulator and use one JFET or one depletion mode MOSFET transistors controlled by an “effective” gate voltage taking into account the quasi-saturation effect. The proposed models achieve accurate simulation results with an average error percentage less than 9%, which is an improvement of 21 percentage points compared to the commonly used standard power MOSFET model. In addition, the models can be integrated in any available commercial circuit simulators by using their analytical equations. A description of the models will be provided along with the parameter extraction procedure.

Keywords: Power MOSFET, drift layer, quasi-saturation effect, SPICE model, circuit simulation.

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Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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Authors: Ali Mamizadeh, Ires Iskender

Abstract:

The most important parameter in transformers life expectancy is the hot-spot temperature level which accelerates the rate of aging of the insulation. The aim of this paper is to present thermal models for transformers loaded at prefabricated MV/LV transformer substations and outdoor situations. The hot-spot temperature of transformers is studied using their top-oil temperature rise models. The thermal models proposed for hot-spot and top-oil temperatures of different operating situations are compared. Since the thermal transfer is different for indoor and outdoor transformers considering their operating conditions, their hot-spot thermal models differ from each other. The proposed thermal models are verified by the results obtained from the experiments carried out on a typical 1600 kVA, 30 /0.4 kV, ONAN transformer for both indoor and outdoor situations.

Keywords: Hot-spot Temperature, Dynamic Thermal Model, MV/LV Prefabricated, Oil Immersed Transformers

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Authors: M. A. Basunia

Abstract:

Thirty three re-wetting tests were conducted at different combinations of temperatures (5.7- 46.30C) and relative humidites (48.2-88.6%) with barley. Two most commonly used thinlayer drying and rewetting models i.e. Page and Diffusion were compared for their ability to the fit the experimental re-wetting data based on the standard error of estimate (SEE) of the measured and simulated moisture contents. The comparison shows both the Page and Diffusion models fit the re-wetting experimental data of barley well. The average SEE values for the Page and Diffusion models were 0.176 % d.b. and 0.199 % d.b., respectively. The Page and Diffusion models were found to be most suitable equations, to describe the thin-layer re-wetting characteristics of barley over a typically five day re-wetting. These two models can be used for the simulation of deep-bed re-wetting of barley occurring during ventilated storage and deep bed drying.

Keywords: Thin-layer, barley, re-wetting parameters, temperature, relative humidity.

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Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract:

The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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Authors: Cândida M. Pereira, Amílcar L. Ramalho, Jorge A. Ambrósio

Abstract:

In the numerical solution of the forward dynamics of a multibody system, the positions and velocities of the bodies in the system are obtained first. With the information of the system state variables at each time step, the internal and external forces acting on the system are obtained by appropriate contact force models if the continuous contact method is used instead of a discrete contact method. The local deformation of the bodies in contact, represented by penetration, is used to compute the contact force. The ability and suitability with current cylindrical contact force models to describe the contact between bodies with cylindrical geometries with particular focus on internal contacting geometries involving low clearances and high loads simultaneously is discussed in this paper. A comparative assessment of the performance of each model under analysis for different contact conditions, in particular for very different penetration and clearance values, is presented. It is demonstrated that some models represent a rough approximation to describe the conformal contact between cylindrical geometries because contact forces are underestimated.

Keywords: Clearance joints, Contact mechanics, Contact dynamics, Internal cylindrical contact, Multibody dynamics.

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