Search results for: Cancer risk

Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: Childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors.

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Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

Abstract:

FMEA has been used for several years and proved its efficiency for system’s risk analysis due to failures. Risk priority number found in FMEA is used to rank failure modes that may occur in a system. There are some guidelines in the literature to assign the values of FMEA components known as Severity, Occurrence and Detection. This paper propose a method to assign the value for occurrence in more realistic manner representing the state of the system under study rather than depending totally on the experience of the analyst. This method uses the hazard function of a system to determine the value of occurrence depending on the behavior of the hazard being constant, increasing or decreasing.

Keywords: FMEA, Hazard Function, Risk Priority Number.

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Authors: Wojciech Rejchel

Abstract:

The problem of ranking (rank regression) has become popular in the machine learning community. This theory relates to problems, in which one has to predict (guess) the order between objects on the basis of vectors describing their observed features. In many ranking algorithms a convex loss function is used instead of the 0-1 loss. It makes these procedures computationally efficient. Hence, convex risk minimizers and their statistical properties are investigated in this paper. Fast rates of convergence are obtained under conditions, that look similarly to the ones from the classification theory. Methods used in this paper come from the theory of U-processes as well as empirical processes.

Keywords: Convex loss function, empirical risk minimization, empirical process, U-process, boosting, euclidean family.

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

Abstract:

This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization.

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Authors: P. Bountris, E. Farantatos, N. Apostolou

Abstract:

Autofluorescence (AF) bronchoscopy is an established method to detect dysplasia and carcinoma in situ (CIS). For this reason the “Sotiria" Hospital uses the Karl Storz D-light system. However, in early tumor stages the visualization is not that obvious. With the help of a PC, we analyzed the color images we captured by developing certain tools in Matlab®. We used statistical methods based on texture analysis, signal processing methods based on Gabor models and conversion algorithms between devicedependent color spaces. Our belief is that we reduced the error made by the naked eye. The tools we implemented improve the quality of patients' life.

Keywords: Bronchoscopy, digital image processing, lung cancer, texture analysis.

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: Decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle.

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Authors: Loredana G. Marcu, David Marcu, Sanda M. Filip

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Advanced head and neck cancers are aggressive tumours, which require aggressive treatment. Treatment efficiency is often hindered by cancer cell repopulation during radiotherapy, which is due to various mechanisms triggered by the loss of tumour cells and involves both stem and differentiated cells. The aim of the current paper is to present in silico simulations of radiotherapy schedules on a virtual head and neck tumour grown with biologically realistic kinetic parameters. Using the linear quadratic formalism of cell survival after radiotherapy, altered fractionation schedules employing various treatment breaks for normal tissue recovery are simulated and repopulation mechanism implemented in order to evaluate the impact of various cancer cell contribution on tumour behaviour during irradiation. The model has shown that the timing of treatment breaks is an important factor influencing tumour control in rapidly proliferating tissues such as squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck. Furthermore, not only stem cells but also differentiated cells, via the mechanism of abortive division, can contribute to malignant cell repopulation during treatment.

Keywords: Radiation, tumour repopulation, squamous cell carcinoma, stem cell.

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Authors: Paul W. Murray, Marco Barajas

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Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.

Keywords: Multiple Regression Analysis, Supply Chain Management, Risk Assessment, Vendor Selection.

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Authors: P. Beraldi, M. E. Bruni

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Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random variables and we propose two different models defined according to a neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on his risk aversion degree.

Keywords: DEA, Stochastic Programming, Ex-ante evaluation technique, Conditional Value at Risk.

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Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

Abstract:

This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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Authors: Chan-Sik Kim, Jong-Seong Kim, Se Won Lee, Hoo-Gon Choi

Abstract:

In rapidly changing market environment, firms are investing a lot of time and resources into new product development (NPD) projects to make profit and to obtain competitive advantage. However, failure rate of NPD projects is becoming high due to various internal and external risks which hinder successful NPD projects. To reduce the failure rate, it is critical that risks have to be managed effectively and efficiently through good strategy, and treated by optimal responses to minimize risk cost. Four strategies are adopted to handle the risks in this study. The optimal responses are characterized by high reduction of risk costs with high efficiency. This study suggests a framework to decide the optimal responses considering the core risks, risk costs, response efficiency and response costs for successful NPD projects. Both binary particles warm optimization (BPSO) and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) methods are mainly used in the framework. Although several limitations exist in use for real industries, the frame work shows good strength for handling the risks with highly scientific ways through an example.

Keywords: NPD projects, risk cost, strategy, optimal responses, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: N. Lassouaoui, L. Hamami, N. Nouali

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The tracking allows to detect the tumor affections of cervical cancer, it is particularly complex and consuming time, because it consists in seeking some abnormal cells among a cluster of normal cells. In this paper, we present our proposed computer system for helping the doctors in tracking the cervical cancer. Knowing that the diagnosis of the malignancy is based in the set of atypical morphological details of all cells, herein, we present an unsupervised genetic algorithm for the separation of cell components since the diagnosis is doing by analysis of the core and the cytoplasm. We give also the various algorithms used for computing the morphological characteristics of cells (Ratio core/cytoplasm, cellular deformity, ...) necessary for the recognition of illness.

Keywords: Cervical cell, morphological analysis, recognition, segmentation.

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Authors: Hritwik Ghosh, Irfan Sadiq Rahat, Sachi Nandan Mohanty, J. V. R. Ravindra, Abdus Sobur

Abstract:

In the rapidly evolving landscape of medical diagnostics, the early detection and accurate classification of skin cancer remain paramount for effective treatment outcomes. This research delves into the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI), specifically deep learning (DL), as a tool for discerning and categorizing various skin conditions. Utilizing a diverse dataset of 3,000 images, representing nine distinct skin conditions, we confront the inherent challenge of class imbalance. This imbalance, where conditions like melanomas are over-represented, is addressed by incorporating class weights during the model training phase, ensuring an equitable representation of all conditions in the learning process. Our approach presents a hybrid model, amalgamating the strengths of two renowned convolutional neural networks (CNNs), VGG16 and ResNet50. These networks, pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset, are adept at extracting intricate features from images. By synergizing these models, our research aims to capture a holistic set of features, thereby bolstering classification performance. Preliminary findings underscore the hybrid model's superiority over individual models, showcasing its prowess in feature extraction and classification. Moreover, the research emphasizes the significance of rigorous data pre-processing, including image resizing, color normalization, and segmentation, in ensuring data quality and model reliability. In essence, this study illuminates the promising role of AI and DL in revolutionizing skin cancer diagnostics, offering insights into its potential applications in broader medical domains.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, skin cancer, dermatology, convolutional neural networks, image classification, computer vision, healthcare technology, cancer detection, medical imaging.

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Authors: Abiodun M. Lawal, Benjamin O. Olley

Abstract:

Long Distance Truck Drivers (LDTDs) have been found to be a high risk group in the spread of HIV/AIDS globally; perhaps, due to their high Sexual Risk Behaviours (SRBs). Interventions for reducing SRBs in trucking population have not been fully exploited. A quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design was used to assess the efficacy of psycho-education and behavioural skills training in reducing SRBs among LDTDs. Sixteen drivers rivers were randomly assigned into either experimental or control groups using balloting technique. Questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection. Repeated measures t-test and independent t-test were used to test hypotheses. Intervention had significant effect on the SRBs among LDTDs at post-test (t{7}= 6.01, p<.01) and at follow up (t{7} = 6.42, p<.01). No significant difference in sexual risk behaviour of LDTDs at post-test and at follow-up stage. Similarly, intervention had significant effects on sexual risk behaviour at post-test (t {14} = - 4.69, p<.05) and at follow-up (t {14} = -9.56, p<.05) respectively. At post-test and follow-up stages, drivers in experimental group reported reduced SRBs than those in control group. Drivers in experimental group reported lower sexual risk behaviour a week after intervention as well as at three months follow-up than those in control group. It is concluded that HIV/AIDS preventive intervention that provides the necessary informational and behavioural skills content can significantly impact long distance truck drivers’ sexual risk behaviours.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS interventions, Long distance truck drivers, Nigeria, Sexual risk behaviours.

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Authors: A. Asambe

Abstract:

A study was conducted to determine the level of compliance with sanitary measures in piggeries, and awareness and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were distributed to 74 respondents consisting of piggery owners and attendants in different piggeries across 12 LGAs to collect data for this study. Sanitary measures in piggeries were observed to be generally very poor, though respondents admitted being aware of ASF. Piggeries located within a 1 km radius of a slaughter slab (OR=9.2, 95% CI - 3.0-28.8), piggeries near refuse dump sites (OR=3.0, 95% CI - 1.0-9.5) and piggeries where farm workers wear their work clothes outside of the piggery premises (OR=0.2, 95% CI - 0.1-0.7) showed higher chances of ASFV infection and were significantly associated (p < 0.0001), (p < 0.05) and (p < 0.01), and were identified as potential risk factors. The study concluded that pigs in Benue State are still at risk of an ASF outbreak. Proper sanitary and hygienic practices is advocated and emphasized in piggeries, while routine surveillance for ASFV antibodies in pigs in Benue State is strongly recommended to provide a reliable reference data base to plan for the prevention of any devastating ASF outbreak.

Keywords: African swine fever, awareness, piggery, risk factors, sanitary measures.

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Authors: O. O. Olawusi-Peters, K. I. Adejugbagbe

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The concentration of heavy metal (Cd, Pb, Fe, Zn, Cu) in Clarias gariepinus collected from fish markets; Fanibi (Station I) and Fiwasaye (Station II) in Akure metropolis, Ondo state, Nigeria were investigated to ascertain the safety for the consumers. 60 samples were collected from the two markets in three batches (I, II, III) for a period of six months and analyzed for heavy metals in the gills and muscles of the fish. Also, the Health Risk Index (HRI) was used to determine the health risk of these metals to the consumer. The results showed that the investigated metal concentration was higher in station I than station II, except Pb having higher concentration in station II than station I. In both stations, the highest concentration of Fe was recorded in the gills (12.60 ± 1.51; 6.94 ± 1.38) and muscles (3.72 ± 0.09; 3.86 ± 0.33) of samples in batch I. Also, the HRI revealed that consumption of Clarias gariepinus from these study areas did not pose any health risk (HRI < 1). In addition, concentrations of the heavy metals were all below the permissible limits recommended by FAO/WHO.

Keywords: Health risk index, heavy metals, Clarias gariepinus, Akure metropolis, fish monger.

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis that is a quantitative study of the disciplines of science based on published literature to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The publication under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: Food Supply Chain, Risk Assessment, Scientometrics, Web of science.

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Authors: M. Hoxha, V. Capra, C. Buccellati, A. Sala, C. Cena, R. Fruttero, M. Bertinaria, G. E. Rovati

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Today COXIBs are used in the treatment of arthritis and many other painful conditions in selected patients with high gastrointestinal risk and low cardiovascular (CV) risk. Previously, we have identified an unexpected mechanism of action of a traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) (diclofenac) and a specific inhibitor of cyclooxygenase-2 (COXIB) (lumiracoxib) demonstrating that they possess weak competitive antagonism at the thromboxane receptor (TP). We hypothesize that modifying the structure of a known COXIB so that it becomes also a more potent TP antagonist will preserve the anti-inflammatory and gastrointestinal safety typical of COXIBs and prevent the CV risk associated with long term therapy.

Keywords: Cyclooxygenase, inflammation, lumiracoxib, thromboxane A2.

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Authors: Mustapha Achibane, Imane Allam

Abstract:

Since the nineties, all Moroccan banking institutions have to respect an arsenal of prudential ratios. The respect of these prudential measures aims to ensure the financial system stability. In order to do so, regulatory authorities tried to reduce the financial and operational risks incurred by the banking entities. Meanwhile, regulatory authorities demanded a balance sheet management work from banks. They also asked them to establish a management control system to manage operational risk, as well as an effort in terms of incurred risk-based commitments. Therefore, the prudential approach has a macroeconomic nature and it is presented as a determinant of the operational, microeconomic approach. This operational approach takes the form of a strategy that each banking entity must develop to manage the different banking risks. This study seeks to analyze the problem of risk management between the prudential and the operational approaches. It was processed through a literature review followed by an analysis of the Moroccan banking sector’s performance. At first, we will reconcile the inductive logic and then, the analytical one. The first approach consists of analyzing the phenomenon from a normative and conceptual perspective, while the second one will consist of considering the Moroccan banking system and analyzing the behavior of Moroccan banking entities in terms of risk management and performance. The results identified a favorable growth in terms of performance, despite the huge provisioning effort made to meet the international standards and the harmonization of the regulations.

Keywords: Banking performance, financial intermediation, operational approach, prudential standards, risk management.

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Authors: Milton Montejano Castillo, Tarsicio Pastrana Salcedo

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Based on the hypothesis that disaster risk is constructed socially and historically, this article shows the importance of keeping alive the historical memory of disaster by means of architectural and urban heritage conservation. This is illustrated with three examples of Latin American World Heritage cities, where disasters like floods and earthquakes have shaped urban form. Therefore, the study of urban form or "Urban Morphology" is proposed as a tool to understand and analyze urban transformations with the documentation of the occurrence of disasters. Lessons learned from such cities may be useful to reduce disasters risk in contemporary built environments.

Keywords: Conservation, disaster risk reduction, urban morphology, world heritage.

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Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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Authors: Sara Bragança, Eric Costa

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The work presented in this paper was performed for a workstation of an assembly section in a company that manufactures radio modules and air conditioning for cars. After performing a workstation analysis and a questionnaire to the operators it was possible to understand the need to investigate the risk of musculoskeletal disorders originated from both the handling of loads as the incorrect dimensioning of the workstation. Regarding the handling of loads the NIOSH Equation was used and it was verified that there was no risk of musculoskeletal disorders. As the operators expressed their lack of satisfaction regarding back pains due to posture adopted they were established the appropriate dimensions (to satisfy 97.5% of the population and using the table of anthropometric data of the Portuguese population) for the workstation and it was proposed the availability of a chair for the workers.

Keywords: Anthropometry, Musculoskeletal disorders, NIOSH Equation.

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Authors: Yu-Chen Lin, Tzong-Yeang Lee, Hung-Chih Shih

Abstract:

The development of sustainable utilization water resources is crucial. The ecological environment and water resources systems form the foundation of the existence and development of the social economy. The urban ecological support system depends on these resources as well. This research studies the vulnerability, criticality, and risk of climate change on water supply and demand in the main administrative district of the Taijiang Area (Tainan City). Based on the two situations set in this paper and various factors (indexes), this research adopts two kinds of weights (equal and AHP) to conduct the calculation and establish the water supply and demand risk map for the target year 2039. According to the risk analysis result, which is based on equal weight, only one district belongs to a high-grade district (Grade 4). Based on the AHP weight, 16 districts belong to a high-grade or higher-grade district (Grades 4 and 5), and from among them, two districts belong to the highest grade (Grade 5). These results show that the risk level of water supply and demand in cities is higher than that in towns. The government generally gives more attention to the adjustment strategy in the “cities." However, it should also provide proper adjustment strategies for the “towns" to be able to cope with the risks of water supply and demand.

Keywords: Climate change, risk, vulnerability, water supply and demand.

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system.

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Authors: Benmoussa Rachid, Deguio Roland, Dubois Sebastien, Rasovska Ivana

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Implementation of LARG (Lean, Agile, Resilient, Green) practices in the supply chain management is a complex task mainly because ecological, economical and operational goals are usually in conflict. To implement these LARG practices successfully, companies’ need relevant decision making tools allowing processes performance control and improvement strategies visibility. To contribute to this issue, this work tries to answer the following research question: How to master performance and anticipate problems in supply chain LARG practices implementation? To answer this question, a risk management approach (RMA) is adopted. Indeed, the proposed RMA aims basically to assess the ability of a supply chain, guided by “Lean, Green and Achievement” performance goals, to face “agility and resilience risk” factors. To proof its relevance, a logistics academic case study based on simulation is used to illustrate all its stages. It shows particularly how to build the “LARG risk map” which is the main output of this approach.

Keywords: Risk approach, lean supply chain, agile supply chain, green supply chain, resilient supply chain.

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Authors: Guillermo Vilalta, Félix Nieto, Carlos Vaquero, José A. Vilalta

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Abdominal aortic aneurysms rupture (AAAs) is one of the main causes of death in the world. This is a very complex phenomenon that usually occurs “without previous warning". Currently, criteria to assess the aneurysm rupture risk (peak diameter and growth rate) can not be considered as reliable indicators. In a first approach, the main geometric parameters of aneurysms have been linked into five biomechanical factors. These are combined to obtain a dimensionless rupture risk index, RI(t), which has been validated preliminarily with a clinical case and others from literature. This quantitative indicator is easy to understand, it allows estimating the aneurysms rupture risks and it is expected to be able to identify the one in aneurysm whose peak diameter is less than the threshold value. Based on initial results, a broader study has begun with twelve patients from the Clinic Hospital of Valladolid-Spain, which are submitted to periodic follow-up examinations.

Keywords: AAA, rupture risk prediction, biomechanical factors, AAA geometric characterization.

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Authors: Sandeep Chandana, Rene V. Mayorga, Christine W. Chan

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This article outlines conceptualization and implementation of an intelligent system capable of extracting knowledge from databases. Use of hybridized features of both the Rough and Fuzzy Set theory render the developed system flexibility in dealing with discreet as well as continuous datasets. A raw data set provided to the system, is initially transformed in a computer legible format followed by pruning of the data set. The refined data set is then processed through various Rough Set operators which enable discovery of parameter relationships and interdependencies. The discovered knowledge is automatically transformed into a rule base expressed in Fuzzy terms. Two exemplary cancer repository datasets (for Breast and Lung Cancer) have been used to test and implement the proposed framework.

Keywords: Knowledge Extraction, Fuzzy Sets, Rough Sets, Neuro–Fuzzy Systems, Databases

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Authors: A. Szabó Nagy, J. Szabó, Zs. Csanádi, J. Erdős

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An assessment of the air quality of Győr (Hungary) was performed by determining the ambient concentrations of PM10-bound carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (cPAHs) in different seasons. A high volume sampler was used for the collection of ambient aerosol particles, and the associated cPAH compounds (benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), benzo[a]anthracene, benzofluoranthene isomers, indeno[123-cd]pyrene and dibenzo[ah]anthracene) were analyzed by a gas chromatographic method. Higher mean concentrations of total cPAHs were detected in samples collected in winter (9.62 ng/m³) and autumn (2.69 ng/m³) compared to spring (1.05 ng/m³) and summer (0.21 ng/m³). The calculated BaP toxic equivalent concentrations have also reflected that the local population appears to be exposed to significantly higher cancer risk in the heating seasons. Moreover, the concentration levels of cPAHs determined in this study were compared to other Hungarian urban sites.

Keywords: Air, carcinogenic, PAH, PM10.

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Authors: A. Gruzdz, A. Ihnatowicz, J. Siddiqi, B. Akhgar

Abstract:

MATCH project [1] entitle the development of an automatic diagnosis system that aims to support treatment of colon cancer diseases by discovering mutations that occurs to tumour suppressor genes (TSGs) and contributes to the development of cancerous tumours. The constitution of the system is based on a) colon cancer clinical data and b) biological information that will be derived by data mining techniques from genomic and proteomic sources The core mining module will consist of the popular, well tested hybrid feature extraction methods, and new combined algorithms, designed especially for the project. Elements of rough sets, evolutionary computing, cluster analysis, self-organization maps and association rules will be used to discover the annotations between genes, and their influence on tumours [2]-[11]. The methods used to process the data have to address their high complexity, potential inconsistency and problems of dealing with the missing values. They must integrate all the useful information necessary to solve the expert's question. For this purpose, the system has to learn from data, or be able to interactively specify by a domain specialist, the part of the knowledge structure it needs to answer a given query. The program should also take into account the importance/rank of the particular parts of data it analyses, and adjusts the used algorithms accordingly.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, gene expression, ontology, selforganizingmaps.

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Markov Chain, regenerative processes, risk models, ruin probability, strong stability.

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